COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Soft Commodities Speculators drop their Coffee bets to 158-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar & Cocoa top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower overall this week as four out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other seven markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (66,012 contracts) with Cocoa (13,895 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,282 contracts) and Lean Hogs (897 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-48,646 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,485 contracts), Soybeans (-11,005 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,513 contracts), Coffee (-9,471 contracts), Wheat (-5,267 contracts) and Cotton (-364 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

A highlight of this week’s COT soft commodities data is the continued decline of the Coffee futures positioning that have hit their first net bearish positions since July of 2020. Large speculators dropped their weekly bets for Coffee for the seventh straight week this week and for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks. Coffee bets have now fallen by a total of -58,834 contracts over just these past seven weeks and are in an overall bearish position for the second straight week.

The decline in spec bets has happened very rapidly as bullish positions were as high as +40,000 contracts on November 1st while the position leveled at a total net position of -14,154 contracts through Tuesday. This week’s net position marks the lowest speculator standing since November 5th of 2019, a span of 158 weeks.

Coffee prices have been on a steep drop as well with futures prices falling by over -35 percent since late-August. Helping put a dent in prices is an improved outlook for production out of Brazil that is seen as positive for the coffee harvest.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,469,437	3	278,267	18	-307,395	81	29,128	48
Gold	495,171	17	126,269	25	-134,308	78	8,039	0
Silver	141,623	14	17,607	34	-29,424	67	11,817	27
Copper	168,962	9	9,821	44	-13,583	56	3,762	47
Palladium	8,793	14	-1,072	17	1,231	81	-159	32
Platinum	63,391	27	22,544	39	-27,037	62	4,493	28
Natural Gas	978,425	6	-152,114	33	120,830	69	31,284	54
Brent	139,080	4	-25,194	69	20,782	28	4,412	69
Heating Oil	275,254	26	25,660	80	-46,933	21	21,273	72
Soybeans	616,094	9	76,804	37	-49,046	72	-27,758	24
Corn	1,421,555	22	252,908	62	-211,862	42	-41,046	19
Coffee	191,743	6	-14,154	0	11,840	100	2,314	32
Sugar	832,522	26	156,194	59	-201,779	39	45,585	64
Wheat	350,091	27	-22,481	0	29,310	100	-6,829	75

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (85.8 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position with a score above 80 percent. Soybean Oil (75.3 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores followed by Corn (62.3 percent) and Sugar (59.4 percent).

On the downside, Coffee (0.0 percent) joins Wheat (0.0 percent) at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (68.6 percent)
Sugar (59.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (41.7 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.2 percent)
Soybeans (37.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (85.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.0 percent)
Live Cattle (39.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (51.3 percent)
Cotton (24.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (24.4 percent)
Cocoa (42.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.7 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil, Sugar & Cocoa

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (29.1 percent), Cocoa (25.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (19.8 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-66.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Wheat (-33.2 percent) followed by Cotton (-13.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.6 percent)
Sugar (29.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (11.1 percent)
Coffee (-66.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-58.1 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (2.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (31.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-4.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (-13.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.2 percent)
Cocoa (25.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.5 percent)
Wheat (-33.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 252,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 301,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	46.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	61.8	12.2
– Net Position:	252,908	-211,862	-41,046
– Gross Longs:	386,487	667,033	133,045
– Gross Shorts:	133,579	878,895	174,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	41.7	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	4.0	13.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 156,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 66,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	47.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	71.2	6.0
– Net Position:	156,194	-201,779	45,585
– Gross Longs:	251,928	391,034	95,587
– Gross Shorts:	95,734	592,813	50,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	39.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-34.2	36.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	54.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	47.8	4.1
– Net Position:	-14,154	11,840	2,314
– Gross Longs:	37,332	103,544	10,167
– Gross Shorts:	51,486	91,704	7,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.3	63.6	2.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	52.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	60.7	12.1
– Net Position:	76,804	-49,046	-27,758
– Gross Longs:	143,181	325,093	46,855
– Gross Shorts:	66,377	374,139	74,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	71.6	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-2.8	-1.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	42.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	68.8	5.6
– Net Position:	105,263	-120,768	15,505
– Gross Longs:	138,838	198,013	41,274
– Gross Shorts:	33,575	318,781	25,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	24.3	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.1	-33.2	28.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	41.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	72.9	6.8
– Net Position:	104,749	-124,282	19,533
– Gross Longs:	125,175	167,387	46,718
– Gross Shorts:	20,426	291,669	27,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	18.3	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.9	-2.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 47,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	34.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	52.0	11.7
– Net Position:	47,916	-49,845	1,929
– Gross Longs:	98,274	98,081	35,307
– Gross Shorts:	50,358	147,926	33,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	45.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-8.1	4.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	34.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	51.4	13.9
– Net Position:	41,759	-32,298	-9,461
– Gross Longs:	77,835	67,502	17,551
– Gross Shorts:	36,076	99,800	27,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	55.3	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-16.7	-20.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	47.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	58.1	6.0
– Net Position:	20,113	-21,900	1,787
– Gross Longs:	66,427	94,503	13,814
– Gross Shorts:	46,314	116,403	12,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	76.5	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	12.6	-6.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.9	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.8	3.4
– Net Position:	25,843	-28,597	2,754
– Gross Longs:	85,052	120,925	11,816
– Gross Shorts:	59,209	149,522	9,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	59.2	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-26.2	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,214 net contracts.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	39.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	31.2	11.3
– Net Position:	-22,481	29,310	-6,829
– Gross Longs:	90,194	138,565	32,837
– Gross Shorts:	112,675	109,255	39,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	38.5	3.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

14 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Mexican Peso bullish bets for 6th week to 139-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The COT release was delayed due to a Federal Holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican peso & Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher last week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (15,569 contracts) with the British pound sterling (5,101 contracts), the Australian dollar (3,849 contracts), the Japanese yen (2,362 contracts), the Euro (1,809 contracts), Bitcoin (470 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (405 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets last week were the Brazilian real (-24,656 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-2,520 contracts), the Swiss franc (-2,370 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-815 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data last week was the strong gains for the Mexican peso. The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the peso by over +15,000 contracts and for the sixth consecutive week last week. These gains add up to a total rise of +100,936 net contracts over the latest six-week period and brought the overall peso positioning all the way from -41,322 contracts on September 27th to a total of +59,614 contracts on November 8th. This latest speculator level (+59,614 contracts) is the highest speculator standing since March 10th of 2020, a span of 139-weeks.

The peso’s sentiment has been boosted by the Bank of Mexico’s consistent interest rate hiking campaign to tame inflation. The Bank raised the interest rate by 75 basis points last week to a new level of 10 percent. These higher rates have helped the peso rise this year versus the US dollar as most other major currencies have been on the defensive versus the USD. The peso has climbed by over 6 percent (vs USD) while the Euro, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY and the NZD have all declined sharply against the American currency over the year.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,340	81	30,193	75	-33,851	22	3,658	57
EUR	667,902	63	107,599	68	-131,763	39	24,164	18
GBP	237,334	60	-39,735	35	56,255	72	-16,520	26
JPY	251,378	81	-75,258	23	88,980	79	-13,722	26
CHF	49,907	41	-17,154	13	28,276	89	-11,122	20
CAD	147,555	29	-18,464	20	17,930	84	534	31
AUD	162,523	54	-46,683	42	55,223	60	-8,540	32
NZD	45,808	39	-6,367	56	8,792	49	-2,425	24
MXN	300,020	96	59,614	53	-66,356	45	6,742	72
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	28,046	11	4,501	55	-7,773	44	3,272	100
Bitcoin	14,439	84	18	77	-449	0	431	23

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index last week

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (77.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (75.3 percent) led the currency markets last week. The EuroFX (68.0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (55.6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54.8 percent) came in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.8 percent) were the lowest strength levels and were both in bearish extreme positions below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (74.6 percent)
EuroFX (68.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (30.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (19.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (41.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (60.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (52.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (69.1 percent)

Mexican Peso topped the Strength Trends last week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (43.0 percent) led the past six weeks trends for the currency markets. The EuroFX (22.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (9.6 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) were the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-29.0 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-28.8 percent) led the downside trend scores followed by Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-11.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (22.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (8.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-1.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-11.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-17.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	9.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	69.7	4.7
– Net Position:	30,193	-33,851	3,658
– Gross Longs:	42,887	5,442	6,327
– Gross Shorts:	12,694	39,293	2,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	22.0	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.2	19.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 107,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	50.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.5	8.1
– Net Position:	107,599	-131,763	24,164
– Gross Longs:	232,317	339,218	78,139
– Gross Shorts:	124,718	470,981	53,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	38.6	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	-0.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	74.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	50.7	14.8
– Net Position:	-39,735	56,255	-16,520
– Gross Longs:	36,630	176,560	18,714
– Gross Shorts:	76,365	120,305	35,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	72.3	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.1	4.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	37.6	16.0
– Net Position:	-75,258	88,980	-13,722
– Gross Longs:	37,201	183,539	26,462
– Gross Shorts:	112,459	94,559	40,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	79.1	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-5.7	8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	71.3	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	14.7	40.6
– Net Position:	-17,154	28,276	-11,122
– Gross Longs:	4,865	35,603	9,156
– Gross Shorts:	22,019	7,327	20,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	88.6	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	18.1	0.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -18,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	51.3	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	39.2	20.2
– Net Position:	-18,464	17,930	534
– Gross Longs:	39,586	75,750	30,370
– Gross Shorts:	58,050	57,820	29,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	83.7	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	-3.1	9.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	66.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	32.8	15.5
– Net Position:	-46,683	55,223	-8,540
– Gross Longs:	33,288	108,584	16,602
– Gross Shorts:	79,971	53,361	25,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.1	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	5.4	11.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	54.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	35.2	10.8
– Net Position:	-6,367	8,792	-2,425
– Gross Longs:	18,085	24,923	2,532
– Gross Shorts:	24,452	16,131	4,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	49.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	13.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.0	32.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.5	0.8
– Net Position:	59,614	-66,356	6,742
– Gross Longs:	192,024	97,255	9,069
– Gross Shorts:	132,410	163,611	2,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	45.1	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.0	-43.5	14.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.3	18.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	46.3	4.4
– Net Position:	4,501	-7,773	3,272
– Gross Longs:	18,306	5,219	4,502
– Gross Shorts:	13,805	12,992	1,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	43.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	26.6	22.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.3	1.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	5.8
– Net Position:	18	-449	431
– Gross Longs:	11,303	200	1,269
– Gross Shorts:	11,285	649	838
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	42.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	37.5	5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Nov

COT Bonds Speculators raised their Fed Funds & 5-Year Bond bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher last week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (39,189 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (37,532 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (15,257 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (6,903 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (5,993 contracts) and the Long US Bond (4,580 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-161,954 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-45,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,973,351	1	-2,112,650	14	2,359,932	83	-247,282	50
FedFunds	1,490,683	42	22,184	42	-14,210	58	-7,974	39
2-Year	2,205,573	19	-483,273	0	505,582	100	-22,309	42
Long T-Bond	1,207,905	44	-90,725	55	58,256	31	32,469	78
10-Year	4,030,770	67	-283,059	29	349,824	63	-66,765	64
5-Year	4,281,320	67	-499,455	10	612,346	88	-112,891	50

US Treasury Bond led the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (55.1 percent) led the bonds category.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent), 5-Year Bond (10.0 percent) and the Eurodollar (14.2 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and were all in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (37.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (55.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (29.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.9 percent)
Eurodollar (14.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (17.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by 10-Year Bond last week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bond (12.5 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) and the Eurodollar (0.9 percent) were the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) led the downside trend scores while the next market with lower trend scores was the Fed Funds (-9.9 percent) followed by the 5-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-16.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.1 percent)
Eurodollar (0.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (5.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,112,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -161,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,950,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	68.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	39.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-2,112,650	2,359,932	-247,282
– Gross Longs:	487,273	5,471,608	485,753
– Gross Shorts:	2,599,923	3,111,676	733,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	83.2	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.0	1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	73.0	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	73.9	2.8
– Net Position:	22,184	-14,210	-7,974
– Gross Longs:	169,743	1,087,836	33,025
– Gross Shorts:	147,559	1,102,046	40,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	58.2	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	8.8	20.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -483,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -437,785 net contracts.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	58.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-483,273	505,582	-22,309
– Gross Longs:	184,479	1,790,012	181,777
– Gross Shorts:	667,752	1,284,430	204,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	13.9	37.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -499,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 37,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -536,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	69.5	10.3
– Net Position:	-499,455	612,346	-112,891
– Gross Longs:	305,068	3,588,425	327,034
– Gross Shorts:	804,523	2,976,079	439,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	87.9	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	5.5	3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -283,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	75.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	67.0	10.7
– Net Position:	-283,059	349,824	-66,765
– Gross Longs:	499,430	3,049,134	366,261
– Gross Shorts:	782,489	2,699,310	433,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	63.4	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-7.1	-5.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -76,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	79.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	68.7	16.4
– Net Position:	-76,528	152,582	-76,054
– Gross Longs:	117,692	1,103,138	151,341
– Gross Shorts:	194,220	950,556	227,395
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	79.4	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-2.2	16.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -90,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	78.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	73.7	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,725	58,256	32,469
– Gross Longs:	68,339	948,677	178,648
– Gross Shorts:	159,064	890,421	146,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	31.4	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.6	3.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -382,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	59.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-382,173	328,090	54,083
– Gross Longs:	88,204	1,200,247	175,022
– Gross Shorts:	470,377	872,157	120,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	73.7	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-4.1	6.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

14 Nov

COT Metals Speculators raised their Gold, Silver & Copper bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Silver & Copper led the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (17,715 contracts) with Silver (11,479 contracts), Copper (10,397 contracts) and Platinum (3,462 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Palladium with a total of -543 contracts lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Copper & Platinum lead the Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (38.6 percent) and Platinum (35.2 percent) led the metals category last week. Silver (28.4 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (9.7 percent) and Gold (10.0 percent) were at the lowest strength levels currently and in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (10.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.2 percent)
Silver (28.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.8 percent)
Copper (38.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.4 percent)
Platinum (35.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (30.6 percent)
Palladium (9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.8 percent)

Strength Trends topped by Platinum & Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (25.9 percent) and Copper (24.4 percent) led the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (13.5 percent) and Gold (10.0 percent) filled out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-9.3 percent) was the only market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.2 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,715 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	25.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.5	6.0
– Net Position:	82,338	-91,144	8,806
– Gross Longs:	223,135	126,187	38,045
– Gross Shorts:	140,797	217,331	29,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	91.0	1.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.0	-3.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	33.8	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	49.5	9.9
– Net Position:	13,003	-22,088	9,085
– Gross Longs:	53,651	47,451	23,040
– Gross Shorts:	40,648	69,539	13,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	74.4	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-14.4	14.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	37.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	39.3	9.4
– Net Position:	2,913	-3,426	513
– Gross Longs:	55,028	63,309	16,492
– Gross Shorts:	52,115	66,735	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	64.4	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-25.0	9.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	30.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.8	6.0
– Net Position:	19,449	-23,295	3,846
– Gross Longs:	31,065	18,181	7,456
– Gross Shorts:	11,616	41,476	3,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	66.6	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-26.2	19.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	53.7	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	26.5	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,410	2,573	-163
– Gross Longs:	1,667	5,085	1,226
– Gross Shorts:	4,077	2,512	1,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.8	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.7	14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

14 Nov

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil led last week’s speculator changes

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,981 contracts) with Heating Oil (6,578 contracts), Gasoline (5,069 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Natural Gas (-3,655 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) and Heating Oil (83.6 percent) lead the energy category and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (20.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (15.7 percent)
Heating Oil (83.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (73.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Brent Crude Oil & Heating Oil top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (24.3 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) came in as the only market with lower trend scores for last week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (26.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (2.1 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-3.4 percent)
Heating Oil (24.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (10.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (16.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 274,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	38.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	59.0	3.5
– Net Position:	274,790	-301,325	26,535
– Gross Longs:	368,585	551,749	77,784
– Gross Shorts:	93,795	853,074	51,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	82.9	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.7	9.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	44.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	30.9	3.7
– Net Position:	-22,201	18,085	4,116
– Gross Longs:	31,215	59,785	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	53,416	41,700	5,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	23.4	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-37.2	45.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -152,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	45.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	33.4	3.6
– Net Position:	-152,308	120,222	32,086
– Gross Longs:	133,199	448,264	67,376
– Gross Shorts:	285,507	328,042	35,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	68.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-0.3	2.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 48,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	45.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	48,753	-59,226	10,473
– Gross Longs:	83,270	111,348	22,245
– Gross Shorts:	34,517	170,574	11,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	74.5	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-11.8	50.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	41.5	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	60.7	9.1
– Net Position:	27,958	-51,059	23,101
– Gross Longs:	46,818	110,820	47,495
– Gross Shorts:	18,860	161,879	24,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-31.4	44.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	75.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-3,439	5,797	-2,358
– Gross Longs:	12,268	43,434	373
– Gross Shorts:	15,707	37,637	2,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	15.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-6.3	-54.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

14 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Speculators boosted their Sugar & Cocoa bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar & Cocoa led the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher last week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (21,089 contracts) with Cocoa (20,189 contracts), Cotton (4,325 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,871 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,726 contracts) and Soybeans (1,287 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-39,234 contracts) with Coffee (-6,866 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,037 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,688 contracts) and Wheat (-1,448 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores followed by Corn (68.6 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (3.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme levels at the moment (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (68.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (73.6 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.9 percent)
Coffee (3.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.4 percent)
Soybeans (40.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (94.0 percent)
Live Cattle (51.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (51.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.4 percent)
Cotton (26.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.7 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (1.8 percent)

Soybean Oil tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (21.5 percent) and Sugar (10.6 percent) are the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-63.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Wheat (-25.1 percent) followed by Cotton (-15.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.5 percent)
Sugar (10.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (-63.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-49.7 percent)
Soybeans (2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (27.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.0 percent)
Cotton (-15.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.3 percent)
Cocoa (21.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 301,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	61.4	12.1
– Net Position:	301,554	-254,182	-47,372
– Gross Longs:	437,467	657,281	132,893
– Gross Shorts:	135,913	911,463	180,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	35.7	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-3.5	11.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	52.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	68.3	6.0
– Net Position:	90,182	-122,561	32,379
– Gross Longs:	194,931	401,032	78,270
– Gross Shorts:	104,749	523,593	45,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	56.0	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-15.6	30.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	50.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	49.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-4,683	1,912	2,771
– Gross Longs:	42,534	109,195	10,530
– Gross Shorts:	47,217	107,283	7,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	100.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.1	62.1	11.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	51.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	61.6	11.7
– Net Position:	87,809	-60,966	-26,843
– Gross Longs:	152,137	315,696	44,579
– Gross Shorts:	64,328	376,662	71,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	67.9	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-3.3	5.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 99,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	43.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	68.2	5.7
– Net Position:	99,981	-112,802	12,821
– Gross Longs:	133,543	192,512	38,438
– Gross Shorts:	33,562	305,314	25,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	29.3	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-32.5	25.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	73.5	6.4
– Net Position:	121,234	-147,596	26,362
– Gross Longs:	138,146	153,972	52,532
– Gross Shorts:	16,912	301,568	26,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	6.2	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-4.8	15.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	31.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	51.0	11.5
– Net Position:	57,429	-57,915	486
– Gross Longs:	108,040	90,893	33,924
– Gross Shorts:	50,611	148,808	33,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	34.0	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.6	12.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	34.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.6	13.9
– Net Position:	40,862	-31,247	-9,615
– Gross Longs:	76,465	64,349	16,565
– Gross Shorts:	35,603	95,596	26,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	56.5	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.4	-8.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	48.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	57.7	5.5
– Net Position:	20,477	-21,461	984
– Gross Longs:	66,804	114,001	13,817
– Gross Shorts:	46,327	135,462	12,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	75.1	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	15.2	-6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.6	3.2
– Net Position:	11,948	-15,306	3,358
– Gross Longs:	92,594	130,491	12,348
– Gross Shorts:	80,646	145,797	8,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	72.3	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-20.8	-7.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	38.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	31.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-17,214	23,686	-6,472
– Gross Longs:	94,154	135,610	30,937
– Gross Shorts:	111,368	111,924	37,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.4	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	27.0	4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Nov

Mexican Peso & Euro Currency Speculators sharply boost their bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Peso & Euro bets

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets were the Mexican peso (31,471 contracts), the Euro (30,881 contracts) and the Japanese yen (24,998 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (9,037 contracts), the British pound sterling (2,969 contracts), the Australian dollar (914 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (506 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Swiss franc (-3,484 contracts) with Bitcoin (-475 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-310 contracts) and the Brazilian real (-22 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the strong gains in the Mexican peso positioning since the start of October. Peso speculative positions jumped by over +30,000 contracts for a second straight week this week and have now been higher by at least +10,000 contracts in each of the past three weeks. Overall, the peso position has gained for five consecutive weeks and by a total of +85,367 contracts over that five-week period.

The renewed speculator optimism has brought the peso positioning from out of the bearish level it was in for nineteen straight weeks (from June 14th to October 18th) into a new bullish standing and to most bullish level since March 8th. The peso’s futures price has also been on the rise with a gain by over 1.50 percent this week. Peso prices have now risen in five out of the past six weeks and have reached their best level since early June.

Another highlight of this week’s COT data is the Euro’s continued gains in speculator positions. The large speculator contracts rose strongly yet again this week as the Euro position has now climbed for a third straight week and for the eighth time in the past nine weeks. The nine-week speculator’s total increase now stands at a whopping +153,466 contracts. The Euro position was in bearish territory as recently as September 13th (total of -11,837 contracts) and now the total speculator position is at +105,790 contracts (a 72-week high). However, despite this strong speculator sentiment, the Euro exchange rate versus the US dollar continues to only trade around parity or the 1.000 level. The speculators are usually reliable trend-followers (buying when prices rises and selling when prices fall) and this divergence between the price and speculator contracts is growing quite large and could foretell a possible strong future movement in the Euro one way or the other.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	55,942	80	29,788	75	-33,331	23	3,543	55
EUR	671,729	65	105,790	67	-128,819	39	23,029	16
GBP	243,549	63	-44,836	31	65,377	78	-20,541	18
JPY	258,906	86	-77,620	21	95,774	82	-18,154	17
CHF	50,107	41	-14,784	19	27,731	88	-12,947	14
CAD	147,170	28	-17,649	21	19,275	85	-1,626	27
AUD	165,411	56	-50,532	38	62,726	66	-12,194	23
NZD	47,219	38	-3,847	61	6,881	45	-3,034	17
MXN	282,864	88	44,045	46	-50,512	52	6,467	70
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	58,289	51	29,157	79	-29,139	23	-18	65
Bitcoin	12,183	67	-452	69	-16	0	468	24

Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (79.0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (74.6 percent) lead the currency markets currently. Bitcoin (69.1 percent) and the EuroFX (67.5 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (19.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position under 20 percent. The Canadian Dollar (20.8 percent), the Japanese Yen (21.1 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (30.5 percent) come in as the next lowest scores.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (74.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (75.1 percent)
EuroFX (67.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (58.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (19.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (32.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.1 percent)
Bitcoin (69.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Peso & Euro top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (30.7 percent) and the EuroFX (22.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (8.6 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Swiss Franc (-20.4 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-17.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.3 percent)
EuroFX (22.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-36.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-9.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-3.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	10.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	69.9	5.2
– Net Position:	29,788	-33,331	3,543
– Gross Longs:	42,304	5,761	6,460
– Gross Shorts:	12,516	39,092	2,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	22.9	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-4.1	7.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	50.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	69.7	8.0
– Net Position:	105,790	-128,819	23,029
– Gross Longs:	239,770	339,364	77,062
– Gross Shorts:	133,980	468,183	54,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	39.5	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-21.7	6.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	75.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	48.4	16.4
– Net Position:	-44,836	65,377	-20,541
– Gross Longs:	34,979	183,210	19,464
– Gross Shorts:	79,815	117,833	40,005
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	78.5	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.5	-3.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -77,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	73.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	36.9	15.9
– Net Position:	-77,620	95,774	-18,154
– Gross Longs:	40,460	191,221	23,021
– Gross Shorts:	118,080	95,447	41,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	82.4	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-0.8	-3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	71.5	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	16.1	40.9
– Net Position:	-14,784	27,731	-12,947
– Gross Longs:	6,612	35,822	7,559
– Gross Shorts:	21,396	8,091	20,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	87.7	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	23.5	-22.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	50.5	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	37.4	22.3
– Net Position:	-17,649	19,275	-1,626
– Gross Longs:	38,522	74,352	31,212
– Gross Shorts:	56,171	55,077	32,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	84.8	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	15.3	2.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	67.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	29.6	16.6
– Net Position:	-50,532	62,726	-12,194
– Gross Longs:	34,148	111,638	15,301
– Gross Shorts:	84,680	48,912	27,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	65.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.9	-1.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,884 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	48.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	34.4	12.2
– Net Position:	-3,847	6,881	-3,034
– Gross Longs:	21,115	23,103	2,707
– Gross Shorts:	24,962	16,222	5,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	45.4	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	13.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	32.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	50.0	0.7
– Net Position:	44,045	-50,512	6,467
– Gross Longs:	182,316	90,811	8,464
– Gross Shorts:	138,271	141,323	1,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	51.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-31.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.7	22.9	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	72.9	10.7
– Net Position:	29,157	-29,139	-18
– Gross Longs:	38,325	13,328	6,246
– Gross Shorts:	9,168	42,467	6,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	22.9	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	4.8	-20.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.6	3.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.3	3.5	6.2
– Net Position:	-452	-16	468
– Gross Longs:	8,967	406	1,218
– Gross Shorts:	9,419	422	750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	63.8	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	38.7	5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Wheat lead weekly COT Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 1st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the COT data table or COT leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 94.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 119,508 net contracts this week and has been over the +100,000 net contract level in fifteen out of the past seventeen weeks.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the only other market above 80 percent in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 84.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -6,047 net contracts this week. This market usually has an overall bearish positioning for speculators and this week’s position is near the lowest levels of the past three years.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at 0.0 percent score or at the absolute bottom of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -15,766 net contracts this week and the overall position is in bearish territory for the twelfth time out of the past fourteen weeks. Wheat prices continue to be in an uptrend but the speculator sentiment has fallen sharply from earlier in the year.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as well. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at the 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -437,785 net contracts this week and hit the most bearish level on record this week as the US Federal Reserve continued to raise its benchmark interest rate.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Gold speculator level is at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 64,623 net contracts this week and has now been under +100,000 net contracts for eight straight weeks which has not happened since 2018.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -536,987 net contracts this week and joins all the other bond markets we cover that have negative or bearish net positioning at the moment.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the next market in the most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 7.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -83,431 net contracts this week.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

06 Nov

Copper Speculators trim their Bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Copper & Platinum lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were slightly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (9,435 contracts) with Platinum (4,606 contracts) and Silver (1,625 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-3,409 contracts) with Palladium (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in the Copper speculators positioning over the past few months. The large speculators raised their Copper bets for the second straight week this week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. Copper spec positions have been in an overall bearish standing since April (currently in a 28-week streak of bearish contracts) with the lowest level of -31,796 contracts coming in July. However, the bearish bets have been lightening up of late and this week’s total of -7,484 contracts marks the least bearish level of the past twenty-one weeks, dating back to June 7th.

Copper prices were sharply on the rise this week as well with gains for the week climbing by over 7.50 percent. Helping Copper prices go higher this week were the rumors that China will potentially ease their COVID-related restrictions as well as some supply issues out of South America.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,459,052	2	254,809	12	-275,761	90	20,952	35
Gold	467,276	10	64,623	4	-74,782	96	10,159	5
Silver	138,875	12	1,524	16	-10,363	85	8,839	13
Copper	179,801	18	-7,484	30	7,998	73	-514	22
Palladium	8,372	12	-1,867	13	2,221	87	-354	20
Platinum	56,534	16	15,987	31	-19,690	71	3,703	18
Natural Gas	986,116	7	-148,653	34	127,501	71	21,152	30
Brent	134,010	0	-21,908	74	17,423	22	4,485	70
Heating Oil	268,025	23	21,380	74	-41,295	27	19,915	67
Soybeans	584,073	2	86,522	40	-57,886	69	-28,636	23
Corn	1,472,517	29	340,788	74	-286,790	31	-53,998	12
Coffee	217,400	25	2,183	12	-4,162	93	1,979	27
Sugar	737,846	9	69,093	46	-90,576	56	21,483	34
Wheat	333,061	20	-15,766	0	22,493	92	-6,727	75

Strength Scores led by Copper & Platinum

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (30.6 percent) and Copper (30.4 percent) lead the metals category.

On the downside, Gold (4.2 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Palladium (12.8 percent) and Silver (15.8 percent). All three of these markets remain in a bearish extreme position with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (15.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.0 percent)
Copper (30.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.9 percent)
Platinum (30.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.4 percent)
Palladium (12.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.6 percent)

Strength Trends topped by Platinum

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (18.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (10.2 percent) and Silver (3.5 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-4.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Gold (-0.4 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.7 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (10.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (18.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.8 percent)
Palladium (-4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	26.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	42.9	6.1
– Net Position:	64,623	-74,782	10,159
– Gross Longs:	216,341	125,689	38,559
– Gross Shorts:	151,718	200,471	28,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	96.1	5.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.2	1.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	37.3	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	44.8	9.5
– Net Position:	1,524	-10,363	8,839
– Gross Longs:	51,286	51,802	22,076
– Gross Shorts:	49,762	62,165	13,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	85.4	13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-4.5	7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	42.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	38.0	8.1
– Net Position:	-7,484	7,998	-514
– Gross Longs:	50,738	76,394	14,103
– Gross Shorts:	58,222	68,396	14,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	73.2	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-11.8	14.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	31.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	66.7	6.1
– Net Position:	15,987	-19,690	3,703
– Gross Longs:	28,611	18,041	7,159
– Gross Shorts:	12,624	37,731	3,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	71.2	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-17.9	7.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	54.1	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	27.6	17.9
– Net Position:	-1,867	2,221	-354
– Gross Longs:	1,906	4,532	1,141
– Gross Shorts:	3,773	2,311	1,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	86.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	5.5	-10.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

06 Nov

COT Bonds Speculators drop their 2-Year Bond bets to record low level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Fed Funds, 2-Year & 5-Year

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower across the board this week as all eight of the bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week were the Fed Funds (-89,356 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-88,189 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-75,242 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-54,038 contracts), the 10-Year Bond (-50,568 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-37,144 contracts), the Long US Bond (-18,746 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-4,085 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the historic weakness of the 2-Year Bond speculators positioning. Large speculators dropped their bets this week for a second straight week and by the largest weekly amount since May with this week’s decline numbering -88,189 contracts. The sentiment drop has now brought the overall 2-Year Bond speculator standing to its lowest level on record at a total of -437,785 contracts, eclipsing the previous record low of -417,237 contracts registered on December 11th of 2018.

The bond markets overall were on the defensive this week as the US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the fourth straight meeting. The 2-Year Bond, being near the short end of the yield curve, is especially sensitive to the rate change. The 2-Year front month futures price decreased to the lowest level since 2007 this week while the yield for the 2-Year hit above 5 percent (yields rise as prices fall), the highest threshold since 2007 as well.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,921,865	0	-1,950,696	17	2,217,457	81	-266,761	46
FedFunds	1,364,703	32	-17,005	38	30,796	64	-13,791	25
2-Year	2,234,148	20	-437,785	0	464,387	100	-26,602	40
Long T-Bond	1,193,687	42	-95,305	54	64,906	34	30,399	77
10-Year	3,952,205	61	-298,316	27	343,554	63	-45,238	69
5-Year	4,140,760	59	-536,987	4	629,897	90	-92,910	56

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (53.6 percent) leads the bonds category this week. The Fed Funds (37.5 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores but is down from 48.6 percent from last week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the 5-Year Bond (4.3 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) and the Eurodollar (17.2 percent). All four of these markets currently are in bearish extreme positioning compared to the past three years of speculator positions with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (37.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (34.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (59.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Eurodollar (17.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.2 percent)

Eurodollar & US Treasury Bond show positive Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (5.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.2 percent), 10-Year Bond (-10.4 percent), the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.1 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (-6.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-5.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-10.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
Eurodollar (5.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,950,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -54,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,896,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	67.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	39.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,950,696	2,217,457	-266,761
– Gross Longs:	589,471	5,361,762	371,189
– Gross Shorts:	2,540,167	3,144,305	637,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.7	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.2	4.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -89,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	73.5	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	71.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-17,005	30,796	-13,791
– Gross Longs:	140,920	1,002,689	25,091
– Gross Shorts:	157,925	971,893	38,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	63.6	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.8	-17.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -437,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -88,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -349,596 net contracts.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	61.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-437,785	464,387	-26,602
– Gross Longs:	164,982	1,831,669	169,031
– Gross Shorts:	602,767	1,367,282	195,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	4.9	30.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -536,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -75,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -461,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	86.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	70.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-536,987	629,897	-92,910
– Gross Longs:	213,179	3,559,701	313,942
– Gross Shorts:	750,166	2,929,804	406,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.1	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	-1.2	14.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -298,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -50,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	76.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	67.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-298,316	343,554	-45,238
– Gross Longs:	471,166	3,021,952	357,967
– Gross Shorts:	769,482	2,678,398	403,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	62.7	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	0.1	16.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -83,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	80.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.8	16.6
– Net Position:	-83,431	161,124	-77,693
– Gross Longs:	109,513	1,118,917	153,574
– Gross Shorts:	192,944	957,793	231,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.1	81.6	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.3	30.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	79.2	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	73.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-95,305	64,906	30,399
– Gross Longs:	67,408	945,230	170,536
– Gross Shorts:	162,713	880,324	140,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	33.8	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.0	7.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -388,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	82.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	59.4	7.8
– Net Position:	-388,166	335,892	52,274
– Gross Longs:	85,681	1,198,023	165,861
– Gross Shorts:	473,847	862,131	113,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	77.8	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	3.0	13.5

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