InvestMacro

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.08%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.91%. Investor sentiment was supported by the signing of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which opens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reduces volatility risks in the energy market. This optimism, combined with the rapid surge in the technology sector, outweighed market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as the Fed kept rates unchanged but hinted at the possibility of another hike this year.

The main growth driver in the tech segment was Intel, whose shares jumped 10.6% after President Trump announced that the company would manufacture chips for Apple inside the United States. This boosted the entire semiconductor sector: Nvidia rose by 2.8%, and Micron Technology by 8.5%. Airlines also showed notable gains, including American Airlines (+3.3%). Meanwhile, SpaceX shares fell by 3.5%, extending their decline for the second consecutive session after last week’s high‑profile IPO.

On Thursday, European stock indices showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 1.04%. A positive factor for the market was the signing of a memorandum between US President Donald Trump and Iran, which suspends military actions for 60 days and opens the Strait of Hormuz. This lowered energy prices and eased investor concerns about further ECB tightening this year.

Norway’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but indicated a high likelihood of further increases. Governor Ida Wolden Bache noted that rising business costs will continue to support strong price pressures, meaning the base rate may be raised at one of the upcoming meetings and could settle slightly above 4.5% by year‑end. Inflation in Norway has exceeded target levels for several years, while overall economic activity shows signs of weakening.

The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0%, emphasizing that the current monetary stance ensures price stability and supports economic growth. The regulator noted that medium‑term inflationary pressure has barely changed despite the recent spike in energy prices. According to the updated SNB expectation, inflation will slightly accelerate in the near term before returning to a downward trajectory in early 2027.

Crude oil prices (WTI) fell below 75 dollars per barrel, hitting their lowest level since early March, following the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran. The deal aims to end the prolonged conflict that caused the largest supply disruption in history and has already led to the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Restoring this strategic route will allow Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq to return millions of barrels of previously halted production to the market. Since the April peak, oil prices have fallen by roughly 38%. Activity in Persian Gulf ports is picking up: Saudi tankers, as well as fuel and LNG carriers, have begun departing the region. However, global physical inventories of crude remain low.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to 3.16 dollars per MMBtu after the EIA report showed that storage increased by 73 billion cubic feet in the week ending June 12 – slightly below the expected 75 billion. The current pace of inventory buildup slowed compared to the previous week (+108 bcf) and was weaker than the same period last year (+97 bcf), though it matched the five‑year average. As a result, total inventories reached 2.759 trillion cubic feet, 1% below last year’s level but 5.8% above the five‑year average.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by 1.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.59%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.62%.

At its June 18, 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, as expected. This move followed an unscheduled 25‑bp hike on June 9 and became the third tightening round in the past month, bringing the total increase since May to 100 basis points – the highest since April 2025. At the same time, the regulator raised the overnight deposit and lending facility rates to 4.75% and 6.50%, respectively. These decisive actions aim to protect the national currency, attract foreign capital, and contain inflationary pressures.

The US stock market closed in negative territory, reacting to the results of the June FOMC meeting. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by -0.98%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by -1.21%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.34%. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause and the first decision under the leadership of the new chair, Kevin Warsh. The updated economic projections revealed a split within the regulator: nine officials allow for at least one rate hike before the end of the year, six expect at least two increases, and another nine anticipate maintaining or lowering rates. The Fed’s main macroeconomic concerns have shifted toward price pressures: the PCE inflation projection for 2026 was sharply raised from 2.7% to 3.6%, and the estimate for the following year was revised from 2.7% to 3.3%. The Fed leadership noted that the US economy continues to show resilient performance despite geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the labor market remains balanced.

The new Fed chair also announced the creation of five working groups that will review virtually everything: how the Fed communicates with markets, what to do with the balance sheet, which data to use, and how to measure inflation and employment. The Fed will now actively seek new data sources, which could potentially lead to a new model of monetary policy formation. This factor likely frightened markets the most due to the uncertainty it introduces.
Against the backdrop of sharp sell‑offs and a collapse in US Treasury prices, the technology sector came under heavy pressure, particularly the “Magnificent Seven”: shares of Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon fell by more than 2%.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to around 1.41 per US dollar, fluctuating near a seven‑month low following the results of the latest Fed meeting. Although the US regulator kept interest rates unchanged as expected, the updated projections were perceived as hawkish, since about half of FOMC members allowed for another rate hike before the end of the year. This increased pressure on the Canadian currency in the pair with the US dollar.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by +0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by -0.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained +1.35%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session higher by +0.14%.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG) fell below 70 dollars per ounce, reacting to the results of the Fed meeting, which kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at a possible hike before year‑end. Pressure on precious metals intensified because half of the FOMC members supported further tightening amid expectations of persistently high core inflation and a stable labor market. Such hawkish projections triggered sell‑offs in the bond market, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding metals in favor of fixed‑income securities.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by more than 1.5%, surpassing 77 dollars per barrel. The catalyst for the local rebound was a strong statement by US President Donald Trump, who warned of the possibility of resuming airstrikes on Iran if Tehran violates its commitments. This reintroduced uncertainty regarding the final ceasefire agreement, as the US leader emphasized that the signed memorandum is not the final step.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by +0.72%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by -0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by -0.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by +0.54%. In Asia, investors closely followed the final day of the Lujiazui Forum, where the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a possible transition to using the overnight rate as the main monetary policy benchmark. Additional uncertainty came from Vice Premier He Lifeng’s statement that Beijing plans to introduce anti‑sanctions measures to counter foreign restrictions.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kept its base rate at 4.0%. This synchronicity is due to the linked exchange rate system, which pegs the Hong Kong dollar within the 7.75–7.85 range per US dollar and obliges the local regulator to mirror US monetary policy regardless of domestic economic conditions. Despite the high cost of borrowing, Hong Kong’s economy remains resilient: in Q1 2026, GDP growth accelerated to a nearly five‑year high of 5.9% year‑over‑year. The main drivers of the recovery were stable external trade and strong domestic demand, which helped businesses offset the negative effects of geopolitical tensions and logistics disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

The US stock indices closed with a sharp surge amid the official signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The diplomatic breakthrough and the imminent unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down by 5%, instantly easing global business inflation concerns. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.92%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.65%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 3.06%.

The drop in energy prices triggered a powerful inflow of capital into sectors directly dependent on fuel costs. The transport sector and the travel industry became the growth leaders: United Airlines shares rose by 3.9%, Norwegian Cruise Line gained 3.7%, and Carnival Corp. strengthened by 3.2%. Elon Musk’s space giant continues to rewrite records after its Friday debut. The company’s shares jumped another 15%, consolidating around 185 dollars per share and pushing SpaceX’s market capitalization to an unprecedented 2.3 trillion dollars. The main outsider of the day was the media group Fox Corp., whose shares collapsed by 17%. Investors reacted extremely negatively to the official announcement of the acquisition of the streaming platform Roku for 22 billion dollars. The market considered the deal price significantly overvalued.

European indices closed mixed on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.43%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.39%.

The main beneficiary of the Middle East de-escalation was Europe’s real sector. Since the European region critically depends on hydrocarbon imports, the collapse in oil prices (which fell below 80 dollars per barrel on Monday) removed market fears of a prolonged energy crisis. The strongest upward dynamics were demonstrated by shares of automotive manufacturers and airlines, whose costs are directly tied to fuel prices. Investors are encouraged by the prospect of a full unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which will begin immediately after the memorandum is signed in Switzerland this Friday. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran will be obliged to fully clear the strait’s waters of deployed naval mines.

The Swiss franc (CHF) showed a confident rebound, strengthening to 0.79 francs per US dollar and recovering from a two‑month low. The weakening of the US currency was caused by overall market optimism amid news of the imminent end of the Middle East crisis. The decline in global oil prices to a two‑month low (around 80 dollars per barrel) significantly simplified the task for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) ahead of its upcoming meeting. Domestic economic indicators also confirm the disinflationary trend – in May the Index surprised by falling 0.4% month‑over‑month. The decline in domestic producer prices combined with the sharp collapse in commodity prices virtually guarantees that the SNB will keep its key interest rate unchanged at its June 18 meeting.

Large institutional investors continue to reduce their presence in metals. Last Friday, long positions in gold ETFs fell to a 6.5‑month low, showing a deep pullback from the 3.5‑year high recorded at the peak of the Middle East crisis on February 27. A similar picture is seen in silver ETFs – holdings there fell to a 10.5‑month low (the peak was reached on December 23).

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) fell below 81 dollars per barrel, extending the decline after nearly a 5% drop in the previous session. Investors are cautious as they await details of the proposed peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Although Donald Trump stated that the deal will restore the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, the absence of an official memorandum text is forcing shipping companies to delay vessel departures until full clarity emerges.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 4.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up by 1.25%.

The Australian dollar fell to a two‑month low around 0.705, reacting sharply to the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The RBA decided to hit the brakes, unanimously keeping the base interest rate at 4.35%. This step followed an aggressive series of three consecutive hikes in February, March, and May, which the regulator needed to combat the second wave of inflation triggered by the spring blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Most economists agree that the RBA will remain at the current plateau of 4.35% at least until the end of winter (the next meeting is scheduled for August 11).

On Friday, US stock indices closed in the green zone amid two powerful drivers: the historic market debut of SpaceX and persistent geopolitical optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.70% (weekly result +0.40%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.50% (weekly result -0.12%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.64% (weekly result +0.52%).

The main event of the day was the triumphant debut of SpaceX on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker SPCX. With an IPO price of 135 dollars per share, trading opened at 150 dollars. During the day, the stock surged by almost 30%, and closed at 161.11 dollars (a gain of 19.3%). This record IPO worth 75 billion dollars increased Elon Musk’s company’s capitalization to 2 trillion dollars. During the trading session, markets experienced short-term volatility due to a tough statement by Donald Trump, who warned Iran against disrupting the negotiations. However, markets quickly recovered after the publication of details of the draft peace agreement.

This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. According to the general consensus of analysts, the American regulator will keep interest rates in the current range of 3.5-3.75%. The main intrigue lies in the rhetoric: whether officials will signal readiness to resume rate hikes at the end of 2026 to curb inflation, which was fueled by the spring surge in oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, the market will assess a block of important US macroeconomic data for May.

Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, repeating the pace of the previous month, which, under high inflation, indicates the preservation of nominal spending at the expense of reduced savings. In contrast, industrial production is prediction to slow sharply – growth will amount to only 0.2% after a strong April jump of 0.7%. The real estate sector will also show cooling: analysts expect a decline in both housing starts and building permits amid high costs.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76% (weekly result +0.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.83% (weekly result +2.67%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.59% (weekly result +3.05%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 1.63% (weekly result +0.99%). In Europe, the focus of global financial markets this week is on the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden. According to the consensus outlook, the Bank of England will keep the base interest rate at 3.75%, although investors hope to receive hints from the Committee regarding the overall trajectory for the rest of the year. The central banks of Sweden (Riksbank), Switzerland (SNB), and Norway (Norges Bank) are expected to keep their current interest rates unchanged, opting for a wait‑and‑see approach. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Germany is expected to show a moderate improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment Index for June. This will mark the second month of recovery after a deep April decline to a three‑year low, although the indicator will likely remain in negative territory.

Crude oil prices collapsed by more than 5%, plunging to 80 dollars per barrel and hitting a two‑month low. The massive sell‑off was triggered by the official announcement of the long‑awaited peace agreement between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the agreement provides for the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This will allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restored by the end of the current week. In addition to reopening the strait, the framework agreement obliges Tehran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. In return, Iran receives a package of large‑scale economic incentives and legalization of its oil exports. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi officially confirmed that a compromise had been reached.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.81% (weekly result +0.11%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.50% (weekly result +1.64%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.93% (weekly result +0.55%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 1.98% (weekly result +1.14%). This week, the Asia‑Pacific region expects a dense flow of economic news.

Japan: The key event will be the Bank of Japan meeting (June 15-16). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation and a weak yen, the regulator is expected to raise the base rate by 25 basis points – to 1.0%. If confirmed, the rate will return to its highest level since 1995. Traders will also assess May data on inflation, trade, and machinery orders.

China: Investors will analyze a comprehensive block of May macroeconomic data: retail sales, industrial production (analysts expectation an acceleration to 4.6% due to IT exports), unemployment rate, fixed‑asset investment, and housing prices.

Australia: The Reserve Bank will likely pause and keep the refinancing rate at 4.35% after the May quarter‑point hike.

Other countries: Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia will publish trade balances, New Zealand will report Q1 GDP, and the central banks of Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines will announce rate decisions.