InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stock indices finished trading near historical highs amid strong corporate earnings and an improving macroeconomic backdrop. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.17%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Wednesday in negative territory at 0.83%. The main driver behind easing inflation concerns came from the commodity market: oil prices continued to decline following reports that Iran had reached an agreement with Oman on an alternative shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, along with US confirmation of progress in restoring trade flows.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed slightly higher at 0.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.17%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.08%. On Wednesday, European stock indices showed mixed dynamics, holding near the historical highs reached earlier in the week.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices (WTI) consolidated below 76 dollars per barrel, stabilizing after a drop of more than 5% over the previous two sessions. The market is pricing in strong optimism regarding the imminent conclusion of a temporary agreement to unblock shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US, Iran, and Oman are close to signing a 60‑day deal to open the strategic waterway without additional fees, and an official statement from Washington could come as early as Wednesday. President Donald Trump confirmed a positive outlook, noting the successful nature of negotiations with Tehran and promising to reveal details within the next 48 hours.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.66%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed higher at 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed yesterday up 0.90%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is steadily holding above 0.705 USD. The main driver of the currency’s strengthening was unexpected trade data: in June, Australia’s trade balance returned to a surplus of 1.9 billion AUD (after a revised deficit of 2.4 billion AUD in May). A sharp recovery in gold and iron ore exports, along with stabilized imports, provided significant support to the national economy.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened slightly to around 0.589 USD, returning to a two‑month high amid rising global risk appetite driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A day earlier, the New Zealand currency had been under pressure due to weak labor‑market statistics, which reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will proceed gradually. Nevertheless, market participants still price in a 0.25‑percentage‑point rate hike in September.

On Tuesday, US stock indices posted strong gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.71%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.79%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Tuesday in positive territory at 2.59%. The main drivers of the rally were strong corporate earnings and declining oil prices amid easing geopolitical tensions and prospects for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On the corporate front, Palantir showed a record surge, with its shares jumping 29% after publishing impressive second‑quarter financial results. Semiconductor manufacturers also demonstrated confident growth, led by Intel (+10.8%), Marvell (+13%), Micron (+7.6%), and Broadcom (+6.6%), while industrial giant Caterpillar’s shares rose by 5.5% thanks to strong earnings and an improved revenue outlook.

Canada’s Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global Canada) rose to 53.5 points compared to 53.0 in June, reaching its highest level since June 2022 and confidently defying analysts’ expectations of a decline to 50.2. The indicator recorded growth for the fourth consecutive month, supported by domestic demand, which offset a decline in export orders falling for the second month in a row amid existing tariffs and the Middle East conflict.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.77%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.61%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.21%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session slightly higher at 0.20%. On Tuesday, the key German Index DAX 40 closed at a record level, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The main drivers of the market were technology sector stocks and companies developing artificial intelligence technologies. Investor sentiment was supported by a strong corporate earnings season and hopes for a rapid diplomatic settlement in the Middle East: oil prices reversed downward after morning gains following a statement by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that an agreement with Iran on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain steadily above 1,700 dollars per ounce, approaching a seven‑week high amid a broad rally in the precious metals segment. The main driver is improved market sentiment thanks to hopes for a swift agreement between the US and Iran and the unblocking of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional support came from strong corporate news: South Africa’s Valterra Platinum, which controls about 38% of global primary platinum production, reported a sharp increase in interim profit amid high prices for platinum‑group metals.

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) plunged by more than 5%, falling below 76 dollars per barrel and fully erasing the morning rally. Pressure on the market came from hopes for intensified diplomatic dialogue between the US and Iran, which significantly reduced investor concerns about potential disruptions in energy supplies. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that an agreement on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within days, while Qatari authorities reported preparations for a joint draft resolution aimed at de‑escalating the regional conflict. The situation remains fragile: Iran’s insistence on strict control over shipping in the strait creates persistent risks of renewed geopolitical tension and another surge in commodity prices.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 3.28%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed higher at 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed yesterday up 1.71%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan (CNY) consolidated around 6.74 per US dollar, holding its strongest levels since early February 2023. The Chinese currency was supported by rising global risk appetite amid news of progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East crisis. US and Qatari officials reported that mediation efforts had entered an advanced stage, and the prepared draft agreement gives hope for the rapid restoration of safe shipping through the critically important Strait of Hormuz.

The Australian dollar (AUD) consolidated above 0.70 USD, reaching a seven‑week high amid rising global risk appetite, general US dollar weakness, and strong domestic macroeconomic data. The economy was supported by July business activity figures: the composite private‑sector PMI was revised upward to 53.2 points (the highest since January) thanks to confident growth in services and renewed expansion in manufacturing.

The publication of New Zealand’s official labor‑market statistics for the second quarter recorded an increase in unemployment to 5.6%, exceeding analysts’ expectations and reaching the highest level in almost ten years. The deterioration occurred against the backdrop of persistent cost pressures on businesses and a strong influx of new job seekers, whose activity outpaced the rate of new job creation. The increase in available labor resources is also confirmed by a jump in the overall underutilization rate to 13.8% and a rise in the number of unemployed citizens to 171,000 people. The data have heightened uncertainty regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next steps in monetary policy, as the growing labor‑supply surplus may help restrain inflationary pressure in the national economy.

On Friday, the US stock market posted gains amid a volatile session, supported by rising prices of leading technology companies. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.53% (weekly +0.60%). The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.70% (weekly +0.34%). The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Friday in positive territory at 0.60% (weekly -0.49%). The main driver was Amazon shares, which surged by 15.3% thanks to active expansion of its cloud services segment. Positive sentiment in the artificial intelligence sector also supported other major corporations: Alphabet shares rose by 6.9%, Microsoft by 3%, and Meta by 3.3%. This rally helped offset the decline in Apple shares by 7.3%, triggered by a microchip shortage that increased costs and reduced production in the June quarter.

The key event of this week for the US economy will be Friday’s employment report. It is expected that in July nonfarm payrolls increased by 91,000 (after a rise of 57,000 in June), the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings growth remained at 0.3% month‑over‑month. Strong data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate hikes at the September meeting to combat inflation. In addition to the employment report, early in the week market participants will monitor ISM manufacturing and non‑manufacturing indices, JOLTS job openings data (expected to decline to 7.25 million), the ADP report, as well as statistics on foreign trade, factory orders, and labor productivity.

In June 2026, Canada’s GDP is predicted to have increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, resulting in economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter. More detailed statistics for May recorded GDP growth of 0.3%, demonstrating the economy’s resilience despite inflationary pressure caused by rising energy prices amid the war in Iran.

By the end of the Friday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07% (weekly +0.67%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.28% (weekly +0.79%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13% (weekly +0.04%), while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.27% (weekly +1.23%). This week in Europe, Germany’s trade surplus is expected to shrink in June after reaching a three‑month high in May, amid a possible pause in industrial production growth and declining retail sales.

On Monday, platinum (XPT) prices exceeded 1,660 dollars per ounce, reaching a six‑week high amid a general rise in precious metals. This occurred due to falling oil prices triggered by renewed hopes for a peace agreement in the Middle East. US President Trump announced the resumption of negotiations with Iran and reported the cancellation of a large‑scale strike at the request of regional allies.

Crude oil prices (WTI) fell by more than 5% on Monday, dropping below 80 dollars per barrel after a surge of more than 20% in July. The reason was President Donald Trump’s statement about resuming peace talks with Iran and canceling a planned military strike. The largest producers in the OPEC+ alliance decided to approve another moderate increase in oil production quotas. This completed the planned process of restoring production volumes that had been reduced back in 2023 and left open the possibility of further supply increases after a final settlement of the Middle East conflict.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by 4.03% (weekly -1.23%), China’s FTSE China 50 closed higher at 0.38% (weekly -2.74%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.09% (weekly +3.56%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed Friday up 0.10% (weekly +1.34%).

This week in Asia, investors will focus on private July RatingDog surveys of China’s business activity indices: growth is expected to accelerate in the manufacturing sector while slowing in services, and the trade surplus is prognosed to shrink to 112.5 billion dollars ahead of inflation data. In Japan, attention will be drawn to June wage growth and household spending figures, along with minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting following the recent rate hike to 1% and its maintenance in July. In addition, a series of Asian countries will release statistics on foreign trade, inflation, Q2 GDP dynamics, and New Zealand’s labor market, and at the end of the week, July PMI indices for a number of regional economies will be published.

In July 2026, Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of 3.6 billion USD, significantly different from the surplus of 2.3 billion USD observed a year earlier. At the same time, external trade volumes showed strong growth: exports increased by 25% year‑over‑year to 53.1 billion USD, while imports jumped by 41.4% to 56.7 billion USD.

On Thursday, the US stock indices posted strong gains, fully recovering from the previous session’s slump. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.19%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.66%. The Tech‑focused NASDAQ (US100) closed in positive territory, up 3.36%. The recovery was driven by a powerful surge in the semiconductor sector and strong corporate earnings, which outweighed concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve leadership’s cautious tone.

The main engine of the market was Microsoft, whose shares soared by 15.5% amid a 43% jump in cloud‑services revenue. Chipmakers also rallied sharply as investors bought up assets that had fallen the day before: Sandisk surged 26%, Micron added 18.4%, AMD – 13% higher, and Intel – 11.3% up. Additional support for the tech sector came from Oracle shares, which rose 8.3% thanks to expanded cooperation with Google in the field of Gemini artificial intelligence. In the bond market, Treasury yields remained elevated amid weak Q2 GDP data and concerns that the absence of hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh regarding further rate hikes could prolong the period of high inflation.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.92%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.78%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session slightly lower at 0.10%. On Thursday, the German DAX 40 consolidated above 25,600 points, reaching its highest level since early July. The positive market dynamics were supported by strong macroeconomic data and a global rebound in semiconductor stocks. According to published figures, Germany’s economy grew by 0.2% in the first quarter, beating the 0.1% expectation, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.8% in July from 2.3% in June, also exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, the overall positive picture was clouded by sharp declines in other sectors. Adidas shares plunged 13% after the company warned that faster‑than‑expected cost growth would limit profit increases despite an improved revenue outlook. Airbus shares also fell by around 3% despite strong Q2 results, as the market had expected the aerospace giant to raise its annual outlooks.

The crude oil prices (WTI) fell nearly 1% to below $84 per barrel, correcting after a strong 6.6% surge in the previous session. The main factors behind the decline were signs of partial recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at de‑escalating the Middle East conflict. An additional positive signal for logistics came from Qatar sending its first LNG shipment through the route, as well as reports that Saudi Arabia plans to form a naval coalition to protect trade routes. On the supply side, high oil inventories in China also weighed on prices, suppressing import demand and easing fears of an immediate shortage.

US natural gas prices (XAG/USD) showed a slight increase, rising to around $2.75 per MMBtu. The recovery was driven by EIA data showing that inventories rose by only 28 billion cubic feet in the week ending July 24, below market expectations of 35 billion. Nevertheless, prices remained near multi‑month lows seen in early May due to overall oversupply: current inventories exceed the five‑year seasonal average by 6.4%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by 0.71%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed lower at 0.81%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.20%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday down 0.78%.

The offshore yuan (CNY) held near 6.74 per dollar on Friday, remaining at its highest level since February 2023. Against this backdrop, investors increased expectations of new government support measures following the release of business activity (PMI) data. According to official figures, China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, marking the first contraction since February, while the non‑manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 from 50.2, indicating renewed decline. These weak results were published after Q2 GDP growth failed to meet prognoses and fell short of the government’s target range of 4.5–5%.
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) held near 0.587 USD, approaching its eight‑week high amid US dollar weakness and positive domestic data. In New Zealand, the ANZ‑Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index for July rose by 8 points to 99.3, reaching a five‑month high and confirming improved business sentiment reflected in previous surveys.

The US equity indices ended Wednesday’s session with notable declines as geopolitical risks intensified and oil prices surged following renewed clashes between the United States and Iran. The Dow Jones (US30) slipped 0.01%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell 1.52%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) dropped 1.74%.

An additional negative factor was the Federal Reserve meeting: the Fed left rates unchanged, but the appearance of three dissenting FOMC members favoring a rate hike increased investor caution. The epicenter of the sell‑off was the semiconductor and technology sector, where investors fear excessive capital expenditures on AI infrastructure after disappointing results from SK Hynix. Micron plunged 9.9%, AMD fell by 5.5%, and Nvidia declined by 3.5%.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026 aligned with most expectations, despite markets pricing a one‑in‑three chance of a hike before the meeting. The main surprise was the presence of three dissenting votes in favor of a 25‑bp increase – a clear signal of strong hawkish sentiment within the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, leaving the door open for tightening at the September meeting.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to around 1.40 per USD, recovering from the two‑week low of 1.42 recorded on July 27. The main driver was the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged, which weakened the US dollar. Earlier in July, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting, noting the economy’s adjustment to external shocks and easing inflationary pressure from energy prices, though some board members expressed concerns about the durability of the recovery and rising inflation expectations.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.01%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined 0.60%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 1.59%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) rose by 0.34%. Fresh ECB wage‑monitoring data indicate stable and moderate wage dynamics. According to agreements concluded in early July 2026, the projected growth in negotiated wages is 2.3% for this year and 2.7% in Q1 2027 – significantly below 2025 levels. Nevertheless, investors continue to price in the possibility of a second rate hike at the ECB’s September meeting.

Crude oil prices surged more than 7% on Wednesday, rising to around $85 per barrel. The jump ended a three‑day decline and was triggered by a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions. The situation deteriorated after US President Donald Trump stated he was prepared to deliver a powerful strike against Iran in response to an attempted attack on US forces. Physical‑market tensions also increased due to Iran‑aligned groups in Iraq, which for a second day attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province with drones. Additional concerns emerged after reports that Yemen’s Houthi movement plans to impose fees on vessels in the Red Sea – echoing Iran’s intentions to introduce similar charges in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, posing risks to global energy logistics.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell sharply by 1.49%, China’s FTSE China A50 rose by 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.96%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 1.01%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to 0.58 USD amid broad US dollar weakness after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. Additional support came from strong domestic data: the ANZ Business Confidence Index jumped to 56.1 in July from 36.6 in June, reflecting improved business expectations.