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Oil prices jumped 4% amid a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29% (weekly: -0.36%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42% (weekly: +0.91%). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the green at 0.33% (weekly: +0.84%). On Friday, US equity markets ended the week on a positive note, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the earnings season. The main event was the record debut of South Korea’s SK Hynix, which raised $26.5 billion in the largest listing of a foreign company in US history, with its depositary receipts jumping 12.8% above the offering price. The tech sector showed mixed dynamics: amid rising demand for AI‑related solutions, Nvidia and AMD shares rose 4% and 2% respectively, while Meta surged 6% thanks to a positive analyst report.

This week will be pivotal for financial markets, as investors will closely analyze Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony in Congress. After his appointment, markets began pricing in a more hawkish monetary policy scenario, and now traders expect signals regarding the Fed’s readiness to raise rates in September. Particular interest will center on how the current labor‑market weakness – reflected in recent jobless‑claims data – aligns with his assessment of inflation risks, which are being fueled by energy prices. Investors will also focus on the US CPI inflation report this week. Headline inflation is expected to slow below 4%, but the persistence of core inflation at 2.9% may complicate the Fed’s task. Additional clarity will come from retail‑sales and industrial‑production reports, which will show how effectively the US economy is coping with inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of key Fed decisions.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its key rate at 2.25% this week, continuing its wait‑and‑see approach. Analysts note the absence of any urgent need for changes: inflation risks appear contained, and the economic recovery is progressing gradually, making the current monetary policy appropriate. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, rising to 1.41 per US dollar after hitting a 15‑month low of 1.425 at the end of June. This rebound was made possible by June employment data: the economy added 18,200 jobs, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5%. The positive labor‑market dynamics significantly reduced expectations that the Bank of Canada would need to ease monetary policy in the near term to support the economy.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.20% (weekly: -2.89%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.15% (weekly: -2.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.32% (weekly: -2.36%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24% (weekly: -1.71%). European equity markets are undergoing a correction after recently reaching record highs. The main pressure came from the tech sector: ASML shares fell 2.1%, Siemens Energy dropped 2.6%, and Infineon declined 1.3%. Market participants continue reassessing the outlook for the AI sector, questioning whether the significant speculative demand for infrastructure can transform into sustainable long‑term profitability for companies.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by roughly 4%, surpassing $74 per barrel and breaking a two‑day decline. The positive price dynamics were driven by a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where an exchange of missile strikes occurred. The flare‑up in the region erased recent optimism linked to the temporary peace agreement, which had previously given the market hope for increased energy supplies. Tehran issued a statement announcing the closure of navigation through the strait until further notice, which was denied by US Central Command, but the mere fact of the incident significantly complicates prospects for diplomatic resolution.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.20% (weekly: -2.02%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 2.48% (weekly: -0.27%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60% (weekly: +3.29%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.50% (weekly: -0.14%). On Monday, sentiment across Asia‑Pacific equity markets was mostly negative amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran, linked to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a spike in oil prices. This raised investor concerns about intensifying inflationary pressure and potential interest‑rate hikes by global central banks. As a result, most regional markets ended the session in the red, including Japan, Australia, and China.

This week will be decisive for the Asia‑Pacific region, where macroeconomic data from China will set the tone for global sentiment. China’s GDP growth in Q2 is expected to slow to 4.4%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the economy, despite a projected slight acceleration in the industrial sector to 4.7%. Investors will pay close attention to retail‑sales and trade figures, as well as credit‑growth data, which should clarify the effectiveness of recent measures aimed at supporting business activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,575.39 +31.75 (+0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,637.01 +149.60 (+0.29%)

DAX (DE40) 25,067.09 -51.18 (-0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,497.29 +24.84 (+0.24%)

USD Index 100.97 +0.06 (+0.06%)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Jul

EUR/USD: US Inflation Will Determine Everything

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD opens the week around 1.1433. Investors continue to assess the situation in the Middle East, where uncertainty remains high. Oil prices corrected lower following a sharp rise at the start of the week, after reports that the United States and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations.

At the same time, fresh mutual strikes between the parties have heightened fears that the conflict could once again enter an escalation phase, leaving the prospects for maintaining the ceasefire uncertain.

Renewed hostilities have brought fears of a new inflation wave back to the market, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Markets currently estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 62%, up from 58% a week earlier, though this figure exceeded 70% mid-week.

Additional attention has been drawn to comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that one of the key drivers of inflationary pressure in the United States remains demand growth, linked to developments in artificial intelligence technology.

The main event of the week will be the release of the US June consumer price index (CPI). Higher-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight policy stance, potentially supporting the dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast CPI data would increase pressure on the US currency, as markets would begin to price in a softer monetary policy trajectory once again

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1388 and up to 1.1410. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1450, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next growth wave to the 1.1412 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a range expansion down to 1.1366 and up to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above 50 and pointing strictly up to 80, before a subsequent decline to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is treading water at the start of the week as markets await key US inflation data that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains elevated, with conflicting signals-renewed peace talks on one hand and fresh military strikes on the other-keeping investors cautious. Inflation expectations have been reinforced by escalating tensions, pushing September rate hike probabilities higher despite a mid-week dip. Comments from NY Fed’s Williams on AI-driven demand as an inflation factor have added another dimension to the debate. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s CPI release: a stronger print could boost the dollar, while a weaker outcome would ease pressure on the euro. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets see small gains for Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the muted gains for the metals was Silver (647 contracts) with Gold (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,129 contracts), Copper (-516 contracts), Steel (-349 contracts) and with Palladium (-334 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper leads the Metals Markets price performances

In the major Metals Markets this week, Copper was the highest mover with a modest 0.93% gain over the past 5 days. Steel followed that with a 0.72% rise, and Palladium rounded out the gainers with a small 0.30% increase.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.26% on the week, followed by Platinum with a -2.3% decrease.

The biggest decliner on the week was Silver, which declined by -5.28%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (87 percent) and Steel (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (61.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Platinum (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (34.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.9 percent)
Copper (86.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.4 percent)
Platinum (45.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.5 percent)
Palladium (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.3 percent)
Steel (71.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (73.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Silver (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.5 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.0 percent)
Platinum (-9.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-7.3 percent)
Palladium (-11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.1 percent)
Steel (-14.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 194,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 194,019 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	75.8	4.7
– Net Position:	194,246	-222,282	28,036
– Gross Longs:	233,713	59,564	45,636
– Gross Shorts:	39,467	281,846	17,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	47.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.6	-10.1

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,368 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	29.9	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	28,015	-43,095	15,080
– Gross Longs:	39,446	31,337	24,829
– Gross Shorts:	11,431	74,432	9,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	68.4	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-3.5	-19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,788 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	35.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	64.3	3.9
– Net Position:	64,272	-73,170	8,898
– Gross Longs:	96,440	88,070	18,622
– Gross Shorts:	32,168	161,240	9,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.0	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.9	-9.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -1,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,001 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	33.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.6	7.0
– Net Position:	13,872	-17,702	3,830
– Gross Longs:	22,825	18,023	7,579
– Gross Shorts:	8,953	35,725	3,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	60.8	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.3	-20.9

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	46.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	23.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-4,658	4,161	497
– Gross Longs:	6,345	8,315	2,127
– Gross Shorts:	11,003	4,154	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	43.1	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.9	-11.8

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	64.1	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	85.4	0.3
– Net Position:	8,363	-8,533	170
– Gross Longs:	11,353	25,662	274
– Gross Shorts:	2,990	34,195	104
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	29.3	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	14.8	-26.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (100,586 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (26,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-52,543 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-52,811 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-38,606 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-21,150 contracts), the Fed Funds (-18,236 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-11,115 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-5,371 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Bond Markets were mostly lower in price performances

In the US Bond Markets, the 1-month SOFR and the 3-month SOFR markets were the only risers on the week with each seeing very small upticks of 0.02%, respectively.

On the downside, the 2-year bond dipped by just -0.14% on the week, while the Fed Funds was lower by -0.28%. The 5-year bond fell by -0.35%, and the 10-year note was lower by -0.51%.

Leading the decliners on the week was the long US Treasury Bond with a -1.08% decline.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 2-Year Bonds (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (4 percent) and the Fed Funds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (33 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (39 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (5.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (8.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (57.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (54.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (78.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (81.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (40.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (68.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (71.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (51.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (63.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (42.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (3.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.9 percent)

US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds and are the only positive mover for the week.

The Fed Funds (-35.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-35.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-33.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (32.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (30.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-18.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-0.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-2.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-28.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-38.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -354,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -18,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -336,017 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	63.8	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	49.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-354,253	331,304	22,949
– Gross Longs:	267,644	1,483,848	88,287
– Gross Shorts:	621,897	1,152,544	65,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	92.0	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.1	33.2	26.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,775,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 100,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,876,540 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	66.6	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	45.4	0.3
– Net Position:	-2,775,954	2,774,055	1,899
– Gross Longs:	1,444,494	8,729,909	42,236
– Gross Shorts:	4,220,448	5,955,854	40,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	96.4	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	28.8	-7.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -204,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -52,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,904 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	62.4	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	47.8	1.7
– Net Position:	-204,447	214,212	-9,765
– Gross Longs:	223,532	913,894	15,478
– Gross Shorts:	427,979	699,682	25,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	59.6	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	3.2	-28.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,261,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 26,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,287,581 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	76.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	50.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,261,008	1,182,473	78,535
– Gross Longs:	475,562	3,417,464	231,968
– Gross Shorts:	1,736,570	2,234,991	153,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	45.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-2.1	12.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,359,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -38,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,320,510 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	84.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	62.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-1,359,116	1,330,507	28,609
– Gross Longs:	476,187	5,234,030	394,006
– Gross Shorts:	1,835,303	3,903,523	365,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	27.7	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.5	-12.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -814,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808,891 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	80.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	65.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-814,262	793,271	20,991
– Gross Longs:	548,331	4,274,288	392,944
– Gross Shorts:	1,362,593	3,481,017	371,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	72.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	41.8	-85.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -148,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,029 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	72.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-148,144	227,063	-78,919
– Gross Longs:	204,637	2,012,986	215,252
– Gross Shorts:	352,781	1,785,923	294,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	35.1	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	-2.0	31.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -143,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -52,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,780 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	73.2	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	72.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-143,591	19,958	123,633
– Gross Longs:	218,376	1,376,050	248,721
– Gross Shorts:	361,967	1,356,092	125,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	51.2	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-24.6	28.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -307,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,669 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	73.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-307,819	275,491	32,328
– Gross Longs:	138,733	2,073,781	203,972
– Gross Shorts:	446,552	1,798,290	171,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	47.6	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	1.4	45.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (9,883 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,496 contracts), Gasoline (3,893 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,594 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-34,782 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-1,318 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil leads Energy Markets price performance

Leading the Energy Markets price performances this week was Heating Oil, which saw a gain by 9.63% over the past five days. Gasoline came in second with a 7.59% rise, while Brent Oil was third with a 6.16% increase. WTI Crude Oil was up by 4.11% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.46% advance.

On the downside, Natural Gas was the only decliner with a -8.10% drop.

All of these six Energy Markets have seen lower levels or negative price gains over the past 30 days, while over the past 90 days, all of the Energy Markets have been lower except for the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which has risen by 3.32% in the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bloomberg Index (51.6 percent), Gasoline (51.4 percent) and Heating Oil (50.4 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (11.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (26.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (11.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (22.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (24.8 percent)
Natural Gas (26.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (22.9 percent)
Gasoline (51.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.1 percent)
Heating Oil (50.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (51.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (52.8 percent)

Bloomberg Index & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (38.0 percent) and Natural Gas (24.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-27.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-15.1 percent)
Natural Gas (24.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.7 percent)
Gasoline (4.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (3.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (38.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (40.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 75,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	54.0	2.6
– Net Position:	75,749	-104,622	28,873
– Gross Longs:	317,773	924,510	78,825
– Gross Shorts:	242,024	1,029,132	49,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.8	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	27.8	-11.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,532 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	36.0	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	26.7	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,649	22,442	2,207
– Gross Longs:	51,281	86,780	8,476
– Gross Shorts:	75,930	64,338	6,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	56.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-5.8	-46.6

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -165,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,803 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	23.5	2.3
– Net Position:	-165,307	149,504	15,803
– Gross Longs:	273,556	541,591	53,470
– Gross Shorts:	438,863	392,087	37,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.0	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-26.0	7.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 3,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,331 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.0	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	63.2	4.7
– Net Position:	58,224	-67,028	8,804
– Gross Longs:	101,734	132,929	23,619
– Gross Shorts:	43,510	199,957	14,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	44.8	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	1.4	-22.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,668 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	46.2	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.7	9.9
– Net Position:	5,262	-23,596	18,334
– Gross Longs:	49,554	127,375	45,673
– Gross Shorts:	44,292	150,971	27,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	44.1	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	6.0	-24.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,578 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	33.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-31,896	31,468	428
– Gross Longs:	84,392	91,955	487
– Gross Shorts:	116,288	60,487	59
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	8.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.0	-37.9	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

12 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (37,457 contracts) with Corn (36,803 contracts), Soybeans (36,180 contracts), Soybean Meal (13,702 contracts), Cotton (10,580 contracts), Wheat (5,274 contracts), Coffee (5,092 contracts) and Cocoa (1,731 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the decreases in weekly speculator bets were Live Cattle (-6,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,783 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-2,150 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Price Performances

This week’s Soft Commodities price performances were led by super strong performances from Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa jumped by 18.61% this week, followed by Coffee, which was higher by 12.13%. Next up, Cotton rose higher by 5.74%, while Wheat advanced by 5.42%, and Soybean Oil was also higher by over 5% with a 5.38% increase.

Soybean Meal was higher than 3% with a 3.46% rise, while Corn saw an advance by 2.56%. Soybeans rose by 1.84% on the week, while Lean Hogs was up marginally by 0.25%, and Sugar saw a minuscule uptick by 0.07%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was the only decliner on the week with a -1.60% decrease.

Cocoa and Coffee have been seeing strong trends higher as Cocoa is up by over 44% in the past 30 days, while Coffee is up by 25% in the past 30 days. Cocoa’s 90-day gain is now a whopping 97.72%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Live Cattle (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (39 percent) and the Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.9 percent)
Sugar (39.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.5 percent)
Coffee (48.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (91.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.4 percent)
Cocoa (9.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.2 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.0 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (9 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-34 percent), Corn (-27 percent) and Lean Hogs (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-40.0 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Coffee (9.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybeans (-20.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-45.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-32.8 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.7 percent)
Cocoa (3.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-33.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 100,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 36,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,177 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	44.9	10.2
– Net Position:	100,980	-67,654	-33,326
– Gross Longs:	478,153	700,793	141,480
– Gross Shorts:	377,173	768,447	174,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	46.9	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	24.8	31.5

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 37,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	41.0	7.5
– Net Position:	-59,273	55,415	3,858
– Gross Longs:	263,310	464,352	78,490
– Gross Shorts:	322,583	408,937	74,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	62.7	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.1	3.0

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 5,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	35.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	51.5	3.4
– Net Position:	25,623	-27,568	1,945
– Gross Longs:	59,414	62,308	7,876
– Gross Shorts:	33,791	89,876	5,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	51.5	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.5	31.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 36,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,627 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	59.6	7.2
– Net Position:	112,807	-85,585	-27,222
– Gross Longs:	215,618	495,676	43,415
– Gross Shorts:	102,811	581,261	70,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	33.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	20.8	2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 94,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,449 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	63.8	4.1
– Net Position:	94,666	-104,308	9,642
– Gross Longs:	150,422	305,646	35,851
– Gross Shorts:	55,756	409,954	26,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	30.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.8	-21.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,686 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	44.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	59.2	4.4
– Net Position:	62,388	-86,217	23,829
– Gross Longs:	169,619	266,258	50,121
– Gross Shorts:	107,231	352,475	26,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	39.3	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.4	38.2	-14.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,861 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	30.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	52.7	11.4
– Net Position:	81,668	-70,893	-10,775
– Gross Longs:	138,662	96,239	25,345
– Gross Shorts:	56,994	167,132	36,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	34.1	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.5	2.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,271 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	23.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-64,421	62,268	2,153
– Gross Longs:	67,415	130,907	22,710
– Gross Shorts:	131,836	68,639	20,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	23.1	27.3

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,848 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	34.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	65.0	2.6
– Net Position:	88,428	-95,539	7,111
– Gross Longs:	137,454	111,052	15,463
– Gross Shorts:	49,026	206,591	8,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	11.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.7	-11.0

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,460 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	44.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-12,729	11,372	1,357
– Gross Longs:	38,399	98,437	11,012
– Gross Shorts:	51,128	87,065	9,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	88.8	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.4	3.9

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 5,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,004 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	28.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-49,730	50,894	-1,164
– Gross Longs:	111,128	167,760	33,278
– Gross Shorts:	160,858	116,866	34,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	46.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	37.5	-17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Jul

The US and European stock indices are rising again amid renewed investor interest in the AI industry.

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains, finishing the trading session in the “green zone.” By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.81%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher yesterday, up 1.62%. The market recovery was driven by renewed investor interest in the technology sector, especially semiconductor manufacturers, whose shares once again saw strong demand. In particular, Micron and Sandisk shares rose by 5.2% and 7.6%, respectively, and the positive reception of SK Hynix’s US share offering – oversubscribed more than sevenfold – significantly strengthened confidence in the AI industry. An additional driver of growth was Meta, whose shares jumped 4% on news of plans to launch its own artificial intelligence chip as early as September.

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed to 3.37%, down from 3.94% in May and reaching its lowest level since December 2020. This result exceeded market expectations of 3.52%, allowing inflation to firmly settle within the Bank of Mexico’s target range (3% ± 1%). The monthly decline in consumer prices by 0.27% confirms the disinflation trend, giving the Bank of Mexico more flexibility regarding future monetary policy decisions.

European indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.89%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.90%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.14%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.16%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) entered a correction, falling below $ 72 per barrel. This occurred after a sharp 4.4% jump during the previous session, triggered by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The market is trying to assess real risks to global supply amid increasing strikes on military facilities and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite concerns, actual activity in the strait remains ambiguous: according to tracking systems, shipping has slowed significantly, although some tankers continue moving, often turning off transponders for safety. Traders remain cautious, as high price volatility reflects not so much current physical disruptions as a preventive market reaction to the risk of a full blockade of this strategically important waterway.

On Thursday, US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 4%, reaching $ 3.07 per MMBtu, the lowest level in six weeks. The main pressure factor was Freeport LNG’s announcement of planned maintenance at its Texas liquefaction facilities starting July 10, temporarily limiting export demand. The situation was worsened by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing a 61 billion cubic feet increase in inventories for the week ending July 3, significantly above the five‑year average of 51 billion cubic feet.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 gained 2.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.26%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose to 0.695 USD. The macroeconomic backdrop for the country remains restrained after the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Australia to 1.9% and warned that inflation would remain at 4%. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting, the consensus forecast suggests keeping the key rate at 4.35%. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a final rate hike by year‑end.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened to around 6.78 per dollar, continuing its upward trend and reaching a three‑week high. Investor confidence was boosted by actions from the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily reference rate at 6.7989, lowering it below the psychologically important 6.80 threshold for the first time since 2023. The market interpreted this step as a clear signal that the regulator is ready to allow further strengthening of the national currency and does not intend to actively resist market trends.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,543.64 +60.93 (+0.81%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,487.41 +139.02 (+0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 25,118.27 +220.82 (+0.89%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,472.45 -16.59 (-0.16%)

USD Index 100.94 -0.05 (-0.05%)

News feed for: 2026.07.10

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Jul

USD/JPY Falls as Yen Recovers Weekly Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.

Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.

Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.

At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.

Conclusion

The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jul

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7% in reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, US stock indices showed mixed dynamics amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.28%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher yesterday by 0.27%. The S&P 500 and the industrial Dow Jones declined, reflecting investor concerns over rising energy prices following President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 received support from the semiconductor sector, which began recovering after recent sell‑offs.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging: Treasury yields rose, and the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the regulator’s readiness to raise rates further if inflation remains persistent. This put pressure on sectors sensitive to credit conditions: JPMorgan shares fell by 2.5%, and Visa by 1.3%. Shares of major tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft also declined due to investor doubts about the profitability of large‑scale spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its global growth expectations for the current year at 3%, only 0.1 percentage points below the April estimate. Such resilience of the global economy is attributed to successful adaptation to the consequences of the conflict with Iran, as well as significant inflows of investment into artificial intelligence technologies. The outlook for 2027 was revised upward – from 3.2% to 3.4%.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.23%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 2.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 1.66%. The yield on 10‑year German government bonds (Bunds) rose to 3.1%, the highest level since May 21, marking the longest upward streak since the beginning of the year. The main driver of the sell‑off in the bond market was concern about accelerating inflation amid a sharp rise in oil prices caused by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. This means the European Central Bank will have to keep interest rates high for a longer period. Markets are currently pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional tightening by the ECB this year, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike as early as September.

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7%, reaching 75.6 dollars per barrel. This jump was a reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: after President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran and threats of new military strikes, Tehran reported attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The situation worsened after Washington revoked exemptions for Iranian oil exports, raising concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy supplies passes.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.99%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.21%.

On Thursday, Australian stocks declined again, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses. The main pressure on the market came from the non‑energy mining sector, healthcare, processing industries, and financials, while investors remained cautious ahead of important inflation and producer price data in China. Negative sentiment was reinforced by a statement from the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Sarah Hunter, who warned that the country may need a period of slower economic growth and rising unemployment to combat inflation expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,482.71 -21.14 (-0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,348.39 -576.76 (-1.09%)

DAX (DE40) 24,897.45 -567.80 (-2.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,489.04 -176.84 (-1.66%)

USD Index 101.13 +0.27 (+0.27%)

News feed for: 2026.07.09

China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Jul

Middle East Tensions Weigh on Gold

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell to 4,032 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of decline. Pressure on the market intensified amid fears that a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies and accelerate inflation.

The US military confirmed that it has been striking targets in Iran for the second consecutive day, seeking to limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has announced preparations for a large-scale operation against American military bases in the region.

US President Donald Trump stated that, in his view, the ceasefire has effectively come to an end. He also warned of the possibility of further strikes against Iran and the imposition of an additional naval blockade.

Additional investor attention has been drawn to the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They showed that only a small proportion of the regulator’s representatives advocated a rate hike as early as June, with most participants remaining concerned about inflation risks.

The market continues to price in at least one Fed interest rate increase before the end of 2026, which limits gold’s upside potential despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,090 USD level. A decline to 4,018 USD and a subsequent rise to 4,088 USD have been completed. A further move lower towards 3,930 USD is expected, followed by a potential rebound to 4,055 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,150 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,090 USD level and is moving lower towards 3,977 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around 4,090 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation. US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threat of retaliation have escalated tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire effectively over. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes revealed a cautious central bank, with only a minority advocating an immediate rate hike, while most members remain vigilant about inflation risks. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, limiting gold’s appeal despite safe-haven demand. Technically, further downside towards 3,930 USD appears likely, with any recovery likely to be capped by ongoing geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds.

Disclaimer

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