InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the US stock market showed positive dynamics for the second session in a row. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.66%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.18%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.96%. The main driver of optimism was hopes for the resumption of diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran, which could lead to de‑escalation of the conflict and the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The main inflow of capital was concentrated in the communication services and consumer‑goods sectors, while energy companies were among the underperformers due to falling oil prices.

The IMF revised its expectations for global economic development in 2026, lowering the growth outlook to 3.1%. This is 0.2 percentage points below previous estimates and is attributed to the negative impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the prediction for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.2%. IMF experts emphasize that the current energy crisis caused by the confrontation with Iran is comparable in scale to the oil shock of 1974, although the modern economic system has a higher degree of resilience.

On Tuesday, the European stock market closed in the green. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the trading session up 0.25%. The positive dynamics were driven by hopes for de‑escalation of the Middle East conflict: reports emerged about a possible return of US and Iranian delegations to the negotiating table in Islamabad as early as this week. An additional factor that made the market question the long‑term viability of strict measures was criticism of the maritime blockade of Iranian ports from Saudi Arabia and China, which cast doubt on the effectiveness and sustainability of such restrictions. Siemens shares led the gainers, rising more than 4%.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices showed a sharp decline, falling more than 7% lower to below 92 dollars per barrel, the lowest level in the past three weeks. Donald Trump allowed for the resumption of negotiations in Pakistan within the next two days, and Tehran expressed readiness to temporarily suspend restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the diplomatic process. These developments outweighed concerns related to the officially imposed maritime blockade of Iranian exports by the United States. At the same time, IEA experts expressed serious concern about the long‑term outlook for the market. According to the agency, the prolonged confrontation threatens to completely offset global oil‑demand growth this year, potentially leading to the first annual decline in consumption since the pandemic.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the trading week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90% yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan traded near 6.81 per dollar, holding close to its highest levels in the past three years. The strengthening of the Chinese currency is driven by a combination of domestic economic success and a favorable external environment. According to the current prognosis, China’s GDP will grow by 4.8% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026. This indicates a gradual recovery of activity after slowing to 4.5% at the end of last year, when indicators reached their lowest point since the post‑pandemic reopening of the economy.

Notably, Beijing has managed to minimize the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict. Thanks to consistent efforts toward energy independence and diversification of resource supplies, the impact of geopolitical instability on domestic prices and production remains limited.

Monday ended with gains in the US stock market. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.02%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 1.06%. Investor optimism was driven by a correction in oil prices and a decline in bond yields amid hopes for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Despite the failure of Sunday’s negotiations and Donald Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Iranian exports, his subsequent statement that Iran was willing to resume dialogue calmed the market. The main driver of growth was the technology sector, where Oracle shares surged 12%.

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 74,000‑dollar mark, reaching a four‑week high. The digital assets’ positive momentum is linked to investors returning to risk‑on strategies amid signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s strong resilience: it has gained more than 10% since the start of the conflict, outperforming many traditional assets. However, experts believe that a full‑scale rally requires regulatory clarity. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce expressed support for establishing a stable regulatory framework for crypto brokers – a signal the industry interpreted as a step toward broader institutional acceptance of digital assets.

On Monday, European stock markets closed in the red, although indices managed to recover part of their intraday losses by the close. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.26%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.17%. The main source of concern was Donald Trump’s announcement that the US Navy had begun enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of diplomatic efforts in Islamabad. This reignited fears of an oil shortage. Beyond geopolitics, markets also reacted to major political shifts within the EU following Hungary’s election results. Péter Magyar’s victory marked the end of Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year tenure, a development seen as strengthening the position of pro‑EU forces.

Platinum prices (XPT) surged to a four‑week high, reaching 2,100 dollars per ounce. The rise in precious metals was driven by signs of potential de‑escalation in the Middle East: Washington and Tehran signaled readiness to return to negotiations. However, despite the current rally, platinum remains under pressure from declining industrial demand. The automotive sector continues to reduce purchases of the metal due to the global shift toward electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized near 98 dollars per barrel, posting a gain of less than 2%. Notably, early in the session, prices had jumped as much as 9%, but the market cooled after signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. According to the latest OPEC+ report, the alliance’s daily output fell by 7.9 million barrels in March due to shipping disruptions in the strait. The supply deficit was partially eased by news from Saudi Arabia: the kingdom reported the restoration of production at the Manifa oil field and full capacity of the East–West pipeline, which provides access to the Red Sea.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Tuesday, China’s 10‑year government bond yield fell to a six‑week low of 1.78%, marking its third consecutive day of decline. The main driver was weak trade data: annual export growth slowed to 2.5% (a five‑month low), totaling 321.03 billion dollars. At the same time, imports surged by 27.8%, the fastest pace since autumn 2021, reaching 511.3 billion dollars. This sharp imbalance reduced the trade surplus to 51.13 billion dollars, nearly half of last year’s figure and significantly below analyst expectations.

The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized at 0.709 USD, holding near a four‑week high. The currency was supported by hopes for de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran as well as signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed concern that inflation remains above the 2-3% target range and that current interest rates may not be high enough to contain price growth, especially given elevated oil prices. His comments pushed the probability of a rate hike at the May meeting from 69% to 72%, although the final decision will depend on upcoming labor‑market and consumer‑activity data.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.56% (weekly result +3.11%). The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.11% (weekly result +3.48%). The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Friday up 0.14% (weekly result +4.03%). The upcoming week will be a moment of truth for the US market, as the geopolitical agenda collides with the hard numbers of corporate reality. Vice President J.D. Vance conducts difficult negotiations in Islamabad, attempting to turn the fragile ceasefire into a stable agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street is preparing for the start of earnings season. Reports from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, will show how well the financial sector has adapted to high volatility and interest rates that the Federal Reserve continues to hold at restrictive levels.

Investors are particularly concerned about the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The Headline Index is expected to jump 1.2% month‑over‑month, confirming that the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is already filtering through production chains. Attention to the tech sector will peak at the end of the week when TSMC and Netflix release their earnings. These reports will serve as a litmus test for global semiconductor demand and consumer confidence amid inflationary pressure.

However, the situation remains extremely tense following the diplomatic marathon in Islamabad. Direct negotiations between the US delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials ended without a breakthrough. Tehran continues to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already caused unprecedented disruptions in global oil and gas supplies. Adding fuel to the fire is Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric, warning of new fees for ships in the region – effectively turning the strait into a “toll corridor” under Iran’s control.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened slightly, falling 0.16% to 1.38 per US dollar. The main pressure on the loonie came from a combination of geopolitical calm and disappointing domestic data. Although the unemployment rate stabilized at 6.7%, analysts note that this was driven more by a decline in labor‑force participation than by genuine hiring momentum.

The Mexican peso (MXN) ended the trading week with a 0.3% gain, closing at 17.31 per dollar, reaffirming its status as one of the most resilient emerging‑market currencies. The primary driver of the peso’s strength remains the carry‑trade strategy. The large interest‑rate differential between Banxico and the US Federal Reserve makes the peso highly attractive to investors seeking yield in an environment of relative stability.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) slipped by 0.01% (weekly +3.79%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.17% (weekly +4.85%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.55% (weekly +5.12%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.03% (weekly +2.95%). This week, Europe’s main event will be the release of the final March inflation data, which will confirm the Eurozone’s transition into an energy‑shock phase. Inflation in Germany and the UK is expected to reflect a sharp rise in costs caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil‑price volatility. Wholesale‑price data in Germany will serve as a leading indicator of how quickly the LNG shortage will spill into retail markets in the coming months. Alongside inflation reports, markets will assess the resilience of the real economy through February trade balance and industrial‑production data – both under scrutiny due to the impact of the 10% US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

On Europe’s political map, the central event is the parliamentary election in Hungary. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the contest between Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar, whose TISZA party, according to recent polls, has a chance to strip the ruling government of its majority. The result will determine whether Hungary retains its veto power on key EU policy issues or whether the architecture of European unity undergoes radical change.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 6.99% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 0.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed 3.17%. This week, investor attention in the Asia‑Pacific region will focus on China, where a batch of macroeconomic data is expected to confirm the resilience of the world’s second‑largest economy. GDP growth for Q1 2026 is outlooked to accelerate to 5.0%, an important signal amid global instability. Despite expected slowdowns in retail sales and industrial production in March, a substantial trade surplus of 112 billion dollars and strong credit expansion (up to 3.4 trillion yuan) indicate that Beijing continues to successfully stimulate both domestic and external growth drivers. In Australia, the focus shifts to the labor market, where a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% and ongoing job creation support expectations of another RBA rate hike as early as May.