InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stock markets rose confidently amid improved investor sentiment due to a possible resolution of the conflict with Iran and strong corporate earnings. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 1.24%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.46%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 2.02%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again renewed record highs. Growth was observed in almost all sectors except energy, which came under pressure due to falling oil prices. The main drivers of the market were companies related to artificial intelligence and data‑center infrastructure. AMD and Super Micro Computer showed particularly strong performance after reporting better‑than‑expected results and raising their projections. Additional support came from strong results by Disney and a positive outlook from Uber, which also boosted their shares.

On Wednesday, European stock markets rose sharply amid falling energy prices, which were driven by expectations of a possible resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 2.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 2.94%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 2.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session up positive 2.15%. The decline in oil and gas prices also led to a revision of monetary‑policy expectations: investors began pricing in less aggressive rate hikes, and corporate profit outlooks improved.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG) rose sharply, gaining more than 6% and climbing above $77 per ounce, reaching its highest level in recent weeks. The price increase was driven by easing inflation concerns amid signs of de‑escalation in the Middle East, which put pressure on oil prices. Optimism strengthened after reports of a possible agreement between the US and Iran that could lead to an end to the conflict and the resumption of nuclear negotiations. Against this backdrop, precious metals partially recovered earlier losses, which had been caused by rising energy prices that heightened inflation risks and supported expectations of tighter central‑bank policy.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices fell sharply, dropping about 6% to around $96 per barrel and continuing the decline that began the previous day. The market came under pressure from growing expectations of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Tehran reported that it is considering a US‑backed proposal to end the conflict, and a final response may be delivered through intermediaries soon. Despite signs of de‑escalation, the consequences of the crisis are still being felt: thousands of sailors remain in the region, supply disruptions persist, and high energy prices continue to weigh on global demand, while restoring logistics may take a long time.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 1.30%.

According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) March meeting, many policymakers considered further rate hikes possible if the energy crisis caused by the conflict around Iran persists. Participants noted that short‑term supply disruptions can be viewed as temporary, but prolonged increases in energy prices could strengthen inflation expectations and lead to more persistent price growth in the economy. Some board members advocated more decisive tightening, emphasizing the need to act without long pauses if the economy avoids a significant slowdown. Despite this, at both the March and subsequent April meetings, the Bank of Japan kept the key rate at 0.75%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose above 0.72 US dollars and reached a four‑year high amid a weakening US currency. The Australian dollar was supported by growing optimism around a possible peace agreement in the Middle East, which reduced demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. Meanwhile, domestic economic data came in weaker than expected: in March, Australia unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit for the first time in more than eight years. Additional support for the Australian currency continues to come from the recent central‑bank rate hike to 4.35%.

On Thursday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) held around 0.595 US dollars after rising more than 1% in the previous session, when the currency reached a two‑month high. The market was supported by increased optimism around a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran, which boosted investor interest in riskier assets. Domestic labor‑market data in New Zealand were mixed and did little to change monetary‑policy expectations. Unemployment fell slightly more than expected, but employment growth was weaker than expected. The market still sees the probability of a near‑term rate hike as relatively low, although tightening in the summer is still priced in due to persistent inflation risks linked to high energy prices.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices renewed their historical highs amid a combination of strong corporate earnings and declining energy prices. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.73%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.81%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.31%. The decline in oil prices became an important factor – it partially eased inflation concerns. This occurred against the backdrop of geopolitical signals indicating relative stability in the Middle East despite recent attacks.

The macroeconomic picture remains mixed: JOLTS data confirm the resilience of the labor market, while business activity indicators point to persistent price pressure. This supports a more hawkish tone from some Federal Reserve representatives and maintains uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. At the company level, Intel stood out with growth amid news of possible cooperation with Apple. Micron shares also rose significantly thanks to new products, and Amazon received support due to the development of its logistics operations. Meanwhile, Palantir declined due to investor disappointment in its expectations, and AMD came under pressure ahead of its earnings release.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.80% on Friday, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.40%. The improvement in sentiment was largely driven by falling global energy prices amid expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additional support came from stronger‑than‑expected quarterly corporate results.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held near 0.78 per US dollar, remaining close to historical highs. The currency is supported both by expectations regarding Swiss National Bank policy and by steady demand for safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical tensions. Recent data showed that inflation in Switzerland accelerated to 0.6% in April – the highest level in 16 months. The main factor was rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. This is the second consecutive acceleration of inflation, and the figure exceeded the regulator’s average estimates of 0.5% for the current and next years. The franc continues to benefit from a combination of its “safe haven” status and the relative stability of the domestic macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by about 4% and dropped below $102 per barrel, losing the gains of the previous session. Pressure on prices came from statements by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite recent attacks on the UAE. An additional factor was confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open: according to Hegseth, two US commercial vessels successfully passed through it with military support, which repelled attacks using drones, missiles, and armed boats. This reduced market concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 was also not traded yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by-0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.19%.

In the first quarter of 2026, Hong Kong’s economy delivered a phenomenal result, recording growth of 5.9% year‑on‑year. This figure not only exceeded conservative analyst expectations of 3.5%, but also became the strongest economic surge for the autonomy since the second quarter of 2021, accelerating from 4.0% at the end of last year. In quarterly terms, seasonally adjusted Hong Kong GDP increased by 2.9%, which is also a five‑year high. Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy tied to Federal Reserve rates due to the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, such resilience looks like a strong signal of a full recovery of the Asian financial hub.

In the May Financial Stability Report, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman stated that the national financial system remains highly resilient amid escalating global threats. According to the regulator, the country’s commercial banks have solid capital and liquidity buffers, confirmed by recent stress tests. This allows the banking sector to continue lending to the economy and helping borrowers cope with pressure in foreign funding markets in case the situation worsens. However, the prolonged armed conflict between the US and Iran has already begun to slow New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery. Rising fuel prices and overall uncertainty are hitting consumer activity, worsening labor‑market projections.

On Monday, the US stock market declined. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.13%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.41%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.19% lower. The market came under pressure from a sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which intensified investor concerns about further inflation acceleration. Tensions surged after an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran. The situation worsened following statements from Donald Trump about plans to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, to which Tehran responded with threats against US forces. Against this backdrop, commodity and industrial sectors performed the worst, while energy companies posted gains.

European stock markets fell sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions, which heightened fears of an energy crisis and its economic consequences. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 1.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.71% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 2.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.14%. Eurozone and pan‑European indices came under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions triggered another spike in oil prices and tightened financial conditions. Reports of mutual attacks and military actions in the Persian Gulf increased uncertainty, pushing bond yields higher and strengthening expectations of further ECB tightening. The banking sector suffered from rising borrowing costs, while higher electricity prices weighed on industrial and tech companies. An additional negative factor was the US announcement of new tariffs on European cars, which dragged down automaker stocks and deepened the market sell‑off.
WTI crude rose about 3%, approaching $105 per barrel amid a sharp escalation in the Middle East. The trigger was a confrontation between US and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz: according to US reports, Iran launched cruise missiles at military and commercial vessels, while American forces intercepted drones and small boats to protect shipping routes. Additional concerns were fueled by reports of intercepted missiles, a fire at the Fujairah oil terminal, and a drone strike on a tanker near the strait – one of the first significant incidents involving infrastructure in recent weeks.

Silver fell more than 2%, dropping toward $73 per ounce and partially correcting its previous rally. The metal came under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions, which revived fears of accelerating inflation. The prolonged conflict has already driven energy prices sharply higher, increasing the risk of prolonged or even tighter monetary policy. Since the start of the confrontation, silver has lost roughly one‑fifth of its value.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) and China’s FTSE China A50 were closed on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 1.24%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.37%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.71 USD, losing support after the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Although the RBA raised the cash rate for the third consecutive time, by 25 basis points to 4.35%, the highest since the post‑pandemic spike, the regulator’s tone was softer than expected. The decision passed with an 8-1 vote, but policymakers hinted at a possible pause and a “data‑dependent” approach, disappointing AUD buyers who expected a stronger signal for continued tightening. Geopolitical tensions added further pressure: the threat of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed oil supply disruptions triggered a flight to the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.586 USD amid a sharp escalation of the geopolitical crisis. A direct military clash between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf, with the involvement of the UAE, jeopardized the four‑week ceasefire and crushed investor appetite for risk assets. Market attention is now focused on Wednesday’s release of New Zealand’s Q1 labor‑market report. Investors are trying to assess how severely the national economy has been affected by the energy shock.

On Friday, the US stock market posted a sharp rise. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) slipped 0.31%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.29%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 (US100) closed 0.94% higher. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updated their all‑time highs. Apple shares rose more than 3% thanks to strong earnings and upbeat guidance, supported by robust iPhone sales and stable performance in the Chinese market. In the energy sector, ExxonMobil and Chevron posted moderate gains after reporting profits above expectations. Tech stocks remained in focus as well: Meta stabilized after recent declines, and Nvidia added over 1% amid ongoing discussions about AI‑related investment prospects.

In the first week of May, investors will face a new wave of corporate earnings, with major companies from technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and entertainment set to report. At the same time, market attention will shift to US macroeconomic data, with a full set of labor‑market indicators scheduled for release. These include the April nonfarm payrolls report, ADP employment data, Q1 productivity and labor‑cost figures, and job‑openings statistics. Expectations point to slower job growth compared to March, moderate wage acceleration, and unemployment remaining broadly unchanged.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed $80,000, hitting a three‑month high amid a broad rally in risk assets. Investor sentiment was boosted by progress in the US Senate on stablecoin regulation, seen as a key step toward legitimizing the digital assets industry. Institutional demand also supported the move: US spot ETFs recorded $630 million in weekly inflows, underscoring the asset’s resilience after a 12% gain in April. Geopolitical tensions remain extremely high. Donald Trump’s statement about providing military escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp protest from Tehran, which viewed it as a violation of the ceasefire. Despite ongoing volatility in the conflict zone weighing on traditional markets, Bitcoin continues to act as “digital gold” and an alternative risk asset, largely ignoring escalation risks.

Most European markets were closed on Friday due to a banking holiday. The only major index trading was the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100), which ended the day 0.14% lower. After a busy end to April, marked by key economic data, central‑bank decisions, and corporate earnings, Europe’s early‑May agenda will be somewhat calmer. With rate‑hold decisions already announced, attention will shift to the next steps from regulators: central banks of Sweden and Norway will publish their decisions, while the ECB will release analytical materials and projections accompanied by speeches from policymakers. A key macroeconomic event will be Germany’s foreign‑trade data, where a decline in the trade surplus is expected due to higher energy prices and increased imports. Additional insight into industrial conditions will come from production and order figures, which may show signs of recovery. The UK will release housing‑market data, while Switzerland will publish inflation, unemployment, and consumer‑sentiment indicators. Meanwhile, earnings season continues for major European companies in the banking, industrial, and energy sectors.

On Friday, WTI crude prices fell to nearly $101 per barrel, partially giving back weekly gains amid rising expectations that the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran may evolve into a more stable agreement. Reports emerged of a new proposal from Tehran, and Donald Trump noted progress in negotiations, though he expressed doubts about reaching a final deal. Markets are also watching the political dimension: the US president faces a 60‑day limit under the War Powers Act, requiring either congressional approval or troop withdrawal. The administration maintains that the ceasefire has effectively halted active hostilities. Since the conflict began in late February, oil prices have surged nearly 60%, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced global supply.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 0.38% on Friday. China’s FTSE China A50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were closed, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.74%.

This week in China, market attention will focus on April foreign‑trade data, which will help assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on the country’s economy, as well as private‑sector activity indicators, including services PMIs. In Japan, investors will analyze the minutes of the March central‑bank meeting for clues on future policy and monitor wage‑growth trends.

In Australia, another rate hike is expected amid rising inflationary pressures linked to global risks. Across the region, a large batch of macroeconomic releases is scheduled, including inflation, GDP, labor‑market data, foreign‑trade figures, and manufacturing PMIs, offering a broader view of economic conditions in Asia and neighboring regions.