Archive for Financial News

The ECB is getting closer to tightening monetary policy. China shows weak economic data

by JustForex

According to the data released on Friday, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to 59.1 from 65.2 in April. The figure was lower than all economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which had an average score of 64. The US consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since 2011 as remaining concerns about inflation clouded Americans’ views of the economy.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.47% (-1.49% for the week) and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.39% (-1.41% for the week). Technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 3.82% on Friday (-0.99% for the week). Аt the end of the week, all three indices were negative.

Major European indices traded higher on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 2.10% on Friday (+2.96% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 2.52% (+2.51% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.68% (+0.74% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) jumped by +2.55% (+0.41% for the week). Consumer price index in France increased 0.4% in April (after +1.4% in March). On an annualized basis, the inflation rate reached 4.8%. The annualized consumer price index in Spain declined from 8.4% to 8.3%. EU industrial production fell by 1.8% in March 2022. With the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian goods and energy, the European economy is starting to show signs of slowing down. More and more ECB officials are leaning toward an interest rate hike at the July meeting. At the same time, analysts predict that the ECB is likely to decide at its next meeting to end its economic stimulus program.

The G7 countries agreed to increase the economic and political isolation of Russia. In addition, the statement notes that the G7 countries will supply arms to Ukraine, if necessary – for a long time. Also, the statement said that the G7 countries will never recognize the borders that Russia is trying to change through military aggression. G7 countries also criticized Minsk for its position on Ukraine. The G7 countries also intend to step up efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy as quickly as possible. This includes phasing out coal and oil.

For its part, Russia has begun to threaten the EU openly. “If the EU actually approves the procedure for Ukraine to start entering the European Union, this will mean the end of the European Union,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. At the same time, Russia began to openly threaten Finland and Sweden, which intend to join NATO in the near future. “As soon as Finland and Sweden become members of NATO and units of the alliance are there, these territories will become a possible target for the Russian military,” said Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Polyansky.

Analysts at the American Institute for War Research (ISW) believe that Russia has almost no chance of success in a war with Ukraine. The new phase of the war will follow one of three developmental paths:

  • The Russian Federation will stop and decide to annex already occupied territories;
  • The Russians will try to mobilize additional forces (with mobilization not excluding military collapse);
  • Putin will continue to pursue impossible military goals with insufficient resources and eventually collapse in the coming months.

In commodity markets, gold is still under pressure from high government bond yields and a strong dollar. Once the dollar index begins to decline and monetary policy is close to normalization, gold and silver will once again become attractive assets to buy. But at the moment, there is no fundamental reason for the price of precious metals to rise.

Oil prices rose on Friday, but at the opening session on Monday started to show a sharp decline amid weak data from China, which again increased investors’ concerns over the demand.

Asian markets closed in the green territory last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.64% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.68% over the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up +1.93% over the week. China’s economic figures for April disappointed analysts. Retail sales in China fell by 11.1% year on year. Industrial production fell by 2.9% in April compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.1%. Auto sales in April were down by 31.6% from a year ago. Local lockdowns in China continue to impact manufacturing and business activity seriously. China’s central bank on Monday extended the maturity of medium-term loans, keeping the interest rate unchanged for the fourth month in a row, in line with market expectations. India banned wheat exports to ensure the country’s food security.

In the commodities market, wheat futures (+6.45%), gasoline (+5.05%), coffee (+1.85%) and soybeans (+1.5%) showed the biggest gains at the end of the week. Lumber futures (-7.1%), silver (-5.55%), natural gas (-5.23%), palladium (-4.83%), gold (-3.85%), orange juice (-3.49%), platinum (-2.64%) and copper (-2.4%) showed the biggest drop.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,023.89 +93.81 (+2.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,196.66 +466.36 (+1.47%)

DAX (DE40) 14,027.93 +288.29 (+2.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,418.15 +184.81 (+2.55%)

USD Index 104.47 -0.39 (-0.37%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 15:55 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 17:15 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Crude Oil Remains Imbalanced

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Another week of May brings a new decline in Oil. Brent is retreating and hanging around $109.50.

A season of active car travel is starting in the US. In this light, demand for gasoline, which is getting more and more expensive, is rising. As a result, the problems with satisfying the demand are also getting more complicated and may continue pushing gasoline prices upwards.

The latest report from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count in the US is rising too slowly to provide enough support to the commodity market – the indicator gained only 6 units, up to 563 – while in Canada it decreased by 5 units. At the same time, shale oil production remains rather passive.

There are too many market emotions around geopolitical tensions. For example, earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Germany was planning to stop importing Russian oil by the end of the year even if the European Union fails to agree on a similar decision. In a time of insufficient oil supply, such news may eliminate negative vibes a little bit.

In the H4 chart, having completed the correction at 101.55 and then broken two important levels, at 108.75 and 112.60, Brent continues forming the ascending wave with the target at 118.15. Today, the pair may correct to test 108.75 from above and then form one more ascending structure towards 116.15. Later, the market may break the latter level and continue moving within the uptrend to reach the above-mentioned target. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: after breaking 0 to the upside, its signal line is growing within the histogram area, which means that the uptrend in the price chart may continue.

As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent is forming another ascending structure from 101.55 to 116.15; it has already reached the short-term target at 112.60 and is currently correcting to test 108.75 from above. After the correction is over, the market may resume growing to break 116.15 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 118.15. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 20 and may resume growing to break 50. After that, the line is expected to continue moving upwards and reach 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USDCAD Intermediate Correction To End Near 1.341

By Orbex

The USDCAD structure indicates the construction of a large correction wave IV. This is part of a global cycle impulse and consists of sub-waves Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ.

On the current chart, we see the final part of the primary impulse wave Ⓒ. Wave Ⓒ consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). A deep intermediate correction (4) is currently under development. This could take the form of a minor triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.

In the near future, prices should rise in the last minor sub-wave Z. It is most likely to be a minute double zigzag, and will end its pattern near 1.341.

At that price level, correction (4) will be at 61.8% of previous impulse wave (3).

According to the second option, the formation of the intermediate correction (4) has already been fully completed. In this scenario, it has the form not of a triple, but of a double zigzag W-X-Y.

Thus, in the last section of the chart, we see the development of the initial part of the intermediate wave (5). This can take the form of a minor impulse 1-2-3-4-5.

A price decline in the sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5 is then likely, and the entire intermediate wave (5) is likely to end near 1.195.

At the level of 1.195, impulse (5) will be at the 50% Fibonacci extension of intermediate impulse (3).


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Holds Onto Recent Gains

By Orbex

USDCHF grinds higher

The US dollar consolidates its gains as traders ponder whether inflation has peaked. A close above the parity, last seen in November 2019 indicates strong bullish sentiment. Trend followers have been eager to buy at pullbacks and may continue to do so in this directional market. The RSI’s overbought condition has prompted intraday buyers to take profit. 0.9960 is the closest support and 0.9870 a second line of defence for the bulls. A rebound would bring the greenback back to a three-year high at 1.0120.

USDNOK rides trendline

The Norwegian krone recoups losses as oil prices bounce back. The US dollar has been grinding up a rising trend line after a bullish breakout in early May. Sentiment remains extremely bullish and the pair is on its way to the psychological level of 10.0000. The RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation and a break below the trend line may cause a retracement as buyers would be unwilling to chase after higher bids. The demand zone around 9.6300 is a key level to keep short-term sentiment upbeat.

GER 40 tests daily resistance

The Dax 40 bounces higher amid bargain hunting after earlier sell-off. The index found support at the base of the mid-March rally at 13300. A bullish RSI divergence revealed a deceleration in the latest sell-off and a close above 13850 prompted sellers to cover their bets. The daily resistance at 14300 is a major hurdle and its breach could turn sentiment around. An overbought RSI may cause a pullback to test buyers’ commitment. 13750 is a fresh support and 13300 a floor to keep the current rebound relevant.

Test your strategy on how the CHF will fare with Orbex – Open Your Account Now. 


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals speculator bets overall were lower this week with four out of the five metals markets we cover seeing lower bets on the week. The metals markets are seeing a cool off in their speculative positions as well as their prices as most of these markets are down from a short-term peak in early March.

The only market with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (2,904 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-8,986 contracts), Gold (-5,853 contracts), Copper (-7,003 contracts) and Palladium (-493 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77
Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57
Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9
Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45
Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33
Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18
Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100
Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26
Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11
Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0
Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49
Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 193,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.6 23.1 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.0 3.1
– Net Position: 193,315 -227,756 34,441
– Gross Longs: 288,947 132,251 52,098
– Gross Shorts: 95,632 360,007 17,657
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.9 56.8 57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.1 21.0 19.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.9 36.9 17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 58.3 9.4
– Net Position: 19,082 -30,519 11,437
– Gross Longs: 59,829 52,637 24,862
– Gross Shorts: 40,747 83,156 13,425
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.4 69.0 9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.1 30.3 -9.9

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 50.6 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.4 40.1 7.5
– Net Position: -22,626 19,249 3,377
– Gross Longs: 57,510 93,318 17,183
– Gross Shorts: 80,136 74,069 13,806
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 72.7 44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.3 38.9 -19.5

 


Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.6 39.8 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 47.9 6.1
– Net Position: 1,363 -5,373 4,010
– Gross Longs: 28,774 26,293 8,029
– Gross Shorts: 27,411 31,666 4,019
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 97.6 17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.1 21.2 -38.4

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5 59.0 11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.2 20.1 13.3
– Net Position: -3,245 3,434 -189
– Gross Longs: 1,013 5,209 982
– Gross Shorts: 4,258 1,775 1,171
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.0 96.1 32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 11.8 -48.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets higher this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom.

Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts).

The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 10,439,124 33 -2,600,587 3 3,030,504 97 -429,917 10
FedFunds 1,750,404 55 49,162 46 -49,266 54 104 60
2-Year 2,264,774 21 -126,829 57 201,609 64 -74,780 17
Long T-Bond 1,207,560 50 15,453 90 -4,991 19 -10,462 44
10-Year 3,722,697 45 -85,972 59 268,376 54 -182,404 36
5-Year 3,813,677 38 -325,674 26 502,383 75 -176,709 32

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.3 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 46.3 8.2
– Net Position: -2,600,587 3,030,504 -429,917
– Gross Longs: 356,101 7,861,403 422,820
– Gross Shorts: 2,956,688 4,830,899 852,737
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 96.6 9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 3.2 -0.4

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 75.2 2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 78.0 2.3
– Net Position: 49,162 -49,266 104
– Gross Longs: 103,238 1,316,147 39,627
– Gross Shorts: 54,076 1,365,413 39,523
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 53.9 60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -10.3 53.3

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 77.3 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 68.4 9.5
– Net Position: -126,829 201,609 -74,780
– Gross Longs: 275,153 1,751,572 140,782
– Gross Shorts: 401,982 1,549,963 215,562
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 8.7 11.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.6 83.0 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 69.9 11.8
– Net Position: -325,674 502,383 -176,709
– Gross Longs: 291,527 3,167,247 271,640
– Gross Shorts: 617,201 2,664,864 448,349
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 74.5 32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.7 16.6

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 76.5 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 69.2 13.3
– Net Position: -85,972 268,376 -182,404
– Gross Longs: 406,123 2,846,309 313,590
– Gross Shorts: 492,095 2,577,933 495,994
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 53.8 36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 59.4 -46.2 -0.3

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 82.9 11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 66.3 20.3
– Net Position: -95,416 207,218 -111,802
– Gross Longs: 56,783 1,034,536 141,487
– Gross Shorts: 152,199 827,318 253,289
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.0 93.4 48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 0.4 12.4

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.1 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 72.5 13.8
– Net Position: 15,453 -4,991 -10,462
– Gross Longs: 131,916 870,932 156,698
– Gross Shorts: 116,463 875,923 167,160
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 18.5 44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.6 1.9

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 84.6 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 61.6 9.8
– Net Position: -311,513 290,655 20,858
– Gross Longs: 45,084 1,069,894 144,208
– Gross Shorts: 356,597 779,239 123,350
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 57.2 43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 0.8 -9.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Futures: This Week’s Energy Charts

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (5,177 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (91 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-10,898 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-3,897 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-7,003 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77
Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57
Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9
Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45
Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33
Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18
Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100
Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26
Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11
Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0
Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49
Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 310,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 321,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.4 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.8 2.7
– Net Position: 310,803 -354,479 43,676
– Gross Longs: 415,170 614,716 90,689
– Gross Shorts: 104,367 969,195 47,013
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 98.5 76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 2.2 3.2

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 48.1 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 30.5 4.6
– Net Position: -31,215 30,562 653
– Gross Longs: 33,423 83,639 8,698
– Gross Shorts: 64,638 53,077 8,045
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 44.1 18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 14.9 -40.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 37.9 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.3 32.2 2.2
– Net Position: -112,529 64,006 48,523
– Gross Longs: 234,306 420,582 73,144
– Gross Shorts: 346,835 356,576 24,621
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.8 51.0 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -9.1 9.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 50.9 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 65.6 4.0
– Net Position: 31,378 -44,072 12,694
– Gross Longs: 73,929 152,809 24,799
– Gross Shorts: 42,551 196,881 12,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 93.0 97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 3.7 34.1

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 91 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 36.7 2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.2 0.0 0.2
– Net Position: -13,263 12,644 619
– Gross Longs: 19,888 12,644 703
– Gross Shorts: 33,151 0 84
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 inf to 1 8.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.8 41.9 41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.0 16.3 -11.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world.

Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts).

Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77
Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57
Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9
Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45
Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33
Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18
Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100
Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26
Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11
Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0
Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49
Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92

 


CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 42.7 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 70.2 12.6
– Net Position: 470,908 -415,345 -55,563
– Gross Longs: 573,327 644,830 134,903
– Gross Shorts: 102,419 1,060,175 190,466
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 12.8 11.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 1.3 1.1

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.8 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 73.5 6.6
– Net Position: 187,185 -220,611 33,426
– Gross Longs: 251,330 365,263 86,129
– Gross Shorts: 64,145 585,874 52,703
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 26.3 49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -3.4 -9.6

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 56.1 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 71.9 3.1
– Net Position: 32,555 -33,559 1,004
– Gross Longs: 50,564 119,399 7,690
– Gross Shorts: 18,009 152,958 6,686
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 36.5 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.3 -20.9

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 48.2 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 69.5 11.0
– Net Position: 174,608 -147,698 -26,910
– Gross Longs: 225,260 334,792 49,376
– Gross Shorts: 50,652 482,490 76,286
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 33.1 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.8 1.3

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 45.8 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 77.9 5.0
– Net Position: 100,596 -118,831 18,235
– Gross Longs: 118,463 169,761 36,820
– Gross Shorts: 17,867 288,592 18,585
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 21.8 81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.6 10.0

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.1 12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 77.1 5.9
– Net Position: 84,132 -108,059 23,927
– Gross Longs: 110,648 169,583 45,065
– Gross Shorts: 26,516 277,642 21,138
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 26.8 57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.0 22.2 -25.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 38.1 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 49.7 12.1
– Net Position: 39,803 -35,783 -4,020
– Gross Longs: 111,188 117,509 33,291
– Gross Shorts: 71,385 153,292 37,311
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 66.7 67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.7 8.4 22.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 38.0 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 43.0 12.8
– Net Position: 16,360 -10,817 -5,543
– Gross Longs: 66,483 82,353 22,102
– Gross Shorts: 50,123 93,170 27,645
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 80.7 67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.1 40.4 13.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 33.8 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 79.6 3.1
– Net Position: 81,759 -92,603 10,844
– Gross Longs: 94,579 68,251 17,191
– Gross Shorts: 12,820 160,854 6,347
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 23.9 81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 2.7 -14.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.1 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 53.6 4.0
– Net Position: 21,046 -26,770 5,724
– Gross Longs: 87,140 124,216 17,042
– Gross Shorts: 66,094 150,986 11,318
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 59.9 53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -30.6

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 39.1 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 44.9 10.9
– Net Position: 21,686 -17,779 -3,907
– Gross Longs: 111,546 120,631 29,835
– Gross Shorts: 89,860 138,410 33,742
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 34.4 92.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -11.9 1.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Stock Markets: “What Happens When the Dip Keeps Dipping?”

These can “work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend”

By Elliott Wave International

It’s been a rocky road for the Dow and the S&P 500 index since the start of the year. And, even longer for the NASDAQ, which topped back in November.

Indeed, speaking of technology stocks, some of the most popular names took a big beating in April alone. As the Wall Street Journal noted (April 29):

The FAANG stocks, consisting of the popular quintet of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet, have collectively lost more than $1 trillion in market value [in April], the most since Facebook started trading in May 2012.

So, you might think that this bumpy ride in the stock market would have many investors at least considering moving to the sidelines, especially those with a sizeable nest egg to protect.

Well, according to a UBS Investor Sentiment survey of millionaire investors — conducted between April 5 and April 18 — most of those surveyed plan to stick with stocks.

Here’s a May 4 CNBC headline:

More wealthy investors would rather hold or add stocks than sell if markets keep sliding, survey says

Granted, this survey was taken before some of the roughest trading days in April. Still, it shows a recent willingness by even the “cream of the crop” in society to “buy the dip.”

No doubt, that same lingering bullishness has persisted in other nations too.

With that in mind, the April Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which provides analysis of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided an object lesson in buying the dip, using past bear markets in Germany’s DAX as examples:

[These two graphs illustrate] the multi-week and multi-month rallies that work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend. The left graph depicts every plus-10% rally from March 2000 to March 2003, a three-year span that saw the DAX drop by 74%. The right graph illustrates the bear market from July 2007 to March 2009, which saw seven rallies of 10% or more.

So, “buying the dip” can be a financially dangerous strategy.

In our view, it’s best to consult a financial market’s Elliott wave structure before making a decision about your portfolio.

If you’d like to learn how the Elliott wave model can help you analyze financial markets, you are encouraged to read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Thus eloquently spoke Sherlock Holmes to his constant companion, Dr. Watson, in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Sign of Four. This advice is a capsule summary of what you need to know to be successful with Elliott. The best approach is deductive reasoning. By knowing what Elliott rules will not allow, you can deduce that whatever remains is the proper perspective, no matter how improbable it may seem otherwise. By applying all the rules of extensions, alternation, overlapping, channeling, volume and the rest, you have a much more formidable arsenal than you might imagine at first glance. Unfortunately for many, the approach requires thought and work and rarely provides a mechanical signal. However, this kind of thinking, basically an elimination process, squeezes the best out of what Elliott has to offer and besides, it’s fun! We sincerely urge you to give it a try.

You can read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free once you become a Club EWI member!

Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free, unlimited and instant access now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stock Markets: “What Happens When the Dip Keeps Dipping?”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

By Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon 

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchmark asset, but many are also pegged to other fiat currencies issued by governments like the euro and yen. As a result, the price of stablecoins is meant to fluctuate very little, unlike high-profile cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum that are prone to sudden ups and downs.

The first stablecoin, created in 2014, was Tether, which many other stablecoins are modeled after. Users receive one token for every dollar they deposit. In theory, the tokens can then be converted back into the original currency at any time, also at a one-for-one exchange rate.

As of May 11, 2022, there were about US$83 billion in Tether outstanding, or a bit less than half of the $172 billion market capitalization of all stablecoins worldwide. The next-largest is known as USD Coin, which has a market cap of about $49 billion.

Why stablecoins matter

Originally, stablecoins were primarily used to buy other cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, because many cryptocurrency exchanges didn’t have access to traditional banking. They are more useful than country-issued currencies because you can use them 24 hours a day, seven days a week, anywhere in the world – without relying on banks. Money transfers take seconds to complete.

Another useful feature of stablecoins is that they can work with so-called smart contracts on blockchains, which, unlike conventional contracts, require no legal authority to be executed. The code in the software automatically dictates the terms of the agreement and how and when money will be transferred. This makes stablecoins programmable in ways that dollars can’t be.

Smart contracts have given rise to the use of stablecoins not only in seamless trading but also lending, payments, insurance, prediction markets and decentralized autonomous organizations – businesses that operate with limited human intervention.

Collectively, these software-based financial services are known as decentralized finance, or DeFi.

Proponents hold that moving money via stablecoins is faster, cheaper and easier to integrate into software compared with fiat currency.

Others say the lack of regulation creates big risks for the financial system. In a recent paper, economists Gary B. Gorton and Jeffery Zhang draw an analogy to the middle of the 19th century era when banks issued their own private currencies. They say stablecoins could lead to the same problems observed in that era, when there were frequent runs because people couldn’t agree on the value of privately issued currencies.

A reminder of those risks came in May 2022 as a so-called algorithmic stablecoin known as TerraUSD, or UST, plunged in value. Algorithmic stablecoins use a complex system of burning, or creating tokens for profit, to maintain their peg.

As a result of these issues, regulators have taken greater interest in them recently.

About the Author:

The Conversation U.S. publishes short, accessible explanations of newsworthy subjects by academics in their areas of expertise.

This article was updated to add reference to UST and algorithmic stablecoins on May 11, 2022.The Conversation

Stephen McKeon, Associate Professor of Finance, University of Oregon

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.