Archive for Metals

13 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (22,398 contracts) with Platinum (10,418 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Silver (65 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-4,831 contracts) with Steel (-557 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver, Steel & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent), Steel (91 percent) and Copper (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (69.8 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (99.9 percent)
Copper (87.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (62.6 percent)
Platinum (68.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.0 percent)
Palladium (28.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.9 percent)
Steel (91.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.6 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (59 percent) and Copper (50 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (41 percent), Gold (27 percent) and Palladium (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data while Steel (6 percent) also has a positive trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.1 percent)
Silver (58.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.6 percent)
Copper (49.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.5 percent)
Platinum (41.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.3 percent)
Palladium (21.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.6 percent)
Steel (6.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 202,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.425.410.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.369.85.8
– Net Position:202,419-224,58222,163
– Gross Longs:279,799128,09451,559
– Gross Shorts:77,380352,67629,396
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.633.645.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.3-27.117.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 65 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.625.418.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.166.38.2
– Net Position:53,212-71,27518,063
– Gross Longs:84,82644,36232,322
– Gross Shorts:31,614115,63714,259
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.03.967.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.7-48.90.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 22,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.025.07.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.841.44.9
– Net Position:42,694-49,5066,812
– Gross Longs:144,57275,17721,599
– Gross Shorts:101,878124,68314,787
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.614.561.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.5-50.834.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.018.310.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.748.24.4
– Net Position:19,007-24,3165,309
– Gross Longs:51,33014,9128,890
– Gross Shorts:32,32339,2283,581
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.832.939.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.1-36.9-3.9

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.055.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.712.28.5
– Net Position:-8,7668,989-223
– Gross Longs:5,75611,4861,529
– Gross Shorts:14,5222,4971,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 14.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.676.028.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.4-19.4-15.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.179.41.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.474.71.0
– Net Position:-1,2711,138133
– Gross Longs:3,38919,032370
– Gross Shorts:4,66017,894237
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.59.046.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-6.55.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 Apr

Gold: Setting Near-Term Price Targets

This was our “initial upside target” — which has now been exceeded. What’s next?

By Elliott Wave International

Around the first week of the year, the outlook for gold was not looking promising, at least according to this Jan. 5 headline (Reuters):

Gold set for weekly decline as dollar, yields climb

The rally in gold which started in early October continued to struggle for much of the rest of January.

Even though the mainstream media was looking to so-called fundamentals — such as the action of the dollar or bond yields — Elliott Wave International focused on the patterns of investor psychology — as reflected by Elliott waves.

Indeed, on Jan. 24, the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which focuses on major U.S. financial markets, said:

Spot [Gold] made its lowest close since January 17 today. Still, prices remain above $1972.89, which keeps the short-term bullish potential dominant. The [unfolding Elliott wave] should carry gold well above $2250 as the rally’s pattern progresses.

Keep in mind that when this analysis was offered more than two months ago, the price of gold was trading around $2013 — a far cry from our price target above $2250.

Now, fast forward to April 1 and this headline (CNBC):

Treasury yields jump to start second quarter

As you’ll recall, rising bond yields were mentioned in the media as a negative for gold back in January.

But what did gold do on April 1? Correct — it hit another all-time high.

Not only that, April 1 was the day that our price target was reached.

Here’s a quote from the April 1 U.S. Short Term Update:

The initial upside target for [Gold] was “above $2250,” which we first stated in the January 24 Short Term Update and reaffirmed throughout February and March. Gold hit this target today when spot prices pushed to $2263.64 intraday.

On April 2, gold traded even higher.

Remember, Elliott Wave International doesn’t make forecasts for financial markets — like gold — based on common beliefs about “fundamentals” which investors cannot count on.

Instead, we arrive at price targets based on Elliott wave analysis.

If you’d like to learn more about Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this “must read” book:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

If you’d like to learn about the Wave Principle, know that you can gain complimentary access to the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free.

Just follow the link and you can have the Wall Street bestseller on your computer in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold: Setting Near-Term Price Targets. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Metals
08 Apr

Gold hits new record high amid favourable factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold’s price soared to a new record high on Monday, stabilising around 2344.00 USD per troy ounce. A confluence of factors is currently bolstering the precious metal’s value.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a significant driver, positioning gold as a preferred “safe-haven” investment. Additionally, central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, while global exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the metal’s price continue to show keen interest.

Recent US job market data for March surpassed expectations, indicating a robust end to the first quarter for the US economy. These developments could impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, as lower rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price increase.

Since the start of the year, gold has appreciated over 12% in value, showcasing an impressive performance for what is traditionally viewed as a conservative asset.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart for XAU/USD indicates that a growth wave reached 2330.00, followed by the formation of a consolidation range around this level. This range has now expanded to 2353.85. A technical retracement to 2330.00 is anticipated (testing from above), with potential subsequent growth to 2380.33 as a local target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line well above zero and pointing upwards, supports this growth scenario.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD established support at 2269.00, completing a growth structure to 2330.53. A consolidation range has formed around this level, now extended to 2353.85. A corrective move to 2327.50 (testing from above) is expected, potentially leading to a new growth wave towards 2386.36. This forecast is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line preparing to drop to 50 before climbing back to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
06 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (7,956 contracts) with Silver (2,311 contracts), Platinum (1,394 contracts) and Steel (1,074 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,787 contracts) and Palladium (-302 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Steel (94 percent) lead the metals markets this week and are at or near the top of their ranges. Gold (70 percent) and Copper (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is just at the Extreme-Bearish cutoff (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Platinum (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (96.5 percent)
Copper (62.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (65.7 percent)
Platinum (41.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.2 percent)
Palladium (19.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (93.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.5 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (47 percent) and Copper (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (30.1 percent), Palladium (14 percent) and Steel (8 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (30.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.6 percent)
Silver (46.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.3 percent)
Copper (40.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (62.3 percent)
Platinum (0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.0 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (7.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 207,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.325.49.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.870.66.1
– Net Position:207,250-225,71418,464
– Gross Longs:281,399127,11448,931
– Gross Shorts:74,149352,82830,467
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.833.233.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-27.1-2.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.125.717.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.266.39.1
– Net Position:53,147-67,70614,559
– Gross Longs:83,56542,93829,775
– Gross Shorts:30,418110,64415,216
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.08.447.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.7-37.5-5.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.229.78.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.339.65.1
– Net Position:20,296-28,9468,650
– Gross Longs:126,86687,43423,592
– Gross Shorts:106,570116,38014,942
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.635.573.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.5-46.156.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.224.110.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.541.64.1
– Net Position:8,589-13,9825,393
– Gross Longs:45,84519,3118,703
– Gross Shorts:37,25633,2933,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.058.140.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.31.2-7.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.361.18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.29.38.1
– Net Position:-10,20210,18418
– Gross Longs:4,77612,0131,618
– Gross Shorts:14,9781,8291,600
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.983.142.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.6-14.07.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.477.71.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.475.60.9
– Net Position:-714480234
– Gross Longs:3,65918,460448
– Gross Shorts:4,37317,980214
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.66.558.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.6-7.73.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
04 Apr

Expert Shares the Best Silver Stocks for the Breakout

Source: Ron Struthers (4/3/24) 

Ron Struthers of Struthers Resource Stock Report compares six silver stocks to the SLV ETF, shares Pan American, a gold producer with many silver lines, and touches on Mag Silver, which he believes is not well known enough. 

This chart compares the silver ETD ‘SLV’ to 5 well-known silver producers, Hecla, Coeur Mining, Majestic Silver, Mag Silver, and Pan American Silver. Also, non-producer Discovery Silver.

Like gold stocks, silver stocks are beaten up. SLV shows a 40% gain since the September/October 2022 bottom, while only Coeur Mining has outperformed, but that is because it is really a gold producer now. Hecla has almost caught SLV, and Pan American shows a small gain during the comparison period.

Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE) might be remembered as a silver stock, but in 2023, 70% of its revenue came from gold. They do have about an equal value of reserves in silver compared to gold, so there is still leverage to silver. Couer stock has moved up lately, and that is related to the gold price increase.

First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) used to be one of my favorites, but I am not too happy with their performance of late. In 2023, production was 26.9 million silver equivalent (AgEq) ounces, consisting of 10.3 million silver ounces and 198,921 gold ounces. It gets about 60% of its revenue from silver.

Hecla Mining Co. (HL:NYSE) is an old well, well-known silver stock, and currently about 60% of revenues are from silver production. It should do well with rising silver prices.

Two silver stocks lagging on the chart that should do more than catch up are Pan American Silver and Mag Silver, so I am adding these two to our Selection list along with Discovery Silver as huge leverage to silver and a take-over target and also lagging silver on the chart.

Pan American Silver

Recent Price – $15.80

Dividend yield – 2.5%

Shares Outstanding – 364.7

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) trades like and is valued like a silver company, but it is really a gold company when it comes to production, so it is one of the gold stocks that has lagged recently.

However, Pan American has huge silver resources, over 1 billion ounces Measured and Indicated, so it is like a gold stock with several silver linings.

  • For 2023, silver production was 4 million ounces, and gold production was 882,900 ounces.
  • For silver, they realized a price of $22.94, so gross revenue was about $468 million.
  • For gold, they realized a price of $1,951/oz, so gross revenue was $1.72 billion.

You can see that gold is over 70% of revenues, but the stock has not responded to the rising gold price, as well as many other gold stocks.

They have 1,033,800,000 M&I ounces of silver at $6/oz in the ground is about $6 billion value, and 16,083,600 M&I ozs gold at $150/oz in the ground is about $2.4 billion.

PAAS has a market cap of US$7.76 billion, less cash plus debt, for a value of $6.12 billion. You can look at the stock as either the silver is valued cheaply or the gold is valued cheaply. The current dividend gives about a 2.5% yield, and I expect this to rise as gold and silver go higher.

Pan American enters 2024 in a solid financial position with cash and short-term investments totaling $440.9 million and the full $750.0 million available under our undrawn credit facility. Total debt of $801.6 million was related to construction and other loans, leases, and two senior notes Pan American assumed through the acquisition of Yamana.

Pan American acquired Yamana Gold this year, which will drive growth in 2024. The company is very diversified, with 11 producing mines, so rather than get into each mine, this graphic from their presentation gives you a good idea of the diversity.

Conclusion

The company is well diversified and in strong financial shape. Their gold and silver ounces are valued cheaply like most miners now, but I don’t believe the stock has responded as well to the rising gold price as others. I see it catching up.

The company believes its stock is undervalued as well because it announced a normal course issuer bid to buy back up to 5% of the stock. They will have rising revenues and cash flow for 2024.

Its guidance for 2024 is 21 to 23 million ounces of silver at AISC of $16 to $18.50 per ounce. For gold, it is projecting 880,000 to 1 million ounces of production at AISC of $1,475 to $1,575. PAAS will have very good margins for 2024, and the higher gold and silver prices will add significantly to this.

Of note, and because New Pacific Metals -NUAG is on our list, Pan American owns an ~11.6% undiluted interest in New Pacific, which is advancing the Silver Sands exploration project in Bolivia.

Don’t be surprised if Pan American buys out New Pacific. The stock is way down from 2020/2021 highs, so it has lots of legroom to the upside. We need to see a close above $17 for a higher high and confirm the turnaround. I see that soon.

I believe the stock could easily break the $20 resistance and get back close to $30 or better this year.

That makes the Call Options attractive as well. I like the January 2025 $20 Call option for US$2.50.

Mag Silver 

Recent Price – US$11.45

Share Outstanding – 103 Million

Mostly Institutional held –  owning 70%

No debt and US$68.7 million cash on Dec 31, 2023

I have followed MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MAG:NYSE American) for many years.

It is a relatively new producer because its mine just started production in 2023, so it is probably not known so much as a major silver producer. This principal asset is a 44% interest in the Juanicipio Mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico, which achieved commercial production at its 4,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) processing facility on June 1, 2023.

MAG’s partner is Fresnillo Plc., a London-based company that debuted on the London Stock Exchange in 2008 following a successful, profitable, and decades-long track record as a Mexican mining company.

Due to its history as part of the Peñoles Group, Fresnillo can trace its origins back to the commencement of Peñoles’ mining operations in 1887 and smelting and refining operations at Torreon in 1901. The Juanicipio mine is high grade at 472 g/t silver and low cost at $9.18/oz AISC, so it will be a real cash cow for Mag Silver now that it is in production. A mine does not get much better than this one, and I don’t think the stock reflects this fact.

The silver recoveries are good at 88%, and in the last half of 2024, the mine generated a free cash flow of about $103 million, of which $33.4 million went to Mag Silver.

This is a great slide from their presentation that shows free cash flow at very conservative base case pricing and at spot prices.

Free cash flow of $180 M/year at current spot prices. If we get the prices I expect, hang on tight.

The mine has M&I resources of 406,277,000 AgEq ounces — Mag Silver 44% would be 178,740 ounces. The current valuation for MAG is about $6/oz silver, which is about the average of other companies, but this is an above-average mine.

There is tons of upside exploration potential here, so it will be a very long mine life, and the potential the mill rate could be expanded in a few years to increase production.

Conclusion

About 75% of revenue is from silver, so this is a pretty pure play on silver. Cash flow for the fourth quarter was around US$36 million, and with higher silver prices, we could easily see cash flow in 2024 for MAG around $160 million.

The stock is trading at around 11.5 times cash flow, according to MarketWatch. If it simply maintains that multiple, the stock should move to about $18.00 in 2024. On the chart, the long-term downtrend has been broken, and the stock is about to break out to a higher high and above the first resistance, around $12.00.

Discovery Silver

Recent Price – CA$0.85

Shares Outstanding – 395 million.

Eric Sprott owns 23% and Institutions 37%

Many of you will remember Discovery Silver Corp. (OTCMKTS:DSVSF) as it was on the Selection List for quite a while, but we got stopped out in 2022 at $1.55.

We can buy back much cheaper now. Discovery’s flagship project is its 100%-owned Cordero project, the world’s largest undeveloped silver deposit. The feasibility study completed in February 2024 demonstrates that Cordero has the potential to be developed into a large-scale, long-life project with low unit costs and attractive economic returns that offers the combination of margin, size, and scalability.

Cordero is located close to infrastructure in a prolific mining belt in Chihuahua state, Mexico. In the chart below, Mag Silver would fit between Ays and Hecla.

Summary of Cordero feasibility study results:

  • Large-scale, long-life production: 19-year mine life with an average annual production of 37 million ounces silver equivalent in concentrate in year 1 to year 12 and 33 Moz AgEq in concentrate over the life of the mine;
  • Highly profitable: low unit costs with all-in sustaining costs per AgEq ounce of under $12.50 (U.S.) in year one to year eight and under $13.50 (U.S.) over the LOM, placing Cordero in the bottom half of the cost curve;
  • Tier 1 reserve base: reserves of silver: 302 Moz, gold: 840,000 oz, lead: 3.0 billion pounds, and zinc: 5.2 billion pounds, positioning Cordero as the largest undeveloped silver deposit globally;
  • Clear upside potential: 240 million tonnes of measured and indicated resource sit outside of the feasibility study pit, highlighting the potential to materially extend the mine life at modestly higher silver prices;
  • Low capital intensity: initial development capital expenditures of $606 million resulting in an attractive after-tax net present value to capital expenditure ratio of 2.0;
  • Attractive economics: base-case after-tax net present value discounted at 5% of $1.2 billion (U.S.), growing to $2.2 billion (U.S.) in year 4, when the project reaches final completion to 51,000 tonnes per day.

Conclusion

On December 31, Discovery had a strong cash position of almost CA$59 million, so they have plenty enough to move this through permitting to the construction phase. DSV submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment (MIA) in August 2023; the review process is ongoing.

The deposit is massive. With the Feasibility and more drilling, the Measured & Indicated Resource grew by 70 Moz AgEq to 1,202 Moz AgEq within the pit outline.

Discovery has a market cap of US$255 million less cash, a value of about US$210 million. This puts a value per ounce of a measly US$0.17 cents. I expect a lower valuation with a lower grade deposit, but the average grade in the first few years of mine life is around 100 g/t silver, which is pretty decent for an open pit.

As you can see on the chart, this had a much higher valuation with fewer ounces and about the same silver price, but it is beaten down like every miner. The downtrend is broken, and the stock is close to breaking out to a higher high and resistance around $0.95. From here, it could soon get back to the $1.50 area.

As you have probably noticed from yesterday’s report, silver broke out today, currently at $26.77 on Comex.

I bought silver coins from my dealer yesterday, Colonial Acres. It is the most silver coin I have seen in stock there for years. I would not wait long; I expect this will soon get bought up.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Mag Silver Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Pan American Silver Corp.
  3. Ron Struthers: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Pan American Silver Corp. and Discovery Silver. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Struthers Resource Stock Report Disclosures

All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication.

Metals Opinions
03 Apr

Gold hits record high; silver peaks on Fed rate cut speculation

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have soared to an all-time high of 2288.00 USD per troy ounce, while silver reached its highest in two years, driven by speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This surge followed comments from two Fed officials, Mary Daly of the FRB San Francisco and Loretta J. Mester of Cleveland. Both anticipate three rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, although they emphasised there is no immediate need for these adjustments.

The anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy has been the primary driver behind gold’s significant 11% price increase this year, demonstrating substantial gains for what is typically considered a conservative investment. However, this optimism is somewhat tempered by the current US economic data, which presents a complex backdrop for the timing of these expected rate cuts.

Investors and market watchers are now eagerly awaiting remarks from the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook soon.

Precious metals traditionally benefit in low-interest-rate environments since they do not offer yields like interest-bearing assets. This dynamic underscores the current rally in gold and silver prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart analysis: the XAU/USD pair has corrected to 2230.00 USD and initiated a new upward wave targeting 2379.80 USD. Following this target, a correction towards 2270.00 USD is anticipated before the price potentially moves towards 2430.00 USD. The MACD indicator, with its signal line well above zero and trending upward, supports this bullish scenario.

H1 chart analysis: on the H1 chart, XAU/USD has experienced a growth wave, reaching 2266.80 USD, with the market updating this peak today. A consolidation phase around this level is expected, with a breakout potentially leading to a further rise to 2310.73 USD and possibly extending towards 2379.80 USD. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80 and poised to drop to 50 before rising again, aligns with this forecast.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
29 Mar

Gold’s Price Reaches New Heights Amid Global Market Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Friday, the price of gold reached an unprecedented peak, soaring above 2,230 USD. The global capital market experienced low activity due to the observance of Good Friday in many Catholic countries, leading to abrupt movements by investors.

The surge in gold prices is primarily attributed to anticipations that global financial regulators will lower lending costs within the year. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions have bolstered gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

March saw gold’s price increase by over 9%, marking a significant uptick for what is typically considered a conservative investment. Several key developments support this rally:

  • US Federal Reserve’s rate cut intentions: in its March meeting, the Fed outlined plans to reduce interest rates three times over the year.
  • Bank of Japan’s policy shift: this month, the Bank of Japan abandoned its negative interest rate policy.
  • Swiss National Bank’s rate adjustment: in an unexpected move, the Swiss National Bank lowered its interest rate, sparking speculation that other financial authorities might take similar actions.

Gold’s status as a safe asset has been reinforced amidst a market climate favouring risk aversion, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability, especially in the Middle East.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart analysis: The H4 chart reveals that XAU/USD prices have broken out of their consolidation range, embarking on the fifth wave of growth. An upward movement towards 2,250 USD is currently forming. Following this, a corrective movement to 2,211.11 USD may occur, potentially leading to a new growth phase targeting 2,262.38 USD. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with the signal line positioned above zero and trending upwards.

H1 chart analysis: On the H1 chart, XAU/USD established a consolidation range of around 2,211.11 USD. An upward breakout from this range could set the stage for a rise towards 2,250 USD. After achieving this level, a correction towards 2,222.50 USD may unfold before considering a further ascent to 2,262.38 USD and a pullback to 2,180.60 USD. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates a forthcoming decline to 20, aligning with this analysis.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
25 Mar

Gold’s Prospects Look Promising

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have stabilized around $2170.00 per troy ounce after two days of decline. Investors are taking a pause ahead of an important US inflation indicator report due this week, which could provide insights into the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The Core PCE index data, an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will be released this Friday. This week, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, will speak at various events, potentially influencing market reactions. Additionally, most markets in Catholic countries will be closed on Good Friday at the week’s end, possibly delaying market reactions.

Strategically, gold has gained solid support after the Federal Reserve’s March meeting outlined three interest rate cuts for the current year. Support also came from the Swiss National Bank, which unexpectedly reduced its lending rate, sparking discussions that other major central banks might ease monetary policy sooner than expected – even before the Fed. For gold, this is a positive signal: lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

The probability of the Fed starting to cut rates in June is estimated at 74%.

COMEX data shows that net long positions in gold have decreased by 2,093 contracts to 157,467 contracts, which is not critical for the precious metal’s trend.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD reached a local target of 2222.77. A correction to the level of 2157.05 has been executed today. Currently, the market is forming a consolidation range around 2168.40. A downward breakout is expected, followed by a continuation of the correction to 2114.60. After completing this correction, a growth wave to 2251.33 is anticipated. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and sharply directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around 2168.40. An upward exit from this range could lead to a correction towards 2188.77. After reaching this level, a decline to 2146.66 will be considered, followed by the possibility of rising back to 2168.40 (testing from below) and then a decline to 2114.60. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and heading straight down to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
22 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while two markets had lower speculator contracts and one market had no change in weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (26,498 contracts) with Silver (11,457 contracts) and Palladium (562 contracts) also experiencing positive contract weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets was Platinum (-1,139 contracts) with Steel (-289 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Gold (0 contracts) saw a very rare unchanged position for the week, according to the CFTC data.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (99 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (21 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.3 percent)
Silver (99.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (81.9 percent)
Copper (75.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (46.0 percent)
Platinum (33.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.9 percent)
Palladium (21.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.7 percent)
Steel (86.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (87.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (54 percent) and Copper (51 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (17.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (24.2 percent)
Silver (54.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (29.8 percent)
Copper (51.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.7 percent)
Platinum (-8.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.5 percent)
Palladium (5.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.125.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.466.56.2
– Net Position:201,602-217,53015,928
– Gross Longs:278,732138,10249,131
– Gross Shorts:77,130355,63233,203
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.336.525.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-15.2-8.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.726.017.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.567.810.0
– Net Position:52,435-64,01711,582
– Gross Longs:77,63239,87626,859
– Gross Shorts:25,197103,89315,277
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.413.030.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:54.2-38.4-28.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 26,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.126.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.341.35.3
– Net Position:31,925-39,5027,577
– Gross Longs:124,31671,93421,878
– Gross Shorts:92,391111,43614,301
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.624.766.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.0-51.430.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.423.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.138.94.8
– Net Position:6,280-13,0786,798
– Gross Longs:42,54020,41310,934
– Gross Shorts:36,26033,4914,136
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.063.259.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.26.08.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,019 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.963.57.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.610.69.0
– Net Position:-10,01910,234-215
– Gross Longs:4,42712,2921,528
– Gross Shorts:14,4462,0581,743
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.083.428.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-3.8-20.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.183.71.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.274.10.9
– Net Position:-2,5262,417109
– Gross Longs:2,29321,012323
– Gross Shorts:4,81918,595214
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.713.844.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.53.8-6.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
16 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.6 percent)
Silver (81.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.6 percent)
Copper (46.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.9 percent)
Platinum (35.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.0 percent)
Palladium (17.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (87.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.9 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (30 percent), Gold (24 percent) and Copper (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-0.2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (24.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.8 percent)
Silver (29.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.1 percent)
Copper (15.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.5 percent)
Platinum (-10.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.2 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.9 percent)
Steel (-0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.925.19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.867.46.1
– Net Position:201,602-218,27316,671
– Gross Longs:283,062129,43247,992
– Gross Shorts:81,460347,70531,321
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.336.227.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.2-19.5-19.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.428.419.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.166.59.5
– Net Position:40,978-55,13014,152
– Gross Longs:67,09440,99727,826
– Gross Shorts:26,11696,12713,674
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.924.245.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.8-21.8-12.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.831.67.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.435.06.8
– Net Position:5,427-7,4452,018
– Gross Longs:87,43969,37817,050
– Gross Shorts:82,01276,82315,032
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.057.431.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-15.04.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.923.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.338.74.2
– Net Position:7,419-13,0415,622
– Gross Longs:44,71620,2869,273
– Gross Shorts:37,29733,3273,651
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.963.343.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.59.11.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.362.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.28.98.0
– Net Position:-10,58110,743-162
– Gross Longs:4,64512,5171,427
– Gross Shorts:15,2261,7741,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.786.432.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.72.6-33.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.284.71.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.875.40.9
– Net Position:-2,2372,16572
– Gross Longs:2,15319,748290
– Gross Shorts:4,39017,583218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.812.940.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.20.7-14.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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