Archive for Metals

17 Jun

Gold Surges 2% Since Week Opening Amid Geopolitical Shifts and Fed Expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Wednesday, spot gold (XAUUSD) hovered near 4,342 USD per troy ounce, logging a solid gain of over 2% since the beginning of the trading week. The precious metal continues to find strong fundamental support as global market participants increasingly price in a potential landmark peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The geopolitical breakthrough is expected to lead to the full restoration of oil shipments via the strategic Strait of Hormuz, substantially lowering broader market anxieties regarding a renewed global inflationary spiral. Analysts anticipate that both nations will sign an interim accord in Switzerland as early as Friday. Preliminary details suggest the document encompasses major economic concessions for Iran, most notably the lifting of restrictions on crude oil exports.

In parallel to geopolitical developments, global investors remain intensely focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy conclusion. While the market is almost fully pricing in unchanged interest rates, significant attention will be dedicated to the forward guidance and press conference delivered by the newly appointed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. His perspective on the future trajectory of monetary policy will be vital in setting expectations for the remainder of the year.

It is worth noting that other major central banks have already delivered their decisions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain its benchmark cash rate at 4.35%. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered a historic 25-basis-point hike, pushing its key policy rate to 1.0%—the highest level recorded since 1995.

For the gold market, the primary macroeconomic drivers continue to revolve around global central bank rate expectations, the performance of the US Dollar, and the fluid situation surrounding the US-Iran accord. Should geopolitical tensions continue to dissipate, investor focus is highly likely to pivot entirely back to the Federal Reserve’s policy roadmap and long-term global inflation projections.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis


On the 4-hour chart, the XAUUSD pair has developed a distinct consolidation range centered around the 4,343 baseline level. The immediate tactical outlook projects a downside breakout from this range, targeting an initial drop toward 4,188.

Following the completion of this wave, the market may see a corrective recovery wave pointing to 4,277, before resuming its primary downtrend toward 4,088. The overarching trend continuation target sits at the psychological level of 4,000.

Technical Confirmation: The MACD indicator heavily supports this downward momentum. Its signal line is currently positioned at local highs well above the zero baseline and is pointing firmly downward, confirming a dominant bearish momentum.

On the 1-hour chart, the market has successfully breached the support baseline at 4,348 downward, completing an initial wave of decline toward the 4,308 mark. Looking forward, the intraday bias favors a brief corrective bounce toward 4,354 to test the broken level from below.

Following this potential retest, a continuation of the bearish structure is expected to target 4,188, with a subsequent corrective growth expected back to 4,270.

Technical Confirmation: This intraday scenario is further validated by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line remains suppressed below the 50 median mark and continues to face selling pressure, pointing down toward the 20 oversold threshold.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
14 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a modest rise by 1,107 weekly contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-4,383 contracts), Platinum (-2,200 contracts), Gold (-2,183 contracts), Silver (-1,712 contracts) and with Palladium (-958 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium and Copper lead Metals markets price changes

Leading the Metals markets this week in price performance was Palladium, which saw a rise by 4.57%. Copper came in next with a 3.18% gain. Steel rose by 0.64%, and Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.37% rise.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.39%, and Platinum showed the biggest decline on the week with a -2.77% drop.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (96 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.9 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (96.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (48.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.1 percent)
Palladium (72.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.7 percent)
Steel (87.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (81.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.9 percent)
Silver (-3.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.3 percent)
Copper (10.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,020 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.517.712.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.378.24.7
– Net Position:173,837-201,03627,199
– Gross Longs:207,98458,98642,891
– Gross Shorts:34,147260,02215,692
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.2 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.055.645.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-2.5-23.5

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,926 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.425.826.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.964.89.2
– Net Position:22,214-40,36818,154
– Gross Longs:32,48726,66027,673
– Gross Shorts:10,27367,0289,519
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.272.752.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.30.110.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,833 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.431.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.262.03.9
– Net Position:74,450-83,9359,485
– Gross Longs:108,03586,21120,089
– Gross Shorts:33,585170,14610,604
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.14.063.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-10.03.8

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -2,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,212 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.732.714.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.765.75.7
– Net Position:15,012-20,5525,540
– Gross Longs:24,82620,4529,080
– Gross Shorts:9,81441,0043,540
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.653.562.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.96.810.2

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,006 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.139.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.026.89.9
– Net Position:-2,9642,236728
– Gross Longs:7,5166,9092,449
– Gross Shorts:10,4804,6731,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.331.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.910.5-7.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,600 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.662.91.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.592.10.2
– Net Position:11,707-12,126419
– Gross Longs:13,55726,118511
– Gross Shorts:1,85038,24492
– Long to Short Ratio:7.3 to 10.7 to 15.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.112.973.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.71.29.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 Jun

Gold (XAU/USD) Faces Persistent Selling Pressure

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold (XAU/USD) fell to 4,174 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level since late March.

Pressure on the precious metal intensified following a new escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US launched strikes against Iranian targets after reports that an American helicopter had been shot down. This latest development has once again raised doubts about the durability of the current truce and the prospects for a broader peace agreement.

Another key factor remains the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing disruptions to shipping through the region continue to constrain energy supplies and support elevated oil prices. These disruptions, in turn, are fuelling concerns that inflationary pressures across the global economy may persist for longer than expected.

Higher energy costs are prompting investors to reassess the monetary policy outlook for major central banks. Markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged period of elevated interest rates and are no longer ruling out additional policy tightening if inflation remains stubbornly high.

Investor focus is now on upcoming US inflation data, which could provide important clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The US dollar is also receiving support from strong labour market figures, which have reinforced expectations that the Fed could consider another interest rate increase before the end of the year.

As a result, the outlook for Gold (XAU/USD) remains broadly bearish.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,393 USD level before breaking lower and extending its decline to 4,175 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,390 USD is possible in the near term, after which the market may resume its decline towards 4,238 USD, with scope for a further move to 4,088 USD.

The MACD indicator confirms the prevailing bearish momentum. Its signal line remains below the centre line and continues to point firmly downwards, although early signs of a potential reversal are emerging.

On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,270 USD level and moved lower towards 4,175 USD. A corrective recovery towards 4,329 USD, as a retest from below, is possible before another decline towards 4,088 USD. After that, a broader rebound towards 4,390 USD may develop.

The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario. Its signal line remains below the 20 level but is beginning to turn upwards towards 80, indicating that a short-term corrective recovery may be gathering momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains under significant pressure as geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices, and expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy continue to support the US dollar. While technical indicators suggest a short-term corrective rebound, the broader outlook remains bearish unless market sentiment or inflation expectations change materially.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
31 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel which showed a small gain by 245 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,573 contracts), Copper (-2,846 contracts), Silver (-2,448 contracts), Platinum (-250 contracts) and with Palladium (-393 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads Metals markets price performances on the week

This week’s major Metals market price performances were led by Palladium, which rose by 1.10%. Gold was up marginally higher by 0.45%, while Steel rounded out the gainers with a 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Platinum dipped by -0.25% and Copper was lower by -0.50%. Silver was the biggest decliner on the week with a -2.69% decrease.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (97 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) and Gold (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.2 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (97.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (99.6 percent)
Platinum (55.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.8 percent)
Palladium (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.4 percent)
Steel (85.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (84.2 percent)

 

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover this week.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.4 percent)
Silver (-2.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.1 percent)
Copper (16.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.7 percent)
Platinum (-7.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.3 percent)
Palladium (-12.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.3 percent)
Steel (-0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 154,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,833 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.821.113.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.173.74.4
– Net Position:154,260-185,76631,506
– Gross Longs:200,70474,64147,149
– Gross Shorts:46,444260,40715,643
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.3 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.061.858.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.46.1-20.6

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,671 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.227.126.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.467.38.5
– Net Position:22,223-40,89318,670
– Gross Longs:32,75827,60527,301
– Gross Shorts:10,53568,4988,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.271.955.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-1.211.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,886 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.733.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.364.53.7
– Net Position:73,040-83,71210,672
– Gross Longs:105,67388,08320,574
– Gross Shorts:32,633171,7959,902
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.02.969.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.4-16.68.4

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,908 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.529.113.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.366.34.5
– Net Position:17,658-23,3075,649
– Gross Longs:25,99818,2678,463
– Gross Shorts:8,34041,5742,814
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.246.463.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.45.011.4

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,497 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.540.414.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.828.09.9
– Net Position:-2,8902,059831
– Gross Longs:6,4326,7392,478
– Gross Shorts:9,3224,6801,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.830.348.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.111.6-1.8

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,106 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.165.81.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.493.40.1
– Net Position:11,351-11,781430
– Gross Longs:13,23428,015477
– Gross Shorts:1,88339,79647
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.7 to 110.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.414.591.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.90.81.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
28 May

Gold Under Pressure: Third Consecutive Session of Declines

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell to 4,387 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of losses. The market remains cautious amid persistent uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continue to fuel concerns over inflation and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates.

Key disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved. Tehran continues to insist on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving its nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump previously stated that Washington would not accept a “bad deal” and was unwilling to ease sanctions on Iran, despite Tehran’s demands for financial concessions and an end to attacks.

Even if progress towards an agreement is achieved, markets still expect elevated energy prices to persist. This is likely to maintain inflationary pressure and force major central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, rather than moving towards rate cuts.

Since the beginning of the conflict, gold has already lost more than 15% of its value amid a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of higher interest rates across the global economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around 4,470 USD. A move lower towards 4,359 USD is likely. A corrective rebound to 4,470 USD (a retest from below) may follow, before a further decline towards 4,238 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,170 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,470 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,390 USD. A corrective rebound to retest 4,470 USD from below remains possible, followed by another decline towards 4,250 USD. A subsequent rebound towards 4,390 USD may follow. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

Gold remains under significant pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation expectations, and restrictive monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains dominant, although short-term corrective rebounds are possible.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
24 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-11,789 contracts) with Platinum (-2,804 contracts) and Silver (-1,440 contracts), Palladium (-582 contracts), Copper (-423 contracts) and Steel (-350 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The metals markets speculator positions continue to cool off after a roaring start to the year that had seen record high price levels almost across the board for the metals. Copper and Steel continue to have strong speculative positions as well as strong price trends. These two markets remain in extreme bullish strength levels (above 80%) currently (which shows their current levels across a range of the past three years) while the other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) have seen their speculator bets come down as well as their price levels have come back down to earth in the second quarter.

Copper leads the Metals Market price performance.

Copper was the leading gainer for the Precious Metals price performance this week with a 2.38% gain. Steel came in next with a 0.65% uptick while Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.62% rise.

On the downside, Gold was lower by less than a percent with a -0.80% decrease and was followed by Platinum which fell by -1.88%. Palladium was the biggest decliner over the past five days with a -3.34% drop.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent) and Steel (84 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) and Gold (36 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.1 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (30.8 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (55.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.8 percent)
Palladium (75.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.3 percent)
Steel (84.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (85.9 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (32 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (1.4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (2.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.7 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (-7.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.7 percent)
Steel (-1.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 159,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -11,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,622 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.618.312.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.568.84.0
– Net Position:159,833-191,62931,796
– Gross Longs:211,01869,52047,082
– Gross Shorts:51,185261,14915,286
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.3 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.259.458.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.40.9-16.5

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,111 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.326.926.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.869.38.4
– Net Position:24,671-42,66817,997
– Gross Longs:34,59127,10826,423
– Gross Shorts:9,92069,7768,426
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.369.051.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-6.013.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,309 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.732.47.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.265.53.4
– Net Position:75,886-85,4999,613
– Gross Longs:107,48383,51118,455
– Gross Shorts:31,597169,0108,842
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.61.464.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.8-27.9-9.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,712 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.629.313.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.166.25.3
– Net Position:17,908-23,1125,204
– Gross Longs:26,14818,4268,545
– Gross Shorts:8,24041,5383,341
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.846.958.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-0.22.4

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,915 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.240.614.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.731.59.5
– Net Position:-2,4971,563934
– Gross Longs:6,2527,0072,578
– Gross Shorts:8,7495,4441,644
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.427.252.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.37.3-2.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,456 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.664.61.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.193.20.2
– Net Position:11,106-11,521415
– Gross Longs:12,74626,059498
– Gross Shorts:1,64037,58083
– Long to Short Ratio:7.8 to 10.7 to 16.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.215.690.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.10.93.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
19 May

Gold Recovers Some Losses: What’s Driving the Market?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold rose to 4,600 USD per ounce on Tuesday, continuing its recovery from the previous session, and is now trading around 4,548 USD. Market sentiment was supported by hopes of a possible resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran, which has somewhat eased concerns over inflation and the energy crisis.

US President Donald Trump announced that he had postponed a planned strike on Iran following appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. According to him, the Gulf states believe an agreement with Tehran is still possible.

Earlier, gold had been under pressure due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rising oil prices increased inflationary risks and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes by central banks globally.

Additionally, accelerating US inflation continues to weigh on the market. Investors are revising their expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the likelihood of a rate cut this year declining significantly. Discussions are increasingly focusing on the potential for another rate increase before year-end.

Market attention now turns to the upcoming release of FOMC minutes and preliminary US PMI data. These reports could provide fresh signals regarding the state of the economy and the Fed’s next steps.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold has rebounded towards 4,590 USD and is now moving lower towards 4,400 USD. A corrective bounce to 4,550 USD is possible, followed by a further decline towards 4,250 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below 4,555 USD and continues to move lower towards 4,400 USD. A corrective rebound to 4,550 USD (testing from below) may follow, before a further decline towards 4,250 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold is recovering from recent losses, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and hopes for renewed US–Iran talks. However, strong US inflation and expectations of further Fed rate hikes continue to exert downward pressure. Technical indicators suggest a mixed short-term outlook, with potential corrective rebounds followed by further declines.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
15 May

Gold Falls on US Inflation Concerns as Week Ends in Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold continued its decline on Friday, falling to 4,619 USD per ounce. The week is set to close with losses of around 1%, as mounting US inflation puts pressure on the market. Rising prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated rates for longer or even resume rate hikes.

Data released this week showed that US manufacturing inflation rose at its fastest pace since 2022 in April, while consumer prices recorded the most significant increase since 2023.

The primary driver of inflationary pressure remains the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to influence global energy markets.

In this context, the market has largely ruled out a Fed rate cut for 2026. Some investors are even pricing in the possibility of a further rate hike by December.

Investor attention was also drawn to the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which ensuring open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to support global energy trade was a key topic.

Separately, the market is keeping an eye on India, where authorities have further tightened regulations on gold imports as part of measures to support the rupee.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold has broken below 4,639 USD and is moving lower towards 4,550 USD. A corrective rebound to 4,630 USD (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline towards 4,500 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,639 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,555 USD. A rebound towards 4,639 USD may follow before a further decline towards 4,550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure as US inflation data strengthens the case for sustained or higher interest rates. Short-term technical indicators suggest further downside potential, although temporary corrections may occur. Geopolitical developments and policy decisions in major economies will continue to dictate market sentiment.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

 

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.615.813.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.269.93.7
– Net Position:163,303-198,93535,632
– Gross Longs:211,81458,23049,252
– Gross Shorts:48,511257,16513,620
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.756.570.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.00.4

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.026.926.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.468.79.5
– Net Position:23,892-40,53516,643
– Gross Longs:32,96526,09425,811
– Gross Shorts:9,07366,6299,168
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.072.444.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3-0.45.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.435.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.466.63.7
– Net Position:62,849-72,0179,168
– Gross Longs:96,26182,82917,854
– Gross Shorts:33,412154,8468,686
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.88.461.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-22.22.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.666.55.4
– Net Position:17,785-22,6514,866
– Gross Longs:26,66817,6598,130
– Gross Shorts:8,88340,3103,264
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.548.154.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-2.3-7.9

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.039.314.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.334.510.0
– Net Position:-1,476775701
– Gross Longs:6,4026,2892,307
– Gross Shorts:7,8785,5141,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.222.444.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.54.8-19.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.564.31.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.494.60.2
– Net Position:11,217-11,631414
– Gross Longs:12,51624,734483
– Gross Shorts:1,29936,36569
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.7 to 17.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.815.189.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.215.1-8.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
04 May

Gold Supported by Cautious Optimism

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold is holding at around 4,611 USD per ounce on Monday as markets assess Donald Trump’s proposal to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tentative signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations.

The plan involves assisting civilian ships from neutral countries in safely leaving the conflict zone and restoring access to the shipping route. At the same time, Iran has stated that it is reviewing the US response to its latest proposal, which has helped support hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

However, the conflict, now entering its tenth week, continues to drive energy prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures. This has reinforced expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further if inflation risks persist.

Since the beginning of the confrontation, gold has remained under pressure and has lost around 12% of its value. At the same time, data from the World Gold Council show that central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing underlying support for long-term demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating above the 4,600 USD  evel. A move higher could open the way for a corrective rebound towards 4,704 USD. On the downside, a fresh decline towards 4,430 USD cannot be ruled out. The MACD indicator supports the current recovery bias: the signal line remains below the zero mark but continues to point firmly upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,620 USD level and is extending its move towards 4,580. In the near term, a rebound towards 4,690 USD remains possible as a retest from below, followed by a potential pullback to 4,625 USD. After that, a further move higher towards 4,741 USD may develop. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line remaining below 50 and pointing lower towards 20, signalling short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between cautious optimism over diplomacy and persistent inflation risks driven by the Middle East conflict. While short-term price action remains fragile, continued central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to provide underlying support for gold in the medium to longer term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
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