Archive for Metals

10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

 

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.615.813.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.269.93.7
– Net Position:163,303-198,93535,632
– Gross Longs:211,81458,23049,252
– Gross Shorts:48,511257,16513,620
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.756.570.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.00.4

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.026.926.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.468.79.5
– Net Position:23,892-40,53516,643
– Gross Longs:32,96526,09425,811
– Gross Shorts:9,07366,6299,168
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.072.444.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3-0.45.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.435.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.466.63.7
– Net Position:62,849-72,0179,168
– Gross Longs:96,26182,82917,854
– Gross Shorts:33,412154,8468,686
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.88.461.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-22.22.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.666.55.4
– Net Position:17,785-22,6514,866
– Gross Longs:26,66817,6598,130
– Gross Shorts:8,88340,3103,264
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.548.154.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-2.3-7.9

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.039.314.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.334.510.0
– Net Position:-1,476775701
– Gross Longs:6,4026,2892,307
– Gross Shorts:7,8785,5141,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.222.444.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.54.8-19.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.564.31.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.494.60.2
– Net Position:11,217-11,631414
– Gross Longs:12,51624,734483
– Gross Shorts:1,29936,36569
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.7 to 17.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.815.189.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.215.1-8.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
04 May

Gold Supported by Cautious Optimism

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold is holding at around 4,611 USD per ounce on Monday as markets assess Donald Trump’s proposal to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tentative signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations.

The plan involves assisting civilian ships from neutral countries in safely leaving the conflict zone and restoring access to the shipping route. At the same time, Iran has stated that it is reviewing the US response to its latest proposal, which has helped support hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

However, the conflict, now entering its tenth week, continues to drive energy prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures. This has reinforced expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further if inflation risks persist.

Since the beginning of the confrontation, gold has remained under pressure and has lost around 12% of its value. At the same time, data from the World Gold Council show that central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing underlying support for long-term demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating above the 4,600 USD  evel. A move higher could open the way for a corrective rebound towards 4,704 USD. On the downside, a fresh decline towards 4,430 USD cannot be ruled out. The MACD indicator supports the current recovery bias: the signal line remains below the zero mark but continues to point firmly upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,620 USD level and is extending its move towards 4,580. In the near term, a rebound towards 4,690 USD remains possible as a retest from below, followed by a potential pullback to 4,625 USD. After that, a further move higher towards 4,741 USD may develop. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line remaining below 50 and pointing lower towards 20, signalling short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between cautious optimism over diplomacy and persistent inflation risks driven by the Middle East conflict. While short-term price action remains fragile, continued central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to provide underlying support for gold in the medium to longer term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
01 May

Why the CRB Index May Be Signaling the Next Commodity Move

Source: John Newell (4/30/26) 

John Newell of John Newell & Associates takes a look at the CRB Index and reviews companies on the index he believes might be positioned for the next upleg.

The Thomson Reuters/ Core Commodity CRB Index is one of those indicators that does not always get the attention it deserves, but it should. It quietly reflects what is happening across the entire commodity complex, not just gold, silver, or copper in isolation, but the full spectrum of raw materials that drive the global economy.

At its core, the CRB Index is a basket of commodities that includes energy, metals, and agricultural products. Because energy carries a heavy weighting, shifts in oil can influence the index, but the broader message comes from how all these components move together. When the CRB trends higher, it typically reflects strengthening demand, tightening supply, or rising inflation pressures. When it trends lower, it often signals the opposite.

For years, the CRB has been stuck in a wide, grinding range. Rallies would start, build some momentum, and then fade. That kind of price action usually tells you the sector is under-owned and lacking a strong macro tailwind.

That may now be changing.

The decline into the 2020–2021 lows marked a classic capitulation phase. The selling was sharp and emotional, the kind of move that tends to mark the end of a cycle rather than the middle of one. What followed has been a steady recovery, but more importantly, a shift in structure. The CRB has begun to build higher lows, and that is often the first sign that a market is transitioning from distribution into accumulation.

I often refer to the idea of “same way down, same way up,” and the CRB is starting to show that kind of symmetry. The area around 270 marked what I call the Point of Recognition, where the market proved the downtrend had lost control. Since then, the consolidation has been constructive, not weak.

From here, the roadmap becomes clearer. Levels around 440 and 530 represent logical steps along the way, while a move toward 700 would suggest something much larger, potentially the early stages of a new commodity cycle.

Now, none of this happens in a straight line. Corrections are part of the process, and in many ways, they are where the best information shows up.

Because what holds up best during a correction often leads the next move higher.

What Goes Down the Least…

One of the simplest observations in market behavior is that relative strength matters. Stocks that refuse to break down when their sector is under pressure tend to outperform when sentiment turns.

In the recent pullback across precious metals and energy, a few names have stood out. They have not collapsed. They have held structure, built higher lows, and in some cases continued advancing.

Those are the ones I pay attention to.

Honey Badger Silver Inc.

Honey Badger Silver Inc. (TUF:TSXV; HBEIF:OTCQB) is a story that has quietly evolved from a collection of exploration assets into something more substantial.

The company’s strategy has been straightforward but effective. Rather than chasing high-risk exploration alone, management has focused on acquiring silver ounces in the ground at low cost, often in past-producing districts with infrastructure already in place. That approach has allowed the company to build scale without excessive dilution.

The turning point came with the acquisition of the Prairie Creek Project in the Northwest Territories. This is not just another exploration play. It is a high-grade, fully permitted silver-zinc-lead project with existing underground development and a defined resource base. Historically, Prairie Creek hosts roughly 240 million ounces of silver equivalent in measured and indicated categories, with an additional 167 million ounces inferred.

That scale matters, especially in a market where new discoveries are harder to come by and permitting timelines continue to stretch.

What stands out is the valuation gap. While many peers trade at significantly higher values per ounce in the ground, Honey Badger remains priced at a fraction of that level. That disconnect creates the potential for a re-rating as the market begins to recognize the underlying asset base.

From a market standpoint, the stock has already shown strength. It has achieved earlier upside targets and, despite a pullback in silver, has held its structure and built a new base. That type of behavior is not typical in this space, and it often points to accumulation rather than distribution.

Management is another piece of the puzzle. With a capital markets background and experience building and financing companies, the team has shown discipline in how it has grown the asset base.

This is no longer just an exploration story. It is becoming a development story, and that shift can be meaningful if the broader commodity cycle continues to improve.

Lux Metals Corp. 

Lux Metals Corp (LXM:TSXV; BBBMF:OTCMKTS) is still early in its story, but that is part of what makes it interesting.

The company is focused on advancing its copper and gold assets, positioning itself within a sector that continues to benefit from long-term demand tied to electrification and infrastructure. While the broader market has been volatile, Lux has been quietly building a more constructive structure.

What stands out here is the transition from a prolonged downtrend into a basing phase, followed by the early signs of higher lows. That shift may seem subtle, but it is often where the biggest opportunities begin.

On the fundamental side, the company is still in the exploration and development stage, which means the value is tied to what it can prove in the ground. In a stronger commodity environment, that optionality becomes more valuable, particularly for companies with clean structures and room to grow.

What I am watching is how the stock behaves around key levels. Holding support and continuing to build higher lows during a broader correction suggests that sellers are losing control. If that continues, the next phase tends to come quickly.

Lux fits the profile of a company that could benefit from renewed interest in base metals, particularly if the CRB continues to strengthen.

ATHA Energy Corp.

ATHA Energy Corp. (SASK:TSX.V; SASKF:OTCMKTS; X5U:FRA) sits in a different part of the commodity spectrum, but the setup is similar.

The company is focused on uranium, a sector that has quietly been building momentum as the world rethinks energy security and the role of nuclear power. With a large land position and exposure to high-quality uranium districts, ATHA has positioned itself within a theme that is gaining traction.

What stands out technically is that the stock has already moved through earlier upside targets and continues to build higher lows. Even during recent volatility, the structure has held.

That is not something you see in weaker names.

From a fundamental perspective, uranium remains one of the more compelling long-term stories in the resource space. Supply constraints, increasing demand for clean energy, and geopolitical considerations all support the case for higher prices over time.

ATHA provides leverage to that theme, and the market appears to be recognizing it.

The combination of improving fundamentals and a chart that continues to act well places it firmly in the category of relative strength.

The Bigger Picture

What ties all of this together is the backdrop.

The CRB Index appears to be transitioning out of a multi-year base. That does not guarantee a straight move higher, but it does suggest the environment is improving.

At the same time, we are seeing select companies that are not breaking down during corrections. They are holding structure, building higher lows, and quietly positioning themselves for the next move.

That combination matters.

Because when the commodity cycle turns, capital does not flow evenly. It flows first into the names that are already acting right.

The CRB gives us the signal.

These companies are giving us the early confirmation.

And if this is the beginning of a broader move in commodities, then the real opportunity will not come from the index itself. It will come from the companies that have already shown they can hold their ground when the market tests them.

That is where I would be focusing my attention right now.

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Lux Metals Corp.
  2. John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of:  Lux Metals Corp. and Honey Badger Silver Inc. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions
27 Apr

Gold Declines Amid Geopolitics, with Optimism Limited

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell below 4,700 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending last week’s losses. Pressure on the precious metal has intensified following the breakdown of attempts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting inflationary risks.

Donald Trump cancelled the US delegation’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations, while Tehran stated that it would not participate in dialogue under pressure or while under blockade.

Meanwhile, oil prices are rising. The Middle East conflict has now entered its ninth week. According to the IEA, it has triggered the largest supply shock in the energy market in recent history.

High inflationary risks are increasing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further, putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, remains cautious. The market still anticipates a gradual rate cut, but not in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,690 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,751 USD, while a downside break could lead to a move lower towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,710 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,680 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,610 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflationary risks. With the conflict now in its ninth week and the IEA describing it as the largest supply shock in energy markets, central banks are expected to maintain or even tighten policy rates for longer. This environment remains unfavourable for non-yielding gold. The Fed’s cautious stance offers little immediate relief. Technical indicators point firmly lower, with further downside towards 4,616–4,610 USD likely in the near term.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculator Bets Higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold


The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (4,095 contracts) with Gold (1,480 contracts), Steel (430 contracts), Silver (158 contracts) and Palladium (68 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a decrease by -67 contracts.

Metals Markets were overall lower in price performance this week.

The Precious Metals market’s price performances were mostly lower across the board this week. Steel was the only gainer and saw just a small edge higher by 0.16%.

On the downside, Copper dipped by -0.78% and was followed by Gold which fell by -1.83%. Platinum was lower by -3.77% followed by Palladium, which dropped by -3.92% on the week.

Silver was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -5.39% decline.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (88 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (85 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.3 percent)
Silver (26.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (26.5 percent)
Copper (88.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (84.6 percent)
Platinum (62.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.6 percent)
Palladium (85.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (88.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (86.3 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (15 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.4 percent)
Copper (7.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.4 percent)
Platinum (14.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.0 percent)
Palladium (-5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.0 percent)
Steel (-4.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,526 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.215.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.470.93.6
– Net Position:164,006-202,94038,934
– Gross Longs:212,89356,26152,223
– Gross Shorts:48,887259,20113,289
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.954.979.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.40.0-2.7

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,562 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.828.022.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.263.57.8
– Net Position:23,720-40,98517,265
– Gross Longs:33,23332,35726,253
– Gross Shorts:9,51373,3428,988
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.771.747.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.40.91.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,109 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.035.18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.462.74.1
– Net Position:59,204-69,33510,131
– Gross Longs:90,14287,85520,417
– Gross Shorts:30,938157,19010,286
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.410.766.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-5.8-4.3

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,603 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.727.612.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.668.64.9
– Net Position:20,536-25,3874,851
– Gross Longs:28,94017,1337,859
– Gross Shorts:8,40442,5203,008
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.441.154.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.6-11.4-15.8

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.135.515.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.735.39.0
– Net Position:-98530955
– Gross Longs:6,8845,3002,297
– Gross Shorts:7,8695,2701,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.417.953.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.58.8-20.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.965.71.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:1.796.00.4
– Net Position:11,980-12,415435
– Gross Longs:12,66526,882590
– Gross Shorts:68539,297155
– Long to Short Ratio:18.5 to 10.7 to 13.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.311.692.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.98.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
24 Apr

Gold Falls Nearly 3.0% Over the Week Amid Geopolitical Pressure

By Analytical Department RoboForex

On Friday, the price of gold remained below 4,700 USD per ounce. For the week, the price is expected to decline by approximately 3.0%, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz support rising energy prices and heighten concerns about inflation.{}

Both sides are maintaining their blockades of this strategically vital waterway, with peace talks showing little progress.

US President Donald Trump said on social media on Thursday that he had ordered the US Navy to target and destroy any vessels laying mines in the strait. US troops also boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, the truce between the US and Iran has been extended indefinitely, as Washington awaits a new formal proposal from Tehran. The truce between Israel and Lebanon has also been prolonged for three weeks.

High energy prices are reinforcing inflation risks and strengthening expectations of potential interest rate hikes by central banks. Collectively, these factors are weighing on gold, reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,685 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,755 USD, while a downside break could lead to a decline towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,693 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,616 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,690 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is poised to close the week nearly 3.0% lower amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which continue to dominate market sentiment. Both sides maintain their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, while peace talks show little progress. President Trump’s stance, ordering the Navy to destroy mines and board an Iranian oil tanker, has kept energy prices elevated and inflation concerns firmly in focus. Although truces with Iran and Lebanon have been prolonged, the lack of meaningful progress towards a resolution continues to weigh on gold. With central banks potentially leaning towards rate hikes amid persistent inflation, the non-yielding metal faces a challenging environment. Technical indicators suggest further downside towards 4,616 USD in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
15 Apr

Gold in Positive Territory: External Backdrop Remains Supportive

By Analytical Department RoboForex

The price of gold rose to 4,800 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, with the local trend gaining strength. The precious metal is supported by expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran, which would reduce the risks of an energy-driven inflationary shock.

Press reports indicate that Washington and Tehran are working to organise a new round of negotiations following the breakdown in dialogue over the weekend. At the same time, the US is maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly considering temporarily suspending exports via this route to advance negotiations.

An additional supporting factor is the decline in oil prices below 90.00 USD per barrel and the weakening of the US dollar to six-week lows. Both developments traditionally boost demand for gold.

Markets are also revising their monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve is adopting a wait-and-see approach when assessing inflation risks, which is reducing pressure on precious metals.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 4,772 USD level. An upside breakout would open potential for a correction to 4,903 USD. A downside breakout could see the beginning of a downward wave to 4,460 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current upward momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken above the 4,775 USD level and completed a wave to 4,868 USD. A correction to the 4,775 USD level (testing from above) is likely, followed by a possible rise to 4,903 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line remaining below the 20 level and showing upward pressure towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold is trading in positive territory as hopes for a renewed US-Iran negotiation effort ease concerns over an energy-driven inflationary shock. The combination of falling oil prices (below 90.00 USD per barrel), a weaker dollar (at six-week lows), and the Fed’s patient stance on inflation risks has created a supportive environment for the precious metal. While the US maintains a naval blockade and Iran considers suspending exports to advance talks, the market is cautiously optimistic. Technical indicators suggest further upside potential towards 4,903 USD, although any setbacks in diplomatic efforts could quickly reverse the current momentum.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
12 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart 
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,701 contracts) with Steel (420 contracts) and Copper (123 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-6,897 contracts), Silver (-487 contracts) and with Palladium (-343 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

Highlighting the Metals market speculative positions this week was Platinum, which saw speculator bets rise higher for a second straight week as well as the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. Platinum bets have now risen to a net standing of over +18,000 contracts, and this week’s level marks the most bullish position of the past 13 weeks dating back to January 6th. The Platinum positioning has now been above +10,000 net contracts for 47 consecutive weeks, dating back to May 13th of 2025.

Gold positions fell this week for the second consecutive week and for the third time out of the last four weeks. Gold speculator positioning has cooled off significantly since January, when the net position was a total of 251,238 contracts on January 13th to this week’s standing of 156,305 contracts, a difference of -94,933 contracts being subtracted from the overall net bullish position. The Gold position has now had less than +200,000 contracts for 10 straight weeks, and this week marked the lowest level of bullish net contracts since February 2024.

The Metals Markets’ price performance was higher across the board.

In the metals markets, prices were higher across the board as a ceasefire in the Iran war seemed to give relief to the metals’ recent price slides. Silver was the biggest winner on the week with a 6.17% gain while Copper came in second with a 4.65% rise for the week. Platinum was a close third with a 4.24% gain. Gold was higher by 2.65%, followed by Steel, which got a boost of 2.34%, and then Palladium rounded out the gainers with a 2.12% increase for the week.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (85 percent) and Palladium (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (26 percent) and Gold (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.6 percent)
Silver (26.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.0 percent)
Copper (70.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.6 percent)
Platinum (56.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (85.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (83.4 percent)

 

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (12 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.3 percent)
Silver (2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-0.2 percent)
Copper (-17.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-17.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.0 percent)
Palladium (-13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.2 percent)
Steel (-2.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 156,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -6,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,202 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.916.313.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.870.93.3
– Net Position:156,305-193,75137,446
– Gross Longs:205,36857,72949,117
– Gross Shorts:49,063251,48011,671
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.2 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.858.675.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.8-12.2

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,904 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.524.521.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.258.38.2
– Net Position:23,417-38,91515,498
– Gross Longs:32,81028,21124,908
– Gross Shorts:9,39367,1269,410
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.275.038.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.03.5-18.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,104 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.337.49.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.460.44.1
– Net Position:40,227-51,61511,388
– Gross Longs:72,63784,01920,588
– Gross Shorts:32,410135,6349,200
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.726.073.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.017.9-13.0

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,337 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.529.012.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.467.54.6
– Net Position:18,038-23,0344,996
– Gross Longs:27,25917,3937,735
– Gross Shorts:9,22140,4272,739
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.147.156.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.0-8.8-15.8

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,050 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.837.214.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.034.88.0
– Net Position:-1,3933751,018
– Gross Longs:6,6555,6552,228
– Gross Shorts:8,0485,2801,210
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.720.055.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.613.0-2.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,918 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.361.71.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.294.90.2
– Net Position:11,338-11,727389
– Gross Longs:12,10321,746472
– Gross Shorts:76533,47383
– Long to Short Ratio:15.8 to 10.6 to 15.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.314.786.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.32.3-3.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 Apr

Lithium Developer Lands Spot in US-Japan Critical Minerals Partnership

Source: Streetwise Reports (4/8/26) 

Atlas Lithium Corp.’s (ATLX:NASDAQ) Neves Project in Brazil is being considered for financial backing by Japan and the U.S. governments.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) announced that its wholly-owned Neves Project in Brazil’s Lithium Valley has been highlighted in the Joint Fact Sheet for Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Project Cooperation, according to a release on April 2.

This document, unveiled on March 20, by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry in collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, marks the Neves Project as the sole Brazil-based lithium initiative recognized in this context. The full document can be accessed online.

The Fact Sheet indicates that the governments of Japan and the United States are contemplating financial backing for the development of the Neves Project. This announcement follows closely on the heels of the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Investment Ministerial, which took place on March 14 in Tokyo involving key U.S. departments and Japan’s METI. Additionally, it comes after a summit on March 19 between Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump. Both nations have committed to an action plan aimed at fortifying the secure and diversified supply chains of critical minerals, building on a prior agreement signed in Tokyo on October 28, 2025.

“The inclusion of the Neves Project in the Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Joint Fact Sheet, with both the U.S. and Japanese governments considering financial support for our project, is a powerful recognition of the strategic value of our assets and the progress that our team has achieved,” Atlas Lithium Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Marc Fogassa said. “Together with our strategic partner Mitsui & Co., we remain focused on bringing the Neves Project into production and supplying high-quality lithium concentrate to the global market. We are also proud of working with the local communities in bringing progress to an economically disadvantaged area of Brazil.”

The Joint Fact Sheet lists several projects that could enhance the critical minerals supply chain, including Atlas Lithium’s Neves Project. This inclusion is significant, especially considering Atlas Lithium’s strategic partnership with Mitsui & Co., Ltd., a major Japanese trading and investment entity. In March 2024, Mitsui invested US$30 million in Atlas Lithium shares and secured an offtake agreement to purchase lithium concentrate from the Neves Project, thereby linking the project directly to Japan’s industrial sectors.

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Atlas Lithium Corp.

Brazil
(last modified 02/27/26)
Friendly Policies 75.17%
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index 77.78%
Socioeconomic Agreements/Community Development Conditions, aka Safety 25%
Political Stability 15%

Data from the Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Co. Takes ‘Critical Step’ Toward Production

In December 2025, the company announced that it is nearing the end of its search for a project management and construction supervision service provider for Neves. Situated in Minas Gerais, the Neves Project stands as Atlas Lithium’s premier lithium development endeavor, bolstered by a Definitive Feasibility Study with world-class project economics.

Atlas Lithium is in the process of selecting a firm that will oversee the planning, coordination, monitoring, and control of all construction activities at the site. This firm will ensure that the project adheres to the predetermined schedule, budget, scope, quality, safety, and performance standards. The company said it undertook a thorough evaluation process, reviewing five potential firms based on their technical expertise, experience with Brazilian mining projects, and their proposed management systems.

Vice President of Engineering and Project Management Officer Eduardo Queiroz emphasized the importance of this partnership, stating, “securing a top-tier project management partner is a critical step in our disciplined approach to making Atlas Lithium a producer of lithium concentrate in short order.” He further noted, “With our processing plant already in Brazil and key permits in place, we are methodically advancing toward production while maintaining our focus on cost discipline and schedule optimization.”

The lithium processing plant mentioned by Queiroz has already arrived in Brazil and is is now ready for assembly. Following assembly, pre-operational testing is expected to commence. Atlas Lithium anticipates finalizing the contract with the chosen project management firm early in 2026.

Furthermore, Atlas Lithium has secured all necessary permits for the Neves Project, which include installation, mining concession, water use rights, and vegetation clearance authorizations. The project plans to implement 100% dry-stacking for waste management, thereby eliminating the need for a tailings dam, and aims to recirculate over 95% of its process water, highlighting its commitment to sustainable mining practices.

Analyst: Co. Well-Capitalized to Achieve Commercial Production

On March 17, 2026, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko F. Ihle, CFA, maintained a Buy rating on Atlas Lithium and increased his price target from US$12.00 to US$12.50. Ihle cited the ongoing reduction of risks at Neves and the company’s advantageous cost structure as primary factors for the adjustment.

Ihle described 2026 as a crucial year for Atlas Lithium, noting the company’s focus on initiating Phase 1 of production at Neves, which includes the construction of a 150,000 tonne-per-year modular Dense Media Separation (DMS) plant. He mentioned that the company is transitioning from procurement to actual plant assembly and is also working on expanding its permits following a technical report in August 2025.

The analyst pointed out that Atlas Lithium appears well-capitalized to achieve commercial production in the near future, with a significant cash reserve and a manageable debt level. He also emphasized the company’s appeal as a potential merger and acquisition target due to its low projected operating costs and strategic location in Brazil’s “Lithium Valley.”

Ihle’s revised price target of US$12.50 is based on an increased net asset value (NAV) multiple, reflecting the project’s de-risking and a comprehensive valuation model that includes comparisons and financial projections. He highlighted the company’s strategic partnerships and off-take agreements as indicators of ongoing industry interest.

Finally, Ihle noted potential risks, including fluctuations in commodity prices, technical challenges in resource definition, and construction costs, which could impact the project’s progress and financial outcomes.

The Catalyst: AI Pushing Demand Worldwide

The AI industry’s expansion is significantly driving up the demand for lithium, primarily due to the increased need for lithium-iron phosphate batteries in data centers, according to Ivan Castano writing for Open Markets on March 18

These batteries are essential for maintaining a stable energy supply, crucial for operations like training large language models which consume substantial amounts of power. Unlike the smaller lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, these larger units are integral to Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). These facilities are becoming more common across the U.S. and globally, storing energy from renewable sources or the grid and releasing it during peak demand or power outages, thus ensuring continuous power supply to data centers.

The systems are also beneficial for solar energy providers, allowing them to store excess energy produced during peak sunlight and sell it in the evening, thereby stabilizing their income despite the intermittent nature of solar power. This shift is causing the lithium demand for energy storage to outpace that of the EV market. According to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, last year saw a 51% increase in BESS demand compared to a 26% rise for EVs, although EVs still make up about 75% of the global battery demand.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

Retail: 47%
Insiders & Management: 26%
Institutional: 20%
Strategic Investors: 7%

 

*Share Structure as of 4/8/2026

 

The market dynamics are shifting from an oversupply and lower prices to a scenario of scarce supply and rising prices, lifting lithium out of a three-year price dip. Prices have soared 120% over the past six months, with significant fluctuations such as a 46% price spike in January due to low inventories before the Chinese New Year. Andy Leyland, founder of SC Insights, predicts a tightening market, stating, “The market is looking pretty strong,” and anticipates a 24% demand increase versus a 19% supply increase by 2026. This growing market tightness is mirrored in the futures market, where there is a noticeable shift towards using CME Group Lithium futures as a risk management strategy, reflecting the industry’s need to hedge against price volatility amid supply disruptions and the EV industry’s evolving purchasing strategies.

In 2025, the global lithium market was valued at approximately US$32.38 billion and is projected to expand to US$96.45 billion by 2033, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% from 2026 to 2033, Grand View Research reported.

This growth is largely driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which rely heavily on lithium-ion batteries. The automotive sector, in particular, is expected to see robust growth due to stringent government regulations aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, pushing automakers towards EV production.

Ownership and Share Structure1

As for ownership and share structure, management owns approximately 26% of Atlas Lithium common shares. Strategic partner Mitsui & Co. Ltd. has 7%. Numerous institutions hold 20%. Retail investors own the rest.

Atlas Lithium has 27.7 million shares outstanding. Its market cap is ~US$130 million. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–8.25 per share.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Atlas Lithium Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium Corp.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Financial News Metals
06 Apr

Gold – 12% Decline Since Middle East Conflict Began: This May Not Be the Limit

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold declined to 4,600 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending losses from the previous session. Pressure intensified after Donald Trump issued a new ultimatum to Iran, threatening strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Trump signalled his readiness to sharply increase pressure and set a new deadline, further heightening tensions in financial markets. Tehran has rejected the demands and continues to target energy facilities in the region.

Since the onset of the conflict, gold has lost approximately 12% of its value. Rising energy prices are amplifying inflation risks and reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates, which limit demand for the metal.

Moreover, gold is not fully fulfilling its traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Some investors are being forced to unwind positions to cover losses in other market segments, adding further downward pressure on prices.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around 4,599 USD. An upside breakout would open the way for a correction towards 4,854 USD, while a downside breakout could mark the beginning of a new downward wave towards 4,477 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line above the zero line and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken above 4,636 USD and is forming a wave towards 4,737 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,636 USD is likely, followed by a renewed advance towards 4,852 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s 12% decline since the start of the Middle East conflict highlights a market paradox: escalating geopolitical tensions have failed to support the traditional safe-haven asset. Instead, surging energy prices have intensified inflation concerns, pushing interest rate expectations higher and weighing on the non-yielding metal. Forced liquidation by investors covering losses elsewhere has added to the selling pressure. With Trump issuing a new ultimatum and Tehran rejecting the demands, the conflict shows no signs of easing. While technical indicators suggest scope for a short-term rebound, gold’s broader trajectory remains vulnerable, and further downside cannot be ruled out.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
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