Archive for Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-30,570 contracts) with Copper (-18,987 contracts), Platinum (-7,596 contracts), Silver (-4,455 contracts), Palladium (-2,509 contracts) and Steel (-587 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (38 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.3 percent)
Silver (38.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.2 percent)
Copper (2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (20.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.0 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.2 percent)

 

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals have negative 6-week trend scores currently.

Platinum (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-37 percent) and Gold (-34 percent) as the next market with the lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-20.7 percent)
Silver (-30.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.8 percent)
Copper (-37.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-18.7 percent)
Platinum (-65.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-33.9 percent)
Palladium (-32.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.3 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.6 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.726.010.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.562.45.3
– Net Position:131,168-152,98021,812
– Gross Longs:217,505109,52944,228
– Gross Shorts:86,337262,50922,416
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.662.944.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.433.7-19.3

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.231.221.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.150.69.8
– Net Position:12,425-29,68817,263
– Gross Longs:56,78547,55632,154
– Gross Shorts:44,36077,24414,891
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.456.362.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.726.3-4.0

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.339.06.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.027.25.8
– Net Position:-32,69730,4262,271
– Gross Longs:78,229100,41317,289
– Gross Shorts:110,92669,98715,018
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.796.832.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.234.8-4.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.125.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.034.54.4
– Net Position:1,938-8,2296,291
– Gross Longs:50,31823,84910,369
– Gross Shorts:48,38032,0784,078
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.875.752.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-65.052.633.0

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.552.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.06.06.6
– Net Position:-13,51113,042469
– Gross Longs:4,31714,7202,308
– Gross Shorts:17,8281,6781,839
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 18.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.069.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.328.333.9

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.981.21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.073.10.6
– Net Position:-2,1831,957226
– Gross Longs:3,11719,560379
– Gross Shorts:5,30017,603153
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.012.157.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.012.1-2.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Could Market Bubble Lead To a New Gold Bull Market?

Source: Streetwise Reports  (2/12/24)

Could another bubble burst like the “Dotcom Bubble,” which helped usher in a decade-long gold bull market with extraordinary gains, be on its way? Surprisingly, some analysts and experts say there are similarities between then and now.

Could another bubble burst like the “Dotcom Bubble,” which helped usher in a decade-long gold bull market with extraordinary gains, be on its way?

Hussman Investment Trust President John Hussman, who predicted the Dotcom Bubble break and the market downturn in 2008, is warning that another fallout is coming soon.

“We estimate that current market conditions now ‘cluster’ among the worst 0.1% instances in history — more similar to major market peaks and dissimilar to major market lows than 99.9% of all post-war periods,” Business Insider quoted Hussman as saying in a recent note.

Hussman said other such instances, including the Dotcom Bubble, are usually followed by an “abrupt” drop in the stock market.

For the savvy gold investor, that may be a big opportunity — like the big growth gold saw in the 2000s after the Dotcom Bubble burst.

“The Fed started to cut the federal funds rate in the response, gold started its impressive rally,” according to GoldPriceForecast.com. “Many people did not want to invest in the stock market anymore, and they switched into the housing market (developing another speculative mania) and into . . . the precious metals market. The low-interest rates, weak greenback, and unsound U.S. fiscal policy made gold shine.”

A team of J.P. Morgan analysts led by Khuram Chaudhry noted, “Rising concentration in the U.S. stock market has become an important risk that investors should be aware of in 2024.”

On his website, Addicted to Profits, David Skarica also saw similarities with earlier gold markets and predicted the metal will rise in value “sometime this year.”

Chaudhry and his team said there are differences between the Dotcom Bubble era and now, but the two are “more similar than one might initially expect.”

“When viewed in a historical context, parallels to the ‘Dotcom Bubble’ era are often dismissed due to the ‘irrational exuberance’ that characterized this period. In this note, we demonstrate that there are a plethora of similarities between these two periods,” said the note, reported on by MarketWatch.

And when it happens, investors should be ready, noted wealth advisor Ross Goldstein, who wrote that gold breaking records is a “rare and remarkable occurrence, given its historical long-term stability over thousands of years. The last time such groundbreaking price movements occurred was in the 1970s and the 2000s . . . The second gold bull market from 2000 to 2011 (after the Dotcom Bubble) exhibited almost an 8X rise.”

According to Katusa Research, heightened uncertainty and decreased appetite for risk could send investors to gold. Also, a hard landing for the economy would justify more Fed rate cuts, “fanning the flames for higher gold prices.”

“You need to be prepared,” the site said. “If a roaring bull market sends the gold price above (US)$2,200 for any period of time, look out.”

From Tulips to Blue Chips

According to Investopedia, an asset bubble happens “when the price of a financial asset or commodity rises to levels that are well above either historical norms, the asset’s intrinsic value, or both.”

Global analyst Adrian Day, writing for Streetwise Reports last month, said gold’s “time has come.”

Such bubbles are not new. One of the earliest recorded happened in Holland during the 1630s, when “Tulipmania” hit the country. Speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes.

“At the market’s peak, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person’s annual salary,” Investopedia said.

By the end of 1637, the tulip bubble burst when buyers could not pay the high prices, and the market fell apart.

There were other bubbles in the 1700s (over a company formed to trade with South American Spanish colonies) and the 1980s (fueled by “overly stimulative monetary policy).

The Dotcom Bubble

However, for increased scale and size, few matched the Dotcom Bubble.

“The increasing popularity of the Internet triggered a massive wave of speculation in ‘new economy’ businesses,” Investopedia said. “As a result, hundreds of dot-com companies achieved multi-billion dollar valuations as soon as they went public.”

The NASDAQ soared from about 750 in 1990 to a peak of more than 5,000 in March 2000. The index then crashed by 78% by October 2002, not reaching a new high until 2015.

Investors asked, “Do you have a ‘.com’ suffix in your name? If yes, we will invest in you,” according to GoldPriceForecast.com. “No matter that, you never made any money. You have to gain in value, anyway!”

Stock values grew, but capital dried up.

“In the years preceding the bubble, record-low interest rates, the adoption of the Internet, and interest in technology companies allowed capital to flow freely, especially to startup companies that had no track record of success,” Investopedia said. “Valuations rose, and money eventually dried up. This led companies, many of which didn’t even have a business plan or product, to collapse, causing the market to crash.”

The Golden Years

However, the bear markets that come after such falls “are exactly what precious metals investors are prepared for,” noted RME Gold.

“In a bear market, stockholders tend to sell off their stocks as values are declining, so they don’t lose more money,” the site said. “At this time, to balance their portfolios, they’ll turn to gold and silver as safe assets for protection. Historically, when the market goes down, the price of gold goes up. This ‘see-saw’ effect is evident in the surge in gold prices when the economy was deep in recession after the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008. Even in a bear market for stocks and indexes, gold and silver may experience an increase in value.”

Not only did the Dotcom Bubble burst, but America suffered one of the largest terrorist attacks in history on Sept. 11, 2001, and the price of gold rose steadily. The global economic crisis that shook the markets in 2008 also boosted the price.

From August 1999 to August 2011, gold rose from US$394 an ounce to US$2,066 an ounce, an increase of more than 425% over 145 months (in terms adjusted for inflation), Tavex reported.

How High Will It Go?

Investors often turn to precious metals as a hedge against inflation or during geopolitical instability and market uncertainty. Russ Koesterich, writing for BlackRock, said gold is “an imperfect hedge, but still a Buy.”

“Even under a good outcome, investors are looking at a prolonged period of uncertainty” right now, he wrote. “This scenario, combined with negative real rates, should keep gold moving higher.”

In a research note reported by CNBC, UBS noted that when it comes, the “power of the [Federal Reserve’s] policy pivot should not be underestimated.”

Still, UBS forecasted a rise to US$2,250 per ounce for gold by the end of the year. It was US$2.024.20 Friday afternoon.

In the longer term, a model by Incrementum assigning probabilities to future gold prices “currently shows a 75% chance of (US)$3,000+ by 2030,” John Rubino of John Rubino’s Substack noted.

Gold’s ‘Time Has Come’

Chaudry and his team at J.P. Morgan have determined that the number of sectors in the top 10 most valuable companies is actually less diverse than during the Dotcom Bubble, MarketWatch reported.

“Back then, there were six sectors represented among the Top 10 stocks, compared with just four today,” MarketWatch noted. “What’s more, they found that during both periods, information-technology companies represented the biggest share of the group’s total market capitalization.”

The analysts said the overall share of earnings-per-share growth contributed to the ten largest stocks was actually higher during the Dotcom Bubble, rebutting the conventional wisdom that stocks at the time had become completely disconnected from fundamentals.

“While we would be hesitant to refer to the current levels of the Top 10 as a bubble, it would certainly appear that the Top 10 in the Dotcom era was backed by superior earnings developments,” the J.P. Morgan team said.

Hussman, who predicted the 2000 and 2008 market slumps, stands by his belief that another downturn is coming and “could be even steeper this time.”

“Without making forecasts, it’s fair to say that we would not be surprised by a near-term market loss on the order of 10% or more in the S&P 500, nor would we be surprised by a full-cycle market loss on the order to 50-65%, nor a US recession that the consensus seems to have ruled out,” Hussman said.

On his website, Addicted to Profits, David Skarica also saw similarities with earlier gold markets and predicted the metal will rise in value “sometime this year.”

“The closer we inch to seeing those rate cuts finally happen, the gold can finally see that breakout,” he said.

Global analyst Adrian Day, writing for Streetwise Reports last month, said gold’s “time has come.”

“For nearly two years, we have been saying that gold will take off when the market believes that the Fed will change course on tightening before inflation is vanquished,” he wrote. “We are at that point now. The Fed’s pivot comes with the Fed’s own preferred inflation measure at 60% above its own target. It is monetary factors, not geo-political, that will see a sustained move higher in gold.”

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  2.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (21,325 contracts) with Silver (3,689 contracts), Platinum (3,208 contracts) and Palladium (917 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-21,683 contracts) with Steel (-255 contracts) also recording slightly lower bets for the week.


Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (52 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (43.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.8 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.2 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.8 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.9 percent)

 

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets were in negative 6-week trends. Steel (-9 percent) had the least negative trend score over the past six weeks for metals while Gold (-24 percent) came in as the market with the largest negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.4 percent)
Silver (-12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.3 percent)
Copper (-12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.3 percent)
Platinum (-12.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-15.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 147,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.927.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.666.95.3
– Net Position:147,791-170,51822,727
– Gross Longs:219,222117,52545,364
– Gross Shorts:71,431288,04322,637
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.155.744.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.123.1-9.1

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.730.322.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.058.010.1
– Net Position:21,426-37,77816,352
– Gross Longs:52,77841,38730,191
– Gross Shorts:31,35279,16513,839
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.146.157.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.713.9-15.0

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.039.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.736.46.9
– Net Position:-8,5987,2711,327
– Gross Longs:71,10090,92917,116
– Gross Shorts:79,69883,65815,789
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.477.726.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.712.4-4.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.023.912.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.446.84.6
– Net Position:11,549-17,0745,525
– Gross Longs:43,81817,7278,942
– Gross Shorts:32,26934,8013,417
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.258.242.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.69.213.0

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.853.18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.09.67.0
– Net Position:-10,70010,302398
– Gross Longs:4,92712,5742,065
– Gross Shorts:15,6272,2721,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.292.465.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.89.255.0

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.683.11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.575.11.0
– Net Position:-2,1871,982205
– Gross Longs:2,61220,479440
– Gross Shorts:4,79918,497235
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.012.254.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.89.1-8.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Is This Rare Earth Stock Undervalued?

Source: Clive Maund  (1/29/24) 

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at Defense Metals Corp.’s 5-year, 15-month, 4-month, and 2-month charts to explain why he believes it is an Immediate Speculative Buy.

Given the excellent and improving fundamentals for Defense Metals Corp. (DEFN:TSX.V; DFMTF:OTCQB; 35D:FSE), it is rather surprising that its stock is not already a lot higher than it is. The core of the story is that the company is advancing a major Rare Earth Metals resource that is situated in North America toward production at a time when demand looks set to ramp up due to increasing demand from the defense industry due to the proliferation of various military conflicts around the world as supplies from the world’s biggest producer of Rare Earth Metals — China — are at risk of being choked off and possibly halted completely.

On its 5-year chart, we see that, apart from a dramatic spike early in 2021 that was completely reversed, the price has essentially been rangebound throughout this period, but even on this long-term chart, we can see that there is something different about the recent rally which kicked off with a large gap move out of the preceding downtrend that was accompanied by the strongest upside volume for at least 5 years, driving the Accumulation line strongly higher.

This action implies that it is going to do more — probably a lot more — than simply rally up to the resistance level shown at the upper boundary of the broad trading range.

Zooming in via a 15-month chart that allows us to see the preceding downtrend in its entirety, we can see the powerful breakout last month. This move was on a very heavy volume and accompanied by a large gap, which, taken together, have strongly bullish long-term implications and portend that the stock will eventually head much higher.

This advance took the price up quickly to hit the resistance level in an overbought state, which is why it has since stopped to consolidate.

On the 4-month chart, we can examine recent action in much more detail, and on this chart it can be discerned that all of the action leading into the recent low and that has followed comprises a rather odd-shaped Cup & Handle base and it is clear that, following the move that broke the price out of the downtrend in December, it has been consolidating to form the Handle of this base pattern, with this period of consolidation allowing time for the earlier overbought condition to ease and for the rising 50-day moving average to pull up closer to the price, the better to propel the next upleg that will break the price out above the resistance at the top of the Handle of the pattern and quickly lead to a bullish cross of the moving averages. Interestingly and unusually, the Handle of this pattern itself contains a lower order Cup & Handle continuation pattern rather in the manner of “Russian dolls” that we will now look at on a 2-month chart.

The 2-month chart “opens out” the action following the sharp December breakout move, enabling us to see the fine small Cup & Handle pattern that has formed, which, unlike the larger order Cup & Handle pattern, is not classed as a base, because it has nothing to reverse, and it is therefore instead classed as Cup & Handle continuation pattern, rather like the Head-and-Shoulders continuation patterns that we sometimes see.

The most important point to observe on this chart, apart from the price action, is the strongly bullish volume pattern, with the gap breakout move being on heavy volume that has since progressively died back, especially as the Handle of this little pattern has formed, with the Accumulation line holding up well all the while.

With the Handle of this pattern looking complete and the Handle of the larger order pattern shown on the 4-month chart also looking complete, and volume now very light, the right conditions exist for another upleg to start soon.

Defense Metals is therefore rated an Immediate Strong Buy for all timeframes, and it is not regarded as being an unduly speculative investment.

Defense Metals’ website.

Defense Metals Corp. closed at CA$0.24, $0.18 on January 26, 2024.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. [Defense Metals Corp.] is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of [Defense Metals Corp.].
  3. Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, has compensated [Clive Maund], for writing this article. However, the views, opinions, analyses, and any recommendations in [Maund]‘s article are solely their own personal views, opinions, analyses, and recommendations, and are expressly not those of Street Smart or Streetwise Reports. The content created by [Maund] is about companies they believe in based on their personal investment opinions and analyses, and their opinions and analyses are not influenced or dictated by Streetwise Reports or its affiliates or as a result of compensation provided by Street Smart.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Lithium Tech Stock on the Verge of an Imminent Break Out

Source: Clive Maund  (1/26/24)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at Lithos Energy Ltd.’s 1-year and 6-month charts to explain why he believes it is a Strong Buy. 

Lithos Group Ltd. (LITS:CBOE.CA;LITSF:OTCQB) looks set to commence a major bull market as it is on the point of breaking out upside following a long period of consolidation.

The 1-year arithmetic chart gives us an overview of the stock’s history from when it started trading last February following a restructuring or reorganization of the company. On this chart, we see that immediately after it started trading early in February, it went into a small Pennant consolidation that led to a significant advance for about two weeks, but after that, it ran off into a long period of consolidation that, apart from a rally into early September that was completely reversed, has continued right up to the present.

Throughout this consolidation, the Accumulation line has been trending steadily higher, which is a strong positive divergence suggesting that a new bull market phase is incubating. The downtrend from the ephemeral early September peak gradually eased with the price finding support and stabilizing at the strong support level in the CA$0.52 – CA$0.54 zone, which marks the lower boundary of the trading range.

Now, we will proceed to look at recent actions in more detail on a 6-month logarithmic chart, which makes it easier to see what is going on.

On the 6-month chart, we see that the decelerating downtrend from the early September peak has taken the form of a 3-arc Fan Correction. While you can have more than 3 arcs, generally, once the price breaks above the third fanline, especially if there is marked diminution in downside momentum, which the MACD indicator climbing back to the 0 line shows to be the case, it normally marks the completion of a reversal and the start of a new bullmarket — and the price is now close to breaking above the third fanline.

The probability of Lithos Group breaking out into a new bull market soon and probably very soon is greatly enhanced by the strongly bullish volume pattern, especially recently — we can see the persistent heavy upside volume so far this month that is driving the Accumulation line to new highs as the price approaches the completion of a bull Flag or Pennant that has formed in the vicinity of the 50-day moving average which is now turning up.

So a very important breakout looks imminent, and it will be very important because it will involve a breakout from the Pennant, a breakout above the third fanline of the Fan correction, and a breakout above the nearby quite strong resistance level shown all at about the same time. It will thus have great technical significance and should mark the start of a major bull market in the stock.

Lithos Group is therefore rated a Strong Buy for all timeframes.

Lithos’ website.

Lithos Group Ltd. closed at CA$0.61 on January 19, 2024.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. [Lithos Group Ltd.] is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Lithos Group Ltd.
  3. Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, has compensated Clive Maund, sole proprietor of clivemaund.com, for writing this article. However, the views, opinions, analyses, and any recommendations in Maund’s article are solely his own personal views, opinions, analyses, and recommendations, and are expressly not those of Street Smart or Streetwise Reports. The content created by Maund are about companies he believes in based on his personal investment opinions and analyses, and his opinions and analyses are not influenced or dictated by Streetwise Reports or its affiliates or as a result of compensation provided by Street Smart.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Gold seeks fresh momentum

By ForexTime 

  • Gold trading between key weekly levels
  • Incoming US data could move precious metal
  • H4 charts show possible bullish presence
  • Four potential targets identified
  • H4 bullish scenario invalidated below 2001.68

Gold struggled for direction on Wednesday as markets remained cautious ahead of key US data that may impact bets on Fed rate cuts.

After swinging within a wide range since the start of the year, a significant move could be in the works due to fresh fundamental forces. It would be wise to keep an eye on the final quarter US GDP report on Thursday and PCE report on Friday which could rock the precious metal ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Redirecting our focus back to the technicals…

Gold has been oscillating between a weekly support level around 2005.49 and a weekly resistance level around 2060.49. The price is approaching the middle band again and although the current market structure shows a down trend, the momentum can easily shift to the upside. If the price goes higher than the last top, this will result in an early stage of a new uptrend in process.    

A look at the 4-hour time frame can provide more precision.

On the 4-hour chart the price has been oscillating around the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with the Momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillators both confirming a possible build up to the demand side.

If the price reaches the 2039.50 level, a long opportunity becomes feasible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 2039.50 and dragging it to the last bottom at 2001.68, four possible targets can be determined:

  • The first target is possible at 2054.63 (Target 1).

  • The second price target is probable at 2062.19 (Target 2).

  • The third price target is likely at 2077.32 (Target 2).

  • The fourth and last price target is feasible at 2096.23 (Target 4).

If the price breaks past the 2001.68 level, this scenario is no longer applicable, and a short option becomes viable.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-12,139 contracts), Platinum (-10,984 contracts), Gold (-8,721 contracts), Palladium (-1,977 contracts), Silver (-769 contracts) and with Steel (-316 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.4 percent)
Silver (57.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.2 percent)
Copper (9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (20.3 percent)
Platinum (44.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.9 percent)
Palladium (0.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.9 percent)
Steel (89.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.7 percent)

 

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (17 percent) and Palladium (-1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-16 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-21 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.2 percent)
Silver (-15.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.8 percent)
Copper (-21.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.4 percent)
Platinum (17.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (-1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.8 percent)
Steel (-6.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.7 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.622.310.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.964.74.5
– Net Position:179,893-207,42027,527
– Gross Longs:262,360109,28749,640
– Gross Shorts:82,467316,70722,113
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.540.758.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.68.012.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 25,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.927.622.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.560.88.9
– Net Position:25,593-43,75918,166
– Gross Longs:54,00136,48229,933
– Gross Shorts:28,40880,24111,767
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.138.567.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.910.413.7

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.542.66.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.032.25.7
– Net Position:-25,30622,8512,455
– Gross Longs:62,40893,53314,856
– Gross Shorts:87,71470,68212,401
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.490.634.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.017.116.4

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.623.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.948.34.8
– Net Position:12,557-18,4985,941
– Gross Longs:43,24317,7749,509
– Gross Shorts:30,68636,2723,568
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.655.247.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-19.325.2

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.860.610.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.97.38.1
– Net Position:-11,44910,874575
– Gross Longs:3,62312,3702,226
– Gross Shorts:15,0721,4961,651
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 18.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.396.276.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.4-2.636.1

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.780.12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.272.61.1
– Net Position:-1,7931,595198
– Gross Longs:3,11416,956440
– Gross Shorts:4,90715,361242
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.510.754.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.27.0-23.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets go lower led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Copper (-21,784 contracts) with Gold (-19,035 contracts), Silver (-6,208 contracts), Platinum (-5,498 contracts), Steel (-2,444 contracts) and Palladium (-1,317 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Platinum (70 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (58.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.4 percent)
Copper (20.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (39.9 percent)
Platinum (69.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.6 percent)
Palladium (13.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.9 percent)
Steel (90.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (31 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.2 percent)
Silver (-11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.6 percent)
Copper (-8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.6 percent)
Palladium (4.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.6 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.2 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 188,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.521.710.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.066.24.4
– Net Position:188,614-217,70129,087
– Gross Longs:271,665106,48950,574
– Gross Shorts:83,051324,19021,487
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.3 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.436.563.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.20.431.7

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.129.222.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.162.39.1
– Net Position:26,362-43,75517,393
– Gross Longs:52,88638,49529,378
– Gross Shorts:26,52482,25011,985
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.238.563.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.85.221.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.137.67.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.533.25.9
– Net Position:-13,1679,0294,138
– Gross Longs:64,26277,70816,397
– Gross Shorts:77,42968,67912,259
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.379.144.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.43.432.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.620.311.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.959.84.2
– Net Position:23,541-28,3804,839
– Gross Longs:47,20914,6317,883
– Gross Shorts:23,66843,0113,044
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.3 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.934.832.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.2-29.28.0

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.663.39.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.911.39.4
– Net Position:-9,4729,40468
– Gross Longs:3,55111,4571,766
– Gross Shorts:13,0232,0531,698
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.986.645.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-6.214.7

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.375.32.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.769.10.9
– Net Position:-1,4771,241236
– Gross Longs:4,07815,118426
– Gross Shorts:5,55513,877190
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.79.458.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.74.8-3.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Gold on standby mode as US CPI looms

By ForexTime 

  • Gold in a correction wave of W1 uptrend
  • Possible bullish momentum building on D1/H4 timeframe
  • 4 potential bullish targets if 2042.09 breached
  • Bullish scenario invalidated below 2020.31 ​​​​​​​
  • Incoming US CPI report could trigger volatility

Gold prices were steady on Thursday ahead of a key US inflation report that may influence market expectations around when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

The precious metal is busy with a correction wave in an uptrend on the weekly timeframe which could act as a possible area of trendline support. Looking at the daily charts, a downtrend is advancing but the price is getting closer to a weekly support level and a higher bottom might already be in progress.

A significant move could be around the corner with the incoming US CPI report acting as a fundamental catalyst. More evidence of cooling price pressures may boost bets around the Fed cutting interest rates, supporting gold prices as a result. However, a hot reading could dampen hopes around the Fed taking action early this year – potentially dealing a blow to zero-yielding gold.  

Redirecting our attention back to the technical…

A look at the 4-hour time frame will yield more insight.

The 4-hour chart is still in negative territory with the price dipped below the 50 Exponential Moving Average. The market structure has given a warning though by making a higher bottom and traders will be watching closely to see how the market reacts to the upcoming CPI news event.  If buying pressure increases and the price goes above 2042.09, a long opportunity will be on the books.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 2042.09 and dragging it to the higher bottom at 2020.31, four possible targets can be determined:

  • The first target is at 2050.80 (Target 1).

  • The second price target is likely to be 2055.16 (Target 2).

  • The third price target is possible at 2063.87 (Target 3.

  • The fourth and last price target is viable at 2074.76 (Target 4) if the buy pressure can continue for long enough.

If the price at 2020.31 is broken, this scenario is no longer valid.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Gold bears linger ahead of Fed minutes

By ForexTime 

  • Gold in corrective wave on D1 uptrend.
  • Price slipped below 50 LWMA on H4 time frame.
  • 4 potential bearish targets if 2055.82 breached.
  • Bearish scenario invalidate above 2078.99 level
  • Watch out for ISM, Jolts data and Fed minutes

Gold regained some upward momentum in the second half of December 2023, providing a foundation for prices to break through a weekly resistance now turned support at 2060.49.

A correction wave ensued as the market sought some balance and the possible profit-taking of market participants began taking its toll. In the process, bears are lurking in the background with prices pressing into the weekly support level. Zooming into the lower timeframe, a short opportunity is a possibility with our eyes on the 4-hour charts for more insight.

Before we break down the technicals, it is worth noting that gold is likely to be influenced by a string of incoming US data that could impact Fed cut expectations. All eyes will be on the Fed minutes, ISM, and Jolts data which could inject gold prices with fresh volatility later today.  

Redirecting our attention back to the technicals, the 4-hour chart provides further understanding by utilizing the fractal nature of the market structure. Here the price dipped below the 50 linear weighted moving average and made a lower bottom in the process. If the selling pressure continues to build and the price goes below 2055.82, then a short opportunity will be present. Both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also verify the decline in momentum.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 2055.82 and dragging it to a last top at 2078.99, four possible targets can be determined:

  • The first target is near 2046.55 (Target 1).

  • The second price target is likely to be 2041.92 (Target 2).

  • The third price target is possible at 2032.65 (Target 3).

  • The fourth and last price target is feasible at 2021.07 (Target 4) if the selling pressure can continue for long enough.

Risk management needs to be tight because of the notorious volatility of correction waves in general.

If the price at 2089.99 is broken, this scenario is no longer sound.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com