Archive for Metals

Gold Holds Steady but Could Rise on Tariff Developments

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The price of gold remains stable at $3,354 per troy ounce this Tuesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. Market attention remains firmly fixed on US trade policy developments.

President Donald Trump has formally notified leaders from 25 countries of new tariffs, including a 30% levy on imports from the EU and Mexico, set to take effect on 1 August. Trump warned that nations responding with retaliatory measures could face even stricter US restrictions, though he left room for further negotiations before the tariffs are imposed.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which may offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates.

While physical gold demand remains steady, central bank purchases continue to provide strong strategic support for prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar’s trajectory is having little immediate impact on gold’s movements.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD broke above the 3,340 level, hitting its local target of 3,373. Today, the market has seen a technical pullback to 3,340 (testing from above) before initiating a new upward wave towards 3,400. Once this wave concludes, we anticipate a corrective retracement to 3,340, followed by a potential further rise to 3,434. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the correction to 3,340 has completed, and the next growth wave towards 3,400 is underway. Today, we expect an advance to 3,370, after which a brief consolidation phase may form. A breakout above this range would reinforce bullish momentum towards 3,400. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on trade policy shifts and US economic data, while technical indicators suggest further upside potential after consolidation.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Does Gold Have Much Farther To Run?

Source: Clive Maund (7/10/25)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on where he believes gold is headed. 

Gold has made impressive gains so far this year, but when it spiked up to touch $3500 in the middle of April it become heavily overbought which is why it then went into a rectangular consolidation pattern that has given time for the overbought condition to fully unwind, as shown by the MACD indicator on its 6-month chart below, and has also allowed its moving averages to catch up, especially the 50-day which has now fully closed the gap with the price.

Because there is still a considerable gap with the 200-day it means that there is room for the price to break down from the Rectangle and correct back towards or to this average. In attempting to weigh the probability of this happening versus the price instead breaking out upside from the Rectangle, we need to inspect the volume pattern and volume indicators, which normally provide valuable clues in a situation like this.

However, volume and volume indicators are no longer provided by Stockcharts for the metals but we can get around this problem by using a chart for the same time period for reliable gold proxy SPDR Gold Shares, whose chart is almost identical, which does show volume and volume indicators.

So, on the 6-month chart for SPDR Gold Shares, we see that, while the volume pattern is a little hard to decipher, the Accumulation line has continued to trend higher from the April peak as the price has tracked sideways and has even made new highs in recent days.

This is bullish and implies that, rather than breaking lower into a correction, GLD and thus gold itself will instead break higher into a new upleg. If it does break lower a likely scenario is that a short, sharp drop is followed by a rapid reversal to the upside.

Zooming out now to look at gold on a longer-term 6-year log scale chart we see that it broke out early last year from a big trading range to commence a powerful uptrend — an uptrend that remains very much in force, with the price still well above the lower rail of the channel — even if it broke down from the Rectangle shown on the chart above and dropped to the $3100 level it would not violate this channel.

On this chart, we can better see just how overbought gold got last April, hence the trading range that has since formed that we looked at above.

Zooming out again via a very long-term log-scale chart going all the way back to the start of the millennium, i.e., to the year 2000, affords us an overall Big Picture perspective.

This chart makes clear that the breakout early last year from the large trading range that started to form in the middle of 2020 actually marked the breakout from the Handle of a gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that started to form as far back as 2012.

This is a truly enormous consolidation pattern that certainly has the capability to support a correspondingly big bull market and as we are only about 16 months into this major new bull market, it clearly has much further to run.

In conclusion, we are looking for a breakout from the current rectangular trading range that has formed from April into another major upleg. If gold should instead break down from this range and correct back towards or to its rising 200-day moving average and the lower rail of its uptrend channel, it should then reverse back to the upside into a vigorous uptrend.

Volume indicators are suggesting that the former scenario — a breakout into another upleg from the trading range without any further corrective action first — is more likely to prevail.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be  only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump dismissed any further delays to tariff hikes set for 1 August, announcing additional aggressive measures. These include a 50% duty on copper imports, potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% levy on goods from BRICS nations.

Another key factor weighing on gold was the neutral Fed outlook regarding a rate cut in July. Last week’s strong US jobs report alleviated fears of an economic slowdown, reducing expectations of imminent monetary easing.

The new tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, potentially limiting the Fed’s room for future rate reductions.

Investors are now awaiting the June FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, for further clues on the central bank’s policy direction.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming the fifth wave of a downward structure, targeting 3,233. Upon completion, a corrective wave towards 3,344 may follow before a potential resumption of declines to 3,121. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has established a downward wave to 3,286, followed by a tight consolidation range near 3,296. Today, we anticipate a drop to 3,282, followed by a retest of 3,296 (from below). A breakout below this range could extend losses towards 3,247 – a near-term target. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line sitting below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and trade uncertainties. A bearish technical structure suggests further downside potential unless key support levels hold.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

US Copper hits records on Trump’s 50% tariff threat

By ForexTime 

  • US copper hits fresh all-time highs 
  • Trump announces 50% tariffs on copper imports
  • Prices firmly bullish on D1, but RSI overbought 

Copper futures in New York surged to records on Tuesday after Trump announced a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports.

Prices jumped as high as $5.818, pushing 2025 gains to more than 36%.

Note: FXTM Copper tracks Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX division.

The prospect of steep tariffs may fuel more buying of copper before the levies officially come into effect. However, no date has been confirmed yet. 

Still, this development could spark major supply-chain ripples through global metal markets. This is already being reflected in LME copper, which has dropped as much as 2% before later rebounding.

Note: LME (London Metal Exchange) copper serves as a global benchmark for copper prices. 

Copper prices are firmly bullish, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heavily overbought.

  • BULLISH – Should $5.4 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back toward the all-time high at $5.8183 and the next psychological level at $6.0.
  • BEARISH – Weakness below $5.4 could trigger a decline back toward $5.12.
Imagen
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Gold: From Ancient Treasures to Tomorrow’s Wealth Standard

Source: Brian Hicks (7/7/25) 

Brian Hicks of Wealth Daily shares his thoughts on gold’s importance and how he believes NatGold Digital Ltd. represents a great opportunity to capitalize on gold.

Throughout human history, great societies have constructed their wealth upon golden foundations — from Roman vaults and imperial Chinese treasuries to Spanish vessels during the golden age of exploration.

In our modern era, gold transcends mere ornaments or ingots; it represents global power dynamics, international reserve banking, and a stabilizing force against currency uncertainty. Within this unfolding narrative, my bold projection — $16,402 per ounce — reflects both historical patterns and calculated foresight.

Let me explain why precious metal markets are poised for an unprecedented upward trajectory, examining the evidence. . .

Financial Titan’s Resource Stockpiling

Investment legend Ray Dalio, who established Bridgewater Associates, consistently advocates for gold as protection against monetary devaluation and institutional vulnerabilities. His Bridgewater funds recently expanded physical gold holdings substantially, directing $319 million during the year’s first quarter alone.

His reasoning stems from historical understanding: tracking gold’s evolution. Dalio’s perspective aligns perfectly with our analysis: Gold’s thousand-year journey now intersects with dollar weakness, mounting international liabilities, and transforming global hierarchies. His guiding principle resonates: Gold exists “independent of any one nation’s economy.”

Wealthy Investors Securing Mining Interests

This precious metal pursuit extends beyond major investment firms. Ultra-wealthy individuals are claiming their stakes.

  • John Paulson — renowned from the 2008 financial meltdown — anticipates $5,000 gold within three years. He’s invested $1 billion into Alaska’s Donlin Gold venture, targeting one of Earth’s richest undeveloped reserves. His analysis suggests that central banking institutions pivoting from traditional currencies drives this movement.
  • Thomas Kaplan — mining entrepreneur and Donlin participant through NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG:TSX; NG:NYSE.MKT) — supports this optimistic outlook. His Kaplan Doctrine advises investing in premium, expandable deposits within secure jurisdictions. This pattern reveals a broader shift: Financial elites transitioning from passive bullion ownership to enhanced exposure via mining operations.

I’m thoroughly convinced my $16,402 price target isn’t mere speculation — it’s a calculated strategy.

Reserve Banks: Contemporary Gold Guardians

National reserve institutions propel gold’s market ascension. A January 2025 HSBC survey spanning 72 central banks discovered over one-third planned to boost gold reserves — with none indicating reductions.

Bloomberg confirms: “Central banks will keep buying gold in a push to diversify away from paper currencies amid political and economic upheaval.”

BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) spearhead this accumulation. Russia has amassed reserves since its 2022 asset confiscation — a cautionary lesson about traditional currency risks. China and India, culturally connected to gold, have expanded both national reserves and domestic bullion demand. As one market observer noted, gold increasingly serves as the “de-dollarization tool” against Western financial influence.

BRICS Alliance and Gold-Centered Economic Systems

The BRICS coalition represents more than trade partnerships and political alignment — it signals monetary strategy evolution. India, China, Russia, and additional members explore de-dollarized trade settlements, potentially incorporating gold-backed frameworks. While a formal “gold-based currency” partnership remains aspirational, the momentum grows undeniably.

BRICS participants actively expand gold reserves for financial security. A popular phrase circulates among their strategists: “When U.S. paper whispers, BRICS gold roars.” As international power structures evolve, gold assumes a transformative role in global finance.

The Weakening Foundation: Diminishing American Currency

The inverse relationship between gold and dollar values follows predictable patterns — yet accelerates now. The dollar confronts:

  • Exploding federal obligations (approaching 140% of GDP)
  • Persistent government shortfalls
  • Federal Reserve independence challenges, heightening inflation worries
  • Recurring international commerce disputes, undermining dollar confidence

These circumstances create ideal conditions for gold’s ascendancy. Our $16,402 forecast depends on continued dollar deterioration — a narrative seemingly shared by Dalio, Paulson, and monetary authorities worldwide.

Eastern Hemisphere’s Consumer Gold Enthusiasm

Asia — the global gold epicenter — maintains impressive momentum. Singapore Bullion Market Association reporting emphasizes regional consumer appetite. Yet our pathway toward $16,402 isn’t fantasy—it’s a narrative where:

Our $16,402 projection captures gold’s multifaceted convergence, representing more than mere valuation but fundamental significance. Amid currency vulnerability and global transformation, gold transcends simple hedging — it embodies historical continuity.

Now, considering gold’s trajectory toward $16,402 per ounce (many analysts project even higher valuations), NatGold Digital Ltd. represents exceptional opportunity.

Consider this crucial point: As gold appreciates, its fundamental worth increases. However, extraction expenses remain relatively stable, meaning NatGold token values will skyrocket dramatically . . . alongside your investment returns.

Let me elaborate…

How NatGold Tokens Enable Ownership Before Wall Street’s Discovery

Imagine obtaining shares in America’s subterranean gold wealth — before extraction begins. Imagine preceding Wall Street, exchange listings, and media coverage. And imagine this investment representing not just precious metal . . . but American prosperity itself.

This embodies NatGold Tokens — pioneering blockchain-secured gold certificates directly linked to verified, untouched, domestic gold deposits within American borders. This isn’t conventional stock ownership, exchange-traded funds, or another digital currency. It represents digital gold’s evolutionary leap — and following recent American economic policy shifts, could soon become central to national financial strategy.

Presidential Initiative: Establishing $12 Trillion National Investment Fund

Earlier this year, Executive Order 14241 received presidential authorization, enabling development across 640 million federal acres containing approximately $100 trillion in untapped mineral resources.

This encompasses substantial copper, uranium, rare earth elements, and crucially: gold reserves.

The presidential vision?

Creating an American Sovereign Wealth Fund utilizing tokenized natural assets — finally monetizing underground national treasures without decades-long permitting delays.

Simply stated, America is beginning to digitize its inherent wealth, with NatGold pioneering this transformation.

Digitizing Inaccessible Resources: Major Deposits Nationwide

For generations, America has possessed some earth’s most valuable — yet unavailable — gold deposits.

  • Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.’s (NDM:TSX; NAK:NYSE.MKT) Pebble Creek (Alaska) — Among the world’s largest undeveloped gold-copper resources, delayed through environmental regulatory challenges.
  • Nova Gold Resources Inc.’s (NG:NYSE) Donlin Gold (Alaska) — Contains over 39 million gold ounces, with regulatory hurdles preventing development across decades.
  • Ruth, Nevada — Premium gold concentration zone with billions in buried assets, largely abandoned through outdated extraction regulations.

These represent merely several “stranded resources” NatGold aims to unlock, not through physical extraction but digital tokenization. Each NatGold Token is supported by an authentic geological assessment verified through NI 43-101 protocols, providing token holders with a legal interest in these assets. This represents gold ownership without equipment, permits, or litigation, and zero environmental impact.

Gold: Returning as American Monetary Foundation

Since 1971, American currency has operated independently, without gold backing. Yet historical patterns often circle back. With global debt expansion, persistent inflation, and competing economies like BRICS planning gold-backed currencies, America quietly reintroduces gold into economic discussions.

Presidential conversations have included potential new gold standards — utilizing blockchain technology. Consequently, gold ownership becomes not merely prudent, but potentially fundamental to the American fiscal framework. Through NatGold Tokens, everyday investors participate before institutional recognition.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of NatGold Digital Ltd.
  2. Brian Hicks: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: NatGold Digital Ltd. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Gold declines as trade optimism reduces safe-haven demand, while a weak dollar limits losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Thursday, the price of gold fell to 3,340 USD per troy ounce, partially correcting the previous day’s gains. The decline reflects growing optimism over trade agreements, which reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Trade optimism weighs on gold, while geopolitical risks provide support

US President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a trade agreement with Vietnam, under which the US will remove some tariffs on Vietnamese goods in exchange for greater market access for American products. This boosted hopes for new bilateral trade deals, easing global trade tensions.

However, gold’s losses were contained by the weak US dollar, which remains under pressure due to fiscal risks and expectations of further Fed easing. Additional support came from the ADP private sector employment report, which showed an unexpected decline, the first since early 2022. The disappointing data raised concerns about the stability of the labour market and strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, Iran’s decision to end cooperation with the IAEA added a geopolitical risk factor, which traditionally supports gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD completed a downward wave to 3,250 USD. A correction towards 3,385 USD is expected today. Once the rebound is complete, another decline to 3,250 USD remains likely. A break below this level would suggest a continuation of the downtrend towards the next local target at 3,180 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the bearish scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating a corrective movement before a potential resumption of the decline.

On the H1 chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 3,336 USD. An upward breakout suggests the development of a fifth growth wave towards 3,385 USD. At this level, the growth potential may be exhausted, and a subsequent decline back to 3,336 USD is likely. A break below 3,336 USD would open the way for a further drop to 3,313 USD, with the prospect of continuing towards 3,250 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line above 50 and heading strictly towards 80, indicating short-term upward momentum before potential reversal.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure due to trade optimism, but weakness in the dollar and geopolitical risks continue to provide support. Technically, a correction to 3,385 USD is expected before potential further declines to 3,250 USD and 3,180 USD. The short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Copper: The Technical Breakout Hiding in Plain Sight

Source: John Newell (7/1/25) 

John Newell of John Newell & Associates reviews the copper market and shares some copper stocks he believes are worth keeping an eye on.

For years, copper has quietly built a case for being one of the most strategically important — and structurally underappreciated —  commodities in the global economy.

Today, that case is no longer just about long-term fundamentals.

Technically, copper may be on the verge of a historic breakout, with the gold-to-copper ratio flashing one of the clearest signals in decades.

The Coming Copper Supercycle

The world is entering a period of compounding copper demand across sectors that didn’t even exist a generation ago. Clean energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and data center expansion are all rapidly growing copper consumers. By some estimates, copper demand could double by 2035, from ~25 million tonnes to nearly 50 Mt.

This surge is colliding with mounting supply constraints. Ore grades have declined ~40% since 1991, permitting timelines now average more than 15 years, and only a handful of major discoveries have been made in the last decade. Mine development delays, social license challenges, and geopolitical instability in key regions are adding even more friction.

According to the International Energy Agency, even in its most optimistic scenario, a copper supply deficit of at least 1.6 million tonnes will persist by 2035, and under more aggressive climate targets, this deficit could exceed 10 million tonnes annually. With energy transition goals looming, this shortfall threatens to delay or derail critical electrification projects worldwide.

Meanwhile, new demand centers are emerging. Both India and Vietnam are poised to become major copper consumers, while China continues to dominate refining capacity with a 45% global share. Supply, however, remains concentrated in jurisdictions such as Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, increasing geopolitical and logistical risk.

The Gold-to-Copper Ratio: A Hidden Signal

While most headlines focus on copper supply and demand, the gold-to-copper ratio may offer the most striking indicator of what’s coming next.

Historically, this ratio oscillates around a long-term mean, but today, it’s signaling copper is historically cheap relative to gold.

  • At $3,300 gold, the ratio currently implies copper is undervalued at ~$5.00 per lb historically
  • At $3,300 gold, the ratio implies copper should be trading at approximately $8.00/lb to revert to the mean
  • A return to the lower bound of historical undervaluation could imply copper over $15/lb

Technically, the ratio has reached levels not seen since the early 2000s, just before copper launched into a multi-year bull market

This isn’t just a valuation story, it’s a sentiment shift. When gold leads, copper often follows. And gold’s 2024 breakout may be the prelude to a similar move in copper.

Fractal Patterns and Price Projection

Copper’s price chart is showing a clear fractal pattern resembling its 2003–2007 breakout period. Key technical levels have already been tested and held, and copper appears to be forming a bullish base with higher lows.

The breakout above $5.00/lb could confirm a long-term trend reversal.

Using Fibonacci extensions and historical symmetry:

  • A 2x move from the current base projects copper to ~$8.00–$9.00/lb
  • Longer-term targets range up to $12.00–$15.00/lb, particularly if inflation and energy transition tailwinds persist

Fundamental Tailwinds Align

Beyond charts and ratios, the copper bull thesis is grounded in urgent global realities:

Electrification & Renewables: EVs use 3–4x more copper than internal combustion engines. Offshore wind, solar farms, and smart grid infrastructure require unprecedented copper input.

AI and Data Centers: AI infrastructure and high-powered computing require heavy-duty copper wiring and cooling systems. This sector alone could consume 1–2% of global copper demand by 2030.

Falling Ore Grades: As copper grades decline globally, more energy and capital are needed to produce each tonne, raising costs and limiting supply elasticity.

Lack of Discoveries: less than 20 new copper deposits have been discovered in the last decade, compared to over 200 in the prior 23 years.

Capital Intensity and Timelines: New mine development now averages 17+ years, making it nearly impossible to respond quickly to demand shocks.

Recycling Limitations: While helpful, recycling cannot offset primary demand growth in the next two decades.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the opportunity lies in positioning before the re-rate. Major mining companies are already investing in juniors, particularly in stable jurisdictions like British Columbia, Arizona, Ontario, and Australia.

As copper breaks out technically, capital will chase leverage, and junior explorers offer the highest torque to rising copper prices.

This isn’t about chasing hype. It’s about reading the signals that the market is quietly flashing:

  • Historic undervaluation versus gold
  • Fractal price patterns signaling acceleration
  • Structural supply deficits meeting exponential demand
  • Geopolitical risks realigning the global copper map

New Generation Copper Developers Are Stepping Up

Amid mounting supply pressures and accelerating global demand, a new wave of copper exploration and development companies is emerging to meet the challenge. These juniors are advancing well-positioned projects with strategic advantages, from shorter development timelines to favorable jurisdictions, that could help close the widening copper gap.

As majors increasingly turn to partnerships and acquisitions to secure future supply, these agile explorers and developers are becoming vital players in the next chapter of copper’s story.

McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX:TSX; MUX:NYSE ) is advancing the massive Los Azules copper project in Argentina, one of the largest undeveloped copper projects in the world.

With over 10 billion pounds of contained copper, Los Azules represents a cornerstone asset with tremendous long-term leverage to rising copper prices.

Recent technical work and a defined development plan are moving the project toward pre-feasibility.

The company has also announced progress on infrastructure, permitting, and funding strategy, positioning itself as a potential takeover target or future producer as the copper cycle matures.

NexMetals Mining Corp. (NEXM:TSX.V) is quietly drilling into one of Botswana’s past-producing copper-nickel mines, and the story is picking up speed.

The Selkirk Mine already has a known copper-nickel-PGE footprint, and the company has completed 2,050 meters of new drilling with assays expected shortly.

A second drill rig is now turning, and NexMetals is also resampling historical holes and running metallurgical tests to define recovery parameters.

All this work is feeding into an updated mineral resource estimate, as the company positions Selkirk for a potential copper-Ni-PGE revival at a time when global supply remains tight.

It’s early days, but with the fundamentals behind copper and the right rocks in the right address, this is a name to keep an eye on.

Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCQB) is shaping up as a serious copper-silver-gold exploration story, backed by some of the smartest money in the business.

With Newmont (formerly Newcrest) holding a 9.5% stake and Eric Sprott at 12.5%, the company’s flagship La Plata Project in southwest Colorado is drawing comparisons to world-class porphyry systems like Cadia.

The 2023 resource at the Allard deposit shows 1.2 billion lbs of copper and 17.6 million oz of silver, with the next update expected to include gold and PGEs.

What stands out is the scale of the alteration system, over 25 km² with multiple untested targets, including Ridgeway-style zones that could host much higher grades.

With permits in place and Newmont technical input in the field, 2025 could be a breakout year.

Final Thoughts

Copper is no longer just a metal. It’s the backbone of electrification, data, mobility, and decarbonization. The market is beginning to wake up to this. But the technical charts suggest the real move hasn’t even started.

For investors who understand both the fundamental and technical case, copper could represent the most asymmetric opportunity of the next decade.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Metallic Minerals Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: [None]. My company has a financial relationship with [None]My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: [None]. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

The Golden Bull Rests

Source: Michael Ballanger (6/30/25) 

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and reviews a financing by one of his favorite copper stocks.

With stocks charging to record highs this week, and with the personal consumption expenditures showing a big drop-off in spending (-0.4% vs. +0.3% est.), the need for hedging one’s bets with a new allocation of gold or gold miners has disappeared. At the least, that was what the CNBC spin doctors were using as the “new narrative” for gold.

The gold miners, as represented by the HUI, are now off 8.1% from the high registered on June 5, but judging from some of the comments from the Twitterverse and YouTube podcasts, one might presume that gold had crashed.

The reality for old goats like me is that gold has been tracing out a top since the moment U.S. President Donald Trump did that “TACO” move (“Trump Aways Chickens Out”)  and decided to pause the tariffs that threatened to derail the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status while imploding the global bond markets. Fearing an inflationary surge brought on by tariffs, investors the world over spent March and most of April piling into gold in order to protect portfolios from a fate worse than an evening with Mark Carney.

During that period, the relative strength indices for gold from three different time lines — daily, weekly, and monthly — all moved into overbought territory simultaneously, creating one of the most stretched ticker tapes in the past decade.

As one can see from the graphic pinned below, the RSI for daily and weekly readings is now back to neutral for the weekly, while the daily RSI is actually approaching oversold status. Unfortunately, the monthly RSI is still well-ensconced in the overbought domain, which caps the upside potential but does not necessarily imply that we have entered a prolonged bear market. What it does imply is that the gold market is markedly less prone to a sudden downside shock, which a move below $3,000 would certainly create.

Make no mistake; I was lulled into a false sense of security a few weeks ago when the Israelis decided to take out the Irani nuclear sites coercing me to take a shot at some GLD:US calls which promptly reversed forcing me to the sidelines with a 25% haircut and an ample mouthful of crow-filled embarrassment.

However, I came to my senses and reverted back to my bearish stance, which I had been carrying until the Israelis sent me into panic mode. As I said to subscribers this week, “If the recent skirmish between Israel and Iran and then the American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities failed to light a fuse under gold and silver, then I have to expect that the next move is DOWN. . .”

The high of two weeks ago on the Sunday night session after the Americans sent a number of “bunker busters” into the Iranian mountains was a fleeting moment, as the market is down $180/ounce since then. From an macroeconomic viewpoint, the U.S. appears to be slowing and with that the Q1 narrative of resurging inflation and escalating debt problems being replaced with the Q2 narrative of labor market stability and corporate earnings resiliency followed by the expected Q3 narrative of accelerating growth fueled by lower interest rates and relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration.

I strongly resist the expected Q3 narrative because it reeks of the “this time is different” theme that is consistent with every other top since 1980. It is never “different this time” as greed is always followed by fear brought on by the market’s corrective behavior. The momentum-chasing behavior of those that were selling the U.S. to buy Europe and Japan was mirrored by the “sell treasuries and buy gold and silver” strategy that was a reaction to the Trump tariffs but once Trump observed how his actions led by his tweets and verbal impetuousness began to crater the U.S. bond market and the currency, the ensuing about-face marked the top in gold and the bottom in stocks. That event is “transitory” (to coin a phrase), and I believe that fiscal and foreign policy will find itself headlocked by the funding needs of the U.S. Treasury.

Trump will need to go “hat-in-hand” to the international community in order to facilitate the rollover of some $9 trillion in treasury bills that will be coming due in 2025 alone. Just as the bond market forced him to abandon his “America First” agenda, his softened approach has the stock junkies all clamoring behind his pro-growth shift and fleeing the safety of the gold and silver markets which is going to come to an abrupt end very shortly.

Near term, I expect a knee-jerk “flush” of the precious metals in the next two weeks that might take gold back under $3k and silver back under $30 just to scare the living feces out of all the late-comers that piled onto the gold trade in March-April. That, as always, will set up the perfect storm for a lasting bottom in gold that will hopefully be led by silver and the intermediate and junior developers.

After making a little money on the gold hedges in May and losing a little on the long side in early June, I am flat all leveraged gold trades, looking to establish a sizable long position in January calls between now and the middle of July. Stay tuned. The biggest phase of the golden bull is ahead of us, and with the good graces of Lady Luck and U.S. dollar weakness, silver will lead, and the junior explorers and developers will soar.

COT Report

The bullion banks took advantage of the downside action for the week ended Tuesday, June 24, by covering a few of their moderately large net short position.

At 230,560 net shorts, they have reduced exposure markedly from the 325,000 level last seen in May. It is not so much the actual number but more the trend of their activity that I watch. In fact, they are almost always short the gold futures market, and the only time I ever saw them post a net long position was in early December of 2015 at the absolute bottom of the 2011-2015 bear market, around $1,045 per ounce.

I see a Commercial net short position under 200,000 contracts by mid-July, which is bullish.

Stocks

The CNN Fear-Greed Index is sitting at a moderately bearish 65, which places it in the position of <GREED> but nowhere near the extremes of last February when it was solidly in the 85-90 level and in the position of <EXTREME GREED>. Sentiment is not yet in the “LaLaLand” phase as measured by this indicator, but based upon the volume of call buying, which took out records this week, the retail investor is maniacally consumed by the current market action.

The grey-haired professional money gang are waving their fingers and muttering “Tsk-Tsk,” pointing to Warren Buffett’s $300 billion cash position as justification for being “underinvested” in this rally, which is the strongest and most violent equity market rebound in the history of global stock exchanges. In other words, the kiddies that are normally the “suckers at the poker table” are now raking in their obscene profits leaving the older more conservative crowd in their dust.

I am modestly hedged via volatility positions and one “bleeding-from-the-eye-sockets” short via the inverse QQQ ETF (SQQ:US), which I have stubbornly refused to jettison, but only because I had a similar problem last July when I was seriously submerged on a position in the UVIX:US before the early-August “Japan carry-trade” crash rescued me, taking a 30% loss to a 405 win in under two weeks. That is what I expect to transpire in the latter part of July and lasting right through to mid-October, so the $90 million question is “When do I add?” to both volatility and to the SQQQ:US in order to capture the next correction.

Stay tuned.

Copper

After the absurdity of the one-week crash that ended on April 7, with the “Liberation Day” lows in stocks, gold, copper, and nearly everything else that lives and breathes off the Trump tweets, copper has been on a tear to the upside, closing above $5.00/lb, for the first time since late March.

This week, the red metal reclaimed that level on the heels of a report out of the LME that has copper inventories at their lowest level in decades, with a similar condition affecting the Shanghai futures exchange. Also suffering is the mighty COMEX, where everything copper-related is being hoarded as the looming shortages appear not only on the horizon but just ahead of the grill of one’s car.

The world will soon realize that leftist and “woke” policies prohibiting the exploitation of the planet’s mineral wealth ultimately rise up to “bite you in the butt” making the construction of new copper mines prohibitively expensive with prices under US$15,000 m/t (US$6.80/lb.). Those near-sighted policies of the past decade or so have resulted in no new mine supply coming on stream so when combined with the depletion from exhausted, mined-out sources in Chile and Peru and Canada, there is a looming and very real shortage about to materialize that is going to send prices spiraling northward for the balance of the decade.

The folks over at Crux Investor have published a superb article on copper entitled: “How Copper Supply Deficits Are Reshaping the Critical Minerals Landscape,” and I urge all readers to take some time to study it at this link.

I see new highs on the immediate horizon for copper and a robust second half of 2025 for the copper developers, with particular attention to those with new discoveries. Of note this week was the $12 million LIFE financing announced by one of my absolute favorites, Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) that has won the affections of a number of the institutional investors including a US$1.8 billion Asian mining fund whose lead order of $5 million was a huge testimonial to the quality of both management and their two exciting projects in Chile, Caballos and Buen Retiro. The deal is expected to close next week, oversubscribed and trading at a premium to the issue price on excellent volume.

It remains my largest holding and top pick for 2025-2026.

Next week is expected to be an uneventful one with the July 4 holiday in the U.S. falling on Friday. I suspect that most of the trading desks will be manned by juniors for most of the week since the end-of-quarter falls on a Monday.

The first two weeks of July are expected to be the strongest of the month with the remainder of the summer typically a challenge. \

We shall see. . .

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc.
  2. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: [All]. My company has a financial relationship with [None]. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: [None.] I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involve

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets mixed, led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,633 contracts) with Platinum (1,985 contracts) and Palladium (740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,644 contracts), Silver (-4,227 contracts) and with Steel (-378 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Platinum (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (56.4 percent)
Silver (94.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (60.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.4 percent)
Platinum (75.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (70.9 percent)
Palladium (70.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (65.1 percent)
Steel (64.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (66.9 percent)


Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (45 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (19.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (22.4 percent)
Copper (7.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.4 percent)
Palladium (44.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.6 percent)
Steel (-7.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.6 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.916.912.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.069.94.5
– Net Position:195,004-230,56035,556
– Gross Longs:256,07773,32355,009
– Gross Shorts:61,073303,88319,453
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.2 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.339.394.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.8-14.219.1

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.423.118.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.370.47.6
– Net Position:62,947-82,47719,530
– Gross Longs:84,49140,42232,867
– Gross Shorts:21,544122,89913,337
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.3 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.73.865.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-17.95.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.830.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.346.36.3
– Net Position:29,433-31,7192,286
– Gross Longs:70,78162,51115,032
– Gross Shorts:41,34894,23012,746
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.643.131.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-6.4-3.2

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.718.510.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.748.45.6
– Net Position:25,212-30,1134,901
– Gross Longs:60,14318,64010,538
– Gross Shorts:34,93148,7535,637
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.625.455.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.6-37.38.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.739.013.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.721.98.0
– Net Position:-4,5083,3591,149
– Gross Longs:8,1867,6612,714
– Gross Shorts:12,6944,3021,565
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.622.983.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.7-48.115.7

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.968.80.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.265.90.5
– Net Position:-1,074932142
– Gross Longs:8,14322,470294
– Gross Shorts:9,21721,538152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.736.054.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.16.319.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Gold Prices Decline as Risk Appetite Grows, Reducing Safe-Haven Demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold has fallen to $3,296 per troy ounce, despite a weaker US dollar, as investors remain focused on the potential easing of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

Market expectations suggest that Donald Trump could announce his nominee for Fed chair as early as September or October, with the likely candidate favouring a more accommodative monetary stance.

Jerome Powell, the current Fed chair, has indicated that the absence of new trade duties is helping to curb inflation, potentially paving the way for multiple rate cuts, provided no aggressive tariffs are introduced after 9 July.

Recent Statdata revisions showed the US economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 (final estimate), reinforcing expectations of a rate cut. However, this weak performance was partially offset by a drop in jobless claims, which fell to a five-week low, alongside an 11-year high in durable goods orders.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Further pressure on gold stems from easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Over the past five trading sessions, gold has remained on track for a second consecutive weekly decline.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The market remains within a broad consolidation range around $3,344. Today’s downward extension reached $3,291, with the potential for a corrective rebound to retest $3,344 (from below) before a possible decline towards $3,237. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero but turning upward.

H1 Chart:

A downward wave structure has formed, reaching $3,290. A corrective upward move towards $3,344 is anticipated today, maintaining the consolidation range. A breakout below this range could open further downside potential, targeting at least $3,237. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and reduced geopolitical risks, with technical indicators suggesting further volatility ahead.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.