Archive for Metals

31 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel which showed a small gain by 245 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,573 contracts), Copper (-2,846 contracts), Silver (-2,448 contracts), Platinum (-250 contracts) and with Palladium (-393 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads Metals markets price performances on the week

This week’s major Metals market price performances were led by Palladium, which rose by 1.10%. Gold was up marginally higher by 0.45%, while Steel rounded out the gainers with a 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Platinum dipped by -0.25% and Copper was lower by -0.50%. Silver was the biggest decliner on the week with a -2.69% decrease.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (97 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) and Gold (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.2 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (97.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (99.6 percent)
Platinum (55.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.8 percent)
Palladium (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.4 percent)
Steel (85.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (84.2 percent)

 

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover this week.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.4 percent)
Silver (-2.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.1 percent)
Copper (16.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.7 percent)
Platinum (-7.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.3 percent)
Palladium (-12.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.3 percent)
Steel (-0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 154,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,833 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.821.113.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.173.74.4
– Net Position:154,260-185,76631,506
– Gross Longs:200,70474,64147,149
– Gross Shorts:46,444260,40715,643
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.3 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.061.858.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.46.1-20.6

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,671 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.227.126.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.467.38.5
– Net Position:22,223-40,89318,670
– Gross Longs:32,75827,60527,301
– Gross Shorts:10,53568,4988,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.271.955.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-1.211.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,886 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.733.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.364.53.7
– Net Position:73,040-83,71210,672
– Gross Longs:105,67388,08320,574
– Gross Shorts:32,633171,7959,902
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.02.969.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.4-16.68.4

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,908 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.529.113.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.366.34.5
– Net Position:17,658-23,3075,649
– Gross Longs:25,99818,2678,463
– Gross Shorts:8,34041,5742,814
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.246.463.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.45.011.4

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,497 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.540.414.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.828.09.9
– Net Position:-2,8902,059831
– Gross Longs:6,4326,7392,478
– Gross Shorts:9,3224,6801,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.830.348.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.111.6-1.8

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,106 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.165.81.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.493.40.1
– Net Position:11,351-11,781430
– Gross Longs:13,23428,015477
– Gross Shorts:1,88339,79647
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.7 to 110.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.414.591.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.90.81.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
28 May

Gold Under Pressure: Third Consecutive Session of Declines

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell to 4,387 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of losses. The market remains cautious amid persistent uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continue to fuel concerns over inflation and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates.

Key disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved. Tehran continues to insist on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving its nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump previously stated that Washington would not accept a “bad deal” and was unwilling to ease sanctions on Iran, despite Tehran’s demands for financial concessions and an end to attacks.

Even if progress towards an agreement is achieved, markets still expect elevated energy prices to persist. This is likely to maintain inflationary pressure and force major central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, rather than moving towards rate cuts.

Since the beginning of the conflict, gold has already lost more than 15% of its value amid a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of higher interest rates across the global economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around 4,470 USD. A move lower towards 4,359 USD is likely. A corrective rebound to 4,470 USD (a retest from below) may follow, before a further decline towards 4,238 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,170 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,470 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,390 USD. A corrective rebound to retest 4,470 USD from below remains possible, followed by another decline towards 4,250 USD. A subsequent rebound towards 4,390 USD may follow. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

Gold remains under significant pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation expectations, and restrictive monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains dominant, although short-term corrective rebounds are possible.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
24 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-11,789 contracts) with Platinum (-2,804 contracts) and Silver (-1,440 contracts), Palladium (-582 contracts), Copper (-423 contracts) and Steel (-350 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The metals markets speculator positions continue to cool off after a roaring start to the year that had seen record high price levels almost across the board for the metals. Copper and Steel continue to have strong speculative positions as well as strong price trends. These two markets remain in extreme bullish strength levels (above 80%) currently (which shows their current levels across a range of the past three years) while the other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) have seen their speculator bets come down as well as their price levels have come back down to earth in the second quarter.

Copper leads the Metals Market price performance.

Copper was the leading gainer for the Precious Metals price performance this week with a 2.38% gain. Steel came in next with a 0.65% uptick while Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.62% rise.

On the downside, Gold was lower by less than a percent with a -0.80% decrease and was followed by Platinum which fell by -1.88%. Palladium was the biggest decliner over the past five days with a -3.34% drop.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent) and Steel (84 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) and Gold (36 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.1 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (30.8 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (55.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.8 percent)
Palladium (75.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.3 percent)
Steel (84.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (85.9 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (32 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (1.4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (2.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.7 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (-7.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.7 percent)
Steel (-1.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 159,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -11,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,622 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.618.312.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.568.84.0
– Net Position:159,833-191,62931,796
– Gross Longs:211,01869,52047,082
– Gross Shorts:51,185261,14915,286
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.3 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.259.458.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.40.9-16.5

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,111 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.326.926.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.869.38.4
– Net Position:24,671-42,66817,997
– Gross Longs:34,59127,10826,423
– Gross Shorts:9,92069,7768,426
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.369.051.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-6.013.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,309 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.732.47.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.265.53.4
– Net Position:75,886-85,4999,613
– Gross Longs:107,48383,51118,455
– Gross Shorts:31,597169,0108,842
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.61.464.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.8-27.9-9.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,712 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.629.313.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.166.25.3
– Net Position:17,908-23,1125,204
– Gross Longs:26,14818,4268,545
– Gross Shorts:8,24041,5383,341
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.846.958.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-0.22.4

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,915 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.240.614.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.731.59.5
– Net Position:-2,4971,563934
– Gross Longs:6,2527,0072,578
– Gross Shorts:8,7495,4441,644
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.427.252.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.37.3-2.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,456 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.664.61.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.193.20.2
– Net Position:11,106-11,521415
– Gross Longs:12,74626,059498
– Gross Shorts:1,64037,58083
– Long to Short Ratio:7.8 to 10.7 to 16.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.215.690.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.10.93.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
19 May

Gold Recovers Some Losses: What’s Driving the Market?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold rose to 4,600 USD per ounce on Tuesday, continuing its recovery from the previous session, and is now trading around 4,548 USD. Market sentiment was supported by hopes of a possible resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran, which has somewhat eased concerns over inflation and the energy crisis.

US President Donald Trump announced that he had postponed a planned strike on Iran following appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. According to him, the Gulf states believe an agreement with Tehran is still possible.

Earlier, gold had been under pressure due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rising oil prices increased inflationary risks and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes by central banks globally.

Additionally, accelerating US inflation continues to weigh on the market. Investors are revising their expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the likelihood of a rate cut this year declining significantly. Discussions are increasingly focusing on the potential for another rate increase before year-end.

Market attention now turns to the upcoming release of FOMC minutes and preliminary US PMI data. These reports could provide fresh signals regarding the state of the economy and the Fed’s next steps.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold has rebounded towards 4,590 USD and is now moving lower towards 4,400 USD. A corrective bounce to 4,550 USD is possible, followed by a further decline towards 4,250 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below 4,555 USD and continues to move lower towards 4,400 USD. A corrective rebound to 4,550 USD (testing from below) may follow, before a further decline towards 4,250 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold is recovering from recent losses, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and hopes for renewed US–Iran talks. However, strong US inflation and expectations of further Fed rate hikes continue to exert downward pressure. Technical indicators suggest a mixed short-term outlook, with potential corrective rebounds followed by further declines.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
15 May

Gold Falls on US Inflation Concerns as Week Ends in Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold continued its decline on Friday, falling to 4,619 USD per ounce. The week is set to close with losses of around 1%, as mounting US inflation puts pressure on the market. Rising prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated rates for longer or even resume rate hikes.

Data released this week showed that US manufacturing inflation rose at its fastest pace since 2022 in April, while consumer prices recorded the most significant increase since 2023.

The primary driver of inflationary pressure remains the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to influence global energy markets.

In this context, the market has largely ruled out a Fed rate cut for 2026. Some investors are even pricing in the possibility of a further rate hike by December.

Investor attention was also drawn to the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which ensuring open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to support global energy trade was a key topic.

Separately, the market is keeping an eye on India, where authorities have further tightened regulations on gold imports as part of measures to support the rupee.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold has broken below 4,639 USD and is moving lower towards 4,550 USD. A corrective rebound to 4,630 USD (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline towards 4,500 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,639 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,555 USD. A rebound towards 4,639 USD may follow before a further decline towards 4,550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure as US inflation data strengthens the case for sustained or higher interest rates. Short-term technical indicators suggest further downside potential, although temporary corrections may occur. Geopolitical developments and policy decisions in major economies will continue to dictate market sentiment.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

 

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.615.813.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.269.93.7
– Net Position:163,303-198,93535,632
– Gross Longs:211,81458,23049,252
– Gross Shorts:48,511257,16513,620
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.756.570.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.00.4

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.026.926.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.468.79.5
– Net Position:23,892-40,53516,643
– Gross Longs:32,96526,09425,811
– Gross Shorts:9,07366,6299,168
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.072.444.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3-0.45.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.435.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.466.63.7
– Net Position:62,849-72,0179,168
– Gross Longs:96,26182,82917,854
– Gross Shorts:33,412154,8468,686
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.88.461.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-22.22.1

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.666.55.4
– Net Position:17,785-22,6514,866
– Gross Longs:26,66817,6598,130
– Gross Shorts:8,88340,3103,264
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.548.154.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-2.3-7.9

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.039.314.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.334.510.0
– Net Position:-1,476775701
– Gross Longs:6,4026,2892,307
– Gross Shorts:7,8785,5141,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.222.444.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.54.8-19.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.564.31.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.494.60.2
– Net Position:11,217-11,631414
– Gross Longs:12,51624,734483
– Gross Shorts:1,29936,36569
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.7 to 17.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.815.189.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.215.1-8.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
04 May

Gold Supported by Cautious Optimism

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold is holding at around 4,611 USD per ounce on Monday as markets assess Donald Trump’s proposal to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tentative signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations.

The plan involves assisting civilian ships from neutral countries in safely leaving the conflict zone and restoring access to the shipping route. At the same time, Iran has stated that it is reviewing the US response to its latest proposal, which has helped support hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

However, the conflict, now entering its tenth week, continues to drive energy prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures. This has reinforced expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further if inflation risks persist.

Since the beginning of the confrontation, gold has remained under pressure and has lost around 12% of its value. At the same time, data from the World Gold Council show that central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing underlying support for long-term demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating above the 4,600 USD  evel. A move higher could open the way for a corrective rebound towards 4,704 USD. On the downside, a fresh decline towards 4,430 USD cannot be ruled out. The MACD indicator supports the current recovery bias: the signal line remains below the zero mark but continues to point firmly upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,620 USD level and is extending its move towards 4,580. In the near term, a rebound towards 4,690 USD remains possible as a retest from below, followed by a potential pullback to 4,625 USD. After that, a further move higher towards 4,741 USD may develop. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line remaining below 50 and pointing lower towards 20, signalling short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between cautious optimism over diplomacy and persistent inflation risks driven by the Middle East conflict. While short-term price action remains fragile, continued central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to provide underlying support for gold in the medium to longer term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
01 May

Why the CRB Index May Be Signaling the Next Commodity Move

Source: John Newell (4/30/26) 

John Newell of John Newell & Associates takes a look at the CRB Index and reviews companies on the index he believes might be positioned for the next upleg.

The Thomson Reuters/ Core Commodity CRB Index is one of those indicators that does not always get the attention it deserves, but it should. It quietly reflects what is happening across the entire commodity complex, not just gold, silver, or copper in isolation, but the full spectrum of raw materials that drive the global economy.

At its core, the CRB Index is a basket of commodities that includes energy, metals, and agricultural products. Because energy carries a heavy weighting, shifts in oil can influence the index, but the broader message comes from how all these components move together. When the CRB trends higher, it typically reflects strengthening demand, tightening supply, or rising inflation pressures. When it trends lower, it often signals the opposite.

For years, the CRB has been stuck in a wide, grinding range. Rallies would start, build some momentum, and then fade. That kind of price action usually tells you the sector is under-owned and lacking a strong macro tailwind.

That may now be changing.

The decline into the 2020–2021 lows marked a classic capitulation phase. The selling was sharp and emotional, the kind of move that tends to mark the end of a cycle rather than the middle of one. What followed has been a steady recovery, but more importantly, a shift in structure. The CRB has begun to build higher lows, and that is often the first sign that a market is transitioning from distribution into accumulation.

I often refer to the idea of “same way down, same way up,” and the CRB is starting to show that kind of symmetry. The area around 270 marked what I call the Point of Recognition, where the market proved the downtrend had lost control. Since then, the consolidation has been constructive, not weak.

From here, the roadmap becomes clearer. Levels around 440 and 530 represent logical steps along the way, while a move toward 700 would suggest something much larger, potentially the early stages of a new commodity cycle.

Now, none of this happens in a straight line. Corrections are part of the process, and in many ways, they are where the best information shows up.

Because what holds up best during a correction often leads the next move higher.

What Goes Down the Least…

One of the simplest observations in market behavior is that relative strength matters. Stocks that refuse to break down when their sector is under pressure tend to outperform when sentiment turns.

In the recent pullback across precious metals and energy, a few names have stood out. They have not collapsed. They have held structure, built higher lows, and in some cases continued advancing.

Those are the ones I pay attention to.

Honey Badger Silver Inc.

Honey Badger Silver Inc. (TUF:TSXV; HBEIF:OTCQB) is a story that has quietly evolved from a collection of exploration assets into something more substantial.

The company’s strategy has been straightforward but effective. Rather than chasing high-risk exploration alone, management has focused on acquiring silver ounces in the ground at low cost, often in past-producing districts with infrastructure already in place. That approach has allowed the company to build scale without excessive dilution.

The turning point came with the acquisition of the Prairie Creek Project in the Northwest Territories. This is not just another exploration play. It is a high-grade, fully permitted silver-zinc-lead project with existing underground development and a defined resource base. Historically, Prairie Creek hosts roughly 240 million ounces of silver equivalent in measured and indicated categories, with an additional 167 million ounces inferred.

That scale matters, especially in a market where new discoveries are harder to come by and permitting timelines continue to stretch.

What stands out is the valuation gap. While many peers trade at significantly higher values per ounce in the ground, Honey Badger remains priced at a fraction of that level. That disconnect creates the potential for a re-rating as the market begins to recognize the underlying asset base.

From a market standpoint, the stock has already shown strength. It has achieved earlier upside targets and, despite a pullback in silver, has held its structure and built a new base. That type of behavior is not typical in this space, and it often points to accumulation rather than distribution.

Management is another piece of the puzzle. With a capital markets background and experience building and financing companies, the team has shown discipline in how it has grown the asset base.

This is no longer just an exploration story. It is becoming a development story, and that shift can be meaningful if the broader commodity cycle continues to improve.

Lux Metals Corp. 

Lux Metals Corp (LXM:TSXV; BBBMF:OTCMKTS) is still early in its story, but that is part of what makes it interesting.

The company is focused on advancing its copper and gold assets, positioning itself within a sector that continues to benefit from long-term demand tied to electrification and infrastructure. While the broader market has been volatile, Lux has been quietly building a more constructive structure.

What stands out here is the transition from a prolonged downtrend into a basing phase, followed by the early signs of higher lows. That shift may seem subtle, but it is often where the biggest opportunities begin.

On the fundamental side, the company is still in the exploration and development stage, which means the value is tied to what it can prove in the ground. In a stronger commodity environment, that optionality becomes more valuable, particularly for companies with clean structures and room to grow.

What I am watching is how the stock behaves around key levels. Holding support and continuing to build higher lows during a broader correction suggests that sellers are losing control. If that continues, the next phase tends to come quickly.

Lux fits the profile of a company that could benefit from renewed interest in base metals, particularly if the CRB continues to strengthen.

ATHA Energy Corp.

ATHA Energy Corp. (SASK:TSX.V; SASKF:OTCMKTS; X5U:FRA) sits in a different part of the commodity spectrum, but the setup is similar.

The company is focused on uranium, a sector that has quietly been building momentum as the world rethinks energy security and the role of nuclear power. With a large land position and exposure to high-quality uranium districts, ATHA has positioned itself within a theme that is gaining traction.

What stands out technically is that the stock has already moved through earlier upside targets and continues to build higher lows. Even during recent volatility, the structure has held.

That is not something you see in weaker names.

From a fundamental perspective, uranium remains one of the more compelling long-term stories in the resource space. Supply constraints, increasing demand for clean energy, and geopolitical considerations all support the case for higher prices over time.

ATHA provides leverage to that theme, and the market appears to be recognizing it.

The combination of improving fundamentals and a chart that continues to act well places it firmly in the category of relative strength.

The Bigger Picture

What ties all of this together is the backdrop.

The CRB Index appears to be transitioning out of a multi-year base. That does not guarantee a straight move higher, but it does suggest the environment is improving.

At the same time, we are seeing select companies that are not breaking down during corrections. They are holding structure, building higher lows, and quietly positioning themselves for the next move.

That combination matters.

Because when the commodity cycle turns, capital does not flow evenly. It flows first into the names that are already acting right.

The CRB gives us the signal.

These companies are giving us the early confirmation.

And if this is the beginning of a broader move in commodities, then the real opportunity will not come from the index itself. It will come from the companies that have already shown they can hold their ground when the market tests them.

That is where I would be focusing my attention right now.

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Lux Metals Corp.
  2. John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of:  Lux Metals Corp. and Honey Badger Silver Inc. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions
27 Apr

Gold Declines Amid Geopolitics, with Optimism Limited

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell below 4,700 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending last week’s losses. Pressure on the precious metal has intensified following the breakdown of attempts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting inflationary risks.

Donald Trump cancelled the US delegation’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations, while Tehran stated that it would not participate in dialogue under pressure or while under blockade.

Meanwhile, oil prices are rising. The Middle East conflict has now entered its ninth week. According to the IEA, it has triggered the largest supply shock in the energy market in recent history.

High inflationary risks are increasing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further, putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, remains cautious. The market still anticipates a gradual rate cut, but not in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,690 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,751 USD, while a downside break could lead to a move lower towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,710 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,680 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,610 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflationary risks. With the conflict now in its ninth week and the IEA describing it as the largest supply shock in energy markets, central banks are expected to maintain or even tighten policy rates for longer. This environment remains unfavourable for non-yielding gold. The Fed’s cautious stance offers little immediate relief. Technical indicators point firmly lower, with further downside towards 4,616–4,610 USD likely in the near term.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculator Bets Higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold


The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (4,095 contracts) with Gold (1,480 contracts), Steel (430 contracts), Silver (158 contracts) and Palladium (68 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a decrease by -67 contracts.

Metals Markets were overall lower in price performance this week.

The Precious Metals market’s price performances were mostly lower across the board this week. Steel was the only gainer and saw just a small edge higher by 0.16%.

On the downside, Copper dipped by -0.78% and was followed by Gold which fell by -1.83%. Platinum was lower by -3.77% followed by Palladium, which dropped by -3.92% on the week.

Silver was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -5.39% decline.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (88 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (85 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.3 percent)
Silver (26.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (26.5 percent)
Copper (88.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (84.6 percent)
Platinum (62.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.6 percent)
Palladium (85.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (88.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (86.3 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (15 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.4 percent)
Copper (7.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.4 percent)
Platinum (14.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.0 percent)
Palladium (-5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.0 percent)
Steel (-4.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,526 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.215.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.470.93.6
– Net Position:164,006-202,94038,934
– Gross Longs:212,89356,26152,223
– Gross Shorts:48,887259,20113,289
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.954.979.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.40.0-2.7

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,562 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.828.022.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.263.57.8
– Net Position:23,720-40,98517,265
– Gross Longs:33,23332,35726,253
– Gross Shorts:9,51373,3428,988
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.771.747.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.40.91.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,109 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.035.18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.462.74.1
– Net Position:59,204-69,33510,131
– Gross Longs:90,14287,85520,417
– Gross Shorts:30,938157,19010,286
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.410.766.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-5.8-4.3

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,603 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.727.612.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.668.64.9
– Net Position:20,536-25,3874,851
– Gross Longs:28,94017,1337,859
– Gross Shorts:8,40442,5203,008
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.441.154.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.6-11.4-15.8

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.135.515.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.735.39.0
– Net Position:-98530955
– Gross Longs:6,8845,3002,297
– Gross Shorts:7,8695,2701,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.417.953.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.58.8-20.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.965.71.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:1.796.00.4
– Net Position:11,980-12,415435
– Gross Longs:12,66526,882590
– Gross Shorts:68539,297155
– Long to Short Ratio:18.5 to 10.7 to 13.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.311.692.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.98.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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