COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 66

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Speculators Weekly Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (29,641 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (12,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,481 contracts), Fed Funds (4,973 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-32,931 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-7,232 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,377 contracts).

Some Highlights of this week’s bonds data:

5-Year Bonds bets fell again this week and dropped to the most bearish level in 216-weeks, dating back to October of 2018.
Eurodollar bets and futures prices have been improving steadily since hitting recent lows in August
2-Year Bond speculator positions have improved in three out of the past four weeks since falling to a record low bearish position on November 15th
The 10-Year Bond speculator bets have fallen for two straight weeks and the overall position is at the most bearish level since August 30th at a total of -376,438 contracts

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,223,627	0	-1,614,221	23	1,847,037	74	-232,816	53
FedFunds	1,402,582	38	-73,894	30	83,130	70	-9,236	36
2-Year	2,202,604	19	-521,799	10	519,176	89	2,623	53
Long T-Bond	1,185,521	40	-116,738	47	76,266	38	40,472	85
10-Year	3,822,244	52	-376,438	15	474,930	78	-98,492	57
5-Year	4,114,021	58	-691,537	0	774,022	100	-82,485	58

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) continues to lead the bond markets and is the only market close to the 50 percent or 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2 percent), 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (33.5 percent)
Eurodollar (23.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (22.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the Eurodollar (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-12.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-25.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-7.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
Eurodollar (6.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,614,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,643,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	43.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,614,221	1,847,037	-232,816
– Gross Longs:	534,813	5,006,987	353,101
– Gross Shorts:	2,149,034	3,159,950	585,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	74.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.6	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -73,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	77.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	71.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-73,894	83,130	-9,236
– Gross Longs:	121,174	1,087,398	34,439
– Gross Shorts:	195,068	1,004,268	43,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	70.0	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	6.4	11.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -521,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -534,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	57.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-521,799	519,176	2,623
– Gross Longs:	193,812	1,774,593	183,713
– Gross Shorts:	715,611	1,255,417	181,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	89.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	8.3	13.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -691,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -32,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	66.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-691,537	774,022	-82,485
– Gross Longs:	241,345	3,519,766	304,790
– Gross Shorts:	932,882	2,745,744	387,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	16.3	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -376,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -369,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	64.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-376,438	474,930	-98,492
– Gross Longs:	452,127	2,938,306	336,813
– Gross Shorts:	828,565	2,463,376	435,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	78.3	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.6	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	62.8	17.6
– Net Position:	-101,471	195,085	-93,614
– Gross Longs:	169,295	1,094,617	158,109
– Gross Shorts:	270,766	899,532	251,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	90.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.7	-10.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	79.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-116,738	76,266	40,472
– Gross Longs:	60,004	938,513	176,212
– Gross Shorts:	176,742	862,247	135,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	37.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.1	8.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	83.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	62.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-367,168	310,758	56,410
– Gross Longs:	59,908	1,194,785	165,771
– Gross Shorts:	427,076	884,027	109,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	64.5	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-13.3	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Dec

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 236-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,398 contracts) with Corn (13,855 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,358 contracts), Sugar (9,927 contracts) with Cocoa (5,353 contracts), Coffee (5,172 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,552 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-10,669 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-5,281 contracts), Cotton (-4,281 contracts) and Wheat (-21 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Soybean Meal speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Soybean Meal rose this week for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Soybean Meal (currently at +133,532 contracts) to the highest level in the past two-hundred and thirty-six weeks, dating back to June 5th of 2018.

Soybean Meal futures prices dipped this week despite the continued strong sentiment. The Soybean Meal futures price had previously gained for three straight weeks and hit the highest price level since March above the 470.0 threshold. The futures price closed out the week right around the 460.0 support/resistance area.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,450,482	4	229,559	5	-247,747	97	18,188	29
Gold	437,040	4	125,649	24	-138,529	76	12,880	12
Silver	125,555	4	22,819	39	-35,806	61	12,987	33
Copper	162,191	11	2,556	38	-6,559	62	4,003	48
Palladium	7,494	8	-883	20	854	77	29	43
Platinum	72,416	43	28,445	47	-32,624	55	4,179	24
Natural Gas	996,823	9	-153,681	32	129,960	72	23,721	36
Brent	148,097	10	-28,567	62	25,351	36	3,216	53
Heating Oil	270,751	24	17,308	68	-32,771	36	15,463	52
Soybeans	638,744	14	113,059	46	-82,011	64	-31,048	19
Corn	1,205,259	0	212,230	57	-173,223	47	-39,007	21
Coffee	198,702	11	-9,470	8	8,451	93	1,019	14
Sugar	899,777	38	193,051	60	-228,593	38	35,542	52
Wheat	335,354	21	-39,918	0	42,894	100	-2,976	95

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (57 percent), Live Cattle (53 percent) and Soybeans (46 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Lean Hogs (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.4 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (56.9 percent)
Coffee (7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (45.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (93.8 percent)
Live Cattle (53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (37.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (18.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (34.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (43 percent) and Cocoa (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-24 percent), Corn (-16 percent) and Lean Hogs (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.8 percent)
Sugar (42.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (24.5 percent)
Coffee (-13.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-11.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-14.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-1.8 percent)
Cotton (-1.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.6 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.3 percent)
Wheat (-23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 212,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	47.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	61.7	13.4
– Net Position:	212,230	-173,223	-39,007
– Gross Longs:	316,184	570,199	122,422
– Gross Shorts:	103,954	743,422	161,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	47.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.2	8.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 193,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	44.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	70.0	6.2
– Net Position:	193,051	-228,593	35,542
– Gross Longs:	288,052	401,488	91,410
– Gross Shorts:	95,001	630,081	55,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	37.6	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.6	-39.7	17.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	53.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.7	4.0
– Net Position:	-9,470	8,451	1,019
– Gross Longs:	44,628	105,240	8,917
– Gross Shorts:	54,098	96,789	7,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.1	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.9	-13.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	50.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	63.6	12.4
– Net Position:	113,059	-82,011	-31,048
– Gross Longs:	172,330	324,126	48,054
– Gross Shorts:	59,271	406,137	79,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	64.1	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-7.8	-4.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	49.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	66.2	5.5
– Net Position:	55,642	-68,529	12,887
– Gross Longs:	95,349	203,433	35,470
– Gross Shorts:	39,707	271,962	22,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	57.1	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	26.7	-4.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	36.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.8	75.0	7.5
– Net Position:	133,532	-152,141	18,609
– Gross Longs:	148,357	142,149	47,862
– Gross Shorts:	14,825	294,290	29,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.8	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-3.6	-37.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	32.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.5	12.2
– Net Position:	58,815	-55,162	-3,653
– Gross Longs:	114,479	97,378	32,476
– Gross Shorts:	55,664	152,540	36,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	7.4	-2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	36.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	49.0	13.1
– Net Position:	33,627	-23,073	-10,554
– Gross Longs:	69,910	68,312	13,877
– Gross Shorts:	36,283	91,385	24,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	69.2	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.2	6.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	49.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	57.0	5.9
– Net Position:	14,439	-14,822	383
– Gross Longs:	62,069	98,286	12,021
– Gross Shorts:	47,630	113,108	11,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	82.6	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	2.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	46.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	56.5	3.0
– Net Position:	23,317	-26,669	3,352
– Gross Longs:	84,900	123,825	11,260
– Gross Shorts:	61,583	150,494	7,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.1	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-32.2	9.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	28.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-39,918	42,894	-2,976
– Gross Longs:	94,335	137,316	32,455
– Gross Shorts:	134,253	94,422	35,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	24.0	19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

17 Dec

Stock Market Speculator bets trend lower led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (9,651 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (5,681 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-26,403 contracts), VIX (-8,399 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,969 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-939 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-356 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,477,140	15	-230,122	14	212,726	79	17,396	30
Nikkei 225	18,813	23	-2,964	63	1,418	37	1,546	48
Nasdaq-Mini	312,984	79	19,198	86	-12,779	19	-6,419	40
DowJones-Mini	106,454	79	-12,542	24	20,249	85	-7,707	1
VIX	347,723	51	-82,978	57	85,453	42	-2,475	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	39,328	19	8,049	59	3,511	20	-11,560	57

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (86 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (63 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (14 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (57.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (63.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (82.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (26.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (65.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-14.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-14.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-19.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	54.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	29.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-82,978	85,453	-2,475
– Gross Longs:	56,330	188,883	25,721
– Gross Shorts:	139,308	103,430	28,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	41.8	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.6	14.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -230,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	73.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	64.8	10.6
– Net Position:	-230,122	212,726	17,396
– Gross Longs:	226,507	1,816,921	279,775
– Gross Shorts:	456,629	1,604,195	262,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	78.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	2.1	8.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	55.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	36.8	20.3
– Net Position:	-12,542	20,249	-7,707
– Gross Longs:	23,411	59,477	13,855
– Gross Shorts:	35,953	39,228	21,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	85.2	1.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	5.9	1.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	58.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	62.7	13.9
– Net Position:	19,198	-12,779	-6,419
– Gross Longs:	73,103	183,306	36,975
– Gross Shorts:	53,905	196,085	43,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	18.6	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-25.8	14.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	71.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-63,784	57,647	6,137
– Gross Longs:	44,847	426,831	27,878
– Gross Shorts:	108,631	369,184	21,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	65.5	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	6.7	3.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	45.9	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	38.4	13.7
– Net Position:	-2,964	1,418	1,546
– Gross Longs:	3,193	8,634	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	6,157	7,216	2,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	36.7	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	9.2	14.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	90.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	89.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-14,886	4,926	9,960
– Gross Longs:	18,081	386,031	19,545
– Gross Shorts:	32,967	381,105	9,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	66.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-24.5	73.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

10 Dec

COT Currency Speculators drive Euro bullish bets to a 92-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	45,115	56	24,886	66	-27,540	32	2,654	46
EUR	711,537	84	124,883	73	-160,005	31	35,122	35
GBP	230,311	55	-28,193	45	37,774	60	-9,581	39
JPY	223,424	64	-65,996	28	75,202	72	-9,206	35
CHF	40,171	33	-12,230	22	17,859	74	-5,629	38
CAD	148,891	29	-22,090	15	22,905	88	-815	28
AUD	158,755	51	-40,563	47	42,820	51	-2,257	47
NZD	42,954	36	-6,498	37	6,301	61	197	54
MXN	293,708	93	47,952	48	-53,360	51	5,408	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,464	7	2,198	48	-4,324	51	2,126	86
Bitcoin	15,769	83	67	78	-568	0	501	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	4.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.1	6.6
– Net Position:	24,886	-27,540	2,654
– Gross Longs:	36,157	1,838	5,610
– Gross Shorts:	11,271	29,378	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	10.8	-17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	51.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	73.5	7.0
– Net Position:	124,883	-160,005	35,122
– Gross Longs:	245,063	363,169	85,050
– Gross Shorts:	120,180	523,174	49,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	30.6	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-18.8	25.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-28,193	37,774	-9,581
– Gross Longs:	28,539	168,838	22,941
– Gross Shorts:	56,732	131,064	32,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	59.7	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-19.6	18.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	76.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.4	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,996	75,202	-9,206
– Gross Longs:	23,589	169,918	24,896
– Gross Shorts:	89,585	94,716	34,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.3	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-20.9	12.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	70.9	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	26.5	39.4
– Net Position:	-12,230	17,859	-5,629
– Gross Longs:	1,343	28,500	10,183
– Gross Shorts:	13,573	10,641	15,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	74.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-8.7	21.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	53.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	37.9	21.4
– Net Position:	-22,090	22,905	-815
– Gross Longs:	30,717	79,379	30,984
– Gross Shorts:	52,807	56,474	31,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	87.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.0	-1.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	36.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-40,563	42,820	-2,257
– Gross Longs:	36,334	101,160	16,814
– Gross Shorts:	76,897	58,340	19,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.8	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-17.5	30.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	38.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,498	6,301	197
– Gross Longs:	16,302	22,950	3,397
– Gross Shorts:	22,800	16,649	3,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-23.5	41.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.5	35.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.1	0.8
– Net Position:	47,952	-53,360	5,408
– Gross Longs:	177,555	105,410	7,854
– Gross Shorts:	129,603	158,770	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	50.5	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.0	-7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	28.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	45.5	5.7
– Net Position:	2,198	-4,324	2,126
– Gross Longs:	14,625	7,271	3,566
– Gross Shorts:	12,427	11,595	1,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	50.6	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	28.6	-3.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	1.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.8	5.5	5.5
– Net Position:	67	-568	501
– Gross Longs:	12,651	306	1,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,584	874	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	36.9	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-9.1	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Wheat lead Most Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 122,174 net contracts this week with a gain of +19,835 contract in weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -3,239 net contracts this week with a change of +320 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 13,517 net contracts this week with a gain of +3,762 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 78.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 67 net contracts this week although with a drop of -257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -39,897 net contracts this week with a -6,592 contract decline in speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -658,606 net contracts this week with a significant drop of -129,257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -27,703 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -14,642 net contracts this week with a small -6 contract change in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 231,720 net contracts this week with a weekly -8,019 contract shortfall in speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Metals Speculators boosted their Silver bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold & Platinum lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (5,122 contracts) with Platinum (1,377 contracts), Silver (1,725 contracts) and Palladium (259 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Copper at a total of -305 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the increasing bullishness of Silver positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now risen by a total of +19,309 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of -101 contracts on October 25th to a total of +19,208 contracts this week. The recent gains have now positioned the speculator standing at its highest level since May 10th, a span of 30 weeks.

The Silver futures price has been on the move as well with prices closing out the week at $23.71. This is the highest weekly close for Silver since April and Silver is now up by over +30 percent since bottoming at the beginning of September.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (43.6 percent) and Copper (37.7 percent) lead the metals category this week. Silver (35.3 percent) and then Gold (20.9 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15.7 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in an Extreme-Bearish level below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (35.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.4 percent)
Copper (37.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.9 percent)
Platinum (43.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.7 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.2 percent)

Silver & Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all metals markets were positive movers this week. Silver (21.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (19.2 percent), Gold (15.6 percent), Copper (14.8 percent) and Palladium (2.2 percent) fill out the positive movers in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (21.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.9 percent)
Copper (14.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.7 percent)
Platinum (19.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 115,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	27.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	58.7	5.4
– Net Position:	115,125	-130,079	14,954
– Gross Longs:	211,472	117,578	37,785
– Gross Shorts:	96,347	247,657	22,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	7.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	36.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	62.8	8.6
– Net Position:	19,208	-32,262	13,054
– Gross Longs:	48,954	44,757	23,648
– Gross Shorts:	29,746	77,019	10,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	64.7	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.1	19.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	41.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	44.5	8.0
– Net Position:	1,679	-4,354	2,675
– Gross Longs:	55,496	66,286	15,368
– Gross Shorts:	53,817	70,640	12,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.6	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.7	9.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	29.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.9	4.1
– Net Position:	25,636	-30,148	4,512
– Gross Longs:	36,693	20,025	7,324
– Gross Shorts:	11,057	50,173	2,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	58.0	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.1	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	49.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	34.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-1,372	1,226	146
– Gross Longs:	2,460	3,875	1,157
– Gross Shorts:	3,832	2,649	1,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	81.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-5.8	37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

10 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators drop 5-Year Treasury bets to 215-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year drops lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (65,490 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (17,631 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-129,257 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-72,434 contracts), the Fed Funds (-46,249 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-27,703 contracts), the Long US Bond (-11,444 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-6,362 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the further decrease in speculator positions for the 5-Year Bonds market. The large speculator position in 5-Year Bonds futures fell this week by the largest one-week amount (-129,257 contracts) since February and have now dropped for the third time out of the past four weeks (a total decline of -159,151 contracts over last 4-week period). This weakness in speculator bets for the 5-Year Bond has brought the overall level to its most bearish point of the past 215 weeks. The last time the 5-Year Bond bets were this bearish was October 23rd of 2018 with a total of -773,639 contracts at that time. Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond future prices have come off their November lows and touched their highest level since September this week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,263,670	0	-1,643,862	23	1,944,031	76	-300,169	38
FedFunds	1,323,028	31	-78,867	30	87,745	71	-8,878	37
2-Year	2,109,988	15	-534,540	8	529,893	91	4,647	54
Long T-Bond	1,170,663	37	-115,361	47	90,700	43	24,661	72
10-Year	3,775,431	49	-369,206	16	483,149	79	-113,943	53
5-Year	4,130,322	59	-658,606	0	770,224	100	-111,618	50

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) leads the bonds category.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent), the 2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Eurodollar (22.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (21.7 percent)

Eurodollar tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (4.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent), the Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Eurodollar (4.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,643,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 65,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	69.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	42.6	9.0
– Net Position:	-1,643,862	1,944,031	-300,169
– Gross Longs:	548,998	5,041,684	353,408
– Gross Shorts:	2,192,860	3,097,653	653,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.8	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-1.0	-43.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.6	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-78,867	87,745	-8,878
– Gross Longs:	114,699	1,039,303	30,010
– Gross Shorts:	193,566	951,558	38,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	18.5	-3.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -534,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -528,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	82.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	56.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-534,540	529,893	4,647
– Gross Longs:	171,760	1,730,674	174,708
– Gross Shorts:	706,300	1,200,781	170,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	90.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	16.4	34.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -658,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -129,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -529,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	85.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	67.0	10.1
– Net Position:	-658,606	770,224	-111,618
– Gross Longs:	229,001	3,537,413	303,580
– Gross Shorts:	887,607	2,767,189	415,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	25.5	-7.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-369,206	483,149	-113,943
– Gross Longs:	423,994	2,914,741	336,179
– Gross Shorts:	793,200	2,431,592	450,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	79.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	22.1	-15.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	64.5	17.2
– Net Position:	-106,952	189,505	-82,553
– Gross Longs:	142,263	1,099,122	160,187
– Gross Shorts:	249,215	909,617	242,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	88.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.8	-1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	79.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.7	12.7
– Net Position:	-115,361	90,700	24,661
– Gross Longs:	55,349	930,571	173,282
– Gross Shorts:	170,710	839,871	148,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	42.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	15.3	-3.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -389,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	83.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	61.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-371,773	317,929	53,844
– Gross Longs:	56,272	1,193,551	168,437
– Gross Shorts:	428,045	875,622	114,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.3	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.8	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Corn bullish bets to 19-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (19,835 contracts) with Cocoa (8,266 contracts), Sugar (4,089 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,409 contracts), Soybeans (2,453 contracts), Cotton (2,140 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,229 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-71,867 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-37,543 contracts), Wheat (-6,592 contracts) and Coffee (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent drop in Corn‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn decreased sharply this week and by the largest one-week amount since 2018 with a -71,867 contract decline. Overall, Corn bets have now fallen by -142,413 net speculator contracts in just the past five weeks, going from a total of +340,788 contracts on November 1st to a total of +198,375 contracts this week. This week’s total is the least bullish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to July 26th.

Corn futures prices have been in retreat since peaking in April of this year as the front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over 644’0. This is down almost 20 percent from the April peak, however, Corn does remain in an uptrend on the weekly charts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (56.9 percent) and Corn (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (1.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.6 percent)
Sugar (56.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (55.5 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (38.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (37.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.5 percent)
Live Cattle (48.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.1 percent)
Cotton (21.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (34.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.4 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Sugar leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Sugar (24.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (19.3 percent), Soybeans (10.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-29.9 percent) and Wheat (-26.4 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week. The next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-16.8 percent), Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) and Cotton (-4.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.4 percent)
Sugar (24.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.1 percent)
Coffee (-29.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-38.9 percent)
Soybeans (10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.6 percent)
Cotton (-4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.2 percent)
Cocoa (19.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.5 percent)
Wheat (-26.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-29.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 198,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -71,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	48.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	61.2	13.2
– Net Position:	198,375	-157,536	-40,839
– Gross Longs:	315,270	597,177	121,431
– Gross Shorts:	116,895	754,713	162,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	49.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.5	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 183,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	70.6	5.5
– Net Position:	183,124	-226,066	42,942
– Gross Longs:	282,673	396,317	91,614
– Gross Shorts:	99,549	622,383	48,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-24.7	18.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	54.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	48.4	3.8
– Net Position:	-14,642	12,907	1,735
– Gross Longs:	40,476	111,365	9,524
– Gross Shorts:	55,118	98,458	7,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	28.8	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 89,661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	60.9	12.1
– Net Position:	89,661	-59,882	-29,779
– Gross Longs:	160,518	319,120	45,508
– Gross Shorts:	70,857	379,002	75,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	71.3	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.0	-13.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	47.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	66,311	-78,867	12,556
– Gross Longs:	106,474	204,193	36,717
– Gross Shorts:	40,163	283,060	24,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	17.0	-0.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 122,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	37.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	74.4	7.3
– Net Position:	122,174	-141,761	19,587
– Gross Longs:	140,034	147,251	47,971
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	289,012	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	9.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-0.3	-28.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	32.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	50.6	12.3
– Net Position:	55,263	-52,026	-3,237
– Gross Longs:	108,912	95,851	32,667
– Gross Shorts:	53,649	147,877	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	42.0	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.3	-3.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	35.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.9	12.6
– Net Position:	38,908	-28,396	-10,512
– Gross Longs:	76,849	67,376	13,694
– Gross Shorts:	37,941	95,772	24,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	62.5	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.4	-2.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	47.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	57.8	5.3
– Net Position:	18,720	-20,658	1,938
– Gross Longs:	64,807	92,047	12,243
– Gross Shorts:	46,087	112,705	10,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	78.5	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	3.5	6.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	17,964	-21,713	3,749
– Gross Longs:	83,808	122,383	11,758
– Gross Shorts:	65,844	144,096	8,009
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	66.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-21.1	17.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	40.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	27.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-39,897	42,820	-2,923
– Gross Longs:	95,846	135,857	34,182
– Gross Shorts:	135,743	93,037	37,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.0	21.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Dec

Currency Speculators up their Mexican Peso bets higher for 8th time in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (2,767 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (827 contracts) and the Swiss franc (229 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-4,444 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,544 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-1,844 contracts), the Brazilian real (-1,099 contracts), the Euro (-865 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-770 contracts), the British pound sterling (-642 contracts) and Bitcoin (-382 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Peso bets have now improved by a total of +107,408 contracts over that nine-week period going from a standing of -41,322 contracts on September 27th to +66,086 contracts through Tuesday.

The peso positioning has been helped out by the rising interest rates in Mexico that have reached 10 percent with expectations of another 50 basis point increase in December. Peso prices have also been on the rise higher against the US Dollar recently and are up by over 6 percent (vs USD) since late-September. The peso is also one of the rare currencies to be up overall against the US Dollar in 2022.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	46,836	60	24,892	66	-28,492	31	3,600	56
EUR	695,776	77	122,247	73	-154,585	32	32,338	31
GBP	225,480	52	-36,584	38	49,232	68	-12,648	33
JPY	228,328	67	-67,394	27	82,669	76	-15,275	22
CHF	41,360	25	-14,247	17	19,970	78	-5,723	38
CAD	136,654	21	-16,116	23	13,951	80	2,165	34
AUD	159,378	52	-44,630	43	50,906	57	-6,276	37
NZD	46,180	39	-5,054	48	4,641	52	413	56
MXN	307,733	99	66,086	56	-72,759	42	6,673	71
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	32,057	16	7,637	56	-9,659	44	2,022	85
Bitcoin	16,832	90	324	83	-780	0	456	23

Bitcoin, EuroFX lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (82.6 percent) and the EuroFX (72.5 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores but the Dollar has been losing steam over the past weeks and months.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (65.1 percent)
EuroFX (72.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (37.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (22.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (49.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (56.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (57.2 percent)
Bitcoin (82.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.3 percent)

Strength Trends led by Mexican Peso

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent), the EuroFX (22.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-14.5 percent)
EuroFX (22.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-22.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-17.8 percent)
Bitcoin (5.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	4.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,892	-28,492	3,600
– Gross Longs:	37,279	2,079	6,199
– Gross Shorts:	12,387	30,571	2,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	30.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.5	-7.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 122,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	51.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.5	7.1
– Net Position:	122,247	-154,585	32,338
– Gross Longs:	241,122	356,905	81,867
– Gross Shorts:	118,875	511,490	49,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	32.2	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-23.8	15.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	54.5	15.1
– Net Position:	-36,584	49,232	-12,648
– Gross Longs:	26,000	172,199	21,363
– Gross Shorts:	62,584	122,967	34,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	67.5	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.4	24.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	40.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-67,394	82,669	-15,275
– Gross Longs:	28,125	173,959	22,403
– Gross Shorts:	95,519	91,290	37,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	76.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-13.7	2.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	69.7	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	21.4	39.7
– Net Position:	-14,247	19,970	-5,723
– Gross Longs:	1,488	28,814	10,696
– Gross Shorts:	15,735	8,844	16,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	77.9	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	1.4	21.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	48.5	24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	38.3	22.8
– Net Position:	-16,116	13,951	2,165
– Gross Longs:	35,123	66,304	33,375
– Gross Shorts:	51,239	52,353	31,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	80.4	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-9.3	13.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	65.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	33.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-44,630	50,906	-6,276
– Gross Longs:	35,045	104,506	15,698
– Gross Shorts:	79,675	53,600	21,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	56.9	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	1.4	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	50.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	40.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-5,054	4,641	413
– Gross Longs:	18,855	23,162	3,691
– Gross Shorts:	23,909	18,521	3,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	51.7	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-37.6	49.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	32.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	55.6	0.8
– Net Position:	66,086	-72,759	6,673
– Gross Longs:	199,744	98,322	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	133,658	171,081	2,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	42.5	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-37.1	2.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	36.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.1	5.1
– Net Position:	7,637	-9,659	2,022
– Gross Longs:	16,500	11,541	3,666
– Gross Shorts:	8,863	21,200	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	43.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	19.2	-0.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	0.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.0	5.4	4.6
– Net Position:	324	-780	456
– Gross Longs:	13,783	127	1,236
– Gross Shorts:	13,459	907	780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	26.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.6	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Bloomberg Commodity Index, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 29th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled -3,559 net contracts this week. This market usually has a bearish speculator position and currently it is at the lower end of its range that has averaged a weekly position of -10,636 contracts in 2022.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 30,733 net contracts this week after rising by 3,561 contracts for the week.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 84.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 102,339 net contracts this week and edged up by 1,269 contracts through Tuesday.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of 324 net contracts this week after falling by -382 speculator contracts this week.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 80.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 9,755 net contracts this week and saw an increase of 6,709 contracts through Tuesday.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -33,305 net contracts this week as the position fell by -5,787 contracts this week.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -14,636 net contracts this week. Coffee bets rose by 1,550 contracts this week but had fallen for the previous eight straight weeks.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -529,349 net contracts this week and saw a dip by -5,695 contracts for the week.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s next most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,739 net contracts this week after a decline of -12,736 contracts through Tuesday’s data cutoff.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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