COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 64

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency COT Charts: February 21st data shows Speculator bets led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower through February 21st as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,119 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (2,794 contracts), EuroFX (1,162 contracts), the US Dollar Index (224 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (948 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-6,186 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,009 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,409 contracts), the British Pound (-1,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-215 contracts) and Bitcoin (-29 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	36,022	36	12,198	45	-16,640	49	4,442	65
EUR	789,898	97	165,068	84	-213,818	17	48,750	57
GBP	213,502	45	-21,416	51	37,641	60	-16,225	26
JPY	186,100	41	-34,029	48	46,889	59	-12,860	27
CHF	39,087	33	-6,520	37	12,058	65	-5,538	39
CAD	151,896	32	-37,503	0	39,753	100	-2,250	26
AUD	123,456	25	-24,788	62	25,049	38	-261	52
NZD	29,888	6	8,788	78	-9,024	25	236	54
MXN	277,353	86	-36,873	14	31,458	83	5,415	90
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	47,247	36	30,533	79	-32,115	21	1,582	80
Bitcoin	16,501	87	-812	63	438	0	374	21

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) lead the currency markets through February 21st. The New Zealand Dollar (78 percent), Bitcoin (63 percent) and the Australian Dollar (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (44.9 percent)
EuroFX (84.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (84.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (51.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (37.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (61.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (58.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (77.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (78.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.1 percent)
Bitcoin (62.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.3 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (9 percent) led the past six weeks trends for the currencies through February 21st. The Australian Dollar (8 percent), the Mexican Peso (8 percent) and the British Pound (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) led the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-7 percent), Bitcoin (-4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.7 percent)
EuroFX (10.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (4.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing equaled a net position of 12,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,974 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	2.5	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	48.7	6.6
– Net Position:	12,198	-16,640	4,442
– Gross Longs:	26,469	909	6,832
– Gross Shorts:	14,271	17,549	2,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	49.3	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	4.2	18.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing equaled a net position of 165,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 1,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,906 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	56.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	83.4	5.4
– Net Position:	165,068	-213,818	48,750
– Gross Longs:	236,414	444,658	91,704
– Gross Shorts:	71,346	658,476	42,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	16.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-9.8	2.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing equaled a net position of -21,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,795 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	67.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	49.4	17.1
– Net Position:	-21,416	37,641	-16,225
– Gross Longs:	45,475	143,077	20,231
– Gross Shorts:	66,891	105,436	36,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	59.7	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	1.6	-20.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing totaled a net position of -34,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -6,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,843 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	68.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.9	19.3
– Net Position:	-34,029	46,889	-12,860
– Gross Longs:	32,486	126,777	23,044
– Gross Shorts:	66,515	79,888	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	58.5	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	6.0	-27.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing amounted to a net position of -6,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,468 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	58.0	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	27.1	37.5
– Net Position:	-6,520	12,058	-5,538
– Gross Longs:	7,243	22,668	9,110
– Gross Shorts:	13,763	10,610	14,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	64.9	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	6.4	-15.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing totaled a net position of -37,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,494 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	59.6	23.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	33.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-37,503	39,753	-2,250
– Gross Longs:	21,889	90,489	34,967
– Gross Shorts:	59,392	50,736	37,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	10.2	-11.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing was a net position of -24,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,907 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	49.0	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	28.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-24,788	25,049	-261
– Gross Longs:	38,492	60,543	21,994
– Gross Shorts:	63,280	35,494	22,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	37.6	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-5.3	-4.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing amounted to a net position of 8,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,003 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	30.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	60.2	12.7
– Net Position:	8,788	-9,024	236
– Gross Longs:	15,561	8,965	4,026
– Gross Shorts:	6,773	17,989	3,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.7	25.2	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-1.2	-10.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing equaled a net position of -36,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly advance of 2,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,667 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	41.0	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	29.7	1.2
– Net Position:	-36,873	31,458	5,415
– Gross Longs:	152,675	113,816	8,689
– Gross Shorts:	189,548	82,358	3,274
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	83.0	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-7.9	-4.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing equaled a net position of 30,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,942 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	17.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	85.7	4.6
– Net Position:	30,533	-32,115	1,582
– Gross Longs:	35,137	8,357	3,733
– Gross Shorts:	4,604	40,472	2,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	21.4	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-9.0	-3.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing was a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	4.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	2.3	6.2
– Net Position:	-812	438	374
– Gross Longs:	12,188	810	1,398
– Gross Shorts:	13,000	372	1,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.8	78.5	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	20.8	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 Mar

COT Metals Charts: February 21st data showed Speculator bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower through February 21st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,560 contracts) with Gold (1,572 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-3,093 contracts), Silver (-1,604 contracts) and Palladium (-199 contracts) with also having lower bets through February 21st.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	422,648	0	107,101	21	-129,355	77	22,254	36
Silver	123,906	3	9,902	32	-23,050	66	13,148	39
Copper	219,205	58	2,049	35	-8,510	62	6,461	63
Palladium	11,943	84	-5,188	0	5,552	100	-364	20
Platinum	67,499	58	2,905	22	-8,394	76	5,489	42

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Copper (35 percent) led the metals markets through February 21st. Silver (32 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.0 percent)
Silver (32.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (34.7 percent)
Copper (34.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (28.2 percent)
Platinum (22.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (29.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (-7 percent) led the past six weeks trends for metals through February 21st as all metals were in negative trend territory.

Platinum (-64 percent) led the downside trend scores with Palladium (-30 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.5 percent)
Silver (-27.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-27.7 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-0.7 percent)
Platinum (-64.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-56.6 percent)
Palladium (-30.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-27.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing that week equaled a net position of 107,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,529 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	28.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	58.8	5.1
– Net Position:	107,101	-129,355	22,254
– Gross Longs:	210,185	119,040	43,956
– Gross Shorts:	103,084	248,395	21,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	76.7	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.9	0.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 9,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,506 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	36.6	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	55.2	9.3
– Net Position:	9,902	-23,050	13,148
– Gross Longs:	44,985	45,388	24,663
– Gross Shorts:	35,083	68,438	11,515
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	66.0	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	24.1	-4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 2,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,511 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	42.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.8	6.4
– Net Position:	2,049	-8,510	6,461
– Gross Longs:	73,395	94,047	20,560
– Gross Shorts:	71,346	102,557	14,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	61.6	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	6.1	2.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 2,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -3,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,998 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	38.0	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.4	4.7
– Net Position:	2,905	-8,394	5,489
– Gross Longs:	28,058	25,638	8,655
– Gross Shorts:	25,153	34,032	3,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	76.1	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.2	53.7	24.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of -5,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,989 net contracts.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	21.8	14.5
– Net Position:	-5,188	5,552	-364
– Gross Longs:	1,913	8,159	1,372
– Gross Shorts:	7,101	2,607	1,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.2	32.2	-31.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

11 Mar

Bonds COT Charts: February 21st data shows Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher through February 21st as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (62,275 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (30,404 contracts), the Fed Funds (22,320 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,048 contracts), Eurodollar (24,267 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (3,194 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18,345 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-9,858 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,785,434	0	-1,008,528	35	1,260,816	64	-252,288	49
FedFunds	1,810,074	73	-90,024	29	104,969	73	-14,945	44
2-Year	2,884,053	71	-693,492	0	657,116	100	36,376	68
Long T-Bond	1,307,317	86	-154,816	34	125,285	55	29,531	86
10-Year	4,335,634	88	-500,660	11	590,357	92	-89,697	59
5-Year	4,387,851	84	-599,249	16	631,381	84	-32,132	72

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (35 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (34 percent) led the bond markets through February 21st. The Fed Funds (29 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), 10-Year Bonds (11 percent), Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (16.1 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (34.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
Eurodollar (34.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.1 percent)

Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (3 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds through February 21st. The Eurodollar (1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-30.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-22.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-10.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-0.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -1,008,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly advance of 24,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,032,795 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	67.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	46.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-1,008,528	1,260,816	-252,288
– Gross Longs:	561,343	3,925,149	263,818
– Gross Shorts:	1,569,871	2,664,333	516,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	63.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	0.0	-10.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -90,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 22,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,344 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	75.0	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	69.2	2.9
– Net Position:	-90,024	104,969	-14,945
– Gross Longs:	146,386	1,357,910	36,925
– Gross Shorts:	236,410	1,252,941	51,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	72.6	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.9	5.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -693,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -696,686 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	79.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	56.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-693,492	657,116	36,376
– Gross Longs:	193,928	2,288,617	325,019
– Gross Shorts:	887,420	1,631,501	288,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	100.0	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.3	28.1	14.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -599,249 contracts in the data reported through TuesdayFebruary 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -9,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,391 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	66.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-599,249	631,381	-32,132
– Gross Longs:	331,329	3,534,403	401,556
– Gross Shorts:	930,578	2,903,022	433,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	83.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.0	0.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -500,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 62,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -562,935 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	63.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-500,660	590,357	-89,697
– Gross Longs:	423,167	3,337,222	425,774
– Gross Shorts:	923,827	2,746,865	515,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.1	91.6	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	12.0	-3.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -139,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decline of -18,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121,431 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	74.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	60.9	18.1
– Net Position:	-139,776	216,868	-77,092
– Gross Longs:	152,355	1,175,266	207,505
– Gross Shorts:	292,131	958,398	284,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	6.0	11.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -154,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 30,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,220 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	74.3	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	64.7	13.2
– Net Position:	-154,816	125,285	29,531
– Gross Longs:	86,475	971,509	202,158
– Gross Shorts:	241,291	846,224	172,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	55.3	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.6	1.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -403,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 14,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -417,420 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	81.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	57.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-403,372	363,974	39,398
– Gross Longs:	81,167	1,228,622	180,433
– Gross Shorts:	484,539	864,648	141,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	85.4	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	12.5	5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

11 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: February 21st Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher through February 21st as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (12,163 contracts), Russell-Mini (9,360 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (8,755 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (3,092 contracts), Nikkei 225 (260 contracts) and VIX (89 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The market with the declines in speculator bets was DowJones-Mini (-9,507 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,074,486	4	-234,291	13	241,153	83	-6,862	25
Nikkei 225	12,849	6	-2,022	68	1,824	39	198	31
Nasdaq-Mini	268,297	53	-14,069	67	34,620	48	-20,551	13
DowJones-Mini	91,288	58	-16,245	28	17,594	74	-1,349	34
VIX	333,082	51	-56,108	74	62,408	27	-6,300	61
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,957	25	12,005	71	431	12	-12,436	51

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (74 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (71 percent) led the stock markets through February 21st. The Nikkei 225 (68 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) came in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (74.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (10.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (49.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (67.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (62.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (39.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (67.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.2 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (12 percent) led the six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (9 percent), the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) and the Russell-Mini (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-16 percent) led the downside trend scores with the S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-3.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-14.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-15.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -56,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 89 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,197 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	55.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	36.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-56,108	62,408	-6,300
– Gross Longs:	51,233	184,968	23,405
– Gross Shorts:	107,341	122,560	29,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.7	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-11.6	3.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -234,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 12,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -246,454 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	74.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	62.7	12.5
– Net Position:	-234,291	241,153	-6,862
– Gross Longs:	231,808	1,542,524	251,654
– Gross Shorts:	466,099	1,301,371	258,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	82.5	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	5.2	-3.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -16,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -9,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,738 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	50.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	31.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-16,245	17,594	-1,349
– Gross Longs:	27,344	45,982	13,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,589	28,388	15,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	73.6	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	10.1	11.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -14,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 8,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,824 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	63.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	50.6	20.7
– Net Position:	-14,069	34,620	-20,551
– Gross Longs:	57,849	170,386	34,896
– Gross Shorts:	71,918	135,766	55,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	47.8	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	12.7	-28.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing reached a net position of -54,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 9,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,908 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	81.7	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	70.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-54,548	48,858	5,690
– Gross Longs:	44,927	355,135	25,214
– Gross Shorts:	99,475	306,277	19,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	58.0	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.2	6.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -2,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,282 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	49.0	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	34.8	24.4
– Net Position:	-2,022	1,824	198
– Gross Longs:	3,225	6,296	3,328
– Gross Shorts:	5,247	4,472	3,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	38.8	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-4.5	2.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -14,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 3,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,060 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	88.3	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	86.2	1.5
– Net Position:	-14,968	8,460	6,508
– Gross Longs:	32,258	350,496	12,286
– Gross Shorts:	47,226	342,036	5,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.0	69.2	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.8	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Mar

Soft Commodities COT Charts: February 21st data showed Speculators boosted bets of Cocoa & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher that week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (17,227 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,584 contracts) with Coffee (7,266 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,105 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,600 contracts), Live Cattle (3,446 contracts) and Soybeans (1,374 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Corn (-21,689 contracts) with Wheat (-13,364 contracts), Cotton (-14,119 contracts) and Sugar (-5,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,756,029	32	219,671	4	-241,297	96	21,626	35
Gold	422,648	0	107,101	21	-129,355	77	22,254	36
Silver	123,906	3	9,902	32	-23,050	66	13,148	39
Copper	219,205	58	2,049	35	-8,510	62	6,461	63
Palladium	11,943	84	-5,188	0	5,552	100	-364	20
Platinum	67,499	58	2,905	22	-8,394	76	5,489	42
Natural Gas	1,270,686	63	-179,264	17	141,515	82	37,749	69
Brent	150,907	12	-39,900	33	36,847	65	3,053	51
Heating Oil	259,558	20	17,565	67	-26,091	45	8,526	28
Soybeans	731,529	34	193,260	67	-150,141	45	-43,119	0
Corn	1,340,322	20	283,023	66	-209,635	42	-73,388	6
Coffee	196,128	9	12,316	40	-14,198	62	1,882	26
Sugar	926,553	53	233,338	74	-277,742	23	44,404	63
Wheat	359,360	42	-47,488	1	47,552	97	-64	100

Strength Scores were led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (100 percent) led the softs markets on February 21st. Sugar (74 percent), Cocoa (69 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (1 percent), Cotton (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (10 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Soybean Oil (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (74.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (76.0 percent)
Coffee (40.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (32.6 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.1 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (10.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.0 percent)
Cotton (5.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.8 percent)
Cocoa (69.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.4 percent)
Wheat (0.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.9 percent)

Coffee & Live Cattle topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (28 percent) and Live Cattle (28 percent) led the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (21 percent), Soybeans (20 percent) and Sugar (16 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent) led the downside trend scores that week with Soybean Oil (-18 percent), Cotton (-16 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (15.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.6 percent)
Coffee (27.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.0 percent)
Soybeans (19.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (27.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-25.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-53.0 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.1 percent)
Cocoa (20.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.1 percent)
Wheat (-8.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing equaled a net position of 283,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -21,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,712 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	57.5	14.0
– Net Position:	283,023	-209,635	-73,388
– Gross Longs:	414,502	561,129	114,376
– Gross Shorts:	131,479	770,764	187,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	42.0	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-3.8	-16.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing equaled a net position of 233,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,826 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	39.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	69.5	5.6
– Net Position:	233,338	-277,742	44,404
– Gross Longs:	317,876	366,001	95,884
– Gross Shorts:	84,538	643,743	51,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	23.5	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-13.0	-0.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 12,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 7,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,050 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	46.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	53.5	4.1
– Net Position:	12,316	-14,198	1,882
– Gross Longs:	44,122	90,640	10,018
– Gross Shorts:	31,806	104,838	8,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	61.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-25.4	-21.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 193,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,886 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	65.7	12.4
– Net Position:	193,260	-150,141	-43,119
– Gross Longs:	239,615	330,719	47,851
– Gross Shorts:	46,355	480,860	90,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	44.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-15.9	-11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 36,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,177 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	52.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	63.1	5.2
– Net Position:	36,282	-46,887	10,605
– Gross Longs:	86,110	240,461	34,271
– Gross Shorts:	49,828	287,348	23,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	70.7	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.4	5.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 175,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 3,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,351 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	33.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	75.6	7.0
– Net Position:	175,951	-191,708	15,757
– Gross Longs:	190,333	154,817	48,064
– Gross Shorts:	14,382	346,525	32,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-6.0	-36.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 104,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,828 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	23.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	51.6	13.1
– Net Position:	104,274	-95,188	-9,086
– Gross Longs:	151,310	78,368	35,012
– Gross Shorts:	47,036	173,556	44,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-26.0	-11.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,880 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	35.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	33.8	12.9
– Net Position:	1,704	2,763	-4,467
– Gross Longs:	65,678	74,070	22,814
– Gross Shorts:	63,974	71,307	27,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.2	94.8	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	25.6	10.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -2,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -14,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,150 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	51.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	49.9	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,969	2,542	427
– Gross Longs:	51,460	94,938	12,306
– Gross Shorts:	54,429	92,396	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	94.7	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.7	-10.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 46,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 17,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,858 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	39.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	57.4	3.0
– Net Position:	46,085	-51,594	5,509
– Gross Longs:	105,772	117,967	14,353
– Gross Shorts:	59,687	169,561	8,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	27.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-23.2	15.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -47,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -13,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,124 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	39.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	25.8	10.3
– Net Position:	-47,488	47,552	-64
– Gross Longs:	92,453	140,224	36,892
– Gross Shorts:	139,941	92,672	36,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	96.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.7	17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Feb

COT Currencies: January 31st data shows Speculators raised Euro & New Zealand Dollar bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher through January 31st as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (16,160 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (6,212 contracts), Canadian Dollar (528 contracts), British Pound (5,617 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,470 contracts), Australian Dollar (2,579 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,194 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,374 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,575 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets for that week were the Brazilian Real (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-362 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	38,140	41	16,537	53	-19,776	44	3,239	52
EUR	796,738	100	150,509	81	-203,589	18	53,080	64
GBP	196,113	35	-18,317	53	28,668	54	-10,351	38
JPY	168,540	31	-20,060	57	18,179	45	1,881	57
CHF	38,345	30	-8,314	33	11,816	64	-3,502	46
CAD	140,167	24	-30,184	6	27,637	92	2,547	35
AUD	136,304	34	-30,592	56	23,162	36	7,430	71
NZD	34,587	17	8,386	77	-8,813	26	427	57
MXN	285,481	90	-45,270	9	40,804	89	4,466	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,096	70	21,597	69	-22,343	32	746	70
Bitcoin	17,542	94	-1,799	46	920	0	879	33

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (77 percent) led the currency markets that week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Japanese Yen (57 percent) and the Australian Dollar (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Swiss Franc (33 percent) and Bitcoin (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (50.2 percent)
EuroFX (81.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (53.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (56.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (55.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (54.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (76.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (60.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (70.3 percent)
Bitcoin (45.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.9 percent)

Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Mexican Peso (4 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-37 percent) led the downside trend scores with the Swiss Franc (-11 percent), British Pound (-11 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 16,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	2.7	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	54.6	8.0
– Net Position:	16,537	-19,776	3,239
– Gross Longs:	29,221	1,042	6,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,684	20,818	3,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	44.4	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.7	-2.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 150,509 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 16,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	80.9	5.3
– Net Position:	150,509	-203,589	53,080
– Gross Longs:	246,755	440,756	95,671
– Gross Shorts:	96,246	644,345	42,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	18.3	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-5.0	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -18,317 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 5,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	66.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	51.9	17.7
– Net Position:	-18,317	28,668	-10,351
– Gross Longs:	36,234	130,370	24,459
– Gross Shorts:	54,551	101,702	34,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	53.6	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.9	-6.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -20,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	67.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	57.1	17.3
– Net Position:	-20,060	18,179	1,881
– Gross Longs:	22,550	114,423	31,108
– Gross Shorts:	42,610	96,244	29,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	44.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.4	13.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -8,314 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 1,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	55.1	30.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	24.2	39.3
– Net Position:	-8,314	11,816	-3,502
– Gross Longs:	5,664	21,109	11,549
– Gross Shorts:	13,978	9,293	15,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	64.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.0	-8.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,184 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.1	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	35.4	22.0
– Net Position:	-30,184	27,637	2,547
– Gross Longs:	26,404	77,299	33,382
– Gross Shorts:	56,588	49,662	30,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	91.8	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	-2.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,592 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly gain of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	53.4	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	36.4	12.6
– Net Position:	-30,592	23,162	7,430
– Gross Longs:	36,337	72,741	24,573
– Gross Shorts:	66,929	49,579	17,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	36.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.4	28.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 8,386 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 6,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	39.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	65.3	12.3
– Net Position:	8,386	-8,813	427
– Gross Longs:	15,376	13,762	4,674
– Gross Shorts:	6,990	22,575	4,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	25.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-2.5	-11.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -45,270 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 3,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	41.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.8	27.6	1.2
– Net Position:	-45,270	40,804	4,466
– Gross Longs:	156,950	119,480	7,841
– Gross Shorts:	202,220	78,676	3,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	-6.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 21,597 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	39.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	70.5	4.2
– Net Position:	21,597	-22,343	746
– Gross Longs:	39,609	28,490	3,776
– Gross Shorts:	18,012	50,833	3,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	31.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.5	-8.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -1,799 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	7.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	2.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,799	920	879
– Gross Longs:	13,599	1,293	1,635
– Gross Shorts:	15,398	373	756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	100.0	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	76.3	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Feb

COT Metals Update: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC’s up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date soon.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower on January 31st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,608 contracts) with Silver (1,632 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,124 contracts), Copper (-2,955 contracts) and Palladium (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (50 percent) led the metals markets for that week. Silver (44 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) came in at the lowest strength level and was in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.0 percent)
Silver (44.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.4 percent)
Copper (50.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.4 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for metals. Gold (10 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-17 percent) led the downside trend scores with Platinum (-12 percent) and Silver (-2.7 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.6 percent)
Silver (-2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.2 percent)
Copper (13.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-17.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 160,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly increase of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	25.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	63.7	5.0
– Net Position:	160,281	-180,520	20,239
– Gross Longs:	256,417	120,147	43,984
– Gross Shorts:	96,136	300,667	23,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.4	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-11.7	16.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 27,316 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	34.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	64.0	8.4
– Net Position:	27,316	-40,434	13,118
– Gross Longs:	54,867	47,997	24,665
– Gross Shorts:	27,551	88,431	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	57.0	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.1	13.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 17,215 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	36.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	47.2	5.6
– Net Position:	17,215	-24,414	7,199
– Gross Longs:	85,410	81,694	19,764
– Gross Shorts:	68,195	106,108	12,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	48.1	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-16.2	25.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 16,137 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -4,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	33.0	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.1	3.6
– Net Position:	16,137	-22,213	6,076
– Gross Longs:	35,098	22,808	8,577
– Gross Shorts:	18,961	45,021	2,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.0	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -4,271 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	63.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	22.2	14.2
– Net Position:	-4,271	4,632	-361
– Gross Longs:	1,792	7,131	1,238
– Gross Shorts:	6,063	2,499	1,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	19.5	-19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

25 Feb

COT Bonds: January 31st data shows Speculators cut back on their bond bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were sharply lower for that week as just one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds with a gain of 15,702 contracts.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-100,142 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-94,219 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17,997 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7,222 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (-3,260 contracts), the Eurodollar (-12,402 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-13,650 contracts) also registering lower bets through January 31st.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,879,918	0	-1,026,275	34	1,226,679	63	-200,404	60
FedFunds	1,889,652	79	-20,128	37	50,487	66	-30,359	0
2-Year	2,428,703	29	-577,165	1	552,882	94	24,283	63
Long T-Bond	1,226,430	48	-199,076	20	172,835	72	26,241	73
10-Year	4,151,853	75	-555,471	0	623,943	96	-68,472	64
5-Year	4,177,919	61	-732,956	0	722,945	94	10,011	84

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the Eurodollar (34 percent) led the bond markets for that week. The US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent), 2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) came in with the lowest strength levels and all were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (37.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
Eurodollar (34.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.5 percent)

Fed Funds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (8 percent) and the Eurodollar (2 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-32 percent) led the downside trend scores with the 10-Year Bonds (-32 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-10.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-32.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-31.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
Eurodollar (1.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (11.1 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -1,026,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -12,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,013,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	68.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,026,275	1,226,679	-200,404
– Gross Longs:	480,357	4,023,635	289,015
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,632	2,796,956	489,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	63.1	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.8	3.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -20,128 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 15,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	75.9	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	73.3	3.4
– Net Position:	-20,128	50,487	-30,359
– Gross Longs:	185,358	1,435,042	34,298
– Gross Shorts:	205,486	1,384,555	64,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	66.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-5.1	-55.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -577,165 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -100,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -477,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	83.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-577,165	552,882	24,283
– Gross Longs:	163,860	2,027,636	198,658
– Gross Shorts:	741,025	1,474,754	174,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	94.3	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	6.6	12.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -732,956 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -94,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -638,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	84.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-732,956	722,945	10,011
– Gross Longs:	224,985	3,538,717	340,298
– Gross Shorts:	957,941	2,815,772	330,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.2	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	0.6	17.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -555,471 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -13,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -541,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	79.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-555,471	623,943	-68,472
– Gross Longs:	367,733	3,313,634	349,227
– Gross Shorts:	923,204	2,689,691	417,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.4	23.7	9.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -133,133 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -7,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.4	17.3
– Net Position:	-133,133	233,431	-100,298
– Gross Longs:	148,741	1,144,072	152,412
– Gross Shorts:	281,874	910,641	252,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	9.8	-9.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -199,076 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	80.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	66.2	11.9
– Net Position:	-199,076	172,835	26,241
– Gross Longs:	58,575	984,869	172,662
– Gross Shorts:	257,651	812,034	146,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	72.2	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	23.6	-6.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -433,360 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -17,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -415,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	85.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	58.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-433,360	393,878	39,482
– Gross Longs:	48,954	1,234,463	162,321
– Gross Shorts:	482,314	840,585	122,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	39.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

25 Feb

COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,726,378	29	243,820	10	-266,622	89	22,802	37
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49
Natural Gas	1,146,709	38	-169,214	24	134,013	76	35,201	63
Brent	156,929	16	-43,407	26	39,572	70	3,835	61
Heating Oil	265,444	22	21,747	74	-45,428	23	23,681	80
Soybeans	689,806	25	178,398	67	-137,153	46	-41,245	1
Corn	1,298,164	14	296,812	68	-225,622	40	-71,190	2
Coffee	221,894	29	-1,881	25	-926	75	2,807	39
Sugar	995,391	55	247,072	79	-292,448	19	45,376	64
Wheat	350,871	29	-40,060	7	41,564	90	-1,504	100

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	42.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	59.4	14.4
– Net Position:	296,812	-225,622	-71,190
– Gross Longs:	407,766	545,068	115,712
– Gross Shorts:	110,954	770,690	186,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	39.8	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.5	-20.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	68.5	5.7
– Net Position:	247,072	-292,448	45,376
– Gross Longs:	333,718	389,834	102,320
– Gross Shorts:	86,646	682,282	56,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.3	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-2.7	-5.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	46.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	46.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,881	-926	2,807
– Gross Longs:	45,937	102,565	10,630
– Gross Shorts:	47,818	103,491	7,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	75.0	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-4.7	31.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	46.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	66.7	12.6
– Net Position:	178,398	-137,153	-41,245
– Gross Longs:	222,823	323,166	45,644
– Gross Shorts:	44,425	460,319	86,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	46.3	1.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-14.8	-14.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.5	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	61.2	7.0
– Net Position:	31,371	-36,797	5,426
– Gross Longs:	77,553	223,986	35,438
– Gross Shorts:	46,182	260,783	30,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.0	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	24.7	-22.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	33.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	73.9	7.3
– Net Position:	157,830	-173,741	15,911
– Gross Longs:	174,746	141,045	47,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,916	314,786	31,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.0	5.7	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-5.3	-31.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	28.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	51.5	12.4
– Net Position:	77,223	-72,958	-4,265
– Gross Longs:	126,874	88,274	34,568
– Gross Shorts:	49,651	161,232	38,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	13.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.0	-27.2	-5.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	35.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-3,594	3,412	182
– Gross Longs:	67,149	78,668	25,530
– Gross Shorts:	70,743	75,256	25,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.9	31.6	60.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	47.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	57.3	5.4
– Net Position:	16,905	-20,488	3,583
– Gross Longs:	61,398	100,108	14,890
– Gross Shorts:	44,493	120,596	11,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	78.7	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.2	7.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	47.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	56.6	3.2
– Net Position:	25,159	-27,818	2,659
– Gross Longs:	93,440	142,793	12,252
– Gross Shorts:	68,281	170,611	9,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	59.9	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-5.9	-14.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	38.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	26.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-40,060	41,564	-1,504
– Gross Longs:	89,996	134,236	35,913
– Gross Shorts:	130,056	92,672	37,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	90.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	0.5	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Feb

COT Stocks: January 31st data shows Nasdaq-Mini and Russell-Mini led Speculator bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were mixed as four out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (9,403 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,377 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (2,632 contracts) and DowJones-Mini (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets for the week were the S&P500-Mini (-13,266 contracts) and VIX (-13,769 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-638 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-360 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,061,419	4	-222,257	15	234,786	82	-12,529	24
Nikkei 225	14,330	10	-5,072	53	5,452	57	-380	24
Nasdaq-Mini	278,449	59	-15,858	66	32,053	46	-16,195	21
DowJones-Mini	80,386	43	-9,428	33	12,077	71	-2,649	27
VIX	310,475	42	-66,918	66	69,707	32	-2,789	78
Nikkei 225 Yen	36,496	13	9,112	62	-4,201	0	-4,911	70

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) led the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (33.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (1.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)

VIX led the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that just about all the markets had lower trend scores. The VIX was the only market with a score above 0 at a 0.2 percent trend score. The EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) had the lowest or most negative score that week followed by the S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-10.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-23.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -66,918 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly lowering of -13,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	35.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-66,918	69,707	-2,789
– Gross Longs:	52,935	178,998	24,430
– Gross Shorts:	119,853	109,291	27,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	31.5	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-6.5	46.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -222,257 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -13,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-222,257	234,786	-12,529
– Gross Longs:	253,439	1,519,069	245,628
– Gross Shorts:	475,696	1,284,283	258,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	81.6	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.0	-2.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -9,428 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	52.1	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	37.1	20.1
– Net Position:	-9,428	12,077	-2,649
– Gross Longs:	21,339	41,874	13,546
– Gross Shorts:	30,767	29,797	16,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	71.1	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.7	6.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -15,858 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 9,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	65.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	54.2	16.9
– Net Position:	-15,858	32,053	-16,195
– Gross Longs:	59,439	183,098	30,935
– Gross Shorts:	75,297	151,045	47,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	46.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	20.5	-24.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -63,024 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	82.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	69.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-63,024	57,143	5,881
– Gross Longs:	42,702	356,143	25,493
– Gross Shorts:	105,726	299,000	19,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	62.7	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	0.1	12.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	65.9	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	27.8	20.9
– Net Position:	-5,072	5,452	-380
– Gross Longs:	2,269	9,440	2,621
– Gross Shorts:	7,341	3,988	3,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	57.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	20.2	-24.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -34,840 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	87.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-34,840	20,734	14,106
– Gross Longs:	24,465	327,871	18,967
– Gross Shorts:	59,305	307,137	4,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	84.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.5	27.9	38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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