Archive for COT Updates

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

14 Jun

Large Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,144 contracts) and with the Bitcoin (560 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-34,934 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-25,888 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-23,652 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-16,251 contracts), the British Pound (-11,995 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,756 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,325 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,134 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-2,374 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

Highlighting the major Currencies market futures positioning this week was the Mexican peso, which was the highest weekly gainer. The Mexican peso position rose by over 9,000 weekly contracts this week and is currently the most bullish of the Currencies right now according to net speculator position. The overall position is now at a standing of 63,801 net contracts and the peso position has been overall in a bullish level for 72 consecutive weeks. Recently, the Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to a new level of 6.50% with analysts speculating that this could end the easing cycle which began over a year ago and the next path for interest rates is uncertain. In the Forex markets, the Mexican peso has been on a strong uptrend since February 2025 with the MXN is up by over 22% since the lowest levels of 2025 against the US dollar.

Next up, the Euro speculator position dropped by over -34,000 contracts this week, marking the most bearish weekly change in the past 12 weeks. Overall, the euro speculator position has now fallen for three out of the past four weeks and has fallen to the lowest standing since April. The current level of net speculator positions is at 13,932 contracts and is essentially a neutral-to-small bullish level in the big scheme of things. The European Central Bank, this week (on Thursday June 11th), increased their interest rate by 25 basis points to a total level of 2.25% and marked the first rate increase in almost three years. Despite the weakness in speculative bets for the week, the euro price in the Forex markets continues to trade in a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1950, with this week’s close for the euro against the US dollar at 1.1617.

The Canadian dollar speculator position dropped sharply and has now fallen for five consecutive weeks. The Canadian dollar positioning has now fallen by -105,340 net contracts in just the past five weeks and is now at a net position standing of -119,999 contracts. This marks the lowest or most bearish level for the Canadian dollar contracts since December 9th, a span of 26 weeks. The Bank of Canada this week held its interest rate steady at 2.25%, with uncertainty which way policy could go in the near future as inflation due to the Iran war is an issue. In the Forex markets, the Canadian dollar against the US dollar saw a slight uptick this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks that saw prices drop to the downside out of its previous ascending triangle pattern. The Canadian dollar was helped out and bounced off of resistance at the 0.7150 level, which is where support lies currently and could mark a level of down-trending action if this level is broken.

The US Dollar Index saw weekly speculator bets decline by over -2,000 contracts this week following two weeks of gains. The current US Dollar Index positioning is very much in a neutral-to-small-bullish level with an overall net speculator standing of just 1,384 contracts. The DX speculator positioning has been in this small bullish situation now for 13 consecutive weeks with only 1 small dip into a small bearish position in that time-frame. Before that, the DX positioning had been in an overall bearish level for 38 out of the previous 39 weeks through March 10th. The US Dollar Index price this week tested the upper range of its sideways channel that the currency has been in for quite some time. This channel has a low level of 96.50 with an upper resistance level of 100.00. This week, the US Dollar Index price tested the 100.00 level and was rejected lower with a close at 99.49. A breakout above 100 could see a play towards 102.50 in the near future.

Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso lead Currency market price performances

The leading gains for the major Currency markets this week saw the Brazilian Real up by 2.38% over the past five days. The Mexican Peso was next with a gain over 1% with a 1.25% rise.

The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.64%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.50%. Next up, the Euro was higher by 0.41%, while Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.32%. The Australian Dollar was virtually unchanged with an uptick of 0.09%, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged higher by 0.05%, and the Swiss Franc, which saw an uptick by 0.03%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.32%. The US Dollar Index was the biggest decliner on the week with a -0.49% decline.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (11 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.3 percent)
EuroFX (35.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (65.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (77.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (39.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (74.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.8 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-28 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.3 percent)
EuroFX (-8.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-27.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-1.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.5 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,758 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.532.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.739.23.7
– Net Position:1,384-3,5992,215
– Gross Longs:27,90816,0924,059
– Gross Shorts:26,52419,6911,844
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.946.896.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.44.928.6

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,866 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.258.710.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.663.07.6
– Net Position:13,932-38,08524,153
– Gross Longs:219,564511,35990,399
– Gross Shorts:205,632549,44466,246
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.068.025.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.512.7-32.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,218 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.774.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.748.812.3
– Net Position:-64,21375,870-11,657
– Gross Longs:45,743218,02524,172
– Gross Shorts:109,956142,15535,829
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.389.823.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.54.6-21.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -145,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,567 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.162.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.933.98.5
– Net Position:-145,818142,3693,449
– Gross Longs:121,520313,35146,489
– Gross Shorts:267,338170,98243,040
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.686.842.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.010.91.8

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,909 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.482.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.138.921.2
– Net Position:-36,66549,741-13,076
– Gross Longs:7,33594,61211,370
– Gross Shorts:44,00044,87124,446
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.380.623.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.111.4-23.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -119,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -25,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,111 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.978.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.244.810.5
– Net Position:-119,999128,812-8,813
– Gross Longs:37,944300,85631,377
– Gross Shorts:157,943172,04440,190
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.869.820.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.136.9-28.3

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,812 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.654.912.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.866.66.4
– Net Position:18,160-36,66918,509
– Gross Longs:92,995172,45138,751
– Gross Shorts:74,835209,12020,242
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.132.879.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.826.5-14.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,246 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.983.41.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.060.24.0
– Net Position:-31,57134,705-3,134
– Gross Longs:11,764124,4822,830
– Gross Shorts:43,33589,7775,964
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.873.19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-14.4-25.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 9,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,657 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.945.33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.077.31.7
– Net Position:63,801-68,3514,550
– Gross Longs:100,19996,9598,190
– Gross Shorts:36,398165,3103,640
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.351.860.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.83.0-2.3

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,980 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.022.24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.964.01.2
– Net Position:43,846-46,9463,100
– Gross Longs:81,81424,8454,463
– Gross Shorts:37,96871,7911,363
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.3 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.827.738.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.92.7-7.1

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,458 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:86.90.55.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.615.25.7
– Net Position:3,018-2,906-112
– Gross Longs:17,1781061,009
– Gross Shorts:14,1603,0121,121
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.031.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-11.8-2.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
14 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Copper & Steel lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday June 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a boost of 11 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 3,018 net contracts this week with an advance of 560 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

The Bitcoin speculator positioning is often seen as a hedging position as many times when Bitcoin drops speculator bets go up and vice versa.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Copper

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Copper speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise higher by 10 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 74,450 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,383 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the Steel speculator level residing at an 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decrease of -2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,707 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,107 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Cotton speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 84 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -3 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 75,957 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,249 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Soybean Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybean Oil speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -20 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 121,954 net contracts this week with a fall of -26,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Lean Hogs

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -40 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -42,121 net contracts this week with a decrease of -5,067 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next and tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level is at 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week while the speculator position was -23,497 net contracts this week with a retreat of -6,185 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in also tied as most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -54 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -2,534,063 net contracts this week with a reduction of -385,462 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Natural Gas speculator level is at an 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -18 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -193,957 net contracts this week with a drop of -7,842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Extreme Bearish Leader
Next, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -145,818 net contracts this week with a decline of -16,251 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions
14 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a modest rise by 1,107 weekly contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-4,383 contracts), Platinum (-2,200 contracts), Gold (-2,183 contracts), Silver (-1,712 contracts) and with Palladium (-958 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium and Copper lead Metals markets price changes

Leading the Metals markets this week in price performance was Palladium, which saw a rise by 4.57%. Copper came in next with a 3.18% gain. Steel rose by 0.64%, and Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.37% rise.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.39%, and Platinum showed the biggest decline on the week with a -2.77% drop.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (96 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.9 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (96.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (48.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.1 percent)
Palladium (72.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.7 percent)
Steel (87.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (81.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.9 percent)
Silver (-3.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.3 percent)
Copper (10.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,020 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.517.712.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.378.24.7
– Net Position:173,837-201,03627,199
– Gross Longs:207,98458,98642,891
– Gross Shorts:34,147260,02215,692
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.2 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.055.645.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-2.5-23.5

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,926 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.425.826.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.964.89.2
– Net Position:22,214-40,36818,154
– Gross Longs:32,48726,66027,673
– Gross Shorts:10,27367,0289,519
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.272.752.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.30.110.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,833 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.431.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.262.03.9
– Net Position:74,450-83,9359,485
– Gross Longs:108,03586,21120,089
– Gross Shorts:33,585170,14610,604
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.14.063.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-10.03.8

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -2,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,212 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.732.714.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.765.75.7
– Net Position:15,012-20,5525,540
– Gross Longs:24,82620,4529,080
– Gross Shorts:9,81441,0043,540
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.653.562.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.96.810.2

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,006 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.139.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.026.89.9
– Net Position:-2,9642,236728
– Gross Longs:7,5166,9092,449
– Gross Shorts:10,4804,6731,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.331.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.910.5-7.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,600 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.662.91.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.592.10.2
– Net Position:11,707-12,126419
– Gross Longs:13,55726,118511
– Gross Shorts:1,85038,24492
– Long to Short Ratio:7.3 to 10.7 to 15.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.112.973.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.71.29.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
14 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro 

Bonds Market Open Interest Comparison
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Net Speculators Positions
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (130,350 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (65,983 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (49,056 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-385,462 contracts), the Fed Funds (-44,731 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-34,232 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-31,021 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-21,633 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-3,452 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Bond market price gains

The biggest price performance mover this week was the long US Treasury Bond, which rose by almost 1% with a 0.93% increase. Next up, the 10-Year Note was a little higher with a 0.59% rise, followed by the Five-Year Bond, which was up by 0.44%. The Two-Year Bond managed to rise by 0.20%, while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged on the week.

The 3-Month SOFR was unchanged for the past five days, while the 1-Month SOFR dipped ever so slightly at a -0.01%.

Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Strength Index Comparison
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 2-Year Bonds (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the Fed Funds (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (37.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (79.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (76.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (33.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (76.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (59.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (51.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (45.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (11.7 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Bonds Market Trend Index Comparison
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (58 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-53.9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (58.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-23.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-26.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-25.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-20.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-53.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -177,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -44,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,324 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.467.51.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.358.01.7
– Net Position:-177,055171,9605,095
– Gross Longs:151,8681,215,56834,988
– Gross Shorts:328,9231,043,60829,893
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.869.356.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.5-17.3

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,534,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -385,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,148,601 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.166.50.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.548.10.3
– Net Position:-2,534,0632,533,569494
– Gross Longs:1,528,8359,161,02844,086
– Gross Shorts:4,062,8986,627,45943,592
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.058.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-53.954.0-0.0

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,406 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.163.00.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.149.00.4
– Net Position:-208,039207,97465
– Gross Longs:269,395936,9396,548
– Gross Shorts:477,434728,9656,483
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.458.567.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.825.70.2

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,219,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 130,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,350,188 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.079.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.551.93.6
– Net Position:-1,219,8381,156,27663,562
– Gross Longs:511,3283,376,977216,772
– Gross Shorts:1,731,1662,220,701153,210
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.242.215.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.1-53.8-10.3

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,320,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 49,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,369,218 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.683.66.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.962.36.5
– Net Position:-1,320,1621,317,0803,082
– Gross Longs:469,2685,169,671404,940
– Gross Shorts:1,789,4303,852,591401,858
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.026.812.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.7-7.5-28.6

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -863,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -34,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -829,575 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.180.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.663.97.3
– Net Position:-863,807864,695-888
– Gross Longs:533,0004,222,625384,645
– Gross Shorts:1,396,8073,357,930385,533
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.582.37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.016.4-29.1

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -117,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 65,983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,090 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.781.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.571.812.5
– Net Position:-117,107229,011-111,904
– Gross Longs:234,4041,972,879192,813
– Gross Shorts:351,5111,743,868304,717
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.535.619.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.519.612.6

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,853 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.475.512.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.171.97.2
– Net Position:-163,30567,84495,461
– Gross Longs:214,1121,420,514230,427
– Gross Shorts:377,4171,352,670134,966
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.663.547.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.314.3-4.4

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -31,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -287,710 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.685.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.971.97.6
– Net Position:-318,731320,235-1,504
– Gross Longs:133,8852,046,697181,460
– Gross Shorts:452,6161,726,462182,964
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.664.713.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.212.3-8.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
14 Jun

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Energy Futures COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with an increase by 9,488 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-25,573 contracts), Gasoline (-8,579 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,842 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-5,608 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-2,267 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy markets were lower across the board

For the Energy markets this week, they were all lower across the board with Natural Gas seeing the least decline on the week with a -1.29% shortfall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by -2.42%, while Gasoline was lower by -2.54%.

Heating Oil was lower by -9.23%, followed by WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -9.73%.

Brent Oil was the biggest decliner on the week with a -9.76% decrease.

Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brent Oil

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Brent Oil (68.5 percent) leads the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (8.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (29.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (29.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (37.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (55.0 percent)
Natural Gas (8.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.0 percent)
Gasoline (39.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (48.6 percent)
Heating Oil (45.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (5.4 percent)

 

Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (23.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude (-19.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-19.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (23.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (7.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.4 percent)
Gasoline (-10.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-5.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 130,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -25,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,874 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.045.84.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.554.32.4
– Net Position:130,301-170,72640,425
– Gross Longs:360,524919,78689,544
– Gross Shorts:230,2231,090,51249,119
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.264.680.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.915.025.0

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,371 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.331.95.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.930.92.7
– Net Position:-8,8832,4626,421
– Gross Longs:56,15180,16013,212
– Gross Shorts:65,03477,6986,791
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.522.996.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-32.344.8

 

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -193,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,115 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.735.83.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.625.12.3
– Net Position:-193,957175,73818,219
– Gross Longs:240,948586,19556,264
– Gross Shorts:434,905410,45738,045
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.090.849.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.815.87.5

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,622 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.547.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.566.24.6
– Net Position:47,043-58,97311,930
– Gross Longs:80,104149,26626,345
– Gross Shorts:33,061208,23914,415
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.152.971.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.19.9-3.4

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,091 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.744.119.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.054.49.9
– Net Position:1,824-26,34124,517
– Gross Longs:40,044112,29849,677
– Gross Shorts:38,220138,63925,160
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.841.585.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.43.6-5.4

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -80,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,282 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.656.70.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.224.20.0
– Net Position:-80,89080,412478
– Gross Longs:102,893140,412536
– Gross Shorts:183,78360,00058
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.3 to 19.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.063.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.65.6-5.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
14 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar with a small increase by 2,105 weekly contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-96,383 contracts), Soybean Meal (-70,583 contracts), Soybeans (-37,321 contracts), Soybean Oil (-26,485 contracts),  Wheat (-17,091 contracts), Cotton (-9,249 contracts), Coffee (-7,212 contracts), Cocoa (-6,185 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,067 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,036 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa and Coffee lead Soft Commodities price performance

Leading the Soft Commodities price gains this week was Cocoa, which rose by almost 4% with a 3.79% gain. Coffee came in second with a 2.90% rise on the week. Wheat was also up by over 2% with a 2.26% increase.

On the downside, Live Cattle was virtually unchanged with a -0.14% dip. Cotton was lower by -0.50%, Soybeans fell by -0.62%, followed by Corn, which declined by -0.96%. Lean Hogs was next with a -1.37% decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which dropped over 2% by -2.08%.

Soybean Oil was down by -2.41%. And Sugar was the biggest decliner with a -2.97% drop.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Soybean Oil

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (77 percent), Soybean Meal (70 percent) and Live Cattle (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (29 percent) and the Coffee (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.4 percent)
Sugar (28.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.5 percent)
Coffee (29.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.6 percent)
Soybeans (77.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (79.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (90.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (69.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.6 percent)
Live Cattle (59.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.5 percent)
Cotton (84.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (89.8 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (8 percent) and Cocoa (0.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Wheat (-49 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-40 percent), Corn (-32 percent) and Soybean Meal (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-32.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.7 percent)
Sugar (7.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (-18.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-9.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-40.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-42.1 percent)
Cotton (-3.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.6 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.9 percent)
Wheat (-49.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -96,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,942 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.044.47.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.647.210.0
– Net Position:103,559-53,122-50,437
– Gross Longs:477,576848,686141,418
– Gross Shorts:374,017901,808191,855
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.349.162.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.334.76.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,163 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.350.98.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.740.38.3
– Net Position:-105,058106,415-1,357
– Gross Longs:225,149513,54982,833
– Gross Shorts:330,207407,13484,190
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.972.430.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.6-5.0-12.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,388 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.141.44.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.244.14.3
– Net Position:6,176-5,785-391
– Gross Longs:51,44088,4528,747
– Gross Shorts:45,26494,2379,138
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.472.68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.918.7-6.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 150,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -37,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,784 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.348.84.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.560.87.3
– Net Position:150,463-122,120-28,343
– Gross Longs:267,406495,97945,342
– Gross Shorts:116,943618,09973,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.024.724.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.1-1.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 121,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -26,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,439 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.145.95.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.465.54.0
– Net Position:121,954-135,10213,148
– Gross Longs:186,964316,76340,539
– Gross Shorts:65,010451,86527,391
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.918.683.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.118.69.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 85,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -70,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,187 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.948.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.966.64.5
– Net Position:85,604-109,77024,166
– Gross Longs:164,267297,19751,481
– Gross Shorts:78,663406,96727,315
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.929.878.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.320.439.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,522 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.231.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.253.812.1
– Net Position:82,486-71,638-10,848
– Gross Longs:137,03199,06427,433
– Gross Shorts:54,545170,70238,281
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.233.260.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.510.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,054 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.841.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.328.47.9
– Net Position:-42,12141,690431
– Gross Longs:71,117130,27425,107
– Gross Shorts:113,23888,58424,676
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.092.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.138.930.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -9,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,206 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.937.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.562.62.9
– Net Position:75,957-81,9175,960
– Gross Longs:126,353121,66115,510
– Gross Shorts:50,396203,5789,550
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.319.050.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.06.0-34.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,312 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.453.65.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.941.65.8
– Net Position:-23,49724,426-929
– Gross Longs:39,354108,96510,789
– Gross Shorts:62,85184,53911,718
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.1100.018.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.9-22.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -57,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,762 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.540.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.228.27.6
– Net Position:-57,85356,1921,661
– Gross Longs:115,711184,41036,405
– Gross Shorts:173,564128,21834,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.651.362.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-49.451.3-2.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
31 May

New Zealand Dollar Speculators raise Bets as NZD rises on possible higher interest rates

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & British Pound

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the New Zealand Dollar (6,434 contracts) with the British Pound (2,909 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,797 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,329 contracts), Brazilian Real (639 contracts) and the Bitcoin (170 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-37,651 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-25,489 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-20,762 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,095 contracts) and the EuroFX (-4,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

New Zealand Dollar Speculators raise Bets as NZD rises on possible higher interest rates

Leading the Currencies market speculator positioning this week was the New Zealand Dollar. The NZD saw speculator bets go higher by almost 6,500 contracts this week and has now improved in two out of the past three weeks. Helping out the New Zealand Dollar contracts – as well as the NZD market price this week – was speculation out of the New Zealand Central Bank that future interest rates would likely be on the rise due to higher inflation risks. This helped move the NZD market price this week go higher by 2% against the US Dollar in the foreign exchange markets. The speculator position, meanwhile, remains overall bearish, with a weekly standing of -34,179 contracts. The NZD speculative standing has now remained in a bearish position for the past 45 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 15th of 2025. We shall see if this new information and possible bias for higher interest rates will dampen the existing bearish sentiment for traders and speculators.

The Canadian Dollar is next up in speculative positioning major changes this week as the CAD speculators dropped their positions by -37,651 contracts. This was the third consecutive week that Canadian Dollar positions have fallen or gone more bearish overall as fluctuating crude oil prices have had a volatile effect on speculator positioning. The Canadian Dollar speculative standing this week sits at -68,882 contracts, which is the most bearish level of the past six weeks. In the foreign exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar is still within its ascending triangle, although currently the CAD is near the bottom of its ascending trend line at the moment and still slightly below its 200-week moving average. But the Canadian Dollar was marginally higher this week and trades around the 0.7254 threshold which means there’s still waiting to be done to see if the CAD breaks out of its ascending triangle soon.

Next up, the Australian Dollar speculative position fell sharply this week after four consecutive weeks of increases. The AUD speculative position remains in a strong bullish level at a total of 60,155 net contracts. The overall position continues to have a strong strength score with an 86.8% score of the range of the past three years, which categorizes as bullish extreme. In the foreign exchange market, the Australian Dollar continues to show strength, and this week gained after falling in the two previous weeks. The AUD closed above the 0.7180 price level and could be rising higher to test the 2026 high (and the highest levels the currency has seen since 2022).

The Japanese Yen speculative position continues to accumulate bearish positions for a third consecutive week this week. The Japanese Yen speculators have now added a total of -52,929 net contracts to a bearish position over just the past three weeks and brings the total bearish level to -114,667 contracts. This is the most bearish position since July 16th of 2024, a span of 97 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets, the Japanese Yen was down just a bit this week, and the volatility of the currency has taken a hit after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market to stem the weakness of the JPY a few weeks ago. The current level of the Japanese Yen is back near the price where the BOJ intervened, and traders are understandably treading cautiously.

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculative position this week rose modestly by 1,329 contracts. This has taken the overall net position out of the small bearish position of May 19th to this week’s small bullish position of +850 contracts. The US Dollar Index contracts have been in bullish territory for 10 out of the last 11 weeks. Overall, in the big picture of things, the current positioning marks a very neutral level. In the foreign exchange markets, we have not seen much change for the US Dollar Index as it continues to trade in its well-established range of between 96.50 on the low side and with the significant resistance level of 100.00 on the upside. This week, the Dollar Index dipped and continues almost in the middle of its range to trade at 98.85.

Currencies Price Performance Leaders

The New Zealand Dollar leads Currency market price performances. In the major international Currency market price performances, the New Zealand Dollar came in at the highest weekly gain with a 2.02% increase. The Australian Dollar came in next with a 0.36% rise, followed by the Euro, which was up by 0.24%, and the Swiss Franc, which was also up by 0.24%. The Canadian Dollar rounds out the gainers for the week with a 0.10% uptick.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling edged lower with a -0.06% slide, followed by the Brazilian Real, which dipped by -0.08%. Next up, the US Dollar Index was slightly lower with a -0.16% shortfall, followed by the Japanese Yen, which was lower by -0.18%. The Mexican Peso dipped by -0.42% on the week.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which saw a fall by -2.60%.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (95 percent) and the Brazilian Real (92 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (87 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (14 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (71.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (86.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (42.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (92.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (91.6 percent)
Bitcoin (94.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (4 percent), the Bitcoin (2 percent) and the EuroFX (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the British Pound (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.2 percent)
EuroFX (1.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (1.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -479 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.833.98.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.839.64.3
– Net Position:850-2,4131,563
– Gross Longs:22,73214,3373,364
– Gross Shorts:21,88216,7501,801
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.450.073.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.78.225.7

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -4,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,513 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.157.010.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.565.06.4
– Net Position:29,426-65,52436,098
– Gross Longs:223,055469,88688,813
– Gross Shorts:193,629535,41052,715
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.058.550.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.3-1.0-0.9

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -61,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,307 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.667.910.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.345.410.9
– Net Position:-61,39863,548-2,150
– Gross Longs:57,978191,61128,467
– Gross Shorts:119,376128,06330,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.585.047.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.81.76.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -20,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,905 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.457.310.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.332.19.3
– Net Position:-114,667107,6926,975
– Gross Longs:112,993244,88846,540
– Gross Shorts:227,660137,19639,565
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.178.154.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.76.712.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,937 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.782.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.039.720.2
– Net Position:-35,14045,171-10,031
– Gross Longs:7,11887,06311,286
– Gross Shorts:42,25841,89221,317
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.273.136.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.27.3-14.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -68,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -37,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,231 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.065.610.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.141.411.7
– Net Position:-68,88271,845-2,963
– Gross Longs:53,676195,30731,797
– Gross Shorts:122,558123,46234,760
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.846.837.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-2.6-8.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -25,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,644 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.640.513.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.867.16.5
– Net Position:60,155-80,43220,277
– Gross Longs:129,129122,59839,822
– Gross Shorts:68,974203,03019,545
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.813.782.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.54.5-11.6

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 6,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,613 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.882.53.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.242.07.0
– Net Position:-34,17936,990-2,811
– Gross Longs:11,72175,3803,570
– Gross Shorts:45,90038,3906,381
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.875.715.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-7.6-17.9

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,249 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.050.24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.181.71.4
– Net Position:58,154-63,3905,236
– Gross Longs:90,541100,9528,046
– Gross Shorts:32,387164,3422,810
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.355.251.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.60.13.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,012 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.217.93.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.167.01.0
– Net Position:71,651-74,8123,161
– Gross Longs:96,20427,2534,757
– Gross Shorts:24,553102,0651,596
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.3 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.17.838.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.0-22.0-5.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,112 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.31.05.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.712.05.4
– Net Position:2,282-2,390108
– Gross Longs:17,1462121,267
– Gross Shorts:14,8642,6021,159
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.93.442.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.8-7.713.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
31 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel which showed a small gain by 245 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,573 contracts), Copper (-2,846 contracts), Silver (-2,448 contracts), Platinum (-250 contracts) and with Palladium (-393 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads Metals markets price performances on the week

This week’s major Metals market price performances were led by Palladium, which rose by 1.10%. Gold was up marginally higher by 0.45%, while Steel rounded out the gainers with a 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Platinum dipped by -0.25% and Copper was lower by -0.50%. Silver was the biggest decliner on the week with a -2.69% decrease.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (97 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) and Gold (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.2 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (97.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (99.6 percent)
Platinum (55.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.8 percent)
Palladium (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.4 percent)
Steel (85.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (84.2 percent)

 

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover this week.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.4 percent)
Silver (-2.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.1 percent)
Copper (16.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.7 percent)
Platinum (-7.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.3 percent)
Palladium (-12.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.3 percent)
Steel (-0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 154,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,833 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.821.113.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.173.74.4
– Net Position:154,260-185,76631,506
– Gross Longs:200,70474,64147,149
– Gross Shorts:46,444260,40715,643
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.3 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.061.858.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.46.1-20.6

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,671 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.227.126.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.467.38.5
– Net Position:22,223-40,89318,670
– Gross Longs:32,75827,60527,301
– Gross Shorts:10,53568,4988,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.271.955.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-1.211.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,886 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.733.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.364.53.7
– Net Position:73,040-83,71210,672
– Gross Longs:105,67388,08320,574
– Gross Shorts:32,633171,7959,902
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.02.969.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.4-16.68.4

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,908 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.529.113.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.366.34.5
– Net Position:17,658-23,3075,649
– Gross Longs:25,99818,2678,463
– Gross Shorts:8,34041,5742,814
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.246.463.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.45.011.4

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,497 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.540.414.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.828.09.9
– Net Position:-2,8902,059831
– Gross Longs:6,4326,7392,478
– Gross Shorts:9,3224,6801,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.830.348.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.111.6-1.8

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,106 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.165.81.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.493.40.1
– Net Position:11,351-11,781430
– Gross Longs:13,23428,015477
– Gross Shorts:1,88339,79647
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.7 to 110.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.414.591.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.90.81.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
31 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro 

Bonds Market Open Interest Comparison
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Net Speculators Positions
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (305,591 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (60,098 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (27,389 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-253,525 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-60,859 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-20,577 contracts), the Fed Funds (-9,975 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,378 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-576 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 5-Year Bond leads the US Bond market price performances.

In the major US Bond markets price changes this week, the 5-Year Bond was the highest gainer with a modest 0.32% increase. The 10-Year Note follows that up with a 0.17% increase over the past five days, while the Fed Funds was up by a minuscule 0.01%, just like the 2-Year Bond, which was higher by 0.01% as well.

The Long US Treasury Bond was virtually unchanged on the week, while the 3-Month SOFR edged lower by -0.01%. And to close it out, the 1-Month SOFR dipped by -0.02%.

Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Strength Index Comparison
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (40.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (42.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (58.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (78.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (77.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (35.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (77.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (77.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (75.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (42.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (53.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (10.2 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Bonds Market Trend Index Comparison
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (53 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-44 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-44 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 1-Month (-27 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (53.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-43.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-41.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-26.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-44.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-36.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -106,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,824 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.467.62.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.962.51.7
– Net Position:-106,79998,0568,743
– Gross Longs:182,8281,310,70741,193
– Gross Shorts:289,6271,212,65132,450
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.758.863.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.212.1-10.8

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,727,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -253,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,473,774 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.264.50.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.151.60.3
– Net Position:-1,727,2991,718,0079,292
– Gross Longs:1,624,6198,610,80748,987
– Gross Shorts:3,351,9186,892,80039,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.052.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-44.444.311.8

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -199,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -60,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,037 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.763.40.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.951.50.3
– Net Position:-199,896195,6894,207
– Gross Longs:304,9501,036,3768,991
– Gross Shorts:504,846840,6874,784
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.856.375.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.926.18.6

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,255,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 305,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,560,837 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.675.76.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.951.55.6
– Net Position:-1,255,2461,200,67354,573
– Gross Longs:478,4283,756,899332,359
– Gross Shorts:1,733,6742,556,226277,786
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.047.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:53.3-48.7-13.4

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,323,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 27,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,350,516 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.777.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.059.05.7
– Net Position:-1,323,1271,258,84564,282
– Gross Longs:526,9605,297,812457,425
– Gross Shorts:1,850,0874,038,967393,143
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.923.234.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-18.5-2.2

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -787,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 60,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -848,052 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.667.911.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.260.06.8
– Net Position:-787,954496,185291,769
– Gross Longs:600,1644,248,016715,099
– Gross Shorts:1,388,1183,751,831423,330
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.630.5100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-36.878.9

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -115,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,954 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.676.29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.867.614.2
– Net Position:-115,530234,363-118,833
– Gross Longs:235,0082,081,677269,622
– Gross Shorts:350,5381,847,314388,455
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.037.013.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-4.4-0.8

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -199,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -20,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,674 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.274.213.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.168.58.9
– Net Position:-199,251115,89983,352
– Gross Longs:164,5861,488,410262,170
– Gross Shorts:363,8371,372,511178,818
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.175.838.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.537.6-15.0

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -259,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -5,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -254,464 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.782.97.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.072.28.4
– Net Position:-259,842271,954-12,112
– Gross Longs:144,4292,100,077199,583
– Gross Shorts:404,2711,828,123211,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.746.32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-9.1-17.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
31 May

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gasoline & Bloomberg Index

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Energy Futures COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gasoline & Bloomberg Index

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Gasoline (3,698 contracts) with the Bloomberg Index (1,152 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-11,582 contracts), Natural Gas (-10,985 contracts), Brent Oil (-7,848 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-3,036 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy market price performances

In the Energy markets this week, Natural Gas was the only market that saw a higher five-day percentage gain. Natural Gas jumped by over 14% with a 14.74% rise over the past week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index dipped by -2.93% on the week, followed by WTI Crude Oil, which slid by -3.42%. Heating Oil was down by -6.68%, while Gasoline saw a similar -6.74% decrease.

Finally, the biggest decliner on the week was Brent Crude Oil with a -10.93% shortfall on the week.

Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gasoline (47.5 percent) and Heating Oil (46.9 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (1.5 percent) and Natural Gas (2.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (34.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (39.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (42.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (34.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Natural Gas (2.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (9.1 percent)
Gasoline (47.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (43.4 percent)
Heating Oil (46.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (50.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (0.3 percent)

 

Gasoline & Bloomberg Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (1.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets and is the only positive mover at the moment.

WTI Crude (-14.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-13.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-14.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-10.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.3 percent)
Gasoline (1.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-9.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-6.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-4.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-0.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-1.1 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 160,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,580 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.945.04.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.854.72.4
– Net Position:160,998-195,47334,475
– Gross Longs:378,088900,99782,778
– Gross Shorts:217,0901,096,47048,303
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.157.069.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.715.7-11.7

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -7,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,966 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.335.15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.524.72.4
– Net Position:-32,81426,0556,759
– Gross Longs:58,11087,60312,803
– Gross Shorts:90,92461,5486,044
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.459.1100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.18.636.6

 

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -203,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -10,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,196 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.136.53.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.424.92.4
– Net Position:-203,181190,17813,003
– Gross Longs:230,515598,59451,581
– Gross Shorts:433,696408,41638,578
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.1100.036.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.512.3-7.5

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 3,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,929 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.246.38.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.069.04.2
– Net Position:54,627-68,41713,790
– Gross Longs:81,746139,27626,365
– Gross Shorts:27,119207,69312,575
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.543.580.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-2.68.1

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,643 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.544.121.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.556.210.3
– Net Position:2,607-29,85227,245
– Gross Longs:38,565109,63952,929
– Gross Shorts:35,958139,49125,684
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.938.192.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.6-0.515.2

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 1,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,415 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.455.80.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.624.80.0
– Net Position:-75,26374,793470
– Gross Longs:104,841134,793509
– Gross Shorts:180,10460,00039
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.2 to 113.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.598.662.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.50.6-7.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
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