Archive for COT Updates

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators drop their Euro Bets to 43-Week Low on ECB Rates

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,004 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,712 contracts) and Bitcoin (193 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-23,151 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-16,920 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-1,577 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-756 contracts), Mexican Peso (-650 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-620 contracts) and the British Pound (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Traders drop their Euro Bets to 43-Week Low on ECB Rates

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the dropping speculator positioning for the Euro Currency. Large speculative Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -23,000 contracts and declined for a fourth consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased for the seventh time in the past eight weeks as well as in nine out of the past eleven weeks.

The Euro speculative standing still remains in a highly bullish level with the net position at a total of +113,080 contracts currently. However, the net position has now fallen by a total of -46,783 contracts in just the past four weeks and by a total of -65,752 contracts over the past eight weeks.

Overall, the Euro net speculator level has been above the +100,000 contract level for forty-six straight weeks and ascended to a 137-week high with a total net position of +187,089 contracts on May 16th – the most bullish point since a total of 188,116 contracts was reached on September 29th of 2020.

The European Central Bank has helped dampen the sentiment for the Euro currency as the bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent on Thursday but signaled that there may be no more rate hikes on the docket. The ECB also revised their economic growth projections lower with the bank seeing just 0.7 percent growth in 2023. Following the announcement, many participants are expecting not to see further rate rises and even possible rate cuts if the economy continues to deteriorate.

The Euro currency spot price (versus the US Dollar) has been retreating mightily and this week declined for a ninth consecutive week. The EUR/USD exchange rate closed at 1.0735 on Friday with the low of the week hitting the lowest level since March. The EUR/USD had been as high as 1.1310 on July 18th before starting on its current nine-week downtrend.

 


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,982376,07135-7,727631,65626
EUR743,75960113,08067-149,9813336,90138
GBP227,4375446,17488-51,168174,99468
JPY270,85492-98,71311106,64488-7,93137
CHF49,94570-9,3383112,35162-3,01350
CAD217,08074-41,8831549,27590-7,3926
AUD256,219100-79,5331194,99090-15,45715
NZD67,487100-14,6201417,25787-2,63719
MXN235,7205066,87180-71,492194,62141
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL34,9691913,17753-15,160461,98353
Bitcoin15,423732,232100-2,543031120

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (67 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (30.5 percent)
EuroFX (67.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.5 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

 

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent), Brazilian Real (-26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.5 percent)
EuroFX (-24.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-45.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-28.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-25.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-30.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-43.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.9 percent)
Bitcoin (41.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.419.311.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.538.17.0
– Net Position:6,071-7,7271,656
– Gross Longs:25,1457,9064,510
– Gross Shorts:19,07415,6332,854
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.163.525.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.9-6.614.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.655.512.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.475.77.5
– Net Position:113,080-149,98136,901
– Gross Longs:212,376412,96792,784
– Gross Shorts:99,296562,94855,883
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.433.337.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.726.7-20.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.835.414.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.557.911.9
– Net Position:46,174-51,1684,994
– Gross Longs:97,36580,44132,133
– Gross Shorts:51,191131,60927,139
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.817.067.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.48.7-23.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -98,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.167.813.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.628.416.2
– Net Position:-98,713106,644-7,931
– Gross Longs:38,247183,58936,043
– Gross Shorts:136,96076,94543,974
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.487.737.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.611.4-7.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.052.127.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.727.433.6
– Net Position:-9,33812,351-3,013
– Gross Longs:9,00926,01713,771
– Gross Shorts:18,34713,66616,784
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.962.050.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.614.7-27.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.660.814.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.938.118.0
– Net Position:-41,88349,275-7,392
– Gross Longs:40,298131,97631,767
– Gross Shorts:82,18182,70139,159
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.589.76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.049.4-54.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.564.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.527.314.7
– Net Position:-79,53394,990-15,457
– Gross Longs:47,309164,96122,273
– Gross Shorts:126,84269,97137,730
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.189.614.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.728.7-24.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.962.85.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.29.0
– Net Position:-14,62017,257-2,637
– Gross Longs:14,79742,3953,420
– Gross Shorts:29,41725,1386,057
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.087.218.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.945.2-35.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.552.43.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.182.81.1
– Net Position:66,871-71,4924,621
– Gross Longs:93,022123,5757,268
– Gross Shorts:26,151195,0672,647
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.018.740.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.212.80.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.333.19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.676.43.8
– Net Position:13,177-15,1601,983
– Gross Longs:19,69611,5683,305
– Gross Shorts:6,51926,7281,322
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.646.052.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.621.624.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.10.87.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.617.25.3
– Net Position:2,232-2,543311
– Gross Longs:11,8931171,134
– Gross Shorts:9,6612,660823
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.020.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.7-66.9-7.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (309 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-14,142 contracts) with Silver (-8,771 contracts), Platinum (-7,881 contracts), Copper (-5,564 contracts) and Steel (-588 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold441,2219123,86432-144,8106820,94632
Silver125,2921418,03344-32,0405514,00744
Copper196,19839-12,334209,886802,44834
Palladium17,83882-10,712210,76199-4939
Platinum87,0211006,72131-12,396685,67544

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (44 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (31.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.8 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.5 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.0 percent)
Platinum (31.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.3 percent)
Palladium (2.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.3 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (-9 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.7 percent)
Silver (-18.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (-19.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.9 percent)
Platinum (-12.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.0 percent)
Palladium (-9.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.9 percent)
Steel (-8.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.1 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 123,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.425.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.358.45.8
– Net Position:123,864-144,81020,946
– Gross Longs:235,704113,06246,740
– Gross Shorts:111,840257,87225,794
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.668.132.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.116.2-2.5

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.331.921.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.957.59.9
– Net Position:18,033-32,04014,007
– Gross Longs:52,96340,03026,427
– Gross Shorts:34,93072,07012,420
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.055.144.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.314.54.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.339.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.634.06.9
– Net Position:-12,3349,8862,448
– Gross Longs:67,33376,56116,045
– Gross Shorts:79,66766,67513,597
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.279.833.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.923.2-31.3

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.123.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.437.23.9
– Net Position:6,721-12,3965,675
– Gross Longs:43,61919,9999,083
– Gross Shorts:36,89832,3953,408
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.167.944.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.910.56.7

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.062.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.02.69.4
– Net Position:-10,71210,761-49
– Gross Longs:4,45211,2171,627
– Gross Shorts:15,1644561,676
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 124.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.199.238.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.67.912.6

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.588.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.663.21.8
– Net Position:-5,0305,182-152
– Gross Longs:1,15418,389215
– Gross Shorts:6,18413,207367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.640.04.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.99.5-22.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (47,233 contracts) with SOFR 3-Months (44,439 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30,615 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (25,238 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (5,605 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,346 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds with a drop by -38,064 contracts and the 2-Year Bonds with a decline of -21,719 contracts on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,667,873100316,51199-313,4380-3,07386
FedFunds1,458,26143-184,95425195,04075-10,08671
2-Year3,653,52085-1,239,60921,128,53999111,07093
Long T-Bond1,339,67572-192,68722152,6636540,02478
10-Year4,681,03287-744,30210720,2109524,09279
5-Year5,391,83085-1,031,03017954,4447976,58690

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (99.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (96.4 percent)

 

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Fed Funds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-10.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.2 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 316,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 272,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.958.20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.961.10.4
– Net Position:316,511-313,438-3,073
– Gross Longs:1,910,7026,204,62637,259
– Gross Shorts:1,594,1916,518,06440,332
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.40.186.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.2-36.811.6

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.274.82.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.961.43.1
– Net Position:-184,954195,040-10,086
– Gross Longs:104,5721,091,05435,676
– Gross Shorts:289,526896,01445,762
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.975.471.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.6-9.4

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,239,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,217,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.883.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.752.14.1
– Net Position:-1,239,6091,128,539111,070
– Gross Longs:320,0483,031,053259,610
– Gross Shorts:1,559,6571,902,514148,540
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.398.893.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.612.00.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,031,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.682.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.865.16.1
– Net Position:-1,031,030954,44476,586
– Gross Longs:465,2794,464,077405,798
– Gross Shorts:1,496,3093,509,633329,212
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.779.490.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-20.67.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -744,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 47,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -791,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.079.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.963.98.1
– Net Position:-744,302720,21024,092
– Gross Longs:467,1143,712,430404,705
– Gross Shorts:1,211,4162,992,220380,613
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.394.778.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.67.36.3

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -146,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -177,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.175.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.462.315.6
– Net Position:-146,433233,935-87,502
– Gross Longs:216,2511,344,525189,889
– Gross Shorts:362,6841,110,590277,391
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.684.362.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-9.42.9

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -192,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.978.814.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.367.411.3
– Net Position:-192,687152,66340,024
– Gross Longs:79,6561,056,184191,340
– Gross Shorts:272,343903,521151,316
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.965.077.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.00.04.3

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -376,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -378,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.482.811.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.860.59.0
– Net Position:-376,925343,79933,126
– Gross Longs:83,7391,279,765172,214
– Gross Shorts:460,664935,966139,088
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.166.668.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.1-33.4-10.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (9,014 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,055 contracts), Lean Hogs (5,402 contracts) and Cocoa (1,403 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-42,356 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,933 contracts), Cotton (-5,028 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,467 contracts), Wheat (-3,209 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,112 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,791,69635326,87147-348,7135721,84224
Gold441,2219123,86432-144,8106820,94632
Silver125,2921418,03344-32,0405514,00744
Copper196,19839-12,334209,886802,44834
Palladium17,83882-10,712210,76199-4939
Platinum87,0211006,72131-12,396685,67544
Natural Gas1,171,74744-112,0442786,5237425,52141
Brent136,16013-48,6101747,9459066518
Heating Oil334,3955036,92292-62,799725,87788
Soybeans740,0473685,21723-68,44073-16,77764
Corn1,268,17610-87,9880118,836100-30,84890
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar996,53270244,43577-297,7251953,29072
Wheat391,66961-49,6193246,521663,09882

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (77 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Cotton (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybeans (23 percent), Lean Hogs (29 percent) and Wheat (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.7 percent)
Sugar (77.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.1 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (53.1 percent)
Live Cattle (78.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.6 percent)
Cotton (47.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (31.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.8 percent)

 

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent), Lean Hogs (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-26.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-18.3 percent)
Sugar (11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-11.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (1.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.6 percent)
Cotton (5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -42,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.949.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.840.212.7
– Net Position:-87,988118,836-30,848
– Gross Longs:264,473628,085130,320
– Gross Shorts:352,461509,249161,168
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.089.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.422.055.4

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.044.89.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.474.74.6
– Net Position:244,435-297,72553,290
– Gross Longs:328,566446,54298,865
– Gross Shorts:84,131744,26745,575
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.318.872.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.6-15.624.2

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.049.56.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.558.89.0
– Net Position:85,217-68,440-16,777
– Gross Longs:162,761366,43449,882
– Gross Shorts:77,544434,87466,659
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.673.263.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.29.33.9

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.650.96.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.862.94.5
– Net Position:46,002-56,33810,336
– Gross Longs:97,027240,10531,734
– Gross Shorts:51,025296,44321,398
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.853.452.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.62.30.1

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.941.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.664.85.5
– Net Position:88,283-107,25518,972
– Gross Longs:109,513189,17743,929
– Gross Shorts:21,230296,43224,957
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.649.940.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.811.90.1

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.328.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.952.613.1
– Net Position:92,544-77,999-14,545
– Gross Longs:144,38393,33328,157
– Gross Shorts:51,839171,33242,702
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.727.48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.72.3-19.3

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.737.59.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.135.111.8
– Net Position:-7304,709-3,979
– Gross Longs:66,42573,89719,379
– Gross Shorts:67,15569,18823,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.174.665.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.6-12.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.242.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.669.03.7
– Net Position:51,382-60,1878,805
– Gross Longs:86,92296,89017,240
– Gross Shorts:35,540157,0778,435
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.449.669.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.6-4.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.124.74.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.655.43.1
– Net Position:87,623-91,4933,870
– Gross Longs:140,00473,43413,097
– Gross Shorts:52,381164,9279,227
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.035.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-10.15.8

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.234.010.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.822.19.3
– Net Position:-49,61946,5213,098
– Gross Longs:114,277133,15239,447
– Gross Shorts:163,89686,63136,349
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.566.181.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.711.734.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini 

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (27,878 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,096 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (656 contracts) and the VIX (3,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-20,113 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,494 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-1,176 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,520,16448-116,3334787,0455229,28849
Nikkei 22516,4251751472-9183040433
Nasdaq-Mini303,321779,05682-9,5081745266
DowJones-Mini102,91069-12,9003712,4375946346
VIX418,07281-39,3429040,0996-75792
Nikkei 225 Yen46,463293,889466,64629-10,53573

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (90 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (72 percent) and S&P500-Mini (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (43.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (37.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (40.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (82.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (72.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (19.4 percent)

 

S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the VIX (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-33 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-37.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (11.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-32.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.946.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.336.46.7
– Net Position:-39,34240,099-757
– Gross Longs:104,179192,41927,224
– Gross Shorts:143,521152,32027,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.36.291.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-3.06.8

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -116,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.172.311.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.768.810.2
– Net Position:-116,33387,04529,288
– Gross Longs:279,4711,821,412286,894
– Gross Shorts:395,8041,734,367257,606
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.451.948.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.5-13.65.8

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.158.914.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.746.813.7
– Net Position:-12,90012,437463
– Gross Longs:22,78860,63114,578
– Gross Shorts:35,68848,19414,115
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.459.146.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.028.22.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.656.614.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.759.714.7
– Net Position:9,056-9,508452
– Gross Longs:68,674171,57044,891
– Gross Shorts:59,618181,07844,439
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.416.566.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-13.82.1

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.781.95.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.571.04.9
– Net Position:-63,61559,0334,582
– Gross Longs:47,088443,19831,308
– Gross Shorts:110,703384,16526,726
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.863.740.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.81.8

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.968.520.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.874.118.1
– Net Position:514-918404
– Gross Longs:1,79311,2493,383
– Gross Shorts:1,27912,1672,979
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.430.333.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-3.1-10.6

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.990.32.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.678.61.9
– Net Position:-58,19254,0084,184
– Gross Longs:22,550415,41212,927
– Gross Shorts:80,742361,4048,743
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.037.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.835.7-13.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, Bitcoin, EAFE & Corn lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 9.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 87,623 net contracts this week with a change of 1,403 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Bitcoin


The Bitcoin speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 41.7 this week. The speculator position registered 2,232 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 193 contracts in speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 316,511 net contracts this week with a change of 44,439 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 92.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 36,922 net contracts this week with a change of -1,815 contracts in the speculator bets.


VIX


The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.1 this week.

The speculator position was -39,342 net contracts this week with a change of 3,384 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI


The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -58,192 net contracts this week with a change of -20,113 contracts in the speculator bets.


Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.4 this week. The speculator position was -87,988 net contracts this week with a change of -42,356 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -10,712 net contracts this week with a change of 309 contracts in the speculator bets.


2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.6 this week. The speculator position was -1,239,609 net contracts this week with a change of -21,719 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


10-Year Note


Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 10.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The speculator position was -744,302 net contracts this week with a change of 47,233 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (1,337 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (536 contracts) and Bitcoin (532 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-13,352 contracts), EuroFX (-10,448 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-9,202 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,342 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,624 contracts), Brazilian Real (-2,655 contracts), the British Pound (-2,017 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued weakness of the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative currency positions for the Aussie dropped this week by over -13,000 net contracts and fell for the fourth consecutive week as well as for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks.

The AUD positioning has now shed a total of -40,345 contracts over these past four weeks and this has brought the overall net speculator standing (currently at -83,352 contracts) to the lowest level in the past eighty weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022 when the net position was -84,080 contracts. The 3-Year Strength Index is showing a 7.4 percent score for the AUD, marking an extreme bearish reading for speculators this week.

The Australian dollar has been in a downtrend over the course in 2023 after opening the year at approximately the 0.6815 exchange rate and this week touched the lowest level since November of 2022 at a low of 0.6360.

Hurting the AUD’s exchange against the US Dollar is the interest rate disparity and the possible future divergence of the central banks with the US Federal Reserve possibly continuing to raise its benchmark rate (currently at 5.25-5.50%) while the Reserve Bank of Australia is assumed to be finished boosting its rate (currently at 4.10%).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index36,579263,35931-5,005681,64626
EUR754,26365136,23177-175,8542439,62342
GBP225,4045246,38488-49,955183,57165
JPY268,34490-97,13612105,86787-8,73136
CHF46,67059-5,3254210,68759-5,36242
CAD189,66055-24,9633129,46176-4,49813
AUD241,201100-83,537795,36690-11,82924
NZD56,46279-14,0001617,29187-3,29111
MXN246,0615467,52180-71,732194,21138
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL34,8711913,93354-15,569461,63650
Bitcoin14,962692,039100-2,534049524

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (77 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (7 percent), the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (30.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.6 percent)
EuroFX (77.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (89.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (7.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (56.9 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.8 percent)

 

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.7 percent)
EuroFX (-17.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-13.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-28.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-22.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.1 percent)
Bitcoin (41.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.620.412.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.434.08.0
– Net Position:3,359-5,0051,646
– Gross Longs:22,8817,4484,587
– Gross Shorts:19,52212,4532,941
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.567.825.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.52.116.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.353.911.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.277.26.7
– Net Position:136,231-175,85439,623
– Gross Longs:235,732406,48590,003
– Gross Shorts:99,501582,33950,380
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.123.742.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.221.8-27.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.137.315.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.559.513.4
– Net Position:46,384-49,9553,571
– Gross Longs:92,64584,12933,867
– Gross Shorts:46,261134,08430,296
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.017.765.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.815.1-28.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.871.113.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.031.716.3
– Net Position:-97,136105,867-8,731
– Gross Longs:37,014190,80434,930
– Gross Shorts:134,15084,93743,661
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.387.335.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.59.40.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.648.226.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.025.337.6
– Net Position:-5,32510,687-5,362
– Gross Longs:11,49422,50812,168
– Gross Shorts:16,81911,82117,530
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.959.141.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.513.1-37.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.154.817.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.339.319.5
– Net Position:-24,96329,461-4,498
– Gross Longs:45,761103,95932,462
– Gross Shorts:70,72474,49836,960
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.376.212.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.435.1-46.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.460.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.021.114.9
– Net Position:-83,53795,366-11,829
– Gross Longs:54,032146,17624,035
– Gross Shorts:137,56950,81035,864
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.490.123.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.034.2-32.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.860.35.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.629.711.0
– Net Position:-14,00017,291-3,291
– Gross Longs:16,84734,0682,947
– Gross Shorts:30,84716,7776,238
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.687.210.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.440.7-50.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 67,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.851.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.380.91.2
– Net Position:67,521-71,7324,211
– Gross Longs:100,298127,3727,084
– Gross Shorts:32,777199,1042,873
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.318.638.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.412.1-0.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.730.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.875.34.8
– Net Position:13,933-15,5691,636
– Gross Longs:20,47310,6813,318
– Gross Shorts:6,54026,2501,682
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.545.549.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.920.215.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.80.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.117.64.8
– Net Position:2,039-2,534495
– Gross Longs:11,9331051,218
– Gross Shorts:9,8942,639723
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.024.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.6-64.3-7.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (102,419 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (14,018 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,444 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2,598 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-7,692 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-51,645 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-53,150 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-48,034 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,646,087100272,07296-267,0653-5,00785
FedFunds1,352,67234-146,89032160,10069-13,21065
2-Year3,661,94185-1,217,89041,114,53298103,35890
Long T-Bond1,343,05773-198,29220152,4176545,87582
10-Year4,718,78290-791,5356770,68510020,85078
5-Year5,415,83285-1,056,26815969,4138186,85593

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (96 percent) and the Fed Funds (32 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (13.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (31.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

 

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the  are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-5 percent) and the Fed Funds (2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-16.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-5.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (26.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 272,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -53,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.758.20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.160.70.3
– Net Position:272,072-267,065-5,007
– Gross Longs:1,882,3916,190,89728,482
– Gross Shorts:1,610,3196,457,96233,489
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.43.385.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.16.2

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.172.52.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.060.63.2
– Net Position:-146,890160,100-13,210
– Gross Longs:96,359980,02229,657
– Gross Shorts:243,249819,92242,867
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.969.165.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.7-5.2

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,217,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -48,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,169,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.382.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.651.84.2
– Net Position:-1,217,8901,114,532103,358
– Gross Longs:341,1983,013,032255,487
– Gross Shorts:1,559,0881,898,500152,129
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.997.690.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.35.33.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,056,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -51,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,004,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.883.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.365.76.1
– Net Position:-1,056,268969,41386,855
– Gross Longs:424,1574,525,006414,910
– Gross Shorts:1,480,4253,555,593328,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.880.692.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-10.010.2

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -791,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -805,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.679.28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.462.98.4
– Net Position:-791,535770,68520,850
– Gross Longs:454,8803,738,091416,866
– Gross Shorts:1,246,4152,967,406396,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.7100.078.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.317.9-0.7

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -177,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.676.810.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.661.615.3
– Net Position:-177,048268,877-91,829
– Gross Longs:206,1291,360,518179,479
– Gross Shorts:383,1771,091,641271,308
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.491.859.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-5.11.6

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -198,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.278.514.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.067.110.9
– Net Position:-198,292152,41745,875
– Gross Longs:83,1531,053,899191,920
– Gross Shorts:281,445901,482146,045
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.165.081.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.120.4-3.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -378,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -380,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.682.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.059.69.7
– Net Position:-378,271356,79221,479
– Gross Longs:86,2221,279,191171,723
– Gross Shorts:464,493922,399150,244
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.672.957.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.8-14.9-33.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was with Gold (14,734 contracts) and Copper (9,846 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-1,045 contracts) with Platinum (-436 contracts), Silver (-329 contracts) and Steel (-320 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold438,6728138,00638-158,2396320,23331
Silver128,2791726,80456-37,7084810,90427
Copper193,59737-6,770254,659752,11132
Palladium17,64480-11,021010,88810013350
Platinum68,7215314,60249-19,001544,39927

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (56 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (31.3 percent)
Silver (56.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.0 percent)
Copper (25.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.5 percent)
Platinum (49.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.3 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.2 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Copper (-7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative scores.

Palladium (-18 percent), Gold (-16 percent) and Silver (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-15.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.3 percent)
Platinum (-2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.6 percent)
Palladium (-17.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.0 percent)
Steel (-8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 138,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.361.55.9
– Net Position:138,006-158,23920,233
– Gross Longs:235,802111,45645,966
– Gross Shorts:97,796269,69525,733
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.862.930.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.715.4-10.9

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.931.218.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.060.610.1
– Net Position:26,804-37,70810,904
– Gross Longs:57,55840,05223,814
– Gross Shorts:30,75477,76012,910
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.548.226.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.5-10.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.740.77.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.238.36.6
– Net Position:-6,7704,6592,111
– Gross Longs:67,11878,86714,880
– Gross Shorts:73,88874,20812,769
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.075.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.97.1-4.0

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,038 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.652.74.8
– Net Position:14,602-19,0014,399
– Gross Longs:36,99117,2127,704
– Gross Shorts:22,38936,2133,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.354.227.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.03.0-7.4

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.764.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.22.39.1
– Net Position:-11,02110,888133
– Gross Longs:4,00811,2961,746
– Gross Shorts:15,0294081,613
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 127.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.913.039.4

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.587.63.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.665.71.9
– Net Position:-4,4424,220222
– Gross Longs:1,05816,848587
– Gross Shorts:5,50012,628365
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.238.350.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.07.617.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 with a small gain of 591 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,282 contracts) with the VIX (-8,940 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,833 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,612 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,105 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-1,724 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,259,16026-144,21143123,5675720,64446
Nikkei 22524,68440-14268-1,199291,34145
Nasdaq-Mini274,7014713,55085-5,69619-7,85439
DowJones-Mini93,93353-11,7244110,223551,50151
VIX402,06173-42,7268844,2659-1,53988
Nikkei 225 Yen66,338665,8605214,72351-20,58340

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (43.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (43.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (40.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (45.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)

 

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-37.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.345.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.034.87.0
– Net Position:-42,72644,265-1,539
– Gross Longs:101,854184,11226,430
– Gross Shorts:144,580139,84727,969
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.89.188.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-1.513.7

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -144,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.975.011.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.269.510.5
– Net Position:-144,211123,56720,644
– Gross Longs:245,3781,693,540256,870
– Gross Shorts:389,5891,569,973236,226
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.256.945.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-12.71.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.757.315.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.246.513.9
– Net Position:-11,72410,2231,501
– Gross Longs:22,24553,86514,590
– Gross Shorts:33,96943,64213,089
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.754.651.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.220.315.4

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.056.213.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.058.316.7
– Net Position:13,550-5,696-7,854
– Gross Longs:74,040154,34638,035
– Gross Shorts:60,490160,04245,889
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.019.038.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-8.6-20.3

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.983.35.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.969.55.1
– Net Position:-71,71170,806905
– Gross Longs:50,897426,55426,844
– Gross Shorts:122,608355,74825,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.970.229.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.84.0-13.1

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.362.918.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.867.812.6
– Net Position:-142-1,1991,341
– Gross Longs:4,01515,5374,453
– Gross Shorts:4,15716,7363,112
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.228.645.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.0-18.36.8

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.190.72.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.981.91.5
– Net Position:-38,07934,3463,733
– Gross Longs:23,910354,1379,687
– Gross Shorts:61,989319,7915,954
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.035.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.513.0-18.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.