COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (25,739 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (21,157 contracts), the EuroFX (20,439 contracts), the Japanese Yen (10,896 contracts), the British Pound (5,818 contracts), the US Dollar Index (2,013 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,865 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,204 contracts), Bitcoin (392 contracts), and with the Swiss Franc (314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Mexican Peso with a decrease of -4,039 contracts.

NZD leads Price Performance Returns for FX this week

In the currency markets this week, the New Zealand Dollar saw the biggest rise on the week with a 1.25% gain in the past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 1.12%, followed by the Australian Dollar which rose by 1.01%. The Japanese Yen came in next with a 0.67% rise, followed by the Canadian Dollar which increased by 0.60% on the week, while the Brazilian Real was up by 0.59%. The British Pound also saw a small gain this week with a 0.34% rise, and the Euro rounds out the gainers with a 0.27% increase.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.22%, followed by the Mexican Peso which fell by -0.59%. Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the week with a -6.27% drop.

FX COT Data Roundup: Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

Highlighting this week’s currency speculated data was strong rises in speculative bets for the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar and the Euro.

– The Canadian Dollar speculative bets surged the most this week by over 25,000 contracts. This is the second straight week of increases, as well as the seventh time out of the last nine weeks that bets have improved. Overall, the CAD speculator data have been highly negative, with bets being in bearish territory for the past 130 consecutive weeks, dating back to August 1st of 2023. But there has been a sharp turnaround since the end of 2025 as the bearish bets have fallen from a -130,600 on December 9th to this week’s speculative standing at just -16,046 contracts. This is the least bearish position for the Canadian Dollar speculators since February of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the CAD trades right around the exchange rate of 0.7373 to close out this week. This roughly coincides with the 200-weekly moving average and a close above the 200-weekly moving average would be the first time the Canadian Dollar has been above this measure since August of 2022.

– The Australian Dollar speculative bets jumped by over 21,000 contracts this week and rose for the ninth consecutive week. In these past nine weeks, the speculator bets have increased by a total of 91,322 net contracts. The positive trend in speculator bets has now pushed the Australian Dollar net standing into a bullish position at 7,146 net contracts which marks the first bullish level for the Australian Dollar in the past 59 weeks, dating back to December 10th of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the Australian Dollar has had two strong consecutive weekly gains, and this week the AUD touched its highest level (vs the USD) since January of 2023. Overall, the Australian Dollar exchange rate versus the USD has now been above its 200-weekly moving average for the past six weeks, which is the first time it has been multiple weeks over the 200-moving average since 2022.

– The Euro currency speculator position saw a rebound by over 20,000 net contracts this week after falling sharply in the previous two weeks. This week’s gain brings the overall net position level back to 132,134 net contracts, which is right around the average of the past 10 weeks. Overall, this is a strong, bullish position for speculators looking for the euro currency to continue to rise higher. Euro bets have now been in a consecutive net bullish position for 47 straight weeks, dating back to March 11th of 2025. And to illustrate the strength of the speculator sentiment, the Euro position has now been over the +100,000 net contract level for 29 out of the last 33 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the Euro briefly touched its highest level since June of 2021 at over the 1.2100 exchange rate. However, the Euro faltered to end the week with a few down days in a row and closed out trading at the 1.1893 exchange rate versus the US Dollar. Since the beginning of 2025, the Euro was now higher by approximately 16.5% and is up by just about 1% this month, ending January 31st.

– The US Dollar Index speculative bets rose this week after a decline last week, and have actually been higher in eight out of the last nine weeks. Overall, the US Dollar Index speculative positions have now been in a negative net standing for 33 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. In the exchange rate markets, the Dollar fell by a modest amount this week. And despite touching its lowest level since 2022 around the 95.36 exchange rate, the Dollar Index rallied at the end of the week to close out around the 96.86 price level. Likely helping the US Dollar strength on Friday was a steep sell-off in the precious metals markets to close out the week while also affecting the USD (and going forward) was the announcement of a nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Warsh.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (89 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (79 percent) and Bitcoin (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (32 percent) and the British Pound (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (32.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.8 percent)
EuroFX (79.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (30.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (88.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (66.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (82.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.8 percent)
Bitcoin (67.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (14 percent), Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-9 percent), Swiss Franc (-8 percent) and the EuroFX (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (20.1 percent)
EuroFX (-4.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (22.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-8.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	28.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.4	12.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-4,405	5,087	-682
– Gross Longs:	17,945	9,163	2,838
– Gross Shorts:	22,350	4,076	3,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	70.4	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.3	-1.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 132,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	74.1	4.9
– Net Position:	132,134	-181,604	49,470
– Gross Longs:	290,336	499,732	94,116
– Gross Shorts:	158,202	681,336	44,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	19.3	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.9	-3.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	43.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.9	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,162	5,464	10,698
– Gross Longs:	87,786	97,216	36,620
– Gross Shorts:	103,948	91,752	25,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	62.3	81.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-17.5	32.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.0	32.7	11.8
– Net Position:	-33,933	26,709	7,224
– Gross Longs:	104,460	125,157	42,786
– Gross Shorts:	138,393	98,448	35,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	57.7	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	-1.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	70.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.7	26.4	18.8
– Net Position:	-42,893	42,406	487
– Gross Longs:	9,724	67,805	18,510
– Gross Shorts:	52,617	25,399	18,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	68.6	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	3.3	8.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	46.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,046	13,734	2,312
– Gross Longs:	77,169	118,539	28,551
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	104,805	26,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	16.3	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-34.6	22.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	39.7	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	50.9	7.7
– Net Position:	7,146	-28,309	21,163
– Gross Longs:	109,806	100,026	40,630
– Gross Shorts:	102,660	128,335	19,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.1	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-17.8	1.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	80.8	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.9	23.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-47,745	48,868	-1,123
– Gross Longs:	12,074	69,085	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	59,819	20,217	4,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	89.1	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.4	1.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.7	33.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	78.7	1.3
– Net Position:	103,114	-107,349	4,235
– Gross Longs:	149,094	79,827	7,389
– Gross Shorts:	45,980	187,176	3,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	20.1	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-8.5	-2.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	41.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	60.7	0.9
– Net Position:	18,845	-22,726	3,881
– Gross Longs:	56,027	50,435	4,917
– Gross Shorts:	37,182	73,161	1,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.0	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.1	5.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	3.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.5	6.0	5.4
– Net Position:	690	-585	-105
– Gross Longs:	18,054	875	1,206
– Gross Shorts:	17,364	1,460	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	43.6	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.4	1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

01 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium, EAFE & CAD lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 27th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in once again this week as the most bullish extreme standing as the Steel speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 18 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,340 net contracts this week with a rise of 669 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position registered 684 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -204 contracts in speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position is third this week in the extreme standings with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level residing at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at plus 11 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 23,890 net contracts this week with a small dip of -679 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score jumped by a total of 35 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -16,046 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 25,739 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a slight gain by 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 12,327 net contracts this week but showed a drop of -8,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at just a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -17 percentage points while the overall speculator position was -15,502 net contracts this week after an increase of 2,372 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points while the speculator position was -167,753 net contracts this week with a gain of 10,595 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week. The overall speculator position was -47,745 net contracts with a rise of 1,865 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the CHF speculator level at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease of -8 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -42,893 net contracts this week with a slight increase of 314 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Cotton speculator level stands at a 16 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change on the week while the overall speculator position was -38,967 net contracts this week with a drop by -13,143 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

01 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a rise by 669 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,374 contracts), Copper (-4,185 contracts), Silver (-1,511 contracts), Platinum (-1,202 contracts) and with Palladium (-204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel is only price gainer for Metals Markets that saw a sell-off this week

The metals markets were overall lower on the week as the metals saw a steep and sharp selloff to close out the week. Steel was the only market that saw a weekly gain as Steel rose by over 5.50% and is now up by 9.30% in the past 30 days, and higher by approximately 40% in the past 90 days.

Copper was lower by -0.25% on the past five days, followed by Gold which saw a shortfall by -2.85%. Palladium dropped by -16.5% and Silver saw a strong decline lower by -18.86% on the week. Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a sharp -22.45% decline.

Over the past 30 days, the metals markets have all been higher, led by Silver which has been up by 30.59%, while in the past 90 days all of these markets have been at least 27% higher, with Silver up by 88.29%, Platinum up by 45.87%, Palladium higher by 40.39%, and Steel, which has risen by 40.22%. Gold has seen a 28.95% gain in the past 90 days while Copper has risen by 27.29% in that timeframe.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (42 percent) and Platinum (46 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (71.1 percent)
Silver (42.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.0 percent)
Copper (78.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (45.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.8 percent)
Palladium (96.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (97.8 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-23 percent), Silver (-17 percent) and Copper (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.6 percent)
Silver (-16.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-26.0 percent)
Copper (-15.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.2 percent)
Platinum (-23.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-1.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (17.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets: (Weekly Tuesday Closes)

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 205,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 244,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	19.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	70.5	4.1
– Net Position:	205,396	-248,285	42,889
– Gross Longs:	252,100	96,200	62,677
– Gross Shorts:	46,704	344,485	19,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	36.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	10.5	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	28.6	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.7	9.0
– Net Position:	23,703	-44,056	20,353
– Gross Longs:	43,475	44,788	34,444
– Gross Shorts:	19,772	88,844	14,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	52.1	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	13.9	8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	31.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	54.9	3.3
– Net Position:	48,390	-64,812	16,422
– Gross Longs:	101,400	87,989	25,663
– Gross Shorts:	53,010	152,801	9,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	14.6	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	12.1	12.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	26.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	53.7	3.9
– Net Position:	13,922	-22,026	8,104
– Gross Longs:	36,419	20,654	11,173
– Gross Shorts:	22,497	42,680	3,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	49.7	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	16.7	32.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	43.5	6.5
– Net Position:	684	-2,840	2,156
– Gross Longs:	9,436	5,487	3,396
– Gross Shorts:	8,752	8,327	1,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	0.3	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.1	27.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	57.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	90.7	0.5
– Net Position:	12,340	-12,763	423
– Gross Longs:	14,856	22,286	635
– Gross Shorts:	2,516	35,049	212
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-18.6	32.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

01 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (65,833 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (45,473 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (14,903 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (6,123 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,408 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (1,559 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-70,511 contracts), the Fed Funds (-38,218 contracts), and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,649 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Year Bonds lead Weekly Price Performance

The bond markets this week were led higher by the 5-Year Bonds which saw an edge higher by 0.21%, followed by the 2-Year Bonds, which inched up by 0.18%. The SOFR 1-Month was higher by 0.06%, followed by the SOFR 3-Months, which edged up by 0.04%.

The 10-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged at a -0.01% decline, followed by the Fed Funds which dipped by -0.03%. The US Treasury bond was the biggest loser on the week with a -0.91% shortfall.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (81 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (69 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (26.2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (44.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (25.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (58.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (80.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (74.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (41 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bond (13 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.1 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-22 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-55.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-21.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -116,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	61.7	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	57.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-116,029	94,933	21,096
– Gross Longs:	416,344	1,448,086	51,172
– Gross Shorts:	532,373	1,353,153	30,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	58.4	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.1	54.2	10.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -594,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -595,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	57.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	52.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-594,042	593,783	259
– Gross Longs:	1,746,386	7,681,337	41,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,340,428	7,087,554	41,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	70.3	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	21.7	0.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	66.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	53.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-208,039	208,128	-89
– Gross Longs:	325,816	1,084,095	158
– Gross Shorts:	533,855	875,967	247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	58.5	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.4	-41.5	2.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,218,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,225,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	74.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	50.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,218,999	1,097,684	121,315
– Gross Longs:	766,638	3,420,919	248,233
– Gross Shorts:	1,985,637	2,323,235	126,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	73.4	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.2	-2.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,091,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,136,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	53.1	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,091,046	1,946,525	144,521
– Gross Longs:	570,821	5,546,181	446,080
– Gross Shorts:	2,661,867	3,599,656	301,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	71.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.0	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -726,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	65.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-726,151	650,764	75,387
– Gross Longs:	668,746	4,400,390	434,438
– Gross Shorts:	1,394,897	3,749,626	359,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	52.2	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	17.8	-23.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -229,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	79.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	66.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-229,874	345,568	-115,694
– Gross Longs:	298,101	2,080,438	211,533
– Gross Shorts:	527,975	1,734,870	327,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	66.8	1.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	0.1	-58.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	75.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	82.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-8,167	-119,909	128,076
– Gross Longs:	171,238	1,385,781	252,582
– Gross Shorts:	179,405	1,505,690	124,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	9.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-11.4	1.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -258,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-273,471	266,980	6,491
– Gross Longs:	143,923	1,812,928	188,177
– Gross Shorts:	417,394	1,545,948	181,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	44.4	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	16.3	-20.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

01 Feb

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (29,884 contracts) with WTI Crude (18,190 contracts), Gasoline (8,433 contracts), Heating Oil (7,791 contracts) and Brent Oil (402 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index with a drop by -294 contracts on the week.

Energy Markets Price Performance led by Natural Gas

The energy markets this week were all higher in price performance and led by Natural Gas, which rose by approximately 21%. Heating Oil was next up with a 9.14% gain in the past five days, followed by WTI Crude Oil which rose by 7.53%, and then Brent Oil which rose by 7.36%. Gasoline was higher by 4.61% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 1.83% rise on the week.

All these markets are higher over the past 30 days, with Natural Gas up by approximately 40%, followed by Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil all seeing gains by more than 20% in the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Heating Oil

On the downside, WTI Crude (18.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Natural Gas (20.9 percent) and Brent Oil (21.6 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (18.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.1 percent)
Natural Gas (20.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.0 percent)
Gasoline (74.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (65.3 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (64.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (79.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (72.1 percent) and WTI Crude (13.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-14.9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (6.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-60.9 percent)
Gasoline (3.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-24.1 percent)
Heating Oil (11.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (74.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	47.0	2.5
– Net Position:	96,982	-115,048	18,066
– Gross Longs:	295,247	840,875	68,113
– Gross Shorts:	198,265	955,923	50,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-13.0	0.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	37.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	22.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-41,748	40,026	1,722
– Gross Longs:	57,294	100,693	7,911
– Gross Shorts:	99,042	60,667	6,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	16.7	-4.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	37.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-163,606	152,767	10,839
– Gross Longs:	216,112	601,095	51,823
– Gross Shorts:	379,718	448,328	40,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.3	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	24.8	-3.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.7	3.8
– Net Position:	79,213	-86,834	7,621
– Gross Longs:	118,536	218,244	25,419
– Gross Shorts:	39,323	305,078	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	25.0	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.2	1.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	46.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	23,835	-41,663	17,828
– Gross Longs:	67,848	175,380	45,533
– Gross Shorts:	44,013	217,043	27,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.9	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-5.1	-8.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	70.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	67.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-6,075	5,405	670
– Gross Longs:	50,840	132,086	705
– Gross Shorts:	56,915	126,681	35
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	20.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.1	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.1	-73.5	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,733 contracts) with Corn (20,033 contracts), Soybean Meal (14,496 contracts), Wheat (14,340 contracts), Sugar (10,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (9,539 contracts), Coffee (2,971 contracts) and Cocoa (2,372 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-13,143 contracts), Soybeans (-698 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-371 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle lead price performance this week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led by Live Cattle, which rose by 1.34 percent, followed by Wheat, which increased by 1.06 percent in the last five days. Corn was the only other market that saw a rise with a 0.34 percent gain.

On the downside, Coffee led the decreases on the week with a -5.58 percent decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by -3.35 percent, and Sugar, which also fell a similar -3.25 percent. Cotton saw a shortfall of -1.36 percent while Soybean Oil (-0.95%), Lean Hogs (-0.90%), and Cocoa (-0.86%) all fell by just under one percent. Soybeans were virtually unchanged with a -0.13 percent decline on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (73 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (66 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (2 percent), Sugar (7 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.2 percent)
Sugar (6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (24.3 percent)
Live Cattle (65.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (66.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (66.3 percent)
Cotton (15.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (34.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (43 percent) and Lean Hogs (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Coffee (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.2 percent)
Sugar (-2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (2.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.0 percent)
Soybeans (-30.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-35.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-8.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-57.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	45.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	42.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-31,671	52,691	-21,020
– Gross Longs:	341,576	774,514	140,713
– Gross Shorts:	373,247	721,823	161,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	65.2	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.5	3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	56.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-167,753	176,753	-9,000
– Gross Longs:	153,423	565,901	76,260
– Gross Shorts:	321,176	389,148	85,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	94.2	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	-0.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	40.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	59.8	3.6
– Net Position:	32,734	-34,082	1,348
– Gross Longs:	57,118	70,487	7,625
– Gross Shorts:	24,384	104,569	6,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.2	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-3.3	9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	51.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	56.0	8.5
– Net Position:	57,431	-37,074	-20,357
– Gross Longs:	167,074	444,216	52,360
– Gross Shorts:	109,643	481,290	72,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	44.1	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.6	-7.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.8	4.4
– Net Position:	41,276	-45,616	4,340
– Gross Longs:	139,537	310,531	33,483
– Gross Shorts:	98,261	356,147	29,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	35.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.7	-43.2	32.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	51.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	52.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-8,294	-8,069	16,363
– Gross Longs:	115,053	271,984	45,638
– Gross Shorts:	123,347	280,053	29,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	72.2	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	11.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 88,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	32.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	56.2	12.2
– Net Position:	88,978	-77,526	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	147,788	109,330	29,206
– Gross Shorts:	58,810	186,856	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	27.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-17.4	4.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	47.9	8.9
– Net Position:	65,936	-57,624	-8,312
– Gross Longs:	149,861	113,367	23,425
– Gross Shorts:	83,925	170,991	31,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	29.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-23.6	-15.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	48.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	38.2	3.8
– Net Position:	-38,967	38,648	319
– Gross Longs:	96,472	177,241	14,078
– Gross Shorts:	135,439	138,593	13,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	83.6	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	14.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	48.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	37.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-15,502	16,293	-791
– Gross Longs:	27,452	72,066	9,984
– Gross Shorts:	42,954	55,773	10,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	97.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	14.0	19.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	36.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	22.1	5.7
– Net Position:	-79,390	77,363	2,027
– Gross Longs:	119,821	195,721	32,444
– Gross Shorts:	199,211	118,358	30,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.1	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.9	24.8	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Jan

Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to 58-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the Currency Market Speculator Positions this week were the AUD, MXN, Euro & Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.

Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.

The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.

The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week. Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance led by NZD & AUD

The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.

The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (82 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), Australian Dollar (66 percent) and Bitcoin (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and the British Pound (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (34.1 percent)
EuroFX (71.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (66.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (82.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.9 percent)
Bitcoin (59.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.2 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (23 percent), the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-17 percent), EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (20.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.7 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (22.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.8	9.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-6,418	6,305	113
– Gross Longs:	16,003	9,023	2,762
– Gross Shorts:	22,421	2,718	2,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	3.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.8	73.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-19.9	-2.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 111,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	55.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	73.1	5.6
– Net Position:	111,695	-155,596	43,901
– Gross Longs:	275,235	488,166	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	163,540	643,762	49,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	28.2	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	11.6	-14.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	43.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.8	35.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-21,980	17,082	4,898
– Gross Longs:	81,332	91,023	33,243
– Gross Shorts:	103,312	73,941	28,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	66.9	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-26.2	35.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	39.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	25.4	13.5
– Net Position:	-44,829	41,140	3,689
– Gross Longs:	107,139	115,583	43,047
– Gross Shorts:	151,968	74,443	39,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	14.9	7.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	73.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.5	24.4	19.0
– Net Position:	-43,207	47,972	-4,765
– Gross Longs:	12,257	71,873	13,860
– Gross Shorts:	55,464	23,901	18,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	77.7	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	8.8	-3.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	56.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	34.7	15.0
– Net Position:	-41,785	45,990	-4,205
– Gross Longs:	59,456	120,142	27,744
– Gross Shorts:	101,241	74,152	31,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	30.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-40.8	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	43.6	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	48.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-14,011	-11,787	25,798
– Gross Longs:	85,759	100,608	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	99,770	112,395	16,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.7	-33.9	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	79.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	24.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-49,610	50,811	-1,201
– Gross Longs:	13,670	73,619	3,742
– Gross Shorts:	63,280	22,808	4,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.2	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.7	6.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	107,153	-111,938	4,785
– Gross Longs:	153,398	77,773	7,650
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	189,711	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.4	17.6	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.6	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	26.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	53.0	1.2
– Net Position:	17,641	-21,265	3,624
– Gross Longs:	53,730	21,911	4,628
– Gross Shorts:	36,089	43,176	1,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	46.1	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	27.6	6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	3.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.6	4.6
– Net Position:	298	-445	147
– Gross Longs:	19,841	940	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	19,543	1,385	1,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	46.7	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.2	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & Russell-2000 lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 20th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 20 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 11,671 net contracts this week with an increase by 649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the strength score was a rise by 6 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position registered 888 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -337 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Russell speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a strong boost of 33 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 20,563 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,126 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is also at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an increase by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 24,569 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,784 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Copper speculator level sits at na 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 52,575 net contracts this week with a decline of -866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Natural Gas speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -61 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was -193,490 contracts this week with a decrease of -7,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -14 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -17,874 net contracts this week with a decrease of -8,378 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was small bump up by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -178,348 net contracts this week with a slide by -12,637 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at an 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain by 8 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -49,610 net contracts this week with a change of -759 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 13 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 78,792 net contracts this week with a boost by 20,664 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

25 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

Leading the gains for the metals markets was Steel with an increase by 649 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-6,846 contracts), Gold (-6,468 contracts), Platinum (-2,470 contracts), Copper (-866 contracts) and with Palladium (-337 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Metals Market Price Performance led by Platinum

Platinum leads the past five days metals price performance as Platinum shot up by over 20%, followed by Palladium which jumped by 13.10% over that same period. Silver continued its hot streak with 11.51% gains over the past five days, followed by Gold with a rise of 8.19%. Steel was also up by 5.3% in that timeframe. Copper was the only market on the downside this week, with a minor dip by -0.68%.

The metals markets have been raging higher over the past 30 days, with Silver up by over 68%, followed by Platinum, which has seen a 67.39% gain in 30 days. Palladium is up by 37% in the past 30 days, while gold has run 18% higher and Copper is up by approximately 12%. Steel rounds out the past 30 days leaders with an approximately 10% gain.

The leaders over the past 90 days have been Silver, with a 139% gain, followed by Platinum, which is up by over 103%. Palladium has seen a 75% gain in the past 90 days, followed by Gold with a 35% rise, Copper with a 25% rise, and Steel is up over 40% in that same time. Truly an unprecedented time for metals strength.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (98 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores with Gold (71.1 percent) following.

On the lower side, Silver (44 percent) and Platinum (49 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels of the metals currently although both markets are right around the midpoint for the past 3-years (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (71.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (73.7 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.2 percent)
Copper (82.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (83.0 percent)
Platinum (48.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.0 percent)
Palladium (97.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (20 percent) and Gold (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-26 percent), Platinum (-12 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.8 percent)
Silver (-26.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.6 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.0 percent)
Palladium (6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.4 percent)
Steel (19.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (27.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 244,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	16.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	244,770	-289,689	44,919
– Gross Longs:	295,772	85,869	62,136
– Gross Shorts:	51,002	375,558	17,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	20.1	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-10.9	18.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	28.8	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	59.3	9.5
– Net Position:	25,214	-46,389	21,175
– Gross Longs:	42,965	43,723	35,608
– Gross Shorts:	17,751	90,112	14,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	49.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	18.0	27.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	30.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.8	3.0
– Net Position:	52,575	-69,186	16,611
– Gross Longs:	101,631	86,077	24,890
– Gross Shorts:	49,056	155,263	8,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	10.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.0	15.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	25.1	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	52.7	4.9
– Net Position:	15,124	-21,782	6,658
– Gross Longs:	39,709	19,867	10,541
– Gross Shorts:	24,585	41,649	3,883
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	50.3	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	9.0	14.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	28.5	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	42.9	7.4
– Net Position:	888	-2,762	1,874
– Gross Longs:	9,644	5,457	3,301
– Gross Shorts:	8,756	8,219	1,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	0.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.4	4.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	58.1	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	90.4	0.5
– Net Position:	11,671	-12,098	427
– Gross Longs:	14,235	21,805	611
– Gross Shorts:	2,564	33,903	184
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-20.5	33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (214,865 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (132,601 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (79,758 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,920 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-137,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-70,989 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-36,905 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-23,725 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-689 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Market Price were relatively unchanged on the week

The bond market price changes this week were relatively muted. The one-month SOFR and the three-month SOFR markets were a bit higher over the past 5 days at 0.06% and 0.04% gains, respectively. The two-year bond also edged up by 0.04%, while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged.

The five-year bond edged lower at -0.16, followed by the 10-year note, which saw a minor dip of -0.36, and the long US Treasury bond was lower by -0.43. Over the past 30 days, the bond markets have not seen much movement, with no market seeing a move higher or lower by over one percent. Over the past 90 days, the Fed Funds is up by 1.80% while on the downside, the 10-year note is lower by -1.23% and the long US Treasury bond is lower by -2.47%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 5-Year Bond (26 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (25.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (58.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (42.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (88.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (33.2 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (31.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (19.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (12.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -137,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	62.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	59.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-77,811	57,423	20,388
– Gross Longs:	367,713	1,368,009	53,049
– Gross Shorts:	445,524	1,310,586	32,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.0	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.2	53.0	21.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -595,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -524,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	56.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	52.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-595,601	596,564	-963
– Gross Longs:	1,736,807	7,384,520	33,194
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,408	6,787,956	34,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	70.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	15.5	-0.2

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -273,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	51.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,872	273,962	-90
– Gross Longs:	249,472	1,063,233	174
– Gross Shorts:	523,344	789,271	264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	70.0	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.5	2.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,225,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 79,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,304,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	49.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,225,122	1,115,768	109,354
– Gross Longs:	752,084	3,395,299	245,486
– Gross Shorts:	1,977,206	2,279,531	136,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	75.4	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-18.6	0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,136,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 132,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,269,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	81.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.4	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,136,519	1,990,497	146,022
– Gross Longs:	603,975	5,528,980	440,705
– Gross Shorts:	2,740,494	3,538,483	294,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	73.8	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.5	-0.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -655,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 214,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -870,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	6.2
– Net Position:	-655,640	573,096	82,544
– Gross Longs:	861,222	4,248,520	441,892
– Gross Shorts:	1,516,862	3,675,424	359,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	41.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	3.0	-17.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -235,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	78.6	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	64.8	13.1
– Net Position:	-235,282	352,921	-117,639
– Gross Longs:	308,830	2,021,438	219,966
– Gross Shorts:	544,112	1,668,517	337,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	68.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-15.0	-54.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	76.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	81.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-23,070	-93,965	117,035
– Gross Longs:	170,563	1,395,383	247,802
– Gross Shorts:	193,633	1,489,348	130,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	16.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-0.6	-9.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -258,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-258,822	253,269	5,553
– Gross Longs:	149,136	1,791,990	187,039
– Gross Shorts:	407,958	1,538,721	181,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	39.1	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	16.4	-20.7

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