COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to sharply boost their bullish positions

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,847 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,724 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,610 contracts), the British Pound (8,155 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,588 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,513 contracts), the Brazilian Real (838 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (757 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,811 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,153 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-246 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to raise the bullish position

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week, the story continues to be the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +35,847 contracts and rose for a fourth consecutive week this week. The JPY position has now jumped by a total of +84,026 contracts over just the past four weeks. These gains have boosted the overall net bullish position to a total of +54,615 contracts this week and marks the most bullish level for the yen bets since October 1st, a span of 20 weeks.

Helping out the yen speculative position is the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. The yields on the Japanese 10-year bonds (image above) have also been spiking higher as well in recent weeks with the yields approaching 1.40 percent and reaching the highest levels in fifteen years (since 2010).

The yen exchange rate, despite the improving sentiment by the speculators and rising bond yields, remains near the bottom of its range from the past few years. The yen fell this week versus the US Dollar following four weeks of gains. The USDJPY currency pair trades near the 152.00 currently after hitting support right around the 151.00 early in the week. The pair did reverse lower after hitting resistance when challenging the 154.00 level in the middle of the week and ended at 152.82.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

On the downside, the EuroFX (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.8 percent)
EuroFX (4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (95.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (81.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-2 percent) and Bitcoin (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (25.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-28.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-5.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	21.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	6.2
– Net Position:	15,296	-16,423	1,127
– Gross Longs:	26,261	8,459	3,546
– Gross Shorts:	10,965	24,882	2,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.7	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-16.1	-2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	56.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	50.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-64,425	39,974	24,451
– Gross Longs:	165,594	352,514	76,243
– Gross Shorts:	230,019	312,540	51,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	94.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	13.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	50.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	42.6	18.1
– Net Position:	-3,168	16,480	-13,312
– Gross Longs:	69,087	105,189	24,316
– Gross Shorts:	72,255	88,709	37,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	67.9	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.2	-14.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 35,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	27.0	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	52.0	13.3
– Net Position:	54,615	-68,154	13,539
– Gross Longs:	144,158	73,890	49,809
– Gross Shorts:	89,543	142,044	36,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.4	3.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-28.6	35.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	84.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	29.3	25.3
– Net Position:	-38,745	53,757	-15,012
– Gross Longs:	5,553	82,536	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,298	28,779	24,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	87.1	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.2	1.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	84.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	34.5	11.3
– Net Position:	-150,834	162,597	-11,763
– Gross Longs:	17,911	275,360	25,075
– Gross Shorts:	168,745	112,763	36,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	83.1	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.9	4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	63.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	16.2
– Net Position:	-65,585	70,444	-4,859
– Gross Longs:	40,368	123,991	26,941
– Gross Shorts:	105,953	53,547	31,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	71.9	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.8	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	82.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	23.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-49,336	51,398	-2,062
– Gross Longs:	11,218	71,567	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	60,554	20,169	6,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	93.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-0.1	14.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	54.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	63.3	4.0
– Net Position:	15,850	-13,270	-2,580
– Gross Longs:	59,388	77,683	3,229
– Gross Shorts:	43,538	90,953	5,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.4	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.4	0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	31.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	33.0	3.4
– Net Position:	1,080	-1,437	357
– Gross Longs:	41,738	22,118	2,795
– Gross Shorts:	40,658	23,555	2,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	47.9	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-25.7	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	5.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.5	4.6	4.2
– Net Position:	-367	307	60
– Gross Longs:	26,802	1,834	1,447
– Gross Shorts:	27,169	1,527	1,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	71.1	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	8.8	-22.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

16 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Steel, US Treasuries & Yen lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 11th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,855 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,618 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 27.5 this week. The speculator position registered 44,001 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 48,928 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 95.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 25.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 54,615 net contracts this week with a surged by 35,847 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 90.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 9.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 113,424 net contracts this week with a dip of -3,015 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 88.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 14.1 this week.

The speculator position was 284,504 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,004 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -26,526 net contracts this week with an increase of 6,583 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.0 this week. The speculator position was -64,425 net contracts this week with a decrease of -5,811 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,565 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,202 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.2 this week. The speculator position was -49,336 net contracts this week with a small dip of -246 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,735 net contracts this week with an advance by 65,931 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

16 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,755 contracts) with Copper (5,475 contracts) and Steel (4,618 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,004 contracts), Silver (-651 contracts) and with Palladium (-450 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Gold (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (79.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) and Palladium (54 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently but are above their 3-year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (88.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (95.1 percent)
Silver (79.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.8 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (76.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.8 percent)
Palladium (53.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.1 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.7 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (47 percent) and Steel (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.8 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (47.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.4 percent)
Steel (21.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 284,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	13.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	72.3	4.6
– Net Position:	284,504	-309,888	25,384
– Gross Longs:	343,766	72,622	49,509
– Gross Shorts:	59,262	382,510	24,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.3	10.7	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-13.9	4.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	19.8	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	61.3	8.7
– Net Position:	49,710	-68,250	18,540
– Gross Longs:	79,112	32,501	32,807
– Gross Shorts:	29,402	100,751	14,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	18.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-17.5	19.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.1	16.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	50.9	6.8
– Net Position:	25,730	-28,593	2,863
– Gross Longs:	54,600	13,437	8,495
– Gross Shorts:	28,870	42,030	5,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	28.8	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.5	-32.9	-84.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	40.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.6	12.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-6,574	5,643	931
– Gross Longs:	7,014	8,163	2,340
– Gross Shorts:	13,588	2,520	1,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	44.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.7	4.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-22.2	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (65,931 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (48,928 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,989 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-79,988 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-43,331 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-36,874 contracts), the Fed Funds (-15,621 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-5,059 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (79 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Fed Funds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (63.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (53.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (98.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (79.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (88.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.7 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-26.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (27.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (44.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-18.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-17.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	71.8	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	58.8	1.9
– Net Position:	-217,474	212,595	4,879
– Gross Longs:	192,884	1,175,918	36,375
– Gross Shorts:	410,358	963,323	31,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	80.7	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.9	12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -746,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	63.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	56.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-751,909	741,677	10,232
– Gross Longs:	1,274,103	6,488,316	48,858
– Gross Shorts:	2,026,012	5,746,639	38,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	18.5	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -36,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	62.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.8	0.4
– Net Position:	43,587	-40,739	-2,848
– Gross Longs:	270,679	841,032	2,193
– Gross Shorts:	227,092	881,771	5,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	21.5	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-29.0	-18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,298,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,218,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	77.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	48.5	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,298,612	1,190,699	107,913
– Gross Longs:	554,284	3,205,872	237,223
– Gross Shorts:	1,852,896	2,015,173	129,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	88.4	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	4.4	-9.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,861,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,927,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	56.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,861,735	1,761,677	100,058
– Gross Longs:	430,766	5,492,122	411,431
– Gross Shorts:	2,292,501	3,730,445	311,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.6	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.7	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -707,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	59.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-751,034	699,753	51,281
– Gross Longs:	726,203	3,652,408	420,463
– Gross Shorts:	1,477,237	2,952,655	369,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	15.4	-6.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.6	12.0
– Net Position:	-85,574	133,515	-47,941
– Gross Longs:	333,183	1,685,361	223,392
– Gross Shorts:	418,757	1,551,846	271,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	14.9	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-23.4	-12.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	64.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	70.3	6.8
– Net Position:	44,001	-119,542	75,541
– Gross Longs:	478,347	1,313,493	213,125
– Gross Shorts:	434,346	1,433,035	137,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.0	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-30.3	14.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

16 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (11,414 contracts) with Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (6,583 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,612 contracts), Soybeans (-30,385 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle, Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (90 percent), Coffee (88 percent) and Corn (88 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (88.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (92.7 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (17 percent), Wheat (16 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (17.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (30.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-29.8 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (18.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 424,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 462,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	39.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	56.0	10.4
– Net Position:	424,769	-338,472	-86,297
– Gross Longs:	586,274	796,993	124,448
– Gross Shorts:	161,505	1,135,465	210,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	17.6	2.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-14.2	-32.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	51.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-26,526	19,297	7,229
– Gross Longs:	231,941	538,044	78,087
– Gross Shorts:	258,467	518,747	70,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	95.8	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	18.6	3.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	37.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	71.9	3.5
– Net Position:	63,697	-67,169	3,472
– Gross Longs:	78,310	71,130	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	14,613	138,299	6,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.9	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.8	15.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.2	8.2
– Net Position:	6,781	23,383	-30,164
– Gross Longs:	170,362	505,039	44,383
– Gross Shorts:	163,581	481,656	74,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	54.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-18.0	-10.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	55.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.0	4.5
– Net Position:	55,168	-65,153	9,985
– Gross Longs:	124,887	312,914	35,495
– Gross Shorts:	69,719	378,067	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	30.7	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-28.6	32.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	51.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-13,967	-4,408	18,375
– Gross Longs:	102,087	294,109	51,912
– Gross Shorts:	116,054	298,517	33,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.5	-9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	29.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.5	14.1
– Net Position:	113,424	-88,275	-25,149
– Gross Longs:	179,879	108,595	26,597
– Gross Shorts:	66,455	196,870	51,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	14.8	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-9.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.4	9.4
– Net Position:	73,220	-67,641	-5,579
– Gross Longs:	137,087	101,137	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	63,867	168,778	29,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	13.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.8	29.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	36.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-42,565	39,238	3,327
– Gross Longs:	68,832	143,745	16,498
– Gross Shorts:	111,397	104,507	13,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	93.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.9	20.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	40.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,819	-33,051	6,232
– Gross Longs:	40,947	48,369	11,236
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	81,420	5,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	60.1	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.6	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	34.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	21.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-55,941	54,281	1,660
– Gross Longs:	132,148	152,709	35,998
– Gross Shorts:	188,089	98,428	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.4	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-16.3	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,814 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,292 contracts), the VIX (-10,465 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,542 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,966 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (81 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (42.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (52.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (62.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (63.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (80.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (64.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-28.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-17.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (33.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	50.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	35.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-58,995	53,878	5,117
– Gross Longs:	68,455	182,190	30,334
– Gross Shorts:	127,450	128,312	25,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	53.8	99.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	17.1	33.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	68.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	73.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-17,109	-113,610	130,719
– Gross Longs:	333,661	1,436,654	277,921
– Gross Shorts:	350,770	1,550,264	147,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	18.7	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	61.0	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.0	13.0
– Net Position:	2,877	-7,270	4,393
– Gross Longs:	14,179	49,676	14,949
– Gross Shorts:	11,302	56,946	10,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	27.7	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.9	-13.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	56.0	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	64.6	11.0
– Net Position:	13,436	-22,860	9,424
– Gross Longs:	73,511	147,448	38,295
– Gross Shorts:	60,075	170,308	28,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	29.0	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	22.4	-19.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	73.3	5.0
– Net Position:	-32,464	20,253	12,211
– Gross Longs:	41,084	324,238	32,835
– Gross Shorts:	73,548	303,985	20,624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	36.4	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	24.0	-25.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	70.9	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.8	18.7
– Net Position:	-2,212	1,948	264
– Gross Longs:	923	8,080	2,400
– Gross Shorts:	3,135	6,132	2,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	40.1	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-7.5	-16.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	84.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.1	1.6
– Net Position:	-1,792	-2,262	4,054
– Gross Longs:	55,641	369,926	10,865
– Gross Shorts:	57,433	372,188	6,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	23.5	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-34.9	14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

09 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (38,736 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (19,727 contracts), the British Pound (10,349 contracts), the EuroFX (7,990 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,038 contracts), the Swiss Franc (742 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (339 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-12,843 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,478 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,059 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-379 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewal in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions gained for a third consecutive week this week and has risen by a total of +48,179 contracts over these past three weeks.

This renewed sentiment for the yen has pushed the net position (currently at +18,768 contracts) to the most positive level in the past eight weeks. The yen speculator bets had recently spent four weeks in bullish territory in December before dropping back into negative territory in January.

The yen has had extremely bearish speculator positioning over the past four years (basically since March of 2021) and very often had over -100,000 net speculator weekly contracts as policy divergences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan caused the yen exchange rate to drop to multi-decade lows versus the American currency.

The BOJ recently raised their interest rate by 25 basis points in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent as inflation is poised to pickup, according to the BOJ. This increase moved the rate to the highest level since 2008, underscoring the rare move.

The yen exchange rate, overall, has continued to trend near the bottom of its range from the past few years but has managed to gain versus the US Dollar for the past four weeks in a row. The USDJPY currency pair trades at 151.42 to end the week after hitting support right below 159.00 in late-January. Since then, the USDJPY has seen yen strength with a break below support at 155.00 and currently trades around a major support/resistance level around 152.00 that could determine the short-term direction of the pair.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (81 percent) and the Bitcoin (68 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (52 percent), US Dollar Index (37 percent) and the Mexican Peso (35 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (15 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.1 percent)
EuroFX (6.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (81.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.6 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.7 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.7 percent)
EuroFX (3.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-28.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-5.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.7 percent)
Bitcoin (20.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.5	24.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.3	6.3
– Net Position:	14,539	-15,914	1,375
– Gross Longs:	25,203	9,630	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	10,664	25,544	2,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	62.7	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-15.0	-5.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	56.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	50.6	8.5
– Net Position:	-58,614	36,471	22,143
– Gross Longs:	162,554	348,354	74,337
– Gross Shorts:	221,168	311,883	52,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.6	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.4	19.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	54.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	42.3	17.9
– Net Position:	-11,323	25,029	-13,706
– Gross Longs:	65,442	111,619	22,951
– Gross Shorts:	76,765	86,590	36,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	71.3	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.1	-15.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	30.4	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	43.6	16.1
– Net Position:	18,768	-30,683	11,915
– Gross Longs:	104,684	70,418	49,277
– Gross Shorts:	85,916	101,101	37,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.1	17.2	92.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-12.6	43.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	85.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	29.2	21.9
– Net Position:	-42,258	55,303	-13,045
– Gross Longs:	5,242	83,873	8,424
– Gross Shorts:	47,500	28,570	21,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	89.6	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	14.5	21.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -160,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	84.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	35.3	10.4
– Net Position:	-160,444	170,842	-10,398
– Gross Longs:	20,421	293,323	25,707
– Gross Shorts:	180,865	122,481	36,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	86.4	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-7.2	3.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	68.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	15.0
– Net Position:	-75,309	83,501	-8,192
– Gross Longs:	35,330	139,494	22,568
– Gross Shorts:	110,639	55,993	30,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	79.7	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	3.2	4.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -49,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	85.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	24.2	7.2
– Net Position:	-49,090	51,675	-2,585
– Gross Longs:	8,327	71,989	3,459
– Gross Shorts:	57,417	20,314	6,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.8	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	2.8	8.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	54.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	60.6	4.0
– Net Position:	12,262	-9,518	-2,744
– Gross Longs:	61,459	78,564	3,020
– Gross Shorts:	49,197	88,082	5,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	69.3	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	36.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.4	38.1	4.3
– Net Position:	242	-723	481
– Gross Longs:	33,402	21,671	3,007
– Gross Shorts:	33,160	22,394	2,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	48.5	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-21.3	10.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.8	4.7	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.4	7.5	3.6
– Net Position:	786	-918	132
– Gross Longs:	27,570	1,544	1,329
– Gross Shorts:	26,784	2,462	1,197
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	40.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-19.3	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Silver, Platinum & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as all six out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (5,993 contracts) with Platinum (5,602 contracts), Gold (3,099 contracts), Copper (2,376 contracts), Palladium (960 contracts) and with Steel (22 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (95 percent) and Steel (89 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) and Palladium (57 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (95.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (93.9 percent)
Silver (79.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.2 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.4 percent)
Platinum (60.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.6 percent)
Palladium (57.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.1 percent)
Steel (88.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.4 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (21 percent) and Palladium (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Copper (13 percent), Silver (13 percent) and Steel (12 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no lower or negative trend scores this week underscoring the positive sentiment for metals currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.2 percent)
Silver (12.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.2 percent)
Copper (12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (7.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.9 percent)
Palladium (14.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 302,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.8	13.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	74.3	4.4
– Net Position:	302,508	-328,175	25,667
– Gross Longs:	356,500	74,378	49,522
– Gross Shorts:	53,992	402,553	23,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	4.2	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-19.8	-0.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.7	17.3	18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	57.7	7.7
– Net Position:	50,361	-69,007	18,646
– Gross Longs:	83,120	29,564	31,821
– Gross Shorts:	32,759	98,571	13,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	18.1	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-15.5	18.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	35.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	43.5	5.3
– Net Position:	15,421	-18,710	3,289
– Gross Longs:	92,002	83,745	15,692
– Gross Shorts:	76,581	102,455	12,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	54.3	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-9.2	-17.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.4	19.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	51.9	5.6
– Net Position:	18,975	-23,739	4,764
– Gross Longs:	45,676	14,276	8,882
– Gross Shorts:	26,701	38,015	4,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	39.7	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-4.7	-19.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	44.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	12.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-6,124	5,506	618
– Gross Longs:	5,853	7,671	1,955
– Gross Shorts:	11,977	2,165	1,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	43.3	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-11.9	-14.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	66.1	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	60.4	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,763	1,582	181
– Gross Longs:	6,673	18,417	355
– Gross Shorts:	8,436	16,835	174
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	11.8	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-12.6	20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

09 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by 5-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market to gain this week for the bond markets was the Fed Funds with a gain of 30,143 contracts on the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-151,611 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-102,586 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-33,511 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-32,506 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-17,065 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-7,061 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,084 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,024 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (88 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (82 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (3 percent), the Fed Funds (17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (17.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (41.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (53.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (55.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (81.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (93.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (81.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (82.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (88.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (96.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (45 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-32 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-18 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-31.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (7.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (26.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-15.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (44.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (37.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-17.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-27.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -201,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 30,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	71.8	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	59.1	2.1
– Net Position:	-201,853	198,202	3,651
– Gross Longs:	154,511	1,121,079	36,072
– Gross Shorts:	356,364	922,877	32,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	78.1	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.6	29.8	13.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -746,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -102,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -644,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	64.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	57.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-746,850	745,200	1,650
– Gross Longs:	1,176,778	6,523,575	23,679
– Gross Shorts:	1,923,628	5,778,375	22,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	78.1	88.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	18.6	-8.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -32,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	63.7	0.0
– Net Position:	80,461	-82,276	1,815
– Gross Longs:	300,031	746,847	2,155
– Gross Shorts:	219,570	829,123	340
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	6.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.3	11.3	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-45.2	16.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,218,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,201,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	76.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	50.2	2.7
– Net Position:	-1,218,624	1,079,136	139,488
– Gross Longs:	592,217	3,141,260	250,760
– Gross Shorts:	1,810,841	2,062,124	111,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	79.5	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.5	2.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,927,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -151,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,776,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.1	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	57.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-1,927,666	1,813,533	114,133
– Gross Longs:	366,638	5,485,200	430,333
– Gross Shorts:	2,294,304	3,671,667	316,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	96.9	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	10.3	1.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -707,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -700,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	74.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	60.7	7.5
– Net Position:	-707,703	651,566	56,137
– Gross Longs:	743,405	3,628,286	422,857
– Gross Shorts:	1,451,108	2,976,720	366,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	58.5	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	17.3	-5.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -115,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	75.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	68.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-115,563	166,490	-50,927
– Gross Longs:	327,982	1,740,156	226,814
– Gross Shorts:	443,545	1,573,666	277,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	27.9	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-5.7	-10.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	64.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	67.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-4,927	-71,661	76,588
– Gross Longs:	455,777	1,259,191	219,800
– Gross Shorts:	460,704	1,330,852	143,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.8	8.2	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-14.4	15.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -243,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	81.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	68.8	9.0
– Net Position:	-243,616	229,737	13,879
– Gross Longs:	144,838	1,463,002	175,978
– Gross Shorts:	388,454	1,233,265	162,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.5	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	9.4	24.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

09 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (23,817 contracts) with Wheat (23,756 contracts), Corn (18,506 contracts), Soybeans (5,815 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,428 contracts) and Lean Hogs (3,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-8,339 contracts), Coffee (-4,642 contracts), Sugar (-3,675 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,605 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,578 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee, Live Cattle & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (96 percent), Live Cattle (93 percent) and Corn (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent) and Sugar (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Wheat (24 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (92.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.4 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (95.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybeans (55.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.4 percent)
Live Cattle (93.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (78.9 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.4 percent)
Cocoa (46.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.8 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (34 percent) and Corn (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (21 percent), Soybean Meal (19 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-14 percent), Cotton (-12 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (30.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.3 percent)
Sugar (-29.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-31.2 percent)
Coffee (7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybeans (33.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-13.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-21.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.3 percent)
Cocoa (-1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.7 percent)
Wheat (15.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 462,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 443,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	38.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	56.9	10.2
– Net Position:	462,381	-374,564	-87,817
– Gross Longs:	626,001	773,870	118,268
– Gross Shorts:	163,620	1,148,434	206,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	12.8	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-27.5	-35.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	53.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	50.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-33,109	29,745	3,364
– Gross Longs:	227,314	544,960	74,415
– Gross Shorts:	260,423	515,215	71,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.6	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	26.2	-4.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	31.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	71,878	-76,728	4,850
– Gross Longs:	83,066	60,964	11,225
– Gross Shorts:	11,188	137,692	6,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	3.8	98.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-9.0	28.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	55.7	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	56.2	8.5
– Net Position:	37,166	-4,926	-32,240
– Gross Longs:	182,119	495,672	43,118
– Gross Shorts:	144,953	500,598	75,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.3	47.5	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-31.5	-38.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 53,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	54.3	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	64.9	4.4
– Net Position:	53,595	-60,679	7,084
– Gross Longs:	121,346	311,283	32,530
– Gross Shorts:	67,751	371,962	25,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	33.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-21.5	21.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	52.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-691	-15,513	16,204
– Gross Longs:	103,159	297,388	49,293
– Gross Shorts:	103,850	312,901	33,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	71.6	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-16.4	-21.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 116,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	52.0	13.4
– Net Position:	116,439	-91,888	-24,551
– Gross Longs:	199,414	109,040	27,075
– Gross Shorts:	82,975	200,928	51,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	10.4	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-12.6	-10.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	33.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	54.6	9.0
– Net Position:	69,445	-64,565	-4,880
– Gross Longs:	129,010	100,204	22,404
– Gross Shorts:	59,565	164,769	27,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.5	15.6	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	11.5	26.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -50,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	50.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	33.3	4.9
– Net Position:	-50,767	49,214	1,553
– Gross Longs:	64,897	145,912	15,822
– Gross Shorts:	115,664	96,698	14,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	10.3	14.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	35.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	67.4	3.9
– Net Position:	35,390	-41,309	5,919
– Gross Longs:	48,473	45,210	10,952
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	86,519	5,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	51.6	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.0	-6.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	33.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	20.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-67,355	63,681	3,674
– Gross Longs:	130,876	159,160	35,860
– Gross Shorts:	198,231	95,479	32,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	72.0	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-17.1	7.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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