COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (40,321 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (23,817 contracts), the Brazilian Real (20,354 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,805 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (700 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-5,696 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,815 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,510 contracts), the British Pound (-3,269 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,929 contracts) and Bitcoin (-951 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

Highlighting the Currency speculator positions this week was a boost in the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Brazilian Real positions while the US Dollar Index bets fell by the most since the fall.

First off, the Japanese Yen speculator position jumped by over 40,000 contracts this week after it had previously fallen in four out of the previous five weeks. This has a lot to do with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Currency market last week, as the BOJ has been trying to arrest the Japanese Yen’s fall. Currently, the speculator net position for the Japanese Yen contracts remains in a bearish level for a 10th straight week, with the total net position this week at -61,738 net contracts. The BOJ currency intervention has stemmed the slide in the yen for the time being, but this week’s USD/JPY currency pair closed out the week at 156.68.

The Brazilian Real saw its speculator bets jump this week by over 20,000 net contracts. This is a third consecutive week of positive changes and this week’s boost has pushed the net position over 66,000 bullish contracts. This is the highest level for the Brazilian Real contracts since September 30th of 2025, a span of 31 weeks. In the Futures market, the Brazilian Real continues to be on a strong bullish uptrend against the US Dollar, and this week closed at the highest level since February of 2024.

Canadian Dollar contracts continued their strong weekly gains with a third consecutive weekly rise and a boost by over 23,000 contracts this week. This recent positive sentiment for the Canadian Dollar has taken the net speculator bearish standing down to a total of -14,659 net contracts — the best position (least bearish) of the past six weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar cooled off after four consecutive gaining weeks, and this week closed out at a 0.7321 exchange level. The CAD is still in an ascending triangle pattern and would need to rise clean above 0.7400 to the upside for a further bullish break out.

The Australian Dollar net position saw a second straight weekly gain and is now at the highest speculator position of the past five weeks. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculator positioning is in a super strong position, considering it’s near the top of its three-year range with a strength score of 98.5%. The Australian Dollar bets have now been in bullish territory for 15 consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Australian Dollar has continued on a strong uptrend after falling as low as 0.5920 in April of 2025. Since that low, the AUD has ascended by over 20% and now trades at 0.7237 against the US Dollar, the highest level since 2022.

The US Dollar Index saw speculator bets dropped this week by -3,815 contracts and marks the biggest one-week fall since September. The US Dollar Index speculator bets have now declined for four consecutive weeks and have taken the overall net position to a virtual neutral level at just 693 net contracts. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets dipped this week for a second consecutive week, however, it remains in its range that has persisted for almost a year with a low support level of 96.50 and a high resistance level of 100.00 (the USD Index is currently trading at 97.78).

Bitcoin, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real lead major Currency price performances.

This week saw Bitcoin lead the pack in price gains with a modest 1.98% rise on the week. The Mexican Peso came in second with a 1.50% gain, while the Brazilian Real was also higher by 1% with a 1.17% uptick. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by approximately 1% this week, while the Swiss Franc rose by 0.58%.

The Euro gained by 0.47%. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.41%, and the British Pound Sterling rounded out the gainers with a modest uptick of 0.27% on the week.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index tripped by -0.17% this week, while the Japanese Yen was lower by -0.30%. The Canadian Dollar was the biggest negative returner with a -0.67% shortfall.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (78 percent) and Bitcoin (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Japanese Yen (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.3 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (78.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (67.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (88.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (73.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-15 percent), Bitcoin (-13 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (8.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-13.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	30.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	35.7	5.4
– Net Position:	693	-1,569	876
– Gross Longs:	17,048	10,035	2,634
– Gross Shorts:	16,355	11,604	1,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	52.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.3	-2.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	58.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.9	5.8
– Net Position:	32,202	-73,379	41,177
– Gross Longs:	217,474	480,886	88,156
– Gross Shorts:	185,272	554,265	46,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	56.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.1	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,639 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	65.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	41.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-63,908	65,684	-1,776
– Gross Longs:	62,573	180,932	25,560
– Gross Shorts:	126,481	115,248	27,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	85.8	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	1.8	2.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 40,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	52.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	35.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-61,738	59,650	2,088
– Gross Longs:	109,035	186,544	37,725
– Gross Shorts:	170,773	126,894	35,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	66.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,221 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	35.2	20.5
– Net Position:	-34,521	42,861	-8,340
– Gross Longs:	7,145	76,076	11,018
– Gross Shorts:	41,666	33,215	19,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	69.4	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	18.7	-17.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,476 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	49.9	11.9
– Net Position:	-14,659	12,794	1,865
– Gross Longs:	73,650	134,383	30,958
– Gross Shorts:	88,309	121,589	29,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	23.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.7	-3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 6,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,869 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	33.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	70.8	5.4
– Net Position:	78,674	-105,545	26,871
– Gross Longs:	143,214	92,272	42,086
– Gross Shorts:	64,540	197,817	15,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	1.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.9	7.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,322 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	85.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.2	27.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,251	49,327	-1,076
– Gross Longs:	9,063	72,581	3,486
– Gross Shorts:	57,314	23,254	4,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	89.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.3	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,823 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	46.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.7	1.0
– Net Position:	62,127	-66,944	4,817
– Gross Longs:	91,592	87,636	6,627
– Gross Shorts:	29,465	154,580	1,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	52.8	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 20,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,443 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	24.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	78.1	1.0
– Net Position:	66,797	-70,648	3,851
– Gross Longs:	93,500	31,743	5,099
– Gross Shorts:	26,703	102,391	1,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	10.8	42.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-12.6	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,392 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	1.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.3	8.1	4.6
– Net Position:	1,441	-1,539	98
– Gross Longs:	19,301	349	1,184
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	1,888	1,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	22.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	9.1	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 May

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, SOFR 3-Months lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday May 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week as the Cotton speculator level is at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 47 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 100,682 net contracts this week with a gain of 19,741 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Oil speculator level resides at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost of 21 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 168,887 net contracts this week with a fall of -2,925 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the third in the most bullish extreme standings this week with the AUD speculator level also currently at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an advance by 4 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 78,674 net contracts this week with a boost of 6,805 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise higher by 8 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 433,384 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 92,644 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybeans speculator level sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 232,198 net contracts this week with a rise of 38,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level is at just a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -35 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -1,100,455 net contracts this week with a fall of -347,436 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the speculator position was -20,234 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year speculator level resides at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,673,329 net contracts this week with an addition of 35,934 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -24 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -48,251 net contracts this week with a retreat of -1,929 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Next, the British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the GBP speculator level at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -63,908 net contracts this week with a fall of -3,269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a gain of 3,732 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-849 contracts), Platinum (-765 contracts), Copper (-432 contracts), Silver (-268 contracts) and with Palladium (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets stable around +160,000 net contracts

Highlighting the Metals markets today: This week saw speculator bets in Gold rise very modestly by a little under +4,000 net contracts. Gold positioning has stabilized right around the +160,000 to +165,000 net contract standing over the past 15 or so weeks. Previously, Gold bullish contracts had been over 200,000 net contracts week in and week out before falling lower in late January.

Open interest levels for Gold have fallen off dramatically and are around 360,000 contracts this week. The average open interest contracts since the beginning of 2025 have been around 460,000 contracts, illustrating that the market interest has cooled off in these past few months.

The Gold’s futures price closed this week around the $4,730 level and is still in a long-term strong uptrend. It has bounced back by almost 15% from the recent fall in March to the $4,100 level.

Silver leads the Metals markets price performance.

The last five days saw Silver come in with the biggest return in price performance for the overall Metals market. Silver rose by 6.08% for the week and has now notched a 10.86% increase over the past 30 days. Copper came in second with a 4.95% rise on the week and has been higher by 12.77% over the past 30 days.

Gold comes in third with a 2.38% gain on the week and has been just a bit higher at a 1.09% return over the past 30 days.

Platinum followed with a 1.96% gain this week, and Steel rounded out the weekly gainers with a 1.74% rise.

On the downside, Palladium dipped by -3.55%. Palladium is now also down by -0.24% over the past 30 days and has fallen by -26.62% in the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (92 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.1 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.5 percent)
Copper (91.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (92.2 percent)
Platinum (55.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.4 percent)
Palladium (82.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.2 percent)
Steel (84.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (88.7 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (24 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.1 percent)
Silver (-1.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.8 percent)
Copper (23.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.2 percent)
Platinum (4.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.1 percent)
Palladium (-1.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.4 percent)
Steel (-15.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 163,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,571 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	15.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	69.9	3.7
– Net Position:	163,303	-198,935	35,632
– Gross Longs:	211,814	58,230	49,252
– Gross Shorts:	48,511	257,165	13,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	56.5	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	0.4

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,160 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	26.9	26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	68.7	9.5
– Net Position:	23,892	-40,535	16,643
– Gross Longs:	32,965	26,094	25,811
– Gross Shorts:	9,073	66,629	9,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	72.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-0.4	5.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,281 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	66.6	3.7
– Net Position:	62,849	-72,017	9,168
– Gross Longs:	96,261	82,829	17,854
– Gross Shorts:	33,412	154,846	8,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	8.4	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-22.2	2.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,550 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	29.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	66.5	5.4
– Net Position:	17,785	-22,651	4,866
– Gross Longs:	26,668	17,659	8,130
– Gross Shorts:	8,883	40,310	3,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	48.1	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.3	-7.9

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,464 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	39.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	34.5	10.0
– Net Position:	-1,476	775	701
– Gross Longs:	6,402	6,289	2,307
– Gross Shorts:	7,878	5,514	1,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	22.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	4.8	-19.1

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,066 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	64.3	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	94.6	0.2
– Net Position:	11,217	-11,631	414
– Gross Longs:	12,516	24,734	483
– Gross Shorts:	1,299	36,365	69
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	7.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	15.1	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.1	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

10 May

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (100,106 contracts) with the Fed Funds (45,127 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (35,934 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34,850 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (23,868 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-347,436 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-97,991 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-77,320 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-59,287 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads Bond market price performances this week.

In the major Bond markets for the US, the US Treasury Bond saw the biggest uptick this week with a 0.53% increase. The 10-Year Note came in second with a 0.17% edge higher, followed by the Five-Year Bond, which notched up by 0.06%. The One-Month SOFR and the Three-Month SOFR markets were both virtually unchanged but edged up by 0.01%.

The Fed Funds were a minuscule tick lower with a -0.01% decline.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (80 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 5-Year Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (23 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (39 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (60.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (71.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (66.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (36.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (79.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (23.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (50.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (67.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (20.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Fed Funds (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-62.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-42.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-4.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (22.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 45,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,312 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	63.9	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	66.7	1.7
– Net Position:	30,815	-43,823	13,008
– Gross Longs:	232,066	1,019,087	40,483
– Gross Shorts:	201,251	1,062,910	27,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	38.6	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.7	-2.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,100,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -347,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -753,019 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	62.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	53.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-1,100,455	1,102,960	-2,505
– Gross Longs:	1,813,618	7,914,410	46,774
– Gross Shorts:	2,914,073	6,811,450	49,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	99.2	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.5	36.0	-5.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -97,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,204 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	67.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	54.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-158,195	158,160	35
– Gross Longs:	182,424	781,598	1,383
– Gross Shorts:	340,619	623,438	1,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	49.8	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.8	0.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,673,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 35,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,263 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	80.5	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	47.0	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,673,329	1,590,309	83,020
– Gross Longs:	497,399	3,820,890	228,341
– Gross Shorts:	2,170,728	2,230,581	145,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	92.1	10.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.9	0.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,421,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 100,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,521,405 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	80.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	60.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,421,299	1,352,390	68,909
– Gross Longs:	636,574	5,331,093	419,738
– Gross Shorts:	2,057,873	3,978,703	350,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	29.7	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-3.5	12.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -815,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 23,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -839,137 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	77.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	63.5	6.5
– Net Position:	-815,269	747,343	67,926
– Gross Longs:	610,543	4,158,508	418,672
– Gross Shorts:	1,425,812	3,411,165	350,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	65.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	20.7	12.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -77,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,840 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-105,160	234,926	-129,766
– Gross Longs:	228,236	1,968,305	200,190
– Gross Shorts:	333,396	1,733,379	329,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	37.2	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-9.5	-29.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -172,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -59,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,655 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	76.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	71.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-172,942	93,024	79,918
– Gross Longs:	181,128	1,395,908	234,966
– Gross Shorts:	354,070	1,302,884	155,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	69.9	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.5	48.9	-7.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -259,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 34,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,285 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	73.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-259,435	268,886	-9,451
– Gross Longs:	136,694	1,964,862	179,461
– Gross Shorts:	396,129	1,695,976	188,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	45.1	5.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	4.3	-31.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

10 May

COT Energy Charts: Speculators push Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets to lowest since October

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (16,333 contracts) with Gasoline (2,677 contracts) and Heating Oil (2,022 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-13,125 contracts), Bloomberg Index (-1,552 contracts) and Natural Gas (-373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Bearish Bets drop to lowest since October

Highlighting Energy futures markets this week is Brent Crude Oil. This market saw a jump by over 16,000 speculative net contracts this week and this market has seen gains in seven out of the past 10 weeks. The Brent Crude Oil futures market traditionally has a negative net large speculator standing due to a lot of hedging activity. This week, however, the market is close to an almost neutral overall position with a total of -9,224 net contracts. This is the least bearish level for Brent Crude Oil since October 2025. Typically, when bets have fallen this low, the oil price is also low. The last two times the net position has been this low, the Brent Crude Oil price has been trading around $60 per barrel. But due to the Iran war, the oil price is currently over $100 per barrel with perhaps more risk to the upside at the moment.

Energy market prices were down across the board this week.

In the Energy markets, In the Energy markets price performances, we saw lower markets all across the board for the week. Heating Oil dipped by -1.43%, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell by -1.63%.

Gasoline was lower by over 2% this week with a -2.02% decline. Natural Gas was also lower by -2.68%. Brent Oil fell by -6.58%, while WTI Crude Oil was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -7.32% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brent Oil & Gasoline

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (25.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (44.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (49.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.7 percent)
Natural Gas (25.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.8 percent)
Gasoline (52.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (49.2 percent)
Heating Oil (50.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (1.6 percent)

Brent Oil & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (11.9 percent) and Natural Gas (3.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

The Bloomberg Index (-64.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-4.3 percent)
Natural Gas (3.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.5 percent)
Gasoline (-12.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-64.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-62.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 178,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -13,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,911 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	45.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	55.1	2.5
– Net Position:	178,786	-206,150	27,364
– Gross Longs:	381,542	933,442	79,154
– Gross Shorts:	202,756	1,139,592	51,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.8	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.6	-11.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 16,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,557 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	32.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	29.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-9,224	6,203	3,021
– Gross Longs:	71,485	74,079	9,396
– Gross Shorts:	80,709	67,876	6,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	28.6	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-14.1	11.3

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -166,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	35.5	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	26.1	2.6
– Net Position:	-166,646	153,150	13,496
– Gross Longs:	237,674	578,708	55,616
– Gross Shorts:	404,320	425,558	42,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	79.3	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	0.3	-16.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,216 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	47.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	71.4	3.8
– Net Position:	58,893	-73,382	14,489
– Gross Longs:	83,248	149,329	26,330
– Gross Shorts:	24,355	222,711	11,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	38.5	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	10.1	4.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,667 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	47.8	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	59.9	9.2
– Net Position:	5,689	-29,537	23,848
– Gross Longs:	42,178	115,956	46,091
– Gross Shorts:	36,489	145,493	22,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	38.4	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	0.1	10.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,084 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	54.5	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.4	24.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-76,636	76,162	474
– Gross Longs:	111,634	136,162	527
– Gross Shorts:	188,270	60,000	53
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	9.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.9	64.9	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

10 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (92,644 contracts) with Sugar (48,432 contracts), Soybeans (38,259 contracts), Cotton (19,741 contracts), Cocoa (3,409 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,381 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-17,534 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-9,721 contracts), Soybean Meal (-8,387 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,925 contracts) and Coffee (2,599 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

Highlighting the Soft Commodities market this week is Corn, which has been on a spectacular run in speculator positioning. This week, Corn speculator bets jumped by over 92,000 contracts and rose for a third consecutive week. The Corn speculator position has now increased in eight out of the last 11 weeks and has added a whopping +441,219 contracts to its overall standing in just those 11 weeks. This recent climb higher has seen the overall speculator position from a total of -7,835 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s net speculator standing of 433,384 net contracts — marking the highest level for Corn bets in over a year.

Corn’s futures price has been on a steady uptrend since a recent bottom in August of 2025. Since then, the Corn price has been up by roughly 25% and is trading right below its 200-weekly moving average. Corn’s overall price is still down by roughly 70% since 2022, when the height of the Russian-Ukraine War saw the Corn price go parabolic and reach its highest level in 10 years.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities price performances this week.

Leading the price performances for the Soft Commodities on the week was Cocoa, which had a very strong week this week and was only one of two Soft Commodities markets that saw gaining returns this week. Cocoa jumped by 17.87% over the past five days and gained for a third consecutive week. Cocoa’s overall price over the past few years has taken a sharp fall after an incredible run-up that brought the Cocoa future prices over 12,000 in late 2024. Currently, Cocoa’s price has fallen by over 60% since that timeframe but has been rebounding since March.

Next up, Cotton was the only other gainer on the week with a 0.76% gain. On the downside, Soybeans dipped by a virtually unchanged amount of -0.14%, followed by Soybean Meal, which also dipped by -0.16%. Wheat fell by over a percent with a -1.35% decline, followed by Live Cattle, which dipped by -1.51%, while Soybean Oil fell by a similar -1.54%. Corn was next up and fell lower this week with -1.72%. Sugar followed suit with a -1.74% decline, while Lean Hogs dropped by -2.62% on the week. Coffee was the biggest negative returner this week with a -4.26% shortfall.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (99 percent) and Cotton (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (95 percent), Corn (95 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Lean Hogs (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (95.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (82.6 percent)
Sugar (30.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (50.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (95.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (86.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (76.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.5 percent)
Cotton (99.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (87.3 percent)
Cocoa (3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (85.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (100.0 percent)

Cotton, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (47 percent), Soybean Oil (21 percent) and Live Cattle (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent) and Soybeans (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-0.1 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.9 percent)
Sugar (0.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.1 percent)
Coffee (2.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.5 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.0 percent)
Live Cattle (21.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.6 percent)
Cotton (46.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-5.2 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 433,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 92,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,740 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	39.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	58.7	10.4
– Net Position:	433,384	-368,848	-64,536
– Gross Longs:	601,877	752,467	133,696
– Gross Shorts:	168,493	1,121,315	198,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	1.3	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-8.3	-4.0

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 48,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,951 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	49.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	40.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-95,519	84,974	10,545
– Gross Longs:	247,159	481,686	85,327
– Gross Shorts:	342,678	396,712	74,782
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	69.3	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	1.5	-11.1

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,026 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	35.4	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	51.3	4.3
– Net Position:	27,625	-28,056	431
– Gross Longs:	55,703	62,259	7,936
– Gross Shorts:	28,078	90,315	7,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	51.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-1.7	-7.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 232,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 38,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,939 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	43.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	64.4	8.3
– Net Position:	232,198	-204,545	-27,653
– Gross Longs:	303,880	423,322	53,507
– Gross Shorts:	71,682	627,867	81,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	5.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-5.1	17.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 168,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,812 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	40.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	66.8	3.9
– Net Position:	168,887	-182,706	13,819
– Gross Longs:	220,821	288,809	41,182
– Gross Shorts:	51,934	471,515	27,363
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.2	87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.2	2.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 134,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,101 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	41.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	68.9	4.5
– Net Position:	134,714	-157,289	22,575
– Gross Longs:	190,466	239,910	48,705
– Gross Shorts:	55,752	397,199	26,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	6.7	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-2.7	-6.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 103,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,338 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	28.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	52.7	11.7
– Net Position:	103,719	-89,036	-14,683
– Gross Longs:	165,391	100,646	27,527
– Gross Shorts:	61,672	189,682	42,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	13.9	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-24.0	-6.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -9,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,172 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	39.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	40.2	8.4
– Net Position:	6,451	-2,889	-3,562
– Gross Longs:	89,062	124,191	22,980
– Gross Shorts:	82,611	127,080	26,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	71.6	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	28.4	27.3

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 100,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 19,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,941 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	30.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	64.9	2.5
– Net Position:	100,682	-114,931	14,249
– Gross Longs:	144,088	100,805	22,683
– Gross Shorts:	43,406	215,736	8,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-46.9	43.6

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,643 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	51.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	42.1	4.7
– Net Position:	-20,234	18,225	2,009
– Gross Longs:	46,562	102,506	11,501
– Gross Shorts:	66,796	84,281	9,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	96.5	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-1.4	16.3

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 866 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	31.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	29.7	6.8
– Net Position:	-16,668	8,425	8,243
– Gross Longs:	128,830	137,098	37,730
– Gross Shorts:	145,498	128,673	29,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	9.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-6.9	43.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 May

Canadian Dollar Speculator Bets up strongly for 2nd week as CAD price gains for 4th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was a jump by the Canadian Dollar (20,358 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (7,052 contracts), Brazilian Real (2,910 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,132 contracts), Bitcoin (321 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (122 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,600 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,599 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,612 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,948 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-475 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar bets gained strongly for 2nd week as CAD price rises for 4th week

Highlighting the Currency markets this week were the Canadian dollar speculator bets, which rose by over 20,000 contracts this week following last week’s approximate gain of 20,000 contracts as well. Canadian dollar speculators have boosted their positions in the past two weeks following the previous five weeks where speculator bets had declined sharply and brought the overall standing to its lowest level since December. The current standing for speculator bets is still in bearish territory at -38,476 contracts but is at a 67% strength score compared to the past 3-years range illustrating how bearish the CAD has been recently.

The Canadian dollar, as one of the commodity currencies, is typically helped out by higher commodity prices and could see an outlook for a higher upside with higher energy and commodity prices likely to persist going forward. There is also speculation the Bank of Canada (BOC) may be inclined to have a bias of raising interest rates with the economic outlook. The Canadian dollar’s price in the Foreign Exchange market has risen for four consecutive weeks. This week the CAD closed out trading at a 0.7374 exchange rate and above its 200-week moving average. Currently, the CAD is in an ascending triangle pattern with overhead resistance around 0.7400. A break above this could test the highest levels for the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar since September of 2024.

The Australian dollar speculator positions got a boost this week by over 7,000 contracts and halts a three-week streak of declining bullish bets. The overall positioning for the Australian dollar speculators comes in at 71,869 contracts this week, which is an extreme bullish score for the Australian dollar compared to the last three years. The Australian dollar’s strength score is currently at a 94.9% reading compared to these last three years which had seen net positions mainly in bearish territory until January 27th. The Australian dollar currency price in the Foreign Exchange markets has been on a strong bullish run and has risen for five consecutive weeks and in 13 out of the past 15 weeks. The Aussie closed out the week at 0.7204, and this marks the highest weekly price close since May of 2022. The AUD is currently sitting right at resistance in the 0.7200 area and a further break above this could bring 0.7350 into play.

Next up, the Brazilian real rose by roughly 3,000 speculator contracts this week, and has risen for two consecutive weeks, as well as three out of the past four weeks. The real has seen a consistently bullish net contract position dating back to February of 2025. The real currently has a total net standing of 46,443 contracts and the current positioning is at a strength score of 73.7% of its three-year range — bullish, but not extremely bullish as of yet. The BRL price has been in a strong uptrend in the Currency markets and has risen for six out of the past seven weeks. Currently the BRL, which closed at 0.2006 this week, is at the highest weekly close since March of 2024, a span of over two years.

Finally, the US Dollar Index saw a slight decline in its speculative bets this week for the third consecutive week. Right now, the US Dollar Index has a total net position of 4,508. Compared to the past three years, this positioning is almost right down the middle with a 56.3% strength score signalling an almost a neutral position for speculators at this time compared to the past three years. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a range between 96.50 on the downside and with prices being capped around the 100.00 level on the upside. The current pricing is very close to the middle of that range, and we will have to wait to see if the US Dollar Index decisively breaks either of those barriers before evaluating the next levels to be.

Japanese Yen (BOJ Intervention) and Australian Dollar lead Currency markets price performance.

Over the past week, the Japanese Yen was the highest mover in the Foreign Exchange market, with a 1.62% gain over the past five days. The Yen’s sharp gain this week was reportedly helped out by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Currency intervention. This was the first time the BOJ had intervened in the Currency markets in the past couple of years, and this was to stem a slide in the Yen’s performance. The intervention helped cut the US Dollar strength against the Yen as the USD/JPY Currency pair dropped from an exchange rate mid-week over 160.70 to approximately around the 156.00 area. The USD/JPY pair closed the week out at the 157.08 exchange.

Coming in second for the week was the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.83% and has now risen by 4.79% over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, the Australian Dollar has been up by 7.75% against the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar came in next with a 0.59% gain and was followed by the Swiss Franc, which rose by 0.53%. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.45%, while the Brazilian Real was close behind at 0.44%, and the British Pound Sterling was also not too far behind with a 0.38% rise. Rounding out the week for the gainers was the Euro, which edged up by a small 0.13%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.18%, followed by the Mexican Peso, which fell by -0.27%, and Bitcoin came in as the biggest decliner with a -0.57% shortfall.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen the biggest rise with a roughly 15% gain, followed by the Brazilian Real, which is up by 5.86% over the past 30 days. The only market lower over the past 30 days is the US Dollar Index with a -1.91% decline.

Over the past 90 days, the Brazilian Real is the performance leader with an 8.42% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 7.75%. On the downside, the US Dollar Index is lower by -1.14% and is followed by Bitcoin, which is lower over the past 90 days by a modest -0.54%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (97 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (74 percent), Canadian Dollar (68 percent) and the US Dollar Index (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.6 percent)
EuroFX (42.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (67.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.6 percent)
Bitcoin (97.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.7 percent)

Bitcoin & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent) was the leader in the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Canadian Dollar (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (5.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-24.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-40.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (1.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,983 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	44.2	5.9
– Net Position:	4,508	-5,404	896
– Gross Longs:	17,180	8,119	2,687
– Gross Shorts:	12,672	13,523	1,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	41.9	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-1.2	-6.4

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	58.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	68.0	5.9
– Net Position:	35,712	-75,137	39,425
– Gross Longs:	217,091	469,715	86,558
– Gross Shorts:	181,379	544,852	47,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	55.6	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.7	4.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,039 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	66.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	42.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-60,639	64,120	-3,481
– Gross Longs:	59,577	175,790	25,368
– Gross Shorts:	120,216	111,670	28,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	85.2	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-2.4	3.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,460 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	54.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.0	27.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-102,059	99,270	2,789
– Gross Longs:	106,530	201,527	43,285
– Gross Shorts:	208,589	102,257	40,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	76.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	7.4	13.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	79.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.2	33.8	21.7
– Net Position:	-35,221	42,729	-7,508
– Gross Longs:	6,359	74,562	12,960
– Gross Shorts:	41,580	31,833	20,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	69.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	21.4	-13.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:
Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 20,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,834 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	60.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	45.5	11.0
– Net Position:	-38,476	37,143	1,333
– Gross Longs:	66,517	152,035	29,088
– Gross Shorts:	104,993	114,892	27,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	32.8	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	17.5	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 7,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,817 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.4	34.7	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	69.8	6.4
– Net Position:	71,869	-97,385	25,516
– Gross Longs:	136,909	96,356	43,136
– Gross Shorts:	65,040	193,741	17,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	5.1	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-1.6	1.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,454 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	84.4	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	27.5	5.9
– Net Position:	-46,322	47,550	-1,228
– Gross Longs:	9,044	70,524	3,716
– Gross Shorts:	55,366	22,974	4,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	87.6	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.6	-5.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,701 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	44.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	80.6	1.0
– Net Position:	67,823	-72,704	4,881
– Gross Longs:	103,697	90,261	6,932
– Gross Shorts:	35,874	162,965	2,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	48.9	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.5	-0.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,533 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	34.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	68.5	0.6
– Net Position:	46,443	-50,794	4,351
– Gross Longs:	88,492	52,756	5,272
– Gross Shorts:	42,049	103,550	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	25.0	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	1.9	0.9

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,071 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.4	0.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	11.6	5.1
– Net Position:	2,392	-2,332	-60
– Gross Longs:	17,431	175	1,046
– Gross Shorts:	15,039	2,507	1,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.1	4.7	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-10.5	-7.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 May

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Oil, Wheat & Ultra 10-Year Bonds lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 28th.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an advance by 21 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 171,812 net contracts this week and rose to a new all-time high with a gain of 2,731 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance by 47 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered -27,840 net contracts this week with a boost of 45,355 contracts in speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings as well. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a lift of 22 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 866 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 26,403 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 12 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 2,392 net contracts this week with a edge higher of 321 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybean Meal speculator level sits at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 17 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 143,101 net contracts this week with an increase of 6,646 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

On the downside, the Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -23,643 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,220 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -23 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,709,263 net contracts this week with a rise of 34,090 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -27 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -46,322 net contracts this week with a weekly advance of 2,132 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sitting at a 13 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -38 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -2,322 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,761 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the GBP speculator level resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 2 percentage points this week and the speculator position totaled -60,639 net contracts this week with a drop by -8,600 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

26 Apr

Large Currency Speculators raised their Canadian Dollar & Euro Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US Dollar where, for example, a bet for the Euro is a bet that the Euro will rise versus the Dollar while a bet against the Euro will be a bet that the Euro will decline versus the Dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (19,438 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,306 contracts), Mexican Peso (8,747 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,558 contracts), British Pound (2,685 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (824 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,252 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-258 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-187 contracts) and Bitcoin (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar and Euro Bets Rebound This Week

Leading the Currency market speculator positioning this week were strong bets for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar.

First up, the Canadian Dollar positions jumped by 19,438 contracts this week following five consecutive weeks of strong declines. The recent weakness had brought the Canadian Dollar position from a bullish level on March 10 to the most bearish position of the past 18 weeks last week. This week’s rebound halts the slide in net positioning, but the Canadian Dollar position remains in an overall bearish standing at -58,834 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar exchange rate in the Currency markets has risen for three consecutive weeks and closed out this week around the 0.7332 exchange level. The CAD is trading right up against the 200-week moving average currently, and further movement above could see the Canadian Dollar test the 0.7400 major resistance that has capped prices many times dating back to June 2025.

The Euro speculator positioning this week jumped by over 15,000 contracts and follows up last week’s strong gain of over 33,000 contracts. These two weeks of strong gains have brought the overall net standing for the Euro back into bullish territory after spending one week (on April 7) in bearish territory. Previously, the Euro was consistently sitting in strong bullish territory for a time-frame from March 2025 until March 2026, with most weeks above +100,000 contracts. Since March 10th, the Euro positioning took a deep dive and culminated in a negative position on April 7 at -7,541 contracts. With a couple of strong weeks, the position is back above +41,324 contracts this week. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Euro continues to trade within its band of recent action between 1.1500 on the downside for support and 1.1900 on the upside, providing resistance. This week, the Euro fell modestly after three straight weeks of gains and closed out the week at 1.1745 against the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index speculator position continues to be in a small bullish level. The Dollar Index speculator bets have fallen by very small amounts over the past two weeks with declines of -341 contracts and this week’s -187 contracts shortfall. The net position is currently at 4,983 net contracts, and the US Dollar overall positioning has now been in bullish territory for six consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained within a band of support and resistance levels recently with support below at 96.75 and resistance above at 100.00. Currently, US Dollar Index price is trading around 98.36.

The Australian Dollar remains the most bullish of the speculator positioning of the Currencies currently. The AUD strength score (which is a score of today’s position compared to the past 3-years range) sits at an Extreme-Bullish reading at 91.2%. However, the Australian Dollar speculator position has been weakening a bit recently and this week fell for a third consecutive week. The overall net position is at its lowest level of the past six weeks at a total net position of 64,817 contracts but remains above the 2026 (so far) weekly average of 41,083 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Australian Dollar has continued to show its strength as it trades currently at 0.7146. The Aussie has gained for four consecutive weeks and remains near the top of its range and best trading levels since June 2022 (vs the USD).

Bitcoin leads the price gains in Currency performances this week

Bitcoin was the biggest winner on the week for currency price performance returns with a 5.13% increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.53% rise while the New Zealand Dollar came in next with a 0.33% gain. The British Pound was higher by 0.28%. The Canadian Dollar was up by 0.25%, and the US Dollar Index was higher by 0.23%. The Australian Dollar capped off the gainers this week with a 0.22% rise.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc edged lower by -0.15% followed by the Japanese Yen which fell by -0.16%. The Mexican Peso saw lower levels by -0.17%, and the Euro saw a modest shortfall by -0.19% on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and Bitcoin (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent), Canadian Dollar (59 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.1 percent)
EuroFX (44.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (42.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.0 percent)
Bitcoin (90.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.1 percent)

US Dollar Index & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (29 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (15 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-24 percent), Japanese Yen (-15 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.4 percent)
EuroFX (-24.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-42.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-40.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.6 percent)
Bitcoin (15.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,170 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	26.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	45.4	6.3
– Net Position:	4,983	-5,814	831
– Gross Longs:	17,617	8,093	2,750
– Gross Shorts:	12,634	13,907	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	40.7	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-30.1	3.5

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 15,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,018 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	58.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	68.7	5.6
– Net Position:	41,324	-83,663	42,339
– Gross Longs:	217,407	459,844	86,804
– Gross Shorts:	176,083	543,507	44,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	52.7	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	21.0	4.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,724 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	65.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	44.0	11.1
– Net Position:	-52,039	56,839	-4,800
– Gross Longs:	63,086	172,752	24,374
– Gross Shorts:	115,125	115,913	29,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.4	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-11.7	-5.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -11,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,208 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	53.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.7	26.5	11.6
– Net Position:	-94,460	95,467	-1,007
– Gross Longs:	101,386	188,723	39,688
– Gross Shorts:	195,846	93,256	40,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	75.0	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	12.5	9.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,097 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	78.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	32.2	22.0
– Net Position:	-33,273	42,255	-8,982
– Gross Longs:	8,372	71,762	11,159
– Gross Shorts:	41,645	29,507	20,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.4	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-4.4	-21.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 19,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,272 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	62.2	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	39.0	11.5
– Net Position:	-58,834	59,221	-387
– Gross Longs:	60,889	158,814	28,975
– Gross Shorts:	119,723	99,593	29,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	41.7	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.9	41.7	-24.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,075 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	36.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	70.2	6.2
– Net Position:	64,817	-93,198	28,381
– Gross Longs:	128,811	100,168	45,525
– Gross Shorts:	63,994	193,366	17,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	7.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.9	0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,276 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	84.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	25.5	5.4
– Net Position:	-48,454	48,983	-529
– Gross Longs:	7,917	70,056	3,915
– Gross Shorts:	56,371	21,073	4,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	89.2	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.5	-8.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,954 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	43.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	80.9	1.0
– Net Position:	67,701	-72,415	4,714
– Gross Longs:	101,306	85,802	6,695
– Gross Shorts:	33,605	158,217	1,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	49.0	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	3.6	4.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,975 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	24.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	59.0	1.0
– Net Position:	43,533	-47,979	4,446
– Gross Longs:	89,922	33,798	5,849
– Gross Shorts:	46,389	81,777	1,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	27.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	5.0	2.4

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,193 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	0.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.1	9.8	4.2
– Net Position:	2,071	-2,250	179
– Gross Longs:	17,097	194	1,233
– Gross Shorts:	15,026	2,444	1,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	6.5	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-20.7	8.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 Apr

Speculator Extremes: SoyOil, SoyMeal, 2-Year & Bloomberg Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 21st.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 28 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 169,081 net contracts this week with an advance of 22,135 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Soybean Meal speculator level is now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance of 16 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 136,455 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -15,760 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 6 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 64,817 net contracts this week with a small retreat of -258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 15 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,071 net contracts this week with a decline of -122 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise higher by 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -73,195 net contracts this week with an increase of 59,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 2-Year speculator level at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -37 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,743,353 net contracts this week with a retreat of -39,547 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 1 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -19,423 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,171 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was -48,454 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,178 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing as the GBP speculator level sits at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance of 14 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -52,039 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,685 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Next, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 10 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -155,841 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,872 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.