Archive for COT Updates

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Euro Speculator bets go bullish for 3rd week to lead the COT Changes

By InvestMacro

Forex Currency Futures Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

This data is through Tuesday and one day before the US Federal Reserve lifted the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3 to 3.25 percent.

Euro & British pound lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (45,286 contracts) with the Australian dollar (17,294 contracts), the British pound sterling (13,243 contracts), the Swiss franc (565 contracts) and Bitcoin (451 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-10,369 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-7,738 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-7,288 contracts), the Mexican peso (-2,652 contracts), the Japanese yen (-588 contracts) and the Brazilian real (-584 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Forex data this week was the sharp change in speculator positioning for the Euro again this week. The speculative positioning for the Euro jumped by a total of +45,286 contracts this week following last week’s gain of +24,512 contracts and a rise of +11,327 contracts in the week before that.

Overall, Euro speculator positions have risen by +81,125 contracts in just the past three weeks and have now taken the speculator standing out of bearish territory for the first time in fifteen weeks (current net position of +33,449 contracts). This is a surprising turnabout for this market because speculators (especially in currencies) have tended to be trend-followers historically. They buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling.

The Euro has been on a historic decline with prices hitting levels below parity that have not been touched for approximately twenty years. However, the Euro futures speculators have been going the opposite way and increasing their bullish positioning as the currency falls. Will this positioning hold up? Are the speculators buying at the right time (betting on catching the low)? These interesting questions will resolve themselves in the future but it is an example of a current situation that shows that markets and traders can change their tune or flip usual behavior on its head, at least in the short-term.

The Euro price, meanwhile, followed through lower to close out the week. The EURUSD currency pair fell by more than 3 percent and ended the week at the 0.9692 exchange rate – the lowest level since October of 2002.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index54,2927627,93172-30,775272,84448
EUR657,9526333,44945-52,3106118,8616
GBP266,29577-54,8432273,48884-18,6458
JPY250,89281-81,2801997,51383-16,23320
CHF40,93723-6,7403912,98664-6,24636
CAD160,314372,0564289269-2,94824
AUD150,54445-40,5564752,12858-11,57224
NZD47,88439-12,5895016,79156-4,2023
MXN172,65036-28,0331523,741834,29261
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,5004232,36982-34,071181,70285
Bitcoin13,8808057787-812023518

 


Bitcoin and Brazilian Real lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (87.0 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) lead the currency markets this week near the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). The US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish positions.

 


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.4 percent)
EuroFX (45.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (31.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.8 percent)
Bitcoin (87.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.1 percent)

Brazilian Real, Euro and Aussie lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (20.9 percent), the Australian Dollar (15.8 percent), Bitcoin (14.1 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent),  Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) were the leaders in the downside trend scores this week.

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.1 percent)
EuroFX (20.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (33.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.24.110.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.760.84.9
– Net Position:27,931-30,7752,844
– Gross Longs:45,7042,2265,479
– Gross Shorts:17,77333,0012,635
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.1 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.526.947.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.918.0-6.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 45,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.453.911.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.361.98.6
– Net Position:33,449-52,31018,861
– Gross Longs:206,564354,89175,546
– Gross Shorts:173,115407,20156,685
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.361.25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-18.9-2.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.574.18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.146.515.2
– Net Position:-54,84373,488-18,645
– Gross Longs:41,289197,34621,738
– Gross Shorts:96,132123,85840,383
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.984.08.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.514.6-2.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -81,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.975.88.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.337.015.4
– Net Position:-81,28097,513-16,233
– Gross Longs:34,767190,26722,337
– Gross Shorts:116,04792,75438,570
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.883.220.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.629.5-8.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.054.525.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.422.840.7
– Net Position:-6,74012,986-6,246
– Gross Longs:8,16722,30910,421
– Gross Shorts:14,9079,32316,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.464.236.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-10.311.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.945.721.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.645.223.0
– Net Position:2,056892-2,948
– Gross Longs:47,91373,29833,975
– Gross Shorts:45,85772,40636,923
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.769.524.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.525.5-23.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.861.710.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.727.117.9
– Net Position:-40,55652,128-11,572
– Gross Longs:38,79792,90015,434
– Gross Shorts:79,35340,77227,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.257.824.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-5.5-23.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.369.85.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.634.714.1
– Net Position:-12,58916,791-4,202
– Gross Longs:11,64633,4082,544
– Gross Shorts:24,23516,6176,746
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.156.33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.719.6-5.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.038.94.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.225.21.8
– Net Position:-28,03323,7414,292
– Gross Longs:96,67167,2017,445
– Gross Shorts:124,70443,4603,153
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.482.761.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.2-0.45.9

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.512.46.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.778.62.7
– Net Position:32,369-34,0711,702
– Gross Longs:41,9796,4103,109
– Gross Shorts:9,61040,4811,407
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.218.084.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-29.4-5.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.41.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.27.66.3
– Net Position:577-812235
– Gross Longs:11,1572451,107
– Gross Shorts:10,5801,057872
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.025.018.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.1-36.0-1.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Soybean Meal and Gold Top Bullish & Bearish COT Speculator Extremes Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years using a range from 0 to 100. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. You can compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data tables or cot leaders table.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

soybean meal speculator extreme levels

Soybean Meal comes in at the most bullish extreme standing this week as speculator bets have been on a strong rise in this market. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently right near the top of its 3-year range with at a 97.9 percent score.

Overall, the Soybean Meal position of +126,470 net speculator contracts is the most bullish position of the past twenty-six weeks.


Bitcoin

bitcoin speculator extreme positions

The Bitcoin speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled 577 net contracts this week which was a change by 451 contracts from last week.


Brazilian Real

Brazilian Real Speculator Extreme

The Brazil Real speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week as traders have been adding to their bullish positioning in recent weeks. The BRL speculator level is now at an 82 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 32,369 net contracts this week and saw a small dip by -584 contracts from last week. The speculator gross long position was a total of 41,979 contracts versus the total speculator gross short position of 9,610 contracts.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gold

gold cot speculator extreme

The Gold speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as traders have been bailing sharply out of their futures positions. The Gold speculator level has fallen to a zero percent score of its 3-year range. This means that speculator sentiment is at its lowest level of the past three years currently.

The speculator position was 65,722 net contracts this week, a weekly drop of -31,622 contracts from last week and the lowest level in the past 178 weeks.


Russell 2000 Mini

Russell 2000 Mini Speculator Extremes Positions

The Russell 2000 Mini stock market is the next up in bearish extreme positioning this week. The Russell 2000 Mini is at just a 7.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

Speculative traders have been increasing their bearish bets for the Russell Mini for three straight weeks and the current net position (-106,838 net contracts) has now fallen to the most bearish level of the past five weeks.


WTI Crude Oil

wti crude cot speculator extreme

The WTI Crude Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at an 8 percent score out of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,878 net contracts this week which was a change by 12,821 contracts from last week.


5-Year Bond

five year bond cot speculator extreme

The 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as fourth most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year speculator level resides at an 11 percent score out of its 3-year range and the overall 5-Year Bond net position has been in a bearish position since April of 2021.

The overall net speculator position was a total of -493,804 net contracts this week and rose by a total of +27,655 contracts from last week.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

Large drop in Gold Speculator bets leads COT Metals Changes

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Large drop in Gold bets leads Weekly Speculator Changes

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher overall this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (4,269 contracts) with Silver (3,000 contracts) and Palladium (192 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-31,622 contracts) with Copper (-1,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the sharp and continued decline in the Gold futures bets. Speculators dropped their Gold net positions this week by largest one-week amount in the past thirty-three weeks. The Gold position has now fallen for six straight weeks and by a total of -77,129 contracts over that 6-week time period. This bearishness has pushed the overall net positioning to a total of just +65,722 contracts, marking the lowest overall standing for Gold since April 23rd of 2019, a span of 178 weeks. The current investing environment has been a challenging one for Gold and the futures price this week touched the lowest level since April of 2020. Gold closed the week down over 1.6% and right around the $1,655.60 level.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 


Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.7 percent) leads the metals markets with a score that is just outside an extreme bearish position of under 20 percent.

All of the other metals markets we cover continue to have scores under 20 percent with Gold at the lowest with 0.0 percent or the lowest level in three years. Silver (12.3 percent) is up over three percent from last week followed by Platinum (12.3 percent) and Palladium (16.8 percent). Platinum and Palladium are also higher than last week’s scores.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (12.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (21.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (12.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.6 percent)
Palladium (16.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Palladium (5.0 percent) and Platinum (2.1 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-26.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores with a big negative jump from last week’s -9.4 percent trend score and is followed by Silver at a trend score of -5.0 percent.

Metals Speculator Strength Trend (6-Weeks)
Move Statistics:
Gold (-26.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.4 percent)
Silver (-5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.2 percent)
Copper (6.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.9 percent)
Palladium (5.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)


Individual COT Metals Market Charts:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.730.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.746.36.6
– Net Position:65,722-75,4289,706
– Gross Longs:214,557141,86240,500
– Gross Shorts:148,835217,29030,794
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.825.5-5.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.638.316.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.842.610.7
– Net Position:-1,640-5,6297,269
– Gross Longs:52,32350,66121,383
– Gross Shorts:53,96356,29014,114
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.389.94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.07.5-16.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.750.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.136.59.9
– Net Position:-20,28623,215-2,929
– Gross Longs:46,77382,69313,179
– Gross Shorts:67,05959,47816,108
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.781.68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.4-3.3-21.4

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.138.611.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.347.36.9
– Net Position:2,390-5,4963,106
– Gross Longs:27,75624,2817,432
– Gross Shorts:25,36629,7774,326
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.389.15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-1.8-1.4

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.959.915.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.938.918.5
– Net Position:-1,0811,261-180
– Gross Longs:1,3713,592930
– Gross Shorts:2,4522,3311,110
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.881.833.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-4.4-6.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond Speculator bets rebounded before Fed Hikes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond bets rebound in Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (653,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (123,299 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (27,655 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,766 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-23,797 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-22,022 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-19,316 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-4,568 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data this week was the rebound in both the Eurodollar and the 10-Year Bonds positioning. Both of these bond markets continue to have very bearish speculator positions and it has been that way since global central banks started to get more hawkish in raising their benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

The Eurodollar turned from a bullish speculator position to bearish in May of 2021 while the 10-Year saw its speculative positioning flip bullish to bearish in October of 2021.

This week saw sharp gains for each of these markets with the Eurodollar jumping by a total of +653,551 net contracts and the 10-Year by +123,299 net contracts.

The bonds data was heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming out the next day that resulted in a 75 basis point hike. This likely prompted traders to take off positions that were deemed risky or to try and position for possible surprise outcomes of the Fed meeting.

The Eurodollar speculative change data for that Tuesday was the result of speculators sharply dropping their gross short positions by a total of -709,309 contracts. This is compared to a -55,758 contract decline in the gross long positions.

The 10-Year change, meanwhile, was the result of speculators raising their gross long positions by a total of +100,016 contracts in addition to reducing their gross short contracts by -23,283 to get the weekly net change of 123,299 contracts.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar8,320,3650-2,223,771122,509,93186-286,16041
FedFunds1,719,1985824,16443-17,27358-6,89142
2-Year2,020,40211-342,41513438,181100-95,7669
Long T-Bond1,235,65251-99,5395278,9583920,58169
10-Year3,700,92944-229,59038342,34863-112,75853
5-Year3,974,32150-493,80411639,72891-145,92441

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range. The Fed Funds (42.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (10.8 percent), the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (45.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) and the Fed Funds (2.9 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-52.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.7 percent)


Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,223,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 653,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,877,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.769.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.439.28.2
– Net Position:-2,223,7712,509,931-286,160
– Gross Longs:556,5375,772,986398,527
– Gross Shorts:2,780,3083,263,055684,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.285.941.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-12.47.4

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.771.72.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.372.72.7
– Net Position:24,164-17,273-6,891
– Gross Longs:217,6311,232,60139,438
– Gross Shorts:193,4671,249,87446,329
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.657.842.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-3.513.7

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -342,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -358,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.983.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.861.912.4
– Net Position:-342,415438,181-95,766
– Gross Longs:139,3581,688,474154,106
– Gross Shorts:481,7731,250,293249,872
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.1100.08.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.440.5-18.2

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -493,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.784.77.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.168.611.0
– Net Position:-493,804639,728-145,924
– Gross Longs:266,4523,366,448291,033
– Gross Shorts:760,2562,726,720436,957
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.891.340.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.619.3-4.3

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -229,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.777.59.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.968.212.1
– Net Position:-229,590342,348-112,758
– Gross Longs:397,0502,868,123334,645
– Gross Shorts:626,6402,525,775447,403
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.562.653.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-5.2-3.1

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.381.19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.470.018.0
– Net Position:-28,808152,285-123,477
– Gross Longs:113,6571,109,324123,083
– Gross Shorts:142,465957,039246,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.379.445.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-1.3-8.3

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -99,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.277.113.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.270.712.2
– Net Position:-99,53978,95820,581
– Gross Longs:76,399952,947170,936
– Gross Shorts:175,938873,989150,355
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.238.868.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.919.8-2.9

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -365,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.183.210.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.659.48.1
– Net Position:-365,913330,14335,770
– Gross Longs:71,3061,152,370147,949
– Gross Shorts:437,219822,227112,179
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.976.554.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.90.03.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Soybean Meal Bullish Speculator bets leads weekly COT Soft Commodities changes

By InvestMacro

Soft Commodities Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soybean Meal leads positive Weekly Speculator Changes while Sugar see weekly drop

Soft Commodities Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (12,293 contracts) with Corn (11,108 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,953 contracts), Wheat (4,099 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,830 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,947 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-30,985 contracts) with Soybeans (-7,337 contracts), Cotton (-4,086 contracts), Coffee (-1,195 contracts) and Cocoa (-67 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Soft Commodities data is the gains in Soybean Meal speculator bets. Speculative net positions rose for a second straight week and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. This recent bullishness has pushed Soybean Meal net positions to the highest level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to March 22nd of this year. The speculator positioning for this market currently represents the highest strength score among all the futures markets (50+ markets) we cover with a 97.9 percent score and an extreme bullish reading.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (74.3 percent), Corn (69.1 percent) and Live Cattle (67.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (11.0 percent) and Wheat (13.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Soft Commodities Speculator Strength Scores
Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (67.7 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.7 percent)
Coffee (74.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (75.4 percent)
Soybeans (39.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.0 percent)
Live Cattle (67.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.4 percent)
Cotton (46.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (49.3 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (27.3 percent) and Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) sentiment have led the positive moves  over the past six weeks. Corn (12.1 percent), Coffee (9.2 percent) and Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-1.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the next markets with lower trend scores being Wheat (-0.8 percent), Cocoa (-0.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent).

Soft Commodities Strength Score Trends (6 Week)
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (2.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.0 percent)
Coffee (9.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-1.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (39.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cotton (5.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-0.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.6 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 305,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.544.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.662.613.6
– Net Position:305,677-241,238-64,439
– Gross Longs:432,909591,425116,001
– Gross Shorts:127,232832,663180,440
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.137.56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.1-11.5-8.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 37,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -30,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.057.08.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.061.88.9
– Net Position:37,345-35,860-1,485
– Gross Longs:164,043424,44364,709
– Gross Shorts:126,698460,30366,194
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.361.36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-1.0-7.5

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.447.44.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.969.93.7
– Net Position:41,072-42,9981,926
– Gross Longs:52,37790,7269,048
– Gross Shorts:11,305133,7247,122
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.330.217.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-10.610.2

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.354.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.463.010.7
– Net Position:84,773-55,485-29,288
– Gross Longs:159,789358,17240,819
– Gross Shorts:75,016413,65770,107
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.469.621.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.32.3-5.7

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.150.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.966.85.6
– Net Position:57,411-66,7409,329
– Gross Longs:89,528203,40331,920
– Gross Shorts:32,117270,14322,591
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.458.248.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.316.3

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.239.912.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.078.66.4
– Net Position:126,470-151,85425,384
– Gross Longs:138,080156,67750,445
– Gross Shorts:11,610308,53125,061
– Long to Short Ratio:11.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.94.064.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-8.712.2

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.232.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.754.112.7
– Net Position:70,367-65,032-5,335
– Gross Longs:120,43296,99832,801
– Gross Shorts:50,065162,03038,136
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.624.275.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.3-24.1-17.4

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.834.39.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.854.313.3
– Net Position:50,115-41,565-8,550
– Gross Longs:89,17871,38519,095
– Gross Shorts:39,063112,95027,645
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.344.452.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.12.8-11.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.147.56.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.770.54.1
– Net Position:43,954-49,7135,759
– Gross Longs:71,269102,27614,638
– Gross Shorts:27,315151,9898,879
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.553.847.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-6.919.3

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.746.34.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.745.43.5
– Net Position:-5,9412,7793,162
– Gross Longs:97,755138,57213,754
– Gross Shorts:103,696135,79310,592
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.090.328.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.40.6-2.5

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.039.69.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.536.112.0
– Net Position:-4,0299,982-5,953
– Gross Longs:88,644113,05528,213
– Gross Shorts:92,673103,07334,166
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.873.979.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.80.12.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

S&P500 Mini Futures led the Stock Market Speculator Bets before Fed Rate hike

By InvestMacro

Stock Market Open Interest

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT data this week is from the day before the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate 75 basis points to the 3 to 3.25 percent range. This data shows the trader positioning prior to the rate hike and considering the way the stock markets have gone since Wednesday, positions could have been reversed shortly after.

S&P500 Mini & VIX lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT stock market speculator bets were slightly lower through Tuesday as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (61,553 contracts) with the VIX (16,728 contracts) and MSCI EAFE Mini (1,723 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq Mini (-8,321 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-7,686 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,748 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data was the SP500 Mini speculator bets that jumped this week by over +60,000 contracts. This was the fourth week in the past five weeks that bets had improved for the SP-Mini. The positioning was likely heavily influenced by the Fed interest rate decision coming the day after (Wednesday) the data was collected. Digging into the data showed that the positive result for the SP500 Mini net positioning was due to a large number of traders reducing their gross short positions (by -75,190 contracts) on Tuesday. Speculators also reduced their gross long positions but by a much smaller number for the week (by -13,637 contracts). Overall, the SP500 Mini net position at -219,451 contracts remains extremely bearish and has been in a negative bearish position for the past fourteen straight weeks, dating back to June 21st.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,141,0221-219,45116313,69892-94,2477
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini271,815553,4857721,58240-25,0674
DowJones-Mini65,49021-15,4341815,84080-40636
VIX345,34140-81,7986890,84233-9,04448
Nikkei 225 Yen42,355181043418,61174-18,71536

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) and the VIX (68.3 percent) lead the stock markets for the week. The Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) comes in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are all in extreme bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Stock Strength Scores

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (81.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (22.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (8.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) followed by the DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent).

Stocks Strength Trends

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-9.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-7.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)


Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.056.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.730.38.9
– Net Position:-81,79890,842-9,044
– Gross Longs:45,066195,41321,807
– Gross Shorts:126,864104,57130,851
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.333.347.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-6.0-20.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -219,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.378.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.663.913.0
– Net Position:-219,451313,698-94,247
– Gross Longs:221,1581,681,942184,903
– Gross Shorts:440,6091,368,244279,150
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.592.36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.60.2-5.5

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.458.417.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.034.218.5
– Net Position:-15,43415,840-406
– Gross Longs:15,31638,24011,687
– Gross Shorts:30,75022,40012,093
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.880.236.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.6-1.821.7

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.160.910.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.853.019.7
– Net Position:3,48521,582-25,067
– Gross Longs:73,741165,61928,531
– Gross Shorts:70,256144,03753,598
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.039.84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.814.0-9.9

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.188.74.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.368.34.3
– Net Position:-106,838107,880-1,042
– Gross Longs:32,486470,31921,997
– Gross Shorts:139,324362,43923,039
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.491.624.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-5.010.9

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.392.12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.388.51.7
– Net Position:-15,70914,2601,449
– Gross Longs:20,659360,9398,009
– Gross Shorts:36,368346,6796,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.478.931.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.8-6.7-7.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

WTI Crude Oil leads Energy Speculator Bet Changes this week

By InvestMacro

Energy Futures Open Interest OI Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil leads the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were a little higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (12,821 contracts) with Gasoline (1,481 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (1,120 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,996 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,967 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) and Heating Oil (63.2 percent) lead the energy category this week and are the only two markets above their midpoint of the past three years (50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (19.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent). Natural Gas (31.8 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) are the next lowest strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.7 percent)
Natural Gas (31.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (34.8 percent)
Gasoline (19.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.6 percent)
Heating Oil (63.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.2 percent)
Gasoline (1.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-5.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.4 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.139.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.957.43.5
– Net Position:239,878-261,56821,690
– Gross Longs:342,588589,44573,243
– Gross Shorts:102,710851,01351,553
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.793.736.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-6.3-9.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.653.74.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.831.34.0
– Net Position:-37,90336,7321,171
– Gross Longs:25,66388,0067,706
– Gross Shorts:63,56651,2746,535
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.654.425.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.27.2-8.5

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -155,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.943.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.230.83.3
– Net Position:-155,711121,30834,403
– Gross Longs:153,110417,43166,185
– Gross Shorts:308,821296,12331,782
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.869.261.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.110.9-10.1

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.549.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.168.56.8
– Net Position:47,073-48,1921,119
– Gross Longs:77,904126,88718,448
– Gross Shorts:30,831175,07917,329
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.185.120.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.62.0-24.2

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.854.713.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.063.69.3
– Net Position:14,097-25,94111,844
– Gross Longs:40,428160,16539,038
– Gross Shorts:26,331186,10627,194
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.243.639.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.311.2-0.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.270.00.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.355.30.1
– Net Position:-10,31710,031286
– Gross Longs:17,20047,853361
– Gross Shorts:27,51737,82275
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 14.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.031.920.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-9.00.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index62,0779335,66984-38,380152,71146
EUR742,244100-11,83731-11,4237323,26013
GBP303,965100-68,0861187,32592-19,2397
JPY281,716100-80,6921998,29984-17,60718
CHF44,85331-7,3053816,51270-9,20726
CAD149,5563012,42553-13,476571,05132
AUD182,28769-57,8503167,01869-9,16830
NZD51,07946-5,301629,40845-4,1074
MXN208,40353-25,3811721,333824,04860
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,5824232,95383-34,577181,62484
Bitcoin13,0897412679-320019417

 


Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)


Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.99.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.470.94.2
– Net Position:35,669-38,3802,711
– Gross Longs:48,9845,6475,342
– Gross Shorts:13,31544,0272,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.846.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.16.0-1.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.055.312.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.656.88.8
– Net Position:-11,837-11,42323,260
– Gross Longs:207,778410,36488,806
– Gross Shorts:219,615421,78765,546
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.472.812.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-7.6-0.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.576.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.947.713.3
– Net Position:-68,08687,325-19,239
– Gross Longs:41,129232,34621,161
– Gross Shorts:109,215145,02140,400
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.992.47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.9-7.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.075.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.640.514.5
– Net Position:-80,69298,299-17,607
– Gross Longs:39,323212,37523,186
– Gross Shorts:120,015114,07640,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.283.617.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.423.4-20.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.260.220.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.523.441.4
– Net Position:-7,30516,512-9,207
– Gross Longs:7,70426,9889,355
– Gross Shorts:15,00910,47618,562
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.069.826.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-10.82.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.244.720.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.953.720.0
– Net Position:12,425-13,4761,051
– Gross Longs:48,10266,86630,933
– Gross Shorts:35,67780,34229,882
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.357.532.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.814.1-18.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.066.012.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.829.317.1
– Net Position:-57,85067,018-9,168
– Gross Longs:29,218120,39322,049
– Gross Shorts:87,06853,37531,217
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.268.930.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.83.7-7.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.153.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.535.312.9
– Net Position:-5,3019,408-4,107
– Gross Longs:17,94927,4582,498
– Gross Shorts:23,25018,0506,605
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.444.94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.0-9.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.842.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.032.61.6
– Net Position:-25,38121,3334,048
– Gross Longs:103,77289,2607,469
– Gross Shorts:129,15367,9273,421
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.581.760.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.37.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.812.06.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.979.03.1
– Net Position:32,953-34,5771,624
– Gross Longs:42,1926,1863,203
– Gross Shorts:9,23940,7631,579
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.817.583.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-33.2-0.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.44.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.56.65.7
– Net Position:126-320194
– Gross Longs:10,268546944
– Gross Shorts:10,142866750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.149.017.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-27.4-3.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 


Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.


Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.727.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.751.35.8
– Net Position:97,344-110,93813,594
– Gross Longs:225,932126,95040,556
– Gross Shorts:128,588237,88826,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.899.19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.38.96.3

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.438.216.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.840.110.8
– Net Position:-4,640-2,5517,191
– Gross Longs:53,37351,82221,808
– Gross Shorts:58,01354,37314,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.092.83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.26.2-4.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.249.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.336.89.7
– Net Position:-18,98620,512-1,526
– Gross Longs:44,57478,68213,738
– Gross Shorts:63,56058,17015,264
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.779.616.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-7.3

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.638.611.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.341.65.3
– Net Position:-1,879-2,0513,930
– Gross Longs:30,55226,4737,567
– Gross Shorts:32,43128,5243,637
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.416.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.4-4.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.761.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.217.9
– Net Position:-1,2731,455-182
– Gross Longs:1,3823,720910
– Gross Shorts:2,6552,2651,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.782.933.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-7.20.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Weekly Bonds Speculator bets led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (29,311 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (23,388 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (15,926 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (10,818 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-94,668 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-31,439 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-15,568 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-9,754 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,494,35913-2,877,32203,227,08299-349,76027
FedFunds1,585,4274847,96146-33,14956-14,81222
2-Year2,008,78010-358,18110436,181100-78,00016
Long T-Bond1,225,02449-94,9715466,5283428,44375
10-Year3,639,62139-352,88919462,61377-109,72454
5-Year3,982,52750-521,4597676,94996-155,49038

 


US Treasury Bond at top of Bond Market Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) led the bonds markets and is the only market above its 3-Year midpoint (above 50 percent). The Fed Funds (45.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) come in as the next highest bond market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.2 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent), the 2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) come in as the lowest markets and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends show 2-Year Bond on sharp downtrend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Fed Funds (6.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent), US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-47.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-26.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,877,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -94,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,782,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.471.44.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.837.48.1
– Net Position:-2,877,3223,227,082-349,760
– Gross Longs:612,2956,777,674415,183
– Gross Shorts:3,489,6173,550,592764,943
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.298.727.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.71.60.3

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.470.02.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.472.13.3
– Net Position:47,961-33,149-14,812
– Gross Longs:228,5681,110,14137,571
– Gross Shorts:180,6071,143,29052,383
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.555.922.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-5.7-8.5

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -358,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -31,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -326,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.085.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.863.911.0
– Net Position:-358,181436,181-78,000
– Gross Longs:100,1961,720,285142,700
– Gross Shorts:458,3771,284,104220,700
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.9100.016.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-52.248.12.2

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -505,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.984.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.067.511.4
– Net Position:-521,459676,949-155,490
– Gross Longs:276,6683,365,483299,655
– Gross Shorts:798,1272,688,534455,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.795.838.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.130.0-16.6

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.279.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.967.112.3
– Net Position:-352,889462,613-109,724
– Gross Longs:297,0342,903,201336,640
– Gross Shorts:649,9232,440,588446,364
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.876.854.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.79.5-5.4

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.379.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.870.617.0
– Net Position:-6,786114,915-108,129
– Gross Longs:128,4331,087,797126,105
– Gross Shorts:135,219972,882234,234
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.069.855.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-9.65.3

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -94,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.076.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.871.111.7
– Net Position:-94,97166,52828,443
– Gross Longs:73,918937,965171,546
– Gross Shorts:168,889871,437143,103
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.734.375.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.78.312.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -346,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -357,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.882.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.959.58.2
– Net Position:-346,597310,61235,985
– Gross Longs:79,3751,129,862148,787
– Gross Shorts:425,972819,250112,802
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.867.054.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.31.3-5.9

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.