COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets into Bearish Territory

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the US Dollar Index (1,830 contracts) with Bitcoin (287 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,964 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-20,870 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-12,616 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-10,693 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,048 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-7,487 contracts), the British Pound (-3,689 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-823 contracts), and with the Mexican Peso (-213 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets fall into Bearish Territory

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positioning this week was the weakness in the Euro speculator positions. Euro bets fell this week by -8,048 contracts and this was the eighth consecutive week that the Euro speculator positions declined. This has been a swift turnaround for the Euro, coming from a strong bullish position into a new negative bearish level. The speculator bets were as high as +180,305 contracts on February 10th and have fallen all the way to this week’s new negative position of -7,541 contracts. This is an eight-week total decline by -187,846 net positions and marks the first bearish position in the Euro speculator positions since March 4, 2025, a span of 57 weeks.

The Euro sentiment has sold off sharply, but in the Foreign Exchange markets, the Euro price has not fared too badly and closed this week at 1.1766. Euro positions have now been in a range dating back to June 2025 between 1.1500 on the downside to a topside resistance level of 1.1935 approximately. We’ve not seen a clear break of these two levels since June.

The Canadian Dollar also saw speculator weakness again this week and fell by over -22,000 contracts. This is the fourth week of bearish contracts for the Canadian Dollar positioning and has now pushed the overall net position to -55,648 net contracts, which marks the most bearish position since December 23rd. Canadian Dollar contracts had seen an overall bullish level from February 3rd until March 17th of this year before retreating back into bearish territory. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar rebounded this week after falling for four consecutive weeks and closed out the week at the exchange rate (against the US Dollar) of 0.7252. The Canadian Dollar is currently under its 200-week moving average and is trading in an ascending triangle pattern with a topside resistance of around 0.7400 while support underneath can be found at 0.7200.

The US Dollar Index saw a gain in bullish positions this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time out of the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index has now been in an overall bullish level for the fourth consecutive week and has gone from a position of -5,882 contracts on March 10 to this week’s net position of 5,511 net contracts, which is a change of +11,393 contracts in just the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index pricing, however, has continued to be stuck in a range from 98.00 on the low side to 100.00 on the upside. The DXY has been in this range for the past six weeks, oscillating between the higher side and the lower side, and this week closed out at 98.44.

Bitcoin and the Mexican Peso lead Currency prices this week

In the Currency Markets, Bitcoin, although a cryptocurrency, rose by 6.20% for the week. The Mexican Peso was up by 3.27% over the past five days. Next up, the Brazilian Real advanced by 2.94% on the week, followed by the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 2.78% and 2.75%, respectively. The British Pound was up by 2.14%, while the Euro also saw a boost of 1.90%. The Swiss Franc advanced higher by 1.54% and was followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw an increase of 0.77%. The Japanese Yen rounded out the gainers with a 0.30% uptick.

The only market that saw a decline on the week was the US Dollar Index, which fell by -1.54%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (94 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Canadian Dollar (60 percent) and the US Dollar Index (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (24 percent), the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (59.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (60.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.3 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-63 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-36 percent), Japanese Yen (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (19.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-62.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-66.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-4.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-25.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.1 percent)
Bitcoin (27.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,681 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.1	21.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.9	6.4
– Net Position:	5,511	-6,675	1,164
– Gross Longs:	23,084	7,926	3,501
– Gross Shorts:	17,573	14,601	2,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	38.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-25.2	34.2

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	60.0	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-7,541	-33,150	40,691
– Gross Longs:	200,946	464,746	85,038
– Gross Shorts:	208,487	497,896	44,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	69.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.6	60.6	-28.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,665 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	70.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	44.9	11.8
– Net Position:	-56,354	62,698	-6,344
– Gross Longs:	47,344	172,233	22,515
– Gross Shorts:	103,698	109,535	28,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	84.7	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	2.5	-18.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -20,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,872 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	55.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	29.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-93,742	90,396	3,346
– Gross Longs:	91,560	192,103	42,118
– Gross Shorts:	185,302	101,707	38,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	73.7	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	26.5	0.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,871 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	74.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	29.6	22.5
– Net Position:	-30,694	38,686	-7,992
– Gross Longs:	10,586	64,346	11,477
– Gross Shorts:	41,280	25,660	19,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	62.6	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-2.2	-38.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -22,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	34.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-55,648	58,038	-2,390
– Gross Longs:	60,714	139,988	31,055
– Gross Shorts:	116,362	81,950	33,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	41.3	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.8	35.6	-14.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -10,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,506 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	30.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	67.7	5.9
– Net Position:	70,813	-97,347	26,534
– Gross Longs:	137,959	81,872	42,080
– Gross Shorts:	67,146	179,219	15,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	5.2	96.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.8	4.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,588 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	77.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.3	29.2	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,075	37,071	-996
– Gross Longs:	12,636	59,568	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	48,711	22,497	5,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	75.8	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	10.6	-37.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	45.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	79.6	1.2
– Net Position:	57,471	-61,787	4,316
– Gross Longs:	91,055	83,760	6,529
– Gross Shorts:	33,584	145,547	2,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	56.3	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.3	0.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -12,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.3	24.3	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	63.3	0.7
– Net Position:	40,095	-44,497	4,402
– Gross Longs:	80,157	27,699	5,206
– Gross Shorts:	40,062	72,196	804
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	6.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	29.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.2	-1.8

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,253 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.4	0.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.0	10.7	5.5
– Net Position:	2,540	-2,232	-308
– Gross Longs:	16,142	150	927
– Gross Shorts:	13,602	2,382	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	6.9	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-24.8	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

12 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & AUD lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied at the top of the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a boost by 35 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 148,242 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,685 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in next and also tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 27 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 2,540 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 287 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position has cooled off lately and comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level now resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 70,813 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the overall speculator position was 208,459 net contracts this week with a drop of -19,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong gain of 29 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 116,864 net contracts this week with a small dip of -3,330 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -22,072 net contracts this week with a dip of -471 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position continues to see very weak sentiment and comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -31 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,712,015 net contracts this week with a decline of -74,691 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Natural Gas speculator level now resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 9 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -183,987 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,531 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the GBP speculator level is at a 16 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week as the speculator position was -56,354 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,689 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 24 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -36,075 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,487 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,701 contracts) with Steel (420 contracts) and Copper (123 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-6,897 contracts), Silver (-487 contracts) and with Palladium (-343 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

Highlighting the Metals market speculative positions this week was Platinum, which saw speculator bets rise higher for a second straight week as well as the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. Platinum bets have now risen to a net standing of over +18,000 contracts, and this week’s level marks the most bullish position of the past 13 weeks dating back to January 6th. The Platinum positioning has now been above +10,000 net contracts for 47 consecutive weeks, dating back to May 13th of 2025.

Gold positions fell this week for the second consecutive week and for the third time out of the last four weeks. Gold speculator positioning has cooled off significantly since January, when the net position was a total of 251,238 contracts on January 13th to this week’s standing of 156,305 contracts, a difference of -94,933 contracts being subtracted from the overall net bullish position. The Gold position has now had less than +200,000 contracts for 10 straight weeks, and this week marked the lowest level of bullish net contracts since February 2024.

The Metals Markets’ price performance was higher across the board.

In the metals markets, prices were higher across the board as a ceasefire in the Iran war seemed to give relief to the metals’ recent price slides. Silver was the biggest winner on the week with a 6.17% gain while Copper came in second with a 4.65% rise for the week. Platinum was a close third with a 4.24% gain. Gold was higher by 2.65%, followed by Steel, which got a boost of 2.34%, and then Palladium rounded out the gainers with a 2.12% increase for the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (85 percent) and Palladium (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (26 percent) and Gold (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.6 percent)
Silver (26.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.0 percent)
Copper (70.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.6 percent)
Platinum (56.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (85.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (83.4 percent)

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (12 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.3 percent)
Silver (2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-0.2 percent)
Copper (-17.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-17.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.0 percent)
Palladium (-13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.2 percent)
Steel (-2.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 156,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -6,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,202 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	16.3	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	70.9	3.3
– Net Position:	156,305	-193,751	37,446
– Gross Longs:	205,368	57,729	49,117
– Gross Shorts:	49,063	251,480	11,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	58.6	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.8	-12.2

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,904 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	24.5	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	58.3	8.2
– Net Position:	23,417	-38,915	15,498
– Gross Longs:	32,810	28,211	24,908
– Gross Shorts:	9,393	67,126	9,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	75.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	3.5	-18.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,104 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	37.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	60.4	4.1
– Net Position:	40,227	-51,615	11,388
– Gross Longs:	72,637	84,019	20,588
– Gross Shorts:	32,410	135,634	9,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.7	26.0	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	17.9	-13.0

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,337 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	29.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	67.5	4.6
– Net Position:	18,038	-23,034	4,996
– Gross Longs:	27,259	17,393	7,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,221	40,427	2,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	47.1	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-8.8	-15.8

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,050 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	37.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	34.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-1,393	375	1,018
– Gross Longs:	6,655	5,655	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	8,048	5,280	1,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	20.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	13.0	-2.6

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,918 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	61.7	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.2	94.9	0.2
– Net Position:	11,338	-11,727	389
– Gross Longs:	12,103	21,746	472
– Gross Shorts:	765	33,473	83
– Long to Short Ratio:	15.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.7	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.3	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (33,911 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,825 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (8,889 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7,746 contracts) and also the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,825 contracts) seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-74,691 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-39,561 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,363 contracts), and with the Fed Funds (-23,798 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads the Bonds Market’s price performance

In the Bond Markets, the long US Treasury Bond was the biggest winner on the week with a modest 0.36% gain. This was followed by the Ten-Year Note, which rose by 0.34% on the week. The Five-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.24% rise and was followed by the Two-Year Bond, which rose by a similar 0.11% uptick.

Fed Funds were virtually unchanged at a 0.02% rise, while the 1-Month SOFR ticked up by 0.02%, and the 3-Month SOFR followed with a 0.01% edge higher.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (58.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (56.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (66.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (65.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (70.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (28.6 percent)

5-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-31.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-34.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (26.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-22.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (20.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (5.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,706 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	64.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	61.5	1.8
– Net Position:	-74,504	59,457	15,047
– Gross Longs:	315,774	1,191,545	47,913
– Gross Shorts:	390,278	1,132,088	32,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	53.3	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-17.9	-15.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -564,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 24,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,139 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	58.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	53.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-564,314	563,506	808
– Gross Longs:	2,024,340	7,040,930	18,517
– Gross Shorts:	2,588,654	6,477,424	17,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-10.5	-1.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 8,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	61.4	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	57.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-57,619	57,550	69
– Gross Longs:	299,348	800,504	201
– Gross Shorts:	356,967	742,954	132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	32.3	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-20.1	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,712,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -74,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,637,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	45.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,712,015	1,638,978	73,037
– Gross Longs:	525,560	3,791,639	220,318
– Gross Shorts:	2,237,575	2,152,661	147,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	34.1	-16.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,552,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,586,840 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	57.4	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,552,929	1,494,039	58,890
– Gross Longs:	656,801	5,190,375	393,143
– Gross Shorts:	2,209,730	3,696,336	334,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	43.8	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.1	-41.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -823,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,063 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	78.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	63.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-823,624	799,342	24,282
– Gross Longs:	567,683	4,032,672	394,531
– Gross Shorts:	1,391,307	3,233,330	370,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	73.1	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -161,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,212 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	70.5	12.9
– Net Position:	-161,387	268,760	-107,373
– Gross Longs:	207,781	1,934,136	196,994
– Gross Shorts:	369,168	1,665,376	304,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	46.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	32.6	-12.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -27,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,633 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	74.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	76.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-58,996	-44,309	103,305
– Gross Longs:	197,953	1,324,620	239,238
– Gross Shorts:	256,949	1,368,929	135,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	34.7	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	33.8	-47.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -260,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -268,129 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	85.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.3	8.2
– Net Position:	-260,383	261,393	-1,010
– Gross Longs:	126,501	1,941,140	184,064
– Gross Shorts:	386,884	1,679,747	185,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.5	42.2	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-2.4	-14.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with a gain of 4,691 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Bloomberg Index (-98,639 contracts), Natural Gas (-16,531 contracts), WTI Crude (-11,335 contracts), Gasoline (-8,734 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,205 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude and Bloomberg Commodity Index highlight weekly changes

Highlighting the Energy market changes this week was Brent Oil, which was the only market with a positive week in speculator bets. Brent Oil saw a sharp drop by over -18,000 contracts last week (March 31st) and rebounded by almost +5,000 contracts this week. Overall, the Brent Crude Oil speculator position remains in negative territory as this market is usually negative and incorporates a lot of hedging activity.

Next up, the Bloomberg Commodity Index positions dropped by the most on record, falling by almost -100,000 contracts this week after seeing an influx of positions by over +35,000 contracts last week (March 31st). The Bloomberg Commodity Index bets fell by -98,639 contracts this week, bringing the overall net position standing to -75,342 contracts. This means the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at the lowest or most bearish level on record dating back to 2016, according to CFTC data.

Energy Markets Price Performance was lower across the board on the Iran war ceasefire.

In the energy markets, Gasoline fell the least this week with a -3.47% decline, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which retreated by -4.46%. Natural Gas was down by over 6% with a drop by -6.13%.

The biggest losers on the week and most significantly affected by the Iran war ceasefire, were Brent Oil which fell by -13.91%, WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -14.09%, and Heating Oil, which decreased strongly by -16.45% over the past five days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (14.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (36.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Natural Gas (14.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.0 percent)
Gasoline (53.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (62.6 percent)
Heating Oil (55.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (100.0 percent)

Brent Oil & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (26.2 percent) and WTI Crude (9.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Index (-63.8 percent) and Gasoline (-43.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (23.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.6 percent)
Natural Gas (9.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (11.8 percent)
Gasoline (-43.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-63.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (34.7 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 202,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,488 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	54.7	2.6
– Net Position:	202,153	-230,466	28,313
– Gross Longs:	381,615	883,576	81,673
– Gross Shorts:	179,462	1,114,042	53,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-4.2	-31.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,815 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	40.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	30.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-31,124	27,416	3,708
– Gross Longs:	67,615	107,138	12,052
– Gross Shorts:	98,739	79,722	8,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.2	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-32.7	37.7

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -183,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	36.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	26.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-183,987	162,087	21,900
– Gross Longs:	212,869	572,123	56,582
– Gross Shorts:	396,856	410,036	34,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	85.2	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-14.0	16.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -8,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,326 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	72.6	5.1
– Net Position:	59,592	-74,020	14,428
– Gross Longs:	80,253	158,736	30,682
– Gross Shorts:	20,661	232,756	16,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	37.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	37.2	9.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,092 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	49.7	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	62.9	9.4
– Net Position:	8,887	-30,231	21,344
– Gross Longs:	34,892	113,696	42,973
– Gross Shorts:	26,005	143,927	21,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	37.8	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	9.1	-4.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -98,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,297 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	56.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.1	25.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-75,342	74,711	631
– Gross Longs:	100,140	134,711	657
– Gross Shorts:	175,482	60,000	26
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	25.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.0	-9.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

12 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (13,685 contracts) with Cotton (12,970 contracts), Live Cattle (11,756 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,750 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-43,938 contracts), Soybeans (-19,387 contracts), Wheat (-9,292 contracts), Sugar (-5,636 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,330 contracts), Coffee (-3,349 contracts) and Cocoa (-471 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads Soft Commodities price performance.

The price performance of Soft Commodities this week was led by Soybean Meal, which rose by roughly 5%, with a gain of 4.87% over the past five days. Cotton comes in next with a 3.30% gain, while Live Cattle rose by 2.85% on the week. Soybeans rounded out the leaders with a 1.38% rise.

On the downside, Cocoa was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.09% decline, followed by Lean Hogs which fell by -0.72%. Next up, Corn was lower by -1.89% and was followed by Wheat which declined by -2.44%. Soybean Oil dipped by a similar -2.51%.

The biggest losers on the week were Coffee, which fell by -4.67%, and Sugar, which dropped by -8.27% over the past five days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil, Soybeans & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent), Soybean Meal (90 percent) and Soybeans (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (88 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (75.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (81.8 percent)
Sugar (34.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (45.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (89.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (90.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.9 percent)
Live Cattle (80.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (59.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.2 percent)
Cotton (75.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.4 percent)
Wheat (88.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (96.5 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (54 percent) and Corn (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (35 percent), Sugar (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (29 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-8 percent) and Wheat (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (38.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.6 percent)
Sugar (32.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (8.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.2 percent)
Soybeans (-0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (35.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (53.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (62.0 percent)
Cocoa (-8.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 290,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -43,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,757 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	53.3	10.8
– Net Position:	290,819	-232,969	-57,850
– Gross Longs:	459,961	735,945	138,149
– Gross Shorts:	169,142	968,914	195,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	21.9	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-37.2	-42.6

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -70,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,117 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	45.5	9.1
– Net Position:	-70,753	67,254	3,499
– Gross Longs:	193,215	487,724	87,929
– Gross Shorts:	263,968	420,470	84,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	67.0	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.9	-32.0	20.7

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,056 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	38.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	51.0	5.2
– Net Position:	21,707	-21,687	-20
– Gross Longs:	50,143	68,102	9,061
– Gross Shorts:	28,436	89,789	9,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	57.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.4	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 208,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -19,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,846 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	63.4	8.3
– Net Position:	208,459	-177,172	-31,287
– Gross Longs:	283,509	456,246	51,916
– Gross Shorts:	75,050	633,418	83,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.1	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-0.4	11.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 148,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 13,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,557 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	43.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	66.0	3.8
– Net Position:	148,242	-164,152	15,910
– Gross Longs:	196,916	317,878	43,469
– Gross Shorts:	48,674	482,030	27,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	97.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.2	-34.9	23.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,194 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	43.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	116,864	-137,109	20,245
– Gross Longs:	168,116	260,240	48,019
– Gross Shorts:	51,252	397,349	27,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	8.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-30.3	3.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 11,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,260 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	54.1	13.6
– Net Position:	104,016	-87,776	-16,240
– Gross Longs:	154,471	98,073	30,416
– Gross Shorts:	50,455	185,849	46,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	15.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.8	-6.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	34.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	46.8	8.5
– Net Position:	46,461	-40,270	-6,191
– Gross Longs:	124,530	114,438	21,871
– Gross Shorts:	78,069	154,708	28,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	43.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	14.3	22.5

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,387 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	35.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	56.0	3.2
– Net Position:	61,357	-69,843	8,486
– Gross Longs:	131,279	124,058	19,645
– Gross Shorts:	69,922	193,901	11,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	23.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.8	-52.5	35.5

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	50.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	39.8	5.4
– Net Position:	-22,072	22,199	-127
– Gross Longs:	44,385	103,762	10,928
– Gross Shorts:	66,457	81,563	11,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.9	-12.4

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,415 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	35.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	31.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-18,707	17,642	1,065
– Gross Longs:	138,222	175,867	33,066
– Gross Shorts:	156,929	158,225	32,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	9.6	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	-2.6	31.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

05 Apr

Large Currency Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (10,634 contracts) with the British Pound (5,757 contracts), the Brazilian Real (3,463 contracts), Bitcoin (147 contracts), and the US Dollar Index (64 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-31,082 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-16,392 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-10,066 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,772 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,774 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,582 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

The Canadian Dollar weakness highlights the currencies markets speculator positions for the week. The large speculative Canadian Dollar position fell by over 31,000 contracts this week, marking its third consecutive week in decline and the fourth time out of the past five weeks. In just the past three weeks alone, the Canadian Dollar has shed -68,843 contracts from its overall standing, going from a net position of +36,159 contracts on March 10 to this week’s new total of -32,684 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar had been in bullish territory for a seven-week span from the end of January until the middle of March before speculators started adding bearish positions. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar fell modestly but has now fallen for four consecutive weeks. Previously, the Canadian Dollar had reached six-month highs in January and February, just above the 0.7415 levels. However, since the beginning of March, the Canadian Dollar has been in a downtrend which has seen its exchange rate fall to 0.7207 at the close of this week. Where the currency goes from here could be determined at its current level around 0.7200, which has been a source of major support numerous times over the past three years.

The Japanese Yen position continues to also go more bearish and fell this week for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The cumulative total of the past six weeks has now fallen by -85,827 contracts, bringing the Japanese Yen position from a bullish level of +12,955 contracts on February 17 to this week’s new total of -72,872 contracts. This week’s net position is now the most bearish since July 2024. The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar closed this week right near the 160.00 major significant level. The Yen is seeing weakness around the lowest levels of the past 30 years. Further upside will run into the 161.00 resistance area, followed by the 161.75 – 162.00 resistance that was challenged in July 2024.

Mexican Peso positions dropped sharply this week by over -16,000 contracts. Peso positioning has been sliding since late January when it was at the end of a seven-week streak where positions were over 100,000 contracts. Since then, Peso speculative positions have cooled off by a total of -45,430 contracts. That has brought the overall position down to this week’s total of 57,684 net positions. The Peso, meanwhile, has been in a nice uptrend over the past year, with prices gaining by approximately 19% since the beginning of February 2025. The Peso has run into weakness over the past six weeks. However, the currency rebounded this week strongly by approximately +1.50%, breaking a previous five-week losing streak.

The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real lead the Currency market price performances this week

In the Currency markets, the price performance leaders were the Mexican Peso with a 1.46% rise on the week and the Brazilian Real, which increased by 1.30%. Bitcoin was modestly higher by 0.69%, while the Australian Dollar increased by 0.43%. The Japanese Yen ticked up by 0.32%, followed by the Euro, which was higher by 0.26%. Rounding out the gainers was the US Dollar Index, which edged higher by 0.03% on the week. The Swiss Franc was slightly lower by -0.02% and followed by the Canadian Dollar, which was lower by -0.34%. The British Pound was modestly lower by -0.40%, while the New Zealand Dollar rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.84% decrease in the Currency markets.

Over the past 30 days, the only Currency that has a positive return is the US Dollar Index, which has risen by 2.48% in the past 30 days. While on the downside, Bitcoin has fallen by -5.77%, the New Zealand Dollar has dropped by -5.34%, and the Swiss Franc is down by approximately -4%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), Canadian Dollar (70 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (29 percent), the Japanese Yen (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (32.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (30.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (70.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (83.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (32.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (96.9 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (13 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), Japanese Yen (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (9.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.7 percent)
EuroFX (-66.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-65.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-4.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (7.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.8 percent)
Bitcoin (13.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	29.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.9	5.5
– Net Position:	3,681	-4,930	1,249
– Gross Longs:	21,708	11,319	3,389
– Gross Shorts:	18,027	16,249	2,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.2	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-15.3	39.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	59.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	64.5	6.0
– Net Position:	507	-36,991	36,484
– Gross Longs:	200,168	462,337	83,289
– Gross Shorts:	199,661	499,328	46,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	68.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.2	65.0	-35.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	68.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	43.6	12.3
– Net Position:	-52,665	61,408	-8,743
– Gross Longs:	51,304	167,652	21,248
– Gross Shorts:	103,969	106,244	29,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	84.2	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	9.3	-35.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	53.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	33.4	11.2
– Net Position:	-72,872	70,707	2,165
– Gross Longs:	95,356	185,944	40,898
– Gross Shorts:	168,228	115,237	38,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	68.8	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	21.9	-2.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	28.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-29,871	35,735	-5,864
– Gross Longs:	9,315	58,243	11,957
– Gross Shorts:	39,186	22,508	17,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	57.8	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-4.7	-34.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -32,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.8	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	40.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-32,684	33,986	-1,302
– Gross Longs:	56,421	121,227	31,625
– Gross Shorts:	89,105	87,241	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	31.6	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	25.9	-16.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 81,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	30.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.3	5.5
– Net Position:	81,506	-109,041	27,535
– Gross Longs:	141,775	79,251	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	60,269	188,292	14,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-15.5	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	37.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-28,588	29,446	-858
– Gross Longs:	10,663	55,919	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	39,251	26,473	4,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	67.2	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-4.8	-28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	45.2	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	78.2	1.4
– Net Position:	57,684	-60,576	2,892
– Gross Longs:	94,183	83,284	5,529
– Gross Shorts:	36,499	143,860	2,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	57.1	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	19.1	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	69.6	0.7
– Net Position:	52,711	-56,481	3,770
– Gross Longs:	82,787	39,920	4,727
– Gross Shorts:	30,076	96,401	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.9	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-12.3	-4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	0.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.4	9.6	6.1
– Net Position:	2,253	-1,809	-444
– Gross Longs:	14,914	168	805
– Gross Shorts:	12,661	1,977	1,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	16.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.3	-26.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Apr

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & Bloomberg Index lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 31st.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top of the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,506 net contracts this week with a boost of 10,634 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied as well at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a strong gain of 39 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 134,557 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 17,422 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position also comes in at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week with the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 13 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 2,253 net contracts this week with an increase of 147 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position surged to tie at the top of this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range as the six-week trend for the speculator strength score spiked higher by 74.4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position is currently 23,297 net contracts this week with a gain of 35,029 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes up number five in the extreme standings this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a jump of 41 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -9,415 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,673 contracts in the speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -21,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,485 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,637,324 net contracts this week with a small rise of 855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -52,665 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing. The Natural Gas speculator level is at a 25 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -167,456 net contracts this week with an increase of 5,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Silver speculator level sits at a 27 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was showed no change this week and the speculator position was 23,904 net contracts this week with a retreat by -769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

05 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,567 contracts) with Palladium (192 contracts) and Platinum (139 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,125 contracts), Steel (-3,544 contracts) and with Silver (-769 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads the Metals price performance

In the Metals markets this week, Palladium was the biggest winner for price performance with a 7.20% gain over the past 5 days. Platinum was higher as well by 5.09%, while Silver came in third with a 4.48% advance. Gold also rose higher with a strong 4.17% rise. Steel was up by 1.84%, and Copper rounds out the gainers with a 1.62% advance.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (39.7 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (70.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (85.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.7 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (10 percent) and Gold (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.4 percent)
Silver (-0.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.8 percent)
Platinum (10.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.3 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.6 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	16.2	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	72.0	3.4
– Net Position:	163,202	-201,640	38,438
– Gross Longs:	207,602	58,697	50,617
– Gross Shorts:	44,400	260,337	12,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	55.4	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.9	4.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	26.0	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	59.7	8.3
– Net Position:	23,904	-38,857	14,953
– Gross Longs:	33,463	29,892	24,465
– Gross Shorts:	9,559	68,749	9,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	75.1	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	5.6	-18.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	38.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	60.9	4.9
– Net Position:	40,104	-49,809	9,705
– Gross Longs:	71,107	84,546	20,448
– Gross Shorts:	31,003	134,355	10,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	27.5	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.8	-25.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	30.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	16,337	-21,603	5,266
– Gross Longs:	26,303	18,427	8,060
– Gross Shorts:	9,966	40,030	2,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	50.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-7.8	-10.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	35.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	35.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-1,050	-9	1,059
– Gross Longs:	6,835	5,433	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	7,885	5,442	1,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	17.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.9	-2.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	61.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.8	94.2	0.2
– Net Position:	10,918	-11,312	394
– Gross Longs:	11,871	20,848	473
– Gross Shorts:	953	32,160	79
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	16.6	87.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.5	5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

05 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (64,159 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (11,341 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,058 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (855 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-163,229 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-142,176 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-138,404 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-38,203 contracts) and with the Fed Funds (-18,664 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The Bond market price performances were higher across the board this week

The major Bond Markets were led higher this week in price performance by the long U.S. Treasury Bond, which rose by 0.55% over the past five days. The 10-Year Note followed along with a 0.24% increase, while the 5-Year Bond was higher by 0.11%.

The 2-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.03% uptick, and the Fed Funds Futures saw a minuscule edge higher by 0.01%. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate also was up by 0.01%, as was the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which also rose by 0.01%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and continues to be in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (56.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (64.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (43.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (60.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (65.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (62.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (85.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (70.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (66.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (54.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (28.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.2 percent)

5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (30 percent) and the Fed Funds (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (20.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-35.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-30.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (29.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (34.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-13.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (5.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-3.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (7.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (1.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	65.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.9	3.0
– Net Position:	-50,706	31,530	19,176
– Gross Longs:	331,480	1,430,175	83,806
– Gross Shorts:	382,186	1,398,645	64,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	49.4	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.6	-25.8	1.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -589,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -163,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -425,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	58.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	53.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-589,139	586,476	2,663
– Gross Longs:	1,953,604	6,958,456	26,736
– Gross Shorts:	2,542,743	6,371,980	24,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	71.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.8	1.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -66,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	58.1	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	54.1	1.5
– Net Position:	-66,508	66,512	-4
– Gross Longs:	378,084	955,984	25,104
– Gross Shorts:	444,592	889,472	25,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	33.9	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.0	0.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,637,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,638,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	46.9	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,637,324	1,572,073	65,251
– Gross Longs:	565,540	3,787,152	214,812
– Gross Shorts:	2,202,864	2,215,079	149,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	40.2	-22.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,586,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -138,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,448,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	80.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	57.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,586,840	1,527,540	59,300
– Gross Longs:	651,244	5,250,315	401,332
– Gross Shorts:	2,238,084	3,722,775	342,032
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	45.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-27.7	-31.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -784,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -142,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -641,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	63.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-784,063	748,325	35,738
– Gross Longs:	626,486	4,009,481	403,820
– Gross Shorts:	1,410,549	3,261,156	368,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	65.9	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.2	-17.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -167,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.3	13.1
– Net Position:	-167,212	276,819	-109,607
– Gross Longs:	203,324	1,931,851	199,734
– Gross Shorts:	370,536	1,655,032	309,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	48.4	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	10.7	21.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.3	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	77.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-31,633	-69,728	101,361
– Gross Longs:	214,537	1,323,153	241,653
– Gross Shorts:	246,170	1,392,881	140,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	28.2	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	20.0	-27.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -268,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -279,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	73.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-268,129	251,701	16,428
– Gross Longs:	126,528	1,897,318	194,931
– Gross Shorts:	394,657	1,645,617	178,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	38.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-0.7	-5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.