Archive for Forex and Currency News

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 27.09.2021 (EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1718; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1730 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1595. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1905. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fix below 1.1680.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7280; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.7290 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7115. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7350. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7445.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.7016; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7040 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6905. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7095. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7185.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 27.09.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues trading downwards; it has already completed the descending structure at 1.1700 along with the correction towards 1.1724. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 1.1698 and then start a new correction towards 1.1707. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.1666.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still falling; it has already finished the descending structure at 1.3660 along with the correction towards 1.3696. Today, the pair may fall to reach 1.3639 and then start another correction to return to 1.3696. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.3580.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has completed the correction at 73.00. Possibly, the pair may start a new decline to break 72.60 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 72.30.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing one more ascending structure at 110.78, USDJPY is expected to correct and reach 110.15. After that, the instrument may start another growth towards 110.40 and then resume falling with the target at 109.85.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is growing towards 0.9279. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 0.9244 and then and resume trading within the uptrend with the target at 0.9330.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the descending structure at 0.7235 along with the correction towards 0.7288. Possibly, today the pair may resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 0.7220.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After completing the ascending wave at 79.02, Brent is consolidating there. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the downside and start a new correction towards 77.30. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 81.25.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1750.00. Today, the metal may expand the range up to 1761.47 and then form a new descending structure to return to 1750.00. After that, the instrument resume trading upwards with the target at 1764.90 and then start another decline to reach 1726.40.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index has extended the correction towards 4486.0. Possibly, today the asset may start another decline to reach 4392.0 and then resume growing with the target at 4437.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.27

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1738
  • Prev Close: 1.1720
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

According to the IFO Munich Economic Institute, which estimated business sentiment in Germany, the German industry is in recession. It is noted that many companies that took part in the IFO survey stated that not only their current business situation but also their perspectives are worsening. Meanwhile, companies that operate in the tourism and hotel business, as well as in the construction business, noted the improvement of the situation.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1704, 1.1620
  • Resistance levels: 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.09.27:
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Brainard’s Speech at 19:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3718
  • Prev Close: 1.3666
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

One-third of BP’s gas stations are out of fuel. Car queues near gas stations have been observed for the third consecutive day. The shortage of drivers is causing problems transporting fuel from refineries to gas stations. Some operators were forced to limit deliveries and others even closed gas stations.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
  • Resistance levels: 1.3685, 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average line. Buy deals should be considered only intraday and only with short targets from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.09.27:
  • – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.25
  • Prev Close: 110.74
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.44%

Last week, the Japanese government announced that more than half of the population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with vaccination rates finally catching up with the US, UK, and other major countries. As for supply chain disruptions, new measures are needed to solve the problem of the lack of key products such as semiconductors and auto parts. And while the prime ministerial candidates plan to compile a package of measures to stimulate the economy, the Japanese yen is losing its positions against the dollar index.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
  • Resistance levels: 110.65, 110.95, 111.49

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness, the USD/JPY quotes sharply rushed up. The MACD indicator has become positive. There are signs of overbuying but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.63, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2654
  • Prev Close: 1.2646
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index traded in a range on Friday, while oil prices continued to rise. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes are declining against the background of the strengthening Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
  • Resistance levels: 1.2646, 1.2726, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

From the technical point of view, the trend has changed to bearish. The price fell below the moving average and broke through down the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of a reversal in the form of divergence. That means that a breakout of the priority change level might be false. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy only after the price returns above the level of priority change level, with a bullish initiative. It is best to look for sell trades from resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2646 support level and fixes above again, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The world’s reserve currency continued its consolidation

By Admiral Markets

Last week the US dollar was in a consolidative mood and did not show a consistent direction, although the stock markets started the week with a rather material correction and then the US central bank finally signalled a tapering of its stimulus programme in the coming months.

USD

Data in the world’s largest economy remained good and pointed to a high level of activity among people and businesses. Preliminary data on the purchasing managers’ indices pointed to a moderate slowdown in the pace of growth, with manufacturing at 60.5 points and services at 54.4, both remaining in positive territory, although the results were weaker than in the previous month. In the secondary real estate market, annual existing home sales stood at 5.88 million in August and were stable in the perspective of the last six months, while sales of new homes reached 740 thousand per year and rose gradually for the second month in a row. The number of new jobless claims continued to rise marginally from 0.332 to 0.351 million on a weekly basis.

Also last week, the minutes of the US central bank’s last meeting were released, with the main message being that the bank’s members are prepared to reduce the size of the stimulus programme and buy smaller amounts of bonds on the market. The market’s expectation is that the next meeting will already announce amounts and dates for when and how this process will start. The forecasts for 2022 were also updated, with 3.8% annual economic growth and 2.2% inflation expected.

The spread of the virus continued to show a slowing trend, with the global average of new cases dropping from 533 to 482 thousand per day. North America recorded a decline of around -15% in cases per week, while Europe saw a slight increase of a few percent. In the US alone, the figures moved in a positive direction, with the weekly average dropping from 148 to 122 thousand cases per day. The number of vaccines administered increased from 383 million to 389 million, with a change of 6 million, as the third dose of the vaccine intensified. Overall in the US, the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose rose from 63.5% to 64.1% of the population, with a weekly increase of 0.6%. In Lithuania, the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose rose from 61.5% to 62.0%, a difference of 0.5%. In England, the number of cases remains stable at 33,000 per day.

Euro

The major currency pair EUR/USD depreciated to the level of 1.169 at the beginning of the week, but recovered its losses and ended the trading session marginally changed. Economic data on the Old Continent included the German producer price index, which rose by 12% in August compared to the same period a year earlier, the fastest rise since 1974, suggesting that upward pressure on prices still remains in the economy. Preliminary purchasing managers’ indices were also released: European manufacturing fell to 58.7 and services slipped to 56.3 points, suggesting slower growth expectations in the coming months. The EUR/USD pair ended the week down -0.1%.

JPY

The most important Asian pair USD/JPY moved in the trading channel formed at the beginning of July. After starting the week with a correction to the bottom at 109.2, it started to appreciate significantly on Wednesday and ended the week at 110.7 points. Among the data was the August annual inflation rate, which remained negative at -0.4%. Preliminary purchasing managers’ indices showed mixed results, with industrial falling to 51.7 points and services rising to 47.4. USD/JPY ended the week trading up 0.7%.

GBP

The British pound/US dollar pair reflected the general sentiment on the currency markets and depreciated at the beginning of the week before appreciating in the second half. Data included preliminary purchasing managers’ indices: industrial at 56.3 and services at 54.6 points. The central bankers unanimously decided to keep the monetary policy and the amount of stimulus unchanged. GBP/USD ended the week down -0.5%.

Economic Events

This week will start quietly and on Monday only the US industrial orders will be monitored. On Tuesday, the US consumer confidence index will be due, and on Wednesday the German retail sales and the US pending home sales will be released. On Thursday, Japanese industrial production data and German labour market results will be monitored, while on Friday European preliminary inflation and actual purchasing managers’ indices will be seen.

According to Admiral Markets market sentiment data, 70% of investors have long positions in EUR/USD (down -15 percentage points compared to last week). In the main Asian pair USD/JPY, 9% of investors have long positions (down -15 percentage points). In the GBP/USD pair, 68% of participants expect a rise (down -15 percentage points). Such market data is interpreted as a contrarian indicator, and therefore EUR/USD and GBP/USD are expected to fall, while USD/JPY is expected to appreciate. The analysis of positioning data should be combined with fundamental projections and technical analysis.

Source: bloomberg.com, reuters.com, Admiral Markets MT4 Supreme Edition, investing.com 

 

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The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following: 

  • This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. 
  • Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content. 
  • With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest. 
  • The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Skirmantus Paulavicius (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations. 
  • Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. 
  • Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed. 
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Intraday Market Analysis – DAX 40 Struggles To Rally

By Orbex

GER 40 hits tough resistance

DE40

European markets struggle as embattled property giant Evergrande faces more coupon payments this week.

The Dax 40’s tentative break below the major support at 15050 weighs on traders’ risk appetite. Unless the bulls can push back and absorb offers at 15780, the index could be vulnerable to a deeper correction.

An overbought RSI has caused a stall in the recovery. A bearish MA cross may attract selling interest. 15400 is an important gatekeeper and a breach could trigger a sharp sell-off to 14900.

NZDUSD retraces to major support

NZDUSD

The US dollar continues to creep up after the Fed’s hawkish tilt. The RSI’s overbought situation suggests that the kiwi’s initial breakout has over-stretched itself.

Buying interest could lie between 0.6980 and the psychological level of 0.7000. The bulls will need to clear the origin of the September sell-off (0.7110), and then they could seal the continuation of the rally towards 0.7210.

However, if this turns out to be a false rebound, a bearish breakout would dent the hope of recovery and send the pair to 0.6880.

XAGUSD tests critical support

XAGUSD

The rising Treasury yields and US dollar weigh on precious metals. Some bargain hunters were eager to buy silver at the psychological level of 22.00, which is also critical support from the daily timeframe.

However, the rebound has seen strong selling interest at 23.10. Should buyers gather enough momentum to break free, 23.80 would be the next target.

On the downside, a bearish breakout would shake the last buyers out and conclude an eleven-month-long consolidation with a bearish reversal.


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

EUR/USD Remains Neutral

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

On Monday afternoon, the major currency pair is steadily trading at 1.1720 without any sharp fluctuations: the “greenback” remains strong, while the Euro can’t rise despite a huge risk appetite on the market.

The latest data on the American real estate market was in favour of the USD. For example, the New Home Sales added 1.5% in August (seasonally-adjusted) and showed 740K against the expected reading of 714K.

American monetary policymakers delivered several speeches and investors were listening to them very carefully. For example, there was an opinion that the labour market still didn’t look quite stable and might not pass the test of the QE program reduction planned by the US Federal Reserve System.

At the same time, some other committee members believe that the regulator should start reducing the program as early as November and raise the rates late in 2022 if the employment sector allows.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD continues forming the third descending wave with the target at 1.1655 and may later correct towards 1.1750; right now, it is forming the fifth structure of the above-mentioned wave. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.1670 and then grow to test 1.1710 from below. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to reach the target at 1.1655. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is steadily moving below 0 and may continue falling towards new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, EUR/USD continues forming the fifth structure of the descending wave. Today, the pair may consolidate around 1.1707. Later, the market may fall towards 1.1695 and then grow to test 1.1707 from below. Later, the market may start another decline to reach the short-term target of this structure at 1.1666. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is steadily falling towards 50, a breakout of which may lead to further decline to reach 20.

COT Forex Futures Charts: US Dollar, Euro, Aussie, Yen, Pound, Swiss Franc, Peso, Bitcoin

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 21st 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-21-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index45,9345825,10069-30,394245,29494
EUR663,5197112,09539-44,2496332,15431
GBP159,90813-218741,07330-85554
JPY191,21354-56,0713666,59466-10,52329
CHF56,83837-9,2175424,49758-15,28018
CAD118,5289-27,8773218,854639,02360
AUD185,49272-85,5840102,302100-16,71815
NZD36,691188,10285-9,221161,11966
MXN169,89833-19,015515,340943,67559
RUB53,6295918,23357-19,757401,52486
BRL23,390205,77276-6,787241,01579
Bitcoin7,34838-1,0257526099923

US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 1.8 15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 68.0 3.7
– Net Position: 25,100 -30,394 5,294
– Gross Longs: 36,883 849 7,006
– Gross Shorts: 11,783 31,243 1,712
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.1 24.1 94.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.0 -10.6 8.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 57.4 12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 64.1 8.0
– Net Position: 12,095 -44,249 32,154
– Gross Longs: 189,406 381,122 85,507
– Gross Shorts: 177,311 425,371 53,353
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.7 63.2 30.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 7.3 -6.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 49.6 16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 48.9 16.9
– Net Position: -218 1,073 -855
– Gross Longs: 51,910 79,287 26,218
– Gross Shorts: 52,128 78,214 27,073
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 30.3 53.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 6.1 -6.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 76.7 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.3 41.9 15.8
– Net Position: -56,071 66,594 -10,523
– Gross Longs: 22,844 146,680 19,685
– Gross Shorts: 78,915 80,086 30,208
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.7 66.1 29.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.8 -7.9 25.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.1 70.7 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.3 27.6 42.7
– Net Position: -9,217 24,497 -15,280
– Gross Longs: 7,447 40,201 9,004
– Gross Shorts: 16,664 15,704 24,284
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 58.4 18.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.0 25.5 -10.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.0 54.2 27.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 38.3 20.3
– Net Position: -27,877 18,854 9,023
– Gross Longs: 18,954 64,253 33,096
– Gross Shorts: 46,831 45,399 24,073
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.8 63.5 60.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.6 25.7 -10.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -85,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.3 76.4 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 59.5 21.2 16.7
– Net Position: -85,584 102,302 -16,718
– Gross Longs: 24,746 141,655 14,298
– Gross Shorts: 110,330 39,353 31,016
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.6 29.8 -4.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.7 30.0 13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 55.1 10.2
– Net Position: 8,102 -9,221 1,119
– Gross Longs: 19,703 11,012 4,873
– Gross Shorts: 11,601 20,233 3,754
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.9 16.2 65.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -16.6 18.1

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.2 43.3 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 63.4 34.3 1.7
– Net Position: -19,015 15,340 3,675
– Gross Longs: 88,733 73,538 6,561
– Gross Shorts: 107,748 58,198 2,886
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.2 93.7 58.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.9 4.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 30.1 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.8 59.1 8.1
– Net Position: 5,772 -6,787 1,015
– Gross Longs: 13,443 7,036 2,911
– Gross Shorts: 7,671 13,823 1,896
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.3 24.4 79.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 20.8 -10.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.0 43.5 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 80.3 1.6
– Net Position: 18,233 -19,757 1,524
– Gross Longs: 27,871 23,314 2,391
– Gross Shorts: 9,638 43,071 867
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 40.3 86.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.8 -17.5 3.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 59.6 5.3 25.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.5 5.0 11.5
– Net Position: -1,025 26 999
– Gross Longs: 4,376 390 1,845
– Gross Shorts: 5,401 364 846
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 36.6 22.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -6.5 -0.6

 


Article By InvestMacro.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 24.09.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is correcting within the downtrend. Possibly, this pullback may transform into a new rising wave to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.7499 and 0.7591 respectively. However, the main scenario implies a further downtrend towards the low and the mid-term 38.2% fibo at 0.7106 and 0.7052 respectively.

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows the potential targets of the short-term ascending correction. The asset has already tested 38.2% fibo at 0.7318 and may later continue towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.7349 and 0.7379 respectively. If the price is able to reach 76.0% fibo at 0.7416, it may continue growing towards the resistance at 0.7478 or even higher.

AUDUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after an attempt to grow and reach the high at 1.2949, the pair is forming a new wave to the downside. If later the price does break the high, the asset may continue trading within the uptrend towards the long-term target, which is 38.2% fibo at 1.3022. However, the closest target of the current decline is the support at the low (1.2493), a breakout of which may lead to a further downtrend towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2479 and 1.2367 respectively.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current descending wave, which has already reached 61.8% fibo. The next downside target is 76.0% fibo at 1.2590 respectively, as well as the low at 1.2493.

USDCAD_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 24.09.2021 (GBPUSD, BRENT, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3715; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3735 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3535. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3905. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1.3645.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Brent

Brent is trading at 77.36; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 75.05 and then resume moving upwards to reach 81.75. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 72.35. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 71.45.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.7064; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7070 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6935. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7105. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7205.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.24

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1687
  • Prev Close: 1.1738
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.44%

In general, the business activity index in the manufacturing and service sectors decreases in European countries (Germany, France). It indicates a slowdown in economic recovery. Economists expect that the ECB will also start to reduce the asset purchase program until the end of this year. Otherwise, the further growth of inflation cannot be avoided.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1704, 1.1620
  • Resistance levels: 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.09.24:
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Homes Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3612
  • Prev Close: 1.3719
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.79%

The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.1% and the volume of government bond purchases at GBP 875 billion. On the back of this news, the British pound sharply strengthened yesterday. But the index of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors has declined over the last month, indicating that the recovery is slowing down.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3685, 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
  • Resistance levels: 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. But the MACD indicator became positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average line. Buy deals should be considered only intraday and only with short targets from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.73
  • Prev Close: 110.32
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.54%

Japan’s consumer price index has not changed compared to the previous month, which put an end to its decline for the first time in 13 months. The core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices, decreased by 0.5% in August compared to a year earlier. The Japanese yen lost its positions against the dollar on this news.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.40, 109.94, 109.63, 109.28, 108.65
  • Resistance levels: 110.65, 110.95

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness, the USD/JPY quotes sharply rushed up. The price broke through the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become positive. There are signs of overbuying but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.63, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2021.09.24:
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2772
  • Prev Close: 1.2655
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.92%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index decreased yesterday, while oil prices increased sharply. As a result, on the background of the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair declined.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2646, 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
  • Resistance levels: 1.2726, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

From the technical point of view, the situation is uncertain. The local uptrend is about to end, as the price is trading below the moving average and has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy from the priority change level after additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the uptrend will likely be broken.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.