Archive for Forex and Currency News

USD/JPY Falls as Yen Recovers Weekly Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.

Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.

Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.

At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.

Conclusion

The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Pound Awaits Tighter Policy from Bank of England

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD declined to 1.3352 on Wednesday amid a general deterioration in the external environment and a decline in risk appetite. The escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain have prompted investors to move away from riskier assets.

Earlier, the pound had appeared more resilient, supported by oil prices rising above 72 USD per barrel and the associated inflationary risks. Market participants are currently pricing in approximately a 76% probability of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end, with the likelihood of tightening as early as November exceeding 50%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently confirmed that inflation remains on a path towards the 2% target but acknowledged that this process will take longer than previously expected. At the same time, the regulator does not see scope for reducing interest rates in the near future.

Political uncertainty in the UK has had a limited impact on the market so far. The favourite for the post of Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has yet to announce his candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer. However, investors believe that much of the domestic political risk has already been priced into the pound’s exchange rate.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is moving lower towards 1.3240. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from this range would open the way for a move towards 1.3480, while a downside breakout would suggest a decline towards 1.3290, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3090. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3360 level, currently extending down to 1.3340. A move higher towards 1.3360 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3320. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Sterling has retreated as deteriorating geopolitical conditions in the Middle East – including attacks on Gulf states and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz – have dampened risk appetite. The pound had previously found support from rising oil prices and market expectations of further Bank of England tightening, with a 76% probability of a rate hike priced in by year-end. Governor Bailey’s confirmation that inflation remains above target and that rate cuts are not imminent has reinforced the hawkish outlook. While domestic political uncertainty appears largely priced in, the pound’s near-term trajectory will depend on how geopolitical risks evolve. Technically, further downside towards 1.3240 and potentially 1.3090 appears likely in the medium term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

RoboForex Brings Full-Scale Trading to Telegram

Belize City, Belize, July 6, 2026 – Financial broker RoboForex now offers direct trading within Telegram, providing users with a full-scale mobile trading experience without leaving their preferred messenger. This integration allows users to manage their accounts, execute trades, and access professional analytical tools from anywhere and on any device through a single interface.

Modern traders no longer need to overload their smartphones with multiple apps for different tasks. RoboForex has integrated its MobileTrader platform into Telegram as a Mini App, transforming one of the world’s most popular messaging platforms into a powerful, unified trading environment. This new capability is ideal for those who value mobility and want reliable market access without being tied to a specific device or complex software.

A Seamless Environment Built Around User Experience

The MobileTrader Telegram Mini App is designed to reflect the real-world workflow of modern traders. As expert signals and market news are often delivered through Telegram channels, users can now stay at the centre of market activity without switching between applications. The in-messenger trading app can be minimised within Telegram, allowing users to follow news, signals, and analytics in their communities and instantly return to the trading interface to open a position as soon as an opportunity arises.

While we live in a mobile-first era, comprehensive market research and technical analysis often require precision and a desktop setup. RoboForex ensures a truly unified workspace where all operations are synchronised in real time. A trader can open a position via the Telegram interface while on the go and seamlessly transition to the web version of MobileTrader for more detailed analysis once at their desk. This continuity ensures that market access is always available, regardless of the device being used.

Telegram is seeing strong growth in popularity among the global trading community, yet for a long time, it was perceived only as a communication tool. We decided to change that by providing traders with a user-friendly app that simplifies market entry and makes the trading process as natural as sending a message,” said Douglas Abreu, Regional Operations Manager at RoboForex.

Mini App, Full-Scale Functionality

Now available as a Telegram Mini App, RoboForex MobileTrader offers full trading functionality in a compact format. The streamlined format retains full functionality and provides everything a trader needs:

  • Full сontrol: account management, order execution, position monitoring, and live charts
  • Financial management: instant deposits and withdrawals, with zero-commission withdrawals available three Tuesdays per month
  • Analytical hub: economic calendar, personalised alerts, and market analytics
  • Copy Trading: access to one of the industry’s largest copy-trading communities, with thousands of strategies to follow

How to Get Started

Instant access is available through the official Telegram bot: @RoboForexMobileTraderBot.

The Telegram Mini App is an integral part of the unified RoboForex MobileTrader platform. Whether using Telegram, iOS and Android apps, or the web platform, traders access the same accounts and positions across all environments. This enables seamless switching between platforms depending on context and convenience, providing full flexibility to access global financial markets.

 

About RoboForex

 

RoboForex is a company that provides brokerage services, giving traders access to financial markets through its proprietary trading terminals and industry-leading trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage license number FSC 9759600. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Your Bourse Integrates TradingView Charts and Trading Platform Library with Trade Server

Brokers can now build full trading platforms on Your Bourse Trade Server using TradingView charts or the TradingView Trading Platform library, with multi-asset support and flat monthly pricing.

Your Bourse, a trading technology provider, has integrated TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library with Your Bourse Trade Server. Brokers can now incorporate TradingView technology into their platforms, either through their own proprietary infrastructure or as part of a Trade Server-powered backend. Trade Server is built as a frontend-agnostic, API-first backend with no proprietary front end of its own, giving brokers full infrastructure control with predictable, flat monthly pricing.

Integration Capabilities

TradingView Charting Integration: Brokers can offer TradingView’s signature charting features combined with order management and account interface, powered by Trade Server.

TradingView Advanced Charts: Brokers who prefer to use their own trading interface can embed TradingView’s Advanced Charts into their own proprietary front ends.

TradingView Trading Platform Library: A Trading Platform library from TradingView provides the core components needed to build trading platforms. It is based on Advanced Charts and contains all its features, including charting, technical analysis tools, order management, and real-time updates, enabling companies to create efficient and user-friendly trading applications. Powered by Trade Server, brokers can use it to build complete, multi-asset trading applications on their own infrastructure.

Multi-Asset Trading from One Account: Trade Server supports FX, CFDs, crypto spot, crypto perpetuals, exchange-traded instruments, futures, and more from a single trading account.

Portfolio-Based Margin: Margin and liquidation are calculated across all positions, with cross-asset collateral and unified liquidation logic.

High-Performance Infrastructure: Trade Server delivers ~21μs execution latency, 500K+ orders per second, 10M+ open positions capacity, and 99.999% uptime SLA.

Flat Monthly Pricing: Subscription pricing is based on account capacity, not trading volume, giving brokers cost predictability regardless of how much their clients trade.

What This Means for Brokers

The integration of TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library with Trade Server lets brokers offer a modern, full-featured trading platform while keeping full backend infrastructure control. TradingView provides the charting and platform components traders expect. Your Bourse Trade Server provides the backend that supports true multi-asset trading from one account with flat pricing and the development agility of an API-first architecture.

Streamlined Implementation

Your Bourse acts as a TradingView charts and Trading Platform library redistributor and integration owner, providing:

Defined onboarding flow
Pre-built integration layers
Technical support throughout implementation
Ongoing maintenance and updates

Trade Server’s API-first architecture simplifies integration of both TradingView charts and the Trading Platform library, and supports faster onboarding than legacy backend alternatives.

Executive Perspective

“TradingView has established itself as the industry standard for modern retail trading interfaces, and our partnership now covers both TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library. With Your Bourse Trade Server’s true multi-asset capabilities, brokers can build complete trading platforms and diversify their offerings across asset classes from a single account. By combining TradingView technology with Trade Server, we give brokers a modern trading environment with full control over their backend infrastructure.”
Kate Rutkovskaya, Chief Revenue Officer, Your Bourse

“Integrations like this give brokers more control over their infrastructure without changing the TradingView charting experience. Your Bourse provides the ideal foundation through its Trade Server solution.”
Vitaliy Kirpichev, Business Growth Lead, International Team, TradingView

About TradingView

TradingView is the world’s most popular charting platform and the industry’s forefront for financial visualization solutions. 100M+ traders worldwide use their platform as the go-to destination to chart, chat, and trade financial markets. Their product portfolio includes best-in-class charts, versatile commercial libraries, and many more tools for retail and business audiences.

About Your Bourse

Your Bourse provides trading technology solutions for retail and institutional brokers, prop firms, banks, and trading desks. The company’s products include Trade Server, an API-first multi-asset trading backend, and a liquidity bridge for aggregation and execution management. Your Bourse delivers multi-asset trading support and 99.999% uptime reliability, serving 115+ clients globally with a team of 45+ technical specialists.

For more information, visit https://www.yourbourse.com

Yen Still Under Pressure: Markets Await Action from Authorities

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is holding near 161.84 on Tuesday, with the yen close to 40-year lows. Pressure on the Japanese currency remains as market participants continue to bet against it, with no visible currency interventions from Japanese authorities having materialised.

At the same time, investors are closely monitoring potential action from Tokyo. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to enter the foreign exchange market if necessary. She also noted that Tokyo and Washington maintain close consultations on currency policy matters. However, the market remains sceptical that interventions alone – without a shift in monetary policy – can provide lasting support for the yen.

Additional pressure on the Japanese currency comes from expectations of further expansion in budget spending and the Bank of Japan’s slow pace of policy normalisation.

Published economic data were mixed. Nominal wages rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, but household spending fell 0.4%, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 161.92 and, following a downside breakout, is moving lower towards 161.44. This level is expected to be reached today, followed by a rebound towards 162.55. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 161.92 and, following a downside breakout, is moving lower towards 161.44. This level is expected to be reached today, followed by a rebound towards 162.55. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure, trading near 40-year lows as markets continue to bet against the currency in the absence of actual intervention from Japanese authorities. While Finance Minister Katayama has reiterated readiness to act and confirmed close coordination with Washington, market participants remain doubtful that intervention alone can reverse the yen’s trajectory without accompanying monetary policy shifts. Mixed domestic data – rising nominal wages but falling household spending – highlight ongoing weakness in demand. Technically, USD/JPY may see a modest pullback towards 161.44 in the near term. However, the broader outlook for the yen remains negative, with further expansion in fiscal spending and the Bank of Japan’s gradual approach likely to keep the currency under pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD in a Narrow Range: Focus on Fed Minutes

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1432 on Monday. At the end of last week, the main currency pair posted modest gains. Weaker-than-expected US labour market data and lower oil prices have weighed on the US dollar, prompting investors to reconsider expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report released last week showed that the US economy added only 57,000 new jobs in June, falling well short of the 110,000 forecast – the weakest result in four months. This outcome has reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike as early as September.

An additional factor weighing on the dollar was the decline in oil prices. The restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, along with expectations of increased OPEC+ production, has raised concerns about a potential global oversupply. This dynamic is helping to reduce inflation risks and the need for further rate increases.

The market’s focus this week is on the release of the June Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Investors are hoping for additional signals on the future trajectory of US monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1422, currently extending between 1.1422 and 1.1470. An upside breakout from this range would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1480, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A downside breakout would open the way for a direct move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1470 and is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A range expansion down to 1.1408 and up to 1.1480 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line at 50 and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in a narrow range as markets await fresh catalysts, with focus turning to the release of the Fed minutes later this week. Last week’s weaker-than-expected US jobs data and falling oil prices have eased pressure on the euro, reducing the likelihood of a September rate hike. The restoration of Hormuz shipments and potential OPEC+ supply increases have further dampened inflation concerns. However, the broader technical picture remains bearish, with indicators pointing towards a potential decline to 1.1260 in the medium term. The Fed minutes will be closely scrutinised for any shifts in the policy outlook that could determine the pair’s next directional move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBP Strength Holds Despite Dovish Bank of England Signals

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD shrugged off the impact of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at the ECB forum in Sintra and rose to 1.3287 on Thursday.

Earlier, Bailey confirmed that he had opposed the interest rate increase at the last meeting, citing signs of a slowdown in the British economy.

He also noted that the regulator should exercise greater caution in projecting the future rate path, as overly rigid guidance could limit the flexibility of monetary policy.

Bailey’s comments reinforced expectations of a more cautious approach to future rate decisions, which briefly weighed on the pound. However, the market absorbed the impact quickly.

Technical Analysis


On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is moving towards 1.3300 (a test from below). A broad consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from the range would open the way for a move towards 1.3350. A downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3200, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.2980. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3255, currently extending down to 1.3220. A move higher towards 1.3300 is expected, followed by a decline towards 1.3200. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

Sterling has shown resilience, pushing higher despite Bank of England Governor Bailey’s dovish remarks at the ECB forum. His confirmation that he opposed the last rate hike and his call for more cautious forward guidance initially weighed on the pound. However, the market quickly absorbed these comments, with GBP/USD recovering to trade around 1.3287. The central bank’s cautious tone may limit the pound’s longer-term upside potential, but for now, technical indicators point to further gains towards 1.3300 and potentially 1.3350. The broader direction will depend on upcoming UK economic data and any shifts in Bank of England policy.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY at 40-Year High: Multiple Factors Weigh on the Yen

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY soared to 162.78 in the middle of the week, reaching its highest level in nearly 40 years.

This sharp move has intensified expectations of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency.

Particular attention is focused on Friday, when US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day. Low liquidity during such periods traditionally increases the effectiveness of potential interventions, and it was during similar windows that the Bank of Japan previously acted.

Additional pressure on the yen comes from robust US macroeconomic data, which supports expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. At the same time, investors remain doubtful that the Bank of Japan is prepared to accelerate monetary tightening, as the regulator favours a gradual normalisation approach.

The continued appeal of carry trade operations and strong demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset are also weighing on the Japanese currency.

An additional risk factor is Japan’s reliance on oil imports from the Middle East, leaving the economy sensitive to potential disruptions in energy supplies from the region.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 162.55 level and, following an upside breakout, is developing an upward move towards 163.15. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a decline towards 161.40. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming an upward structure towards 163.15. A correction towards 162.60 may follow, before a further rise to 163.30, with scope for the trend to extend to 163.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside potential remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has surged to a 40-year high as multiple factors align against the yen. Strong US data continues to support expectations of further Fed rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan remains cautious in its approach to policy normalisation, widening the interest rate differential. The persistent appeal of carry trades and safe-haven demand for the dollar add further pressure, while Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports heightens vulnerability to supply disruptions. Markets are now on high alert for potential intervention, particularly with US markets closed on Friday – a period of low liquidity that has historically increased the likelihood of such actions. Technically, further upside towards 163.15–163.50 appears likely in the near term, although intervention risks remain elevated at these levels.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD: The Advantage Remains with the Dollar

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the week trading around 1.1381. The US dollar has maintained its strong position following the hawkish outcome of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The updated projections from FOMC members confirmed the central bank’s willingness to continue tightening monetary policy, prompting markets to reassess the interest rate outlook. The probability of a rate hike in July is currently estimated at around 29%, while the likelihood of tightening in September has risen to approximately 60%.

In recent days, however, expectations have become slightly less aggressive. One reason has been the sharp decline in oil prices, which have returned to pre-conflict levels seen before the escalation in the Middle East. Lower oil prices have helped reduce inflationary concerns. Additionally, markets have largely priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance. Further appreciation of the US dollar is therefore likely to require fresh support from robust macroeconomic data, particularly employment and inflation data.

Until the release of these key reports, the dollar is expected to remain well supported. However, in the absence of new catalysts, a period of consolidation or a moderate correction cannot be ruled out. Market attention in the coming days will focus on labour market and inflation data, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The outlook for the euro remains less favourable. Although the European Central Bank continues to pursue a tightening bias, much of the expected policy adjustment has already been priced into the market. Investors currently anticipate around 28 basis points of additional tightening by the end of the year, with the next ECB rate increase not expected before September.

The latest preliminary PMI data confirmed a further easing of inflationary pressures in the euro area, with price growth slowing to its lowest level since February. While business activity remains subdued, the pace of economic deterioration appears to have stabilised. An additional positive signal came from a recent ECB survey, which showed that consumers expect inflation to decline over the next 12 months and anticipate an improvement in economic conditions. While this supports the euro’s longer-term outlook, the near-term advantage remains firmly with the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1405. The range currently extends between 1.1378 and 1.1414. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1470, followed by a potential decline to 1.1385. Conversely, a downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1315.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting persistent negative momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1414 and is now consolidating below this level. In the short term, the range may extend between 1.1369 and 1.1317, with further downside potential towards 1.1260.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is currently near 80 and turning sharply lower towards 20, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to support the US dollar. While falling oil prices and stabilising eurozone data have eased some concerns, investors remain focused on upcoming US employment and inflation reports. Unless these data disappoint significantly, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (4,028 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,685 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,436 contracts) and Bitcoin (49 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-34,134 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-13,891 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,683 contracts), Australian Dollar (-8,887 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,195 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,036 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

Highlighting this week’s currencies speculative data is the British Pound Sterling‘s sharp weakness that has pushed the current speculative position to the fourth most bearish level on record. Speculators dropped their British Pound Sterling bets this week by -34,134 contracts, marking the third consecutive week of speculator decreases — and the speculative position has now fallen by over -53,500 contracts in just these past three weeks. This weakness has brought the overall speculator standing to a total of -105,719 standing net contracts. This marks the fourth most bearish level on record and is only less bearish than the levels that were reached for the speculators’ standing in March and April of 2017. The British Pound Sterling speculator bets have now been in bearish territory for 48 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 29th of 2025. In the Forex trading market, the British Pound Sterling dipped for a second consecutive week and is now trading at the bottom of its sideways trading channel near the 1.3200 threshold. The Pound Sterling has been in this sideways trading channel for approximately a year, with the high levels being capped around 1.3800, while the bottom has seen support at 1.3150.

The Canadian Dollar speculator position continues to deteriorate and has now fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This seven-week period has added a total of -132,133 net contracts to the bearish level. This has brought the overall net position to a total of -146,792 contracts in the third consecutive week that has seen the net position with contracts higher than -100,000. The Canadian net speculative position has been in bearish territory for 14 consecutive weeks, following a reprieve from negative bets that spanned from February 3rd to March 17th. That saw positive positions for the Canadian Dollar. This coincided with higher Oil prices, which is a major factor in Canadian exports. Currently, in the Currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has been falling rapidly and has fallen in five out of the previous seven weeks. The Canadian Dollar has broken through its previously ascending triangle pattern that had seen an upward trend line coinciding with the 200-week moving average. This week, the Canadian Dollar fell to its most bearish level since April of 2025 and tested support at 0.7050.

Next up, a currency on the rise has been the US Dollar Index (DX). The Dollar Index saw a dip this week but has risen to multi-month highs in its weekly net speculator standing over the past few weeks. This week, the US Dollar Index saw a dip by a small -269 net contract bets following last week’s strong jump by +11,813 contracts. The standing US Dollar Index net position has now been over +12,000 contracts for a second consecutive week and is at the highest levels since March of 2025. Overall, the US Dollar Index net position standing has now been in bullish or positive territory for 14 out of the past 15 weeks, including the past five weeks in a row. The Dollar Index in the currency trading markets has just recently broken out of its sideways trading band that had sustained for approximately a year. The 100.00 level had provided strong resistance to the currency, but in the last two weeks, the Dollar Index has broken out above and closed this week at 101.12. This marks the highest close since April of 2025. The next level of resistance above for further bullish action is around the 102.50 level, while we could see support for the Dollar Index at the 100.00–100.50 area.

US Dollar Index leads Currency price performances

The Currencies’ price performance this week was led by the US Dollar Index, which rose by 0.43% over the past five days. The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged on the week, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged down slightly by -0.11%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc also slid by a minuscule amount with a -0.13% decline, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Brazilian Real, which also was lower by -0.16%. The Euro declined by -0.60% on the week, while the Mexican Peso was down by -0.94%.

The Currencies that fell by over 1% this week were the Australian Dollar, with a dip of -1.51%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.55% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which dropped by -5.71%.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that  Bitcoin (100 percent) and the US Dollar Index (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent) and the Mexican Peso (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), the Japanese Yen (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (13.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.2 percent)


Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-51 percent), British Pound (-25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (26.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (-3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-25.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-50.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-42.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-18.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,197 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.425.69.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.955.23.1
– Net Position:12,928-16,2463,318
– Gross Longs:34,27814,0695,010
– Gross Shorts:21,35030,3151,692
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.012.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.3-31.633.3

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,353 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.555.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.662.36.9
– Net Position:30,158-57,18327,025
– Gross Longs:247,332431,83781,337
– Gross Shorts:217,174489,02054,312
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.361.431.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.97.5-25.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -105,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,585 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.778.26.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.336.712.4
– Net Position:-105,719123,431-17,712
– Gross Longs:40,772232,43019,092
– Gross Shorts:146,491108,99936,804
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.328.4-41.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,132 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.458.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.325.510.1
– Net Position:-146,104142,3813,723
– Gross Longs:113,698252,27847,306
– Gross Shorts:259,802109,89743,583
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.586.843.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.517.27.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,058 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.383.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.231.623.2
– Net Position:-41,09456,495-15,401
– Gross Longs:7,97590,8289,792
– Gross Shorts:49,06934,33325,193
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.6 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.891.613.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.619.9-31.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,901 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.578.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.332.611.5
– Net Position:-146,792155,789-8,997
– Gross Longs:39,429267,56630,351
– Gross Shorts:186,221111,77739,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.380.721.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-56.257.3-34.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,125 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.345.316.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.445.79.6
– Net Position:-13,012-86313,875
– Gross Longs:82,20097,08634,390
– Gross Shorts:95,21297,94920,515
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.948.469.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.748.4-27.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,161 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.784.03.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.828.46.0
– Net Position:-54,84457,522-2,678
– Gross Longs:12,11486,8133,469
– Gross Shorts:66,95829,2916,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.298.815.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.918.0-4.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,789 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.639.73.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.278.81.7
– Net Position:74,225-77,6673,442
– Gross Longs:112,38978,7756,786
– Gross Shorts:38,164156,4423,344
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.645.552.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-6.1-8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,994 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.822.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.967.21.3
– Net Position:43,679-47,0253,346
– Gross Longs:74,88823,1054,718
– Gross Shorts:31,20970,1301,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.727.739.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.118.7-7.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,475 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.50.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.416.25.9
– Net Position:3,524-3,253-271
– Gross Longs:16,34870935
– Gross Shorts:12,8243,3231,206
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.05.323.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-19.9-60.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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