Archive for Forex and Currency News

AUD/USD Stabilises Amid US Dollar Pressures and Domestic Economic Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Monday, the AUD/USD pair remains stable around the 0.6450 mark. After benefiting from the US dollar’s weakness during the extended US holiday weekend, the currency pair faced new pressures following remarks by US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s threat to impose 100% trade tariffs on BRICS nations if they pursue a universal currency to replace the US dollar has sparked a renewed demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the USD.

October’s retail sales figures exceeded expectations, supporting the Australian dollar, and reinforcing the market’s belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut rates soon. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently highlighted that core inflation remains elevated, which justifies continuing a restrictive monetary policy stance. The RBA believes it will take some time before inflation stabilises near its target.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD is currently in the first phase of a correction wave, having achieved a local target at 0.6527. The market is now forming a decline structure towards 0.6466, and once this level is reached, a new growth phase will begin, aiming for 0.6542. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line above zero and trending upwards, indicating potential for continued growth.

H1 chart: the pair has nearly reached the local growth target of 0.6527. A decline to 0.6470 is expected shortly, followed potentially by a rise to 0.6500 and then a drop to 0.6466. If this level is achieved, the market may prepare for another upward movement towards 0.6542. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line currently below 50 and expected to drop to 20, suggesting a forthcoming reversal and potential for growth.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Major US Data Releases

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains stable at around 1.0483 as markets digest the implications of the latest FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve signalled a potential pause in rate cuts if inflation reaccelerates but also indicated readiness to continue easing if economic indicators weaken.

Today promises heightened activity for EUR/USD due to a slew of US economic data releases. It is a significant day as the US will release its initial Q3 GDP estimate. After recording a 2.8% growth in Q2, market participants are keen to see if this momentum carried into the third quarter. Expectations suggest a robust period, potentially boosting the US dollar if the data exceeds forecasts.

Additionally, the US will unveil October’s figures for personal income and expenses, durable goods orders, and the core PCE price index. These data points could significantly influence the dollar’s trajectory, adding to today’s trading volatility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: The EUR/USD appears to be challenging the upper boundary of its recent downward trend. Current technical analysis suggest a potential upward move towards 1.0580. After reaching this level, a corrective pullback to 1.0460 may occur before another upward wave targets 1.0700. This bullish EUR/USD forecast is supported by the MACD, which shows a positive divergence as it approaches the zero line from below.

H1 chart: The shorter-term H1 chart indicates that EUR/USD is on an upward trajectory towards 1.0580, with the currency consolidating above 1.0460. A breakout above this consolidation could validate the move towards 1.0580. Subsequently, a retracement to 1.0460 may set the stage for further advances. The Stochastic oscillator signals potential upward momentum, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

NZD/USD Hits Yearly Low Amid US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, touching a low of 0.5841 and reaching a yearly trough of 0.5796. The primary pressure comes from a robust US dollar, bolstered by anticipations of a more stringent tariff regime under US President-elect Donald Trump. Speculations about Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods have particularly impacted the Kiwi, given China’s role as New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The market pre-emptively reacts to potential US policy shifts, recalling Trump’s previous term characterised by aggressive trade policies. This has cast a long shadow over the NZD, influencing investor sentiment.

The upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on Wednesday is crucial, with expectations leaning towards a 50-basis-point rate cut to 4.25% per annum. This expected move aligns with the RBNZ’s dovish stance from October and could sustain the downward pressure on the NZD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

H4 chart: the NZD/USD has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5797, with a subsequent recovery phase targeting 0.5922 underway. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 0.5860 could establish a consolidation zone around this marker. A break below this range might extend the decline to 0.5777, while an upward breach could pave the way to 0.5977.

H1 chart: the pair is forming an initial growth wave towards 0.5860. Following this target, a retraction to 0.5828 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator supports this currency forecast, indicating a possible downturn from elevated levels and enhancing the likelihood of continuing the downward trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Amid Slowing European Economy

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

EUR/USD encountered significant pressure, testing a low of 1.0331 before rebounding to 1.0476, as market concerns mount over the potential economic slowdown in Europe and aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Recent business surveys indicating an accelerated economic contraction in Germany and France have starkly dampened the euro’s outlook. Additionally, under the newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration, potential new trade duties from the US threaten to exacerbate Germany’s already fragile economic state. Trump’s protectionist stance could notably impact German industries, intensifying existing internal challenges.

Investors are bracing for a scenario where the ECB might implement rate reductions more swiftly than anticipated. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may hold steady, expanding the interest rate differential unfavourably against the euro.

This backdrop has led to heightened investor nervousness about the euro’s future, with further potential declines in EUR/USD not ruled out amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the full pricing-in of these expectations.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has hit its projected low at 1.0331, subsequently initiating a rebound towards 1.0500. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to 1.0414 may occur. The market may form a consolidation range around 1.0414, with potential upward movements targeting 1.0570 and possibly extending to 1.0655. This EUR/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which suggests an impending rise from below the zero level.

H1 chart: the pair is forming a rise to 1.0500, which is anticipated as an initial target. After this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0414 is expected, suggesting a test from above. The stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, indicating a readiness to descend from a mid-range position towards lower thresholds.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (18,034 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (1,803 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-35,120 contracts), the British Pound (-15,735 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,778 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,179 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-1,177 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-401 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-286 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the continued divergence in the US Dollar Index price and the US Dollar Index speculator positioning.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks. This is a total decline of -22,923 contracts over the ten-week period and has brought the USD Index positioning to a new multi-year low dating back to March 3rd of 2021.

Despite this recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has continued to go the opposite way of the speculators – which are usually trend-following and buying price on the way up while doing the opposite on the way down.

The DX rose by almost 1 percent this week and has now gained for three weeks in a row as well as for seven increases out of the past eight weeks. The DX broke through the 106.50-107.00 resistance level this week with a high above 108.00 before settling back to close the week at approximately 107.50. This is the highest weekly close since the fourth quarter of 2022. Next up, look for overhead resistance in the 109.00-110.00 areas if the bullish trend continues.

Euro bets drop sharply, exchange rate on the downswing

Euro currency bets dropped sharply by over -35,120 net contracts this week and pretty much erased the gains of the past two weeks (+14,216 contracts on Nov 12th and +28,651 contracts on Nov. 5th). Speculator positioning in the Euro has been volatile in the past few months but overall, bets have been going mostly bearish for the currency. Over the past eleven weeks, Euro net positions have in total dropped by -142,575 contracts and have taken the position from a total of +100,018 contracts on September 3rd to this week’s standing of -42,557 net contracts.

The Euro exchange rate has been taking it on the chin and has dropped by over 1 percent in each of the past three weeks. After ascending to a 2024-high in September at over 1.1200, the Euro has spiraled lower in quick work and closed this week at approximately 1.0420. This is over a 7 percent decrease in just two months. If the currency continues to slide through the 1.0400 resistance, we can look for the 1.0250 level and eventually the Euro could test parity at 1.00 to the US Dollar. The Euro last fell to parity and below in the second half of 2022 with the Euro dropping all the way to the 0.9602 level which marked the lowest level in over two decades.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (55 percent) and the British Pound (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (18.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (54.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (61.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (25.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (97.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (5.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)


Brazilian Real tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is currently the only positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-38 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.2 percent)
EuroFX (-34.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-23.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-16.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-37.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (29.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.623.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.918.78.3
– Net Position:-2,7131,921792
– Gross Longs:22,6138,8833,891
– Gross Shorts:25,3266,9623,099
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.931.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-1.215.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.460.611.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.957.48.3
– Net Position:-42,55721,04721,510
– Gross Longs:154,305399,00276,465
– Gross Shorts:196,862377,95554,955
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.396.119.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.435.6-32.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.036.512.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.854.113.3
– Net Position:40,315-39,066-1,249
– Gross Longs:101,71380,54728,148
– Gross Shorts:61,398119,61329,397
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.245.859.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.727.4-33.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.152.814.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.533.415.7
– Net Position:-46,86849,209-2,341
– Gross Longs:78,973134,06537,427
– Gross Shorts:125,84184,85639,768
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.946.658.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.331.9-8.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.984.010.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.720.429.7
– Net Position:-37,07152,622-15,551
– Gross Longs:4,03669,4999,009
– Gross Shorts:41,10716,87724,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 14.1 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.885.35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.641.5-49.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -183,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.982.08.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.627.310.7
– Net Position:-183,566190,676-7,110
– Gross Longs:23,904285,75530,046
– Gross Shorts:207,47095,07937,156
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.794.69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.343.0-29.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.735.813.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.350.715.8
– Net Position:31,598-27,106-4,492
– Gross Longs:86,70364,98724,189
– Gross Shorts:55,10592,09328,681
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.713.838.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.313.8-54.9

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.964.64.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.235.48.5
– Net Position:-18,43821,323-2,885
– Gross Longs:21,76247,0923,323
– Gross Shorts:40,20025,7696,208
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.494.616.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.945.4-64.9

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.550.02.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.557.94.7
– Net Position:14,014-11,007-3,007
– Gross Longs:60,64269,5813,539
– Gross Shorts:46,62880,5886,546
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.363.66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.48.1-9.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.032.73.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.024.13.0
– Net Position:-7,2777,003274
– Gross Longs:43,89826,5552,703
– Gross Shorts:51,17519,5522,429
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.255.822.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-2.5-0.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.64.74.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.71.52.5
– Net Position:-2,0841,294790
– Gross Longs:31,1521,9171,833
– Gross Shorts:33,2366231,043
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.895.768.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.510.528.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

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USD/JPY Awaits Potential Stimulus Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains stable at approximately 154.30 amid global economic fluctuations and expectations of potential Japanese stimulus measures.

Japan’s latest inflation data for October revealed a decline to 2.3%, marking the lowest level in nine months and potentially easing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for immediate rate hikes. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at a possible rate increase in December due to the yen’s prolonged weakness.

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted more than anticipated in November, while the service sector showed expansion, highlighting a mixed economic outlook.

Reports suggest the Japanese government may introduce a significant stimulus package worth 90 billion USD to mitigate the impact of inflation on households. While details remain undisclosed, the possibility of such measures has generated some optimism around the yen.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart: the USD/JPY is forming a consolidation pattern around 154.45. A downward breakout could lead to further movement towards 153.00, while an upward breakout might pave the way to 156.20, potentially extending to 157.60. The MACD indicator supports this USD/JPY outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending downwards, suggesting the pair is approaching a critical decision point.

H1 Chart: a consolidation around 154.45, potentially extending to 154.88, sets the stage for possible corrective movements towards 153.00. A subsequent recovery could push the pair to 156.20, marking a new growth phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates overbought conditions, signalling a likely retraction to lower levels, aligning with the potential for a near-term correction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

NZD/USD Under Pressure Amidst USD Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.5879, experiencing volatility as the market awaits the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Expectations are leaning towards a significant rate cut, with a 50-basis-point reduction considered the baseline scenario and a 25% probability of a more aggressive 75-basis-point cut.

Adding to the uncertainty are pessimistic projections from the New Zealand Treasury, suggesting potential delays in economic recovery, further weighing on sentiment around the NZD.

Internally, the US dollar’s strength, fuelled by mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in December, continues to exert substantial pressure on the NZD. Since the US election, the dollar has emerged as a dominant force, benefiting from robust domestic factors, and overshadowing other currencies that lack similar support, leading to their devaluation. As a result, the NZD, particularly vulnerable, reflects this broader depreciation trend against the USD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart of NZD/USD, the market corrected to the 0.5921 level. Today, a decline wave structure is forming at the 0.5858 level, marking the boundaries of the consolidation range. A downward exit from this range could indicate the potential for the wave to extend towards 0.5777. Alternatively, an upward exit may result in another corrective move towards 0.5944 before the price resumes its decline to 0.5777.  From a technical standpoint, this bearish outlook for NZD/USD is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and sloping downward.

On the H1 chart of NZD/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.5875. Today, another decline wave towards 0.5777 is likely to develop. At this level, the wave is expected to exhaust its downside potential. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USDJPY bulls venture into intervention zone

By ForexTime

  • USDJPY less than 4% from multi-decade top
  • Yen worst performing G10 currency vs USD this week
  • Rallied over 10% from September 2024 low
  • Bloomberg medium forecast for intervention at 160.00
  • Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72% of trading within 153.46 – 157.95 over 1-week period

Here’s something for USDJPY traders this week…

The Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the dollar and is trading less than 4% away from its multi-decade high at 161.95!

yen weekly

After pushing above 156.00 for the first time since July, investors are on alert for possible currency intervention from Japanese authorities.

Looking at the charts, prices have rallied over 10% from its September 2024 low at 139.57 – securing 7 consecutive weeks of gains.

USDJPY

The yen’s recent weakness could be attributed to an improving market mood and uncertainty over the timing of Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Zooming out, it remains the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar year-to-date, shedding nearly 10%.

YTDss

 

Taking a trip back memory lane…

The USDJPY witnessed significant price swings earlier this year after Japanese authorities intervened to support its currency.

  • Japan spent ¥9.8 trillion during interventions in late April and early May after the USDJPY touched 160.00.
  • Another ¥5.5 trillion was spent in early July after the Yen weakened to its lowest level since 1986 at 161.95.

According to a survey of 53 economists carried out by Bloomberg, the medium forecast of the Yen that could spark intervention was 160.

This is less than 3% away from the current price level at 155.70.

With all the above discussed, here are 3 things that could impact the USDJPY this week:

 

    1) US data + Fed speeches

Key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could influence the dollar.

Investors will direct their attention towards the weekly initial jobless claims, November PMI’s to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from various Fed officials may offer clues on the central bank’s next policy move.

  • A solid set of strong data and hawkish comments by Fed officials may cool Fed cut bets. If this strengthens the dollar, the USDJPY may push higher as a result.
  • If US economic data disappoints and Fed officials sound dovish, a weaker dollar may send the USDJPY lower.

 

    2) Tokyo October consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists expect:

  • CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023): 2.3% – down from 2.5%
  • CPI year-on-year (excluding fresh food): 2.2% – down from 2.4%
  • CPI year-on-year (excluding fresh food and energy): 2.2% – down from 2.1%

Ultimately, signs of cooling inflationary pressures could further reduce expectations around the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 53% probability of a 25-basis point hike by December, with the odds jumping to nearly 80% by January 2025.

The main theme likely to influence the USDJPY for the rest of 2024 may be central bank expectations.

Investors are questioning the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates one more time this year, while the BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda recently struck a cautious note on future rate hikes.

 

    3) Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading firmly above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near overbought territory.

  • A solid daily close above 155.00 could encourage a move toward 156 and 157.95 – the upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.  
  • Should prices slip below 155.00, this may send the USDJPY back toward 154.00 and the 21-day SMA at 153.50.

usdjpy daily

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 72% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 153.46 – 157.95 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

AUD/USD Consolidates After Recent Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar against the US dollar is currently experiencing a pause in its recent upward trajectory, stabilising around 0.6525 on the H4 chart. After three sessions of gains, the currency pair is undergoing a period of consolidation, likely preparing for a return to a stable ascending trend.

The slight retreat in the US dollar, driven by profit-taking after its rally and anticipation of new developments in the US Treasury under President Donald Trump, has influenced the performance of the AUD.

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting highlight the bank’s commitment to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation consistently approaches the target range. The RBA remains open to adjusting its policy stance in response to changing economic conditions, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut in the coming months, with a 37% probability in February and 58% in April.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: The AUD/USD pair is currently in a phase of correction following a downturn that saw the local decline target at 0.6440 reached. The market is forming a corrective wave towards 0.6543. If this correction is completed, a new downtrend towards 0.6380 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish AUD/USD outlook, positioned below the zero line and poised to descend to new lows.

H1 chart: On the H1 chart, AUD/USD is approaching the correction target near 0.6543, forming a consolidation pattern just below this level. The breakout from this consolidation is expected to be downwards, initiating another phase of decline. The immediate target for this decline is set at 0.6464. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this bearish forecast, with its signal line pointing downwards towards the 20 mark, indicating potential further declines.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

RoboForex Receives Best Introducing Broker Programme Award

RoboForex, which provides brokerage services for trading in global financial markets, has won the “Best Introducing Broker Programme – LatAM” at the prestigious Global Forex Awards – Retail 2024.

This accolade recognises the success of the RoboForex Infinity program, an innovative evolution of the Company’s partner programs launched in February 2024. Infinity offers RoboForex partners up to 85% of the average spread from clients’ closed positions and 20% of daily swaps on open client positions. The program aims to expand the Company’s partner network by providing robust opportunities for partners to maximise their earnings while extending their business reach. The initiative has had a particularly significant impact in Latin America, where it garnered widespread support from traders during the official voting process for the Global Forex Awards.

Now in its sixth year, the Global Forex Awards – Retail celebrates excellence in trading and investment by recognising companies that excel in innovation, technology, and customer service. Winners are determined through open voting across 59 categories covering global and regional markets, including Africa, Asia, Europe, LatAm, and the Middle East.

“For six years, we have led the way in highlighting those forex brokers making the greatest strides globally, both in technology and customer service,” explains Mike Boydell, Director of Holiston Media. “This year has been the biggest Global Forex Awards – Retail to date, and winning one of these coveted awards helps put any business on the map in this highly competitive industry.”

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/7. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.