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Trade Of The Week: EURUSD waits for directional spark

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD enters standby mode
  • EU data + ECB minutes in focus
  • USD volatility could trigger breakout
  • Key levels of interest at 1.0800 & 1.0700

After bouncing within a 100-pip range since early February, the world’s most-traded FX pair may be set for a big move.

The trend is bearish on the H4/daily timeframe but bulls have put up a good fight with support at 1.0700 and resistance at 1.0800.

It is a similar story on the weekly charts with the bullish pin bar signalling a potential reversal if prices push back above the 50-week SMA.

Nevertheless, the recent price action suggests that the EURUSD needs fresh motivation to trigger a potential breakout.

Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on:

  1. EU data + ECB minutes

The euro could turn volatile from mid-week due to key EU data and the ECB meeting minutes.

Key reports in the form of the Eurozone consumer confidence and latest inflation readings among others may provide fresh insights on the future path of ECB interest rates. It will be wise to keep an eye on data from Germany, the largest economy in Europe.

Regarding the ECB minutes, investors are likely to closely scrutinise them for any clues on the timings of rate cuts.

Traders are currently pricing in a 45% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by April, with a cut fully priced in by June.

These odds are likely to be influenced by the incoming data from Europe this week.

  • The EURUSD may push higher if overall EU economic data and minutes signal that the ECB may need more time before cutting interests.
  • Should economic data disappoint, inflation cools and the minutes sound dovish – the EURUSD may fall.
  1. Fed minutes + speeches

The Fed minutes and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may inject renewed life into the dollar.

Although much has changed since the January meeting, it could provide investors with some insight into why Fed officials held off on cutting rates in March despite signs of cooling inflation.  Speeches by Fed officials will be closely scrutinized by market players for fresh clues on the timings of Fed interest rate cuts.

  • Should the dollar end up weakening this week, the EURUSD is likely to push higher.
  • If the dollar strengthens as data and Fed officials further dampen hopes of early cuts, the EURUSD has the potential to tumble.
  1. Technical forces

The EURUSD is bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

  • A bearish daily close below 1.0800 may trigger a selloff back towards the 1.0700 support.
  • A strong breakout and daily close above 1.0800 may encourage a move towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0825 and resistance at 1.0869 just below the 50-day SMA.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 78% chance that EURUSD trades within the 1.0687 – 1.0869 over the next week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound Sterling & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (15,997 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (13,615 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,577 contracts), Canadian Dollar (2,254 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (463 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-27,306 contracts), the EuroFX (-9,315 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-7,163 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-447 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-314 contracts) and Bitcoin (-398 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued rise in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling.

Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +16,000 contracts and have gained in seven consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has added a total of +36,380 contracts to the net position over these last seven weeks and has brought the net level from a total of +14,092 contracts on December 26th to this week’s currently standing of +50,472 contracts. This marks the most bullish position for the GBP speculators since August 22nd, a span of twenty-five weeks.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate (GBPUSD currency pair) against the US Dollar has been oscillating around the 1.2500 exchange level over the past week despite recent downbeat economic news. The UK economy has recently dipped into a technical recession with declining GDP in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2023. However, with inflation still high, traders and market watchers still see the Bank of England holding their interest rates at high levels which could provide support for the UK currency.

The Pound exchange continues to be in a weekly uptrend since a recent dive in October when prices were falling and dipped as low as 1.2050. The currency has also come down from the most recent high levels of the current uptrend (topping out around 1.2800) and has now settled in right above the 200-day moving average with this week’s close trading at 1.2609.


Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (64 percent), Brazilian Real (60 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the Australian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and Bitcoin (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.1 percent)
EuroFX (42.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (46.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (90.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (29.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (59.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (60.0 percent)
Bitcoin (37.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.5 percent)

 

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (10 percent), the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Bitcoin (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-33 percent), the EuroFX (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.7 percent)
EuroFX (-28.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (4.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.515.311.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.225.17.8
– Net Position:2,002-3,1791,177
– Gross Longs:21,0964,9163,675
– Gross Shorts:19,0948,0952,498
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.973.224.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.7-2.623.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 52,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.559.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.368.87.8
– Net Position:52,838-72,26419,426
– Gross Longs:210,848437,26676,997
– Gross Shorts:158,010509,53057,571
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.862.210.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.431.9-29.5

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.536.312.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.159.914.4
– Net Position:50,472-46,883-3,589
– Gross Longs:90,54572,28925,127
– Gross Shorts:40,073119,17228,716
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.819.451.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.5-16.6-11.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -111,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.263.714.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.825.915.4
– Net Position:-111,536115,172-3,636
– Gross Longs:58,554194,06743,189
– Gross Shorts:170,09078,89546,825
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.888.871.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.237.0-16.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.058.418.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.031.034.8
– Net Position:-6,01415,080-9,066
– Gross Longs:12,68932,14810,071
– Gross Shorts:18,70317,06819,137
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.860.236.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.323.8-46.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.157.118.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.552.819.6
– Net Position:-5,4826,958-1,476
– Gross Longs:35,69892,18830,243
– Gross Shorts:41,18085,23031,719
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.555.819.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.1-0.9-31.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.864.49.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.418.815.2
– Net Position:-78,97690,985-12,009
– Gross Longs:47,405128,46518,320
– Gross Shorts:126,38137,48030,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.585.723.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.045.8-60.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.937.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.848.28.9
– Net Position:3,407-4,5051,098
– Gross Longs:19,63215,6684,819
– Gross Shorts:16,22520,1733,721
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.334.466.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.3-4.7-23.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.538.72.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.678.31.1
– Net Position:100,444-105,0424,598
– Gross Longs:147,176102,6327,407
– Gross Shorts:46,732207,6742,809
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.040.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.9-7.58.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.635.45.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.873.72.2
– Net Position:19,348-21,3211,973
– Gross Longs:32,62119,6933,211
– Gross Shorts:13,27341,0141,238
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.639.452.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.419.4-3.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.36.17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.11.53.9
– Net Position:-1,9211,152769
– Gross Longs:19,1471,5141,725
– Gross Shorts:21,068362956
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 14.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.594.030.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.5-2.1-5.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, Dow, Corn & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 6.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 100,444 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 20,369 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -616 contracts in speculator bets.


British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 24.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,472 net contracts this week with a jump of 15,997 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 586,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 30,099 contracts in the speculator bets.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 89.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.1 this week.

The speculator position was 60,084 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,101 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -245,939 net contracts this week with a decline of -16,517 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.3 this week. The speculator position was -13,511 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -11,545 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.9 this week. The speculator position was -161,751 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -934 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Copper


Finally, the Copper speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Copper speculator level is at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.2 this week. The speculator position was -32,697 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,987 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Target Thursdays: USDInd, Bitcoin & XAGUSD hit target prices

By ForexTime 

  • USDInd bulls bags over 350 index points
  • Bitcoin secures 2 out of 4 profit levels
  • Silver eyes 4th and final M15 profit target

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  1. USDInd bullish breakout

After struggling for direction in recent days, the USDInd has soared to its highest level in three-months.

  • TP hit: YES, prices blasted through 104.679 – the 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio.
  • Why: Sticky US inflation data prompted investors to cut back bets on Fed rate cuts.
  • Technicals: Decisive breakout above 104.31 level and D1 channel resistance.

  1. Bitcoin hits fresh 2024 high

Bitcoin has seen spectacular bullish action over the past two weeks, especially after the cryptocurrency surged to a fresh 2024 high!

  • TP hit: YES, 2 out of the 4 profit targets have been hit so far.
  • Why: Positive sentiment towards cryptocurrency amid growing success of bitcoin ETFs.
  • Technicals: H4 Momentum, MACD and 50 LWMA point to further upside.

 

  1. Silver nears 4th profit level

Silver prices kicked off Thursday morning on a positive note with prices breaking through the bullish prices targets on the M15 timeframe.

  • TP hit: YES, 3 out of the 4 profit targets have been hit his morning.
  • Why: The precious metal seems to be drawing strength from a weaker dollar
  • Technicals: Prices bullish on M15 timeframe. Momentum and MACD signal further upside.

The above scenario (XAGUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

This can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

USDInd: Braces for breakout ahead of CPI

By ForexTime 

  • USDInd waits for fundamental spark
  • Watch out for US inflation report
  • Descending channel on H4 charts
  • Key levels of interest at 104.31 & 104.00
  • Possible breakout on horizon

After struggling for direction over the last few days, the USDInd could be injected with fresh volatility due to the incoming US inflation report.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices of a basket of goods and services over a period.

Given how today’s CPI data has the potential to influence expectations around when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024, it will most likely move the USDInd.

Markets are expecting US inflation to slow to 2.9% from 3.4% on an annual basis while the core which strips out volatile food and energy prices is expected to cool 3.7% compared to 3.9%.

Ultimately, further signs of cooling inflation may fuel Fed cut bets, weakening the dollar as a result.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 70% probability of a 25 basis point US rate rate cut in May.

These odds may be influenced by the incoming inflation report along with other key US data this week.

Note: USDInd tracks how the US dollar performs against a basket of its G10 peers including EUR, GBP, JPY, and others.

Technically Speaking

USDInd, on the daily timeframe is in an upward sloping channel which began on December 28 2023.

In addition, the last 6 days of trading have seen it move in a sideways range of about 718points.

At the time of writing, there is potentially, about 260 point move to test the sideways ranges resistance at 104.512.

On the 4-hour time frame however, the index is in a descending triangle and testing this patterns resistance at the time of writing.

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book “The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”

A descending triangle in a bullish market:

  • Is an intermediate-term bullish continuation pattern.
  • Rises 38% on average.
  • Meets its price target 64% of the time.

An upward breakout of the descending triangle (a more likely scenario with a hotter than expected CPI data), may lead to a test of the following levels.

  • 104.512: – The channel resistance on the daily time frame

  • 104.679: – The 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio

On the other hand, a downward breakout of the descending triangle (a more likely scenario with a cooler than expected CPI data), may lead to the test of the following levels.

  • 103.917: – The sideways channels support on D1

  • 103.710: – The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

  • 103.524: – The 50-day Exponential Moving Average


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Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD bears ready to strike?

By ForexTime 

  • Data heavy week for GBPUSD
  • UK data dump set to influence Pound
  • Dollar volatility also on the cards
  • Significant move on horizon
  • Key levels of interest at 50 SMA and 200 SMA

This could be an eventful week for the GBPUSD due to key economic reports from both the UK and the US.

Although prices have edged higher over the past few days, a massive range can be observed on the weekly charts.

There is a similar theme on the daily charts with resistance at the 50 SMA and support at the 200-day SMA.

After the aggressive US NFP-induced selloff witnessed earlier this month, the GBPUSD could resume its decline with the right fundamental forces.

Here are 3 factors to keep a close eye on:

  1. UK data dump 

The mid-month data dump featuring employment, inflation, and GDP among other key releases could offer fresh insight into the health of the UK economy.

  • Tuesday, February 13: UK January unemployment report

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.0% in Q4 from Q3.

  • Wednesday, February 14: UK January CPI report 

The latest inflation report could rock Sterling, especially if it could offer more clues on the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) rates in 2024. Inflation is forecast to rise 4.1% year on year, up from 4% in December while the core is also forecast to hit 5.2%, up from 5.1%.

  • Thursday, February 15: UK industrial production & Q4 GDP 

Another major release will be the fourth quarter GDP report which is expected to show a second consecutive drop of 0.1% – confirming that the UK slipped into a technical recession at the end of 2023.

  • Friday, February 16: UK January retail sales

UK retail sales are forecast to fall -1.8% year-on-year in January compared to -2.4% in the previous month.

Potential GBP scenarios:

  • Sterling could appreciate if UK data including CPI exceed market forecasts – forcing investors to push back BoE cut bets.
  • Should overall data disappoint with UK inflation printing below forecasts, this may bolster BoE cut expectations – weakening the pound as a result.
  1. Key US data 

Dollar volatility could be a key theme due to a string of top-tier data and Fed speeches. It may be wise to keep a very close eye on the US CPI report and retail sales figures. 

  • Tuesday, February 13: US January CPI report 

US inflation is forecast to cool to 2.9% from 3.4% on an annual basis. The core which strips out food and energy prices is forecast to cool 3.7% from 3.9% in the prior month.

  • Thursday, February 15: US January Retail sales

US retail sales are forecast to slip -0.1% in January MoM compared to 0.6% in the prior month.

Potential USD scenarios:

  • Dollar bulls may receive a boost if strong economic data and hot inflation figures prompt investors to claw back bets for aggressive Fed cuts.
  • Dollar bears have the potential to jump back into the scene on weak US data and further signs of cooling price pressures.
  1. Technical forces 

The GBPUSD seems to be gearing up for a breakout on the daily charts with resistance at the 50-day SMA and support at the 200-day SMA. 

  • A solid breakdown below the 200-day SMA at 1.2560 could open a path towards 1.2485.
  • Should prices push beyond the 50-day SMA at 1.2670, bulls may target the next resistance around 1.2750.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2487 – 1.2752 range over the next one-week period.


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RoboForex Introduces the Infinity Program: Revolutionising Partnership and Affiliate Marketing in Financial Trading

Belize City, Belize (7 February 2024) – RoboForex, a company that offers brokerage services in financial markets, announced the launch of its innovative Infinity Program, marking a significant evolution of its existing Partner Programs. Infinity provides partners with payouts of up to 85% of the average spread from clients’ closed positions and enables them to earn 20% from daily swaps on client open positions. This initiative aims to expand and incentivise RoboForex’s partner network, providing a well-structured opportunity to maximise profits and expand the business.

Infinity is designed as a comprehensive and highly competitive partner program, with a unique dual-layered approach to partner payouts. It combines a traditional approach with payouts of up to 85% of the average spread for the clients’ closed positions, and adds 20% commission from swaps daily for the opened positions.

According to average estimates, the Infinity Program is expected to increase commissions for partners up to 5.4 times compared to the previous VIP Partner Program. Starting from 5 February 2024, the Infinity Program is automatically available for all newly registered partners.

The Infinity Program also significantly shifts from the traditional percentage-based revenue share to a fixed commission amount model. This change aims to provide greater clarity and predictability in earnings, with examples illustrating diverse and lucrative opportunities available under the program. This fixed commission model represents a more transparent and direct approach to commissions, aligning with the program’s emphasis on clarity and partner benefits.

Another noteworthy feature of the Infinity Program is its innovative approach to swap commissions. Partners receive a generous 20% daily commission on swaps from opened positions of their referred clients, providing a steady and transparent everyday source of income.

Below is a summarised table representing some of the payout details:

InstrumentPayout from Spread, per lotPayout from Swap, per lot
GBPUSD9.3 USD (increased by 43%)up to 1.26 USD
XAUUSD8.8 USD (increased by 10%)up to 5.80 USD
EURUSD8.8 USD (increased by 35%)up to 1.92 USD
USDJPY8.3 USD (increased by 35%)up to 4.83 USD
USTechCash1.19 USD (increased by 83%)up to 0.70 USD
DE40Cash0.6 USD (increased by 445%)up to 0.68 USD

The Infinity Program also includes a robust sub-partner commission structure, maintaining a 10% of commission earned by sub-partners. For more information about the Infinity Program, please visit the corresponding webpage.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services, providing traders in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/7. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

 

 

USD Strengthens Following Strong Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The US dollar has seen a significant increase in strength against the Euro, with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.0770 by Monday morning. This movement is largely attributed to the recent release of robust employment sector reports in the US for January, which have shifted investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January revealed an impressive increase of 353 thousand jobs, far exceeding the anticipated 187 thousand. Additionally, December’s NFP figures were revised upwards to 333 thousand. Average hourly earnings also saw a notable rise of 0.6% month-over-month, doubling the forecast. These indicators suggest mounting inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s plans to normalize interest rates.

The latest employment data effectively solidified market projections, especially after Federal Reserve officials indicated that a rate cut in March was unlikely, with adjustments possibly being postponed until May.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The H4 chart analysis of EUR/USD indicates that a corrective wave reaching 1.0896 has concluded. The market is now in the midst of a downward trend aiming for 1.0722. Upon achieving this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.0808 might occur, serving as a test from below, before the trend resumes its descent towards 1.0682. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is positioned below zero and indicates a continued downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair has established a consolidation range around 1.0808. Following a downward breakout, the declining wave is expected to proceed towards 1.0722. After reaching this milestone, a correction back to 1.0808 could be anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50, suggests a potential climb to 80 before a decline to 20, reinforcing the bearish scenario outlined.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Trade Of The Week: AUDUSD bears to keep upper hand?

By ForexTime 

  • AUD down against most G10 YTD
  • RBA decision + US data in focus
  • AUDUSD bearish on D1 chart
  • Strong USD could spell more pain
  • Key level of interest at 0.6550

The past few weeks have certainly been rough and rocky for the Australian dollar!

It has weakened against almost every single G10 currency so far in 2024, shedding over 4.5% versus the dollar.

After closing almost 1% lower last Friday following the blow-out NFP report (that saw 353k US jobs added in January), the AUDUSD has entered the new week on a shaky note. It is worth noting that the commodity currency was already pressured by growth concerns and signs of falling inflation in Australia.

With the dollar set to appreciate as investors claw back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts, this could mean more pain for Aussie.

Here are 3 reasons why the AUDUSD is on our radar:

  1. RBA decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its February 6th policy meeting, keeping the cash rate at 4.35%.

Signs of rapidly cooling inflationary pressures in the final quarter of 2023 have reinforced bets around the central bank’s next move being a rate cut. This development coupled with the shaky economic outlook could lend RBA doves further support.

Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a rate cut by the RBA in June with a cut fully priced in by August 2024.

  • The Aussie is likely to weaken if the RBA strikes a dovish tone and signals that it’s next move will be a cut this year.
  • Should the RBA sound more hawkish and express intentions to keep rates higher for longer, this could push the Aussie higher.
  1. Dollar volatility

Dollar volatility could be a key theme this week as investors not only digest last Friday’s strong US jobs data but prepare for more key data and speeches by Fed officials.

The biggest event risk may be the US CPI revisions published on Friday. As highlighted in our week ahead report, this could heavily influence expectations around Fed rate cuts if there are any major revisions.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 77% probability of a Fed rate cut by May with a cut fully priced in by June 2024.

These odds could look different by the end of the week depending on incoming data and Fed speeches.

  • Should overall data and Fed speeches boost the dollar, this may drag the AUDUSD lower.
  • If the dollar ends up weakening, the AUDUSD could experience a technical bounce.
  1. Technical forces

Aussie bears are back in power after securing a daily close below the 0.6550 support. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. The trend is bearish but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are approaching oversold levels.

  • Sustained weakness below the 100-day SMA may encourage a decline towards 0.6430 and 0.6410, respectively.
  • Should prices push back above 0.6550, this could open a path towards the 200-day SMA at 0.6570.

 


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (6,063 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,294 contracts), British Pound (2,716 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,267 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (703 contracts) and the EuroFX (447 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,810 contracts) the Brazilian Real (-5,452 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,175 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,275 contracts) and Bitcoin (-137 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is recent the drop in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions dropped for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The decline over the last three weeks is a total of -24,506 contracts that has taken the speculative level from -55,949 net contracts on January 9th to this week’s total at -80,455 net contracts. The current level is now at the most bearish standing since December 12th.

The yen had seen a respite from the negative speculative bets in December and January (going from -104,956 contracts on December 5th to -55,949 on January 9th) as market watchers had been expecting the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will eventually look to end its negative interest rate policy. However, the BOJ has largely maintained their interest rate policy and thrown cold water onto the yen bulls (possibly) premature hopes.

The yen exchange rate (versus the US Dollar) has been on the back-foot now for four out of the past five weeks after having made gains through November and December. The US Dollar had fallen versus the yen and brought the USDJPY currency pair to the 140.25 mark in late December which was the best level for the yen since July. Since starting the new year, the yen has been declining and this week the USDJPY closed at approximately the 148.30 level – an almost 6 percent gain for the USD versus the yen since January 1st.


Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the British Pound (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (58 percent), the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Bitcoin (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (24.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.9 percent)
EuroFX (58.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (77.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (88.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.3 percent)
Bitcoin (39.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)

 

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the British Pound (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-11 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.9 percent)
EuroFX (-11.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-25.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (9.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-33.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.7 percent)
Bitcoin (8.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.1 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.015.411.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.518.39.8
– Net Position:372-739367
– Gross Longs:17,2383,9642,878
– Gross Shorts:16,8664,7032,511
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.777.215.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.04.013.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 88,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.659.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.375.47.1
– Net Position:88,771-116,00627,235
– Gross Longs:200,360432,31178,589
– Gross Shorts:111,589548,31751,354
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.145.822.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.011.1-6.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.337.715.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.557.213.7
– Net Position:34,153-37,3803,227
– Gross Longs:77,49972,53229,604
– Gross Shorts:43,346109,91226,377
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.524.864.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-5.6-8.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.661.617.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.828.417.2
– Net Position:-80,45580,134321
– Gross Longs:44,918148,97241,873
– Gross Shorts:125,37368,83841,552
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.768.883.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.310.3-5.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.252.825.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.437.732.8
– Net Position:-3,9047,222-3,318
– Gross Longs:10,13725,24512,368
– Gross Shorts:14,04118,02315,686
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.845.760.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-3.9-1.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.554.420.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.057.116.0
– Net Position:-2,388-4,2006,588
– Gross Longs:39,10186,76332,032
– Gross Shorts:41,48990,96325,444
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.148.937.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.6-34.26.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.359.113.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.523.613.6
– Net Position:-58,29558,847-552
– Gross Longs:36,95697,88821,902
– Gross Shorts:95,25139,04122,454
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.461.451.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.09.5-12.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.245.112.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.045.98.8
– Net Position:-1,040-2891,329
– Gross Longs:14,11416,6824,588
– Gross Shorts:15,15416,9713,259
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.744.066.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-3.9-7.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 80,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.141.63.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.075.81.0
– Net Position:80,393-85,7175,324
– Gross Longs:132,808103,9317,803
– Gross Shorts:52,415189,6482,479
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.210.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.20.616.9

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.138.14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.564.41.6
– Net Position:18,298-20,4242,126
– Gross Longs:37,24829,4543,388
– Gross Shorts:18,95049,8781,262
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.240.554.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.134.2-15.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.96.16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:88.61.13.2
– Net Position:-1,7981,017781
– Gross Longs:16,5191,2531,435
– Gross Shorts:18,317236654
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 15.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.390.630.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-7.3-6.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.