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USD/JPY Approaches 160.00: Is Another Intervention Coming?

USD/JPY continued its advance on Monday, reaching 159.46. The Japanese yen therefore remains under pressure near the key 160.00 level against the US dollar. This was the threshold that previously triggered currency market interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Data released on Friday confirmed that Japan spent JPY 11.7 trillion supporting its national currency at the end of April. As a result, the market received official confirmation of the large-scale intervention that traders had previously only suspected.

With the exchange rate approaching 160.00 once again, investors continue to assess the likelihood of further action from the Bank of Japan. The market remains divided over whether the central bank will opt for another interest rate increase this month. Uncertainty is being amplified by risks associated with the situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy.

Investor attention is now focused on upcoming speeches by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. His comments could provide fresh clues regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Additional pressure on the yen came from disappointing corporate investment data. Capital expenditure by Japanese companies in the first quarter showed no growth compared with the previous year. This points to slowing business investment activity and raises concerns about the sustainability of domestic economic growth.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around the 159.00 level. A breakout to the upside is developing a growth wave towards 159.77. We expect this target to be reached today, followed by a pullback towards 159.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero and is pointing firmly upwards, indicating potential for further gains.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming an upward structure towards 159.60. A corrective move to 159.20 may follow before another advance towards 159.60 and potentially 159.77. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line above the 50 level and rising towards 80, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains firmly supported as the yen struggles against weak domestic fundamentals and ongoing global uncertainty. With the pair approaching the critical 160.00 level, traders are increasingly focused on the risk of renewed intervention by Japanese authorities and any policy signals from the Bank of Japan.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 May

New Zealand Dollar Speculators raise Bets as NZD rises on possible higher interest rates

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the New Zealand Dollar (6,434 contracts) with the British Pound (2,909 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,797 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,329 contracts), Brazilian Real (639 contracts) and the Bitcoin (170 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-37,651 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-25,489 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-20,762 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,095 contracts) and the EuroFX (-4,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

New Zealand Dollar Speculators raise Bets as NZD rises on possible higher interest rates

Leading the Currencies market speculator positioning this week was the New Zealand Dollar. The NZD saw speculator bets go higher by almost 6,500 contracts this week and has now improved in two out of the past three weeks. Helping out the New Zealand Dollar contracts – as well as the NZD market price this week – was speculation out of the New Zealand Central Bank that future interest rates would likely be on the rise due to higher inflation risks. This helped move the NZD market price this week go higher by 2% against the US Dollar in the foreign exchange markets. The speculator position, meanwhile, remains overall bearish, with a weekly standing of -34,179 contracts. The NZD speculative standing has now remained in a bearish position for the past 45 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 15th of 2025. We shall see if this new information and possible bias for higher interest rates will dampen the existing bearish sentiment for traders and speculators.

The Canadian Dollar is next up in speculative positioning major changes this week as the CAD speculators dropped their positions by -37,651 contracts. This was the third consecutive week that Canadian Dollar positions have fallen or gone more bearish overall as fluctuating crude oil prices have had a volatile effect on speculator positioning. The Canadian Dollar speculative standing this week sits at -68,882 contracts, which is the most bearish level of the past six weeks. In the foreign exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar is still within its ascending triangle, although currently the CAD is near the bottom of its ascending trend line at the moment and still slightly below its 200-week moving average. But the Canadian Dollar was marginally higher this week and trades around the 0.7254 threshold which means there’s still waiting to be done to see if the CAD breaks out of its ascending triangle soon.

Next up, the Australian Dollar speculative position fell sharply this week after four consecutive weeks of increases. The AUD speculative position remains in a strong bullish level at a total of 60,155 net contracts. The overall position continues to have a strong strength score with an 86.8% score of the range of the past three years, which categorizes as bullish extreme. In the foreign exchange market, the Australian Dollar continues to show strength, and this week gained after falling in the two previous weeks. The AUD closed above the 0.7180 price level and could be rising higher to test the 2026 high (and the highest levels the currency has seen since 2022).

The Japanese Yen speculative position continues to accumulate bearish positions for a third consecutive week this week. The Japanese Yen speculators have now added a total of -52,929 net contracts to a bearish position over just the past three weeks and brings the total bearish level to -114,667 contracts. This is the most bearish position since July 16th of 2024, a span of 97 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets, the Japanese Yen was down just a bit this week, and the volatility of the currency has taken a hit after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market to stem the weakness of the JPY a few weeks ago. The current level of the Japanese Yen is back near the price where the BOJ intervened, and traders are understandably treading cautiously.

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculative position this week rose modestly by 1,329 contracts. This has taken the overall net position out of the small bearish position of May 19th to this week’s small bullish position of +850 contracts. The US Dollar Index contracts have been in bullish territory for 10 out of the last 11 weeks. Overall, in the big picture of things, the current positioning marks a very neutral level. In the foreign exchange markets, we have not seen much change for the US Dollar Index as it continues to trade in its well-established range of between 96.50 on the low side and with the significant resistance level of 100.00 on the upside. This week, the Dollar Index dipped and continues almost in the middle of its range to trade at 98.85.

Currencies Price Performance Leaders

The New Zealand Dollar leads Currency market price performances. In the major international Currency market price performances, the New Zealand Dollar came in at the highest weekly gain with a 2.02% increase. The Australian Dollar came in next with a 0.36% rise, followed by the Euro, which was up by 0.24%, and the Swiss Franc, which was also up by 0.24%. The Canadian Dollar rounds out the gainers for the week with a 0.10% uptick.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling edged lower with a -0.06% slide, followed by the Brazilian Real, which dipped by -0.08%. Next up, the US Dollar Index was slightly lower with a -0.16% shortfall, followed by the Japanese Yen, which was lower by -0.18%. The Mexican Peso dipped by -0.42% on the week.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which saw a fall by -2.60%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (95 percent) and the Brazilian Real (92 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (87 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (14 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (71.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (86.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (42.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (92.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (91.6 percent)
Bitcoin (94.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (4 percent), the Bitcoin (2 percent) and the EuroFX (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the British Pound (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.2 percent)
EuroFX (1.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (1.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -479 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	33.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	39.6	4.3
– Net Position:	850	-2,413	1,563
– Gross Longs:	22,732	14,337	3,364
– Gross Shorts:	21,882	16,750	1,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	50.0	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	8.2	25.7

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -4,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,513 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	57.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	65.0	6.4
– Net Position:	29,426	-65,524	36,098
– Gross Longs:	223,055	469,886	88,813
– Gross Shorts:	193,629	535,410	52,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	58.5	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.0	-0.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -61,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,307 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	67.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	45.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-61,398	63,548	-2,150
– Gross Longs:	57,978	191,611	28,467
– Gross Shorts:	119,376	128,063	30,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.0	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.7	6.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -20,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,905 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	57.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.3	32.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-114,667	107,692	6,975
– Gross Longs:	112,993	244,888	46,540
– Gross Shorts:	227,660	137,196	39,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	78.1	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.7	12.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,937 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	82.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	39.7	20.2
– Net Position:	-35,140	45,171	-10,031
– Gross Longs:	7,118	87,063	11,286
– Gross Shorts:	42,258	41,892	21,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	73.1	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	7.3	-14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -68,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -37,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,231 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	65.6	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	41.4	11.7
– Net Position:	-68,882	71,845	-2,963
– Gross Longs:	53,676	195,307	31,797
– Gross Shorts:	122,558	123,462	34,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	46.8	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.6	-8.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -25,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,644 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	40.5	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	67.1	6.5
– Net Position:	60,155	-80,432	20,277
– Gross Longs:	129,129	122,598	39,822
– Gross Shorts:	68,974	203,030	19,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	13.7	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	4.5	-11.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 6,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,613 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	82.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	42.0	7.0
– Net Position:	-34,179	36,990	-2,811
– Gross Longs:	11,721	75,380	3,570
– Gross Shorts:	45,900	38,390	6,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	75.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-7.6	-17.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,249 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	50.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	81.7	1.4
– Net Position:	58,154	-63,390	5,236
– Gross Longs:	90,541	100,952	8,046
– Gross Shorts:	32,387	164,342	2,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	55.2	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.1	3.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,012 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.2	17.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	67.0	1.0
– Net Position:	71,651	-74,812	3,161
– Gross Longs:	96,204	27,253	4,757
– Gross Shorts:	24,553	102,065	1,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	7.8	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-22.0	-5.0

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,112 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	1.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.7	12.0	5.4
– Net Position:	2,282	-2,390	108
– Gross Longs:	17,146	212	1,267
– Gross Shorts:	14,864	2,602	1,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	3.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-7.7	13.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

29 May

Week Ahead: Dollar in the crosshairs

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 0.8% YTD
Iran conflict + US NFP combo = fresh volatility?
Over past year, NFP triggered moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 1.2%
NFP forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.4%
Technical levels: 99.50, 50-day, 200-day SMA

The first full trading week of June is packed with high-impact events.

A volley of market-moving events, the US May jobs report, the OECD economic outlook and speeches from the financial heavyweights set the stage for serious volatility.

Monday, 1st June

• AUD: Australia Melbourne Institute inflation gauge

• CNY: China RatingDog manufacturing PMI

• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI, unemployment, inflation expectations

• GBP: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Nationwide house prices

• USDInd: ISM Manufacturing, S&P Global manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 2nd June

• EUR: Eurozone CPI

• USDInd: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech

Wednesday, 3rd June

• AUD: Australia GDP

• CNY: China RatingDog services PMI

• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global services PMI, PPI

• OECD releases its latest economic outlook

• USDInd: Fed Beige Book, ISM services index, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testimony

Thursday, 4th June

• EUR: Eurozone retail sales

• USDInd: US initial jobless claims, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

• GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

Friday, 5th June

• CAD: Canada unemployment

• EUR: Eurozone GDP

• GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

• USDInd: US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls

One instrument sits right at the centre of it all – FXTM’s USDInd.

Note: The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

Here is how they are weighed:

Euro: 57.6%
JPY: 13.6%
GBP: 11.9%
CAD: 9.1%
SEK: 4.2%
CHF: 3.6%

For weeks, the USD Index has been stuck…coiled inside a wide range, going nowhere fast.

Same story, different day.

But that range won’t hold forever with the lineup of key events potentially sparking a major move.

Here are 4 reasons why a breakout could be on the horizon:

1) US-Iran tentative deal

In a welcome development to global markets, the US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.

However, President Donald Trump has yet to agree to the terms.

Nevertheless, this marks a positive shift somewhat outweighing concerns about clashes in the Persian Gulf.

If Trump signs of the ceasefire deal, this may raise hopes of the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz – weakening the dollar as inflation fears cool.
Should the tentative deal fall apart, the dollar may rally on renewed inflation concerns and geopolitical risk

2) US May NFP report

The May US jobs report on Friday 5th June may provide critical insight into the health of the labour markets.

Here’s what economists predict for this closely watched jobs report:

Headline NFP figure: 93,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be a decline from the April 115,000 headline NFP figure.

Unemployment rate: 4.3%

If so, this would match April unemployment rate

Average hourly earnings month-on-month (May 2026 vs. APril 2026): 0.3%

If so, this would higher than April’s figure.

Note: Other key data in the week including the ADP and Fed speeches may influence gold prices.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs data may stimulate bets around the Fed hiking rates – boosting the USDInd.
A weaker-than-expected figure could cool bets around Fed hikes, weakening the USDInd.

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 56% chance that the Fed will hike rates by December 2026.

3) Major central bank speakers

A host of Fed speakers and financial heavyweights will be under the spotlight in the week ahead.

Central bank heads from BoE’s Andrey Bailey, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, RBA Governor Michele Bullock may share key insight into future policy moves and thoughts on inflation. This could translate into heightened volatility for the USDInd given how its weighted.

4) Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd remains in a wide range.

A solid breakout and daily close above 99.50 could trigger an incline towards the 100.00 and 100.67.
Should prices break below 98.90, bears could be encouraged to hit the 200-day SMA and 97.70.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 May

USD/JPY Rises Again: Dollar Strong, Inflation Risks High

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.19, with the yen remaining near its one-month lows following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The regulator warned of rising inflation risks but did not provide any clear signals regarding a potential rate increase at the next BoJ meeting.

Ueda noted the need to closely monitor the impact of high oil prices on inflation in Japan but did not specify how much these factors could influence the regulator’s decision in June.

At the same time, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino confirmed that the central bank remains ready for further rate hikes. However, the timing and pace of policy tightening will depend on how the Middle East conflict affects the Japanese economy and inflation.

Investors also continue to closely monitor the situation surrounding US-Iran talks. Despite isolated signs of progress in negotiations, ongoing military actions and tensions keep currency markets on edge.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 159.00 and is moving higher towards 159.60. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 159.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is moving higher towards 159.50. A correction to 159.00 may follow, before a further rise towards 159.60 and potentially 159.90. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing firmly upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside momentum remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its upward move as the dollar remains strong amid elevated inflation risks. The yen is hovering near one-month lows after BoJ Governor Ueda warned of rising inflation pressures but stopped short of signalling a near-term rate hike. While Deputy Governor Himino reaffirmed the BoJ’s readiness to tighten policy further, the timing remains dependent on how the Middle East conflict impacts Japan’s economy and inflation. Meanwhile, uncertainty persists around US-Iran negotiations, with isolated progress offset by continued military tensions. Technically, further upside towards 159.60–159.90 appears likely, with intervention risks remaining a key factor as the pair approaches psychologically significant levels.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 May

GBP/USD Under Pressure Amid Growing Domestic Concerns

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD retreated slightly on Tuesday after a positive Monday, moving down to 1.3486. The market continues to assess the economic data released late last week. The US dollar has so far drawn support from lingering uncertainty in the Middle East, which has encouraged investor caution and supported demand for safe-haven assets.

April data showed UK retail sales fell 1.3% month-on-month, the sharpest decline in nearly a year and noticeably worse than market forecasts. Consumers are cutting back on spending amid high fuel prices, rising energy bills, and concerns around the Middle East conflict.

Earlier labour market data also signalled a weakening outlook. Unemployment continues to rise, while real wage growth remains weak amid accelerating inflation.

Additional pressure on British assets comes from deteriorating public finances. The UK budget deficit in April was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with borrowing rising to £24.3 billion, the second-highest April figure on record.

Despite this, the pound has partially recovered from the political pressures of recent weeks. The market continues to monitor the situation surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the Labour Party’s weak results in local elections.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair has reached the 1.3500 level and is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3434. A move lower towards 1.3393 is likely in the near term. After this, the pair may consolidate, with potential for a move towards 1.3455 on the upside or a decline towards 1.3290 on the downside. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3494, currently extending up to 1.3500. A move lower towards 1.3393 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under pressure amid weak domestic data, deteriorating public finances, and political uncertainty, which continue to weigh on sterling. UK retail sales posted their sharpest decline in nearly a year, while the budget deficit rose to its highest post-pandemic level. Labour market conditions are also softening, with rising unemployment and weak wage growth despite accelerating inflation. Although the Middle East conflict continues to support safe-haven demand for the dollar, sterling has shown some resilience by recovering from recent political pressures. However, technical indicators point to further near-term downside towards 1.3393 and potentially 1.3290. The pound’s trajectory will likely depend on whether domestic economic concerns intensify or geopolitical developments shift the broader risk environment.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 May

EUR/USD Starts the Week Quietly

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the week around 1.1600. The main currency pair closed last week virtually unchanged. Markets continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite ongoing uncertainty, a series of conflicting signals from the US and Iran has bolstered investor hopes for a possible diplomatic agreement.

At the same time, oil prices remain approximately 50% higher than pre-conflict levels. This dynamic continues to sustain inflationary pressure, forcing major central banks to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed officials still allow for the possibility of additional rate hikes, particularly if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

US markets will be closed on Monday, so volatility in EUR/USD is expected to be minimal.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1616, currently extending up to 1.1640. A move lower to 1.1600 (testing from above) is likely, followed by a rise towards 1.1660. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of the next growth wave to the 1.1640 level. A decline to 1.1600 is likely, followed by a rise to 1.1660, and another decline to 1.1555. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading quietly at the start of the week, with markets caught between geopolitical hopes and persistent inflationary pressures. While conflicting signals from the US and Iran have raised expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices remain sharply elevated, around 50% above pre-conflict levels, keeping central banks on alert. FOMC minutes revealed that most Fed officials still see the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation stays above target, and markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. With US markets closed for a holiday, volatility is expected to remain subdued. Technically, near-term downside towards 1.1600 and potentially 1.1555 appears likely before any potential bounce.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 May

Australian Dollar Speculators continue to raise Bullish Bets for 4th straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (2,459 contracts) with Bitcoin (853 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (654 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,248 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-18,803 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-14,989 contracts), the EuroFX (-6,687 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,666 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,463 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,841 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-740 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Australian Dollar speculators continue to raise bullish bets for 4th straight week

Highlighting this week’s Currency market speculator positioning is the Australian Dollar’s continued speculator strength. The currency speculators raised their Australian Dollar bets very modestly by just 654 contracts, but have now pushed AUD bets higher for a fourth consecutive week—and for the 20th time out of the past 24 weeks—illustrating the recent strength for speculators in the Australian Dollar. In these past 24 weeks, the Australian Dollar has surged by almost +170,000 net contracts, going from a total position of -83,393 contracts on December 2nd to this week’s position of +85,644 net contracts. This week’s position is now the highest level for the Australian Dollar standing since 2013 and not far off from the all-time record, which was a total of 103,376 contracts on December 11th of 2012. In the Forex markets, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar has recently traded at four-year highs but has now dipped for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the AUD is trading at 0.7135, with major support at 0.7100 sitting below while recent highs were capped by resistance above around 0.7270.

The British Pound Sterling fell sharply this week by over -21,000 contracts, and has now has fallen for three out of the past four weeks. This weakness has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bearish level of the past nine weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the GBPUSD currency pair has been consolidating in sideways trading action for over a year against the USD, with support at the 1.3030 level and overhead resistance at the 1.3700 level. Currently, the price is right in the middle of that sideways channel at about 1.3447.

The Japanese Yen also saw lower levels in speculator bets this week by over -18,000 contracts. The speculator position for the Yen has been deteriorating since having a couple of weeks in bullish territory in February and has now seen speculator positions fall in 10 out of the past 13 weeks, with this week’s net speculator standing totaling -93,905 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Yen has fallen for three consecutive weeks following the Bank of Japan’s intervention to prop up the Yen in late April. The price is approaching those same levels where the BOJ intervened, and it will be interesting looking forward as the market tests the BOJ resolve once again.

The Canadian Dollar speculator bets fell this week by over -14,000 contracts and have fallen for two straight weeks. The CAD speculator position has now fallen in seven out of the past 10 weeks and right now, the Canadian Dollar’s overall speculator standing sits at -31,231 net contracts. In the Forex markets, the Canadian Dollar has declined for three consecutive weeks against the US Dollar and has fallen below its 200-weekly moving average. The CAD, however, continues to trade in an ascending triangle pattern, which has not broken to the downside or the upside yet and will likely resolve itself in the coming weeks.

The US Dollar Index speculator positions dropped this week by -3,666 contracts. This has flipped the US Dollar speculative position into an overall bearish position. This small bearish level represents the first bearish position since March 10th, a span of 10 weeks and signals an overall neutral position in the big scheme of things. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained in its trading range for basically one full year with a price of 100.00 on the upside and a lower support level of 96.50 representing the bottom of the trading range. At the moment, the US Dollar Index positioning is closer the top of the trading range at a closing price on the week of 99.01.

The British Pound Sterling topped Currency Market price performance.

Price performances for the Currency Markets on the week were led by the British Pound, which rose by almost 1% with a 0.94% 5-Day increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.72% rise and was followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which saw an uptick by 0.33%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc was modestly higher by 0.30% and was followed by the Mexican Peso, which rounded out the gainers with a 0.18% rise.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar Index were virtually unchanged with a -0.01% decline for each of those markets. The Japanese Yen was lower by -0.08%, followed by the Euro, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Canadian Dollar fell by -0.52%. The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which fell by -1.99%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (92 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (91 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.7 percent)
EuroFX (42.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (45.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (71.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (77.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (99.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (91.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (89.8 percent)
Bitcoin (91.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the EuroFX (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-13 percent), Bitcoin (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (16.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (7.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (11.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-8.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-19.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,187 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	34.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	38.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-479	-1,551	2,030
– Gross Longs:	21,403	13,920	3,791
– Gross Shorts:	21,882	15,471	1,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.4	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.0	15.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,200 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	65.1	6.4
– Net Position:	33,513	-66,535	33,022
– Gross Longs:	233,251	471,453	86,082
– Gross Shorts:	199,738	537,988	53,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.2	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-11.5	-16.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	66.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	42.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-64,307	68,698	-4,391
– Gross Longs:	68,075	190,244	25,040
– Gross Shorts:	132,382	121,546	29,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.0	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.3	5.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -93,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -18,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,102 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	57.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	34.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-93,905	90,766	3,139
– Gross Longs:	106,603	226,613	39,648
– Gross Shorts:	200,508	135,847	36,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	73.8	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	0.1	-0.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,197 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	83.0	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	38.1	20.2
– Net Position:	-36,937	46,775	-9,838
– Gross Longs:	6,284	86,464	11,198
– Gross Shorts:	43,221	39,689	21,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.0	75.7	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	13.2	-7.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -14,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,242 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	47.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-31,231	35,724	-4,493
– Gross Longs:	72,674	175,009	28,192
– Gross Shorts:	103,905	139,285	32,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	32.3	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-9.0	-5.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,990 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	33.3	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	69.7	5.7
– Net Position:	85,644	-109,572	23,928
– Gross Longs:	151,583	100,426	41,158
– Gross Shorts:	65,939	209,998	17,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.0	90.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-5.3	-5.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,150 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	83.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.2	36.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-40,613	43,497	-2,884
– Gross Longs:	12,319	76,920	2,879
– Gross Shorts:	52,932	33,423	5,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	83.0	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.2	-24.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,090 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	48.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	81.1	1.6
– Net Position:	62,249	-67,299	5,050
– Gross Longs:	95,246	98,026	8,400
– Gross Shorts:	32,997	165,325	3,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	52.5	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-3.8	4.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,553 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.8	21.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.6	0.8
– Net Position:	71,012	-74,999	3,987
– Gross Longs:	95,462	27,975	5,037
– Gross Shorts:	24,450	102,974	1,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.6	7.7	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-21.8	-2.3

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,112 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,259 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.4	0.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.2	10.8	4.8
– Net Position:	2,112	-2,272	160
– Gross Longs:	17,791	212	1,262
– Gross Shorts:	15,679	2,484	1,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	6.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	-0.9	24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

22 May

USD/JPY: Second Consecutive Week Closes Higher

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.04 at the end of the week, marking the yen’s second consecutive weekly decline. The Japanese currency came under pressure after weaker inflation data reduced expectations of imminent Bank of Japan policy tightening.

Core inflation in Japan slowed to 1.4% in April, down from 1.8% the previous month – the lowest level in four years. Moreover, the indicator has remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the third consecutive month.

At its April meeting, the BOJ sharply raised its core inflation forecast for the current year to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The regulator attributed this revision to high oil prices amid the Middle East conflict and the continued pass-through of business costs to consumers.

Additional market attention has been drawn to reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering an additional budget to compensate for rising energy prices.

At the same time, markets continue to monitor the risk of fresh foreign exchange interventions. The yen remains near the 160-per-dollar level — the level that triggered Japanese authorities’ interventions in late April and early May.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 158.68 and is moving higher towards 160.09. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 158.66, with scope for a further decline towards 157.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

USD/JPY is set to close its second consecutive week higher as the yen remains under pressure from softer-than-expected Japanese inflation data. Core inflation slowed to a four-year low of 1.4%, falling further below the BOJ’s 2% target and dampening expectations for near-term policy tightening. This contrasts with the BOJ’s upgraded inflation forecast of 2.8%, driven by energy costs related to the Middle East conflict. With the pair hovering near the critical 160 level, where Japanese authorities intervened in late April and early May, markets remain on high alert for potential intervention. Prime Minister Takaichi’s consideration of an additional budget to address energy prices adds another layer of complexity. Technically, further upside towards 160.09 appears likely in the near term.

Conclusion

GBP/USD stabilised following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, easing concerns about aggressive Bank of England rate hikes. However, the pound faces headwinds from a soft labour market and rising oil prices, suggesting that any recovery may be short-lived. Technical indicators point to a near-term correction before a potential continuation of the broader trend.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 May

Week Ahead: EURUSD inches toward make-or-break support

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↓ 1.1% YTD
Germany CPI + US PCE combo = fresh volatility?
EU Flash CPI forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.2%
US April PCE forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.6%
Bloomberg FX model – 71.1% EURUSD – (1.1510 – 1.1730)

The world’s most-traded FX pair is at a crossroads…and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

After a brief pause, EURUSD is heading straight for critical support at 1.1580.

This is the level that could define the pair’s direction for weeks to come. A clean break lower opens the door to steeper losses, while a firm bounce invites bulls back into the scene.

Bloomberg’s FX model puts a 71.1% probability of EURUSD trading within the 1.1510 – 1.1730 range this week – that’s a potential swing of over 100 pips.

Volatility is coming. The only question is which side it favours.

Why is the EURUSD under pressure

1) A broadly stronger dollar amid ongoing geopolitical risk, a limbo in peace talks and growing bets around higher US rates.

2) Technical forces may also be at play with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

Key inflation data from Germany and the United States could spell fresh opportunities for the EURUSD in the week ahead:

Monday, 25th May

• US Memorial Day holiday, with markets closed

Tuesday, 26th May

• GBP: UK CBI distributive trades

• USDInd: US Chicago Fed national activity index, CB consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

Wednesday, 27th May

• AUD: Australia CPI, RBA trimmed mean CPI, construction work done

• EUR: Eurozone new car registrations

• USDInd: US MBA mortgage rates, ADP employment change, API crude oil inventories

• JPY: BoJ Governor Ueda speech

Thursday, 28th May

• KRW: South Korea interest rate decision

• EUR: Eurozone economic sentiment, Italy business and consumer confidence, Spain business confidence

• CAD: Canada current account, BoC financial stability report

• USDInd: US Core PCE, PCE inflation, GDP second estimate, durable goods orders, personal income, personal spending, initial jobless claims, new home sales, EIA crude oil inventories

Friday, 29th May

• JPY: Japan unemployment, industrial production, consumer confidence, retail sales

• GBP: UK Nationwide house prices

• EUR: France, Spain, Italy and Germany preliminary CPI, German unemployment

• CAD: Canada GDP

• USDInd: US goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI

Here are 4 key themes that could rock EURUSD:

1. Ongoing Iran war

As the Iran war enters its 13th week, the global economy is absorbing the pressure from high energy prices and prolonged uncertainty.

While there seems to be some progress in talks, Tehran has publicly made it clear that it will not be handing over its enriched uranium stockpiles. Should tensions escalate, this could boost the dollar – enforcing downside pressure on the EURUSD.

2. US April PCE report – Thursday 28th May

It’s a big week for the United States due to a volley of economic reports including the latest PCE report.

The February US personal income and spending report including the PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will offer key insight into the direction of price pressures.

Markets are forecasting PCE deflator YoY to jump3.9% in April with the core figure rising to 3.3% from 3.2%.

Ultimately, any signs of rising price pressure may reinforce bets around higher US interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 77% probability of a 25-basis point cut by December.

The EURUSD may tumble on signs of rising price pressures in the United States.
A cooler-than-expected PCE report could boost the EURUSD.

3. Germany CPI report

A string of high impact data releases from Europe including the key CPI from Germany may provide critical insight into the economic outlook.

On Friday 29th May, the latest inflation figures from the largest country in Europe will be published with markets forecasting CPI to cool 2.8% YoY compared to 2.9% in the previous month.

Signs of rising inflationary pressures may reinforce bets around the ECB hiking as soon as June.

4. Technical forces

The EURUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

Should 1.1580 prove reliable support, this may trigger a rebound toward the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Weakness below 1.1580 could see a decline toward 1.1510 – the lower bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

(Source BBG)

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 71.1% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.1510 – 1.1730 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 May

GBP/USD Recovers Amid UK Inflation Data: Positive Signals Emerge

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3428 on Thursday, following a period of volatility after the release of UK inflation data, which came in weaker than expected despite geopolitical tensions over Iran and rising oil prices.

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March, while the market had anticipated a reading of 3%.

The market interpreted these figures as a signal that the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term. This has reduced expectations of further tightening and weighed on the pound.

Weak labour market data in the UK added to the negative sentiment. Recent statistics indicated a slowdown in hiring and a decline in new vacancies, reflecting the impact of the broader economic environment.

It is important to note that the effect of slower inflation may be temporary. Since the onset of the Iran conflict, global oil prices have increased by approximately 50%, and this rise is likely to feed into the UK economy and consumer prices over time.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3388, currently extending up to 1.3490. A move lower towards 1.3380 is likely. After this, the pair may consolidate, with potential to move to 1.3515 on the upside or decline towards 1.3200 on the downside. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3434, currently extending up to 1.3464. A move lower towards 1.3333 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.