Archive for Forex and Currency News

EUR/USD: US Inflation Will Determine Everything

EUR/USD opens the week around 1.1433. Investors continue to assess the situation in the Middle East, where uncertainty remains high. Oil prices corrected lower following a sharp rise at the start of the week, after reports that the United States and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations.

At the same time, fresh mutual strikes between the parties have heightened fears that the conflict could once again enter an escalation phase, leaving the prospects for maintaining the ceasefire uncertain.

Renewed hostilities have brought fears of a new inflation wave back to the market, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Markets currently estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 62%, up from 58% a week earlier, though this figure exceeded 70% mid-week.

Additional attention has been drawn to comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that one of the key drivers of inflationary pressure in the United States remains demand growth, linked to developments in artificial intelligence technology.

The main event of the week will be the release of the US June consumer price index (CPI). Higher-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight policy stance, potentially supporting the dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast CPI data would increase pressure on the US currency, as markets would begin to price in a softer monetary policy trajectory once again

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1388 and up to 1.1410. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1450, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next growth wave to the 1.1412 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a range expansion down to 1.1366 and up to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above 50 and pointing strictly up to 80, before a subsequent decline to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is treading water at the start of the week as markets await key US inflation data that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains elevated, with conflicting signals-renewed peace talks on one hand and fresh military strikes on the other-keeping investors cautious. Inflation expectations have been reinforced by escalating tensions, pushing September rate hike probabilities higher despite a mid-week dip. Comments from NY Fed’s Williams on AI-driven demand as an inflation factor have added another dimension to the debate. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s CPI release: a stronger print could boost the dollar, while a weaker outcome would ease pressure on the euro. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Jul

Euro Bets go Bearish, New Zealand Dollar Bets hit Record Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (31,314 contracts) with the British Pound (14,244 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,421 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,544 contracts), US Dollar Index (253 contracts) and the Bitcoin (-270 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,320 contracts) and the EuroFX (-17,326 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (-13,826 contracts), Australian Dollar (-6,951 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,909 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

COT Currencies: Euro Bets go Bearish, New Zealand Dollar Bets hit Record Low

Highlighting major Currency speculator positions this week was the Euro, which saw speculator positions fall into a bearish territory this week for the first time since a brief dip into bearish territory in April. Overall, the Euro positions have now only seen two bearish positions out of the past 70 weeks. This week, Euro speculator bets fell for a third consecutive week and for the second week where bets fell by more than -17,000 contracts and this has brought the overall net position to a -16,227 net contract level. The recent Euro weakness has been a rather swift turnaround for the Euro, which started off the year of 2026 with extremely bullish positions that were routinely above +100,000 net contracts (+180,305 net contracts on February 10th). However, in March, the Euro position started to deteriorate and fall sharply, with the net position falling by a total of -121,371 contracts over the past 17 weeks dating back to March 10th.

In the Forex markets, and despite the sharp drop-off in speculator positions, the Euro exchange rate has continued to be relatively stable with this week’s close around 1.1445. This is slightly below the sideways trading range that had prevailed for roughly a year with 1.15 support on the downside and 1.1950 resistance on the upside. The 1.15 significant level may turn into a strong resistance level for future price action.

The New Zealand Dollar this week continued to fall for a fifth consecutive week and now has dropped to an all-time record low of -65,189 net contracts. Overall, the New Zealand Dollar has now been in a bearish position for just about a year, with the last bullish position dating back to July 15th of 2025. In Forex trading markets against the US Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar rose for a second consecutive week this week. However, the currency, in the big scheme of things, has been in a downtrend since falling below its 200-weekly moving average in 2022. In the past year, the currency has been in a sideways trading range that has seen support around the 0.5600 level, while there has been strong resistance at the 0.6050 threshold. This week’s close was at the 0.5775 price level.

Next up, the US Dollar Index has continued to see speculator bets improve with a very modest rise this week of just 253 contracts. This edge higher has brought the overall net position now to a total of 13,269 net contracts which is the highest bullish position for the US Dollar Index in over a year, dating back to March of 2025. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets, much like the Euro, has broken out of its sideways trading range (to the upside though) that was capped around the 100.20 level previously. This week, the DXY closed at the 100.75 exchange rate and will look to use the previous resistance as a support level to trend higher.

The Japanese Yen speculative bets surged this week by over 30,000 contracts. This is the second gain out of the past three weeks. However, the Japanese Yen speculator position is extremely bearish as the overall net position has been more than -100,000 net contracts for seven consecutive weeks. In the Forex markets, the Japanese Yen has been extremely weak as well, and is trading around its 40-year lows against the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair closed out the week at 161.66, which registers as a historically strong US Dollar weekly close against the Japanese Yen.

The British Pound Sterling speculative bets rose this week by over 14,000 net contracts and advanced for a second consecutive week. The British Pound Sterling net standing has been very weak as well with extreme bearish positions and settled in at a -87,903 net speculator contracts this week. The improvement in speculator bets this week took the GBP position out of a -100,000 net contract position that had prevailed the previous two weeks but overall, the GBP speculator positioning has now been in negative territory for 50 consecutive weeks, dating back to the last bullish reading on July 22nd of 2025. In the Forex markets, the British Pound Sterling has risen for two consecutive weeks and remains in a sideways trading band that has a support level of 1.3150 and a resistance level on the top side at 1.3750. This week, the GBP against the US Dollar closed at 1.3399.

The New Zealand Dollar leads Currency Market price performances

The major Currency Markets’ price performances were led this week by the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 1.33%. Next up, the Brazilian Real was also higher than 1% with a 1.14% increase. Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.71%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.42% on the week.

The Australian Dollar saw an uptick by 0.35%, followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw a similar edge higher by 0.34%. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, but a bit higher at 0.09%, while the Japanese Yen saw virtually no change on the week.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso edged lower by -0.06% and was followed by the Euro, which dipped ever so slightly by -0.14%.

The biggest decliner on the week was the Swiss Franc with a modest decline of -0.57%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (96 percent) and the US Dollar Index (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (62 percent) and the Mexican Peso (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the British Pound (7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and the Japanese Yen (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.3 percent)
EuroFX (23.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (30.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (62.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (72.4 percent)
Bitcoin (95.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

US Dollar Index & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (34 percent) and Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (14 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-44 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-30 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (33.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.4 percent)
EuroFX (-17.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-12.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-44.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-51.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-32.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (13.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.2 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (26.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,016 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	59.4	2.7
– Net Position:	13,269	-16,238	2,969
– Gross Longs:	31,921	15,452	4,401
– Gross Shorts:	18,652	31,690	1,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	12.4	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-37.7	25.3

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -17,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,099 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	58.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.2	7.2
– Net Position:	-16,227	-10,024	26,251
– Gross Longs:	223,430	460,669	83,533
– Gross Shorts:	239,657	470,693	57,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.6	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	19.1	-20.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 14,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,147 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	73.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	39.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-87,903	98,366	-10,463
– Gross Longs:	44,564	208,613	23,832
– Gross Shorts:	132,467	110,247	34,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	91.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	12.5	-21.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -123,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 31,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -155,092 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	56.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	25.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-123,778	122,823	955
– Gross Longs:	112,247	224,327	43,443
– Gross Shorts:	236,025	101,504	42,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	81.9	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.8	-16.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,958 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	81.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	32.9	22.4
– Net Position:	-37,414	52,179	-14,765
– Gross Longs:	10,561	87,557	9,362
– Gross Shorts:	47,975	35,378	24,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	84.5	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	11.4	-20.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -173,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -22,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,806 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	80.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	30.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-173,126	181,996	-8,870
– Gross Longs:	31,566	292,643	31,245
– Gross Shorts:	204,692	110,647	40,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	91.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	44.4	-17.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,700 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	45.5	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	40.2	9.8
– Net Position:	-24,651	10,796	13,855
– Gross Longs:	71,962	93,234	34,015
– Gross Shorts:	96,613	82,438	20,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	53.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.9	39.8	-13.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,280 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	87.3	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.0	26.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-65,189	68,783	-3,594
– Gross Longs:	10,919	99,092	2,704
– Gross Shorts:	76,108	30,309	6,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	32.1	-10.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 77,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 6,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,936 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.2	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	80.1	1.4
– Net Position:	77,357	-81,273	3,916
– Gross Longs:	112,628	78,016	6,612
– Gross Shorts:	35,271	159,289	2,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	43.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-12.2	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -13,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,674 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.5	22.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	56.8	1.6
– Net Position:	30,848	-33,921	3,073
– Gross Longs:	71,636	22,206	4,668
– Gross Shorts:	40,788	56,127	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	37.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.7	29.2	-0.5

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,770 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.3	0.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.8	17.3	5.9
– Net Position:	3,500	-3,217	-283
– Gross Longs:	16,073	38	821
– Gross Shorts:	12,573	3,255	1,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.7	6.0	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-15.1	-20.2

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10 Jul

USD/JPY Falls as Yen Recovers Weekly Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.

Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.

Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.

At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.

Conclusion

The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.

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08 Jul

Pound Awaits Tighter Policy from Bank of England

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD declined to 1.3352 on Wednesday amid a general deterioration in the external environment and a decline in risk appetite. The escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain have prompted investors to move away from riskier assets.

Earlier, the pound had appeared more resilient, supported by oil prices rising above 72 USD per barrel and the associated inflationary risks. Market participants are currently pricing in approximately a 76% probability of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end, with the likelihood of tightening as early as November exceeding 50%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently confirmed that inflation remains on a path towards the 2% target but acknowledged that this process will take longer than previously expected. At the same time, the regulator does not see scope for reducing interest rates in the near future.

Political uncertainty in the UK has had a limited impact on the market so far. The favourite for the post of Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has yet to announce his candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer. However, investors believe that much of the domestic political risk has already been priced into the pound’s exchange rate.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is moving lower towards 1.3240. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from this range would open the way for a move towards 1.3480, while a downside breakout would suggest a decline towards 1.3290, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3090. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3360 level, currently extending down to 1.3340. A move higher towards 1.3360 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3320. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Sterling has retreated as deteriorating geopolitical conditions in the Middle East – including attacks on Gulf states and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz – have dampened risk appetite. The pound had previously found support from rising oil prices and market expectations of further Bank of England tightening, with a 76% probability of a rate hike priced in by year-end. Governor Bailey’s confirmation that inflation remains above target and that rate cuts are not imminent has reinforced the hawkish outlook. While domestic political uncertainty appears largely priced in, the pound’s near-term trajectory will depend on how geopolitical risks evolve. Technically, further downside towards 1.3240 and potentially 1.3090 appears likely in the medium term.

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07 Jul

RoboForex Brings Full-Scale Trading to Telegram

Belize City, Belize, July 6, 2026 – Financial broker RoboForex now offers direct trading within Telegram, providing users with a full-scale mobile trading experience without leaving their preferred messenger. This integration allows users to manage their accounts, execute trades, and access professional analytical tools from anywhere and on any device through a single interface.

Modern traders no longer need to overload their smartphones with multiple apps for different tasks. RoboForex has integrated its MobileTrader platform into Telegram as a Mini App, transforming one of the world’s most popular messaging platforms into a powerful, unified trading environment. This new capability is ideal for those who value mobility and want reliable market access without being tied to a specific device or complex software.

A Seamless Environment Built Around User Experience

The MobileTrader Telegram Mini App is designed to reflect the real-world workflow of modern traders. As expert signals and market news are often delivered through Telegram channels, users can now stay at the centre of market activity without switching between applications. The in-messenger trading app can be minimised within Telegram, allowing users to follow news, signals, and analytics in their communities and instantly return to the trading interface to open a position as soon as an opportunity arises.

While we live in a mobile-first era, comprehensive market research and technical analysis often require precision and a desktop setup. RoboForex ensures a truly unified workspace where all operations are synchronised in real time. A trader can open a position via the Telegram interface while on the go and seamlessly transition to the web version of MobileTrader for more detailed analysis once at their desk. This continuity ensures that market access is always available, regardless of the device being used.

“Telegram is seeing strong growth in popularity among the global trading community, yet for a long time, it was perceived only as a communication tool. We decided to change that by providing traders with a user-friendly app that simplifies market entry and makes the trading process as natural as sending a message,” said Douglas Abreu, Regional Operations Manager at RoboForex.

Mini App, Full-Scale Functionality

Now available as a Telegram Mini App, RoboForex MobileTrader offers full trading functionality in a compact format. The streamlined format retains full functionality and provides everything a trader needs:

Full сontrol: account management, order execution, position monitoring, and live charts
Financial management: instant deposits and withdrawals, with zero-commission withdrawals available three Tuesdays per month
Analytical hub: economic calendar, personalised alerts, and market analytics
Copy Trading: access to one of the industry’s largest copy-trading communities, with thousands of strategies to follow

How to Get Started

Instant access is available through the official Telegram bot: @RoboForexMobileTraderBot.

The Telegram Mini App is an integral part of the unified RoboForex MobileTrader platform. Whether using Telegram, iOS and Android apps, or the web platform, traders access the same accounts and positions across all environments. This enables seamless switching between platforms depending on context and convenience, providing full flexibility to access global financial markets.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that provides brokerage services, giving traders access to financial markets through its proprietary trading terminals and industry-leading trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage license number FSC 9759600. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

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07 Jul

Your Bourse Integrates TradingView Charts and Trading Platform Library with Trade Server

Brokers can now build full trading platforms on Your Bourse Trade Server using TradingView charts or the TradingView Trading Platform library, with multi-asset support and flat monthly pricing.

Your Bourse, a trading technology provider, has integrated TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library with Your Bourse Trade Server. Brokers can now incorporate TradingView technology into their platforms, either through their own proprietary infrastructure or as part of a Trade Server-powered backend. Trade Server is built as a frontend-agnostic, API-first backend with no proprietary front end of its own, giving brokers full infrastructure control with predictable, flat monthly pricing.

Integration Capabilities

TradingView Charting Integration: Brokers can offer TradingView’s signature charting features combined with order management and account interface, powered by Trade Server.

TradingView Advanced Charts: Brokers who prefer to use their own trading interface can embed TradingView’s Advanced Charts into their own proprietary front ends.

TradingView Trading Platform Library: A Trading Platform library from TradingView provides the core components needed to build trading platforms. It is based on Advanced Charts and contains all its features, including charting, technical analysis tools, order management, and real-time updates, enabling companies to create efficient and user-friendly trading applications. Powered by Trade Server, brokers can use it to build complete, multi-asset trading applications on their own infrastructure.

Multi-Asset Trading from One Account: Trade Server supports FX, CFDs, crypto spot, crypto perpetuals, exchange-traded instruments, futures, and more from a single trading account.

Portfolio-Based Margin: Margin and liquidation are calculated across all positions, with cross-asset collateral and unified liquidation logic.

High-Performance Infrastructure: Trade Server delivers ~21μs execution latency, 500K+ orders per second, 10M+ open positions capacity, and 99.999% uptime SLA.

Flat Monthly Pricing: Subscription pricing is based on account capacity, not trading volume, giving brokers cost predictability regardless of how much their clients trade.

What This Means for Brokers

The integration of TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library with Trade Server lets brokers offer a modern, full-featured trading platform while keeping full backend infrastructure control. TradingView provides the charting and platform components traders expect. Your Bourse Trade Server provides the backend that supports true multi-asset trading from one account with flat pricing and the development agility of an API-first architecture.

Streamlined Implementation

Your Bourse acts as a TradingView charts and Trading Platform library redistributor and integration owner, providing:

Defined onboarding flow
Pre-built integration layers
Technical support throughout implementation
Ongoing maintenance and updates

Trade Server’s API-first architecture simplifies integration of both TradingView charts and the Trading Platform library, and supports faster onboarding than legacy backend alternatives.

Executive Perspective

“TradingView has established itself as the industry standard for modern retail trading interfaces, and our partnership now covers both TradingView charts and the TradingView Trading Platform library. With Your Bourse Trade Server’s true multi-asset capabilities, brokers can build complete trading platforms and diversify their offerings across asset classes from a single account. By combining TradingView technology with Trade Server, we give brokers a modern trading environment with full control over their backend infrastructure.”
Kate Rutkovskaya, Chief Revenue Officer, Your Bourse

“Integrations like this give brokers more control over their infrastructure without changing the TradingView charting experience. Your Bourse provides the ideal foundation through its Trade Server solution.”
Vitaliy Kirpichev, Business Growth Lead, International Team, TradingView

About TradingView

TradingView is the world’s most popular charting platform and the industry’s forefront for financial visualization solutions. 100M+ traders worldwide use their platform as the go-to destination to chart, chat, and trade financial markets. Their product portfolio includes best-in-class charts, versatile commercial libraries, and many more tools for retail and business audiences.

About Your Bourse

Your Bourse provides trading technology solutions for retail and institutional brokers, prop firms, banks, and trading desks. The company’s products include Trade Server, an API-first multi-asset trading backend, and a liquidity bridge for aggregation and execution management. Your Bourse delivers multi-asset trading support and 99.999% uptime reliability, serving 115+ clients globally with a team of 45+ technical specialists.

For more information, visit https://www.yourbourse.com

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07 Jul

Yen Still Under Pressure: Markets Await Action from Authorities

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is holding near 161.84 on Tuesday, with the yen close to 40-year lows. Pressure on the Japanese currency remains as market participants continue to bet against it, with no visible currency interventions from Japanese authorities having materialised.

At the same time, investors are closely monitoring potential action from Tokyo. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to enter the foreign exchange market if necessary. She also noted that Tokyo and Washington maintain close consultations on currency policy matters. However, the market remains sceptical that interventions alone – without a shift in monetary policy – can provide lasting support for the yen.

Additional pressure on the Japanese currency comes from expectations of further expansion in budget spending and the Bank of Japan’s slow pace of policy normalisation.

Published economic data were mixed. Nominal wages rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, but household spending fell 0.4%, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 161.92 and, following a downside breakout, is moving lower towards 161.44. This level is expected to be reached today, followed by a rebound towards 162.55. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure, trading near 40-year lows as markets continue to bet against the currency in the absence of actual intervention from Japanese authorities. While Finance Minister Katayama has reiterated readiness to act and confirmed close coordination with Washington, market participants remain doubtful that intervention alone can reverse the yen’s trajectory without accompanying monetary policy shifts. Mixed domestic data – rising nominal wages but falling household spending – highlight ongoing weakness in demand. Technically, USD/JPY may see a modest pullback towards 161.44 in the near term. However, the broader outlook for the yen remains negative, with further expansion in fiscal spending and the Bank of Japan’s gradual approach likely to keep the currency under pressure.

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06 Jul

EUR/USD in a Narrow Range: Focus on Fed Minutes

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1432 on Monday. At the end of last week, the main currency pair posted modest gains. Weaker-than-expected US labour market data and lower oil prices have weighed on the US dollar, prompting investors to reconsider expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report released last week showed that the US economy added only 57,000 new jobs in June, falling well short of the 110,000 forecast – the weakest result in four months. This outcome has reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike as early as September.

An additional factor weighing on the dollar was the decline in oil prices. The restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, along with expectations of increased OPEC+ production, has raised concerns about a potential global oversupply. This dynamic is helping to reduce inflation risks and the need for further rate increases.

The market’s focus this week is on the release of the June Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Investors are hoping for additional signals on the future trajectory of US monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1422, currently extending between 1.1422 and 1.1470. An upside breakout from this range would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1480, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A downside breakout would open the way for a direct move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1470 and is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A range expansion down to 1.1408 and up to 1.1480 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line at 50 and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in a narrow range as markets await fresh catalysts, with focus turning to the release of the Fed minutes later this week. Last week’s weaker-than-expected US jobs data and falling oil prices have eased pressure on the euro, reducing the likelihood of a September rate hike. The restoration of Hormuz shipments and potential OPEC+ supply increases have further dampened inflation concerns. However, the broader technical picture remains bearish, with indicators pointing towards a potential decline to 1.1260 in the medium term. The Fed minutes will be closely scrutinised for any shifts in the policy outlook that could determine the pair’s next directional move.

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02 Jul

GBP Strength Holds Despite Dovish Bank of England Signals

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD shrugged off the impact of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at the ECB forum in Sintra and rose to 1.3287 on Thursday.

Earlier, Bailey confirmed that he had opposed the interest rate increase at the last meeting, citing signs of a slowdown in the British economy.

He also noted that the regulator should exercise greater caution in projecting the future rate path, as overly rigid guidance could limit the flexibility of monetary policy.

Bailey’s comments reinforced expectations of a more cautious approach to future rate decisions, which briefly weighed on the pound. However, the market absorbed the impact quickly.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is moving towards 1.3300 (a test from below). A broad consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from the range would open the way for a move towards 1.3350. A downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3200, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.2980. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3255, currently extending down to 1.3220. A move higher towards 1.3300 is expected, followed by a decline towards 1.3200. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

Sterling has shown resilience, pushing higher despite Bank of England Governor Bailey’s dovish remarks at the ECB forum. His confirmation that he opposed the last rate hike and his call for more cautious forward guidance initially weighed on the pound. However, the market quickly absorbed these comments, with GBP/USD recovering to trade around 1.3287. The central bank’s cautious tone may limit the pound’s longer-term upside potential, but for now, technical indicators point to further gains towards 1.3300 and potentially 1.3350. The broader direction will depend on upcoming UK economic data and any shifts in Bank of England policy.

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01 Jul

USD/JPY at 40-Year High: Multiple Factors Weigh on the Yen

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY soared to 162.78 in the middle of the week, reaching its highest level in nearly 40 years.

This sharp move has intensified expectations of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency.

Particular attention is focused on Friday, when US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day. Low liquidity during such periods traditionally increases the effectiveness of potential interventions, and it was during similar windows that the Bank of Japan previously acted.

Additional pressure on the yen comes from robust US macroeconomic data, which supports expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. At the same time, investors remain doubtful that the Bank of Japan is prepared to accelerate monetary tightening, as the regulator favours a gradual normalisation approach.

The continued appeal of carry trade operations and strong demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset are also weighing on the Japanese currency.

An additional risk factor is Japan’s reliance on oil imports from the Middle East, leaving the economy sensitive to potential disruptions in energy supplies from the region.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 162.55 level and, following an upside breakout, is developing an upward move towards 163.15. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a decline towards 161.40. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming an upward structure towards 163.15. A correction towards 162.60 may follow, before a further rise to 163.30, with scope for the trend to extend to 163.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside potential remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has surged to a 40-year high as multiple factors align against the yen. Strong US data continues to support expectations of further Fed rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan remains cautious in its approach to policy normalisation, widening the interest rate differential. The persistent appeal of carry trades and safe-haven demand for the dollar add further pressure, while Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports heightens vulnerability to supply disruptions. Markets are now on high alert for potential intervention, particularly with US markets closed on Friday – a period of low liquidity that has historically increased the likelihood of such actions. Technically, further upside towards 163.15–163.50 appears likely in the near term, although intervention risks remain elevated at these levels.

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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.