Archive for Forex and Currency News

GBP/USD Under Local Pressure: Focus on Bank of England Signals

GBP/USD fell to 1.3627 on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the outcome of today’s Bank of England meeting.

UK interest rates are expected to decline throughout the year. However, the regulator is unlikely to provide clear signals about the timing and scale of easing, as it needs to wait for a clearer picture of inflation.

Additional pressure on the US dollar stems from the delay in the publication of key US labour market data due to the partial government shutdown. This increases uncertainty about the Fed’s future policy.

By the end of the year, global markets are pricing in around 35 basis points of Bank of England easing – one 25 bp cut and a second cut priced with a probability of around 40%.

Political risks remain in the UK. Investor attention is focused on the by-elections in Gorton and Denton County on 26 February, alongside the May local elections. Pollsters show a rise in support for the Reform UK party. It is ahead of both Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, despite the general election not being scheduled until 2029.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, after a sharp rally in the second half of January and a fresh high in the 1.3850–1.3880 zone, GBP/USD entered a correction phase. The price has turned down from the upper end of the Bollinger Bands and is now testing the 1.3620–1.3650 support area. Upward momentum has weakened, leaving the structure short-term neutral-to-bearish. At the same time, the broader upward context has not yet been breached.

On the lower H1 chart, a descending corrective channel has formed. The price is consistently posting lower lows and remains near the lower Bollinger Bands. Selling pressure persists, with the nearest support at 1.3520–1.3550. To stabilise, the market would need a return above the 1.3660–1.3700 zone.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD is experiencing a tactical pullback driven by pre-BoE caution and delayed US data, which is creating a temporary dollar squeeze. The technical correction appears orderly and is testing key support within a larger bullish structure. The near-term trajectory hinges almost entirely on the Bank of England’s tone today: any dovish hints could extend the correction towards 1.3520, while a neutral or hawkish hold could trigger a recovery attempt. Political uncertainty in the UK adds a layer of medium-term risk, but for now, the primary focus remains on monetary policy signals and the defence of the 1.3620 support zone.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Feb

USDJPY Realises Correction: BOJ Policy Weighs on Yen

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USDJPY rose to 154.98 on Monday, with the yen continuing to fall. Pressure on the currency increased after statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Over the weekend, the politician noted that a weak yen could be a significant advantage for export industries, indicating that Takaichi continues to favour a softer exchange rate. She later clarified that her comments concerned the need to build an economy resistant to currency fluctuations.

On Friday, the yen lost about 1% against the dollar after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman. The market regarded this choice as more “hawkish”, supporting the dollar and adding to the pressure on the yen.

An additional factor of uncertainty remains the upcoming extraordinary vote in the lower house of parliament on 8 February. Takaichi’s ruling party is expected to strengthen its position and advance expansive fiscal policies, increasing the risk of higher borrowing. Against this background, both Japanese government bonds and the yen were under pressure last month.

Expectations of fiscal stimulus and discussion of tax breaks increase the burden on public finances and restrain demand for the national currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, a corrective rebound follows after a sharp drop from the 158.50–159.00 area. The price recovered from a low in the 152.00 zone and is testing the 155.50 area, but remains below medium-term resistance. The structure still looks corrective inside the broader downward phase until the quotes settle above 156.50–157.00.

The H1 chart shows that after a sharp decline, the pair entered a recovery phase and has been sequentially updating local maxima. The price climbed above the 153.26–153.88 zone and is trading along the upper end of the Bollinger Bands, indicating continued near-term momentum. A slowdown is observed near the 155.50–155.60 level, with a possible pause or pullback within the ongoing correction.

Conclusion

In summary, the USDJPY rebound is primarily a technical correction within a broader bearish context for the yen. The move is exacerbated by political commentary favouring a weaker currency and reinforced by a hawkish Fed appointment. While near-term momentum persists, the pair faces significant resistance ahead. The fundamental backdrop of anticipated expansive fiscal policy in Japan continues to apply structural pressure on the yen, suggesting the current recovery may be limited in scope before the larger downtrend potentially resumes.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Feb

Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (25,739 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (21,157 contracts), the EuroFX (20,439 contracts), the Japanese Yen (10,896 contracts), the British Pound (5,818 contracts), the US Dollar Index (2,013 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,865 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,204 contracts), Bitcoin (392 contracts), and with the Swiss Franc (314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Mexican Peso with a decrease of -4,039 contracts.

NZD leads Price Performance Returns for FX this week

In the currency markets this week, the New Zealand Dollar saw the biggest rise on the week with a 1.25% gain in the past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 1.12%, followed by the Australian Dollar which rose by 1.01%. The Japanese Yen came in next with a 0.67% rise, followed by the Canadian Dollar which increased by 0.60% on the week, while the Brazilian Real was up by 0.59%. The British Pound also saw a small gain this week with a 0.34% rise, and the Euro rounds out the gainers with a 0.27% increase.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.22%, followed by the Mexican Peso which fell by -0.59%. Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the week with a -6.27% drop.

FX COT Data Roundup: Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

Highlighting this week’s currency speculated data was strong rises in speculative bets for the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar and the Euro.

– The Canadian Dollar speculative bets surged the most this week by over 25,000 contracts. This is the second straight week of increases, as well as the seventh time out of the last nine weeks that bets have improved. Overall, the CAD speculator data have been highly negative, with bets being in bearish territory for the past 130 consecutive weeks, dating back to August 1st of 2023. But there has been a sharp turnaround since the end of 2025 as the bearish bets have fallen from a -130,600 on December 9th to this week’s speculative standing at just -16,046 contracts. This is the least bearish position for the Canadian Dollar speculators since February of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the CAD trades right around the exchange rate of 0.7373 to close out this week. This roughly coincides with the 200-weekly moving average and a close above the 200-weekly moving average would be the first time the Canadian Dollar has been above this measure since August of 2022.

– The Australian Dollar speculative bets jumped by over 21,000 contracts this week and rose for the ninth consecutive week. In these past nine weeks, the speculator bets have increased by a total of 91,322 net contracts. The positive trend in speculator bets has now pushed the Australian Dollar net standing into a bullish position at 7,146 net contracts which marks the first bullish level for the Australian Dollar in the past 59 weeks, dating back to December 10th of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the Australian Dollar has had two strong consecutive weekly gains, and this week the AUD touched its highest level (vs the USD) since January of 2023. Overall, the Australian Dollar exchange rate versus the USD has now been above its 200-weekly moving average for the past six weeks, which is the first time it has been multiple weeks over the 200-moving average since 2022.

– The Euro currency speculator position saw a rebound by over 20,000 net contracts this week after falling sharply in the previous two weeks. This week’s gain brings the overall net position level back to 132,134 net contracts, which is right around the average of the past 10 weeks. Overall, this is a strong, bullish position for speculators looking for the euro currency to continue to rise higher. Euro bets have now been in a consecutive net bullish position for 47 straight weeks, dating back to March 11th of 2025. And to illustrate the strength of the speculator sentiment, the Euro position has now been over the +100,000 net contract level for 29 out of the last 33 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the Euro briefly touched its highest level since June of 2021 at over the 1.2100 exchange rate. However, the Euro faltered to end the week with a few down days in a row and closed out trading at the 1.1893 exchange rate versus the US Dollar. Since the beginning of 2025, the Euro was now higher by approximately 16.5% and is up by just about 1% this month, ending January 31st.

– The US Dollar Index speculative bets rose this week after a decline last week, and have actually been higher in eight out of the last nine weeks. Overall, the US Dollar Index speculative positions have now been in a negative net standing for 33 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. In the exchange rate markets, the Dollar fell by a modest amount this week. And despite touching its lowest level since 2022 around the 95.36 exchange rate, the Dollar Index rallied at the end of the week to close out around the 96.86 price level. Likely helping the US Dollar strength on Friday was a steep sell-off in the precious metals markets to close out the week while also affecting the USD (and going forward) was the announcement of a nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Warsh.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (89 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (79 percent) and Bitcoin (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (32 percent) and the British Pound (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (32.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.8 percent)
EuroFX (79.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (30.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (88.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (66.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (82.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.8 percent)
Bitcoin (67.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (14 percent), Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-9 percent), Swiss Franc (-8 percent) and the EuroFX (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (20.1 percent)
EuroFX (-4.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (22.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-8.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	28.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.4	12.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-4,405	5,087	-682
– Gross Longs:	17,945	9,163	2,838
– Gross Shorts:	22,350	4,076	3,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	70.4	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.3	-1.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 132,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	74.1	4.9
– Net Position:	132,134	-181,604	49,470
– Gross Longs:	290,336	499,732	94,116
– Gross Shorts:	158,202	681,336	44,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	19.3	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.9	-3.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	43.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.9	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,162	5,464	10,698
– Gross Longs:	87,786	97,216	36,620
– Gross Shorts:	103,948	91,752	25,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	62.3	81.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-17.5	32.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.0	32.7	11.8
– Net Position:	-33,933	26,709	7,224
– Gross Longs:	104,460	125,157	42,786
– Gross Shorts:	138,393	98,448	35,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	57.7	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	-1.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	70.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.7	26.4	18.8
– Net Position:	-42,893	42,406	487
– Gross Longs:	9,724	67,805	18,510
– Gross Shorts:	52,617	25,399	18,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	68.6	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	3.3	8.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	46.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,046	13,734	2,312
– Gross Longs:	77,169	118,539	28,551
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	104,805	26,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	16.3	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-34.6	22.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	39.7	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	50.9	7.7
– Net Position:	7,146	-28,309	21,163
– Gross Longs:	109,806	100,026	40,630
– Gross Shorts:	102,660	128,335	19,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.1	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-17.8	1.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	80.8	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.9	23.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-47,745	48,868	-1,123
– Gross Longs:	12,074	69,085	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	59,819	20,217	4,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	89.1	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.4	1.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.7	33.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	78.7	1.3
– Net Position:	103,114	-107,349	4,235
– Gross Longs:	149,094	79,827	7,389
– Gross Shorts:	45,980	187,176	3,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	20.1	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-8.5	-2.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	41.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	60.7	0.9
– Net Position:	18,845	-22,726	3,881
– Gross Longs:	56,027	50,435	4,917
– Gross Shorts:	37,182	73,161	1,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.0	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.1	5.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	3.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.5	6.0	5.4
– Net Position:	690	-585	-105
– Gross Longs:	18,054	875	1,206
– Gross Shorts:	17,364	1,460	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	43.6	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.4	1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jan

EUR/USD Moves Away from High but Remains Strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD fell to 1.1919 on Friday. Despite this movement, the week ends with the US dollar experiencing its second consecutive decline. Pressure on the USD is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about economic policy in Washington, which is reducing investor confidence in the dollar.

The focus is on recent statements by US President Donald Trump. He threatened tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba and also warned Iran of possible military strikes if it refused to sign a nuclear agreement. An additional source of uncertainty was Trump’s promise to announce the candidacy of a new Fed chair on Friday morning, following sustained pressure on Jerome Powell to cut rates more aggressively.

In parallel, the White House and Senate Democrats reached a preliminary agreement that avoids a government shutdown. This partially reduced short-term fiscal risks.

Earlier in the week, the dollar fell to levels not seen in almost four years after Trump expressed no concern about its weakening. Later, the US currency was supported by statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who remains committed to a strong dollar policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a wave of growth towards 1.2080. A repeated breakdown of this resistance level may signal a continuation of the uptrend. At this stage, the pair is continuing the correction wave towards the support level of 1.1875. Technically, the correction scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its histogram and signal line both above zero, forming a downward wave. Upon completion of the correction, we anticipate the uptrend continuing towards 1.2045 and subsequently to 1.2200, with possible corrections along the way.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction after testing the resistance level. A rebound from the support level of 1.1860 would signal the formation of a new growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator’s signal lines are pointing towards level 80, suggesting the uptrend may continue. Subsequently, the target for growth may be 1.2045.

Conclusion

In summary, while the EUR/USD pair has experienced a corrective pullback, the fundamental backdrop of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the US dollar, underpinning the euro’s relative strength. Technically, the correction appears poised to complete near key support levels, with indicators on both the H4 and H1 timeframes suggesting a high probability of resuming the prevailing upward trend. The overall bias remains bullish for a potential test of higher resistance zones.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jan

EUR/USD Updates Four-Year High: Everything Works Against the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD reached 1.2000 on Wednesday after rising to 1.2082 the previous evening, marking a strong four-day rally. The pressure on the US dollar has intensified following comments from US President Donald Trump. He stated that he was not concerned about the weakening of the dollar, viewing its fall as moderate. The market interpreted this as a signal that the administration might be willing to tolerate a weaker dollar to enhance export competitiveness.

An additional blow to the dollar came from rising political uncertainty in Washington, with Trump making fresh statements about Greenland and continuing to criticise the US Federal Reserve’s independence.

Further compounding the dollar’s decline is growing speculation about a potential joint US-Japan currency intervention to support the yen, which has boosted demand for JPY.

Investors’ focus is on the Federal Reserve’s decision, due later tonight. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate, but much attention is on potential signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Current expectations suggest two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards 1.2080. A breakout above this resistance level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. For now, the pair is in a corrective phase, with support around 1.1935. The correction is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows the histogram and signal line above zero and forming a downward wave. After the correction, the upward trend may resume towards 1.2100 and potentially 1.2200, though corrections could occur during the rise.

On the H1 chart, after testing resistance, EUR/USD is forming a correction. A rebound from support at 1.1935 would signal a continuation of the bullish wave. The Stochastic indicator’s signal lines are approaching the 20 level, suggesting that the correction may continue before resuming the upward trend. The next target for growth could be 1.2100.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair continues to show bullish momentum, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. The ongoing correction might offer buying opportunities, with further growth likely towards 1.2100 and 1.2200, depending on the Fed’s upcoming decision and global market dynamics.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

USD/JPY on Pause: Yen Slows After Sharp Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY settled at 154.29 on Tuesday, with the yen pausing its rally after a notable surge of nearly 3.2% in the previous two sessions. This move was driven by growing concerns about a possible coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the US.

The market was boosted by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had requested USD/JPY levels from dealers on Friday. At the same time, Japanese officials confirmed that they were in close communication with the US on currency policy and potential market actions.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) data suggested that the sharp yen appreciation on Friday was unlikely to be due to direct intervention. This speculation intensified the market’s reaction and speculative positioning.

The yen continued to receive support from the broader weakness of the US dollar, driven by rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, as well as expectations that US President Donald Trump might replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a softer candidate, further pressuring the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a correction wave following the previous decline. A continuation of the growth wave to the 155.00 level is possible today. After this rise, a rebound from the resistance level is expected, with the first target for a further decline at 153.00, followed by 152.00. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as the histogram is below zero and rising, with the signal line likely to cross the histogram and turn upwards soon.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the 153.80 mark and forming a growth wave. If the price tests the 155.00 level and rebounds, further declines could be expected, with the first support at 153.00 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this, as its signal lines continue to decline towards the 50.0 level. A break of this level would signal a continuation of the downward trend.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has paused its rapid ascent amid speculation of potential currency intervention. Despite a weaker US dollar and geopolitical risks, the yen’s recent strength is being tested. Technically, while the immediate outlook points to a possible short-term rise to 155.00, a rebound and subsequent decline towards 153.00 could be on the horizon, depending on how market sentiment evolves.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Jan

Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to 58-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the Currency Market Speculator Positions this week were the AUD, MXN, Euro & Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.

Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.

The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.

The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week. Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance led by NZD & AUD

The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.

The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.