Archive for Soft Commodities

26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: SoyOil lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows each market's current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows each market’s current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Cocoa


The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (22,135 contracts) with Corn (14,851 contracts), Cotton (12,817 contracts), Soybeans (9,424 contracts), Cocoa (3,171 contracts) and Live Cattle (-3,115 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-20,872 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,760 contracts), Lean Hogs (-13,831 contracts), Wheat (-7,171 contracts) and with Coffee (-3,530 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar, Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodities price performance

The market’s leading price performance this week was by Sugar which rose by 5.70% over the past five days. This was followed by Soybean Oil, which rose by a strong 4.21%. Cocoa comes in next with a 4.15% gain on the week and Coffee ended up higher by 3.99%. Next up, Corn was up by roughly 3% with a 2.94% gain, followed by Wheat, which rose by 1.36%. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs each advanced by 0.84%, respectively, while Cotton edged up by just 0.04% to round out the gainers on the week.

On the downside, Soybeans dipped by -0.44% and was followed by Soybean Meal, which had the biggest negative return on the week with a -1.82% retreat.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (90 percent), Cotton (88 percent) and Wheat (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (43 percent) and the Coffee (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (70.1 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (22.4 percent)
Coffee (42.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (90.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (91.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (93.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (79.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.2 percent)
Cotton (88.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.6 percent)
Cocoa (2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (82.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (88.5 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (21 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-4 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Corn (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (10.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (4.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.2 percent)
Live Cattle (20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.5 percent)
Cotton (61.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.3 percent)
Cocoa (1.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.3 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 263,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,881 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.240.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.852.310.8
– Net Position:263,732-208,245-55,487
– Gross Longs:480,510749,591142,181
– Gross Shorts:216,778957,836197,668
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.125.641.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.80.1-8.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -155,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -20,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,969 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.754.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.739.28.8
– Net Position:-155,841152,8432,998
– Gross Longs:193,071535,84589,527
– Gross Shorts:348,912383,00286,529
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.481.135.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-9.01.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,817 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.338.04.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.449.44.6
– Net Position:19,287-18,586-701
– Gross Longs:50,92761,9356,764
– Gross Shorts:31,64080,5217,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.560.23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-3.2-16.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 211,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 9,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,722 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.645.05.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.563.38.3
– Net Position:211,146-182,906-28,240
– Gross Longs:286,201450,78654,457
– Gross Shorts:75,055633,69282,697
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.510.723.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.22.920.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 169,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 22,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,946 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.042.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.466.83.7
– Net Position:169,081-181,38012,299
– Gross Longs:224,348317,53740,242
– Gross Shorts:55,267498,91727,943
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.079.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.5-25.9-4.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 136,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -15,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,215 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.244.57.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.170.24.2
– Net Position:136,455-159,01922,564
– Gross Longs:186,789275,40248,845
– Gross Shorts:50,334434,42126,281
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.46.070.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-16.712.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,588 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.228.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.953.912.9
– Net Position:102,473-86,112-16,361
– Gross Longs:156,52096,44627,472
– Gross Shorts:54,047182,55843,833
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.017.440.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-21.9-10.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -13,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,052 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.837.06.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.043.48.3
– Net Position:24,221-19,752-4,469
– Gross Longs:98,890115,31921,270
– Gross Shorts:74,669135,07125,739
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.358.751.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.835.032.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 12,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,750 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.332.96.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.361.82.5
– Net Position:82,567-95,14312,576
– Gross Longs:136,259108,50920,884
– Gross Shorts:53,692203,6528,308
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.29.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:61.7-62.663.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,594 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.252.15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.242.94.9
– Net Position:-19,42317,8201,603
– Gross Longs:43,185101,34711,115
– Gross Shorts:62,60883,5279,512
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.996.242.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.3-1.1-1.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,366 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.834.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.428.97.0
– Net Position:-25,53723,9851,552
– Gross Longs:121,024154,80332,992
– Gross Shorts:146,561130,81831,440
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.115.765.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-5.211.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
12 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (13,685 contracts) with Cotton (12,970 contracts), Live Cattle (11,756 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,750 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-43,938 contracts), Soybeans (-19,387 contracts), Wheat (-9,292 contracts), Sugar (-5,636 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,330 contracts), Coffee (-3,349 contracts) and Cocoa (-471 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads Soft Commodities price performance.

The price performance of Soft Commodities this week was led by Soybean Meal, which rose by roughly 5%, with a gain of 4.87% over the past five days. Cotton comes in next with a 3.30% gain, while Live Cattle rose by 2.85% on the week. Soybeans rounded out the leaders with a 1.38% rise.

On the downside, Cocoa was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.09% decline, followed by Lean Hogs which fell by -0.72%. Next up, Corn was lower by -1.89% and was followed by Wheat which declined by -2.44%. Soybean Oil dipped by a similar -2.51%.

The biggest losers on the week were Coffee, which fell by -4.67%, and Sugar, which dropped by -8.27% over the past five days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil, Soybeans & Soybean Meal

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent), Soybean Meal (90 percent) and Soybeans (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (88 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (75.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (81.8 percent)
Sugar (34.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (45.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (89.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (90.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.9 percent)
Live Cattle (80.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (59.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.2 percent)
Cotton (75.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.4 percent)
Wheat (88.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (96.5 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (54 percent) and Corn (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (35 percent), Sugar (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (29 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-8 percent) and Wheat (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (38.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.6 percent)
Sugar (32.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (8.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.2 percent)
Soybeans (-0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (35.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (53.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (62.0 percent)
Cocoa (-8.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 290,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -43,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,757 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.340.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.353.310.8
– Net Position:290,819-232,969-57,850
– Gross Longs:459,961735,945138,149
– Gross Shorts:169,142968,914195,999
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.821.939.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-37.2-42.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -70,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,117 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.952.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.645.59.1
– Net Position:-70,75367,2543,499
– Gross Longs:193,215487,72487,929
– Gross Shorts:263,968420,47084,430
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.367.035.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.9-32.020.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,056 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.538.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.151.05.2
– Net Position:21,707-21,687-20
– Gross Longs:50,14368,1029,061
– Gross Shorts:28,43689,7899,081
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.057.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-8.4-3.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 208,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -19,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,846 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.445.65.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.563.48.3
– Net Position:208,459-177,172-31,287
– Gross Longs:283,509456,24651,916
– Gross Shorts:75,050633,41883,203
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.113.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-0.411.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 148,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 13,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,557 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.943.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.766.03.8
– Net Position:148,242-164,15215,910
– Gross Longs:196,916317,87843,469
– Gross Shorts:48,674482,03027,559
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.097.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.2-34.923.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,194 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.943.38.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.566.14.6
– Net Position:116,864-137,10920,245
– Gross Longs:168,116260,24048,019
– Gross Shorts:51,252397,34927,774
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.48.557.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-30.33.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 11,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,260 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.028.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.754.113.6
– Net Position:104,016-87,776-16,240
– Gross Longs:154,47198,07330,416
– Gross Shorts:50,455185,84946,656
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.515.441.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-12.8-6.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,711 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.734.76.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.646.88.5
– Net Position:46,461-40,270-6,191
– Gross Longs:124,530114,43821,871
– Gross Shorts:78,069154,70828,062
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.243.140.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.114.322.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,387 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.935.85.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.256.03.2
– Net Position:61,357-69,8438,486
– Gross Longs:131,279124,05819,645
– Gross Shorts:69,922193,90111,159
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.623.784.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:53.8-52.535.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,601 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.750.65.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.439.85.4
– Net Position:-22,07222,199-127
– Gross Longs:44,385103,76210,928
– Gross Shorts:66,45781,56311,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.08.9-12.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,415 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.535.06.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.231.56.4
– Net Position:-18,70717,6421,065
– Gross Longs:138,222175,86733,066
– Gross Shorts:156,929158,22532,001
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.29.660.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-2.631.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
07 Apr

Hormuz closure threatens the global food supply – why grocery price hikes are coming

By Aya S. Chacar, Florida International University 

The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran.

I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end.

Along with about 20% of the world’s crude oil trade and a similar share of the world’s liquefied natural gas shipments, shipping traffic through the strait also carries roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer, which is key to bountiful crops around the world.

Modern agriculture depends on precise timing of delivering nutrients to plants. When fertilizer arrives late or becomes too expensive to buy in sufficient quantities, farmers are left to either reduce the amount they use, plant fewer crops or switch to crops that need less fertilizer. Each option reduces overall productivity, cutting supplies of basic foods, feed for livestock and key ingredients used in a wide range of food products.

Ultimately, with corn prices rising, summer barbecues may taste a bit different or cost more. Corn on the cob may not be cheap, nor will corn-fed beef. In addition, many store-bought condiments, soft drinks and other food products are made with high-fructose corn syrup and will also cost more.

3 main crops, 3 nutrients needed

Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply more than half of the world’s dietary calories.

To maximize production, those crops need three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium. Nitrogen helps plants grow. Phosphorus helps transport energy within plant cells and is critical for early root growth and the formation of seeds and fruit. Potassium helps plants conserve water and boosts protein content.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and increased the cost of all three.

Natural gas, which determines 70% to 90% of the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer, has seen a 20% drop in production due to the war and price increases up to 70%. To preserve its own supplies, Russia has suspended exports of ammonium nitrate, another nitrogen source for fertilizer.

In a similar effort, China, the world’s largest phosphate producer, has blocked phosphate exports, removing 25% of the global supply.

Potash, the potassium-rich component of fertilizers, has also been in short supply in recent years, in part because of economic sanctions on Belarus and Russia, which are major potash producers.

As a consequence, fertilizer prices have risen globally. In the U.S., some fertilizers rose more than 40% in just one month after the war’s start in late February 2026.

An American farmer talks about the cost of fertilizer amid the war in Iran.

Affecting farmers first

Cereal plants absorb the vast majority of their nitrogen needs during their early growth. Applying fertilizer later in the growth cycle is less effective.

Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15%, or delaying application by two to four weeks, can reduce corn yields by 10% to 25%.

Producing less corn and wheat reduces not only food available for humans but also food for livestock. Increased fertilizer costs and reduced grain supplies increase the price of raising livestock, making meat and animal products more expensive.

When feed costs become unsustainable, farmers may be forced to kill or sell off the breeding cows and sows that represent the future of the food supply. In the U.S., a combination of persistent drought and high costs in 2022 forced producers to kill 13.3% of the national beef cow herd, the highest proportion ever. As a result, the U.S. beef cattle inventory shrank to its lowest level since 1962, a problem that restricts beef supplies for years.

Ultimately, the costs are passed to consumers. In 2012, when a historic Midwest drought slashed corn yields by 13%, it triggered a surge in feed prices, and U.S. poultry prices rose 20%.

More money can’t fix this problem

In mid-March 2026, the U.S. fertilizer supply was around 75% of normal levels. That’s right at the beginning of the time when Corn Belt farmers typically prepare their soil for planting, including the first applications of fertilizer. Subsequent fertilizer applications typically come from mid-April to early May and between late May and mid-June.

Farmers who fear not being able to optimize their corn yields may decide to plant less corn or switch crops and plant soybeans, which need less fertilizer. Either would reduce the corn supply.

Government loan guarantees and aid packages may help farmers cover higher costs, but they cannot address timing if enough fertilizer simply isn’t available when it is needed.

Hitting home

American consumers aren’t facing the gas and food shortages or power outages other countries are seeing from the war, but they will be hit in the pocketbook. U.S. prices for gas and jet fuel are already climbing. The effects on the food supply take longer to appear, but they are coming.

Even when crops are bountiful in the U.S., consumers are not immune to global economic forces. A smaller 2026 crop, with rising demand for livestock feed in some of the most populous countries, including China and India, will put pressure on global corn prices, affecting everyone regardless of their nationality.

In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to project a 3.1% average increase for all food prices.

The question for consumers is how much of the rise in corn prices will be passed to the consumer, and how fast.

USDA research shows that the speed and extent of changes in food prices vary widely by food category and the level of processing involved in making the food. Other factors also play a role, such as inventory levels, perishability and market competition. When farm prices change, wholesale prices usually adjust within the first month, but retail prices often take longer – sometimes two to four months.

Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase. Adjustments to cereals or poultry prices will take a little longer. Changes in the cost of livestock products such as beef will take longer, because there are more steps between the purchase of feed corn and the sale of the meat to consumers.

Other indirect costs, related to the cost of fuel and packaging, tend to hit later. Producers often absorb the price increases in the short term, but some increases are already in the works. For instance, transport companies are adding fuel surcharges on freight shipments.

Food price hikes hit low-income households harder than high-income households, because people with lower incomes spend larger shares of their money on food and housing. For these households, even relatively affordable proteins, such as chicken, may become harder to purchase regularly.

A global food emergency

The cost and availability of fertilizer will affect the whole world. More than 300 million people worldwide already do not have enough food. The U.N. World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year.

Crop yields in India and Brazil in 2026 are expected to be lower than normal. East African farmers
struggled to afford fertilizer even before the crisis and will likely have to make do with even less.

These problems may seem removed for most Americans, but food prices are global in nature, and people in the U.S. will soon face these additional costs of the war.The Conversation

About the Author:

Aya S. Chacar, Professor of International Business, Florida International University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
05 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Bets continue higher, Soybean Oil Bets at 5-Year High

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Cotton

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (30,687 contracts) with Cotton (26,120 contracts), Soybean Oil (17,422 contracts), Soybeans (12,636 contracts), Live Cattle (10,113 contracts) and Wheat (7,673 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-40,603 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,434 contracts), Cocoa (-1,485 contracts) and with Coffee (-368 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar Bets continue higher, Soybean Oil Bets at 5-Year High

Highlighting the Soft Commodities speculator positions this week was a continued rise in the Sugar net positioning. Large speculator Sugar positions rose by 30,687 contracts this week and follow up last week’s gigantic rise by over 110,000 contracts as well as coming in as the sixth consecutive week where Sugar bets have risen. Over just the last six weeks, speculators have improved the Sugar position by 188,475 net contracts, bringing the overall speculator standing from -253,592 contracts on February 17th to this week’s total of just -65,117 net positions. This is the least bearish level for Sugar dating back to July of last year.

Soybean Oil has also been on the rise and saw a gain of over 17,000 contracts this week. Soybean Oil bets have been higher in 10 out of the last 13 weeks for an almost 195,000 net contract rise over that period. These gains have taken the Soybean Oil speculator position from over -60,000 contracts on December 30th to this week’s total of 134,557 net speculator positions. The Soybean Oil net position standing now sits at the highest level since January 5th of 2021, a span of 273 weeks.

On the opposite end of the speculator spectrum is Cocoa, which continues to see more bearish positions come into its overall standing. Cocoa positions have now fallen for two straight weeks and for four out of the past five weeks. This has brought the overall speculator position in Cocoa to a -21,601 net position which is the most bearish position dating back to 2019.

Cocoa prices have made a major U-turn in the past few years with the futures price starting a strong surge higher in early 2023 that saw a parabolic move all the way from approximately $2,500 to over $11,500 in short order. After retreating and consolidating in 2024 to a range between $7,000 to $8,500, we saw another big spike up late in 2024 and into early 2025 that saw prices rise above $12,000. Since then, prices have collapsed lower and have now settled in this week with a close of $3,245. Since the beginning of 2025, prices have fallen over 70% and went on an almost a full round trip from where prices started their climb in 2023.

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities price performances this week

The Soft Commodities markets were led this week in price performance by Live Cattle, which rose by 4.21% over the past five days. Cocoa came in second with a 2.56% gain, while Soybean Oil was also higher by 2.27%. Cotton also managed to rise more than 2% this week with a 2.10% increase. Soybeans saw a modest rise by 0.37%, while Lean Hogs rounded out the gainers on the week with a 0.17% advance.

Soybean Meal was virtually unchanged with a -0.03% shortfall. Corn fell by over 2% with a -2.11% decline, followed by Wheat which fell by -2.69% on the week. Coffee dropped by -3.98% for the week, while Sugar was the biggest loser on the week with a -5.48% decline.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent) and Wheat (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (94 percent), Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (35 percent), Coffee (48 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (81.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (87.3 percent)
Sugar (35.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.6 percent)
Coffee (48.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.7 percent)
Soybeans (94.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (91.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (91.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (94.9 percent)
Live Cattle (68.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (57.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (60.4 percent)
Cotton (67.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (52.3 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.4 percent)
Wheat (96.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (89.6 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (62 percent) and Corn (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (45 percent), Wheat (41 percent) and Soybean Oil (39 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (46.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (53.6 percent)
Sugar (35.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.2 percent)
Coffee (12.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.5 percent)
Soybeans (8.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (15.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (51.3 percent)
Live Cattle (0.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.9 percent)
Cotton (62.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (43.8 percent)
Cocoa (-3.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (40.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 334,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 375,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.840.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.455.810.9
– Net Position:334,757-273,643-61,114
– Gross Longs:488,759745,244138,269
– Gross Shorts:154,0021,018,887199,383
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.815.735.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-45.4-50.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.852.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.846.78.8
– Net Position:-65,11749,63715,480
– Gross Longs:192,731482,93396,642
– Gross Shorts:257,848433,29681,162
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.464.149.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.4-35.933.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.437.85.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.152.54.7
– Net Position:25,056-25,934878
– Gross Longs:51,59366,2899,169
– Gross Shorts:26,53792,2238,291
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.353.128.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-12.920.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 227,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 215,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.845.45.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.665.28.6
– Net Position:227,846-194,445-33,401
– Gross Longs:292,633445,07151,226
– Gross Shorts:64,787639,51684,627
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.28.16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-8.42.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 134,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.244.85.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.164.93.8
– Net Position:134,557-148,94914,392
– Gross Longs:186,950332,08842,373
– Gross Shorts:52,393481,03727,981
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.090.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.3-38.417.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 120,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 127,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.543.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.267.64.5
– Net Position:120,194-141,21621,022
– Gross Longs:175,060259,73447,754
– Gross Shorts:54,866400,95026,732
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.96.661.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.2-47.616.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 92,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.030.28.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.753.113.2
– Net Position:92,260-77,534-14,726
– Gross Longs:145,655102,49630,134
– Gross Shorts:53,395180,03044,860
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.927.846.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.0-4.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.635.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.446.28.5
– Net Position:43,711-37,042-6,669
– Gross Longs:120,667115,18521,369
– Gross Shorts:76,956152,22728,038
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.245.537.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.715.220.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 48,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 26,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.336.55.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.453.12.9
– Net Position:48,387-57,9489,561
– Gross Longs:129,730126,81819,624
– Gross Shorts:81,343184,76610,063
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.930.392.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:62.0-62.060.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.149.45.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.739.94.6
– Net Position:-21,60119,3662,235
– Gross Longs:42,906100,63111,697
– Gross Shorts:64,50781,2659,462
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.648.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.62.016.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.733.16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.631.66.6
– Net Position:-9,4157,5241,891
– Gross Longs:145,000161,92533,907
– Gross Shorts:154,415154,40132,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.50.065.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.5-48.530.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
29 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was a gigantic jump for Sugar (111,951 contracts) with Corn (63,018 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,533 contracts), Wheat (8,580 contracts), Coffee (6,830 contracts), Cotton (6,042 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,985 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-14,913 contracts), Soybeans (-5,856 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,962 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,257 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

Highlighting the Soft Commodities speculator positional changes this week was Sugar, which saw a substantial influx of positive speculator positions. The net speculator position rose by 111,951 net contracts this week, marking the highest one-week amount in history for Sugar positions. Sugar has now seen speculator bets rise for five consecutive weeks, taking the overall net position from a level of -253,592 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s total of -95,804 net contracts. Overall, Sugar speculator bets have been in a bearish position since May of 2025 but this week’s level is the least bearish position since September.

Corn also saw a jump in speculator positions and rose by 63,000 contracts this week. The Corn speculator position has now risen for seven consecutive weeks, and over that time frame, the net position has improved by a huge 410,058 net contracts. This has taken the total spec position from a negative standing of -18,333 contracts on February 10th to a strong bullish position this week of 375,360 net contracts.

Soybean Oil and Cotton led Soft Commodities price performance.

The Soft Commodities price performance this week was led by Soybean Oil, which rose by almost 5% on the week with a 4.86% gain. Next up was Cotton, which rose by just over 3.5% with a 3.56% increase. Live Cattle was up by 2.3%. Sugar rose by 1.63% and was followed by Wheat with a 1.40% gain and Lean Hogs with 1.31% increase on the week. Rounding out the gainers was Soybeans with a 0.46% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Meal was the biggest loser on the week with a -2.80% decline, followed by Cocoa, which dipped by -2.50%, and Coffee, which fell by -2.15%. Corn was a little bit lower this week with a -1.17% decrease over the last five-day period.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (98 percent) and Soybean Meal (95 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (91 percent), Wheat (90 percent) and Corn (87 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (87.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.7 percent)
Sugar (29.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (48.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybeans (91.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (94.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (60.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (71.1 percent)
Cotton (52.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (48.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.7 percent)
Wheat (89.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (82.0 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (54 percent) and Soybean Meal (51 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (48 percent), Cotton (44 percent) and Soybean Oil (33 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-4 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (53.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (47.2 percent)
Sugar (26.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.5 percent)
Coffee (11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybeans (15.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (44.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (43.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.1 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (48.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 375,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 63,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.140.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.258.111.0
– Net Position:375,360-314,222-61,138
– Gross Longs:505,346729,492137,322
– Gross Shorts:129,9861,043,714198,460
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.39.635.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:53.6-53.3-49.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 111,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.851.29.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.043.17.6
– Net Position:-95,80476,32919,475
– Gross Longs:205,205482,04090,528
– Gross Shorts:301,009405,71171,053
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.668.554.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.2-30.351.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.537.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.052.65.0
– Net Position:25,424-26,309885
– Gross Longs:53,34665,7319,573
– Gross Shorts:27,92292,0408,688
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.752.728.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-11.68.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 215,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.446.15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.065.18.7
– Net Position:215,210-182,268-32,942
– Gross Longs:282,458441,99050,876
– Gross Shorts:67,248624,25883,818
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.410.98.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-14.5-17.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 117,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.346.95.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.464.63.5
– Net Position:117,135-130,55513,420
– Gross Longs:172,116346,31638,917
– Gross Shorts:54,981476,87125,497
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.52.385.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.6-32.118.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 127,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.743.18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.769.24.3
– Net Position:127,071-150,75723,686
– Gross Longs:177,113248,24248,314
– Gross Shorts:50,042398,99924,628
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.92.376.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.3-56.648.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.731.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.151.812.8
– Net Position:82,147-69,198-12,949
– Gross Longs:136,153104,08829,818
– Gross Shorts:54,006173,28642,767
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.837.952.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.65.1-2.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,913 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.933.96.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.645.88.5
– Net Position:48,145-40,130-8,015
– Gross Longs:127,801114,53420,532
– Gross Shorts:79,656154,66428,547
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.443.229.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.926.04.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.638.45.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.847.33.6
– Net Position:22,267-28,9746,707
– Gross Longs:120,118126,03418,361
– Gross Shorts:97,851155,00811,654
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.346.371.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.8-43.640.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -20,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.349.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.739.55.0
– Net Position:-20,11619,816300
– Gross Longs:43,45096,6609,942
– Gross Shorts:63,56676,8449,642
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.7100.030.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.12.0-10.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.334.56.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.831.16.5
– Net Position:-17,08816,349739
– Gross Longs:137,228167,28332,319
– Gross Shorts:154,316150,93431,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.64.458.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:48.1-55.28.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
07 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (81,231 contracts) with Soybean Meal (21,920 contracts), Soybeans (11,630 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,052 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,752 contracts), Sugar (1,089 contracts) and Cotton (873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,920 contracts), Cocoa (-4,550 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,896 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,014 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Oil leads the Soft Commodities price performance this week

Leading the soft commodities price performance this week was Soybean Oil with a strong 7.13% gain over the past five days. Coffee rose this week by 4.67%, followed by Wheat, which rose by 4.61%. Corn was higher by 3.64%. Soybeans were up by 2.54%, and Sugar was higher by approximately 2% on the week. Live Cattle was up by 1.77%, and Lean Hogs advanced by 0.32%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Soybean Meal with a -3.78% decline, followed by Cotton, which dipped by -2.28%. And Cocoa was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.26%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (93 percent) and Soybean Oil (86 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (82 percent), Lean Hogs (80 percent) and Soybean Meal (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) and Sugar (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (22 percent) and the Coffee (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (48.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.4 percent)
Sugar (1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.4 percent)
Coffee (34.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.0 percent)
Soybeans (92.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (90.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (86.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.3 percent)
Live Cattle (64.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (75.3 percent)
Cotton (22.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.3 percent)
Wheat (81.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (90.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (60 percent) and Soybean Oil (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (39 percent), Soybeans (36 percent) and Corn (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.8 percent)
Sugar (-12.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-15.1 percent)
Coffee (-19.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-20.0 percent)
Soybeans (36.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-1.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (5.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (19.7 percent)
Cotton (-1.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.5 percent)
Wheat (60.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (62.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a huge weekly increase of 81,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.845.68.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.249.310.1
– Net Position:90,059-59,782-30,277
– Gross Longs:336,624738,095132,844
– Gross Shorts:246,565797,877163,121
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.548.171.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-19.4-16.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -245,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -246,123 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.453.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.829.27.8
– Net Position:-245,034251,319-6,285
– Gross Longs:193,313557,89275,220
– Gross Shorts:438,347306,57381,505
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.697.623.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.510.26.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.242.54.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.848.94.1
– Net Position:10,800-10,84040
– Gross Longs:47,70472,0717,071
– Gross Shorts:36,90482,9117,031
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.067.718.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.018.7-5.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 221,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.742.34.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.261.58.2
– Net Position:221,902-188,859-33,043
– Gross Longs:303,059418,11948,014
– Gross Shorts:81,157606,97881,057
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.99.413.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.3-34.1-44.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 73,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.846.05.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.558.03.7
– Net Position:73,189-85,77912,590
– Gross Longs:169,509327,39039,288
– Gross Shorts:96,320413,16926,698
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.113.581.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.7-43.460.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.547.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.665.25.3
– Net Position:72,755-90,22617,471
– Gross Longs:143,508249,23545,080
– Gross Shorts:70,753339,46127,609
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.335.742.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.1-41.016.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 87,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.929.88.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.251.612.0
– Net Position:87,850-74,493-13,357
– Gross Longs:146,655102,03327,700
– Gross Shorts:58,805176,52641,057
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.531.551.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.53.6-5.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.529.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.646.98.0
– Net Position:74,970-65,300-9,670
– Gross Longs:152,501111,25320,445
– Gross Shorts:77,531176,55330,115
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.624.019.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.3-12.4-14.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.242.24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.734.73.6
– Net Position:-28,09724,5233,574
– Gross Longs:112,260138,60515,326
– Gross Shorts:140,357114,08211,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.475.848.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.40.68.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.947.15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.238.55.0
– Net Position:-17,83016,4801,350
– Gross Longs:41,97490,28010,890
– Gross Shorts:59,80473,8009,540
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.098.040.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.0-2.020.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.232.87.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.026.77.7
– Net Position:-26,00827,472-1,464
– Gross Longs:121,504146,56932,849
– Gross Shorts:147,512119,09734,313
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.715.545.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:60.1-63.0-25.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
25 Feb
coffee_beans

Coffee crops are dying from a fungus with species-jumping genes – researchers are ‘resurrecting’ their genomes to understand how and why

By Lily Peck, University of California, Los Angeles 

For anyone who relies on coffee to start their day, coffee wilt disease may be the most important disease you’ve never heard of. This fungal disease has repeatedly reshaped the global coffee supply over the past century, with consequences that reach from African farms to cafe counters worldwide.

Infection with the fungus Fusarium xylarioides results in a characteristic “wilt” in coffee plants by blocking and reducing the plant’s ability to transport water. This blockage eventually kills the plant.

Some of the most destructive plant pathogens in the world infect their hosts in this way. Since the 1990s, outbreaks of coffee wilt have cost over US$1 billion, forced countless farms to close and caused dramatic drops in national coffee production. In Uganda, one of Africa’s largest producers, coffee production did not recover to pre-outbreak levels until 2020, decades after coffee wilt was first detected there. And in 2023, researchers found evidence that coffee wilt disease had resurfaced across all coffee-producing regions of Ivory Coast.

Studying the genetics of plant pathogens is crucial to understanding why this disease continues to return and how to prevent another major outbreak.

Rise and fall of coffee wilt disease in Africa

While early outbreaks of coffee wilt disease affected a wide range of coffee types, later epidemics primarily affected the two coffee species dominating global markets today: arabica and robusta.

First identified in 1927, coffee wilt disease decimated several varieties of coffee grown in western and central Africa. Although farmers combated the fungus with a shift to supposedly resistant robusta crops in the 1950s, the reprieve was short-lived.

The disease reemerged in the 1970s on robusta coffee, spreading through eastern and central Africa. By the mid-1990s, yields had collapsed and coffee production could not recover in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Separately, researchers identified the disease on arabica coffee in Ethiopia in the 1950s and watched it become widespread by the 1970s

Two side-by-side maps of Africa with several regions highlighted to indicate coffee wilt disease outbreaks
Coffee wilt disease has spread widely in Africa. The first outbreak before the 1950s affected mainly central and western Africa (left map) while the second outbreak originated in central Africa and spread east (right map). Affected countries are colored by the decade the disease was first detected.
Peck et al 2023/Plant Pathology, CC BY-SA

Although coffee wilt disease is currently endemic at low and manageable levels across eastern and central Africa, any future resurgence of the disease could be catastrophic for African coffee production. Coffee wilt also poses a threat to producers in Asia and the Americas.

New types of disease emerge

Coffee wilt disease evolved alongside coffee itself. Over the past century, it has repeatedly reemerged, attacking different types of coffee each time. But did these shifts reflect the rapid evolution of new types of disease, or something else entirely?

Fungal disease has devastated plants for millennia, with the earliest records of outbreaks dating from the biblical plagues. Like humans, plants have an immune system that protects them against attacks from pathogens like fungi.

While most fungal attempts at infection fail, a small number do succeed thanks to the constant evolutionary pressure on pathogens to overcome host plant defenses. In this evolutionary arms race, pathogens and hosts continuously adapt to each other by genetically changing their DNA. Boom and bust cycles of disease occur as one gains advantage over the other.

The rise of modern agriculture has led to widespread monocultures of genetically uniform crops. While monocultures have significantly boosted food production, they have also contributed to environmental degradation and increased plant vulnerability to disease.

Crop breeders have attempted to protect monocultures by introducing disease resistance genes, with farms widely applying fungicides and other environmentally damaging products. But these relatively weak protections for hundreds of acres of identical plants have resulted in outbreaks decimating crops that people depend on.

It’s likely that modern agriculture’s reliance on monocultures has enabled and accelerated the evolution of new types of pathogen capable of overcoming resistance in plants. As a result, crops become more susceptible to disease outbreaks.

Resurrecting fungal strains

Understanding the lessons of the past is essential to avoiding future plant pandemics. But this can be challenging, because the specific pathogen strains that caused previous disease outbreaks may no longer exist in nature or may have changed substantially.

In my research on the evolutionary arms race between host and pathogen in coffee wilt disease, I sought to address these problems by “resurrecting” historical strains of the fungus that causes the disease, Fusarium xylarioides. Researchers know little about why the earlier and later outbreaks targeted different types of coffee, so I explored the genetic changes in F. xylarioides that underlie this narrowing of its hosts.

I reconstructed historical genetic changes in the major coffee wilt disease outbreaks over the past seven decades by using strains from a fungus library – culture collections that preserve living fungi. These libraries store long-term living data and reflect the fungal genetic diversity present at the time of collection.

Microscopy image of blue fuzzy sphere with long extensions
Gibberella (Fusarium) xylarioides, with arrow pointing to its spore-containing sac.
Julie Flood

Whether a pathogen takes the upper hand in the evolutionary arms race depends on its ability to generate new types of genes. It can do so either by changing and rearranging its DNA sequence or by moving DNA sequences between organisms in a process called horizontal gene transfer. These mechanisms can create new effector genes that enable pathogens to infect and colonize a host plant.

Initially, I sequenced six whole genomes of strains involved in outbreaks before the 1970s as well as later outbreaks that specifically targeted arabica or robusta coffee plants. I found that strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica or robusta genetically differed from each other, with most of these differences inherited from parent to offspring. This process is called vertical inheritance.

Genes that jump between species

However, I also found that several regions of the F. xylarioides genome were potentially acquired horizontally from F. oxysporum, a global plant pathogen that infects over 120 crops, including bananas and tomatoes. These included different regions of the genome across strains specific to arabica and robusta coffee.

But did these changes introduce new effector genes in the F. xylarioides strains that infect arabica and robusta coffee plants specifically? To answer this question, I first sequenced and assembled the first F. xylarioides reference genome, stitching together long stretches of DNA. I then sequenced and compared this reference genome to the whole genomes of three more pre-1970s F. xylarioides strains and 10 additional historical Fusarium strains found on or around diseased coffee bushes, as well as F. xylarioides strains from infected arabica coffee seedlings.

I found substantial evidence for horizontal transfer of disease-causing genes between species of Fusarium. This includes the presence of giant genetic components called Starships in Fusarium. These so-called jumping genes carry their own molecular machinery, allowing them to move around or between genomes. Genes involved in adaptation, such as those linked to virulence, metabolism or host interaction, also move with them. Scientists think Starships may potentially enable fungi to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

I found that large and highly similar genetic regions, including Starships and active effector genes involved in disease, had moved from F. oxysporum to F. xylarioides. Importantly, different genetic regions were present across strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica and robusta, but they were absent from other related Fusarium species. This suggests that these genes were gained from F. oxysporum.

Arming farmers with knowledge

Today, a third of all global crop yields are lost to pest and disease. Reconciling the tension between agricultural productivity and environmental protection is important to balance humanity’s needs for the future. Central to this challenge is reducing the spread of disease and new outbreaks.

On the flip side to monocultures, many plant species surrounding and within small and family-run coffee farms in sub-Saharan Africa may act as disease reservoirs, where fungi pathogens can lurk. These include banana trees and Solanum weeds in the tomato family that are susceptible to fungal infection.

Human farming practices may have inadvertently created an artificial niche for these fungi, with coffee bushes brought into widespread contact with banana plants and Solanum weeds. If fungi in the same genus can frequently exchange genetic material, it could accelerate the ability of plant pathogens to adapt to new hosts.

Testing noncoffee plants for F. xylarioides infection could reveal alternative plant species where different Fusarium fungi come into contact and exchange genetic material. This matters because across sub-Saharan Africa, coffee plants often share fields with banana trees and weeds. If these neighboring plants can harbor fungi that act as new sources of genetic variation, they may help fuel new disease strains.

Identifying the plants that can act as hosts to fungi could give farmers practical options to reduce coffee plants’ risk of disease, from targeted weed management to avoiding the planting of vulnerable crops side by side.The Conversation

About the Author:

Lily Peck, Postdoctoral Scholar in Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
21 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (45,457 contracts) with Wheat (16,200 contracts), Corn (10,495 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,979 contracts) and Cocoa (1,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-18,191 contracts), Lean Hogs (-15,873 contracts), Cotton (-4,407 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,306 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,071 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Price performance leaders were Wheat and Soybean Oil this week. Wheat was the highest riser in the past five days with a 3.89% gain and Soybean Oil was higher by 3.25% in the same period.

Lean Hogs rose by 2.58%, Cotton was higher by 2.35%, and Sugar also got a boost by over 2% on the week. Live Cattle rose by approximately 1% and Soybean Meal saw a gain of 0.62%. Soybeans and Corn were virtually unchanged on the week.

Leading the declines on the week was Cocoa, which dropped sharply by approximately -15% and followed by Coffee which was also lower by -4.87%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (86 percent), Lean Hogs (74 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Wheat (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (35.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.7 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.4 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybeans (86.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (76.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.2 percent)
Live Cattle (68.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (85.3 percent)
Cotton (5.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (55.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (60 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (19 percent), Lean Hogs (18 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Coffee (-18 percent) and Cotton (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Coffee (-17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-10.7 percent)
Soybeans (19.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (10.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-19.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.6 percent)
Wheat (29.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.946.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.445.39.3
– Net Position:-7,83525,990-18,155
– Gross Longs:336,717831,608146,498
– Gross Shorts:344,552805,618164,653
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.161.185.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.210.30.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -253,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.656.97.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.732.78.6
– Net Position:-253,592265,824-12,232
– Gross Longs:171,981625,81282,477
– Gross Shorts:425,573359,98894,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.016.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.717.6-7.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.342.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.150.05.0
– Net Position:12,860-12,616-244
– Gross Longs:47,50265,7227,517
– Gross Shorts:34,64278,3387,761
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.166.013.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.4-22.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 191,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.947.15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.463.18.5
– Net Position:191,791-157,771-34,020
– Gross Longs:274,388463,65249,618
– Gross Shorts:82,597621,42383,638
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.216.518.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-15.4-54.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.747.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.455.83.7
– Net Position:51,971-62,88010,909
– Gross Longs:155,039335,70437,409
– Gross Shorts:103,068398,58426,500
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.825.872.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:59.6-62.767.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.853.89.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.360.75.5
– Net Position:18,346-36,47318,127
– Gross Longs:109,382283,09147,273
– Gross Shorts:91,036319,56429,146
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.961.345.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.7-14.437.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 91,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.631.08.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.854.712.3
– Net Position:91,735-78,353-13,382
– Gross Longs:150,433102,30827,276
– Gross Shorts:58,698180,66140,658
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.426.851.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-11.5-5.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.832.35.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.847.68.3
– Net Position:67,022-57,027-9,995
– Gross Longs:147,998119,95620,920
– Gross Shorts:80,976176,98330,915
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.930.317.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-16.8-21.6

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.446.24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.930.14.2
– Net Position:-55,73354,3891,344
– Gross Longs:99,583156,45215,630
– Gross Shorts:155,316102,06314,286
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.992.332.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.016.3-19.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.048.37.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.337.27.1
– Net Position:-17,61817,159459
– Gross Longs:29,31074,71611,431
– Gross Shorts:46,92857,55710,972
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.298.631.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.417.910.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.835.56.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.523.17.5
– Net Position:-55,05858,384-3,326
– Gross Longs:122,049167,70732,177
– Gross Shorts:177,107109,32335,503
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.946.234.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-26.4-37.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
08 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Speculator Bets hit All-Time Record Low

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Lean Hogs

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,433 contracts) with Wheat (13,894 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,118 contracts), Soybeans (6,736 contracts), Live Cattle (2,871 contracts) and Cocoa (994 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-42,536 contracts), Coffee (-14,370 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,369 contracts), Cotton (-3,777 contracts) and with Corn (-3,027 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft commodities price performance was led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil, and Soybeans

The top movers this week in price performance for the soft commodities markets were Lean Hogs with a gain of 3.74%, followed by Soybean Oil which rose by 3.17%, and Soybeans which rose by 3.46% over the past five days. Corn was virtually unchanged with a small rise of 0.11%, while Live Cattle was unchanged on the week.

On the downside, Sugar fell by -0.76%, while Cocoa was lower by -1.10% and wheat was down by -1.29%. Cotton dropped by over two percent with a -2.30% decline, while Soybean Meal fell by -3.76%. Coffee was the biggest decliner on the week with a sharp drop of -10.05%.

Sugar Speculator Bets hit all-time low

Highlighting the soft commodities changes this week was an all-time record low hit in the Sugar speculator positions. The large speculator bets for Sugar fell for the fifth consecutive week, and have now fallen by over -72,000 contracts in just these past five weeks. This week’s decline by over -42,000 contracts marked the largest shortfall in spec bets since September, a span of 21 weeks.

Sugar bets for speculators were positive as recently as May of last year, but turned negative on June 3rd, and have now been in an overall bearish position for 36 consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have pushed their bearish positions greater than -100,000 net contracts for 22 consecutive weeks. This weak sentiment culminated in an all-time record low standing for speculators at a total position of -210,289 contracts through Tuesday.

The Sugar price in the futures market has been on a deep, strong downtrend and has fallen approximately 34% in the past 52 weeks. The Sugar price had been on a strong uptrend starting from April of 2020 all the way through November of 2023, where prices rose by over 200%. Since that 2022 high, however, prices have gone the other way and have declined by over 50% and are currently hovering near five-year lows.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Soybeans (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (3 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (31.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.7 percent)
Coffee (41.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybeans (57.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.8 percent)
Live Cattle (68.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (13.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.9 percent)
Cocoa (3.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.2 percent)
Wheat (46.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (34.4 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (54 percent) and Lean Hogs (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Wheat (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-16 percent), Corn (-14 percent) and Sugar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.3 percent)
Sugar (-12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.1 percent)
Coffee (-5.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (-20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (54.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.5 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.1 percent)
Cotton (-6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-15.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (5.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.844.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.841.69.2
– Net Position:-34,69852,916-18,218
– Gross Longs:344,781777,607142,658
– Gross Shorts:379,479724,691160,876
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.565.285.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.614.26.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -210,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.657.27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.435.09.9
– Net Position:-210,289236,034-25,745
– Gross Longs:154,357606,37478,697
– Gross Shorts:364,646370,340104,442
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.414.4-25.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.544.24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.354.74.6
– Net Position:18,364-18,837473
– Gross Longs:49,34279,4058,768
– Gross Shorts:30,97898,2428,295
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.660.025.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.36.0-14.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.251.45.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.956.38.2
– Net Position:64,167-43,272-20,895
– Gross Longs:177,970454,01751,496
– Gross Shorts:113,803497,28972,391
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.942.757.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.724.5-35.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.847.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.453.54.3
– Net Position:35,907-39,9534,046
– Gross Longs:138,652317,65432,766
– Gross Shorts:102,745357,60728,720
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.538.138.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:54.2-54.235.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.852.28.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.255.06.0
– Net Position:2,824-15,61612,792
– Gross Longs:113,333284,65345,555
– Gross Shorts:110,509300,26932,763
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.069.316.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.30.12.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 91,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.132.28.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.855.911.9
– Net Position:91,849-79,657-12,192
– Gross Longs:151,701108,31927,757
– Gross Shorts:59,852187,97639,949
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.525.255.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.9-17.03.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 79,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.130.26.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.949.08.6
– Net Position:79,369-70,574-8,795
– Gross Longs:161,832113,50823,472
– Gross Shorts:82,463184,08232,267
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.820.024.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.9-29.5-18.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.849.13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.038.03.7
– Net Position:-42,74442,398346
– Gross Longs:101,788186,65414,382
– Gross Shorts:144,532144,25614,036
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.685.725.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.66.10.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.447.76.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.439.06.0
– Net Position:-14,50813,961547
– Gross Longs:31,04276,46610,089
– Gross Shorts:45,55062,5059,542
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.295.732.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.612.823.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.336.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.424.26.1
– Net Position:-65,49667,064-1,568
– Gross Longs:121,319198,55031,828
– Gross Shorts:186,815131,48633,396
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.754.844.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-5.3-5.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Corn

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Corn

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,733 contracts) with Corn (20,033 contracts), Soybean Meal (14,496 contracts), Wheat (14,340 contracts), Sugar (10,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (9,539 contracts), Coffee (2,971 contracts) and Cocoa (2,372 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-13,143 contracts), Soybeans (-698 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-371 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle lead price performance this week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led by Live Cattle, which rose by 1.34 percent, followed by Wheat, which increased by 1.06 percent in the last five days. Corn was the only other market that saw a rise with a 0.34 percent gain.

On the downside, Coffee led the decreases on the week with a -5.58 percent decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by -3.35 percent, and Sugar, which also fell a similar -3.25 percent. Cotton saw a shortfall of -1.36 percent while Soybean Oil (-0.95%), Lean Hogs (-0.90%), and Cocoa (-0.86%) all fell by just under one percent. Soybeans were virtually unchanged with a -0.13 percent decline on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (73 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (66 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (2 percent), Sugar (7 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.2 percent)
Sugar (6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (24.3 percent)
Live Cattle (65.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (66.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (66.3 percent)
Cotton (15.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (34.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (43 percent) and Lean Hogs (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Coffee (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.2 percent)
Sugar (-2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (2.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.0 percent)
Soybeans (-30.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-35.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-8.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-57.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.045.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.942.39.5
– Net Position:-31,67152,691-21,020
– Gross Longs:341,576774,514140,713
– Gross Shorts:373,247721,823161,733
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.965.282.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.36.53.8

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.256.27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.938.78.5
– Net Position:-167,753176,753-9,000
– Gross Longs:153,423565,90176,260
– Gross Shorts:321,176389,14885,260
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.894.28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.0-0.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.740.34.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.959.83.6
– Net Position:32,734-34,0821,348
– Gross Longs:57,11870,4877,625
– Gross Shorts:24,384104,5696,277
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.045.240.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.8-3.39.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.551.76.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.856.08.5
– Net Position:57,431-37,074-20,357
– Gross Longs:167,074444,21652,360
– Gross Shorts:109,643481,29072,717
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.444.159.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.031.6-7.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.146.95.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.853.84.4
– Net Position:41,276-45,6164,340
– Gross Longs:139,537310,53133,483
– Gross Shorts:98,261356,14729,143
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.735.140.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.7-43.232.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.651.08.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.152.55.5
– Net Position:-8,294-8,06916,363
– Gross Longs:115,053271,98445,638
– Gross Shorts:123,347280,05329,275
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.872.235.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.57.911.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 88,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.532.98.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.756.212.2
– Net Position:88,978-77,526-11,452
– Gross Longs:147,788109,33029,206
– Gross Shorts:58,810186,85640,658
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.627.858.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.9-17.44.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.031.76.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.547.98.9
– Net Position:65,936-57,624-8,312
– Gross Longs:149,861113,36723,425
– Gross Shorts:83,925170,99131,737
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.229.927.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.1-23.6-15.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.648.93.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.338.23.8
– Net Position:-38,96738,648319
– Gross Longs:96,472177,24114,078
– Gross Shorts:135,439138,59313,759
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.983.624.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.2-0.914.4

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.448.26.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.837.37.2
– Net Position:-15,50216,293-791
– Gross Longs:27,45272,0669,984
– Gross Shorts:42,95455,77310,775
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.297.819.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.514.019.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.436.56.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.222.15.7
– Net Position:-79,39077,3632,027
– Gross Longs:119,821195,72132,444
– Gross Shorts:199,211118,35830,417
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.465.166.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.924.824.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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