Archive for Soft Commodities

18 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (33,391 contracts) with Corn (30,483 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,649 contracts), Soybeans (12,596 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,577 contracts), Cotton (7,019 contracts), Cocoa (2,145 contracts) and Coffee (2,204 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-11,963 contracts) with Sugar (-2,872 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-807 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Soft Commodities Price Performances this week

The top market this week in the Soft Commodities price performances was Wheat, which rose by a strong 7.17% over the past five days. Soybean Oil comes in next with a 2.84% rise on the week, while Lean Hogs was up by 2.68%.

Soybeans had a modest 0.52% gain on the week, and Corn rounded out the gainers with a 0.16% increase.

On the downside, Sugar dipped by -0.27%, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by a similar -0.30%. Cotton dropped by more than -2.5% with a -2.88% decline, while Live Cattle dropped by -4.27%, and Coffee fell by -4.93% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Cocoa, which saw a reduction by -6.08%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (86 percent) currently lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (74 percent), Soybeans (71 percent) and Soybean Meal (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (38 percent) and the Live Cattle (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (50.0 percent)
Sugar (38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (39.0 percent)
Coffee (51.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.9 percent)
Soybeans (71.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (68.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (70.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.5 percent)
Live Cattle (46.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.5 percent)
Cotton (95.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (91.7 percent)
Cocoa (11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.8 percent)
Wheat (85.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (9 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.4 percent)
Sugar (9.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (14.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybeans (-13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-28.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-5.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.2 percent)
Cotton (6.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.4 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.1 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-33.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 30,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,980 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.241.28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.546.810.4
– Net Position:131,463-94,976-36,487
– Gross Longs:482,223703,349140,668
– Gross Shorts:350,760798,325177,155
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.142.873.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.32.544.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,273 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.047.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.241.97.1
– Net Position:-62,14558,2633,882
– Gross Longs:270,018477,14974,460
– Gross Shorts:332,163418,88670,578
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.463.237.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-8.64.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,623 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.338.24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.655.93.3
– Net Position:27,827-29,4501,623
– Gross Longs:53,91363,8177,156
– Gross Shorts:26,08693,2675,533
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.149.743.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.5-15.526.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 125,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 12,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,807 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.049.84.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.559.87.0
– Net Position:125,403-101,014-24,389
– Gross Longs:220,823500,11946,389
– Gross Shorts:95,420601,13370,778
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.529.537.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.814.6-4.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,666 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.147.45.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.366.04.0
– Net Position:107,243-118,35911,116
– Gross Longs:159,949302,75136,891
– Gross Shorts:52,706421,11025,775
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.925.173.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.614.617.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 24,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,388 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.443.48.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.962.04.5
– Net Position:87,037-111,25224,215
– Gross Longs:170,509260,24451,424
– Gross Shorts:83,472371,49627,209
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.529.278.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.026.027.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,668 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.233.59.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.953.111.6
– Net Position:69,705-61,324-8,381
– Gross Longs:122,352104,34527,905
– Gross Shorts:52,647165,66936,286
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.546.068.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.76.736.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,421 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.943.77.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.821.57.1
– Net Position:-65,22863,1532,075
– Gross Longs:62,355124,45722,248
– Gross Shorts:127,58361,30420,173
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.099.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.714.731.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,428 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.735.15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.167.82.5
– Net Position:95,447-105,2789,831
– Gross Longs:134,337113,27117,856
– Gross Shorts:38,890218,5498,025
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.96.472.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-6.49.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,729 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.750.25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.945.74.3
– Net Position:-10,5849,1701,414
– Gross Longs:33,972102,31710,134
– Gross Shorts:44,55693,1478,720
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.786.940.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-6.912.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,730 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.539.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.336.37.9
– Net Position:-16,33915,634705
– Gross Longs:117,880171,30734,741
– Gross Shorts:134,219155,67334,036
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.516.256.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.5-19.7-9.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
12 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (37,457 contracts) with Corn (36,803 contracts), Soybeans (36,180 contracts), Soybean Meal (13,702 contracts), Cotton (10,580 contracts), Wheat (5,274 contracts), Coffee (5,092 contracts) and Cocoa (1,731 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the decreases in weekly speculator bets were Live Cattle (-6,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,783 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-2,150 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Price Performances

This week’s Soft Commodities price performances were led by super strong performances from Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa jumped by 18.61% this week, followed by Coffee, which was higher by 12.13%. Next up, Cotton rose higher by 5.74%, while Wheat advanced by 5.42%, and Soybean Oil was also higher by over 5% with a 5.38% increase.

Soybean Meal was higher than 3% with a 3.46% rise, while Corn saw an advance by 2.56%. Soybeans rose by 1.84% on the week, while Lean Hogs was up marginally by 0.25%, and Sugar saw a minuscule uptick by 0.07%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was the only decliner on the week with a -1.60% decrease.

Cocoa and Coffee have been seeing strong trends higher as Cocoa is up by over 44% in the past 30 days, while Coffee is up by 25% in the past 30 days. Cocoa’s 90-day gain is now a whopping 97.72%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Live Cattle (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (39 percent) and the Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.9 percent)
Sugar (39.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.5 percent)
Coffee (48.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (91.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.4 percent)
Cocoa (9.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.2 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.0 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (9 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-34 percent), Corn (-27 percent) and Lean Hogs (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-40.0 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Coffee (9.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybeans (-20.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-45.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-32.8 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.7 percent)
Cocoa (3.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-33.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 100,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 36,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,177 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.940.98.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.044.910.2
– Net Position:100,980-67,654-33,326
– Gross Longs:478,153700,793141,480
– Gross Shorts:377,173768,447174,806
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.046.976.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.424.831.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 37,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,730 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.446.57.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.341.07.5
– Net Position:-59,27355,4153,858
– Gross Longs:263,310464,35278,490
– Gross Shorts:322,583408,93774,632
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.062.736.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-4.13.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 5,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,531 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.135.74.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.451.53.4
– Net Position:25,623-27,5681,945
– Gross Longs:59,41462,3087,876
– Gross Shorts:33,79189,8765,931
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.951.549.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-10.531.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 36,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,627 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.150.84.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.559.67.2
– Net Position:112,807-85,585-27,222
– Gross Longs:215,618495,67643,415
– Gross Shorts:102,811581,26170,637
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.733.027.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.420.82.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 94,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,449 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.65.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.763.84.1
– Net Position:94,666-104,3089,642
– Gross Longs:150,422305,64635,851
– Gross Shorts:55,756409,95426,209
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.830.566.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.919.8-21.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,686 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.544.78.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.059.24.4
– Net Position:62,388-86,21723,829
– Gross Longs:169,619266,25850,121
– Gross Shorts:107,231352,47526,292
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.539.376.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.438.2-14.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,861 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.830.48.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.052.711.4
– Net Position:81,668-70,893-10,775
– Gross Longs:138,66296,23925,345
– Gross Shorts:56,994167,13236,120
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.434.160.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.15.52.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,271 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.744.27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.523.16.9
– Net Position:-64,42162,2682,153
– Gross Longs:67,415130,90722,710
– Gross Shorts:131,83668,63920,557
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.323.127.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,848 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.234.94.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.465.02.6
– Net Position:88,428-95,5397,111
– Gross Longs:137,454111,05215,463
– Gross Shorts:49,026206,5918,352
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.711.757.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.40.7-11.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,460 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.449.75.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.844.04.9
– Net Position:-12,72911,3721,357
– Gross Longs:38,39998,43711,012
– Gross Shorts:51,12887,0659,655
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.888.840.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.1-3.43.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 5,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,004 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.940.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.028.38.3
– Net Position:-49,73050,894-1,164
– Gross Longs:111,128167,76033,278
– Gross Shorts:160,858116,86634,442
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.546.746.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.937.5-17.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Jul

Fertilizers carry a hidden cost for soil’s crucial microbes – using less as prices rise might pay off for farms in unexpected ways

By Esther Ndumi Ngumbi, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign 

Across North America, in places such as Illinois, Iowa and Texas, farmers are busy growing the crops the world depends on for food, fuel and fiber.

But as their tractors roll across fields, a pressing concern weighs heavily on many farmers: the rising cost of synthetic fertilizers, widely considered essential for crop production.

After an expensive spring, with the war in Iran restricting fertilizer and petroleum shipments and raising prices, farmers may be wondering whether they can cut back on fertilizer now and in the future to save money.

The answer has a lot to do with a hidden world beneath our feet, where billions of soil-dwelling, beneficial microbes help sustain productive, resilient and healthy crops and agricultural systems.

As a researcher working to uncover the hidden roles of beneficial soil microbes and understand how they improve crop productivity and strengthen plants’ resilience against drought and insect pests, I know that cutting down on fertilizers is not a bad thing. In fact, studies suggest that using less fertilizer can boost this natural workforce.

Plants do not grow alone

Soils hold a vast and extraordinarily diverse hidden world teeming with billions of microbes that are essential for sustaining life on Earth and supporting productive and resilient crops.

Plants including corn, soybeans, wheat and tomatoes form intimate and mutually beneficial relationships with these soil-dwelling microbes. Their partnerships help sustain both plant health and the microbial communities.

A notable group of beneficial soil microbes is arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria. These soilborne microbes can colonize plant roots, living around the roots, on the plant surface or even inside plant tissue.

A microscope image of fungi in and around a plant root
A microscope image using dye shows microbe filaments, known as hyphae, around a plant root, and arbuscular mycorrhizae fungi inside the root.
Rajarshi Rit/The University of Burdwan, CC BY

In exchange for shelter, nutrients and carbon-rich sugars that plants produce through photosynthesis, these microbes offer many benefits to plants. They improve plant health and growth, increase yields and enhance the plant’s water and nutrient uptake. They can also boost plants’ ability to withstand pathogens, plant-eating insects and diseases, and survive drought and flooding.

Research has shown that adding microbes, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, near plant roots can increase plant biomass by nearly 50%. That includes significantly increasing nitrogen absorption by about two-thirds and more than doubling phosphorus uptake, two of the most important nutrients for plant growth.

One analysis found that under drought stress, plants with beneficial microbes in or around their roots had nearly 50% higher growth than those without.

My own team’s research has shown that mycorrhizal fungi can alter chemicals released by plants in ways that are useful for repelling insects while attracting pollinators and insects’ natural enemies. These chemicals can also alert plant neighbors of dangers and threats.

An illustration showing the difference between crops with and without the fungi
Some of the ways arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, often referred to as AM or AMF, help plants thrive.
Catherine N. Jacott, Jeremy D. Murray and Christopher J. Ridout, 2017, CC BY

Soil microbes are also associated with many aspects of soil quality and health. They break down organic matter, cycle nutrients, suppress disease-causing pathogens and detoxify contaminants.

How fertilizers harm the microbe-plant relationship

Synthetic fertilizers have certainly played important roles in food and fiber production and increasing crop yields over the years. However, excessive fertilizer use can quietly harm these beneficial soil microbe communities, in addition to fueling water pollution.

Studies have shown that overfertilizing can weaken the underground partnerships between plants and microbes that are fundamental to helping plants access nutrients and tolerate stress. Too much nitrogen fertilizer can reduce the diversity and abundance of beneficial soil microbes.

Researchers have offered several explanations for why synthetic fertilizers harm soil microbes.

First, adding nutrients reduces the amount of carbon that plants send below ground to microbes. This can lead to the loss of some fungal species or favor microbes that contribute little to plant health.

An animation shows how plants send carbon to microbes in and around their roots.
MRIs and PET scans of corn plant roots over two hours track a short-lived carbon radioisotope. It shows how recently fixed carbon reaches microbes in the root system and surrounding soil. Three different ages of plants are included.
Sina R. Schultes, et al., 2025, CC BY

Second, adding synthetic fertilizers rich in phosphorus or nitrogen can disrupt the harmonious partnership between plants and microbes. That partnership involves a trade system in which plants provide microbes with sugars from photosynthesis while the microbes help plants acquire limited nutrients from the soil. When nutrients are abundant, plants may forgo the partnership. Ultimately, without an active partnership, fewer microbes will grow.

Third, adding synthetic fertilizer makes soil more acidic, which can inhibit arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and mycelial development. Research has shown that shifts in soil pH to higher acidity can reduce the growth of some microbes, undermining plant-microbe partnerships that have evolved over millions of years.

The effects of fertilizers on soils, soil microbial communities and beneficial microbe groups such as mycorrhizal fungi vary and are at times inconsistent. They can be affected by many factors, including agricultural management and farming practices, such as cover cropping or tilling, or the crop species and breeding history.

Fertilizing in economically strategic ways

With fertilizer costs high, I believe farmers, researchers and others involved in food production should use this moment to rethink how crops and soils are nourished.

The answer is not to abandon fertilizers but to find a balance between fertilizer use and nurturing the living soils and the billions of microbial communities that quietly sustain American and global agriculture.

In an era of extreme weather, climate uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and rising fertilizer costs, keeping soil healthy and nurturing the billions of microbes living there is not only necessary but also economically strategic.The Conversation

About the Author:

Esther Ndumi Ngumbi, Assistant Professor, Department of Entomology; African-American Studies, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
24 Jun

How everyone pays the cost for patents on seeds, and private companies get rich from keeping them secret

By Julie Dawson, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Kiki Hubbard, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Paulina Jenney, University of Wisconsin-Madison 

The United States is one of only a handful of countries that allows companies to hold patents on plant varieties. As a result, a small number of corporations can – and do – suppress competition in the seed industry, stifle innovation and turn taxpayer subsidies intended for farmers into corporate profits.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has found that two companies control more than 70% of U.S. corn and soybean seed sales, and the top four cottonseed companies control nearly 94% of that market.

In a May 2026 court filing in a legal dispute between two U.S. seed companies, the Department of Justice said patents on seeds are obstructing competition and research in the agriculture industry.

As researchers who work on plant breeding and seed policy, we have seen how that plays out. When huge companies assert their patents, smaller businesses and public plant breeders who often lack the legal resources to fight back are frequently dissuaded from conducting research and development that might actually not be illegal at all.

And a lack of competition allows dominant companies – not always based in the U.S. – to collect large sums of taxpayer money that Congress allocated in hopes it would help farmers, not shareholders’ and executives’ bottom lines.

Noah Coppess, a farmer in Iowa, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Oct. 28, 2025.

A shift in ownership

For most of human agricultural history, farmers freely saved, exchanged and planted seeds season after season, creating a diversity of crops suited to the places and people who grew them.

While some communities restricted the exchange of seeds for cultural or ceremonial reasons, seeds were broadly understood to be a shared resource. Even as recently as the 1970s, most plant breeding was carried out by public researchers at government stations and universities, while private companies focused on producing and selling those varieties at scale.

That diverse and decentralized system also served as an invisible insurance policy against disease and disaster: If one variety failed, there were plenty of others distinct enough to fill its place.

Beginning in the 20th century, though, governments began to grant companies patents on living organisms, beginning with a genetically engineered bacterium that broke down crude oil. Suddenly, chemical and pharmaceutical companies saw opportunities to earn money by engineering specific traits, such as herbicide tolerance, into key crop plants, including corn, soybeans, cotton and canola, and patenting those varieties.

Then they used those patent rights to prohibit other plant breeders, even university researchers, from conducting research and breeding with their seeds and to forbid farmers from saving their own seeds from one season to the next.

Those steps eliminated seed companies’ two most obvious sources of competition: other developers building on their work and farmers saving seed. The seed companies then had enough market power to set prices so high they took nearly all of farmers’ potential profits, while leaving them just enough of a margin to remain customers.

According to a report from the Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, the price for genetically engineered seeds has more than quintupled since 1990, rising by 463%. But over that same period of time, the price farmers have received for their crops has increased only by 56%.

Subsidies get diverted

When the prices farmers receive for certain crops fall below a certain threshold, or when farmers suffer losses from bad weather or unexpected trade disputes, the Department of Agriculture has a multitude of programs that offer payments to make up the difference.

But that money tends to spend little time in farmers’ pockets.

An August 2025 study shows that when farm subsidies increase, seed companies respond by raising their prices, charging based on what farmers can afford to pay rather than their own cost of producing and marketing the seed. Specifically, for every 1% increase in farm subsidies, seed companies raise their prices by 0.5%.

And when farmers go to sell their crops to grain processors, those companies benefit from being able to purchase commodity grains, such as corn, soybeans and canola, at a predictable price, held low because subsidies help farmers produce an abundant supply at margins that would otherwise drive farms out of business.

Testifying at an October 2025 Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on competition issues in the seed and fertilizer industries, Iowa farmer Noah Coppess put it plainly: “The reality in farming today is we’re price takers rather than price makers. That’s especially true when consolidation limits our options. … I have concerns with our input and equipment supply chains and their ability to manipulate our costs.”

The result is a system in which public money intended for farmers is redistributed to the seed suppliers and commodity purchasers who profit on either side of them.

Limiting research

Dominant seed companies prevent competitors from developing new breeding programs through a complex web of patents and restrictive licensing contracts that make it nearly impossible to acquire enough genetic material to get started.

The patent system is built on the premise that applicants must completely disclose how their inventions were made in order to get protection. This allows the public to understand the scope of the invention, as well as to improve upon it.

Genetic analyses on the protected seeds would be required to understand how a variety was bred and the genetic traits it contains. However, seed companies have also threatened independent researchers with patent-infringement lawsuits. Those threats prevent independent researchers from studying the crops that make up the country’s supply of food, feed, fuel and fiber.

The result is that no one outside of the dominant companies, not even the U.S. government, knows which economically crucial crops, most of which are grown from patented seeds, might be vulnerable to emerging pests and pathogens. For years, plant breeders have been calling for genetic assessments of these seeds and the crops they grow; to date, no such studies have been conducted.

A shift in direction

But the May 2026 Justice Department court filing saying seed patents are blocking agricultural competition and research indicates the tide may be turning.

In 2023, multinational agrochemical company Corteva sued a genetic engineering startup, Inari, for infringing its patents by, among other things, obtaining samples of Corteva’s patented seeds from a public repository and analyzing their genetic makeup.

Though the Justice Department didn’t weigh in favor of either company, its court filing said companies should not be able to restrict the public from sequencing genetic material that was deposited as part of the process of securing patent protection.

Notably, the department’s court filing came from the Antitrust Division rather than the Civil Division, which usually handles intellectual property issues. That difference suggests that the government sees this extension of patent rights as an illegitimate way for a company to exclude other companies from competing.

The case is still winding its way through the legal process. But if the judge agrees, his decision could be consequential. For starters, competitors could begin to understand the strengths and weaknesses in seed varieties on the market and find ways to build on that innovation, which is precisely the type of activity the patent system was designed to encourage.

More competition in the market could provide an important check on seed prices, reducing the burden on American farmers and, thereby, taxpayers. Finally, researchers could conduct the studies that are needed to begin rebuilding the kind of genetic knowledge that was, for most of human history, held in common – an insurance policy in the best interest of us all.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Julie Dawson, Professor of Plant and Agroecosystem Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Kiki Hubbard, Researcher, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Paulina Jenney, Research Coordinator, Urban and Regional Food System Program, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
17 Jun

Soaring US beef prices likely to rise further thanks to trade tensions and disease outbreaks

By Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee and Charles Martinez

It’s summer grilling season, but for many Americans, surging prices mean beef is no longer what’s for dinner.

The cost of beef, having spiked since early 2025, is coming under even more pressure. The most recent is the screwworm outbreak that hit cattle in Mexico and has now spread to the United States, where the cattle herd has already fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s, due in part to drought.

Meanwhile, potential trade disruptions loom. Just before U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators began meeting on June 16-17, 2026, to discuss the long-standing deal binding North America, President Donald Trump warned that Washington may not renew the agreement, which was negotiated during his first term, and instead potentially withdraw from it altogether.

As international trade and livestock economists, we have studied how North American trade has deeply integrated cattle and beef markets, influencing production, prices and the movement of animals and meat products across Canada, Mexico and the United States. And because beef is both a top agricultural import and export for the U.S., the industry is especially vulnerable to any disruptions to the existing trade deal. As one example, the cost of ground beef is up by more than 20% just since January 2025.

Current trade uncertainty, reflecting Trump’s more fragmented, bilateral approach to negotiations, couldn’t come at a worse moment for inflation-weary consumers. The growing turmoil in the North American beef market risks further tightening supplies and raising prices.

A harmonized market

Cross-border trade was anchored in 1994 by the North American Free Trade Agreement, which established free trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. It remained in place until Trump replaced it with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which came into force in 2020. Unlike NAFTA, that deal must be jointly reviewed every six years and includes a 16‑year sunset clause. Beef, like other goods covered by the agreement, was exempted from the tariffs that Trump imposed on those trading partners in 2025.

Formally, all three countries must decide by July 1, 2026, whether to extend the deal for another 16 years or let it revert to a series of annual reviews until the full expiration in 2036. But Canada, whose relationship with Trump is especially fraught, is so far sitting out the talks. Instead, U.S. and Mexican negotiators are meeting by themselves and have now turned to agriculture, with beef as one of the key sectors.

Beef prices, production decisions and supply are closely tied together across the three countries, effectively creating a single North American beef market. Cattle and beef products move seamlessly across borders, thanks to the lower tariffs and harmonized regulations that resulted from the 1994 and 2020 trade deals. The U.S. imports young “feeder” cattle to be fattened for slaughter from Mexico, as well as mature, or “fed,” cattle ready for slaughter from Canada, both of which ultimately go to U.S. packing plants. To help meet consumer demand in Mexico, the U.S. also exports beef products and fed cattle.

This integration is also important for maintaining the United States’ own beef supply. Almost all U.S. cattle imports are from Mexico and Canada, amounting to around 2.1 million head in 2024, valued at more than US$3 billion. That number may look small against the total number slaughtered in the U.S. that year – around 32 million head – but having a steady flow into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada helps stabilize supplies and manage prices.

The importance of that relationship became clear in 2025, when live cattle imports plunged by more than 50%. That decrease continued into 2026, as young cattle imports from Mexico collapsed by more than 80% due to the screwworm outbreak. The parasite has now been discovered in cattle in south Texas and New Mexico, which prompted Canada to slap bans on live cattle from the region.

Where’s the beef?

The current trade talks go beyond the beef sector, and agriculture more broadly, to encompass issues such as rules of origin, labor and environmental standards, digital trade and investment provisions that shape North American supply chains. At the same time, U.S. trade negotiators are bringing the Trump administration’s more protectionist and transactional approach to the table.

Beef is among the vital trade relationships at stake if negotiators fail to conclude the review. In 2025, Mexico was the third-largest market for U.S. beef exports, exceeding $1.3 billion, while Canada was the fourth-largest market at $874 million. On the flip side, Canada and Mexico ranked second and third, respectively, among countries exporting beef to the U.S., with more than $5 billion combined.

Trump’s threat notwithstanding, the U.S. has a lot to lose if it quits the 2020 deal altogether. Since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs earlier this year, the administration has a stronger incentive to keep its other tools in trade talks. And U.S. farm groups, a key Trump constituency, are strongly lobbying the Trump administration to keep the deal.

If the U.S. exits the pact, North American trade would likely revert to more basic international rules, which would free Mexico and Canada to impose their own tariffs, raising costs for producers, processors and, ultimately, consumers.

The two trading partners would also have a freer hand with nontariff barriers, such as requiring stricter inspections, more paperwork and potential quotas on U.S. exports, all of which could slow down trade. Because cattle often cross borders multiple times during production, even small delays can create significant disruptions.

The result would likely be less efficient supply chains, fewer imported cattle, tighter U.S. supply and, in the end, higher prices. And some U.S. ranchers are already bracing for a worst-case scenario, like what soybean farmers have already seen when a key export market disappears.

“We can’t lose demand for our products,” one rancher told us. “Look what happened with soybeans last year when China quit buying.”The Conversation

About the Authors:

Andrew Muhammad, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Blasingame Chair of Excellence, University of Tennessee and Charles Martinez, Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
14 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar with a small increase by 2,105 weekly contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-96,383 contracts), Soybean Meal (-70,583 contracts), Soybeans (-37,321 contracts), Soybean Oil (-26,485 contracts),  Wheat (-17,091 contracts), Cotton (-9,249 contracts), Coffee (-7,212 contracts), Cocoa (-6,185 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,067 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,036 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa and Coffee lead Soft Commodities price performance

Leading the Soft Commodities price gains this week was Cocoa, which rose by almost 4% with a 3.79% gain. Coffee came in second with a 2.90% rise on the week. Wheat was also up by over 2% with a 2.26% increase.

On the downside, Live Cattle was virtually unchanged with a -0.14% dip. Cotton was lower by -0.50%, Soybeans fell by -0.62%, followed by Corn, which declined by -0.96%. Lean Hogs was next with a -1.37% decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which dropped over 2% by -2.08%.

Soybean Oil was down by -2.41%. And Sugar was the biggest decliner with a -2.97% drop.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Soybean Oil

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (77 percent), Soybean Meal (70 percent) and Live Cattle (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (29 percent) and the Coffee (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.4 percent)
Sugar (28.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.5 percent)
Coffee (29.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.6 percent)
Soybeans (77.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (79.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (90.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (69.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.6 percent)
Live Cattle (59.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.5 percent)
Cotton (84.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (89.8 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (8 percent) and Cocoa (0.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Wheat (-49 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-40 percent), Corn (-32 percent) and Soybean Meal (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-32.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.7 percent)
Sugar (7.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (-18.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-9.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-40.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-42.1 percent)
Cotton (-3.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.6 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.9 percent)
Wheat (-49.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -96,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,942 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.044.47.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.647.210.0
– Net Position:103,559-53,122-50,437
– Gross Longs:477,576848,686141,418
– Gross Shorts:374,017901,808191,855
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.349.162.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.334.76.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,163 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.350.98.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.740.38.3
– Net Position:-105,058106,415-1,357
– Gross Longs:225,149513,54982,833
– Gross Shorts:330,207407,13484,190
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.972.430.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.6-5.0-12.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,388 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.141.44.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.244.14.3
– Net Position:6,176-5,785-391
– Gross Longs:51,44088,4528,747
– Gross Shorts:45,26494,2379,138
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.472.68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.918.7-6.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 150,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -37,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,784 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.348.84.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.560.87.3
– Net Position:150,463-122,120-28,343
– Gross Longs:267,406495,97945,342
– Gross Shorts:116,943618,09973,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.024.724.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.1-1.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 121,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -26,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,439 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.145.95.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.465.54.0
– Net Position:121,954-135,10213,148
– Gross Longs:186,964316,76340,539
– Gross Shorts:65,010451,86527,391
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.918.683.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.118.69.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 85,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -70,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,187 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.948.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.966.64.5
– Net Position:85,604-109,77024,166
– Gross Longs:164,267297,19751,481
– Gross Shorts:78,663406,96727,315
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.929.878.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.320.439.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,522 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.231.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.253.812.1
– Net Position:82,486-71,638-10,848
– Gross Longs:137,03199,06427,433
– Gross Shorts:54,545170,70238,281
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.233.260.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.510.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,054 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.841.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.328.47.9
– Net Position:-42,12141,690431
– Gross Longs:71,117130,27425,107
– Gross Shorts:113,23888,58424,676
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.092.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.138.930.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -9,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,206 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.937.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.562.62.9
– Net Position:75,957-81,9175,960
– Gross Longs:126,353121,66115,510
– Gross Shorts:50,396203,5789,550
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.319.050.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.06.0-34.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,312 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.453.65.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.941.65.8
– Net Position:-23,49724,426-929
– Gross Longs:39,354108,96510,789
– Gross Shorts:62,85184,53911,718
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.1100.018.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.9-22.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -57,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,762 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.540.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.228.27.6
– Net Position:-57,85356,1921,661
– Gross Longs:115,711184,41036,405
– Gross Shorts:173,564128,21834,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.651.362.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-49.451.3-2.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
31 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Coffee

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Coffee

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with a gain for the softs markets this week was Coffee with a small increase by 671 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-56,100 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-16,534 contracts), Lean Hogs (-16,412 contracts), Wheat (-9,721 contracts) and Soybeans (-7,563 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,147 contracts), Cotton (-4,796 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,053 contracts), Sugar (-841 contracts) and with Cocoa (-752 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities price performance was led by Soybean Oil and Cocoa

The past five days price performances for the Soft Commodities markets were led by Soybean Oil, which rose by 3.83% for the week, and was followed up by Cocoa, which rose by 3.56% on the week. These were the only two markets that had higher five-day performances.

On the downside, Live Cattle was lower by -0.23%, followed by Lean Hogs which saw a dip by -0.52%. Next, Soybean Oil was lower by -0.63%, while Soybeans was close behind with a -0.81% decline.

Cotton saw lower levels by -1.64% on the week, while Coffee was down by over -2.5% with a -2.74% decrease. Corn dropped by more than -3% with a -3.56% shortfall, followed by Wheat, which decreased by -4.73% on the week.

Finally, Sugar was the biggest decliner on the week with a -5.57% drop.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Wheat

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (98 percent) and Wheat (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (91 percent), Soybeans (89 percent) and Soybean Oil (88 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (7 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (34 percent) and the Coffee (40 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (77.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (84.9 percent)
Sugar (33.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.9 percent)
Coffee (39.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (39.2 percent)
Soybeans (89.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (90.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (87.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (63.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (7.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (19.2 percent)
Cotton (91.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (94.1 percent)
Cocoa (6.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.3 percent)
Wheat (91.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (99.5 percent)

Sugar & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (11 percent) and Cotton (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (7 percent), Wheat (7 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-19 percent), Coffee (-6 percent) and Soybean Oil (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (7.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.2 percent)
Sugar (10.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.6 percent)
Coffee (-6.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-45.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-39.2 percent)
Cotton (10.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.5 percent)
Cocoa (5.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.9 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 302,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -56,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 358,102 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.041.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.853.910.9
– Net Position:302,002-231,519-70,483
– Gross Longs:521,725773,197133,362
– Gross Shorts:219,7231,004,716203,845
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.322.145.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-4.4-20.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,909 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.750.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.942.68.1
– Net Position:-79,75078,2921,458
– Gross Longs:238,727490,87779,967
– Gross Shorts:318,477412,58578,509
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.867.533.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-9.6-0.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,960 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.738.64.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.147.24.1
– Net Position:16,631-16,766135
– Gross Longs:53,57474,6697,985
– Gross Shorts:36,94391,4357,850
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.962.017.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.25.017.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 204,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 212,238 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.847.25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.864.47.7
– Net Position:204,675-176,610-28,065
– Gross Longs:285,330484,90451,229
– Gross Shorts:80,655661,51479,294
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.112.225.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-0.82.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -16,534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,107 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.245.75.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.567.43.9
– Net Position:141,573-155,54513,972
– Gross Longs:202,640328,33741,978
– Gross Shorts:61,067483,88228,006
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.810.787.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.20.816.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 154,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,741 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.140.68.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.669.24.4
– Net Position:154,594-180,95826,364
– Gross Longs:202,878256,64354,085
– Gross Shorts:48,284437,60127,721
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.91.190.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-3.130.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,889 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.430.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.651.911.4
– Net Position:86,836-75,333-11,503
– Gross Longs:151,778106,19328,220
– Gross Shorts:64,942181,52639,723
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.530.557.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.619.110.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -16,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,197 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.841.07.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.033.27.9
– Net Position:-23,60925,553-1,944
– Gross Longs:80,782133,80223,805
– Gross Shorts:104,391108,24925,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.293.275.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.143.333.6

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,470 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.034.75.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.563.92.8
– Net Position:87,674-96,7519,077
– Gross Longs:135,684114,88418,439
– Gross Shorts:48,010211,6359,362
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.211.068.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-8.1-16.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,488 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.352.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.344.54.7
– Net Position:-16,24015,291949
– Gross Longs:41,108105,54410,501
– Gross Shorts:57,34890,2539,552
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.936.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-5.6-0.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -9,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 263 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.733.47.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.631.97.3
– Net Position:-9,4587,5301,928
– Gross Longs:144,186162,35737,621
– Gross Shorts:153,644154,82735,693
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.39.163.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-7.6-1.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
24 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,509 contracts) with Wheat (14,684 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,088 contracts) and Soybean Oil (5 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,435 contracts) with Soybeans (-11,764 contracts), Cotton (-9,919 contracts), Coffee (-5,099 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,863 contracts), Cocoa (-2,507 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders led by Coffee

Coffee led the Soft Commodities price performances this week in an overall down week for most of the Soft Commodities markets. Coffee rose by over 2% with a 2.14% gain and was followed by Soybeans, which was virtually unchanged but had a 0.21% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Oil dipped by -0.67%, followed by Sugar, which was lower by -0.68%, and by Corn, which declined by -0.91%.

Next, Soybean Oil fell by more than -2% with a -2.21% decline, followed by Wheat, which fell by -2.40%, and Lean Hogs, which dropped by -2.85%. Cocoa was lower by over -5% with a -5.26% shortfall, while Cotton was lower by -5.76% over the past five days.

The biggest negative gainer on the week was Live Cattle, which dropped by almost 7% with a -6.94% decrease for the past 5 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Wheat

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Wheat (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (94 percent), Cotton (94 percent) and Soybeans (91 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Lean Hogs (21 percent), Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (84.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.4 percent)
Sugar (33.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.3 percent)
Coffee (39.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.3 percent)
Soybeans (90.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (93.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (71.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (94.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (100.0 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (99.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (87.2 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Corn (9 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-13 percent), Coffee (-6 percent) and Sugar (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (-1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.0 percent)
Cotton (18.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.1 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.7 percent)
Wheat (15.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 358,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 383,537 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.240.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.255.510.6
– Net Position:358,102-288,625-69,477
– Gross Longs:569,689757,342129,874
– Gross Shorts:211,5871,045,967199,351
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.913.445.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-8.4-9.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 18,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,418 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.750.28.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.942.88.1
– Net Position:-78,90971,4457,464
– Gross Longs:240,256487,11086,264
– Gross Shorts:319,165415,66578,800
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.966.341.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.60.74.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,059 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.338.64.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.946.74.6
– Net Position:15,960-15,381-579
– Gross Longs:53,79973,3468,137
– Gross Shorts:37,83988,7278,716
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.263.35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.86.1-9.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,002 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.246.95.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.564.87.9
– Net Position:212,238-183,266-28,972
– Gross Longs:288,551479,74352,144
– Gross Shorts:76,313663,00981,116
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.710.722.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.8-1.47.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 5 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,102 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.344.76.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.268.94.0
– Net Position:158,107-172,75614,649
– Gross Longs:209,661320,35343,107
– Gross Shorts:51,554493,10928,458
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.091.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-3.3-6.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 159,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 11,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,653 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.539.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.869.14.4
– Net Position:159,741-183,76224,021
– Gross Longs:208,033245,00651,157
– Gross Shorts:48,292428,76827,136
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.077.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.4-18.821.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,505 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.928.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.050.211.7
– Net Position:90,889-78,298-12,591
– Gross Longs:156,500104,74729,883
– Gross Shorts:65,611183,04542,474
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.526.954.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.011.512.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -4,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,334 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.339.87.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.536.78.0
– Net Position:-7,19710,228-3,031
– Gross Longs:89,006129,86223,175
– Gross Shorts:96,203119,63426,206
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.781.562.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.538.520.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -9,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,389 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.733.75.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.665.12.5
– Net Position:92,470-103,54511,075
– Gross Longs:137,278110,94719,326
– Gross Shorts:44,808214,4928,251
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.17.379.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.5-18.214.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,981 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.752.65.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.745.05.2
– Net Position:-15,48814,704784
– Gross Longs:40,134101,84910,773
– Gross Shorts:55,62287,1459,989
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.393.434.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-6.68.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,421 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.233.17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.133.57.2
– Net Position:263-1,9921,729
– Gross Longs:143,267157,23336,126
– Gross Shorts:143,004159,22534,397
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.50.962.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.9-17.03.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
10 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (92,644 contracts) with Sugar (48,432 contracts), Soybeans (38,259 contracts), Cotton (19,741 contracts), Cocoa (3,409 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,381 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-17,534 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-9,721 contracts), Soybean Meal (-8,387 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,925 contracts) and Coffee (2,599 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculator Bets surge higher for 3rd Week to 1-Year High

Highlighting the Soft Commodities market this week is Corn, which has been on a spectacular run in speculator positioning. This week, Corn speculator bets jumped by over 92,000 contracts and rose for a third consecutive week. The Corn speculator position has now increased in eight out of the last 11 weeks and has added a whopping +441,219 contracts to its overall standing in just those 11 weeks. This recent climb higher has seen the overall speculator position from a total of -7,835 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s net speculator standing of 433,384 net contracts — marking the highest level for Corn bets in over a year.

Corn’s futures price has been on a steady uptrend since a recent bottom in August of 2025. Since then, the Corn price has been up by roughly 25% and is trading right below its 200-weekly moving average. Corn’s overall price is still down by roughly 70% since 2022, when the height of the Russian-Ukraine War saw the Corn price go parabolic and reach its highest level in 10 years.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities price performances this week.

Leading the price performances for the Soft Commodities on the week was Cocoa, which had a very strong week this week and was only one of two Soft Commodities markets that saw gaining returns this week. Cocoa jumped by 17.87% over the past five days and gained for a third consecutive week. Cocoa’s overall price over the past few years has taken a sharp fall after an incredible run-up that brought the Cocoa future prices over 12,000 in late 2024. Currently, Cocoa’s price has fallen by over 60% since that timeframe but has been rebounding since March.

Next up, Cotton was the only other gainer on the week with a 0.76% gain. On the downside, Soybeans dipped by a virtually unchanged amount of -0.14%, followed by Soybean Meal, which also dipped by -0.16%. Wheat fell by over a percent with a -1.35% decline, followed by Live Cattle, which dipped by -1.51%, while Soybean Oil fell by a similar -1.54%. Corn was next up and fell lower this week with -1.72%. Sugar followed suit with a -1.74% decline, while Lean Hogs dropped by -2.62% on the week. Coffee was the biggest negative returner this week with a -4.26% shortfall.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Cotton

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (99 percent) and Cotton (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (95 percent), Corn (95 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Lean Hogs (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (95.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (82.6 percent)
Sugar (30.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (50.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (95.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (86.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (76.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.5 percent)
Cotton (99.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (87.3 percent)
Cocoa (3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (85.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (100.0 percent)

Cotton, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (47 percent), Soybean Oil (21 percent) and Live Cattle (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent) and Soybeans (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-0.1 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.9 percent)
Sugar (0.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.1 percent)
Coffee (2.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.5 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.0 percent)
Live Cattle (21.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.6 percent)
Cotton (46.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-5.2 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 433,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 92,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,740 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.539.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.858.710.4
– Net Position:433,384-368,848-64,536
– Gross Longs:601,877752,467133,696
– Gross Shorts:168,4931,121,315198,232
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.21.331.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-8.3-4.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 48,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,951 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.549.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.340.97.7
– Net Position:-95,51984,97410,545
– Gross Longs:247,159481,68685,327
– Gross Shorts:342,678396,71274,782
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.069.345.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.5-11.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,026 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.635.44.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.951.34.3
– Net Position:27,625-28,056431
– Gross Longs:55,70362,2597,936
– Gross Shorts:28,07890,3157,505
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.951.022.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.7-7.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 232,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 38,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,939 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.243.45.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.364.48.3
– Net Position:232,198-204,545-27,653
– Gross Longs:303,880423,32253,507
– Gross Shorts:71,682627,86781,160
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.15.825.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-5.117.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 168,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,812 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.340.95.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.466.83.9
– Net Position:168,887-182,70613,819
– Gross Longs:220,821288,80941,182
– Gross Shorts:51,934471,51527,363
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.80.287.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-20.22.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 134,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,101 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.041.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.768.94.5
– Net Position:134,714-157,28922,575
– Gross Longs:190,466239,91048,705
– Gross Shorts:55,752397,19926,130
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.76.770.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-2.7-6.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 103,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,338 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.928.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.152.711.7
– Net Position:103,719-89,036-14,683
– Gross Longs:165,391100,64627,527
– Gross Shorts:61,672189,68242,210
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.213.946.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.4-24.0-6.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -9,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,172 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.139.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.140.28.4
– Net Position:6,451-2,889-3,562
– Gross Longs:89,062124,19122,980
– Gross Shorts:82,611127,08026,542
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.571.657.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.928.427.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 100,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 19,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,941 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.330.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.064.92.5
– Net Position:100,682-114,93114,249
– Gross Longs:144,088100,80522,683
– Gross Shorts:43,406215,7368,434
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.7-46.943.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,643 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.251.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.342.14.7
– Net Position:-20,23418,2252,009
– Gross Longs:46,562102,50611,501
– Gross Shorts:66,79684,2819,492
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.096.546.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.1-1.416.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 866 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.731.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.529.76.8
– Net Position:-16,6688,4258,243
– Gross Longs:128,830137,09837,730
– Gross Shorts:145,498128,67329,487
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.39.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-6.943.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: SoyOil lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows each market's current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows each market’s current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Cocoa


The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (22,135 contracts) with Corn (14,851 contracts), Cotton (12,817 contracts), Soybeans (9,424 contracts), Cocoa (3,171 contracts) and Live Cattle (-3,115 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-20,872 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,760 contracts), Lean Hogs (-13,831 contracts), Wheat (-7,171 contracts) and with Coffee (-3,530 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar, Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodities price performance

The market’s leading price performance this week was by Sugar which rose by 5.70% over the past five days. This was followed by Soybean Oil, which rose by a strong 4.21%. Cocoa comes in next with a 4.15% gain on the week and Coffee ended up higher by 3.99%. Next up, Corn was up by roughly 3% with a 2.94% gain, followed by Wheat, which rose by 1.36%. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs each advanced by 0.84%, respectively, while Cotton edged up by just 0.04% to round out the gainers on the week.

On the downside, Soybeans dipped by -0.44% and was followed by Soybean Meal, which had the biggest negative return on the week with a -1.82% retreat.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (90 percent), Cotton (88 percent) and Wheat (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (43 percent) and the Coffee (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (70.1 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (22.4 percent)
Coffee (42.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (90.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (91.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (93.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (79.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.2 percent)
Cotton (88.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.6 percent)
Cocoa (2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (82.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (88.5 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (21 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-4 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Corn (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (10.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (4.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.2 percent)
Live Cattle (20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.5 percent)
Cotton (61.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.3 percent)
Cocoa (1.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.3 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 263,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,881 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.240.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.852.310.8
– Net Position:263,732-208,245-55,487
– Gross Longs:480,510749,591142,181
– Gross Shorts:216,778957,836197,668
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.125.641.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.80.1-8.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -155,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -20,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,969 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.754.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.739.28.8
– Net Position:-155,841152,8432,998
– Gross Longs:193,071535,84589,527
– Gross Shorts:348,912383,00286,529
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.481.135.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-9.01.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,817 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.338.04.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.449.44.6
– Net Position:19,287-18,586-701
– Gross Longs:50,92761,9356,764
– Gross Shorts:31,64080,5217,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.560.23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-3.2-16.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 211,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 9,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,722 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.645.05.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.563.38.3
– Net Position:211,146-182,906-28,240
– Gross Longs:286,201450,78654,457
– Gross Shorts:75,055633,69282,697
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.510.723.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.22.920.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 169,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 22,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,946 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.042.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.466.83.7
– Net Position:169,081-181,38012,299
– Gross Longs:224,348317,53740,242
– Gross Shorts:55,267498,91727,943
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.079.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.5-25.9-4.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 136,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -15,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,215 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.244.57.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.170.24.2
– Net Position:136,455-159,01922,564
– Gross Longs:186,789275,40248,845
– Gross Shorts:50,334434,42126,281
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.46.070.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-16.712.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,588 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.228.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.953.912.9
– Net Position:102,473-86,112-16,361
– Gross Longs:156,52096,44627,472
– Gross Shorts:54,047182,55843,833
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.017.440.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-21.9-10.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -13,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,052 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.837.06.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.043.48.3
– Net Position:24,221-19,752-4,469
– Gross Longs:98,890115,31921,270
– Gross Shorts:74,669135,07125,739
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.358.751.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.835.032.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 12,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,750 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.332.96.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.361.82.5
– Net Position:82,567-95,14312,576
– Gross Longs:136,259108,50920,884
– Gross Shorts:53,692203,6528,308
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.29.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:61.7-62.663.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,594 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.252.15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.242.94.9
– Net Position:-19,42317,8201,603
– Gross Longs:43,185101,34711,115
– Gross Shorts:62,60883,5279,512
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.996.242.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.3-1.1-1.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,366 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.834.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.428.97.0
– Net Position:-25,53723,9851,552
– Gross Longs:121,024154,80332,992
– Gross Shorts:146,561130,81831,440
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.115.765.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-5.211.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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