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Coffee crops are dying from a fungus with species-jumping genes – researchers are ‘resurrecting’ their genomes to understand how and why

By Lily Peck, University of California, Los Angeles

For anyone who relies on coffee to start their day, coffee wilt disease may be the most important disease you’ve never heard of. This fungal disease has repeatedly reshaped the global coffee supply over the past century, with consequences that reach from African farms to cafe counters worldwide.

Infection with the fungus Fusarium xylarioides results in a characteristic “wilt” in coffee plants by blocking and reducing the plant’s ability to transport water. This blockage eventually kills the plant.

Some of the most destructive plant pathogens in the world infect their hosts in this way. Since the 1990s, outbreaks of coffee wilt have cost over US$1 billion, forced countless farms to close and caused dramatic drops in national coffee production. In Uganda, one of Africa’s largest producers, coffee production did not recover to pre-outbreak levels until 2020, decades after coffee wilt was first detected there. And in 2023, researchers found evidence that coffee wilt disease had resurfaced across all coffee-producing regions of Ivory Coast.

Studying the genetics of plant pathogens is crucial to understanding why this disease continues to return and how to prevent another major outbreak.

Rise and fall of coffee wilt disease in Africa

While early outbreaks of coffee wilt disease affected a wide range of coffee types, later epidemics primarily affected the two coffee species dominating global markets today: arabica and robusta.

First identified in 1927, coffee wilt disease decimated several varieties of coffee grown in western and central Africa. Although farmers combated the fungus with a shift to supposedly resistant robusta crops in the 1950s, the reprieve was short-lived.

The disease reemerged in the 1970s on robusta coffee, spreading through eastern and central Africa. By the mid-1990s, yields had collapsed and coffee production could not recover in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Separately, researchers identified the disease on arabica coffee in Ethiopia in the 1950s and watched it become widespread by the 1970s

Two side-by-side maps of Africa with several regions highlighted to indicate coffee wilt disease outbreaks — Coffee wilt disease has spread widely in Africa. The first outbreak before the 1950s affected mainly central and western Africa (left map) while the second outbreak originated in central Africa and spread east (right map). Affected countries are colored by the decade the disease was first detected.
Peck et al 2023/Plant Pathology, CC BY-SA

Although coffee wilt disease is currently endemic at low and manageable levels across eastern and central Africa, any future resurgence of the disease could be catastrophic for African coffee production. Coffee wilt also poses a threat to producers in Asia and the Americas.

New types of disease emerge

Coffee wilt disease evolved alongside coffee itself. Over the past century, it has repeatedly reemerged, attacking different types of coffee each time. But did these shifts reflect the rapid evolution of new types of disease, or something else entirely?

Fungal disease has devastated plants for millennia, with the earliest records of outbreaks dating from the biblical plagues. Like humans, plants have an immune system that protects them against attacks from pathogens like fungi.

While most fungal attempts at infection fail, a small number do succeed thanks to the constant evolutionary pressure on pathogens to overcome host plant defenses. In this evolutionary arms race, pathogens and hosts continuously adapt to each other by genetically changing their DNA. Boom and bust cycles of disease occur as one gains advantage over the other.

The rise of modern agriculture has led to widespread monocultures of genetically uniform crops. While monocultures have significantly boosted food production, they have also contributed to environmental degradation and increased plant vulnerability to disease.

Crop breeders have attempted to protect monocultures by introducing disease resistance genes, with farms widely applying fungicides and other environmentally damaging products. But these relatively weak protections for hundreds of acres of identical plants have resulted in outbreaks decimating crops that people depend on.

It’s likely that modern agriculture’s reliance on monocultures has enabled and accelerated the evolution of new types of pathogen capable of overcoming resistance in plants. As a result, crops become more susceptible to disease outbreaks.

Resurrecting fungal strains

Understanding the lessons of the past is essential to avoiding future plant pandemics. But this can be challenging, because the specific pathogen strains that caused previous disease outbreaks may no longer exist in nature or may have changed substantially.

In my research on the evolutionary arms race between host and pathogen in coffee wilt disease, I sought to address these problems by “resurrecting” historical strains of the fungus that causes the disease, Fusarium xylarioides. Researchers know little about why the earlier and later outbreaks targeted different types of coffee, so I explored the genetic changes in F. xylarioides that underlie this narrowing of its hosts.

I reconstructed historical genetic changes in the major coffee wilt disease outbreaks over the past seven decades by using strains from a fungus library – culture collections that preserve living fungi. These libraries store long-term living data and reflect the fungal genetic diversity present at the time of collection.

Microscopy image of blue fuzzy sphere with long extensions — *Gibberella (Fusarium) xylarioides*, with arrow pointing to its spore-containing sac.
Julie Flood

Whether a pathogen takes the upper hand in the evolutionary arms race depends on its ability to generate new types of genes. It can do so either by changing and rearranging its DNA sequence or by moving DNA sequences between organisms in a process called horizontal gene transfer. These mechanisms can create new effector genes that enable pathogens to infect and colonize a host plant.

Initially, I sequenced six whole genomes of strains involved in outbreaks before the 1970s as well as later outbreaks that specifically targeted arabica or robusta coffee plants. I found that strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica or robusta genetically differed from each other, with most of these differences inherited from parent to offspring. This process is called vertical inheritance.

Genes that jump between species

However, I also found that several regions of the F. xylarioides genome were potentially acquired horizontally from F. oxysporum, a global plant pathogen that infects over 120 crops, including bananas and tomatoes. These included different regions of the genome across strains specific to arabica and robusta coffee.

But did these changes introduce new effector genes in the F. xylarioides strains that infect arabica and robusta coffee plants specifically? To answer this question, I first sequenced and assembled the first F. xylarioides reference genome, stitching together long stretches of DNA. I then sequenced and compared this reference genome to the whole genomes of three more pre-1970s F. xylarioides strains and 10 additional historical Fusarium strains found on or around diseased coffee bushes, as well as F. xylarioides strains from infected arabica coffee seedlings.

I found substantial evidence for horizontal transfer of disease-causing genes between species of Fusarium. This includes the presence of giant genetic components called Starships in Fusarium. These so-called jumping genes carry their own molecular machinery, allowing them to move around or between genomes. Genes involved in adaptation, such as those linked to virulence, metabolism or host interaction, also move with them. Scientists think Starships may potentially enable fungi to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

I found that large and highly similar genetic regions, including Starships and active effector genes involved in disease, had moved from F. oxysporum to F. xylarioides. Importantly, different genetic regions were present across strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica and robusta, but they were absent from other related Fusarium species. This suggests that these genes were gained from F. oxysporum.

Arming farmers with knowledge

Today, a third of all global crop yields are lost to pest and disease. Reconciling the tension between agricultural productivity and environmental protection is important to balance humanity’s needs for the future. Central to this challenge is reducing the spread of disease and new outbreaks.

On the flip side to monocultures, many plant species surrounding and within small and family-run coffee farms in sub-Saharan Africa may act as disease reservoirs, where fungi pathogens can lurk. These include banana trees and Solanum weeds in the tomato family that are susceptible to fungal infection.

Human farming practices may have inadvertently created an artificial niche for these fungi, with coffee bushes brought into widespread contact with banana plants and Solanum weeds. If fungi in the same genus can frequently exchange genetic material, it could accelerate the ability of plant pathogens to adapt to new hosts.

Testing noncoffee plants for F. xylarioides infection could reveal alternative plant species where different Fusarium fungi come into contact and exchange genetic material. This matters because across sub-Saharan Africa, coffee plants often share fields with banana trees and weeds. If these neighboring plants can harbor fungi that act as new sources of genetic variation, they may help fuel new disease strains.

Identifying the plants that can act as hosts to fungi could give farmers practical options to reduce coffee plants’ risk of disease, from targeted weed management to avoiding the planting of vulnerable crops side by side.

About the Author:

Lily Peck, Postdoctoral Scholar in Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

21 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (45,457 contracts) with Wheat (16,200 contracts), Corn (10,495 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,979 contracts) and Cocoa (1,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-18,191 contracts), Lean Hogs (-15,873 contracts), Cotton (-4,407 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,306 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,071 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Price performance leaders were Wheat and Soybean Oil this week. Wheat was the highest riser in the past five days with a 3.89% gain and Soybean Oil was higher by 3.25% in the same period.

Lean Hogs rose by 2.58%, Cotton was higher by 2.35%, and Sugar also got a boost by over 2% on the week. Live Cattle rose by approximately 1% and Soybean Meal saw a gain of 0.62%. Soybeans and Corn were virtually unchanged on the week.

Leading the declines on the week was Cocoa, which dropped sharply by approximately -15% and followed by Coffee which was also lower by -4.87%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (86 percent), Lean Hogs (74 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Wheat (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (35.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.7 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.4 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybeans (86.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (76.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.2 percent)
Live Cattle (68.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (85.3 percent)
Cotton (5.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (55.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (60 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (19 percent), Lean Hogs (18 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Coffee (-18 percent) and Cotton (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Coffee (-17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-10.7 percent)
Soybeans (19.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (10.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-19.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.6 percent)
Wheat (29.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	46.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	45.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-7,835	25,990	-18,155
– Gross Longs:	336,717	831,608	146,498
– Gross Shorts:	344,552	805,618	164,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	61.1	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.3	0.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -253,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	56.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	32.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-253,592	265,824	-12,232
– Gross Longs:	171,981	625,812	82,477
– Gross Shorts:	425,573	359,988	94,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-7.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	42.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	50.0	5.0
– Net Position:	12,860	-12,616	-244
– Gross Longs:	47,502	65,722	7,517
– Gross Shorts:	34,642	78,338	7,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	66.0	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.4	-22.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 191,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	47.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	63.1	8.5
– Net Position:	191,791	-157,771	-34,020
– Gross Longs:	274,388	463,652	49,618
– Gross Shorts:	82,597	621,423	83,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	16.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-15.4	-54.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	47.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	55.8	3.7
– Net Position:	51,971	-62,880	10,909
– Gross Longs:	155,039	335,704	37,409
– Gross Shorts:	103,068	398,584	26,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	25.8	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.6	-62.7	67.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	60.7	5.5
– Net Position:	18,346	-36,473	18,127
– Gross Longs:	109,382	283,091	47,273
– Gross Shorts:	91,036	319,564	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.3	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.4	37.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 91,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	31.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	54.7	12.3
– Net Position:	91,735	-78,353	-13,382
– Gross Longs:	150,433	102,308	27,276
– Gross Shorts:	58,698	180,661	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	26.8	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	67,022	-57,027	-9,995
– Gross Longs:	147,998	119,956	20,920
– Gross Shorts:	80,976	176,983	30,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	30.3	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.8	-21.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	30.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,733	54,389	1,344
– Gross Longs:	99,583	156,452	15,630
– Gross Shorts:	155,316	102,063	14,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	92.3	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-17,618	17,159	459
– Gross Longs:	29,310	74,716	11,431
– Gross Shorts:	46,928	57,557	10,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.6	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.9	10.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	35.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	23.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-55,058	58,384	-3,326
– Gross Longs:	122,049	167,707	32,177
– Gross Shorts:	177,107	109,323	35,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	46.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-26.4	-37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

08 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Speculator Bets hit All-Time Record Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,433 contracts) with Wheat (13,894 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,118 contracts), Soybeans (6,736 contracts), Live Cattle (2,871 contracts) and Cocoa (994 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-42,536 contracts), Coffee (-14,370 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,369 contracts), Cotton (-3,777 contracts) and with Corn (-3,027 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft commodities price performance was led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil, and Soybeans

The top movers this week in price performance for the soft commodities markets were Lean Hogs with a gain of 3.74%, followed by Soybean Oil which rose by 3.17%, and Soybeans which rose by 3.46% over the past five days. Corn was virtually unchanged with a small rise of 0.11%, while Live Cattle was unchanged on the week.

On the downside, Sugar fell by -0.76%, while Cocoa was lower by -1.10% and wheat was down by -1.29%. Cotton dropped by over two percent with a -2.30% decline, while Soybean Meal fell by -3.76%. Coffee was the biggest decliner on the week with a sharp drop of -10.05%.

Sugar Speculator Bets hit all-time low

Highlighting the soft commodities changes this week was an all-time record low hit in the Sugar speculator positions. The large speculator bets for Sugar fell for the fifth consecutive week, and have now fallen by over -72,000 contracts in just these past five weeks. This week’s decline by over -42,000 contracts marked the largest shortfall in spec bets since September, a span of 21 weeks.

Sugar bets for speculators were positive as recently as May of last year, but turned negative on June 3rd, and have now been in an overall bearish position for 36 consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have pushed their bearish positions greater than -100,000 net contracts for 22 consecutive weeks. This weak sentiment culminated in an all-time record low standing for speculators at a total position of -210,289 contracts through Tuesday.

The Sugar price in the futures market has been on a deep, strong downtrend and has fallen approximately 34% in the past 52 weeks. The Sugar price had been on a strong uptrend starting from April of 2020 all the way through November of 2023, where prices rose by over 200%. Since that 2022 high, however, prices have gone the other way and have declined by over 50% and are currently hovering near five-year lows.