Archive for Bonds

COT Speculators push 2-Year Bonds bets into bullish level for 1st time since August

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 30th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT bonds data is the 2-Year Bond speculators bets that rose for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Bond speculators have been improving their bets for the 2-Year steadily and have also pushed their bets higher for seven out of the past nine weeks and by a total of +78,499 contracts over that period. This improving sentiment has brought the current net position standing into a bullish level for the first time since August 17th, a span of fifteen weeks. The 2-Year Treasury Note is now one of the only two bond instruments (the other is the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note) in our tracking that have bullish net positions at the moment.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-30-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,207,541 59 -1,121,656 28 1,568,222 71 -446,566 28
FedFunds 1,426,038 33 -98,478 27 114,396 74 -15,918 31
2-Year 1,789,196 1 15,670 96 35,095 24 -50,765 4
Long T-Bond 1,219,181 52 -49,640 76 29,588 30 20,052 68
10-Year 3,803,125 51 -313,371 24 567,638 93 -254,267 19
5-Year 3,486,538 21 -367,832 16 614,453 97 -246,621 13

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,121,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 178,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,300,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.4 66.3 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.6 53.4 7.4
– Net Position: -1,121,656 1,568,222 -446,566
– Gross Longs: 1,515,247 8,091,297 451,347
– Gross Shorts: 2,636,903 6,523,075 897,913
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.3 70.7 27.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 8.9 -24.9

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -98,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.7 81.6 1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 73.6 2.4
– Net Position: -98,478 114,396 -15,918
– Gross Longs: 52,431 1,163,989 18,288
– Gross Shorts: 150,909 1,049,593 34,206
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.5 73.8 30.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 5.9 -10.7

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 62,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.2 73.0 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.3 71.0 9.9
– Net Position: 15,670 35,095 -50,765
– Gross Longs: 289,388 1,306,141 125,667
– Gross Shorts: 273,718 1,271,046 176,432
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.8 24.2 4.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.9 -26.4 -6.1

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -367,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -284,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 82.0 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 64.4 14.5
– Net Position: -367,832 614,453 -246,621
– Gross Longs: 244,895 2,859,429 258,648
– Gross Shorts: 612,727 2,244,976 505,269
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.5 96.9 13.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.5 13.9 2.3

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -313,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -323,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 78.4 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 63.5 14.5
– Net Position: -313,371 567,638 -254,267
– Gross Longs: 420,694 2,982,808 297,942
– Gross Shorts: 734,065 2,415,170 552,209
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 92.8 19.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -48.2 30.6 15.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 108,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -47,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.5 72.1 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 67.5 19.5
– Net Position: 108,880 66,179 -175,059
– Gross Longs: 250,436 1,030,621 104,031
– Gross Shorts: 141,556 964,442 279,090
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 62.8 10.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.1 9.5 -2.0

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -49,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 72.6 14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.6 70.2 13.2
– Net Position: -49,640 29,588 20,052
– Gross Longs: 127,915 885,731 181,245
– Gross Shorts: 177,555 856,143 161,193
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 29.6 68.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -17.3 36.7

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -291,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 80.5 12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.6 56.6 10.9
– Net Position: -310,496 296,670 13,826
– Gross Longs: 69,305 1,000,175 149,596
– Gross Shorts: 379,801 703,505 135,770
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.5 60.1 38.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -8.4 11.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Junk Bonds Are Sending a Signal to Stock Investors

Something happened just before the historic 2007 stock market top — and it’s happening again

By Elliott Wave International

It’s generally known that stocks are risky. It all hinges on how “hungry” investors are.

So, if investors’ appetite for risk starts to diminish, it stands to reason that this is not a positive development for stocks.

But is there a way to gauge investors’ risk tolerance so as to get an early warning sign before stocks start to tank?

Yes, keep your eye on the junk bond market.

You see, junk bonds also carry a great deal of risk because they’re issued by companies with the weakest balance sheets. Investors’ claim on assets in case of bankruptcy is usually next to the bottom rung, just one notch above equity holders. Hence, the trend in junk bonds often aligns with the trend in equities.

Here’s the important point: When the trends of stocks and junk bonds diverge, with stocks holding up as the value of junk debt declines, it’s usually a sign of impending trouble for stocks.

A past Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets, showed a historical example of such a divergence and said:

A countertrend rally high in prices for high-yield bonds occurred in February 2007, three months before the intraday extreme in the financials, five months before a top in the Dow Jones Composite Average and eight months before a top in the Dow Industrials. All stock indexes then crashed into the first quarter of 2009.

Now, here’s what you need to know in these closing weeks of 2021: Another divergence has been shaping up between high-yield (or “junk”) bonds and stocks.

Indeed, the Nov. 15 U.S. Short Term Update, an Elliott Wave International thrice weekly publication which offers near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, explains why …

… the tension created by the nearly two-month non-confirmation between HYG [a junk bond ETF] and the Dow is about to become more severe.

Plus, the message of the Elliott wave model regarding the stock market is also revealing.

If you’re new to Elliott wave analysis, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis.

If you’d like to learn more about the Wave Principle, there’s a way to read the entire online version of the book for free.

That “way” is to become a Club EWI member. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and membership is free. Plus, members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading with zero obligations.

Just follow this link to get started: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Junk Bonds Are Sending a Signal to Stock Investors. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Treasuries, Fed Funds, 10-Year, 2-Year, 5-Year, Eurodollars & Ultra Treasury Notes

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 23 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-23-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,349,444 62 -1,300,481 25 1,673,242 72 -372,761 53
FedFunds 1,298,421 24 -82,005 29 95,280 71 -13,275 37
2-Year 2,132,720 14 -46,620 82 98,539 36 -51,919 3
Long T-Bond 1,252,959 58 -11,025 89 2,535 21 8,490 59
10-Year 4,124,886 73 -323,415 22 626,237 100 -302,822 8
5-Year 4,093,700 52 -284,883 31 580,200 92 -295,317 0

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,300,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -181,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,119,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.4 66.5 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 53.0 7.2
– Net Position: -1,300,481 1,673,242 -372,761
– Gross Longs: 1,402,059 8,214,489 521,653
– Gross Shorts: 2,702,540 6,541,247 894,414
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 71.7 52.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.6 9.7 -13.8

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -82,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.8 81.2 1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 73.9 2.5
– Net Position: -82,005 95,280 -13,275
– Gross Longs: 62,546 1,054,351 18,787
– Gross Shorts: 144,551 959,071 32,062
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 71.4 36.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 1.9 -5.1

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -41,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.2 73.1 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 68.5 8.9
– Net Position: -46,620 98,539 -51,919
– Gross Longs: 302,567 1,558,485 138,934
– Gross Shorts: 349,187 1,459,946 190,853
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 36.4 3.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 7.2 -17.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -284,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 59,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.2 77.3 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 63.1 14.8
– Net Position: -284,883 580,200 -295,317
– Gross Longs: 335,148 3,165,060 310,719
– Gross Shorts: 620,031 2,584,860 606,036
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.6 92.3 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.7 4.1 -18.4

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -323,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -29,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 77.0 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.5 61.8 15.8
– Net Position: -323,415 626,237 -302,822
– Gross Longs: 437,867 3,176,597 350,623
– Gross Shorts: 761,282 2,550,360 653,445
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.2 100.0 8.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -73.9 57.1 3.8

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 156,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.9 71.7 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.0 69.4 19.6
– Net Position: 156,586 35,408 -191,994
– Gross Longs: 297,229 1,125,042 115,416
– Gross Shorts: 140,643 1,089,634 307,410
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.1 54.2 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -14.3 -6.9

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 69.9 14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 69.7 14.1
– Net Position: -11,025 2,535 8,490
– Gross Longs: 153,738 876,170 185,217
– Gross Shorts: 164,763 873,635 176,727
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.5 20.9 59.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.0 -26.7 22.4

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -291,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.8 80.0 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 58.2 12.1
– Net Position: -291,720 280,496 11,224
– Gross Longs: 75,005 1,029,708 167,388
– Gross Shorts: 366,725 749,212 156,164
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.2 52.2 36.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -18.1 10.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Speculators drop 10-Year Treasury Notes bets to lowest level in 91-weeks

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data this week is the increase in bearishness of the 10-Year Treasury Note speculators. The 10-Year speculative positions fell by -26,809 net contracts this week and have now declined in four out of the past five weeks. Speculator net positions have experienced a huge drop of -450,183 contracts in just that 5-week period. This bearishness has dropped the current spec level to the most bearish standing since February 18th of 2020, a span of ninety-one weeks.

Looking at the overall situation in the 10-Year futures market shows that speculators (-294,141 contracts) and small traders (-304,450 contracts) currently make up the bearish side while the commercial hedgers (598,591 contracts) are very bullish and sport a strength index score of 99 percent. This means that commercial traders are right at the top of their range of bullishness over the past three years and as these traders can eventually move markets, this situation bears watching.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,283,299 61 -1,119,283 28 1,477,223 68 -357,940 55
FedFunds 1,207,677 17 -65,206 32 74,839 69 -9,633 45
2-Year 2,016,362 9 -5,445 91 63,501 30 -58,056 0
Long T-Bond 1,232,186 54 -16,368 88 8,293 23 8,075 59
10-Year 3,972,392 62 -294,141 27 598,591 99 -304,450 8
5-Year 3,630,431 28 -344,595 20 581,981 93 -237,386 5

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,119,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -147,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -971,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.0 66.3 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 54.2 7.3
– Net Position: -1,119,283 1,477,223 -357,940
– Gross Longs: 1,477,552 8,137,706 540,741
– Gross Shorts: 2,596,835 6,660,483 898,681
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.3 67.7 55.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 8.6 -16.1

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.9 81.4 1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.3 75.2 2.5
– Net Position: -65,206 74,839 -9,633
– Gross Longs: 58,782 982,458 20,741
– Gross Shorts: 123,988 907,619 30,374
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 69.0 44.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.6 -1.8 4.3

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 73.3 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 70.1 8.9
– Net Position: -5,445 63,501 -58,056
– Gross Longs: 345,245 1,477,100 121,652
– Gross Shorts: 350,690 1,413,599 179,708
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.1 29.6 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.2 1.9 -25.8

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -344,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 62,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -407,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.3 81.1 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.8 65.1 13.7
– Net Position: -344,595 581,981 -237,386
– Gross Longs: 300,750 2,944,901 261,002
– Gross Shorts: 645,345 2,362,920 498,388
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.7 92.6 5.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 4.5 -1.3

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -294,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -267,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 76.9 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 61.8 15.1
– Net Position: -294,141 598,591 -304,450
– Gross Longs: 486,980 3,053,354 293,521
– Gross Shorts: 781,121 2,454,763 597,971
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 99.0 7.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -67.1 51.3 6.9

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 162,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -39,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.1 71.6 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 71.4 17.3
– Net Position: 162,410 3,376 -165,786
– Gross Longs: 324,961 1,154,942 113,100
– Gross Shorts: 162,551 1,151,566 278,886
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.6 45.2 11.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.5 -25.6 6.2

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.8 69.6 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 68.9 15.4
– Net Position: -16,368 8,293 8,075
– Gross Longs: 144,973 857,612 197,253
– Gross Shorts: 161,341 849,319 189,178
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.5 22.8 59.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -32.4 15.4

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -298,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -300,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 80.4 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.6 57.5 11.6
– Net Position: -298,879 287,988 10,891
– Gross Longs: 74,179 1,012,845 156,624
– Gross Shorts: 373,058 724,857 145,733
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.3 55.9 36.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -17.7 15.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Speculators boosted Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes & 2-Year bonds bets

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

Highlighting this week’s COT data for bonds were the gains in speculative bets for the Ultra 10-Year Notes and the 2-Year bond. These two markets each rose by over +46,000 net positions this week and led the weekly net changes for all the markets we cover. These two markets are also in extreme bullish positions for the speculator strength indexes with the 2-Year bond at an 88.6 percent score while the Ultra 10-Year is at an 81.1 percent score. The strength index weighs the current position against the past three years with extreme scores above 80 (bullish) and below 20 (bearish).


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-09-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,396,094 63 -971,910 31 1,331,314 65 -359,404 56
FedFunds 1,157,278 14 -67,949 31 77,176 69 -9,227 45
2-Year 2,013,763 9 -16,737 89 68,313 31 -51,576 1
Long T-Bond 1,206,593 50 -28,072 83 10,259 23 17,813 67
10-Year 3,883,483 56 -267,332 31 572,247 96 -304,915 8
5-Year 3,600,589 26 -407,485 8 637,634 100 -230,149 8

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -971,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -993,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.8 66.8 4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 56.0 6.9
– Net Position: -971,910 1,331,314 -359,404
– Gross Longs: 1,581,479 8,275,703 492,587
– Gross Shorts: 2,553,389 6,944,389 851,991
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 65.1 55.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 3.8 -18.0

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.2 81.5 2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 74.8 2.8
– Net Position: -67,949 77,176 -9,227
– Gross Longs: 48,886 943,134 22,753
– Gross Shorts: 116,835 865,958 31,980
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.3 45.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 -2.7 6.2

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 46,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 73.1 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 69.7 8.7
– Net Position: -16,737 68,313 -51,576
– Gross Longs: 345,187 1,471,287 124,473
– Gross Shorts: 361,924 1,402,974 176,049
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 30.6 0.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.2 1.0 -29.0

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -407,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 82.3 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.5 64.6 13.5
– Net Position: -407,485 637,634 -230,149
– Gross Longs: 258,018 2,964,073 256,898
– Gross Shorts: 665,503 2,326,439 487,047
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.3 100.0 7.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 23.5 -20.8

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -267,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -268,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 76.6 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 61.9 15.7
– Net Position: -267,332 572,247 -304,915
– Gross Longs: 491,821 2,976,174 303,939
– Gross Shorts: 759,153 2,403,927 608,854
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.9 95.7 7.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -69.1 58.6 -3.5

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 202,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 48,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 153,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 71.0 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.5 72.2 17.9
– Net Position: 202,050 -18,901 -183,149
– Gross Longs: 355,010 1,147,620 105,943
– Gross Shorts: 152,960 1,166,521 289,092
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.1 39.0 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.3 -27.2 -18.5

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.0 71.6 15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 70.7 14.0
– Net Position: -28,072 10,259 17,813
– Gross Longs: 132,694 863,487 186,632
– Gross Shorts: 160,766 853,228 168,819
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.3 23.4 66.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 28.3 -27.7 6.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -300,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -292,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.7 81.4 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 58.0 12.0
– Net Position: -300,782 291,663 9,119
– Gross Longs: 58,213 1,013,082 157,838
– Gross Shorts: 358,995 721,419 148,719
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.5 57.7 34.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -1.5 2.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Interest rates: why the era of cheap money is finally ending

By John Whittaker, Lancaster University 

The Bank of England was widely expected to slightly increase its official bank rate on November 4, but it decided to stick to the all-time low of 0.1%. However, the bank has made it clear that a rise will soon be needed, and the recent increases in mortgage rates indicate that lenders agree. So why the decision to hold off?

The Bank of England is well aware of the distress that higher rates cause for borrowers and, in particular, for the biggest borrower in the land: the UK government. At the current level of national debt, roughly £2 trillion, every rise in rates by one percentage point pushes up the interest paid by the government on its bonds by £20 billion per year over the long term.

Higher rates also have a dampening effect on the prices of property and financial assets such as shares. Indeed, this is one way in which monetary policy is believed to work: if people feel less wealthy, they spend less and this relieves the pressure on inflation.

On the other hand, what’s bad for borrowers is good for savers. As rates rise, bank deposits will be better rewarded and even the finances of our beleaguered pension funds should begin to look more healthy.

But regardless of who wins and who loses from higher interest rates, inflation is on the rise. The bank does not want to lose credibility by letting it rise too far before tightening monetary policy.

The inflation dilemma

After rising for the past 12 months, UK inflation is currently 3.1%, and the bank expects it could even reach an uncomfortable 5% by early next year – much higher than its 2% target. Yet the bank maintains the view that this higher inflation will turn out to be temporary, arguing that it will fall back as the post-COVID excess demand for goods subsides and supply bottlenecks are worked out. Against that, energy prices are likely to remain higher, driven partly by climate initiatives; and if employers continue to have trouble filling vacancies, higher wages will also tend to push up prices.

The bottom line is that nobody really knows where inflation is heading, so the bank is wrestling with the usual dilemma: does it raise rates now to forestall future inflation, or does it hold rates down to avoid jeopardising the economic recovery while hoping that inflation will subside by itself? It can’t have it both ways.

Annual inflation 2019-21

Graph showing annual inflation 2019-21
ONS

This same dilemma is echoed in other countries. In the United States, the position is similarly troubling, with inflation already at 5.4% against a 2% target. Yet the Federal Reserve also continues to insist that the current high inflation is temporary, thereby justifying keeping its official interest rate (the Fed funds rate) near zero.

Yet the Fed is not completely sitting on its hands; it has announced that it will start “tapering” its quantitative easing (QE) programme, in which it is creating US$120 billion (£89 billion) a month to buy US government bonds and other financial assets to help prop up the economy. From the middle of November, it will scale this back by US$15 billion each month. This is at least an acknowledgement by the Fed that its excessively stimulatory monetary policy must eventually come to an end.

Back in the UK, the Bank of England has accumulated £800 billion of government debt as a result of its own QE asset purchases, designed to stimulate demand particularly since the outbreak of COVID. At some stage, the bank will need to begin offloading this debt.

Its choices of when and how to do this present the bank with arguably an even bigger dilemma than the bank rate, because unwinding QE will drive up yields on bonds – thus directly raising interest costs for the government and all other long-term borrowers.

Yields on 10-year UK government bonds

Chart showing 10-year government bond yields
Trading Economics

In fact, yields have already started rising after many years of decline (see chart above). This is a sign that investors think that monetary policy needs to become tighter to curb inflation (by raising official rates and reversing QE) – which also explains why mortgage rates have already been rising.

This all confirms that the long era of ever-cheaper finance is finally over. The future will be tougher thanks to higher interest rates, or higher inflation, or both.The Conversation

John Whittaker, Senior Teaching Fellow in Economics, Lancaster University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 2-Year & Long Treasury Notes see Speculator bets rise this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 2nd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT Bonds data is the general rise in speculator positions among a few of the bond market symbols while other symbols fell sharply. This week has seen the 2-Year bond speculators boost their net positions by +49,210 contracts while the Ultra Long US Treasury bond bets increased by 38,602 contracts and the Long US Treasury bond positions gained by 34,447 contracts this week. These were the second, third and fourth highest weekly changes for speculator positions this week. On the other side of the leaders were the Fed Funds, 5-Year, 10-Year and the Eurodollar markets which registered as the symbols with the largest speculator net decreases on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-02-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,358,986 62 -993,373 31 1,355,371 64 -361,998 56
FedFunds 1,160,971 14 -62,468 32 74,234 69 -11,766 40
2-Year 2,052,533 11 -63,108 78 116,263 40 -53,155 0
Long T-Bond 1,158,749 42 -32,547 82 48,443 36 -15,896 40
10-Year 3,973,988 63 -268,669 31 606,611 100 -337,942 0
5-Year 3,568,732 24 -376,353 29 606,647 94 -230,294 8

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -993,373 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -268,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -724,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.6 66.1 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.7 55.2 7.2
– Net Position: -993,373 1,355,371 -361,998
– Gross Longs: 1,561,061 8,174,708 530,581
– Gross Shorts: 2,554,434 6,819,337 892,579
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 64.3 55.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 7.8 -30.5

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -62,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.4 80.7 2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.7 74.3 3.0
– Net Position: -62,468 74,234 -11,766
– Gross Longs: 50,587 937,379 23,576
– Gross Shorts: 113,055 863,145 35,342
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.9 39.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -2.6 -4.4

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 49,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.0 74.1 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.1 68.5 8.8
– Net Position: -63,108 116,263 -53,155
– Gross Longs: 329,143 1,521,704 127,629
– Gross Shorts: 392,251 1,405,441 180,784
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.4 39.8 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.2 19.9 -40.2

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -376,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.9 80.7 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 63.7 13.8
– Net Position: -376,353 606,647 -230,294
– Gross Longs: 317,689 2,880,804 263,908
– Gross Shorts: 694,042 2,274,157 494,202
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.2 94.2 7.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.4 42.2 -28.3

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -268,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -153,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 76.8 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 61.6 15.9
– Net Position: -268,669 606,611 -337,942
– Gross Longs: 496,137 3,052,628 294,092
– Gross Shorts: 764,806 2,446,017 632,034
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 100.0 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -50.8 55.4 -25.2

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 153,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 71.9 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.9 70.5 18.0
– Net Position: 153,483 23,194 -176,677
– Gross Longs: 325,104 1,136,251 107,890
– Gross Shorts: 171,621 1,113,057 284,567
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.3 50.8 2.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.8 -11.8 -16.2

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 73.6 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.4 15.9
– Net Position: -32,547 48,443 -15,896
– Gross Longs: 121,529 852,718 168,279
– Gross Shorts: 154,076 804,275 184,175
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.7 35.6 40.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.0 -8.9 -22.0

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -292,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.9 82.5 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 59.2 12.0
– Net Position: -292,611 283,250 9,361
– Gross Longs: 47,132 1,001,156 154,604
– Gross Shorts: 339,743 717,906 145,243
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.8 53.6 35.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 3.1 -6.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 5-Year Treasury Bond Speculator bets fall to 46-Week Low

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 26th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT Bonds data is the 5-Year Treasury Bond’s speculator positions that fell to a forty-six week low-point. The 5-year bond speculative position declined by over -86,000 contracts this week and fell for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The spec position has now fallen by a total -317,109 contracts over the past six weeks. The current net bearish standing sits at a total of -341,475 contracts for the 5-year bond speculators which registers as the most bearish level since December 8th of 2020 when net positions totaled -342,024 contracts.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-26-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,675,714 68 -724,993 36 1,046,056 59 -321,063 61
FedFunds 1,293,093 23 -44,591 34 54,410 66 -9,819 44
2-Year 2,029,079 10 -112,318 67 154,788 47 -42,470 1
Long T-Bond 1,173,180 44 -66,994 69 87,013 48 -20,019 37
10-Year 4,000,227 64 -114,845 59 441,515 75 -326,670 2
5-Year 3,586,544 25 -341,475 34 579,881 91 -238,406 5

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -724,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 56,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -781,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 63.7 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 55.5 6.9
– Net Position: -724,993 1,046,056 -321,063
– Gross Longs: 1,711,694 8,076,945 551,131
– Gross Shorts: 2,436,687 7,030,889 872,194
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.4 58.9 61.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 5.3 -23.8

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 78.6 1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.1 74.4 2.1
– Net Position: -44,591 54,410 -9,819
– Gross Longs: 72,575 1,016,206 17,945
– Gross Shorts: 117,166 961,796 27,764
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.1 66.5 44.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -3.6 -8.1

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -112,318 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.3 73.8 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 66.2 8.9
– Net Position: -112,318 154,788 -42,470
– Gross Longs: 330,130 1,497,320 138,359
– Gross Shorts: 442,448 1,342,532 180,829
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.5 47.2 0.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.4 28.2 -35.2

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -341,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -86,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -255,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.0 79.3 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 63.1 13.8
– Net Position: -341,475 579,881 -238,406
– Gross Longs: 359,180 2,844,217 255,899
– Gross Shorts: 700,655 2,264,336 494,305
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 90.7 5.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -47.6 55.7 -32.7

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -114,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.5 73.4 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.4 15.4
– Net Position: -114,845 441,515 -326,670
– Gross Longs: 660,004 2,937,167 287,429
– Gross Shorts: 774,849 2,495,652 614,099
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.9 74.9 1.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.9 41.9 -24.8

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 156,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.0 72.6 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 71.4 18.4
– Net Position: 156,754 19,632 -176,386
– Gross Longs: 306,662 1,116,413 106,942
– Gross Shorts: 149,908 1,096,781 283,328
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.1 49.8 2.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -15.1 -6.4

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -66,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.7 13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 68.2 15.6
– Net Position: -66,994 87,013 -20,019
– Gross Longs: 103,650 887,603 163,344
– Gross Shorts: 170,644 800,590 183,363
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.3 47.9 36.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 12.9 -27.1

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -331,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -311,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 82.7 12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.8 56.0 12.1
– Net Position: -331,213 325,324 5,889
– Gross Longs: 44,062 1,007,205 153,271
– Gross Shorts: 375,275 681,881 147,382
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 74.2 32.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 23.8 -13.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

What Junk Bonds Convey About Investors’ Mindset

“Governments feel rich and are spending like drunken sailors” 

By Elliott Wave International

Extremely elevated financial optimism is being expressed in multiple ways.
In some ways, the behavior of investors is unprecedented — which is saying a lot given the financial extremes of past bull markets.

Consider the junk bond market here in 2021. The September Elliott Wave Theorist showed this chart and said:

NegativeRealYield

As we continue to demonstrate, stocks, property, cryptocurrencies and digital art are not the only overvalued markets. Bonds are no less crazily priced. The chart reveals that fully 85% of all junk bonds yield less than the annualized percentage change in the Consumer Price Index. How is that for blind optimism?

Yes, stocks remain near record-high territory after a more than 12-year uptrend, bitcoin is near record-high territory and the rate of price increases in the housing market has been unprecedented (again, saying a lot given the extremes of the prior housing boom).

Even so, an Oct. 18 Fortune article says:

In the next 15 months — through the end of 2022 — Goldman Sachs is forecasting U.S. home prices will soar another 16%.

And, who would have ever imagined a few short years ago that digital images would sell for millions?

Yet, here’s the latest headline (Oct. 19):

How a 12-year-old coder says he made $600,000 by selling Weird Whales NFTs

Of course, “NFT” stands for non-fungible token — a unique digital asset. The current craze in that space is around digital artwork.

The October Elliott Wave Theorist mentions several more expressions of a positive social mood. Here are just a portion of them:

Governments feel rich and are spending like drunken sailors; central bankers are confident and unworried, and they have been characterized as heroes; the world economy is producing more tax revenue than ever, despite government efforts to kill productivity; and there are no wars anywhere on the entire planet.

The October Theorist concludes with a hint of what to expect over the next three years.

The Elliott Wave Theorist is part of the Financial Forecast Service — Elliott Wave International’s flagship investor package — which offers Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Junk Bonds Convey About Investors’ Mindset. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Treasury Notes, Fed Funds, 10-Year, 2-Year, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollars

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 19th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-19-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
Eurodollar 12,424,747 63 -781,200 35 1,080,706 60 -299,506 64
FedFunds 1,217,775 18 -54,484 33 65,503 68 -11,019 42
2-Year 1,991,689 8 -132,952 63 172,598 51 -39,646 2
Long T-Bond 1,186,553 48 -57,571 73 83,737 47 -26,166 32
10-Year 4,095,300 71 -544 75 319,388 60 -318,844 4
5-Year 3,637,741 28 -255,211 47 510,373 82 -255,162 0

 


3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -781,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 82,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -863,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.6 63.4 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.9 54.7 6.9
– Net Position: -781,200 1,080,706 -299,506
– Gross Longs: 1,565,312 7,876,268 563,787
– Gross Shorts: 2,346,512 6,795,562 863,293
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.3 59.5 64.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 5.6 -16.3

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 77.6 1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.5 72.2 2.5
– Net Position: -54,484 65,503 -11,019
– Gross Longs: 73,882 945,177 19,058
– Gross Shorts: 128,366 879,674 30,077
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 67.8 41.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -3.6 -8.2

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -132,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -92,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.6 73.6 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 64.9 8.5
– Net Position: -132,952 172,598 -39,646
– Gross Longs: 350,293 1,465,365 129,379
– Gross Shorts: 483,245 1,292,767 169,025
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.9 50.6 2.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.0 22.1 -28.3

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -255,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 66,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.4 77.7 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.4 63.7 14.0
– Net Position: -255,211 510,373 -255,162
– Gross Longs: 414,711 2,827,556 253,812
– Gross Shorts: 669,922 2,317,183 508,974
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.4 81.5 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 40.6 -36.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -156,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 71.4 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.2 63.6 15.0
– Net Position: -544 319,388 -318,844
– Gross Longs: 743,719 2,922,085 295,191
– Gross Shorts: 744,263 2,602,697 614,035
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 60.3 3.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 11.2 -21.7

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 139,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 45,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.7 72.8 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 70.7 18.4
– Net Position: 139,559 32,149 -171,708
– Gross Longs: 301,286 1,110,821 108,529
– Gross Shorts: 161,727 1,078,672 280,237
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.6 53.3 5.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -14.3 1.9

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -57,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.8 13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.8 67.7 15.8
– Net Position: -57,571 83,737 -26,166
– Gross Longs: 117,543 887,561 161,202
– Gross Shorts: 175,114 803,824 187,368
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.7 46.8 31.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.3 -0.9 -18.4

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -311,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 81.4 12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.6 55.6 12.7
– Net Position: -311,777 313,784 -2,007
– Gross Longs: 60,848 989,707 152,699
– Gross Shorts: 372,625 675,923 154,706
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.0 68.5 26.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 16.2 -7.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).