InvestMacro

Murrey Math Lines 23.01.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are in the overbought area. The RSI is also nearing the overbought area. As a result, a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.0864) should be expected, from where the price might fall to the support level of 8/8 (1.0741). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of +2/8 (1.0986), which might lead to reshuffling of Murrey lines and setting new goals for the price.

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

GBPUSDD

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. However, the RSI demonstrates a divergence. This means that a bounce off 6/8 (1.2451) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 4/8 (1.2207). This movement will be interpreted as a correction of the uptrend. The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakaway of 6/8 (1.2451), in which case the pair might continue growth and reach 7/8 (1.2573).

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Mass layoffs have begun in the United States. The Bank of Japan to continue its soft monetary policy

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.00% (-2.05% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.89% (+0.30% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.66% on Friday (+2.15% for the week).

The US government reached its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday amid a spat between uncompromising Republicans and Democrats over raising the nation’s debt ceiling. But traders can be sure the politicians will eventually agree because they have no choice. It happens every year, and this time is no exception.

This week, investors will be treated to a wave of reports from major technology companies. Microsoft (MSFT), the second largest US company by market value, reports on Tuesday, followed by Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday and Intel (INTC) on Thursday. The reporting season started sluggishly. According to Refinitiv, S&P 500 companies are expected to record a 2.9% drop in fourth-quarter earnings overall compared with the previous year.

Alphabet (GOOGL) said Friday that it is cutting about 12,000 jobs or 6% of its workforce. Last week, Microsoft on Wednesday said it would cut 10,000 jobs, while Amazon (AMZN) began notifying employees that it would cut 18,000 jobs. Apparently, the US job market is starting to fall, which will undoubtedly show up in the next labor market reports. For regular people losing their jobs is a serious blow. But for the stock market, it will be a boost as the US Federal Reserve will hold off on raising rates so as not to hurt the economy even more.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.76% (-0.52% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR 40) added 0.63% (-0.58% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.38% (+0.13% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.30% (-0.94% for the week).

In Canada, a federal government law designed to help the fossil fuel workforce transition to a greener economy has caused unions to be unhappy. The government of Alberta, Canada’s main oil-producing province, says the law will eliminate the oil and gas industry, which accounts for 5% of Canada’s GDP. Canada’s oil and gas sector employs about 185,000 people, and the bill could lead to significant job cuts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently leading the charge against the US Federal Reserve. Last week, support for the euro was largely due to a sell-off in the dollar and a firm stance by ECB President Christine Lagarde on fighting inflation. The ECB head expressed concern that China’s opening will lead to higher energy prices in 2023, and the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to bring inflation down to 2%.

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt plans to extend the 5 pence reduction in gasoline prices for another year. On the one hand, this is good news because it will help reduce the cost of gasoline at gas stations. On the other hand, untargeted government spending may keep inflation high for longer, which will only make it harder for the Bank of England, which needs to keep raising rates while the economy is already in recession.

Inflation in Switzerland may have peaked, but it’s too soon to swear off new interest rate hikes, Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said.

Asian markets mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.77% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.04% over the week, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.16%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.69% over the week.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday defended the central bank’s decision to expand its trading range under its yield curve control program and pledged to continue the Bank of Japan’s soft monetary policy. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Kuroda said it was “not wrong” for the BOJ’s board to widen its tolerance range for the yield on its 10-year government bond from 25 basis points to 50 basis points last month.

In the commodities market, cotton futures (+5.46%), gasoline (+4.23%), Brent crude oil (+2.79%), and WTI crude oil (+2.29%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-8.34%), palladium (-3.21%), cocoa (-2.94%), and platinum (-1.92%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,972.61 +73.76 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,375.49 +330.93 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 15,033.56 +113.20 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,770.59 +23.30 (+0.30%)

USD Index 101.99 -0.07 (-0.06%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Jan

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD In Breakout Mode?

By ForexTime

EURUSD may be gearing up for a major breakout as the technicals and fundamentals continue to align.

Over the past few months, euro bulls dominated the scene – pushing prices further away from parity. It also stood its ground in the G10 space, appreciating against most counterparts thanks to fundamental forces.

The single European currency has already kicked off the trading week punching above 1.09, marking a new high since April 2022! With the strong upside momentum showing little signs of cooling down, further upside could be on the cards – especially with the support of economic data.

As the discussion around interest rates between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central bank (ECB) rages on, this is likely to result in increased volatility for the EURUSD. The Euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, rising inflation in the Eurozone, and most importantly a hawkish ECB. On the other hand, repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States have fuelled speculation about the Fed slowing down its pace of rate increases. Ultimately, the narrowing monetary policy divergence between both central banks is likely to fuel the upside in the EURUSD.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices pressing against 1.0900 as of writing. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.1200.

The low down…

Christine Lagarde delivered her hawkish message to Davos last week, warning markets not to underestimate the ECB’s monetary policy. Lagarde stated that inflation remained “way too high” with the ECB determined to stay the course on rates till inflation returned to 2%. Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month and potentially a similar move in March. However, this may be influenced by economic data and the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, with inflation still at lofty levels, this may keep doves at bay while empowering hawks.

Regarding the Fed, it has kicked off a two-week black period ahead of the rate meeting on Wednesday 1st of February. With Fed speeches out of the picture, the dollar is set to be influenced by key economic reports. If the incoming data continues to fuel dollar weakness, this will add to the growing list of factors pushing the EURUSD higher.

The week ahead

It is a data-heavy week for the EUR and USD.

On Monday, the Euro was knocked lower by the disappointing consumer confidence figures for January. Although consumer confidence rose for a third month to -22.2 in December 2022, this was below market expectations. Appetite towards the single Euro currency could be rekindled if Christine Lagarde strikes a hawkish note during her speech this evening.

Tuesday sees the Eurozone and US January PMI’s which could inject fresh volatility into the EURUSD. On Wednesday, we have the January IFO business climate figure for Germany, and all-important US Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The first estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to show that economic growth slowed in Q4. According to Bloomberg, forecasts point to an increase of 2.7% compared to the 3.2% growth witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. A disappointing figure may compound the dollar’s woes, dragging prices lower as bets on smaller Fed rate hikes intensify. Much attention will be on the US December personal income data, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator. This is expected to cool further to 4.4% year-on-year compared to the 4.7% seen in November. A report that meets or prints below forecast may weaken the USD even further.

EURUSD poised to push higher

In our 2023 market outlook, we highlighted how a weaker dollar could fuel the EURUSD’s great rebound. Fast forward to today, the currency pair has jumped almost 400 pips. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Although 1.0900 may provide some resistance, the fundamentals and technicals favour further upside. A strong monthly close above 1.0900 may signal a move towards 1.1200 in February.

Zooming into the daily charts, there are a couple of smaller checkpoints before prices potentially hit 1.1200, which are 1.0970 and 1.1120. Should 1.0900 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 1.0770 and 1.0700 could be on the table.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Currency Speculators retreat from US Dollar Index bullish bets to a 78-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,416 contracts) with the British Pound (4,759 contracts), Mexican Peso (4,742 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,696 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (70 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,998 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-3,182 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,292 contracts), Bitcoin (-33 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the US Dollar Index bullish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the US Dollar Index fell this week for a second straight week and for the third time out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s bullish position has almost fallen by half over the past five weeks going from a total of +25,778 contracts on December 13th to a total of +13,358 contracts this week. These declines have now pushed the Dollar Index to the least bullish level for speculators since July 20th of 2021, a span of 78 weeks.

Since riding a strong bullish wave to a 274-week high on June 14th of 2022 (at +45,010 contracts), the US Dollar Index speculator positioning has been in a slow but steady downtrend that continued this week.

The US Dollar Index futures price has also been in a downtrend after ascending to a multi-year peak in September at the 114.74 level. That marked the best price level for the Dollar Index since 2002 and was the start of the recent slide that has brought the Dollar Index to its current level of 101.78 (for an approximate loss of 11 percent). Since September, most of the major currencies have gained against the Dollar and have made some moderate recoveries after falling to multi-decade lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,388	44	13,358	47	-15,570	51	2,212	41
EUR	753,915	92	126,984	74	-179,074	25	52,090	62
GBP	201,956	38	-24,697	48	31,436	55	-6,739	45
JPY	176,862	36	-22,961	55	18,084	44	4,877	63
CHF	34,300	16	-7,941	34	11,357	64	-3,416	46
CAD	132,346	18	-27,259	9	27,488	92	-229	30
AUD	128,213	28	-33,620	54	25,936	38	7,684	71
NZD	31,579	10	6,058	70	-6,686	31	628	59
MXN	274,227	84	-48,639	7	42,299	90	6,340	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	40,800	28	22,193	70	-23,748	30	1,555	79
Bitcoin	15,885	83	-627	66	337	0	290	20

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (70 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (47.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (43.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (73.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-19 percent), Bitcoin (-12 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-19.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-17.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-41.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-50.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	2.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.1	7.8
– Net Position:	13,358	-15,570	2,212
– Gross Longs:	31,694	1,031	5,292
– Gross Shorts:	18,336	16,601	3,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.0	-4.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.0	5.6
– Net Position:	126,984	-179,074	52,090
– Gross Longs:	228,279	416,510	94,476
– Gross Shorts:	101,295	595,584	42,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	25.2	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-5.4	27.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	64.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	49.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-24,697	31,436	-6,739
– Gross Longs:	41,469	130,575	24,051
– Gross Shorts:	66,166	99,139	30,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	55.4	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.3	5.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	65.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	54.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-22,961	18,084	4,877
– Gross Longs:	29,458	114,907	30,761
– Gross Shorts:	52,419	96,823	25,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	44.5	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-27.9	28.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	55.2	33.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	22.1	43.3
– Net Position:	-7,941	11,357	-3,416
– Gross Longs:	3,919	18,933	11,429
– Gross Shorts:	11,860	7,576	14,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.7	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	57.0	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	36.2	24.5
– Net Position:	-27,259	27,488	-229
– Gross Longs:	20,897	75,387	32,211
– Gross Shorts:	48,156	47,899	32,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	91.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	3.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	35.2	14.6
– Net Position:	-33,620	25,936	7,684
– Gross Longs:	28,593	71,052	26,348
– Gross Shorts:	62,213	45,116	18,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	38.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-12.6	24.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	50.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.5	10.4
– Net Position:	6,058	-6,686	628
– Gross Longs:	11,308	15,888	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,250	22,574	3,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	30.7	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-30.6	5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	41.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	26.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	42,299	6,340
– Gross Longs:	150,543	113,924	8,681
– Gross Shorts:	199,182	71,625	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	90.4	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.2	39.9	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	10.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.7	6.2
– Net Position:	22,193	-23,748	1,555
– Gross Longs:	32,429	4,270	4,096
– Gross Shorts:	10,236	28,018	2,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	30.2	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-6.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	6.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-627	337	290
– Gross Longs:	12,456	951	1,440
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	614	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	80.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	44.0	-4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 166,350 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,640 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 76.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered -52,355 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 20,452 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 74.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 126,984 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 72.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 74,143 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,851 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level sits at a 70.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was 6,058 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,292 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -126,321 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,051 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -42,014 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,298 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -545,057 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -133,699 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The speculator position was -26,745 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,006 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -680,655 net contracts this week with a drop of -57,504 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Metals Speculators boosted their Gold Bullish Bets higher for 7th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,011 contracts) with Gold (2,705 contracts) and Silver (2,455 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,158 contracts) and Palladium (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent streak of gains for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the past eleven weeks. The Gold position has now gone from a multi-year low total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +153,240 contracts this week which marks the highest weekly total of the past 29 weeks, dating back to June 28th.

The Gold futures price has been on the move higher since seeing a recent bottom in October around the $1,620.00 level. This week, the Gold futures closed at $1,928.20 per ounce which is the highest close since April and Gold is showing an approximate gain by 18 percent since the October bottom.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (32.6 percent)
Silver (48.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.5 percent)
Platinum (40.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.4 percent)
Palladium (11.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.3 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.7 percent)
Copper (11.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (-2.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (8.7 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 153,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 150,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	25.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	60.7	5.2
– Net Position:	153,240	-175,913	22,673
– Gross Longs:	246,874	122,814	48,128
– Gross Shorts:	93,634	298,727	25,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	64.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	32.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.8	7.6
– Net Position:	31,468	-45,367	13,899
– Gross Longs:	57,439	42,668	23,983
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	88,035	10,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	52.4	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	46.0	6.7
– Net Position:	16,238	-22,695	6,457
– Gross Longs:	84,910	69,997	19,961
– Gross Shorts:	68,672	92,692	13,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	49.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-14.2	21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	27.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	68.5	3.9
– Net Position:	23,544	-28,913	5,369
– Gross Longs:	40,387	19,831	8,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,843	48,744	2,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	59.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.6	11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	24.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-2,751	2,902	-151
– Gross Longs:	2,125	5,025	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	4,876	2,123	1,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	86.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	14.3	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

21 Jan

Bonds Speculators increased 10-Year Treasury Bearish Bets to 222-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (26,095 contracts) with the Eurodollar (1,683 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-133,699 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-57,504 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-6,620 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,022 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-28,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp decline in the 10-Year Treasury Bond speculator positioning. The 10-Year Bond large speculator positions fell this week by a total of -133,699 contracts and have now dropped for four consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have declined in six out of the past seven weeks as well. These last four weeks alone have added a total of -228,114 bearish contracts to the overall bearish position of -545,057 contracts. This weakness has driven the current speculator level to the most bearish point of the past 222 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2018.

Despite the current speculator sentiment, the 10-Year Bond prices have been edging a little higher since hitting a multi-year low in October. The 10-Year interest rate (rates rise as bond prices fall) is sitting around 3.50 percent currently after peaking in October at just above 4.33 percent.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,891,238	0	-1,053,852	34	1,265,098	64	-211,246	58
FedFunds	1,645,779	59	-86,235	29	105,583	73	-19,348	12
2-Year	2,335,967	25	-462,671	18	452,042	79	10,629	57
Long T-Bond	1,222,141	47	-192,393	22	170,932	72	21,461	70
10-Year	4,018,107	66	-545,057	0	615,855	95	-70,798	63
5-Year	4,159,392	60	-680,655	1	689,573	90	-8,918	79

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (29 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (23 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and 2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Eurodollar (33.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.7 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (-1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
Eurodollar (10.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,053,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,055,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	68.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,053,852	1,265,098	-211,246
– Gross Longs:	452,273	4,061,161	299,890
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,125	2,796,063	511,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	63.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-12.1	19.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	74.7	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-86,235	105,583	-19,348
– Gross Longs:	167,385	1,229,497	30,086
– Gross Shorts:	253,620	1,123,914	49,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.7	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.2	-30.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -462,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-462,671	452,042	10,629
– Gross Longs:	179,898	1,909,141	204,038
– Gross Shorts:	642,569	1,457,099	193,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	79.0	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-11.8	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -680,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -57,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	85.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	68.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-680,655	689,573	-8,918
– Gross Longs:	220,650	3,538,627	341,784
– Gross Shorts:	901,305	2,849,054	350,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	90.4	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-9.1	28.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -545,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -133,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -411,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-545,057	615,855	-70,798
– Gross Longs:	334,022	3,237,951	360,271
– Gross Shorts:	879,079	2,622,096	431,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	15.8	10.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -126,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-126,321	224,640	-98,319
– Gross Longs:	155,613	1,178,847	150,997
– Gross Shorts:	281,934	954,207	249,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.0	-10.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -192,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	81.3	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-192,393	170,932	21,461
– Gross Longs:	51,842	994,046	171,647
– Gross Shorts:	244,235	823,114	150,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	71.6	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	28.6	-2.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -385,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	59.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-385,428	342,092	43,336
– Gross Longs:	64,109	1,193,027	163,472
– Gross Shorts:	449,537	850,935	120,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	81.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.9	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

21 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Wheat bets to lowest in 192-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (38,078 contracts) with Soybeans (28,737 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,640 contracts) and Cocoa (477 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-12,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,862 contracts), Cotton (-9,991 contracts), Sugar (-1,015 contracts), Wheat (-2,298 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,604 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,851 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued declines in the Wheat speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Wheat fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the twelfth time in the past fifteen weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Wheat (currently at -42,014 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 192 weeks, dating back to May 14th of 2019.

Wheat prices have been under pressure as well with prices trading at near the lowest levels since 2021. Helping to keep Wheat sentiment and prices down have been better than expected plantings and supply of Wheat in the USA and globally.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,613,466	19	239,218	9	-255,599	92	16,381	26
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40
Natural Gas	1,082,458	24	-177,219	25	146,418	77	30,801	53
Brent	147,172	9	-25,980	62	23,414	37	2,566	44
Heating Oil	269,911	24	18,506	70	-40,612	28	22,106	75
Soybeans	651,328	17	169,065	64	-130,790	48	-38,275	6
Corn	1,251,033	8	271,873	65	-213,798	41	-58,075	11
Coffee	224,829	31	-26,745	0	24,251	100	2,494	34
Sugar	898,526	37	186,698	58	-233,144	36	46,446	65
Wheat	340,830	23	-42,014	0	45,261	100	-3,247	94

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (65 percent), Soybeans (64 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and the Lean Hogs (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.9 percent)
Sugar (58.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.5 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybeans (63.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (43.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.0 percent)
Live Cattle (72.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (79.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.7 percent)
Cotton (13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (44.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.2 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Live Cattle (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Cocoa (10 percent) and Corn (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-12 percent), Cotton (-8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-4.7 percent)
Sugar (1.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (-12.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybeans (25.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (25.7 percent)
Live Cattle (23.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (32.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-27.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.8 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.0 percent)
Cocoa (9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.3 percent)
Wheat (-2.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 271,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	44.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	61.7	14.1
– Net Position:	271,873	-213,798	-58,075
– Gross Longs:	376,732	558,706	118,719
– Gross Shorts:	104,859	772,504	176,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	41.5	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.0	-11.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	69.0	5.0
– Net Position:	186,698	-233,144	46,446
– Gross Longs:	273,666	387,186	91,248
– Gross Shorts:	86,968	620,330	44,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	36.3	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.0	4.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	55.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-26,745	24,251	2,494
– Gross Longs:	44,803	123,565	10,878
– Gross Shorts:	71,548	99,314	8,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	11.3	10.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 169,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	46.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.4	12.5
– Net Position:	169,065	-130,790	-38,275
– Gross Longs:	216,831	301,985	43,462
– Gross Shorts:	47,766	432,775	81,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	48.3	6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-23.0	-14.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	49.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	68.8	6.3
– Net Position:	59,495	-71,077	11,582
– Gross Longs:	89,394	187,762	35,188
– Gross Shorts:	29,899	258,839	23,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	55.5	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	-3.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 166,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	30.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.6	75.0	6.7
– Net Position:	166,350	-186,133	19,783
– Gross Longs:	181,071	124,549	47,680
– Gross Shorts:	14,721	310,682	27,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.3	1.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	30.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	51.6	12.5
– Net Position:	74,143	-67,709	-6,434
– Gross Longs:	126,737	95,035	32,866
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	162,744	39,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	20.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.7	-21.5	-13.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	43.0	13.1
– Net Position:	15,907	-10,939	-4,968
– Gross Longs:	63,073	74,842	21,157
– Gross Shorts:	47,166	85,781	26,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	84.2	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	21.6	32.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	55.4	5.6
– Net Position:	7,953	-9,382	1,429
– Gross Longs:	56,634	103,146	12,734
– Gross Shorts:	48,681	112,528	11,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	86.4	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.9	-3.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	27,698	-31,155	3,457
– Gross Longs:	97,065	138,394	13,026
– Gross Shorts:	69,367	169,549	9,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	56.6	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-9.4	-2.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	41.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.4	10.6
– Net Position:	-42,014	45,261	-3,247
– Gross Longs:	86,569	141,956	32,942
– Gross Shorts:	128,583	96,695	36,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	2.8	-1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

21 Jan

Stock Market Speculators cut back on their VIX bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with gains for this week was the VIX with a rise of 20,452 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Nasdaq-Mini (-12,482 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-4,787 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,869 contracts), S&P500-Mini (-13,644 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-1,471 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,106 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,056,472	4	-226,818	14	231,163	81	-4,345	25
Nikkei 225	14,138	10	-3,825	59	4,340	51	-515	22
Nasdaq-Mini	275,015	57	-20,633	64	30,544	45	-9,911	33
DowJones-Mini	82,660	46	-10,613	27	12,290	74	-1,677	32
VIX	326,900	49	-52,355	77	55,595	22	-3,240	76
Nikkei 225 Yen	37,043	14	7,971	59	-2,240	4	-5,731	68

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (77 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (59 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (14 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (16.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (29.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (63.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (34.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.2 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (15 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (8 percent), the Russell-Mini (6 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-4.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-25.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	53.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	36.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-52,355	55,595	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	53,609	176,081	28,892
– Gross Shorts:	105,964	120,486	32,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	22.1	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-15.3	3.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -226,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	73.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	62.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-226,818	231,163	-4,345
– Gross Longs:	260,337	1,518,121	234,865
– Gross Shorts:	487,155	1,286,958	239,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	81.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	4.7	-2.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	48.3	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	33.5	18.5
– Net Position:	-10,613	12,290	-1,677
– Gross Longs:	25,847	39,948	13,654
– Gross Shorts:	36,460	27,658	15,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	73.9	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-9.7	29.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	62.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	51.8	15.5
– Net Position:	-20,633	30,544	-9,911
– Gross Longs:	61,621	172,926	32,760
– Gross Shorts:	82,254	142,382	42,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	45.3	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	21.9	-2.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-62,915	59,423	3,492
– Gross Longs:	44,629	354,698	24,352
– Gross Shorts:	107,544	295,275	20,860
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	66.4	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.1	-8.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	61.2	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	30.5	24.3
– Net Position:	-3,825	4,340	-515
– Gross Longs:	2,560	8,653	2,914
– Gross Shorts:	6,385	4,313	3,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	51.4	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	13.4	-17.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	91.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	84.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-28,278	22,516	5,762
– Gross Longs:	18,717	324,872	11,276
– Gross Shorts:	46,995	302,356	5,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	86.7	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	23.7	8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

20 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 20.01.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, implying an uptrend. The RSI has risen above the resistance line. A breakaway of 8/8 (87.50) upwards should be expected, followed by growth to the resistance line of +1/8 (89.06). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level at 6/8 (84.38), which might lead to a trend reversal and falling to 4/8 (81.25).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which indicates an uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.

S&P 500

On H4, the S&P 500 index quotes has broken through the 200-day Moving Average and are now under it, which indicates probable development of a downtrend. The RSI is nearing the resistance level. As a result, a bounce off 2/8 (3906.2) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 1/8 (3828.1). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over 3/8 (3984.4). In this case, the quotes might rise to the resistance level of 4/8 (4062.5).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of further falling of the price.

Article By RoboForex.com

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