InvestMacro

On Thursday, trading on the US stock market ended in a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.20%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 1.23%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.59%. Pressure intensified in the consumer discretionary and communication services segments, where investors trimmed positions in overcrowded mega-cap stocks. Alphabet contributed to the negative trend, as its plans to sharply increase AI investments raised fresh questions about the monetization timeline for massive capital expenditures. Weakness also spread through the semiconductor sector following cautious guidance from Qualcomm, which pointed to cooling demand and inventory issues, dragging down the entire chip segment. Risk-off sentiment was reinforced by macro statistics: a rise in initial jobless claims and a sharp spike in corporate layoff announcements strengthened signals of a labor market slowdown and increased pressure on equities.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened after the Bank of Mexico decided to maintain its key interest rate at 7.00% and adopted a more cautious stance regarding future easing. The regulator pointed to intensifying inflationary risks, raised its long-term price growth prognoses, and emphasized a gradual approach for further steps, which cooled interest in carry trades and lowered expectations for sustained high real yields.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $70,000 for the first time since October 2024, losing about a quarter of its value since the start of the year amid a massive reduction in speculative positions across the risk asset spectrum. The sharp decline was accompanied by deteriorating sentiment toward digital assets, undermining their reputation as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, especially given the simultaneous drop in gold prices. Bitcoin’s vulnerability was further exacerbated by its higher share in institutional portfolios, making it sensitive to broad risk-reduction regimes following spikes in volatility and tightening margin requirements.

European equity markets declined on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.46%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.29%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.97%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) ended at 0.90%. The European Central Bank (ECB), as expected, kept rates unchanged. However, Christine Lagarde’s comments cooled easing expectations, as the regulator took a restrained stance regarding slowing inflation and the strength of the euro.

Silver prices (XAG) fell sharply, dropping to $64.1 per ounce on Friday before recovering to levels above $70 per ounce, highlighting a surge in precious metals volatility. The decline occurred amid a broad reduction in risk appetite and the deleveraging of positions, which caused silver to look weaker than other safe-haven assets. Pressure was compounded by signals of a cooling US labor market, including rising unemployment claims and significant corporate layoffs, which bolstered expectations for a Fed policy easing toward the end of the year. However, the initial investor reaction was risk-off, triggering margin selling following last week’s sharp rise. Additional uncertainty stems from the discussion of Kevin Warsh’s candidacy for Fed Chair, while easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran temporarily reduced safe-haven demand.

WTI crude oil prices reversed sharply downward on Thursday, losing more than 3% and falling toward the $63 per barrel area, erasing the gains of the previous two sessions. Pressure on quotes was driven by easing geopolitical tensions following confirmation of upcoming talks between Iran and the US, which reduced fears of supply disruptions from a key OPEC producer and diminished the Middle East risk premium.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.14%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.43%.

On Friday, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) weakened to 16,880 per dollar, nearing its recent record low amid a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. Pressure intensified after Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to “negative,” citing decreased predictability of economic policy. This move followed an MSCI warning regarding transparency issues, which previously triggered a massive capital outflow from the local market and fueled doubts about governance quality. The domestic backdrop also remained weak: 2025 economic growth fell below the government target, strengthening expectations for additional policy easing by Bank Indonesia.

On Monday, trading on the US stock market concluded with solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.05%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.56%. The growth was primarily driven by tech and growth stocks: Apple shares jumped over 3%, AMD rose nearly 5%, and Micron added over 5%. Alphabet and Amazon also traded firmly ahead of their earnings reports later this week. Oracle saw a slight correction following its recent rally linked to a $50 billion capital-raising plan, while Nvidia declined by approximately 2% amid ongoing uncertainty regarding its frozen $100 billion investment in OpenAI.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 1.05%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.67%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.31%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.15%. In the first half of the day, European stocks were under pressure due to a sharp crash in precious metals prices, which led to increased margin calls on key derivative exchanges. However, fears of systemic liquidity issues did not materialize, and the market reversed upward, showing growth across all sectors. Banking stocks were among the leaders, with Santander, UniCredit, ING, and Nordea gaining between 2-3%.

During Monday’s Asian session, silver quotes (XAG) dropped to $77 per ounce following Friday’s 30% collapse – the largest one-day decline in history, which almost entirely wiped out the year-to-date gains. Just last Thursday, silver had hit an all-time high exceeding $120 per ounce. The sharp market reversal followed reports of President Donald Trump’s intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a move market participants viewed as a signal for a more hawkish monetary policy. Despite the current decline, silver continues to find some support from a structural supply deficit and the “debasement trade,” where investors reallocate capital from currencies and bonds into physical assets amid concerns over rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and doubts about Fed independence.

WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4.5% on Monday, dropping to $62.2 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day decline in over six months. Pressure intensified after President Trump stated that Washington is in talks with Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iranian officials also signaled a readiness for dialogue, further calming investors who had priced in conflict risks. The price drop was exacerbated by a broader sell-off in commodity markets, particularly in metals.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) plummeted by 21% to $3.42 per MMBtu, completely erasing Friday’s 11% gain. This came after short-term weather prognoses shifted toward milder conditions, reducing expected demand. The market has been highly volatile; the February contract hit a three-year high last week due to storm-related production disruptions and heating demand. However, updated expectations from NOAA indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the US through mid-month, likely curbing demand for heating and power generation.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.70 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, fully meeting market expectations. This marked the first hike since November 2023 and highlighted a resurgence in inflationary pressures that intensified in late 2025 due to rising service sector costs and a tight labor market. The RBA noted that inflation is likely to remain above the 2-3% target range for some time, reflecting resilient economic dynamics.

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. By the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.36% (-0.50% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.43% (+0.23% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.28% (-0.31% for the week). Market pressure was driven by rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar after President Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors viewed this move as a signal toward a more hawkish and cautious monetary easing trajectory, triggering a rise in long-term bond yields and profit-taking in rate-sensitive assets following a strong January rally.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) retreated to 1.355 per US dollar. The weakness was linked to softer domestic economic growth signals and a rebounding US dollar, which partially offset January’s gains. Data showed that Canada’s real GDP remained unchanged in November, while the manufacturing sector recorded its third contraction in four months, indicating instability in underlying economic dynamics despite limited contributions from the service sector. This reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain a cautious approach and refrain from tightening policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to above 17.4 per US dollar, correcting after a strong monthly gain. Pressure on the currency intensified amid US dollar strengthening and a revision of interest rate expectations, which reduced the attractiveness of carry trade operations. The key trigger was the dollar’s recovery following Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed Chair. The market interpreted this as a signal for a more predictable and disciplined monetary policy, leading to higher US yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding peso positions.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.94% (-1.41% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.68% (-0.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.66% (+1.79% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.51% (+0.79% for the week). The indices were supported by fresh economic data and corporate reports. Preliminary figures showed the German economy grew by +0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations after stagnation in Q3 and a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January 2026 from a December low of 1.8%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.0%.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG) plummeted by more than 25%, dropping to $84 per ounce following aggressive profit-taking that triggered a broad pullback in precious metal prices. Geopolitical tensions remained high after President Trump signed an executive order on tariffs for goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba, increasing pressure on Mexico, and called for Iran to enter nuclear negotiations, while Tehran promised a swift response. On the monetary front, market attention focused on Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the new Fed Chair, ending months of speculation regarding future US policy.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) surged 7%, reaching $4.10 per MMBtu, driven by increased flows to LNG export plants, including the likely restart of a train at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas. Deliveries for LNG production grew for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 17.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) after recently falling to an annual low of 11.5 bcf/d due to winter storms. The price increase occurred despite expectations for milder weather and lower heating demand, as well as the recovery of production from previously frozen wells. Weather is expected to remain colder than normal until February 14, and futures showed a nearly 14% gain in January after a 23% drop the previous month.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.56% for the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased 0.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.02%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive 5-day result of 0.27%.

China’s official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 points in January 2026, compared to 50.1 in December, missing market expectations of 50. The data indicate a loss of momentum at the start of the year: weak domestic and foreign demand, along with cautious business sentiment, continue to hinder recovery amid persistent structural economic issues.

Australian 10-year government bond yields rose toward 4.81%, remaining near a more than two-year high as markets increasingly priced in rate hikes ahead of the RBA meeting. The probability of a rate hike on February 3 is currently estimated at 75%, with market participants expecting another tightening by August. This was supported by a series of strong macro data points: December inflation was higher than expectations and remains far from the 2–3% target range, unemployment fell unexpectedly, job vacancies grew at the fastest pace since February 2022, and house price growth accelerated in January, highlighting economic resilience. Against this backdrop, analysts do not rule out that 10-year yields could briefly exceed 5% in the short term.

The US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.72%. The primary pressure on the market came from a large-scale sell-off in tech stocks as investors began to reassess the valuation of AI-related companies amid a busy corporate earnings season. The hardest hit was the high-tech sector after Microsoft’s shares plummeted by 10%. The company reported a slowdown in cloud business growth alongside a sharp increase in capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, triggering a chain reaction of selling in the sector and putting heavy pressure on the Nasdaq. At the same time, individual corporate reports supported the market: Meta shares soared 10% due to a revenue prognoses that exceeded expectations, IBM added 5%, and Caterpillar rose by 3.5% following strong results.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weakened by 2.8%, dropping to $82,100 and hitting its lowest level since November 21, 2025. Market pressure was driven by several factors, the key one being a sustained capital outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. From January 20 to 26, ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.14 billion, marking the largest weekly decline in inflows since the beginning of January. The bulk of the redemptions came from major funds, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which collectively accounted for about 92% of all outflows. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest Bitcoin ETF on the market, fell behind the same management company’s Gold ETF in terms of asset volume, highlighting a shift in investor interest toward more traditional safe-haven instruments.

Equity markets in Europe traded with no single trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.10%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.17%. European stock markets ended Thursday’s session lower overall amid weak reports from several of the region’s largest companies.

In Sweden, the Riksbank’s key interest rate was left unchanged at 1.75% for the third consecutive time following the first monetary policy meeting of 2026, which was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that the rate is likely to remain at its current level for some time while the regulator assesses the impact of measures already taken, which are expected to support a recovery in economic activity and stabilize inflation.

On Friday, WTI crude oil prices declined to around $64 per barrel; however, for the month as a whole, they continue to show their best performance since July 2023, supported by a rising geopolitical premium. Investors remain cautious amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump called on Tehran to return to negotiations regarding the nuclear program. The market is particularly focused on risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a strategically vital narrow route between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies passes daily. Any escalation in the region could lead to serious disruptions in global energy flows.

On Thursday, silver (XAG) dropped more than 6%, falling to around $110 per ounce, retreating from a record high of $120 amid active profit-taking by investors following a sharp price rally. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by ongoing geopolitical tensions: Iran stated it would “defend and respond as never before” to new threats from the US.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 0.03%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.51%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.07%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to around 0.604 USD, but for the month, it maintained steady growth supported by increasing expectations of monetary policy tightening. The momentum for the “kiwi” was set by a series of strong macroeconomic data, specifically an unexpected acceleration of inflation last week, which boosted market confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may move to raise rates toward the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the currency rose to a seven-month high on Thursday. Additional support came from fresh data showing consumer confidence in January reached its highest level since August 2021, as well as a trade surplus increase that exceeded expectations.