InvestMacro

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains after a volatile session. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.17%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.09%. The main driver of optimism was the third consecutive day of declining oil prices amid reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. Diplomatic signals indicating a narrowing of differences and a potential resolution of the conflict supported the broader market, allowing the utilities, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors to lead gains despite underperformance in the energy segment. Market pressure came from a more than 7% drop in Walmart shares after the retailer warned of business risks associated with persistently high fuel costs.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.42%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.11%. Market sentiment was also restrained by weak macroeconomic data: preliminary Eurozone PMI indices reflected a noticeable slowdown in private‑sector activity due to the consequences of the conflict.

WTI crude‑oil prices reversed downward, losing more than 2% after a morning gain of 3%, reflecting heightened market volatility amid diplomatic progress in resolving the conflict with Iran. Investor optimism was supported by a statement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about encouraging signs of a possible agreement and reports of increased involvement from Pakistani mediators. In addition, Tehran’s willingness to limit exports of weapons‑grade uranium is seen as a constructive step toward meeting key US demands, reducing the risk of further escalation. Despite the current correction, oil prices remain nearly 50% above pre‑war levels, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit in the global market.

The US natural‑gas prices fell below $3.0 per MMBtu, retreating from two‑month highs. The main driver of the decline was a significant oversupply relative to current demand, confirmed by official statistics. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ending May 15, 2026, US energy companies injected 101 billion cubic feet of gas into underground storage – well above analyst expectations (95 bcf) and the five‑year seasonal average (92 bcf). As a result, total gas inventories strengthened their surplus status ahead of the summer season.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 3.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 1.47%.

The Australian stock market continued its upward momentum. A key support factor was speculation about monetary policy: the unexpected drop in employment in April (-18.6 thousand jobs) led investors to believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia may pause its rate‑hike cycle after three rounds of tightening this year. However, buying activity remains cautious ahead of next week’s release of the April Consumer Price Index. In March, inflation in Australia jumped to 4.6% year‑over‑year – the highest level since September 2023 – driven by global oil price increases due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.08%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.66%. After Wednesday’s close, the US market maintained a positive tone thanks to strong earnings from Nvidia. Nvidia’s quarterly revenue exceeded $81 billion, beating market expectations and confirming sustained high demand for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. However, the revenue outlook for the July quarter – around $91 billion – was less optimistic than some analysts expected, slightly cooling investor enthusiasm. Additional market support came from signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after reports that three supertankers managed to leave the region with full oil cargoes.

The minutes of the April meeting of the FOMC showed that most Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about persistently high inflation and believe that further monetary tightening may become necessary if price growth continues to exceed the 2% target. Markets paid particular attention to the shift in tone within the Committee: many participants supported removing language implying a bias toward future policy easing – interpreted as an additional hawkish signal. This reflects growing concern that inflationary pressure, especially related to rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, may prove more persistent than previously expected.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.99%.

On Wednesday, silver prices broke above $76 per ounce, reacting to positive signals about a potential agreement between the US and Iran. The decline in the geopolitical premium in oil prices eased concerns about long‑term inflationary pressure, reducing expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.
WTI crude‑oil futures fell sharply by more than 5%, dropping below the psychological level of $100 per barrel. The main driver of the decline was optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about the final stage of negotiations with Iran, which could lead to a rapid end to the conflict and the lifting of the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional stabilization signals came from satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait, indicating a potential easing of logistical restrictions.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped 1.26%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.71 USD, fully losing the gains of the previous session. The main disappointment for AUD buyers came from fresh Australian labor‑market data. Seasonally adjusted unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March and above analyst expectations – the highest level since November 2021. The reason was a sharp drop in employment: jobs fell by 18,600 (to 14.74 million), while the market expected an increase of 17,500. This first decline in employment in five months undermined investor confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise the cash rate to 4.6% at the June meeting.

The New Zealand dollar is holding near 0.586 USD, balancing between strong domestic data and unpredictable rhetoric from the White House. A powerful domestic driver came from fresh Stats NZ data: New Zealand’s trade surplus in April 2026 surged to an all‑time record of 1.92 billion NZD (prediction: 980 million). Exports rose 12% to 8.6 billion, driven by strong dairy, beef, and aluminum sales to the US and EU, while imports increased only 3.4% (to 6.7 billion), indicating weak domestic demand. Markets now price in a 30% probability of a rate hike at the end of May and a 90% probability of tightening in July, as the prolonged fuel crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to accelerate imported inflation.

At its May 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 5.25%, marking the first tightening since April 2024. The decision, accompanied by increases in deposit rates to 4.75% and lending rates to 6.0%, was driven by the need to support the national currency, which has fallen 2.2% since late April to 17,700 rupiah per dollar, and to curb imported‑inflation risks.

On Tuesday, US stock indices continued to decline amid the ongoing sell‑off in US Treasury bonds and rising investor concerns about inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.67%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.67%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.61%. Pressure on the market intensified due to rising bond yields, as investors fear that high energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy for longer.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.38 per US dollar amid a decline in core inflation in Canada, which strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue to take a cautious approach and will not respond to rising energy prices with policy tightening. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 2.8% in April due to higher gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, the key core inflation indicators monitored by the regulator fell more than expected, reaching their lowest levels in the past five years. This reinforced the market’s view that inflationary pressure outside the energy sector remains limited.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.07%.

WTI oil prices fell to around 103 dollars per barrel, partially pulling back after the recent rally. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Trump stated that he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran following requests from Gulf states and amid signs of a possible return to negotiations. Previously, oil had been supported by more than a week of gains driven by stalled US-Iran talks and the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil trade. An additional factor was a new US authorization allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, which added expectations of increased short‑term supply to the market.

Palladium prices (XPD) stabilized near 1,400 dollars per ounce, pausing their decline after reaching a seven‑week low. The market was supported by easing pressure on the precious metals sector after signs of possible progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. This somewhat reduced concerns about further increases in energy prices and the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates. At the same time, the fundamental situation in the palladium market remains relatively tight. Concerns about limited supply from key producers continue to support prices. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan expects that palladium prices will rise to 1,600 dollars per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.17%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened slightly to around 6.81 per dollar, partially recovering after the previous session’s decline. The Chinese currency was supported by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to keep key lending rates unchanged: the one‑year LPR remained at 3.0%, and the five‑year LPR stayed at 3.5%. This marks the twelfth consecutive month without changes, reflecting the cautious approach of Chinese authorities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

On Monday, the US stock indices closed mixed amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.07%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.45%. The main pressure on the market came from the technology sector, which was the worst performer of the day, while shares of energy, financial companies, and consumer‑staples producers rose thanks to high commodity prices and demand for safe‑haven assets.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 1.26%. Market sentiment improved amid new signals of possible diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict. Iran reported that it had sent a response to the updated US proposal for ending the war.

According to preliminary data, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, accelerating from 0.2% at the end of 2025. This was the strongest quarterly growth in the past year and indicates a steady recovery after a brief slowdown. Currency dynamics also played a role: during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, the franc traditionally strengthens as a safe‑haven asset, supporting demand for it.

WTI oil prices ended an extremely volatile session near 106 dollars per barrel, retracing most of the initial gains amid conflicting signals about a possible agreement between the US and Iran. Pressure on prices early in the session intensified after Iranian media reported that Washington had allegedly proposed a temporary easing of oil sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached. Later, prices turned upward again after Axios reported that Iran had sent an updated peace proposal, although the White House, according to media reports, considered it insufficient. Despite diplomatic signals, the market remains extremely tense, as the Strait of Hormuz is still restricted for shipping, and attacks on energy infrastructure continue to disrupt oil production and supply.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG/USD) held near 3.02 dollars per MMBtu, remaining close to their highest levels in the past seven weeks amid expectations of rising demand and ongoing production cuts. The main support for the market comes from expectations of hot weather in the southern and eastern United States, where higher temperatures are expected to increase electricity consumption for air conditioning, and thus boost gas demand from power companies. Market attention was also drawn to reports that the first shipments of US LNG since February 2025 are expected to arrive in China in June, which may signal a gradual recovery in export demand.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.45%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to around 0.71 US dollars, losing part of the previous session’s gains after signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia about rising inflation risks. RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in energy prices may lead to inflation expectations becoming anchored above the target level. In that case, the regulator may have to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than previously expected, even despite the risk of a more pronounced economic slowdown.

On Friday, US stock indices fell sharply amid growing investor concerns about the consequences of the prolonged conflict with Iran. Market participants fear that further increases in energy prices will intensify inflationary pressure and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer.
By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.07% (weekly result -0.05%). The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 1.24% (weekly result +0.31%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.54% (weekly result -0.21%). Pressure intensified due to profit‑taking in the technology sector after a prolonged rally driven by artificial intelligence.

The largest declines were seen among semiconductor and memory‑chip manufacturers: Intel shares fell by 5%, AMD dropped by 3%, and Micron Technology lost 4%. Nvidia declined about 2%. The exception was Microsoft, whose shares rose 4% after Bill Ackman announced that Pershing Square had opened a position in the company. Boeing shares continued to fall, losing another 3%, as investors reacted cautiously to Donald Trump’s statement that China intends to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, viewing the figure as only slightly above previously expected delivery volumes.

In mid‑May, the Mexican peso weakened to around 17.3 per US dollar amid a stronger US currency and rising US Treasury yields. Pressure on the peso also came from weak domestic macroeconomic data. Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.8% in the first quarter, worse than market expectations, increasing concerns about slowing economic activity. Although the Bank of Mexico previously cut the key rate to 6.5%, the regulator indicated that the easing cycle is likely nearing its end. The central bank adopted a more cautious stance due to inflation risks driven by high oil and fuel prices, which limit room for further rate cuts.
The Canadian dollar weakened slightly to around 1.37 per US dollar, extending its decline after reaching a seven‑week high at the end of April. Pressure on the Canadian currency increased amid US dollar strength following higher‑than‑expected US inflation data. Additional support for the US dollar comes from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, rising oil prices partially limit the Canadian dollar’s decline, as Canada’s economy and currency traditionally benefit from a stronger commodity sector and higher export revenues.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to around 76,000 dollars, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks amid deteriorating global risk appetite due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Another negative factor was a large capital outflow from US spot bitcoin ETFs: investors withdrew more than 1 billion dollars over the past week, marking the first weekly outflow of this magnitude since late January.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07% (weekly result -1.57%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.60% (weekly result -1.45%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.05% (weekly result -1.58%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 1.71% (weekly result -0.37%).
On Friday, WTI oil prices rose more than 4.5%, climbing to around 106 dollars per barrel, with weekly gains reaching roughly 11% amid the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market remains under severe strain due to the threat of disruptions to global oil supplies, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have yielded no results. Limited tanker movement through the strait is increasing concerns about supply shortages and supporting persistently high energy prices.

Silver (XAG/USD) fell more than 8%, dropping to 76 dollars per ounce and extending its decline for the second consecutive session amid rising concerns about accelerating US inflation and potential further monetary tightening. Pressure on the market came from fresh data showing that in April, producer prices as well as import and export prices in the US rose at the fastest pace since 2022, while consumer inflation reached its highest level since 2023. Investors link the increase in price pressure to the prolonged Middle East conflict and ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which support high energy prices.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.99% (weekly result -2.84%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 1.05% (weekly result -1.39%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.62% (weekly result -1.32%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.11% (weekly result -0.68%).
On Monday, Chinese stock indices closed with moderate gains. The market was supported by the technology sector, which offset pressure from weak macroeconomic data. The top performers were companies linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors. At the same time, China’s economic data increased concerns about slowing domestic activity. Retail sales growth in April slowed sharply to 0.2% year‑over‑year, the weakest result since December 2022. Industrial production also slowed to 4.1%, the lowest level since July 2023, while the unemployment rate improved slightly, falling to 5.2% from March’s 5.4%, the lowest in three months.

Hong Kong’s economy grew by 5.9% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, confirming preliminary estimates and accelerating from a revised 4% increase in the previous quarter. This was the strongest pace of expansion since Q2 2021. The main drivers were resilient domestic demand, rising consumer spending, and increased investment activity. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 2.9%, the fastest growth in nearly five years. Against this backdrop, authorities maintained their 2026 growth prognosis in the range of 2.5-3.5%.

On Thursday, the US stock market closed higher. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.75%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.77%. The technology index Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 0.88%. The main driver of growth was once again the artificial‑intelligence sector: shares of Cisco Systems jumped 13.4% after raising its revenue and profit outlook, and Nvidia surged 4.4%, extending its monthly gain to 15% after the US allowed shipments of H200 chips to ten Chinese companies.

Additional support for markets came from optimism ahead of the US-China summit in Beijing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the two sides are discussing accelerated approval of certain Chinese investment deals, as well as a possible reduction of tariffs on several non‑critical goods. Investors expect that negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will help ease global trade tensions and support further growth in the technology sector, despite ongoing pressure from high interest rates and geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, European stock indices posted solid gains for the second consecutive day amid strong corporate earnings and improving sentiment around the US-China summit. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.32%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.93%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.83%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.46%. Technology companies led the gains, as positive signals from talks between US tech‑sector leaders and the Chinese delegation strengthened expectations of further demand growth for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. Against this backdrop, ASML shares jumped 5.5%, and Infineon rose 3%. Siemens also supported the market, with its shares rising 2.6% after strong financial results and positive forecasts.

On Thursday, WTI oil prices held near 100 dollars per barrel as market participants continued to assess the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the results of negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to reports from Iran, around 30 vessels passed through the strait in recent hours, and Tehran began allowing transit of some Chinese ships, which slightly eased concerns about a full blockade of the key oil‑supply route. Despite signs of limited progress, fundamental risks for the market remain high. The International Energy Agency reported that in the first quarter, oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day and warned that a severe global supply deficit may persist at least until October, even if the conflict ends next month.

The US natural‑gas prices rose to 2.92 dollars per MMBtu, hitting a seven‑week high as the market continued to react to reduced production and moderate storage‑injection rates. According to the EIA, 85 billion cubic feet of gas were injected into storage during the week ending May 8, matching analyst expectations, below last year’s level of 109 billion cubic feet, and only slightly above the five‑year average. Additional support came from declining production volumes: several producers, including EQT, reduced activity amid persistently low spot prices, resulting in daily output at its lowest level in 15 weeks.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.98%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.12%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.72 US dollars, retreating from its recent four‑year high and showing a weekly decline of about 0.6% amid broad US dollar strength. The US dollar is supported by persistently high energy prices and ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In Australia, the Reserve Bank (RBA) has already raised rates three times since the beginning of the year in response to inflationary pressure caused by the global energy crisis linked to the Middle East conflict. Markets now estimate the probability of another rate hike by August at around 80%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.586 US dollars and is heading toward a weekly decline amid weak manufacturing‑sector data. The manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 52.8 a month earlier, reaching a seven‑month low. Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) cautious stance following the economy’s recent exit from recession, markets continue to price in the likelihood of further tightening amid rising inflation risks. The probability of a rate hike at the end of the month is estimated at around 40%, while a July increase is already almost fully priced in.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices mostly rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updating historical highs amid the ongoing rally in the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.58%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.04%. The main driver of growth once again was shares of processor and memory‑chip manufacturers, which remain key beneficiaries of the global boom surrounding artificial intelligence and investments in AI infrastructure.

Shares of Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple strengthened significantly, supporting the rise of the so‑called “Magnificent Seven.” Additional optimism came from US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, joined by the heads of major American technology companies. Markets expect that the upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may lead to new trade agreements, especially in the strategically important semiconductor sector, which could ease tensions in the technological standoff between the US and China.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.35%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.58%. The market was supported by strong corporate earnings and investor optimism ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, which helped offset persistent concerns about the conflict with Iran and high energy prices.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices held near 102 dollars per barrel, trimming part of their intraday losses after a rapid increase of more than 7% over the previous three sessions, as tensions in the Middle East and the rapid decline in global inventories continued to support the market. According to the IEA, global oil stocks fell by about 4 million barrels per day in March and April, while Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its production had dropped to the lowest level since 1990. The agency warned that the market may remain in a state of severe supply shortage at least until October, even if the conflict between the US and Iran ends in the coming months. Additional support for prices came from US data showing a 4.3‑million‑barrel decline in crude inventories last week – almost twice as strong as market expectations.

The US natural gas prices rose to 2.87 dollars per MMBtu, once again approaching their highest levels in more than six weeks amid ongoing production cuts and improved demand expectations. The market is supported by declining US gas output, as several energy companies, including EQT, have reduced production due to a prolonged period of low spot prices, aiming to ease oversupply pressure.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.84%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.15%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.46%. In Australia, investor sentiment was pressured by warnings in the federal budget for 2026, where authorities pointed to serious risks associated with the ongoing fuel crisis and high energy prices. The market fears that the proposed support measures may be insufficient to fully protect the economy from the effects of the external inflation shock.

Investors expect a reduction in geopolitical tensions and hope for possible stabilization of bilateral relations ahead of the Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit in Beijing. Additional support for the market came from the overall rise in Asian exchanges, where technology companies once again led the gains.

The US market ended the session with a moderate decline, although by the close, the main indices had managed to significantly reduce their intraday losses. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.16%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.71%. The US market ended the session with a moderate decline, although by the close, the main indices had managed to significantly reduce their intraday losses. Investor sentiment was pressured by the April US inflation report, which heightened concerns that high energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East could worsen corporate profits and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer. Against this backdrop, shares of major technology companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla, came under pressure, although Nvidia and Apple managed to close higher. Additional pressure hit the semiconductor sector after reports that South Korea is considering introducing a universal dividend tax, which worsened sentiment around companies linked to artificial‑intelligence infrastructure.

On Tuesday, European stock markets fell sharply amid rising concerns about an energy crisis and increasing inflationary pressure. The failure of negotiations between the US and Iran heightened risks of further escalation and another spike in oil and gas prices, which is particularly painful for the European economy, heavily dependent on energy imports. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.95%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.56%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 0.04%. Additional pressure on markets came from accelerating US inflation and political instability in the UK, which triggered a rise in European government‑bond yields and worsened investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May rose to 10.2 points, significantly exceeding market expectations and recovering from a more than three‑year low, although the indicator remains in negative territory due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The weakest performance came from the financial and technology sectors. Shares of Banco Santander, BNP Paribas, and ING Group fell sharply amid rising borrowing costs.

On Tuesday, WTI crude prices rose sharply and approached 102 dollars per barrel amid growing fears that the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz may last much longer than markets previously expected. Additional upward momentum came from statements by Donald Trump that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on “artificial life support,” after Washington rejected Tehran’s new proposal. Investors fear that the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and LNG shipments, may persist for an extended period, continuing to create a severe supply deficit in the global energy market.
In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.36%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.72 US dollars but continues to hold near four‑year highs, as investors still expect further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) amid persistent inflation and high energy prices. The budget for the 2026/27 fiscal year includes deficit reduction and changes to housing taxation, but the main responsibility for containing inflation effectively remains with the central bank. Markets estimate the probability of a June rate hike to 4.35% at around 20%, while the probability of a further increase to 4.6% in August already exceeds 80%.

A Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey showed rising inflation expectations among businesses in the second quarter of 2026. Expected inflation for the next two years rose to 2.53% from 2.37% a quarter earlier, reaching its highest level since late 2023. The main factor remains rising fuel prices, which are expected to continue increasing price pressure in the economy. Respondents also expect further monetary tightening: the expectations for the official cash rate (OCR) suggest an increase to 2.34% by the end of June and to 3.01% over the next year. The data strengthen expectations of a more hawkish stance from the RBNZ ahead of the May rate meeting. Additional investor attention is focused on New Zealand’s upcoming 2026 budget, which will be presented on May 28. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirmed the government’s intention to return the budget to surplus by 2028-2029 and reduce public debt to 40% of GDP.

On Monday, US stock markets rose moderately. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.19%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.19%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.10%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ once again renewed historical highs thanks to strong growth in semiconductor stocks amid ongoing optimism around demand related to the development of artificial intelligence. Among the top gainers were major technology companies and chip manufacturers. Shares of Micron Technology rose particularly sharply, supported by expectations of a memory‑market shortage due to supply issues and labor disputes among competitors. The energy, industrial, and materials sectors also showed solid performance.

European stock indices ended the session lower for the third consecutive day amid continued pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and related risks to global energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.36%. Market pressure intensified after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington had rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal for resolving the conflict. This increased investor concerns about further escalation and prolonged disruptions to oil and gas exports from the region. The consumer‑goods sector, which is sensitive to geopolitical risks, showed the weakest performance.

WTI oil prices continued to rise, climbing toward 98 dollars per barrel after statements by US President Donald Trump that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran remains extremely unstable. This heightened market fears of possible escalation and the risk of a larger war that could lead to further disruptions in oil supplies from the region. Additional pressure came from the US refusal to accept Iran’s counterproposal for a peace settlement, which reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic resolution. The near‑complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to severely disrupt global supplies of crude oil, LNG, and petroleum products, supporting rising energy prices and intensifying inflation risks.

On Tuesday, silver prices (XAG) fell to 85 dollars per ounce, losing part of the gains achieved earlier in the trading session. The market came under pressure from persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which support high oil prices and increase inflation concerns. Despite the current decline, silver remains one of the leaders among precious metals. The day before, prices rose more than 7%, reaching a two‑month high. The market is supported not only by demand for safe‑haven assets but also by expectations of rising industrial consumption of silver, given its wide use in manufacturing and high‑tech industries.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to 2.92 dollars per MMBtu, reaching the highest level in more than six weeks amid reduced production and the restoration of the liquefaction line at the Freeport LNG export terminal. The market is supported by the ongoing decline in production across the 48 US states. Several major producers, including EQT, have reduced output in recent weeks due to low spot prices, gradually tightening supply in the domestic market.
In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.49%.

The Business Confidence Index from the NAB showed that Australia’s economy continues to face serious pressure from high energy prices and tight monetary policy. Although the confidence indicator in April rose slightly to 24 below zero from the record‑weak 29 below zero a month earlier, business conditions deteriorated to one of the lowest levels since 2020, indicating a slowdown in activity, reduced investment, and worsening business expectations.

On Friday, the US stock indices once again renewed their record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03% (weekly result +0.39%). The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.84% (weekly result +2.36%). The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.71% (weekly result +2.35%). The markets were supported by strong US labor‑market data: the number of new jobs in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Over the week, all major indices showed solid growth, supported by strong corporate earnings and the ongoing rally in technology stocks.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to around 1.37 per US dollar, continuing its decline after reaching late‑April highs. Pressure on the currency came from weak Canadian labor‑market data: employment unexpectedly fell, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in six months. This strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will focus on supporting the economy and avoid tightening monetary policy in the near future. The hawkish tone of Banxico is linked to rising inflation risks amid high energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to around 17.2 per US dollar, approaching its highest levels in nearly two years after signals from the Bank of Mexico about the end of the rate‑cutting cycle. The regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, although part of the market expected more aggressive easing. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near future.

On Friday, European stock markets continued to decline for the second session in a row amid a new wave of tensions between the US and Iran, which increased concerns about disruptions to Europe’s energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.32% (weekly result +0.26%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.09% (weekly result -0.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.95% (weekly result +0.34%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 0.43% (weekly result -1.38%). Key European indices finished in negative territory as reports of attacks on tankers and military vessels undermined investor hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

On Friday, WTI oil prices remained around $95 per barrel, showing almost no change, as new clashes between the US and Iran increased doubts about the durability of the current ceasefire and reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic settlement. Despite this, oil still fell by about 7% for the week. The main factor for the market remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which has been operating under severe restrictions since late February, disrupting global oil supplies and intensifying the supply deficit.

Platinum prices (XPT) held above $2000 per ounce, remaining near their highest levels since late April, as the ongoing supply deficit continued to support the market despite rising inflation risks due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz once again cast doubt on the stability of the current ceasefire and increased concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.19% (weekly result +3.60%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.90% (weekly result -0.88%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.87% (weekly result +0.98%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.51% (weekly result +0.22%).
On Monday, the offshore yuan was holding at 6.79 per dollar, which is the strongest level for the Chinese currency since February 2023. The market is positively assessing the resilience of China’s economy: despite the logistics crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, exports in April surged by 14.1% to a record 359.44 billion dollars, while imports, driven by strong domestic demand and semiconductor purchases, jumped by 25.3%. Domestic indicators also signal a revival – consumer inflation (CPI) reached 1.2%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained in positive territory at 2.8%, indicating a recovery in industrial activity. All global market attention is now focused on Beijing, where the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit will take place on May 14-15. Investors expect the leaders to agree on a “roadmap” for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, discuss the status of Taiwan, and lay the foundation for a new trade agreement that may include a dialogue on AI security.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened again to a two‑month high near 0.596 US dollars, recovering after a decline in the previous session. Employment statistics in New Zealand, published earlier, did not give markets a clear signal and barely changed rate expectations. Investors still assess the probability of a near‑term rate hike as moderate, although a July tightening is already priced in due to rising inflation risks from expensive energy.
In Australia, markets currently assess the probability of a June rate hike by the Reserve Bank (RBA) as low after a series of previous increases. At the same time, expectations of further tightening by the end of the summer remain fairly high, and the projected peak rate is almost fully priced in. The Australian dollar held around 0.72 US dollars after declining in the previous session.