InvestMacro

The US equity indices ended Friday’s session mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.46% on the day (‑0.40% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.05% (‑1.03% for the week). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed in negative territory at 1.15% (‑2.57% for the week).

The current week will be one of the most event‑packed and critical periods of the corporate earnings season and macroeconomic calendar. Investor attention will center on quarterly results from major technology companies: Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. In addition, Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford Motor Company, PayPal, and other key corporates will release their financial results.

Equally important will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the future trajectory of monetary policy. The US macro data block includes the advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth (expected at 2.3% annualized, supported by AI‑related investment, consumer activity, and the World Cup effect), as well as June personal income and spending figures. Additional releases include the core inflation gauge – the PCE Price Index – durable goods orders, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, labor‑market data, and trade statistics.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to around 17.48 per US dollar. The new US tariffs of 10-12.5%, affecting roughly 60 countries, largely bypassed Mexico’s exports. Goods meeting USMCA rules of origin remain fully exempt, while products outside the preferential regime face a minimal 10% tariff (versus 12.5% for countries without trade agreements).

European indices closed higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 1.36% (+1.33% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.88% (+0.67% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) advanced 1.65% (+2.28% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.91% (+1.28% for the week). This week’s European market dynamics will be shaped by central‑bank decisions, key macro releases, and corporate earnings. The Bank of England (BoE) meets on Thursday and is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75%, with investors parsing the statement for clues on future moves. In the Eurozone, highlights include the preliminary Q2 GDP print, with expectations to show modest 0.2% growth driven by Spain, France, Germany, and Italy, as well as July inflation and unemployment data. Headline inflation is expected to tick up to 2.9%, unemployment to remain at 6.2%, and Germany’s Ifo business climate to improve for a third consecutive month. Corporate earnings from AstraZeneca, LVMH, Unilever, L’Oréal, Hermès International, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Linde will also influence sentiment.

Crude oil prices fell by 3% on Friday and another 3% on Monday, sliding to around $83 per barrel amid reports of diplomatic initiatives by Pakistan and China aimed at restarting the US-Iran negotiations. Beijing’s involvement – driven by concerns over economic interests and shipping stability in the Strait of Hormuz – boosted hopes of easing tensions. Despite the pullback, oil prices gained roughly 8% over the week amid persistent geopolitical confrontation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped sharply by 2.73% on Friday (‑2.61% for the week). China’s FTSE China A50 fell 1.04% (+1.17% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.98% (+0.52% for the week), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 0.75% (‑0.57% for the week).

China’s economic outlook this week will be shaped by the July Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping, where policymakers will outline the key economic priorities for the second half of the year, with targeted support measures expected instead of broad stimulus. Markets will also assess official manufacturing and services PMIs and industrial‑profit data. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan meeting, where policy settings are expected to remain unchanged after June’s rate hike; investors will watch for signals on future steps amid a projected acceleration in Tokyo core inflation to 1.8%. Australia’s calendar features June CPI, expected to rise to 4.1%, a key input for the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its August rate decision.

The US stock indices ended Thursday’s session with a notable decline amid a worsening macroeconomic backdrop and growing investor doubts about the profitability of large‑scale investments in artificial intelligence. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.97%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.21%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Wednesday in the red at 2.15%. Corporate earnings triggered massive sell‑offs: Alphabet shares fell by 6.9% due to a sharp upward revision of its capital‑expenditure projections, while Tesla shares plunged by 14.5% amid a drop in quarterly profit. The wave of selling also affected other giants, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Broadcom, and Oracle.

Additional pressure on the market came from the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. The escalation of the maritime blockade in the Middle East triggered a new spike in oil prices and a rise in Treasury yields, intensifying concerns about renewed inflationary pressure.

European indices closed Thursday lower. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.64%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.73%. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected. The regulator noted that energy‑price expectations generally align with June estimates but warned that uncertainty remains high and that the full impact of the recent energy shock on inflation is still ahead. ECB leadership emphasized that it will continue monitoring the scale and consequences of this shock, while the ongoing conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in oil prices intensify inflation concerns.

Crude‑oil prices (WTI) on Thursday posted a powerful surge, rising more than 6% and surpassing $92 per barrel. Prices have been rising for five consecutive sessions, reaching their highest level since early June amid a sharp escalation of military conflict in the Middle East and the threat of large‑scale disruptions to global energy supplies. The new wave of tensions was triggered by strong statements from US President Donald Trump, who blamed Iran for Yemeni Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Washington threatened Tehran and the militants with a harsh military response, and the US leader announced that a large‑scale strike on Iran was under consideration. These threats followed Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers as part of their declared blockade of Saudi ports.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG) rose to $2.92 per MMBtu, reaching a two‑week high amid expectations of hotter‑than‑normal weather through August 7, which traditionally boosts electricity demand for air‑conditioning systems. However, the upside potential was limited by a fresh report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to the agency, gas inventories increased by 32 billion cubic feet in the week ending July 17, exceeding the five‑year average of 30 billion and remaining 6.4% above the five‑year norm, indicating sufficient supply in the market.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 increased by 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.18%. Asian stock markets on Friday posted a broad decline following a sharp sell‑off on Wall Street, triggered by investor doubts about the profitability of major AI‑related investments. The steepest drops were recorded in Japan and South Korea, where technology‑heavy indices came under serious pressure, particularly among major semiconductor manufacturers. An additional negative factor was the introduction by the US of new import tariffs of 10-12.5% on goods from most key trading partners, replacing the expiring global 10% tariff. This revived concerns about the outlook for global trade, despite the absence of retaliatory measures from Asian governments.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell below $0.698 on Friday, heading toward its first weekly decline in a month amid global U.S. dollar strength, escalating geopolitical risks, and new trade barriers. The surge in Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel following Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and US President Donald Trump’s threats toward Iran sharply intensified inflation concerns. Additional pressure on markets came from the introduction of new US import tariffs against 60 partner countries, reinforcing investor expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates worldwide.

The US equities ended Wednesday’s session lower amid investor caution ahead of the start of big‑tech earnings season. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.01%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.14%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Wednesday in the red at 0.57%. Software developers and major tech platforms came under the most pressure ahead of Alphabet’s earnings release (-1.5%): Microsoft shares fell by 1.9%, and Meta by 2.6%. Meanwhile, chipmakers managed to partially recover recent losses: Nvidia shares rose by 2.3%, Broadcom by 2.7%, and AMD by 1.4%.

European indices closed Wednesday with confident gains. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.89%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.24%.

Palladium (XPD) prices consolidated above $1,200 per ounce, recovering after falling to nearly a one‑year low recorded at the end of June. The main driver of the rebound was steady demand for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs): major automakers are actively implementing software‑defined technologies in hybrids, supporting high palladium consumption in catalytic converters.

Crude‑oil prices (WTI) on Wednesday tested a six‑week high at $88.6 per barrel before correcting to $86.5 under the influence of inventory data. Markets continue to price in significant risks to global supply due to the Middle East conflict, which is hindering fuel exports from Gulf countries. The situation is further inflamed by strong statements from US Secretary of State Rubio, who accused Tehran of violating commitments and demanded guarantees of shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran’s abandonment of nuclear ambitions and support for proxy groups. Additional concern among traders is caused by Houthi threats in the Red Sea.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 declined by 0.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.34%. Asian stock markets on Thursday showed mostly upward dynamics, supported by a rally in the semiconductor sector. The driver for growth was statements from major US tech giants about plans to maintain high investment volumes in AI infrastructure. Market participants were encouraged by Alphabet’s massive capital‑expenditure plans, with the company intending to invest up to $205 billion this year, strengthening the outlook for regional chip and equipment suppliers.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened above $0.70, reaching a five‑week high on the back of strong labor‑market data, which fueled expectations of further hawkish action from the Reserve Bank of Australia. In June, employment increased by 76,300 people – the largest gain since April last year and significantly above analyst expectations – while the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, and labor‑force participation reached a yearly high of 67%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, diverging from market expectations of a 25‑basis‑point hike. Recall that at the two previous meetings, the regulator consistently raised the rate to support the rupiah and attract capital, resulting in a cumulative increase of 100 basis points since May – the highest level since April 2025. The current decision to pause is explained by the desire to simultaneously contain external risks and support national economic growth. The macroeconomic backdrop at the time of the meeting was characterized by an acceleration of annual inflation in June to 3.34% from 3.08% in May, bringing the indicator close to the upper boundary of the regulator’s target range of 1.5%-3.5%.

The US stock indices ended Tuesday with confident gains, fully driven by a powerful rebound in the semiconductor sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.74%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.89%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday in the green at 1.93%. Against this backdrop, the “chip” segment became the leader of the rally: Micron shares surged by 12.2%, Sandisk by 14.3%, AMD by 8.1%, and Intel added 8.6% on news of upcoming staff reductions. Nvidia shares rose by 2% thanks to reports of deliveries of the latest chip models to clients. The market demonstrated this growth ahead of Alphabet’s quarterly report, from which investors expect key signals regarding investments in AI infrastructure, despite the fact that shares of the search giant fell by 1.4%.

Bitcoin rose to $66,000, reaching a five‑week high at the end of July. The driver of growth was the return of institutional optimism: US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $75.7 million last week. This is already the second consecutive week of inflows after nearly two months of continuous outflows, strengthening market hopes for the formation of a price bottom.

European indices closed Tuesday higher. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.66%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.28%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.58%. The ongoing US strikes and the resulting rise in oil prices are forcing investors to price in two additional ECB rate hikes by December, including the almost fully priced‑in tightening in September. At the upcoming meeting this week, however, the regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged as it assesses the impact of the June hike.

Crude‑oil prices (WTI) continued their confident rise, increasing by 2.6% to around $84.7 per barrel and reaching their highest level since mid‑June. Prices have shown positive dynamics for the third consecutive session amid escalating US-Iran tensions, which have turned into a continuous series of strikes by Washington and harsh statements from US leadership following the deaths of American service members. Additional pressure on the energy market comes from new logistical incidents and threats to maritime transport. Reports of an attack on another oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea announced by Yemen’s Houthis have already forced some tankers to change routes or turn back.

Palladium prices stabilized around $1,260 per ounce, correcting after recent gains amid escalating US-Iran tensions. The new wave of instability – reflected in statements by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps about strikes on US targets and the Houthi‑announced maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia – triggered a jump in Brent crude prices to monthly highs and intensified overall inflation concerns. At the same time, further declines in palladium are limited by the fundamental factor of supply shortages, as South African producers continue to face high operating costs and rising electricity tariffs. Since the beginning of the year, palladium has remained down 22.81%.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 3.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 rose by 2.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed Tuesday up 0.02%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) consolidated at 0.582, holding near a six‑week high amid persistent expectations of tight monetary policy. The release of Q2 inflation data – which accelerated to 4.1%, exceeding both market expectations and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1-3% – continues to serve as the main driver for the national currency. Swap markets are pricing in the inevitability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike in September, and also projecting continued tightening in October, December, and February.

Hong Kong’s annual inflation rate in May 2026 increased to 2.0% compared to 1.7% a month earlier, reaching its highest level since April of the previous year. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in June 2026 remained unchanged, maintaining zero dynamics for the second consecutive month.

The US stock indices started the week on a downbeat note. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.59%. The S&P 500 index (US500) declined by 0.19%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Monday in the red at 0.05%. Rising energy prices pushed Treasury yields higher, as market participants began pricing in a more likely Fed rate hike by year‑end due to inflation risks. As a result, traditional sectors came under pressure, including banking – where JPMorgan and Bank of America ended the session lower – as well as the industrial segment represented by Applied Materials. Against this backdrop, the technology sector, especially semiconductor manufacturers, showed signs of recovery after the recent sell‑off. Investors appear to be reassessing expectations regarding hyperscalers’ spending on AI infrastructure, allowing shares of Broadcom, Micron, AMD, and Intel to close higher. Notably, Alphabet shares rose 1.5% ahead of Wednesday’s important corporate‑guidance update, which could set the tone for the entire tech sector for the rest of the week.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.41 per US dollar, correcting after recently reaching a one‑month high. The key pressure factor was the June inflation report, which showed annual inflation slowing to 2.8% from May’s 3.2%, below market expectations of 2.9%. The main contributor to this decline was slower fuel‑price growth, while core inflation indicators – the metrics closely watched by the Bank of Canada – fell to a five‑year low.

European indices closed Monday without a unified trend. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.05%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.71%. The main restraining factor remains rising geopolitical tension: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for LNG tankers triggered a new spike in natural‑gas prices in Europe, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing investors to revise ECB rate‑path expectations toward tightening. The most severe blow was taken by Ryanair, whose shares plunged 5.2% after the sharp rise in jet‑fuel prices negatively affected quarterly profit metrics, highlighting the airline’s direct vulnerability to the current energy crisis.

The oil market remains tense: prices WTI are holding at a five‑week high around $82 per barrel, as investors attempt to assess the reliability of diplomatic initiatives amid real threats to supply chains. Despite reports of a possible 10‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, the market continues to react sharply to the Houthi‑initiated shipping blockade and actual disruptions to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing prices from declining significantly.
On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was closed, China’s FTSE China A50 rose by 2.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.06%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to a four‑week high near $0.70, supported by global growth in energy‑related risks. The ongoing tenth consecutive day of conflict between the US and Iran, as well as the Houthi‑announced maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, triggered a spike in oil prices. Amid the threat of large‑scale disruptions to energy supplies, inflation concerns intensified, prompting markets to price in an 80% probability of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) by December, in addition to the already completed three‑step tightening cycle to 4.35%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to $0.586, holding near a seven‑week high amid strong domestic data. Annual inflation in Q2 accelerated to 4.1%, exceeding both market projections and the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and significantly surpassing the target range of 1-3%. This reading was the highest since late 2023 and confirmed the need for further measures to cool the economy. In response to the inflation spike, swap markets are pricing in the inevitability of a rate hike in September, and also expecting additional tightening in October, December, and February next year.

The US stock indices ended Friday’s session in the red. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.77% (weekly: -1.01%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.01% (weekly: -1.19%). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the red at 1.49% (weekly: -2.98%). The main driver of the sell‑off was the semiconductor sector, where investors began to doubt the sustainability of capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, additionally fearing competition from new Chinese developments such as Moonshot’s Kimi model. Shares of key industry players, including Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Intel, posted solid declines, marking a correction after a significant rally earlier this year.

Preliminary University of Michigan data for July 2026 indicated a noticeable improvement in consumer sentiment, which rose to 54.4 points, significantly exceeding market expectations. Nevertheless, current sentiment levels remain 12% below last year’s readings, as overall inflationary pressure continues to burden household budgets.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions continue to pressure market sentiment. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have triggered rising fuel prices, once again raising concerns about inflation risks. The situation is further complicated by political rhetoric: President Trump’s accusations against China regarding the 2020 election have undermined the stability of trade relations.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.52 per dollar, correcting after recent strengthening to 17.40 amid a global rise in risk aversion. Investors prefer the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The situation for the national currency is further complicated by weak May industrial‑production figures, which showed a broad‑based decline, indicating signs of slowing economic activity in the country.

European indices closed Friday higher. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.34% (weekly: -0.53%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.47% (weekly: +0.39%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.45% (weekly: -0.46%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.27% (weekly: +0.97%). European stock indices ended Friday’s session with notable declines, reflecting global investor pessimism about the outlook for the artificial‑intelligence sector. As a result, shares of giants such as ASML and Siemens posted significant losses. Geopolitical tensions and rising natural‑gas prices created additional pressure on the banking sector, intensifying concerns about inflation risks and declining credit activity.

Crude‑oil prices (WTI) reached a monthly high, surpassing $84 per barrel amid rapid escalation of the Middle East conflict. Over the week, oil prices surged more than 14% after Iran’s retaliatory strikes on targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Syria in response to a series of US attacks. The situation is complicated by reports of damage to a power plant and desalination facility in Kuwait, as well as Tehran’s threats to deploy Houthi forces to block the Red Sea if strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure occur.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell sharply by 4.03% (weekly: -6.24%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 3.33% (weekly: -2.83%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.78% (weekly: +1.67%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.50% (weekly: 0.0%).

Hong Kong’s labor market showed resilience in Q2 2026: the unemployment rate remained at a ten‑month low of 3.7%. Overall employment improved: an influx of labor resources increased total employment to 3.6 million people, while the number of unemployed decreased by 1,400.

The offshore yuan (CNY) on Monday held near 6.77 per dollar, staying close to weekly lows amid geopolitical instability and Beijing’s monetary decisions. Market sentiment remains highly sensitive to Middle East escalation: after new US airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, Tehran officially announced its withdrawal from the ceasefire with Washington, increasing global uncertainty. Domestically, the People’s Bank of China maintained stability, keeping the one‑year and five‑year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. The regulator has kept them at record lows for 14 consecutive months despite mixed macroeconomic indicators in Q2.

The New Zealand (NZD) dollar shows confidence, reaching a six‑week high at $0.585. The main driver of growth is market expectations ahead of the upcoming CPI report. Projections indicate that annual inflation in Q2 may reach or exceed 4%, a two‑year high, largely due to rising fuel costs. Such an inflation spike virtually guarantees continued tightening by the Reserve Bank.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.38%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Wednesday in the green at 0.62%. On Wednesday, the US stock market showed mixed dynamics: optimism about slowing inflation, supported by Producer‑price Index data, helped the S&P 500 and Dow Jones close higher. The statistics confirmed moderate price pressure, reducing expectations of further Fed rate hikes and allowing the market to ignore geopolitical risks linked to energy commodities.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to a one‑month high, reaching 1.40 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada decided to keep its key rate at 2.25%. The regulator adopted a fairly hawkish stance, pointing to signs of economic recovery and raising inflation expectations for the current year. This rhetoric convinced investors that borrowing costs will remain high for an extended period, supporting the national currency. An additional factor was external conditions, particularly the weakening of the US dollar following US producer‑price data that came in below expectations.

European indices mostly declined on Wednesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.59%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.13%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) stabilized near $80 per barrel, holding at monthly highs due to a sharp escalation in the Persian Gulf. The US military campaign aimed at protecting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz entered a phase of intensive airstrikes on Iran’s missile depots and launch sites. The situation is further complicated by the potential expansion of the conflict’s geography: the Trump administration’s discussion of a scenario involving the seizure of the key export terminal on Kharg Island creates critical risks for global energy supplies.

Platinum prices (XPT) reached a three‑week high, rising to $1,670 per ounce. The main catalyst was the weakening of the US dollar to a one‑month low, triggered by weak inflation data that virtually eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate hike this month. The cheaper dollar increased the attractiveness of platinum as a commodity asset. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the platinum market is supported by a persistent fundamental supply deficit, now in its fourth consecutive year.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed up 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.12%. On Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index showed strong growth, adding 1.3%. The positive dynamics were driven by an overall improvement in global risk appetite after the release of unexpectedly weak US producer‑price inflation, which significantly eased concerns about price pressure. Against this backdrop, market participants continued reallocating capital into Hong Kong‑listed equities, ignoring weaker‑than‑expected macroeconomic data from mainland China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) remains resilient, holding near $0.70 and consolidating at three‑week highs. The currency is effectively offsetting geopolitical pressure caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the subsequent spike in energy prices. The main driver of the current exchange rate remains US dollar weakness. Domestic factors in Australia also support current market sentiment: inflation expectations continue to decline, falling in July to a six‑month low of 4.7%. Despite this, traders remain cautious in expecting further steps by the Reserve Bank of Australia, pricing in only a 20% probability of an August rate hike.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) consolidated near a six‑week high at $0.584, supported by expectations of continued tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Market participants project that, following the recent rate increase, the regulator will act again in September, aiming to bring the official rate to 3.0% by year‑end. An additional support factor is the overall weakness of the US dollar, which is near a one‑month low as investors reassess expectations regarding Fed aggressiveness.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices finished the session in the green, supported by encouraging inflation data that reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this month. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.02%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.38%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday in the green at 1.10%. Investor optimism outweighed concerns related to rising energy prices amid the US-Iran conflict, allowing the technology and financial sectors to show a confident recovery.

The semiconductor sector recovered a significant portion of the previous day’s losses: shares of Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom closed higher. The banking sector showed mixed dynamics: JPMorgan and Bank of America rose following earnings releases, while Goldman Sachs jumped 9% after reporting better‑than‑expected financial results; meanwhile, Citi faced a sell‑off, losing 5.3%. A sharp contrast came from IBM shares, which fell 25.2% – the company missed expectations and warned of constrained client spending, as businesses are currently concentrating investments on chip and memory components.

In his testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank leadership’s firm determination to restore price stability and prevent persistently high inflation. He expressed confidence that, with the right policy course, the five‑year period of elevated inflationary pressure will remain in the past. The head of the regulator described the current state of the US economy as resilient, noting moderate growth in consumer spending and stable increases in manufacturing output.

European indices closed higher on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed strongly at 2.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.30%. The positive dynamics followed the release of US inflation data, which came in below forecasts. This led to a decline in sovereign‑bond yields, easing financing conditions for major European corporations and restoring optimism across regional markets. The banking sector reacted with gains of more than 1% in BNP Paribas, ING, and Deutsche Bank. At the same time, energy companies such as Schneider and Siemens Energy strengthened, supported by renewed interest in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure.

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) held above $79 per barrel amid escalating military confrontation: the US carried out additional airstrikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran claimed responsibility for an attack on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite overall tensions, prices retreated from daily highs after President Donald Trump announced he would not impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait under US protection. Instead of direct tariff collection, Washington intends to replace these revenues with new trade and investment deals with Middle Eastern partners.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed up 2.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed at its opening price. On Wednesday, the Chinese stock market showed mixed dynamics. Investors reacted to ambiguous macroeconomic data: GDP growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3% year‑on‑year, below market expectations (4.5%) and the lower bound of the government’s target range (4.5-5.0%). This was the lowest reading since Q4 2022. Another concerning signal was the acceleration of fixed‑asset investment decline to 5.7% in the first half of the year. However, the report also contained positive indicators: industrial production growth in June accelerated to 5.3%, retail sales unexpectedly rose by 1%, and the urban unemployment rate fell to a yearly low of 5.0%.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29% (weekly: -0.36%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42% (weekly: +0.91%). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the green at 0.33% (weekly: +0.84%). On Friday, US equity markets ended the week on a positive note, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the earnings season. The main event was the record debut of South Korea’s SK Hynix, which raised $26.5 billion in the largest listing of a foreign company in US history, with its depositary receipts jumping 12.8% above the offering price. The tech sector showed mixed dynamics: amid rising demand for AI‑related solutions, Nvidia and AMD shares rose 4% and 2% respectively, while Meta surged 6% thanks to a positive analyst report.

This week will be pivotal for financial markets, as investors will closely analyze Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony in Congress. After his appointment, markets began pricing in a more hawkish monetary policy scenario, and now traders expect signals regarding the Fed’s readiness to raise rates in September. Particular interest will center on how the current labor‑market weakness – reflected in recent jobless‑claims data – aligns with his assessment of inflation risks, which are being fueled by energy prices. Investors will also focus on the US CPI inflation report this week. Headline inflation is expected to slow below 4%, but the persistence of core inflation at 2.9% may complicate the Fed’s task. Additional clarity will come from retail‑sales and industrial‑production reports, which will show how effectively the US economy is coping with inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of key Fed decisions.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its key rate at 2.25% this week, continuing its wait‑and‑see approach. Analysts note the absence of any urgent need for changes: inflation risks appear contained, and the economic recovery is progressing gradually, making the current monetary policy appropriate. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, rising to 1.41 per US dollar after hitting a 15‑month low of 1.425 at the end of June. This rebound was made possible by June employment data: the economy added 18,200 jobs, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5%. The positive labor‑market dynamics significantly reduced expectations that the Bank of Canada would need to ease monetary policy in the near term to support the economy.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.20% (weekly: -2.89%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.15% (weekly: -2.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.32% (weekly: -2.36%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24% (weekly: -1.71%). European equity markets are undergoing a correction after recently reaching record highs. The main pressure came from the tech sector: ASML shares fell 2.1%, Siemens Energy dropped 2.6%, and Infineon declined 1.3%. Market participants continue reassessing the outlook for the AI sector, questioning whether the significant speculative demand for infrastructure can transform into sustainable long‑term profitability for companies.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by roughly 4%, surpassing $74 per barrel and breaking a two‑day decline. The positive price dynamics were driven by a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where an exchange of missile strikes occurred. The flare‑up in the region erased recent optimism linked to the temporary peace agreement, which had previously given the market hope for increased energy supplies. Tehran issued a statement announcing the closure of navigation through the strait until further notice, which was denied by US Central Command, but the mere fact of the incident significantly complicates prospects for diplomatic resolution.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.20% (weekly: -2.02%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 2.48% (weekly: -0.27%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60% (weekly: +3.29%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.50% (weekly: -0.14%). On Monday, sentiment across Asia‑Pacific equity markets was mostly negative amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran, linked to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a spike in oil prices. This raised investor concerns about intensifying inflationary pressure and potential interest‑rate hikes by global central banks. As a result, most regional markets ended the session in the red, including Japan, Australia, and China.

This week will be decisive for the Asia‑Pacific region, where macroeconomic data from China will set the tone for global sentiment. China’s GDP growth in Q2 is expected to slow to 4.4%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the economy, despite a projected slight acceleration in the industrial sector to 4.7%. Investors will pay close attention to retail‑sales and trade figures, as well as credit‑growth data, which should clarify the effectiveness of recent measures aimed at supporting business activity.