InvestMacro

The US stock market traded mixed on Thursday. By the end of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.54%, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.18%. The primary event of the day was the paradoxical reaction to Nvidia’s earnings report: despite strong financial results, the company’s shares tumbled by 5.5%. Investors began to harbor serious doubts that massive capital investments in artificial intelligence would pay off in the long term, triggering a chain reaction and a decline across other chipmakers. Amid the flight from the overheated AI sector, a notable rotation of capital toward more stable and defensive assets was observed.

Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.2 per dollar. The main blow came from new US tariffs: following the Supreme Court’s February 20 decision, the Trump administration introduced a 15% global import surcharge. This sharply reduced the peso’s attractiveness, as Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner with deeply integrated supply chains. The situation was exacerbated by weak labor market data: in January 2026, Mexico lost 8,100 formal jobs, marking the worst start to a year since 2014.

Equity markets in Europe rose sharply. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.45%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.72%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.19%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.37% higher.

WTI oil prices demonstrated a sharp reversal, climbing 1.5% to the $66.30 per barrel level. Earlier in the session, prices had fallen nearly 3% amid optimistic comments from Omani mediators; however, market sentiment shifted abruptly following a harsh statement from Tehran. Iranian state media reported that the country would not allow the removal of enriched uranium, a key US demand, placing the Geneva negotiations on the brink of collapse. The situation is heating up as the deadline set by Donald Trump approaches: the President gave only a few days to reach a deal, threatening military action otherwise. The market immediately priced in a geopolitical premium, fearing supply disruptions from a major OPEC producer. At the same time, fundamental factors remain bearish: Saudi Arabian exports hit a three-year high, and on Sunday, March 1, OPEC+ countries will discuss increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in April.

US natural gas (XNG) prices fell by more than 1.5%, dropping to the $2.82 per MMBtu mark. This is the lowest price level since last September. The primary bearish factor was the weekly report from the EIA, which showed an extremely weak inventory reduction of only 52 billion cubic feet (BCF). For comparison, in the same period in 2025, the withdrawal was 252 bcf, while the five-year average stands at 168 BCF. This dynamic led to a sharp shift in the market balance.
Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a decline of 0.38%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.51%.

Investors moved into wait-and-see mode ahead of the “Two Sessions” in Beijing (March 4-11), where economic targets for 2026 will be established. The main event will be the presentation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which will define China’s strategy for achieving technological independence and supporting domestic demand. The market is pricing in a budget deficit of 4% of GDP and a growth target of around 5%, which is keeping quotes from a deep correction.

On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) was holding near $0.711, approaching a three-year high. The “aussie” has become the top performer among G10 currencies in 2026 (+6% year-to-date), driven by the aggressive stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Following an unexpected jump in inflation, the market prices in an 80% probability of a rate hike in May, expecting it to peak at 4.10%. Next week, traders’ attention will shift to GDP data and manufacturing PMI indices. If the economy proves resilient to high rates, the Australian dollar could consolidate above the 0.72 level.

The US stock market demonstrated steady growth on Wednesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished 1.09% higher. The highlight of the day was the Nvidia earnings report, which exceeded expectations for both profit and revenue. This served as a vital signal for investors: the “AI bubble,” much discussed in recent weeks, has not burst, and real demand for chips remains consistently high.

Equity markets in Europe surged on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.47%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 1.49%. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.18%, reaching a new all-time high. The primary driver of the rally was the banking sector, led by HSBC, whose shares skyrocketed 7.6% following a strong financial report. The commodities sector also significantly contributed to the index’s growth amid rising prices for copper and metals.

Banking analysts predict stability for the Swiss franc (CHF) in the short term, viewing it as the ultimate safe-haven asset amid trade wars and geopolitical chaos. Switzerland’s strong fiscal indicators and current account surplus make the franc resilient to market shocks. However, this strength poses serious challenges for the domestic economy. Inflation in Switzerland sits at a critically low level (0.1%), effectively signaling a risk of deflation. Consequently, the SNB may either move to cut rates into negative territory or, more likely, conduct currency interventions by selling the franc to curb its exchange rate.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG) jumped more than 3%, closely approaching the psychological mark of $90 per ounce. The growth was driven by a confluence of factors: the implementation of the US 10% tariff, threats to raise it to 15%, and preparations for the decisive round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Investors returned to silver as a hedge against trade war risks and potential escalation in the Middle East.

Platinum prices (XPT) are trading above $2,300 per ounce on Thursday, hitting a four-week high. The precious metals market remains on edge due to large-scale US sanctions against 30 Iranian entities and the largest US military buildup in the Persian Gulf since 2003. Investors are utilizing platinum as a defensive asset ahead of the crucial Geneva talks, fearing that a diplomatic failure could lead to direct military conflict. Fundamentally, platinum is supported by the “substitution effect” for palladium and a chronic supply deficit from South Africa.

WTI oil prices accelerated their decline on Wednesday, dropping to $65.35 per barrel. The primary bearish factor was the EIA report, which recorded a shocking increase in crude oil inventories of 15.99 million barrels for the week. This is the largest build in three years, exceeding analyst expectations tenfold and neutralizing concerns regarding a supply deficit.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 2.20%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.65%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.66%. The Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.17%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made a powerful move to 0.713 USD, reaching its highest levels since August 2022. Markets are nearly certain of an RBA rate hike to 4.10% (with an 80% probability for a May move) after January inflation figures unpleasantly surprised the regulator. The “aussie” currently looks like the favorite among G10 currencies as Australian government bond yields are rising faster than their US counterparts.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) climbed above the 0.60 USD mark on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains. The primary driver of the “kiwi’s” strength was a localized weakening of the US dollar: investors began to doubt the sustainability of Trump’s trade strategy after the Supreme Court blocked some of his initiatives, prompting temporary profit-taking on long USD positions. Nevertheless, the upside potential for the NZD is limited by the RBNZ’s dovish stance. Governor Anna Breman has signaled that the economy can recover without overheating, depriving the RBNZ of incentives to hike rates in the near future.

The US stock market demonstrated growth on Tuesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.09%. The main driver of optimism was a shift in the perception of risks associated with artificial intelligence: investors moved from fears regarding the displacement of traditional software to a realization of AI’s potential as a powerful supplement to existing business processes. The true victor of the day was AMD, whose shares soared by 8.8% (peaking at a 14% gain) following the announcement of a massive contract with Meta. This deal, bolstered by warrants for Meta to purchase AMD shares, confirms AMD’s status as a serious competitor to Nvidia.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.26%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.54%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. After a sharp fall the day before, the market entered a phase of cautious anticipation. Traders attempted to ignore the negative backdrop surrounding the AI sector, drawing optimism from the strong news out of Meta and awaiting tomorrow’s Nvidia report, which will be a defining moment for European tech stocks.

WTI oil prices recovered to $66.20 per barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline. The market has paused in anticipation of the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva: positive signals from Tehran regarding a readiness for a deal are clashing with Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric. The primary factor of uncertainty remains security in the Strait of Hormuz, as any diplomatic failure threatens the transit of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Additional pressure on quotes is exerted by the implementation of the US 10% tariff. Traders fear that an escalation of trade wars and a possible hike in duties to 15% will slow global economic growth, inevitably leading to a drop in energy demand.

Silver prices (XAG) declined by nearly 1%, reaching $87.50 per ounce. Mass liquidation of assets on Chinese exchanges outweighed the global demand for safe-haven assets that arose amid the introduction of US 15% tariffs and expectations regarding the nuclear talks with Iran. The silver market remains in a correction phase following the shock collapse of 38% at the beginning of the month.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell below the $3 per MMBtu mark on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level since October. The primary factor for the decline was updated weather prognoses from NOAA, indicating abnormally high temperatures in the Western and Central states through the end of February. Weakening heating demand at the end of the winter season forced traders to reassess the likelihood of a fuel deficit, resulting in a sharp sell-off.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.87%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a modest gain of 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.04%.
The economy of Hong Kong demonstrated robust growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its best performance in two years. Strengthening business confidence amid real estate market stabilization and the active implementation of AI technologies allowed the year to close with total GDP growth of 3.5%, significantly exceeding the 2024 result (2.6%). For 2026, growth rates are projected to remain in the range of 3.3-3.6%, provided that external trade frictions do not exert a critical impact on the logistics hub.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.70 USD on Wednesday, reacting to unexpectedly high inflation data. The January figure of 3.8% (against projections of 3.7%) and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% confirmed market fears: price pressure in Australia remains persistent. Amid historically low unemployment and strong wage growth, these figures make the RBA the most “hawkish” among major central banks. Markets now see a 70% probability of a rate hike to 4.1% as early as May, with the prospect of another move in November.

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with gains. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) jumped by 0.47% (+0.38% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.69% (+1.10% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.87% (+1.42% for the week). The positive dynamics were triggered by a Supreme Court decision that ruled the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful, sparking hopes for the return of approximately $175 billion to companies. Despite weak GDP data (+1.4%) and the President’s immediate promise to introduce a new 10% global tariff via executive order, investors focused on the short-term legal triumph. In the short term, traders are forced to balance optimism from court rulings against new regulatory risks that continue to pressure long-term yield expectations.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 level against the US dollar, hitting a monthly low amid strengthening US bonds and a correction in the energy market. Despite the positive momentum from the US Supreme Court decision overturning global trade tariffs, Canada’s national currency came under pressure due to the widening yield gap with US assets. The Fed’s hawkish stance, supported by PCE inflation data at 3%, contrasts with the wait-and-see tactics of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is holding the rate at 2.25% while the Domestic Consumer Price Index slows to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated a confident rally, strengthening past the 17.15 per dollar mark, its best performance in a year and a half. The main driver of optimism was the US Supreme Court decision, which annulled the Trump administration’s global tariffs, thereby eliminating a critical risk for Mexico’s export sector. Investors remain focused on the policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), whose strategy of maintaining high interest rates continues to provide significant support to the peso amid fading trade uncertainty.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $65,000, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Pressure on the market intensified amid renewed concerns surrounding US tariff policy, which triggered volatility in global markets. Recently, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have shown weak dynamics compared to other asset classes.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87% (+1.09% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.39% (+2.31% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.94% (+2.47% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.56% (+2.30% for the week). European stock indices started the week with a decline amid intensifying trade confrontation with the US. Investors are reacting to Donald Trump’s decision to raise the announced global levy from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the 1974 law, after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous protectionist executive orders. The EU’s reaction was immediate: Brussels called on Washington to respect previously reached agreements and threatened to freeze the ratification of current trade agreements until legal clarifications are received from the American side. Despite assurances from US officials about maintaining the status quo for key partners, supply chain uncertainty is driving traders out of risky assets.

WTI oil prices ended the week with a confident gain of 5%, stabilizing around $66 per barrel. The main catalyst for the rally was a sharp increase in geopolitical risks: Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and a massive buildup of the US military presence in the Middle East sparked fears regarding the stability of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran accounts for about 3% of global production, a potential conflict threatens significant volumes of crude, forcing investors to price in a high risk premium. Traders continue to closely monitor Tehran’s 15-day deadline, expecting further volatility depending on the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

US natural gas (XNG) prices ended Friday’s trading with a sharp jump above $3.1 per MMBtu, gaining more than 4% amid expected cold weather in the Northeast. Despite this local spike, quotes showed negative dynamics for the full week, losing about 4% in value. The main pressure on the market is exerted by a significant increase in production across the Lower 48 states, which in February closely approached the historical highs of December, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day, offsetting concerns about supply shortages. Even maintaining record LNG export volumes cannot fully compensate for excessive domestic production and subdued heating demand, which limits the potential for a long-term price recovery.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.68% over the trading week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) depreciated by 3.06% during the short week, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.52% over the 5 days.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed an impressive 2.4% gain at Monday’s opening, reaching 27,056 points. Optimism swept through all sectors amid expectations for the reopening of mainland China markets after the Lunar New Year holiday. Investors interpreted Trump’s new 15% tariff as a measure that could unexpectedly play into Beijing’s hands by strengthening China’s position in global trade alliances. The Hong Kong market is currently acting as a leading indicator, pricing in a scenario where pragmatism in US-China relations outweighs tariff threats.