InvestMacro

Rising government bond yields put pressure on indices. The RBA kept the rate on hold but left a hawkish bias

As of Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.54%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.84% on Monday, hitting a 3-week low. Yesterday’s rise in bond yields pressured technology stocks and lowered the broad market. Bond yields are rising on concerns that markets may be overly optimistic about the Fed’s chances of cutting interest rates by the second quarter of 2024. Markets forecast a 68% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024, FOMC meeting and a fully discounted (137% probability) probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1, 2024, FOMC meeting.

This week, markets await JOLTS openings, ADP national employment, and US monthly payrolls reports to gauge the strength of the US labor market and whether additional monetary tightening is appropriate. US factory orders in October fell by 3.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of 3.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 3 years. This indicates weak demand for industrial metals, which put additional pressure on silver.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell more than 3% yesterday on signs of insider selling after Washington Service data showed that Nvidia executives sold $180 million worth of stock last month.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.04%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.18% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

ECB Governing Council representative Centeno warned yesterday that the labor market implications of excessive monetary tightening could be swift when the economy turns around. His counterpart, ECB Vice President Guindos, indicated that the ECB cannot yet say that inflation is under control as the ECB sees large wage growth in some parts of the Eurozone, which could lead to additional price pressures. Eurozone Investor Confidence Index for December from Sentix rose by 1.8 to minus 16.8, which was weaker than expectations of minus 15.6. German trade balance data was weaker than expected, with October exports unexpectedly falling by 0.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 1.1% m/m. Imports also fell by 1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.8% m/m.

Swaps tied to ECB meeting dates estimate a 73% probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at the March 7 meeting and more than estimated (+150%) that rate cut by 25 bps at the April 11 ECB meeting.

The dollar index rally to 1-week highs on Monday was bearish for energy prices. Crude oil was also pressured by the negative impact of last Thursday’s events, when OPEC+ said it would cut oil production levels by 1.0 mln bpd, but did not provide details on how the cut would be implemented. Oil prices were supported by concerns that attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East could disrupt crude supplies. The US Central Command said there were four missile and drone attacks on three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the Red Sea on Sunday. Iranian-backed Houthis rebels claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.70% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.09% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.73% on Monday.

Australia’s Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday as expected, giving itself more time to assess the economy and decide whether to tighten further next year. RBA chief Bullock maintained the same policy tightening bias, saying the need for further rate hikes will depend on data and a changing risk assessment. Markets expect an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in 2024, with a drop of more than 100 basis points, while the RBA may just cut the rate by 15 basis points late next year. That would stabilize the Australian currency against the dollar and euro next year.

Core inflation in Japan’s capital slowed in November, confirming the central bank’s view that cost pressures in the world’s third-largest economy will gradually ease. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food prices but includes fuel costs, came in at 2.3% y/y in Tokyo, down from 2.7% y/y in October. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to maintain ultra-loose policy until inflation driven by recent cost increases is replaced by demand-driven price increases backed by strong wage increases. Revised real gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday is expected to show that Asia’s second-largest economy contracted by 2.0% in the third quarter, which would be negative for the Japanese currency.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,569.78 −24.85 (−0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,204.44 −41.06 (−0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 16,404.76 +7.24 (+0.044%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,512.96 −16.39 (−0.22%)

USD Index 103.63 +0.36 (+0.35%)

News feed for 2023.12.05:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Dec

USDJPY bears eye weekly support

By ForexTime

USDJPY under pressure on D1/H4 timeframe

Weekly support next key point of interest

4 potential targets identified on the H4 chart

Bearish scenario invalided above 147.452

The USDJPY could be on the cusp of creating a new impulse wave in the current downtrend.

Bulls tried to reach the weekly resistance level yesterday but were unable to shake the bearish resolve. Prices seem to be picking up negative momentum and might be heading south to a weekly support level at 144.758.

Looking at the structure of the market on a lower time frame for better timing, the H4 chart proves to give valuable insight. The potential bearish momentum is confirmed by the price being below the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in bearish terrain.

The weekly resistance level might be re-tested but if it holds and the price reaches the 146.226 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 146.226 and dragging it to just above the last lower top at 147.452, four possible targets can be established:

The first potential target is at 145.736 (Target 1). This target will mainly be for risk management.
The second price target is likely at 145.490 (Target 2) and now the risk of the overall position should be almost none.
The third price target is possible at 145.000 (Target 3), just before the weekly support level.
The fourth and last price target is feasible at 144.387 (Target 4) if the bears manage to break through the next weekly support level.

If the price at 147.452 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Dec

Brent “does not believe” OPEC+

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent oil prices fell to 78.30 USD per barrel on Monday.

Despite OPEC+ decisions at the November meeting, oil prices are falling. The issue is that the actual parameters of OPEC+ quotas turned out to be lower than investors expected. This does not cancel out the Cartel’s powerful support on prices. However, the market cannot cope with emotional reactions.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East observed last weekend may bolster the oil quotes. The factor of a strong US dollar is working oppositely. While the USD is rising, commodity assets appear less attractive to buyers.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 Brent chart, there was a rebound from the 84.81 level. The market has fallen to 80.10 and is forming a consolidation range around this level today. A decline to 78.10 is expected, followed by a rise to 80.00 (a test from below). Subsequently, the price could continue its downward trajectory to 76.50. A growth wave might start after the price reaches this level, targeting 85.80. This is the first target for the growth wave. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, with its signal line breaking the zero mark, aimed strictly downwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, a consolidation range has expanded downwards to 78.10. Today, a rise to 80.10 is expected, followed by a drop to 76.50, potentially continuing to 75.40. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 20 and poised to rise to the 50 mark.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

04 Dec

Bitcoin price jump fueled by scandal crackdowns and central bank expectations

By George Prior

Bitcoin topping $40,000 is because – not despite – the recent scandals are clearing out the bad actors from the market, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green is speaking out as the world’s biggest cryptocurrency hit as high as $41,700 on Monday, its highest since April 2022.

Last month, Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, the founder of Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, pleaded guilty to money laundering violations and agreed to pay a $50 million fine and step down from his role as the company’s chief executive.

The company itself also pleaded guilty and agreed to pay $4.3 billion in fines and restitution to the government, according to federal authorities.

Nigel Green comments: “The CZ/Binance scandal and the FTX collapse which resulted in a month-long trial which convicted the FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy, triggered some short-term volatility, but the crypto market has continued to remain bullish.

“In fact, Bitcoin is up by over 150% so far this year.

“It appears that law enforcement and regulatory authorities worldwide are cracking down on executives and companies of digital currencies. This greater regulatory scrutiny is seemingly appealing to investors who are piling into the likes of Bitcoin.

“It would also be attractive to institutional investors who bring with them huge amounts of capital.”

Microstrategy, the software developer and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin boosted its holdings recently, buying some 16,130 BTC, worth around $610 million at current prices.

BlackRock, the $9trillion asset manager, alongside WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise and Valkyrie Digital Assets, have published Bitcoin ETF applications waiting to be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC.

“We believe that Bitcoin ETFs are an imminent inevitability, and this would help drive crypto prices and mass adoption,” says the deVere CEO.

“Should SEC approval happen, it would be a landmark moment for Bitcoin. The approval by the financial regulator of the world’s largest economy of this spot ETF would show that Bitcoin is, without any question, part of the global mainstream financial system.”

Spot ETFs invest directly in underlying assets, typically stocks or bonds, at the current market price (spot price). They aim to replicate the performance of a specific index or asset class by holding a portfolio of the actual securities that make up the index.

“In addition, expectations the Federal Reserve and other major central banks are done hiking interest rates are fuelling Bitcoin prices,” he adds.

Also in the mind of investors is next year’s Bitcoin halving event. One of the key features of Bitcoin’s monetary policy is its limited supply. The total number of Bitcoins that can ever exist is capped at 21 million coins.

Its issuance is also predictable. Through a process called mining, new Bitcoins are created and added to the circulating supply.

However, the rate of issuance is programmed to decrease over time. Initially, miners were rewarded with 50 Bitcoins for each block they successfully mined. This reward is halved approximately every four years in an event known as the ‘halving.’

“The next halving is expected in April 2024. The lead-up has typically been the most profitable time for crypto investors.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Scandal-triggered crackdowns, expected central bank plans, and next year’s halving event are fueling Bitcoin prices. We expect this trend to continue for the rest of this year and into 2024.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

04 Dec

BoC has peaked on interest rates. ECB may cut the rate as early as spring 2024

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.82% (+2.46% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.59% (+0.87% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively by 0.55% (+0.46% for the week) on Friday. Stocks were boosted by the latest economic data, as well as dovish comments from US Fed chief Jerome Powell.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for November was unchanged at 46.7, which was weaker than expectations of a rise to 47.8 and was the 13th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. Dovish comments from the Fed on Friday put pressure on the dollar. Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the December 12-13 FOMC meeting.

Canada added 24,900 jobs in November, 15,000 more than analysts had forecast, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.8% from 5.7%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a recent speech that “interest rates can now be quite restrictive” as excess demand has disappeared and weak growth is expected to persist, leading most to conclude that the central bank has peaked on rates this cycle and the BoC is expected to leave rates unchanged this Wednesday. That said, polls suggest the Bank of Canada will start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year as inflation slows and the economy grows. Economists believe the underlying cost of borrowing will fall by at least one percentage point by the end of 2024.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.12% (+2.44% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.48% (+0.73% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.82% (+2.15% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively by 1.01% (+0.55% for the week).

The European Central Bank (ECB) should not cause “unnecessary damage” to the economy and financial stability by keeping interest rates high, new Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said on Thursday. Panetta, a spokesman for the ECB’s governing council, added that the round of monetary tightening, which saw a streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes through September, has yet to have its full impact and will continue to dampen demand going forward. In his first major speech since taking the helm of Italy’s central bank, Panetta warned that the eurozone economy would remain weak in the final three months of this year and that risks to the economy were tilted to the downside. Market swaps tied to ECB meeting dates estimate an 81% probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at its March 7 meeting and more than estimated (+183%) the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the ECB’s April 11 meeting.

On Friday, crude oil prices were pressured by Thursday’s negative impact when OPEC+ said it would cut oil production levels by 1.0 million bpd, but did not provide details on how the cut would be implemented. The market is disappointed that additional OPEC oil production cuts will be announced by each country individually, suggesting that the cuts can only be voluntary. The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members persists and is bearish, signaling increasing infighting between members of the organization.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.83% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 2.53% for the 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 4.79% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.46% for the week.

An interest rate survey conducted from November 29 to December 1 showed that 28 out of 30 economists, including representatives from Australia’s four largest banks, expect the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the official money rate unchanged on December 5.

Bank Indonesia (BI) will keep the benchmark rate at the current level until 2024 unless there are any major changes in global dynamics, Bank Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Wednesday, signaling the central bank has completed its rate hike cycle. Warjiyo said the benchmark 7-day rate at 6% should be enough to keep domestic inflation within the target range of 1.5% to 3.5% in 2024 and 2025. The bank’s inflation target range for this year is between 2% and 4%. BI has raised interest rates by a total of 250 basis points between August 2022 and October, with the latest rate hike in response to a sharp fall in the rupee amid capital outflows associated with US monetary tightening.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,594.63 +26.83 (+0.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,245.50 +294.61 (+0.82%)

DAX (DE40) 16,397.52 +182.09 (+1.12%)

FTSE 100(UK100) 7,529.35 +75.60 (+1.01%)

USD Index 103.19 −0.30 (−0.29%)

News feed for 2023.12.04:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Factory Orders (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Dec

Trade of the Week: Gold hits all-time high before rocket ship falters

By ForexTime

Gold hits all-time high above $2130

Precious metal boosted by Fed cut bets

Key US data including NFP could trigger volatility

Prices firmly bullish but RSI signals overbought

Key levels of interest at $2100, $2070 and $2035

Gold kicked off Monday shooting for the stars, soaring more than 3% to create a fresh all-time high above $2130 before surrendering most of those gains.

Everyone wanted a piece of the precious metal last Friday after dovish comments from Jerome Powell hit the dollar along with Treasury yields. Investor appetite for gold seems to have intensified over the weekend with bulls stepping into higher gear as rate-cut bets intensified.

Despite the sharp pullback in prices, gold prices remain fundamentally bullish due to geopolitical risk and growing expectations for a US rate cut in 2024. Indeed, the precious metal is up roughly 15% since the October low and still trading a distance away from the psychological $2000 level.

Taking a quick look at the technicals, prices remain on an uptrend but this could be threatened if the current daily candle stick forms a shooting star pattern.

Note: A shooting star is a bearish candlestick that signals a potential reversal. It can be identified with a long wick and small-bodied candlestick.

This could be another wild week for gold as the focus falls on key US economic reports that may influence expectations around what the Fed will do beyond 2023.

Here are some events that may rock gold over the next few days:

US data + November jobs report

It is a data-heavy week for the US economy with all eyes will be on the latest non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

As far as markets are concerned, the Federal Reserve’s hiking campaign is over with the next move being a rate cut in 2024. Dovish comments by Powell last Friday simply reinforced these expectations with traders now pricing in a 67% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March 2024.

The real market moving this week will most likely be November’s jobs report. Markets expect the US economy to have created 200,000 jobs last month while unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%.

Should overall economic data disappoint along with the NFP report, this could support gold prices as rate-cut bets grow.
Strong-than-expected economic data including the jobs report may weaken gold, especially if the dollar stabilizes as traders push back rate-cut bets.

Geopolitical tensions

The end of the truce deal between Israel and Hamas could fuel risk aversion and investors’ concerns.

A truce deal between both sides that began on November 24th ended last Friday after negotiations reached a deadlock. The temporary truce initially sparked hopes for a long-term peace deal that could reduce geopolitical risks. However, with the conflict between Israel and Hamas resuming this could send investors rushing towards safe-haven destinations like gold.

More signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East may sap risk sentiment, keeping gold prices buoyed as a result.
Any signs of easing tensions could boost market sentiment, dragging gold prices lower.

Technical forces

After gaining aggressively during early trading on Monday, prices came crashing down, giving back most of the gains.

Gold remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, indicating that prices are heavily overbought. In addition, the current daily candle stick could be a threat to bulls if it closes as a shooting star pattern.

Prices could rebound back towards $2070 and $2100 regions if $2035 proves to be a reliable support.
A decline back below $2035 may trigger a selloff towards $2010 and $2000, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

03 Dec

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (18,203 contracts) with the EuroFX (13,511 contracts) also rising by more than 10,000 contracts followed by the Australian Dollar (6,751 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,554 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,198 contracts).

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-3,783 contracts), US Dollar Index (-1,610 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,001 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,755 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,295 contracts) and Bitcoin (-869 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s boost in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling and the Euro. Both of these currencies saw speculator positions rise by over +10,000 weekly contracts. Helping out both the Sterling and the Euro positioning has been a dent in the outlook for the US Dollar.

The US inflation numbers continue to moderate and market watchers are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold their interest rates steady. According to the Fed Watch tool, expectations are currently 98 percent for a rate hold at the December meeting and when looking out over the next year, investors are starting to expect rate decreases in 2024.

The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by over +18,000 contracts and has gained in three out of the past four weeks. The GBP speculative level has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eight weeks at a total of -7,895 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate has been following suit with a price close this week at the highest level since August. The GBPUSD has bounced off the 1.2100 major support in recent months and has accelerated higher (+5% in November) with a close over the 1.2700 to end the week.

The Euro speculator position, meanwhile, jumped by over +13,000 contracts this week as well and has now risen for seven consecutive weeks. The Euro position has gained by a total of +67,633 contracts over this past 7-week period to reach a 13-week high point at +143,165 contracts. The Euro (EURUSD) exchange rate to the US Dollar has also had a strong couple of months with the EURUSD currency pair bouncing off the 1.5500 major support to challenge the 1.1000 level. This week the EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1000 level and closed at 1.0879.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,359	33	19,087	57	-18,292	47	-795	0
EUR	727,138	48	143,165	81	-176,315	23	33,150	32
GBP	217,372	47	-7,895	50	10,064	51	-2,169	54
JPY	260,781	82	-109,237	12	103,692	86	5,545	65
CHF	60,479	96	-20,289	1	26,691	88	-6,402	38
CAD	200,864	61	-63,242	6	67,537	94	-4,295	13
AUD	197,053	55	-71,219	24	73,789	73	-2,570	46
NZD	51,460	60	-19,609	4	20,208	91	-599	43
MXN	247,503	54	65,485	79	-71,441	19	5,956	49
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	108,749	100	32,881	77	-29,230	29	-3,651	0
Bitcoin	23,027	100	-1,745	40	792	0	953	35

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) were leading the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (77 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (59.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (79.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (75.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.4 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (38 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-31 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (38.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-31.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	17.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	9.0
– Net Position:	19,087	-18,292	-795
– Gross Longs:	28,798	6,746	2,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,711	25,038	3,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	46.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.9	-28.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 143,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	53.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	77.7	6.8
– Net Position:	143,165	-176,315	33,150
– Gross Longs:	233,454	388,784	82,613
– Gross Shorts:	90,289	565,099	49,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	23.2	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-28.0	22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	54.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	49.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-7,895	10,064	-2,169
– Gross Longs:	61,296	118,253	26,067
– Gross Shorts:	69,191	108,189	28,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	51.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.5	12.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -109,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	69.1	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.6	29.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-109,237	103,692	5,545
– Gross Longs:	30,461	180,134	44,382
– Gross Shorts:	139,698	76,442	38,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	85.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-4.2	31.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	73.0	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	28.9	30.0
– Net Position:	-20,289	26,691	-6,402
– Gross Longs:	4,300	44,145	11,754
– Gross Shorts:	24,589	17,454	18,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	87.9	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	-6.6	24.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	71.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	37.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-63,242	67,537	-4,295
– Gross Longs:	18,991	143,464	30,505
– Gross Shorts:	82,233	75,927	34,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.0	93.7	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	-6.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -71,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	29.1	13.7
– Net Position:	-71,219	73,789	-2,570
– Gross Longs:	29,203	131,213	24,361
– Gross Shorts:	100,422	57,424	26,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	72.7	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-17.6	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	71.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	32.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-19,609	20,208	-599
– Gross Longs:	10,104	36,898	3,703
– Gross Shorts:	29,713	16,690	4,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.7	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	28.5	13.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	53.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	82.0	0.8
– Net Position:	65,485	-71,441	5,956
– Gross Longs:	105,838	131,543	7,840
– Gross Shorts:	40,353	202,984	1,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.5	20.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	45.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.5	7.0
– Net Position:	32,881	-29,230	-3,651
– Gross Longs:	52,260	49,664	3,934
– Gross Shorts:	19,379	78,894	7,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	29.4	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-30.4	-48.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.4	5.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	90.0	2.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	792	953
– Gross Longs:	18,979	1,344	1,688
– Gross Shorts:	20,724	552	735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	90.7	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	48.6	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators boosted their 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets saw lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (96,571 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (70,133 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (27,337 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines for the week were the Fed Funds (-54,208 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,196 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23,489 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,522 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,193 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,837,439	100	527,237	100	-525,306	0	-1,931	87
FedFunds	1,917,677	82	-203,490	25	220,167	77	-16,677	58
2-Year	4,080,415	95	-1,288,831	11	1,141,440	87	147,391	100
Long T-Bond	1,308,135	62	-102,176	48	51,573	30	50,603	85
10-Year	4,775,113	90	-685,354	16	632,924	82	52,430	85
5-Year	6,081,130	97	-1,398,500	4	1,250,881	94	147,619	99

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (51 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (48 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (48.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (51.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (54.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.4 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (28 percent) and the Fed Funds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (28.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (37.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (17.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (13.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 527,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 499,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	53.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	58.8	0.3
– Net Position:	527,237	-525,306	-1,931
– Gross Longs:	2,221,115	5,844,327	31,767
– Gross Shorts:	1,693,878	6,369,633	33,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-18.8	7.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -203,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	76.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	65.1	2.4
– Net Position:	-203,490	220,167	-16,677
– Gross Longs:	146,621	1,468,991	30,251
– Gross Shorts:	350,111	1,248,824	46,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	76.5	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-20.9	12.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,288,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 96,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,385,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	80.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	53.0	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,288,831	1,141,440	147,391
– Gross Longs:	432,134	3,303,026	279,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,720,965	2,161,586	132,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.7	86.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-6.5	8.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,398,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 70,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,468,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	61.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-1,398,500	1,250,881	147,619
– Gross Longs:	458,979	4,994,986	446,125
– Gross Shorts:	1,857,479	3,744,105	298,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	93.9	99.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	13.7	18.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -685,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -27,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	64.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-685,354	632,924	52,430
– Gross Longs:	510,993	3,700,892	431,609
– Gross Shorts:	1,196,347	3,067,968	379,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	82.4	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	2.4	-9.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -257,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -234,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.3	13.6
– Net Position:	-257,895	327,143	-69,248
– Gross Longs:	200,148	1,587,632	206,483
– Gross Shorts:	458,043	1,260,489	275,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	100.0	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	11.1	-22.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -102,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	75.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	71.0	12.2
– Net Position:	-102,176	51,573	50,603
– Gross Longs:	107,866	980,494	210,065
– Gross Shorts:	210,042	928,921	159,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	30.3	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.0	-32.7	5.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -329,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -322,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-329,265	319,441	9,824
– Gross Longs:	95,430	1,304,297	176,634
– Gross Shorts:	424,695	984,856	166,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	53.0	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.9	-25.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

02 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,379 contracts) with Silver (6,828 contracts), Platinum (2,898 contracts), Steel (682 contracts) and Palladium (116 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a dip of just -329 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25

Strength Scores led by Steel, Silver & Gold

On the downside, Palladium (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (65.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.6 percent)
Silver (67.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.4 percent)
Copper (27.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (38.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.9 percent)
Steel (98.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.9 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (38 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. All the markets in the metals category have positive trends for the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (44.1 percent)
Silver (20.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.6 percent)
Copper (19.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.7 percent)
Platinum (22.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.6 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.2 percent)
Steel (21.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 200,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.3	22.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	66.1	5.4
– Net Position:	200,084	-218,592	18,508
– Gross Longs:	289,845	115,596	45,650
– Gross Shorts:	89,761	334,188	27,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	39.5	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-35.0	9.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 34,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	29.0	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.3	9.4
– Net Position:	34,280	-47,855	13,575
– Gross Longs:	62,880	40,287	26,647
– Gross Shorts:	28,600	88,142	13,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	35.9	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.7	9.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	38.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	36.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-3,872	4,912	-1,040
– Gross Longs:	62,749	67,348	13,309
– Gross Shorts:	66,621	62,436	14,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	75.7	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-15.2	-22.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	25.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	45.3	4.5
– Net Position:	10,034	-14,272	4,238
– Gross Longs:	38,438	17,603	7,403
– Gross Shorts:	28,404	31,875	3,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	64.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-18.2	-11.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	59.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	7.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-10,171	10,348	-177
– Gross Longs:	4,804	11,790	1,610
– Gross Shorts:	14,975	1,442	1,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	8.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	92.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.1	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	70.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	70.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-233	-30	263
– Gross Longs:	4,967	14,556	453
– Gross Shorts:	5,200	14,586	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.6	1.1	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-23.5	46.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

02 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets this week was Live Cattle (1,201 contracts) with Coffee (224 contracts) and Cotton (176 contracts) also showing small positive gains.

The declines were much great this week and were led by Corn (-33,142 contracts), Soybeans (-23,109 contracts), Wheat (-19,673 contracts), Sugar (-17,061 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,335 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,921 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,272 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,193 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,563,737	15	183,171	11	-206,779	91	23,608	28
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25
Natural Gas	1,312,707	71	-107,889	33	87,193	70	20,696	29
Brent	145,818	24	-39,062	36	35,968	66	3,094	53
Heating Oil	303,447	37	37,349	90	-58,291	18	20,942	67
Soybeans	736,483	43	50,697	14	-30,394	86	-20,303	55
Corn	1,290,429	13	-157,148	0	175,160	100	-18,012	100
Coffee	193,911	13	30,558	59	-32,407	44	1,849	35
Sugar	875,946	43	205,076	65	-249,605	33	44,529	61
Wheat	411,837	72	-97,204	0	98,645	100	-1,441	60

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (83 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (65 percent), Coffee (59 percent) and Soybean Oil (26 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Soybeans (13.5 percent) all came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.7 percent)
Sugar (64.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.0 percent)
Coffee (58.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.5 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (78.6 percent)
Live Cattle (21.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (13.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (83.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (84.3 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.7 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (32 percent) and Soybean Meal (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-20 percent), Wheat (-19 percent) and Soybean Oil (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.4 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.2 percent)
Coffee (31.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (47.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (30.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (46.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.7 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-34.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.1 percent)
Wheat (-19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -157,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	34.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-157,148	175,160	-18,012
– Gross Longs:	251,194	616,045	152,623
– Gross Shorts:	408,342	440,885	170,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	12.0	20.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 205,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.8	5.1
– Net Position:	205,076	-249,605	44,529
– Gross Longs:	290,604	361,766	89,368
– Gross Shorts:	85,528	611,371	44,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	33.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.6	-6.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.7	4.8
– Net Position:	30,558	-32,407	1,849
– Gross Longs:	64,033	71,780	11,068
– Gross Shorts:	33,475	104,187	9,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.3	8.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	54.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.2	9.8
– Net Position:	50,697	-30,394	-20,303
– Gross Longs:	138,388	398,034	51,620
– Gross Shorts:	87,691	428,428	71,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.6	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-6.7	-12.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.7	5.3
– Net Position:	14,039	-19,288	5,249
– Gross Longs:	99,192	230,705	30,895
– Gross Shorts:	85,153	249,993	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	72.6	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	13.2	4.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	33.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	61.0	6.2
– Net Position:	130,628	-150,026	19,398
– Gross Longs:	174,164	180,980	53,313
– Gross Shorts:	43,536	331,006	33,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-31.0	2.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	38.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	51.9	12.6
– Net Position:	39,857	-36,327	-3,530
– Gross Longs:	78,406	105,202	30,770
– Gross Shorts:	38,549	141,529	34,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.3	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.5	39.7	31.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	39.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	25.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-25,276	27,193	-1,917
– Gross Longs:	54,404	76,877	18,358
– Gross Shorts:	79,680	49,684	20,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	94.6	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.5	-1.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.6	7.0
– Net Position:	6,184	-4,226	-1,958
– Gross Longs:	61,638	87,247	11,436
– Gross Shorts:	55,454	91,473	13,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.5	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	22.9	-40.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	25.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	50.8	4.4
– Net Position:	71,646	-73,777	2,131
– Gross Longs:	129,235	71,629	14,652
– Gross Shorts:	57,589	145,406	12,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	17.9	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	1.8	-19.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	16.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,204	98,645	-1,441
– Gross Longs:	114,707	164,692	34,939
– Gross Shorts:	211,911	66,047	36,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	24.6	-22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

The USDJPY could be on the cusp of creating a new impulse wave in the current downtrend.

The first potential target is at 145.736 (Target 1). This target will mainly be for risk management.

The second price target is likely at 145.490 (Target 2) and now the risk of the overall position should be almost none.

The third price target is possible at 145.000 (Target 3), just before the weekly support level.

The fourth and last price target is feasible at 144.387 (Target 4) if the bears manage to break through the next weekly support level.

Gold kicked off Monday shooting for the stars, soaring more than 3% to create a fresh all-time high above $2130 before surrendering most of those gains.

US data + November jobs report

Geopolitical tensions

Technical forces

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

Strength Scores led by Steel, Silver & Gold

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures: