COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

January 13, 2024

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (3,950 contracts) with Soybean Oil (3,279 contracts), Coffee (2,160 contracts), Cotton (261 contracts) and Wheat (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-29,428 contracts), Corn (-26,305 contracts), Soybeans (-16,121 contracts) Sugar (-5,867 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,286 contracts) and Cocoa (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (80 percent) and Coffee (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside there are a number of markets at extreme lows. Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Lean Hogs (10 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Cotton (13 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.6 percent)
Sugar (15.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.7 percent)
Coffee (74.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.4 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.0 percent)
Cocoa (80.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.3 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.2 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (44 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-74 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-49 percent), Soybeans (-31 percent) and Soybean Oil (-27 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.2 percent)
Sugar (-49.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-53.3 percent)
Coffee (15.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.4 percent)
Soybeans (-30.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-33.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-74.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-62.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.5 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.0 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	46.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	32.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-173,033	194,021	-20,988
– Gross Longs:	263,111	654,962	146,167
– Gross Shorts:	436,144	460,941	167,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	2.7	-4.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	57.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	67.1	7.5
– Net Position:	68,958	-81,593	12,635
– Gross Longs:	173,488	463,071	73,874
– Gross Shorts:	104,530	544,664	61,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	84.4	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.3	51.4	-42.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	58.1	3.6
– Net Position:	45,588	-47,708	2,120
– Gross Longs:	73,163	80,276	10,075
– Gross Shorts:	27,575	127,984	7,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	28.4	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.2	3.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,928 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	57.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	49.3	10.0
– Net Position:	-38,049	53,620	-15,571
– Gross Longs:	99,237	378,409	50,048
– Gross Shorts:	137,286	324,789	65,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	27.8	11.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	50.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	45.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-29,208	27,654	1,554
– Gross Longs:	95,344	258,646	29,768
– Gross Shorts:	124,552	230,992	28,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	96.7	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.6	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	48.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	50.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-2,490	-10,834	13,324
– Gross Longs:	90,725	210,311	44,758
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	221,145	31,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-74.1	75.1	-27.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	40.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	49.3	12.3
– Net Position:	23,367	-23,263	-104
– Gross Longs:	70,653	109,803	33,163
– Gross Shorts:	47,286	133,066	33,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.9	18.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	22.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-24,496	29,637	-5,141
– Gross Longs:	55,979	72,177	16,359
– Gross Shorts:	80,475	42,540	21,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	95.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	2.2	-14.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	48.5	6.4
– Net Position:	5,950	-5,513	-437
– Gross Longs:	57,617	92,979	12,617
– Gross Shorts:	51,667	98,492	13,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	86.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	26.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	47.8	5.4
– Net Position:	68,881	-67,423	-1,458
– Gross Longs:	119,536	84,761	15,778
– Gross Shorts:	50,655	152,184	17,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	24.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	6.4	-30.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	37.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	25.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-33,390	42,432	-9,042
– Gross Longs:	107,680	138,560	29,116
– Gross Shorts:	141,070	96,128	38,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	58.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-41.7	-33.0

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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