InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,336 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (48,898 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-30,927 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-187,185 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,903 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,457 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,960 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,972,383	100	511,780	99	-508,691	1	-3,089	86
FedFunds	1,482,072	44	-153,154	36	165,097	65	-11,943	68
2-Year	4,111,534	96	-1,476,016	0	1,334,625	100	141,391	98
Long T-Bond	1,299,431	59	-130,079	38	82,852	42	47,227	83
10-Year	4,536,418	77	-636,456	21	584,114	76	52,342	85
5-Year	5,775,249	87	-1,429,427	3	1,292,579	97	136,848	97

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (56 percent) were leading the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (99.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (13.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 511,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 527,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	53.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	58.3	0.8
– Net Position:	511,780	-508,691	-3,089
– Gross Longs:	2,213,085	5,890,360	79,464
– Gross Shorts:	1,701,305	6,399,051	82,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	1.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-13.3	-1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	74.5	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	63.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-153,154	165,097	-11,943
– Gross Longs:	138,769	1,104,260	30,097
– Gross Shorts:	291,923	939,163	42,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	64.8	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-13.2	18.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,476,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -187,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,288,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	82.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	49.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,476,016	1,334,625	141,391
– Gross Longs:	392,729	3,387,065	269,898
– Gross Shorts:	1,868,745	2,052,440	128,507
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.7	5.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,398,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,429,427	1,292,579	136,848
– Gross Longs:	413,024	4,864,463	438,764
– Gross Shorts:	1,842,451	3,571,884	301,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.9	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	25.4	16.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -636,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 48,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -685,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	65.4	8.0
– Net Position:	-636,456	584,114	52,342
– Gross Longs:	482,555	3,552,088	415,343
– Gross Shorts:	1,119,011	2,967,974	363,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	76.2	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	15.0	-9.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -267,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -257,895 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	61.8	13.4
– Net Position:	-267,855	338,116	-70,261
– Gross Longs:	209,338	1,569,511	196,892
– Gross Shorts:	477,193	1,231,395	267,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	6.9	-9.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	76.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	69.7	11.1
– Net Position:	-130,079	82,852	47,227
– Gross Longs:	111,684	989,196	192,050
– Gross Shorts:	241,763	906,344	144,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	41.9	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.5	2.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -329,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	82.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	63.8	9.6
– Net Position:	-316,662	293,770	22,892
– Gross Longs:	99,089	1,304,089	174,300
– Gross Shorts:	415,751	1,010,319	151,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	40.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-22.7	-1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (46,709 contracts) with Wheat (30,137 contracts), Coffee (3,702 contracts), Lean Hogs (586 contracts) and Cotton (373 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-39,607 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,399 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,977 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,783 contracts), Cocoa (-4,735 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,399 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,650,437	23	168,990	8	-194,626	93	25,636	32
Gold	487,469	30	203,544	67	-226,945	36	23,401	43
Silver	139,753	32	36,303	70	-52,014	31	15,711	54
Copper	176,373	24	-1,994	30	2,139	73	-145	18
Palladium	21,271	72	-11,252	2	11,277	99	-25	40
Platinum	75,508	67	5,133	27	-9,183	74	4,050	22
Natural Gas	1,339,392	76	-111,079	32	89,350	71	21,729	32
Brent	124,294	5	-23,462	67	21,587	36	1,875	38
Heating Oil	307,563	39	32,795	82	-51,939	27	19,144	60
Soybeans	715,603	37	20,298	2	-2,961	96	-17,337	62
Corn	1,256,256	9	-110,439	7	137,754	95	-27,315	85
Coffee	208,686	24	34,260	63	-35,882	40	1,622	33
Sugar	853,428	38	165,469	50	-188,821	52	23,352	33
Wheat	405,309	69	-67,067	21	72,571	81	-5,504	43

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (78 percent) and Soybean Meal (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent) and Sugar (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (2 percent), Corn (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (14 percent), Soybean Oil (19 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (50.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.8 percent)
Coffee (62.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.8 percent)
Soybeans (1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.2 percent)
Live Cattle (19.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (21.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.9 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.4 percent)
Cocoa (78.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (83.0 percent)
Wheat (20.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-21 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Cotton (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.4 percent)
Sugar (-21.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (16.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (31.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (30.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-4.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	46.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	35.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-110,439	137,754	-27,315
– Gross Longs:	272,899	586,174	137,666
– Gross Shorts:	383,338	448,420	164,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.5	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.0	11.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 165,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	48.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.5	6.2
– Net Position:	165,469	-188,821	23,352
– Gross Longs:	249,241	413,191	76,231
– Gross Shorts:	83,772	602,012	52,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.6	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	25.4	-31.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	4.9
– Net Position:	34,260	-35,882	1,622
– Gross Longs:	67,450	76,883	11,747
– Gross Shorts:	33,190	112,765	10,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-17.7	21.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	55.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	56.3	9.9
– Net Position:	20,298	-2,961	-17,337
– Gross Longs:	116,761	399,901	53,751
– Gross Shorts:	96,463	402,862	71,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	95.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.9	-13.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	50.0	5.5
– Net Position:	1,256	-5,792	4,536
– Gross Longs:	92,474	234,618	31,193
– Gross Shorts:	91,218	240,410	26,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	79.6	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	14.3	8.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,628 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	35.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	62.3	5.7
– Net Position:	116,651	-138,507	21,856
– Gross Longs:	159,725	184,597	51,421
– Gross Shorts:	43,074	323,104	29,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.4	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.8	7.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	40.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	52.7	13.6
– Net Position:	37,458	-32,960	-4,498
– Gross Longs:	70,378	106,961	31,558
– Gross Shorts:	32,920	139,921	36,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	82.4	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	19.7	17.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	40.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	24.9	11.3
– Net Position:	-24,690	29,445	-4,755
– Gross Longs:	54,967	77,503	17,073
– Gross Shorts:	79,657	48,058	21,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	96.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	7.8	-21.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	48.1	6.2
– Net Position:	6,557	-5,291	-1,266
– Gross Longs:	62,704	89,387	11,020
– Gross Shorts:	56,147	94,678	12,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	86.8	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.2	-29.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	26.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	50.9	4.5
– Net Position:	66,911	-69,993	3,082
– Gross Longs:	122,246	73,390	15,894
– Gross Shorts:	55,335	143,383	12,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	21.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	10.0	1.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -67,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	40.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	22.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-67,067	72,571	-5,504
– Gross Longs:	119,965	162,290	29,963
– Gross Shorts:	187,032	89,719	35,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.6	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	11.6	-36.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by DowJones & S&P500 Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (24,916 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (17,766 contracts) the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,174 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (2,394 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,124 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (670 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (64 contracts),also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in the speculator bets this week was the VIX (-9,241 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,314,400	31	-47,261	58	-95	40	47,356	56
Nikkei 225	19,914	60	-1,690	55	1,036	42	654	39
Nasdaq-Mini	277,746	61	8,402	52	-13,580	27	5,178	85
DowJones-Mini	94,870	55	308	81	2,833	33	-3,141	29
VIX	406,711	75	-56,777	71	57,871	26	-1,094	91
Nikkei 225 Yen	65,677	65	17,459	88	2,061	17	-19,520	44

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (81 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (71 percent) and S&P500-Mini (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (71.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (80.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (49.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)

DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-23.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (-16.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-33.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	49.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	35.7	7.1
– Net Position:	-56,777	57,871	-1,094
– Gross Longs:	92,021	202,889	27,743
– Gross Shorts:	148,798	145,018	28,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	25.5	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	20.7	17.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	73.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.7	9.3
– Net Position:	-47,261	-95	47,356
– Gross Longs:	264,209	1,706,068	261,634
– Gross Shorts:	311,470	1,706,163	214,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	4.8	9.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	56.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	53.4	17.3
– Net Position:	308	2,833	-3,141
– Gross Longs:	26,253	53,465	13,228
– Gross Shorts:	25,945	50,632	16,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	32.9	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	78.4	-62.1	2.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	56.0	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	8,402	-13,580	5,178
– Gross Longs:	75,200	155,418	41,346
– Gross Shorts:	66,798	168,998	36,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	27.4	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-11.8	8.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	81.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	72.6	4.1
– Net Position:	-55,429	50,900	4,529
– Gross Longs:	69,069	455,710	27,535
– Gross Shorts:	124,498	404,810	23,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	57.7	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.7	15.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	68.2	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-1,690	1,036	654
– Gross Longs:	2,029	13,587	3,953
– Gross Shorts:	3,719	12,551	3,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	42.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	2.1	-10.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	91.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	79.9	1.7
– Net Position:	-49,858	44,941	4,917
– Gross Longs:	22,286	369,015	11,661
– Gross Shorts:	72,144	324,074	6,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	84.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	15.7	15.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

09 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real & 2-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is currently at a 99.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,244 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 13.5 this week. The speculator position registered 511,780 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -15,457 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 20.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -167 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 66 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 45.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 86,967 net contracts this week with a boost of 135,716 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nikkei 225 Yen

The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level sits at a 88.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 31.6 this week.

The speculator position was 17,459 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,476,016 net contracts this week with a drop of -187,185 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The speculator position was -267,855 net contracts this week with a downfall of -9,960 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,252 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,081 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was 20,298 net contracts this week with a decline by -30,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,429,427 net contracts this week with a drop by -30,927 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Dec

Week Ahead: US dollar set for explosive week?

By ForexTime

Big week ahead for USD due to CPI and Fed decision

Fed set to hold rates but economic projections in focus

USDInd under pressure despite recent rebound

Key levels of interest at 105.30, 104.26 & 102.45

Breakout/down on the horizon?

Even as the clock ticks down to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 8th December), traders are mindful of the flurry of high-risk events in the week ahead.

Some of the world’s largest central banks are set to make their final rate decisions for 2023 while top-tier economic data from major economies will be in focus. Given how this will be topped off with ‘Triple witching day’ for US markets, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for a wild ride!

Monday, 11th December

JPY: Japan M2 money stock
NZD: New Zealand home sales
GBP: CBI publishes latest economic forecast

Tuesday, 12th December

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
JPY: Japan PPI
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USD: US CPI report

Wednesday, 13th December

NZD: New Zealand food prices
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: Fed rate decision, US PPI

Thursday, 14th December

JPY: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
CHF: SNB rate decision
EUR: ECB rate decision
GBP: BOE rate decision
USD: US initial jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories

Friday, 15th December

CNH: China retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate
EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global PMI’s
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
USD: US industrial production, Empire manufacturing
SPX500: ‘Triple witching day’ for US markets

The scheduled data releases and events may present fresh opportunities across markets. However, our focus falls on the USD Index due to the US CPI report and Fed rate decision.

The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The USD Index could be gearing up for a significant move. Here are 3 reasons why:

US November CPI report

The November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Tuesday will be the final data point before the Fed rate decision.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022) to cool 3.1% from 3.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.0%.
CPI month-on-month (November 2023 vs October 2023) to remain unchanged at 0%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month.

Headline inflation is expected to have cooled further thanks to falling energy prices, while the annual core inflation unchanged at 4.0% – its lowest level in over two years. Further evidence of cooling prices may bolster speculation around the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the USDInd lower.
Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the USDInd could push higher ahead of the Fed decision.

Fed rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its final policy meeting for 2023.

However, the main attraction will be the updated economic projections and dot plot which were last provided on September 20th. Together with Jerome Powell’s post meeting conference may help investors gauge what to expect from the Fed in 2024.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by March 2024.

The USDInd could find itself under pressure if the Fed strikes a dovish and signals that rate cuts are on the cards from 2024.
Should the central bank push back on rate cut bets and signal that rates will remain higher for longer, this may give the USDInd a boost.

Technical forces

Despite pushing back above the 200-day SMA in recent days, the USDInd remains under pressure on the daily charts. Prices are respecting a bearish channel and trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA.

Should the USDInd slip back below the 200-day SMA, this may open the doors towards 102.45 and 101.80, respectively.
A solid breakout and daily close above 104.26 could push prices toward the 50-day SMA at 105.30 and 106.00, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

08 Dec

The ECB could cut rates as early as April 2024. Today, the focus is on the US labor market data

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.80%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.37% on Thursday.

A positive for stocks yesterday was Alphabet (GOOG) shares rising more than 5% after Google released Gemini, “the largest and most capable artificial intelligence model” the company has ever developed. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are up more than 5% after the company unveiled its new accelerator chip MI300, saying the processor will be able to run artificial intelligence programs faster than competing products.

US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 1k to 220k, matching expectations. Today, the US will release its monthly nonfarm labor market report. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.9%, and Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 180k in November compared to 150k in October. A strong (better than expected) report could undermine bets that the Fed will start easing its restrictive monetary policy sooner than expected, which would serve as a headwind for a rally in equities and bring back confidence in the dollar, at least temporarily. On the other hand, a weak Nonfarm report (worse than expected) will increase investor fears that the labor market and economy are cooling. If the data comes out in line with expectations, it is unlikely to do much to shake market expectations for several Fed rate cuts next year, which will only add to market volatility.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.10%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%. Recent economic data from Germany has heightened fears that the industrial sector will continue to have a negative impact on the Eurozone’s largest economy. Germany’s industrial sector is struggling: industrial production in Germany unexpectedly fell in October, a day after industrial orders in the country’s largest Eurozone economy also unexpectedly fell in the same month.

On Thursday, the euro fell to its lowest level against the Swiss franc in nearly nine years as markets bet on an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Currently, the difference between short rates in the Eurozone and Switzerland is around 225 basis points, but markets expect this to narrow to 150 in the next 12 months. This makes the euro less attractive than the Swiss franc. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at each meeting starting next April. Economists at the brokerage forecast that the ECB’s deposit rate will reach 2.25% by early 2025. BNP Paribas also expects the ECB to make its first interest rate cut in April 2024 and to “gradually reduce rates” over the year, citing weak economic activity and weakening inflation. BNP chief economist Luigi Speranza believes the ECB’s prime rate will be 3.25% by the end of 2024, down from 4% currently.

Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday continued Wednesday’s sharp decline. Crude oil fell to a five-month low. Concerns about a global crude oil supply glut continue to weigh on oil prices. In addition, doubts about whether the OPEC+ agreement to cut crude oil production will be honored are weighing on prices.

High inventories caused by carryover balances from the mild winter of 2022/23 and weak heating demand have depressed natural gas prices. As of December 3, natural gas storage in Europe was 94% full, above the 5-year seasonal average of 84% for this time of year.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.76%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.71%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative 0.07%.

The Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell sharply on Thursday, while the yen rose sharply to hit a 4-month high against the dollar. The yen saw a massive short-covering in the yen on Thursday as comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda in the Japanese parliament reinforced speculation that the BoJ would soon exit ultra-easy monetary policy. On Wednesday, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino discussed the potential impact of an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy on the economy. Their joint comments “fueled the fire.” Japanese five-year bond yields witnessed the most aggressive sell-off in a decade. However, Ueda remained of the view that policy would remain loose in the near term, citing the need to stimulate economic growth. This view was bolstered by Japan’s revised third-quarter gross domestic product data, which showed a bigger decline in economic growth than initially expected.

India’s central bank (RBI) left its key lending rate unchanged at 6.5% on Friday as growth in the world’s fastest-growing economy remains robust and the inflation outlook uncertain. The central bank also raised its economic growth forecast to 7% from 6.5% after stronger-than-expected growth in July-September. RBI forecasts consumer inflation at 5.4% in 2023-24.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,585.59 +36.25 (+0.80%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,117.38 +62.95 (+0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 16,628.99 −27.45 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,513.72 −1.66 (−0.022%)

USD Index 103.64 −0.51 (−0.49%)

News feed for 2023.12.08:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– German Final Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Dec

Oil quotations remain under pressure. The US labor market is cooling in the US

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.31% on Tuesday. A decline in bond yields on Tuesday supported technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100. Bond yields fell after the October JOLTS job openings report fell more than expected to a 2-year low, a sign that the labor market is cooling and dovish for Fed policy.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday was mixed. On the bullish side, the ISM Services Business Activity Index for November rose by 0.9 to 52.7, beating expectations of 52.3. In contrast, the October JOLTS Job Openings Index fell by 617,000 to a 2-year low of 8.733 million, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 9.300 million.

Procter & Gamble (PG) fell more than 3% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials’ list of losers after it said it expects $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion in restructuring costs for its operations in some corporate markets due to “challenging macroeconomic and financial conditions.” Nvidia (NVDA) stock price rose more than 2% and led the Nasdaq 100 higher after the company said it plans to partner with Japanese research organizations, companies, and startups to build artificial intelligence factories in Japan.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.74% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.31%. Economic news for European indices contributed to the gains. The S&P Eurozone Composite PMI for November was revised upward by 0.5 to 47.6 from the previously reported 47.1. The Eurozone Producer Price Index for October rose by 0.2% m/m to 9.4% y/y, matching expectations of 0.2% m/m and 9.5% y/y.

The ECB’s monthly inflation expectations survey showed that expectations for 1-year inflation in October were unchanged from September at 4.0%, above expectations of 3.8%. 3-year inflation expectations were 2.5%, unchanged from September and in line with expectations. ECB Executive Board spokesperson Schnabel said yesterday that another ECB interest rate hike is rather unlikely.

The build-up in US crude oil exports is putting pressure on oil prices. In addition, the rise in the dollar index to a one-week high on Tuesday was a negative factor for oil. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s actions to cut official oil selling prices for Asian buyers for January delivery is a negative factor for oil. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said OPEC+ may take additional measures if last week’s production cuts fail to balance the oil market.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 2.55% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.91% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.89% on Tuesday.

China’s Shanghai Composite index fell to a 5-week low as Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on China’s sovereign debt from stable to negative, weighing on global growth prospects. According to the median forecast of 28 economists surveyed, China’s exports are expected to decline 1.1% in November from a year earlier, following a 6.4% drop in October and continuing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month.

Australia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in the July-September quarter from the previous quarter, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of growth, albeit the slowest in a year. Australia’s economy barely grew in the third quarter as exports contracted and households suffering from soaring mortgage payments were reluctant to spend, suggesting higher rates are curbing demand.

Ryozo Himino, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), said the central bank should determine the timing and appropriate structure of the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy while closely monitoring developments in wages and prices. He also noted that Japan is making progress in exiting the protracted period when wage and price growth remained stagnant.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,567.18 −2.60 (−0.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,124.56 −79.88 (−0.22%)

DAX (DE40) 16,533.11 +128.35 (+0.78%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,489.84 −23.12 (−0.31%)

USD Index 103.96 +0.25 (+0.24%)

News feed for 2023.12.06:

– Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Financial Stability Report at 12:30 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA

By ForexTime

EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA

Bearish momentum building on D1 chart

Data heavy week could rock currency pair

Key levels of interest at 1.0850, 1.0770 and 1.0700

The EURUSD entered standby mode on Wednesday after closing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in three months.

Euro bears seem to be making a return after dragging prices from a multi-month high at 1.1016 with the recent breakdown below the 1.0830 level supporting the bearish case.

Zooming out on the weekly charts, the negative momentum could pick up after bulls failed to conquer the 1.0960 level which has acted as significant resistance in the past.

On the monthly charts, it’s still the same old story for the EURUSD with major support at 1.0500 and resistance at 1.1060.

The real action is back on the daily charts, especially after the daily close below 1.0830. Although prices are no longer trading within the bullish channel, some support can be seen around the 100-day SMA.

A potential breakout opportunity could be on the horizon with the right fundamental spark. Given how this is a data-heavy week for both Europe and the United States, this could translate to increased volatility on the EURUSD – especially on Friday when the NFP is released.

Should prices secure a strong daily close below 1.0770, this could open a path towards the 50-day SMA at 1.0700 and 1.0550.
A move back above the 200-day that pushes prices beyond 1.0850 could spark a move toward 1.0950 and 1.1030, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Dec

ECB likely to start rate cutting in Q1: deVere CEO

By George Prior

The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates next year, which could have far-reaching consequences for investors worldwide, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory asset management and fintech organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s comments come as ECB Board member, Isabel Schnabel, who has previously been one of the most hawkish of the Board, told Reuters on Tuesday that given a “remarkable” fall in inflation, the central bank can now take rate hikes off the table.

Euro zone inflation fell to 2.4% last month, down from above 10% a year earlier.

He comments: “When the hawks turn dovish, and as inflation falls to within touching distance, it is reasonable to assume that the ECB will start to cut rates.

“We now expect this to begin in the first quarter of 2024.”

If the ECB decides to cut interest rates, European investors are likely to experience both challenges and opportunities.

“On the one hand, lower interest rates can boost economic growth, leading to increased corporate profits and potentially higher stock prices.

“However, on the downside, savers and bond investors could face diminished returns. The repercussions of ECB interest rate cuts extend beyond Europe, influencing global bond markets.

“As the ECB lowers rates, it can be expected to trigger a broader trend of falling yields in bond markets worldwide.

“Fixed-income investors across the globe, seeking higher returns, may shift their attention to riskier assets.”

Another channel through which the ECB’s policy decisions affect global investors is currency markets. A rate cut by the ECB is likely to lead to a depreciation of the euro against other major currencies.

This can impact international investors holding euro-denominated assets, either positively or negatively, depending on their exposure and hedging strategies. For instance, European exporters may benefit from a weaker euro as it makes their goods more competitive in global markets.

Equity markets around the world are, of course, closely interconnected, and changes in one major economy can have ripple effects globally.

“A rate cut by the ECB could be expected to inject liquidity into financial markets, leading to a surge in equity prices. International investors could find opportunities for capital appreciation, especially in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and utilities.”

Nigel Green concludes: “We now expect that the ECB could be among the first of the major central banks to start cutting interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.

“Investors across the globe will be closely monitoring developments and potentially adjusting their strategies to adapt to the evolving economic landscape.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Dec

Investors urged to be vigilant to possibility of surging oil prices

By George Prior

Oil prices are increasingly likely to rise towards the end of the year and into 2024, which could hit your investment portfolio, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green, is speaking out after Saudi Arabia says that oil production cuts can “absolutely” continue past the first quarter of 2024 if necessary, and amid growing tensions in the Red Sea.

He comments: “The OPEC+ reductions to oil production announced last week of more than 2 million barrels a day – half of which come from Saudi Arabi – could run past the first quarter, according to the country’s Energy Minister.

“Although the cuts have had little impact on prices so far, it could be reasonably expected that as the cuts continue, they will begin to fuel price rises – especially as there’s no obvious sign that the Saudis are in a rush to remove the reductions to the oil they send to the rest of the world.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Another factor is the potential disruption to oil supplies, with reports saying that attacks on commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea are on the rise.

“The oil market has to date seemingly brushed off the increasing fears of soaring disruption, but the Red Sea is critical – all oil from the Middle East to Europe goes through it – and there are heightening issues in the region.”

The Pentagon on Sunday said a US warship and three commercial vessels had come under attack off the coast of Yemen.

This is driving concerns that Houthi rebels and their backers in Iran were intensifying their agenda as a result of the war in Gaza.

As a critical component of industrial production, transportation, and energy generation, oil plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets.

“Rising oil prices often lead to increased production costs across various industries. As businesses face higher expenses for transportation and raw materials, these costs are frequently passed on to consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures,” notes Nigel Green.

“Also, oil is priced in US dollars, and as oil prices rise, countries that are net importers of oil experience an increase in their trade deficits.

“This can lead to depreciation in the value of their currencies, affecting foreign exchange markets. Investors holding assets denominated in these currencies could experience declines in the value of their portfolios.

“Companies operating in energy-intensive sectors, such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture, may witness a decline in profitability as input costs rise. This, in turn, affects corporate earnings and can lead to changes in stock prices.”

He concludes: “We see a growing likelihood for oil prices to rise over the next six months due to the possibility of the extension of production cuts and increasing geopolitical tensions.

“The intricate relationship between oil and global financial markets underscores the need for investors to stay vigilant and possibly adapt their strategies and portfolios accordingly.”

About:

Energy Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Steel

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Nikkei 225 Yen

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Palladium

Soybeans

5-Year Bond

Even as the clock ticks down to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 8th December), traders are mindful of the flurry of high-risk events in the week ahead.

US November CPI report

Fed rate decision

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by March 2024.