COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 68

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators reduced British Pound bearish bets after GBPUSD record low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British pound sterling & Australian dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,419 contracts) and the Australian dollar (5,903 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,631 contracts), the Brazilian real (1,395 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (1,118 contracts), the Swiss franc (1,010 contracts), Bitcoin(447 contracts) and the Euro (348 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,722 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-13,289 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-1,276 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators cut bearish bets in Sterling after record low, UK budget upends markets

Highlighting the COT Currencies data is the gains in speculator positions for the British pound sterling. The sterling speculator positioning this week (through Tuesday) rose by more than +8,000 net speculator contracts and follows last week’s rise by over +13,000 contracts. This has cut the overall bearish position by more than 21,000 contracts in two weeks. Previously, the speculative position had fallen for three straight weeks and dropped to the lowest speculator standing in fourteen weeks. The speculator positioning has now been in a bearish level for 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to February 15th.

This was an interesting week for the sterling and the United Kingdom markets in general as a government announcement of a new budget (and tax cut) created havoc and volatility across markets. The news sent UK bonds into a tailspin and created financial ripple effects in stocks, mortgages and pension funds. The sterling also nose-dived sharply and slipped all the way to a new record low versus the US dollar at approximately the 1.0362 exchange rate on Monday. An emergency Bank of England bond-buying program soothed the markets and helped sterling bounce from the lows of Monday to finish the week higher by over 2.50 percent.

Overall in the big picture, the current sterling speculative positioning (at -46,424 contracts) is, like the Euro, relatively tame considering where the currency price resides (near record lows). The 2022 weekly average position for GBP is -44,153 contracts which shows that traders are not extremely bearish despite the exchange rate level. The next few weeks will give the markets important insights into whether the Bank of England has managed to stem the slide in sterling or if, like the Bank of Japan’s recent record yen intervention, the GBP retests its multi-decade lows against the dollar.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,046	80	30,562	76	-32,482	24	1,920	38
EUR	654,142	61	33,797	45	-58,440	59	24,643	15
GBP	281,805	87	-46,424	29	65,217	78	-18,793	8
JPY	244,655	77	-82,556	18	100,633	85	-18,077	17
CHF	44,492	30	-5,730	42	16,898	70	-11,168	20
CAD	140,889	24	-17,666	20	21,707	87	-4,041	22
AUD	152,301	46	-34,653	53	47,998	55	-13,345	20
NZD	45,240	34	-11,471	50	15,072	55	-3,601	10
MXN	173,045	37	-41,322	10	37,998	89	3,324	57
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	55,930	48	33,764	84	-35,031	17	1,267	80
Bitcoin	14,271	82	1,024	95	-1,221	0	197	17

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (94.8 percent) and the Brazilian Real (83.6 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (75.9 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (9.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Japanese Yen (18.0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (71.5 percent)
EuroFX (45.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (45.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (83.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.2 percent)
Bitcoin (94.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (26.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (23.5 percent), the Australian Dollar (22.8 percent) and Bitcoin (19.5 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-50.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Japanese Yen (-33.1 percent) followed by the New Zealand Dollar (-23.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.9 percent)
EuroFX (23.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (20.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-11.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-34.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-50.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-21.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-23.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-21.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.1 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.6	3.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.8	6.4
– Net Position:	30,562	-32,482	1,920
– Gross Longs:	47,424	2,153	5,481
– Gross Shorts:	16,862	34,635	3,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	24.2	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	13.0	-8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	53.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	62.2	8.2
– Net Position:	33,797	-58,440	24,643
– Gross Longs:	208,736	348,374	78,547
– Gross Shorts:	174,939	406,814	53,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	59.4	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-22.5	4.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	69.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	46.1	14.2
– Net Position:	-46,424	65,217	-18,793
– Gross Longs:	59,831	195,244	21,327
– Gross Shorts:	106,255	130,027	40,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	78.4	8.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.2	-10.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -82,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	80.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	39.0	16.2
– Net Position:	-82,556	100,633	-18,077
– Gross Longs:	22,706	195,930	21,476
– Gross Shorts:	105,262	95,297	39,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	84.7	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	28.6	-10.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	63.4	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	25.4	44.2
– Net Position:	-5,730	16,898	-11,168
– Gross Longs:	7,681	28,196	8,500
– Gross Shorts:	13,411	11,298	19,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	70.4	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	5.2	-9.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	53.4	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	38.0	24.1
– Net Position:	-17,666	21,707	-4,041
– Gross Longs:	33,677	75,267	29,978
– Gross Shorts:	51,343	53,560	34,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	86.8	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.0	44.9	-18.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	61.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	29.4	19.9
– Net Position:	-34,653	47,998	-13,345
– Gross Longs:	39,006	92,836	16,982
– Gross Shorts:	73,659	44,838	30,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	54.7	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.8	-11.6	-22.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	67.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	33.8	13.5
– Net Position:	-11,471	15,072	-3,601
– Gross Longs:	12,287	30,343	2,489
– Gross Shorts:	23,758	15,271	6,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	55.1	10.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	23.6	-18.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	44.5	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	22.6	1.9
– Net Position:	-41,322	37,998	3,324
– Gross Longs:	87,723	77,061	6,626
– Gross Shorts:	129,045	39,063	3,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.6	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	8.4	-1.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.6	23.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	85.7	3.4
– Net Position:	33,764	-35,031	1,267
– Gross Longs:	39,486	12,907	3,161
– Gross Shorts:	5,722	47,938	1,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	17.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-25.7	-10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.4	0.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	9.0	6.1
– Net Position:	1,024	-1,221	197
– Gross Longs:	11,902	64	1,061
– Gross Shorts:	10,878	1,285	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	5.2	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-46.7	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

01 Oct

Large COT Speculators raise 10-Year Treasury Bond bearish bets as prices drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes sees large drop for 10-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (78,319 contracts) and the Eurodollar (63,996 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (51,838 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (22,538 contracts) and the Long US Bond (2,987 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the 10-Year Bond (-135,602 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-30,952 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-15,994 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data is the sharp drop in the 10-Year Bond large speculator contracts this week. Speculator bets fell sharply by over -135,000 contracts and halted a 3-week streak of improving speculator positions. The recent improvement in positioning brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level in eight weeks (dipping below -230,000 contracts last week). This week’s sentiment decline pushes the overall spec level back above the -350,000 contract threshold and the speculator position remains in a bearish extreme level compared to the past three years (see strength scores in sections below). The bond market prices have continued to sell off as the Federal Reserve (and global central banks) have been sharply and consistently raising their benchmark interest rates to fight the effects of inflation. The 10-Year futures price this week closed at the lowest level since 2008 while the 10-Year yield is currently at 3.83 percent (as bond prices fall, yields rise).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,302,517	0	-2,159,775	13	2,415,330	84	-255,555	48
FedFunds	1,756,969	61	102,483	52	-86,405	49	-16,078	19
2-Year	2,028,931	11	-319,877	18	425,570	98	-105,693	5
Long T-Bond	1,213,680	47	-96,552	53	68,268	35	28,284	75
10-Year	3,766,782	48	-365,192	17	409,938	71	-44,746	69
5-Year	3,999,390	51	-441,966	19	567,488	82	-125,522	46

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (53.2 percent) and the Fed Funds (52.3 percent) lead the bonds and are the only two markets above their 3-year midpoint (50 percent is the midpoint).

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.3 percent) and the Eurodollar (13.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently followed by the 10-Year Bond (16.9 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (17.7 percent). All four of these markets are in extreme bearish strength levels at scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (42.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (18.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (29.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (35.9 percent)
Eurodollar (13.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (13.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 5-Year Bond (3.8 percent) and the Fed Funds (1.7 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-21.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Treasury Bond (-16.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (1.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-21.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-34.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-21.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-0.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
Eurodollar (13.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,159,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 63,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,223,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	68.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	39.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-2,159,775	2,415,330	-255,555
– Gross Longs:	622,892	5,714,545	397,316
– Gross Shorts:	2,782,667	3,299,215	652,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	84.2	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-14.1	18.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 102,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 78,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	71.5	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	76.5	2.6
– Net Position:	102,483	-86,405	-16,078
– Gross Longs:	265,540	1,257,032	29,182
– Gross Shorts:	163,057	1,343,437	45,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	49.4	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	0.8	-52.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -319,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -342,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	82.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	61.4	12.9
– Net Position:	-319,877	425,570	-105,693
– Gross Longs:	154,887	1,671,856	156,986
– Gross Shorts:	474,764	1,246,286	262,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	97.5	4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	34.5	-30.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -441,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -493,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	70.0	10.7
– Net Position:	-441,966	567,488	-125,522
– Gross Longs:	286,492	3,365,684	300,659
– Gross Shorts:	728,458	2,798,196	426,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	82.5	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.6	7.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -365,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -135,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	79.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	68.7	11.0
– Net Position:	-365,192	409,938	-44,746
– Gross Longs:	316,478	2,998,569	367,874
– Gross Shorts:	681,670	2,588,631	412,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	70.6	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-7.2	14.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -59,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -30,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	71.0	17.0
– Net Position:	-59,760	161,207	-101,447
– Gross Longs:	98,776	1,136,474	132,163
– Gross Shorts:	158,536	975,267	233,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	81.7	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	0.2	17.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -96,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	78.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-96,552	68,268	28,284
– Gross Longs:	71,317	950,661	172,811
– Gross Shorts:	167,869	882,393	144,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	35.0	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.8	1.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -381,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -365,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	83.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	59.4	7.8
– Net Position:	-381,907	335,912	45,995
– Gross Longs:	73,402	1,176,845	156,277
– Gross Shorts:	455,309	840,933	110,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	79.3	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	-0.8	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates investing Opinions

01 Oct

Metals Speculators continued to trim Gold bets to 179-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Palladium

The COT precious metals speculator bets were slightly lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (2,398 contracts) with Palladium (250 contracts) showing a small positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-13,641 contracts) and Copper (-7,470 contracts) with Platinum (-2,229 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data continues to be the downtrend of the Gold speculator positioning. Speculators dropped their Gold bets for the seventh consecutive week this week and that has now diminished the bullish Gold speculator position by a total of -90,770 contracts over the past 7-week period. This sentiment decline has pushed the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +52,081 contracts) down to the lowest level of the past 179 weeks, dating back to April 23rd of 2019.

The Gold spot price has been in a downtrend in the second half of this year and has fallen by approximately 20 percent since reaching a high of approximately $2070.60 in March. This week saw the Gold price bounce off the $1615 support level to finish the week over 1 percent higher.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,504,991	3	226,080	4	-246,872	98	20,792	35
Gold	457,061	1	52,081	0	-62,138	100	10,057	1
Silver	129,000	0	758	15	-6,860	89	6,102	0
Copper	173,661	13	-27,756	16	28,884	86	-1,128	19
Palladium	6,080	1	-831	18	1,236	82	-405	20
Platinum	58,994	20	161	9	-2,525	93	2,364	0
Natural Gas	943,241	0	-152,124	33	121,135	69	30,989	54
Brent	167,444	14	-41,257	42	40,490	61	767	20
Heating Oil	290,265	31	11,414	59	-21,625	48	10,211	34
Soybeans	699,311	27	80,051	38	-50,206	71	-29,845	21
Corn	1,347,278	11	296,622	68	-229,436	39	-67,186	4
Coffee	185,149	1	44,680	77	-46,664	27	1,984	18
Sugar	710,887	2	48,601	47	-56,409	57	7,808	18
Wheat	290,771	2	2,735	23	4,675	66	-7,410	72

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Palladium (18.2 percent) took the lead with the highest current score in the metals category (Copper had led the past bunch of months).

The metals category continues to have a very rough time in this investing environment and the speculators sentiment continues to be lacking as all five of the metals markets are in bearish extreme levels with scores below 20 percent.

The lowest scores are led by Gold at 0.0 percent (at the bottom of its 3-year range) and is followed by Platinum (9.3 percent), Silver (14.9 percent) and Copper (15.9 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.5 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (15.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.7 percent)
Platinum (9.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (12.3 percent)
Palladium (18.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (4.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (0.4 percent) fills out the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-29.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Platinum (-3.7 percent) followed by Silver (-3.0 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-25.6 percent)
Silver (-3.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.0 percent)
Copper (0.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.1 percent)
Palladium (4.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 52,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	30.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	44.1	6.6
– Net Position:	52,081	-62,138	10,057
– Gross Longs:	207,154	139,361	40,325
– Gross Shorts:	155,073	201,499	30,268
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.5	28.3	-6.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	38.0	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	43.3	11.3
– Net Position:	758	-6,860	6,102
– Gross Longs:	49,984	48,993	20,681
– Gross Shorts:	49,226	55,853	14,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	88.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	5.3	-13.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	50.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	33.6	9.1
– Net Position:	-27,756	28,884	-1,128
– Gross Longs:	50,726	87,188	14,608
– Gross Shorts:	78,482	58,304	15,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	85.8	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.0	-2.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	42.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	46.6	7.3
– Net Position:	161	-2,525	2,364
– Gross Longs:	23,944	24,942	6,675
– Gross Shorts:	23,783	27,467	4,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	92.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.8	-14.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	57.9	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	37.6	21.8
– Net Position:	-831	1,236	-405
– Gross Longs:	1,519	3,523	922
– Gross Shorts:	2,350	2,287	1,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	81.7	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-1.7	-27.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

01 Oct

Soft Commodities Speculator Bets go lower led by Soybean Meal, Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes go lower this week led by Soybean Meal, Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (11,256 contracts) with Wheat (6,764 contracts) and Coffee (3,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybean Meal (-11,395 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-10,484 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,400 contracts), Corn (-9,055 contracts), Soybeans (-4,722 contracts), Cocoa (-3,818 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,424 contracts) and Cotton (-1,875 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,504,991	3	226,080	4	-246,872	98	20,792	35
Gold	457,061	1	52,081	0	-62,138	100	10,057	1
Silver	129,000	0	758	15	-6,860	89	6,102	0
Copper	173,661	13	-27,756	16	28,884	86	-1,128	19
Palladium	6,080	1	-831	18	1,236	82	-405	20
Platinum	58,994	20	161	9	-2,525	93	2,364	0
Natural Gas	943,241	0	-152,124	33	121,135	69	30,989	54
Brent	167,444	14	-41,257	42	40,490	61	767	20
Heating Oil	290,265	31	11,414	59	-21,625	48	10,211	34
Soybeans	699,311	27	80,051	38	-50,206	71	-29,845	21
Corn	1,347,278	11	296,622	68	-229,436	39	-67,186	4
Coffee	185,149	1	44,680	77	-46,664	27	1,984	18
Sugar	710,887	2	48,601	47	-56,409	57	7,808	18
Wheat	290,771	2	2,735	23	4,675	66	-7,410	72

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (91.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (77.4 percent) and Corn (67.9 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score below 20 percent. The next markets with the lowest scores are Wheat (22.6 percent) and Soybeans (37.9 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.1 percent)
Sugar (46.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (44.3 percent)
Coffee (77.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybeans (37.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (97.9 percent)
Live Cattle (55.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.3 percent)
Cotton (45.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (46.5 percent)
Cocoa (7.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (22.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (9.8 percent), Coffee (9.7 percent) and Soybean Oil (9.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Wheat (6.0 percent) and Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cocoa (-6.9 percent) followed by Cotton (-1.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.3 percent)
Coffee (9.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybeans (-1.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (-1.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.3 percent)
Cocoa (-6.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 296,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 305,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	44.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	61.9	13.7
– Net Position:	296,622	-229,436	-67,186
– Gross Longs:	415,961	604,188	117,870
– Gross Shorts:	119,339	833,624	185,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	39.2	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-9.0	-7.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	54.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	62.8	8.7
– Net Position:	48,601	-56,409	7,808
– Gross Longs:	171,124	390,232	69,802
– Gross Shorts:	122,523	446,641	61,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	57.5	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	1.0	-5.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	44.5	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	69.7	3.8
– Net Position:	44,680	-46,664	1,984
– Gross Longs:	55,454	82,448	9,049
– Gross Shorts:	10,774	129,112	7,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	26.9	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.3	1.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	52.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	59.8	10.4
– Net Position:	80,051	-50,206	-29,845
– Gross Longs:	149,774	367,744	43,219
– Gross Shorts:	69,723	417,950	73,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	71.2	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.4	2.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	48.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	63.5	5.4
– Net Position:	54,987	-60,959	5,972
– Gross Longs:	91,132	196,322	28,053
– Gross Shorts:	36,145	257,281	22,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	61.9	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.9	0.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	39.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	76.1	6.2
– Net Position:	115,075	-138,371	23,296
– Gross Longs:	129,268	151,416	46,999
– Gross Shorts:	14,193	289,787	23,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	11.0	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.3	-2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	33.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	53.6	12.0
– Net Position:	60,967	-58,327	-2,640
– Gross Longs:	112,897	94,742	31,567
– Gross Shorts:	51,930	153,069	34,207
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	33.4	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.6	-0.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	34.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	50.3	12.7
– Net Position:	39,631	-31,593	-8,038
– Gross Longs:	83,521	71,741	18,012
– Gross Shorts:	43,890	103,334	26,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	56.1	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	21.0	2.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 42,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	50.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	70.1	4.5
– Net Position:	42,079	-44,016	1,937
– Gross Longs:	70,391	109,629	11,741
– Gross Shorts:	28,312	153,645	9,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	57.5	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	3.9	-25.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	45.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	43.4	3.5
– Net Position:	-9,759	5,660	4,099
– Gross Longs:	102,300	141,689	14,973
– Gross Shorts:	112,059	136,029	10,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	93.1	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.4	15.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	40.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	39.1	11.9
– Net Position:	2,735	4,675	-7,410
– Gross Longs:	87,885	118,360	27,059
– Gross Shorts:	85,150	113,685	34,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	66.3	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-3.9	-9.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

01 Oct

Speculators sharply raised their SP500-Mini bets for 2nd week to least bearish level since June

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 Mini and Nikkei 225

The COT stock market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning on the week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (69,250 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 USD (6,161 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (4,434 contracts) and the Russell 2000 Mini (777 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,796 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (-3,533 contracts) and the VIX (-926 contracts).

Highlighting the COT Stocks data this week is another week of big moves in the SP500-Mini speculator contracts. The SP500-Mini speculator bets rebounded sharply for a second straight week and gained by more than +60,000 contracts for the second consecutive week. The past 2-week rise in speculator bets now totals +130,803 contracts. The SP500-Mini speculator position is now below the -200,000 contracts for the first time since July 5th and at the least bearish level since June 28th. Despite the positive speculator sentiment last week, the SP500 index sold off sharply to end the week and closed at its lowest level since November of 2020.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,233,878	5	-150,201	28	232,967	81	-82,766	9
Nikkei 225	14,070	10	1,520	85	-1,541	22	21	29
Nasdaq-Mini	282,054	61	-48	75	24,473	42	-24,425	6
DowJones-Mini	67,055	24	-19,230	14	20,428	86	-1,198	32
VIX	331,042	36	-82,724	68	90,378	33	-7,654	54
Nikkei 225 Yen	43,115	19	-650	32	14,383	67	-13,733	47

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nikkei USD (84.7 percent) leads the stock markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The Nasdaq-Mini (75.0 percent) and the VIX (67.8 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (7.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) with both being in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (67.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (28.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (15.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (75.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (77.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (7.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (84.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EAFE-Mini (27.3 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (25.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks. The Nikkei USD (22.1 percent), the VIX (9.7 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (5.8 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-17.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the Nasdaq-Mini (-3.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (9.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-17.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-3.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-9.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (22.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-12.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -82,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	55.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	27.7	9.6
– Net Position:	-82,724	90,378	-7,654
– Gross Longs:	58,980	182,097	23,991
– Gross Shorts:	141,704	91,719	31,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	33.1	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-7.3	-22.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -150,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 69,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -219,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	66.5	12.1
– Net Position:	-150,201	232,967	-82,766
– Gross Longs:	262,797	1,717,571	186,623
– Gross Shorts:	412,998	1,484,604	269,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	81.4	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-16.4	-3.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	60.6	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	30.1	19.1
– Net Position:	-19,230	20,428	-1,198
– Gross Longs:	14,309	40,632	11,590
– Gross Shorts:	33,539	20,204	12,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	85.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	15.5	6.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	60.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	51.7	20.3
– Net Position:	-48	24,473	-24,425
– Gross Longs:	74,731	170,352	32,818
– Gross Shorts:	74,779	145,879	57,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.0	41.6	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	5.5	-3.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	87.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	67.8	4.0
– Net Position:	-106,061	107,336	-1,275
– Gross Longs:	43,291	479,622	20,778
– Gross Shorts:	149,352	372,286	22,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	91.3	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.7	1.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	46.7	18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	57.6	18.4
– Net Position:	1,520	-1,541	21
– Gross Longs:	4,860	6,569	2,611
– Gross Shorts:	3,340	8,110	2,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	21.9	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-24.5	3.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	92.2	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	89.6	1.8
– Net Position:	-11,275	10,118	1,157
– Gross Longs:	19,991	365,741	8,306
– Gross Shorts:	31,266	355,623	7,149
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	74.5	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-25.5	-10.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News

01 Oct

Weekly Energy COT Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas & Bloomberg Commodity Index

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas and Bloomberg Commodity Index

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (3,587 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,703 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,798 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-3,354 contracts), Gasoline (-3,013 contracts) and Heating Oil (-2,683 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,504,991	3	226,080	4	-246,872	98	20,792	35
Gold	457,061	1	52,081	0	-62,138	100	10,057	1
Silver	129,000	0	758	15	-6,860	89	6,102	0
Copper	173,661	13	-27,756	16	28,884	86	-1,128	19
Palladium	6,080	1	-831	18	1,236	82	-405	20
Platinum	58,994	20	161	9	-2,525	93	2,364	0
Natural Gas	943,241	0	-152,124	33	121,135	69	30,989	54
Brent	167,444	14	-41,257	42	40,490	61	767	20
Heating Oil	290,265	31	11,414	59	-21,625	48	10,211	34
Soybeans	699,311	27	80,051	38	-50,206	71	-29,845	21
Corn	1,347,278	11	296,622	68	-229,436	39	-67,186	4
Coffee	185,149	1	44,680	77	-46,664	27	1,984	18
Sugar	710,887	2	48,601	47	-56,409	57	7,808	18
Wheat	290,771	2	2,735	23	4,675	66	-7,410	72

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.4 percent) and Heating Oil (59.2 percent) lead the energy markets currently. These are the only two markets that have scores above 50 percent or above the midpoint of the 3-year range.

On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is followed by Gasoline at 16.1 percent. Both of these markets are currently in bearish extreme positions with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (47.6 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (31.8 percent)
Gasoline (16.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.1 percent)
Heating Oil (59.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (63.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (68.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. The only other positive mover in the latest trends data was WTI Crude Oil at 2.9 percent.

Heating Oil (-19.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-9.4 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-9.1 percent)
Gasoline (-3.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (1.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-19.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-15.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 226,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	39.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	56.2	3.6
– Net Position:	226,080	-246,872	20,792
– Gross Longs:	333,933	598,428	75,054
– Gross Shorts:	107,853	845,300	54,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	97.6	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-2.0	-5.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	53.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	29.0	3.9
– Net Position:	-41,257	40,490	767
– Gross Longs:	25,696	89,127	7,236
– Gross Shorts:	66,953	48,637	6,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	60.6	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	10.3	-12.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -152,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -155,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	43.3	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	30.5	3.2
– Net Position:	-152,124	121,135	30,989
– Gross Longs:	142,021	408,871	61,287
– Gross Shorts:	294,145	287,736	30,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	69.1	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	12.1	-16.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	46.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	66.4	6.4
– Net Position:	44,060	-46,904	2,844
– Gross Longs:	78,843	111,947	18,200
– Gross Shorts:	34,783	158,851	15,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	86.4	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	5.5	-14.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	53.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	60.8	9.7
– Net Position:	11,414	-21,625	10,211
– Gross Longs:	39,591	154,778	38,397
– Gross Shorts:	28,177	176,403	28,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	48.2	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	19.6	-16.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	74.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	61.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,614	7,445	169
– Gross Longs:	14,652	45,267	271
– Gross Shorts:	22,266	37,822	102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	21.9	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.8	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

25 Sep

Euro Speculator bets go bullish for 3rd week to lead the COT Changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

This data is through Tuesday and one day before the US Federal Reserve lifted the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3 to 3.25 percent.

Euro & British pound lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (45,286 contracts) with the Australian dollar (17,294 contracts), the British pound sterling (13,243 contracts), the Swiss franc (565 contracts) and Bitcoin (451 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-10,369 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-7,738 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-7,288 contracts), the Mexican peso (-2,652 contracts), the Japanese yen (-588 contracts) and the Brazilian real (-584 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Forex data this week was the sharp change in speculator positioning for the Euro again this week. The speculative positioning for the Euro jumped by a total of +45,286 contracts this week following last week’s gain of +24,512 contracts and a rise of +11,327 contracts in the week before that.

Overall, Euro speculator positions have risen by +81,125 contracts in just the past three weeks and have now taken the speculator standing out of bearish territory for the first time in fifteen weeks (current net position of +33,449 contracts). This is a surprising turnabout for this market because speculators (especially in currencies) have tended to be trend-followers historically. They buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling.

The Euro has been on a historic decline with prices hitting levels below parity that have not been touched for approximately twenty years. However, the Euro futures speculators have been going the opposite way and increasing their bullish positioning as the currency falls. Will this positioning hold up? Are the speculators buying at the right time (betting on catching the low)? These interesting questions will resolve themselves in the future but it is an example of a current situation that shows that markets and traders can change their tune or flip usual behavior on its head, at least in the short-term.

The Euro price, meanwhile, followed through lower to close out the week. The EURUSD currency pair fell by more than 3 percent and ended the week at the 0.9692 exchange rate – the lowest level since October of 2002.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	54,292	76	27,931	72	-30,775	27	2,844	48
EUR	657,952	63	33,449	45	-52,310	61	18,861	6
GBP	266,295	77	-54,843	22	73,488	84	-18,645	8
JPY	250,892	81	-81,280	19	97,513	83	-16,233	20
CHF	40,937	23	-6,740	39	12,986	64	-6,246	36
CAD	160,314	37	2,056	42	892	69	-2,948	24
AUD	150,544	45	-40,556	47	52,128	58	-11,572	24
NZD	47,884	39	-12,589	50	16,791	56	-4,202	3
MXN	172,650	36	-28,033	15	23,741	83	4,292	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,500	42	32,369	82	-34,071	18	1,702	85
Bitcoin	13,880	80	577	87	-812	0	235	18

Bitcoin and Brazilian Real lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (87.0 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) lead the currency markets this week near the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). The US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish positions.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.4 percent)
EuroFX (45.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (31.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.8 percent)
Bitcoin (87.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.1 percent)

Brazilian Real, Euro and Aussie lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (20.9 percent), the Australian Dollar (15.8 percent), Bitcoin (14.1 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent), Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) were the leaders in the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.1 percent)
EuroFX (20.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (33.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	60.8	4.9
– Net Position:	27,931	-30,775	2,844
– Gross Longs:	45,704	2,226	5,479
– Gross Shorts:	17,773	33,001	2,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	26.9	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	18.0	-6.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 45,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	53.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	61.9	8.6
– Net Position:	33,449	-52,310	18,861
– Gross Longs:	206,564	354,891	75,546
– Gross Shorts:	173,115	407,201	56,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	61.2	5.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-18.9	-2.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	74.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	46.5	15.2
– Net Position:	-54,843	73,488	-18,645
– Gross Longs:	41,289	197,346	21,738
– Gross Shorts:	96,132	123,858	40,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	84.0	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	14.6	-2.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -81,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	75.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	37.0	15.4
– Net Position:	-81,280	97,513	-16,233
– Gross Longs:	34,767	190,267	22,337
– Gross Shorts:	116,047	92,754	38,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	83.2	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.6	29.5	-8.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	54.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	22.8	40.7
– Net Position:	-6,740	12,986	-6,246
– Gross Longs:	8,167	22,309	10,421
– Gross Shorts:	14,907	9,323	16,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	64.2	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-10.3	11.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	45.7	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	45.2	23.0
– Net Position:	2,056	892	-2,948
– Gross Longs:	47,913	73,298	33,975
– Gross Shorts:	45,857	72,406	36,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	69.5	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	25.5	-23.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	61.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	27.1	17.9
– Net Position:	-40,556	52,128	-11,572
– Gross Longs:	38,797	92,900	15,434
– Gross Shorts:	79,353	40,772	27,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	57.8	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-5.5	-23.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	69.8	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	34.7	14.1
– Net Position:	-12,589	16,791	-4,202
– Gross Longs:	11,646	33,408	2,544
– Gross Shorts:	24,235	16,617	6,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	56.3	3.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	19.6	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	38.9	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	25.2	1.8
– Net Position:	-28,033	23,741	4,292
– Gross Longs:	96,671	67,201	7,445
– Gross Shorts:	124,704	43,460	3,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	82.7	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.4	5.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	12.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	78.6	2.7
– Net Position:	32,369	-34,071	1,702
– Gross Longs:	41,979	6,410	3,109
– Gross Shorts:	9,610	40,481	1,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	18.0	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-29.4	-5.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.4	1.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	7.6	6.3
– Net Position:	577	-812	235
– Gross Longs:	11,157	245	1,107
– Gross Shorts:	10,580	1,057	872
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	25.0	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-36.0	-1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

25 Sep

Soybean Meal and Gold Top Bullish & Bearish COT Speculator Extremes Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years using a range from 0 to 100. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. You can compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data tables or cot leaders table.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal comes in at the most bullish extreme standing this week as speculator bets have been on a strong rise in this market. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently right near the top of its 3-year range with at a 97.9 percent score.

Overall, the Soybean Meal position of +126,470 net speculator contracts is the most bullish position of the past twenty-six weeks.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled 577 net contracts this week which was a change by 451 contracts from last week.

Brazilian Real

The Brazil Real speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week as traders have been adding to their bullish positioning in recent weeks. The BRL speculator level is now at an 82 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 32,369 net contracts this week and saw a small dip by -584 contracts from last week. The speculator gross long position was a total of 41,979 contracts versus the total speculator gross short position of 9,610 contracts.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gold

The Gold speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as traders have been bailing sharply out of their futures positions. The Gold speculator level has fallen to a zero percent score of its 3-year range. This means that speculator sentiment is at its lowest level of the past three years currently.

The speculator position was 65,722 net contracts this week, a weekly drop of -31,622 contracts from last week and the lowest level in the past 178 weeks.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini stock market is the next up in bearish extreme positioning this week. The Russell 2000 Mini is at just a 7.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

Speculative traders have been increasing their bearish bets for the Russell Mini for three straight weeks and the current net position (-106,838 net contracts) has now fallen to the most bearish level of the past five weeks.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at an 8 percent score out of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,878 net contracts this week which was a change by 12,821 contracts from last week.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as fourth most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year speculator level resides at an 11 percent score out of its 3-year range and the overall 5-Year Bond net position has been in a bearish position since April of 2021.

The overall net speculator position was a total of -493,804 net contracts this week and rose by a total of +27,655 contracts from last week.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Opinions

25 Sep

Large drop in Gold Speculator bets leads COT Metals Changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Large drop in Gold bets leads Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher overall this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (4,269 contracts) with Silver (3,000 contracts) and Palladium (192 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-31,622 contracts) with Copper (-1,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the sharp and continued decline in the Gold futures bets. Speculators dropped their Gold net positions this week by largest one-week amount in the past thirty-three weeks. The Gold position has now fallen for six straight weeks and by a total of -77,129 contracts over that 6-week time period. This bearishness has pushed the overall net positioning to a total of just +65,722 contracts, marking the lowest overall standing for Gold since April 23rd of 2019, a span of 178 weeks. The current investing environment has been a challenging one for Gold and the futures price this week touched the lowest level since April of 2020. Gold closed the week down over 1.6% and right around the $1,655.60 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.7 percent) leads the metals markets with a score that is just outside an extreme bearish position of under 20 percent.

All of the other metals markets we cover continue to have scores under 20 percent with Gold at the lowest with 0.0 percent or the lowest level in three years. Silver (12.3 percent) is up over three percent from last week followed by Platinum (12.3 percent) and Palladium (16.8 percent). Platinum and Palladium are also higher than last week’s scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (12.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (21.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (12.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.6 percent)
Palladium (16.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Palladium (5.0 percent) and Platinum (2.1 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-26.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores with a big negative jump from last week’s -9.4 percent trend score and is followed by Silver at a trend score of -5.0 percent.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-26.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.4 percent)
Silver (-5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.2 percent)
Copper (6.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.9 percent)
Palladium (5.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual COT Metals Market Charts:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	30.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	46.3	6.6
– Net Position:	65,722	-75,428	9,706
– Gross Longs:	214,557	141,862	40,500
– Gross Shorts:	148,835	217,290	30,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	25.5	-5.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.3	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	42.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-1,640	-5,629	7,269
– Gross Longs:	52,323	50,661	21,383
– Gross Shorts:	53,963	56,290	14,114
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.9	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	7.5	-16.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	50.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	36.5	9.9
– Net Position:	-20,286	23,215	-2,929
– Gross Longs:	46,773	82,693	13,179
– Gross Shorts:	67,059	59,478	16,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	81.6	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-3.3	-21.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	38.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	47.3	6.9
– Net Position:	2,390	-5,496	3,106
– Gross Longs:	27,756	24,281	7,432
– Gross Shorts:	25,366	29,777	4,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.1	5.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-1.8	-1.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	59.9	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	38.9	18.5
– Net Position:	-1,081	1,261	-180
– Gross Longs:	1,371	3,592	930
– Gross Shorts:	2,452	2,331	1,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	81.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-4.4	-6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

25 Sep

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond Speculator bets rebounded before Fed Hikes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond bets rebound in Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (653,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (123,299 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (27,655 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,766 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-23,797 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-22,022 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-19,316 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-4,568 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data this week was the rebound in both the Eurodollar and the 10-Year Bonds positioning. Both of these bond markets continue to have very bearish speculator positions and it has been that way since global central banks started to get more hawkish in raising their benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

The Eurodollar turned from a bullish speculator position to bearish in May of 2021 while the 10-Year saw its speculative positioning flip bullish to bearish in October of 2021.

This week saw sharp gains for each of these markets with the Eurodollar jumping by a total of +653,551 net contracts and the 10-Year by +123,299 net contracts.

The bonds data was heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming out the next day that resulted in a 75 basis point hike. This likely prompted traders to take off positions that were deemed risky or to try and position for possible surprise outcomes of the Fed meeting.

The Eurodollar speculative change data for that Tuesday was the result of speculators sharply dropping their gross short positions by a total of -709,309 contracts. This is compared to a -55,758 contract decline in the gross long positions.

The 10-Year change, meanwhile, was the result of speculators raising their gross long positions by a total of +100,016 contracts in addition to reducing their gross short contracts by -23,283 to get the weekly net change of 123,299 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,320,365	0	-2,223,771	12	2,509,931	86	-286,160	41
FedFunds	1,719,198	58	24,164	43	-17,273	58	-6,891	42
2-Year	2,020,402	11	-342,415	13	438,181	100	-95,766	9
Long T-Bond	1,235,652	51	-99,539	52	78,958	39	20,581	69
10-Year	3,700,929	44	-229,590	38	342,348	63	-112,758	53
5-Year	3,974,321	50	-493,804	11	639,728	91	-145,924	41

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range. The Fed Funds (42.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (10.8 percent), the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (45.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) and the Fed Funds (2.9 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-52.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,223,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 653,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,877,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	69.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	39.2	8.2
– Net Position:	-2,223,771	2,509,931	-286,160
– Gross Longs:	556,537	5,772,986	398,527
– Gross Shorts:	2,780,308	3,263,055	684,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	85.9	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.4	7.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	71.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	72.7	2.7
– Net Position:	24,164	-17,273	-6,891
– Gross Longs:	217,631	1,232,601	39,438
– Gross Shorts:	193,467	1,249,874	46,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	57.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.5	13.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -342,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -358,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.9	12.4
– Net Position:	-342,415	438,181	-95,766
– Gross Longs:	139,358	1,688,474	154,106
– Gross Shorts:	481,773	1,250,293	249,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	100.0	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	40.5	-18.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -493,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	68.6	11.0
– Net Position:	-493,804	639,728	-145,924
– Gross Longs:	266,452	3,366,448	291,033
– Gross Shorts:	760,256	2,726,720	436,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	91.3	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.3	-4.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -229,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	68.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-229,590	342,348	-112,758
– Gross Longs:	397,050	2,868,123	334,645
– Gross Shorts:	626,640	2,525,775	447,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	62.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.2	-3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	70.0	18.0
– Net Position:	-28,808	152,285	-123,477
– Gross Longs:	113,657	1,109,324	123,083
– Gross Shorts:	142,465	957,039	246,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.4	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-1.3	-8.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -99,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	77.1	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.7	12.2
– Net Position:	-99,539	78,958	20,581
– Gross Longs:	76,399	952,947	170,936
– Gross Shorts:	175,938	873,989	150,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	38.8	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	19.8	-2.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -365,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	59.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-365,913	330,143	35,770
– Gross Longs:	71,306	1,152,370	147,949
– Gross Shorts:	437,219	822,227	112,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	76.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.0	3.3

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