InvestMacro

DAX Index at historic highs. Progress in US-China talks triggered a rise in indices on Monday

Stocks in the US traded lower on Friday afternoon as investors became more cautious ahead of trade talks between the US and China. At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.29% (for the week +0.18%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.71% (for the week +0.05%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.27% (for the week +2.07%). Sentiment briefly improved following the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and UK, but concerns remain that negotiations with China may not succeed.

On the corporate front, Pinterest rose by 5.4% amid strong ad revenue projections, while Expedia fell by 7.7%, missing expectations.

The US futures rose Monday as the US said “substantial progress” in trade talks with China after two days of negotiations in Switzerland over the weekend. The US officials highlighted a deal to reduce the trade deficit, while Chinese leaders characterized the outcome as reaching an “important consensus”. Asian stocks and European futures also rose.

In Canada, the April employment report showed a net gain of 7,400 jobs, beating expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9%, the highest level since November, underscoring the vulnerability of the tariff-prone manufacturing sector. Market odds suggest the odds of a rate cut in June are more than even, after the Bank of Canada noted high levels of household debt and hedge fund activity at bond auctions in its Financial System Review.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.63% (up +1.54% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.64% higher (+0.10% for the week), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.48% (+0.34% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.27% (+0.68% for the week). On Friday, the Frankfurt DAX Index rose by 0.6%, surpassing the 23,500 mark and reaching a new all-time high, continuing Thursday’s gains and following the dynamics of global markets. The rise was driven by the US-UK trade agreement, which reinforced expectations of progress in a broader US-EU agreement.

Norway’s annualized consumer inflation rate eased to 2.5% in April 2025 from 2.6% in the previous month, matching market expectations. This marked the second consecutive month of slowing inflation.

Ukrainian and European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12. The leaders threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with new “massive” sanctions if he did not comply.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.8% to hit $61 a barrel on Friday, posting a weekly gain of more than 4%, as easing trade tensions between the US and China boosted market sentiment. Optimism was fueled by news that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China’s vice premier in Switzerland on May 10, signaling possible progress in resolving trade disputes.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 3.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.24%. Asian markets jumped at the open on Monday. The rally followed a significant rise in US futures amid signs of progress in trade talks between the US and China over the weekend. Investor sentiment was further boosted by easing geopolitical tensions, including a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan and Ukrainian President Zelensky’s willingness to meet with Putin.

Chinese consumer prices in April 2025 were 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining the same pace for the second month and in line with market expectations. This is the third consecutive month of consumer price deflation, driven by the combined impact of ongoing trade tensions with the US, weak domestic demand, and continued employment uncertainty. China’s producer prices in April 2025 came in at 2.7% y/y, slightly short of the market consensus expecting 2.6% y/y, following 2.5% y/y in March. It was the 31st consecutive month of producer price deflation and the sharpest pace since last October.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.642 on Monday and rose for the second consecutive session as progress in US-China trade talks over the weekend boosted risk appetite. Markets now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the money rate to 3.1% by the end of the year, down from previous expectations of 2.85%. The RBA is expected to cut the rate again by 25 basis points at its meeting next week.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,659.91 −4.03 (−0.071%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,249.38 −119.07 (−0.29%)

DAX (DE40) 23,499.32 +146.63 (+0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,554.80 +23.19 (+0.27%)

USD Index 100.42 −0.22 (−0.21%)

News feed for: 2025.05.12

US Federal Monthly Budget Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 May

Markets rally on 90-day US-China trade truce

By ForexTime

Risk-on returns on China-US trade truce
Both sides announce 115% reduction in tariffs for 90-days
Global equities, USDInd, Bitcoin and Oil rally
Gold tumbles almost 3%, JPY & CHF weaken
US500: US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.9% & ↓ 2.0% over past year

Investors sprinted toward riskier assets on Monday after China and the United States agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.

After positive talks over the weekends, both sides announced a massive 115% reduction in tariffs, representing a major step toward de-escalating a trade war.

China will lower tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%.
The United States will cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%.

In response to the risk-on mood, Asian equities surged, European markets opened higher, while US futures flashed green.

FXTM’s USDInd jumped over 1%.
Bitcoin pushed beyond $105,000.
Crude oil rallied more than 2%.

Safe-haven assets took a beating as

Gold shed almost 3%.
The Yen and Swiss franc fell against all G10 currencies.

This breakthrough in the China and US talks has uplifted market sentiment and eased fears around a global recession.

Further signs of progress within this 90-day window could spell more gains for stock markets. However, if talks stall down the road or tensions return – risk assets will be in the firing line.

Beyond US-China trade developments, it’s a week packed with more key data and earnings from the largest Chinese companies.

The likes of JD.com, Tencent and Alibaba will publish their latest quarterly results which may influence FXTM’s CHINAH index.

On the data front, the CPI report is likely to impact Fed expectations, resulting in more volatility for US equities, USDInd and gold prices.

Speaking of equities, FXTM’s US500 has punched above key resistance at 5800.

The incoming CPI report and speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell could determine whether this resistance is conquered.

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 2.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A solid breakout and daily close above 5800 may encourage an incline toward 5880.
Should prices remain below 5800, this may trigger a sell-off toward 5715.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

12 May

Gold Drops to 3,273 USD as Markets Await Trade Deal Developments

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of a troy ounce of gold fell to 3,273 USD on Monday, losing about 1% compared to the previous session’s level.

Key factors driving gold’s movement

The primary reason for the decline is positive signals regarding trade talks between the US and China, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets.

Negotiations between representatives of the two countries concluded over the weekend, and the results offer some grounds for optimism. Beijing announced plans to initiate formal talks, while Washington reported progress towards an agreement.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he could provide further details at a full briefing on Monday. Today’s developments are expected to generate significant market reactions.

Geopolitically, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan remained in place until Sunday, despite mutual accusations of violations shortly after its conclusion.

Earlier, additional pressure on gold came from statements made by the Federal Reserve. The regulator warned of rising inflation and risks within the labour market. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of a pre-emptive rate cut in response to tariff threats.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the 3,322 level. Today, we expect a possible decline to 3,195. After reaching this target, a correction to the 3,255 level is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the local target of 3,070 may follow. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below the zero level and is pointed decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has broken below the 3,290 level and continues to move towards 3,235. This target level will likely be reached today. A corrective move towards the 3,322 level cannot be ruled out. Subsequently, a decline to at least 3,200 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator; its signal line is below the 80 level and is directed steadily downwards towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid improving trade sentiment and hawkish commentary from the Fed, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Traders will be closely watching today’s briefing for any new market-moving details.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

11 May

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,043 contracts) with the British Pound (5,276 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,571 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (740 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-43,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,440 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,353 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,612 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-659 contracts), Bitcoin (-550 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

Highlighting the data in the currency speculator positions is a weakening US Dollar trend while the other major currencies are seeing stronger weekly speculator positions and trends.

The US Dollar index has been in an overall bearish position for three consecutive weeks as the USD Index positions have fallen in 8 out of the last 11 weeks for a total decline of over -17,000 contracts in that time period. This has dropped the speculator positioning to the most bearish level since December 2024. The USD Index speculator strength score, a measure of the current spec level compared to its past 3-year range, is currently at just a 4.4% score and underscores how weak the currency has become in speculator sentiment.

Weak Start to 2025 for the U.S. Dollar

The USD Index exchange rate has had a very weak start to 2025 as it has fallen approximately 9% since the beginning of the year. The American currency Index currently sits at the important psychological level of 100.00 and how the currency navigates this level can determine where things go as the 100 level has acted as strong support or resistance many times in the past, including in 2023 and 2024. The USD Index has recently fallen below its 200-week moving average and has now been under this level for multiple weeks for the first time since 2021.

Euro, GBP, Yen and Peso bullish bets

The Euro, the British Pound Sterling, the Mexican Peso and the Japanese Yen currently all have bullish speculator contract standings against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen bets have been on a tear in the past few months with speculator bets rising in 13 out of the past 16 weeks for a total gain of +206,270 contracts in that period. The Yen speculator positions, however, did dip a little bit this week and came down from the all-time record high of last week at just under +180,000 bullish contracts.

The Euro and the British pound sterling contracts have also been steadily building higher bullish positions over the past few months with current levels at +75,719 contracts and +29,235 contracts, respectively. The Mexican Peso positions have been trending up as well as it has risen for three consecutive weeks and now the Mexican Peso speculator position is at its highest level since July of 2024 at +68,555 contracts.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar contracts have all been in bearish positions but have been improving week to week from their lowest bearish levels in the first quarter of 2025.

Biggest Change of the Week: BRL

The outlier change this week was the Brazilian Real which saw speculator bets fall by over -43,000 contracts this week. This sharp decline was following four straight weeks of gains that had boosted the overall bullish position to the highest level on record last week. This week’s reduction basically cut the Brazilian real speculator position in third and it now sits currently around +25,000 net contracts. The Brazilian Real’s exchange rate against the Dollar this week rose slightly and gained for a fourth consecutive week. Overall, the Real is about ten percent higher vs the USD since the start of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (64 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.8 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (99.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (100.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (59.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (100.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (24.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-12 percent) and the British Pound (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-17.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-67.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	27.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.1	20.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-1,108	2,486	-1,378
– Gross Longs:	21,251	9,682	2,559
– Gross Shorts:	22,359	7,196	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	99.0	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	20.6	-25.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	55.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.8	5.6
– Net Position:	75,719	-131,339	55,620
– Gross Longs:	194,192	405,535	97,040
– Gross Shorts:	118,473	536,874	41,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-10.6	46.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	28.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.2	13.1
– Net Position:	29,235	-34,736	5,501
– Gross Longs:	94,384	57,797	31,693
– Gross Shorts:	65,149	92,533	26,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	47.6	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.3	-1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 176,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	28.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	81.6	5.5
– Net Position:	176,859	-200,612	23,753
– Gross Longs:	204,008	105,878	44,435
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	306,490	20,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-16.4	30.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	74.1	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	39.4	19.1
– Net Position:	-23,574	24,432	-858
– Gross Longs:	5,558	52,272	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	29,132	27,840	13,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	39.3	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-35.3	32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	52.2	11.7
– Net Position:	-70,645	76,469	-5,824
– Gross Longs:	16,677	209,571	24,048
– Gross Shorts:	87,322	133,102	29,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	46.0	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-27.0	13.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	66.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	39.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-48,372	49,713	-1,341
– Gross Longs:	26,243	121,539	22,896
– Gross Shorts:	74,615	71,826	24,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	59.6	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-19.4	9.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-23,135	22,830	305
– Gross Longs:	10,188	45,115	4,533
– Gross Shorts:	33,323	22,285	4,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.5	20.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.9	27.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	81.8	2.9
– Net Position:	68,555	-69,687	1,132
– Gross Longs:	86,615	34,566	4,872
– Gross Shorts:	18,060	104,253	3,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.5	26.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	58.1	1.1
– Net Position:	24,961	-27,927	2,966
– Gross Longs:	61,099	23,965	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	36,138	51,892	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	34.2	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.0	7.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.4	1.6	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,781	1,541	240
– Gross Longs:	22,936	1,982	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	24,717	441	1,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	100.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.6	65.9	16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 May

Metals Charts: COT Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,334 contracts) with Palladium (927 contracts) and Steel (148 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-821 contracts), Silver (-691 contracts) and Platinum (-452 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (29 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.2 percent)
Silver (78.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (53.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.3 percent)
Platinum (38.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (29.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (80.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.5 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have negative trends currently.

Platinum (-10 percent) and Copper (-12 percent) have the least negative trends this week while Gold (-33.2 percent) has the most negative trend at the moment.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-33.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-35.9 percent)
Silver (-14.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.6 percent)
Copper (-11.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.4 percent)
Platinum (-9.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-24.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.2 percent)
Steel (-13.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-17.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 162,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of -821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	19.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.7	5.1
– Net Position:	162,497	-192,103	29,606
– Gross Longs:	237,445	87,244	52,632
– Gross Shorts:	74,948	279,347	23,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	53.2	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	31.2	3.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	22.9	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	71.3	6.5
– Net Position:	49,252	-67,803	18,551
– Gross Longs:	70,335	32,146	27,737
– Gross Shorts:	21,083	99,949	9,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.4	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.3	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	43.5	6.6
– Net Position:	21,703	-22,355	652
– Gross Longs:	71,777	61,510	13,342
– Gross Shorts:	50,074	83,865	12,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	51.2	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.5	1.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	24.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	42.0	5.3
– Net Position:	9,510	-14,040	4,530
– Gross Longs:	44,605	18,742	8,637
– Gross Shorts:	35,095	32,782	4,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	13.5	-30.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	51.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.1	7.6	7.2
– Net Position:	-9,991	9,512	479
– Gross Longs:	6,396	11,158	2,026
– Gross Shorts:	16,387	1,646	1,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	69.8	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	16.0	-18.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	62.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	64.4	0.8
– Net Position:	806	-744	-62
– Gross Longs:	10,534	21,095	218
– Gross Shorts:	9,728	21,839	280
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	21.4	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

11 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by SOFR 3-Month & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 11,313 contracts for the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-172,797 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-81,631 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-14,416 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13,381 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-10,233 contracts), the Fed Funds (-8,245 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3,952 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (73 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (34.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (78.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (63.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (0 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-72 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-18 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (10.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-71.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-48.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-20.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (11.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (2.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -115,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	67.5	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	62.0	1.7
– Net Position:	-115,965	103,159	12,806
– Gross Longs:	313,631	1,265,461	45,399
– Gross Shorts:	429,596	1,162,302	32,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	60.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	2.1	-12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -738,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -565,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	61.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	54.1	0.3
– Net Position:	-738,403	735,570	2,833
– Gross Longs:	1,195,710	6,541,847	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	1,934,113	5,806,277	32,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	77.6	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.2	1.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	63.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	62.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-8,091	10,503	-2,412
– Gross Longs:	198,034	721,268	283
– Gross Shorts:	206,125	710,765	2,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	34.1	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-14.2	35.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,220,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,206,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	52.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,220,793	1,073,415	147,378
– Gross Longs:	549,885	3,219,754	256,003
– Gross Shorts:	1,770,678	2,146,339	108,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.7	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	1.1	8.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,296,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,292,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	82.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	53.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,296,496	2,066,750	229,746
– Gross Longs:	603,900	5,833,463	461,099
– Gross Shorts:	2,900,396	3,766,713	231,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	19.5	10.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -953,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -81,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -871,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	78.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	62.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-953,168	812,188	140,980
– Gross Longs:	468,266	3,936,983	458,736
– Gross Shorts:	1,421,434	3,124,795	317,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.2	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	12.8	11.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -283,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -221,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	63.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-283,697	323,389	-39,692
– Gross Longs:	286,185	1,769,437	216,393
– Gross Shorts:	569,882	1,446,048	256,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	89.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.9	79.3	-1.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	75.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-95,789	-2,704	98,493
– Gross Longs:	187,829	1,361,393	230,957
– Gross Shorts:	283,618	1,364,097	132,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	38.2	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	16.9	-0.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -264,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -251,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	70.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-264,775	239,311	25,464
– Gross Longs:	123,949	1,565,107	177,814
– Gross Shorts:	388,724	1,325,796	152,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	31.5	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	18.1	-17.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat & Live Cattle this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (9,271 contracts) with Live Cattle (5,601 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,644 contracts), Cotton (1,662 contracts) and Coffee (52 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-59,530 contracts), Soybeans (-10,088 contracts), Sugar (-16,325 contracts), Soybean Meal (-221 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,260 contracts) and with Cocoa (-441 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (86 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (74 percent), Soybeans (63 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Wheat (6 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.7 percent)
Sugar (17.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.0 percent)
Coffee (73.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.6 percent)
Soybeans (63.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (80.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.4 percent)
Live Cattle (85.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.8 percent)
Cotton (31.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.6 percent)
Cocoa (27.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.7 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (50 percent) and Cotton (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (16 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-11 percent), Live Cattle (-9 percent) and Sugar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.6 percent)
Sugar (-9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.2 percent)
Coffee (-8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.6 percent)
Soybeans (16.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-1.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.2 percent)
Cotton (26.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-17.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-27.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -59,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	45.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	50.1	11.0
– Net Position:	115,899	-75,297	-40,602
– Gross Longs:	376,617	701,110	129,869
– Gross Shorts:	260,718	776,407	170,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	49.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	9.2	22.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	55.5	8.2
– Net Position:	22,440	-18,002	-4,438
– Gross Longs:	196,150	424,216	61,109
– Gross Shorts:	173,710	442,218	65,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	85.7	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.8	-34.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	36.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	70.4	4.0
– Net Position:	49,341	-51,788	2,447
– Gross Longs:	59,594	56,913	8,598
– Gross Shorts:	10,253	108,701	6,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	27.6	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.0	-5.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	50.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	54.4	8.0
– Net Position:	49,385	-30,958	-18,427
– Gross Longs:	177,646	392,063	43,458
– Gross Shorts:	128,261	423,021	61,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	35.7	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-19.7	24.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	45.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.7	4.4
– Net Position:	66,905	-75,639	8,734
– Gross Longs:	155,811	262,712	33,834
– Gross Shorts:	88,906	338,351	25,100
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	23.0	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.9	-51.3	41.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	50.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	44.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-53,955	33,912	20,043
– Gross Longs:	119,134	285,863	49,215
– Gross Shorts:	173,089	251,951	29,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	91.2	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.0	11.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 108,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	27.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.7	13.5
– Net Position:	108,631	-84,943	-23,688
– Gross Longs:	185,603	105,351	27,847
– Gross Shorts:	76,972	190,294	51,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	18.8	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	11.7	-0.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	48.5	8.2
– Net Position:	37,501	-34,963	-2,538
– Gross Longs:	100,650	95,588	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	63,149	130,551	22,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	40.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.8	-0.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	47.1	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-10,076	13,137	-3,061
– Gross Longs:	64,851	103,419	10,468
– Gross Shorts:	74,927	90,282	13,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	72.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-23.3	-22.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	40.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.5	5.7
– Net Position:	16,911	-21,174	4,263
– Gross Longs:	27,028	36,520	9,402
– Gross Shorts:	10,117	57,694	5,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	72.3	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	8.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	38.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.9	16.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-107,537	101,506	6,031
– Gross Longs:	119,875	176,106	36,682
– Gross Shorts:	227,412	74,600	30,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	94.0	90.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	16.3	15.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (6,703 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,840 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,261 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,984 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (246 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the Russell-Mini with a drop of -14,422 contracts on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (90 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (83.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent), the VIX (17 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (17.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-26.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (37.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	43.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.4	8.4
– Net Position:	10,943	-13,545	2,602
– Gross Longs:	71,127	121,604	25,910
– Gross Shorts:	60,184	135,149	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.5	-19.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	72.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-76,405	40,182	36,223
– Gross Longs:	251,351	1,579,940	237,311
– Gross Shorts:	327,756	1,539,758	201,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	40.9	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	11.1	-20.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	63.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.7	14.8
– Net Position:	5,795	-3,505	-2,290
– Gross Longs:	12,694	48,033	8,949
– Gross Shorts:	6,899	51,538	11,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	33.2	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-8.9	-23.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.4	15.9
– Net Position:	32,847	-22,754	-10,093
– Gross Longs:	85,091	135,792	31,046
– Gross Shorts:	52,244	158,546	41,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	29.1	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	1.2	-48.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	73.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.6	6.1
– Net Position:	-14,828	18,843	-4,015
– Gross Longs:	75,021	331,976	23,509
– Gross Shorts:	89,849	313,133	27,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	35.5	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	5.8	-28.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.3	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	88.8	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,592	-2,617	7,209
– Gross Longs:	42,076	411,014	11,942
– Gross Shorts:	46,668	413,631	4,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	23.1	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-7.4	-6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 May

Speculator Extremes: Brent, VIX, 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 15.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,495 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 17.0 this week. The speculator position registered 10,943 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 6,703 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The JPY speculator level resides at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase of 14.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 176,859 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,353 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an advance by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 37.0 this week.

The speculator position was 32,847 net contracts this week with a change of 1,984 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,296,496 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,952 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -30.0 this week. The speculator position was -31,610 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,576 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,108 net contracts this week with a decrease of -659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -107,537 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -65.0 this week. The speculator position was -1,781 net contracts this week with a dip lower by -550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

09 May

Week Ahead: Dollar ready to flex its muscles?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2.5% from 2025 low
US-China trade talks over weekend could rock USD
US CPI + data dump + Powell Speech = more USD volatility?
US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 1.0% over past year
Technical levels: 102.20, 100.00 & 99.20

The United States has struck a “breakthrough” deal with the United Kingdom, marking the first trade agreement since Trump announced sweeping tariffs last month.

And this has left markets buzzing with anticipation ahead of US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend.

Beyond global trade developments, high-impact data, including the latest US CPI, corporate earnings and speeches by policymakers will be in focus:

Saturday, 10th May

CN50: China PPI, CPI
USDInd: US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Monday, 12th May

JP225: Japan current account
MXN: Mexico industrial production
EUR: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

Tuesday, 13th May

CHINAH: JD.com earnings
AUD: Australia consumer, business confidence
GER40: Germany ZEW survey
ZAR: South Africa unemployment
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: US April CPI, Trump visits Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates

Wednesday, 14th May

CHINAH: Tencent earnings
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan PPI
US500: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

Thursday, 15th May

CHINAH: Alibaba earnings
AUD: Australia unemployment
CAD: Canada existing home sales, housing starts
EU50: Eurozone GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand food prices
UK100: UK GDP, industrial production
US30: Walmart earnings.
USDInd: US retail sales, PPI, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, jobless claims, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 16th May

JP225: Japan GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand Business, NZ manufacturing PMI
US500: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, import prices

FXTM’s USDInd is under the spotlight after securing a solid daily close above the psychological 100.00 level.

The USDInd tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The dollar has appreciated against most currencies this week thanks to Powell’s hawkish tone and easing trade tensions.

Another major move could be brewing for the USDInd and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Over the weekend, US and Chinese officials will engage in talks to de-escalate trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

According to reports, the Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction to temper economic pain and soothe tensions. However, China has adopted a more defensive approach toward trade talks, reiterating its call for the US to cancel unilateral tariffs.

Should the talks end on a positive note and open doors to further negotiations, the dollar could rally as US recession fears cool.
If the talks end on a sour note and result in fresh trade uncertainty, the dollar may weaken as US recession fears mount.

2) US April CPI report

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Tuesday 13th May could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2024 vs. April 2025) to remain unchanged at 2.4%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.8%
CPI month-on-month (April 2025 vs March 2025) to rise 0.3% from -0.1% in the prior month
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDInd higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecast, this may drag the USDInd lower.

3) US data dump + Powell speech

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and industrial production among other data releases, to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches by various Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide fresh clues on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data print above forecasts and Fed speakers strike a hawkish note, this could boost the USDInd.
Soft US economic data and dovish-sounding Fed officials may weigh on the USDInd.

4) Technical forces

The USDInd could be gearing up for further upside but this will depend on whether the 100.00 level proves to be reliable support. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA and respecting a bullish channel.

Should 100.00 prove reliable support, prices may venture toward the 50-day SMA at 102.20 and 103.60.
Weakness below 100.00 may encourage a decline back towards 99.20 and 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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