InvestMacro

Japanese Yen Strengthens as US Dollar Weakens Following Credit Downgrade

The USD/JPY pair declined for a fifth consecutive day, touching 145.25, as the US dollar faced sustained pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating.

Key drivers affecting USD/JPY

On Friday, Moody’s cut the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a lack of “effective measures” to curb the widening budget deficit.

Meanwhile, domestic data revealed that Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 2025, shrinking by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, falling short of expectations in both cases. This marks the first economic contraction of the year, driven primarily by a decline in exports.

Investors are now closely monitoring Japan’s trade figures, particularly as the potential impact of new US tariffs looms.

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stressed that Japan would not accept an unconditional preliminary trade deal, especially concerning automobiles. The country remains wary of a potential 25% US tariff on Japanese car imports. While Japanese diplomats are keen to finalise a trade agreement with the US swiftly, they acknowledge that the outcome is not entirely within their control.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to 146.04, with the fifth wave of decline now in motion. The immediate downside target is 143.50, with further downward momentum expected today. Once this target is achieved, a potential rebound towards 146.04 may follow. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 146.04 before breaking downward. The current focus is on completing the fifth decline wave towards 143.50. So far, the pair has reached 144.80, followed by a minor correction to 145.30. The next expected move is a further drop to 144.15, with an eventual extension towards 143.50. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has dipped below 80 and is trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s weakness, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade, continues to drive USD/JPY lower, while Japan’s economic contraction adds further complexity. Traders should monitor trade developments and technical levels for near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 May

Euro Speculator Bets hit 2024 High as Brazilian Real Bets Rebound, CAD Bets Decline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,554 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,055 contracts), Bitcoin (954 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (523 contracts), the Swiss Franc (505 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (493 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,511 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,591 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,849 contracts), the British Pound (-2,019 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Futures Data Highlights: Euro hits 2024 high

This week’s notable changes in the Currency Speculator positions included the Euro rising to a new yearly high, the Brazilian Real rebounding from last week’s sharp decline, and the Canadian Dollar posting the largest decrease this week in the speculator bets.

Euro Speculator Position:
– The Euro speculator bet rose by over +9,000 contracts this week.
– The Euro speculator position has risen in 4 out of the past 6 weeks and in 10 out of the last 13 weeks.
– Over the last 13 weeks, approximately +150,000 contracts have been added to the Euro speculator position.
– The overall standing has increased from approximately -64,000 contracts in February to a +84,774 contracts this week.
– This brings the Euro contract position to its highest level since September 2024, a span of 36 weeks.

Brazilian Real Speculator Position:
– The Brazilian Real jumped this week with a gain of over +18,000 speculator positions, rebounding from last week’s -43,377 contract decline.
– The Brazilian Real contract positions have risen in 5 out of the past 6 weeks and maintains a bullish net position of over +43,000 contracts this week.

Other Major Currencies:
– Speculator positions for the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, the U.S. Dollar Index, the New Zealand Dollar, and Bitcoin all saw changes of less than 1,000 contracts on the week.
– The Japanese Yen saw an approximate -4,500 contract fall from its overall net position but maintains a highly bullish position slightly off the all-time highs of 2 weeks ago.
– The Canadian Dollar saw the most bearish change of the week with a decline of over 11,000 contracts, likely weighed down by falling oil prices and speculation that the Canadian government could reduce interest rates.

U.S. Dollar Index:
– The U.S. Dollar Index currently has a speculator’s net standing of -615 contracts, which amounts to an overall neutral position after a small gain this week.
– The U.S. Dollar Index price has risen slightly for the past 4 weeks in a row and ended the week just below the 101.00 exchange level.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent), the EuroFX (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Bitcoin (33 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (41 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (61.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (98.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (54.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (41.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (42.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (40 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (21 percent), the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-15.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.8 percent)
EuroFX (12.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (13.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-28.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-64.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	27.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	23.6	11.8
– Net Position:	-615	1,067	-452
– Gross Longs:	15,539	7,680	2,849
– Gross Shorts:	16,154	6,613	3,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	96.2	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	14.7	2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	54.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	72.0	6.0
– Net Position:	84,774	-134,282	49,508
– Gross Longs:	209,549	406,660	94,529
– Gross Shorts:	124,775	540,942	45,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	35.5	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-17.5	41.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	28.7	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	45.1	14.3
– Net Position:	27,216	-32,059	4,843
– Gross Longs:	89,540	55,836	32,765
– Gross Shorts:	62,324	87,895	27,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	48.6	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.7	1.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 172,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	28.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	79.6	7.6
– Net Position:	172,268	-184,891	12,623
– Gross Longs:	194,226	101,140	40,015
– Gross Shorts:	21,958	286,031	27,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.1	4.3	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-11.7	-9.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.8	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	38.3	19.8
– Net Position:	-23,069	22,999	70
– Gross Longs:	7,443	51,006	14,560
– Gross Shorts:	30,512	28,007	14,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	37.0	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.9	-43.6	30.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -82,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	46.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-82,156	91,895	-9,739
– Gross Longs:	23,250	212,802	21,276
– Gross Shorts:	105,406	120,907	31,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	52.6	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.8	10.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	66.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	38.3	12.6
– Net Position:	-49,346	50,883	-1,537
– Gross Longs:	25,507	119,964	21,268
– Gross Shorts:	74,853	69,081	22,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	60.3	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.8	4.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	38.2	6.3
– Net Position:	-22,612	22,116	496
– Gross Longs:	10,207	45,320	4,303
– Gross Shorts:	32,819	23,204	3,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.0	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-27.8	29.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 65,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	26.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	78.2	2.4
– Net Position:	65,706	-69,541	3,835
– Gross Longs:	90,191	35,941	7,084
– Gross Shorts:	24,485	105,482	3,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	38.5	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-10.0	26.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	43,515	-47,068	3,553
– Gross Longs:	62,123	29,847	4,729
– Gross Shorts:	18,608	76,915	1,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	18.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.8	-2.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	6.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	1.5	6.9
– Net Position:	-827	1,548	-721
– Gross Longs:	23,453	1,986	1,276
– Gross Shorts:	24,280	438	1,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	45.3	-27.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 May

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score (or maximum) of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 14 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 5,637 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,142 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain by 14 points this week. The speculator position registered 172,268 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,591 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14 this week. The overall speculator position was 6,099 net contracts this week with a drop of -4,844 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a boost by 35 points this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a rise by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The BRL speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5 this week.

The speculator position was 43,515 net contracts this week with a jump by 18,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was -118,100 net contracts this week with a decrease by -10,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -2,180,043 net contracts this week with a rise of 116,453 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25 points this week. The overall speculator position was -29,396 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,214 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16 points this week. The speculator position was -615 net contracts this week with an advance by 493 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 this week. The speculator position was -1,222,232 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,439 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Opinions

18 May

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-1,288 contracts), Silver (-1,498 contracts), Steel (-635 contracts), Palladium (-470 contracts), Platinum (-194 contracts) and with Copper (-181 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (26 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.9 percent)
Silver (76.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.4 percent)
Copper (53.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.5 percent)
Platinum (38.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.4 percent)
Palladium (25.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.5 percent)
Steel (77.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (80.2 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets currently have negative trend scores. Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-9 percent) have the least negative scores while Gold (-29 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) have the most negative scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-33.2 percent)
Silver (-12.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.8 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.5 percent)
Platinum (-13.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.6 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.6 percent)
Steel (-8.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 161,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,497 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	20.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.4	4.9
– Net Position:	161,209	-191,207	29,998
– Gross Longs:	238,191	88,412	51,570
– Gross Shorts:	76,982	279,619	21,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	53.5	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	26.6	14.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	24.0	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	6.6
– Net Position:	47,754	-66,180	18,426
– Gross Longs:	67,944	33,164	27,520
– Gross Shorts:	20,190	99,344	9,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	21.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.3	-3.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	31.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	43.5	5.9
– Net Position:	21,522	-24,343	2,821
– Gross Longs:	71,926	60,805	14,368
– Gross Shorts:	50,404	85,148	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	49.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	5.8	10.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	24.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	42.2	5.8
– Net Position:	9,316	-13,469	4,153
– Gross Longs:	42,968	18,603	8,566
– Gross Shorts:	33,652	32,072	4,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	62.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.4	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	5.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-10,461	9,659	802
– Gross Longs:	5,661	10,715	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	16,122	1,056	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	71.0	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	20.0	-1.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.4	0.7
– Net Position:	171	-157	-14
– Gross Longs:	10,440	22,868	218
– Gross Shorts:	10,269	23,025	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	24.2	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.0	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 May

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (116,453 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (62,817 contracts), the Fed Funds (36,496 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (18,160 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,553 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (3,019 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-35,910 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-6,465 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-1,439 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (56 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (24.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.1 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (13 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-63.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (8.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (11.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (5.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (1.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	66.8	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	63.1	2.8
– Net Position:	-79,469	74,867	4,602
– Gross Longs:	365,290	1,354,085	60,600
– Gross Shorts:	444,759	1,279,218	55,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	55.7	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-10.4	-17.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -744,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -738,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	60.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	53.7	0.9
– Net Position:	-744,868	749,170	-4,302
– Gross Longs:	1,274,538	6,601,971	95,390
– Gross Shorts:	2,019,406	5,852,801	99,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	78.3	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.1	-3.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	63.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	64.6	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,072	-10,929	16,001
– Gross Longs:	199,970	774,062	23,195
– Gross Shorts:	205,042	784,991	7,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	28.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-14.8	51.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,222,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	77.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	50.9	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,222,232	1,113,426	108,806
– Gross Longs:	562,762	3,224,121	247,644
– Gross Shorts:	1,784,994	2,110,695	138,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	82.0	69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.1	-0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,180,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,296,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	81.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	52.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,180,043	2,041,577	138,466
– Gross Longs:	587,192	5,807,519	460,064
– Gross Shorts:	2,767,235	3,765,942	321,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	97.9	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	12.0	-13.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -890,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 62,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -953,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	77.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	61.8	7.2
– Net Position:	-890,351	805,053	85,298
– Gross Longs:	480,171	3,993,517	454,804
– Gross Shorts:	1,370,522	3,188,464	369,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.3	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	7.5	-10.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -319,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	61.9	10.8
– Net Position:	-319,607	337,514	-17,907
– Gross Longs:	287,304	1,776,279	232,514
– Gross Shorts:	606,911	1,438,765	250,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.3	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-68.3	81.0	5.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -77,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	74.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	76.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-77,629	-20,577	98,206
– Gross Longs:	184,789	1,369,783	230,861
– Gross Shorts:	262,418	1,390,360	132,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	33.0	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	14.6	-3.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -261,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	82.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	70.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-261,222	234,240	26,982
– Gross Longs:	120,605	1,568,207	180,961
– Gross Shorts:	381,827	1,333,967	153,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	29.5	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	4.6	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Soybeans & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (15,793 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,256 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,294 contracts), Sugar (6,490 contracts), Cocoa (3,957 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,027 contracts) and Live Cattle (2,016 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-97,793 contracts), Wheat (-10,563 contracts), Coffee (-3,271 contracts) and with Cotton (-7,467 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (88 percent) and Soybean Oil (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (71 percent), Soybeans (67 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Soybean Meal (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (20 percent) and the Cotton (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (38.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (52.0 percent)
Sugar (19.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.8 percent)
Coffee (70.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.7 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (82.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (78.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (6.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.3 percent)
Live Cattle (87.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (64.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.8 percent)
Cotton (27.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (31.7 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (34 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (15 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-12 percent) and Wheat (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.5 percent)
Coffee (-7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybeans (17.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (49.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-1.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (26.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.4 percent)
Wheat (-10.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-17.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -97,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	46.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	45.4	10.6
– Net Position:	18,106	13,151	-31,257
– Gross Longs:	341,178	735,478	137,591
– Gross Shorts:	323,072	722,327	168,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	59.2	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	18.9	28.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	51.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	55.6	8.0
– Net Position:	28,930	-31,282	2,352
– Gross Longs:	200,858	406,500	65,256
– Gross Shorts:	171,928	437,782	62,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	82.1	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	10.9	-22.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	69.4	4.0
– Net Position:	46,070	-48,390	2,320
– Gross Longs:	56,603	58,862	8,530
– Gross Shorts:	10,533	107,252	6,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	30.8	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.9	-4.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 65,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	48.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.3	7.4
– Net Position:	65,178	-51,976	-13,202
– Gross Longs:	188,820	394,900	47,999
– Gross Shorts:	123,642	446,876	61,201
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	30.0	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-20.9	23.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 74,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	44.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.0	4.5
– Net Position:	74,199	-83,812	9,613
– Gross Longs:	156,359	261,556	35,793
– Gross Shorts:	82,160	345,368	26,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-34.5	23.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	48.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	43.3	5.6
– Net Position:	-50,928	32,707	18,221
– Gross Longs:	124,466	285,129	51,140
– Gross Shorts:	175,394	252,422	32,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	90.7	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-0.7	-9.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.1	25.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	48.9	14.1
– Net Position:	110,647	-87,816	-22,831
– Gross Longs:	194,275	97,817	30,544
– Gross Shorts:	83,628	185,633	53,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	15.3	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	12.3	9.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	33.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.5	8.3
– Net Position:	46,757	-44,113	-2,644
– Gross Longs:	111,314	96,248	21,292
– Gross Shorts:	64,557	140,361	23,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	33.1	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	2.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	47.7	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	38.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-17,543	19,738	-2,195
– Gross Longs:	64,575	107,157	11,294
– Gross Shorts:	82,118	87,419	13,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	76.0	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-11.2	-34.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	37.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	64.9	5.9
– Net Position:	20,868	-27,022	6,154
– Gross Longs:	30,518	35,859	11,897
– Gross Shorts:	9,650	62,881	5,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	66.3	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.2	30.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	38.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	15.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-118,100	112,476	5,624
– Gross Longs:	126,006	186,211	39,311
– Gross Shorts:	244,106	73,735	33,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.3	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

18 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,301 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,789 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-13,300 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-13,528 contracts) and with the VIX (-4,844 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (93 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is still above the 50 percent midpoint for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (62.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (93.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (83.0 percent)

Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (17 percent), the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the VIX (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-18.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (15.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	41.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	44.9	12.4
– Net Position:	6,099	-10,164	4,065
– Gross Longs:	65,347	114,114	38,350
– Gross Shorts:	59,248	124,278	34,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	2.8	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.0	9.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	74.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-122,194	61,669	60,525
– Gross Longs:	243,291	1,572,344	250,278
– Gross Shorts:	365,485	1,510,675	189,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	44.1	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	17.6	-5.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	61.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	67.5	16.0
– Net Position:	7,114	-4,300	-2,814
– Gross Longs:	13,259	47,987	9,602
– Gross Shorts:	6,145	52,287	12,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	32.0	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-11.5	-10.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	59.0	15.4
– Net Position:	19,547	-10,153	-9,394
– Gross Longs:	85,720	157,125	34,258
– Gross Shorts:	66,173	167,278	43,652
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	42.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	19.7	-43.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	68.6	5.8
– Net Position:	-28,356	30,861	-2,505
– Gross Longs:	62,021	335,022	23,084
– Gross Shorts:	90,377	304,161	25,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	42.9	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	13.5	-30.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	90.3	1.1
– Net Position:	2,709	-8,568	5,859
– Gross Longs:	41,277	406,707	10,913
– Gross Shorts:	38,568	415,275	5,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	15.9	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-11.2	-15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

16 May

Banxico cut the rate by 0.50%. Natural gas prices fell to a 2-week low

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.21% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.41%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.18%. The GE stocks rose by 2.8% as Qatar placed Boeing’s most significant order for wide-body airplanes powered only by GE engines. Economic data showed retail sales slowed in April, and wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell, easing price concerns and lowering Treasury yields. Fed Chairman Powell warned of lingering economic uncertainty and potential supply-side shocks, keeping markets cautious despite recent optimism on US-China trade.

The Mexican peso slipped to 19.50 per US dollar from a seven-month peak of 19.38 as markets perceived a 50 bps cut in Banxico’s interest rate to 8.50% on May 15. With core and core inflation still at 3.9% and first-quarter GDP growth at just 0.2% after contraction, the Board decided that a modest rate cut would support the fragile economic recovery, keeping disinflation on track to meet the 3% target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.72%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.57%. Defense stocks rose amid fading prospects for peace talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Shares of Hensoldt, Rheinmetall and Renk rose by 4-8%. Merck shares fell nearly 6% after the company cut its full-year forecast. Meanwhile, Siemens fell by 1.3% after disappointing second-quarter profit despite reiterating a positive outlook for fiscal 2025.

European Union officials said the bloc is pushing for a more comprehensive deal on tariff cuts with the US than those currently being negotiated with Britain and China. EU negotiators expressed confidence in the bloc’s economic clout and said they would not be pressured to reach unfavorable terms.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell below $3.5/MMBtu, their lowest in two weeks, mainly due to weaker near-term demand expectations and lower LNG exports. Forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather through the end of May are expected to limit heating demand, while moderate temperatures are also expected to reduce cooling needs, reducing overall consumption.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.98%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.79% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.22% for yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly expectations survey showed that business executives now see inflation at 2.29% over the next two years as of Q2 2025, up from 2.06% in the previous quarter, the highest over a year. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.41% from 2.15%, the highest in the past four quarters.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,916.93 +24.35 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,322.75 +271.69 (+0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 23,695.59 +168.58 (+0.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,633.75 +48.74 (+0.57%)

USD index 100.81 -0.23 (-0.23%)

News feed for: 2025.05.16

Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Housing Starts (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 May

EUR/USD Unchanged Amid Mixed News and Lingering Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair remained steady near 1.1196 on Friday, closing the week with little movement.

Key drivers influencing EUR/USD

Earlier in the week, the US dollar strengthened as the US-China trade dispute showed signs of easing. However, this optimism was short-lived due to disappointing economic data.

The greenback initially rose by around 1% after Washington and Beijing agreed to reduce tariffs temporarily for 90 days, fuelling hopes of progress toward a broader trade deal. Yet, weak US economic indicators soon dampened sentiment:

The April producer price index (PPI) fell to 2.4% year-on-year, down from 3.4% and below the forecast of 2.5%
Month-on-month PPI dropped 0.5%, against expectations of no change
US retail sales growth slowed sharply to 0.1% in March, following February’s 1.7% surge
Industrial production stagnated in March after a 0.3% decline in February

These concerning figures have led traders to price in additional Fed rate cuts for 2025.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

Media

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD continues to consolidate around 1.1173. A temporary rise to 1.1276 (testing resistance from below) remains possible, but this uptick is considered a corrective phase within the broader downtrend. Once complete, the pair may resume its decline toward 1.0950, this being the first key support level. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has already met a local bullish target at 1.12653, followed by a pullback to 1.1170. Today, another test of 1.1276 is plausible, but the broader expectation remains bearish, with a potential drop towards 1.1100. This scenario is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80, suggesting an imminent downward reversal towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains range-bound amid mixed fundamentals and technical signals. While a short-term rebound is possible, the dominant downtrend is expected to prevail, with key support levels at 1.0950 (H4) and 1.1100 (H1). Traders should monitor Fed policy expectations and upcoming economic data for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 May

Piper Sandler leads latest Small-Cap Stock System Scores

By InvestMacro Research | Stock Market Ideas

The second quarter of 2025 is underway and we wanted to highlight three of the top small-cap companies that have been just recently added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. Today’s group includes a financial services company, an industrial company and a communications provider.

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm. The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Currently, the total number of stocks in our model is 1,291. We have scored 12,949 quarterly earnings reports so far and overall, only 7.74% of company earnings reports have come in with a 50 or above score.

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 3 of our Top Small-Cap Stocks scored in Q1 2025:

Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR):

Piper Sandler Companies (Symbol: PIPR) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. PIPR scored a 81 in our fundamental rating system on May 5th, 2025.

At time of writing, only 0.66% of stocks have scored a 80 or better out of a total of 12,949 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times.

PIPR is a Small-Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for PIPR is the Capital Markets.

Piper Sandler

– P.E. ratio: 23.38
– Dividend: approximately 1.00%
– Dividend payout ratio: approximately 25%
– Earnings: Earnings PerShare (EPS) has risen 3 out of the last 4 quarters, beating analyst expectations for the last 2 quarters in a row

Piper Sandler Price Performance:
– Trades above 0.382 fibonacci retracement level (2022 to present)
– Down 11% year to date
– Up 20% in the last month

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Piper Sandler Companies operates as an investment bank and institutional securities firm that serves corporations, private equity groups, public entities, non-profit entities, and institutional investors in the United States and internationally. The company offers investment banking and institutional sales, trading, and research services for various equity and fixed income products. Company Website: https://www.pipersandler.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR) 23.38 25.84
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF 17.01 21.85

* Data through May 14, 2025

Griffon Corporation (GFF):

Griffon Corporation (Symbol: GFF) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. GFF scored a 56 in our fundamental rating system on May 9th, 2025.

At time of writing, only 7.74% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 12,949 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time after rising by 10 system points from our last update.

GFF is a Small-Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for GFF is Conglomerates.

Griffon Company:
– P.E. ratio: 15.45
– Dividend ratio: approximately 1%
– Payout ratio: approximately 15%
– Beaten analysts’ EPS expectations for three straight quarters
– EPS, P.E., and 5-year average P.E. below the industry average

Griffon Corporation Price Performance:
– Uptrend since 2022
– Trades above 0.236 fibonacci retracement level (2020 to present)
– Up 2.50% year to date
– Up 3.60% in the last month

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Griffon Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides consumer and professional, and home and building products in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally. Company Website: https://www.griffon.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Griffon Corporation (GFF) 15.45 3.26
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI 24.51 12.01

* Data through May 14, 2025

TEGNA Inc. (TGNA):

TEGNA Inc. (Symbol: TGNA) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. TGNA scored a 61 in our fundamental rating system on May 9th, 2025.

At time of writing, only 4.43% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 12,949 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 25 system points from our last update.

TGNA is a Small-Cap stock and part of the Communication Services sector. The industry focus for TGNA is Broadcasting.

Tenga:
– P.E. ratio: 6.26
– Dividend ratio: slightly under 3%
– Dividend payout ratio: around 18%
– Beaten analysts’ expectations for four quarters
– EPS, P.E., and 5-year P.E. average below the industry average

Price Performance:
– Down 4% year-to-date
– Trading off the April lows
– Up over 13% in the last month
– Trades above 0.50 fibonacci retracement level (2020 to present)

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

TEGNA Inc. operates as a media company in the United States. The company operates television stations that deliver television programming and digital content. It offers news content to consumers across various platforms, including online, mobile, and social platforms; owns and operates multicast networks under the names True Crime Network, Quest, and Twist that offer on-demand episodes of shows; and operates VAULT Studios, which provides True Crime Network and Quest. Company Website: https://www.tegna.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: TEGNA Inc. (TGNA) 6.26 16.93
– Benchmark Symbol: XLC 19.09 20.18

* Data through May 14, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Risk Disclosure: Stock Market trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Stock Market trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the stock market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with stock market trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

Opinions Stock Market Ideas Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:	*P/E Ratio (TTM)	*52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)	23.38	25.84
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF	17.01	21.85