By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (116,453 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (62,817 contracts), the Fed Funds (36,496 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (18,160 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,553 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (3,019 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-35,910 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-6,465 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-1,439 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
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Bonds Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (56 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (24.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.1 percent)
Fed Funds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (13 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.
The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-68.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-63.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (8.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (11.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (5.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (1.1 percent)
30-Day Federal Funds Futures:
The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,965 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.0 | 66.8 | 3.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 63.1 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | -79,469 | 74,867 | 4,602 |
| – Gross Longs: | 365,290 | 1,354,085 | 60,600 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 444,759 | 1,279,218 | 55,998 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.9 | 55.7 | 68.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.0 | -10.4 | -17.2 |
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -744,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -738,403 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.7 | 60.6 | 0.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.5 | 53.7 | 0.9 |
| – Net Position: | -744,868 | 749,170 | -4,302 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,274,538 | 6,601,971 | 95,390 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,019,406 | 5,852,801 | 99,692 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.8 | 78.3 | 81.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.5 | -5.1 | -3.9 |
Individual Bond Markets:
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,091 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.5 | 63.7 | 1.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.9 | 64.6 | 0.6 |
| – Net Position: | -5,072 | -10,929 | 16,001 |
| – Gross Longs: | 199,970 | 774,062 | 23,195 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 205,042 | 784,991 | 7,194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.2 | 28.9 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.7 | -14.8 | 51.4 |
2-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,222,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,793 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.6 | 77.7 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.0 | 50.9 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | -1,222,232 | 1,113,426 | 108,806 |
| – Gross Longs: | 562,762 | 3,224,121 | 247,644 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,784,994 | 2,110,695 | 138,838 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.2 | 82.0 | 69.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
5-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,180,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,296,496 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.2 | 81.2 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.7 | 52.7 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | -2,180,043 | 2,041,577 | 138,466 |
| – Gross Longs: | 587,192 | 5,807,519 | 460,064 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,767,235 | 3,765,942 | 321,598 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.3 | 97.9 | 74.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.2 | 12.0 | -13.0 |
10-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -890,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 62,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -953,168 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.3 | 77.4 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.6 | 61.8 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -890,351 | 805,053 | 85,298 |
| – Gross Longs: | 480,171 | 3,993,517 | 454,804 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,370,522 | 3,188,464 | 369,506 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.5 | 77.3 | 77.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.6 | 7.5 | -10.1 |
Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:
The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -319,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283,697 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.4 | 76.4 | 10.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.1 | 61.9 | 10.8 |
| – Net Position: | -319,607 | 337,514 | -17,907 |
| – Gross Longs: | 287,304 | 1,776,279 | 232,514 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 606,911 | 1,438,765 | 250,421 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 95.3 | 93.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -68.3 | 81.0 | 5.7 |
US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -77,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,789 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.1 | 74.9 | 12.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.3 | 76.0 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -77,629 | -20,577 | 98,206 |
| – Gross Longs: | 184,789 | 1,369,783 | 230,861 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 262,418 | 1,390,360 | 132,655 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.4 | 33.0 | 85.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.6 | 14.6 | -3.8 |
Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -261,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,775 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.3 | 82.5 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.1 | 70.1 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -261,222 | 234,240 | 26,982 |
| – Gross Longs: | 120,605 | 1,568,207 | 180,961 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 381,827 | 1,333,967 | 153,979 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.6 | 29.5 | 46.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.7 | 4.6 | -5.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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