InvestMacro

Speculator Extremes: JPY, Ultra 10-Year lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the JPY speculator level is currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise 6 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 167,330 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,938 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level leveled this week at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a boost 35 points this week. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the VIX speculator level resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost by 16 points this week. The overall speculator position was 4,424 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 13 points this week. The overall speculator position was 774 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,935 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Live Cattle speculator level at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was 103,416 net contracts this week with a dip by -7,231 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a zero percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -55 points this week. The overall speculator position was -328,444 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -8,837 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12 points this week. The speculator position was -2,275,941 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,898 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 points this week. The overall speculator position was -58,173 net contracts this week with a reduction by -7,245 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the USD Index speculator level now at 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -546 net contracts this week with a small advance of 69 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -72 points this week. The speculator position was -1,952 net contracts this week with a decrease by -1,125 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 May

Gold Halts Rally as US Signals Willingness to Discuss Trade Terms with EU

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold fell on Monday to $3,346 per troy ounce, pausing its recent upward trend as investors assessed the implications of a phone call between the US and the EU.

Key factors driving gold’s movement

Demand for safe-haven assets weakened after US President Donald Trump announced plans to delay proposed 50% tariffs on European goods. While he had initially intended to impose the levies from 1 June, he set a new deadline of 9 July to allow time for negotiations with the European Union.

However, trade risks persist and remain a focal point for markets. Last Friday, Trump warned Apple Inc. that its products could face 25% tariffs if iPhones are manufactured outside the US.

Gold had surged nearly 5% last week amid escalating trade uncertainty and growing concerns over the US economic and fiscal outlook.

Adding to market apprehension, Trump’s new tax bill – already passed by the House of Representatives and now awaiting a Senate vote – could expand the US budget deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade. A final vote is expected by August.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD found support at 3,280 before rallying to 3,364. A corrective pullback towards 3,255 is possible today, followed by a potential upward move to 3,388. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram zone and is now pointing decisively downward.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed its local corrective target. A further decline to at least 3,255 is anticipated today, after which another upward wave may develop towards 3,388. Bullish momentum would likely be exhausted at that point, with the entire rally regarded as a correction within the broader downtrend. Once this correction concludes, a resumption of the downtrend may follow, with a potential decline to 3,222 and an eventual extension towards 3,060. This bearish outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has dipped below 80 and is trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally has stalled as markets digest shifting US-EU trade dynamics, though lingering risks and technical indicators suggest further volatility ahead.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

25 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Platinum & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (8,080 contracts) with Gold (2,772 contracts), Silver (2,288 contracts) and Palladium (2,109 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-618 contracts) and with Copper (-484 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

On the downside, Gold (42 percent) and Palladium (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.4 percent)
Silver (79.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.5 percent)
Copper (52.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.3 percent)
Platinum (57.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (41.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.9 percent)
Steel (73.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.1 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (43 percent) and Palladium (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.3 percent)
Silver (4.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-12.0 percent)
Copper (-3.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.9 percent)
Platinum (43.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.4 percent)
Palladium (17.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.5 percent)
Steel (-10.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	20.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	64.3	4.6
– Net Position:	163,981	-197,648	33,667
– Gross Longs:	238,062	90,256	54,053
– Gross Shorts:	74,081	287,904	20,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	51.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.4	8.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	23.9	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	71.1	7.1
– Net Position:	50,042	-66,779	16,737
– Gross Longs:	70,891	33,798	26,826
– Gross Shorts:	20,849	100,577	10,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.5	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.0	-3.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	31.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	42.9	5.7
– Net Position:	21,038	-23,423	2,385
– Gross Longs:	69,015	64,580	14,164
– Gross Shorts:	47,977	88,003	11,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	50.3	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-1.7	31.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.3	20.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.1	9.0
– Net Position:	17,396	-17,517	121
– Gross Longs:	50,293	17,049	7,490
– Gross Shorts:	32,897	34,566	7,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	53.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.0	-21.3	-100.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	46.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.0	8.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-8,352	7,622	730
– Gross Longs:	5,712	9,344	2,386
– Gross Shorts:	14,064	1,722	1,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	55.4	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-17.0	-6.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	67.1	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	66.1	0.8
– Net Position:	-447	370	77
– Gross Longs:	10,209	24,861	362
– Gross Shorts:	10,656	24,491	285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	27.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	10.1	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (38,920 contracts) with the SOFR 1-Month (20,104 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (5,596 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-232,067 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-95,898 contracts), the Fed Funds (-51,861 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-45,099 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,837 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (72 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (58.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (74.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (72.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (67.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (9.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.8 percent)

10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (22 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-55 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (13.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-54.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-66.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (8.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -131,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -51,861 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	67.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	62.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-131,330	107,990	23,340
– Gross Longs:	371,441	1,439,977	53,265
– Gross Shorts:	502,771	1,331,987	29,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	61.7	92.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.2	21.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -976,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -232,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -744,868 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	59.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	51.2	0.4
– Net Position:	-976,935	966,625	10,310
– Gross Longs:	1,121,206	6,592,088	50,941
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,141	5,625,463	40,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	89.6	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.5	2.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	64.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	65.4	0.4
– Net Position:	15,032	-10,453	-4,579
– Gross Longs:	227,059	838,502	566
– Gross Shorts:	212,027	848,955	5,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	29.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-21.6	-5.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,267,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,222,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	76.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	49.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,267,331	1,140,386	126,945
– Gross Longs:	592,294	3,235,687	250,064
– Gross Shorts:	1,859,625	2,095,301	123,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	83.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	5.9	-0.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,275,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -95,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,180,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	80.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	51.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,275,941	2,097,939	178,002
– Gross Longs:	579,514	5,832,382	439,625
– Gross Shorts:	2,855,455	3,734,443	261,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	16.2	-8.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -851,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	76.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	61.4	6.8
– Net Position:	-851,431	766,540	84,891
– Gross Longs:	503,706	3,980,135	438,754
– Gross Shorts:	1,355,137	3,213,595	353,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.6	77.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-18.3	-22.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -328,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	76.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	60.5	10.9
– Net Position:	-328,444	368,159	-39,715
– Gross Longs:	276,250	1,805,143	218,835
– Gross Shorts:	604,694	1,436,984	258,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.7	76.0	-21.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -72,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	73.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	75.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-72,033	-19,934	91,967
– Gross Longs:	184,197	1,369,023	235,851
– Gross Shorts:	256,230	1,388,957	143,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.3	33.2	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-4.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -246,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	79.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	68.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-246,135	234,924	11,211
– Gross Longs:	117,127	1,577,209	184,656
– Gross Shorts:	363,262	1,342,285	173,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	29.8	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	29.8	-39.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

25 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,474 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,964 contracts) and Cocoa (3,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-29,658 contracts), Soybeans (-17,265 contracts), Cotton (-11,613 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,280 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,245 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,231 contracts), Coffee (-2,770 contracts) and with Sugar (-499 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (70 percent), Coffee (68 percent) and Soybeans (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent) and Wheat (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (20 percent) and the Sugar (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (34.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.7 percent)
Sugar (19.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.8 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (70.5 percent)
Soybeans (62.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (67.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (82.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (80.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (87.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (70.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (64.0 percent)
Cotton (20.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (27.1 percent)
Cocoa (34.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.2 percent)
Wheat (13.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (28 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-5 percent), Wheat (-5 percent) and Sugar (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-25.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-20.2 percent)
Sugar (-5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.7 percent)
Soybeans (16.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-5.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (28.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (3.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (6.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.3 percent)
Wheat (-5.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	46.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	43.6	10.1
– Net Position:	-11,552	39,014	-27,462
– Gross Longs:	342,329	753,623	137,875
– Gross Shorts:	353,881	714,609	165,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	63.1	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	25.0	22.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	52.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	55.2	8.6
– Net Position:	28,431	-21,672	-6,759
– Gross Longs:	202,598	422,726	62,245
– Gross Shorts:	174,167	444,398	69,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	84.7	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	8.8	-22.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	38.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	68.7	3.8
– Net Position:	43,300	-45,702	2,402
– Gross Longs:	54,094	57,447	8,093
– Gross Shorts:	10,794	103,149	5,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	33.4	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.6	14.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	49.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	53.4	7.4
– Net Position:	47,913	-34,716	-13,197
– Gross Longs:	180,039	416,365	49,607
– Gross Shorts:	132,126	451,081	62,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.8	34.7	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-19.8	22.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	44.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	56.7	4.2
– Net Position:	66,919	-74,232	7,313
– Gross Longs:	151,778	262,822	32,354
– Gross Shorts:	84,859	337,054	25,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	23.8	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-9.7	3.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -58,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	48.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	-58,173	35,606	22,567
– Gross Longs:	121,724	288,319	54,354
– Gross Shorts:	179,897	252,713	31,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	91.8	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.2	-3.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	27.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.2	13.6
– Net Position:	103,416	-80,410	-23,006
– Gross Longs:	194,051	107,939	30,314
– Gross Shorts:	90,635	188,349	53,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	24.3	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	8.2	-8.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	31.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	48.1	8.6
– Net Position:	54,721	-50,685	-4,036
– Gross Longs:	120,427	97,715	22,586
– Gross Shorts:	65,706	148,400	26,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	27.5	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-29.8	-10.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	35.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-29,156	31,346	-2,190
– Gross Longs:	62,669	115,625	11,274
– Gross Shorts:	91,825	84,279	13,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.6	6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.3	-1.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,868 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	34.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	23,916	-28,875	4,959
– Gross Longs:	36,248	35,996	10,742
– Gross Shorts:	12,332	64,871	5,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	64.4	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.2	9.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	37.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	17.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-99,626	99,080	546
– Gross Longs:	127,701	180,857	35,140
– Gross Shorts:	227,327	81,777	34,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	89.9	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	8.4	-19.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,625 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (22,609 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,033 contracts)also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,017 contracts), the VIX (-1,675 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,935 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (94 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (90 percent) and Russell-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The Nasdaq-Mini (62 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 50 percent mid-point of the past 3 years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (90.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (93.1 percent)

Nikkei 225 & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (16 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-12.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	45.4	7.6
– Net Position:	4,424	-5,585	1,161
– Gross Longs:	80,402	130,533	23,915
– Gross Shorts:	75,978	136,118	22,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-15.4	1.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -96,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	74.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	71.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-96,569	51,097	45,472
– Gross Longs:	246,588	1,571,120	239,544
– Gross Shorts:	343,157	1,520,023	194,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	42.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	9.1	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	62.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	67.1	16.8
– Net Position:	8,147	-3,719	-4,428
– Gross Longs:	14,117	49,297	8,830
– Gross Shorts:	5,970	53,016	13,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	32.8	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-6.0	-16.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	55.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	57.0	15.9
– Net Position:	14,530	-3,723	-10,807
– Gross Longs:	82,637	155,475	33,720
– Gross Shorts:	68,107	159,198	44,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	49.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	28.7	-32.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	72.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.4	6.2
– Net Position:	-5,747	9,349	-3,602
– Gross Longs:	72,733	315,935	23,370
– Gross Shorts:	78,480	306,586	26,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	29.7	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	3.2	-34.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	88.1	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	89.5	1.2
– Net Position:	774	-6,447	5,673
– Gross Longs:	43,477	411,441	11,284
– Gross Shorts:	42,703	417,888	5,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	18.5	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-7.5	-14.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

23 May

US solar manufacturers lag skyrocketing market demand

By Mojtaba Akhavan-Tafti, University of Michigan

U.S. consumer demand for renewable energy continues to grow, with more solar panel capacity installed in 2024 than in 2023, which saw more than in 2022. But U.S. trade policy is in flux, and high tariffs have been imposed on imported solar panels, which may cause shortages.

I am a scholar who studies the Sun, as well as an entrepreneur who is working to harness its power here on Earth by creating new designs for generating solar electricity. As part of that effort, I’ve studied market trends and manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and abroad. Right now, U.S. manufacturers do not produce enough solar panels to meet the nation’s demand, but industry investments and federal tax incentives have been making progress, though recent federal moves have created uncertainty.

In 2024, U.S. installers put up enough solar panels to generate 50 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power New York City for a year.

U.S. manufacturers made only a small fraction of that – 4.2 GW of solar modules in the first half of 2024. That was a big boost, though – a 75% increase compared with the same period in 2023. And the prices were roughly three times the cost of imports.

A look at recent imports

In 2024, the U.S. imported far more panels than the country needed, suggesting developers may be stockpiling panels for future projects.

Most of those imported panels were made in Asia, particularly Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. In fact, nearly all of the U.S.-made panels used at least some components from overseas. China currently makes about 97% of the world’s supply of photovoltaic wafers, which are building blocks of solar panels.

The effects of proposed U.S. trade policies on the solar industry remain unclear. Through 2024, manufacturing continued a yearslong ramp-up to take advantage of government policies favoring domestic manufacturing. And imported panels seem slated to suffer from ever-increasing tariffs, which drive up costs.

Domestic production rises

Since 2010, U.S. solar panel production has increased about eightfold. But U.S.-made panels are more expensive than imported alternatives. In 2024, U.S.-made panels typically cost 31 cents per watt, but imported panels, even including tariffs that existed before President Donald Trump’s second term, cost about one-third of that: 11 cents per watt.

But domestic manufacturers are bringing costs down by ramping up production while relying on the government to maintain or increase tariffs on imports, which may make U.S. panels more competitive domestically in the future.

Reliance on overseas sources

Despite that increase in domestic production, U.S. demand for solar panels has grown even faster. To meet demand, the U.S. imports a substantial portion of its solar photovoltaic modules.

Tariffs, including a 30% tariff on solar cells and solar panels starting in 2018, aimed to boost domestic manufacturing.

But those tariffs and falling global prices made solar installations more costly in the U.S. than in the rest of the world. The average global cost of installed solar systems dropped from $1.15 per watt in 2012 to $0.72 per watt in 2016, nearly half that of U.S. installations.

The 2018 tariffs, as well as earlier rounds in 2012 and 2014, have shifted the source of U.S. imports of solar panels – from China and Taiwan to Malaysia and South Korea. Manufacturers are also building solar panels in Singapore and Germany to maintain access to the U.S. market. And Chinese companies are even investing in U.S. solar manufacturers to take advantage of federal incentives and avoid tariffs.

New tariffs emerge

Trump’s proposal for new tariffs on foreign-made solar goods, including panels and components, particularly target Chinese-owned companies in Southeast Asia.

They could include a potential 375% tariff on Thai products – nearly quadrupling prices – and a 3,500% tariff on products from Cambodia.

In contrast, U.S.-made solar panels will be cheaper. But a reduced supply of solar panels will raise prices even of domestic-made panels, at least until U.S. manufacturing can catch up with the demand. Some developers have begun to delay or cancel solar installations to address rising costs.

Domestic investment

Due in large part to the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in 2022, the U.S. solar panel industry has seen significant investments.

Since the law’s enactment, more than 95 GW of manufacturing capability have been added across the solar supply chain in the U.S., including new facilities that in a year can construct enough solar panels to produce nearly 42 GW, beyond existing manufacturing levels. This growth in manufacturing capabilities is largely located in Texas and Georgia.

Still, the new administration’s shifting priorities and trade policies make the landscape uncertain. Before Trump began discussing various solar-related trade policies, the industry projected it would install an average of 45 GW of solar panels every year for the next decade.

About the Author:

Mojtaba Akhavan-Tafti, Associate Research Scientist, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

23 May

The Eurozone has seen a sharp contraction in the service sector. Bitcoin has surpassed the $110,800 mark

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones index (US30) was virtually unchanged. The S&P500 Index (US500) was down 0.04%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.15%. Wall Street remained cautious as a bill to cut taxes and increase defense spending now heads to the Senate and could add trillions to the $36 trillion national debt. The US Congressional Budget Office estimates spending at nearly $4 trillion, raising concerns about budget instability. Bond markets reflected this concern, with 30-year Treasury yields briefly hitting 5.14%, the highest level since 2023.

The US initial jobless claims fell 2,000 from the previous week to 227,000 for the period ended May 17, the lowest in four weeks and below market expectations for a rise to 230,000. The result extended a period of relative strength in the US labor market.

Bitcoin surpassed the $110,800 mark for the first time in history as the US government’s deregulation of cryptocurrencies reinforced the positive momentum since mid-April. Democrats in Congress dropped their opposition to a bill aimed at regulating stable cryptocurrencies, paving the way for legislation by the end of the week. The move reinforced expectations that government regulation of cryptocurrencies tied to the US dollar could spur the adoption of the asset class.

European stocks closed significantly lower on Thursday, following declines in global equities amid concerns over rising US debt and risks to European growth. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.58%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) lost 0.25%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.54% yesterday. In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.5 in May, the highest reading since June 2024 and slightly above market expectations of 87.4, indicating some easing of recent uncertainty among companies. However, PMI data pointed to a renewed and sharper-than-expected contraction in the Eurozone’s private sector — the strongest in six months — driven by a moderate decline in service sector activity. Output declined in Germany and France, while the rest of the Eurozone continued to show positive growth.

WTI crude prices fell by 0.6% to settle at $61.2 a barrel on Thursday, pressured by reports that OPEC+ is considering increasing production in July, raising concerns about a potential supply glut. A production increase of 411,000 barrels per day is reportedly being discussed, although a final decision has yet to be made. Prices were further impacted by an unexpected 1.3 million barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, driven by higher imports and lower demand for the fuel.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell more than 3% to $3.25/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories. Inventories rose by 120 billion cubic feet last week, exceeding forecasts of 115 Bcf and well above last year’s 78 Bcf and the five-year average of 87 Bcf. The growth was driven by mild weather that limited heating and cooling demand.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.84%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.19%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.45%.

On May 23, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY500 billion into financial institutions under a one-year medium-term credit line (MTL) to maintain sufficient liquidity in the country’s banking system. This month’s net injection of MLF was down from CNY600 billion in the previous month.

New Zealand retail sales in the three months to March 2025 rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, following an upwardly revised 1% increase, and beat market expectations for a 0.1% increase. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose 0.7%, the second increase since Q3 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in the previous quarter.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate in April 2025 was 0.9%, unchanged from the previous two months but slightly above market expectations of 0.8%. The rate remained at its lowest level since February 2021. Singapore’s core consumer prices rose 0.7% year-on-year in April 2025, accelerating from a four-year low of 0.5% in the previous month and exceeding market forecasts of 0.5%. This was the highest core inflation rate since January, mainly driven by higher inflation in services and food.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,842.01 −2.60 (−0.044%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,859.09 −1.35 (−0.0032%)

DAX (DE40) 23,999.17 −123.23 (−0.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,739.26 −47.20 (−0.54%)

USD index 99.94 +0.38 (+0.38%)

News feed for: 2025.05.23

New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 May

Week Ahead: 3 assets that may hit new highs – Bitcoin, GBPUSD, and US500 index

By ForexTime

Mon, May 26^th: US, UK markets closed
Tue, May 27^th: Positive signals out of Bitcoin 2025 conference may send Bitcoin to fresh record highs
Wed, May 28^th: Better-than-expected Nvidia earnings could boost US500 index above 6k
Wed, May 28^th: US dollar also sensitive to FOMC meeting minutes, Fed speak
Fri, May 30^th: Weaker USD could send GBPUSD above 1.360 on higher-than-expected US PCE data, contentious US-Japan trade talks

Recent days have seen major assets claim new heights:

Tuesday, May 20: US500 stock index got close to 3-month high

The US500 index got to within 0.3% of the psychological 6k level – a level not reached since late-February – before paring gains.

Tiring optimism that the worst of the US-led trade war is now behind us eventually gave way mid-week to concerns about the US fiscal deficit (the gap between US government’s spending and income) prompted some profit taking on the benchmark US stock index.

US500 got within touching distance of 6k, only to falter on US fiscal deficit concerns

Thursday, May 22: Bitcoin hits new record high

Bitcoin touched the $112,000 mark for the first time in its history on Thursday, May 22nd.

This ascent to a new all-time peak was fuelled by optimism that new US stablecoin legislation (potentially to be passed by the US House today – Friday, May 23rd) will lead to greater mainstream adoption of the world’s oldest and biggest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin hits new record high, briefly touched $112,000

Friday, May 23rd: GBPUSD punches up to 3-year high

This FX pair nickname “cable” is closing in on the psychological 1.3500 level, reaching its highest levels since February 2022.

This comes after stronger-than-expected UK economic data releases:

Wed: May 21: higher-than-expected inflation data
Fri, May 23: stronger-than-expected retail sales figures

These figures suggest a more resilient-than-expected UK economy, potentially delaying more rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), which in turn supports the British Pound.

GBPUSD also got a helping hand from the weaker US dollar, amid rising concerns about the US fiscal deficit, fuelled by President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” narrow approval by the House, featuring tax cuts.

But there’s bound to be more market action in the final week of May 2025.

(despite US and UK markets being closed on Monday, May 26th)

The coming week features many potential market-moving events:

Monday, May 26

SG20 index: Singapore April industrial production
US, UK markets closed

Tuesday, May 27

CN50 index: China April industrial profits
USDJPY: Speeches by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
EU50 index: Eurozone May economic confidence; Germany June consumer confidence
US30 index: US May consumer confidence
Bitcoin 2025 conference

Wednesday, May 28

AUD: Australia April CPI
NZD: RBNZ rate decision
TWN index: Taiwan 1Q GDP
GER40 index: Germany May unemployment
USDInd: FOMC May meeting minutes; speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
Nvidia earnings

Thursday, May 29

ZAR: South Africa rate decision
US400 index: US 1Q GDP (second estimate); weekly initial jobless claims
USDInd: Speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Friday, May 30

JPY: US-Japan trade talks; May Tokyo CPI
JP225 index: Japan April industrial production, jobless rate, retail sales
AU200 index: Australia April retail sales
EUR: Germany May CPI
MXN: Mexico April unemployment rate
CAD: Canada 1Q GDP
US500 index: US April PCE, personal income and spending

Now, we zoom in on specific events that could either determine if Bitcoin, the US dollar, and the US500 can extend their uptrend, or be forced to pull back:

1) Tuesday – Thursday, May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 Conference

Although US President Donald Trump will not repeat his attendance from last year’s conference, there will be speeches by:

JD Vance, US Vice President
David Sacks, White House AI & Crypto Czar

These speeches come as a major stablecoin legislation is, at the time of writing, about to be passed by the Senate.

If Vance and Sacks, along with other crypto luminaries can further stoke optimism that even greater mainstream crypto adoption is in store, that could send Bitcoin closer to $120k this week.

2) Wednesday, May 28 (after US markets close): Nvidia earnings

With a market cap of US$ 3.24 trillion, Nvidia is now the 2^ndbiggest company by market cap on the benchmark S&P 500 index (tracked by FXTM’s US500) – just behind Microsoft’s US3.38 trillion market cap.

Nvidia is set to release its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings (3 months ending April 30^th) after US markets close on Wednesday, May 28^th.

After this pivotal announcement, Nvidia’s shares are forecasted to react with a 1-day move of 6.5% up/down, when US markets reopen on Thursday, May 29^th.

Using the closing price from Thursday, May 22^nd as the base, a post-earnings 6.5% move to the upside on May 29^th could launch Nvidia’s shares back above the $140 level, and even possibly the US500 above the 6,000 line!

Given that Nvidia alone accounts for about 6% of the S&P 500, the market’s reaction to Nvidia’s earnings is bound to move the broader US500 index as well.

3) Friday, May 30: US April PCE (personal consumption expenditure)

This is the Fed’s preferred way of measuring US inflation (as opposed to consumer price indexes – CPI – typically released mid-month).

Economists currently predict:

PCE month-on-month (April 2025 vs. March 2025): slight uptick to 0.1% vs. the 0% m/m figures in March 2025
PCE year-on-year (April 2025 vs. April 2024): slight cooling of 10 basis points respectively for PCE (2.2% y/y) and Core PCE (2.5% y/y).

Traders and investors will be relying next on these PCE figures to determine the timing of the next Fed rate cut.

Markets currently predict an 82% chance that the Fed will next cut rates in September.

Higher-than-expected PCE data may fuel fears of a US stagflation (stubborn inflation accompanied with sluggish economic growth).

US stagflation could in turn prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates despite a darkening US economic outlook.

Greater prospects of US stagflation could weaken the US Dollar and allow GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices go up) to seek prices above 1.360.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there’s a 75.6% chance that GBPUSD will trade between 1.334 – 1.365 over the coming week.

Besides the PCE data, the US dollar is also set to react to more clues about the Fed’s rate cuts via:

May 27-29th: 7 different Fed officials making scheduled public comments from Tuesday through Thursday
May 28th: FOMC’s May meeting minutes release
May 30th: US-Japan trade talks, inflation data out of major economies (Japan, Germany).

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

23 May

EUR/USD Could Climb as Dollar Faces Mounting Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The euro has regained strength against the dollar, with EUR/USD holding steady at 1.1312 on Friday.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD’s movement

The US dollar remains vulnerable as investor concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist. President Donald Trump’s proposed budget bill – featuring tax cuts and heightened defence spending – has stoked fears of surging national debt.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill could inflate the US national debt by nearly $4 trillion, raising alarms over long-term fiscal stability.

Further pressuring the dollar, Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing widening budget deficits and rising debt-servicing costs.

Meanwhile, investor appetite for US assets has waned amid sluggish progress in trade negotiations.

Although this week saw limited high-impact US data releases, the market has welcomed the brief lull. Today, traders will focus on April’s new home sales report for fresh directional cues.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1255 before correcting to 1.1311, with a consolidation range nearing completion. We anticipate a downward expansion towards 1.1120, supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram zone and points decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a downward impulse structure, followed by a correction to 1.1311. Today, a renewed decline towards 1.1240 appears likely. A break below this level could extend the downtrend to 1.1170. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line hovering above 80, poised to drop towards 20.

Conclusion

With the dollar weighed down by fiscal concerns and a credit rating downgrade, EUR/USD may extend its gains. Traders should monitor today’s US housing data for further momentum.

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