29 May

NASDAQ Listing for Crypto Co. a Milestone

Source: Mark Palmer (5/27/25)

The upgrade from the OTC should afford this growing fintech various benefits, including greater visibility, noted a Benchmark report.

DeFi Technologies Inc. (DEFT:NASDAQ; DEFI:CBOE; R9B:FSE) received approval to list its common shares on the NASDAQ starting today, under the symbol DEFT, reported Benchmark Analyst Mark Palmer in a May 12 research note. Benchmark increased its target price on the fintech firm on expected growth in 2025.

“We believe DeFi’s uplisting to the NASDAQ is likely to result in significantly increased liquidity for the stock, broader institutional ownership and sell-side coverage of its shares and a lower overall cost of capital for the company,” Palmer wrote.

DeFi, offering exposure to a differentiated portfolio of cryptocurrencies, no longer will trade on the OTC. It will, however, continue on the CBOE in Canada (symbol DEFI), where it has traded since September 2016, and on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (symbol R9B).

Target Price Raised

Benchmark raised its target price on the digital assets firm to CA$8 per share from CA$5 based on 15x its forecasted full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.53, noted Palmer.

“Our bullish stance toward DeFi’s shares is rooted in our confidence that it will be able to execute on its aggressive growth plans during the balance of the year and beyond,” wrote the analyst.

Those include adding at least 40 new crypto-focused exchange-traded products (ETPs) by year-end, taking the total count to more than 100. Plans also include expansion in the U.K., Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, toward which the company has been working.

DeFi announced in its last monthly update that it increased its assets under management (AUM) in April to CA$988 (CA$988M), reflecting an 11.7% month-over-month increase. This is attributed to rising crypto prices and CA$10.8M of net inflows into DeFi’s ETPs. In other growth news, the DeFi Alpha trading desk closed a CA$30.5M arbitrage trade on May 5.

Stock Undervalued, 44% Uplift

DeFi was trading, at the time of Palmer’s report, at CA$5.55 per share, the analyst noted. While this level is consistent with the fintech’s growth prospects, it is at a steep discount to other crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN:NASDAQ), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD:NASDAQ) and Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. (GXLY:TSX).

From this share price, the return to target is 44%. DeFi is a Buy.

Changes to Estimates

Palmer reported that Benchmark tweaked its estimates for DeFi to account for its progress as well as the recent uptick in crypto prices. For Q1/25, estimated revenue was reduced to CA$27M from CA$52.7M and estimate earnings per share was lowered to CA$0.06 from CA$0.09.

Q2/25 EPS was raised to CA$0.16 from CA$0.10 to reflect DeFi Alpha’s May 5 arbitrage trade.

More Stock Details

Palmer reported that on May 12, DeFi had 298 million shares outstanding, a market cap of CA$1.2 billion and a 52-week range of CA$0.75–5.56 per share.

 

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Disclosures for Benchmark Equity Research, DeFi Technologies Inc., May 12, 2025

alyst Certification The Benchmark Company, LLC (“Benchmark”) analyst(s) whose name(s) appears on the front page of this research report certifies that the recommendations and opinions expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issues discussed herein. Furthermore, no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.

Equity Research Ratings System Firm-Wide Stock Ratings Distribution As of March 31, 2025 All Covered Companies Investment Banking Clients Buy 266 73.7% 57 15.8% Hold 73 20.2% 5 1.4% Speculative Buy 20 5.5% 11 3.0% Sell 2 0.6% 0 0.0% Company Ratings Buy: Stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 months. Speculative Buy: The stock has a market value below $100M and/or a higher financial risk profile. It is expected to outperform the analyst’s defined sector/industry index over the following 6 to 12 months. Hold: Stock is expected to perform in-line with the analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 months. Sell: Stock is expected to underperform the analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 months. Industry Ratings Overweight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is expected to outperform the S&P 500 over the following 6 to 12 months. Market Weight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is expected to perform in-line with the S&P 500 over the following 6 to 12 months. Underweight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is expected to underperform the S&P 500 over the following 6 to 12 months. Benchmark Disclosures as of May 12, 2025 Company Disclosure DeFi Technologies Inc Research Disclosure Legend 1. In the past 12 months, Benchmark and its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. 2. In the past 12 months, Benchmark and its affiliates have managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for the subject company. 3. Benchmark and its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next three months. 4. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the shares or derivatives of the subject company. 5. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly involved in preparation of this report has a short position in the shares or derivatives of this subject company. 6. A member of the research analyst’s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. 7. As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this report, or the prior month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, Benchmark and its affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of equity securities of the subject company. 8. A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of Benchmark, or a member of his/her household, is an officer, director or advisor, board member of the subject company and/or one of its subsidiaries. 9. Benchmark makes a market in the securities of the subject company. 10. In the past 12 months, Benchmark, its partners, affiliates, officers or directors, or any analyst involved in the preparation of this report, has provided non-investment banking securities-related services to the subject company for remuneration. 11. In the past 12 months, Benchmark, its partners, affiliates, officers or directors, or any analyst involved in the preparation of this report, has provided non-securities related services to the subject company for remuneration. Investment Risk Risks to our investment thesis include crypto market volatility, regulatory risk, changing investor sentiment resulting in reduced ETP flows, and liquidity risk. Valuation Methodology Our C$8.00 price target for DEFI is based on 15x the company’s FY25E diluted earnings per share of C$0.53. We believe the multiple we have used reflects DEFI’s ample growth prospects. Price Charts Benchmark’s disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA regulations. Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price changes occurring in the current quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.

General Disclosures The Benchmark Company, LLC. (“Benchmark” or “the Firm”) compensates research analysts, like other Firm employees, based on the Firm’s overall revenue and profitability, which includes revenues from the Firm’s institutional sales, trading, and investment banking departments. No portion of the analyst’s compensation is based on a specific banking transaction. Analyst compensation is based upon a variety of factors, including the quality of analysis, performance of recommendations and overall service to the Firm’s institutional clients. This publication does not constitute an offer or solicitation of any transaction in any securities referred to herein. Ratings that use the “Speculative” risk qualifier are considered higher risk. Any recommendation contained herein may not be suitable for all investors. The Benchmark Company, LLC makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. We have no obligation to disclose when information in this report changes apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of a subject company. Although the information contained in the subject report has been obtained from sources, we believe to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This publication and any recommendation contained herein speak only as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The Benchmark Company, LLC and its affiliated companies and employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information herein. This publication is being furnished to you for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. Each investor must make its own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein based on the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment strategy. By virtue of this publication, none of The Benchmark Company, LLC or any of its employees shall be responsible for any investment decision. This report may discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain states and may therefore not be offered to investors in such states. The “Recent Price” stated on the cover page reflects the nearest closing price prior to the date of publication. For additional disclosure information regarding the companies in this report, please contact The Benchmark Company, LLC, 150 East 58th Street, New York, NY 10155, 212-312-6770. The Benchmark Company, LLC is not in any way affiliated with or endorsed by the Menlo Park, California venture capital firm Benchmark Capital.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
29 May

EUR/USD Extends Losses for Third Consecutive Day

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The euro/dollar pair continues to decline on Thursday, edging closer to 1.1256 as the US dollar strengthens for a third straight session. This development follows a US federal court ruling that former President Donald Trump overstepped his authority by imposing retaliatory tariffs.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movement

The US Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs were unlawful not only for the five companies that brought the lawsuit but also for all parties. The court ordered the immediate and permanent revocation of these tariffs, although the Trump administration is expected to appeal the decision.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring debates in the US Senate over Trump’s expansive tax and budget bill, which is likely to face substantial amendments in the upper chamber.

Yesterday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a cautious, wait-and-see stance among officials. Policymakers are evaluating the economic repercussions of recent government measures and the ongoing tariff dispute, with noted concerns over rising inflation and unemployment risks.

Thursday’s market focus will shift to key economic data, including the second estimate of US Q1 GDP and the weekly US jobless claims report.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

  • The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1313 before breaking downward to 1.1210
  • A technical retracement to 1.1313 (testing from below) is anticipated today
  • If the price breaks downward from this range, the downtrend could extend towards 1.1080
  • Conversely, an upward breakout may signal a corrective move towards 1.1485
  • The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

  • The market completed a downward wave to 1.1313, followed by consolidation and a further drop to 1.1210 in a double-wave extension structure
  • Today, a potential upside wave to 1.1260 is in play, with a possible continuation towards 1.1313
  • The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80

 

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid dollar strength and political uncertainty, with technical indicators suggesting further downside potential unless a corrective rebound materialises.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
29 May

Critical minerals don’t belong in landfills – microwave tech offers a cleaner way to reclaim them from e-waste

By Terence Musho, West Virginia University 

When the computer or phone you’re using right now blinks its last blink and you drop it off for recycling, do you know what happens?

At the recycling center, powerful magnets will pull out steel. Spinning drums will toss aluminum into bins. Copper wires will get neatly bundled up for resale. But as the conveyor belt keeps rolling, tiny specks of valuable, lesser-known materials such as gallium, indium and tantalum will be left behind.

Those tiny specks are critical materials. They’re essential for building new technology, and they’re in short supply in the U.S. They could be reused, but there’s a problem: Current recycling methods make recovering critical minerals from e-waste too costly or hazardous, so many recyclers simply skip them.

Sadly, most of these hard-to-recycle materials end up buried in landfills or get mixed into products like cement. But it doesn’t have to be this way. New technology is starting to make a difference.

Multiple printed circuit boards laid on top of one another.
A treasure trove of critical materials is often overlooked in e-waste, including gallium in LEDs, indium in LCDs, and tantalum in surface mount capacitors.
Ansan Pokharel/West Virginia University, CC BY

As demand for these critical materials keeps growing, discarded electronics can become valuable resources. My colleagues and I at West Virginia University are developing a new technology to change how we recycle. Instead of using toxic chemicals, our approach uses electricity, making it safer, cleaner and more affordable to recover critical materials from electronics.

How much e-waste are we talking about?

Americans generated about 2.7 million tons of electronic waste in 2018, according to the latest federal data. Including uncounted electronics, a survey by the United Nations suggests that the U.S. recycles only about 15% of its total e-waste.

Even worse, nearly half the electronics that people in Northern America sent to recycling centers end up shipped overseas. They often land in scrapyards, where workers may use dangerous methods like burning or leaching using harsh chemicals to pull out valuable metals. These practices can harm both the environment and workers’ health. That’s why the Environmental Protection Agency restricts these methods in the U.S.

The tiny specks matter

Critical minerals are in most of the technology around you. Every phone screen has a super-thin layer of a material called indium tin oxide. LEDs glow because of a metal called gallium. Tantalum stores energy in tiny electronic parts called capacitors.

All of these materials are flagged as “high risk” on the U.S. Department of Energy’s critical materials list. That means the U.S. relies heavily on these materials for important technologies, but their supply could be easily disrupted by conflicts, trade disputes or shortages.

Right now, just a few countries, including China, control most of the mining, processing and recovery of these materials, making the U.S. vulnerable if those countries decide to limit exports or raise prices.

These materials aren’t cheap, either. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey reports that gallium was priced between US$220 to $500 per kilogram in 2024. That’s 50 times more expensive than common metals like copper, at $9.48 per kilogram in 2024.

Revolutionizing recycling with microwaves

At West Virginia University’s Department of Mechanical, Materials and Aerospace Engineering, I and materials scientist Edward Sabolsky asked a simple question: Could we find a way to heat only specific parts of electronic waste to recover these valuable materials?

If we could focus the heat on just the tiny specks of critical minerals, we might be able to recycle them easily and efficiently.

The solution we found: microwaves.

This equipment isn’t very different from the microwave ovens you use to heat food at home, just bigger and more powerful. The basic science is the same – electromagnetic waves cause electrons to oscillate, creating heat.

In our approach, though, we’re not heating water molecules like you do when cooking. Instead, we heat carbon, the black residue that collects around a candle flame or car tailpipe. Carbon heats up much faster in a microwave than water does. But don’t try this at home; your kitchen microwave wasn’t designed for such high temperatures.

Photo of a chemistry lab space with colorful gas bottles. At the center of the image is a microwave reactor connected by a waveguide to a microwave source.
West Virginia University researchers are using this experimental microwave reactor to recycle critical materials from end-of-life electronics.
Ansan Pokharel/West Virginia University, CC BY

In our recycling method, we first shred the electronic waste, mix it with materials called fluxes that trap impurities, and then heat the mixture with microwaves. The microwaves rapidly heat the carbon that comes from the plastics and adhesives in the e-waste. This causes the carbon to react with the tiny specks of critical materials. The result: a tiny piece of pure, sponge-like metal about the size of a grain of rice.

This metal can then be easily separated from leftover waste using filters.

So far, in our laboratory tests, we have successfully recovered about 80% of the gallium, indium and tantalum from e-waste, at purities between 95% and 97%. We have also demonstrated how it can be integrated with existing recycling processes.

Why the Department of Defense is interested

Our recycling technology got its start with help from a program funded by the Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA.

Many important technologies, from radar systems to nuclear reactors, depend on these special materials. While the Department of Defense uses less of them than the commercial market, they are a national security concern.

We’re planning to launch larger pilot projects next to test the method on smartphone circuit boards, LED lighting parts and server cards from data centers. These tests will help us fine-tune the design for a bigger system that can recycle tons of e-waste per hour instead of just a few pounds. That could mean producing up to 50 pounds of these critical minerals per hour from every ton of e-waste processed.

If the technology works as expected, we believe this approach could help meet the nation’s demand for critical materials.

How to make e-waste recycling common

One way e-waste recycling could become more common is if Congress held electronics companies responsible for recycling their products and recovering the critical materials inside. Closing loopholes that allow companies to ship e-waste overseas, instead of processing it safely in the U.S., could also help build a reserve of recovered critical minerals.

But the biggest change may come from simple economics. Once technology becomes available to recover these tiny but valuable specks of critical materials quickly and affordably, the U.S. can transform domestic recycling and take a big step toward solving its shortage of critical materials.The Conversation

About the Author:

Terence Musho, Associate Professor of Engineering, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Energy Opinions
28 May

Public health and private equity: What the Walgreens buyout could mean for the future of pharmacy care

By Patrick Aguilar, Washington University in St. Louis and Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis 

Pharmacies are more than just stores – they’re vital links between people and their health care.

One of us, Patrick, witnessed this firsthand in 2003 while working as a pharmacy technician at Walgreens in a midsize West Texas town. Each day involved handling hundreds of prescriptions as they moved through the system – meticulously counting pills, deciphering doctors’ handwriting and sorting out confusing insurance issues. The experience revealed that how pharmacies are owned and managed is as much a public health issue as it is a financial one.

Fast-forward to today, and Walgreens – one of the world’s largest pharmacy chains, which filled nearly 800 million U.S. prescriptions in 2024 – is at a turning point. In March, the company announced it would be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners for US$10 billion, just 10% of its peak market value. That deal takes the storied pharmacy chain off the public market for the first time in nearly 100 years.

We’re professors who study the intersection of medicine and business, and we think this deal offers a window into the future of pharmacy care. It matters not just to pharmacists but also to the tens of millions of Americans who rely on outlets like Walgreens to meet their everyday health needs.

The rise and struggles of Walgreens

A lot has changed in the pharmacy industry since 1901, when Charles R. Walgreen Sr. purchased the Chicago drugstore where he served as a pharmacist. The company went public in 1927, expanded rapidly throughout the 20th century and grew to 8,000 stores by 2013. By 2014, a merger with the European pharmacy chain Alliance Boots made Walgreens one of the largest pharmacy chains in the world.

More recently, however, the picture for the pharmacy industry hasn’t been so rosy. Labor costs have risen. Front-end retail sales – things like snacks, greeting cards and cosmetics – have fallen. And financial pressures from pharmacy benefit managers – those third-party groups that manage the cost of prescription drug benefits on the behalf of insurers – have grown.

All of these things have significantly constrained revenues across the industry, leading stores to shutter. Some estimates suggest that as many as one-third of U.S. retail pharmacies have closed since 2010.

Against that backdrop, Sycamore Partners’ March acquisition of Walgreens raises big questions. What does Sycamore see in this investment, and what might their strategies imply about the future of American pharmacy care?

Framing the private equity bet

Private equity firms typically buy companies, streamline their operations and seek to sell them for a profit within five to seven years of the acquisition.

This growing movement of private equity into the global economy is by no means limited to health care. In 2020, private equity firms employed 11.7 million U.S. workers, or about 7% of the country’s total workforce. The total assets under management by such investors have grown by over 11% annually over the past two decades, a trend that’s expected to continue.

In looking at Walgreens, Sycamore, like many of these businesses, likely sees an opportunity to buy low, cut costs and improve profitability. One survey of private equity investors found that the most common self-reported sources of value creation in these deals for companies of Sycamore’s size were changing the product and marketing it more robustly to drive demand, changing incentives for those within the business, and facilitating a high-value exit.

While private owners may have more patience than public markets, critics argue that private equity firms tend to have a short-term focus, looking for quick, predictable services of margin improvement – like, for example, cutting jobs.

There’s some evidence in favor of that claim. One study found that employment often drops in the years following a private equity buyout. And if the focus shifts to repaying debt or prepping for resale, long-term projects, such as investing in future innovation, can get deprioritized.

The history of privatized public companies offers a mix of successes and failures. Dell Technologies and hotel chain Hilton are two prominent examples of companies that went private, restructured successfully and came back stronger. In those cases, going private helped management focus without the constant pressure of quarterly earnings reports.

On the other hand, companies such as Toys R Us, which was taken private in 2005 and filed for bankruptcy in 2018, show how high debt and missed innovation can lead to collapse.

What’s next for Walgreens

So, where does this leave Walgreens − and the investors involved in the deal?

If part of the returns will be driven by “buying low” – the easiest indicator of potential future success to measure as of today – Sycamore started well: Its purchase price represents a mere 8% premium over the market trading value on the day of the announcement, significantly less than the 46% seen across industries in 2023. That said, Sycamore financed 83.4% of the purchase with debt, a number on the high end for these kinds of transactions. Health care groups have pointed to this number while raising concerns that innovation-focused investments may take a back seat to debt obligations.

As the dust settles on the purchase, Sycamore has indicated an interest in splitting Walgreens into three business units: one focused on U.S. pharmacies, one on U.K. pharmacies and one on U.S. primary health care through its VillageMD subsidiary.

That’s not unusual: Sycamore has used a similar approach before with its investment in the office supply retailer Staples, a strategy that has garnered strong financial returns but been called into question for its long-term sustainability.

Given the significant financial challenges VillageMD has faced since its acquisition by Walgreens, this represents an opportunity to separately evaluate and optimize its performance. Meanwhile, Sycamore’s historic focus on retail and customer-focused businesses might help it modernize the in-store experience or optimize staffing.

For more than a century, Walgreens has survived and adapted to sweeping changes in retail. Now, it’s entering a new chapter – one that could reshape not just its own future but the role of pharmacies in American life.

Will Sycamore help Walgreens thrive, using its resources to strengthen services and deliver more value to customers? Or will pressure to generate quick returns create problems? Either way, the answer matters – not just for investors but for anyone who’s ever relied on their neighborhood pharmacy to stay healthy.The Conversation

About the Author:

Patrick Aguilar, Professor of Practice of Organizational Behavior, Washington University in St. Louis and Peter Boumgarden, Professor of Family Enterprise, Washington University in St. Louis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News
28 May

RBNZ expectedly cut the interest rate. Inflationary pressures in Australia remained at the same level

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.78%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 2.05%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 2.39%. The US stocks rose sharply on the first trading day of the week, following gains in Treasury securities as markets eased concerns that a new trade war could hamper the corporate outlook.

Tesla shares rose by 6.5% after CEO Elon Musk said he was going to refocus on his companies and reduce political involvement. Nvidia also added 3%, setting the pace for chipmakers ahead of its earnings release this week.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.83%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 0.69%. European stocks closed solidly higher on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s sharp gains amid easing fears of a trade war with the United States and renewed support from the defense sector. On the economic front, GfK surveys and Eurozone sentiment indicators improved in May.

WTI crude oil prices dipped to $61 a barrel after earlier gains as traders await the OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to decide on an increase in oil production. Sources say OPEC+ is likely to approve a 411,000 bpd production increase in July, continuing a trend of accelerating supply growth after a similar increase scheduled for June.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.43% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.56%.

The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.594 on Wednesday, after briefly falling to $0.592 following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. As expected, the RBNZ cut the official money rate by 25 bps to 3.25% for the sixth consecutive time as inflation remains within the target range. The Central Bank also signaled that it has room for further rate cuts to support the economic recovery overshadowed by the US tariffs. The RBNZ now expects a monetary rate cut to 2.92% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and to 2.85% in the first quarter of 2026.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.643 on Wednesday, extending its recent decline despite stronger-than-expected inflation data. Monthly CPI for April came in at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous two months but slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. The data provided limited support for the currency as markets remain focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish outlook. The Central Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points last week and is expected to continue easing in the coming months.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,921.54 +118.72 (+2.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,343.65 +740.58 (+1.78%)

DAX (DE40) 24,226.49 +198.84 (+0.83%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,778.05 +60.08 (+0.69%)

USD Index 99.60 +0.49 (+0.50%)

News feed for: 2025.05.28

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Unemployment Rate at 10:55 (m/m) (GMT+3);
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 May

USD/JPY Rises Steadily as Yen Weakens Amid Bond Market Pressures

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair extended its gains on Wednesday, climbing to 144.46 as the Japanese yen depreciated for the third consecutive session.

Key factors driving USD/JPY movement

Markets are closely scrutinising remarks from major central bankers and developments in the bond sector.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that ongoing trade discussions with the US are contributing to heightened uncertainty in Japan’s economic outlook. He reiterated the central bank’s readiness to adjust monetary policy if necessary to achieve its inflation targets.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that authorities are closely monitoring the bond market. This comes after both the yen and Japanese government bond (JGB) yields fell sharply following reports that the Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long-dated bonds.

The potential reduction in bond supply appears to be an effort to curb rising yields, particularly after last week’s disappointing 20-year bond auction, which saw the weakest demand in a decade. Investors are now turning their attention to an upcoming 40-year bond sale.

Additionally, subdued market volatility and a stable external backdrop have diminished demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset, further contributing to its decline.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward wave to 142.15 before initiating an upward move towards 145.50, which remains the primary target. Today, we anticipate the completion of this upward wave, followed by a potential pullback to 143.81. A broader consolidation phase around this level is also plausible. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero and continues to trend upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair formed a consolidation range around 143.85 after an initial upward wave. A breakout above this range could see a push towards 145.50, with a possible retracement to 143.85 before resuming the uptrend. A sustained break above 145.50 may extend gains towards 147.20. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80, indicating bullish momentum.

 

Conclusion

The USD/JPY uptrend remains intact, supported by both fundamental and technical factors. Traders will be watching bond market developments and central bank signals for further directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 May

AUD and NZD hit new 2025 highs against the US dollar. European indices continue to grow

By JustMarkets 

The US indices did not trade yesterday due to the bank holiday. The US stock futures jumped on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced over the holiday weekend that he would delay the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union goods, extending the deadline to July 9. The decision followed a volatile week for financial markets, driven by growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook and lingering trade uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.69%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.21% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) Index gained 0.83%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading on Monday. Frankfurt’s DAX Index added 1.7% to 23,997 points on Monday, outperforming its regional peers, helped by US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9, up from last Friday’s June 1 deadline. Germany, Europe’s largest economy and a major exporter, increasingly relies on the US as a key market for pharmaceuticals, machinery, cars, and automotive components such as engines and machine parts.

WTI crude prices fell to around $61.3 a barrel on Tuesday on fears of further OPEC+ supply increases. The group will meet later this week and is likely to finalize production targets for July, with reports suggesting a possible increase of 411,000 bpd. Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production increases in June for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, Iran on Monday refused to suspend uranium enrichment as part of a nuclear deal with the US, just days after Trump hinted that an agreement may be imminent. Iran’s president has said Iran will be fine even if the sides fail to reach an agreement. A failure of nuclear talks would mean continued sanctions against Iran, which would limit Iranian oil supplies and support oil prices.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.00%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.01%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) should carefully assess the impact of rising food prices on core inflation, which is currently nearing the 2% target, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said. Ueda reiterated the Central Bank’s willingness to raise interest rates if data bolsters confidence in the economic recovery. Despite recent rate hikes and the end of a decade-long economic stimulus program, global uncertainties such as tariff hikes in the US have forced the BOJ to revise its growth expectations downward. Ueda warned that both upside and downside risks remain, especially in fiscal years 2025 and 2026.

In Australia, traders await key Australian inflation data this week, which could play a crucial role in determining the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy trajectory. Last week, the RBA cut the rate to 3.85% as expected and signaled the possibility of further easing in response to increasing economic headwinds and slowing inflation. Markets currently estimate a 65% probability of another rate cut in July, with expectations pointing to a total of 75 basis points of easing by the first quarter of 2026.

There is a high probability that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue to cut interest rates as early as tomorrow. A 0.25% cut from 3.5% to 3.25% is expected. In the absence of shock results, the New Zealand Dollar is likely to be driven by the bank’s updated expectations. With market pricing in the possibility of a move to below 3% later this year below the 3.1% level that the RBNZ expected three months ago, risks to the New Zealand dollar could be shifted to the upside if the bank fails to meet dovish expectations. The NZD/USD pair briefly touched highs for the year on Monday, rising to levels last seen just after the US presidential election.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,802.82 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,603.07 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 24,027.65 +398.07 (+1.68%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,717.97 0 (0%)

USD Index 98.93 −0.18 (−0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.05.27

  • Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 19:20 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 May

GBP/USD in a Strong Position: Sterling Rallies on Trade News and Robust Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3569 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since February 2022, as the pound capitalised on positive trade developments and strong economic indicators.

Key factors driving GBP/USD movement

The pound’s rally stems from improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on EU imports until 9 July. Initially set to take effect on 1 June, the delay has granted diplomats additional time to pursue constructive dialogue and negotiate potential compromises.

This reprieve has boosted global risk appetite, providing further support for the pound, which also drew strength from robust domestic economic data.

UK retail sales rose by 1.2% in April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. These figures underscore the resilience of consumers despite ongoing tax hikes and trade tensions.

Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, exceeding forecasts and raising some concerns.

The base-case scenario suggests the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by August, with a further reduction possible before the end of the year.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has formed a consolidation range below the 1.3590 level. Today, the pair broke downward out of this range, signalling the likely start of a bearish wave towards 1.3360. A breach of this level could extend the downtrend towards 1.3140, with 1.3360 as the initial target. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram area and is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD previously consolidated around 1.3490 before breaking upward and nearly exhausting its bullish potential at 1.3590. Today, the pair formed a new consolidation range below 1.3590 before breaking downward again. We now anticipate a continuation of the bearish movement towards 1.3360. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line remains below 50 and is descending sharply towards 20.

 

Conclusion

The pound’s recent gains reflect a combination of improved risk sentiment and strong UK economic data. However, persistent inflation and expectations of BoE rate cuts introduce downside risks. Technically, GBP/USD shows bearish momentum, with key support levels at 1.3360 and 1.3140 in focus.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 May

Speculator Bets led lower by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real, USD Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower overall by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

The currency with a gain this week was the US Dollar Index that showed a small rise of 69 contracts on the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,705 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-17,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-10,321 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-9,731 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,938 contracts), British Pound (-3,223 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,174 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,125 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,040 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-698 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Position Roundup:

The latest data (through Tuesday May 20th) showed that all currency speculator positions pulled back, except for the US Dollar Index. However, the US Dollar Index only had a small rise and actually remains in a very small net speculator bearish position of -546 contracts as of Tuesday.

Overall, most currencies’ speculator positions remain in a bullish state against the US Dollar, including the Japanese Yen, which is not too far off its all-time record high that has was reached recently on April 29th at +179,212 contracts. The Euro is currently at approximately +75,000 contracts and has been in an overall bullish position for the past 11 weeks. The British Pound has also been in a bullish position for 13 straight weeks and is around +24,000 contracts at the moment.

The Mexican Peso has been mostly bullish since 2023 and is currently at approximately +62,000 contracts, which is above its average for 2025 (of around +34,000 weekly contracts). In comparison, the Mexican Peso contracts averaged +68,482 weekly contracts over the whole of 2024 which included a 15-week streak of over +100,000 contracts from March of 2024 to June 2024.

The Brazilian Real recently hit an all-time high and remains bullish for a 16th consecutive week at over +26,000 contracts.

The only speculator positions with negative positions right now against the US Dollar are the Swiss Franc, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and Bitcoin.

Euro Speculator Bets

The Euro speculator bets dipped this week by over 10,000 contracts for its largest pullback since early April. However, this speculator contract has been on the rise strongly since February, with gains in 10 out of the last 14 weeks. The 14-week rise has been over a total +138,000 contracts to bring the Euro position from a -64,425 contract position on February 11th to this week’s total of +74,453 contracts.

Bitcoin Speculator Contracts

The Bitcoin speculator positions have been in overall bearish territory for the last five weeks. Bitcoin contracts seem to be behaving similarly to some of the stock market contracts, which exhibit the behavior of hedging among the speculators. As the Bitcoin price has been going up, the contracts speculators have been going more bearish and vice versa. The Bitcoin price has been rising rapidly lately and reaching all-time record high prices despite the bearish speculator bets.

Exchange Rate Market

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on the week and closed under the significant 100 level, ending the week around the 99.30 level.

The Euro, the Pound, the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar, despite the fall in speculator contracts, all had positive weeks against the US Dollar in the exchange rate markets.

Last week, the Mexican Peso was up for the third time in the last four weeks, while the Brazilian Real also squeaked out a positive week.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (61 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the Swiss Franc (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.4 percent)
EuroFX (57.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (61.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.9 percent)
Bitcoin (8.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.3 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (12 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-72 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), US Dollar Index (-7 percent) and the Australian Dollar (3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.9 percent)
EuroFX (5.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-71.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.227.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.121.511.8
– Net Position:-5461,870-1,324
– Gross Longs:17,5838,3692,252
– Gross Shorts:18,1296,4993,576
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.697.812.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.28.8-13.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.155.812.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.372.55.5
– Net Position:74,453-126,83052,377
– Gross Longs:206,042423,45694,072
– Gross Shorts:131,589550,28641,695
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.138.089.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.5-12.448.8

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.129.517.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.846.812.0
– Net Position:23,993-33,8179,824
– Gross Longs:88,14457,67533,168
– Gross Shorts:64,15191,49223,344
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.449.982.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.1-7.523.8

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 167,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.027.810.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.477.26.8
– Net Position:167,330-181,02113,691
– Gross Longs:194,510102,10238,497
– Gross Shorts:27,180283,12324,806
– Long to Short Ratio:7.2 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.75.376.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.9-2.1

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.470.918.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.936.320.6
– Net Position:-23,76725,298-1,531
– Gross Longs:7,63251,87113,558
– Gross Shorts:31,39926,57315,089
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.740.872.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-20.425.4

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.581.38.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.438.911.7
– Net Position:-103,861112,982-9,121
– Gross Longs:22,629216,73622,213
– Gross Shorts:126,490103,75431,334
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.461.517.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.9-7.03.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -59,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.868.211.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.034.711.9
– Net Position:-59,07759,536-459
– Gross Longs:20,997121,27920,781
– Gross Shorts:80,07461,74321,240
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.465.447.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0-6.417.0

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.376.35.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.136.66.9
– Net Position:-23,65224,260-608
– Gross Longs:9,98146,5913,626
– Gross Shorts:33,63322,3314,234
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.161.445.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-19.119.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.229.34.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.676.03.0
– Net Position:62,532-64,0621,530
– Gross Longs:89,32340,0785,579
– Gross Shorts:26,791104,1404,049
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.641.331.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.0-14.324.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.331.412.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.670.91.3
– Net Position:26,289-36,1679,878
– Gross Longs:51,55228,73411,113
– Gross Shorts:25,26364,9011,235
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 19.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.927.676.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.38.348.1

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.46.64.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.51.33.8
– Net Position:-1,9521,692260
– Gross Longs:24,1422,1211,466
– Gross Shorts:26,0944291,206
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 14.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.7100.050.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-71.761.136.0

 

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
26 May

Trump escalated trade tensions, threatening tariffs against Apple and the EU

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.61% (for the week -2.21%) on Friday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.67% (for the week -1.70%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.93% (for the week -1.05%). The US stocks declined on Friday after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by threatening tariffs against Apple and the European Union. Apple shares fell 3%, bringing its value below $3 trillion, after Trump demanded that iPhones sold in the US be made domestically or face a 25% tariff. He also proposed a 50% tariff on all imports from the EU starting June 1 due to stalled trade talks, renewing fears of protectionist policies.

The US stock futures jumped on Monday after President Trump announced on Sunday that he would delay the imposition of 50% tariffs against the EU, extending the deadline to July 9. The move came after a turbulent week for markets, with growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade tensions weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

The Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) strengthened to 1.375 per US dollar, the highest since October 2024, as bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will be less accommodative added to the impact of a weaker dollar. Canadian retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, following up on a 0.8% increase in March, signaling strength in Canadian consumers.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) rose to 19.3 per US dollar in May 2025, the strongest since last October, as budget concerns and tariff uncertainty in the US weakened the dollar. The dollar declined against major currencies after the US House of Representatives approved a bill that could increase the federal budget deficit by more than $3 trillion and days after Moody’s downgraded their debt rating due to unsustainable debt. On the domestic front, the latest data showed that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.2% in the first quarter. While this avoided a technical recession, it signaled underlying weakness in the Mexican economy and a more urgent need for Banxico to cut interest rates.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.54% (week ended -0.32%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.65% (week ended -1.52%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 1.18% (week ended +0.22%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.24% (week ended +0.38%). European stocks fell sharply on Friday after US President Trump said he recommends imposing tariffs of 50% on goods from the European Union, which could deprive demand from a key source of European exports. Shares of Mercedes Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Hermes and Inditex fell between 2% and 4.5%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of retaliatory measures from the European Commission put pressure on banks, with Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, and BBVA down 3% each. On the data side, German Q1 GDP growth was revised upward to 0.4% from 0.2%, helped by strong manufacturing numbers and a surge in exports in March, suggesting the economy is resilient amid trade tensions.

WTI crude prices rose by 0.5% to settle at $61.50 a barrel on Friday, but still recorded their first weekly loss in three weeks, pressured by expectations of another OPEC+ production increase. The group is expected to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in July, with discussions next week likely to confirm the move. Market sentiment deteriorated further on reports that OPEC+ may roll back the remainder of its voluntary 2.2 million bpd production cut by October.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.92%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.21%.

Japan’s Index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised upward to 108.1 for March 2025 from a preliminary estimate of 107.7. However, the latest reading remains slightly below February’s 108.2 and is the lowest since last December due to deteriorating consumer sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around USD 0.602 on Monday, extending Friday’s 1.5% gain and nearing its highest level in seven months. The rally was largely driven by a broad-based decline in the US dollar, which weakened amid renewed trade tensions and growing concerns about the US fiscal outlook. However, tensions eased slightly when Trump announced on Sunday that he would extend the deadline for tariff talks with the EU until July 9. Domestically, traders are now awaiting Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, where the Central Bank is expected to cut the cash rate by 25 bps as inflation remains low. Markets currently expect rates to fall to around 3% or 2.75% by the end of the year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,802.82 −39.19 (−0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,603.07 −256.02 (−0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 23,629.58 −369.59 (−1.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,717.97 −21.29 (−0.24%)

USD Index 99.10 −0.86 (−0.86%)

News feed for: 2025.05.26

  • Hong Kong Trade Balance (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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