InvestMacro

The US labor market remains stable. Oil rose to $64.6 per barrel

The US stocks rose on Friday. This was helped by a stronger-than-expected employment report and renewed optimism about trade negotiations between the US and China. At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.05% (+1.30% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.30% (+1.76% for the week). The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.99% (+2.31% for the week). The labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding forecasts and easing concerns about an imminent slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, Trump offered a glimmer of optimism on the trade front, announcing that US-China talks would resume next week in London. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump called on Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates by a full percentage point, calling it “rocket fuel” for the economy.

In May, only 8,800 jobs were added to the Canadian labor market, and the unemployment rate rose to 7%, the highest since late 2021, indicating that manufacturers are beginning to feel the impact of US tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles. This tension in the labor market contrasts sharply with earlier signs of resilience, such as 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter and a steady increase in retail sales, which prompted the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark rate at 2.75% with no signs of an imminent cut.

European stock markets were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (+1.84% for the week), while the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.19% (+1.17% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.31% (+0.97% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.30% (+0.75% for the week). In Europe, the ECB cut rates as expected, but President Christine Lagarde signaled that the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, disappointing data on exports and industrial production from Germany weighed on sentiment.

WTI oil prices rose 1.9% to $64.60 per barrel on Friday, rising more than 6.5% for the first time in three weeks. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism after the resumption of trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which raised hopes for stronger global demand. Sentiment also improved after news that Canada had also entered into direct trade talks with the US.

Asian markets rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 3.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.96% over the past week.

China’s trade surplus rose sharply to US$103.22 billion in May 2025, compared to US$81.74 billion in the same period a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of US$101.3 billion, as exports rose and imports fell more than expected. Exports rose 4.8% year-on-year to US$316.1 billion, slightly below market expectations of 5.0%, and down sharply from the 8. Meanwhile, imports fell to 3.4% y/y to US$212.9 billion, which was stronger than the expected decline of 0.9%, following a decline in April. Meanwhile, imports fell 3.4% y/y to US$212.9 billion, which was stronger than the expected decline of 0.9%, following a 0.2% decline in April.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.651 on Monday, continuing its rise from the previous week amid optimism about trade talks between the US and China. The talks come at a critical time for both economies, as China struggles with deflation and ongoing trade uncertainty continues to dampen business and consumer confidence in the US. In Australia, a leading economist called on the central bank to make a bold 35 basis point interest rate cut at its July meeting, exceeding the standard 25 basis point cut made in February and May. This recommendation came amid sluggish economic growth and low consumer spending, which are hindering a more robust recovery in the private sector.

Japan’s service sector business activity index rose to 44.4 in May 2025 from 42.6 in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 43.9. Despite the increase, the overall decline has continued for the fifth consecutive month. The corporate trends index also declined, driven by weakness in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the economic outlook index rose to 44.8 in May from 42.7 in April, supported by expectations of summer bonuses and wage increases.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,000.36 +61.06 (+1.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,762.87 +443.13 (+1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 24,304.46 −19.12 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,837.91 +26.87 (+0.30%)

USD index 99.14 −0.05 (−0.05%)

News feed for: 2025.06.09

Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Jun

US Dollar faces pivotal week: politics and economic data in focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD opened the week steady, trading near 1.1418, as markets brace for a series of key economic reports and political developments.

Markets eye trade talks and macro indicators

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the US-China trade meeting, set to take place in London today, following President Donald Trump’s announcement last week. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations are helping stabilise the market mood.

On the economic front, a heavy data calendar lies ahead. Markets are closely watching the release of several US macroeconomic indicators:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday
Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday

These reports are expected to provide clearer insights into the effects of tariffs on inflation and the overall direction of the US economy.

Last Friday, the US dollar gained strength following an upbeat employment report for May, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. However, the broader picture remains mixed, with recent readings on private employment, unemployment claims, and the services PMI pointing to ongoing economic fragility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has reached the growth wave target at 1.1494. A correction phase is currently unfolding, with the first target at 1.1365. After touching this level, a rebound to 1.1438 is possible. This could be followed by a new downward wave towards 1.1275, with a longer-term prospect of a decline to 1.1210. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downwards, indicating a shift towards bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed the first downward wave, reaching a local target at 1.1372. A corrective bounce to 1.1438 (a test from below) is now on the radar. This move will determine whether EUR/USD resumes its upward correction or extends its decline.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is entering a critical week, with US economic data and trade talks in the spotlight. A corrective move to 1.1438 appears likely in the short term, but further downside towards 1.1365, 1.1275, and 1.1210 remains on the table depending on data outcomes and broader risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest a shift in momentum, with consolidation and correction likely before the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jun

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.

The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.

Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning

Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:

– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)

Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	28.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.2	13.2
– Net Position:	617	968	-1,585
– Gross Longs:	15,748	8,021	2,123
– Gross Shorts:	15,131	7,053	3,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	96.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.0	-7.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	73.7	5.8
– Net Position:	82,764	-138,285	55,521
– Gross Longs:	202,786	437,677	100,625
– Gross Shorts:	120,022	575,962	45,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	34.1	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.9	5.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	31.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.9	9.9
– Net Position:	35,215	-48,965	13,750
– Gross Longs:	103,672	74,588	36,963
– Gross Shorts:	68,457	123,553	23,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	43.6	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-9.7	18.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	27.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	75.3	5.5
– Net Position:	151,149	-175,508	24,359
– Gross Longs:	189,514	100,151	44,497
– Gross Shorts:	38,365	275,659	20,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	6.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.4	2.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	63.8	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	32.0	18.7
– Net Position:	-26,066	25,884	182
– Gross Longs:	7,145	51,879	15,409
– Gross Shorts:	33,211	25,995	15,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	41.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-1.4	6.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-108,446	110,625	-2,179
– Gross Longs:	18,667	214,704	23,967
– Gross Shorts:	127,113	104,079	26,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.9	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	64.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	34.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-63,155	61,195	1,960
– Gross Longs:	23,969	130,735	23,307
– Gross Shorts:	87,124	69,540	21,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.4	-5.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	41.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-23,674	23,601	73
– Gross Longs:	9,531	51,514	4,419
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	27,913	4,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	60.7	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.3	8.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	32.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	72.4	2.1
– Net Position:	64,449	-66,946	2,497
– Gross Longs:	93,401	55,198	6,108
– Gross Shorts:	28,952	122,144	3,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	39.8	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.6	7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	70.6	1.0
– Net Position:	30,793	-33,919	3,126
– Gross Longs:	54,954	26,403	4,014
– Gross Shorts:	24,161	60,322	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	14.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	8.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.7	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,949	363
– Gross Longs:	24,084	2,407	1,341
– Gross Shorts:	26,396	458	978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	29.8	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Silver, Ultra 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,280 net contracts this week with a gain of 14,712 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225* speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35 points at last data. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts with a recent weekly change of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last provided data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level now resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 20 points this week while the overall speculator position was 60,770 net contracts this week with a boost by 7,758 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position has cooled off a bit but does come in at number four in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -7 points this week. The overall speculator position was 151,149 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -12,863 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level now sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a gain of 18 points this week.

The speculator position was 2,201 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,337 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56 points this week. The overall speculator position was -371,588 net contracts this week with a reduction by -73,325 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 points this week while the speculator position was -2,396,536 net contracts this week with a change of -63,299 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -54,519 net contracts this week with a decrease by -5,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain by 3 points this week. The speculator position was 617 net contracts this week with an advance by 703 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,721 contracts) with Silver (7,758 contracts), Copper (1,513 contracts) and Palladium (233 contracts) having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,294 contracts) and with Steel (-1,279 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets rose this week for the third straight this week after having fallen in the previous four weeks. Currently, the gold speculator bets are up to their highest level in the past seven weeks. Silver bets meanwhile, also rose for the third straight week and they are now at their highest level in the past ten weeks, dating back to March 25th.

Metals Price Performance in last 5-Days:

– Platinum was the big riser with a 10% gain.
– Silver was up by 9%.
– Palladium over 7.5%.
– Copper rose by 3%.
– Gold was up by 0.5%.
– Steel was down by 9% in the last 5 days.
– All of the metals markets have been up by at least 5% or more in the last 90 days, with platinum & gold up by approximately 20% and steel up by almost 20%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Steel (68 percent) and Platinum (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (50 percent) and Gold (52 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.4 percent)
Silver (92.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.1 percent)
Copper (55.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (54.3 percent)
Platinum (63.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (75.9 percent)
Palladium (49.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (48.0 percent)
Steel (67.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (34 percent) and Palladium (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-10.6 percent)
Silver (20.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (11.5 percent)
Copper (-0.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.7 percent)
Palladium (26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (18.6 percent)
Steel (-12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.4	17.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.1	4.6
– Net Position:	187,905	-220,826	32,921
– Gross Longs:	246,982	70,905	51,996
– Gross Shorts:	59,077	291,731	19,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	42.8	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.7	23.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	20.0	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	68.5	7.1
– Net Position:	60,770	-79,141	18,371
– Gross Longs:	81,981	32,689	29,969
– Gross Shorts:	21,211	111,830	11,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-16.3	-6.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	30.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	43.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,094	-27,013	2,919
– Gross Longs:	71,249	64,639	14,562
– Gross Shorts:	47,155	91,652	11,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	47.2	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.9	24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	17.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	41.5	7.5
– Net Position:	20,049	-23,233	3,184
– Gross Longs:	59,019	16,293	10,349
– Gross Shorts:	38,970	39,526	7,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	40.8	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-26.0	-32.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	46.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	11.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-7,293	6,502	791
– Gross Longs:	6,570	8,498	2,336
– Gross Shorts:	13,863	1,996	1,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	46.9	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-26.0	-6.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	69.9	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,544	1,434	110
– Gross Longs:	7,698	22,265	274
– Gross Shorts:	9,242	20,831	164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	33.1	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	12.1	23.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

08 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (124,899 contracts) with the Fed Funds (119,342 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (64,348 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5,029 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-73,325 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-69,131 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-63,299 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-48,483 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-24,022 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price Performance Bonds last 5-Days:

– Fed funds were virtually unchanged.

– The 3-month secured overnight financing rate was down by -0.5%.

– The 2-year bond was down by -0.5%.

– The 5-year bond was down by approximately -0.90%.

– The longer bonds, the 10-year and the U.S. Treasury bonds were down by approximately -1%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (87 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (63 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the Fed Funds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (27.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (36.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (87.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (63.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (80.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.8 percent)

10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-56 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-26 percent) and the Fed Funds (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-24.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-47.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-55.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-41.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (14.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (37.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-26.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-29.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -144,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 119,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	69.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	61.1	1.8
– Net Position:	-144,721	133,095	11,626
– Gross Longs:	199,894	1,110,998	40,360
– Gross Shorts:	344,615	977,903	28,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	66.2	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	23.6	3.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -930,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 124,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,054,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	62.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-930,067	910,329	19,738
– Gross Longs:	1,318,995	7,061,972	55,811
– Gross Shorts:	2,249,062	6,151,643	36,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	86.7	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	25.3	8.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -69,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	59.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	57.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-20,851	24,789	-3,938
– Gross Longs:	192,954	671,822	1,242
– Gross Shorts:	213,805	647,033	5,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	37.6	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-13.7	-8.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,143,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,119,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	77.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	50.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,143,925	1,024,516	119,409
– Gross Longs:	574,694	2,957,205	233,429
– Gross Shorts:	1,718,619	1,932,689	114,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	74.0	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-13.2	0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,396,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -63,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,333,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	51.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,396,536	2,224,020	172,516
– Gross Longs:	480,671	5,740,780	412,729
– Gross Shorts:	2,877,207	3,516,760	240,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	11.7	-4.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -705,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 64,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -769,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	78.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-705,256	633,320	71,936
– Gross Longs:	509,034	3,739,243	415,931
– Gross Shorts:	1,214,290	3,105,923	343,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	56.3	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-19.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -371,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -73,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	60.6	12.2
– Net Position:	-371,588	444,200	-72,612
– Gross Longs:	221,697	1,838,381	207,577
– Gross Shorts:	593,285	1,394,181	280,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.8	72.3	-34.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,373 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -48,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	75.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	74.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-102,373	14,702	87,671
– Gross Longs:	190,607	1,322,293	228,215
– Gross Shorts:	292,980	1,307,591	140,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	43.2	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.5	7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	70.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-228,443	230,330	-1,887
– Gross Longs:	125,006	1,564,328	177,487
– Gross Shorts:	353,449	1,333,998	179,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	30.4	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	5.4	-36.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,873 contracts) with Live Cattle (2,639 contracts) and Wheat (1,681 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-60,726 contracts), Sugar (-23,347 contracts), Soybean Oil (-19,146 contracts), Soybeans (-12,614 contracts), Coffee (-5,498 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,366 contracts), Cotton (-2,876 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,642 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The Soft Commodities Price Performance last 5 days:

– Coffee was the leader with a gain of over 5%.

– Live cattle and wheat rose by over 3%.

– Cotton rose by over 2%.

– Lean hogs, soybeans, and soybean oil all increased by 1% or more.

– On the downside, soybean meal and sugar fell by over 1 percent, while cocoa fell by 4%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (80 percent) and Lean Hogs (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (66 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Sugar (9 percent), Wheat (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.4 percent)
Sugar (9.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.8 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (65.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (69.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (65.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (75.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (18.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (29.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.5 percent)
Wheat (15.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.0 percent)

Lean Hogs & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (27 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent) and Cocoa (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Corn (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-12 percent), Soybean Oil (-10 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-41.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-34.6 percent)
Sugar (-11.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-10.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-10.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.4 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cocoa (4.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -60,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	47.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	40.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-81,059	104,725	-23,666
– Gross Longs:	317,410	788,104	143,729
– Gross Shorts:	398,469	683,379	167,395
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	73.1	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.0	40.3	40.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	50.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	49.5	7.9
– Net Position:	-3,844	10,707	-6,863
– Gross Longs:	214,220	445,078	62,137
– Gross Shorts:	218,064	434,371	69,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	93.5	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.7	-8.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	42.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	65.4	4.3
– Net Position:	35,017	-37,065	2,048
– Gross Longs:	47,810	66,385	8,810
– Gross Shorts:	12,793	103,450	6,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	41.6	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.0	-3.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	49.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	54.4	7.3
– Net Position:	59,947	-44,377	-15,570
– Gross Longs:	191,916	432,650	48,642
– Gross Shorts:	131,969	477,027	64,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	32.1	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-3.5	22.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	48.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	56.6	4.4
– Net Position:	41,939	-47,789	5,850
– Gross Longs:	131,752	289,547	31,814
– Gross Shorts:	89,813	337,336	25,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	37.3	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.8	-3.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	42.9	5.4
– Net Position:	-54,519	30,447	24,072
– Gross Longs:	124,108	290,014	56,843
– Gross Shorts:	178,627	259,567	32,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	89.8	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	6.7	36.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	28.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	48.7	12.8
– Net Position:	103,283	-83,165	-20,118
– Gross Longs:	202,063	116,851	32,540
– Gross Shorts:	98,780	200,016	52,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	21.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.8	1.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	28.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	46.6	8.3
– Net Position:	66,576	-62,402	-4,174
– Gross Longs:	139,541	99,654	24,579
– Gross Shorts:	72,965	162,056	28,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	17.5	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-27.9	-15.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	48.8	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	34.8	5.6
– Net Position:	-32,240	33,480	-1,240
– Gross Longs:	63,272	116,837	12,169
– Gross Shorts:	95,512	83,357	13,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	83.9	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.4	9.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	35.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	61.4	5.6
– Net Position:	19,470	-25,602	6,132
– Gross Longs:	31,567	35,938	11,764
– Gross Shorts:	12,097	61,540	5,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	67.8	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-6.8	30.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -97,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	38.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	18.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-97,074	95,778	1,296
– Gross Longs:	112,261	182,990	36,752
– Gross Shorts:	209,335	87,212	35,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	87.2	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.9	-10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (2,367 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,337 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-16,445 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-7,588 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,362 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (-679 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last updated data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Stock Markets Price Performance:

Last 5 days:
– Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets: gains over 2%
– NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and EAFE: gains over 1%
– VIX: down by over 3%

Last 30 days:
– All markets have gained except VIX
– VIX: down over 30%

Last 90 days:
– Emerging markets, EAFE, and Nikkei 225 are leading the markets higher
– VIX: up approximately 16% while US Markets around breakeven

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (92 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (88 percent) and DowJones-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 Yen (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (65.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (92.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (17.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-35.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-3.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	42.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	41.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-3,398	3,419	-21
– Gross Longs:	81,723	120,140	25,406
– Gross Shorts:	85,121	116,721	25,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	13.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	0.3	-14.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-69,415	9,046	60,369
– Gross Longs:	253,198	1,567,386	245,466
– Gross Shorts:	322,613	1,558,340	185,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	36.2	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	57.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.0	14.9
– Net Position:	10,977	-9,577	-1,400
– Gross Longs:	17,459	47,552	10,908
– Gross Shorts:	6,482	57,129	12,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	24.3	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.2	-1.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	57.7	15.3
– Net Position:	14,670	-9,454	-5,216
– Gross Longs:	82,789	150,507	37,275
– Gross Shorts:	68,119	159,961	42,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	29.8	-9.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	71.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	67.8	6.5
– Net Position:	-12,045	16,193	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	79,926	318,071	24,826
– Gross Shorts:	91,971	301,878	28,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	33.9	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	12.9	-44.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	88.3	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	90.1	1.0
– Net Position:	2,201	-8,388	6,187
– Gross Longs:	44,626	427,946	11,119
– Gross Shorts:	42,425	436,334	4,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	16.2	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.3	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

06 Jun

Week Ahead: USDJPY set for volatile price swings?

By ForexTime

Yen expected to be the most volatile in G10 space vs USD
Ongoing US-Japan talks, geopolitics & data could rock JPY
Over the past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 1.7%
Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72% of trading within 141.26 – 146.52 over 1-week period
Technical level: 142.30 & 145.00

Even as we await the US jobs report later today (Friday, 6 June), investors are keenly aware of the string of key data points over the coming week.

The Japanese Yen is expected to be the most volatile G10 currency versus the USD over the next one-week.

This could be based on ongoing US-Japan trade talks, geopolitical risk and high-impact economic data.

And these key data releases from major economies could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:

Sunday, 7th June

CNH: China forex reserves
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
JPY: BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida speech
Fed’s pre-decision communications blackout

Monday, 9th June

CN50: China trade, CPI, PPI
JPY: Japan GDP (final), current account
TWN: Taiwan trade
RUS2000: US wholesale inventories

Tuesday, 10th June

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
JPY: Japan money stock
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment

Wednesday, 11th June

JPY: Japan PPI
USDInd: US May CPI, federal budget balance
GBP: UK government spending review 2025

Thursday, 12th June

UK100: Monthly GDP, UK industrial production, trade
US500: US PPI, jobless claims

Friday, 13th June

EU50: Eurozone industrial production
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan tertiary industry, industrial production (final)
NZD: New Zealand Business manufacturing PMI
USDInd: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

At the time of writing, the Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the USD month-to-date, barely moving against the greenback.

Indeed, prices have been trapped within a range on the daily timeframe with support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00.

A breakout could be on the horizon, but this may require a fresh fundamental catalyst.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Ongoing US-Japan trade talks

Japan and the United States have been engaged in trade talks since mid-April following Trump’s liberation day tariffs.

The country has been hit with a 25% tariff on autos and parts, a 10% universal tariff that will rise to 24% in early July, in addition to Trump’s 50% tariff on steel and aluminum.

This week, Japan’s top trade negotiator met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Any positive news or signs that a deal could be reached may boost sentiment toward the Japanese economy, supporting the Yen.
Should talks drag on with no sign of a deal being reached, this fuel concerns over Japan’s economic outlook – hitting the Yen as a result.

2) BoJ deputy governor speech + Japan economic data

Over the weekend, a speech by the BoJ deputy governor may provide some clues about future policy moves.

To be clear, the incoming data from Japan will be the most finalized estimates, so this market reaction may be muted. However, any major upside or downside surprises could spark some action and influence BoJ rate expectations.

Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point BoJ hike by the end of 2025.

3) US May CPI report

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) that will be published on Wednesday, 11th June, could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (May 2024 vs. May 2025) is expected to rise 2.5% from 2.3%.
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.
CPI month-on-month (May 2025 vs April 2025) to remain unchanged at 0.2%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDJPY higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecasts, this may drag the USDJPY lower.

Traders are currently pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the odds of a third one at 20%.

4) Technical forces

The USDJPY remains in a range on the daily charts with key support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00. Prices are trading below the 200, 100 and 50-day SMA.

A breakout and daily close above the 50-day SMA at 144.60, may open a path toward 145.00 and 146.52– the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.
Sustained weakness below 143.00 could trigger a selloff back toward support at 142.30 and 141.26 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 72% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 141.26 – 146.52 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jun

A public feud between Trump and Musk has begun in the US. RBI shifted its policy from accommodative to neutral

By JustMarkets

Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as investors grappled with the public feud between President Trump and Elon Musk, renewed trade uncertainty between the US and China, and growing signs of weakness in the labor market. At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) index fell by 0.25%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.53%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology index closed down 0.80%. Tesla shares fell by 14.3% after Trump criticized Musk for his disagreement with a major tax and spending bill, suggesting that he could revoke government contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies. Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000 last week, the highest in eight months, heightening concerns about a slowdown in labor market growth. Economists expect the May employment report to show an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month and will keep the three-month average at 162,000.

Stock markets in Europe traded without a single trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.73%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.11% on Thursday. European stocks rose on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year. The ECB lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points and revised its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward. Although the rate cut was largely anticipated, the sharper-than-expected downward revision of the inflation forecast for 2026 took some market participants by surprise. ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that the inflation outlook remains more uncertain than usual.

WTI crude oil prices traded around $63 per barrel on Friday, targeting a weekly gain of 4% — the first in three years — thanks to optimism about peak seasonal demand despite lingering concerns about oversupply. However, the bullish momentum weakened after Saudi Arabia signaled the need for a significant increase in production, calling on OPEC+ to raise output by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly in September to meet summer demand.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) held steady at around $36 per ounce on Friday, trading at their highest levels since February 2012, as weak US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s “dovish” outlook continued to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets. Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have intensified after a series of disappointing indicators. The latest data showed an increase in jobless claims, a decline in private sector employment, and an unexpected slowdown in service sector activity, all pointing to signs of a softening labor market. Investors will now turn their attention to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report for further clarity on the economic outlook.

Asian markets traded without a clear trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.03% on Thursday.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar held onto its recent gains, reaching $0.604 and remaining close to an eight-month high, thanks to renewed optimism about easing trade tensions, which reduced risks for the export-dependent currency. A telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which the two leaders agreed to resume trade talks, contributed to the positive sentiment. Domestically, markets expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady in July, while the probability of a rate cut in August is around 70%, potentially the last cut in this easing cycle.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.24% in May 2025, a four-month high, from 3.12% in April. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose to 3.33% from 3.14%, the highest since October 2023.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut its key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50% at its May meeting — more than the market had expected, which was anticipating a 25-basis-point cut — and shifted its policy stance from accommodative to neutral. As a result of Friday’s meeting, the total rate cut since February amounted to 100 basis points, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since August 2022. This decision was driven by lower inflation and ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade tensions.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,939.30 −31.51 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,319.74 −108.00 (−0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 24,323.58 +47.10 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,811.04 +9.75 (+0.11%)

USD index 98.73 −0.06 (−0.06%)

News feed for: 2025.06.06

German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);ʼ
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.