InvestMacro

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.54%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed higher by 0.75%. The US stocks rose on Thursday as strong earnings and economic data helped major indices reach new record highs. The US retail sales rose by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations and underscoring the resilience of consumer spending despite ongoing tariff issues. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, bolstering confidence in the strength of the labor market. Shares of United Airlines and PepsiCo rose by 3.1% and 7.4%, respectively. TSMC shares added 3.9% on record profits, boosting chipmakers including Nvidia (+0.9%) and Marvell (+1.6%) and lifting sentiment across the chip sector ahead of Netflix’s quarterly results, due to be released after the close.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.37 per US dollar, its lowest level since early June. The broad-based recovery of the US dollar, driven by rising US retail sales, unexpectedly low weekly jobless claims, and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates longer, put pressure on the CAD.

On Friday, Bitcoin rose above $120,000, just shy of the record high reached earlier in the week, as markets reacted to the passage of the first major digital assets law in the US. The House of Representatives approved the bill on Thursday after the Senate voted in favor of it earlier, and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it later in the day. The legislation establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins — digital tokens backed by assets such as the US dollar — marking a key milestone after years of lobbying by the industry. Over the past year, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% thanks to optimism about regulatory progress and growing institutional demand through ETFs.

European stock markets were mostly higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.29%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.78%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.52%.

European stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, erasing the losses of the last three sessions, as markets assessed a number of key corporate indicators and revised their outlook for European trade. Consumer price inflation in the Eurozone in June 2025 was confirmed at 2% year-on-year, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with the European Central Bank’s official target. Inflation in the services sector accelerated to 3.3% from May’s three-year low of 3.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, remained at 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.7% to $67.5 per barrel on Thursday, ending a three-day losing streak as low inventories and renewed tensions in the Middle East supported the market. According to the latest data, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding previous expectations and signaling a reduction in supply. Meanwhile, drone attacks on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan led to a shutdown and reduction in production of 150,000 barrels per day. Ongoing instability in the region, including recent Israeli strikes in Syria, also heightened market concerns.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) in the US are holding at $3.56/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, due to increased demand for cooling in hotter-than-usual weather. Power generators are burning more gas to meet air conditioning needs. In addition, projections show that high temperatures will continue in the lower 48 states until early August, with the peak of the summer heat expected next week.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.90%.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly higher than the 4.4% growth in the previous period. The growth was driven by an acceleration in agricultural activity, which grew by 2% compared to 0.6% growth. Growth in the services sector also accelerated to 5.3% from 5%, supported by positive performance across all subsectors.

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.53%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.32%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed higher by 0.25%. The US stocks rebounded from session lows and closed higher on Wednesday after President Trump said he had no plans to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, easing concerns sparked by earlier reports that he was considering taking action. Markets initially fell on reports that Trump was considering Powell’s resignation, exacerbating investor concerns about persistent inflation and ongoing trade tensions. The June Producer Price Index, which remained unchanged, brought some relief after Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected and showed the fastest annual inflation since February. On the corporate front, Bank of America fell by 0.3% after earnings came in below expectations, while Morgan Stanley declined by 1.3% despite solid profits. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs added 1% after beating earnings expectations, and Johnson & Johnson jumped 6.2% after strong results and an upgrade to its full-year expectations.

On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered around $118,000, moving sideways after retreating from record highs earlier in the week as investors assessed developments on key digital assets regulation bills. The House of Representatives approved rules for debating cryptocurrency legislation late Wednesday, the result of intense negotiations and direct intervention by President Trump. While the procedural breakthrough signaled progress, new opposition from moderate Republicans and key committee members over the changes raised doubts about the bill’s ultimate passage. The continuing uncertainty affected sentiment as markets await a clearer direction for regulation.

European stock markets were mostly lower yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.57%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.08%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.13%. The Frankfurt DAX Index has been falling for five consecutive trading sessions. The index is affected by ongoing trade uncertainty and weak corporate earnings of European companies. While investors were hoping for a more favorable tariff agreement than previously planned, President Trump again threatened to extend tariffs to pharmaceutical products and semiconductors, possibly as early as August 1, when his “retaliatory” tax policy expires. Volkswagen fell by 3.7%, Porsche AG lost 3%, and Mercedes-Benz Group fell by 1.9%.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $66.3 per barrel on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of decline. The decline was driven by renewed concerns about potential oversupply and the impact of US trade tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand. The EIA’s weekly report showed a decline in total US crude oil inventories of 3.86 million barrels, but inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub rose to their highest level since June. Traders remain concerned about the risk of oversupply as OPEC+ accelerates the return of previously cut production volumes and production in North and South America continues to grow.

On Wednesday, silver prices rose to $38 per ounce, recovering from a two-day decline as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated from recent highs. The pullback came as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and monitored changes in trade dynamics. On Tuesday, silver came under pressure after US consumer inflation data caused traders to abandon expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.

Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.79%.

The Bank of Indonesia lowered its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at its July 2025 policy meeting, in line with market expectations. This move reflects the inflation projections for 2025–2026, which remains within the target range of 2.5±1%. Annual inflation rose to 1.87% in June from 1.60% in May, slightly above expectations but still within the target range. Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar rose by 0.34% in June and remains stable in mid-July, mainly due to stabilization measures by the Bank of Indonesia. Economic growth in 2025 is expected at between 4.6% and 5.4%.

The Australian dollar weakened to below $0.650 on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s gains, as weaker-than-expected employment data reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to a more than three-year high of 4.3% in June, ending a five-month hold and exceeding projections of 4.1%, while employment increased by only 2,000 people, significantly below the expected increase of 20,000. Weak labor market data added to evidence of an economic slowdown, strengthening the case for policy easing. Markets now see an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Central Bank’s August meeting.

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.98%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.40%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.13%. Investors digested June inflation data, the latest earnings reports from major banks, and news that Nvidia may resume chip sales to China. The Consumer Price Index for June rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, heightening concerns that President Trump’s planned 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico could push inflation higher. The CPI report raised concerns that tariff-driven price pressures are beginning to emerge. Shares of Wells Fargo (-5.5%) and JPMorgan (-0.9%) fell after mixed results, while Citigroup bucked the trend, rising 3.8% on strong results and a share buyback plan. As earnings season gathers momentum, Wall Street remains cautious as S&P 500 earnings growth expectations remain low and uncertainty about future Fed policy grows amid trade and inflation risks.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per US dollar as investors balanced rising domestic inflation with the recent softness of the US currency. Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index, the preferred measure of underlying inflation, remained unchanged at 3% in June, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain its hawkish stance and keep its overnight rate at 2.75% rather than prematurely easing.

European stock markets were mostly down yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.42%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.54%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 1.15%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.66%. On Tuesday, European stock indices lost their early gains and closed mostly lower as markets continued to assess how potential US tariffs could affect European businesses. US President Trump had earlier announced the introduction of 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union from August 1, prompting the bloc to continue its search for a trade agreement. EU officials recently said that negotiations on an agreement to avoid tariffs are continuing, but in any case, a retaliatory package is being prepared that could impose tariffs on US goods worth up to €72 billion.

WTI oil prices fell below $67 a barrel on Tuesday after dropping 2.2% in the previous session, as traders became skeptical that President Trump’s new campaign to pressure Russia would significantly disrupt its oil exports. Trump increased military aid to Ukraine and warned of imposing 100% tariffs if a peace agreement was not reached within 50 days, which was perceived as a threat to impose secondary sanctions on major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and China. However, markets viewed the 50-day delay as a reduction in the risk of immediate supply disruptions. Nevertheless, China provided some support, with refinery activity reaching 15.2 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since September 2023.

Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.40%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.60%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.70%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar traded around $0.594, close to its lowest level in more than three weeks, due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened after consumer inflation in the US rose in June, prompting traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. The kiwi also reacted to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The Australian dollar strengthened to $0.653 on Wednesday, ending a three-day losing streak, as investors turned their attention to Thursday’s labor market data, which could provide new insight into the near-term policy outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently taken a cautious stance, focusing on data, citing a more balanced inflation outlook and continued labor market strength. A strong jobs report could cast doubt on the 80% probability of a rate cut at next month’s meeting, as predicted by the market. Markets currently expect an increase of 20,000 jobs in June and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes key procurement commitments that will help the country avoid tougher tariffs. Indonesian goods will now be subject to tariffs of 19%, compared to the 32% he had previously threatened.

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.20%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.33%.

The US stocks closed slightly higher on Monday as investors weighed President Trump’s new tariff threats against optimism about upcoming earnings and inflation data. Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico starting August 1, but hopes for continued negotiations helped ease investor concerns. Markets are also preparing for a wave of second-quarter earnings reports, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo set to report on Tuesday. At the same time, investors are awaiting the June Consumer Price Index report, which may show how previously imposed tariffs are affecting inflation and shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.

On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) jumped more than 2% and exceeded the $122,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and strengthening its position among the largest assets by market capitalization, which is now estimated at $2.4 trillion. The latest rally is fueled by growing institutional demand, especially through spot exchange-traded funds, as well as favorable US political prospects and favorable global macroeconomic conditions. The bullish momentum is reinforced by expectations of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, as markets increasingly lean toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Trump continues to exert political pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding lower borrowing costs in an attempt to stimulate growth.

European stock markets traded without a clear trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.19% (up +0.33% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.64%. The Frankfurt DAX Index continued to decline after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU, which will take effect on August 1. Nevertheless, markets remained hopeful that the measures would be softened as part of ongoing trade discussions. At today’s meeting, EU ministers agreed to prioritize negotiations with Washington in an attempt to avoid tariffs. If the negotiations fail, the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs worth €72 billion. The European automotive sector was hit hard: VW, BMW, and Mercedes lost up to 2.5%, while Volvo fell by 5% after warning of profitability issues related to tariffs on electric vehicles. On a brighter note, shares in defense companies such as Thales rose after Macron approved a €6.5 billion military spending plan.

WTI oil prices fell by 2.1% to below $67 per barrel on Monday after President Trump failed to announce new sanctions against Russian oil, disappointing markets that had expected tougher action. Although Trump warned of the possible imposition of 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if a truce was not reached within 50 days, the lack of immediate action put pressure on prices. Hedge funds responded by reducing their bullish positions at the fastest pace since February. However, Chinese trade data provided some support: crude oil imports rose and purchases of Iranian oil increased in June, indicating steady demand in the near term.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) in the US rose to a weekly high, exceeding $3.4 per million barrels, thanks to growth in LNG exports and expectations of hotter-than-usual weather, which is expected to increase demand for gas at the end of July. Gas flows at the eight major LNG export plants in the US averaged 15.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, as several facilities resumed operations after maintenance and downtime.

Asian markets were mostly higher on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.26%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.11%.

Hong Kong stocks fell at the opening of the trading session, interrupting a three-session winning streak. Traders reacted to China’s second-quarter GDP data, which showed economic growth of 5.2% y/y, the slowest pace in three quarters, although slightly above the expectations of 5.1%. Meanwhile, China’s statistics agency noted continuing external uncertainty and warned that domestic demand remains weak.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.654 on Tuesday after a notable decline in the previous session. Domestically, sentiment improved thanks to positive economic data: the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.6% month-on-month to 93.1 in July 2025. This was the third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a modest but encouraging improvement in consumer sentiment.