InvestMacro

Stock indices are once again hitting all-time highs. Natural gas prices fell by more than 6%

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.14%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.50%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes closed at record highs on Monday as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed lingering trade tensions. Growth in mega-large tech companies, such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, fueled the rally. Alphabet rose by 2.7% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. Verizon shares also rose by 4% after the release of a strong quarterly report, fueling hopes for continued earnings growth. So far, more than 85% of companies reporting on the S&P 500 have beaten expectations, with the large technology industry expected to provide most of the projected 6–7% earnings growth this quarter. Investor sentiment remained upbeat despite uncertainty over tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick again called August 1 a “hard deadline” for compliance, although negotiations could continue beyond that.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.31%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.30%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.23%. European stocks posted modest losses on Monday as markets continued to assess the outlook for EU trade. The US authorities maintained their threat to impose 30% tariffs on EU exports, while the EU Commission continued to negotiate lower duty rates until August 1. At the same time, the EU also signaled that aggressive retaliatory measures would follow in the absence of an agreement, risking escalation of tensions and price hikes in the bloc. Luxury giants led the session’s losses, with Hermes, LVMH, and Ferrari falling 0.5–1.6%. Meanwhile, Stellantis lost 1.5% despite reporting a loss of more than €2.3 billion in the first half of the year due to restructuring costs and US tariffs. In addition, Ryanair jumped 5.7% after reporting that its first-quarter net profit more than doubled.

WTI crude oil prices held near the 67.1 dollar per barrel mark on Monday. The focus remained on US-EU trade talks ahead of potential US tariffs on EU imports from August 1, while the EU stepped up pressure on Russia with its 18th package of sanctions. The new measures include lower price caps on Russian crude, restrictions on the supply of oil products, and a ban on a major Indian refinery using Russian crude. China has responded to EU sanctions targeting its banks and firms by vowing to protect its interests. Meanwhile, Iran will hold nuclear talks with EU countries this Friday amid threats of renewed international sanctions.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 6% to $3.34/MMBtu on Monday, reversing part of the 7% gain made last week as prices were pressured by high supply and lower demand expectations. Production reached a new record in July, averaging 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), surpassing the previous June high of 106.4 bcf/day. This surge in production allowed energy companies to pump 46 bcf into storage during the week ended July 11, well above both the 18 bcf added during the same week last year and the five-year average of 41 bcf. As a result, total gas inventories are now 6.2% above the seasonal norm.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose to $38.9 an ounce, the highest level since August 2011, as the US dollar and Treasury yields declined amid concerns about ongoing trade talks and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fed spokesman Christopher Waller reiterated his support for easing rates in July, citing a weakening labor market and lower inflation risks. He also downplayed the inflationary impact of rates, calling it temporary, and stated that there are no signs of rising inflation expectations, giving the Fed room to act. Further support for silver came from China, where the Ministry of Industry pledged to stabilize growth in key sectors such as machinery, automobiles, and electrical equipment. This initiative is aimed at modernizing production and is expected to boost demand for metals.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any single dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.21%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.33%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.68%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) yesterday showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered a third rate cut in four meetings, but ultimately stayed on hold, deeming such a move inconsistent with a strategy of cautious and gradual easing, minutes of the July meeting showed. A minority of the Council’s representatives supported a rate cut, citing downside risks to global economic growth and weak domestic GDP, which could lead to a faster decline in inflation than previously expected.

Hong Kong’s annualized inflation rate fell to 1.4% in June 2025 from 1.9% in the previous month, the slowest pace in three months. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices were unchanged in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for June 2025 was 1.1%, slightly below the market consensus and May’s 1.2%. This is the lowest rate since February 2021. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food and administrative prices, held at 1.8% y/y for the second month, remaining at the highest level since November 2023.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,305.60 +8.81 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,323.07 −19.12 (−0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,307.80 +18.29 (+0.075%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,012.99 +20.87 (+0.23%)

USD Index 97.86 −0.62 (−0.63%)

News feed for: 2025.07.22

Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:15 (GMT+3);
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Jul

EUR/USD Rises as Investors Remain Cautious Amid Mounting Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair climbed higher, settling near 1.1688 by Tuesday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key trade negotiation updates. The looming 1 August deadline –set by the US for new trade agreements – has kept markets on edge.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked on Monday that the quality of trade deals takes precedence over strict deadlines for the current administration. He added that President Donald Trump may extend the deadline for countries demonstrating constructive progress in negotiations.

Market attention has now shifted to an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Washington. Investors are keen for any signals regarding future interest rate policy.

Despite mounting pressure from Trump for a rate cut, markets remain sceptical that such a move will materialise in the next Fed meeting.

With a light economic calendar at the start of the week, traders are focusing on broader macroeconomic factors.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range near 1.1640. Breaking upwards, the pair achieved its local correction target at 1.1716. Today, we anticipate a pullback towards 1.1640 (testing from above), followed by another upside move to 1.1726, where the correction’s potential is likely to be exhausted.

Subsequently, we expect a fresh decline towards 1.1560, with further downside potential to 1.1488. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has met its local growth target at 1.1716, with the entire upward move seen as a correction to the prior downtrend. Today, a decline towards 1.1640 is probable, followed by another rise to 1.1726.

This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line sits below 50 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD shows short-term bullish momentum, the broader trend remains bearish, with key resistance levels likely to cap gains before another downward move unfolds.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Jul

India’s Economic Surge: A New Era of Trade and Growth

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/18/25)

Could the next major powerhouse in world trading be India? Experts talk about the Asian country and its similarities to China before its economy exploded.

The federal debt relative to the U.S. economy has reached heights unseen since World War II, according to a report by Wendy Edelberg, Ben Harris, and Louise Sheiner for Brookings in February.

Without adjustments to tax and spending policies, it is expected to rise continuously. The existing tax structure is insufficient to meet the escalating costs associated with retirement and health benefits for an aging demographic, according to the report. To date, the U.S. has managed to borrow trillions annually. However, analysts caution that the mounting national debt is bound to precipitate a financial crisis.

In an interview with Lisa Abramowicz at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles that was posted June 11 on YouTube, DoubleLine Group Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said one of the “most-bankable” long-term themes to look at is investing in India, now the world’s most populous country with 1.46 billion people in 2025. As much as 40% of that population is under 25, giving the country a young demographic profile, as well.

“Because India has a similar profile today to where China was 35 years ago, when they had tremendous population, labor force, visibility of labor force growth, tremendous problems, a gummed-up legal system, (and) corruption all over the place,” Gundlach said. “But those are things that can be fixed. And you see, China went from 1/12th of the U. S. GDP to 70-80% of U. S. GDP.”

He continued, “India has the same demographic outlook as China did then,” and has the benefit of being “very technological.”

A Trade Agreement Enhancing Exports?

A substantial trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington could significantly enhance India’s exports and manufacturing sector, leading to prolonged economic growth, as per Bloomberg Economics, reported Ruchi Bhatia for Bloomberg on July 5.

Such a deal could potentially double India’s exports of goods to the U.S. — its largest international market, which constitutes 19.3% of its total exports — over the next decade, and boost its gross domestic product by 0.6%, according to a report by economists Abhishek Gupta and Eleonora Mavroeidi, Bhatia reported.

Including services, total exports to the U.S. are projected to increase by 64%, the report added.

The majority of these export gains are expected to come from textiles and light manufacturing goods, such as furniture, toys, and other consumer products. The economists noted that the trade agreement would represent a significant turning point for India’s domestic manufacturing sector.

Nikita Yadav reported for the BBC on July 17 that “Washington and Delhi are ‘very close’ to finalizing a trade deal” as high-level talks between the sides continue.

“We’re very close to a deal with India where they open it [the market] up,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday, Yadav reported.

With the Trump administration imposing substantial tariffs on China and Vietnam, a trade deal that sets tariffs at 10% for India could position the country as an attractive option for businesses looking to relocate or diversify their supply chains, the economists explained.

Should the trade deal not materialize and India faces higher reciprocal tariffs of 26%, the country could lose more than a third of its direct exports to the U.S., and its GDP could suffer a 0.7% decline, according to the report.

India was one of the first countries to start trade negotiations with the U.S. this year, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making significant concessions to satisfy the White House. However, in recent weeks, both parties have adopted firmer positions on sectors such as agriculture.

India Starting to Look Safer, Researcher Says

According to Investing.com, Indian stocks closed higher on July 16, with gains in the Real Estate, Technology, and Public Sector Undertakings sectors driving the shares upward. At the close on the NSE, the Nifty 50 was up by 0.06%, while the BSE Sensex 30 index increased by 0.08%.

India’s stock market is poised to reach new heights by the end of 2025 and is expected to continue its ascent into the following year, according to a Reuters survey of equity analysts. Despite some concerns about high valuations and the potential for a correction in the next three months, the outlook remains optimistic. After a period of selling, foreign investors became net purchasers in April for the first time in four months. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Nifty 50 index has surged nearly 15% from a 10-month low in early April, although it remains below its all-time peak of 26,277.35 reached in late September, Vivek Mishra reported for Reuters.

The BSE Sensex is projected to rise to 86,100 by the end of 2025, reaching 89,000 by mid-2026 and 95,000 by the end of 2026, according to the poll.

“India is starting to look like a safer bet since there aren’t many growth alternatives,” Yogesh Kalinge, associate director of research at A.K. Capital Services, told Reuters. “Trump’s policy is not leading to the usual outflows toward the U.S. safe haven and is in fact making emerging markets look better . . . (But) if you look at valuations, they do look stretched.”

With an average price-to-earnings ratio of 23.52, the Indian stock market is among the most expensive globally, trailing only the U.S. at 25.41 and significantly above China’s 12.00. Of the analysts who responded to an additional question, 15 out of 28 indicated that a correction — typically defined as a decline of 10% or more — was very likely or likely. The remaining 13 viewed it as unlikely or very unlikely.

“I expect a correction in the short term . . . because of the inability of large caps to grow as expected. Large-cap index revenue growth is below India’s nominal economic growth, which is worrisome,” stated Sreeram Ramdas, vice president at Green Portfolio PMS.

A substantial majority, 23 out of 29 analysts, anticipate that corporate earnings growth in 2025 will be marginally higher, with four predicting significantly higher growth, the Reuters piece reported. Six analysts expect earnings to be marginally or significantly lower.

Profit growth for Nifty 50 companies remained subdued in the December quarter, with most companies missing estimates. However, this was an improvement after three notably weaker quarters.

“Earnings growth moderated due to a slower recovery in private sector investment. While some of these pressures have started to ease, the recovery has been insufficient to offset the overall slowdown in corporate performance,” explained Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking.

Seeking Alpha ranked Indian stocks according to its “quantamental” analysis, which grades stocks based on collective value, growth, profitability, earnings per share revisions, and price momentum metrics.

The site said William Blair & Co. analysts attribute India’s superior performance to robust economic fundamentals, advantageous demographics, and an expanding middle class. In their Emerging Markets 2025 report, the analysts noted, “The current valuation premium…should prompt investors to adopt a cautious, quality-focused approach in the present climate.”

They further added, “As India progresses along its growth path, it has the capacity to mirror China’s swift economic rise that began in the early 1990s, though potentially with a more balanced and sustainable approach to growth.”

Here are three stocks listed by the site as offering exposure to markets in this this emerging trade powerhouse.

MakeMyTrip Ltd.

MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT:NASDAQ), based in Gurugram, scored 3.18 out of 5 on Sthat scale. It manages prominent online travel brands such as MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus. Through the company’s main websites, www.makemytrip.com, www.goibibo.com, www.redbus.in, and mobile applications, travelers can explore, plan, and book a broad array of travel services and products both within India and internationally, the company said on its site.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT:NASDAQ)

	Institutions: 75%
	Strategic Corporate Entities: 15%
	Retail: 7%
	Insiders and Management: 3%

75%

15%

^*Share Structure as of 7/16/2025

Source: Refinitiv

Offerings include air ticketing, bookings for hotels and alternative accommodations, vacation planning and packages, bus and rail ticketing, car rentals, and other travel necessities like third-party travel insurance, foreign exchange services, and visa processing.

MakeMyTrip said it offers customers comprehensive access to all major domestic full-service and budget airlines in India, as well as major international airlines flying to and from India. Additionally, the company said it provides a vast selection of domestic lodging options in India and numerous accommodation choices abroad, connections to Indian Railways, and all principal bus operators in India.

According to Seeking Alpha, in the last 90 days, seven Wall Street analysts have rated the stock a Strong Buy and three have rated it a Buy.

MakeMyTrip closed the Tuesday trading session at US$93.01, marking a +2.25% increase from the previous day’s close, according to a report by Zacks Equity Research published by Yahoo! Finance. This performance outpaced the S&P 500, which saw a decline of 0.4% on the same day. Conversely, the Dow fell by 0.98%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a modest rise of 0.18%.

Over the past month, shares of the online travel company have declined by 9.83%, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector, which gained 6.34%, and the S&P 500, which rose by 4.97%.

Investors are keenly anticipating MakeMyTrip’s performance in its forthcoming earnings announcement, the Zacks report noted. The company is scheduled to release its earnings report on July 22, 2025. It is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45, reflecting a 15.38% increase from the same quarter last year. Additionally, the latest consensus estimate projects the company’s revenue to hit US$277.12 million, up 8.88% from the same quarter of the previous year.

MakeMyTrip recently launched a significant primary offering that included 14 million shares, with an additional 2.1 million shares available through a greenshoe option; and a 0% convertible senior note valued at US$1.25 billion due in 2030, with a greenshoe option of US$187.5 million, Manik Taneja of Axis Capital wrote in an updated research note on June 17. The analyst set a rating of ADD with a target price of US$120 per share.

This move aims to purchase a substantial portion of Class B shares from its majority shareholder, Trip.com, reducing their stake from approximately 45% to around 20% following the transaction. Our preliminary estimates (see Exhibit 1 below) indicate that the earnings impact should be minimal, as the change in the number of shares is relatively slight compared to our forecasts. The recent market correction presents an opportunity to invest in a consistent performer, especially considering the positive demand trends in the Indian Travel tech sector.

According to a July 14 research note by Ambit Institutional Equities Analyst Ashwin Mehta, some keys to look for from the company include “growth outlook, especially recovery in domestic air ticketing, outbound air and hotel momentum, and any impact of macro uncertainties (that) led pullback on travel spends.

Mehta rated the stock a Buy with a US$117 per share target price.

Refinitiv notes that about 3% of the company is owned by insiders, about 15% by strategic corporate entities, and 75% by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include Trip.com Group Ltd. with 11.99%, GIC Private Ltd. with 7.64%, Baillie Gifford & Co. with 5.74%, Fidelity Management & Research Co. with 4.35%, and Travogue Electronic Travel Private Ltd. with 2.62%.

Its market cap is US$8.85 billion 95.15 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$76.95 and $123.

Infosys Ltd.

Infosys Ltd. (INFY:NYSE), headquartered in Bengaluru, provides next-generation digital services and consulting. With a workforce of over 320,000, the company said it strives to enhance human potential and forge new opportunities for individuals, businesses, and communities worldwide.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Infosys Ltd. (INFY:NYSE)

	Retail: 86%
	Institutions: 14%

86%

14%

^*Share Structure as of 7/16/2025

Source: Refinitiv

Infosys, which scored 3.09 on Seeking Alpha’s scale, said it assists clients across more than 59 countries on their journey through digital transformation, powered by cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

On Wednesday, the company unveiled the Infosys Enterprise Innovation Lab for SAP Solutions at its Düsseldorf, Germany location. This initiative, emerging from a collaboration between Infosys and SAP, is crafted to empower enterprises to delve into the expansive potential of AI and data, develop bespoke solutions for their unique business challenges, and expedite the adoption of advanced Infosys and SAP technologies.

The lab is designed to facilitate the creation of solutions that boost financial performance, enhance operational efficiency, improve risk management, and support decision-making through real-time data insights, while also elevating compliance and security standards. Innovations developed in the Düsseldorf lab will be accessible globally through Infosys’ network of over 12 Living Labs.

“Enterprises looking to adopt new SAP solutions will find that the Infosys Enterprise Innovation Lab for SAP Solutions significantly smoothens their transformation journey,” said Infosys Executive Vice President and Chief Delivery Officer Dines Rao. “Located in our Düsseldorf office, this collaborative space is designed to develop customized solutions. Leveraging Infosys Topaz and Infosys Cobalt, we aim to enable businesses to fully utilize cloud, data, and AI technologies, achieving substantial business benefits such as improved efficiency, better decision-making, cost reductions, and preparedness for the future.”

A June 11 research note by Daniel Alvarez and Scott White for Yaru Investments titled “India’s Artificial Intelligence Supercycle” noted that Infosys was one of India’s “IT leaders.”

Infosys is renowned for its comprehensive approach to integrating enterprise AI. The Topaz platform consolidates generative AI, machine learning, and automation into industry-specific modules applicable to sectors like banking, manufacturing, and healthcare. Through significant partnerships with major platforms such as Microsoft Azure and AWS, Infosys collaborates to create customized LLM-based solutions for its global clientele.

“Infosys stands out for its end-to-end approach to enterprise AI integration,” the analysts noted. “Its Topaz platform brings together generative AI, machine learning, and automation into deployable modules tailored for industries such as banking, manufacturing, and healthcare. With major partnerships (including with Microsoft Azure and AWS), Infosys co-develops customized LLM-based solutions for global clients.”

The company’s commitment to reskilling its workforce, particularly in areas like prompt engineering and AI ethics, establishes Infosys as a preferred partner for organizations looking to implement GenAI on a large scale, they wrote. Crucially, Infosys has successfully transitioned AI from experimental phases to a source of revenue generation, with discussions with clients increasingly focused on the productivity improvements and cost efficiencies driven by AI.

According to Refinitiv, about 14% of the company is owned by institutions, and the rest is retail.

Top shareholders include First Trust Advisors LP with 0.97%, Robeco Institutional Asset Management with 0.66%, Acadian Asset Management LLC with 0.64%, State Street Global Advisors (US) with 0.41%, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP with 0.4%

Its market cap is US$77.52 billion with 4.14 billion shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$15.82 and US$23.63.

ICICI Bank Ltd.

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN:NYSE) scored the highest on Seeking Alpha’s rankings with 4.86 out of 5 points. The company continues to stand out as a structural compounder, boasting an industry-leading return profile and consistently outperforming its major peers in terms of growth, according to a research note by Axis Capital’s Jayant Kharote on June 18.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN:NYSE)

	Retail: 80%
	Institutions: 19%
	Strategic Corporate Entities: 1%

80%

19%

^*Share Structure as of 7/17/2025

Source: Refinitiv

Its robust foothold in the mortgage and unsecured segments, along with an expanding SME/BB franchise, is expected to propel credit growth recovery to around 15%, the analyst noted. While the impact on Net Interest Margin (NIM) might be slightly more pronounced compared to its peers, a recovery is anticipated by Q4FY26/Q1FY27E.

The bank’s dominant retail franchise provides an additional lever for fee growth, helping to mitigate near-term pressures on earnings per share (EPS). Over the medium term, ICICI Bank is poised to maintain its leadership in growth and return ratios among the large private banks.

However, its rich valuation suggests limited upside potential, leading the firm to maintain its ADD rating on the stock.

Should there be a delay in systemic recovery, ICICI Bank is better positioned compared to its peers, offering a more secure investment option in the context of a credit growth revival, Kharote wrote.

“ICICI Bank continues to exhibit best-in-class asset quality metrics,” the analyst wrote.

On April 19, the company released a performance review for the quarter ending March 31.

It noted that profit before tax, excluding treasury activities, increased by 13.2% year-on-year to 16,534 crore (US$1.9 billion), and core operating profit rose by 13.7% year-on-year to 17,425 crore (US$2.0 billion). Profit after tax saw an 18% year-on-year increase to 12,630 crore (US$1.5 billion) in that quarter.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, profit before tax, excluding treasury, grew by 11.4% year-on-year to 60,713 crore (US$7.1 billion), and core operating profit for FY2025 increased by 12.5% year-on-year to 65,396 crore (US$7.6 billion), ICICI said in a release.

“The Board has recommended a dividend of 11 rupees per share for FY2025,” the company said. “The declaration and payment of dividend is subject to requisite approvals.”

Refinitiv noted that less than 1% of the company is owned by strategic corporate entities and about 19% by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include GQG Partners LLC with 2.17%, WCM Investment Management with 1.5%, Morgan Stanley Investment Management with 0.99%, Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. with 0.76%, and Capital International Investors with 0.56%.

Its market cap is US$117.85 billion with 3.6 billion shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$27.26 and US$34.50.

Important Disclosures:

Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

21 Jul

Precious Metals Miner Maintains Strong Gold-Silver Gains

Source: Ben Pirie (7/18/25)

While Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM:TSX; ANPMF:OTCQX) has lower than expected second-quarter production results, the company is still a Buy, according to an Atrium Research note.

On July 18, 2025, Atrium Research analysts Ben Pirie and Nicholas Cortellucci maintained a Buy rating on Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM:TSX; ANPMF:OTCQX) while raising the target price to CA$4.50 from CA$3.50, representing 29% upside from the current share price of CA$3.50.

The analysts cited rising gold and silver prices, multiple expansions across the sector, and strong operational momentum despite slightly weaker-than-expected second-quarter production results.

Andean Precious Metals Inc. reported second quarter 2025 operational results producing 24.3 thousand ounces of gold equivalent between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets, which was softer than analyst estimates primarily due to seasonality factors. The company sold 23.0 thousand ounces of gold equivalent during the quarter, declining year-over-year due to a shift production cadence.

Golden Queen production came in at 12.2 thousand ounces of gold equivalent, down 28% year-over-year, compared to Atrium’s estimate of 14.4 thousand ounces. This consisted of 11.2 thousand ounces of gold and 89 thousand ounces of silver, with 11.8 thousand ounces of gold equivalent sold, including 10.9 thousand ounces of gold and 87 thousand ounces of silver.

San Bartolome production totaled 12.1 thousand ounces of gold equivalent, declining 9% year-over-year compared to the analyst estimate of 12.2 thousand ounces. This comprised 0.7 thousand ounces of gold and 1.0 million ounces of silver, with 11.2 thousand ounces of gold equivalent sold, including 0.5 thousand ounces of gold and 1.0 million ounces of silver.

Seasonal Production Profile and Guidance

Management reiterated that 60% of annual production will be mined in the second half of the year and confirmed the company remains on track for the top end of guidance.

Pirie and Cortellucci noted they “have now adjusted our model to better reflect the seasonality at San Bart” following the variance between their estimates and reported results due to the 40% first half, 60% second half production split.

Updated Financial Projections and Commodity Assumptions

The analysts updated their commodity price assumptions to US$2,700 per ounce for gold and US$31 per ounce for silver, increased from previous assumptions of US$2,400 per ounce and US$30 per ounce, respectively, though remaining “conservatively below spot prices.”

The revised assumptions result in forecasted adjusted EBITDA of $98 million for 2025, with the company trading at 3.7x 2025 estimated EBITDA.

For second quarter financials scheduled for release on August 12, 2025, after market close, the analysts expect sales of US$64.7 million (down 7% year-over-year), adjusted EBITDA of US$17.0 million, representing a 26% margin, and operating cash flow of US$13.0 million or 20% of revenue.

Valuation Methodology and Target Price Increase

The analysts increased their target multiple from 6.0x to 6.5x for 2025 estimated operating cash flow due to “multiple expansion across gold and silver producers” and strong operational results. The CA$4.50 target price equates to 5x 2025 estimated EBITDA, 8x 2025 estimated earnings, and an 8% free cash flow yield.

Andean Precious Metals stock has risen 130% since the analysts’ initiation of coverage, driven by higher gold and silver prices and operational execution. The company exhibits a 1.3x beta to silver and a 2.4x beta to gold, “offering investors strong exposure to rising metal prices.”

Financial Position and Strategic Advantages

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with US$101 million in cash and US$70 million in debt, providing flexibility for growth through acquisitions and capital returns via share buybacks. Andean Precious Metals has demonstrated a track record of successful acquisitions, including Golden Queen and San Bartolome properties.

The company benefits from aligned management with CEO Alberto Morales bringing over 30 years of merger and acquisition and finance experience, while owning 53% of shares, and Eric Sprott holding 15%, creating strong alignment with shareholders.

Near-Term Catalysts and Outlook

Key catalysts include ongoing operational improvements, exploration results, new contracts, and debt paydown or refinancing expected in the fourth quarter 2025. The analysts emphasized that APM “remains set up to generate large cash flow in the quarter, growing into H2” based on the seasonal production profile and current commodity price environment.

The company’s conference call is scheduled for August 13, 2025, at 9:00 AM Eastern Time to discuss second quarter financial results and provide operational updates.

Important Disclosures:

This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Atrium Research, Andean Precious Metals, July 18, 2025

Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Atrium Research on this report certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated securities discussed (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the research, (iii) to the best of the authoring analyst’s knowledge, she/he is not in receipt of material non-public information about the issuer, (iv) the analyst does not own common shares, options, or warrants in the company under coverage, and (v) the analysts adhere to the CFA Institute guidelines for analyst independence. Atrium Research Ratings System BUY: The stock is expected to generate returns of over 20% over the next 24 months. HOLD: The stock is expected to generate returns of 0-20% over the next 24 months. 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Financial News Metals

21 Jul

Inflationary pressure is increasing in New Zealand. The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates unchanged

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.32% (-0.01% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.01% (+0.67% for the week). The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07% (+1.25% for the week). The US stocks closed nearly flat on Friday as investors weighed President Trump’s demand for higher tariffs against the European Union amid strong economic data and corporate earnings. According to reports, Trump is demanding minimum tariffs of 15–20% in any deal with the EU, which is working to conclude an agreement by August 1. On the corporate front, Netflix shares fell by 5.1% despite exceeding revenue and profit estimates, while Charles Schwab shares rose 3% thanks to strong results.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US rose to 61.8 in July 2025, its highest level in five months. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for the second month in a row to 4.4% from 5% in June. Long-term inflation expectations fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 3.6% from 4%. Both inflation indicators are the lowest since February, indicating that consumers believe inflation will continue to decline further.

European stock markets were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.33% (+1.05% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.01% (+0.63% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.04% (+0.67% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.22% (+0.57% for the week). European stocks closed in the red on Friday as investors monitored corporate events and signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and the European Union. Technology companies continued their volatile movement as tariffs and broader economic uncertainty continued to cloud their outlook, with ASML shares falling 2.6%. Heavyweight luxury brands and automakers also closed in the red: Hermes, LVMH, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis lost between 1% and 3%.

WTI oil price reached $67.3 per barrel on Friday, posting a weekly decline of 1%, as mixed economic data from the US offset concerns about new EU sanctions on Russian energy exports. Weak US housing data points to a decline in housing investment, but improved consumer sentiment and lower inflation have raised hopes for future rate cuts and increased demand for energy. Meanwhile, the EU approved an 18th package of sanctions targeting the Russian oil industry, including a new floating price cap and a ban on petroleum products made from Russian oil.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.12%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 3.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 2.06%.

The offshore yuan exchange rate remained virtually unchanged on Monday at around 7.17 per dollar as markets digested the latest decision by the People’s Bank of China. As expected, the Central Bank kept its benchmark lending rates at historic lows during its July rate-setting meeting. The 1-year prime rate, which is a key benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was kept at 3%, while the 5-year LPR, which determines mortgage rates, remained at 3.5%. This comes amid continuing signs of weak consumer sentiment and uneven economic growth.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.594 on Monday, reversing the previous session’s gains and ending up near a four-week low as investors reacted to softer-than-expected inflation data. In the second quarter, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5%, below the expectations of 0.6% compared to 0.9% in the first quarter. On an annualized basis, inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.5%, but fell short of the expectations of 2.8%. Although inflation is approaching the upper end of the RBNZ’s target range of 1–3%, weak underlying pressures and a significant economic downturn have kept expectations of a rate cut in August intact.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,296.79 −0.57 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,342.19 −142.30 (−0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 24,289.51 −81.42 (−0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,992.12 +19.48 (+0.22%)

USD Index 98.46 −0.27 (−0.27%)

News feed for: 2025.07.21

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Jul

Gold Starts the Week on the Upside as Investors Weigh Trump’s Tariff Threat

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold climbed to $3,350 per troy ounce on Monday, marking its second consecutive session of gains amid growing investor unease over Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that 1 August would serve as a strict deadline for implementing so-called ‘mirror duties’, though negotiations could extend beyond that date. He indicated that a base tariff of 10% might apply to smaller trading partners.

Earlier in July, Trump notified more than twenty trading partners of new tariff rates, with some items facing levies as high as 40%.

However, last week’s robust US economic data has tempered expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby capping gold’s upside potential for now.

Investors are now focused on upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman, seeking fresh signals on the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is continuing its upward movement towards $3,384. Today, we anticipate the pair will reach this level before undergoing a corrective pullback to $3,333. The market is effectively forming a broad consolidation range around $3,344.

A breakout above this range could extend gains toward $3,494. Conversely, a downside breach may trigger a decline toward $3,235. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around $3,333, having briefly declined to $3,310. The current structure suggests a fresh upward wave towards at least $3,390, followed by a retest of $3,333 from above. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains bullish in the short term, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, though expectations regarding Fed policy may limit further gains. Traders should monitor key resistance at $3,384 and support at $3,333 for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

19 Jul

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,625 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (321 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-24,798 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,573 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,956 contracts), the British Pound (-4,003 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,486 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,286 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-605 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-441 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-50 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

Highlighting the week for the currency markets this week was the Euro bets rising higher as well as a modest US Dollar Index comeback over the past three weeks.

The biggest mover with gains in speculative bets was the Euro which advanced for a second straight week and has now risen for eight out of the past ten weeks (for a 10-week improvement by +52,502 contracts). These gains have pushed the net speculator standing (currently at +128,221 contracts) to the highest level in 83-weeks, dating back to December 2023.

The US Dollar Index was the only other gainer in speculative bets on the week and the USD positions have risen for three straight weeks. Despite these gains, the US Dollar Index standing still remains in a small bearish position currently at -3,665 net contracts.

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real saw a big drop in speculative positions by almost -25,000 contracts. The Brazilian Real positioning has been up and down over the last 10 weeks with big gains and big retreats. Currently, the Brazilian Real still has a positive net speculative position of almost +25,000 contracts.

The Japanese Yen saw another fall in speculator bets this week, with its overall net position standing at +103,582 contracts. This is down from the all-time high that was reached in April near +180,000 contracts. The Yen position has been clearly softening but still remains historically bullish with contracts over +100,000.

FX Price Changes this week

Overall, the Forex markets were pretty subdued in price changes for the week. The US Dollar Index was the only riser on the week and edged higher for a second week, up by approximately 0.70%. The Australian Dollar was the biggest decliner with a fall by over -1% on the week while the Japanese Yen was close to a -1% decline followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by almost -0.75%.

The US Dollar Index has made some gains over the last two weeks but prices stalled out around 98.60 on the upside this week and settled back down to end the week at 98.20. The U.S. Dollar Index is still down by over 10% since the beginning of the year and remains under that 100.00 psychological price level.

The Japanese Yen’s price uptrend has stalled and the currency has now fallen for three straight weeks (vs the USD). Meanwhile, the other currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and the Australian Dollar all saw slight declines on the week but still trade close to their highest levels of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (79 percent) and the EuroFX (78 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (69 percent), Brazilian Real (64 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (23 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (77.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (79.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (82.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (84.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	37.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,665	4,422	-757
– Gross Longs:	16,262	13,186	3,065
– Gross Shorts:	19,927	8,764	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.1	95.4	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.9	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.5	5.1
– Net Position:	128,221	-184,215	55,994
– Gross Longs:	242,096	451,525	97,608
– Gross Shorts:	113,875	635,740	41,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	18.4	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.7	1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	26.7	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	46.7	14.0
– Net Position:	29,191	-37,481	8,290
– Gross Longs:	100,980	49,932	34,471
– Gross Shorts:	71,789	87,413	26,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	48.3	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-11.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	33.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	103,582	-110,846	7,264
– Gross Longs:	165,444	108,744	43,283
– Gross Shorts:	61,862	219,590	36,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	23.0	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	16.3	-38.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	66.7	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	35.7	20.3
– Net Position:	-22,637	23,016	-379
– Gross Longs:	9,959	49,559	14,677
– Gross Shorts:	32,596	26,543	15,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	37.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-4.7	-2.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	69.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	33.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-74,094	72,766	1,328
– Gross Longs:	21,924	141,093	27,836
– Gross Shorts:	96,018	68,327	26,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	44.5	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-16.0	10.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	64.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	16.3	14.4
– Net Position:	-74,919	72,528	2,391
– Gross Longs:	21,233	97,063	24,040
– Gross Shorts:	96,152	24,535	21,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	73.2	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.8	1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	47.8	9.7
– Net Position:	3,635	-4,003	368
– Gross Longs:	16,623	16,041	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	20,044	4,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	29.6	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.6	-31.0	3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	38.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.5	1.7
– Net Position:	50,122	-56,173	6,051
– Gross Longs:	92,332	63,981	8,820
– Gross Shorts:	42,210	120,154	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.3	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	19.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	59.9	0.9
– Net Position:	24,172	-28,068	3,896
– Gross Longs:	60,809	28,965	4,761
– Gross Shorts:	36,637	57,033	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	34.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	4.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -50 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	7.3	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.5	1.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,486	1,927	559
– Gross Longs:	24,282	2,287	1,629
– Gross Shorts:	26,768	360	1,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.5	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-0.5	10.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq, Silver & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 31 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position registered 34,892 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,681 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number two in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -2 points this week. The overall speculator position was 59,448 net contracts this week with a small increase by 927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level resides at 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a rise of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 82,803 net contracts this week with a change of -8,097 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position shows up next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was -873 net contracts this week with a drop by -3,971 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top scores in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week.

The speculator position was -228,618 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,794 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,486 net contracts this week with a dip of -50 contracts in the speculator bets. With the Bitcoin price hitting all-time highs, the weak speculator positioning indicates that speculators may be hedging contracts in the futures market to protect themselves from price declines.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -5 points this week. The speculator position was -2,505,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -79,742 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -52,099 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,352 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,665 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 321 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -379,116 net contracts this week with a jump of 29,162 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Metals Opinions

19 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,147 contracts), Palladium (1,153 contracts), Copper (1,120 contracts), Silver (927 contracts) and Steel (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Platinum (-1,472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

Gold led the market this week in terms of rising speculator positions, with the Gold price continuing to trade near its all-time high levels. This week, it closed a little below $3,360 and is still in an uptrend.

On the downside, Platinum was the only market to see a decline on the week, with a modest -1,472 contract decline. Platinum has also been a strong mover in the markets and is trading exceptionally higher since May, with a rise of almost 45% in just the past few months as the price has taken off.

Overall, the only metals market that still has a negative speculator level is Palladium at -3,581 contracts. Despite this bearish position, Palladium prices have also been on the rise, not as quite as sharp as the other metals but has started an upward move and risen to levels not seen since 2023.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Palladium (78 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.3 percent)
Silver (90.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.2 percent)
Copper (71.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.1 percent)
Platinum (61.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (65.1 percent)
Palladium (77.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (28 percent) and Copper (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-2 percent) joining as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.9 percent)
Silver (-1.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.9 percent)
Copper (15.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.9 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.8 percent)
Palladium (27.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.0 percent)
Steel (11.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 213,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	16.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.8	4.3
– Net Position:	213,115	-250,688	37,573
– Gross Longs:	270,227	75,989	56,976
– Gross Shorts:	57,112	326,677	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	32.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	15.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	20.7	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	67.1	7.1
– Net Position:	59,448	-79,648	20,200
– Gross Longs:	85,022	35,466	32,421
– Gross Shorts:	25,574	115,114	12,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.9	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	8.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	46.9	6.5
– Net Position:	40,724	-42,025	1,301
– Gross Longs:	75,423	63,262	15,789
– Gross Shorts:	34,699	105,287	14,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	34.2	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.9	-9.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	21.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	46.3	7.2
– Net Position:	19,302	-22,849	3,547
– Gross Longs:	55,186	19,611	10,187
– Gross Shorts:	35,884	42,460	6,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.7	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.9	4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	35.0	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	22.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,581	2,402	1,179
– Gross Longs:	8,344	6,945	3,042
– Gross Shorts:	11,925	4,543	1,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	15.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-31.3	17.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	68.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	71.4	0.7
– Net Position:	438	-670	232
– Gross Longs:	6,700	18,299	427
– Gross Shorts:	6,262	18,969	195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.8	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.1	15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

19 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (156,120 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (68,202 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,162 contracts), the Fed Funds (20,490 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-33,727 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,386 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (11,259 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,794 contracts), and the SOFR 1-Month (-1,100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) contracts were the leaders in the bond market for positive changes this week, gaining by over 150,000 positions. This market represents a short-term bond utilized by banks, broker-dealers and other entities and consistently has the highest open interest on a weekly basis.

On the other hand, the 2-year bond experienced the most significant decline this week, with a decrease of over -30,000 contracts.

Overall, most of the bond contract prices, ranging from the 2-year to the long treasury bonds, are trading within the same range that they have been for the past couple of years. While they are down from their 2020 levels, they continue to be in a holding pattern for the recent price history.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (1 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (60.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (31.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-32 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-31.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-48.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	61.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.5	2.2
– Net Position:	54,744	-60,193	5,449
– Gross Longs:	437,919	1,318,062	51,540
– Gross Shorts:	383,175	1,378,255	46,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	31.1	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.8	-35.2	-8.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -487,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 156,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -643,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	60.0	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,148	442,642	44,506
– Gross Longs:	1,394,554	6,835,065	90,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,881,702	6,392,423	45,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-24.2	12.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -149,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	59.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-149,007	145,500	3,507
– Gross Longs:	151,257	991,715	5,958
– Gross Shorts:	300,264	846,215	2,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	67.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.6	29.7	15.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,299,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,266,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	77.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	50.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,299,860	1,174,486	125,374
– Gross Longs:	600,084	3,389,554	247,372
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,944	2,215,068	121,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	12.8	1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,505,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,516,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	51.0	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,505,528	2,344,691	160,837
– Gross Longs:	487,008	5,932,240	430,351
– Gross Shorts:	2,992,536	3,587,549	269,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -772,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 68,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -840,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	63.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-772,377	686,019	86,358
– Gross Longs:	572,071	3,797,640	435,018
– Gross Shorts:	1,344,448	3,111,621	348,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	57.9	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.3	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -379,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -408,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-379,116	443,999	-64,883
– Gross Longs:	255,630	1,913,429	223,664
– Gross Shorts:	634,746	1,469,430	288,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.1	6.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -130,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	77.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	74.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-130,144	53,908	76,236
– Gross Longs:	145,115	1,405,838	226,498
– Gross Shorts:	275,259	1,351,930	150,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	54.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	11.4	-10.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	69.9	9.6
– Net Position:	-228,618	238,681	-10,063
– Gross Longs:	147,388	1,610,288	179,361
– Gross Shorts:	376,006	1,371,607	189,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	33.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.2	-8.4

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