InvestMacro

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,567 contracts) with Palladium (192 contracts) and Platinum (139 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,125 contracts), Steel (-3,544 contracts) and with Silver (-769 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads the Metals price performance

In the Metals markets this week, Palladium was the biggest winner for price performance with a 7.20% gain over the past 5 days. Platinum was higher as well by 5.09%, while Silver came in third with a 4.48% advance. Gold also rose higher with a strong 4.17% rise. Steel was up by 1.84%, and Copper rounds out the gainers with a 1.62% advance.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (39.7 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (70.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (85.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.7 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (10 percent) and Gold (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.4 percent)
Silver (-0.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.8 percent)
Platinum (10.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.3 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.6 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	16.2	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	72.0	3.4
– Net Position:	163,202	-201,640	38,438
– Gross Longs:	207,602	58,697	50,617
– Gross Shorts:	44,400	260,337	12,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	55.4	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.9	4.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	26.0	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	59.7	8.3
– Net Position:	23,904	-38,857	14,953
– Gross Longs:	33,463	29,892	24,465
– Gross Shorts:	9,559	68,749	9,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	75.1	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	5.6	-18.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	38.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	60.9	4.9
– Net Position:	40,104	-49,809	9,705
– Gross Longs:	71,107	84,546	20,448
– Gross Shorts:	31,003	134,355	10,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	27.5	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.8	-25.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	30.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	16,337	-21,603	5,266
– Gross Longs:	26,303	18,427	8,060
– Gross Shorts:	9,966	40,030	2,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	50.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-7.8	-10.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	35.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	35.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-1,050	-9	1,059
– Gross Longs:	6,835	5,433	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	7,885	5,442	1,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	17.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.9	-2.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	61.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.8	94.2	0.2
– Net Position:	10,918	-11,312	394
– Gross Longs:	11,871	20,848	473
– Gross Shorts:	953	32,160	79
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	16.6	87.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.5	5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

05 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (64,159 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (11,341 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,058 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (855 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-163,229 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-142,176 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-138,404 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-38,203 contracts) and with the Fed Funds (-18,664 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The Bond market price performances were higher across the board this week

The major Bond Markets were led higher this week in price performance by the long U.S. Treasury Bond, which rose by 0.55% over the past five days. The 10-Year Note followed along with a 0.24% increase, while the 5-Year Bond was higher by 0.11%.

The 2-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.03% uptick, and the Fed Funds Futures saw a minuscule edge higher by 0.01%. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate also was up by 0.01%, as was the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which also rose by 0.01%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and continues to be in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (56.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (64.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (43.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (60.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (65.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (62.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (85.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (70.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (66.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (54.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (28.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.2 percent)

5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (30 percent) and the Fed Funds (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (20.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-35.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-30.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (29.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (34.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-13.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (5.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-3.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (7.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (1.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	65.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.9	3.0
– Net Position:	-50,706	31,530	19,176
– Gross Longs:	331,480	1,430,175	83,806
– Gross Shorts:	382,186	1,398,645	64,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	49.4	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.6	-25.8	1.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -589,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -163,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -425,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	58.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	53.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-589,139	586,476	2,663
– Gross Longs:	1,953,604	6,958,456	26,736
– Gross Shorts:	2,542,743	6,371,980	24,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	71.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.8	1.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -66,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	58.1	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	54.1	1.5
– Net Position:	-66,508	66,512	-4
– Gross Longs:	378,084	955,984	25,104
– Gross Shorts:	444,592	889,472	25,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	33.9	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.0	0.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,637,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,638,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	46.9	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,637,324	1,572,073	65,251
– Gross Longs:	565,540	3,787,152	214,812
– Gross Shorts:	2,202,864	2,215,079	149,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	40.2	-22.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,586,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -138,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,448,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	80.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	57.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,586,840	1,527,540	59,300
– Gross Longs:	651,244	5,250,315	401,332
– Gross Shorts:	2,238,084	3,722,775	342,032
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	45.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-27.7	-31.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -784,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -142,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -641,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	63.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-784,063	748,325	35,738
– Gross Longs:	626,486	4,009,481	403,820
– Gross Shorts:	1,410,549	3,261,156	368,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	65.9	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.2	-17.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -167,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.3	13.1
– Net Position:	-167,212	276,819	-109,607
– Gross Longs:	203,324	1,931,851	199,734
– Gross Shorts:	370,536	1,655,032	309,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	48.4	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	10.7	21.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.3	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	77.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-31,633	-69,728	101,361
– Gross Longs:	214,537	1,323,153	241,653
– Gross Shorts:	246,170	1,392,881	140,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	28.2	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	20.0	-27.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -268,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -279,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	73.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-268,129	251,701	16,428
– Gross Longs:	126,528	1,897,318	194,931
– Gross Shorts:	394,657	1,645,617	178,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	38.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-0.7	-5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

05 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Bloomberg Commodity Index Speculator Bets Surge Higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Bloomberg Commodity Index

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (35,029 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,151 contracts) and Heating Oil (525 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-20,132 contracts), Brent Oil (-18,260 contracts) and with Gasoline (-1,520 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bloomberg Commodity Index Speculator Bets Surge Higher

Highlighting the Energy Speculative Positioning this week was the strong gains in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The net weekly position rose this week for a fourth consecutive week and this week’s gain, by a total of 35,029 contracts, marks the highest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data dating back to 2016. The Bloomberg Index is made up of multiple types of commodities with energy comprising approximately 30% of the Index. The Index price has been surging higher since the start of the Iran war and is up by approximately 33% in just the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil price leads the Energy market price performance

In the Energy markets this week, WTI Crude Oil saw a strong jump by almost 12% with an 11.94% surge higher over the past five days. The Bloomberg Commodity Index comes in next with a strong 5.14% gain on the week. Gasoline was up by 1.17%.

On the downside in performance, Heating Oil dipped this week by -2.99%, while Brent Crude Oil also fell by -3.14%. The leading market for the downside was Natural Gas, which dropped by -7.44% on the week.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Gasoline

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (100.0 percent) and Gasoline (62.6 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (25.0 percent) and Brent Oil (30.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (56.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (62.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (30.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Natural Gas (25.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (21.7 percent)
Gasoline (62.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (64.3 percent)
Heating Oil (56.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (100.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (23.8 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (74.4 percent) and WTI Crude (23.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Gasoline (-22.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-7.0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (23.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (37.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (0.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (26.4 percent)
Natural Gas (11.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-0.5 percent)
Gasoline (-22.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-7.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-13.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (74.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-1.6 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 213,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	42.9	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	54.9	2.2
– Net Position:	213,488	-245,091	31,603
– Gross Longs:	378,087	870,799	75,768
– Gross Shorts:	164,599	1,115,890	44,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.9	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-19.4	-17.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	41.9	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	30.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-35,815	32,776	3,039
– Gross Longs:	69,891	124,719	11,470
– Gross Shorts:	105,706	91,943	8,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.4	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-4.5	28.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -167,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	37.3	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	27.5	2.4
– Net Position:	-167,456	148,428	19,028
– Gross Longs:	204,139	564,656	56,127
– Gross Shorts:	371,595	416,228	37,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	76.2	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-17.5	20.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 68,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	73.7	4.7
– Net Position:	68,326	-81,172	12,846
– Gross Longs:	87,284	160,968	28,280
– Gross Shorts:	18,958	242,140	15,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	30.7	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	20.9	-1.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	50.9	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.6	9.4
– Net Position:	10,092	-29,760	19,668
– Gross Longs:	35,976	119,530	41,809
– Gross Shorts:	25,884	149,290	22,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	38.2	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	5.6	-1.5

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	59.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	69.5	0.0
– Net Position:	23,297	-23,828	531
– Gross Longs:	93,806	138,791	573
– Gross Shorts:	70,509	162,619	42
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	74.4	-74.0	-17.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

05 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Bets continue higher, Soybean Oil Bets at 5-Year High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (30,687 contracts) with Cotton (26,120 contracts), Soybean Oil (17,422 contracts), Soybeans (12,636 contracts), Live Cattle (10,113 contracts) and Wheat (7,673 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-40,603 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,434 contracts), Cocoa (-1,485 contracts) and with Coffee (-368 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar Bets continue higher, Soybean Oil Bets at 5-Year High

Highlighting the Soft Commodities speculator positions this week was a continued rise in the Sugar net positioning. Large speculator Sugar positions rose by 30,687 contracts this week and follow up last week’s gigantic rise by over 110,000 contracts as well as coming in as the sixth consecutive week where Sugar bets have risen. Over just the last six weeks, speculators have improved the Sugar position by 188,475 net contracts, bringing the overall speculator standing from -253,592 contracts on February 17th to this week’s total of just -65,117 net positions. This is the least bearish level for Sugar dating back to July of last year.

Soybean Oil has also been on the rise and saw a gain of over 17,000 contracts this week. Soybean Oil bets have been higher in 10 out of the last 13 weeks for an almost 195,000 net contract rise over that period. These gains have taken the Soybean Oil speculator position from over -60,000 contracts on December 30th to this week’s total of 134,557 net speculator positions. The Soybean Oil net position standing now sits at the highest level since January 5th of 2021, a span of 273 weeks.

On the opposite end of the speculator spectrum is Cocoa, which continues to see more bearish positions come into its overall standing. Cocoa positions have now fallen for two straight weeks and for four out of the past five weeks. This has brought the overall speculator position in Cocoa to a -21,601 net position which is the most bearish position dating back to 2019.

Cocoa prices have made a major U-turn in the past few years with the futures price starting a strong surge higher in early 2023 that saw a parabolic move all the way from approximately $2,500 to over $11,500 in short order. After retreating and consolidating in 2024 to a range between $7,000 to $8,500, we saw another big spike up late in 2024 and into early 2025 that saw prices rise above $12,000. Since then, prices have collapsed lower and have now settled in this week with a close of $3,245. Since the beginning of 2025, prices have fallen over 70% and went on an almost a full round trip from where prices started their climb in 2023.

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities price performances this week

The Soft Commodities markets were led this week in price performance by Live Cattle, which rose by 4.21% over the past five days. Cocoa came in second with a 2.56% gain, while Soybean Oil was also higher by 2.27%. Cotton also managed to rise more than 2% this week with a 2.10% increase. Soybeans saw a modest rise by 0.37%, while Lean Hogs rounded out the gainers on the week with a 0.17% advance.

Soybean Meal was virtually unchanged with a -0.03% shortfall. Corn fell by over 2% with a -2.11% decline, followed by Wheat which fell by -2.69% on the week. Coffee dropped by -3.98% for the week, while Sugar was the biggest loser on the week with a -5.48% decline.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent) and Wheat (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (94 percent), Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (35 percent), Coffee (48 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (81.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (87.3 percent)
Sugar (35.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.6 percent)
Coffee (48.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.7 percent)
Soybeans (94.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (91.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (91.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (94.9 percent)
Live Cattle (68.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (57.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (60.4 percent)
Cotton (67.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (52.3 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.4 percent)
Wheat (96.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (89.6 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (62 percent) and Corn (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (45 percent), Wheat (41 percent) and Soybean Oil (39 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (46.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (53.6 percent)
Sugar (35.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.2 percent)
Coffee (12.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.5 percent)
Soybeans (8.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (15.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (51.3 percent)
Live Cattle (0.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.9 percent)
Cotton (62.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (43.8 percent)
Cocoa (-3.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (40.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 334,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 375,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	40.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	55.8	10.9
– Net Position:	334,757	-273,643	-61,114
– Gross Longs:	488,759	745,244	138,269
– Gross Shorts:	154,002	1,018,887	199,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.8	15.7	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.6	-45.4	-50.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	52.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	46.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-65,117	49,637	15,480
– Gross Longs:	192,731	482,933	96,642
– Gross Shorts:	257,848	433,296	81,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	64.1	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-35.9	33.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	37.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	52.5	4.7
– Net Position:	25,056	-25,934	878
– Gross Longs:	51,593	66,289	9,169
– Gross Shorts:	26,537	92,223	8,291
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	53.1	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.9	20.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 227,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 215,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	45.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	65.2	8.6
– Net Position:	227,846	-194,445	-33,401
– Gross Longs:	292,633	445,071	51,226
– Gross Shorts:	64,787	639,516	84,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.2	8.1	6.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-8.4	2.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 134,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	44.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	64.9	3.8
– Net Position:	134,557	-148,949	14,392
– Gross Longs:	186,950	332,088	42,373
– Gross Shorts:	52,393	481,037	27,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-38.4	17.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 120,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 127,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	43.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	67.6	4.5
– Net Position:	120,194	-141,216	21,022
– Gross Longs:	175,060	259,734	47,754
– Gross Shorts:	54,866	400,950	26,732
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	6.6	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.2	-47.6	16.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 92,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.0	30.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	53.1	13.2
– Net Position:	92,260	-77,534	-14,726
– Gross Longs:	145,655	102,496	30,134
– Gross Shorts:	53,395	180,030	44,860
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	27.8	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	1.0	-4.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	35.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	46.2	8.5
– Net Position:	43,711	-37,042	-6,669
– Gross Longs:	120,667	115,185	21,369
– Gross Shorts:	76,956	152,227	28,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	45.5	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	15.2	20.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 48,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 26,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	36.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	53.1	2.9
– Net Position:	48,387	-57,948	9,561
– Gross Longs:	129,730	126,818	19,624
– Gross Shorts:	81,343	184,766	10,063
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.3	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	62.0	-62.0	60.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	39.9	4.6
– Net Position:	-21,601	19,366	2,235
– Gross Longs:	42,906	100,631	11,697
– Gross Shorts:	64,507	81,265	9,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.6	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	2.0	16.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	33.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	31.6	6.6
– Net Position:	-9,415	7,524	1,891
– Gross Longs:	145,000	161,925	33,907
– Gross Shorts:	154,415	154,401	32,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	0.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.5	-48.5	30.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Apr

War in the Middle East made the case for renewables – what’s happening in each country tells a harder story

By Ezgi Canpolat, Harvard University

The oil-dependent world is in crisis. Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – through which more than a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas flow – is at a virtual standstill. Oil prices have climbed, briefly topping US$119 a barrel.

The largest release of oil from countries’ strategic reserves in history is under way, in an effort to ease prices. But even so, billions of people are dealing with surging energy prices and spiking food and fertilizer costs. Governments are scrambling for alternatives, too. To reduce energy demand, Sri Lanka has declared every Wednesday a holiday for public officials, Myanmar is limiting private vehicle use to every other day, and Bangladeshi colleges have canceled classes.

Leaders of South Korea and the European Commission have used the current energy crisis to call for accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels and toward homegrown renewable sources. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres put it plainly in a March 10, 2026, social media post: “There are no price spikes for sunlight and no embargoes on the wind.”

I grew up in a coal-mining town in Turkey. I now study energy transitions across the Middle East and North Africa in a research project I co-lead at Harvard University. I have seen that a country’s desire to increase renewable energy is not the same as a plan to do so.

The very region embroiled in this war reveals that there is not a linear shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Rather, there are distinct trajectories, driven by energy dependence, fiscal pressures, governance and stability. Disruption at the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the same thing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as it does in Ankara, Turkey, or Baghdad, Iraq.

The petrostates hedging both sides

For Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, this crisis is a warning dressed as a windfall.

Oil prices have surged, which in theory means higher revenues. But the very infrastructure that produces and delivers that wealth is under direct attack. Iran has targeted oil refineries and shipment centers across the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz closure is simultaneously choking off their ability to get product to market, exposing how vulnerable the infrastructure of fossil fuel wealth can be.

All three countries have also committed to boosting renewable energy production. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the government aims for renewable energy sources to account for 50% of electricity generation by 2030, up from just 3% at the end of 2023.

Saudi Arabia’s biggest group of clean energy companies has pledged to spend $17 billion on solar and wind – across all their projects, spread out over several years.

But those efforts sit alongside vastly larger investments in fossil fuel production. In 2025 alone, the country’s nationally owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, spent $52.2 billion building new oil and gas infrastructure.

This is not a contradiction. It is a strategy built on the assumption that the world will keep buying fossil fuels for decades to come. The current crisis reinforces that assumption, but it also exposes its vulnerability: As war drives up oil prices, every oil-importing country is feeling the cost of continuing oil dependence. And every stranded export proves the energy transition can’t wait.

Price shock and necessity

Energy-importing countries such as Jordan, Morocco and Turkey are investing in renewable energy for a different reason: Fossil fuel dependence is bankrupting them.

Turkey imports over 70% of its fossil fuels, including virtually all of its natural gas, 17% of which comes from Iran. Natural gas accounts for less than a fifth of electricity generation, but it is the backbone of the country’s heating and industrial sectors and a major concern if supply falters. Turkey’s energy import bill is climbing at a time when the economy is already under strain from rising borrowing costs and weakening currency value.

Jordan, which historically has imported over 90% of its energy, faces similar pressure.

But these countries would be in far worse positions had they not already been investing in alternatives.

More than half of Turkey’s installed electricity capacity now comes from renewable energy sources. Morocco built one of the world’s largest concentrated solar facilities, and renewable sources now supply 25% of the country’s electricity. Similarly, Jordan has gone from virtually no renewable electricity to renewable sources providing more than a quarter of its power in roughly a decade.

The current war has vindicated their investments in renewable energy – though the vindication has limits. The same crisis that proves the value of renewable energy investment also raises inflation, tightens credit and strains the very public finances these countries need to keep building.

Every kilowatt-hour generated by a Turkish wind turbine or a Moroccan solar panel is one that does not depend on a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But the financial pressure means building the next renewable generating project just got harder.

Crisis upon crisis

Then there are countries where this war lands on top of existing emergencies.

Iraq, the second-largest oil producer in the region and in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, depends on Iranian gas imports to generate much of its electricity – a supply line now directly threatened by the war. Oil exports through the southern port of Basra, on the Persian Gulf, fund roughly 90% of Iraq’s government revenue. If those revenues are disrupted, the government may be unable to function. Iraq already suffers chronic electricity shortages and has virtually no renewable energy capacity to fall back on.

In Yemen, Libya and Syria, energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed by years of conflict. These countries import fuel at global prices to run generators and keep hospitals lit. Every dollar added to the price of oil makes that harder. For them, this war is not pointing out reasons to shift to renewable sources: It is threatening energy access itself.

An international challenge

In November 2026, the U.N.’s annual climate summit comes to the region at the center of this crisis, with Turkey as host.

The war in the Middle East has made a powerful case for the economic, political and humanitarian benefits of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. But it has also exposed something the global conversation consistently misses: Different countries are heading in different directions, based on their own circumstances, many of which predate this war.

Understanding those paths matters because it reveals what countries’ promises cannot: where the real barriers are, where the incentives already exist, and where support would make a difference – before the next disruption hits. In my view, this war has helped win the argument about whether to shift to renewable energy, but it has also highlighted a harder question: What does it actually take to build those sources, country by country?

About the Author:

Ezgi Canpolat, Visiting Postdoctoral Scholar, Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

03 Apr

Week Ahead: USDInd braces for slew of risk events

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 1.7% YTD
Iran conflict + Inflation combo = fresh volatility?
Over past year CPI decision triggered moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 1.0%
Technical levels: 100.70, 100.00 and 99.0

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and top-tier economic data could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

The OPEC+ meeting, President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and key US inflation data will be in focus:

Monday, 6th April

Easter Monday – Major financial markets are closed across Europe.
Deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
USDInd: ISM Services PMI (March)

Tuesday, 7th April

EUR: Eurozone S&P Global services PMI
SEK: Sweden CPI
USDInd: Fed Goolsbee Speech, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Wednesday, 8th April

CHF: Unemployment Rate (March)
GBP: S&P Global Construction PMI (March)
EUR: Retail Sales MoM (Feb), PPI
OIL: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
USDInd: FOMC Minutes

Thursday, 9th April

JPY: Consumer Confidence (March)
GER40: German Industrial Production MoM (Feb)
US500: US February PCE report, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP

Friday, 10th April

CNY: China Inflation Rates YoY (March)
USDInd: US CPI (March), Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The spotlight is on FXTM’s USDInd, which is currently trading around 100.00.

1. Ongoing Iran conflict (Week 6)

President Donald Trump has issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure in a bid to pressure Tehran in talks.

These developments come ahead of the Monday, 6th April, deadline set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Given how Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes, it feels like we are back at square one with an extended conflict sending shockwaves across the globe.

Note: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since 2nd March 2026.

If the conflict deepens with both sides attacking key energy infrastructure, the USDInd may rally as surging oil prices fuel rate hike bets.
Any signs of easing tensions and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to the US may weaken the USDInd as inflation concerns cool.

2. US February PCE report – Thursday 9th April

The February US personal income and spending report including the PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will offer key insight into the direction of price pressures.

Markets are forecasting PCE deflator YoY to remain unchanged in February with the core figure cooling to 2.9% from 3.1%.

Ultimately, any signs of rising price pressure may reinforce bets around higher US interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 23% probability of a 25-baisis point cut by December.

Beyond the PCE report, it will be wise to keep an eye on speeches by a host of Fed officials and other US data, including PMI’s which may influence the USDInd.

The USDInd may jump on signs of rising price pressures in the United States.
A cooler-than-expected PCE report could drag the USDInd lower.

3. US March CPI – Friday 10th April

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will offer a key read on inflation amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (March 2026 vs. March 2025) to rise 3.4% from 2.4%
CPI month-on-month to rise 1.0 from 0.3%
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.7% from 2.5%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2%

Signs of conflict-induced inflation may boost expectations of the Fed hiking rates.

4. Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is respecting a bullish channel on the daily charts.

A solid breakout and daily close above 100.00 could signal a move back toward 100.70 and 101.00.
Sustained weakness below 100.00 could see prices decline back toward 99.00 and 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Apr

WTI oil prices surged by 11%, breaking above 111 dollars per barrel

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, the US stock markets showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.11%. Despite the negative finish, the market managed to significantly trim the losses recorded in the first half of the session. A reason for local optimism was the report that Iran, together with Oman, is developing a technical protocol for monitoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This news gave investors hope for a partial restoration of trade routes, which somewhat cooled panic sentiment. In the corporate sector, the main focus was on Tesla, whose shares plunged 5% after the release of disappointing electric vehicle delivery data for the first quarter of 2026.

On Thursday, the Mexican peso (MXN) lost the progress achieved the day before, weakening to 17.88 per dollar. Fundamental pressure on the peso intensified due to the actions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). At its latest meeting, the regulator resumed its easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision was made by majority vote (3 to 2) amid clear signs of a slowdown in the Mexican economy at the start of 2026. The fact that the central bank cut rates despite accelerating inflation signals a prioritization of economic growth over price stability, reducing the peso’s attractiveness for carry‑trade strategies.

European stock markets mostly dropped yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.69%. The shift in sentiment occurred after Donald Trump’s address, which did not provide the expected specifics on de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Traders also took into account the factor of the long weekend, as European exchanges will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations, prompting many market participants to close positions in advance.

On Thursday, the Swiss franc (CHF) traded at 0.80 per US dollar, holding near its lowest levels since mid‑January amid the dominance of the US currency as the world’s primary safe haven. Despite the franc’s traditional status as a defensive asset, investors are favoring the dollar. Core inflation in Switzerland accelerated in March to an annual high of 0.3%, which slightly eased pressure on the SNB regarding policy easing, as rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf have begun to offset the restraining effect of the strong national currency on import costs.

On Thursday, silver prices (XNG) collapsed by nearly 5% to 71 dollars per ounce, marking a total decline of more than 20% since the start of the conflict on February 28. The sharp plunge in the precious metal was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar after Donald Trump’s address, in which he promised to deliver an “extremely strong strike” on Iran in the coming weeks instead of the de‑escalation plan expected by the markets. The absence of a clear exit strategy from the war and Tehran’s denial of rumors about requesting a ceasefire forced investors to seek refuge in the US currency, which traditionally puts downward pressure on dollar‑denominated assets.

WTI crude prices surged by 11%, breaking above 111 dollars per barrel. This is the highest level in almost four years. An even more dramatic situation unfolded with the North Sea Brent blend, whose price broke above 140 dollars per barrel, approaching the historical record of 2008. Such a sharp spike occurred as markets reassessed the scale of threats to global supply due to the escalation of the military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The main catalyst for the rally was Donald Trump’s tough statements, in which he promised to intensify strikes on Iran’s military and energy infrastructure in the coming weeks if Washington’s conditions are not met. Tehran responded with counter‑threats, instantly erasing yesterday’s optimism. Against this backdrop, the United Kingdom initiated large‑scale negotiations with dozens of countries to form an international coalition to ensure the security of trade routes. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance is urgently considering the possibility of increasing production quotas to calm market panic. However, experts warn that in the short term, even additional oil volumes will not reach consumers as long as physical access to key regional terminals remains blocked or under threat of attack.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) showed negative dynamics on Thursday, falling below 2.81 dollars per MMBtu. Quotes approached the lows of August 2025, sharply contrasting with the rally in the oil market. The main driver of the decline was the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which recorded a larger‑than‑expected increase in storage inventories. During the reporting week, energy companies injected 36 billion cubic feet of gas, significantly exceeding both the figure for the same period last year (30 billion) and the five‑year average (only 4 billion). At the moment, total US gas inventories have reached 1.865 trillion cubic feet. This is 5.4% above last year’s level and 3% above the five‑year average. Such a surplus creates a reliable “safety cushion” for the US domestic market, offsetting the impact of global geopolitical instability.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.06%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) slightly strengthened to 6.88 per dollar, although the pace of growth slowed compared to the previous session. Investors cautiously welcomed the news that Iran and Oman are developing a protocol for “transit monitoring” through the Strait of Hormuz, giving hope for partial resumption of shipping. Despite diplomatic efforts, China’s domestic economic data for March reflected a noticeable cooling of activity. According to a RatingDog report, the composite PMI fell to 51.5 from February’s 55.4, with a slowdown recorded in both the manufacturing sector (50.8) and services (52.1).

S&P 500 (US500) 6,582.69 +7.37 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,504.67 −61.07 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 23,168.08 −130.81 (−0.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,436.29 +71.50 (+0.69%)

USD Index 100.03 +0.37% (+0.38%)

News feed for: 2026.04.03

Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3); – JPY (HIGH)
China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3); – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD (HIGH)
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3); – USD (HIGH)
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3). – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Apr

GBP/USD: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Pound Selling

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD stabilised around 1.3227 on Friday following a sharp decline the previous day. Rising geopolitical tensions have weighed on the pound following fresh statements from US President Donald Trump. Increased military rhetoric towards Iran and the lack of clarity regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a jump in oil prices and heightened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additional pressure on the pound stems from the UK’s heavy reliance on energy imports and concerns about public finances. Yields on British government bonds have risen in tandem with energy prices, adding further strain on the currency.

Overall, market dynamics are unfolding in accordance with a classic risk-off scenario. Rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks are weighing on most assets, while the US dollar remains the key safe-haven currency.

Sterling had already fallen approximately 1.9% against the dollar in March amid fears of an energy shock.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3250 level, currently extending down to 1.3180. A short-term move towards 1.3250 is expected. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3300, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3100. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3254. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3100. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range may trigger a rebound to 1.3300. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under sustained pressure as President Trump’s escalated military rhetoric towards Iran and the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher, bolstering safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The UK’s energy import dependence and fragile public finances leave sterling particularly vulnerable in this risk-off environment. Having already lost nearly 2% in March, the pound faces continued headwinds, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Near-term stabilisation is possible, but any sustained recovery would likely require a tangible de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a shift in broader risk sentiment.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Apr

Investor optimism remains supported by signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the US stock markets ended with a powerful rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.16%. Investor optimism at the beginning of April was fueled by signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. Statements by Donald Trump that Iran had officially requested a ceasefire, and his readiness to withdraw troops within several weeks, provided the security of the Strait of Hormuz is ensured, became the key catalyst for the rally. This led to a sharp reduction of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, easing pressure on capital markets. However, the overall positive picture was overshadowed by a 15.6% drop in Nike shares – investors reacted extremely negatively to the company’s weak revenue guidance, which raised concerns about the sustainability of consumer demand in the retail sector.

The CAD strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar. The country’s manufacturing sector showed stagnation in March: the PMI fell to the critical level of 50.0. Zero growth is accompanied by a sharp increase in production costs and growing anxiety among Canadian manufacturers regarding possible trade tariffs from the United States. Such uncertainty in trade policy limits the recovery potential of the Canadian currency, despite the temporary calm in the Persian Gulf.

The Mexican peso showed a confident recovery, reaching 17.8 per US dollar. The main driver of growth was the return of global risk appetite amid signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. After an extremely volatile March, when the currency suffered from massive unwinding of carry-trade positions and investor flight into safe-haven assets, the weakening of the US dollar allowed the peso to recoup a significant portion of its losses.

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell by about 2.0%, settling at 66,512 dollars. The digital assets market reacted to the emergency address of US President Donald Trump to the nation, in which he summarized the interim results of “Operation Epic Fury.” Despite the overall rhetoric about the mission nearing completion, Trump threatened Iran with an “extremely strong strike” in the next two to three weeks if Tehran does not comply with Washington’s conditions.
European stock markets showed a sharp rise yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.73%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 2.10%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 3.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.85% higher.

On Wednesday, the US WTI crude oil futures ended trading at 99.60 dollars per barrel, recording a long-awaited drop below the psychological threshold of 100 dollars. Early April was marked by a wave of cautious optimism following Donald Trump’s statements about a possible end to the military operation in Iran within two to three weeks. The market reacted sensitively to news that Iranian leader Masoud Pezeshkian had officially requested a ceasefire, giving investors hope for de-escalation of the most acute energy crisis in recent years. Despite diplomatic glimmers, the US administration maintains a tough stance, setting an uncompromising condition: any peace talks will begin only after the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and recognized as safe for international shipping. This strategic waterway remains the main point of tension, as its blockade led to a record volume of oil fund trading at the end of March.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed 1.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 2.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 2.24%.

The NZD resumed its decline, falling to 0.571 US dollars and interrupting a two-day recovery. The main pressure factor was investor disappointment after Donald Trump’s prime-time address to the nation. Despite statements that the goals of “Operation Epic Fury” are almost achieved, the US President did not present a concrete plan for an immediate ceasefire. Although the RBNZ traditionally tries to “ignore” temporary price spikes, Breman made it clear that if inflation becomes persistent, the bank will have to raise interest rates again to prevent inflation expectations from rising.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,575.32 +46.80 (+0.72%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,565.74 +224.23 (+0.48%)

DAX (DE40) 23,298.89 +618.85 (+2.73%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,364.79 +188.34 (+1.85%)

USD Index 99.56 -0.40% (-0.40%)

News feed for: 2026.04.02

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED)
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2) – NOK (HIGH)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2) – XNG (HIGH)
Mexico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2) – MXN (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Apr

USD/JPY – Yen Weakens Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.39 on Thursday, as the yen weakened amid conflicting signals from Donald Trump on a possible de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. The situation continues to support the US dollar while weighing on the yen.

The US currency strengthened following reports that the operation in Iran is “close to completion” and could achieve its goals in the coming weeks. However, these statements were accompanied by warnings of a potential escalation in hostilities. At the same time, Trump emphasised that diplomatic contacts are ongoing, keeping investors cautious and maintaining heightened attention to geopolitical risks.

For Japan, the situation remains sensitive: the country relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, and fuel prices reached record levels in March, although they have since eased slightly supported by government subsidies.

New Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada has signalled a preference for a cautious, data-driven approach. He joins the council ahead of the 27–28 April meeting, where markets currently price in a probability of a rate hike at approximately 70%.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 159.10. The range is expected to expand to 159.50 today, followed by a decline to 157.70. An upside breakout could lead to a correction to 160.40, after which a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued move towards 156.00. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, supporting the potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming an advance towards 159.50 and is likely to reach the target today. Following this, a downward wave to 157.70 (testing from below) is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this structure, with its signal line above 80 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued short-term downside potential.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains in positive territory, with conflicting signals from the US over Middle East de-escalation creating an uncertain backdrop that favours the dollar over the yen. While reports of progress in the Iran operation have supported the greenback, ongoing diplomatic contacts and warnings of escalation keep markets on edge. Japan’s sensitivity to oil price fluctuations adds to yen pressure, although government subsidies provide partial relief. With a new BoJ board member advocating a cautious approach and markets pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April meeting, the yen’s near-term trajectory will likely depend on both geopolitical developments and upcoming policy signals from Tokyo. Technical indicators point to a possible short-term correction lower.

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