28 Apr

The World’s Most Underrated Investment Frontier

Source: Stephen McBride (4/27/26) 

Stephen McBride of RiskHedge shares what he believes is one of the most criminally underrated investments today.

RiskHedge publisher Dan Steinhart and I just got back from an epic journey. We crisscrossed the country, hitting five major cities and meeting with 40 of the most brilliant minds working on groundbreaking tech.

We saw pint-sized nuclear reactors, satellites that harvest fuel from thin air, drones delivering boar semen to far-flung corners of Africa (no joke), and spacecraft returning from orbit with tiny payloads worth a fortune.

I don’t embark on these grueling trips—logging tens of thousands of air miles and leaving my better half to wrangle our trio of kids solo—just for kicks. I do it because it lets me spot game-changing trends before they hit the mainstream, positioning us to cash in ahead of the pack.

Based on what I witnessed, I’m convinced one massively overlooked investment play is… the ocean.

During our whirlwind tour, we sat down with a half-dozen maritime outfits, including trailblazing defense tech firm Anduril. A lot of the juiciest prospects are still under wraps, but you can dive into some of them right now.

We just added an ocean disruptor to our Disruption_X portfolio. Today, I’m sharing the memo I fired off to Disruption_X members when we pulled the trigger.

The ocean is a multitrillion-dollar economy on the cusp of being unleashed. Invest accordingly.

My buddy and econ whiz Tyler Cowen digs framing stuff as “overrated” or “underrated.”

I’m a huge fan of viewing investment plays through this “overrated, underrated” prism. It helps you spot hidden edges you can pounce on in markets, business, and life.

The ocean is a ridiculously underrated frontier right now.

You’re reading this piece courtesy of the ocean. The “cloud” is really underwater. North of 95% of internet data—your emails, bank transfers, and ChatGPT queries—zips through a web of roughly 400 fiber-optic cables snaking along the seafloor.

Over 90% of your worldly goods—from the phone in your pocket to the kicks on your feet to the gas in your ride—got to you by sea.

Yet the ocean stays off our radar. Get this: We’ve mapped more of Mars than our own seabed. Upwards of 80% of the ocean is still uncharted!

For investors, ocean tech is like stumbling onto a whole new continent. A bona fide frontier and blue-world economy waiting to be built—with fresh plays spanning self-sailing ships, port security, and underwater data centers.

The drama in the Strait of Hormuz is making us all sit up and take notice of the ocean.

We erected the entire global economy on seas we can’t truly lock down.

Some have floated the idea of battleships chaperoning cargo vessels to guarantee safe passage through the Strait. This won’t cut it long-term. Even if you managed it for a bit, America doesn’t have the fleet to sustain it.

Last year, America cranked out a measly five ships. China launched 1,794. A single Chinese shipyard now outproduces the whole US maritime sector combined.

The bigger issue: The ocean, even the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, is too vast for humans to police solo.

Colombian authorities recently nabbed a totally unmanned “narco-sub.” Tricked out with a Starlink dish, it was built to shuttle 1.5 tons of blow over 800 miles. I’d wager for every drug boat busted, at least 10 slip through. There’s just no way for human crews to patrol the sprawling ocean.

Nowadays, checking out an underwater pipeline or cable means ponying up for a colossal, crewed ship that runs $200,000 a day. No shock that “stuff” in the ocean only gets a once-over every year or two.

This will only worsen as the ocean economy balloons. And bad actors have already taken note.

Picture trying to snag a coffee, but the card reader goes kaput.

You try to ring your family to see what’s up, and the line’s dead.

This nightmare played out for 14,000 folks on the Matsu Islands near Taiwan. Chinese vessels sliced their subsea cables, plunging the island into a weeklong digital blackout.

The global lattice of underwater internet cables could stretch to the moon and back twice. They’re sitting ducks. Taiwan has had its internet cables severed nearly 30 times in recent years. Data pipelines in the Baltic Sea have been cut, too.

America’s tech titans—Meta Platforms Inc. (META:NASDAQ), Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NASDAQ), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT:NASDAQ), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ)—now bankroll over 70% of new underwater data cables.

Meta is currently laying the world’s longest submarine cable. Project Waterworth will run 31,000 miles and cost $10 billion.

If you’re going to drop billions on building the underwater backbone of the AI economy…

You’re also going to shell out billions to safeguard it.

Throwing more warm bodies on boats isn’t how you do this. The only way to scale is to make it self-driving. Put another way: the ocean has to police itself.

Just as flying drones are reshaping land warfare, drone boats and subs are already redefining combat at sea.

Ukraine has no navy but still runs the Black Sea with low-cost, self-driving hardware, including its “Sea Baby” drone boats. Ukraine has sunk or crippled a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and has driven the surviving ships into retreat.

Now imagine what unfolds as those vehicles get smarter, speedier, and stealthier.

The US Navy plans to have 130 crewless ships on the water this year. Inside of five years, I’d bet we’ll see 100X—or even 1,000X—more.

The ocean is a trillion-dollar economy waiting for robots to unlock it. The high seas have been our biggest blind spot. And for disruption investors like us, blind spots spell opportunity.

Want to dig deeper into disruptive megatrends?

If my years of globetrotting to meet the folks building the future have taught me one thing, it’s this: The fattest opportunities never look obvious at first blush.

They crop up in the spots most investors aren’t clocking yet, like the ocean.

If you want to ride shotgun as I unearth more disruptive megatrends in real time, you can sign up for my free letter, The Jolt.

In it, I dish on what I’m seeing in the trenches, which ideas I’m tracking, and where I think the most lucrative plays are bubbling up next.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Opinions Stock Market News
28 Apr

European stock markets continue a prolonged decline. Oil prices continue to rise slowly

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the US stock market showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.12%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 0.20%. Investors are balancing between expectations for tech‑giant earnings and worrying signals from the energy market, where oil prices added another 2% despite diplomatic maneuvering around the Strait of Hormuz. The high‑tech sector became the main engine of growth, fueled by the AI and microchip frenzy: Nvidia jumped 4%, reinforcing its status as the favorite in the AI race ahead of key earnings this week. Investors are preparing for a “super‑week” that will set the trend for the entire next month. The main events will be central‑bank meetings led by the US Federal Reserve, as well as financial results from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. While the tech sector and financial companies show resilience, allowing indices to remain near record highs, inflation risks linked to the ninth week of the oil shock remain the main barrier to broad market growth.

The Mexican peso (MXN) retreated from its six‑month highs, stabilizing at 17.4 per US dollar. The main driver of the currency’s weakness was fresh inflation data that came in below expectations, giving the Bank of Mexico room for further monetary easing. Annual inflation in Mexico in the first half of April slowed to 4.53%. Even more notable was the decline in core inflation to a five‑month low of 4.27%. These figures confirm that the regulator’s recent unexpected decision to cut rates to 6.75% (a four‑year low) was justified and aimed at supporting domestic growth.

European stock markets continue a prolonged decline: Monday marked the sixth consecutive session of losses. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.56%. Although news of a new diplomatic proposal from Iran via Pakistani intermediaries brought a glimmer of hope, the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked. Oil and gas shipments remain paralyzed, keeping fuel prices at levels that threaten Eurozone price stability. Under these conditions, traders are almost certain that the ECB will keep rates unchanged this week, and a significant part of the market is pricing in further rate hikes this quarter to contain inflationary risks.

On Monday, the oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped more than 2%, reaching 96.5 dollars per barrel. The dramatic rise in prices is driven by the effective paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz – a key global energy artery. Despite the formal ceasefire in place since early April, mutual naval blockades have nearly halted tanker traffic in the region. The situation is worsened by the diplomatic deadlock between Washington and Tehran. The IEA describes the current events as the most unprecedented supply shock in the history of observations. The ninth week of the conflict has led not only to raw‑material shortages in key markets but also to rising risks of a global recession.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.20%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. The labor‑market situation in New Zealand in March 2026 showed temporary resilience: employment rose by 0.3%, reaching a 14‑month high of 2.35 million people. This increase was the result of the delayed effect of low interest rates that previously supported businesses, but the overall picture remains troubling. Despite recovering 14,600 jobs since last summer, current employment levels are still 39,000 below those of two years ago. But the positive March dynamics are already facing severe macroeconomic challenges. The sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict has begun to undermine economic activity at the end of Q1. Business confidence in the country has collapsed to mid‑2024 lows, as rising costs erode company profits and force them to begin cutting staff.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,173.91 +8.83 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,167.79 −62.92 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 24,083.53 −45.45 (−0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,321.09 −57.99 (−0.56%)

USD Index 98.48 −0.06 (−0.06%)

News feed for: 2026.04.28

  • Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
  • Japan BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
  • US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 Apr

Yen Gains Support Following Bank of Japan Decision

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY edged lower on Tuesday, touching 159.26.

The Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% per annum, as widely expected. At the same time, it raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.8%, up from 1.9% previously, while downgrading its GDP growth outlook to 0.5% from 1.0%. These revisions reflect the likely economic consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Investors are also monitoring developments surrounding Iran. Tehran has sent a new proposal to the US, but disagreements over the nuclear programme remain a key obstacle.

An additional factor is the stance of Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary and emphasised increased coordination with the US on foreign exchange policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 159.36 level and is moving lower towards 158.90. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible rebound towards 159.88 and potentially 160.77. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, indicating the potential for further short-term downside before a recovery.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is developing a move lower towards 158.90. A rebound towards 159.88 may follow, with a possible extension to 160.77. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has found some support following the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, despite the BoJ leaving rates unchanged. The key takeaway for markets was the upward revision to inflation forecasts – from 1.9% to 2.8% –driven by the Middle East conflict, alongside a downgrade to GDP growth expectations. This suggests the BoJ is acknowledging persistent price pressures while balancing weaker economic activity. Additionally, Finance Minister Katayama’s renewed commitment to currency intervention and US-Japan policy coordination has helped support the yen. Technically, USD/JPY may see further short-term downside towards 158.90 before a potential rebound. The overall direction will depend on geopolitical developments and any further signals from Japanese authorities regarding intervention.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Apr

Brent and WTI remain at extremely high levels, fueling global inflation

By JustMarkets 

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.16% (weekly result -0.39%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.80% (weekly result +0.67%). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 1.95% (weekly result +2.41%). This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50-3.75% range while the regulator analyzes new inflation risks caused by the surge in oil prices. This meeting will be symbolic, as it will likely be Jerome Powell’s last as Fed Chair before his term ends on May 15. Analysts expect cautious rhetoric and a signal that the rate‑cutting cycle will be paused until the new Chair officially takes office.

The US economic calendar will also include key data, most notably the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP. Growth is expected to accelerate sharply to 2.1% compared to the modest 0.5% at the end of last year, though experts warn this may be temporary due to one‑off increases in government spending. Investors will also closely watch the PCE Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core prices in March are expected to rise by 0.3%, slightly below February’s reading, while personal spending is projected to increase by 0.9%.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its rate at 2.25% this week, closely monitoring the impact of the Strait of Hormuz conflict on the national economy.

On Friday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.11% (weekly -1.05%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.84% (weekly -1.88%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.09% (weekly -3.11%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.75% (weekly -2.71%). Europe faces a busy week with major central‑bank decisions and key GDP and inflation releases. The focus will be on the ECB meeting, where analysts expect rates to remain unchanged. However, the hawkish tone from Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel suggests the pause may be temporary. The main source of concern will be the Eurozone inflation report. April inflation is expected to reach 2.9% – the highest in two and a half years. The primary driver is energy prices, which may show double‑digit growth due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in Iran. Against this backdrop, Q1 2026 GDP data is expected to confirm a very fragile recovery. The projected 0.2% growth for the Eurozone looks weak. In the UK, analysts expect the BoE to keep rates at 3.75%, though internal disagreement within the Monetary Policy Committee is possible.

Iran has expressed readiness to extend the temporary ceasefire and resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, Tehran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade of its ports, offering to move nuclear‑program discussions into a separate negotiation track. This led to a decline in WTI prices to 95 dollars per barrel after a brief spike to 96.7 dollars. Despite Monday’s local pullback, Brent and WTI remain at extremely high levels, fueling global inflation and forcing central banks to reconsider their strategies in favor of further tightening.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG) continued to fall, dropping by 3.6% to 2.52 dollars per MMBtu, hitting new lows not seen since October 2024. The main pressure factor remains the unusually mild spring, which has nearly eliminated heating demand while cooling demand has not yet begun. As a result, storage injections have accelerated significantly: as of April 24, inventories exceeded the seasonal norm by 8%, one percentage point higher than the previous week. The market shows a persistent bearish trend despite producers’ attempts to stabilize the situation. Over the past 18 days, US gas production has fallen by 4.1 billion cubic feet per day, reaching an 11‑year low of 108.1 billion cubic feet.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.52% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week down 0.86%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) slipped by 0.08%.

The Asia‑Pacific region enters a week of high volatility, with inflationary pressure and industrial‑sector resilience as key themes. In China, investors await PMI data, which is expected to show slowing factory‑activity growth. Meanwhile, from April 27 to 30, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will meet to set legislative priorities amid global instability. These political signals, combined with corporate earnings reports, will shape the dynamics of the yuan and mainland Chinese stock markets.

Australia is preparing for troubling inflation news. Analysts prognose a sharp jump in annual inflation to 4.7% (from 3.7% the previous month), significantly increasing pressure on the RBA. Producer‑price data and commodity‑cost dynamics will reveal how deeply the energy shock has penetrated the country’s economic structure and whether another round of monetary tightening should be expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,165.08 +56.68 (+0.80%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,230.71 −79.61 (−0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 24,128.98 −26.47 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,379.08 −77.93 (−0.75%)

USD Index 98.51 −0.26 (−0.26%)

News feed for: 2026.04.27

  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Apr

Gold Declines Amid Geopolitics, with Optimism Limited

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell below 4,700 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending last week’s losses. Pressure on the precious metal has intensified following the breakdown of attempts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting inflationary risks.

Donald Trump cancelled the US delegation’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations, while Tehran stated that it would not participate in dialogue under pressure or while under blockade.

Meanwhile, oil prices are rising. The Middle East conflict has now entered its ninth week. According to the IEA, it has triggered the largest supply shock in the energy market in recent history.

High inflationary risks are increasing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further, putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, remains cautious. The market still anticipates a gradual rate cut, but not in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,690 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,751 USD, while a downside break could lead to a move lower towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,710 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,680 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,610 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflationary risks. With the conflict now in its ninth week and the IEA describing it as the largest supply shock in energy markets, central banks are expected to maintain or even tighten policy rates for longer. This environment remains unfavourable for non-yielding gold. The Fed’s cautious stance offers little immediate relief. Technical indicators point firmly lower, with further downside towards 4,616–4,610 USD likely in the near term.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
26 Apr

Large Currency Speculators raised their Canadian Dollar & Euro Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US Dollar where, for example, a bet for the Euro is a bet that the Euro will rise versus the Dollar while a bet against the Euro will be a bet that the Euro will decline versus the Dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (19,438 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,306 contracts), Mexican Peso (8,747 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,558 contracts), British Pound (2,685 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (824 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,252 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-258 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-187 contracts) and Bitcoin (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar and Euro Bets Rebound This Week

Leading the Currency market speculator positioning this week were strong bets for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar.

First up, the Canadian Dollar positions jumped by 19,438 contracts this week following five consecutive weeks of strong declines. The recent weakness had brought the Canadian Dollar position from a bullish level on March 10 to the most bearish position of the past 18 weeks last week. This week’s rebound halts the slide in net positioning, but the Canadian Dollar position remains in an overall bearish standing at -58,834 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar exchange rate in the Currency markets has risen for three consecutive weeks and closed out this week around the 0.7332 exchange level. The CAD is trading right up against the 200-week moving average currently, and further movement above could see the Canadian Dollar test the 0.7400 major resistance that has capped prices many times dating back to June 2025.

The Euro speculator positioning this week jumped by over 15,000 contracts and follows up last week’s strong gain of over 33,000 contracts. These two weeks of strong gains have brought the overall net standing for the Euro back into bullish territory after spending one week (on April 7) in bearish territory. Previously, the Euro was consistently sitting in strong bullish territory for a time-frame from March 2025 until March 2026, with most weeks above +100,000 contracts. Since March 10th, the Euro positioning took a deep dive and culminated in a negative position on April 7 at -7,541 contracts. With a couple of strong weeks, the position is back above +41,324 contracts this week. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Euro continues to trade within its band of recent action between 1.1500 on the downside for support and 1.1900 on the upside, providing resistance. This week, the Euro fell modestly after three straight weeks of gains and closed out the week at 1.1745 against the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index speculator position continues to be in a small bullish level. The Dollar Index speculator bets have fallen by very small amounts over the past two weeks with declines of -341 contracts and this week’s -187 contracts shortfall. The net position is currently at 4,983 net contracts, and the US Dollar overall positioning has now been in bullish territory for six consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained within a band of support and resistance levels recently with support below at 96.75 and resistance above at 100.00. Currently, US Dollar Index price is trading around 98.36.

The Australian Dollar remains the most bullish of the speculator positioning of the Currencies currently. The AUD strength score (which is a score of today’s position compared to the past 3-years range) sits at an Extreme-Bullish reading at 91.2%. However, the Australian Dollar speculator position has been weakening a bit recently and this week fell for a third consecutive week. The overall net position is at its lowest level of the past six weeks at a total net position of 64,817 contracts but remains above the 2026 (so far) weekly average of 41,083 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Australian Dollar has continued to show its strength as it trades currently at 0.7146. The Aussie has gained for four consecutive weeks and remains near the top of its range and best trading levels since June 2022 (vs the USD).

Bitcoin leads the price gains in Currency performances this week

Bitcoin was the biggest winner on the week for currency price performance returns with a 5.13% increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.53% rise while the New Zealand Dollar came in next with a 0.33% gain. The British Pound was higher by 0.28%. The Canadian Dollar was up by 0.25%, and the US Dollar Index was higher by 0.23%. The Australian Dollar capped off the gainers this week with a 0.22% rise.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc edged lower by -0.15% followed by the Japanese Yen which fell by -0.16%. The Mexican Peso saw lower levels by -0.17%, and the Euro saw a modest shortfall by -0.19% on the week.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and Bitcoin (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent), Canadian Dollar (59 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.1 percent)
EuroFX (44.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (42.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.0 percent)
Bitcoin (90.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.1 percent)

US Dollar Index & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (29 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (15 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-24 percent), Japanese Yen (-15 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.4 percent)
EuroFX (-24.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-42.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-40.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.6 percent)
Bitcoin (15.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,170 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.526.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.245.46.3
– Net Position:4,983-5,814831
– Gross Longs:17,6178,0932,750
– Gross Shorts:12,63413,9071,919
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.640.753.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-30.13.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 15,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,018 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.558.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.368.75.6
– Net Position:41,324-83,66342,339
– Gross Longs:217,407459,84486,804
– Gross Shorts:176,083543,50744,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.552.763.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.321.04.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,724 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.965.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.744.011.1
– Net Position:-52,03956,839-4,800
– Gross Longs:63,086172,75224,374
– Gross Shorts:115,125115,91329,174
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.582.440.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.7-11.7-5.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -11,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,208 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.853.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.726.511.6
– Net Position:-94,46095,467-1,007
– Gross Longs:101,386188,72339,688
– Gross Shorts:195,84693,25640,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.775.034.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.612.59.2

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,097 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.178.412.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.532.222.0
– Net Position:-33,27342,255-8,982
– Gross Longs:8,37271,76211,159
– Gross Shorts:41,64529,50720,141
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.568.440.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-4.4-21.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 19,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,272 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.962.211.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.939.011.5
– Net Position:-58,83459,221-387
– Gross Longs:60,889158,81428,975
– Gross Shorts:119,72399,59329,362
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.141.744.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.941.7-24.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,075 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.836.416.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.270.26.2
– Net Position:64,817-93,19828,381
– Gross Longs:128,811100,16845,525
– Gross Shorts:63,994193,36617,144
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.27.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.90.8

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,276 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.684.94.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.325.55.4
– Net Position:-48,45448,983-529
– Gross Longs:7,91770,0563,915
– Gross Shorts:56,37121,0734,444
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.245.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.013.5-8.2

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,954 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.843.93.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.280.91.0
– Net Position:67,701-72,4154,714
– Gross Longs:101,30685,8026,695
– Gross Shorts:33,605158,2171,981
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.049.048.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.64.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,975 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.924.44.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.559.01.0
– Net Position:43,533-47,9794,446
– Gross Longs:89,92233,7985,849
– Gross Shorts:46,38981,7771,403
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.627.045.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.55.02.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,193 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.40.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.19.84.2
– Net Position:2,071-2,250179
– Gross Longs:17,0971941,233
– Gross Shorts:15,0262,4441,054
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.76.546.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-20.78.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
26 Apr

Speculator Extremes: SoyOil, SoyMeal, 2-Year & Bloomberg Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table). The 6-Week Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 28 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 169,081 net contracts this week with an advance of 22,135 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Soybean Meal

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Soybean Meal speculator level is now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance of 16 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 136,455 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -15,760 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 6 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 64,817 net contracts this week with a small retreat of -258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 15 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,071 net contracts this week with a decline of -122 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise higher by 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -73,195 net contracts this week with an increase of 59,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

2-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 2-Year speculator level at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -37 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,743,353 net contracts this week with a retreat of -39,547 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 1 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -19,423 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,171 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Extreme Bearish Leader

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was -48,454 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,178 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

Extreme Bearish Leader

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing as the GBP speculator level sits at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance of 14 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -52,039 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,685 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader

Next, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 10 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -155,841 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,872 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculator Bets Higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold


The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (4,095 contracts) with Gold (1,480 contracts), Steel (430 contracts), Silver (158 contracts) and Palladium (68 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a decrease by -67 contracts.

Metals Markets were overall lower in price performance this week.

The Precious Metals market’s price performances were mostly lower across the board this week. Steel was the only gainer and saw just a small edge higher by 0.16%.

On the downside, Copper dipped by -0.78% and was followed by Gold which fell by -1.83%. Platinum was lower by -3.77% followed by Palladium, which dropped by -3.92% on the week.

Silver was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -5.39% decline.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (88 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (85 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.3 percent)
Silver (26.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (26.5 percent)
Copper (88.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (84.6 percent)
Platinum (62.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.6 percent)
Palladium (85.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (88.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (86.3 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (15 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.4 percent)
Copper (7.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.4 percent)
Platinum (14.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.0 percent)
Palladium (-5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.0 percent)
Steel (-4.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,526 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.215.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.470.93.6
– Net Position:164,006-202,94038,934
– Gross Longs:212,89356,26152,223
– Gross Shorts:48,887259,20113,289
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.954.979.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.40.0-2.7

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,562 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.828.022.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.263.57.8
– Net Position:23,720-40,98517,265
– Gross Longs:33,23332,35726,253
– Gross Shorts:9,51373,3428,988
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.771.747.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.40.91.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,109 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.035.18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.462.74.1
– Net Position:59,204-69,33510,131
– Gross Longs:90,14287,85520,417
– Gross Shorts:30,938157,19010,286
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.410.766.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-5.8-4.3

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,603 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.727.612.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.668.64.9
– Net Position:20,536-25,3874,851
– Gross Longs:28,94017,1337,859
– Gross Shorts:8,40442,5203,008
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.441.154.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.6-11.4-15.8

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.135.515.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.735.39.0
– Net Position:-98530955
– Gross Longs:6,8845,3002,297
– Gross Shorts:7,8695,2701,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.417.953.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.58.8-20.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,550 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.965.71.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:1.796.00.4
– Net Position:11,980-12,415435
– Gross Longs:12,66526,882590
– Gross Shorts:68539,297155
– Long to Short Ratio:18.5 to 10.7 to 13.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.311.692.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.98.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
26 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds


The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (92,995 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (59,678 contracts), the Fed Funds (23,202 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (9,394 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (536 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-87,650 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-39,547 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-24,657 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-9,670 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Major Bond Markets were mostly lower in price performance this week.

In the Major Bond Markets, the Fed Funds with a small edge higher by 0.01% was the only market that saw a positive return on the week.

The three-month SOFR and the one-month SOFR were virtually unchanged on the week – each with a -0.01% change, followed by the 2-year bond, which was lower by -0.08%. The 5-year bond declined by -0.22%, while the 10-year note saw a reduction by -0.28%, and the long US Treasury Bond was down by -0.30%.

Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (90 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (65 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (65 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Bearish-Extreme territory. The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (55.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (64.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (59.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (90.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (74.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (65.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-43.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-31 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (18.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-36.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-32.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-30.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (33.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-43.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-32.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (18.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (22.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 23,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,761 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.063.02.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.263.61.9
– Net Position:-4,559-10,32514,884
– Gross Longs:353,2741,174,14849,750
– Gross Shorts:357,8331,184,47334,866
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.243.476.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-9.1-14.5

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -705,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -87,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -618,096 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.359.01.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.153.21.1
– Net Position:-705,746704,5661,180
– Gross Longs:1,839,7207,114,389139,054
– Gross Shorts:2,545,4666,409,823137,874
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.478.041.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.93.3

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -24,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,722 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.958.82.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.153.62.8
– Net Position:-70,37970,34237
– Gross Longs:308,764794,60537,285
– Gross Shorts:379,143724,26337,248
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.434.666.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-18.90.1

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,743,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,703,806 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.581.25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.645.83.4
– Net Position:-1,743,3531,660,12683,227
– Gross Longs:493,3503,811,446242,922
– Gross Shorts:2,236,7032,151,320159,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.013.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.539.5-14.1

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,532,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 92,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,625,745 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.779.96.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.257.64.9
– Net Position:-1,532,7501,448,72884,022
– Gross Longs:692,3305,191,123405,515
– Gross Shorts:2,225,0803,742,395321,493
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.935.632.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-20.6-20.9

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -790,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 9,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -800,365 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.377.98.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.563.96.8
– Net Position:-790,971726,88964,082
– Gross Longs:591,1034,060,023416,177
– Gross Shorts:1,382,0743,333,134352,095
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.262.943.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.632.313.0

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -73,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 59,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,873 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.280.68.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.272.313.5
– Net Position:-73,195201,369-128,174
– Gross Longs:247,8851,960,151200,473
– Gross Shorts:321,0801,758,782328,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.428.26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.6-27.7-16.1

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -83,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,116 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.375.113.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.976.17.5
– Net Position:-83,786-18,086101,872
– Gross Longs:185,7321,354,174236,593
– Gross Shorts:269,5181,372,260134,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.241.451.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.841.4-25.0

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -300,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -300,823 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.885.78.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.072.77.8
– Net Position:-300,287297,2493,038
– Gross Longs:132,1911,950,217181,384
– Gross Shorts:432,4781,652,968178,346
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.555.918.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.89.2-14.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
26 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas

By InvestMacro


Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (18,573 contracts) with Gasoline (3,350 contracts) and Brent Oil (322 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-14,239 contracts), Heating Oil (-2,152 contracts) and Bloomberg Index (-35 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Gasoline and Brent Oil lead Energy market price performance.

Energy Markets were mostly higher across the board this week with Gasoline being the leader in price performance with a 13.42% gain on the week. Brent Oil came in next with an 11.40% upswing, while Heating Oil saw a strong weekly gain of 8.87%. WTI Crude Oil was also higher and rose by 8.79% for the week while the Bloomberg Commodity Index advanced by 4.03% over the past 5 days.

On the downside, Natural Gas was the only market to see a negative price performance on the week with a modest -0.96% decline.

Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (50.6 percent) and Gasoline (50.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week. WTI Crude Oil (49.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.9 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (24.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (49.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (53.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Natural Gas (24.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.5 percent)
Gasoline (50.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (46.5 percent)
Heating Oil (50.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (53.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (0.6 percent)

 

Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Natural Gas (11.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Bloomberg Index (-62.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gasoline (-17.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Natural Gas (11.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.5 percent)
Gasoline (-17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-42.0 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-13.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-62.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-61.6 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 192,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -14,239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,541 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.144.03.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.555.42.1
– Net Position:192,302-226,71134,409
– Gross Longs:380,020873,31676,070
– Gross Shorts:187,7181,100,02741,661
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.247.568.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.515.2-27.7

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,656 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.736.54.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.828.33.3
– Net Position:-23,33420,9502,384
– Gross Longs:63,01893,28610,766
– Gross Shorts:86,35272,3368,382
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.951.269.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.514.59.2

 

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -168,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 18,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,888 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.435.33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.025.82.5
– Net Position:-168,315150,31617,999
– Gross Longs:242,027556,42658,043
– Gross Shorts:410,342406,11040,044
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.577.448.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-9.2-11.8

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 3,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,765 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.150.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.872.34.0
– Net Position:57,115-71,57214,457
– Gross Longs:79,546167,08127,799
– Gross Shorts:22,431238,65313,342
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.240.383.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.517.5-7.3

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,606 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.049.018.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.860.49.6
– Net Position:5,454-28,10022,646
– Gross Longs:37,085121,17546,321
– Gross Shorts:31,631149,27523,675
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.639.880.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.08.5-3.6

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -35 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,796 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.554.70.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.024.40.0
– Net Position:-74,83174,349482
– Gross Longs:109,438134,349521
– Gross Shorts:184,26960,00039
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.2 to 113.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.599.663.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-62.762.7-1.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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