InvestMacro

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (9,883 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,496 contracts), Gasoline (3,893 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,594 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-34,782 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-1,318 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil leads Energy Markets price performance

Leading the Energy Markets price performances this week was Heating Oil, which saw a gain by 9.63% over the past five days. Gasoline came in second with a 7.59% rise, while Brent Oil was third with a 6.16% increase. WTI Crude Oil was up by 4.11% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.46% advance.

On the downside, Natural Gas was the only decliner with a -8.10% drop.

All of these six Energy Markets have seen lower levels or negative price gains over the past 30 days, while over the past 90 days, all of the Energy Markets have been lower except for the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which has risen by 3.32% in the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bloomberg Index (51.6 percent), Gasoline (51.4 percent) and Heating Oil (50.4 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (11.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (26.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (11.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (22.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (24.8 percent)
Natural Gas (26.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (22.9 percent)
Gasoline (51.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.1 percent)
Heating Oil (50.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (51.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (52.8 percent)

Bloomberg Index & Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (38.0 percent) and Natural Gas (24.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-27.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-15.1 percent)
Natural Gas (24.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.7 percent)
Gasoline (4.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (3.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (38.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (40.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 75,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	54.0	2.6
– Net Position:	75,749	-104,622	28,873
– Gross Longs:	317,773	924,510	78,825
– Gross Shorts:	242,024	1,029,132	49,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.8	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	27.8	-11.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,532 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	36.0	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	26.7	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,649	22,442	2,207
– Gross Longs:	51,281	86,780	8,476
– Gross Shorts:	75,930	64,338	6,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	56.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-5.8	-46.6

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -165,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,803 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	23.5	2.3
– Net Position:	-165,307	149,504	15,803
– Gross Longs:	273,556	541,591	53,470
– Gross Shorts:	438,863	392,087	37,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.0	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-26.0	7.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 3,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,331 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.0	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	63.2	4.7
– Net Position:	58,224	-67,028	8,804
– Gross Longs:	101,734	132,929	23,619
– Gross Shorts:	43,510	199,957	14,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	44.8	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	1.4	-22.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,668 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	46.2	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.7	9.9
– Net Position:	5,262	-23,596	18,334
– Gross Longs:	49,554	127,375	45,673
– Gross Shorts:	44,292	150,971	27,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	44.1	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	6.0	-24.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,578 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	33.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-31,896	31,468	428
– Gross Longs:	84,392	91,955	487
– Gross Shorts:	116,288	60,487	59
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	8.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.0	-37.9	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

12 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (37,457 contracts) with Corn (36,803 contracts), Soybeans (36,180 contracts), Soybean Meal (13,702 contracts), Cotton (10,580 contracts), Wheat (5,274 contracts), Coffee (5,092 contracts) and Cocoa (1,731 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the decreases in weekly speculator bets were Live Cattle (-6,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,783 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-2,150 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Price Performances

This week’s Soft Commodities price performances were led by super strong performances from Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa jumped by 18.61% this week, followed by Coffee, which was higher by 12.13%. Next up, Cotton rose higher by 5.74%, while Wheat advanced by 5.42%, and Soybean Oil was also higher by over 5% with a 5.38% increase.

Soybean Meal was higher than 3% with a 3.46% rise, while Corn saw an advance by 2.56%. Soybeans rose by 1.84% on the week, while Lean Hogs was up marginally by 0.25%, and Sugar saw a minuscule uptick by 0.07%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was the only decliner on the week with a -1.60% decrease.

Cocoa and Coffee have been seeing strong trends higher as Cocoa is up by over 44% in the past 30 days, while Coffee is up by 25% in the past 30 days. Cocoa’s 90-day gain is now a whopping 97.72%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Live Cattle (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (39 percent) and the Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.9 percent)
Sugar (39.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.5 percent)
Coffee (48.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (91.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.4 percent)
Cocoa (9.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.2 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.0 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (9 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-34 percent), Corn (-27 percent) and Lean Hogs (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-40.0 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Coffee (9.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybeans (-20.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-45.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-32.8 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.7 percent)
Cocoa (3.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-33.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 100,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 36,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,177 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	44.9	10.2
– Net Position:	100,980	-67,654	-33,326
– Gross Longs:	478,153	700,793	141,480
– Gross Shorts:	377,173	768,447	174,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	46.9	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	24.8	31.5

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 37,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	41.0	7.5
– Net Position:	-59,273	55,415	3,858
– Gross Longs:	263,310	464,352	78,490
– Gross Shorts:	322,583	408,937	74,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	62.7	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.1	3.0

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 5,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,531 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	35.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	51.5	3.4
– Net Position:	25,623	-27,568	1,945
– Gross Longs:	59,414	62,308	7,876
– Gross Shorts:	33,791	89,876	5,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	51.5	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.5	31.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 36,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,627 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	59.6	7.2
– Net Position:	112,807	-85,585	-27,222
– Gross Longs:	215,618	495,676	43,415
– Gross Shorts:	102,811	581,261	70,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	33.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	20.8	2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 94,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,449 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	63.8	4.1
– Net Position:	94,666	-104,308	9,642
– Gross Longs:	150,422	305,646	35,851
– Gross Shorts:	55,756	409,954	26,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	30.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.8	-21.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,686 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	44.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	59.2	4.4
– Net Position:	62,388	-86,217	23,829
– Gross Longs:	169,619	266,258	50,121
– Gross Shorts:	107,231	352,475	26,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	39.3	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.4	38.2	-14.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,861 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	30.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	52.7	11.4
– Net Position:	81,668	-70,893	-10,775
– Gross Longs:	138,662	96,239	25,345
– Gross Shorts:	56,994	167,132	36,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	34.1	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.5	2.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,271 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	23.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-64,421	62,268	2,153
– Gross Longs:	67,415	130,907	22,710
– Gross Shorts:	131,836	68,639	20,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	23.1	27.3

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,848 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	34.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	65.0	2.6
– Net Position:	88,428	-95,539	7,111
– Gross Longs:	137,454	111,052	15,463
– Gross Shorts:	49,026	206,591	8,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	11.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.7	-11.0

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,460 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	44.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-12,729	11,372	1,357
– Gross Longs:	38,399	98,437	11,012
– Gross Shorts:	51,128	87,065	9,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	88.8	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.4	3.9

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 5,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,004 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	28.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-49,730	50,894	-1,164
– Gross Longs:	111,128	167,760	33,278
– Gross Shorts:	160,858	116,866	34,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	46.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	37.5	-17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Cotton Copper & USD Index lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday July 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 19 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 3,500 net contracts this week with a drop of -270 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

The Bitcoin speculator strength can be seen as hedging activity. We have seen over the past years that when the Bitcoin price goes up, speculator strength falls (and can be bearish extreme) and like the current moment – when the Bitcoin price is pressured lower, the speculator positions are extremely bullish. The typical role of speculators in most of the futures markets has been as trend-followers or momentum traders that buy when price goes up and sell when price goes down but the Bitcoin market (as well as some of the stock market indexes) has shown the speculators to take hedging stances as well.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the Cotton speculator level now at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was no change this week while the speculator position registered 88,428 net contracts this week with a rise of 10,580 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Copper speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decrease of -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 64,272 net contracts this week with a decline of -516 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week ans the USD Index speculator level is at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a lift of 34 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 13,269 net contracts this week with a gain of 253 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones-Mini speculator level sits at a 79 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 31 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 11,480 net contracts this week with a fall of -589 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the Lean Hogs speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -24 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -64,421 net contracts this week with a retreat of -2,150 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in tied as well for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The NZD speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -32 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -65,189 net contracts this week with a retreat of -1,909 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level now resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -29 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -2,775,954 net contracts this week with a gain of 100,586 contracts in the speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the FedFunds speculator level at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -354,253 net contracts this week with a retreat of -18,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Next, the British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the GBP speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -11 percentage points this week while the speculator net position was -87,903 net contracts this week with a boost of 14,244 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

10 Jul

The US and European stock indices are rising again amid renewed investor interest in the AI industry.

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains, finishing the trading session in the “green zone.” By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.81%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher yesterday, up 1.62%. The market recovery was driven by renewed investor interest in the technology sector, especially semiconductor manufacturers, whose shares once again saw strong demand. In particular, Micron and Sandisk shares rose by 5.2% and 7.6%, respectively, and the positive reception of SK Hynix’s US share offering – oversubscribed more than sevenfold – significantly strengthened confidence in the AI industry. An additional driver of growth was Meta, whose shares jumped 4% on news of plans to launch its own artificial intelligence chip as early as September.

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed to 3.37%, down from 3.94% in May and reaching its lowest level since December 2020. This result exceeded market expectations of 3.52%, allowing inflation to firmly settle within the Bank of Mexico’s target range (3% ± 1%). The monthly decline in consumer prices by 0.27% confirms the disinflation trend, giving the Bank of Mexico more flexibility regarding future monetary policy decisions.

European indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.89%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.90%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.14%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.16%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) entered a correction, falling below $ 72 per barrel. This occurred after a sharp 4.4% jump during the previous session, triggered by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The market is trying to assess real risks to global supply amid increasing strikes on military facilities and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite concerns, actual activity in the strait remains ambiguous: according to tracking systems, shipping has slowed significantly, although some tankers continue moving, often turning off transponders for safety. Traders remain cautious, as high price volatility reflects not so much current physical disruptions as a preventive market reaction to the risk of a full blockade of this strategically important waterway.

On Thursday, US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 4%, reaching $ 3.07 per MMBtu, the lowest level in six weeks. The main pressure factor was Freeport LNG’s announcement of planned maintenance at its Texas liquefaction facilities starting July 10, temporarily limiting export demand. The situation was worsened by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing a 61 billion cubic feet increase in inventories for the week ending July 3, significantly above the five‑year average of 51 billion cubic feet.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 gained 2.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.26%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose to 0.695 USD. The macroeconomic backdrop for the country remains restrained after the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Australia to 1.9% and warned that inflation would remain at 4%. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting, the consensus forecast suggests keeping the key rate at 4.35%. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a final rate hike by year‑end.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened to around 6.78 per dollar, continuing its upward trend and reaching a three‑week high. Investor confidence was boosted by actions from the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily reference rate at 6.7989, lowering it below the psychologically important 6.80 threshold for the first time since 2023. The market interpreted this step as a clear signal that the regulator is ready to allow further strengthening of the national currency and does not intend to actively resist market trends.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,543.64 +60.93 (+0.81%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,487.41 +139.02 (+0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 25,118.27 +220.82 (+0.89%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,472.45 -16.59 (-0.16%)

USD Index 100.94 -0.05 (-0.05%)

News feed for: 2026.07.10

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Jul

USD/JPY Falls as Yen Recovers Weekly Losses

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY fell to 161.67 on Friday, with the yen fully recovering its losses from the beginning of the week. Market participants are once again increasing expectations of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, following the national currency’s recent move to nearly 40-year lows.

Investors are also awaiting the release of official intervention data later this month to determine whether the Bank of Japan’s actions were behind the yen’s sharp – though brief – gains in recent weeks.

Fresh macroeconomic data has attracted additional attention. Japan’s producer prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, marking the fastest pace since March 2023. Cost pressures remain elevated due to the Middle East conflict and the significant weakening of the yen.

At the same time, the Japanese currency found support from lower oil prices following reports that the US and Iran intend to continue peace negotiations despite the recent escalation. The decline in oil prices prompted a retreat in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, while also easing concerns about rising import costs for Japan, which remains one of the largest buyers of Middle Eastern oil.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 161.57 level, currently extending up to 162.62. A decline towards 161.30 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 162.62, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 161.20, with a possible extension to 161.16. A move higher towards 162.62 is expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating increasing short-term upside momentum.

Conclusion

The yen has fully recovered its losses from the start of the week, supported by renewed expectations of potential Japanese intervention and lower oil prices following signs of US–Iran peace negotiations. Producer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict and currency weakness. However, falling oil prices eased concerns over Japan’s energy import costs and contributed to a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, USD/JPY may see further downside towards 161.30 in the near term, but the broader uptrend remains intact, with potential for a rebound towards 162.62 and beyond. The market’s focus now turns to official intervention data for confirmation of recent central bank activity.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jul

Fertilizers carry a hidden cost for soil’s crucial microbes – using less as prices rise might pay off for farms in unexpected ways

By Esther Ndumi Ngumbi, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Across North America, in places such as Illinois, Iowa and Texas, farmers are busy growing the crops the world depends on for food, fuel and fiber.

But as their tractors roll across fields, a pressing concern weighs heavily on many farmers: the rising cost of synthetic fertilizers, widely considered essential for crop production.

After an expensive spring, with the war in Iran restricting fertilizer and petroleum shipments and raising prices, farmers may be wondering whether they can cut back on fertilizer now and in the future to save money.

The answer has a lot to do with a hidden world beneath our feet, where billions of soil-dwelling, beneficial microbes help sustain productive, resilient and healthy crops and agricultural systems.

As a researcher working to uncover the hidden roles of beneficial soil microbes and understand how they improve crop productivity and strengthen plants’ resilience against drought and insect pests, I know that cutting down on fertilizers is not a bad thing. In fact, studies suggest that using less fertilizer can boost this natural workforce.

Plants do not grow alone

Soils hold a vast and extraordinarily diverse hidden world teeming with billions of microbes that are essential for sustaining life on Earth and supporting productive and resilient crops.

Plants including corn, soybeans, wheat and tomatoes form intimate and mutually beneficial relationships with these soil-dwelling microbes. Their partnerships help sustain both plant health and the microbial communities.

A notable group of beneficial soil microbes is arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria. These soilborne microbes can colonize plant roots, living around the roots, on the plant surface or even inside plant tissue.

A microscope image of fungi in and around a plant root — A microscope image using dye shows microbe filaments, known as hyphae, around a plant root, and arbuscular mycorrhizae fungi inside the root.
Rajarshi Rit/The University of Burdwan, CC BY

In exchange for shelter, nutrients and carbon-rich sugars that plants produce through photosynthesis, these microbes offer many benefits to plants. They improve plant health and growth, increase yields and enhance the plant’s water and nutrient uptake. They can also boost plants’ ability to withstand pathogens, plant-eating insects and diseases, and survive drought and flooding.

Research has shown that adding microbes, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, near plant roots can increase plant biomass by nearly 50%. That includes significantly increasing nitrogen absorption by about two-thirds and more than doubling phosphorus uptake, two of the most important nutrients for plant growth.

One analysis found that under drought stress, plants with beneficial microbes in or around their roots had nearly 50% higher growth than those without.

My own team’s research has shown that mycorrhizal fungi can alter chemicals released by plants in ways that are useful for repelling insects while attracting pollinators and insects’ natural enemies. These chemicals can also alert plant neighbors of dangers and threats.

An illustration showing the difference between crops with and without the fungi — Some of the ways arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, often referred to as AM or AMF, help plants thrive.
Catherine N. Jacott, Jeremy D. Murray and Christopher J. Ridout, 2017, CC BY

Soil microbes are also associated with many aspects of soil quality and health. They break down organic matter, cycle nutrients, suppress disease-causing pathogens and detoxify contaminants.

How fertilizers harm the microbe-plant relationship

Synthetic fertilizers have certainly played important roles in food and fiber production and increasing crop yields over the years. However, excessive fertilizer use can quietly harm these beneficial soil microbe communities, in addition to fueling water pollution.

Studies have shown that overfertilizing can weaken the underground partnerships between plants and microbes that are fundamental to helping plants access nutrients and tolerate stress. Too much nitrogen fertilizer can reduce the diversity and abundance of beneficial soil microbes.

Researchers have offered several explanations for why synthetic fertilizers harm soil microbes.

First, adding nutrients reduces the amount of carbon that plants send below ground to microbes. This can lead to the loss of some fungal species or favor microbes that contribute little to plant health.

An animation shows how plants send carbon to microbes in and around their roots. — MRIs and PET scans of corn plant roots over two hours track a short-lived carbon radioisotope. It shows how recently fixed carbon reaches microbes in the root system and surrounding soil. Three different ages of plants are included.
Sina R. Schultes, et al., 2025, CC BY

Second, adding synthetic fertilizers rich in phosphorus or nitrogen can disrupt the harmonious partnership between plants and microbes. That partnership involves a trade system in which plants provide microbes with sugars from photosynthesis while the microbes help plants acquire limited nutrients from the soil. When nutrients are abundant, plants may forgo the partnership. Ultimately, without an active partnership, fewer microbes will grow.

Third, adding synthetic fertilizer makes soil more acidic, which can inhibit arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and mycelial development. Research has shown that shifts in soil pH to higher acidity can reduce the growth of some microbes, undermining plant-microbe partnerships that have evolved over millions of years.

The effects of fertilizers on soils, soil microbial communities and beneficial microbe groups such as mycorrhizal fungi vary and are at times inconsistent. They can be affected by many factors, including agricultural management and farming practices, such as cover cropping or tilling, or the crop species and breeding history.

Fertilizing in economically strategic ways

With fertilizer costs high, I believe farmers, researchers and others involved in food production should use this moment to rethink how crops and soils are nourished.

The answer is not to abandon fertilizers but to find a balance between fertilizer use and nurturing the living soils and the billions of microbial communities that quietly sustain American and global agriculture.

In an era of extreme weather, climate uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and rising fertilizer costs, keeping soil healthy and nurturing the billions of microbes living there is not only necessary but also economically strategic.

About the Author:

Esther Ndumi Ngumbi, Assistant Professor, Department of Entomology; African-American Studies, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

09 Jul

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7% in reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, US stock indices showed mixed dynamics amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.28%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher yesterday by 0.27%. The S&P 500 and the industrial Dow Jones declined, reflecting investor concerns over rising energy prices following President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 received support from the semiconductor sector, which began recovering after recent sell‑offs.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging: Treasury yields rose, and the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the regulator’s readiness to raise rates further if inflation remains persistent. This put pressure on sectors sensitive to credit conditions: JPMorgan shares fell by 2.5%, and Visa by 1.3%. Shares of major tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft also declined due to investor doubts about the profitability of large‑scale spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its global growth expectations for the current year at 3%, only 0.1 percentage points below the April estimate. Such resilience of the global economy is attributed to successful adaptation to the consequences of the conflict with Iran, as well as significant inflows of investment into artificial intelligence technologies. The outlook for 2027 was revised upward – from 3.2% to 3.4%.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.23%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 2.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 1.66%. The yield on 10‑year German government bonds (Bunds) rose to 3.1%, the highest level since May 21, marking the longest upward streak since the beginning of the year. The main driver of the sell‑off in the bond market was concern about accelerating inflation amid a sharp rise in oil prices caused by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. This means the European Central Bank will have to keep interest rates high for a longer period. Markets are currently pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional tightening by the ECB this year, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike as early as September.

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7%, reaching 75.6 dollars per barrel. This jump was a reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: after President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran and threats of new military strikes, Tehran reported attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The situation worsened after Washington revoked exemptions for Iranian oil exports, raising concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy supplies passes.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.99%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.21%.

On Thursday, Australian stocks declined again, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses. The main pressure on the market came from the non‑energy mining sector, healthcare, processing industries, and financials, while investors remained cautious ahead of important inflation and producer price data in China. Negative sentiment was reinforced by a statement from the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Sarah Hunter, who warned that the country may need a period of slower economic growth and rising unemployment to combat inflation expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,482.71 -21.14 (-0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,348.39 -576.76 (-1.09%)

DAX (DE40) 24,897.45 -567.80 (-2.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,489.04 -176.84 (-1.66%)

USD Index 101.13 +0.27 (+0.27%)

News feed for: 2026.07.09

China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Jul

Middle East Tensions Weigh on Gold

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell to 4,032 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of decline. Pressure on the market intensified amid fears that a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies and accelerate inflation.

The US military confirmed that it has been striking targets in Iran for the second consecutive day, seeking to limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has announced preparations for a large-scale operation against American military bases in the region.

US President Donald Trump stated that, in his view, the ceasefire has effectively come to an end. He also warned of the possibility of further strikes against Iran and the imposition of an additional naval blockade.

Additional investor attention has been drawn to the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They showed that only a small proportion of the regulator’s representatives advocated a rate hike as early as June, with most participants remaining concerned about inflation risks.

The market continues to price in at least one Fed interest rate increase before the end of 2026, which limits gold’s upside potential despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,090 USD level. A decline to 4,018 USD and a subsequent rise to 4,088 USD have been completed. A further move lower towards 3,930 USD is expected, followed by a potential rebound to 4,055 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,150 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,090 USD level and is moving lower towards 3,977 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around 4,090 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation. US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threat of retaliation have escalated tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire effectively over. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes revealed a cautious central bank, with only a minority advocating an immediate rate hike, while most members remain vigilant about inflation risks. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, limiting gold’s appeal despite safe-haven demand. Technically, further downside towards 3,930 USD appears likely, with any recovery likely to be capped by ongoing geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

08 Jul

Pound Awaits Tighter Policy from Bank of England

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD declined to 1.3352 on Wednesday amid a general deterioration in the external environment and a decline in risk appetite. The escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain have prompted investors to move away from riskier assets.

Earlier, the pound had appeared more resilient, supported by oil prices rising above 72 USD per barrel and the associated inflationary risks. Market participants are currently pricing in approximately a 76% probability of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end, with the likelihood of tightening as early as November exceeding 50%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently confirmed that inflation remains on a path towards the 2% target but acknowledged that this process will take longer than previously expected. At the same time, the regulator does not see scope for reducing interest rates in the near future.

Political uncertainty in the UK has had a limited impact on the market so far. The favourite for the post of Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has yet to announce his candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer. However, investors believe that much of the domestic political risk has already been priced into the pound’s exchange rate.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is moving lower towards 1.3240. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from this range would open the way for a move towards 1.3480, while a downside breakout would suggest a decline towards 1.3290, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3090. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3360 level, currently extending down to 1.3340. A move higher towards 1.3360 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3320. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Sterling has retreated as deteriorating geopolitical conditions in the Middle East – including attacks on Gulf states and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz – have dampened risk appetite. The pound had previously found support from rising oil prices and market expectations of further Bank of England tightening, with a 76% probability of a rate hike priced in by year-end. Governor Bailey’s confirmation that inflation remains above target and that rate cuts are not imminent has reinforced the hawkish outlook. While domestic political uncertainty appears largely priced in, the pound’s near-term trajectory will depend on how geopolitical risks evolve. Technically, further downside towards 1.3240 and potentially 1.3090 appears likely in the medium term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

The United States carried out airstrikes on Iran after Iran’s attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The RBNZ raised the interest rate to 2.5%

By JustMarkets

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.45%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower yesterday by 1.16%. The technology sector came under strong pressure due to a sell‑off in semiconductor stocks. Investors focused on risks in the field of artificial intelligence: despite Samsung’s impressive results, the report failed to meet the market’s elevated expectations, which triggered declines in Micron (-4.7%), AMD (-6.5%), and Intel (-9.7%). An additional negative factor was reports that the Chinese company DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, which heightened concerns about future competition. Sentiment also deteriorated due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on tankers triggered a spike in oil prices, leading to higher Treasury yields and raising concerns about inflation.

In May 2026, the US trade deficit widened significantly, reaching 77.6 billion dollars compared with the revised April figure of 54.6 billion dollars. This result was the largest gap since March 2025 and was close to market expectations, which expected around 78.5 billion dollars. The sharp increase in the deficit was driven by simultaneous growth in imports and a decline in exports of goods and services. Analysts note that the current dynamics of foreign trade may negatively affect GDP figures in the second quarter, while uncertainty in trade policy persists amid ongoing annual trade reviews and tariff measures.

Data on Canada’s Ivey PMI for June 2026 confirm a slowdown in economic growth. The Index fell to 56.2 points from May’s 58.2, below analysts’ expectations of 59.1. This decline ended a three‑month series of index increases and marked its lowest reading since March of this year.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.13%.

On Tuesday, oil prices surged sharply, rising 5% and reaching 72 dollars per barrel for WTI. The main catalyst for the price spike was the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, where an attack occurred on three tankers, including a Qatari LNG carrier, once again threatening the security of a key energy corridor and raising concerns about supply disruptions. In response to the escalation, the US Treasury announced the revocation of a general license that just weeks earlier had temporarily allowed the sale of Iranian oil. This decision, made less than three weeks after the easing was introduced, effectively ends the recent sanctions exemptions.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.12%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.31%.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened to 0.571 USD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised the base rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. This decision became the first step toward monetary tightening in more than three years, highlighting the regulator’s determination to contain inflation without creating excessive pressure on economic activity. Markets reacted optimistically to the news, as the bank provided clear signals of a likely continuation of the rate‑hike cycle this year. At present, most economists expect at least one or two additional increases, and the probability of a similar move in October is already almost fully priced in.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar was trading near 0.694 USD, holding near its three‑month lows. Pressure on the Australian currency is driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Investors are massively shifting capital into the US dollar as a “safe haven,” especially after Washington carried out new strikes on Iran and revoked permission for Iranian oil exports, which once again triggered concerns about energy shortages and inflation risks. The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that current oil price spikes negatively affect consumer and business confidence, but emphasized the overall resilience of the national economy.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened to 6.79 per dollar, beginning a recovery after recent declines. The main driver of optimism was the policy of the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily fixing at 6.8077 – only 59 points below analysts’ outlooks. Such a minimal gap between the official rate and market estimates indicates the regulator’s intention to actively curb the weakening of the national currency, which became a signal of increased state support for the yuan.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,503.85 -33.58 (-0.45%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,925.15 -130.76 (-0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 25,465.25 -352.64 (-1.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,665.88 +14.11 (+0.13%)

USD Index 101.13 +0.27 (+0.27%)

News feed for: 2026.07.08

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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