InvestMacro

Gold Declines Amid Geopolitics, with Optimism Limited

Gold fell below 4,700 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending last week’s losses. Pressure on the precious metal has intensified following the breakdown of attempts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting inflationary risks.

Donald Trump cancelled the US delegation’s trip to Islamabad for negotiations, while Tehran stated that it would not participate in dialogue under pressure or while under blockade.

Meanwhile, oil prices are rising. The Middle East conflict has now entered its ninth week. According to the IEA, it has triggered the largest supply shock in the energy market in recent history.

High inflationary risks are increasing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further, putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, remains cautious. The market still anticipates a gradual rate cut, but not in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,690 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,751 USD, while a downside break could lead to a move lower towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,710 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,680 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,610 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflationary risks. With the conflict now in its ninth week and the IEA describing it as the largest supply shock in energy markets, central banks are expected to maintain or even tighten policy rates for longer. This environment remains unfavourable for non-yielding gold. The Fed’s cautious stance offers little immediate relief. Technical indicators point firmly lower, with further downside towards 4,616–4,610 USD likely in the near term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

26 Apr

Large Currency Speculators raised their Canadian Dollar & Euro Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US Dollar where, for example, a bet for the Euro is a bet that the Euro will rise versus the Dollar while a bet against the Euro will be a bet that the Euro will decline versus the Dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (19,438 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,306 contracts), Mexican Peso (8,747 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,558 contracts), British Pound (2,685 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (824 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,252 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-258 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-187 contracts) and Bitcoin (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar and Euro Bets Rebound This Week

Leading the Currency market speculator positioning this week were strong bets for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar.

First up, the Canadian Dollar positions jumped by 19,438 contracts this week following five consecutive weeks of strong declines. The recent weakness had brought the Canadian Dollar position from a bullish level on March 10 to the most bearish position of the past 18 weeks last week. This week’s rebound halts the slide in net positioning, but the Canadian Dollar position remains in an overall bearish standing at -58,834 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar exchange rate in the Currency markets has risen for three consecutive weeks and closed out this week around the 0.7332 exchange level. The CAD is trading right up against the 200-week moving average currently, and further movement above could see the Canadian Dollar test the 0.7400 major resistance that has capped prices many times dating back to June 2025.

The Euro speculator positioning this week jumped by over 15,000 contracts and follows up last week’s strong gain of over 33,000 contracts. These two weeks of strong gains have brought the overall net standing for the Euro back into bullish territory after spending one week (on April 7) in bearish territory. Previously, the Euro was consistently sitting in strong bullish territory for a time-frame from March 2025 until March 2026, with most weeks above +100,000 contracts. Since March 10th, the Euro positioning took a deep dive and culminated in a negative position on April 7 at -7,541 contracts. With a couple of strong weeks, the position is back above +41,324 contracts this week. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Euro continues to trade within its band of recent action between 1.1500 on the downside for support and 1.1900 on the upside, providing resistance. This week, the Euro fell modestly after three straight weeks of gains and closed out the week at 1.1745 against the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index speculator position continues to be in a small bullish level. The Dollar Index speculator bets have fallen by very small amounts over the past two weeks with declines of -341 contracts and this week’s -187 contracts shortfall. The net position is currently at 4,983 net contracts, and the US Dollar overall positioning has now been in bullish territory for six consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained within a band of support and resistance levels recently with support below at 96.75 and resistance above at 100.00. Currently, US Dollar Index price is trading around 98.36.

The Australian Dollar remains the most bullish of the speculator positioning of the Currencies currently. The AUD strength score (which is a score of today’s position compared to the past 3-years range) sits at an Extreme-Bullish reading at 91.2%. However, the Australian Dollar speculator position has been weakening a bit recently and this week fell for a third consecutive week. The overall net position is at its lowest level of the past six weeks at a total net position of 64,817 contracts but remains above the 2026 (so far) weekly average of 41,083 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Australian Dollar has continued to show its strength as it trades currently at 0.7146. The Aussie has gained for four consecutive weeks and remains near the top of its range and best trading levels since June 2022 (vs the USD).

Bitcoin leads the price gains in Currency performances this week

Bitcoin was the biggest winner on the week for currency price performance returns with a 5.13% increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.53% rise while the New Zealand Dollar came in next with a 0.33% gain. The British Pound was higher by 0.28%. The Canadian Dollar was up by 0.25%, and the US Dollar Index was higher by 0.23%. The Australian Dollar capped off the gainers this week with a 0.22% rise.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc edged lower by -0.15% followed by the Japanese Yen which fell by -0.16%. The Mexican Peso saw lower levels by -0.17%, and the Euro saw a modest shortfall by -0.19% on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and Bitcoin (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent), Canadian Dollar (59 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.1 percent)
EuroFX (44.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (42.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.0 percent)
Bitcoin (90.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.1 percent)

US Dollar Index & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (29 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (15 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-24 percent), Japanese Yen (-15 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.4 percent)
EuroFX (-24.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-42.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-40.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.6 percent)
Bitcoin (15.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,170 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	26.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	45.4	6.3
– Net Position:	4,983	-5,814	831
– Gross Longs:	17,617	8,093	2,750
– Gross Shorts:	12,634	13,907	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	40.7	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-30.1	3.5

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 15,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,018 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	58.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	68.7	5.6
– Net Position:	41,324	-83,663	42,339
– Gross Longs:	217,407	459,844	86,804
– Gross Shorts:	176,083	543,507	44,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	52.7	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	21.0	4.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,724 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	65.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	44.0	11.1
– Net Position:	-52,039	56,839	-4,800
– Gross Longs:	63,086	172,752	24,374
– Gross Shorts:	115,125	115,913	29,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.4	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-11.7	-5.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -11,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,208 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	53.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.7	26.5	11.6
– Net Position:	-94,460	95,467	-1,007
– Gross Longs:	101,386	188,723	39,688
– Gross Shorts:	195,846	93,256	40,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	75.0	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	12.5	9.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,097 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	78.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	32.2	22.0
– Net Position:	-33,273	42,255	-8,982
– Gross Longs:	8,372	71,762	11,159
– Gross Shorts:	41,645	29,507	20,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.4	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-4.4	-21.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 19,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,272 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	62.2	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	39.0	11.5
– Net Position:	-58,834	59,221	-387
– Gross Longs:	60,889	158,814	28,975
– Gross Shorts:	119,723	99,593	29,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	41.7	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.9	41.7	-24.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,075 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	36.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	70.2	6.2
– Net Position:	64,817	-93,198	28,381
– Gross Longs:	128,811	100,168	45,525
– Gross Shorts:	63,994	193,366	17,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	7.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.9	0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,276 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	84.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	25.5	5.4
– Net Position:	-48,454	48,983	-529
– Gross Longs:	7,917	70,056	3,915
– Gross Shorts:	56,371	21,073	4,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	89.2	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.5	-8.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,954 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	43.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	80.9	1.0
– Net Position:	67,701	-72,415	4,714
– Gross Longs:	101,306	85,802	6,695
– Gross Shorts:	33,605	158,217	1,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	49.0	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	3.6	4.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,975 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	24.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	59.0	1.0
– Net Position:	43,533	-47,979	4,446
– Gross Longs:	89,922	33,798	5,849
– Gross Shorts:	46,389	81,777	1,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	27.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	5.0	2.4

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,193 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	0.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.1	9.8	4.2
– Net Position:	2,071	-2,250	179
– Gross Longs:	17,097	194	1,233
– Gross Shorts:	15,026	2,444	1,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	6.5	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-20.7	8.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Apr

Speculator Extremes: SoyOil, SoyMeal, 2-Year & Bloomberg Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table). The 6-Week Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 28 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 169,081 net contracts this week with an advance of 22,135 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Soybean Meal speculator level is now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance of 16 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 136,455 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -15,760 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 6 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 64,817 net contracts this week with a small retreat of -258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 15 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,071 net contracts this week with a decline of -122 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise higher by 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -73,195 net contracts this week with an increase of 59,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 2-Year speculator level at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -37 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,743,353 net contracts this week with a retreat of -39,547 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 1 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -19,423 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,171 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was -48,454 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,178 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing as the GBP speculator level sits at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance of 14 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -52,039 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,685 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Next, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 10 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -155,841 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,872 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculator Bets Higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (4,095 contracts) with Gold (1,480 contracts), Steel (430 contracts), Silver (158 contracts) and Palladium (68 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a decrease by -67 contracts.

Metals Markets were overall lower in price performance this week.

The Precious Metals market’s price performances were mostly lower across the board this week. Steel was the only gainer and saw just a small edge higher by 0.16%.

On the downside, Copper dipped by -0.78% and was followed by Gold which fell by -1.83%. Platinum was lower by -3.77% followed by Palladium, which dropped by -3.92% on the week.

Silver was the biggest negative returner on the week with a -5.39% decline.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (88 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (85 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) and Gold (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.3 percent)
Silver (26.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (26.5 percent)
Copper (88.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (84.6 percent)
Platinum (62.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.6 percent)
Palladium (85.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (88.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (86.3 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (15 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.4 percent)
Copper (7.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.4 percent)
Platinum (14.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.0 percent)
Palladium (-5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.0 percent)
Steel (-4.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,526 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	15.4	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	70.9	3.6
– Net Position:	164,006	-202,940	38,934
– Gross Longs:	212,893	56,261	52,223
– Gross Shorts:	48,887	259,201	13,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	54.9	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.0	-2.7

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,562 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	28.0	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	63.5	7.8
– Net Position:	23,720	-40,985	17,265
– Gross Longs:	33,233	32,357	26,253
– Gross Shorts:	9,513	73,342	8,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	71.7	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.9	1.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,109 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	35.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	62.7	4.1
– Net Position:	59,204	-69,335	10,131
– Gross Longs:	90,142	87,855	20,417
– Gross Shorts:	30,938	157,190	10,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	10.7	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-5.8	-4.3

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,603 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	27.6	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	68.6	4.9
– Net Position:	20,536	-25,387	4,851
– Gross Longs:	28,940	17,133	7,859
– Gross Shorts:	8,404	42,520	3,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	41.1	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-11.4	-15.8

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	35.5	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	35.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-985	30	955
– Gross Longs:	6,884	5,300	2,297
– Gross Shorts:	7,869	5,270	1,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	17.9	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	8.8	-20.9

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,550 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	65.7	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	1.7	96.0	0.4
– Net Position:	11,980	-12,415	435
– Gross Longs:	12,665	26,882	590
– Gross Shorts:	685	39,297	155
– Long to Short Ratio:	18.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.3	11.6	92.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	3.9	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

26 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (92,995 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (59,678 contracts), the Fed Funds (23,202 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (9,394 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (536 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-87,650 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-39,547 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-24,657 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-9,670 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Major Bond Markets were mostly lower in price performance this week.

In the Major Bond Markets, the Fed Funds with a small edge higher by 0.01% was the only market that saw a positive return on the week.

The three-month SOFR and the one-month SOFR were virtually unchanged on the week – each with a -0.01% change, followed by the 2-year bond, which was lower by -0.08%. The 5-year bond declined by -0.22%, while the 10-year note saw a reduction by -0.28%, and the long US Treasury Bond was down by -0.30%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (90 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (65 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (65 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Bearish-Extreme territory. The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (22 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (55.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (64.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (59.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (90.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (74.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (65.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-43.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-31 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (18.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-36.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-32.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-30.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (33.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-43.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-32.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (18.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (22.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 23,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,761 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	63.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.6	1.9
– Net Position:	-4,559	-10,325	14,884
– Gross Longs:	353,274	1,174,148	49,750
– Gross Shorts:	357,833	1,184,473	34,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.4	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-9.1	-14.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -705,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -87,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -618,096 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	59.0	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	53.2	1.1
– Net Position:	-705,746	704,566	1,180
– Gross Longs:	1,839,720	7,114,389	139,054
– Gross Shorts:	2,545,466	6,409,823	137,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	78.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.9	3.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -24,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,722 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	58.8	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	53.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-70,379	70,342	37
– Gross Longs:	308,764	794,605	37,285
– Gross Shorts:	379,143	724,263	37,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	34.6	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-18.9	0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,743,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,703,806 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	81.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	45.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,743,353	1,660,126	83,227
– Gross Longs:	493,350	3,811,446	242,922
– Gross Shorts:	2,236,703	2,151,320	159,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.5	39.5	-14.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,532,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 92,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,625,745 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	79.9	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	57.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-1,532,750	1,448,728	84,022
– Gross Longs:	692,330	5,191,123	405,515
– Gross Shorts:	2,225,080	3,742,395	321,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	35.6	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-20.6	-20.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -790,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 9,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -800,365 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	77.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	63.9	6.8
– Net Position:	-790,971	726,889	64,082
– Gross Longs:	591,103	4,060,023	416,177
– Gross Shorts:	1,382,074	3,333,134	352,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	62.9	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	32.3	13.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -73,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 59,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,873 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	72.3	13.5
– Net Position:	-73,195	201,369	-128,174
– Gross Longs:	247,885	1,960,151	200,473
– Gross Shorts:	321,080	1,758,782	328,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	28.2	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-27.7	-16.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -83,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,116 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.1	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	76.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-83,786	-18,086	101,872
– Gross Longs:	185,732	1,354,174	236,593
– Gross Shorts:	269,518	1,372,260	134,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	41.4	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.8	41.4	-25.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -300,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -300,823 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	85.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	72.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-300,287	297,249	3,038
– Gross Longs:	132,191	1,950,217	181,384
– Gross Shorts:	432,478	1,652,968	178,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	55.9	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	9.2	-14.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

26 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (18,573 contracts) with Gasoline (3,350 contracts) and Brent Oil (322 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-14,239 contracts), Heating Oil (-2,152 contracts) and Bloomberg Index (-35 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Gasoline and Brent Oil lead Energy market price performance.

Energy Markets were mostly higher across the board this week with Gasoline being the leader in price performance with a 13.42% gain on the week. Brent Oil came in next with an 11.40% upswing, while Heating Oil saw a strong weekly gain of 8.87%. WTI Crude Oil was also higher and rose by 8.79% for the week while the Bloomberg Commodity Index advanced by 4.03% over the past 5 days.

On the downside, Natural Gas was the only market to see a negative price performance on the week with a modest -0.96% decline.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (50.6 percent) and Gasoline (50.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week. WTI Crude Oil (49.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.9 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (24.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (49.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (53.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Natural Gas (24.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.5 percent)
Gasoline (50.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (46.5 percent)
Heating Oil (50.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (53.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (0.6 percent)

Natural Gas top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Natural Gas (11.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Bloomberg Index (-62.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gasoline (-17.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Natural Gas (11.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.5 percent)
Gasoline (-17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-42.0 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-13.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-62.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-61.6 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 192,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -14,239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,541 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	44.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	55.4	2.1
– Net Position:	192,302	-226,711	34,409
– Gross Longs:	380,020	873,316	76,070
– Gross Shorts:	187,718	1,100,027	41,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	47.5	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	15.2	-27.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,656 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	36.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	28.3	3.3
– Net Position:	-23,334	20,950	2,384
– Gross Longs:	63,018	93,286	10,766
– Gross Shorts:	86,352	72,336	8,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	51.2	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	14.5	9.2

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -168,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 18,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,888 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	35.3	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	25.8	2.5
– Net Position:	-168,315	150,316	17,999
– Gross Longs:	242,027	556,426	58,043
– Gross Shorts:	410,342	406,110	40,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-9.2	-11.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 3,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,765 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	50.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	72.3	4.0
– Net Position:	57,115	-71,572	14,457
– Gross Longs:	79,546	167,081	27,799
– Gross Shorts:	22,431	238,653	13,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	40.3	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	17.5	-7.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,606 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	49.0	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	60.4	9.6
– Net Position:	5,454	-28,100	22,646
– Gross Longs:	37,085	121,175	46,321
– Gross Shorts:	31,631	149,275	23,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	39.8	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.5	-3.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -35 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,796 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	54.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.0	24.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-74,831	74,349	482
– Gross Longs:	109,438	134,349	521
– Gross Shorts:	184,269	60,000	39
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	99.6	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.7	62.7	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: SoyOil lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows each market’s current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Cocoa

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (22,135 contracts) with Corn (14,851 contracts), Cotton (12,817 contracts), Soybeans (9,424 contracts), Cocoa (3,171 contracts) and Live Cattle (-3,115 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-20,872 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,760 contracts), Lean Hogs (-13,831 contracts), Wheat (-7,171 contracts) and with Coffee (-3,530 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar, Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodities price performance

The market’s leading price performance this week was by Sugar which rose by 5.70% over the past five days. This was followed by Soybean Oil, which rose by a strong 4.21%. Cocoa comes in next with a 4.15% gain on the week and Coffee ended up higher by 3.99%. Next up, Corn was up by roughly 3% with a 2.94% gain, followed by Wheat, which rose by 1.36%. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs each advanced by 0.84%, respectively, while Cotton edged up by just 0.04% to round out the gainers on the week.

On the downside, Soybeans dipped by -0.44% and was followed by Soybean Meal, which had the biggest negative return on the week with a -1.82% retreat.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent) and Soybean Meal (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (90 percent), Cotton (88 percent) and Wheat (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (3 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (43 percent) and the Coffee (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (70.1 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (22.4 percent)
Coffee (42.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (90.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (91.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (93.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (79.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.2 percent)
Cotton (88.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.6 percent)
Cocoa (2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (82.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (88.5 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (21 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-4 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Corn (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (10.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (4.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.2 percent)
Live Cattle (20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.5 percent)
Cotton (61.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.3 percent)
Cocoa (1.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.3 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 263,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,881 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	40.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	52.3	10.8
– Net Position:	263,732	-208,245	-55,487
– Gross Longs:	480,510	749,591	142,181
– Gross Shorts:	216,778	957,836	197,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	25.6	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	0.1	-8.0

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -155,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -20,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,969 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	54.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	39.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-155,841	152,843	2,998
– Gross Longs:	193,071	535,845	89,527
– Gross Shorts:	348,912	383,002	86,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.1	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.0	1.1

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,817 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	38.0	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	49.4	4.6
– Net Position:	19,287	-18,586	-701
– Gross Longs:	50,927	61,935	6,764
– Gross Shorts:	31,640	80,521	7,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	60.2	3.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.2	-16.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 211,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 9,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,722 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	45.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	63.3	8.3
– Net Position:	211,146	-182,906	-28,240
– Gross Longs:	286,201	450,786	54,457
– Gross Shorts:	75,055	633,692	82,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	2.9	20.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 169,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 22,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,946 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	42.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	66.8	3.7
– Net Position:	169,081	-181,380	12,299
– Gross Longs:	224,348	317,537	40,242
– Gross Shorts:	55,267	498,917	27,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-25.9	-4.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 136,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -15,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,215 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	44.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	70.2	4.2
– Net Position:	136,455	-159,019	22,564
– Gross Longs:	186,789	275,402	48,845
– Gross Shorts:	50,334	434,421	26,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	6.0	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-16.7	12.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,588 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	28.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	53.9	12.9
– Net Position:	102,473	-86,112	-16,361
– Gross Longs:	156,520	96,446	27,472
– Gross Shorts:	54,047	182,558	43,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	17.4	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-21.9	-10.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -13,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,052 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	37.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	43.4	8.3
– Net Position:	24,221	-19,752	-4,469
– Gross Longs:	98,890	115,319	21,270
– Gross Shorts:	74,669	135,071	25,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	58.7	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.8	35.0	32.7

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 12,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,750 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	32.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	61.8	2.5
– Net Position:	82,567	-95,143	12,576
– Gross Longs:	136,259	108,509	20,884
– Gross Shorts:	53,692	203,652	8,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	9.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.7	-62.6	63.3

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,594 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	52.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	42.9	4.9
– Net Position:	-19,423	17,820	1,603
– Gross Longs:	43,185	101,347	11,115
– Gross Shorts:	62,608	83,527	9,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	96.2	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.1	-1.9

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,366 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	34.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	28.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-25,537	23,985	1,552
– Gross Longs:	121,024	154,803	32,992
– Gross Shorts:	146,561	130,818	31,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	15.7	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-5.2	11.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Apr

The Middle East conflict is already driving inflation higher across the world

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US indices closed lower. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.36%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.41%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed down 0.57%. Recent macroeconomic reports showed that the manufacturing PMI (S&P PMI) for April jumped by 1.7 points to 54.0, marking the fastest growth in almost four years. However, this optimism was overshadowed by an increase in jobless claims to 214,000 and a drop in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to a four‑month low of 0.20, which came in worse than analysts expected.

On the geopolitical front, the situation has reached a deadlock: the US and Iran are fighting for control over the Strait of Hormuz, using mutual blockades as leverage. Washington expects counterproposals from Tehran to resume the peace process, while Iran refuses to negotiate as long as its ports remain blocked by the US Navy. This uncertainty continues to pressure global markets and keeps supply‑disruption risks elevated.

The European stock market continued to decline. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.67%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.19%. The main negative factor was fresh PMI data confirming that the prolonged energy crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has begun directly suppressing business activity in the Eurozone. Against the backdrop of attacks on commercial vessels by both Iran and the US, investors began actively selling bank stocks, leading to declines of more than 2% in Santander, Deutsche Bank, and BBVA.

The US natural‑gas prices plunged more than 4% on Thursday, falling to 2.60 dollars per MMBtu – a level close to the lows of autumn 2024. The main driver was the weekly report showing an unusually large storage injection. The build totaled 103 billion cubic feet, not only exceeding analysts’ expectations but nearly doubling the five‑year average for this time of year. Thanks to mild spring weather reducing heating demand, total US gas inventories now stand 7.1% above normal, creating downward pressure on prices.

Asian indices declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped by 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 0.57%.

Japan’s economic situation is becoming increasingly contradictory. For the first time in five months, core inflation accelerated, driven by rising energy prices amid the conflict in Iran. Despite this, the figure still has not reached the 2% target, giving the Bank of Japan a formal reason to maintain its ultra‑loose monetary policy. The regulator is expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, preferring a wait‑and‑see approach amid high uncertainty.
On Friday, the offshore yuan fell below 6.83 per dollar, ending the week with its first decline in three weeks. The main driver of the Chinese currency’s weakness was the global strengthening of the dollar and the sharp escalation of the Middle East conflict. President Trump’s order to “shoot to kill” Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a new wave of volatility in energy markets and heightened concerns about the safety of maritime trade routes.

The situation in the Persian Gulf is already directly affecting China’s real economy. Due to the spike in oil prices and logistical disruptions, many Chinese exporters were forced to raise their selling prices to offset higher fuel and raw‑material costs. This pressure has begun to spill over into the domestic market: in March, several categories of consumer goods recorded noticeable price increases, ending a long period of price stability in the country.

New Zealand’s domestic agenda now dictates the need for decisive action from the regulator. After the release of high inflation data for the first quarter, traders increased bets on a 25‑basis‑point rate hike as early as May. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, when the recent surge in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict will be fully reflected in the statistics. The RBNZ has already sent a clear signal to the market that it is prepared to take aggressive measures if price growth accelerates further.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,108.40 −29.50 (−0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,310.32 −179.71 (−0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 24,155.45 −39.45 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,457.01 −19.45 (−0.19%)

USD Index 98.80 +0.21 (+0.21%)

News feed for: 2026.04.24

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Apr

Gold Falls Nearly 3.0% Over the Week Amid Geopolitical Pressure

By Analytical Department RoboForex

On Friday, the price of gold remained below 4,700 USD per ounce. For the week, the price is expected to decline by approximately 3.0%, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz support rising energy prices and heighten concerns about inflation.{}

Both sides are maintaining their blockades of this strategically vital waterway, with peace talks showing little progress.

US President Donald Trump said on social media on Thursday that he had ordered the US Navy to target and destroy any vessels laying mines in the strait. US troops also boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, the truce between the US and Iran has been extended indefinitely, as Washington awaits a new formal proposal from Tehran. The truce between Israel and Lebanon has also been prolonged for three weeks.

High energy prices are reinforcing inflation risks and strengthening expectations of potential interest rate hikes by central banks. Collectively, these factors are weighing on gold, reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,685 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,755 USD, while a downside break could lead to a decline towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,693 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,616 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,690 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is poised to close the week nearly 3.0% lower amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which continue to dominate market sentiment. Both sides maintain their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, while peace talks show little progress. President Trump’s stance, ordering the Navy to destroy mines and board an Iranian oil tanker, has kept energy prices elevated and inflation concerns firmly in focus. Although truces with Iran and Lebanon have been prolonged, the lack of meaningful progress towards a resolution continues to weigh on gold. With central banks potentially leaning towards rate hikes amid persistent inflation, the non-yielding metal faces a challenging environment. Technical indicators suggest further downside towards 4,616 USD in the near term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

24 Apr

Week Ahead: Rate-Setters Take Centre Stage!

By ForexTime

BoJ, BoC, BoJ, Fed, ECB and BoE seen leaving rates unchanged
Quarterly outlook & press conferences may provide critical insight
Central banks are likely to remain hawkish on inflation fears
USDInd, EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD on breakout watch

Geopolitics may set the tone in the week ahead as markets monitor the Iran standoff.

Risk sentiment will be dictated by whether tensions escalate or shift toward diplomacy.

On the macro front, key central bank decisions and corporate earnings have the potential to inject financial markets with fresh volatility:

Monday, 27th April

CN50: China industrial profits
GER40: Germany Gfk consumer confidence

Tuesday, 28th April

JPY: BoJ rate decision, unemployment
US500: US Conf. Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 29th April

AUD: Australia CPI
CAD: BoC rate decision
EUR: Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany CPI
USDInd: FOMC rate decision

Thursday, 30th April

CNY: China manufacturing PMIs
EUR: ECB rate decision, Eurozone CPI, unemployment, GDP
Germany GDP, unemployment
JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
GBP: BOE rate decision
US500: US GDP, consumer income, initial jobless claims

Friday, 1st May

JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, S&P PMI
GBP: UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
US500: US S&P Global US Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely impassable since late February, fuelling fears of inflation shocks amid triple digit oil prices.

This has prompted central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance – meaning favoring higher rates to tackle inflation.

Note: A quick central bank cheat sheet of what to expect in the week ahead. (Source Bloomberg)

Here are 5 assets that could be rocked by 5 central bank announcements:

1. BoJ meeting: USDJPY

As USDJPY lingers near the danger 160.00 intervention threshold, whispers are growing louder about a potential intervention.

The BOJ is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% and release its quarterly outlook report. Any fresh insights offered by Governor Kazuo Ueda during the post-meeting briefing could rock the Yen.

Note: The BoJ decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.8%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

2. BoC meeting: USDCAD

The BOC is expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference post decision.

Given how the CAD has been heavily supported by surging oil prices, this could spark discussion of a possible rate hike down the road.

Note: The BoC decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.2%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

3. Fed meeting: USDInd

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting or raising rate in 2026 amid the confusion and uncertainty around the Iran conflict.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% with Chair Jerome Powell holding a news conference post decision.

Note: The Fed decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

4. ECB meeting: EURUSD

No changes are expected to interest rates when the ECB meets but any insight offered in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) or President Christine Lagarde’s conference could move the EURUSD. Trader are currently pricing a 90% chance of an ECB rate cut by June.

Note: The ECB decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.6%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

5. BoE meeting: GBPUSD

Growing concerns over rising inflation have raised the odds of a BoE rate hike in 2026. Although the BoE will leave rates unchanged in April, the meeting minutes, quarterly Monetary Policy Report and Governor Andrew Bailey’ press conference may provide critical insight.

Note: The BoE decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.4% decline in a 6-hour window post-release.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

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