InvestMacro

Large Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,144 contracts) and with the Bitcoin (560 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-34,934 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-25,888 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-23,652 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-16,251 contracts), the British Pound (-11,995 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,756 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,325 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,134 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-2,374 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

Highlighting the major Currencies market futures positioning this week was the Mexican peso, which was the highest weekly gainer. The Mexican peso position rose by over 9,000 weekly contracts this week and is currently the most bullish of the Currencies right now according to net speculator position. The overall position is now at a standing of 63,801 net contracts and the peso position has been overall in a bullish level for 72 consecutive weeks. Recently, the Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to a new level of 6.50% with analysts speculating that this could end the easing cycle which began over a year ago and the next path for interest rates is uncertain. In the Forex markets, the Mexican peso has been on a strong uptrend since February 2025 with the MXN is up by over 22% since the lowest levels of 2025 against the US dollar.

Next up, the Euro speculator position dropped by over -34,000 contracts this week, marking the most bearish weekly change in the past 12 weeks. Overall, the euro speculator position has now fallen for three out of the past four weeks and has fallen to the lowest standing since April. The current level of net speculator positions is at 13,932 contracts and is essentially a neutral-to-small bullish level in the big scheme of things. The European Central Bank, this week (on Thursday June 11th), increased their interest rate by 25 basis points to a total level of 2.25% and marked the first rate increase in almost three years. Despite the weakness in speculative bets for the week, the euro price in the Forex markets continues to trade in a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1950, with this week’s close for the euro against the US dollar at 1.1617.

The Canadian dollar speculator position dropped sharply and has now fallen for five consecutive weeks. The Canadian dollar positioning has now fallen by -105,340 net contracts in just the past five weeks and is now at a net position standing of -119,999 contracts. This marks the lowest or most bearish level for the Canadian dollar contracts since December 9th, a span of 26 weeks. The Bank of Canada this week held its interest rate steady at 2.25%, with uncertainty which way policy could go in the near future as inflation due to the Iran war is an issue. In the Forex markets, the Canadian dollar against the US dollar saw a slight uptick this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks that saw prices drop to the downside out of its previous ascending triangle pattern. The Canadian dollar was helped out and bounced off of resistance at the 0.7150 level, which is where support lies currently and could mark a level of down-trending action if this level is broken.

The US Dollar Index saw weekly speculator bets decline by over -2,000 contracts this week following two weeks of gains. The current US Dollar Index positioning is very much in a neutral-to-small-bullish level with an overall net speculator standing of just 1,384 contracts. The DX speculator positioning has been in this small bullish situation now for 13 consecutive weeks with only 1 small dip into a small bearish position in that time-frame. Before that, the DX positioning had been in an overall bearish level for 38 out of the previous 39 weeks through March 10th. The US Dollar Index price this week tested the upper range of its sideways channel that the currency has been in for quite some time. This channel has a low level of 96.50 with an upper resistance level of 100.00. This week, the US Dollar Index price tested the 100.00 level and was rejected lower with a close at 99.49. A breakout above 100 could see a play towards 102.50 in the near future.

Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso lead Currency market price performances

The leading gains for the major Currency markets this week saw the Brazilian Real up by 2.38% over the past five days. The Mexican Peso was next with a gain over 1% with a 1.25% rise.

The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.64%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.50%. Next up, the Euro was higher by 0.41%, while Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.32%. The Australian Dollar was virtually unchanged with an uptick of 0.09%, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged higher by 0.05%, and the Swiss Franc, which saw an uptick by 0.03%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.32%. The US Dollar Index was the biggest decliner on the week with a -0.49% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (11 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.3 percent)
EuroFX (35.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (65.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (77.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (39.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (74.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.8 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-28 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.3 percent)
EuroFX (-8.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-27.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-1.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.5 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,758 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	32.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	39.2	3.7
– Net Position:	1,384	-3,599	2,215
– Gross Longs:	27,908	16,092	4,059
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	19,691	1,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	46.8	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	4.9	28.6

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,866 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	63.0	7.6
– Net Position:	13,932	-38,085	24,153
– Gross Longs:	219,564	511,359	90,399
– Gross Shorts:	205,632	549,444	66,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	68.0	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	12.7	-32.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,218 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	74.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	48.8	12.3
– Net Position:	-64,213	75,870	-11,657
– Gross Longs:	45,743	218,025	24,172
– Gross Shorts:	109,956	142,155	35,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.8	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	4.6	-21.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -145,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,567 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	62.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	33.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-145,818	142,369	3,449
– Gross Longs:	121,520	313,351	46,489
– Gross Shorts:	267,338	170,982	43,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	86.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	10.9	1.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,909 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	38.9	21.2
– Net Position:	-36,665	49,741	-13,076
– Gross Longs:	7,335	94,612	11,370
– Gross Shorts:	44,000	44,871	24,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	80.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	11.4	-23.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -119,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -25,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,111 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	44.8	10.5
– Net Position:	-119,999	128,812	-8,813
– Gross Longs:	37,944	300,856	31,377
– Gross Shorts:	157,943	172,044	40,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	69.8	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.1	36.9	-28.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,812 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	54.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	66.6	6.4
– Net Position:	18,160	-36,669	18,509
– Gross Longs:	92,995	172,451	38,751
– Gross Shorts:	74,835	209,120	20,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	32.8	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.5	-14.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,246 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	60.2	4.0
– Net Position:	-31,571	34,705	-3,134
– Gross Longs:	11,764	124,482	2,830
– Gross Shorts:	43,335	89,777	5,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	73.1	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-14.4	-25.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 9,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,657 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	45.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	77.3	1.7
– Net Position:	63,801	-68,351	4,550
– Gross Longs:	100,199	96,959	8,190
– Gross Shorts:	36,398	165,310	3,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	51.8	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.0	-2.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,980 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.0	22.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	64.0	1.2
– Net Position:	43,846	-46,946	3,100
– Gross Longs:	81,814	24,845	4,463
– Gross Shorts:	37,968	71,791	1,363
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	27.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.7	-7.1

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,458 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	0.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	15.2	5.7
– Net Position:	3,018	-2,906	-112
– Gross Longs:	17,178	106	1,009
– Gross Shorts:	14,160	3,012	1,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.8	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

14 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Copper & Steel lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday June 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a boost of 11 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 3,018 net contracts this week with an advance of 560 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

The Bitcoin speculator positioning is often seen as a hedging position as many times when Bitcoin drops speculator bets go up and vice versa.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Copper speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise higher by 10 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 74,450 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,383 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the Steel speculator level residing at an 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decrease of -2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,707 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,107 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 84 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -3 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 75,957 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,249 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybean Oil speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -20 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 121,954 net contracts this week with a fall of -26,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -40 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -42,121 net contracts this week with a decrease of -5,067 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next and tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level is at 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week while the speculator position was -23,497 net contracts this week with a retreat of -6,185 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in also tied as most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -54 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -2,534,063 net contracts this week with a reduction of -385,462 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Natural Gas speculator level is at an 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -18 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -193,957 net contracts this week with a drop of -7,842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Next, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -145,818 net contracts this week with a decline of -16,251 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

14 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a modest rise by 1,107 weekly contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-4,383 contracts), Platinum (-2,200 contracts), Gold (-2,183 contracts), Silver (-1,712 contracts) and with Palladium (-958 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium and Copper lead Metals markets price changes

Leading the Metals markets this week in price performance was Palladium, which saw a rise by 4.57%. Copper came in next with a 3.18% gain. Steel rose by 0.64%, and Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.37% rise.

On the downside, Gold fell by -2.39%, and Platinum showed the biggest decline on the week with a -2.77% drop.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (96 percent) and Steel (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.9 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (96.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (48.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.1 percent)
Palladium (72.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.7 percent)
Steel (87.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (81.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.9 percent)
Silver (-3.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.3 percent)
Copper (10.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,020 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.5	17.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	78.2	4.7
– Net Position:	173,837	-201,036	27,199
– Gross Longs:	207,984	58,986	42,891
– Gross Shorts:	34,147	260,022	15,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	55.6	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-2.5	-23.5

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,926 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	25.8	26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	64.8	9.2
– Net Position:	22,214	-40,368	18,154
– Gross Longs:	32,487	26,660	27,673
– Gross Shorts:	10,273	67,028	9,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	72.7	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	0.1	10.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -4,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,833 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	31.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	62.0	3.9
– Net Position:	74,450	-83,935	9,485
– Gross Longs:	108,035	86,211	20,089
– Gross Shorts:	33,585	170,146	10,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.1	4.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.0	3.8

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -2,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,212 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	32.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	65.7	5.7
– Net Position:	15,012	-20,552	5,540
– Gross Longs:	24,826	20,452	9,080
– Gross Shorts:	9,814	41,004	3,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	53.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	6.8	10.2

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,006 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	39.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	26.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-2,964	2,236	728
– Gross Longs:	7,516	6,909	2,449
– Gross Shorts:	10,480	4,673	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	31.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	10.5	-7.5

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,600 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	62.9	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	92.1	0.2
– Net Position:	11,707	-12,126	419
– Gross Longs:	13,557	26,118	511
– Gross Shorts:	1,850	38,244	92
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	5.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	12.9	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.2	9.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

14 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (130,350 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (65,983 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (49,056 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-385,462 contracts), the Fed Funds (-44,731 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-34,232 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-31,021 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-21,633 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-3,452 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Bond market price gains

The biggest price performance mover this week was the long US Treasury Bond, which rose by almost 1% with a 0.93% increase. Next up, the 10-Year Note was a little higher with a 0.59% rise, followed by the Five-Year Bond, which was up by 0.44%. The Two-Year Bond managed to rise by 0.20%, while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged on the week.

The 3-Month SOFR was unchanged for the past five days, while the 1-Month SOFR dipped ever so slightly at a -0.01%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 2-Year Bonds (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the Fed Funds (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (37.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (79.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (76.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (33.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (76.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (59.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (51.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (45.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (11.7 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (58 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-53.9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (58.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-23.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-26.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-25.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-20.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-53.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -177,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -44,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	67.5	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	58.0	1.7
– Net Position:	-177,055	171,960	5,095
– Gross Longs:	151,868	1,215,568	34,988
– Gross Shorts:	328,923	1,043,608	29,893
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	69.3	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.5	-17.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,534,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -385,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,148,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	66.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	48.1	0.3
– Net Position:	-2,534,063	2,533,569	494
– Gross Longs:	1,528,835	9,161,028	44,086
– Gross Shorts:	4,062,898	6,627,459	43,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.9	54.0	-0.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,406 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	63.0	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	49.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-208,039	207,974	65
– Gross Longs:	269,395	936,939	6,548
– Gross Shorts:	477,434	728,965	6,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	58.5	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	25.7	0.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,219,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 130,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,350,188 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	79.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	51.9	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,219,838	1,156,276	63,562
– Gross Longs:	511,328	3,376,977	216,772
– Gross Shorts:	1,731,166	2,220,701	153,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	42.2	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.1	-53.8	-10.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,320,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 49,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,369,218 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	62.3	6.5
– Net Position:	-1,320,162	1,317,080	3,082
– Gross Longs:	469,268	5,169,671	404,940
– Gross Shorts:	1,789,430	3,852,591	401,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	26.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-7.5	-28.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -863,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -34,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -829,575 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	80.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	63.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-863,807	864,695	-888
– Gross Longs:	533,000	4,222,625	384,645
– Gross Shorts:	1,396,807	3,357,930	385,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	82.3	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	16.4	-29.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -117,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 65,983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -183,090 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	81.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	71.8	12.5
– Net Position:	-117,107	229,011	-111,904
– Gross Longs:	234,404	1,972,879	192,813
– Gross Shorts:	351,511	1,743,868	304,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	35.6	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	19.6	12.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,853 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	75.5	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	71.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-163,305	67,844	95,461
– Gross Longs:	214,112	1,420,514	230,427
– Gross Shorts:	377,417	1,352,670	134,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	63.5	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	14.3	-4.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -31,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -287,710 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	85.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	71.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-318,731	320,235	-1,504
– Gross Longs:	133,885	2,046,697	181,460
– Gross Shorts:	452,616	1,726,462	182,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	64.7	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	12.3	-8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

14 Jun

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with an increase by 9,488 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-25,573 contracts), Gasoline (-8,579 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,842 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-5,608 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-2,267 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy markets were lower across the board

For the Energy markets this week, they were all lower across the board with Natural Gas seeing the least decline on the week with a -1.29% shortfall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped by -2.42%, while Gasoline was lower by -2.54%.

Heating Oil was lower by -9.23%, followed by WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -9.73%.

Brent Oil was the biggest decliner on the week with a -9.76% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brent Oil

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (8.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (29.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (29.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (37.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (68.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (55.0 percent)
Natural Gas (8.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (13.0 percent)
Gasoline (39.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (48.6 percent)
Heating Oil (45.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (48.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (5.4 percent)

Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (23.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude (-19.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-19.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (23.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (7.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-17.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.4 percent)
Gasoline (-10.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.6 percent)
Heating Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-5.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 130,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -25,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,874 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	45.8	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	54.3	2.4
– Net Position:	130,301	-170,726	40,425
– Gross Longs:	360,524	919,786	89,544
– Gross Shorts:	230,223	1,090,512	49,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	64.6	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	15.0	25.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 9,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,371 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	31.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	30.9	2.7
– Net Position:	-8,883	2,462	6,421
– Gross Longs:	56,151	80,160	13,212
– Gross Shorts:	65,034	77,698	6,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	22.9	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-32.3	44.8

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -193,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,115 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	35.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	25.1	2.3
– Net Position:	-193,957	175,738	18,219
– Gross Longs:	240,948	586,195	56,264
– Gross Shorts:	434,905	410,457	38,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	90.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.8	7.5

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,622 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	66.2	4.6
– Net Position:	47,043	-58,973	11,930
– Gross Longs:	80,104	149,266	26,345
– Gross Shorts:	33,061	208,239	14,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	52.9	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.9	-3.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,091 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.1	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.4	9.9
– Net Position:	1,824	-26,341	24,517
– Gross Longs:	40,044	112,298	49,677
– Gross Shorts:	38,220	138,639	25,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	41.5	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.6	-5.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -80,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,282 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	56.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.2	24.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-80,890	80,412	478
– Gross Longs:	102,893	140,412	536
– Gross Shorts:	183,783	60,000	58
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	9.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	63.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.6	-5.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

14 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn and Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar with a small increase by 2,105 weekly contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-96,383 contracts), Soybean Meal (-70,583 contracts), Soybeans (-37,321 contracts), Soybean Oil (-26,485 contracts), Wheat (-17,091 contracts), Cotton (-9,249 contracts), Coffee (-7,212 contracts), Cocoa (-6,185 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,067 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,036 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa and Coffee lead Soft Commodities price performance

Leading the Soft Commodities price gains this week was Cocoa, which rose by almost 4% with a 3.79% gain. Coffee came in second with a 2.90% rise on the week. Wheat was also up by over 2% with a 2.26% increase.

On the downside, Live Cattle was virtually unchanged with a -0.14% dip. Cotton was lower by -0.50%, Soybeans fell by -0.62%, followed by Corn, which declined by -0.96%. Lean Hogs was next with a -1.37% decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which dropped over 2% by -2.08%.

Soybean Oil was down by -2.41%. And Sugar was the biggest decliner with a -2.97% drop.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (77 percent), Soybean Meal (70 percent) and Live Cattle (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (29 percent) and the Coffee (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.4 percent)
Sugar (28.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.5 percent)
Coffee (29.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.6 percent)
Soybeans (77.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (79.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (90.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (69.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.6 percent)
Live Cattle (59.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.5 percent)
Cotton (84.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (89.8 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (8 percent) and Cocoa (0.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Wheat (-49 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-40 percent), Corn (-32 percent) and Soybean Meal (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-32.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.7 percent)
Sugar (7.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (-18.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-9.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-40.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-42.1 percent)
Cotton (-3.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.6 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.9 percent)
Wheat (-49.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -96,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,942 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	44.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	47.2	10.0
– Net Position:	103,559	-53,122	-50,437
– Gross Longs:	477,576	848,686	141,418
– Gross Shorts:	374,017	901,808	191,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	49.1	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	34.7	6.9

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,163 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	50.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	40.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-105,058	106,415	-1,357
– Gross Longs:	225,149	513,549	82,833
– Gross Shorts:	330,207	407,134	84,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	72.4	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.0	-12.5

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,388 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	41.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	44.1	4.3
– Net Position:	6,176	-5,785	-391
– Gross Longs:	51,440	88,452	8,747
– Gross Shorts:	45,264	94,237	9,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	72.6	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	18.7	-6.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 150,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -37,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,784 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	48.8	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	60.8	7.3
– Net Position:	150,463	-122,120	-28,343
– Gross Longs:	267,406	495,979	45,342
– Gross Shorts:	116,943	618,099	73,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	24.7	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.1	-1.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 121,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -26,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,439 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	45.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	65.5	4.0
– Net Position:	121,954	-135,102	13,148
– Gross Longs:	186,964	316,763	40,539
– Gross Shorts:	65,010	451,865	27,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	18.6	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	18.6	9.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 85,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -70,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,187 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	48.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	66.6	4.5
– Net Position:	85,604	-109,770	24,166
– Gross Longs:	164,267	297,197	51,481
– Gross Shorts:	78,663	406,967	27,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	29.8	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	20.4	39.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,522 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	31.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	53.8	12.1
– Net Position:	82,486	-71,638	-10,848
– Gross Longs:	137,031	99,064	27,433
– Gross Shorts:	54,545	170,702	38,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	33.2	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.5	10.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,054 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	41.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	28.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-42,121	41,690	431
– Gross Longs:	71,117	130,274	25,107
– Gross Shorts:	113,238	88,584	24,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	92.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	38.9	30.7

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -9,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,206 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	37.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	62.6	2.9
– Net Position:	75,957	-81,917	5,960
– Gross Longs:	126,353	121,661	15,510
– Gross Shorts:	50,396	203,578	9,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	19.0	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	6.0	-34.2

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,312 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	53.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	41.6	5.8
– Net Position:	-23,497	24,426	-929
– Gross Longs:	39,354	108,965	10,789
– Gross Shorts:	62,851	84,539	11,718
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	1.9	-22.0

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -57,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -17,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,762 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	40.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	28.2	7.6
– Net Position:	-57,853	56,192	1,661
– Gross Longs:	115,711	184,410	36,405
– Gross Shorts:	173,564	128,218	34,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	51.3	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.4	51.3	-2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jun

Week Ahead: NAS100 faces triple threat – SpaceX, Fed & Iran

By ForexTime

NAS100 ↑ 17% YTD, 4% away from ATH
SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq exchange
Renewed peace deal hopes may lift risk sentiment
Fed decision set to add to overall volatility
Technical levels: 29500, 30850, 28300

Big money is moving. Are you ready?

Central bank decisions, major data and geopolitics spell fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

SpaceX hits the Nasdaq exchange this afternoon, the biggest stock listing in history, with a record $75 billion raised from financial firms.

Trade SpaceX CFD (SPCX) with FXTM from Monday 15th June.

Add a potential US-Iran peace deal to the mix and markets have the ingredients for serious market volatility:

Monday, 15th June

• CAD: Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales

• EUR: Eurozone industrial production

• USD: US industrial production, Empire State manufacturing

Tuesday, 16th June

• AUD: RBA rate decision

• CNY: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production

• EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations

• JPY: BoJ rate decision

• NZD: New Zealand food prices

Wednesday, 17th June

• EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB Wage Tracker

• ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales

• GBP: UK CPI

• USD: US FOMC rate decision, retail sales

Thursday, 18th June

• NZD: New Zealand GDP

• GBP: UK BOE rate decision, jobless claims, unemployment

Friday, 19th June

• CAD: Canada retail sales

• JPY: Japan CPI, BOJ meeting minutes

• GBP: UK retail sales

• US Juneteenth holiday, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan observe Dragon Boat Festival. Markets closed.

SpaceX’s debut doesn’t just make history. It removes the liquidity overhang that’s been sitting on markets like a dead weight. With that pressure gone, equities could be in for a rollercoaster ride.

Here are 4 forces that could send NAS100 flying or falling:

1) SpaceX goes live

SpaceX is now among the largest public companies on the planet and $100 billion in retail buy orders flooded in before it even started trading. It could join the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 trading days.

But here’s the catch…at a $1.8 trillion valuation, this stock is priced for perfection on a company that isn’t yet turning a profit.

Strong debut = risk-on rocket fuel for the Nasdaq100 and US equities.
Weak debut = confidence shock. Markets feel it everywhere.

2) US-Iran deal close, but no done

We have been here before.

Trump says a deal is near. Markets heard it and liked it with risk sentiment jumping on hopes that 100+ days of Middle East-driven volatility might finally be coming to an end.

Less regional conflict -> less oil risk -> cooling inflation fears -> more appetite for equities.

But sentiment remains fragile as Iranian officials haven’t signed anything yet. Until ink hits paper, this is just hope not reality.

3) Fed decision – all eyes on Warsh

Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The real story is Kevin Warsh stepping up to the podium for his first press conference as Fed Chair.

Expect him to play it carefully — no explicit rate guidance, a balanced read on inflation and jobs data, maybe some housekeeping on how the Fed communicates going forward.

If he strikes a hawkish tone, this may weigh on equities as Fed hike bets jump.
A move dovish lean may support equities.

4) Technical forces

The NAS100 bullish on the daily charts with prices recently bouncing near the 50-day SMA

A solid breakout above 30,000 may trigger an incline toward 30,793 and higher.
Weakness below 29500 may open the doors toward 28200 and the 50-day SMA.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

12 Jun

Today investors’ focus is directed at the historic IPO of SpaceX

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices closed with a powerful surge, fully offsetting the losses of the previous session and recording one of the best days of the year. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.75%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 3.29%. The main driver of the explosive rally on Wall Street was the unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. During the day, US President Donald Trump shifted from warlike rhetoric to a conciliatory tone: after morning threats to deliver “very tough strikes tonight” and take control of Iran’s oil infrastructure (including Kharg Island), by the evening he announced on the social network Truth Social that the planned bombings were canceled. Trump stated that during high‑level negotiations a “big agreement” to end the war had been reached, and that it had been fundamentally approved by Iran, Israel, and key Arab allies.

An additional powerful boost to the market came from the technology sector, where preparations for the historic IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, scheduled for Friday, June 12 (the expected company valuation is $1.75-1.77 trillion), were in full swing.

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remained mixed. Fresh data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May indicated an acceleration in wholesale price growth, confirming the persistence of high inflation due to the recent commodity shock. This data strengthened market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be forced to raise interest rates at least one more time before the end of 2026 (traders consider December the most likely moment).
European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.48%. The central bank of Denmark (Danmarks Nationalbank) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected – to 1.85%. The current account rate, deposit certificates, and discount rate were fixed at this level, while the lending rate increased to 2.00%. The Danish regulator took this step immediately after a similar decision by the European Central Bank earlier the same day. The moves by Frankfurt and Copenhagen were driven by the need to combat inflation risks caused by the new escalation of the Middle East conflict and shocks in the energy market.

Platinum prices (XPT) showed a powerful rebound, soaring more than 4% and breaking above $1,730 per troy ounce. This sharp rise allowed the market to move away from the six‑month low recorded during the recent sell‑off.

Platinum’s dynamics fully matched the broad rally in the precious metals sector triggered by the large‑scale de‑escalation of geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, caution persists in the market. Experts emphasize that even in the event of diplomatic success, it will take considerable time to fully restore supply chains and oil export volumes. At the same time, platinum continues to be supported by a severe physical deficit in the long term. According to WPIC’s outlook, in 2026 the market will face a shortage of the metal for the fourth consecutive year.

Oil WTI prices stabilized around $90 per barrel, balancing between threats and diplomacy. On one hand, Donald Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s terminal on Kharg Island, although he ruled out a full‑scale war. On the other hand, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, restoring hope for de‑escalation. However, the decline in prices is limited by severe depletion of global inventories: reserves in the US continue to fall sharply, and fuel stocks in Singapore have plunged to their lowest level since 2013, confirming shortages at key hubs.
The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell more than 3% – below $3.10 per MMBtu, hitting a two‑week low. The trigger was the EIA report: underground storage inventories rose by 108 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding the prediction of 101 billion.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. On Friday, the Chinese stock market showed a confident recovery. The positive dynamics in China followed the general rally across Asian markets. The main driver of optimism was Donald Trump’s statement that a peace agreement on the Middle East could be signed as early as this weekend. Investors expect that de‑escalation will allow safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored in the shortest possible time. Despite Friday’s rebound, both Chinese indices recorded weekly declines due to high volatility.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,394.30 +127.31 (+1.75%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,848.75 +929.97 (+1.86%)

DAX (DE40) 24,209.71 +14.40 (+0.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,303.88 +49.07 (+0.48%)

USD Index 99.67 -0.28 (-0.28%)

News feed for: 2026.06.12

Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Jun

USD/JPY Continues Its Climb: Is There a Limit?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 160.52 on Thursday, marking its highest level since July 2024. The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure despite a notable acceleration in Japan’s producer price inflation.

According to the latest data, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 6.1% year-on-year in May, up from a revised 5.3% in April. The figure exceeded market expectations of 5.5% and reached its highest level in three years. Rising energy costs and the yen’s weakness remain the primary drivers of producer price growth.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as early as its next policy meeting. Market participants increasingly believe the central bank will need to respond to mounting inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East and the continued depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Investor attention is also focused on comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with markets seeking clearer signals on the future direction of monetary policy. Investors are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase in September and are not ruling out an additional move in December.

Despite these expectations, the yen remains under pressure. The strength of the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance continue to outweigh support from potential Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 160.30 level and is developing an upward move towards 160.85. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a corrective pullback towards 160.30. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is building an upward structure towards 160.85. A correction towards 160.30 may follow before another advance towards 160.90, with scope for the broader trend to extend to 162.00.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line remains above the 50 level and is moving towards 80, suggesting that upside momentum is likely to persist in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to benefit from a strong US dollar and expectations of prolonged Federal Reserve policy tightness, despite growing speculation of further Bank of Japan rate increases. While the pair remains firmly bullish, its approach to new multi-year highs may increase market sensitivity to any signs of intervention or policy shifts from Japanese authorities.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

Investors launched broad profit‑taking in the technology sector. The Bank of Canada kept its rate at 2.25%

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices plunged to multi‑week lows. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.87%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined 1.62%, and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.98% lower. The main trigger for the panic sell‑off was a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions around Iran after President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with a harsh military response for dragging out negotiations. This instantly brought fears of prolonged escalation back to the markets and sparked another jump in oil prices.

The technology sector took an additional hit as investors aggressively locked in profits in semiconductor and AI‑giant stocks amid concerns of overheated valuations. Sentiment was further pressured by growing caution ahead of the historic SpaceX IPO scheduled for this Friday (June 12), with funds actively freeing up liquidity for the mega‑listing valued at $1.77 trillion. As a result, sector leaders closed deep in the red: Broadcom plunged 5.1%, AMD 4.9%, Micron Technology 4.7%, and market favorite Nvidia lost 3.7%. Tesla shares dropped 3.8%, and the wave of selling spread into the heavy industrial sector as well.

On Wednesday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) posted a moderate gain against its US counterpart, stabilizing near 1.39 per USD. The symbolic strengthening of the loonie was driven by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which, as expected, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that economic uncertainty remains extremely high due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the threat of new US tariffs as part of the CUSMA review. Despite the BoC’s hawkish tone and rising market bets on a potential 25‑bp rate hike in December, the Canadian dollar still failed to meaningfully distance itself from its six‑month lows.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the close, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) ended 0.51% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped 0.18%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the session 0.27% higher. The main drag was the renewed wave of geopolitical tension in the Middle East following US military strikes on targets in Iran. In addition, market participants adopted a wait‑and‑see stance ahead of Thursday’s key ECB meeting, where the regulator is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Global crude oil prices resumed strong growth, adding more than 2%. Brent prices surged toward $92 per barrel, while US WTI rose to $88-89. President Donald Trump issued a harsh warning to Tehran on social media, stating that Iran had delayed peace talks for too long and would now “have to pay for it.” The statement followed attacks by pro‑Iranian forces on infrastructure in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait – retaliation for recent US “self‑defense strikes” after the destruction of an American helicopter. Additional support for oil came from fresh EIA data showing US commercial crude inventories plunged by 7.228 million barrels last week – the seventh consecutive weekly decline and nearly double analysts’ expectations.

The US natural gas prices (Henry Hub) posted moderate gains, stabilizing around $3.19-3.20 per MMBtu. Futures were supported by updated weather expectations predicting a return of abnormally hot temperatures above seasonal norms in the second half of June, which will inevitably boost electricity demand and strain cooling systems. However, prices still remain well below the local highs reached earlier this month.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed 0.61% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.64%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose 0.57%.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations calculated by the Melbourne Institute held at 5.6%, unchanged from the previous month and remaining near three‑year highs. The current stabilization comes against the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) tight monetary stance: three rate hikes since the start of the year have pushed borrowing costs to 4.35%, gradually cooling domestic demand and preventing secondary effects from energy‑market shocks.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,266.99 -119.66 (-1.62%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,918.78 -953.33 (-1.87%)

DAX (DE40) 24,195.31 -237.75 (-0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,254.81 +27.48 (+0.27%)

USD Index 100.02 +0.11 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2026.06.11

Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) – EUR (HIGH)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3) – EUR (HIGH)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.