InvestMacro

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.79% (weekly result +3.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.20% (weekly result +4.70%). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 1.29% (weekly result +6.40%).

The outlook for the US economy in the near future will be closely tied to the dynamics of relations between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump’s statement that Tehran agreed to suspend its nuclear program and halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz became a powerful signal for markets, strengthening hopes for a rapid stabilization of energy prices. In monetary policy, attention will focus on the congressional testimony of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the position of Federal Reserve Chair. His stance on the optimal size of the Fed’s balance sheet may become a key benchmark for the bond market.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to 1.36 per US dollar. The main driver of the decline was the sharp drop in global oil prices, which plunged 12% to 82 dollars. The rapid correction in the energy market occurred after official confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial shipping. For Canada, as a major commodity exporter, such a decline in export revenues traditionally results in a weaker national currency. Additional pressure on the loonie came from shifting market expectations regarding monetary policy. De‑escalation of the Middle East conflict eased fears of an inflation shock, prompting investors to revise their predictions towards an earlier rate cut by the Bank of Canada.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.27% (weekly +4.84%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.97% (weekly +3.02%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.18% (weekly +2.66%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session up 0.73% (weekly +0.62%). The catalyst for such strong optimism was Tehran’s official announcement of the full resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors interpreted this as real confirmation of Donald Trump’s statement that the active phase of the conflict is nearing its end, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

This week, the Eurozone will focus on preliminary PMI business‑activity indices for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Analysts expect a broad decline in indicators, pointing to a cooling business cycle and a possible shift toward recessionary scenarios in both manufacturing and services. Germany’s leading indicators are of particular concern. The ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to fall to a yearly low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to hit its weakest level since February 2025. These data, along with the upcoming producer‑price index (PPI), may increase pressure on the ECB to reconsider its tight monetary policy.

On Friday, the energy market experienced a massive collapse: WTI crude futures plunged more than 10%, falling below 84 dollars per barrel. This drop pushed prices to a five‑week low and was a direct reaction to the foreign minister’s statement that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels during the ceasefire, effectively removing the threat of a global energy collapse that had weighed on the market for the past month and a half. But on Monday at the open, oil prices surged again. Panic was triggered by reports that US Navy forces seized an Iranian cargo ship by force. The vessel ignored an order to stop while exiting the strait, leading to an armed clash. In response, Iran struck vessels in the region and officially declared the restoration of full control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The silver (XNG) market showed impressive dynamics: prices jumped 5%, reaching 82 dollars per ounce. Investors enthusiastically welcomed the news that the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open to commercial vessels during the ten‑day ceasefire. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Donald Trump confirmed that the US naval blockade will remain in place until a final peace agreement is signed, maintaining a certain risk premium in the market.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.64% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 2.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 1.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.39%.

The PBOC officially confirmed the preservation of benchmark lending rates (LPR) at current levels. This decision marked the eleventh consecutive maintenance of the status quo, fully in line with analysts’ expectations. The Chinese regulator continues to follow a policy of “moderate easing,” balancing the need to support domestic growth with the need to protect the national currency from excessive volatility amid global instability.

This week in monetary policy, decisions by Bank Indonesia and the Central Bank of the Philippines will come into focus. Against the backdrop of global volatility and regional inflation dynamics, their actions will serve as an important signal for investors regarding the resilience of emerging‑market currencies.

On Thursday, the US stock market maintained positive dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.24%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.26%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The leading positions were held by the energy, commodities, and real estate sectors. In the corporate sector, attention was focused on the start of earnings season. Shares of Bank of New York Mellon rose by 1.3% thanks to strong financial results, while PepsiCo shares added a modest 0.3% after publishing a report that exceeded analysts’ expectations for profit and revenue.

On Thursday, European stocks traded without a unified trend. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.36%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session up by 0.29%. According to the minutes of the March meeting, the ECB leadership noted that the Middle East conflict has become a key source of uncertainty, creating a classic monetary‑policy trap: simultaneous risks of accelerating inflation and economic stagnation. Despite this, the regulator remains confident in its ability to manage volatility, noting that the current situation may either drag on or find an unexpected diplomatic solution in the coming months. Although short‑term inflation expectations were significantly revised upward, the ECB’s strategic goal remains unchanged – stabilizing prices at 2% in the medium term. Board members agreed that in such high geopolitical turbulence, the most reasonable tactic is to avoid long‑term commitments.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.78 per US dollar, reaching its highest level in nearly 15 years. The internal agenda of the SNB remains cautious. The published minutes of the March meeting emphasize that the regulator sees the Middle East conflict as a serious threat to price stability. The main risk for the SNB is excessive strengthening of the national currency caused by capital inflows into “safe havens.” An overly strong franc may trigger deflationary pressure and harm Swiss exporters. In this regard, the SNB leadership confirmed its readiness for active currency interventions. The regulator intends to closely monitor market dynamics and, if necessary, intervene by selling francs to prevent its sharp and excessive appreciation.

WTI oil prices rose by 4%, surpassing 95 dollars per barrel. The sharp rise in prices was triggered by a wave of skepticism regarding the success of the diplomatic process between the US and Iran. While earlier the market hoped for a comprehensive agreement and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the focus has now shifted to a less ambitious scenario – the signing of a temporary memorandum aimed only at preventing a new escalation of hostilities. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, the market largely ignored news of a ten‑day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

An additional bullish factor came from fresh data from the US Energy Information Administration. After a long period of accumulation, US crude‑oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 9.13 million barrels. This figure shocked analysts, who had expected a symbolic increase of 154 thousand barrels. Such a significant drop in inventories, combined with reduced imports and strong gasoline demand, confirms tightening supply in the physical market.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG) rose to 2.657 dollars per MMBtu, although quotes still remain near the lows of autumn 2024. The main driver of the local rise was a sharp decline in average daily production, which in recent days fell to a ten‑week low of 108 billion cubic feet. Alongside falling production, high activity is observed in the export sector. Gas flows to US LNG terminals in April increased to 18.9 billion cubic feet per day, approaching historical records. This factor, along with expectations of moderate demand growth in the next two weeks, is preventing prices from falling.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by 2.38% during the session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 1.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up by 1.72%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.26%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.588 US dollars, reacting to domestic economic data that softened expectations of an immediate interest‑rate hike. The main pressure factor was slowing food inflation: in March, food prices (which account for nearly one‑fifth of the consumer basket) rose by 3.4% year‑on‑year compared to 4.5% in February. This is the lowest reading in the past year, indicating a gradual cooling of price pressure. Alongside slowing inflation, a decline in consumer activity was recorded. Monthly growth in core electronic‑card spending slowed by half, from 1.4% to 0.7%. The combination of these factors gives the RBNZ temporary breathing room, reducing the need for emergency monetary tightening in the near term.

According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of 2026, Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.3% year‑on‑year. Although the figure remains relatively high, it indicates a noticeable cooling of economic activity compared to the strong 6.3% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The slowdown affected most key sectors. This was especially evident in services, the most important sector of the economy, where growth fell from 6.3% to 5.4%. Alongside slowing growth, inflationary pressure is increasing. The annual inflation rate in March 2026 accelerated to 1.7% compared to 1.4% in February. This figure matched market expectations and became the highest in more than a year (since January 2025).

On Wednesday, the US stock market continued its upward rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.15%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.80%. The Tech Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.40%. A powerful growth driver came from artificial‑intelligence news: Broadcom shares rose more than 3%, and Meta shares gained nearly 2% amid a deal to deploy specialized 1‑gigawatt AI chips. Investors paid special attention to Tesla shares, which surged more than 7%. Shareholder optimism was driven by updated vehicle software and Elon Musk’s statements about significant progress in developing the advanced AI5 chip. Alongside the tech sector, the financial sector also showed strong growth: Morgan Stanley shares jumped more than 5% thanks to record revenue, and Bank of America shares added 2.5% after a strong quarterly profit report. Geopolitical news also supported overall market sentiment. Donald Trump’s statement that the active phase of the conflict with Iran is nearing its end, combined with the diplomatic mission of Pakistan’s Chief of General Staff in Tehran, strengthened hopes for a long‑term ceasefire.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.27 per dollar, reaching its highest level since late February. The main driver of growth was a combination of global optimism and strong domestic economic indicators. Investors are attracted by high real yields: with a base interest rate of 6.75% and inflation at 4.59%, Mexican assets remain highly sought after. Tight monetary policy combined with slowing consumer‑price growth creates a favorable environment for carry‑trade strategies.

On Wednesday, European stocks mostly declined. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session down 0.47%. The main pressure on the tech sector came from ASML Holding shares, which fell more than 4%. Despite an optimistic full‑year sales outlook, investors were disappointed by the company’s short‑term expectations: second‑quarter revenue is projected at 8.4-9 billion euros, below analysts’ consensus. Although hopes for extending the two‑week ceasefire remain, current financial reports from major European corporations still reflect the real damage caused by regional instability.

Silver prices (XAG) surpassed 80 dollars per ounce, approaching monthly highs. The main driver of growth was investor optimism regarding a possible resumption of diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran. However, even with the current rise, silver prices remain nearly 15% below levels recorded before the conflict began. This indicates that the market has only partially recovered from the initial geopolitical shock.

On Wednesday, WTI oil futures held near 92 dollars per barrel, and high market volatility is likely to persist – traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, trying to identify signs of de‑escalation and a possible resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.44% during the session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.09%.

China’s economy showed unexpected resilience in the first quarter of 2026, posting 5.0% year‑on‑year growth. This result not only exceeded market expectations (4.8%) but also marked a noticeable acceleration after the minimal 4.5% recorded at the end of last year. Beijing managed to effectively cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict through accumulated strategic oil reserves, diversification of energy sources, and strict state control over prices, which prevented shock volatility in the domestic market. The industrial sector remains the main driver, showing growth above the outlook’s levels. At the same time, the consumer sector signals weakness: retail sales fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in 13 months. This indicates that domestic demand remains fragile. The external trade balance also shifted: March saw a sharp slowdown in exports alongside a spike in imports, likely linked to rising logistics and raw‑material costs.

The Australian dollar (AUD) broke through the psychologically important level of 0.70 US dollars, reaching its highest point in nearly four years. The currency’s rise was supported by strong domestic labor‑market data: in March, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and the employment increase of 17.9 thousand was entirely driven by full‑time job creation. This confirms the resilience of Australia’s economy to external shocks. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish rhetoric became the second key factor strengthening the aussie. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed doubt that current interest rates are restrictive enough to contain inflation, which is being fueled by high oil prices. His remarks about possible further tightening forced the market to revise projections: most economists now expect a third consecutive rate hike in May to 4.35%.

On Tuesday, the US stock market showed positive dynamics for the second session in a row. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.66%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.18%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.96%. The main driver of optimism was hopes for the resumption of diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran, which could lead to de‑escalation of the conflict and the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The main inflow of capital was concentrated in the communication services and consumer‑goods sectors, while energy companies were among the underperformers due to falling oil prices.

The IMF revised its expectations for global economic development in 2026, lowering the growth outlook to 3.1%. This is 0.2 percentage points below previous estimates and is attributed to the negative impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the prediction for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.2%. IMF experts emphasize that the current energy crisis caused by the confrontation with Iran is comparable in scale to the oil shock of 1974, although the modern economic system has a higher degree of resilience.

On Tuesday, the European stock market closed in the green. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the trading session up 0.25%. The positive dynamics were driven by hopes for de‑escalation of the Middle East conflict: reports emerged about a possible return of US and Iranian delegations to the negotiating table in Islamabad as early as this week. An additional factor that made the market question the long‑term viability of strict measures was criticism of the maritime blockade of Iranian ports from Saudi Arabia and China, which cast doubt on the effectiveness and sustainability of such restrictions. Siemens shares led the gainers, rising more than 4%.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices showed a sharp decline, falling more than 7% lower to below 92 dollars per barrel, the lowest level in the past three weeks. Donald Trump allowed for the resumption of negotiations in Pakistan within the next two days, and Tehran expressed readiness to temporarily suspend restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the diplomatic process. These developments outweighed concerns related to the officially imposed maritime blockade of Iranian exports by the United States. At the same time, IEA experts expressed serious concern about the long‑term outlook for the market. According to the agency, the prolonged confrontation threatens to completely offset global oil‑demand growth this year, potentially leading to the first annual decline in consumption since the pandemic.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the trading week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90% yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan traded near 6.81 per dollar, holding close to its highest levels in the past three years. The strengthening of the Chinese currency is driven by a combination of domestic economic success and a favorable external environment. According to the current prognosis, China’s GDP will grow by 4.8% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026. This indicates a gradual recovery of activity after slowing to 4.5% at the end of last year, when indicators reached their lowest point since the post‑pandemic reopening of the economy.

Notably, Beijing has managed to minimize the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict. Thanks to consistent efforts toward energy independence and diversification of resource supplies, the impact of geopolitical instability on domestic prices and production remains limited.