InvestMacro

On Thursday, the US stock indices corrected downward after recently updating record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.38%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.13%. Amid overall caution, the technology sector came under pressure: shares of Amazon and several major chipmakers declined after strong previous gains.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened against the US currency, retreating from recent multi‑week highs amid expectations of a more dovish policy from the Bank of Canada and falling oil prices. Additional pressure on the Canadian currency came from weak economic data. The latest GDP statistics indicated a slowdown in economic growth after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which strengthened expectations of a more cautious stance from the central bank.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. This is the lowest level since April 2022. The decision, made by a majority vote (3 to 2), appears to mark the end of the monetary‑policy easing cycle that began in March 2024. The main reason for the cut was the contraction of the Mexican economy in the first quarter of 2026. The regulator noted that the slowdown in business activity led to increased idle capacity and, as a result, weakened demand‑driven inflationary pressure. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that the rate‑cutting period is over: amid global geopolitical instability and trade disputes, keeping the rate at 6.50% in the foreseeable future is considered the most appropriate step.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.25%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.55%.

The Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) unexpectedly raised the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, although the market mostly expected it to remain unchanged. The regulator explained the decision by stating that inflation remains too high and may stay elevated longer due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The bank emphasized that tightening policy is necessary to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe. According to officials, a prolonged period of high prices could anchor inflation expectations among businesses and households, complicating future efforts to control price growth.

Sweden’s Riksbank kept the key rate unchanged at 1.75% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The regulator noted that the current rate level allows for flexible responses to further changes in the economic situation and, if necessary, adjustments to monetary policy to achieve the inflation target. Central bank representatives indicated that risks of accelerating inflation due to the Middle East conflict have increased, but actual price growth remains below target, and recent economic data came in weaker than the March expectations.

On Thursday, WTI oil prices partially recovered after a sharp decline to around $96 per barrel, as markets continued to assess the prospects of supply restoration from Gulf countries. Optimistic statements by Donald Trump about possible progress in negotiations earlier triggered a noticeable drop in oil prices. However, downward pressure on prices remained limited, as market participants doubt a quick recovery of global supply. Another factor is the caution of insurance companies regarding tankers passing through the region after recent attacks. Against this backdrop, supply disruptions have already led to a significant reduction in fuel inventories in the US, where gasoline and distillate reserves have been declining for several weeks in a row.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose more than 2%, approaching $2.79 per MMBtu, after storage data showed a weaker‑than‑expected increase. The volume of gas injected into storage came in below both analyst projections and last year’s levels, as well as below multi‑year averages. The market is also factoring in seasonal cooling‑demand growth, which is gradually beginning to outweigh heating needs.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 5.58% after a long banking holiday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed slightly higher by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 0.96%.

On Wednesday, the US stock markets rose confidently amid improved investor sentiment due to a possible resolution of the conflict with Iran and strong corporate earnings. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 1.24%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.46%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 2.02%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again renewed record highs. Growth was observed in almost all sectors except energy, which came under pressure due to falling oil prices. The main drivers of the market were companies related to artificial intelligence and data‑center infrastructure. AMD and Super Micro Computer showed particularly strong performance after reporting better‑than‑expected results and raising their projections. Additional support came from strong results by Disney and a positive outlook from Uber, which also boosted their shares.

On Wednesday, European stock markets rose sharply amid falling energy prices, which were driven by expectations of a possible resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 2.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 2.94%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 2.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session up positive 2.15%. The decline in oil and gas prices also led to a revision of monetary‑policy expectations: investors began pricing in less aggressive rate hikes, and corporate profit outlooks improved.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG) rose sharply, gaining more than 6% and climbing above $77 per ounce, reaching its highest level in recent weeks. The price increase was driven by easing inflation concerns amid signs of de‑escalation in the Middle East, which put pressure on oil prices. Optimism strengthened after reports of a possible agreement between the US and Iran that could lead to an end to the conflict and the resumption of nuclear negotiations. Against this backdrop, precious metals partially recovered earlier losses, which had been caused by rising energy prices that heightened inflation risks and supported expectations of tighter central‑bank policy.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices fell sharply, dropping about 6% to around $96 per barrel and continuing the decline that began the previous day. The market came under pressure from growing expectations of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Tehran reported that it is considering a US‑backed proposal to end the conflict, and a final response may be delivered through intermediaries soon. Despite signs of de‑escalation, the consequences of the crisis are still being felt: thousands of sailors remain in the region, supply disruptions persist, and high energy prices continue to weigh on global demand, while restoring logistics may take a long time.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 1.30%.

According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) March meeting, many policymakers considered further rate hikes possible if the energy crisis caused by the conflict around Iran persists. Participants noted that short‑term supply disruptions can be viewed as temporary, but prolonged increases in energy prices could strengthen inflation expectations and lead to more persistent price growth in the economy. Some board members advocated more decisive tightening, emphasizing the need to act without long pauses if the economy avoids a significant slowdown. Despite this, at both the March and subsequent April meetings, the Bank of Japan kept the key rate at 0.75%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose above 0.72 US dollars and reached a four‑year high amid a weakening US currency. The Australian dollar was supported by growing optimism around a possible peace agreement in the Middle East, which reduced demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. Meanwhile, domestic economic data came in weaker than expected: in March, Australia unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit for the first time in more than eight years. Additional support for the Australian currency continues to come from the recent central‑bank rate hike to 4.35%.

On Thursday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) held around 0.595 US dollars after rising more than 1% in the previous session, when the currency reached a two‑month high. The market was supported by increased optimism around a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran, which boosted investor interest in riskier assets. Domestic labor‑market data in New Zealand were mixed and did little to change monetary‑policy expectations. Unemployment fell slightly more than expected, but employment growth was weaker than expected. The market still sees the probability of a near‑term rate hike as relatively low, although tightening in the summer is still priced in due to persistent inflation risks linked to high energy prices.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices renewed their historical highs amid a combination of strong corporate earnings and declining energy prices. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.73%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.81%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.31%. The decline in oil prices became an important factor – it partially eased inflation concerns. This occurred against the backdrop of geopolitical signals indicating relative stability in the Middle East despite recent attacks.

The macroeconomic picture remains mixed: JOLTS data confirm the resilience of the labor market, while business activity indicators point to persistent price pressure. This supports a more hawkish tone from some Federal Reserve representatives and maintains uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. At the company level, Intel stood out with growth amid news of possible cooperation with Apple. Micron shares also rose significantly thanks to new products, and Amazon received support due to the development of its logistics operations. Meanwhile, Palantir declined due to investor disappointment in its expectations, and AMD came under pressure ahead of its earnings release.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.80% on Friday, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.40%. The improvement in sentiment was largely driven by falling global energy prices amid expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additional support came from stronger‑than‑expected quarterly corporate results.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held near 0.78 per US dollar, remaining close to historical highs. The currency is supported both by expectations regarding Swiss National Bank policy and by steady demand for safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical tensions. Recent data showed that inflation in Switzerland accelerated to 0.6% in April – the highest level in 16 months. The main factor was rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. This is the second consecutive acceleration of inflation, and the figure exceeded the regulator’s average estimates of 0.5% for the current and next years. The franc continues to benefit from a combination of its “safe haven” status and the relative stability of the domestic macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by about 4% and dropped below $102 per barrel, losing the gains of the previous session. Pressure on prices came from statements by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite recent attacks on the UAE. An additional factor was confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open: according to Hegseth, two US commercial vessels successfully passed through it with military support, which repelled attacks using drones, missiles, and armed boats. This reduced market concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 was also not traded yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by-0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.19%.

In the first quarter of 2026, Hong Kong’s economy delivered a phenomenal result, recording growth of 5.9% year‑on‑year. This figure not only exceeded conservative analyst expectations of 3.5%, but also became the strongest economic surge for the autonomy since the second quarter of 2021, accelerating from 4.0% at the end of last year. In quarterly terms, seasonally adjusted Hong Kong GDP increased by 2.9%, which is also a five‑year high. Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy tied to Federal Reserve rates due to the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, such resilience looks like a strong signal of a full recovery of the Asian financial hub.

In the May Financial Stability Report, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman stated that the national financial system remains highly resilient amid escalating global threats. According to the regulator, the country’s commercial banks have solid capital and liquidity buffers, confirmed by recent stress tests. This allows the banking sector to continue lending to the economy and helping borrowers cope with pressure in foreign funding markets in case the situation worsens. However, the prolonged armed conflict between the US and Iran has already begun to slow New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery. Rising fuel prices and overall uncertainty are hitting consumer activity, worsening labor‑market projections.