13 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: NQ100_m waits on Fed rate decision

By ForexTime 

  • NQ100_m hits fresh 2023 high yesterday
  • Index could be rocked by looming Fed decision
  • Bulls in control but RSI overbought on D1 chart
  • Levels of interest at 16770.6, 16100 & 15800

The NQ100_m jumped to a fresh 2023 high in the previous session after signs of slowing inflation supported hopes around the Fed cutting interest rates next year.

November’s inflation report painted a mixed picture with annual consumer prices slipping to 3.1%, down from 3.2% in October. The annual core figure, which strips out volatile energy and food prices rose by 4% in line with the prior month. However, the monthly core figure rose 0.3%, slightly faster than 0.2% in the previous month.

While traders are still pricing in a 25-basis point cut by May 2024, this could be influenced by the Fed decision later today.

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, so focus will be on the updated economic projections, “dot plot” and Powell’s press conference.

Whatever the outcome of the Fed meeting, it could rock the NQ100_m which is filled with tech stocks that remain sensitive to interest rates.

Redirecting our attention back to the technicals…

The NQ100_m is respecting a bullish channel on the weekly charts with the next key level at the all-time high of 16770.6 created back in November 2021.

It is a similar story on the daily charts with bulls clearly in a position of power. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, signalling that prices are heavily overbought, suggesting a potential throwback down the road.

  • Should 16100 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to charge towards 16770.6

  • A move back below 16100 could trigger a selloff towards 15800 and 15540.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
12 Dec

US CPI: markets are overly confident of Fed pivot

By George Prior 

Markets appear to be overly confident of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the inflation in the US is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

He says: “Inflation remains sticky. The Fed will not want to take the risk of pivoting on policy too soon by cutting rates.

“We believe that the data is still not strong enough for the central bank of the world’s largest economy to commit to reversing its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades – yet the markets seem read to confidently and heavily price-in rate cuts.

“Therefore, we could see a market rally as the year ends, but we think this could be overly optimistic.

“It can be expected that the Fed will leave the US interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.5% range tomorrow (Wednesday) following the last monetary policy meeting of the year.

“But, so far, there’s no pivot in sight.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Inflation is still turning out to be stickier than expected. We expect that markets are pricing-in cuts too quickly. It will be next year before we really know.

“Certainly, some stock surges – such as those which are AI-orientated – are reasonable. Yet many others are getting ahead of themselves.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add that investors should diversify across asset classes to spread risk and capture opportunities arising from different market conditions; and to consider alternative investments that may provide returns less correlated with traditional asset classes.

He concludes: “Will the Fed really pivot with inflation stubborn? We think not.

“Yet markets seem to be getting carried away that the Fed and its peers of major central banks are ready to pivot.

“Significant opportunities remain, but investors should avoid complacency.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
12 Dec

Bank of Japan’s statements mislead investors. Oil is expected to see a rise in fuel demand ahead of the holidays

By JustMarkets

As of Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% yesterday. Stocks found support on Monday on expectations that US consumer prices will continue to decline. Today, the CPI report for November will be released. US CPI is expected to decline to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y in October, while CPI excluding food and energy is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y.

This week, markets will also keep a close eye on the results of the central bank meetings of the Fed, ECB, SNB, and Bank of England to see if policymakers support the suspension of the interest rate hike campaign and when they might start to shift to a softer policy.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 2024 will be a year of strong fundamental growth for stocks of companies that make chips for generative artificial intelligence.

According to the latest polls, Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this Friday for the sixth consecutive time at 11.25%, with discussions of a rate cut not starting until next year. Minutes from the bank’s last monetary policy meeting showed the idea of discussing a key interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

Equity markets in Europe traded on Monday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.21%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.33% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.25%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.13%. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month forecast for the STOXX 600 index to 500, implying a nearly 6% gain through the end of 2024 on expectations of lower interest rates. The broker previously expected the index to end 2024 at 480 points. Meanwhile, GS downgraded its recommendation on European banks to “neutral” as it expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next year.

Swap prices show that the chances of an ECB rate cut in Q1 2024 have decreased. In swaps tied to ECB meeting dates, the probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at its March 7 meeting is 58%, down from 67% recorded last Friday.

Crude oil prices recovered from early losses on Monday and posted a slight gain after the American Automobile Association (AAA) predicted a record number of air travelers during the Christmas week, which will have a positive impact on fuel demand. AAA predicted that a record 7.5 million people will use air transportation services between December 23 and January 2.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.5%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.13% on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.81% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.06%.

Even late last week, the market was dominated by rumors that the Bank of Japan was planning an exit from negative interest rates. But yesterday, BoJ officials said that they see no need to rush to abandon the negative interest rate policy as there is insufficient evidence of wage growth to support sustainable inflation. Such an approach could undermine investor confidence in the yen and the JP225, so the Bank of Japan should be more consistent.

Japan’s BSI Large Manufacturing Business Conditions Index rose from 5.4 to 5.7 in Q3, the highest reading in 2 years.

Australia’s updated mid-year budget will include about A$10 billion ($6.56 billion) in savings as the government seeks to cut spending in an attempt to contain high inflation. Australian households are under financial pressure from high inflation and rising interest rates, but the vast majority of borrowers can service their loans. That means the RBA has room to keep rates high for longer.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,622.44 +18.07 (+0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,404.93 +157.06 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40)  16,794.43 +35.21 (+0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,544.89 −9.58 (−0.13%)

USD Index  103.97 -0.01 (-0.01%)

News feed for 2023.12.12:
  • – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 00:20 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Dec

Gold bears eye weekly support ahead of US CPI

By ForexTime 

  • Gold bearish on daily timeframe
  • 4 potential targets identified on H4 chart.
  • Bearish scenario invalidated above 2039.91
  • Watch out for US CPI report this afternoon

After the spectacular bearish move on Monday 4th December, gold is back in bearish territory.

This is reflected in the daily timeframe where prices are busy with an impulse in the current downtrend. Bears seem to be aiming for the next weekly support level around 1931.35 with the negative momentum increasing after the solid daily close below the psychological $2000 level. Nevertheless, looking at the 4-hour timeframe might give more insight into what to expect from the precious metal over the next few sessions.

Before we take a deeper dive into the technicals, it is worth keeping in mind that fundamental forces could impact the precious metals’ outlook this week.

The incoming US CPI report released this afternoon could impact expectations around what actions the Fed will take in 2024, ultimately influencing gold.

A softer-than-expected inflation figure may support gold, while a higher-than-expected figure has the potential to drag the precious metal lower.

Shifting our focus back to technicals…

The 4-hour chart validates the daily scenario with a downtrend in progress. The bearish impetus is further confirmed by the price being below the 50 Exponential Moving Average. Both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are also beneath their respective base lines.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level below the last lower bottom at 1975.75 and dragging it above the 50 Exponential Moving Average at 2039.91, four possible targets can be determined:

  • The first potential target is at 1950.09 (Target 1).

  • The second price target is likely at 1937.25 (Target 2).

  • The third price target is possible at 1911.59 (Target 3) if the price has enough momentum to break through the weekly support level.

  • The fourth and last price target is feasible at 1879.51 (Target 4) if the bears can continue their rule for long enough.

If the price at 2039.91 is broken, this scenario is no longer valid.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Dec

AI’s impact on 3 key industries will pique investors’ interest in 2024

By George Prior 

Investors should strategically position their portfolios in 2024 to capitalize on the opportunities offered by AI for certain sectors, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest financial advisory and asset management organizations.

deVere Group’s Nigel Green is speaking out after what has been a pivotal year in the AI space, characterized by major company moves from tech titans, pioneering initiatives, groundbreaking product launches, huge investments and strategic acquisitions.

He says: “AI stands at the forefront of technological innovation, poised to catalyze a profound transformation across industries. The potential for a significant boost in productivity is particularly evident in sectors such as financials, airlines, and healthcare.

“The financial industry is experiencing a paradigm shift with the integration of AI technologies. Machine learning algorithms, natural language processing, and predictive analytics are revolutionising processes, from risk management to customer service.

“AI-driven insights enable financial institutions to make data-driven decisions, enhance fraud detection, and streamline operations. Investors should consider seizing potential opportunities in this sector by looking at investments in fintech companies and financial institutions embracing AI to gain a competitive edge.

He continues: “AI-powered algorithms can analyze vast datasets and execute trades with speed and precision, providing a potential boost to investment returns – as such, investors could consider exposure to funds or companies specializing in algorithmic trading strategies.

“Also, as AI enhances risk assessment by analyzing complex patterns and identifying potential threats, investors may find opportunities in companies developing innovative risk management solutions for financial institutions.”

The aviation industry is ripe for AI-driven productivity enhancements, from optimizing flight routes to enhancing customer experience. AI’s potential impact on airlines extends to fuel efficiency, predictive maintenance, and personalised services.

Algorithms can analyse historical data, weather patterns, and other variables to optimize flight routes, reducing fuel consumption and operational costs. In addition, chatbots and virtual assistants powered by AI can streamline customer interactions, providing real-time support and personalized services.

“Savvy investors are likely to explore opportunities in airlines adopting AI for route optimization; and companies investing in AI-driven customer service solutions may present attractive investment opportunities.”

Moving onto healthcare, AI is becoming a transformative force, contributing to improved diagnostics, personalized treatment plans, and operational efficiencies. As the industry embraces AI-driven innovations, investors can position their portfolios to benefit from the growth potential.

AI algorithms can analyze medical images and data to enhance diagnostic accuracy. It can also accelerate the drug discovery process by studying biological data and identifying potential drug candidates.

“Companies developing AI-powered diagnostic tools and technologies may present investment opportunities in the healthcare sector, and investors may consider pharma companies leveraging AI for drug development.”

The deVere CEO says there are three main reasons why investors should position their portfolios accordingly.

First, innovation potential. “Industries integrating AI are likely to experience unprecedented innovation, creating opportunities for investors to capitalise on the growth of forward-thinking companies at the forefront of technological advancement.

Second, competitive advantage: “Companies embracing AI technologies gain a competitive edge by improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing decision-making processes. Investors positioning their portfolios in such companies could benefit from their ability to outperform industry peers.”

Third long-term growth: “AI’s transformative impact is not a fleeting trend; it represents a long-term paradigm shift. As such, investors with a strategic focus on AI-driven sectors could position their portfolios for sustained growth over the coming years.

Nigel Green concludes: “Artificial Intelligence’s potential to boost productivity in industries like financials, airlines, and healthcare is a compelling narrative for investors.

“By strategically positioning portfolios to capture opportunities in companies at the forefront of AI adoption, investors can align themselves with the transformative forces shaping the future of these industries.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
11 Dec

The ECB and Fed will cut rates sooner than the BoE. Deflationary processes are intensifying in China

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.82% (+0.44% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.41% (+0.88% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed up by 0.45% (+1.66% for the week) on Friday. Stocks initially declined on Friday, and bond yields jumped after the monthly labor market report showed a larger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for November and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to a 4-month low, dampening speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of next year. However, stocks reversed and headed higher as inflation expectations eased, and a larger-than-expected increase in the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index for December improved prospects for a soft landing.

US nonfarm payroll employment for November rose by 199,000, exceeding expectations of 185,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to a 4-month low of 3.7% in November, indicating a stronger labor market. Average hourly earnings in the US for November were up by 4.0% y/y, unchanged from October and in line with expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December rose by 8.1 to a 4-month high of 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.0. Inflation expectations for 5-10-year inflation also declined in December to 2.8% from 3.2% in November, better than expectations of 3.1%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (+2.25% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.32% (+2.66% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.76% (+0.86% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.54% (+0.33% for the week).

Ahead of the December European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, there is growing evidence that the Governing Council is divided on what to present to the markets. Typically hawkish Isabel Schnabel made strong dovish hints by ruling out a rate hike this week, and markets are now pricing in a 135 bps rate cut over the next 12 months. A reassessment of inflation expectations has played a leading role in lowering rates and raising expectations for the first rate cut late in the first quarter of next year.

No rate changes are expected at Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, but the Bank of England will counter the rising tide of rate cut expectations. Bank Governor Bailey recently indicated his stance on more rate hikes in an attempt to curb speculation of an imminent rate cut. Markets are predicting three rate cuts in 2024 from the BoE, but the first rate cut won’t come until June 2024 at the earliest, while the ECB and the US Fed could cut rates as early as March-April 2024.

Oil rose on Friday after better-than-expected US economic reports on November payrolls and December consumer sentiment eased recession fears and bolstered prospects for a soft landing, a positive for energy demand and oil prices. In addition, the US plans to replenish the strategic oil reserve by supporting oil. The US Department of Energy released a request to purchase up to 3 million barrels of oil with delivery in March to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This was in addition to a previous tender to buy the same volume in February. The Energy Ministry said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to replenish the reserve until at least May next year.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 3.03% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 3.06% for the five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.46% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.72% for the week.

Japan’s Q3 GDP data was unexpectedly revised downward to 2.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of 2.0% and the sharpest rate of contraction since the pandemic. The Q3 GDP deflator was revised upward to a record 5.3% y/y from 5.1% y/y.

China’s consumer price index fell by 0.5% in November from the previous month. The index was weaker than expectations of a 0.1% drop and also worsened from October’s 0.1% decline. On an annualized basis, CPI inflation fell by 0.5%, the lowest reading in 3 years. The data contradicts a recent statement from the head of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), who said inflation would go up. The decline in inflation came despite continued liquidity injections from the government and signaled that Beijing needs to do more to support economic activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,604.37 +18.78 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,247.87 +130.49 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 16,759.22 +130.23 (+0.78%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,554.47 +40.75 (+0.54%)

USD Index 103.98 +0.44 (+0.43%)

News feed for 2023.12.11:
  • – Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
11 Dec

Trade Of The Week: SPX500_m gearing up for event heavy week

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m hits new 2023 high last Friday
  • Stock index set to be injected with fresh volatility
  • Keep eye on US CPI and Fed decision
  • SPX500_m bullish on D1 chart but RSI signals overbought
  • Key levels of interest at 4640, 4600 and 4545

After hitting a new 2023 high last Friday, the SPX500_m could be injected with fresh volatility this week due to a series of high-risk events.

US equity bulls remain in the driver’s seat with the SPX500_m bagging its sixth week of gains after the strong US jobs data boosted hopes around the US economy avoiding a recession. The stock Index has also drawn strength from growing bets over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year amid slowing inflation.

Taking a brief peek at the technicals, prices are trending higher on the daily charts. Despite the recent breakout above 4600, it may be worth keeping an eye on the range with support found at 4545.

The next few days could be wild for the SPX500_m and here are 3 reasons why:

       1. US data dump

It’s a big week for the US economy thanks to top-tier economic reports including the highly anticipated US CPI report on Tuesday.

This crucial inflation report along with the latest retail sales and industrial production among others could influence bets around what the Fed will do beyond 2023. As highlighted in our week ahead report, headline inflation is expected to have cooled further due to falling energy prices, while the annual core inflation to remain unchanged.

Given how the S&P 500 Index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, the incoming US inflation figures have the ability to rock the index.

  • The SPX500_m could pull away from the 2023 high if the inflation report exceeds market forecasts.
  • Should the inflation numbers print below expectations, this could push the index higher as Fed rate cut bets jump.

       2. Fed rate decision

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, so the focus falls on the updated economic projections and dot plots for fresh clarity on its next move.

  • The SPX500_m could push higher if the doves dominate the scene with the Fed signalling cuts in 2024.
  • If the Fed pushes back hopes for rate cuts and reiterates the higher for longer mantra, this may pull the SPX500_m lower.

Note: Looking beyond US data and the Fed decision, it may be worth keeping an eye on the “Triple witching”. 

US markets may see a sudden jump in volumes on Friday as Futures and Options contracts on Stocks and Indices expire in what is called “Triple witching”. This happens once a quarter and has the potential to cause some market volatility.

       3. Technical forces

Regarding the technical picture, prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 70 suggesting that prices are heavily overbought. A technical throwback could be on the table before the index pushes higher.

  • Should prices stay above the 4600 level, this may open a path towards the 4640 level – the highest level touched in March 2022.
  • Sustained below 4600 may trigger a selloff back towards 4525
  • Should 4525 prove to be unreliable support, a decline back towards 4500 and 4470 could be on the cards.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
11 Dec

Euro Shows Temporary Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Euro’s recent stabilization against the US dollar, now hovering around 1.0766, may be short-lived. Market eyes are turning towards the upcoming two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, starting Tuesday and concluding late Wednesday. Key attention will be on the interest rate decision, widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.50% annually.

Investor focus is keenly set on the Fed’s potential moves for February and March, with speculation rife about a possible rate reduction by the end of Q1. Any hints or signals in this regard will be crucial for market dynamics.

Monday’s calendar is light, with no major statistics due from either the Eurozone or the US. The real action is expected to start Tuesday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, a decline impulse to 1.0804 has been observed. Currently, the market has formed a consolidation range around it. A downward wave to 1.0704 could develop today. This practically implies a breakout from the range downwards, opening the potential for further trend development towards 1.0594. This is the first target. Once the quotes reach it, a correction to 1.0800 might start, followed by a decline to 1.0400. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, where its signal line is below zero, pointing strictly downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the quotes have rebounded from 1.0805. A structure of a declining wave to 1.0705 is forming. After reaching this level, a correction link to 1.0760 cannot be ruled out (a test from below). Next, a decline to 1.0655 could follow. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and a potential drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
10 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,460 contracts) with Silver (2,023 contracts), Copper (1,878 contracts) and Steel (66 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,901 contracts) with Palladium (-1,081 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold487,46930203,54467-226,9453623,40143
Silver139,7533236,30370-52,0143115,71154
Copper176,37324-1,994302,13973-14518
Palladium21,27172-11,252211,27799-2540
Platinum75,508675,13327-9,183744,05022

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (99 percent) and Silver (70 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Platinum (27 percent) and Copper (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (70.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.2 percent)
Copper (30.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (28.6 percent)
Platinum (27.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.7 percent)
Palladium (1.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (98.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.6 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (24 percent) and Steel (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-0.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (23.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.4 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.7 percent)
Copper (16.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (13.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.4 percent)
Palladium (-0.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (20.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (21.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 203,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.321.29.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.567.74.9
– Net Position:203,544-226,94523,401
– Gross Longs:288,840103,19347,483
– Gross Shorts:85,296330,13824,082
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.736.342.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-23.619.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.329.318.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.366.57.6
– Net Position:36,303-52,01415,711
– Gross Longs:63,24140,97426,387
– Gross Shorts:26,93892,98810,676
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.130.953.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-21.130.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.639.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.738.17.7
– Net Position:-1,9942,139-145
– Gross Longs:62,78069,40213,390
– Gross Shorts:64,77467,26313,535
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.373.417.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-15.93.1

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.529.710.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.741.94.9
– Net Position:5,133-9,1834,050
– Gross Longs:37,39522,4487,743
– Gross Shorts:32,26231,6313,693
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.474.522.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-9.0-16.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.160.28.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.07.28.9
– Net Position:-11,25211,277-25
– Gross Longs:4,92012,8141,859
– Gross Shorts:16,1721,5371,884
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 18.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.698.840.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.2-10.8

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 66 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.568.22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.469.50.7
– Net Position:-167-241408
– Gross Longs:4,70712,586543
– Gross Shorts:4,87412,827135
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 14.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.80.277.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-22.955.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 Dec

Currency Speculators raised their British Pound bets into bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (19,560 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (17,363 contracts), the Australian Dollar (13,538 contracts), the EuroFX (9,195 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,971 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (5,394 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,281 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,159 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,437 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (857 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The only currency (cryptocurrency) seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Bitcoin with a dip by -505 contracts.

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by almost +20,000 contracts, following up on last week’s gain by +18,203 contracts. The GBP speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +32,036 contracts over that period.

This bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +11,665 contracts) back into an overall bullish level for the first time since September 26th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar took a breather this week after gaining for three consecutive weeks and touching over the 1.2700 level. The Sterling’s exchange descended this week to the major psychological support level of 1.2500 but managed to bounce from that major support back up to 1.2551 to close out the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,4513619,94458-19,56145-3835
EUR756,61565152,36085-188,9291836,56937
GBP218,8734811,66564-11,9833931859
JPY267,48287-104,95614106,21887-1,26251
CHF60,35696-17,852823,71383-5,86140
CAD197,79159-57,8481163,29091-5,44211
AUD195,56954-57,6813654,899582,78259
NZD54,73268-16,4501315,215791,23565
MXN257,0535873,45684-78,636155,18044
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL72,4875950,244100-52,08911,84552
Bitcoin23,035100-2,250331,387086333

 

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (100 percent) and the EuroFX (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (84 percent), British Pound (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (8 percent),  the Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (58.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (63.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the EuroFX (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent), Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.1 percent)
EuroFX (28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-27.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-31.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.717.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.465.78.1
– Net Position:19,944-19,561-383
– Gross Longs:28,1997,0092,891
– Gross Shorts:8,25526,5703,274
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.244.74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.5-14.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 152,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.153.511.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.078.46.5
– Net Position:152,360-188,92936,569
– Gross Longs:235,684404,55085,929
– Gross Shorts:83,324593,47949,360
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.218.537.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.6-30.322.1

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.349.913.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.055.312.9
– Net Position:11,665-11,983318
– Gross Longs:66,359109,11228,621
– Gross Shorts:54,694121,09528,303
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.939.058.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-22.017.7

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -104,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.668.815.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.829.116.1
– Net Position:-104,956106,218-1,262
– Gross Longs:28,266184,15641,899
– Gross Shorts:133,22277,93843,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.086.950.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.90.78.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.269.921.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.830.630.7
– Net Position:-17,85223,713-5,861
– Gross Longs:3,73242,16412,655
– Gross Shorts:21,58418,45118,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.982.540.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.8-6.222.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.071.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.239.417.4
– Net Position:-57,84863,290-5,442
– Gross Longs:19,753141,25929,036
– Gross Shorts:77,60177,96934,478
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.591.010.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.76.0-1.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.863.613.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.335.512.2
– Net Position:-57,68154,8992,782
– Gross Longs:32,886124,38826,639
– Gross Shorts:90,56769,48923,857
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.058.459.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.3-33.145.2

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -16,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.666.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.638.66.7
– Net Position:-16,45015,2151,235
– Gross Longs:11,79636,3584,902
– Gross Shorts:28,24621,1433,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.679.464.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.4-1.952.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.451.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.882.40.7
– Net Position:73,456-78,6365,180
– Gross Longs:108,921133,0636,872
– Gross Shorts:35,465211,6991,692
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 14.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.014.544.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-22.818.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.021.24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.793.12.2
– Net Position:50,244-52,0891,845
– Gross Longs:53,67415,3683,437
– Gross Shorts:3,43067,4571,592
– Long to Short Ratio:15.6 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.70.651.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.5-56.91.2

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.78.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.52.23.4
– Net Position:-2,2501,387863
– Gross Longs:17,9071,8951,641
– Gross Shorts:20,157508778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.5100.032.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.046.4-0.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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