S&P 500 index hits record high amidst lower inflation

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The US stock market has surged to new heights, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high of 5,325 points and the DJIA index touching 40,000 points. Investors are experiencing euphoria, spurred by the unexpectedly low US inflation figures released earlier.

Inflation has recently been a critical driver of market volatility, thus its stabilisation is a cause for significant optimism. The April CPI increase, lower than expected at just 0.3% month-on-month, suggests a potential return to a downward inflation trajectory. Year-on-year, the CPI climbed by 3.4% in April, a slight dip from 3.5% in March. Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%, and while there was progress, the current deceleration is encouraging for investors.

The April inflation report marked the first decline in year-on-year inflation since January 2024. The CPI rose slower, raising market hopes that the Federal Reserve might soon ease monetary conditions.

Technical analysis of S&P 500

On the H4 chart of the S&P 500 index, a consolidation range has formed around the 5188.0 level. With an upward breakout, extending the fifth wave to 5363.0 is possible. The growth link to 5315.0 has been executed, and we now expect a consolidation range to form around this level. A downward breakout could lead to a range expansion to 5250.5, while an upward breakout could extend to 5363.0. The market is developing the fifth wave of growth without any significant correction, and a sharp decline along the trend to 4735.0 could begin at any moment. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line at the maximums and pointing strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the upward move to 5315.5 has been completed. A consolidation range is forming around this level, and a downward impulse to 5296.0 has been fulfilled. We expect a growth link to 5315.5 (testing from below) today. A downward breakout from the range could lead to a continuation of the decrease wave to 5250.5. The Stochastic oscillator technically confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and expected to rise to 80, indicating a potential for continued growth.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Stock indices have hit all-time highs. The Australian labor market is starting to cool down

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index increased by 0.88%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 1.17%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.41%. All three indices hit all-time highs yesterday. Stocks rose on lower bond yields after US consumer prices declined as expected. In addition, reports on the US retail sales, the Empire Manufacturing Index, and the NAHB Housing Index were weaker than expected, raising the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates this year.

The US Consumer Price Index for April declined to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% y/y in March, which was in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy (core) for April declined to 3.6% y/y from 3.8% y/y in March, matching expectations and the lowest in 3 years. The US retail sales for April were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. However, retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.2% m/m in April, which was in line with expectations. The Empire’s Index of overall business conditions in the US manufacturing sector for May unexpectedly declined by 1.3 to 15.6, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to 10.0.

Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% at the June 11–12 FOMC meeting and 38% at the next meeting on July 30–31.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.82%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.21%.

Yesterday’s bullish factor for the European indices was the dovish comments of ECB Governing Council representative Villeroy de Galhau, who said that Eurozone inflation data for April gives the ECB confidence that it will start cutting interest rates in June. The Eurozone industrial production for March rose by 0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.4% m/m. The European Commission predicts the Eurozone GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024, unchanged from the February estimate, and downgrades the Eurozone inflation projection for 2024 to 2.5% from the February prognosis of 2.7%.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as a larger-than-expected decline in weekly US crude inventories supported oil prices. EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels last week, declining for the second week and beating prognoses for a decline of 1.362 million barrels. In addition, weak US inflation data for April bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, boosting the demand outlook. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency cut its prognosis for global demand growth this year by 140,000 barrels daily to 1.1 million.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.35%.

The flash data showed that Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2024, compared with market estimates of a 0.4% drop following a downwardly revised stagnation in the previous quarter. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter (-0.7% vs. -0.4% in Q4), worse than prognoses for a 0.2% decline and the sharpest drop in three quarters, as consumers continue to cut back amid high cost of living and low wages and in the aftermath of the Noto Peninsula earthquake earlier this year.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in April 2024, compared to market prognoses and an upwardly revised 3.9% in the previous month. New data that the country’s wage growth unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter supported the RBA’s dovish outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,308.15 +61.47 (+1.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,908.00 +349.89 (+0.88%)

DAX (DE40) 18,869.36 +152.94 (+0.82%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,445.80 +17.67 (+0.21%)

USD Index 104.32 −0.69 (−0.66%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:50 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Target Thursdays: USDInd, Soybean & EU50 hit targets!

By ForexTime 

  • USDInd bears take home 600 points!
  • Soybean: No fireworks but H1 bullish target hit!
  • EU50 secures ALL 4 bearish targets

The recent resurgence of the meme-stock mania and cooling US inflation data have certainly made this an eventful week for markets!

And more volatility could be on the horizon due to more data and speeches by numerous Fed officials.

Here are how these discussed instruments performed this week:

    1) Dollar loosens grip on throne

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our week ahead article published on Friday, 10th May:

We discussed how this could be a volatile week for the USDInd due to high impact data.

Our technical section highlighted how a “solid breakdown below 105.00 could encourage a decline toward the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The USDInd collapsed like a house of cards on Wednesday after soft US inflation data reinforced bets around the Fed cutting rates in 2024.

Traders are now pricing in a 93% probability of a 25-basis point cut by September, with another one expected by December.

The dollar has weakened against every single G10 currency this week.

Note: USDInd could see more volatility this afternoon due to speeches from three Fed officials and more key data.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

600 points for traders who entered the USDInd from the 105.00 level and exited at the 200-day SMA.

 

    2) FXTM’s Soybean hits H1 target

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

There were no fireworks or explosive moves on FXTM’s Soybean this week, but it remains on breakout watch.

Still, on Tuesday we suggested that if “prices push back above the 50 SMA, this could open a path back to 1211.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

As discussed earlier, prices were trapped within a range on the H1 timeframe this week.

After bouncing from the 1188 level and breaking above the 50 SMA, prices hit the 1211 target price on Wednesday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above the 50 H1 SMA and exited at 1211 would have caught a 1% move to the upside.

 

    3) EU50 tumbles past all bearish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EU50) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day, before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals. 

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EU50 was under pressure this morning due to downbeat corporate news from European companies.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

EU50 has hit all 4 bearish targets.

Traders who entered at 5104.5 and exited at the final target level of 5094.0 would have gained roughly 10 pips.

 

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

JPY has sharply strengthened

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The yen’s exchange rate rose to the US dollar on Thursday in response to improving prospects for the Federal Reserve interest rate. The USDJPY pair has declined to 153.88.

After the US released up-to-date data on April inflation, the likelihood of a reduction in the cost of borrowing in the country increased markedly. Both the overall and the core consumer price index slowed in April, while retail sales stagnated. Hypothetically, an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve means a narrower gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan’s monetary approaches, which is a positive signal for the yen.

Japan’s GDP statistics were weaker than expected, with Japan’s economy contracting by 2.0% y/y in Q1 2024 compared to the expected decline of 1.5%. The primary driver is weak private consumption, which has been declining for four consecutive quarters.

Such a report considerably complicates the operations of the Bank of Japan. The regulator needs to take actions to keep a balance between supporting the economy and fighting the consequences of the weak yen.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has completed a corrective wave, reaching 156.76. Today, another decline towards 151.40 is forming. After the price reaches this level, a correction could start, aiming for 154.80 (testing from below). Subsequently, the trend might continue to 149.00 representing the first target of the decline wave. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD oscillator, with its signal line below the zero level, directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY has completed an impulse structure, reaching 154.80. A narrow consolidation range has formed around this level. Today, with a downward breakout, the price has reached the local target of 153.60. Next, a rise to 154.80 (testing from below) is expected, followed by another possible decline wave, aiming for 152.90 and potentially continuing to 151.40. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 20, poised to rise to the 80 mark.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged. The US stock indices rise despite rising manufacturing inflation

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%, while the Samp;P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.75%. The S&P 500 (US500) hit a 5-week high and the NASDAQ (US100) hit a 1-month high. Stocks rose on lower bond yields due to dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said he did not think it was likely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike but likely the rate would be at current levels for longer.

US producer prices rose by 0.5% m/m in April 2024 after a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in March and well above estimates of 0.3%. Services prices rose by 0.6%, the highest since July, after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in March.

The US will release its April inflation report today. Economists expect consumer inflation to increase by 0.4% monthly, while on an annualized basis, it is expected to decline slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors will assess the inflation report that price pressures are finally easing after months of sustained inflation. In addition, the year-over-year increase in oil prices has stalled, reinforcing the likelihood of a critical rate cut. Typically, rising oil prices can lead to a new bout of rising inflation; these indicators are directly correlated. Thus, if the data shows that the latest consumer price momentum was temporary and inflation has started to fall again, this could harm Treasury yields and the US dollar, giving risk assets (euro, pound, stock indices) room to rise. But any surprise in the form of increasing inflationary pressures or even higher-than-forecast figures could trigger a rise in the US dollar, hurting indices and precious metals.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.16%.

Wunsch, an ECB Governing Council member, said the ECB should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates further after a likely first cut in June as “wage pressures persist, keeping service sector inflation at high levels.”

Sweden’s annual inflation rate in April 2024 fell to 3.9% from 4.1% in the previous month, below market predictions of 4.0%. This is the lowest rate since January 2022.

WTI crude prices rose to $79 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses as wildfires in Canada threatened the country’s oil sands industry, capable of producing 3.3 million barrels daily. Oil prices were also supported by industry data that showed US crude inventories fell by 3.104 million barrels last week, beating prognoses for a 1.35 million barrel decline. Official data from the US EIA will be released later today. Meanwhile, the latest OPEC report showed that OPEC+ members exceeded the agreed limit, pumping 568,000 barrels per day last month. Despite this, OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand, predicting growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million in 2025.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.32% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was 0.22% cheaper, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.30%.

The offshore yuan rose to 7.22 per dollar, rebounding from two-week lows. As expected, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one-year medium-term lending rate at 2.5% during its May meeting. The move is part of the Central Bank’s ongoing efforts to stabilize the yuan.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.664, hitting its highest level in two months, as the dollar weakened ahead of the release of crucial US inflation data and markets bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. At the same time, investors reacted to data showing an unexpected slowdown in Australian wage growth in the first quarter, which supported a dovish view of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. Elsewhere, the annual budget was released this week, with the Australian government aiming to reduce core inflation and ease cost-of-living pressures by spending billions to cut energy bills and rents and reducing income taxes.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,246.68 +25.26 (+0.48%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,558.11 +126.60 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,716.42 −25.80 (−0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,428.13 +13.14 (+0.16%)

USD Index 105.01 −0.20 (-0.19%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 22:20 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Meme-stock mania: Will GameStop, AMC stocks surge even higher?

By ForexTime

  • GameStop ↑ 179% this week
  • ↑ as much as 32.6% pre-market
  • 2nd most traded US stock pre-market
  • Is meme stock craze here to stay?
  • Heavily bullish on D1 chart

In case you missed it, GameStop and other pandemic-era meme stocks roared back to life!

The trigger? “Roaring Kitty”, a.k.a. Keith Gill posted one cryptic meme.

Source: Twitter 

For anyone asking – a meme stock is a stock that has essentially gone viral among retail investors, ignoring the core fundamentals.

To put things into context, this week:

  • GameStop: up 179%
  • AMC stocks: up 135%
  • Beyond Meat: 12%
  • Blackberry: almost 20%

Is the mania here to stay?

Well, GameStop shares rose as much as 32.6% in today’s pre-market, while AMC jumped as much as 23%! In addition, they are also the two most traded US stocks pre-market!

A blast from the past…

The aggressively bullish price action this week certainly creates a sense of Déjà vu…

Taking a trip back memory lane, “Roaring Kitty” was at the heart of the meme craze in 2021 that saw a fierce battle between retail traders and hedge funds.

GameStop soared more than 2000% in early 2021 as retail traders banded together. As prices rose, short sellers were squeezed out of their position – fueling upside gains!

However, after peaking in January prices came crashing down within weeks as the excitement fizzled.

One of the biggest takeaways was that while meme stocks may surge due to growing interest, they may fall as fast if sentiment shifts. This was reflected in price action as GameStop gave back most of its eye-popping gains in a two-week window.

Looking ahead 

If the mania continues, GameStop and AMC among other meme stocks are likely to ignore the incoming US CPI report.

How long will this mania last? It is anybody’s guess but looking at what happened in 2021, GameStop witnessed 9 consecutive days of double-digit gains/losses.

Although the current rally has nothing to do with technicals or fundamentals, the charts show that bulls are in the driving seat. More volatility could be on the cards if this mania is here to stay.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Euro climbs to five-week high ahead of US CPI data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair reached a five-week high at 1.0822, buoyed by positive market sentiment ahead of today’s crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in inflation for April, a slight decrease from the 0.4% rise in March.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently provided a confident assessment of the US economy, predicting above-trend GDP growth and a decline in inflation. Despite some recent data that has slightly challenged this optimism, Powell’s outlook remains resilient. This year’s unexpected surge in US consumer prices has led to a revision in the Fed’s interest rate cut forecasts, with the market now anticipating a 45-basis point reduction by the end of 2024.

Investor expectations have significantly shifted throughout the year. They anticipated six rate cuts at the beginning of 2024, but now they only foresee a maximum of one by May. The Fed’s future decisions depend heavily on ongoing price trends and inflation forecasts.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range around 1.0785. With an upward exit from this range, a continuation of the correction is expected. The growth to 1.0827 has already been achieved, and a retraction to 1.0805 (testing from above) is anticipated today. Subsequent developments may lead to an increase towards 1.0844. This growth pattern from the level of 1.0601 is viewed as a correction to the last decline wave. Following its completion, a new wave of decline to 1.0600 is expected. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and directed upwards, although histograms are at maximums and preparing for a decline.

On the H1 chart, after reaching 1.0805, a consolidation range was established above this level. Following an upward breakout, the price moved to 1.0827. Once this level is tested, a potential decline to 1.0805 (testing from above) could occur, leading to further growth towards 1.0844. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this technical outlook, with its signal line currently above 80. A decline to 50 followed by a rebound to 80 is expected, then a potential drop to 20, indicating upcoming fluctuations.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Sports gambling creates a windfall, but raises questions of integrity – here are three lessons from historic sports-betting scandals

By Jared Bahir Browsh, University of Colorado Boulder 

Sports betting is having a big moment across the United States. While gambling on sports has been legal for decades in countries such as the U.K., it wasn’t until 2018 that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states could legalize sports betting. Before then, sports betting had been permitted only in Nevada.

After the Supreme Court decision, the floodgates opened. Many states were happy to legalize sports gambling, enticed by the opportunity for more tax revenue. As of May 2024, sports gambling is legal in 38 states and Washington, D.C. Americans wagered nearly US$120 billion on sports in 2023 alone.

Until about 10 years ago, sports leagues in North America were apprehensive about – if not totally against – legalizing sports betting. The long history of sports gambling scandals in the U.S. led many to worry that legalizing sports betting would tarnish their sports’ credibility and image. The NCAA was one of many governing bodies that objected to legalizing sports gambling nationwide.

But now that the Supreme Court has blessed it, sports leagues have embraced gambling, forming partnerships with brands like Caesars Entertainment. The sportsbooks and platforms have integrity monitors to track potential inconsistencies. Still, a number of scandals involving athletes and the people around them have emerged since the Supreme Court ruling.

As a professor of critical sports studies, I teach students about the history of sports betting scandals. And I think they offer lessons for the present day.

Disgruntled players and pay disputes lead to temptation

The Black Sox Scandal of 1919 helped to further organize baseball, leading to the creation of the position of commissioner of baseball, which was first assumed by former judge and known racist Kennesaw Mountain Landis. Along with maintaining the color line, arguably his most notable action was banning, for life, the players on the Chicago White Sox involved in the fixing of the 1919 World Series.

Early professional baseball regulations explicitly banned gambling, but the money was too tempting for many players to ignore – and that included members of the 1919 White Sox. The players hated the team’s owner, Charles Comiskey, and felt that they were underpaid. But they were unable to change teams due to the reserve clause in their contracts, which gave owners exclusive rights to their players in perpetuity.

A faction of the team agreed to throw the World Series. Those players were ultimately indicted by a grand jury and went to trial. They were acquitted of criminal charges, but Landis suspended all of the players connected to the fix – including superstar “Shoeless” Joe Jackson, who admitted taking money from a teammate but maintained he was innocent of game fixing.

This was the the most notable of several attempts to fix baseball games early in the 20th century, as the game grew in popularity and a number of people associated with baseball, including players, managers and even umpires, looked to cash in.

Addiction isn’t limited to substances

Athlete salaries have soared in recent decades. However, this money hasn’t shielded players and others involved in sports from the grips of gambling addiction.

There are no rules banning athletes from sitting at a blackjack table or even gambling on other sports. Numerous players have wagered millions of dollars, with some athletes building up massive debts due to addiction.

These debts can lead to such desperation that athletes decide to risk their careers. Baseball legend and admitted compulsive gambler Pete Rose continues to sit outside the Hall of Fame because he bet on baseball games.

The most substantial gambling scandal in modern sports came in the NBA during the 2000s, involving referee Tim Donaghy. He admitted to providing information on NBA games, including those he officiated, which allegedly influenced his calls. Donaghy served time in prison as a result. So it isn’t just players who get in trouble.

Unpaid student-athletes are especially vulnerable to improprieties – and harassment

There have been several major point-shaving scandals in college basketball history, most famously at the City College of New York in the 1950s and at Boston College in the late 1970s – the latter of which involved Henry Hill, the subject of the blockbuster film “Goodfellas.”

The increasing use of prop, or proposition, bets, which focus on a specific outcome within a game rather than the overall result, has created a new point of vulnerability for student-athletes. While influencing an entire team is hard, history shows that individual players are more susceptible to pressure. A point guard or quarterback can slow down the game and reduce the margin of victory.

And while today’s unpaid student-athletes have the same financial incentives to cheat as earlier generations did, they face a new pressure: They’re often surrounded by gamblers on campus and on social media. Betting is pervasive not only at large universities but at smaller schools, too. According to NCAA surveys, 1 in 3 student-athletes have faced harassment from gamblers, ranging from derogatory comments to death threats.

New regulations and oversight measures could help

The sportsbooks have very little incentive to address potential violations, so it’s up to organizations that oversee sports to ensure the integrity of their games.

NCAA President Charlie Baker’s suggestion to ban prop bets is a good first step: The more individual players and gameplay are isolated, the easier it is for improprieties to occur.

Providing more guidance for players – and different types of punishments for different transgressions – could also be useful. Gambling violations that don’t affect competition outcomes should be treated differently from ones that do. The NCAA already does this by meting out lighter penalties for student-athletes who wager on other teams and sports as opposed to their own.

Providing treatment for players and others suffering from gambling addiction would be helpful as well, and there’s some evidence that open discussions of gambling addiction in European soccer have had a positive impact.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has suggested implementing federal oversight to eliminate the uncertainty of state-by-state regulations. Although scandals are still likely to occur, gambling commissions like the one in the U.K. can provide a framework for federal licensing and oversight.

The suddenness of states adopting sports betting has led to a windfall of profit for gambling companies and tax revenue for the states. But it may also endanger the integrity of sports. As policymakers mull how to address the issue, they might be wise to learn from history.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jared Bahir Browsh, Assistant Teaching Professor of Critical Sports Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

FXTM’s Soybean: On breakout watch

By ForexTime 

  • Soybean ↑ 5% month-to-date
  • Influenced by various fundamentals
  • Trapped in range on W1 timeframe
  • Breakout on the horizon?
  • Key levels at 1211, 1188, 1170

After bouncing within a weekly range since mid-January, FXTM’s new Soybean commodity could be on the brink of a major breakout!

Prices are flirting around the 1200 weekly resistance level as bulls and bears wait for a fresh directional catalyst.

Note: Soybean is priced per bushel. One bushel is equivalent to 60 pounds.

Before we break down the fundamentals, here are some fun facts about soybean:

  • Ancient crop that originates from China
  • More than 2500 varieties
  • Brazil is the biggest producer & exporter
  • China is the biggest importer
  • Gained over 5% month-to-date

What is Soybean?

Soybeans are simply the edible beans of the soya plant.

They come in many different shapes and sizes boasting various uses.

Humans and animals can consume this bean, also used for industrial and consumer products!

Note: Soya oil is extracted from Soybean. Soybean meal is the by-product of the extraction process.

Both can be traded along with Soybean on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade).

What does FXTM’s Soybean track?

FXTM’s Soybean tracks the CME Group’s Soybean futures, providing access to one of the world’s most widely grown crops.

The lowdown…

Soybean prices have been shaky in 2024, shedding almost 7% year-to-date.

A combination of rising global stockpiles and uncertainty over China’s demand has pressured the commodity.

Back in March, reports showed that China imported 13.04 million metric tons of soybeans for the first two months of 2024 – the lowest in 5 years.

Considering how China accounts for roughly 60% of global imports, it plays a key role in Soybeans outlook.

The bigger picture…

Brazil, the United States, and Argentina account for roughly 80% of total Soybean production.

Developments in these regions along with demand from China are likely to heavily influence the outlook for 2024.

There have been reports of severe weather conditions in Brazil threatening supplies of key agricultural commodities including soybeans. These concerns were reflected in the latest USDA report published last Friday which lowered estimates for Brazil’s production.

However, U.S. farmers are expected to produce near-record amounts of Soybean this year – adding to the rising global inventories.

What does this mean?

The various fundamental forces pulling and tugging at Soybeans could translate to fresh volatility.

Where there is volatility, this presents fresh opportunity.

Technical outlook…

Soybean prices remain in a wide range on the weekly charts with key support found around 1130 and resistance at 1200.

Zooming into the H1 timeframe, another range is in play with support at 1188 and resistance at 1211. Prices are trading below the 100 and 50 SMA and currently testing the 200 SMA.

  • A solid H1 close below 1188 could inspire a decline towards 1170.

  • Should prices push back above the 50 SMA, this could open a path back to 1211.

  • A break above 1211 may see prices test 1220 and 1235.


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Australia will release its annual budget today. Rising inflation expectations hurt US stock indices

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.21%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.29%. Rising inflation expectations weighed on stocks after the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation rose by 26 bps to a 5-month high of 3.26% from 3.00% in March. Stocks were also impacted by hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson when he said it was appropriate for the Fed to keep interest rates in a restrictive range.

Apple (AAPL) closed higher by more than 2% after it was reported that the company is close to an agreement to use OpenAI technology in Apple’s upcoming iOS 18 mobile operating system.

Intel (INTC) shares rose more than 2% and led the Dow Jones Industrials Index after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company is negotiating a deal that would see Apollo Global Management provide more than $11 billion to build a chip factory in Ireland.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index rose by 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

The CAC 40 Index (FR40) closed at 8,209 on Monday, breaking its 6-day winning streak and retreating from a record high of 8,219. On the corporate front, Airbus saw the biggest drop in shares, with its stock down 1.4%.

WTI crude oil prices held above $79 a barrel on Tuesday after rising more than 1% in the previous session, helped by concerns over possible supply disruptions in Canada. Markets feared that Canada’s wildfire season could affect the country’s 3.3 million barrels per day production capacity. In the Middle East, Iraq’s oil minister said over the weekend that the country would abide by OPEC+ policy on production cuts due at the upcoming June 1 meeting, reversing his previous statement that Iraq would not agree to any new production cuts.

Asian markets experienced both ups and downs yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.80%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.01%.

Australia will release its budget today. The government is expected to announce another annual budget surplus thanks to strong employment figures. At the same time, traders will focus on the details of the planned cost of living cuts that are said to reduce consumer inflation temporarily. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expects the current core inflation rate of 3.6% to return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target of 2–3% by the end of the year. If this scenario works out, the Central Bank will likely cut interest rates sooner than markets expect.

Ahead of the PBOC’s upcoming medium-term interest rate decision, the offshore yuan exchange rate is holding at 7.24 per dollar, the lowest in two weeks. Expectations are leaning towards the PBOC keeping the medium-term interest rate unchanged at 2.5% at tomorrow’s meeting — the rate has been unchanged since August 2023, when 15 basis points cut it.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,221.42 −1.26 (−0.024%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,431.51 −81.33 (−0.21%)

DAX (DE40) 18,742.22 −30.63 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,414.99 −18.77 (−0.22%)

USD Index 105.22 −0.09 (-0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.