InvestMacro

Gold hits new record high

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, a troy ounce of gold set a new price peak of 3438.00 USD. This surge was fuelled by renewed speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, vigorous gold purchases by banks globally, and strong investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Recent statistics indicating a slowdown in consumer inflation in the US and a decline in retail sales have given the Fed more flexibility for potential ease of monetary policy this year. Although the Fed’s official stance has not changed, investors are already speculating on a rate cut. A lower interest rate would enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contribute to the rise in gold prices. Furthermore, global central banks, including China, continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves and reduce dependency on the US dollar.

XAU/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, a consolidation range has formed above the level of 2374.00, with the growth wave continuing towards 2550.00. The local target of 2450.00 has been achieved. Today, a corrective move to at least 2410.00 is expected. If this level breaks, the correction could extend to 2374.00. Following this correction, growth towards 2550.00 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing upwards towards new highs.

On the H1 chart, a growth wave to 2450.00 was completed. Today, a correction to 2410.00 (testing from above) is anticipated. After this correction, another growth wave to 2450.00 is expected, potentially extending to 2550.00. This scenario is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 and expected to decline to 20 before resuming its upward trend.

Summary

Gold hits a new record high, driven by speculation about potential US interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, strong demand from central banks, and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Technical analysis indicates short-term correction before continuing the upward trend towards higher targets. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as the market remains highly responsive to economic and geopolitical signals.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

19 May

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (12,565 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (8,740 contracts), the British Pound (1,738 contracts), the Swiss Franc (680 contracts), the Mexican Peso (649 contracts), Bitcoin (606 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (582 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,655 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-11,082 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-616 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

This week’s COT currency’s data saw a continued improvement in many currencies (EUR, USDIndex, GBP, JPY) that had seen their positions weakening significantly over the past few months. Overall, most of the currency positions remain in weak levels versus the US dollar as only the Mexican peso, the Euro and the USD Index currently have positive bullish speculator positions.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Euro positions continue to rebound after a deeply negative stretch in March and April that took -84,396 contracts off the speculator position and dropped the Euro contracts into a bearish position for the first time since September of 2022. This week the Euro bets rose by +12,565 contracts following last week’s +11,367 contract gain and has brought the speculator standing to a current level of +17,155 contracts. The Euro exchange rate has been on a 5-week winning streak as well and closed this week at the 1.0889 level against the US dollar.

The US dollar index positions rose modestly again this week and have now been higher for six consecutive weeks. This recent bullishness has taken the speculator standing back into bullish territory after the position dipped into negative or bearish levels in March for the first time since 2021.

Japanese yen speculator bets continued to improve for a third straight week after falling to a multi-year low of -179,919 contracts on April 23rd. The three-week improvement has totaled +53,737 contracts and coincided with a reported intervention in the currency markets by the Japanese government to stop a sharp slide in the yen. Despite the intervention, the yen’s exchange rate versus the dollar continues to be historically weak with the USDJPY currency pair closing the week right around the 155.60 level.

The Canadian dollar speculative position dropped for a second straight week this week and the current -80,303 contract level is the most bearish standing in a month for the CAD bets. The renewed bearishness for speculators has brought the CAD into extreme bearishness versus its range over the past three years with a 1.9 percent strength score. The Canadian dollar exchange rate remains in a down-trending channel versus the US dollar with our weekly trend model also considering the CAD to be in a downtrend at the moment. However, the CADUSD currency pair has recently bounced off a base of support around the 0.7250 level for the fourth time since 2022.

The Mexican Peso saw a small weekly gain by just 649 contracts but this broke a four-week losing streak that saw a total of -27,379 contracts subtracted from the overall bullish position. Despite the recent weakness in positions, the MXN speculative position has remained the most bullish currency versus the US dollar and has maintained a speculator position above the +100,000 contract level for eleven consecutive weeks. This is the best +100,000 contract streak since late-2019 into early-2020. The MXN exchange rate versus the USD has been trending strongly higher over the past three weeks with a gain of approximately 4 percent in these three weeks and has now brought the exchange rate into positive territory year-to-date.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (2 percent), the Swiss Franc (3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (10.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.8 percent)
EuroFX (27.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (40.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (86.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.7 percent)
Bitcoin (63.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.6 percent)

Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-39 percent), Swiss Franc (-33 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-42.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-14.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-39.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-52.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.3	19.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	28.6	5.1
– Net Position:	2,435	-3,790	1,355
– Gross Longs:	29,682	8,472	3,535
– Gross Shorts:	27,247	12,262	2,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	92.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-7.3	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	59.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	64.9	8.4
– Net Position:	17,155	-38,282	21,127
– Gross Longs:	178,398	387,812	76,472
– Gross Shorts:	161,243	426,094	55,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	74.9	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.8	7.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	61.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	49.8	14.6
– Net Position:	-20,075	26,795	-6,720
– Gross Longs:	48,674	137,917	25,869
– Gross Shorts:	68,749	111,122	32,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	60.7	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.1	37.1	-5.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	72.7	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	27.9	15.6
– Net Position:	-126,182	133,294	-7,112
– Gross Longs:	35,303	216,442	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	161,485	83,148	46,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	71.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-3.8	-34.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -41,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a small weekly advance of 680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	79.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	22.0	24.0
– Net Position:	-41,107	51,769	-10,662
– Gross Longs:	6,646	71,745	11,121
– Gross Shorts:	47,753	19,976	21,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.6	90.2	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.4	19.6	25.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	66.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	31.4	13.8
– Net Position:	-80,303	78,220	2,083
– Gross Longs:	34,286	147,626	32,492
– Gross Shorts:	114,589	69,406	30,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	92.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	14.8	7.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -77,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -12,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	65.2	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.1	27.0	12.8
– Net Position:	-77,171	77,142	29
– Gross Longs:	40,059	131,596	25,881
– Gross Shorts:	117,230	54,454	25,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	69.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-28.3	31.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of just -9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	58.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	36.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-11,200	12,162	-962
– Gross Longs:	19,284	32,451	3,683
– Gross Shorts:	30,484	20,289	4,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	70.3	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	3.6	28.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.9	41.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	86.2	1.3
– Net Position:	112,961	-116,601	3,640
– Gross Longs:	144,307	105,840	6,997
– Gross Shorts:	31,346	222,441	3,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.3	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	10.9	-13.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	78.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	15.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-38,259	38,249	10
– Gross Longs:	11,257	47,983	2,105
– Gross Shorts:	49,516	9,734	2,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.4	40.6	-17.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	4.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.5	5.6	3.4
– Net Position:	-177	-421	598
– Gross Longs:	21,078	1,099	1,519
– Gross Shorts:	21,255	1,520	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	54.0	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	14.9	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 May

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Copper, Brazilian Real & Sugar lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 59,461 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,809 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Copper speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 42.2 this week. The speculator position registered 61,780 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -868 contracts in speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Fed Funds speculator level resides at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 36.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 95,924 net contracts this week with a drop of -41,041 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -4,030 net contracts this week with a small dip of -40 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 86.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week.

The speculator position was 112,961 net contracts this week with a slight edge higher by 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,259 net contracts this week with a decline of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.1 this week. The speculator position was 25,891 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,670 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -276,454 net contracts this week with a drop of -62,155 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The speculator position was -80,303 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,082 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

Finally, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.4 this week. The speculator position was -41,107 net contracts this week with a small boost of 680 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

18 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (10,787 contracts) with Silver (5,809 contracts), Gold (4,929 contracts) and Palladium (188 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-868 contracts) with Steel (-865 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Copper (99 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.3 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.0 percent)
Copper (99.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (83.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.5 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (80.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.4 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (42 percent) and Platinum (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) and Palladium (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.1 percent)
Silver (8.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.9 percent)
Copper (42.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.2 percent)
Platinum (42.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.3 percent)
Palladium (-4.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)
Steel (-13.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	25.5	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.9	4.8
– Net Position:	204,496	-232,110	27,614
– Gross Longs:	277,642	133,583	52,633
– Gross Shorts:	73,146	365,693	25,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	30.6	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.6	29.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	24.2	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.7	6.3
– Net Position:	59,461	-81,422	21,961
– Gross Longs:	87,936	41,532	32,735
– Gross Shorts:	28,475	122,954	10,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	88.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-15.9	41.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	22.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	44.5	5.5
– Net Position:	61,780	-69,656	7,876
– Gross Longs:	163,662	71,026	25,246
– Gross Shorts:	101,882	140,682	17,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.2	-39.0	-4.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.2	19.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	52.1	6.2
– Net Position:	24,447	-28,194	3,747
– Gross Longs:	53,314	17,181	9,115
– Gross Shorts:	28,867	45,375	5,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.4	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.3	-37.9	-22.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	47.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.1	10.1	6.0
– Net Position:	-10,900	10,276	624
– Gross Longs:	6,110	13,034	2,271
– Gross Shorts:	17,010	2,758	1,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	83.1	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.6	36.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	80.4	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,248	4,091	157
– Gross Longs:	3,573	21,523	437
– Gross Shorts:	7,821	17,432	280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	20.2	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	13.8	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by the 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (133,809 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (57,247 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (28,956 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-162,256 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-65,115 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,155 contracts), the Fed Funds (-41,041 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,038 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (89 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (85 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (89.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (97.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (74.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (39.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.7 percent)

Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (36 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-39 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (67.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-0.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-27.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-39.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -404,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -65,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	59.4	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	55.5	0.5
– Net Position:	-404,677	408,357	-3,680
– Gross Longs:	1,389,581	6,209,318	49,269
– Gross Shorts:	1,794,258	5,800,961	52,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.7	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.1	38.9	3.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	56.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	62.1	2.6
– Net Position:	95,924	-85,206	-10,718
– Gross Longs:	329,136	894,232	29,503
– Gross Shorts:	233,212	979,438	40,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	11.6	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.1	-33.8	-19.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -964,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 57,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	58.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-964,986	832,486	132,500
– Gross Longs:	541,411	3,178,396	264,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,397	2,345,910	131,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	63.6	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.8	7.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,326,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -162,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,163,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	84.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	64.8	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,326,105	1,242,371	83,734
– Gross Longs:	469,333	5,284,344	412,489
– Gross Shorts:	1,795,438	4,041,973	328,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	92.9	80.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	4.5	-3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -347,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 133,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -481,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	68.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-347,811	351,641	-3,830
– Gross Longs:	522,351	3,378,701	409,062
– Gross Shorts:	870,162	3,027,060	412,892
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	40.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-23.8	-7.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -276,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	76.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-276,454	348,749	-72,295
– Gross Longs:	253,058	1,655,031	212,855
– Gross Shorts:	529,512	1,306,282	285,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	99.8	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	33.7	-2.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	71.3	10.0
– Net Position:	4,287	-46,304	42,017
– Gross Longs:	271,919	1,116,694	204,299
– Gross Shorts:	267,632	1,162,998	162,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	0.0	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-23.9	1.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -331,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	80.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	61.1	9.7
– Net Position:	-331,153	319,430	11,723
– Gross Longs:	147,454	1,332,490	171,656
– Gross Shorts:	478,607	1,013,060	159,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	53.0	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	2.4	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (7,109 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (5,933 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (651 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-15,589 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,427 contracts), the VIX (-9,182 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-1,235 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (63 percent) and Russell-Mini (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (63.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (86.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (74.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (44.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (62.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (58.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (51.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (38.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (13 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-7 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (7.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (23.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-7.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-6.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	41.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	30.5	6.9
– Net Position:	-48,061	47,902	159
– Gross Longs:	96,769	180,775	30,036
– Gross Shorts:	144,830	132,873	29,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.1	32.1	97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-6.2	17.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	71.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	74.5	8.6
– Net Position:	-25,284	-73,047	98,331
– Gross Longs:	273,398	1,477,881	278,004
– Gross Shorts:	298,682	1,550,928	179,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	29.8	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-7.2	-0.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	57.5	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	76.8	11.5
– Net Position:	15,773	-19,177	3,404
– Gross Longs:	24,739	57,006	14,802
– Gross Shorts:	8,966	76,183	11,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.0	10.4	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	0.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 3,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	53.7	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	58.2	13.3
– Net Position:	3,170	-11,068	7,898
– Gross Longs:	68,869	133,543	41,056
– Gross Shorts:	65,699	144,611	33,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	40.4	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-10.4	2.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	73.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	68.7	4.4
– Net Position:	-32,067	23,332	8,735
– Gross Longs:	82,124	343,687	29,283
– Gross Shorts:	114,191	320,355	20,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	35.5	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	7.4	-5.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	65.5	23.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	57.0	14.3
– Net Position:	-2,756	1,346	1,410
– Gross Longs:	1,798	10,397	3,674
– Gross Shorts:	4,554	9,051	2,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	39.1	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	7.1	-13.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	90.8	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	85.8	1.4
– Net Position:	-27,423	21,201	6,222
– Gross Longs:	24,475	378,438	12,043
– Gross Shorts:	51,898	357,237	5,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	58.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	19.3	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (31,578 contracts) with Wheat (12,370 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,815 contracts), Cocoa (1,396 contracts), Live Cattle (1,184 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,021 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-6,315 contracts), Soybeans (-5,927 contracts), Coffee (-5,666 contracts), Sugar (-2,670 contracts) and with Cotton (-1,737 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (82 percent) and Wheat (64 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Oil (4 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.0 percent)
Coffee (81.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (32.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.7 percent)
Live Cattle (27.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.2 percent)
Cotton (13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.8 percent)
Cocoa (38.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.1 percent)
Wheat (63.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (55.2 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (50 percent) and Wheat (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (23 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-62 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-33 percent), Soybean Oil (-29 percent) and Live Cattle (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.7 percent)
Sugar (-33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-26.0 percent)
Coffee (-10.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.7 percent)
Soybeans (21.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (49.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-16.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.0 percent)
Cotton (-62.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-60.6 percent)
Cocoa (-5.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.0 percent)
Wheat (38.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 31,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	41.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	39.1	11.8
– Net Position:	224	40,405	-40,629
– Gross Longs:	337,217	632,478	138,445
– Gross Shorts:	336,993	592,073	179,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	67.9	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-20.2	-38.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	53.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	54.4	9.0
– Net Position:	25,891	-11,459	-14,432
– Gross Longs:	209,791	439,623	60,523
– Gross Shorts:	183,900	451,082	74,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	35.1	-39.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	36.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	63.0	3.0
– Net Position:	57,211	-59,694	2,483
– Gross Longs:	77,228	81,022	9,092
– Gross Shorts:	20,017	140,716	6,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.4	8.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	59.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	48.5	9.3
– Net Position:	-65,975	81,604	-15,629
– Gross Longs:	112,139	446,696	54,657
– Gross Shorts:	178,114	365,092	70,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	70.8	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-20.4	-11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -50,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	53.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	44.5	5.2
– Net Position:	-50,532	47,181	3,351
– Gross Longs:	109,303	288,450	31,814
– Gross Shorts:	159,835	241,269	28,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	95.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	26.5	-6.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 82,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	38.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	62.1	5.3
– Net Position:	82,785	-109,370	26,585
– Gross Longs:	150,611	176,885	50,993
– Gross Shorts:	67,826	286,255	24,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	34.4	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.7	-52.8	54.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	35.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	48.9	12.6
– Net Position:	44,659	-37,742	-6,917
– Gross Longs:	100,002	94,857	27,263
– Gross Shorts:	55,343	132,599	34,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	76.6	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.9	-0.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	36.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	46.0	9.8
– Net Position:	32,041	-26,444	-5,597
– Gross Longs:	93,393	101,191	21,492
– Gross Shorts:	61,352	127,635	27,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	44.8	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	9.0	5.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	44.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	45.9	6.7
– Net Position:	6,399	-4,249	-2,150
– Gross Longs:	68,159	97,259	12,682
– Gross Shorts:	61,760	101,508	14,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	87.5	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.0	62.9	-63.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	35.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.6	3.6
– Net Position:	27,958	-33,568	5,610
– Gross Longs:	45,316	52,231	10,914
– Gross Shorts:	17,358	85,799	5,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	58.4	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.4	-5.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	35.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	32.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,415	14,159	-8,744
– Gross Longs:	132,484	141,475	28,160
– Gross Shorts:	137,899	127,316	36,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	37.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-33.8	-40.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 May

Stoxx Europe 600: What Signs of Investor Exuberance Keep Telling Us

By Elliott Wave International

Every day, you read news stories about the state of the economy and the stock market affecting consumer and investor behavior. The story goes something like this: When the economy and financial markets show signs of improvement, consumers start to spend more, and investors buy stocks.

But if you’re a student of Elliott waves, you understand that this type of thinking is precisely backwards. It’s consumer optimism and the resulting consumer spending that elevates the economic markets; and it’s the investors’ bullish mood that translates into a rising stock market as investors buy stocks.

Social mood, in other words, comes first. Consumer and investor behavior — bullish or bearish — follows.

That’s why social trends can give you clues as to where the financial markets are likely heading next. For example, exuberant investor optimism often appears near major stock market tops, while deep pessimism accompanies major lows.

Let’s look at a key European market as an example. Back in March, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index extended its rally to seven consecutive weeks. Most investors probably saw the strength as a reason to load up on European stocks. Readers of our European Financial Forecast, on the other hand, saw warning signs of exuberance flashing throughout society.

First, Lamborghini’s 2023 sales results showed an all-time record 10,112 cars sold last year. Lamborghini’s electric V12 Revuelto is sold out until late 2026 — a three-year wait! Luxury goods tend to be popular at extremes in positive social mood, as the stock market and economic prosperity approach major peaks. They tend to go out of favor when these trends reverse.

Second, a March 10 Bloomberg headline said, “One of the Most Infamous Trades on Wall Street Is Roaring Back.” The trade in question was the so-called short volatility trade, where traders sell products that track stock volatility. “Investors are sinking vast sums into strategies whose performance hinges on enduring equity calm.” According to data from Global X ETFs, short volatility bets nearly quadrupled in two years.

“Enduring equity calm” attitude among investors rang a bell. We had been here before. An earlier iteration of the same trade famously blew up on February 5, 2018, when the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) suddenly spiked 20 points and destroyed vast numbers of professional and retail portfolios. The spike coincided with a global stock market sell-off and a two-and-a-half-year period of volatility that left the S&P 500 where it started. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 had peaked three years before the S&P, so the stretch of zero returns lasted nearly six years. This chart of Europe’s VIX equivalent, the VStoxx Implied Volatility Index, illustrates a few of the infamous volatility spikes over the past quarter century.

In our view, the re-emergence of the short-volatility casino is a much larger version of 2018. Five years ago, traders were gambling with a little more than $2 billion within a small handful of funds. Today, a mind-blowing $64 billion is being bet using “ETFs that sell options on stocks or indexes in order to juice returns” (Bloomberg, 3/10/24). Whether they know it or not, these traders are relying on smoothly functioning markets that behave the same way today and tomorrow as they did yesterday or the day before.

The warning signs we see in investor and consumer behavior are worth heeding.

To predict the next move in European markets, I’ll continue to monitor social trends for clues. But more importantly, I’ll compare the Elliott wave price structures in stock market indexes to previous major junctures in those indexes. Tune in to The European Financial Forecast for my ongoing analysis, or sign up for our free newsletter, and I’ll send you occasional updates like this.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stoxx Europe 600: What Signs of Investor Exuberance Keep Telling Us. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

17 May

Week Ahead: GBPNZD braces for double risk cocktail

By ForexTime

RBNZ decision & UK CPI in focus

NZD best performing G10 currency MTD

GBPNZD trapped in 1500 pip range

Prices bearish on D1 charts

Bloomberg FX model: 76% GBPNZD – (2.0510 – 2.0924)

High impact events ranging from central bank decisions, key inflation data and speeches by policymakers may present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:

Sunday, 19th May

USDInd: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Monday, 20th May

CN50: China loan prime rates
HK50: Hong Kong jobless rates
JPY: Japan tertiary industry index
TWN: Taiwan export orders
SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
US500: Fed speeches

Tuesday, 21st May

AU200: Australia consumer confidence, RBA minutes
CAD: Canada CPI
NGN: Nigeria rate decision
US30: Fed speeches

Wednesday, 22nd May

JP225: Japan core machinery orders, trade
NZD: RBNZ rate decision
ZAR: South Africa CPI
TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
GBP: UK April CPI
USDInd: FOMC minutes
NAS100: Nvidia earnings

Thursday, 23rd May

EU50: Eurozone PMI’s, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany manufacturing PMI
HK50: Hong Kong CPI
SG20: Singapore CPI, GDP
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
UK100: UK Manufacturing PMI

Friday, 24th May

CAD: Canada retail sales
GER40: Germany GDP
JP225: Japan CPI
NGN: Nigeria GDP
CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech
SG20: Singapore industrial production
USDInd: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Our attention falls on the GBPNZD which has been trapped within a 1500-pip monthly range since August 2023.

Note: GBPNZD is a minor currency pair – one that does not include the USD but has at least one of the world’s majors.

However, prices have trended lower over the past few weeks. This could be based on shifting expectations over the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next policy move.

Interestingly, Sterling is down against most G10 currencies month-to-date.

But the New Zealand dollar is flexing its muscles across the board.

Keep all the above in mind, here are 3 factors that could rock the GBPNZD.

1) New Zealand rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.5% next week.

So, investors will direct their attention toward the policy statement and media conference for clues on future policy moves. It is noteworthy that first-quarter inflation printed hotter than expected, injecting RBNZ hawks with fresh inspiration. Any more hawkish hints during the meeting may further push back bets around when the central bank will start cutting rates.

Traders currently see a 50% probability of a 25-basis point RBNZ cut by August with this jumping to roughly 95% by October.

The GBPNZD could sink lower if the RBNZ strikes a hawkish note and suggests that rates will remain higher for longer.

If the central bank signals lower rates down the road, this could push the GBPNZD higher.

2) UK April CPI report

The incoming UK April inflation report will likely impact bets around when the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2024) to cool 2.1% from 3.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool to 3.6% to 4.2%.
CPI month-on-month (April 2024 vs March 2024) to cool 0.2% from 0.6%.

Headline inflation is expected to cool significantly with core inflation figures tagging along. A drop in household energy prices over the past year is expected to be the main driver behind this. Should the CPI report match or even print lower than these expectations, it may encourage the BoE to cut rates sooner than expected.

Traders see a 62% probability of a 25-basis point BoE cut by June with a move in August fully priced in.

A soft UK inflation report could send the GBPNZD lower as sterling weakens.

Should the CPI report print above market forecasts, the GBPNZD may push higher.

3) Technical forces

Prices are under pressure on the weekly charts, currently testing the 50-week SMA and bullish channel. A solid breakdown below the 2.0700 could signal further downside.

Zooming into the daily, there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

Sustained weakness below 2.0775 may open a path back towards 2.0500.

Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA, this could open a path back to 2.0900.

Bloomberg FX model now forecasts a 76% chance that GBPNZD will trade within the 2.0510 – 2.0924 range through next week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 May

Natural gas prices rose to a 4-month high. China released mixed data

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.10%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.21%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.26%. Stock indices initially set new record highs on speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates this year. But by the end of the trading day, stock indices gave up early gains. They closed lower as comments from Fed President Cleveland Mester and Richmond Fed President Barkin pushed bond yields higher when they said interest rates should remain at higher levels for a long time. In addition, signs of continued price pressures pressured stocks after the Import Price Index, excluding oil for April, rose the most in 16 months.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than 2%, topping the Dow Jones Industrials’ list of losers, after the company projected fourth-quarter revenue of $13.40–13.60 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $13.54 billion. Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than 1% after the European Union announced an audit of the company over concerns that its algorithms illegally exploit the weakness of children to addict them to Facebook and Instagram. Walmart (WMT) closed higher by nearly 7% after reporting a 3.90% increase in US comparable sales for the first quarter, beating the consensus prognosis of 3.42%. Shares of 3M Co (MMM) closed higher by more than 3% after Vertical Research upgraded the stock to a “buy” from a “hold” rating with a $140 price target.

Overall, positive first-quarter earnings results are supporting the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to grow 7.1% YoY, well above the pre-reporting season guidance of 3.8%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) lost 0.82%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.63%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.56%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.09%.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 per barrel on Friday, helped by a recent decline in US crude inventories and growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. EIA data showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels last week, declining in the second week and beating estimates for a 1.362 million barrel decline. The April data also pointed to a slowdown in the US consumer inflation, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut that could support economic growth and energy demand.

The US natural gas futures rose more than 3% to $2.5/MMBtu, the highest in four months after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected increase in storage inventories. The US utilities added 70 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, below market expectations of a 76 billion cubic feet increase. However, the report also showed that the US gas inventories are 30.8% above the 5-year average. Weather prognoses point to a shift to warmer-than-normal temperatures through May 31, which will increase gas consumption by power generators to meet electricity demand for air conditioning.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.77% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.59% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.65%.

The offshore yuan slid to around 7.23 per dollar as traders reacted to mixed economic data from China. The latest data showed that industrial production rose more than expected in April, while retail sales rose less. While government incentives aimed at boosting production have shown to be effective, initiatives aimed at consumer spending, such as trade-in programs and tax cuts, have lagged behind. Further worrying is that data shows a further decline in real estate investment between January and April, raising concerns about the effectiveness of China’s real estate bailout plan. Meanwhile, China’s finance ministry auctioned its first batch of special treasury bonds on Friday, marking the start of a long-awaited economic stimulus program.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, compared to initial and market estimates of 3.9%, and accelerated from the downwardly revised growth of 2.9% in the previous three-month period. This was the fastest economic growth in exactly one year, mainly due to positive contributions from almost all sectors.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,297.10 −11.05 (−0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,869.38 −38.62 (−0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 18,738.81 −130.55 (−0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,438.65 −7.15 (−0.09%)

USD Index 104.51 +0.16 (+0.16%)

Important events today:

– New Zealand Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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