InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.22%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.1% yesterday. A rise in T bond yields on Thursday pressured stocks. Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields up and pressured stock indices when New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed would not rush to cut interest rates. In addition, weakness in chip company stocks weighed on the overall market for the second session. Stocks found some support from Thursday’s US economic reports, which were mostly better than expected and bolstered the outlook for a soft landing.

The US weekly jobless claims were unchanged at 212,000, indicating a robust labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index for April unexpectedly rose by 12.3 to a 2-year high of 15.5 vs. expectations of a decline to 2.0. The US home sales for March fell by 4.3% m/m to 4.19 million, slightly weaker than expectations of 4.20 million.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% and topped the NASDAQ (US100) losers list after Deutsche Banks downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy.” Meta Platforms (META) is up more than 1% and led the NASDAQ (US100) risers after Moody’s Ratings Services upgraded the company’s senior unsecured debt rating to Aa3 from A1.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a negative factor for risk assets. On Friday morning, Israel retaliated against Iran following Tehran’s attack over the weekend. Notably, the attack was carried out on the birthday of Iranian leader Khamenei, who turns 85 today.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $60,000 mark on Friday before stabilizing around $61,000, hitting its lowest level in six weeks. Financial markets were swept by a wave of risky trades following reports that Israel had struck targets in Iran, Iraq, and Syria in response to Tehran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Meanwhile, some analysts have argued that Bitcoin and other crypto-assets could provide an alternative store of value in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.37%.

Eurozone construction output rose by 1.8% m/m in February, the largest increase in a year. In their monthly report, the Bundesbank upgraded their assessment of the German economy and said that a “slight increase” in growth is possible in Q1, an improvement from March when they forecast the economy to contract in Q1. ECB executive board spokesman de Guindos said yesterday that if there is increased confidence among ECB officials that the 2% inflation target will be met, reducing the current level of monetary policy restriction would be appropriate. His counterpart, ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann, said a majority vote in June would likely favor an ECB rate cut.

WTI crude futures jumped about 2% above $84 a barrel on Friday, recovering most of the losses suffered earlier in the week following reports of large explosions in Iran, Iraq, and Syria suspected to have been attacked by Israel. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil and potential new EU restrictions on Iran will continue to drive oil markets higher.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.03%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.40%.

Malaysia’s economy grew 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 3.0% growth in the previous period. This is the economy’s fastest growth in a year, driven by positive contributions from all sectors, led by the services sector (4.4% vs. 4.2% in Q4).

In a trilateral statement, the US, Japan, and South Korea said they will continue close consultations on currency market developments, recognizing the serious concerns of Japan and Korea about the recent sharp depreciation of their currencies. In its semi-annual report on the financial system, the Bank of Japan noted that financial conditions at companies are improving, and companies are generally quite resilient to stress. Many Japanese companies have sufficient profitability to withstand rising interest rates. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike by the BoJ at 1% for the April 26 meeting and 39% for the next meeting on June 14.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,011.12 −11.09 (−0.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,775.38 +22.07 (+0.058%)

DAX (DE40) 17,837.40 +67.38 (+0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,877.05 +29.06 (+0.37%)

USD Index 105.86 -0.09 (-0.09%)

• – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 1.15%. A drop in chip company stocks negatively impacted the overall market on Wednesday after ASML Holding NV reported first-quarter net sales below consensus. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to weigh on equities amid concerns that Israel will retaliate after Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.62%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.02%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.35% on Wednesday. European equity markets opened higher on Thursday amid improving risk sentiment, while investors ignored another tech-driven sell-off on Wall Street.

Several ECB officials made statements yesterday. Cipollone of the ECB executive board said that if incoming data confirms that inflation is returning to the 2% target, removing some of the restrictive measures introduced in 2023 would be appropriate. This view was also supported by the representative of the ECB’s Governing Council, Centeno. He added that it was time for the ECB to change monetary policy due to weak economic growth and progress on disinflation. But there was a counter-argument from ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann, who said he was not fully convinced that the ECB should start cutting interest rates in June, citing the results of the Eurozone wage debate and rising tensions in the Middle East, which poses risks to inflation.

WTI crude prices held below $83 a barrel on Thursday, having lost more than 3% in the previous session, amid signs that US oil supply remains strong and demand is rising. EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose by 2.735 million barrels last week, increasing for the fourth week and beating market expectations for a 1.6 million barrel increase. Meanwhile, the US said it would reimpose oil sanctions against Venezuela in response to President Nicolas Maduro’s failure to fulfill his campaign pledges. European Union leaders also discussed new restrictions on Iran following its attack on Israel over the weekend. Any restrictions will keep oil prices from falling.

The US natural gas prices fell more than 3.5% to below $1.7 per MMBtu, the lowest in two months, due to a sharp decline in gas going to LNG export plants and a large surplus in storage. In addition, gas inventories are expected to be 36% above the seasonal average due to a combination of high initial inventory levels and a mild winter.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.32%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.02%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.09%.

On Wednesday, China’s central bank said it will maintain a cautious monetary policy and ensure the efficient utilization of financial resources. It added that the authorities will ensure that the yuan’s movement is mainly driven by supply and demand. Meanwhile, economists forecast that China’s central bank will cut the RRR by 25 bps in Q3 2024 after it cut the rate by 50 bps earlier this year, the biggest cut in 2 years.

Australia’s labor market report came out mixed. Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in March 2024 from February’s five-month low of 3.7% but below market forecasts of 3.9%. The number of unemployed increased by 20.6 thousand to 569.9 thousand, while those looking for work rose by 19.3 thousand to 371.3 thousand.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,022.21 −29.20 (−0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,735.11 −45.66 (−0.12%)

DAX (DE40) 17,770.02 +3.79 (+0.021%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,847.99 +27.63 (+0.35%)

USD Index 105.86 -0.09 (-0.09%)

• – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.21%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.12% yesterday. The Fed’s hawkish comments on Tuesday pushed 10-year T-note yields to a 5-month high and negatively impacted equities. The US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday that given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to give restrictive policy additional time to work. In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson added that if incoming data indicate that inflation is more resilient, it would be appropriate to maintain the current restrictive policy for a longer period. Currently, markets expect only 40 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, down significantly from 160 basis points at the beginning of the year. Markets are pricing in the chances of a rate cut of 25 bps. Up to 3% will be at the next FOMC meeting on May 1, and 20% will be at the June 12 meeting.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to weigh on equities amid concerns that Israel will retaliate after Iran fired a barrage of rockets and drones at Israel over the weekend. Israel’s military cabinet postponed a meeting scheduled for Tuesday to decide on retaliatory measures.

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2024 global GDP forecast to 3.2% from its January forecast of 3.1%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.44%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.82% on Tuesday.

German economic growth expectations in the ZEW survey rose by 11.2 to a two-year high 42.9, beating expectations of 35.5. ECB President Lagarde said yesterday that unless there are major shocks to developments, the ECB is approaching a point where the bank will have to moderate its restrictive monetary policy. Lagarde also added that this will likely happen in a fairly short period. ECB Governing Council representative Makhlouf provided more specificity, saying that the ECB could cut interest rates at its next meeting in June if the upward trend in inflation continues. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at its next meeting on June 6 at 87%.

WTI crude futures fell as low as $85 a barrel on Wednesday, declining for the third consecutive session. Economic uncertainty in China, a major oil importer, and a delayed US interest rate cut weighed on the demand outlook. However, given tensions in the Middle East and considering OPEC+ production cuts, the overall fundamental backdrop points to further gains in oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.94%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.12% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.81%.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.59 after data showed that the country’s inflation rate eased to 4% y/y in the first quarter, the lowest since June 2021. The reading matched economists’ expectations but exceeded the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forecast of 3.8% y/y. Earlier this month, the RBNZ kept the rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting as policymakers sought to further ease capacity and inflation pressures despite data pointing to weakening economic activity.

Japan posted a trade deficit for the third consecutive fiscal year as the cost of energy and other imported goods rose and the yen remained weak.

Westpac forecasts Australian GDP growth to remain modest at 1.6% in 2024, down from a soft 1.5% a year earlier. This is well below Australia’s “trend” growth rate of around 2.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,061.82 −61.59 (−1.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,735.11 −248.13 (−0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 18,026.58 +96.26 (+0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,965.53 −30.05 (−0.38%)

USD Index 106.35 +0.14 (+0.13%)

• – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.