InvestMacro

JPY declines again

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen is declining against the US dollar for the seventh consecutive session. The USD/JPY pair is approaching the 156.40 mark.

Japan’s government is poised for close cooperation with the Bank of Japan on currency market issues. This is needed to avoid disagreements on the goals of the policies they pursue, stated Shunichi Suzuki, the minister of finance, today. He noted that the Ministry of Finance is closely monitoring the currency and taking all possible measures. It is important to the authorities that the yen’s exchange rate remains stable and reflects fundamental indicators.

However, Suzuki did not communicate any specific exchange rate values. He also hardly said anything about financial interventions conducted in late April and early May to support the yen.

After falling earlier to 160.00 per US dollar, the yen has steadily risen. However, it expectedly came under pressure again now. Currency interventions have an intermittent impact and cannot create conditions for a fundamental change in the currency market environment.

The Japanese authorities are also concerned about the interest rate issue. Although no significant changes in the monetary policy structure are expected now, the market closely monitors this issue.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has completed a corrective wave on the H4 chart, reaching 156.16. Today, a consolidation range is forming around this level. The price is expected to break below it and continue the third decline wave, aiming for 151.40. After the price reaches this level, a correction towards 154.00 could start, followed by a decline to 149.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator, with its signal line above the zero level, poised to decline to new lows.

On the H1 chart, the USD/JPY pair has completed a growth wave at 156.16, with a narrow consolidation range formed around this level. Today, the price attempts to break above it, aiming for 156.66. The range extension towards 156.81 is not ruled out. It is worth noting that all growth structures are only perceived as the extension of this wave, with the market able to continue a downtrend at any moment. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 80, poised to move to new lows.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 May

Trade of the Week: CHINAH to extend lead as Asia’s winner?

By ForexTime

CHINAH overtakes JP225 in year-to-date gains
Earnings from Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba etc. may cause CHINAH to climb/fall
Traders also watching China rate decision and US CPI
CHINAH at risk of technical pullback, despite bullish “golden cross”
CHINAH forecasted to climb another 15.3% over next 12 months

There’s a new winner among FXTM’s Asian stock indices!

The CHINAH stock index has now overtaken the JP225 index, with the latter previously holding the most year-to-date gains among major stock indices worldwide throughout Q1 (January-March) 2024.

However, CHINAH has been on a tear, climbing as much as 19.75% since that mid-April trough.

NOTE: FXTM’s CHINAH stock index mirrors the performance of the underlying Hang Seng China Enterprises index.
It tracks 50 of the largest and most liquid stocks from Mainland China that are listed in Hong Kong.

Following the surge in recent weeks, CHINAH is now trading at its highest levels since August 2023.

For reference, here’s the current year-to-date standings among FXTM’s Asian stock indices:

CHINAH: +17.2%
JP225: +14.1%
TWN: +13.1%
HK50: +12.1%
CN50: +9.9%
SG20: +6.7%

Why are China’s stock markets climbing?

Chinese stocks have been boosted by hopes that the government is stepping in to support the economy.

Much has already been made about how China, the world’s second-largest economy, have faltered in its post-pandemic recovery, lagging behind other major economies.

China’s sluggish economic performance in turn weighed down its stock markets, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index posting 4 consecutive years of declines!

But now, with Beijing’s boosters on the way, such optimism is in turn fuelling a recovery in Chinese stock indices.

Just today (Monday, May 13th), China’s Ministry of Finance announced the sale of about 1 trillion yuan (about US$138 billion) in government bonds, beginning this Friday (May 17th) through November.

The 1 trillion yuan raised from this bond sales – only the 4th of its kind in 26 years – will be used to support China’s economic growth.

The news is sending CHINAH 0.6% higher today!

What could move CHINAH higher/lower this week?

1) Chinese stocks’ earnings: May 14th – 16th

8 of the CHINAH stock index’s 50 members are due to report their respective quarterly earnings this week.

This lineup includes 3 of the 4 biggest members of the Hang Seng China Enterprises index, namely Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba.

These 8 reporting companies combined account for 30% of the entire CHINAH stock index!

Hence, the market’s overall reaction to these upcoming earnings announcements, either positive or negative, could move the broader stock index up/down as well.

2) China policy rate: Wednesday, May 15th

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to maintain its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.5%.

Although the Chinese economy could do with even more support, from both the government (fiscal policy) as well as the central bank (monetary policy), the PBoC may want to hold off on lowering this rate so as not to further weaken the Chinese Yuan currency.

In the unlikely event of a surprise rate cut by the PBoC this week, that’s likely to jolt the CHINAH stock index even higher!

3) US April consumer price index (CPI): Wednesday, May 15th

The consumer price index (CPI) is a widely used gauge to measure a country’s inflation rate.

The US CPI is one of the most closely-watched economic data that could rock financial assets around the world, including FX markets, gold, and stock indexes!

After all, the world’s most-important central bank, the US Federal Reserve, currently finds itself in an ongoing battle in slowing down still-stubborn inflation in the world’s largest economy.

Here are the forecasts from economists for this week’s US CPI prints

CPI month-on-month (April 2024 vs. March 2024): 0.4%
If so, that would match March’s 0.4% month-on-month figure
CPI year-on-year (April 2024 vs. April 2023): 3.4%
If so, that would be slightly lower than March’s 3.5% year-on-year figure
Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.3%
If so, that would be slightly lower than March’s 0.4% month-on-month figure
Core CPI year-on-year: 3.6%
If so, that would be lower than March’s 3.8% year-on-year figure

Higher-than-expected CPI figures may drag down stock indexes around the world, including the CHINAH (and vice versa).

Key levels this week

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE:

6877: cycle high from mid-June 2023
7000: psychologically-important level

POTENTIAL SUPPORT:

6417.9: May 8th intraday low (recent technical pullback)
6200: psychological round number; April 30th closing price; 21-day simple moving average

Beware of potential technical pullback

Note that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is already above the 70 level which marks “overbought” territory.

Hence, from a technical perspective, a slight pullback may be in order.

However, once CHINAH can clear some of the froth from its recent ascent, this stock index may well resume its uptrend, provided that this week’s fundamental events do support the upside scenario.

“Golden cross” offers technical bullish signal?

Looking at first chart above, the CHINAH recently formed a “golden cross”.

A “golden cross” is a technical pattern when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above its 200-day counterpart.

A “golden cross” is often used as a technical sign that the asset’s prices can climb further: a “bullish” signal.

However, recent “golden crosses” had produced mixed results:

Late January 2023

The last time that the Hang Seng China Enterprises index formed a “golden cross”, it didn’t go as planned.

This stock index fell by 36.4% in the 12 months (January 2023 until January 2024) after the last “golden cross” was formed.

Late-November 2020

Still, the “golden cross” prior did adhere to the textbook scenario.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises index soared by 16.2% between November 2020 through February 2021.

How much higher can CHINAH go?

Analysts forecast that the Hang Seng China Enterprises index can climb by a further 15.3% and flirt with the 7800 level in 12 months from now (by May 2025).

If so, that would restore the CHINAH stock index back to its end-June 2022 peak!

However, the road back to such heights will be measured one step at a time.

This week’s events may well determine whether CHINA is firmly on the path upwards.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

13 May

The German index has hit an all-time high. China sees rising consumer inflation

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.32% (for the week +1.94%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.16% (for the week +1.56%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.03% (for the week +0.82%).

On Friday, several FOMC officials gave their comments on plans. Fed Chair Michelle Bowman said that the Fed needs to maintain confidence in inflation by moving cautiously and deliberately toward our 2% target. She said the Fed needs to keep rates unchanged for a while longer. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview that he expects only one 25 bps rate cut this year, which will come at the end of the year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it was too early to consider a rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is waiting to see if inflation slows. He also said he did not rule out the need for another rate hike, although he noted that the bar would be high for such a decision. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who takes a less hawkish view, said there is little evidence that inflation has stalled at 3%.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary May Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.8 points to a 6-month low of 67.4, weaker than market expectations. At the same time, US consumers’ inflation expectations rose. The expected inflation indicator from the University of Michigan for May rose by 0.3 points to 3.5% from April’s 3.2% and was stronger than expectations of an unchanged 3.2%. In addition, the May 5–10-year inflation expectations indicator rose to 3.1% from April’s 3.0%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.46% (for the week +4.29%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed Friday up 0.38% (for the week +3.05%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.50% (for the week +2.09%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63% (for the week +3.20%).

The DAX (DE40) index gained nearly 0.5% on Friday to close at a record high of 18,773, extending its weekly gain to 4.3% as investors remain optimistic that major central banks will soon begin cutting interest rates. Minutes from the ECB’s latest meeting coincided with the current view that the Central Bank should cut rates in June as the cycle’s governor agreed that inflation is approaching the target faster. Positive corporate developments also boosted sentiment. Siemens shares jumped by 2.3%, closing at an all-time high among the leaders.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $78 a barrel on Monday, extending losses from the previous session as uncertainty over demand pressured the market. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday as US Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rates could remain elevated for a long time, dampening growth and fuel demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the upcoming OPEC meeting in early June, where the group is expected to extend supply cuts for the year’s second half.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.57% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.57%.

China’s annualized inflation rate for April 2024 rose to 0.3% compared to market estimates and March’s 0.1%. This was the third consecutive month of rising consumer inflation amid a continued recovery in domestic demand despite a fragile economic recovery. On the other hand, producer prices in China fell to 2.5% y/y in April 2024, compared to market forecasts of a 2.3% y/y drop following a 2.8% y/y decline in March. The figure marked the 19th consecutive month of factory price declines, underscoring continued economic uncertainty despite numerous support measures from the government. The offshore yuan depreciated around 7.24 per dollar, reacting to key economic data from China.

The NAB Australia Business Confidence Index for April 2024 stood at 1, unchanged for the second consecutive month and below its long-term average. Weak sentiment in retail, wholesale trade, and mining offset leisure and personal services, construction, and manufacturing improvements.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,222.68 +8.60 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,512.84 +125.08 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,772.85 +86.25 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,433.76 +52.41 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.31 +0.09 (+0.09%)

Important events today:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Stock Market News

13 May

Brent crude oil faces downward pressure amid demand uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of Brent crude oil is currently experiencing a downturn, trading around 82.55 USD per barrel this Monday. The primary concern affecting the market today is the uncertainty surrounding demand levels, exerting significant pressure on the commodity.

Recent statements from representatives of the US Federal Reserve have led to expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period. This prospect of sustained high rates is likely to dampen economic growth, which could, in turn, negatively impact fuel demand from American consumers. The likelihood that the Fed will maintain current lending rates throughout the year is considered relatively high.

Additionally, data released on Friday showed a marked decline in US consumer confidence, reinforcing concerns that the economy might be losing its growth momentum. As we approach the summer season, traditionally a peak period for fuel consumption, the latest reports indicate rising stocks of petrol and distillates in the US. However, demand appears lacklustre, contradicting typical seasonal trends.

The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for early June. The group is expected to extend its production quotas into the second half of the year, a decision that could further impact oil price movements.

Brent technical analysis

The Brent H4 chart’s initial growth impulse to 84.24 has been completed, and the subsequent correction wave nearing 82.02 is almost finished. We anticipate the formation of a consolidation range above this level. If the price breaks upwards from this range, a growth to the level of 85.00 is expected, potentially extending to 88.00. This bullish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero but pointing upwards from the lows.

On the H1 chart, after completing the growth structure to 84.24, the market has finalised its correction at 82.02. A consolidation range above this level is expected to form. A breakout upwards from this range could initiate a new growth wave towards 85.00. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this potential upward movement, with its signal line currently above 20 and aiming towards 80, suggesting a bullish momentum could be building.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

12 May

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro & USD Index out of bearish levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (33,466 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,719 contracts), the EuroFX (11,367 contracts), the British Pound (7,177 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,888 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies with declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-37,929 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,733 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,020 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,640 contracts), Bitcoin (-789 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-1 contract) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro, USD Index out of bearish levels

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is that both the Euro and the US dollar index speculator positions were modestly boosted out of their bearish levels into small positive positions. Also, the Japanese yen and Australian dollar positions were well bid through Tuesday.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Japanese yen contracts jumped this week by over +33,000 contracts which marked the highest one-week amount since 2020. The yen speculator position has now gained for two weeks in a row amid rumored currency intervention by the Japanese authorities that are trying to arrest deep declines in the yen. The USDJPY currency pair still trades over 155.00 which is close to over thirty-year highs for the US dollar against the yen.

The Australian dollar speculator position rose strongly this week by over +18,000 contracts following a boost by +13,004 contracts on April 30th. The AUD speculator bets have now gained for three straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks. Recently, the speculator position for the Aussie had dropped to an all-time record low on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts. Since then, speculator bets have improved significantly and are currently at -64,516 contracts.

The Euro bounced back again this week with a gain of +11,367 contracts and a follows up a small rise last week. The improvement in the overall net position has brought the speculative standing back into bullish territory following two straight weeks in bearish territory. That was the first time the Euro contracts had been in bearish territory since September of 2022.

The US dollar index bets also came out of bearish territory this week for the first time in seven weeks. The USD Index bets rose by 1,888 contracts and gained for the fifth straight week. The contracts had been in bullish territory for a total of 142 straight weeks before dropping into a bearish position on March 26th.

The Mexican Peso speculative position decreased this week for a fourth straight week but did so modestly (-6,733 contracts) and remains in a strong bullish level. The MXN speculator’s current standing (+112,312 contracts) remains above +100,000 contract level for 1oth consecutive week. The MXN peso exchange rate has bounced back with gains in the past two weeks after a steep pullback in the middle of April.

The Swiss franc position was virtually unchanged this week (-1 contract) but continues to remain near the lowest levels since 2019 at a total of -41,787 contracts. The franc is one of the most extremely bearish markets in the COT data we follow. The franc’s exchange rate against the US dollar has been on the decline with an approximate drop by over 8 percent since December 2023. The CHFUSD currently trades around the major levels near 1.1050 – 1.1100.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) and the Bitcoin (55 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (39 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (9 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.8 percent)
EuroFX (22.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (89.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (43.0 percent)
Bitcoin (54.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.5 percent)

Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (4 percent), the Japanese Yen (-4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-54.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-37.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-14.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.4 percent)
Bitcoin (4.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.2	21.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	29.4	5.2
– Net Position:	1,853	-3,392	1,539
– Gross Longs:	28,881	9,260	3,753
– Gross Shorts:	27,028	12,652	2,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	93.5	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.0	-1.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	60.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	63.5	8.8
– Net Position:	4,590	-22,279	17,689
– Gross Longs:	170,594	393,845	75,156
– Gross Shorts:	166,004	416,124	57,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	80.9	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	11.9	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	63.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	48.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-21,813	32,970	-11,157
– Gross Longs:	51,777	141,835	21,445
– Gross Shorts:	73,590	108,865	32,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	64.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.8	39.2	-26.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 33,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -168,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	25.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-134,922	141,773	-6,851
– Gross Longs:	34,990	219,305	37,333
– Gross Shorts:	169,912	77,532	44,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	76.9	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	7.5	-20.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.9	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	21.7	23.1
– Net Position:	-41,787	53,109	-11,322
– Gross Longs:	9,237	73,684	10,557
– Gross Shorts:	51,024	20,575	21,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	92.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	23.5	18.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	68.5	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	35.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-69,221	71,845	-2,624
– Gross Longs:	32,945	148,390	29,719
– Gross Shorts:	102,166	76,545	32,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	88.7	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	10.0	3.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	64.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	29.8	13.3
– Net Position:	-64,516	72,522	-8,006
– Gross Longs:	49,480	135,023	19,859
– Gross Shorts:	113,996	62,501	27,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.9	66.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.0	-33.2	11.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	60.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.2	35.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-11,191	13,792	-2,601
– Gross Longs:	19,060	33,531	3,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,251	19,739	5,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	74.3	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	14.8	-11.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	40.9	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	88.1	1.1
– Net Position:	112,312	-116,374	4,062
– Gross Longs:	137,564	101,075	6,829
– Gross Shorts:	25,252	217,449	2,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.6	13.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.2	-9.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	79.9	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.3	16.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-37,643	37,468	175
– Gross Longs:	9,546	46,966	2,236
– Gross Shorts:	47,189	9,498	2,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.6	54.1	-22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	4.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	4.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-783	134	649
– Gross Longs:	20,770	1,181	1,588
– Gross Shorts:	21,553	1,047	939
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	68.1	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	0.6	-7.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,863 contracts) with Copper (4,584 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-4,643 contracts), Silver (-842 contracts), Steel (-720 contracts) and with Palladium (-18 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (68.4 percent)
Silver (92.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.3 percent)
Copper (100.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (95.3 percent)
Platinum (54.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (36.2 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.2 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (40 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.2 percent)
Silver (3.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (40.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (26.6 percent)
Platinum (17.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.4 percent)
Palladium (-7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.5 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 199,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	23.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	66.5	5.1
– Net Position:	199,567	-227,266	27,699
– Gross Longs:	272,144	124,899	54,701
– Gross Shorts:	72,577	352,165	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	32.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-3.6	27.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 53,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	24.2	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	70.2	7.2
– Net Position:	53,652	-74,415	20,763
– Gross Longs:	81,650	39,225	32,441
– Gross Shorts:	27,998	113,640	11,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	3.6	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-11.3	36.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	21.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	44.7	5.1
– Net Position:	62,648	-70,012	7,364
– Gross Longs:	160,147	64,280	22,549
– Gross Shorts:	97,499	134,292	15,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.6	-2.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	24.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	47.2	4.9
– Net Position:	13,660	-18,348	4,688
– Gross Longs:	45,232	19,732	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	31,572	38,080	3,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	44.7	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.1	-7.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	51.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	10.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-11,088	10,600	488
– Gross Longs:	5,823	13,220	2,230
– Gross Shorts:	16,911	2,620	1,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	85.1	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.6	36.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	80.4	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	67.4	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,383	3,335	48
– Gross Longs:	3,606	20,678	362
– Gross Shorts:	6,989	17,343	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	17.3	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	5.8	8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

11 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (126,619 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (49,384 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-48,655 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-17,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-24,279 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,970 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-5,790 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,555 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (98 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (97.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (70.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (74.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (42.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (44.0 percent)

Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (68 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (67.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-15.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-31.9 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -339,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	59.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-339,562	341,716	-2,154
– Gross Longs:	1,446,213	6,144,809	36,213
– Gross Shorts:	1,785,775	5,803,093	38,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	57.3	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.5	33.9	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	54.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	63.2	2.6
– Net Position:	136,965	-127,034	-9,931
– Gross Longs:	356,452	833,174	30,131
– Gross Shorts:	219,487	960,208	40,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	2.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	67.7	-65.7	-15.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,022,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,016,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	79.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	57.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,022,233	880,495	141,738
– Gross Longs:	516,333	3,230,397	269,053
– Gross Shorts:	1,538,566	2,349,902	127,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	67.1	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	6.4	7.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,163,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,146,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.7	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,163,849	1,059,427	104,422
– Gross Longs:	483,030	5,038,983	429,855
– Gross Shorts:	1,646,879	3,979,556	325,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	78.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	1.3	-0.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -481,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	77.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	67.6	8.8
– Net Position:	-481,620	457,222	24,398
– Gross Longs:	455,924	3,437,718	411,798
– Gross Shorts:	937,544	2,980,496	387,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	53.5	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.6	-3.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -214,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 49,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	62.1	13.8
– Net Position:	-214,299	304,341	-90,042
– Gross Longs:	268,050	1,635,316	205,566
– Gross Shorts:	482,349	1,330,975	295,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	89.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	26.1	-18.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	69.6	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	70.5	10.2
– Net Position:	-24,669	-14,890	39,559
– Gross Longs:	267,918	1,116,846	202,830
– Gross Shorts:	292,587	1,131,736	163,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	8.8	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	8.8	-13.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -310,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	79.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	61.3	10.1
– Net Position:	-316,115	305,248	10,867
– Gross Longs:	147,986	1,312,271	176,682
– Gross Shorts:	464,101	1,007,023	165,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	45.9	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	10.8	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (3,466 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,289 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,633 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-52,828 contracts), the VIX (-16,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,851 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (74.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (68.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (46.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (58.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (51.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (54.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (18 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (24.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (23.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-18.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (17.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	42.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-38,879	41,509	-2,630
– Gross Longs:	98,258	171,486	30,089
– Gross Shorts:	137,137	129,977	32,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	25.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-14.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	70.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	75.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-9,695	-95,129	104,824
– Gross Longs:	262,778	1,436,696	280,192
– Gross Shorts:	272,473	1,531,825	175,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	26.8	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-23.4	4.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	73.2	12.5
– Net Position:	8,664	-10,847	2,183
– Gross Longs:	19,305	57,061	13,773
– Gross Shorts:	10,641	67,908	11,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	22.5	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.4	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	52.8	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	57.4	14.7
– Net Position:	4,405	-10,633	6,228
– Gross Longs:	65,234	124,251	40,762
– Gross Shorts:	60,829	134,884	34,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	40.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-10.5	-4.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	76.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	69.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-38,000	31,638	6,362
– Gross Longs:	72,277	353,891	29,050
– Gross Shorts:	110,277	322,253	22,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	40.8	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.8	-12.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	66.6	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	56.5	13.1
– Net Position:	-3,407	1,621	1,786
– Gross Longs:	1,465	10,675	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	4,872	9,054	2,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	40.9	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	10.3	-12.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	90.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-13,996	7,912	6,084
– Gross Longs:	24,945	373,543	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	38,941	365,631	6,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	45.2	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	5.5	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (112,070 contracts) with Soybeans (102,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (41,851 contracts), Wheat (6,671 contracts) and Soybean Oil (4,889 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-13,582 contracts), Sugar (-11,744 contracts), Cotton (-11,086 contracts), Coffee (-5,713 contracts), Live Cattle (-328 contracts) and with Cocoa (-590 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Lean Hogs (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (58 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Cotton (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.2 percent)
Coffee (87.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybeans (32.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (40.6 percent)
Live Cattle (25.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.3 percent)
Cotton (14.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.2 percent)
Cocoa (37.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.7 percent)
Wheat (55.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (43 percent) and Wheat (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (22 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Coffee (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-61 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-26 percent), Sugar (-26 percent) and Live Cattle (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.1 percent)
Sugar (-26.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (6.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (42.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-32.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (3.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.0 percent)
Cotton (-60.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.5 percent)
Cocoa (-10.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-18.8 percent)
Wheat (30.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	42.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	38.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-31,354	56,642	-25,288
– Gross Longs:	311,911	621,487	139,562
– Gross Shorts:	343,265	564,845	164,850
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.0	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-18.3	-11.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	53.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	56.1	8.4
– Net Position:	28,561	-25,176	-3,385
– Gross Longs:	200,063	438,212	65,992
– Gross Shorts:	171,502	463,388	69,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	27.9	-28.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.2	2.7
– Net Position:	62,877	-66,039	3,162
– Gross Longs:	85,054	79,896	9,211
– Gross Shorts:	22,177	145,935	6,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	12.4	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-8.1	21.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	57.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	47.4	8.8
– Net Position:	-60,048	74,323	-14,275
– Gross Longs:	123,324	426,277	51,042
– Gross Shorts:	183,372	351,954	65,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	69.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.4	-4.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	53.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-51,553	50,351	1,202
– Gross Longs:	113,697	293,066	30,181
– Gross Shorts:	165,250	242,715	28,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	97.3	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	24.4	-7.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	40.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	61.0	5.5
– Net Position:	73,970	-95,405	21,435
– Gross Longs:	139,373	182,605	46,648
– Gross Shorts:	65,403	278,010	25,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.5	-43.0	21.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	36.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	49.8	11.9
– Net Position:	43,475	-37,324	-6,151
– Gross Longs:	96,844	98,469	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	53,369	135,793	32,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	77.1	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	26.5	9.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	35.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	46.4	9.8
– Net Position:	38,356	-31,763	-6,593
– Gross Longs:	100,612	103,759	22,074
– Gross Shorts:	62,256	135,522	28,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	40.0	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.6	-3.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	44.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	48.0	6.0
– Net Position:	8,136	-7,960	-176
– Gross Longs:	66,141	93,741	12,568
– Gross Shorts:	58,005	101,701	12,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	85.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-60.6	60.5	-52.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	35.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.1	3.9
– Net Position:	26,562	-32,495	5,933
– Gross Longs:	44,579	51,829	11,641
– Gross Shorts:	18,017	84,324	5,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	59.5	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	29.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-17,785	27,005	-9,220
– Gross Longs:	122,686	135,193	25,281
– Gross Shorts:	140,471	108,188	34,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	46.8	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-25.7	-40.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 May

Speculator Extremes: Copper, Fed Funds, Brazil Real & Sugar top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 40.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 62,648 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Fed Funds speculator level is now at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 67.7 this week. The speculator position registered 136,965 net contracts this week with a weekly surge higher of 126,619 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 53,652 net contracts this week with a small dip by -842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,990 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,015 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 87.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.7 this week.

The speculator position was 62,877 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,713 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -52.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,643 net contracts this week with a gigantic drop by -37,929 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.0 this week. The speculator position was 28,561 net contracts this week with a decrease by -11,744 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level resides at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -35.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -41,787 net contracts this week with a tiny decline by just -1 contract in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The speculator position was -51,553 net contracts this week with an increase of 4,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 8.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.2 this week. The speculator position was 1,853 net contracts this week with a change of 1,888 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

There’s a new winner among FXTM’s Asian stock indices!

However, CHINAH has been on a tear, climbing as much as 19.75% since that mid-April trough.

NOTE: FXTM’s CHINAH stock index mirrors the performance of the underlying Hang Seng China Enterprises index. It tracks 50 of the largest and most liquid stocks from Mainland China that are listed in Hong Kong.

Why are China’s stock markets climbing?

But now, with Beijing’s boosters on the way, such optimism is in turn fuelling a recovery in Chinese stock indices.

The news is sending CHINAH 0.6% higher today!

What could move CHINAH higher/lower this week?

1) Chinese stocks’ earnings: May 14th – 16th

These 8 reporting companies combined account for 30% of the entire CHINAH stock index!

2) China policy rate: Wednesday, May 15th

In the unlikely event of a surprise rate cut by the PBoC this week, that’s likely to jolt the CHINAH stock index even higher!

3) US April consumer price index (CPI): Wednesday, May 15th

The US CPI is one of the most closely-watched economic data that could rock financial assets around the world, including FX markets, gold, and stock indexes!

Higher-than-expected CPI figures may drag down stock indexes around the world, including the CHINAH (and vice versa).

Key levels this week

Beware of potential technical pullback

“Golden cross” offers technical bullish signal?

A “golden cross” is a technical pattern when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above its 200-day counterpart.

How much higher can CHINAH go?

If so, that would restore the CHINAH stock index back to its end-June 2022 peak!

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro, USD Index out of bearish levels

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Copper

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

NOTE: FXTM’s CHINAH stock index mirrors the performance of the underlying Hang Seng China Enterprises index.
It tracks 50 of the largest and most liquid stocks from Mainland China that are listed in Hong Kong.