COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 67

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Commodity Currencies (Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi) lead COT Speculators bet changes this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British pound sterling & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (10,369 contracts) with the Japanese yen (4,230 contracts), the Mexican peso (3,667 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,089 contracts), the Swiss franc (962 contracts), Bitcoin (889 contracts) and the Brazilian real (296 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-6,183 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-5,064 contracts), the Canadian dollar (-4,265 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-3,507 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week is the weakness for the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar all had lower speculator bets this week and are all firmly in negative territory at the moment.

The Canadian dollar speculator positions fell this week for the sixth consecutive week and have declined by a total of -49,851 contracts over that time-period. This recent weakness has brought the CAD bets to their most bearish level in 52 weeks, dating back to October 12th of 2021. The CAD exchange level has been sharply falling as well and dropped this week to its lowest level since May of 2020.

The New Zealand dollar positions declined for the second straight week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Speculators have now pushed their overall net positioning (-19,042 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 18 weeks, dating back to June 7th. NZD spec positions have been bearish for twenty-three out of the last twenty-four weeks. The New Zealand dollar price has been on the defensive and has, in particular, been dropping sharply over the past six weeks (over -500 pips). The NZDUSD currency pair this week also touched the lowest level since the pandemic lows of March 2020 below the 0.5600 exchange rate.

The Australian dollar spec positioning, meanwhile, fell this week for the first time in four weeks. Aussie speculator positions have now been in a continuous bearish level for 73 straight weeks, dating back to May 18th of 2021. Although the current positioning (-31,271 contracts) is near the lower end of the bearish range that has seen levels above -80,000 contracts, the AUD currency price has also been dropping. The AUDUSD currency pair has fallen for five straight weeks and hit its lowest level against the US dollar since April of 2020.

All three of these currencies are currently oversold against the US dollar on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) and worth watching for potential peaks in the weeks and months ahead.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	54,615	77	32,786	80	-36,847	17	4,061	61
EUR	639,348	52	37,499	47	-60,161	59	22,662	15
GBP	255,649	71	-39,170	35	64,804	78	-25,634	8
JPY	245,007	77	-77,393	21	94,449	82	-17,056	19
CHF	43,748	28	-5,890	42	17,983	72	-12,093	17
CAD	144,000	26	-25,672	11	27,366	92	-1,694	27
AUD	138,320	36	-31,271	56	42,692	51	-11,421	25
NZD	50,557	45	-19,042	37	22,517	67	-3,475	12
MXN	206,170	52	-33,654	13	27,839	84	5,815	68
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,360	28	26,075	76	-27,966	24	1,891	87
Bitcoin	15,756	93	857	92	-1,077	0	220	18

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin, US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (91.9 percent) jumped back to lead the currency markets and is in a bullish extreme position above 80 percent. The US Dollar Index (79.6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76.0 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (13.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish positions this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (77.8 percent)
EuroFX (46.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (55.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (59.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (45.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (13.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.7 percent)
Bitcoin (91.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by EuroFX, Australian Dollar &

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (26.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (24.2 percent) and the Brazilian Real (16.9 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-27.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (26.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-18.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-26.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-27.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-21.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (16.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-7.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-17.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	3.1	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	70.6	4.6
– Net Position:	32,786	-36,847	4,061
– Gross Longs:	45,079	1,708	6,563
– Gross Shorts:	12,293	38,555	2,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	17.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	2.7	11.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 37,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	54.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	64.0	8.4
– Net Position:	37,499	-60,161	22,662
– Gross Longs:	196,136	349,091	76,656
– Gross Shorts:	158,637	409,252	53,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	59.0	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-25.3	6.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	70.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	44.9	17.7
– Net Position:	-39,170	64,804	-25,634
– Gross Longs:	48,979	179,700	19,620
– Gross Shorts:	88,149	114,896	45,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	78.1	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.0	-6.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -77,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	37.8	17.0
– Net Position:	-77,393	94,449	-17,056
– Gross Longs:	30,149	187,119	24,526
– Gross Shorts:	107,542	92,670	41,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	81.7	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	16.2	5.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	67.3	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	26.2	47.7
– Net Position:	-5,890	17,983	-12,093
– Gross Longs:	5,501	29,436	8,770
– Gross Shorts:	11,391	11,453	20,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	72.2	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	4.0	3.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	54.1	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	35.1	22.8
– Net Position:	-25,672	27,366	-1,694
– Gross Longs:	32,476	77,929	31,136
– Gross Shorts:	58,148	50,563	32,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	91.5	26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-56.0	47.0	-13.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	62.5	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	31.7	21.4
– Net Position:	-31,271	42,692	-11,421
– Gross Longs:	29,325	86,475	18,245
– Gross Shorts:	60,596	43,783	29,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.7	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-14.8	-15.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -19,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	70.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.2	26.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-19,042	22,517	-3,475
– Gross Longs:	11,894	35,834	2,771
– Gross Shorts:	30,936	13,317	6,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	66.9	11.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	25.3	-0.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -33,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.3	37.5	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	24.0	1.2
– Net Position:	-33,654	27,839	5,815
– Gross Longs:	120,239	77,393	8,294
– Gross Shorts:	153,893	49,554	2,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	84.4	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	0.9	10.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	21.0	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	88.6	3.1
– Net Position:	26,075	-27,966	1,891
– Gross Longs:	28,829	8,697	3,182
– Gross Shorts:	2,754	36,663	1,291
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	24.0	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-16.6	-2.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.6	0.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	7.0	5.0
– Net Position:	857	-1,077	220
– Gross Longs:	12,704	33	1,007
– Gross Shorts:	11,847	1,110	787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	12.2	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	12.2	4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Oct

Weekly Energy Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Heating Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (17,221 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,668 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (176 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gasoline (-4,974 contracts) with Natural Gas (-3,007 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,499,498	3	259,220	13	-283,626	88	24,406	41
Gold	431,395	0	94,420	14	-103,728	87	9,308	3
Silver	125,623	0	7,389	22	-15,603	80	8,214	10
Copper	167,449	8	-15,899	24	16,903	80	-1,004	19
Palladium	6,890	5	-754	19	810	79	-56	41
Platinum	52,435	9	5,928	17	-8,690	85	2,762	5
Natural Gas	974,468	5	-162,103	30	130,099	72	32,004	56
Brent	163,113	11	-41,888	41	38,882	58	3,006	50
Heating Oil	275,262	25	19,423	71	-38,448	30	19,025	64
Soybeans	694,960	26	55,769	30	-30,614	77	-25,155	29
Corn	1,408,939	20	325,121	72	-258,225	35	-66,896	5
Coffee	188,198	3	40,534	73	-43,359	30	2,825	29
Sugar	687,209	0	101,115	57	-135,145	43	34,030	50
Wheat	307,901	9	-1,990	16	8,705	72	-6,715	76

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) and Heating Oil (71.0 percent) lead the energy markets with scores above 50 percent.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) and Gasoline (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and both are in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.4 percent)
Natural Gas (29.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (30.8 percent)
Gasoline (15.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.3 percent)
Heating Oil (71.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (65.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (77.6 percent)

Bloomberg Commodity Index leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) followed by Gasoline (-6.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.7 percent)
Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-9.2 percent)
Gasoline (-6.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (18.6 percent)

Individual COT Energy Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 259,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	39.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.7	57.9	3.5
– Net Position:	259,220	-283,626	24,406
– Gross Longs:	345,258	584,609	76,359
– Gross Shorts:	86,038	868,235	51,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	87.7	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-7.4	-4.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,820 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	51.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	27.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-41,888	38,882	3,006
– Gross Longs:	28,606	83,836	7,999
– Gross Shorts:	70,494	44,954	4,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.9	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	3.8	-5.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	44.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	31.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-162,103	130,099	32,004
– Gross Longs:	140,917	432,665	65,929
– Gross Shorts:	303,020	302,566	33,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	71.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.9	-10.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	53.0	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	71.9	5.6
– Net Position:	43,282	-48,643	5,361
– Gross Longs:	73,663	136,457	19,739
– Gross Shorts:	30,381	185,100	14,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	84.7	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	4.6	10.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	48.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	62.4	9.6
– Net Position:	19,423	-38,448	19,025
– Gross Longs:	41,620	133,301	45,373
– Gross Shorts:	22,197	171,749	26,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	30.3	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.7	1.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	76.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	63.8	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,623	7,468	155
– Gross Longs:	11,559	45,105	253
– Gross Shorts:	19,182	37,637	98
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.0	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-18.4	-6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

15 Oct

Bonds Speculators add to 2-Year Treasury Bonds bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

10-Year Bond & Ultra US Bond lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond market was the 10-Year Bond (26,709 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (26,591 contracts), the Long US Bond (19,731 contracts), the Fed Funds (7,692 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (6,320 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-55,468 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-47,552 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-888 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the bearishness of the 2-Year Bond market. Speculators added over -47,000 contracts this week to the overall bearish position. The decline in the 2-Year this week follows three straight weeks of lessening bearish levels. This bearish reboot pushed the overall bearish standing up to -353,686 total net contracts which is the most in five weeks and the second highest in past 79 weeks. The 2-Year is feeling the brunt of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign (to subdue inflation) and will likely not get a reprieve any time soon with inflation coming in higher again this week. The 2-Year yield (as bond prices fall, yields rise) ended the week at just under 4.50 percent and significantly higher from a 2-Year yield of just 0.38 percent on October 15th of 2021, exactly one year ago today.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,129,682	0	-2,143,216	14	2,373,775	83	-230,559	54
FedFunds	1,617,720	50	888	40	22,183	63	-23,071	1
2-Year	2,045,923	12	-353,686	11	443,750	100	-90,064	12
Long T-Bond	1,211,229	45	-83,792	57	56,157	31	27,635	75
10-Year	3,873,986	56	-340,163	21	392,171	68	-52,008	68
5-Year	4,040,583	54	-483,920	12	601,685	87	-117,765	49

US Treasury Bond leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (57.3 percent) lead the bonds category. This is the only market above 50 percent or the midpoint of its 3-year range. The Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.3 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and its score this week has risen from 31.5 percent last week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.1 percent), the 2-Year Bond (10.8 percent), the 5-Year Bond (12.3 percent) and the Eurodollar (13.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme speculator levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (38.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.5 percent)
Eurodollar (13.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.7 percent)

Strength Trends led by 10-Year Bond

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Eurodollar (13.2 percent), the 5-Year Bond (12.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-15.0 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-14.6 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week followed by the Fed Funds (-10.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-10.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-13.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-13.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-15.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-4.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Eurodollar (13.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.6 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,143,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -55,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,087,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	69.4	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	40.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-2,143,216	2,373,775	-230,559
– Gross Longs:	591,090	5,639,550	411,933
– Gross Shorts:	2,734,306	3,265,775	642,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	83.5	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.1	-7.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	73.3	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	71.9	2.8
– Net Position:	888	22,183	-23,071
– Gross Longs:	172,327	1,185,073	22,805
– Gross Shorts:	171,439	1,162,890	45,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	62.6	0.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	12.2	-42.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -353,686 contracts in the cot data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -47,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -306,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	82.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	61.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-353,686	443,750	-90,064
– Gross Longs:	143,277	1,692,889	160,698
– Gross Shorts:	496,963	1,249,139	250,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	100.0	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	18.5	-10.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -483,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -483,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	85.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.6	10.4
– Net Position:	-483,920	601,685	-117,765
– Gross Longs:	243,772	3,456,189	303,741
– Gross Shorts:	727,692	2,854,504	421,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	86.6	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.3	3.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -340,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 26,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -366,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.3	10.3
– Net Position:	-340,163	392,171	-52,008
– Gross Longs:	382,909	3,039,993	345,964
– Gross Shorts:	723,072	2,647,822	397,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	68.5	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-19.8	15.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -75,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	81.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	68.3	17.7
– Net Position:	-75,771	182,196	-106,425
– Gross Longs:	109,093	1,127,822	138,379
– Gross Shorts:	184,864	945,626	244,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	87.0	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	14.7	0.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -83,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	78.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	73.9	11.5
– Net Position:	-83,792	56,157	27,635
– Gross Longs:	81,465	951,230	166,967
– Gross Shorts:	165,257	895,073	139,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	30.6	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	5.5	-0.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -350,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	82.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	60.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-350,232	303,283	46,949
– Gross Longs:	88,146	1,171,440	160,022
– Gross Shorts:	438,378	868,157	113,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	63.2	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-9.8	10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates investing Opinions

15 Oct

COT Metals Speculators boost their Gold bullish bets 2nd week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes shows Gold, Platinum & Copper have higher bets

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (6,035 contracts) with Platinum (2,647 contracts) and Copper (2,352 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Silver (-1,319 contracts) with Palladium (-158 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals COT markets this week is the Gold positioning that has rebounded slightly from the steep declines over the past couple of months. Gold speculator bets rose for a second straight week this week after seeing a decline in the previous seven straight weeks (a total drop of -90,770 speculator contracts over that period). The Gold position, on September 27th, had fallen to the lowest level in the past 179-weeks before rebounding over the past two weeks. Last week’s rise in speculator bets by over +36,000 contracts was the largest one-week increase since February 18th of 2020 and today’s speculator positioning is now back close to the +100,000 contract level. Gold prices, meanwhile, are currently trading just below the $1,650 support level after falling over 3 percent this week. The price decline is potentially setting up a new test of the 2-year lows under $1,620 that took place in late September.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,499,498	3	259,220	13	-283,626	88	24,406	41
Gold	431,395	0	94,420	14	-103,728	87	9,308	3
Silver	125,623	0	7,389	22	-15,603	80	8,214	10
Copper	167,449	8	-15,899	24	16,903	80	-1,004	19
Palladium	6,890	5	-754	19	810	79	-56	41
Platinum	52,435	9	5,928	17	-8,690	85	2,762	5
Natural Gas	974,468	5	-162,103	30	130,099	72	32,004	56
Brent	163,113	11	-41,888	41	38,882	58	3,006	50
Heating Oil	275,262	25	19,423	71	-38,448	30	19,025	64
Soybeans	694,960	26	55,769	30	-30,614	77	-25,155	29
Corn	1,408,939	20	325,121	72	-258,225	35	-66,896	5
Coffee	188,198	3	40,534	73	-43,359	30	2,825	29
Sugar	687,209	0	101,115	57	-135,145	43	34,030	50
Wheat	307,901	9	-1,990	16	8,705	72	-6,715	76

Silver and Copper top the Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Copper (23.7 percent) and Silver (22.3 percent) lead the metals this week.

On the downside, Gold (14.0 percent), Platinum (17.1 percent) and Palladium (19.1 percent) continue to be at the lower end of their range and are all in bearish extreme positions below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (14.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.0 percent)
Silver (22.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.7 percent)
Copper (23.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.8 percent)
Platinum (17.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (19.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.0 percent)

Strength Trends led Silver and Platinum

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Silver (17.3 percent) and Platinum (15.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (5.9 percent) and Palladium (2.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

This leaves Gold (-7.7 percent) as the only negative mover over the past six weeks. Gold, however, has been seeing improvements in the past few weeks and is higher this week from -12.4 percent last week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-7.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-12.4 percent)
Silver (17.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.6 percent)
Copper (5.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.6 percent)
Platinum (15.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.2 percent)
Palladium (2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	26.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	50.2	6.4
– Net Position:	94,420	-103,728	9,308
– Gross Longs:	212,561	112,867	36,988
– Gross Shorts:	118,141	216,595	27,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	87.1	2.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.0	-6.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,708 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	37.9	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.3	10.5
– Net Position:	7,389	-15,603	8,214
– Gross Longs:	47,939	47,603	21,347
– Gross Shorts:	40,550	63,206	13,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	80.5	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.0	1.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	47.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	37.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-15,899	16,903	-1,004
– Gross Longs:	51,021	79,079	13,853
– Gross Shorts:	66,920	62,176	14,857
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	80.1	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.3	4.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	38.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	54.6	7.2
– Net Position:	5,928	-8,690	2,762
– Gross Longs:	24,306	19,947	6,554
– Gross Shorts:	18,378	28,637	3,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.1	85.1	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-11.8	-26.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	53.1	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	41.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-754	810	-56
– Gross Longs:	2,049	3,656	1,119
– Gross Shorts:	2,803	2,846	1,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	79.0	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-2.9	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

15 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Speculator positions led by jump in Sugar bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by jump in Sugar bets

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (54,028 contracts) with Corn (20,159 contracts) and Cocoa (13,522 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-10,988 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-9,321 contracts), Wheat (-7,614 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,461 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,453 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,165 contracts), Coffee (-1,617 contracts) and Cotton (-1,578 contracts) all having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT softs data was the jump in speculator bets for Sugar. This week’s speculator positions rose by over +54,000 contracts and the position has now risen in six of the past nine weeks (total gain of +75,050 contracts in that period). This bullishness has now pushed the overall Sugar net speculator standing (+101,115 contracts) to the most bullish level of the past twelve weeks, dating back to July 19th. Sugar prices trade near their highest levels since 2017 as production issues and tight supply keeps the market buoyant.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,499,498	3	259,220	13	-283,626	88	24,406	41
Gold	431,395	0	94,420	14	-103,728	87	9,308	3
Silver	125,623	0	7,389	22	-15,603	80	8,214	10
Copper	167,449	8	-15,899	24	16,903	80	-1,004	19
Palladium	6,890	5	-754	19	810	79	-56	41
Platinum	52,435	9	5,928	17	-8,690	85	2,762	5
Natural Gas	974,468	5	-162,103	30	130,099	72	32,004	56
Brent	163,113	11	-41,888	41	38,882	58	3,006	50
Heating Oil	275,262	25	19,423	71	-38,448	30	19,025	64
Soybeans	694,960	26	55,769	30	-30,614	77	-25,155	29
Corn	1,408,939	20	325,121	72	-258,225	35	-66,896	5
Coffee	188,198	3	40,534	73	-43,359	30	2,825	29
Sugar	687,209	0	101,115	57	-135,145	43	34,030	50
Wheat	307,901	9	-1,990	16	8,705	72	-6,715	76

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal, Coffee and Corn

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (81.3 percent), Coffee (73.1 percent) and Corn (71.6 percent) lead the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (57.4 percent) comes in as the only other soft commodity markets above 50 percent in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (16.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (71.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (57.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (46.3 percent)
Coffee (73.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybeans (30.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (81.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.4 percent)
Live Cattle (29.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (32.5 percent)
Cotton (37.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.9 percent)
Cocoa (30.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (16.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Wheat this week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Wheat (12.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (7.9 percent), Corn (5.3 percent) and Cocoa (5.3 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) and Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cotton (-11.6 percent) followed by Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.3 percent)
Coffee (-7.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-23.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-30.3 percent)
Cotton (-11.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.3 percent)
Wheat (12.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 325,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	45.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	63.6	13.3
– Net Position:	325,121	-258,225	-66,896
– Gross Longs:	445,776	637,863	120,700
– Gross Shorts:	120,655	896,088	187,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	35.1	4.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.6	-5.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 54,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	69.6	6.9
– Net Position:	101,115	-135,145	34,030
– Gross Longs:	183,050	343,017	81,678
– Gross Shorts:	81,935	478,162	47,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	42.5	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-11.9	29.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	70.4	3.4
– Net Position:	40,534	-43,359	2,825
– Gross Longs:	51,359	89,131	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	10,825	132,490	6,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	30.4	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.0	5.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	57.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	61.7	10.8
– Net Position:	55,769	-30,614	-25,155
– Gross Longs:	129,287	398,241	49,837
– Gross Shorts:	73,518	428,855	74,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	77.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	6.9	9.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	47.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	65.3	5.9
– Net Position:	57,879	-68,189	10,310
– Gross Longs:	90,140	187,787	33,605
– Gross Shorts:	32,261	255,976	23,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	57.3	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	5.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	41.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	74.1	7.1
– Net Position:	96,601	-118,422	21,821
– Gross Longs:	116,691	148,712	47,271
– Gross Shorts:	20,090	267,134	25,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	21.4	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.1	0.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	35.8	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.2	12.5
– Net Position:	39,665	-40,376	711
– Gross Longs:	89,016	94,076	33,558
– Gross Shorts:	49,351	134,452	32,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	58.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	23.8	11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	38.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	46.6	12.9
– Net Position:	19,141	-14,847	-4,294
– Gross Longs:	62,550	72,029	19,735
– Gross Shorts:	43,409	86,876	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	75.9	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.3	18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	50.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	66.9	4.3
– Net Position:	35,901	-38,518	2,617
– Gross Longs:	72,940	116,851	12,517
– Gross Shorts:	37,039	155,369	9,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	14.3	-34.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	43.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	48.7	3.5
– Net Position:	13,686	-16,330	2,644
– Gross Longs:	98,173	129,248	12,958
– Gross Shorts:	84,487	145,578	10,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	71.3	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-3.3	-20.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	40.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	38.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-1,990	8,705	-6,715
– Gross Longs:	84,943	126,068	28,094
– Gross Shorts:	86,933	117,363	34,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	72.0	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-8.8	-17.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

09 Oct

Currency Speculators continued to boost their Euro bets to 17-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (9,885 contracts) with the Australian dollar (6,889 contracts), the Mexican peso (4,001 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,135 contracts) and the Japanese yen (933 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,985 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-3,741 contracts), the British pound sterling (-3,115 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-2,507 contracts), the Swiss franc (-1,122 contracts) and Bitcoin (-1,056 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency positioning this week is the Euro speculators positioning that has improved for the fifth straight week. Euro speculators have now boosted their net positions by a total of +91,358 contracts over these past five weeks. This has taken the net positioning from -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +43,682 contracts this week and to the most bullish level since June 7th, a span of 17 weeks.

Speculators are clearly betting that the Euro is near or getting near a bottom against the US dollar as the Euro prices have been testing 20-year lows versus its American counterpart.

Speculator contracts are usually trend-following and stay relatively in lock-step with prices. The current unusual situation in the Euro contracts can be contrasted with other major currencies at the moment. The British pound sterling net positions are currently at -49,539 contracts while its currency is at similar multi-decade lows and the Japanese yen speculator level is at -81,623 contracts while its currency is also near its own 25-year lows.

The European economic situation seems to be as uncertain as the UK (recession?) and the Japanese (low interest rates) situations with an energy crisis potentially looming and a recession on the horizon. However, speculators are feeling differently at the moment.

Meanwhile in the markets, the EURUSD exchange rate remained below parity this week and fell modestly by less than -1.00 percent, closing out the week at the 0.9742 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	54,638	77	31,697	78	-36,817	17	5,120	73
EUR	640,458	55	43,682	48	-56,848	60	13,166	0
GBP	256,906	71	-49,539	26	79,116	88	-29,577	0
JPY	243,289	76	-81,623	19	93,324	81	-11,701	30
CHF	43,121	27	-6,852	39	16,022	69	-9,170	26
CAD	141,799	25	-21,407	15	17,947	84	3,460	37
AUD	139,490	37	-27,764	59	38,804	48	-11,040	26
NZD	48,487	41	-13,978	46	17,259	59	-3,281	14
MXN	192,352	46	-37,321	11	31,914	86	5,407	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	39,984	27	25,779	76	-27,570	24	1,791	86
Bitcoin	14,230	82	-32	76	-421	0	453	23

US Dollar Index (77.8 percent) leads Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (77.8 percent) is back in the lead for the currency markets scores. Bitcoin (76.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (75.7 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (11.4 percent), Canadian Dollar (15.3 percent) and the Japanese Yen (18.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently. All three of these markets are in bearish extreme positions with scores under the 20 percent level.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (77.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (75.9 percent)
EuroFX (48.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (45.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (26.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (29.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (45.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (83.6 percent)
Bitcoin (76.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.8 percent)

Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) leads Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (26.9 percent) and the Brazilian Real (19.1 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-50.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Japanese Yen (-26.4 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-21.7 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (-18.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-12.3 percent)
EuroFX (26.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-18.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-26.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-33.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-50.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-21.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.4	3.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	70.9	3.7
– Net Position:	31,697	-36,817	5,120
– Gross Longs:	44,449	1,926	7,123
– Gross Shorts:	12,752	38,743	2,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	17.3	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	1.2	28.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	54.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	63.3	9.5
– Net Position:	43,682	-56,848	13,166
– Gross Longs:	199,391	348,817	74,175
– Gross Shorts:	155,709	405,665	61,009
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	59.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-23.0	-10.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	43.9	17.9
– Net Position:	-49,539	79,116	-29,577
– Gross Longs:	42,078	191,819	16,367
– Gross Shorts:	91,617	112,703	45,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	87.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	20.3	-16.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	76.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	38.0	15.8
– Net Position:	-81,623	93,324	-11,701
– Gross Longs:	26,962	185,691	26,766
– Gross Shorts:	108,585	92,367	38,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.2	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	19.9	4.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	60.6	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	23.5	42.4
– Net Position:	-6,852	16,022	-9,170
– Gross Longs:	7,816	26,140	9,128
– Gross Shorts:	14,668	10,118	18,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	69.0	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	2.0	10.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	49.8	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	37.1	20.8
– Net Position:	-21,407	17,947	3,460
– Gross Longs:	36,246	70,624	33,001
– Gross Shorts:	57,653	52,677	29,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	83.7	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.1	39.7	-6.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	58.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	31.0	20.0
– Net Position:	-27,764	38,804	-11,040
– Gross Longs:	36,248	82,080	16,813
– Gross Shorts:	64,012	43,276	27,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	47.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.9	-18.9	-16.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	63.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	28.3	11.6
– Net Position:	-13,978	17,259	-3,281
– Gross Longs:	14,966	30,957	2,359
– Gross Shorts:	28,944	13,698	5,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	58.6	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	19.4	2.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	39.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.9	22.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-37,321	31,914	5,407
– Gross Longs:	108,626	75,648	7,916
– Gross Shorts:	145,947	43,734	2,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	86.1	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	1.8	6.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	19.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	88.8	2.9
– Net Position:	25,779	-27,570	1,791
– Gross Longs:	28,894	7,920	2,935
– Gross Shorts:	3,115	35,490	1,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	24.4	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-18.6	-4.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	2.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.9	5.5	5.9
– Net Position:	-32	-421	453
– Gross Longs:	11,481	363	1,291
– Gross Shorts:	11,513	784	838
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	44.1	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	37.8	5.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

09 Oct

Silver Speculator bets rise for 4th week, climb to highest since June

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week all across the board as all five of the metals markets we cover saw stronger sentiment and increased positioning.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (36,304 contracts) with Copper (9,505 contracts), Silver (7,950 contracts), Platinum (3,120 contracts) and Palladium (235 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Highlighting the COT Metals this week is the gains in the Silver speculator positions. Silver speculators boosted their bets this week for a fourth straight week and have now pushed their bets higher by +21,492 contracts over that time-frame. This recent turnaround in sentiment brought the overall net position back out of bearish territory after spending five straight weeks there from August 23rd to September 20th. This week’s total net position of +8,708 contracts is the best level for Silver since June 28th. The Silver price closed this week above the $20.25 level and managed to touch its highest level since June above $21 before closing lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,495,538	2	241,999	8	-260,854	94	18,855	31
Gold	437,065	0	88,385	12	-96,548	89	8,163	0
Silver	129,524	0	8,708	24	-17,617	79	8,909	13
Copper	166,161	7	-18,251	23	18,023	79	228	27
Palladium	7,080	5	-596	20	364	77	232	57
Platinum	55,682	14	3,281	13	-7,137	87	3,856	20
Natural Gas	967,126	4	-159,096	31	126,046	71	33,050	58
Brent	162,762	10	-39,820	44	38,106	57	1,714	32
Heating Oil	282,988	28	15,755	66	-32,103	37	16,348	55
Soybeans	677,178	22	66,757	34	-40,083	74	-26,674	26
Corn	1,365,622	14	304,962	69	-239,959	38	-65,003	6
Coffee	184,698	0	42,151	75	-44,264	29	2,113	19
Sugar	687,018	0	47,087	46	-63,354	56	16,267	28
Wheat	291,614	3	5,624	26	1,901	62	-7,525	71

Strength Scores show Silver and Copper rise

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Silver (23.7 percent) and Copper (22.8 percent) are leading the metals category currently. Both of these markets have now seen there strength scores improve and are above the 20 percent level and out of a bearish extreme position.

On the downside, Gold (12.0 percent), Platinum (13.5 percent) and Palladium (19.9 percent) continue to be at the lowest strength levels currently and in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (12.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.0 percent)
Silver (23.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.9 percent)
Copper (22.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.3 percent)
Platinum (13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.3 percent)
Palladium (19.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (18.6 percent)

Silver leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Silver (14.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Palladium (6.9 percent), Platinum (5.2 percent) and Copper (0.6 percent) are all seeing positive moves for the past 6-weeks in the latest trends data.

Gold (-12.4 percent) is the only market this week with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-12.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.5 percent)
Silver (14.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-3.0 percent)
Copper (0.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.4 percent)
Platinum (5.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.7 percent)
Palladium (6.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 88,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 36,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.4	26.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	48.7	6.5
– Net Position:	88,385	-96,548	8,163
– Gross Longs:	215,964	116,451	36,704
– Gross Shorts:	127,579	212,999	28,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	89.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	12.8	-10.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,708 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	36.9	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	50.5	10.1
– Net Position:	8,708	-17,617	8,909
– Gross Longs:	51,926	47,755	22,040
– Gross Shorts:	43,218	65,372	13,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	78.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-12.6	0.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	47.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	36.6	8.6
– Net Position:	-18,251	18,023	228
– Gross Longs:	50,470	78,817	14,537
– Gross Shorts:	68,721	60,794	14,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	79.0	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-2.4	14.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	37.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	50.7	6.0
– Net Position:	3,281	-7,137	3,856
– Gross Longs:	25,610	21,116	7,197
– Gross Shorts:	22,329	28,253	3,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	87.0	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.2	3.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	48.1	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	43.0	15.8
– Net Position:	-596	364	232
– Gross Longs:	2,191	3,409	1,352
– Gross Shorts:	2,787	3,045	1,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	76.6	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-9.9	31.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

09 Oct

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Nikkei 225 lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday October 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table, see a profile of speculators in COT markets in our cot reports guide.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal – 86.4 percent

This week there are only two bullish markets (above the 80 percent) and Soybean Meal is the most bullish market of the week. This market has come in near the top of the most bullish markets for several weeks now. The strength score for Soybean Meal is currently 86.4 percent, down from 91.5 percent last week and 97.9 percent the week before.

The net speculator positioning for Soybean Meal dipped for a second straight this week but the overall net position has remained above the +100,000 contract level for the thirteenth consecutive week. This is the longest such streak since the middle of 2018.

Nikkei 225 – 84.9 percent

The Nikkei 225 speculator futures position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is currently at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled 1,558 net contracts this week which was a change of just 38 contracts from last week. The Nikkei strength score is near the top of the list because over the past 3 years, speculators have usually held a bearish position and this has changed over the past two weeks (both bullish levels).

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI – 2.7 percent

The EAFE Mini registered as the most bearish of the markets this week. The EAFE came in with a strength score of just 2.7 percent out of its 3-year range, near the very bottom of its range.

Speculators sharply cut their net positions this week by -22,448 contracts and pushed the overall net positioning for speculators to the lowest level since July.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note – 7.4 percent

The Ultra 10-Year Bond large speculator position comes in as the next bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bond speculator level is currently at a 7.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -82,091 net contracts this week, a weekly change of -22,331 contracts from last week. This market has seen a total speculator net position decline of -75,305 contracts over the past three weeks and has pushed the net position to the lowest level since May 31st.

WTI Crude Oil – 8.3 percent

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position is next in line of the most bearish extreme standings on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently residing at a 8.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of 241,999 net contracts this week which had a positive gain by 15,919 contracts from last week. Overall, the net position for WTI futures has been under the +300,000 net contract level for the past sixteen weeks, something that has not happened since 2015.

Mexican Peso – 11.4 percent

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing of the week. The MXN speculator level currently sits at a 11.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -37,321 net contracts this week and had a gain by 4,001 contracts from last week. The peso net contract positioning has been lower in two out of the past three weeks and touched the lowest level in forty-two weeks last week (before this week’s gain by 4,001 contracts).

Russell 2000 Mini – 11.6 percent

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level is currently at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall large speculator position was -99,193 net contracts this week and had a gain by 6,868 contracts from last week. The Russell Mini has now been in a continuous bearish position for the past eighty weeks, dating back to March of 2021.

Gold – 12 percent

Finally, the Gold speculator position comes in as the sixth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Gold speculator level is currently at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 88,385 net contracts this week and bounced back from multiple weeks of declines to rise by 36,304 contracts from last week.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

08 Oct

Weekly COT Bonds Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 2-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (72,027 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (13,743 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (5,084 contracts) and the Long US Bond (2,987 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-109,287 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (-41,066 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-22,331 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-1,680 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-04-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,226,075	0	-2,087,748	15	2,343,911	83	-256,163	48
FedFunds	1,516,168	43	-6,804	39	24,908	63	-18,104	14
2-Year	1,963,479	8	-306,134	20	394,727	91	-88,593	12
Long T-Bond	1,213,680	47	-96,552	53	68,268	35	28,284	75
10-Year	3,850,494	54	-366,872	17	416,628	71	-49,756	68
5-Year	3,995,725	51	-483,032	12	625,173	89	-142,141	42

US Treasury Bond remains highest in Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (53.2 percent) leads the bonds markets currently and is the only market with a score above 50 percent (3-Year midpoint of range). The Fed Funds (38.8 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the 5-Year Bond (12.5 percent), the Eurodollar (14.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (16.7 percent). All of these markets are currently in bearish extreme levels with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (20.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (31.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
Eurodollar (14.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Eurodollar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (14.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 5-Year Bond (3.1 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (2.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-16.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.8 percent), Fed Funds (-13.5 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-13.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-13.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-13.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-21.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (14.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,087,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,159,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	68.2	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	39.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-2,087,748	2,343,911	-256,163
– Gross Longs:	674,365	5,606,961	401,184
– Gross Shorts:	2,762,113	3,263,050	657,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.0	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-15.5	17.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -109,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	74.5	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	72.8	2.9
– Net Position:	-6,804	24,908	-18,104
– Gross Longs:	151,759	1,129,098	25,617
– Gross Shorts:	158,563	1,104,190	43,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	62.9	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	14.8	-31.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -306,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	62.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-306,134	394,727	-88,593
– Gross Longs:	154,321	1,616,300	156,188
– Gross Shorts:	460,455	1,221,573	244,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	91.5	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	17.6	-11.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -483,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -41,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -441,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-483,032	625,173	-142,141
– Gross Longs:	234,418	3,425,691	296,148
– Gross Shorts:	717,450	2,800,518	438,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	89.5	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-1.4	-2.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -366,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -365,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	79.0	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	68.2	10.1
– Net Position:	-366,872	416,628	-49,756
– Gross Longs:	373,634	3,041,673	340,013
– Gross Shorts:	740,506	2,625,045	389,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	71.4	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-9.5	15.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -82,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	82.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	69.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-82,091	167,665	-85,574
– Gross Longs:	84,183	1,113,708	149,111
– Gross Shorts:	166,274	946,043	234,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	83.3	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	8.3	16.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -96,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	78.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-96,552	68,268	28,284
– Gross Longs:	71,317	950,661	172,811
– Gross Shorts:	167,869	882,393	144,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	35.0	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.8	1.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -376,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -381,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	83.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	60.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-376,823	320,058	56,765
– Gross Longs:	66,911	1,169,527	159,344
– Gross Shorts:	443,734	849,469	102,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	71.5	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-7.1	10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates investing Opinions

02 Oct

COT Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Soybean Meal, Gold & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday September 27th.

This week’s extreme COT data feels generally representative of where the market environment is at the current moment. Our COT data showed that there were just four markets with extreme bullish positioning (strength scores over 80 percent) in the over 50+ markets we watch each week and calculate strength scores for.

On the other hand, there were eighteen markets with extreme bearish positioning or strength scores under 20 percent.

For the bullish extreme markets, one was Bitcoin, one was a soft commodity, one was a stock market and one was a currency.

In the bearish extremes, five were in the metals category, two were in energy, two were in stocks, three were in currencies, one was in the soft commodities and five were in bonds markets.

Extreme Positioning Notes:

The weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled 1,024 net contracts this week which was a gain by 447 contracts from last week.

Bitcoin is an interesting case as the speculator position remains very small compared to most other markets. The overall open interest levels (contracts open in the market) are also small but have been gaining steadily over the past few years since the introduction of Bitcoin futures. The speculative position in this market signals that there are buyers currently betting on a rebound of the Bitcoin price.

Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal comes in second place this week in the COT Extreme positions after leading last week. The Soybean Meal strength score is 91.5 percent of its 3-Year range currently.

The speculator net position fell by -11,395 contracts this week to a total of 115,075 net contracts. The futures price for Soybean Meal did not follow the extreme position higher this week and finished the week lower by over -4 percent.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator trader’s futures position comes in third in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator net position totaled 1,520 contracts this week with a rise of 6,161 contracts from last week. This is first time that the position has been positive in twelve weeks and this week’s extreme position shows that a bullish position has been a rare occurrence in this market over the past three years.

Brazilian Real

The Brazilian Real speculator’s futures position comes in fourth this week in the extreme standings. The BRL speculator level resides at a 84 percent score of its 3-year range. Speculator strength levels have come back strong after a sharp drop early in the COVID pandemic although the exchange rates have not recovered to the same levels. Currently, speculator positioning is once again high as speculator’s could be betting on the higher Brazilian interest rates (currently over 12 percent), higher commodity prices or possibly positioning for a new president and policies.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gold

The Gold speculator’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range as the speculator net position fell to a total of 52,081 net contracts this week, marking a multi-year low. The Gold price is down by approximately 20 percent since hitting a recent high in March.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator net position was a total of 226,080 contracts this week which was a decline by -13,798 contracts from last week. This week marks the 13th straight week that WTI contracts have been in a bearish extreme position.

Platinum

The Platinum speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Platinum speculator level resides at just a 9 percent score of its 3-year range. Platinum prices have retreated over the past year after racing to multi-year highs of over $1,345.00 in February of 2021. All the metals markets we cover have seen similar trajectories with cooling prices as metals have faced a difficult investing environment with a strong dollar and rising interest rates.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The MXN speculator level is at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator net position totaled -41,322 contracts this week and a sharp fall by -13,289 contracts from last week. The peso price has held up relatively well and been very stable against the US dollar in the past year despite its weak speculator sentiment. The peso exchange rate has fluctuated in a relatively tight band between 0.0450 and 0.0515 since recovering from its pandemic lows.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.