COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil led last week’s speculator changes

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The COT release was delayed due to a Federal Holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,981 contracts) with Heating Oil (6,578 contracts), Gasoline (5,069 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Natural Gas (-3,655 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) and Heating Oil (83.6 percent) lead the energy category and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (20.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (15.7 percent)
Heating Oil (83.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (73.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Brent Crude Oil & Heating Oil top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (24.3 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) came in as the only market with lower trend scores for last week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (26.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (2.1 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-3.4 percent)
Heating Oil (24.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (10.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (16.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 274,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	38.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	59.0	3.5
– Net Position:	274,790	-301,325	26,535
– Gross Longs:	368,585	551,749	77,784
– Gross Shorts:	93,795	853,074	51,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	82.9	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.7	9.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	44.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	30.9	3.7
– Net Position:	-22,201	18,085	4,116
– Gross Longs:	31,215	59,785	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	53,416	41,700	5,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	23.4	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-37.2	45.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -152,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	45.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	33.4	3.6
– Net Position:	-152,308	120,222	32,086
– Gross Longs:	133,199	448,264	67,376
– Gross Shorts:	285,507	328,042	35,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	68.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-0.3	2.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 48,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	45.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	48,753	-59,226	10,473
– Gross Longs:	83,270	111,348	22,245
– Gross Shorts:	34,517	170,574	11,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	74.5	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-11.8	50.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	41.5	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	60.7	9.1
– Net Position:	27,958	-51,059	23,101
– Gross Longs:	46,818	110,820	47,495
– Gross Shorts:	18,860	161,879	24,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-31.4	44.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	75.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-3,439	5,797	-2,358
– Gross Longs:	12,268	43,434	373
– Gross Shorts:	15,707	37,637	2,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	15.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-6.3	-54.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

14 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Speculators boosted their Sugar & Cocoa bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar & Cocoa led the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher last week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (21,089 contracts) with Cocoa (20,189 contracts), Cotton (4,325 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,871 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,726 contracts) and Soybeans (1,287 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-39,234 contracts) with Coffee (-6,866 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,037 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,688 contracts) and Wheat (-1,448 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores followed by Corn (68.6 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (3.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme levels at the moment (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (68.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (73.6 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.9 percent)
Coffee (3.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.4 percent)
Soybeans (40.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (94.0 percent)
Live Cattle (51.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (51.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.4 percent)
Cotton (26.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.7 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (1.8 percent)

Soybean Oil tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (21.5 percent) and Sugar (10.6 percent) are the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-63.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Wheat (-25.1 percent) followed by Cotton (-15.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.5 percent)
Sugar (10.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (-63.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-49.7 percent)
Soybeans (2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (27.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.0 percent)
Cotton (-15.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.3 percent)
Cocoa (21.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 301,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	61.4	12.1
– Net Position:	301,554	-254,182	-47,372
– Gross Longs:	437,467	657,281	132,893
– Gross Shorts:	135,913	911,463	180,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	35.7	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-3.5	11.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	52.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	68.3	6.0
– Net Position:	90,182	-122,561	32,379
– Gross Longs:	194,931	401,032	78,270
– Gross Shorts:	104,749	523,593	45,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	56.0	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-15.6	30.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	50.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	49.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-4,683	1,912	2,771
– Gross Longs:	42,534	109,195	10,530
– Gross Shorts:	47,217	107,283	7,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	100.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.1	62.1	11.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	51.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	61.6	11.7
– Net Position:	87,809	-60,966	-26,843
– Gross Longs:	152,137	315,696	44,579
– Gross Shorts:	64,328	376,662	71,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	67.9	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-3.3	5.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 99,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	43.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	68.2	5.7
– Net Position:	99,981	-112,802	12,821
– Gross Longs:	133,543	192,512	38,438
– Gross Shorts:	33,562	305,314	25,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	29.3	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-32.5	25.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	73.5	6.4
– Net Position:	121,234	-147,596	26,362
– Gross Longs:	138,146	153,972	52,532
– Gross Shorts:	16,912	301,568	26,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	6.2	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-4.8	15.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	31.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	51.0	11.5
– Net Position:	57,429	-57,915	486
– Gross Longs:	108,040	90,893	33,924
– Gross Shorts:	50,611	148,808	33,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	34.0	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.6	12.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	34.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.6	13.9
– Net Position:	40,862	-31,247	-9,615
– Gross Longs:	76,465	64,349	16,565
– Gross Shorts:	35,603	95,596	26,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	56.5	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.4	-8.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	48.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	57.7	5.5
– Net Position:	20,477	-21,461	984
– Gross Longs:	66,804	114,001	13,817
– Gross Shorts:	46,327	135,462	12,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	75.1	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	15.2	-6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.6	3.2
– Net Position:	11,948	-15,306	3,358
– Gross Longs:	92,594	130,491	12,348
– Gross Shorts:	80,646	145,797	8,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	72.3	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-20.8	-7.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	38.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	31.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-17,214	23,686	-6,472
– Gross Longs:	94,154	135,610	30,937
– Gross Shorts:	111,368	111,924	37,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.4	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	27.0	4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Nov

Mexican Peso & Euro Currency Speculators sharply boost their bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Peso & Euro bets

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets were the Mexican peso (31,471 contracts), the Euro (30,881 contracts) and the Japanese yen (24,998 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (9,037 contracts), the British pound sterling (2,969 contracts), the Australian dollar (914 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (506 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Swiss franc (-3,484 contracts) with Bitcoin (-475 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-310 contracts) and the Brazilian real (-22 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the strong gains in the Mexican peso positioning since the start of October. Peso speculative positions jumped by over +30,000 contracts for a second straight week this week and have now been higher by at least +10,000 contracts in each of the past three weeks. Overall, the peso position has gained for five consecutive weeks and by a total of +85,367 contracts over that five-week period.

The renewed speculator optimism has brought the peso positioning from out of the bearish level it was in for nineteen straight weeks (from June 14th to October 18th) into a new bullish standing and to most bullish level since March 8th. The peso’s futures price has also been on the rise with a gain by over 1.50 percent this week. Peso prices have now risen in five out of the past six weeks and have reached their best level since early June.

Another highlight of this week’s COT data is the Euro’s continued gains in speculator positions. The large speculator contracts rose strongly yet again this week as the Euro position has now climbed for a third straight week and for the eighth time in the past nine weeks. The nine-week speculator’s total increase now stands at a whopping +153,466 contracts. The Euro position was in bearish territory as recently as September 13th (total of -11,837 contracts) and now the total speculator position is at +105,790 contracts (a 72-week high). However, despite this strong speculator sentiment, the Euro exchange rate versus the US dollar continues to only trade around parity or the 1.000 level. The speculators are usually reliable trend-followers (buying when prices rises and selling when prices fall) and this divergence between the price and speculator contracts is growing quite large and could foretell a possible strong future movement in the Euro one way or the other.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	55,942	80	29,788	75	-33,331	23	3,543	55
EUR	671,729	65	105,790	67	-128,819	39	23,029	16
GBP	243,549	63	-44,836	31	65,377	78	-20,541	18
JPY	258,906	86	-77,620	21	95,774	82	-18,154	17
CHF	50,107	41	-14,784	19	27,731	88	-12,947	14
CAD	147,170	28	-17,649	21	19,275	85	-1,626	27
AUD	165,411	56	-50,532	38	62,726	66	-12,194	23
NZD	47,219	38	-3,847	61	6,881	45	-3,034	17
MXN	282,864	88	44,045	46	-50,512	52	6,467	70
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	58,289	51	29,157	79	-29,139	23	-18	65
Bitcoin	12,183	67	-452	69	-16	0	468	24

Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (79.0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (74.6 percent) lead the currency markets currently. Bitcoin (69.1 percent) and the EuroFX (67.5 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (19.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position under 20 percent. The Canadian Dollar (20.8 percent), the Japanese Yen (21.1 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (30.5 percent) come in as the next lowest scores.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (74.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (75.1 percent)
EuroFX (67.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (58.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (19.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (32.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.1 percent)
Bitcoin (69.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Peso & Euro top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (30.7 percent) and the EuroFX (22.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (8.6 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Swiss Franc (-20.4 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-17.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.3 percent)
EuroFX (22.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-36.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-9.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-3.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	10.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	69.9	5.2
– Net Position:	29,788	-33,331	3,543
– Gross Longs:	42,304	5,761	6,460
– Gross Shorts:	12,516	39,092	2,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	22.9	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-4.1	7.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	50.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	69.7	8.0
– Net Position:	105,790	-128,819	23,029
– Gross Longs:	239,770	339,364	77,062
– Gross Shorts:	133,980	468,183	54,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	39.5	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-21.7	6.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	75.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	48.4	16.4
– Net Position:	-44,836	65,377	-20,541
– Gross Longs:	34,979	183,210	19,464
– Gross Shorts:	79,815	117,833	40,005
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	78.5	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.5	-3.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -77,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	73.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	36.9	15.9
– Net Position:	-77,620	95,774	-18,154
– Gross Longs:	40,460	191,221	23,021
– Gross Shorts:	118,080	95,447	41,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	82.4	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-0.8	-3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	71.5	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	16.1	40.9
– Net Position:	-14,784	27,731	-12,947
– Gross Longs:	6,612	35,822	7,559
– Gross Shorts:	21,396	8,091	20,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	87.7	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	23.5	-22.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	50.5	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	37.4	22.3
– Net Position:	-17,649	19,275	-1,626
– Gross Longs:	38,522	74,352	31,212
– Gross Shorts:	56,171	55,077	32,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	84.8	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	15.3	2.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	67.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	29.6	16.6
– Net Position:	-50,532	62,726	-12,194
– Gross Longs:	34,148	111,638	15,301
– Gross Shorts:	84,680	48,912	27,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	65.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.9	-1.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,884 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	48.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	34.4	12.2
– Net Position:	-3,847	6,881	-3,034
– Gross Longs:	21,115	23,103	2,707
– Gross Shorts:	24,962	16,222	5,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	45.4	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	13.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	32.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	50.0	0.7
– Net Position:	44,045	-50,512	6,467
– Gross Longs:	182,316	90,811	8,464
– Gross Shorts:	138,271	141,323	1,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	51.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-31.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.7	22.9	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	72.9	10.7
– Net Position:	29,157	-29,139	-18
– Gross Longs:	38,325	13,328	6,246
– Gross Shorts:	9,168	42,467	6,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	22.9	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	4.8	-20.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.6	3.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.3	3.5	6.2
– Net Position:	-452	-16	468
– Gross Longs:	8,967	406	1,218
– Gross Shorts:	9,419	422	750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	63.8	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	38.7	5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Wheat lead weekly COT Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 1st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the COT data table or COT leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 94.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 119,508 net contracts this week and has been over the +100,000 net contract level in fifteen out of the past seventeen weeks.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the only other market above 80 percent in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 84.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -6,047 net contracts this week. This market usually has an overall bearish positioning for speculators and this week’s position is near the lowest levels of the past three years.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at 0.0 percent score or at the absolute bottom of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -15,766 net contracts this week and the overall position is in bearish territory for the twelfth time out of the past fourteen weeks. Wheat prices continue to be in an uptrend but the speculator sentiment has fallen sharply from earlier in the year.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as well. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at the 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -437,785 net contracts this week and hit the most bearish level on record this week as the US Federal Reserve continued to raise its benchmark interest rate.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Gold speculator level is at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 64,623 net contracts this week and has now been under +100,000 net contracts for eight straight weeks which has not happened since 2018.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -536,987 net contracts this week and joins all the other bond markets we cover that have negative or bearish net positioning at the moment.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the next market in the most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 7.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -83,431 net contracts this week.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

06 Nov

Copper Speculators trim their Bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Copper & Platinum lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were slightly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (9,435 contracts) with Platinum (4,606 contracts) and Silver (1,625 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-3,409 contracts) with Palladium (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in the Copper speculators positioning over the past few months. The large speculators raised their Copper bets for the second straight week this week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. Copper spec positions have been in an overall bearish standing since April (currently in a 28-week streak of bearish contracts) with the lowest level of -31,796 contracts coming in July. However, the bearish bets have been lightening up of late and this week’s total of -7,484 contracts marks the least bearish level of the past twenty-one weeks, dating back to June 7th.

Copper prices were sharply on the rise this week as well with gains for the week climbing by over 7.50 percent. Helping Copper prices go higher this week were the rumors that China will potentially ease their COVID-related restrictions as well as some supply issues out of South America.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,459,052	2	254,809	12	-275,761	90	20,952	35
Gold	467,276	10	64,623	4	-74,782	96	10,159	5
Silver	138,875	12	1,524	16	-10,363	85	8,839	13
Copper	179,801	18	-7,484	30	7,998	73	-514	22
Palladium	8,372	12	-1,867	13	2,221	87	-354	20
Platinum	56,534	16	15,987	31	-19,690	71	3,703	18
Natural Gas	986,116	7	-148,653	34	127,501	71	21,152	30
Brent	134,010	0	-21,908	74	17,423	22	4,485	70
Heating Oil	268,025	23	21,380	74	-41,295	27	19,915	67
Soybeans	584,073	2	86,522	40	-57,886	69	-28,636	23
Corn	1,472,517	29	340,788	74	-286,790	31	-53,998	12
Coffee	217,400	25	2,183	12	-4,162	93	1,979	27
Sugar	737,846	9	69,093	46	-90,576	56	21,483	34
Wheat	333,061	20	-15,766	0	22,493	92	-6,727	75

Strength Scores led by Copper & Platinum

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (30.6 percent) and Copper (30.4 percent) lead the metals category.

On the downside, Gold (4.2 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Palladium (12.8 percent) and Silver (15.8 percent). All three of these markets remain in a bearish extreme position with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (15.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.0 percent)
Copper (30.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.9 percent)
Platinum (30.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.4 percent)
Palladium (12.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.6 percent)

Strength Trends topped by Platinum

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (18.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (10.2 percent) and Silver (3.5 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-4.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Gold (-0.4 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.7 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (10.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (18.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.8 percent)
Palladium (-4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	26.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	42.9	6.1
– Net Position:	64,623	-74,782	10,159
– Gross Longs:	216,341	125,689	38,559
– Gross Shorts:	151,718	200,471	28,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	96.1	5.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.2	1.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	37.3	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	44.8	9.5
– Net Position:	1,524	-10,363	8,839
– Gross Longs:	51,286	51,802	22,076
– Gross Shorts:	49,762	62,165	13,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	85.4	13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-4.5	7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	42.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	38.0	8.1
– Net Position:	-7,484	7,998	-514
– Gross Longs:	50,738	76,394	14,103
– Gross Shorts:	58,222	68,396	14,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	73.2	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-11.8	14.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	31.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	66.7	6.1
– Net Position:	15,987	-19,690	3,703
– Gross Longs:	28,611	18,041	7,159
– Gross Shorts:	12,624	37,731	3,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	71.2	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-17.9	7.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	54.1	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	27.6	17.9
– Net Position:	-1,867	2,221	-354
– Gross Longs:	1,906	4,532	1,141
– Gross Shorts:	3,773	2,311	1,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	86.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	5.5	-10.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

06 Nov

COT Bonds Speculators drop their 2-Year Bond bets to record low level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Fed Funds, 2-Year & 5-Year

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower across the board this week as all eight of the bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week were the Fed Funds (-89,356 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-88,189 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-75,242 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-54,038 contracts), the 10-Year Bond (-50,568 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-37,144 contracts), the Long US Bond (-18,746 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-4,085 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the historic weakness of the 2-Year Bond speculators positioning. Large speculators dropped their bets this week for a second straight week and by the largest weekly amount since May with this week’s decline numbering -88,189 contracts. The sentiment drop has now brought the overall 2-Year Bond speculator standing to its lowest level on record at a total of -437,785 contracts, eclipsing the previous record low of -417,237 contracts registered on December 11th of 2018.

The bond markets overall were on the defensive this week as the US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the fourth straight meeting. The 2-Year Bond, being near the short end of the yield curve, is especially sensitive to the rate change. The 2-Year front month futures price decreased to the lowest level since 2007 this week while the yield for the 2-Year hit above 5 percent (yields rise as prices fall), the highest threshold since 2007 as well.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-01-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,921,865	0	-1,950,696	17	2,217,457	81	-266,761	46
FedFunds	1,364,703	32	-17,005	38	30,796	64	-13,791	25
2-Year	2,234,148	20	-437,785	0	464,387	100	-26,602	40
Long T-Bond	1,193,687	42	-95,305	54	64,906	34	30,399	77
10-Year	3,952,205	61	-298,316	27	343,554	63	-45,238	69
5-Year	4,140,760	59	-536,987	4	629,897	90	-92,910	56

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (53.6 percent) leads the bonds category this week. The Fed Funds (37.5 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores but is down from 48.6 percent from last week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the 5-Year Bond (4.3 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) and the Eurodollar (17.2 percent). All four of these markets currently are in bearish extreme positioning compared to the past three years of speculator positions with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (37.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (34.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (59.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Eurodollar (17.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.2 percent)

Eurodollar & US Treasury Bond show positive Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (5.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.2 percent), 10-Year Bond (-10.4 percent), the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.1 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (-6.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-5.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-10.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
Eurodollar (5.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,950,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -54,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,896,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	67.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	39.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,950,696	2,217,457	-266,761
– Gross Longs:	589,471	5,361,762	371,189
– Gross Shorts:	2,540,167	3,144,305	637,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.7	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.2	4.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -89,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	73.5	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	71.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-17,005	30,796	-13,791
– Gross Longs:	140,920	1,002,689	25,091
– Gross Shorts:	157,925	971,893	38,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	63.6	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.8	-17.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -437,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -88,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -349,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	61.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-437,785	464,387	-26,602
– Gross Longs:	164,982	1,831,669	169,031
– Gross Shorts:	602,767	1,367,282	195,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	4.9	30.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -536,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -75,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -461,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	86.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	70.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-536,987	629,897	-92,910
– Gross Longs:	213,179	3,559,701	313,942
– Gross Shorts:	750,166	2,929,804	406,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.1	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	-1.2	14.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -298,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -50,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	76.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	67.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-298,316	343,554	-45,238
– Gross Longs:	471,166	3,021,952	357,967
– Gross Shorts:	769,482	2,678,398	403,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	62.7	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	0.1	16.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -83,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	80.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.8	16.6
– Net Position:	-83,431	161,124	-77,693
– Gross Longs:	109,513	1,118,917	153,574
– Gross Shorts:	192,944	957,793	231,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.1	81.6	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.3	30.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	79.2	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	73.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-95,305	64,906	30,399
– Gross Longs:	67,408	945,230	170,536
– Gross Shorts:	162,713	880,324	140,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	33.8	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.0	7.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -388,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	82.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	59.4	7.8
– Net Position:	-388,166	335,892	52,274
– Gross Longs:	85,681	1,198,023	165,861
– Gross Shorts:	473,847	862,131	113,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	77.8	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	3.0	13.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

30 Oct

COT Forex Speculators boost Euro bullish bets to 68-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (34,868 contracts) with the Euro (26,759 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (5,561 contracts), the British pound sterling (3,406 contracts), the Brazilian real (2,681 contracts), the Canadian dollar (2,418 contracts) and Bitcoin (1 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Australian dollar (-16,087 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-8,282 contracts), the Swiss franc (-4,214 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency positioning this week is the further push higher for the Euro speculators. The large speculator position in Euro futures jumped again this week and is higher for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. This week’s rise by over +26,000 contracts follows a gain by over +10,000 contracts last week. The past eight-week gains for Euro speculator bets now stands at +122,585 contracts and the current bullish position (+74,909 contracts currently) is at the most bullish level in 68-weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

The strong bullishness in the Euro is despite the Euro price remaining at parity against the US Dollar (near 20-year lows). The European Central Bank raised their interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday to try and offset high inflation in the Eurozone and brought the interest rate differential with the US Dollar a little narrower. Going forward, this divergence in the speculator positioning and the weak Euro price brings up some interesting questions. Does the sharply improving speculator sentiment foreshadow an improvement in the Euro price or will it set up a short squeeze with prices going lower if the speculators throw in the towel and bail out of their bullish bets?

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,053	87	30,098	75	-34,360	21	4,262	63
EUR	666,719	62	74,909	58	-93,832	49	18,923	9
GBP	258,969	73	-47,805	28	66,560	79	-18,755	21
JPY	272,597	94	-102,618	6	118,082	93	-15,464	22
CHF	46,594	34	-11,300	28	23,161	80	-11,861	17
CAD	143,417	26	-18,155	19	18,053	84	102	30
AUD	166,961	58	-51,446	37	66,319	68	-14,873	16
NZD	50,620	45	-12,884	46	16,289	59	-3,405	12
MXN	248,910	72	12,574	33	-19,809	65	7,235	74
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,644	32	29,179	79	-31,590	20	2,411	93
Bitcoin	14,854	87	23	77	-380	0	357	21

Brazilian Real, Bitcoin and US Dollar Index lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Brazilian Real (79.1 percent), Bitcoin (77.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges. The EuroFX (58.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores and above the 50 percent level.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in an extreme bearish position below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.5 percent)
EuroFX (58.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (28.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (25.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.4 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Euro leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent), the Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent), Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (26.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-43.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-3.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.2	9.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.6	4.5
– Net Position:	30,098	-34,360	4,262
– Gross Longs:	44,998	5,587	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	14,900	39,947	2,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	21.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.4	17.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 74,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	66.1	8.5
– Net Position:	74,909	-93,832	18,923
– Gross Longs:	226,734	346,949	75,890
– Gross Shorts:	151,825	440,781	56,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	49.4	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.4	-6.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	73.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	47.3	15.4
– Net Position:	-47,805	66,560	-18,755
– Gross Longs:	43,511	189,146	21,012
– Gross Shorts:	91,316	122,586	39,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	79.3	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-14.1	0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	75.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	31.9	15.0
– Net Position:	-102,618	118,082	-15,464
– Gross Longs:	37,579	205,120	25,555
– Gross Shorts:	140,197	87,038	41,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	93.3	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	9.6	4.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	68.3	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	18.6	45.0
– Net Position:	-11,300	23,161	-11,861
– Gross Longs:	5,538	31,843	9,097
– Gross Shorts:	16,838	8,682	20,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	80.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	10.6	-9.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -18,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	51.6	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	39.1	21.6
– Net Position:	-18,155	18,053	102
– Gross Longs:	35,607	74,064	31,123
– Gross Shorts:	53,762	56,011	31,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	83.8	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.3	26.3	-1.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -51,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	69.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	29.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-51,446	66,319	-14,873
– Gross Longs:	32,159	115,337	15,022
– Gross Shorts:	83,605	49,018	29,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	68.4	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-0.5	-13.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	62.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	30.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-12,884	16,289	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	15,639	31,568	2,983
– Gross Shorts:	28,523	15,279	6,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	58.9	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	11.2	8.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	31.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.9	39.6	0.5
– Net Position:	12,574	-19,809	7,235
– Gross Longs:	161,558	78,742	8,379
– Gross Shorts:	148,984	98,551	1,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	7.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.2	13.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.9	16.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	88.5	3.1
– Net Position:	29,179	-31,590	2,411
– Gross Longs:	31,835	7,041	3,746
– Gross Shorts:	2,656	38,631	1,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	20.5	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	2.9	9.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	4.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.5	6.6	5.5
– Net Position:	23	-380	357
– Gross Longs:	11,084	601	1,176
– Gross Shorts:	11,061	981	819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	46.1	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-2.9	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Oct

COT Metals Speculators drop Silver bets into small bearish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Copper and Platinum lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (3,383 contracts) with Platinum (2,887 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,924 contracts) with Silver (-1,368 contracts) and Palladium (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the decline in the speculators positions for Silver. The large speculators dropped their Silver bets for the third straight week following gains in the previous four weeks. This has brought the overall net position back into a small bearish standing this week (-101 contracts) for the first time in the past five weeks. Previously, the Silver net positioning had spent five weeks from August 23rd to September 20th in bearish territory before seeing speculator positions improve and regain their bullishness on September 27th.

The Silver price, like the other precious metals, remains under pressure and saw a small decline this week. The futures price trades around the $19.15 level and has been in a range between $18 and $20 over the past three weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Platinum and Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Platinum (24.4 percent) and Copper (22.9 percent) lead the metals category.

On the downside, Gold (5.3 percent), Palladium (13.6 percent) and Silver (14.0 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and all are in extreme bearish positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (5.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.2 percent)
Silver (14.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (22.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (20.2 percent)
Platinum (24.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)

Platinum leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (17.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (5.0 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Palladium (-2.8 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.9 percent)
Silver (5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (17.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	27.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.6	6.0
– Net Position:	68,032	-80,213	12,181
– Gross Longs:	212,853	123,085	39,637
– Gross Shorts:	144,821	203,298	27,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	94.4	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	9.5	-3.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	38.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	44.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-101	-8,857	8,958
– Gross Longs:	51,163	52,952	22,331
– Gross Shorts:	51,264	61,809	13,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	86.9	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.0	8.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	35.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-16,919	15,907	1,012
– Gross Longs:	50,000	79,742	15,339
– Gross Shorts:	66,919	63,835	14,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	79.3	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-3.6	14.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	33.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.0	5.8
– Net Position:	11,381	-14,971	3,590
– Gross Longs:	28,471	18,686	6,825
– Gross Shorts:	17,090	33,657	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.1	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-16.3	-4.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	60.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	29.6	21.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	2,228	-483
– Gross Longs:	1,618	4,403	1,074
– Gross Shorts:	3,363	2,175	1,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	86.8	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	4.5	-18.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

30 Oct

Bonds Weekly Speculator Bets led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (180,417 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (65,690 contracts), the Fed Funds (42,830 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (25,832 contracts), the Long US Bond (9,780 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (3,496 contracts)also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-14,084 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-2,695 contracts) also realizing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,016,242	0	-1,896,658	18	2,000,719	77	-104,061	82
FedFunds	1,710,395	60	72,351	49	-64,838	52	-7,513	41
2-Year	2,133,135	15	-349,596	12	421,363	96	-71,767	20
Long T-Bond	1,223,914	48	-76,559	60	47,904	28	28,655	75
10-Year	3,929,010	60	-247,748	35	296,692	57	-48,944	68
5-Year	4,087,748	56	-461,745	16	546,157	80	-84,412	58

Strength Scores led by US Long Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) continues to lead the bonds category this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent), the 2-Year Bond (11.7 percent), 5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) and the Eurodollar (18.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (34.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Eurodollar (18.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)

Eurodollar leads the weekly Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (18.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (16.0 percent), the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent)and the US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (3.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
Eurodollar (18.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,896,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 180,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,077,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	65.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	40.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,896,658	2,000,719	-104,061
– Gross Longs:	638,484	5,275,368	577,900
– Gross Shorts:	2,535,142	3,274,649	681,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	76.9	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-21.8	54.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 42,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.8	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.6	2.1
– Net Position:	72,351	-64,838	-7,513
– Gross Longs:	273,129	1,177,282	27,698
– Gross Shorts:	200,778	1,242,120	35,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	52.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-3.8	18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -349,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	63.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-349,596	421,363	-71,767
– Gross Longs:	151,517	1,773,452	159,922
– Gross Shorts:	501,113	1,352,089	231,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	95.7	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-2.9	2.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -461,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-461,745	546,157	-84,412
– Gross Longs:	239,313	3,479,211	320,339
– Gross Shorts:	701,058	2,933,054	404,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.9	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-15.9	19.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -247,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-247,748	296,692	-48,944
– Gross Longs:	453,643	3,019,262	363,812
– Gross Shorts:	701,391	2,722,570	412,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	57.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-19.7	14.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	81.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	69.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-79,346	159,023	-79,677
– Gross Longs:	100,026	1,124,960	150,789
– Gross Shorts:	179,372	965,937	230,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.1	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	11.3	18.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	78.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	74.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-76,559	47,904	28,655
– Gross Longs:	84,406	954,865	171,735
– Gross Shorts:	160,965	906,961	143,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	27.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	0.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -351,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	60.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-351,022	307,021	44,001
– Gross Longs:	95,630	1,185,802	164,658
– Gross Shorts:	446,652	878,781	120,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	62.5	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Oct

Coffee Speculators drop their bullish bets for 4th week to 118-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Live Cattle, Corn & Soybean Meal lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (22,470 contracts) with Corn (17,365 contracts), Soybean Meal (17,014 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,918 contracts), Lean Hogs (13,290 contracts) and Soybeans (2,702 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-14,524 contracts) with Cocoa (-12,763 contracts), Wheat (-9,372 contracts), Coffee (-7,872 contracts) and Cotton (-7,787 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT softs data this week is the continued fall in Coffee speculator positioning. Coffee large speculator bets have decreased for four straight weeks and in seven out of the past eight weeks. The recent weakness has taken a total of -37,336 contracts off the Coffee speculator position in just the past eight weeks. The overall position now sits at a total of +11,351 contracts, marking the lowest weekly level since July 21st of 2020, a span of 118 weeks.

The Coffee price has dropped by approximately 23 percent over the past three weeks and with a decline of almost 10 percent this week alone. The narrative for the Coffee price decline is that price increases have curtailed demand while a potential increase in supply out of Brazil is coming. However, the Intercontinental Exchange that monitors warehouse stocks of Arabica coffee beans has showed that Coffee stocks are at the lowest levels of the past 20 years. The short-term volatility notwithstanding, the big-picture Coffee story is one of rising worldwide demand and revenue but with some measures showing Coffee supply being hampered (current ICE Coffee stocks) and with climate change also likely to play a role in shaping the future Coffee production story as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (72.2 percent) and Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (2.3 percent) and Cocoa (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme standings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.9 percent)
Sugar (58.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.7 percent)
Coffee (36.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (45.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (30.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (55.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (82.7 percent)
Live Cattle (59.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.3 percent)
Cotton (29.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.3 percent)
Cocoa (15.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.9 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil and Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (9.2 percent), Corn (4.5 percent) and Cocoa (4.3 percent) are the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-32.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Cotton (-17.0 percent) followed by Soybeans (-10.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (9.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.4 percent)
Coffee (-32.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.7 percent)
Soybeans (-10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-4.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-26.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.2 percent)
Cocoa (4.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.7 percent)
Wheat (-6.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 329,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	43.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	62.2	12.8
– Net Position:	329,784	-273,645	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	453,036	625,537	129,121
– Gross Shorts:	123,252	899,182	185,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	32.9	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-5.6	2.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	50.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	70.1	6.2
– Net Position:	111,888	-140,147	28,259
– Gross Longs:	199,761	367,374	72,823
– Gross Shorts:	87,873	507,521	44,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	43.3	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-12.0	21.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	50.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	57.3	3.8
– Net Position:	11,351	-13,326	1,975
– Gross Longs:	42,119	106,110	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	30,768	119,436	7,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	33.3	-1.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	54.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	59.8	11.3
– Net Position:	57,385	-35,301	-22,084
– Gross Longs:	126,693	354,542	51,670
– Gross Shorts:	69,308	389,843	73,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	75.9	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.1	14.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 93,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	43.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	67.9	5.7
– Net Position:	93,241	-106,036	12,795
– Gross Longs:	123,538	183,248	37,167
– Gross Shorts:	30,297	289,284	24,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	33.6	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.1	11.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 116,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	39.7	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	76.0	6.1
– Net Position:	116,146	-141,232	25,086
– Gross Longs:	130,508	153,931	48,845
– Gross Shorts:	14,362	295,163	23,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	9.5	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	7.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	32.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	53.9	11.7
– Net Position:	64,126	-61,708	-2,418
– Gross Longs:	105,722	90,481	30,509
– Gross Shorts:	41,596	152,189	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	28.8	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	1.8	12.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	33.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	14.3
– Net Position:	40,379	-30,337	-10,042
– Gross Longs:	79,180	65,528	18,149
– Gross Shorts:	38,801	95,865	28,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	57.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-0.1	-5.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	49.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	59.7	4.9
– Net Position:	24,776	-25,690	914
– Gross Longs:	71,296	121,240	13,075
– Gross Shorts:	46,520	146,930	12,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	72.3	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	19.5	-37.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	46.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	46.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,545	-456	2,001
– Gross Longs:	96,233	141,758	12,844
– Gross Shorts:	97,778	142,214	10,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	87.1	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.4	-19.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	41.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	35.5	11.1
– Net Position:	-12,913	19,896	-6,983
– Gross Longs:	86,299	134,862	29,102
– Gross Shorts:	99,212	114,966	36,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	88.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	9.8	-11.1

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COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

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