COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 66

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Forex Speculators boost Euro bullish bets to 68-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (34,868 contracts) with the Euro (26,759 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (5,561 contracts), the British pound sterling (3,406 contracts), the Brazilian real (2,681 contracts), the Canadian dollar (2,418 contracts) and Bitcoin (1 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Australian dollar (-16,087 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-8,282 contracts), the Swiss franc (-4,214 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency positioning this week is the further push higher for the Euro speculators. The large speculator position in Euro futures jumped again this week and is higher for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. This week’s rise by over +26,000 contracts follows a gain by over +10,000 contracts last week. The past eight-week gains for Euro speculator bets now stands at +122,585 contracts and the current bullish position (+74,909 contracts currently) is at the most bullish level in 68-weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

The strong bullishness in the Euro is despite the Euro price remaining at parity against the US Dollar (near 20-year lows). The European Central Bank raised their interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday to try and offset high inflation in the Eurozone and brought the interest rate differential with the US Dollar a little narrower. Going forward, this divergence in the speculator positioning and the weak Euro price brings up some interesting questions. Does the sharply improving speculator sentiment foreshadow an improvement in the Euro price or will it set up a short squeeze with prices going lower if the speculators throw in the towel and bail out of their bullish bets?

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,053	87	30,098	75	-34,360	21	4,262	63
EUR	666,719	62	74,909	58	-93,832	49	18,923	9
GBP	258,969	73	-47,805	28	66,560	79	-18,755	21
JPY	272,597	94	-102,618	6	118,082	93	-15,464	22
CHF	46,594	34	-11,300	28	23,161	80	-11,861	17
CAD	143,417	26	-18,155	19	18,053	84	102	30
AUD	166,961	58	-51,446	37	66,319	68	-14,873	16
NZD	50,620	45	-12,884	46	16,289	59	-3,405	12
MXN	248,910	72	12,574	33	-19,809	65	7,235	74
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,644	32	29,179	79	-31,590	20	2,411	93
Bitcoin	14,854	87	23	77	-380	0	357	21

Brazilian Real, Bitcoin and US Dollar Index lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Brazilian Real (79.1 percent), Bitcoin (77.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges. The EuroFX (58.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores and above the 50 percent level.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in an extreme bearish position below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.5 percent)
EuroFX (58.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (28.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (25.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.4 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Euro leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent), the Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent), Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (26.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-43.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-3.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.2	9.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.6	4.5
– Net Position:	30,098	-34,360	4,262
– Gross Longs:	44,998	5,587	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	14,900	39,947	2,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	21.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.4	17.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 74,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	66.1	8.5
– Net Position:	74,909	-93,832	18,923
– Gross Longs:	226,734	346,949	75,890
– Gross Shorts:	151,825	440,781	56,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	49.4	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.4	-6.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	73.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	47.3	15.4
– Net Position:	-47,805	66,560	-18,755
– Gross Longs:	43,511	189,146	21,012
– Gross Shorts:	91,316	122,586	39,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	79.3	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-14.1	0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	75.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	31.9	15.0
– Net Position:	-102,618	118,082	-15,464
– Gross Longs:	37,579	205,120	25,555
– Gross Shorts:	140,197	87,038	41,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	93.3	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	9.6	4.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	68.3	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	18.6	45.0
– Net Position:	-11,300	23,161	-11,861
– Gross Longs:	5,538	31,843	9,097
– Gross Shorts:	16,838	8,682	20,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	80.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	10.6	-9.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -18,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	51.6	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	39.1	21.6
– Net Position:	-18,155	18,053	102
– Gross Longs:	35,607	74,064	31,123
– Gross Shorts:	53,762	56,011	31,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	83.8	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.3	26.3	-1.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -51,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	69.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	29.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-51,446	66,319	-14,873
– Gross Longs:	32,159	115,337	15,022
– Gross Shorts:	83,605	49,018	29,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	68.4	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-0.5	-13.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	62.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	30.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-12,884	16,289	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	15,639	31,568	2,983
– Gross Shorts:	28,523	15,279	6,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	58.9	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	11.2	8.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	31.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.9	39.6	0.5
– Net Position:	12,574	-19,809	7,235
– Gross Longs:	161,558	78,742	8,379
– Gross Shorts:	148,984	98,551	1,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	7.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.2	13.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.9	16.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	88.5	3.1
– Net Position:	29,179	-31,590	2,411
– Gross Longs:	31,835	7,041	3,746
– Gross Shorts:	2,656	38,631	1,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	20.5	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	2.9	9.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	4.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.5	6.6	5.5
– Net Position:	23	-380	357
– Gross Longs:	11,084	601	1,176
– Gross Shorts:	11,061	981	819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	46.1	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-2.9	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Oct

COT Metals Speculators drop Silver bets into small bearish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Copper and Platinum lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (3,383 contracts) with Platinum (2,887 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,924 contracts) with Silver (-1,368 contracts) and Palladium (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the decline in the speculators positions for Silver. The large speculators dropped their Silver bets for the third straight week following gains in the previous four weeks. This has brought the overall net position back into a small bearish standing this week (-101 contracts) for the first time in the past five weeks. Previously, the Silver net positioning had spent five weeks from August 23rd to September 20th in bearish territory before seeing speculator positions improve and regain their bullishness on September 27th.

The Silver price, like the other precious metals, remains under pressure and saw a small decline this week. The futures price trades around the $19.15 level and has been in a range between $18 and $20 over the past three weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Platinum and Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Platinum (24.4 percent) and Copper (22.9 percent) lead the metals category.

On the downside, Gold (5.3 percent), Palladium (13.6 percent) and Silver (14.0 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and all are in extreme bearish positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (5.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.2 percent)
Silver (14.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (22.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (20.2 percent)
Platinum (24.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)

Platinum leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (17.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (5.0 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Palladium (-2.8 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.9 percent)
Silver (5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (17.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	27.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.6	6.0
– Net Position:	68,032	-80,213	12,181
– Gross Longs:	212,853	123,085	39,637
– Gross Shorts:	144,821	203,298	27,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	94.4	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	9.5	-3.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	38.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	44.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-101	-8,857	8,958
– Gross Longs:	51,163	52,952	22,331
– Gross Shorts:	51,264	61,809	13,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	86.9	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.0	8.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	35.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-16,919	15,907	1,012
– Gross Longs:	50,000	79,742	15,339
– Gross Shorts:	66,919	63,835	14,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	79.3	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-3.6	14.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	33.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.0	5.8
– Net Position:	11,381	-14,971	3,590
– Gross Longs:	28,471	18,686	6,825
– Gross Shorts:	17,090	33,657	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.1	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-16.3	-4.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	60.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	29.6	21.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	2,228	-483
– Gross Longs:	1,618	4,403	1,074
– Gross Shorts:	3,363	2,175	1,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	86.8	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	4.5	-18.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

30 Oct

Bonds Weekly Speculator Bets led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (180,417 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (65,690 contracts), the Fed Funds (42,830 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (25,832 contracts), the Long US Bond (9,780 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (3,496 contracts)also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-14,084 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-2,695 contracts) also realizing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,016,242	0	-1,896,658	18	2,000,719	77	-104,061	82
FedFunds	1,710,395	60	72,351	49	-64,838	52	-7,513	41
2-Year	2,133,135	15	-349,596	12	421,363	96	-71,767	20
Long T-Bond	1,223,914	48	-76,559	60	47,904	28	28,655	75
10-Year	3,929,010	60	-247,748	35	296,692	57	-48,944	68
5-Year	4,087,748	56	-461,745	16	546,157	80	-84,412	58

Strength Scores led by US Long Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) continues to lead the bonds category this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent), the 2-Year Bond (11.7 percent), 5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) and the Eurodollar (18.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (34.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Eurodollar (18.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)

Eurodollar leads the weekly Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (18.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (16.0 percent), the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent)and the US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (3.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
Eurodollar (18.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,896,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 180,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,077,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	65.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	40.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,896,658	2,000,719	-104,061
– Gross Longs:	638,484	5,275,368	577,900
– Gross Shorts:	2,535,142	3,274,649	681,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	76.9	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-21.8	54.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 42,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.8	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.6	2.1
– Net Position:	72,351	-64,838	-7,513
– Gross Longs:	273,129	1,177,282	27,698
– Gross Shorts:	200,778	1,242,120	35,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	52.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-3.8	18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -349,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	63.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-349,596	421,363	-71,767
– Gross Longs:	151,517	1,773,452	159,922
– Gross Shorts:	501,113	1,352,089	231,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	95.7	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-2.9	2.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -461,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-461,745	546,157	-84,412
– Gross Longs:	239,313	3,479,211	320,339
– Gross Shorts:	701,058	2,933,054	404,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.9	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-15.9	19.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -247,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-247,748	296,692	-48,944
– Gross Longs:	453,643	3,019,262	363,812
– Gross Shorts:	701,391	2,722,570	412,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	57.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-19.7	14.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	81.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	69.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-79,346	159,023	-79,677
– Gross Longs:	100,026	1,124,960	150,789
– Gross Shorts:	179,372	965,937	230,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.1	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	11.3	18.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	78.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	74.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-76,559	47,904	28,655
– Gross Longs:	84,406	954,865	171,735
– Gross Shorts:	160,965	906,961	143,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	27.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	0.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -351,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	60.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-351,022	307,021	44,001
– Gross Longs:	95,630	1,185,802	164,658
– Gross Shorts:	446,652	878,781	120,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	62.5	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Oct

Coffee Speculators drop their bullish bets for 4th week to 118-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Live Cattle, Corn & Soybean Meal lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (22,470 contracts) with Corn (17,365 contracts), Soybean Meal (17,014 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,918 contracts), Lean Hogs (13,290 contracts) and Soybeans (2,702 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-14,524 contracts) with Cocoa (-12,763 contracts), Wheat (-9,372 contracts), Coffee (-7,872 contracts) and Cotton (-7,787 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT softs data this week is the continued fall in Coffee speculator positioning. Coffee large speculator bets have decreased for four straight weeks and in seven out of the past eight weeks. The recent weakness has taken a total of -37,336 contracts off the Coffee speculator position in just the past eight weeks. The overall position now sits at a total of +11,351 contracts, marking the lowest weekly level since July 21st of 2020, a span of 118 weeks.

The Coffee price has dropped by approximately 23 percent over the past three weeks and with a decline of almost 10 percent this week alone. The narrative for the Coffee price decline is that price increases have curtailed demand while a potential increase in supply out of Brazil is coming. However, the Intercontinental Exchange that monitors warehouse stocks of Arabica coffee beans has showed that Coffee stocks are at the lowest levels of the past 20 years. The short-term volatility notwithstanding, the big-picture Coffee story is one of rising worldwide demand and revenue but with some measures showing Coffee supply being hampered (current ICE Coffee stocks) and with climate change also likely to play a role in shaping the future Coffee production story as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (72.2 percent) and Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (2.3 percent) and Cocoa (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme standings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.9 percent)
Sugar (58.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.7 percent)
Coffee (36.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (45.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (30.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (55.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (82.7 percent)
Live Cattle (59.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.3 percent)
Cotton (29.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.3 percent)
Cocoa (15.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.9 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil and Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (9.2 percent), Corn (4.5 percent) and Cocoa (4.3 percent) are the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-32.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Cotton (-17.0 percent) followed by Soybeans (-10.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (9.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.4 percent)
Coffee (-32.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.7 percent)
Soybeans (-10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-4.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-26.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.2 percent)
Cocoa (4.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.7 percent)
Wheat (-6.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 329,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	43.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	62.2	12.8
– Net Position:	329,784	-273,645	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	453,036	625,537	129,121
– Gross Shorts:	123,252	899,182	185,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	32.9	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-5.6	2.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	50.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	70.1	6.2
– Net Position:	111,888	-140,147	28,259
– Gross Longs:	199,761	367,374	72,823
– Gross Shorts:	87,873	507,521	44,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	43.3	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-12.0	21.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	50.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	57.3	3.8
– Net Position:	11,351	-13,326	1,975
– Gross Longs:	42,119	106,110	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	30,768	119,436	7,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	33.3	-1.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	54.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	59.8	11.3
– Net Position:	57,385	-35,301	-22,084
– Gross Longs:	126,693	354,542	51,670
– Gross Shorts:	69,308	389,843	73,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	75.9	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.1	14.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 93,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	43.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	67.9	5.7
– Net Position:	93,241	-106,036	12,795
– Gross Longs:	123,538	183,248	37,167
– Gross Shorts:	30,297	289,284	24,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	33.6	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.1	11.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 116,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	39.7	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	76.0	6.1
– Net Position:	116,146	-141,232	25,086
– Gross Longs:	130,508	153,931	48,845
– Gross Shorts:	14,362	295,163	23,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	9.5	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	7.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	32.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	53.9	11.7
– Net Position:	64,126	-61,708	-2,418
– Gross Longs:	105,722	90,481	30,509
– Gross Shorts:	41,596	152,189	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	28.8	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	1.8	12.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	33.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	14.3
– Net Position:	40,379	-30,337	-10,042
– Gross Longs:	79,180	65,528	18,149
– Gross Shorts:	38,801	95,865	28,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	57.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-0.1	-5.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	49.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	59.7	4.9
– Net Position:	24,776	-25,690	914
– Gross Longs:	71,296	121,240	13,075
– Gross Shorts:	46,520	146,930	12,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	72.3	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	19.5	-37.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	46.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	46.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,545	-456	2,001
– Gross Longs:	96,233	141,758	12,844
– Gross Shorts:	97,778	142,214	10,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	87.1	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.4	-19.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	41.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	35.5	11.1
– Net Position:	-12,913	19,896	-6,983
– Gross Longs:	86,299	134,862	29,102
– Gross Shorts:	99,212	114,966	36,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	88.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	9.8	-11.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

23 Oct

Large Currency Speculators boost Euro bullish bets to 19-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Euro & Mexican Peso lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets were the Mexican peso (11,360 contracts) and the Euro (10,651 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,099 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts) and the Brazilian real (423 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-16,943 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-12,041 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-4,088 contracts), the Swiss franc (-1,196 contracts), Bitcoin (-835 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-96 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the Euro. The large speculator positioning this week saw Euro bets rise by over +10,000 contracts and go higher for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Euro bets have gained by over +95,000 net contracts in just the past seven weeks, going from -47,676 contracts on August 30th to over +48,000 contracts this week. This bullishness has brought the overall net speculator standing to its highest level in nineteen weeks, dating back to June 7th.

Euro speculators have been raising their bets into a market that is close to 20-year lows in the EURUSD exchange rate. Speculators are clearly betting that the exchange rate is close to a low point and looking to profit on a turnaround. The European Central Bank is expected to raise their interest rates this week by potentially 75-basis points and with the possibility of further rate rises before the end of the year.

The EURUSD exchange rate closed the week over 1.25 percent higher and ended the week around the 0.9855 exchange level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-18-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	55,234	78	32,690	79	-37,014	17	4,324	64
EUR	640,469	50	48,150	50	-70,577	56	22,427	15
GBP	258,826	73	-51,211	25	76,309	86	-25,098	9
JPY	264,265	89	-94,336	11	110,841	90	-16,505	20
CHF	44,911	31	-7,086	39	19,098	74	-12,012	17
CAD	146,425	28	-20,573	16	25,103	90	-4,530	21
AUD	150,496	45	-35,359	52	48,971	55	-13,612	19
NZD	50,448	44	-18,445	38	22,359	67	-3,914	7
MXN	215,836	57	-22,294	18	16,273	80	6,021	69
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,954	29	26,498	76	-28,581	23	2,083	89
Bitcoin	14,228	82	22	77	-665	0	643	28

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index, Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (79.5 percent), Bitcoin and the Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10.8 percent), Canadian Dollar (16.3 percent) and the Mexican Peso (17.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.6 percent)
EuroFX (49.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (46.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (25.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (55.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.9 percent)

EuroFX leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (19.6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (3.1 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-43.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-27.3 percent), Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-22.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-0.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-43.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-56.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-27.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-27.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (16.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -96 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.4	3.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	70.6	4.8
– Net Position:	32,690	-37,014	4,324
– Gross Longs:	44,956	1,955	6,954
– Gross Shorts:	12,266	38,969	2,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	17.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	2.3	21.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.2	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	65.2	8.4
– Net Position:	48,150	-70,577	22,427
– Gross Longs:	202,703	347,078	76,183
– Gross Shorts:	154,553	417,655	53,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	56.0	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.6	9.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	75.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	45.6	16.9
– Net Position:	-51,211	76,309	-25,098
– Gross Longs:	40,328	194,385	18,668
– Gross Shorts:	91,539	118,076	43,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	85.9	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	4.3	-10.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -94,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	77.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	35.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-94,336	110,841	-16,505
– Gross Longs:	30,583	203,508	26,491
– Gross Shorts:	124,919	92,667	42,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	89.7	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	16.2	6.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	63.9	20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	21.4	47.1
– Net Position:	-7,086	19,098	-12,012
– Gross Longs:	7,052	28,702	9,122
– Gross Shorts:	14,138	9,604	21,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	73.9	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	3.6	2.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	53.9	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	36.7	23.2
– Net Position:	-20,573	25,103	-4,530
– Gross Longs:	35,384	78,895	29,508
– Gross Shorts:	55,957	53,792	34,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	89.6	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	36.7	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	63.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	30.9	20.5
– Net Position:	-35,359	48,971	-13,612
– Gross Longs:	33,046	95,474	17,233
– Gross Shorts:	68,405	46,503	30,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	55.4	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-11.1	-15.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	73.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	29.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-18,445	22,359	-3,914
– Gross Longs:	10,328	37,048	2,787
– Gross Shorts:	28,773	14,689	6,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	67.0	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	25.3	-1.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.8	34.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	26.6	1.0
– Net Position:	-22,294	16,273	6,021
– Gross Longs:	133,432	73,758	8,139
– Gross Shorts:	155,726	57,485	2,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	79.6	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.8	7.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	19.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	87.7	3.1
– Net Position:	26,498	-28,581	2,083
– Gross Longs:	30,326	8,229	3,398
– Gross Shorts:	3,828	36,810	1,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	23.4	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	3.8	5.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.3	0.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.1	5.5	5.3
– Net Position:	22	-665	643
– Gross Longs:	10,710	120	1,404
– Gross Shorts:	10,688	785	761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	32.2	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	30.9	15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Oct

Speculator Extremes: Bloomberg Commodity Index, MSCI EAFE lead Bullish & Bearish COT Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table.

* We use Tuesday to Tuesday weekly price closes to match up with the COT data (data through Tuesdays) and this accounts for large gaps in the price chart candles.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 88.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position is in bearish territory but has has been steadily improving with speculators at the most bullish point in over a year.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The strength level is now at a 84.97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The Nikkei 225 speculator position is in positive or bullish territory for a fourth straight week this week. The net position has been mostly bearish over the past three years so a positive standing currently puts the strength scores in extreme bullish levels.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Meal strength score resides at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The Soybean Meal speculator position has been very bullish since the middle of 2021 with speculator net positions reaching over +100,000 net contracts at their peaks.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week but is just a touch under the 80 percent threshold. The US Dollar Index strength level is at a 79.45 percent score of its 3-year range.

The Dollar has been very strong for a long time now and is near 20-year highs against the Euro, Yen and the British Pound Sterling. Speculator strength scores for the US Dollar Index have been near or above extreme bullish levels for almost a year.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The EAFE strength level is at a 6.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Gold strength score is at a 8.2 percent score of its 3-year range as the metals markets have been under pressure in the rising interest rate environment.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Last this week is the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position which comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year strength level resides at a 8.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

23 Oct

COT Metals Speculators push Platinum bullish bets to 28-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Platinum tops Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the precious metals markets was just Platinum (2,566 contracts) showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,464 contracts) with Silver (-6,122 contracts), Copper (-4,403 contracts) and Palladium (-455 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the speculator positions in Platinum. The large speculative positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past six weeks, speculative bets have improved by a total of +15,245 contracts. This recent bullishness has brought the overall net standing to its highest level in the past twenty-eight weeks, dating back to April 5th of this year.

Platinum prices have been on the rise as well with a monthly gain above 8 percent so far in October. Platinum could also benefit going forward from an interesting tax loophole in India that has pushed Platinum imports to a record high to approximately 27 tonnes this September compared to a little over 1 tonnes last September, according to Reuters. Indian gold refiners are importing Platinum mixed with Gold to offset new higher taxes on Gold. A Gold/Platinum mix allows importers to classify the import as a Platinum alloy and pay a lower tax rate on it.

Platinum futures closed this week over 4 percent higher near the $933 level but below the $940 level which has acted as a resistance barrier over the past five weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-18-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,454,431	0	251,545	11	-273,757	90	22,212	37
Gold	434,701	1	76,956	8	-90,030	91	13,074	12
Silver	136,055	9	1,267	15	-9,085	87	7,818	8
Copper	178,730	17	-20,302	20	19,696	82	606	29
Palladium	6,805	4	-1,209	16	1,444	82	-235	30
Platinum	53,728	11	8,494	21	-11,632	81	3,138	10
Natural Gas	963,792	3	-154,734	32	126,760	71	27,974	46
Brent	163,296	11	-41,847	41	38,681	58	3,166	52
Heating Oil	283,702	29	24,555	79	-44,031	24	19,476	66
Soybeans	714,532	30	54,683	30	-30,595	77	-24,088	30
Corn	1,419,087	22	312,419	70	-249,255	36	-63,164	7
Coffee	196,729	9	19,223	53	-21,605	52	2,382	24
Sugar	711,664	4	126,412	63	-164,671	37	38,259	55
Wheat	309,429	10	-3,541	14	10,534	75	-6,993	74

Strength Scores led by Platinum and Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (20.5 percent) and Copper (20.2 percent) lead the metals this week just above the bearish extreme level.

On the downside, Gold (8.2 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Silver (15.5 percent) and Palladium (16.4 percent). All three markets in extreme bearish levels below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.0 percent)
Silver (15.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (22.3 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.7 percent)
Platinum (20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.1 percent)
Palladium (16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.1 percent)

Platinum leads the Strength Trend Scores

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (20.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (15.5 percent), Copper (2.9 percent) and Palladium (2.3 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-8.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently as the only negative mover in the latest data.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-8.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (-7.7 percent)
Silver (15.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.3 percent)
Copper (2.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.9 percent)
Platinum (20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (15.2 percent)
Palladium (2.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	26.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	47.2	6.0
– Net Position:	76,956	-90,030	13,074
– Gross Longs:	210,890	115,073	39,286
– Gross Shorts:	133,934	205,103	26,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.4	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	7.4	7.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	37.5	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	44.1	10.4
– Net Position:	1,267	-9,085	7,818
– Gross Longs:	51,541	50,956	22,014
– Gross Shorts:	50,274	60,041	14,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	86.6	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-13.4	0.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	46.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	35.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-20,302	19,696	606
– Gross Longs:	49,335	82,890	15,118
– Gross Shorts:	69,637	63,194	14,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	82.3	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-5.5	19.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	36.1	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	57.8	6.1
– Net Position:	8,494	-11,632	3,138
– Gross Longs:	26,385	19,406	6,436
– Gross Shorts:	17,891	31,038	3,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.5	81.4	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-18.6	-6.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	58.3	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	37.1	17.8
– Net Position:	-1,209	1,444	-235
– Gross Longs:	1,793	3,968	975
– Gross Shorts:	3,002	2,524	1,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	82.3	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-4.0	16.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

23 Oct

Sugar and Soybean Oil bets top Speculator Soft Commodity Markets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar and Soybean Oil top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (25,297 contracts) with Soybean Oil (18,444 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,948 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,531 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,991 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Coffee (-21,311 contracts) with Corn (-12,702 contracts), Cotton (-3,338 contracts), Cocoa (-2,468 contracts), Wheat (-1,551 contracts) and Soybeans (-1,086 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week was the speculator positions in Sugar. The large speculative position for Sugar has risen sharply for two straight weeks and has advanced in seven out of the past ten weeks. This trader bullishness has brought a gain of +100,347 contracts over just the last ten-week period and pushed overall bullish standing back above the +100,000 net contract level for the first time since July.

Sugar prices and sentiment have been boosted higher by lower production numbers and higher prices out of Europe as well as Brazil this year. Prices closed this week around the 18.40 level and have been in a range between 17 and 20.70 since July of 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-18-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,454,431	0	251,545	11	-273,757	90	22,212	37
Gold	434,701	1	76,956	8	-90,030	91	13,074	12
Silver	136,055	9	1,267	15	-9,085	87	7,818	8
Copper	178,730	17	-20,302	20	19,696	82	606	29
Palladium	6,805	4	-1,209	16	1,444	82	-235	30
Platinum	53,728	11	8,494	21	-11,632	81	3,138	10
Natural Gas	963,792	3	-154,734	32	126,760	71	27,974	46
Brent	163,296	11	-41,847	41	38,681	58	3,166	52
Heating Oil	283,702	29	24,555	79	-44,031	24	19,476	66
Soybeans	714,532	30	54,683	30	-30,595	77	-24,088	30
Corn	1,419,087	22	312,419	70	-249,255	36	-63,164	7
Coffee	196,729	9	19,223	53	-21,605	52	2,382	24
Sugar	711,664	4	126,412	63	-164,671	37	38,259	55
Wheat	309,429	10	-3,541	14	10,534	75	-6,993	74

Soybean Meal leads Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (82.7 percent) and the XXXX lead the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (69.9 percent) and Sugar (62.5 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (14.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (71.6 percent)
Sugar (62.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.3 percent)
Coffee (52.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.1 percent)
Soybeans (30.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (55.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (82.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (81.3 percent)
Live Cattle (31.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (29.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.6 percent)
Cotton (35.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.7 percent)
Cocoa (27.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (30.4 percent)
Wheat (14.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil and Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (14.1 percent), Wheat (8.1 percent), Cocoa (6.7 percent) and Corn (3.3 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-26.5 percent) and Coffee (-25.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cotton (-13.2 percent) followed by Lean Hogs (-10.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (14.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.9 percent)
Coffee (-25.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-10.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-26.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-25.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-10.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.2 percent)
Cotton (-13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.6 percent)
Cocoa (6.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.3 percent)
Wheat (8.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 312,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	44.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	62.3	13.3
– Net Position:	312,419	-249,255	-63,164
– Gross Longs:	437,906	635,253	126,283
– Gross Shorts:	125,487	884,508	189,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	36.4	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.6	-4.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126,412 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	48.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	71.2	6.4
– Net Position:	126,412	-164,671	38,259
– Gross Longs:	205,568	342,150	83,657
– Gross Shorts:	79,156	506,821	45,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.3	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-19.6	42.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	51.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	62.4	3.4
– Net Position:	19,223	-21,605	2,382
– Gross Longs:	41,151	101,222	9,017
– Gross Shorts:	21,928	122,827	6,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	52.4	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	26.5	2.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	54.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	58.8	10.5
– Net Position:	54,683	-30,595	-24,088
– Gross Longs:	132,144	389,695	50,829
– Gross Shorts:	77,461	420,290	74,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	77.3	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	6.3	10.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	45.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	67.6	5.3
– Net Position:	76,323	-91,542	15,219
– Gross Longs:	105,679	183,264	36,918
– Gross Shorts:	29,356	274,806	21,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	42.7	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-22.8	33.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 99,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	41.0	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	73.8	6.9
– Net Position:	99,132	-122,110	22,978
– Gross Longs:	119,484	152,664	48,567
– Gross Shorts:	20,352	274,774	25,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	19.5	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	2.4	17.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	36.3	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.4	12.5
– Net Position:	41,656	-42,115	459
– Gross Longs:	85,057	95,288	33,243
– Gross Shorts:	43,401	137,403	32,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	55.6	98.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.4	13.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	36.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	47.2	13.7
– Net Position:	27,089	-19,993	-7,096
– Gross Longs:	70,919	69,501	18,957
– Gross Shorts:	43,830	89,494	26,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	69.8	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.1	-0.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	50.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	64.5	4.7
– Net Position:	32,563	-34,238	1,675
– Gross Longs:	71,299	119,480	12,911
– Gross Shorts:	38,736	153,718	11,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	66.6	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	15.9	-35.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	46.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	50.3	3.6
– Net Position:	11,218	-12,445	1,227
– Gross Longs:	95,953	140,015	12,138
– Gross Shorts:	84,735	152,460	10,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	75.2	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-5.2	-15.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	40.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	37.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,541	10,534	-6,993
– Gross Longs:	86,038	125,771	26,783
– Gross Shorts:	89,579	115,237	33,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	74.6	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-4.5	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Oct

Eurodollar, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds lead Weekly COT Speculator Changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Eurodollar, Fed Funds & 10-Year lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were evenly mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (66,141 contracts) with the Fed Funds (28,633 contracts), the 10-Year Bond (26,725 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (18,174 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Ultra US Bond (-4,286 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (-3,657 contracts), the Long US Bond (-2,547 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-880 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-18-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,072,670	0	-2,077,075	15	2,305,875	82	-228,800	54
FedFunds	1,649,078	53	29,521	43	-20,827	57	-8,694	37
2-Year	2,046,001	12	-335,512	15	404,181	92	-68,669	21
Long T-Bond	1,219,645	47	-86,339	56	53,148	30	33,191	79
10-Year	3,843,164	54	-313,438	25	371,577	66	-58,139	66
5-Year	4,000,027	51	-487,577	12	586,839	85	-99,262	54

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) leads the bonds category for the week and is the only market above 50 percent or above the 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent), 5-Year Bond (11.8 percent), 2-Year Bond (14.5 percent) and the Eurodollar (14.9 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are all in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (43.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (24.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (40.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.3 percent)
Eurodollar (14.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.7 percent)

Eurodollar & 10-Year Bond top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (13.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (9.6 percent), the 5-Year Bond (2.8 percent), Fed Funds (1.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 2-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (1.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-10.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Eurodollar (13.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,077,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 66,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,143,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	68.5	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	40.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-2,077,075	2,305,875	-228,800
– Gross Longs:	657,218	5,533,303	387,561
– Gross Shorts:	2,734,293	3,227,428	616,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	82.3	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-15.0	29.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	71.3	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	72.5	2.3
– Net Position:	29,521	-20,827	-8,694
– Gross Longs:	220,365	1,175,230	29,854
– Gross Shorts:	190,844	1,196,057	38,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	57.4	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.4	2.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -335,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	63.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-335,512	404,181	-68,669
– Gross Longs:	143,755	1,709,706	160,055
– Gross Shorts:	479,267	1,305,525	228,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	92.3	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.7	7.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -487,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -483,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	85.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	71.2	10.3
– Net Position:	-487,577	586,839	-99,262
– Gross Longs:	219,782	3,434,617	311,325
– Gross Shorts:	707,359	2,847,778	410,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	84.8	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-8.8	14.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -313,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -340,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.3	10.6
– Net Position:	-313,438	371,577	-58,139
– Gross Longs:	405,265	2,997,874	347,408
– Gross Shorts:	718,703	2,626,297	405,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	66.0	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-14.1	13.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -76,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	80.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	69.4	17.1
– Net Position:	-76,651	151,326	-74,675
– Gross Longs:	96,245	1,087,382	155,853
– Gross Shorts:	172,896	936,056	230,528
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	79.1	77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	2.1	30.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -86,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	78.0	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.6	11.8
– Net Position:	-86,339	53,148	33,191
– Gross Longs:	78,416	951,261	176,693
– Gross Shorts:	164,755	898,113	143,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	29.6	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-3.9	9.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -354,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -350,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	82.3	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	60.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-354,518	309,624	44,894
– Gross Longs:	90,476	1,179,562	158,799
– Gross Shorts:	444,994	869,938	113,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	63.9	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-9.6	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

15 Oct

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Nikkei, Ultra 10s & Canadian Dollar top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 11th.

We added new charts this week that gives a trend view with the linear regression and a 20-week moving average. Note that the weekly candles close on Tuesdays to match up with the COT data and will have significant gaps.

This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 91.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

Bitcoin’s strength score jumped from 76.4 percent last week with a gain in speculator bets this week.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 85.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

Despite the speculator extreme, the Nikkei ETF price has been on a sharp downfall as seen in the chart.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 81.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 9.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The Ultra 10-Year Note is a futures product that stays very close to the actual 10-Year Bond and has an approximate maturity between 9 and a half years and 10 years (Compared to the original 10-Year Bond futures that has a maturity from 7-10 years).

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The CAD speculator level is at a 10.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The exchange rate for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar is near two-year lows at the moment.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Note speculator level resides at a 10.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The 2-Year has been falling sharply since the US Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates and could likely continue lower as inflation remains high. The yield on the 2-Year has climbed to 4.50 percent.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The EAFE speculator level is at a 11.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The EAFE ETF price has fallen with the speculator sentiment as seen on the chart and has fallen to the lowest levels since May 2020.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 12.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

Like the 2-Year, the 5-Year has been on a steep downtrend this year as the Fed and central banks around the world up their interest rates due to high inflation. Currently, this bond ETF level has fallen to the lowest price since 2011.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.