COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 62

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Large Currency Speculators push Euro bullish bets higher to 7-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,945 contracts) with the British Pound (12,395 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,564 contracts), Canadian Dollar (1,930 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,704 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,058 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-171 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-450 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-842 contracts) and Bitcoin (-507 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro bullish bets go higher to 7-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued strength of the speculator’s positioning for the Euro. Large speculative Euro currency positions jumped this week by over +19,000 net contracts, marking the highest one-week gain since September. This is the third time Euro positions have risen in the past four weeks and places the current net position at the best level in the past seven weeks.

The Euro, overall, has now been in a continuous bullish standing for the past 30 weeks, dating back to September 20th when the net position flipped from bearish to bullish. It was also in September when the Euro exchange rate hit a multi-decade low against the US Dollar. The Euro fell below the parity level for the first time since 2002 and bottomed out near the 0.9600 exchange level in late-September. Since that bottom, the Euro has bounced back above parity and has risen by over 14 percent to close this week above the 1.1030 exchange rate.

Helping the Euro gain ground against the US Dollar has been the interest rate differential. Last year, the rate differential was in favor of the US Dollar as the Federal Reserve hiked consistently and sharply while the European Central Bank (ECB) lagged behind. This year, investor’s are forecasting an end to the Fed’s hiking campaign while the ECB seeks to continue raising their interest rate to further combat inflation and triggering further Euro bullish calls.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,076	30	13,264	47	-15,012	52	1,748	36
EUR	759,439	78	163,338	81	-212,065	19	48,727	57
GBP	225,292	52	-2,398	67	-5,341	30	7,739	73
JPY	176,822	32	-57,207	34	56,349	63	858	55
CHF	38,272	29	-6,734	37	9,736	61	-3,002	47
CAD	164,875	40	-56,579	2	58,205	96	-1,626	19
AUD	159,441	57	-37,937	50	47,070	54	-9,133	30
NZD	35,806	23	-4,481	41	2,571	53	1,910	74
MXN	260,053	59	60,477	94	-65,515	6	5,038	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,986	31	12,945	52	-14,593	47	1,648	57
Bitcoin	15,977	81	-1,122	57	373	0	749	30

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the EuroFX (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), Bitcoin (57 percent) and the Brazilian Real (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (34 percent) and the Swiss Franc (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (67.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (36.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (59.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (57.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-24 percent), Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-31.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-34.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (71.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-24.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	3.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	48.4	8.7
– Net Position:	13,264	-15,012	1,748
– Gross Longs:	26,090	1,006	4,626
– Gross Shorts:	12,826	16,018	2,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	51.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.6	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 163,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	54.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	82.1	5.3
– Net Position:	163,338	-212,065	48,727
– Gross Longs:	244,180	411,456	89,357
– Gross Shorts:	80,842	623,521	40,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.8	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.1	-1.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	55.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	58.1	10.4
– Net Position:	-2,398	-5,341	7,739
– Gross Longs:	54,928	125,634	31,221
– Gross Shorts:	57,326	130,975	23,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.5	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-28.4	40.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	75.0	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	43.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-57,207	56,349	858
– Gross Longs:	11,933	132,604	30,405
– Gross Shorts:	69,140	76,255	29,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.1	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-6.9	25.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	52.0	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	26.6	39.3
– Net Position:	-6,734	9,736	-3,002
– Gross Longs:	4,155	19,920	12,050
– Gross Shorts:	10,889	10,184	15,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.0	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	-9.4	25.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	70.7	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	35.4	18.6
– Net Position:	-56,579	58,205	-1,626
– Gross Longs:	16,914	116,537	29,091
– Gross Shorts:	73,493	58,332	30,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	95.8	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	13.4	1.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	54.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	24.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-37,937	47,070	-9,133
– Gross Longs:	45,481	86,468	21,588
– Gross Shorts:	83,418	39,398	30,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	54.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	13.8	-11.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	49.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	42.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,481	2,571	1,910
– Gross Longs:	13,097	17,758	4,811
– Gross Shorts:	17,578	15,187	2,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	52.5	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.4	20.6	32.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	44.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	69.6	1.0
– Net Position:	60,477	-65,515	5,038
– Gross Longs:	136,355	115,499	7,520
– Gross Shorts:	75,878	181,014	2,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.5	-68.3	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	20.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	53.4	5.6
– Net Position:	12,945	-14,593	1,648
– Gross Longs:	30,795	8,916	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	17,850	23,509	2,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.7	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.2	-0.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	5.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	3.0	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,122	373	749
– Gross Longs:	12,216	857	1,542
– Gross Shorts:	13,338	484	793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	75.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	3.9	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Apr

COT Bonds Speculators raise 3-Month SOFR bets as Eurodollars are phased out

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (41,837 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (19,258 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (8,480 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (5,214 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-20,036 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-18,006 contracts), the Eurodollar (-2,166 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-2,938 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-10,494 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

SOFR contracts to replace Eurodollar contracts this week

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is an important week for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Months) or SOFR contracts. The SOFR contracts are relatively new on the scene as these futures only started in 2020. The SOFR contracts are in the process of taking the place of the Eurodollar contracts as the Eurodollars are being phased out and this week marks the last week for traders to use the Eurodollars contracts. Going forward, the Eurodollars contracts will be converted into 3-Month SOFRs and we will cease to have a Eurodollars futures contract.

The Eurodollars were the most traded and the highest open interest contract in the futures market for many years because it was a way for investors to express a view on short-term interest rates based on the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). However, LIBOR was fraught with controversy as it was a survey based on banks and was caught up in a manipulation scandal in 2012. In that scandal, bank participants colluded to move the LIBOR rate higher or lower and use that to their advantage.

The SOFR has taken precedence because it is calculated using actually market data (provided by the NY Fed Bank) instead of survey data. The SOFR data is from the US Dollar Treasury overnight repurchase agreement (REPO) transactions which are essentially loans between banks that are backed and collateralized by Treasury securities.

The SOFR contracts now have the highest open interest levels with these contracts exceeding over 10 million in open interest in March. To read more on the SOFRs and how to imply the SOFR interest rate from the futures contracts, see here.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,630,651	0	-649,485	57	801,073	41	-151,588	71
FedFunds	1,624,730	57	-167,276	19	175,875	81	-8,599	74
2-Year	2,531,969	68	-496,841	25	460,413	72	36,428	73
Long T-Bond	1,179,823	52	-132,584	41	69,508	35	63,076	95
10-Year	4,275,293	84	-639,037	0	622,661	88	16,376	87
5-Year	4,446,566	97	-761,981	2	722,702	94	39,279	92

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (82 percent) and the Eurodollar (57 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (41 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (21.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (41.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (42.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Eurodollar (57.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (78.2 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (54 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Fed Funds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (20.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-20.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (9.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
Eurodollar (9.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -649,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -647,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	67.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	50.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-649,485	801,073	-151,588
– Gross Longs:	288,650	3,134,754	207,022
– Gross Shorts:	938,135	2,333,681	358,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	40.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.4	19.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -159,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	57.7	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	56.0	0.5
– Net Position:	-159,440	159,269	171
– Gross Longs:	1,920,637	5,513,375	48,102
– Gross Shorts:	2,080,077	5,354,106	47,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	18.3	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-55.0	4.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -167,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.3	82.1	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	71.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-167,276	175,875	-8,599
– Gross Longs:	37,100	1,334,569	38,360
– Gross Shorts:	204,376	1,158,694	46,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	81.2	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-1.3	14.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -496,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -502,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	82.3	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	64.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-496,841	460,413	36,428
– Gross Longs:	221,139	2,084,824	205,672
– Gross Shorts:	717,980	1,624,411	169,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	72.0	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-25.7	9.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -761,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -781,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	67.2	7.3
– Net Position:	-761,981	722,702	39,279
– Gross Longs:	312,076	3,708,958	365,278
– Gross Shorts:	1,074,057	2,986,256	325,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	94.0	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	1.9	25.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -639,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -621,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	79.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	65.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-639,037	622,661	16,376
– Gross Longs:	418,080	3,405,619	371,253
– Gross Shorts:	1,057,117	2,782,958	354,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	88.4	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	-11.6	28.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -196,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	81.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	63.4	14.9
– Net Position:	-196,971	280,480	-83,509
– Gross Longs:	126,517	1,290,288	153,890
– Gross Shorts:	323,488	1,009,808	237,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	94.3	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.9	10.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -132,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	79.0	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	73.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-132,584	69,508	63,076
– Gross Longs:	69,855	932,461	173,415
– Gross Shorts:	202,439	862,953	110,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	35.4	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-31.3	32.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -399,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -407,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	83.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	58.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-399,278	348,669	50,609
– Gross Longs:	78,023	1,172,982	159,503
– Gross Shorts:	477,301	824,313	108,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	77.2	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-21.8	21.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

15 Apr

COT Metals Speculators raise their Silver bets for 5th week to a 10-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a rise of 2,435 contracts this week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-2,471 contracts) with Platinum (-2,090 contracts), Copper (-1,349 contracts), Steel (-970 contracts) and Palladium (-427 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Silver speculator bets rise for 5th week to 10-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Silver speculative positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures climbed this week for a fifth straight week. Silver spec bets have now jumped by a total of +31,500 contracts over the past five weeks. This recent speculator sentiment bump has taken the Silver position from a total of -1,219 contracts on March 14th to a total of +23,718 contracts this week, leveling at the most bullish standing for Silver in ten weeks.

The Silver futures price has continued to enjoy a bullish run and has now increased for five consecutive weeks. The futures price has risen by over 20 percent in these past five weeks and touched the highest level since last April before closing this week at almost $25.50.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,567	25	192,745	62	-216,548	40	23,803	40
Silver	142,699	29	23,718	52	-36,255	50	12,537	36
Copper	209,501	50	-4,303	25	-1,217	72	5,520	53
Palladium	12,290	88	-7,073	0	7,491	100	-418	17
Platinum	60,115	41	13,333	46	-18,511	55	5,178	37

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (0.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.0 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.6 percent)
Copper (24.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.8 percent)
Platinum (46.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.2 percent)
Palladium (0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.2 percent)
Steel (58.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.2 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (37 percent) and Silver (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (18.5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (37.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (33.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.5 percent)
Platinum (18.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (28.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.5 percent)
Steel (-4.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 192,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	25.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.6	5.3
– Net Position:	192,745	-216,548	23,803
– Gross Longs:	260,165	119,710	49,102
– Gross Shorts:	67,420	336,258	25,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	40.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.0	-34.4	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	33.4	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	58.8	8.9
– Net Position:	23,718	-36,255	12,537
– Gross Longs:	55,583	47,629	25,218
– Gross Shorts:	31,865	83,884	12,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	50.0	36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-28.0	-3.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.2	6.3
– Net Position:	-4,303	-1,217	5,520
– Gross Longs:	56,063	91,399	18,793
– Gross Shorts:	60,366	92,616	13,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	72.4	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.0	-3.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	34.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	65.3	4.0
– Net Position:	13,333	-18,511	5,178
– Gross Longs:	29,570	20,768	7,569
– Gross Shorts:	16,237	39,279	2,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	55.2	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-17.9	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	10.8	14.1
– Net Position:	-7,073	7,491	-418
– Gross Longs:	1,463	8,814	1,319
– Gross Shorts:	8,536	1,323	1,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	6.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	8.2	4.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	76.4	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,108	4,951	157
– Gross Longs:	3,428	21,857	317
– Gross Shorts:	8,536	16,906	160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	41.4	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.4	-10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

15 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost their Coffee bets to best level in 26-Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (17,619 contracts) with Sugar (13,137 contracts), Coffee (12,229 contracts), Live Cattle (8,442 contracts), Cotton (3,464 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,969 contracts) and Soybean Meal (2,810 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-5,883 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-4,303 contracts), Soybeans (-4,999 contracts) and Cocoa (-332 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee bets rebound to best level in 26-Weeks

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rebound in the Coffee speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Coffee jumped this week by over +12,000 contracts after having fallen in the previous two weeks. Coffee’s speculative positioning is showing positive trends again with the net position back in bullish territory for each of the past ten weeks. This follows a streak of thirteen straight weeks of bearish Coffee positions that took place from November 8th to January 31st.

Coffee speculative bets had experienced a strong few years with positions rising strongly in the second half of 2020 and maintaining that momentum through 2021 and most of 2022. The end of 2022 saw the shine fall off the Coffee positions and the Coffee price as well with the Coffee futures price dropping over 35 percent from September to January.

The Coffee price hit a recent bottom in January and has been back on a bullish trend with prices gaining by more than 30 percent since that bottom compared to this week’s close. This week saw the Coffee futures price rise for a second straight week and with a 2-week total gain of over +10 percent.

The speculator’s net position, meanwhile, is now at the most bullish level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to October 11th of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,875,140	43	235,632	19	-255,411	82	19,779	32
Gold	476,567	25	192,745	62	-216,548	40	23,803	40
Silver	142,699	29	23,718	52	-36,255	50	12,537	36
Copper	209,501	50	-4,303	25	-1,217	72	5,520	53
Palladium	12,290	88	-7,073	0	7,491	100	-418	17
Platinum	60,115	41	13,333	46	-18,511	55	5,178	37
Natural Gas	1,355,672	79	-140,895	16	111,181	84	29,714	51
Brent	146,905	11	-42,610	22	37,056	74	5,554	84
Heating Oil	268,008	23	9,694	44	-30,770	53	21,076	71
Soybeans	716,906	31	179,346	60	-148,511	45	-30,835	20
Corn	1,338,484	19	103,309	43	-45,283	65	-58,026	19
Coffee	192,988	7	24,877	53	-25,241	51	364	17
Sugar	992,086	69	259,788	83	-317,308	12	57,520	79
Wheat	391,899	61	-66,682	5	62,318	92	4,364	94

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent), Live Cattle (84 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week are all in Extreme-Bullish levels. Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Soybeans (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and the Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (41.0 percent)
Sugar (83.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (52.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybeans (59.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (61.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.7 percent)
Live Cattle (84.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (74.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.6 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.7 percent)
Wheat (5.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.4 percent)

Sugar & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Coffee (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (8 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-25.2 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (8.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-30.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-19.6 percent)
Cotton (-3.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (0.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	51.3	13.0
– Net Position:	103,309	-45,283	-58,026
– Gross Longs:	336,195	640,896	115,312
– Gross Shorts:	232,886	686,179	173,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	65.4	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 259,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	39.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	70.9	5.1
– Net Position:	259,788	-317,308	57,520
– Gross Longs:	341,373	386,564	108,381
– Gross Shorts:	81,585	703,872	50,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	12.1	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-15.3	21.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	46.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	59.4	4.2
– Net Position:	24,877	-25,241	364
– Gross Longs:	45,503	89,339	8,467
– Gross Shorts:	20,626	114,580	8,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	50.8	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.4	-12.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 179,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	44.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.9	64.8	10.8
– Net Position:	179,346	-148,511	-30,835
– Gross Longs:	214,620	316,234	46,749
– Gross Shorts:	35,274	464,745	77,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	45.4	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-10.6	16.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	58.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	57.0	6.7
– Net Position:	-6,356	8,180	-1,824
– Gross Longs:	71,655	284,392	30,877
– Gross Shorts:	78,011	276,212	32,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	98.1	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	24.9	-33.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	38.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	68.9	6.9
– Net Position:	115,912	-134,052	18,140
– Gross Longs:	136,621	166,246	48,190
– Gross Shorts:	20,709	300,298	30,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	32.6	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	19.7	29.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 94,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	26.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	52.6	12.5
– Net Position:	94,616	-87,749	-6,867
– Gross Longs:	144,362	88,301	35,140
– Gross Shorts:	49,746	176,050	42,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	14.8	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	13.6	8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	36.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	26.7	11.2
– Net Position:	-24,092	21,623	2,469
– Gross Longs:	65,097	82,733	27,981
– Gross Shorts:	89,189	61,110	25,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	15.3	22.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	48.8	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	47.1	6.6
– Net Position:	-3,279	3,057	222
– Gross Longs:	51,255	90,941	12,514
– Gross Shorts:	54,534	87,884	12,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	-4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	34.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	53.5	3.3
– Net Position:	59,913	-65,075	5,162
– Gross Longs:	126,337	120,838	16,466
– Gross Shorts:	66,424	185,913	11,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	0.4	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.7	7.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	34.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	18.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-66,682	62,318	4,364
– Gross Longs:	109,545	134,826	42,293
– Gross Shorts:	176,227	72,508	37,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	91.8	94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-3.6	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

15 Apr

Stock Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (16,255 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (13,847 contracts), Russell-Mini (11,825 contracts), VIX (7,720 contracts), DowJones-Mini (1,979 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,165 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,874 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (-627 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,248,469	19	-307,612	2	342,012	96	-34,400	20
Nikkei 225	11,035	2	-2,114	64	1,673	40	441	34
Nasdaq-Mini	237,470	34	-2,130	74	7,920	31	-5,790	43
DowJones-Mini	90,263	48	-21,646	19	28,085	91	-6,439	12
VIX	360,853	71	-49,366	79	49,252	16	114	92
Nikkei 225 Yen	39,569	19	5,968	52	14,549	50	-20,517	37

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (79 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (64 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (2 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (18.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (44.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (37.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (21.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The S&P500-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-15 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	38.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-49,366	49,252	114
– Gross Longs:	76,020	188,606	25,538
– Gross Shorts:	125,386	139,354	25,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	16.4	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.5	10.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -307,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	77.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	62.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-307,612	342,012	-34,400
– Gross Longs:	207,007	1,749,879	227,253
– Gross Shorts:	514,619	1,407,867	261,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	95.7	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	23.8	-7.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.3	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	36.2	19.8
– Net Position:	-21,646	28,085	-6,439
– Gross Longs:	17,410	60,765	11,475
– Gross Shorts:	39,056	32,680	17,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	90.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	21.7	-24.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	61.1	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.7	18.0
– Net Position:	-2,130	7,920	-5,790
– Gross Longs:	51,607	144,976	36,868
– Gross Shorts:	53,737	137,056	42,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	31.4	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-21.0	23.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	73.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-45,131	46,801	-1,670
– Gross Longs:	51,942	408,764	21,546
– Gross Shorts:	97,073	361,963	23,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	56.8	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	3.0	-9.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	49.7	31.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	34.5	27.1
– Net Position:	-2,114	1,673	441
– Gross Longs:	2,121	5,482	3,432
– Gross Shorts:	4,235	3,809	2,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	40.4	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.3	6.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	89.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	86.2	1.1
– Net Position:	-18,360	11,211	7,149
– Gross Longs:	30,279	352,149	11,449
– Gross Shorts:	48,639	340,938	4,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	72.6	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	5.3	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Apr

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (9,291 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (8,634 contracts), Australian Dollar (8,120 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,579 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,387 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-9,480 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-1,632 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-1,684 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,929 contracts), Japanese Yen (-3,061 contracts) and Bitcoin (-339 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions fell this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -29,307 net contracts to the overall bearish position in just the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at -58,509 contracts) to the most bearish level of the past 220 weeks, dating back to January 15th of 2019.

Hurting the Canadian dollar’s appeal has been the recent pause in interest rate rises by the Bank of Canada (after 8 rate hikes previously) as well as the slide in the price of Crude Oil. The Canadian dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a multi-year high in May of 2022 at over 0.8280. The CAD front month futures price closed this week at the 0.7431 exchange and has now risen for two straight weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,076	28	14,106	48	-16,154	50	2,048	39
EUR	747,095	74	143,393	74	-194,787	25	51,394	61
GBP	224,690	52	-14,793	56	8,881	40	5,912	70
JPY	178,828	35	-57,036	34	52,266	61	4,770	63
CHF	37,177	26	-8,003	33	10,822	63	-2,819	48
CAD	169,138	43	-58,509	0	58,148	96	361	24
AUD	151,242	50	-27,233	60	36,837	46	-9,604	29
NZD	36,080	24	-4,031	43	2,697	53	1,334	67
MXN	250,403	55	57,913	92	-63,177	8	5,264	89
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	35,244	19	14,003	54	-15,562	46	1,559	56
Bitcoin	13,380	61	-615	66	-183	0	798	31

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (92 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (66 percent), Australian Dollar (60 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (42.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.1 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Canadian Dollar (-20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.2 percent)
EuroFX (-8.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-34.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (71.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (3.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.7	1.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	51.8	8.3
– Net Position:	14,106	-16,154	2,048
– Gross Longs:	25,574	473	4,703
– Gross Shorts:	11,468	16,627	2,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.1	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	0.8	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 143,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	81.6	5.4
– Net Position:	143,393	-194,787	51,394
– Gross Longs:	225,416	415,104	91,568
– Gross Shorts:	82,023	609,891	40,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	24.7	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.4	4.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	59.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	55.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-14,793	8,881	5,912
– Gross Longs:	46,415	133,802	31,247
– Gross Shorts:	61,208	124,921	25,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	40.1	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-19.5	43.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -57,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	74.6	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	45.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-57,036	52,266	4,770
– Gross Longs:	11,523	133,327	32,150
– Gross Shorts:	68,559	81,061	27,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	61.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.6	35.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	53.9	32.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	24.8	40.5
– Net Position:	-8,003	10,822	-2,819
– Gross Longs:	2,958	20,038	12,249
– Gross Shorts:	10,961	9,216	15,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	62.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	-2.0	9.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	70.2	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	35.9	18.2
– Net Position:	-58,509	58,148	361
– Gross Longs:	16,607	118,790	31,176
– Gross Shorts:	75,116	60,642	30,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	12.5	5.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	53.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	28.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-27,233	36,837	-9,604
– Gross Longs:	46,687	80,257	19,523
– Gross Shorts:	73,920	43,420	29,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	46.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	8.8	-22.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	47.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	39.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,031	2,697	1,334
– Gross Longs:	14,280	17,050	4,501
– Gross Shorts:	18,311	14,353	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	52.8	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	27.6	12.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	71.1	1.0
– Net Position:	57,913	-63,177	5,264
– Gross Longs:	127,371	114,977	7,808
– Gross Shorts:	69,458	178,154	2,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	71.8	-67.7	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	19.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	63.9	6.1
– Net Position:	14,003	-15,562	1,559
– Gross Longs:	24,576	6,964	3,704
– Gross Shorts:	10,573	22,526	2,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	2.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-615	-183	798
– Gross Longs:	10,415	302	1,458
– Gross Shorts:	11,030	485	660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	50.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-27.6	9.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Apr

COT Metals: Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,586 contracts) with Silver (7,922 contracts), Platinum (5,049 contracts), Palladium (118 contracts) and Steel (1,117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Copper (-1,409 contracts).

Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued rise in bets for the Gold and Silver speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a fourth straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Gold speculator bets have now jumped by a total of +96,742 contracts over just the past four weeks going from a total net position of +98,474
contracts on March 7th to a total of +195,216 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the Silver speculator positions have also risen for four straight weeks and have gained by a total of +29,065 contracts over that four-week period. These gains have taken the Silver position out of an overall bearish level of -7,782 contracts on March 7th to a total of +21,283 contracts this week (the most bullish level since January 31st).

The Gold and Silver futures prices have also been on the rise as well. The Gold futures front month price closed this week at approximately the $2,026 level which is the highest weekly close since August 3rd of 2020. Gold is now up over 25 percent since October.

Silver futures prices have gained for four straight weeks and closed this week above $25, the highest level since April of 2022. Silver prices are up by over 40 percent from the most recent cycle low in late-August of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,592	25	195,216	63	-218,250	40	23,034	38
Silver	131,210	16	21,283	49	-31,435	56	10,152	23
Copper	218,687	57	-2,954	26	-4,897	69	7,851	68
Palladium	11,820	82	-6,646	4	7,011	97	-365	20
Platinum	59,156	38	15,423	51	-19,201	54	3,778	19

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (63 percent) and Steel (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.0 percent)
Silver (48.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (25.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.0 percent)
Platinum (51.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.9 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (39 percent) and Platinum (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.6 percent)
Copper (-4.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.5 percent)
Platinum (28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.1 percent)
Palladium (-13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.4 percent)
Steel (0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 195,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 181,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.8	24.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	70.3	5.4
– Net Position:	195,216	-218,250	23,034
– Gross Longs:	266,164	116,869	48,740
– Gross Shorts:	70,948	335,119	25,706
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	39.7	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.8	-34.4	2.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	34.2	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	58.2	10.7
– Net Position:	21,283	-31,435	10,152
– Gross Longs:	50,327	44,936	24,209
– Gross Shorts:	29,044	76,371	14,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	55.8	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-10.2	-16.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	42.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.0	5.3
– Net Position:	-2,954	-4,897	7,851
– Gross Longs:	60,538	93,465	19,483
– Gross Shorts:	63,492	98,362	11,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	69.3	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	3.1	8.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	35.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	67.5	5.2
– Net Position:	15,423	-19,201	3,778
– Gross Longs:	29,841	20,708	6,873
– Gross Shorts:	14,418	39,909	3,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	53.8	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.9	-22.3	-22.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	71.5	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	12.2	13.9
– Net Position:	-6,646	7,011	-365
– Gross Longs:	1,551	8,450	1,279
– Gross Shorts:	8,197	1,439	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	5.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	96.6	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	12.3	-0.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	75.3	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	61.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-4,138	3,958	180
– Gross Longs:	3,532	21,243	334
– Gross Shorts:	7,670	17,285	154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	38.5	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	0.2	-18.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

08 Apr

Bond Speculators boost their 5-Year Bond bearish bets to highest level since 2018

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (23,422 contracts) with the Fed Funds (21,360 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,018 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-154,078 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-149,453 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-98,884 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-38,247 contracts), the Eurodollar (-17,911 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-34,673 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost their 5-Year Bond bearish bets to highest level since 2018

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the renewed bearishness of the speculator positioning in the 5-Year Bonds contracts.

Large speculative positions for the 5-Year Bonds dropped sharply this week by the largest one-week amount of the past 17 weeks. Speculator bets have fallen for three straight weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks.

Prior to the past seven weeks, speculator bets had been improving and saw lessening bearish bets in seven out of the previous nine weeks that had brought the overall bearish level to a total of -589,391 contracts on February 14th. Since then a total of -191,848 contracts have been added back to the overall net bearish position – bringing this week’s total of -781,239 contracts to the most bearish standing since October 16th of 2018, a span dating back 233 weeks. The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have been in a continuous bearish position for the 84 consecutive weeks (since August 31st of 2021).

Despite the speculators bearishness this week, the 5-Year Bond futures price closed the week higher. The front month futures finished the week over the 110.20 level which marks the highest closing price since September and the 5-Year Bond futures have now risen for five out of the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,684,564	0	-647,319	57	820,938	41	-173,619	66
FedFunds	1,577,225	53	-147,240	21	156,927	79	-9,687	72
2-Year	2,351,682	52	-502,055	25	483,170	75	18,885	65
Long T-Bond	1,193,583	56	-129,646	42	82,281	40	47,365	84
10-Year	4,263,195	83	-621,031	1	618,359	88	2,672	84
5-Year	4,493,575	100	-781,239	0	754,970	98	26,269	88

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (78 percent) and the Eurodollar (57 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (42 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (1 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15 percent) came in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (21.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (18.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (42.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (54.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
Eurodollar (57.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (78.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (90.7 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 10-Year Bonds (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Fed Funds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-6.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-10.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-14.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (8.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
Eurodollar (9.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (10.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (40.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -647,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	67.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	50.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-647,319	820,938	-173,619
– Gross Longs:	275,724	3,168,706	237,406
– Gross Shorts:	923,043	2,347,768	411,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	41.2	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.4	17.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -201,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -154,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	57.9	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	55.7	0.9
– Net Position:	-201,277	206,206	-4,929
– Gross Longs:	1,887,973	5,451,417	80,647
– Gross Shorts:	2,089,250	5,245,211	85,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	22.1	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.9	-43.1	-5.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -147,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 21,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -168,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.2	81.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	71.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-147,240	156,927	-9,687
– Gross Longs:	35,204	1,285,513	38,653
– Gross Shorts:	182,444	1,128,586	48,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.9	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	6.3	10.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -502,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -525,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	84.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-502,055	483,170	18,885
– Gross Longs:	131,369	1,994,892	194,214
– Gross Shorts:	633,424	1,511,722	175,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	75.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-24.7	-8.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -781,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -98,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -682,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	84.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	67.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-781,239	754,970	26,269
– Gross Longs:	276,432	3,791,191	366,353
– Gross Shorts:	1,057,671	3,036,221	340,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	88.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	14.5	16.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -621,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -149,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -471,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	80.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-621,031	618,359	2,672
– Gross Longs:	366,793	3,440,398	374,033
– Gross Shorts:	987,824	2,822,039	371,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	87.9	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	3.1	22.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -186,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	80.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	62.6	16.7
– Net Position:	-186,477	279,297	-92,820
– Gross Longs:	122,771	1,268,053	171,348
– Gross Shorts:	309,248	988,756	264,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.4	94.0	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	13.4	-9.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -129,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	79.1	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	72.3	9.9
– Net Position:	-129,646	82,281	47,365
– Gross Longs:	78,208	944,657	165,747
– Gross Shorts:	207,854	862,376	118,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	39.9	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-15.3	13.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -407,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -421,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	58.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-407,758	353,313	54,445
– Gross Longs:	71,916	1,171,667	164,167
– Gross Shorts:	479,674	818,354	109,722
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	79.4	94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-5.1	15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Apr

S&P500-Mini Speculators dropped their positions sharply to multi-year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are all lower

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-96,803 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-56 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,797 contracts), Nikkei 225 (-2,185 contracts), VIX (-14,909 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-11,037 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (-14,206 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

S&P500-Mini Speculators dropped their positions sharply to multi-year low

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the continued increases in bearish bets for the S&P500-Mini speculative positions.

The large speculator position in the S&P500-Mini futures dropped sharply this week and fell for the third straight week as well as for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. This week’s speculative decline by -96,803 contracts marks the largest one-week shortfall since last June and the S&P500-Mini bets have now been in a continuous bearish position for the past 42 consecutive weeks, also dating back to last June of 2022.

This week’s overall net speculator position standing of -321,459 contracts is now at the most bearish level since November 8th of 2011, a span dating back for 595 weeks. The speculator strength scores shows a bearish-extreme strength score level at 0 percent (or the absolute bottom) of its 3-year range. The speculator strength score trend (the past 6-weeks change of strength scores) shows a rising downtrend of -16 percent.

The COT speculator’s extreme bearish positioning does not portend a stock market downtrend though as the correlations between speculators and the stock markets are not nearly as strong as other futures markets (which are more trend-following). This can be due to the large amount of hedging positions throughout these markets.

The S&P500-Mini stock futures price has continued on its move higher after bottoming in October near the 3500 level. This week saw the S&P500-Mini futures close above the 4141 level and is up by approximately 18 percent since the most recent bottom in October.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,219,512	17	-321,459	0	281,472	87	39,987	36
Nikkei 225	10,833	2	-3,279	58	1,784	41	1,495	47
Nasdaq-Mini	232,186	32	-18,385	65	12,556	34	5,829	64
DowJones-Mini	88,291	46	-23,625	14	32,621	100	-8,996	0
VIX	355,008	68	-57,086	74	56,391	21	695	95
Nikkei 225 Yen	36,670	13	6,595	54	9,730	37	-16,325	50

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (74 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (58 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (83.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (13.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (37.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (46.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (57.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (69.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.8 percent)

VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (-1 percent) was the highest of the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The DowJones-Mini (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 Yen (-17 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-15.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-19.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-44.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (12.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (6.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -57,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	53.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	37.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-57,086	56,391	695
– Gross Longs:	72,161	190,494	28,808
– Gross Shorts:	129,247	134,103	28,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	21.3	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-4.1	33.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -321,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -96,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -224,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.2	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	63.5	11.8
– Net Position:	-321,459	281,472	39,987
– Gross Longs:	163,766	1,690,406	300,962
– Gross Shorts:	485,225	1,408,934	260,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	86.5	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	6.1	10.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -23,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	68.3	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	31.4	24.8
– Net Position:	-23,625	32,621	-8,996
– Gross Longs:	14,302	60,314	12,942
– Gross Shorts:	37,927	27,693	21,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	30.5	-37.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	59.3	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	53.9	19.5
– Net Position:	-18,385	12,556	5,829
– Gross Longs:	38,815	137,754	51,175
– Gross Shorts:	57,200	125,198	45,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	34.2	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	-13.6	49.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	85.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	72.8	5.3
– Net Position:	-56,956	61,943	-4,987
– Gross Longs:	44,007	419,111	20,784
– Gross Shorts:	100,963	357,168	25,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.8	65.3	11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	7.3	-33.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	52.9	39.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	36.4	25.6
– Net Position:	-3,279	1,784	1,495
– Gross Longs:	839	5,728	4,266
– Gross Shorts:	4,118	3,944	2,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	41.0	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	-0.2	16.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.2	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	86.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-16,486	9,921	6,565
– Gross Longs:	28,818	351,928	11,632
– Gross Shorts:	45,304	342,007	5,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	71.0	49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.8	0.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Apr

Sugar Speculator bets rise higher as Futures prices hit highest level since 2016

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a little higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (23,822 contracts) with Soybeans (23,325 contracts), Live Cattle (21,476 contracts), Corn (14,162 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,214 contracts) and Cotton (3,378 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-4,103 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-1,439 contracts), Cocoa (-1,028 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,717 contracts) and Wheat (-254 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculator bets rise higher as Futures prices hit highest level since 2016

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the gains in the Sugar speculator’s bullish positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week by over +23,000 contracts and have gained for two straight weeks as well as for three out of the past five weeks. The bullish sentiment has pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in nine weeks and are currently also at the second highest level since November of 2021 with a current net position of +246,651 contracts.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level has been on the rise with a current score of 79 percent (out of a 3-year range on a 0-100 percent scale) while its 6-week strength score trend has increased by 5 percent.

The Sugar futures price has been in a strong bullish trend, climbing for a third consecutive week and closing out the week higher by over 8 percent. This week’s front month futures price reached above $23.00 which is the highest prices have touched since 2016. Overall, Sugar prices are up by approximately 25 percent since the start of the year.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,858,446	41	226,127	17	-239,970	86	13,843	22
Gold	476,592	25	195,216	63	-218,250	40	23,034	38
Silver	131,210	16	21,283	49	-31,435	56	10,152	23
Copper	218,687	57	-2,954	26	-4,897	69	7,851	68
Palladium	11,820	82	-6,646	4	7,011	97	-365	20
Platinum	59,156	38	15,423	51	-19,201	54	3,778	19
Natural Gas	1,365,656	81	-130,485	20	100,737	80	29,748	51
Brent	146,925	11	-38,540	30	33,701	67	4,839	75
Heating Oil	270,347	24	4,856	35	-22,607	65	17,751	60
Soybeans	746,111	37	184,345	62	-163,267	40	-21,078	37
Corn	1,334,671	19	85,690	41	-53,314	64	-32,376	40
Coffee	201,425	13	12,648	40	-13,119	63	471	18
Sugar	1,005,892	72	246,651	79	-304,019	16	57,368	79
Wheat	375,999	52	-60,799	10	54,864	85	5,935	100

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (99 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (75 percent), Soybean Meal (67 percent) and Soybeans (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Lean Hogs (2 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (41.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (39.2 percent)
Sugar (78.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (70.5 percent)
Coffee (40.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.6 percent)
Soybeans (61.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (67.4 percent)
Live Cattle (74.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (50.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (3.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.1 percent)
Cocoa (98.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (10.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.6 percent)

Cocoa & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (18 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (0.3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-30 percent), Corn (-25 percent) and Lean Hogs (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.8 percent)
Sugar (4.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.0 percent)
Soybeans (-3.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-12.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-30.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-32.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-30.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-40.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-15.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.4 percent)
Wheat (-11.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 85,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	48.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	52.3	12.5
– Net Position:	85,690	-53,314	-32,376
– Gross Longs:	310,288	644,140	134,134
– Gross Shorts:	224,598	697,454	166,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	64.3	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	22.2	33.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 246,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.6	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	68.9	5.0
– Net Position:	246,651	-304,019	57,368
– Gross Longs:	328,123	388,632	107,776
– Gross Shorts:	81,472	692,651	50,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.7	15.9	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-7.5	16.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	49.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	55.7	4.2
– Net Position:	12,648	-13,119	471
– Gross Longs:	37,985	99,174	9,019
– Gross Shorts:	25,337	112,293	8,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	62.8	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	1.1	-17.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 184,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	43.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	65.0	10.5
– Net Position:	184,345	-163,267	-21,078
– Gross Longs:	214,749	321,612	57,051
– Gross Shorts:	30,404	484,879	78,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	40.3	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	-4.5	36.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	58.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	56.5	6.5
– Net Position:	-9,325	11,432	-2,107
– Gross Longs:	67,755	284,781	29,453
– Gross Shorts:	77,080	273,349	31,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.3	34.1	-50.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 113,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	38.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.2	68.3	6.8
– Net Position:	113,102	-130,796	17,694
– Gross Longs:	135,891	167,549	47,471
– Gross Shorts:	22,789	298,345	29,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	34.3	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	32.0	9.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 86,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	27.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	50.8	12.9
– Net Position:	86,174	-78,189	-7,985
– Gross Longs:	139,994	89,218	34,675
– Gross Shorts:	53,820	167,407	42,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	26.4	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	20.6	6.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	36.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	27.4	11.6
– Net Position:	-19,789	19,479	310
– Gross Longs:	67,173	80,675	26,223
– Gross Shorts:	86,962	61,196	25,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	97.5	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	16.5	25.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	49.1	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.0	6.6
– Net Position:	-6,743	8,030	-1,287
– Gross Longs:	49,554	95,210	11,458
– Gross Shorts:	56,297	87,180	12,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	95.8	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.7	-10.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	36.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	52.3	3.0
– Net Position:	60,245	-64,227	3,982
– Gross Longs:	127,043	146,541	16,086
– Gross Shorts:	66,798	210,768	12,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.5	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-16.2	-15.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	34.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	19.7	9.8
– Net Position:	-60,799	54,864	5,935
– Gross Longs:	99,290	129,015	42,631
– Gross Shorts:	160,089	74,151	36,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.4	84.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	6.8	22.1

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