COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 63

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators continued to trim their Japanese Yen bearish positions

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,370 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (3,106 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,173 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,223 contracts), EuroFX (183 contracts) and Bitcoin (345 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-3,586 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-2,251 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,374 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,425 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continued to trim their bearish positions

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the improvement of the speculator’s positioning for the Japanese yen. Large speculative Japanese yen positions gained this week by over +12,000 net contracts and rose for a third straight week with a total change of +21,328 contracts over that 3-week period.

The yen, overall, has been in a continuous bearish standing for the past 107 weeks, dating back to March of 2021. The height of the yen bearish positions (eleven straight weeks over -90,000 contracts) was in April and May of 2022 while the bearish level reached a position of -102,618 contracts as recently as October 25th. Since that recent low, the yen positioning has improved markedly with positions falling to as low as -20,060 contracts on January 31st. This week’s gain marks the best in the past fifteen weeks and brings the overall net position (currently at -53,975 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 21st.

The yen spot price has been on the move since dropping to a multi-decade low against the US Dollar in October. The USDJPY currency pair had surged as high as 151.94 on October 17th but has now come back down to the 130s level with the currency pair closing out this week at 132.83.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	31,128	26	12,719	46	-15,085	52	2,366	42
EUR	732,506	68	145,025	74	-191,248	26	46,223	53
GBP	199,868	37	-24,084	48	22,577	49	1,507	61
JPY	169,473	31	-53,975	36	57,562	64	-3,587	46
CHF	34,856	17	-6,074	39	10,733	63	-4,659	42
CAD	176,559	48	-56,825	0	63,417	99	-6,592	8
AUD	151,238	50	-35,353	52	45,830	53	-10,477	27
NZD	31,981	13	-6,610	36	6,553	62	57	52
MXN	233,669	49	49,279	86	-53,828	15	4,549	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,663	30	23,483	66	-30,522	27	7,039	100
Bitcoin	14,409	69	-276	72	-271	0	547	25

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (86 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (72 percent), Brazilian Real (66 percent) and the Australian Dollar (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (36 percent), Japanese Yen (36 percent) and the Swiss Franc (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (35.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (85.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (67.4 percent)
Bitcoin (72.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.1 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (67 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-20 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-7.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-16.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (3.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-20.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (67.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (8.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	1.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	50.2	7.6
– Net Position:	12,719	-15,085	2,366
– Gross Longs:	24,552	545	4,737
– Gross Shorts:	11,833	15,630	2,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	51.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.7	-19.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 145,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 144,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	56.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	82.2	5.4
– Net Position:	145,025	-191,248	46,223
– Gross Longs:	222,918	410,545	85,724
– Gross Shorts:	77,893	601,793	39,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	25.9	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.9	-2.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	66.6	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	55.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-24,084	22,577	1,507
– Gross Longs:	28,355	133,149	26,264
– Gross Shorts:	52,439	110,572	24,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	49.4	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-7.8	30.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	77.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	44.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-53,975	57,562	-3,587
– Gross Longs:	9,717	132,070	24,593
– Gross Shorts:	63,692	74,508	28,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	63.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	10.6	8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	57.0	29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	26.2	42.6
– Net Position:	-6,074	10,733	-4,659
– Gross Longs:	3,978	19,865	10,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,052	9,132	14,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	62.7	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.2	-0.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	70.4	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	34.5	21.1
– Net Position:	-56,825	63,417	-6,592
– Gross Longs:	19,672	124,285	30,744
– Gross Shorts:	76,497	60,868	37,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	18.4	-12.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	55.2	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	24.9	19.7
– Net Position:	-35,353	45,830	-10,477
– Gross Longs:	43,813	83,523	19,330
– Gross Shorts:	79,166	37,693	29,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	53.1	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	16.5	-38.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	58.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	37.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-6,610	6,553	57
– Gross Longs:	9,720	18,639	3,467
– Gross Shorts:	16,330	12,086	3,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	61.9	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	39.6	-13.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	50.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	73.1	1.1
– Net Position:	49,279	-53,828	4,549
– Gross Longs:	109,417	116,939	7,079
– Gross Shorts:	60,138	170,767	2,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	14.8	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	67.4	-62.7	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.9	19.3	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	90.8	3.3
– Net Position:	23,483	-30,522	7,039
– Gross Longs:	25,968	8,231	8,429
– Gross Shorts:	2,485	38,753	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	6.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	27.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	3.5	45.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	1.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.4	3.7	6.3
– Net Position:	-276	-271	547
– Gross Longs:	11,168	263	1,449
– Gross Shorts:	11,444	534	902
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	47.0	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-28.3	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

01 Apr

Gold Speculator’s bullish bets continued to climb to 44-week high

By InvestMacro

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, which provides an update view of how large traders, such as speculators and commercial entities, position themselves in the futures markets. This data is current as of Tuesday March 28th.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,025 contracts) with Copper (10,806 contracts), Silver (9,899 contracts), Platinum (848 contracts) and Palladium (254 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-484 contracts).

Gold Speculator bets continue to climb to 44-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures climbed this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Gold spec bets have now advanced by a total of +83,156 contracts over just the past three weeks.

The Gold position has increased from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a total of +181,630 contracts this week which marks the highest level in 44-weeks, dating back to May of 2022. The boost in speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold speculator strength score to 57.0 percent (0 to 100 percent over a 3-year range) while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has gained by 33.5 percent.

The Gold futures price saw a small gain this week after a small decline last week. Previously to the past two weeks, Gold futures had risen for three straight weeks and hit the highest price in just about a year over the $2,014.00 level. This week Gold futures managed to reach a high back over the $2,000.00 price level but retreated to close at $1,986.20.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	478,611	26	181,630	57	-201,508	46	19,878	30
Silver	117,395	0	13,361	37	-21,875	67	8,514	14
Copper	211,889	52	-1,545	27	-4,924	69	6,469	59
Palladium	11,514	78	-6,764	3	7,193	98	-429	16
Platinum	57,244	32	10,374	40	-14,781	63	4,407	27

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (58 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (39.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (3.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.9 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.2 percent)
Copper (27.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.4 percent)
Platinum (39.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.6 percent)
Palladium (3.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (57.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (34 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.1 percent)
Silver (2.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (3.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.3 percent)
Platinum (10.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.5 percent)
Palladium (-16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.9 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 181,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	27.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	69.6	5.7
– Net Position:	181,630	-201,508	19,878
– Gross Longs:	245,135	131,786	47,388
– Gross Shorts:	63,505	333,294	27,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	46.1	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-28.0	-9.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	38.3	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	11.5
– Net Position:	13,361	-21,875	8,514
– Gross Longs:	42,254	44,970	22,062
– Gross Shorts:	28,893	66,845	13,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	67.4	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	4.8	-32.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	44.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	46.6	5.7
– Net Position:	-1,545	-4,924	6,469
– Gross Longs:	56,595	93,920	18,451
– Gross Shorts:	58,140	98,844	11,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	69.2	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.2	-8.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	40.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	66.3	4.9
– Net Position:	10,374	-14,781	4,407
– Gross Longs:	24,247	23,146	7,193
– Gross Shorts:	13,873	37,927	2,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	62.9	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-5.2	-24.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	72.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	9.7	13.9
– Net Position:	-6,764	7,193	-429
– Gross Longs:	1,593	8,314	1,174
– Gross Shorts:	8,357	1,121	1,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.1	98.1	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.3	-9.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	76.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	59.8	0.3
– Net Position:	-5,255	4,933	322
– Gross Longs:	3,687	23,103	422
– Gross Shorts:	8,942	18,170	100
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	41.4	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.1	-11.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

01 Apr

Bonds Speculators raised their 10-Year Bond bets to best level in 11-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (99,451 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (35,598 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22,186 contracts), Eurodollar (8,563 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (8,014 contracts), and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6,322 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-144,248 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-61,280 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-50,787 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bond Speculator bets improve to best level in 11-weeks

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the recent improvement of the speculator positioning in the 10-Year Bonds contracts. Large speculative positions for the 10-Year Bonds rose this week by the largest amount of the past 27 weeks and the weekly bets have now been higher in three out of the past five weeks as well as five out of the past seven weeks.

The 10-Year Bond speculator net positions, overall, have been in a continuous bearish position for the past 76 weeks (since October of 2021). The bearish bets have accelerated over the past year in conjunction with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign to tame inflation. The 10-Year Bonds spec position recently hit a 230-week low of -627,947 contracts on February 28th, marking the lowest level dating back to October of 2018 and potentially the low for this cycle.

Since then, the 10-Year Bond speculator positions have taken +156,369 contracts off of the bearish standing and leveled this week at a total of -471,578 contracts which marks the least bearish level of the past eleven weeks. The 10-Year Bond’s speculator strength score level remains depressed in a bearish-extreme standing of 19.3 percent (compared to its 3-year range) but its 6-week strength score trend has shown an improvement by 11.3 percent.

The 10-Year Bond futures price dipped this week after showing gains in the previous four straight weeks. The front month futures price closed at approximately the 114.30 level, just below its 50-day moving average but up over 4 percent from the 2023 low of 110.125.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,708,992	0	-629,408	58	815,499	41	-186,091	64
FedFunds	1,779,647	70	-168,600	19	174,033	81	-5,433	80
2-Year	2,356,318	52	-525,477	22	504,395	78	21,082	66
Long T-Bond	1,201,699	58	-91,399	55	21,686	18	69,713	100
10-Year	4,127,917	74	-471,578	19	436,497	68	35,081	92
5-Year	4,378,900	99	-682,355	6	628,178	83	54,177	96

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (91 percent) and the Eurodollar (58 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (6 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (11 percent), the Fed Funds (18.8 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (18.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (10.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (9.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Eurodollar (57.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (90.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (87.8 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (40 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) and the Fed Funds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (30.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (26.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.3 percent)
Eurodollar (10.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (10.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (40.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -629,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -637,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	67.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	49.9	9.0
– Net Position:	-629,408	815,499	-186,091
– Gross Longs:	332,423	3,163,717	238,646
– Gross Shorts:	961,831	2,348,218	424,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	41.1	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-11.0	13.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 35,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	56.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	56.0	0.8
– Net Position:	-47,199	52,561	-5,362
– Gross Longs:	2,001,124	5,319,827	73,750
– Gross Shorts:	2,048,323	5,267,266	79,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	9.6	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-39.6	-3.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -168,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -144,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.5	81.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	71.9	2.2
– Net Position:	-168,600	174,033	-5,433
– Gross Longs:	62,664	1,454,315	33,575
– Gross Shorts:	231,264	1,280,282	39,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	81.0	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.9	15.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -525,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -61,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -464,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	85.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	63.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-525,477	504,395	21,082
– Gross Longs:	133,376	2,007,134	196,052
– Gross Shorts:	658,853	1,502,739	174,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	78.3	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-21.1	-10.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -682,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -50,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -631,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	82.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	68.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-682,355	628,178	54,177
– Gross Longs:	343,241	3,611,307	377,097
– Gross Shorts:	1,025,596	2,983,129	322,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	82.9	95.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	1.4	22.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -471,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 99,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -571,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	78.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	68.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-471,578	436,497	35,081
– Gross Longs:	430,598	3,245,247	379,666
– Gross Shorts:	902,176	2,808,750	344,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	68.0	92.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-24.6	33.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -151,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	64.2	16.1
– Net Position:	-151,804	232,397	-80,593
– Gross Longs:	136,441	1,232,587	170,563
– Gross Shorts:	288,245	1,000,190	251,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	84.0	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.2	12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -91,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	74.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-91,399	21,686	69,713
– Gross Longs:	105,219	920,469	172,685
– Gross Shorts:	196,618	898,783	102,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	18.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-51.1	36.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -421,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 22,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -443,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	83.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	57.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-421,776	363,697	58,079
– Gross Longs:	68,540	1,175,863	170,261
– Gross Shorts:	490,316	812,166	112,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	84.5	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.3	11.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

01 Apr

Stock Market Speculators continue DowJones-Mini bearish bets despite stocks uptick

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (7,472 contracts) with Russell-Mini (2,238 contracts) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,388 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-22,176 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,228 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,421 contracts) and Nikkei 225 (-164 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

DowJones-Mini bets at lowest level since June

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the rise in bearish bets for the DowJones-Mini speculative positions. The large speculator position in the DowJones-Mini futures declined again this week and fell for the third straight week as well as for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks. The DowJones-Mini bets have now been in a continuous bearish position for the past 64 consecutive weeks, dating back to January 4th of 2022.

This week’s net position of -23,569 contracts marks the most bearish level since June of 2022 and the speculator strength scores shows a bearish-extreme strength score level at just 14 percent of its 3-year range. The speculator strength score trend (the past 6-weeks change of strength scores) also shows a strong downtrend of -44 percent which could perhaps be explained by speculators looking to hedge the recent market gains.

The DowJones-Mini stock futures price has continued to be on the uptrend after bottoming in October near the 28,650 level. This week saw the DowJone-Mini futures close above its 50-day moving average and rise by over 3 percent to the 33460 level.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,142,232	12	-224,656	15	270,978	85	-46,322	17
Nikkei 225	10,226	0	-1,094	71	1,344	38	-250	25
Nasdaq-Mini	220,074	25	-7,348	71	14,846	36	-7,498	39
DowJones-Mini	76,349	33	-23,569	14	32,570	100	-9,001	0
VIX	315,941	50	-42,177	84	45,771	14	-3,594	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	33,497	7	699	36	9,048	36	-9,747	70

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (84 percent), Nasdaq-Mini (71 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (46 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (14.6 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (14 percent) came in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (83.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (13.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (17.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (72.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (46.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (45.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (70.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (71.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (28.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.1 percent)

Russell-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (10 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (9.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-44.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-41.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (5.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (12.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (5.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	51.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	37.4	9.8
– Net Position:	-42,177	45,771	-3,594
– Gross Longs:	62,963	163,837	27,312
– Gross Shorts:	105,140	118,066	30,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	14.0	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.7	8.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -224,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -202,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	78.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	65.5	11.9
– Net Position:	-224,656	270,978	-46,322
– Gross Longs:	199,472	1,673,807	208,519
– Gross Shorts:	424,128	1,402,829	254,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	84.9	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	3.0	-9.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	70.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	27.4	24.7
– Net Position:	-23,569	32,570	-9,001
– Gross Longs:	12,190	53,504	9,852
– Gross Shorts:	35,759	20,934	18,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.3	45.6	-27.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	60.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	53.4	18.7
– Net Position:	-7,348	14,846	-7,498
– Gross Longs:	51,309	132,371	33,614
– Gross Shorts:	58,657	117,525	41,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	35.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-17.5	24.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	85.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	76.1	5.1
– Net Position:	-42,750	43,502	-752
– Gross Longs:	42,013	407,849	23,878
– Gross Shorts:	84,763	364,347	24,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	55.0	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-7.3	-25.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	53.9	26.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	40.7	29.1
– Net Position:	-1,094	1,344	-250
– Gross Longs:	1,993	5,507	2,726
– Gross Shorts:	3,087	4,163	2,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	37.6	25.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-5.5	-1.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	89.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	88.1	0.7
– Net Position:	-12,689	6,551	6,138
– Gross Longs:	29,761	355,253	9,028
– Gross Shorts:	42,450	348,702	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	66.9	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-4.3	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

01 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to multi-year highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (23,427 contracts) with Sugar (12,173 contracts), Corn (12,052 contracts), Cotton (1,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,041 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,002 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-18,802 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,767 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,350 contracts), Coffee (-1,945 contracts) and Wheat (-1,342 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa speculator bets and futures prices hit multi-year highs

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued rise in the Cocoa speculator’s bullish positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week by over +20,000 contracts and have gained for two straight weeks as well as for five out of the past seven weeks (total 7-week rise of +38,842 contracts). The Cocoa net positions has now advanced to the highest net speculator position level of the past 160 weeks, dating back to March 3rd of 2020 when positions totaled +73,970 net contracts.

Cocoa’s speculator strength score level is at the top of its 3-year range at 100 percent while its strength score trend (6-weeks) has jumped by 41 percent and illustrates its recent speculator sentiment strength.

The Cocoa futures price has been on a strong bullish run since hitting a bottom in September of 2022. This week marked a third straight week of gains and Cocoa futures touched their highest level since 2017 at over the 2960 threshold.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,785,807	35	181,069	6	-191,616	97	10,547	16
Gold	478,611	26	181,630	57	-201,508	46	19,878	30
Silver	117,395	0	13,361	37	-21,875	67	8,514	14
Copper	211,889	52	-1,545	27	-4,924	69	6,469	59
Palladium	11,514	78	-6,764	3	7,193	98	-429	16
Platinum	57,244	32	10,374	40	-14,781	63	4,407	27
Natural Gas	1,279,180	64	-126,197	22	95,382	78	30,815	53
Brent	159,742	21	-52,506	0	48,569	100	3,937	62
Heating Oil	271,542	25	9,263	44	-26,976	56	17,713	60
Soybeans	723,433	32	161,020	52	-129,321	52	-31,699	19
Corn	1,345,886	20	71,528	39	-12,518	70	-59,010	18
Coffee	200,894	13	16,751	45	-15,709	60	-1,042	0
Sugar	953,477	60	222,829	71	-275,157	24	52,328	73
Wheat	373,926	51	-60,545	11	60,324	90	221	92

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Sugar (71 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (67 percent), Soybeans (52 percent) and Live Cattle (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Cotton (1 percent) and Wheat (11 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.6 percent)
Sugar (70.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (66.3 percent)
Coffee (44.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.6 percent)
Soybeans (52.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (67.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (77.2 percent)
Live Cattle (50.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (56.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.0 percent)
Cotton (1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (70.1 percent)
Wheat (10.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.7 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (41 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-30 percent), Corn (-30 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-28.5 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.7 percent)
Coffee (12.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-24.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-30.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-14.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-40.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-28.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.2 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.6 percent)
Cocoa (41.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.7 percent)
Wheat (-22.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	49.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	71,528	-12,518	-59,010
– Gross Longs:	317,171	661,172	112,429
– Gross Shorts:	245,643	673,690	171,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	70.1	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	30.0	18.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 222,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	66.4	5.6
– Net Position:	222,829	-275,157	52,328
– Gross Longs:	314,608	357,720	106,016
– Gross Shorts:	91,779	632,877	53,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	24.2	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	1.2	14.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	49.1	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.0	5.1
– Net Position:	16,751	-15,709	-1,042
– Gross Longs:	40,112	98,733	9,239
– Gross Shorts:	23,361	114,442	10,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	60.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-8.9	-33.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	45.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	63.0	10.8
– Net Position:	161,020	-129,321	-31,699
– Gross Longs:	204,717	326,718	46,723
– Gross Shorts:	43,697	456,039	78,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	52.1	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	7.1	17.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	58.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	56.4	6.4
– Net Position:	-7,608	8,146	-538
– Gross Longs:	68,222	270,893	29,443
– Gross Shorts:	75,830	262,747	29,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	24.9	-20.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	38.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.7	6.5
– Net Position:	114,541	-131,095	16,554
– Gross Longs:	138,126	159,905	43,573
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	291,000	27,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	34.2	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.1	30.6	-2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	28.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	49.7	12.8
– Net Position:	64,698	-63,683	-1,015
– Gross Longs:	112,147	88,378	38,033
– Gross Shorts:	47,449	152,061	39,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	44.1	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	35.3	39.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	37.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	27.4	11.1
– Net Position:	-22,003	21,983	20
– Gross Longs:	64,990	82,478	24,503
– Gross Shorts:	86,993	60,495	24,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.7	1.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	50.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	44.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-10,121	11,990	-1,869
– Gross Longs:	50,893	99,934	11,070
– Gross Shorts:	61,014	87,944	12,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	98.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	17.4	-26.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	36.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	53.7	3.4
– Net Position:	61,273	-65,418	4,145
– Gross Longs:	121,238	135,582	16,709
– Gross Shorts:	59,965	201,000	12,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.4	-40.7	-6.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	35.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	19.3	9.6
– Net Position:	-60,545	60,324	221
– Gross Longs:	101,707	132,616	36,122
– Gross Shorts:	162,252	72,292	35,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	90.0	91.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	20.7	17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

26 Mar

Currency Speculators drop their Canadian Dollar bets fall to 218-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (8,449 contracts) with the EuroFX (4,886 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,668 contracts), Australian Dollar (1,632 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (387 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-25,106 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-14,597 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,042 contracts), the British Pound (-3,184 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,414 contracts) and Bitcoin (-519 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

CAD bets fall to 218-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative CAD positions fell this week by over -25,000 contracts and have now declined in five out of the past seven weeks. This recent bearishness has brought the overall net position (currently at -56,821 contracts) to the lowest level in the past 218 weeks, dating back all the way to January 15th of 2019. The CAD speculator strength score (range from 0 to 100) is currently at 0.0 percent while the 6-week speculator strength trend is at -22 percent.

The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend to start 2023 with the CAD futures (front month) price sitting currently at 0.7287. The CAD futures opened 2023 around the 0.7382 exchange rate and reached its highest level in late January at 0.7541 before trending lower.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,819	31	14,144	49	-16,708	49	2,564	45
EUR	737,437	70	144,842	74	-191,171	26	46,329	53
GBP	190,796	31	-20,498	51	25,506	51	-5,008	48
JPY	169,188	31	-66,345	28	72,484	71	-6,139	41
CHF	35,837	21	-7,297	35	12,611	66	-5,314	40
CAD	178,185	49	-56,821	0	64,449	100	-7,628	6
AUD	151,836	50	-38,459	49	50,554	57	-12,095	23
NZD	32,179	13	-8,783	30	8,896	67	-113	50
MXN	222,130	45	51,530	88	-56,413	13	4,883	86
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,222	30	24,857	67	-30,775	27	5,918	100
Bitcoin	14,049	70	-621	66	-103	0	724	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (67 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the British Pound (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (28 percent), New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) and the Swiss Franc (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.9 percent)
EuroFX (74.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (54.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (87.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (98.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (75.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (73 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent), the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) and the British Pound (-5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-23 percent), Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (8.5 percent)
Bitcoin (9.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (29.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	4.0	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	53.4	6.8
– Net Position:	14,144	-16,708	2,564
– Gross Longs:	26,258	1,338	4,864
– Gross Shorts:	12,114	18,046	2,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	49.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-1.9	-7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 144,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	56.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	82.6	5.6
– Net Position:	144,842	-191,171	46,329
– Gross Longs:	215,825	417,802	87,688
– Gross Shorts:	70,983	608,973	41,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.9	-0.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-20,498	25,506	-5,008
– Gross Longs:	28,652	129,030	23,376
– Gross Shorts:	49,150	103,524	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	51.4	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	-4.0	24.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -66,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.3	79.4	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	36.6	18.0
– Net Position:	-66,345	72,484	-6,139
– Gross Longs:	7,255	134,389	24,336
– Gross Shorts:	73,600	61,905	30,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	19.1	-3.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	54.6	27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	19.4	42.7
– Net Position:	-7,297	12,611	-5,314
– Gross Longs:	4,853	19,555	9,978
– Gross Shorts:	12,150	6,944	15,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	65.8	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.0	-3.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	71.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	35.6	21.0
– Net Position:	-56,821	64,449	-7,628
– Gross Longs:	18,812	127,798	29,717
– Gross Shorts:	75,633	63,349	37,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	5.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	22.1	-19.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	57.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	24.2	19.8
– Net Position:	-38,459	50,554	-12,095
– Gross Longs:	41,183	87,354	17,905
– Gross Shorts:	79,642	36,800	30,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	56.6	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	20.8	-42.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	67.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	39.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-8,783	8,896	-113
– Gross Longs:	6,765	21,576	3,392
– Gross Shorts:	15,548	12,680	3,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	67.5	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	45.6	3.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	50.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	76.3	1.0
– Net Position:	51,530	-56,413	4,883
– Gross Longs:	101,899	113,013	7,110
– Gross Shorts:	50,369	169,426	2,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	13.0	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.6	-68.9	2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	17.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	90.4	2.9
– Net Position:	24,857	-30,775	5,918
– Gross Longs:	27,681	7,401	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	2,824	38,176	1,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	5.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	26.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	4.7	41.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	3.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.7	3.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-621	-103	724
– Gross Longs:	10,851	429	1,450
– Gross Shorts:	11,472	532	726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	54.5	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-29.8	2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 Mar

COT Metals Speculators pushed their Gold bullish bets to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (18,274 contracts) with Silver (4,681 contracts) and Copper (1,805 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,047 contracts) and Palladium (-550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets on the rise

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The Gold position has gone from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a new 7-week high at a total of +158,605 contracts this week with the five-week total of speculator bets showing a gain of +53,076 contracts. The speculator strength score (0 to 100 range) for Gold has risen to 47 percent while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has shown a rise of 13 percent.

The Gold futures price closed below the $1,995 price level this week after touching its highest point in just about a year over the $2,014.00 threshold on Monday. Gold has gained over 20 percent since its recent low levels in early November that saw the price fall to approximately $1,618.30.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30

Strength Scores led by Gold & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Gold (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Platinum (38 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (1 percent) and Copper (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (23.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.5 percent)
Copper (17.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.8 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.0 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.8 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for metals.

Palladium (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-40.7 percent)
Copper (-13.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.1 percent)
Platinum (-2.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-12.8 percent)
Palladium (-26.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 158,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	25.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.0	4.8
– Net Position:	158,605	-183,568	24,963
– Gross Longs:	237,891	121,678	47,624
– Gross Shorts:	79,286	305,246	22,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	53.1	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-11.8	2.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	40.9	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	51.5	11.0
– Net Position:	3,462	-12,681	9,219
– Gross Longs:	41,325	48,685	22,328
– Gross Shorts:	37,863	61,366	13,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	78.5	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	20.6	-38.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	46.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	43.1	6.3
– Net Position:	-12,351	7,536	4,815
– Gross Longs:	51,095	94,353	17,564
– Gross Shorts:	63,446	86,817	12,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	79.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	15.9	-24.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	39.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	62.8	4.6
– Net Position:	9,526	-14,141	4,615
– Gross Longs:	25,199	24,399	7,431
– Gross Shorts:	15,673	38,540	2,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	64.2	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	4.9	-17.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	73.0	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.3	9.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-7,018	7,369	-351
– Gross Longs:	1,633	8,498	1,234
– Gross Shorts:	8,651	1,129	1,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.6	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	25.1	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

26 Mar

COT Bonds Speculators boosting 2-Year Bond bets after record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (67,316 contracts) with the Fed Funds (64,355 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (50,579 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34,396 contracts) and the Eurodollar (23,399 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-74,356 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-63,663 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-436 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

2-Year Bonds bets rising after record low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the rapid improvement of the speculator positioning in the 2-Year Bonds. Large speculative positions for the 2-Year Bond rose this week for a fifth consecutive week and by a total of 232,489 contracts in just the past five weeks. The 2-Year Bond speculator positions hit an all-time record low of -696,686 net contracts on February 14th before starting this recent five-week positive streak that has taken the current net position down to -464,197 contracts. This week’s net position marks the least bearish level of the past nine weeks.

The 2-Year Bond futures price have rebounded sharply over the past month due to a combination of a banking crisis and the sentiment that the Federal Reserve will slow or pause the pace of interest rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the current time, traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May but as the calendar progresses, traders are starting to forecast that the Fed will be cutting rates before the end of this year. Rate cuts would positively effect the bonds markets and especially the 2-Year as it is heavily influenced by Fed policy on the shorter end of the yield curve. This week the 2-Year Bond futures price closed near 103.29 and at the highest close since September.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,779,104	0	-637,971	58	833,869	42	-195,898	61
FedFunds	1,847,792	76	-24,352	37	30,578	64	-6,226	79
2-Year	2,314,664	49	-464,197	30	444,096	70	20,101	65
Long T-Bond	1,235,097	67	-99,413	52	43,617	26	55,796	100
10-Year	4,155,764	76	-571,029	7	540,067	79	30,962	91
5-Year	4,350,302	97	-631,568	12	626,445	83	5,123	82

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (58 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (52 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
Eurodollar (57.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.1 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (10 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (5.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.3 percent)
Eurodollar (10.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.4 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -637,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	66.8	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	49.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-637,971	833,869	-195,898
– Gross Longs:	334,819	3,193,023	251,700
– Gross Shorts:	972,790	2,359,154	447,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	41.5	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.5	9.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,355 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	74.9	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,352	30,578	-6,226
– Gross Longs:	161,900	1,414,738	41,466
– Gross Shorts:	186,252	1,384,160	47,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	63.6	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.7	8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -464,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 67,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -531,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-464,197	444,096	20,101
– Gross Longs:	146,530	1,959,237	188,296
– Gross Shorts:	610,727	1,515,141	168,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	69.7	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-24.0	-12.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -631,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -74,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -557,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	82.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	68.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-631,568	626,445	5,123
– Gross Longs:	389,000	3,586,593	335,724
– Gross Shorts:	1,020,568	2,960,148	330,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	82.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-1.4	-6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -571,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -507,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	80.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-571,029	540,067	30,962
– Gross Longs:	379,104	3,329,656	372,551
– Gross Shorts:	950,133	2,789,589	341,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	79.3	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-12.7	24.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 34,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	63.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-158,126	218,538	-60,412
– Gross Longs:	153,805	1,224,366	176,050
– Gross Shorts:	311,931	1,005,828	236,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	81.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	-3.9	29.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 50,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	74.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-99,413	43,617	55,796
– Gross Longs:	102,678	959,632	169,332
– Gross Shorts:	202,091	916,015	113,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	26.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-36.2	16.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -443,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -443,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	84.6	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	57.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-443,962	391,927	52,035
– Gross Longs:	62,308	1,206,968	157,069
– Gross Shorts:	506,270	815,041	105,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.1	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	4.6	14.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

26 Mar

COT Large Speculators have dropped their Corn bullish bets to near 130-week lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Coffee & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (15,699 contracts) with Coffee (6,386 contracts), Wheat (6,111 contracts), Cocoa (5,827 contracts) and Soybeans (3,793 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-25,773 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-24,378 contracts), Sugar (-20,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,936 contracts), Cotton (-8,794 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-1,481 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent sharp decreases in the Corn speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn have been in somewhat of a free-fall over the past five weeks (despite this week’s gain) as Corn bets have dropped for four out of the past five weeks and by a total of -245,236 contracts over that time-frame. The speculator positioning have sharply declined from a total of +304,712 contracts on February 14th to a total of just +59,476 contracts through Tuesday.

The last two weeks marked the first time that net positions have been under +100,000 contracts since September of 2020, a span of about 130 weeks. Corn’s speculator strength score level has dipped to 37.6 percent while its 6-week strength score trend has illuminated its recent weakness with a -28.5 percent trend score.

Corn’s futures price has risen for the past two weeks but is off the lofty heights of 2022 when prices reached highs in the 750-800 range. This week Corn closed out near the 644.00 level after bouncing off of support at the 600 level over the previous few weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,791,902	35	154,341	0	-178,904	100	24,563	40
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30
Natural Gas	1,283,037	65	-144,681	14	113,440	85	31,241	54
Brent	149,302	11	-46,349	20	43,543	78	2,806	47
Heating Oil	279,105	28	9,829	45	-22,477	60	12,648	42
Soybeans	696,280	26	171,787	57	-141,848	48	-29,939	22
Corn	1,349,372	21	59,476	38	3,793	72	-63,269	15
Coffee	201,018	13	18,696	47	-17,673	58	-1,023	0
Sugar	929,418	55	210,656	66	-258,522	29	47,866	67
Wheat	370,297	49	-59,203	12	59,325	89	-122	90

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (77 percent) and Cocoa (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (66 percent), Soybeans (57 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (37.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (35.6 percent)
Sugar (66.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.4 percent)
Coffee (46.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (77.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (90.0 percent)
Live Cattle (56.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (75.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (67.7 percent)
Wheat (11.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.6 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (21 percent) and Coffee (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and represent the only two positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-28 percent), Cotton (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lowest trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-28.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-32.3 percent)
Sugar (-8.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (17.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.6 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-28.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	49.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.2	13.1
– Net Position:	59,476	3,793	-63,269
– Gross Longs:	327,137	667,983	113,622
– Gross Shorts:	267,661	664,190	176,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	72.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	29.6	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 210,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 231,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	65.9	5.7
– Net Position:	210,656	-258,522	47,866
– Gross Longs:	302,634	353,905	101,185
– Gross Shorts:	91,978	612,427	53,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	29.0	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.8	1.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	49.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	58.3	4.2
– Net Position:	18,696	-17,673	-1,023
– Gross Longs:	43,072	99,606	7,452
– Gross Shorts:	24,376	117,279	8,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	58.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-14.6	-24.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 171,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	64.9	11.2
– Net Position:	171,787	-141,848	-29,939
– Gross Longs:	210,762	310,325	47,727
– Gross Shorts:	38,975	452,173	77,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	47.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.8	18.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	56.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-567	1,924	-1,357
– Gross Longs:	74,741	259,796	29,346
– Gross Shorts:	75,308	257,872	30,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.2	-26.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 133,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	36.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.2	71.8	6.8
– Net Position:	133,343	-150,414	17,071
– Gross Longs:	155,660	157,931	46,260
– Gross Shorts:	22,317	308,345	29,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	24.0	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	13.9	6.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 69,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	28.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	49.4	12.4
– Net Position:	69,700	-67,647	-2,053
– Gross Longs:	118,518	88,370	37,174
– Gross Shorts:	48,818	156,017	39,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	39.2	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	25.5	23.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,717 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	28.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-17,653	17,350	303
– Gross Longs:	63,404	80,723	25,180
– Gross Shorts:	81,057	63,373	24,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.4	-1.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	50.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-11,582	14,226	-2,644
– Gross Longs:	51,426	99,630	11,525
– Gross Shorts:	63,008	85,404	14,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	19.5	-32.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.5	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.8	3.1
– Net Position:	37,846	-42,636	4,790
– Gross Longs:	96,676	143,115	15,642
– Gross Shorts:	58,830	185,751	10,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.7	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.8	40.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	35.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	19.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-59,203	59,325	-122
– Gross Longs:	105,293	133,069	35,982
– Gross Shorts:	164,496	73,744	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	89.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.7	10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

26 Mar

COT Stock Market Speculators raised their SP500-Mini bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,856 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,438 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,352 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-82,661 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19,234 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the bearish bets in the S&P500-Mini speculative positions. The large speculator position in S&P500-Mini futures dropped this week by over -80,000 contracts and fell for the second time in three weeks. The S&P500-Mini bets have now been in a bearish net position for the past 40 straight weeks, dating back to June 14th of 2022.

The current overall speculator level is currently at a highly bearish net position level of -202,480 speculator contracts with a bearish-extreme strength score level (18.7 percent) and while the 6-week strength trend actually posted a small gain of 2.8 percent (see strength scores further below).

The S&P500 stock futures price has been very resilient over the past month with a combination of rate hikes and a banking crisis not being able to knock the price from its short-term uptrend that started in October. The S&P500 stock futures price closed the week right around the psychological level of 4000.00 after making small gains in the past two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,149,005	12	-202,480	19	266,455	84	-63,975	13
Nikkei 225	10,419	0	-930	73	795	34	135	30
Nasdaq-Mini	214,876	22	-5,120	72	16,858	37	-11,738	31
DowJones-Mini	81,747	41	-22,148	17	30,063	99	-7,915	0
VIX	330,622	57	-49,649	78	52,093	20	-2,444	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	34,599	9	3,577	45	8,390	34	-11,967	63

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (19 percent) are the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (73.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (50.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent), the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) and the VIX (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (19.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (5.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (18.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (12.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	53.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-49,649	52,093	-2,444
– Gross Longs:	58,803	175,971	26,589
– Gross Shorts:	108,452	123,878	29,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.8	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-12.9	20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -202,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -82,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	65.8	12.6
– Net Position:	-202,480	266,455	-63,975
– Gross Longs:	203,125	1,681,318	205,770
– Gross Shorts:	405,605	1,414,863	269,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	84.3	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	7.8	-14.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	67.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	30.7	22.6
– Net Position:	-22,148	30,063	-7,915
– Gross Longs:	15,604	55,161	10,581
– Gross Shorts:	37,752	25,098	18,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	98.9	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.8	45.9	-30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	59.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	51.3	20.2
– Net Position:	-5,120	16,858	-11,738
– Gross Longs:	53,063	127,004	31,697
– Gross Shorts:	58,183	110,146	43,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	36.9	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-8.2	6.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -44,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	85.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	76.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,988	44,694	294
– Gross Longs:	40,762	411,188	22,631
– Gross Shorts:	85,750	366,494	22,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	55.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-11.9	-27.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.6	26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.9	25.0
– Net Position:	-930	795	135
– Gross Longs:	2,200	5,476	2,743
– Gross Shorts:	3,130	4,681	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	34.0	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-13.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	87.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-14,077	7,542	6,535
– Gross Longs:	30,891	348,705	8,454
– Gross Shorts:	44,968	341,163	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	68.1	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.8	2.5

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