29 Apr

Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

April 29, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,298 contracts) with Silver (4,008 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-25,976 contracts), Gold (-4,629 contracts), Steel (-785 contracts) and Palladium (-240 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators increase Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rise in bullish bets for the Platinum speculative positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose by over +5,000 contracts this week and are higher for the fourth time in the past five weeks as well as higher in six out of the past nine weeks.

A total of +20,091 contracts have been added to the net speculator position over the past five-week period, bringing the current standing to the most bullish level in twenty weeks, dating back to January 10th. Overall, the Platinum positioning has now been in bullish territory for thirty-two straight weeks.

The Platinum futures price recently hit its highest level in over a year with a high of $1102.00 on April 23rd. This marked the best level since March 9th of 2022 when prices reached all the way to $1197.00.

This week, however, Platinum gave back some of its gains and prices fell for the first time in the past five weeks and closed at the $1090.10 threshold. Despite this week’s decline, Platinum overall has risen by over twenty percent since it’s most recent low of $904 in February.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold473,20924185,26459-211,9284226,66447
Silver149,6923730,60362-41,5234410,92027
Copper202,42244-17,042138,304808,73874
Palladium12,27088-5,877116,30990-43216
Platinum72,1257929,61784-34,316234,69931

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (84 percent) and Silver (62 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) and Copper (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (58.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (60.6 percent)
Silver (61.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.2 percent)
Copper (13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.4 percent)
Platinum (83.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.7 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (57.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

 

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (45 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (19.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.2 percent)
Silver (45.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.1 percent)
Copper (-2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.9 percent)
Platinum (44.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.3 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (-2.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 185,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.526.310.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.471.15.2
– Net Position:185,264-211,92826,664
– Gross Longs:253,186124,51851,048
– Gross Shorts:67,922336,44624,384
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.642.146.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.8-21.829.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.230.716.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.758.48.9
– Net Position:30,603-41,52310,920
– Gross Longs:66,14545,90724,230
– Gross Shorts:35,54287,43013,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.943.627.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.4-39.12.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.345.610.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.741.56.1
– Net Position:-17,0428,3048,738
– Gross Longs:57,22492,29421,052
– Gross Shorts:74,26683,99012,314
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.280.573.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.61.010.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.225.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.173.04.0
– Net Position:29,617-34,3164,699
– Gross Longs:41,24018,3027,597
– Gross Shorts:11,62352,6182,898
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.3 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.922.531.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.0-41.312.6

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.668.19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.516.712.9
– Net Position:-5,8776,309-432
– Gross Longs:1,4288,3611,152
– Gross Shorts:7,3052,0521,584
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.390.115.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.5-5.75.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.977.90.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.459.70.6
– Net Position:-5,5645,49965
– Gross Longs:3,59523,482244
– Gross Shorts:9,15917,983179
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.043.027.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.23.5-58.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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