COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 61

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,298 contracts) with Silver (4,008 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-25,976 contracts), Gold (-4,629 contracts), Steel (-785 contracts) and Palladium (-240 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators increase Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rise in bullish bets for the Platinum speculative positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose by over +5,000 contracts this week and are higher for the fourth time in the past five weeks as well as higher in six out of the past nine weeks.

A total of +20,091 contracts have been added to the net speculator position over the past five-week period, bringing the current standing to the most bullish level in twenty weeks, dating back to January 10th. Overall, the Platinum positioning has now been in bullish territory for thirty-two straight weeks.

The Platinum futures price recently hit its highest level in over a year with a high of $1102.00 on April 23rd. This marked the best level since March 9th of 2022 when prices reached all the way to $1197.00.

This week, however, Platinum gave back some of its gains and prices fell for the first time in the past five weeks and closed at the $1090.10 threshold. Despite this week’s decline, Platinum overall has risen by over twenty percent since it’s most recent low of $904 in February.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	473,209	24	185,264	59	-211,928	42	26,664	47
Silver	149,692	37	30,603	62	-41,523	44	10,920	27
Copper	202,422	44	-17,042	13	8,304	80	8,738	74
Palladium	12,270	88	-5,877	11	6,309	90	-432	16
Platinum	72,125	79	29,617	84	-34,316	23	4,699	31

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) and Copper (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (58.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (60.6 percent)
Silver (61.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.2 percent)
Copper (13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.4 percent)
Platinum (83.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.7 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (57.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (45 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (19.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.2 percent)
Silver (45.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.1 percent)
Copper (-2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.9 percent)
Platinum (44.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.3 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (-2.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 185,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	26.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	71.1	5.2
– Net Position:	185,264	-211,928	26,664
– Gross Longs:	253,186	124,518	51,048
– Gross Shorts:	67,922	336,446	24,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	42.1	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-21.8	29.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	30.7	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	58.4	8.9
– Net Position:	30,603	-41,523	10,920
– Gross Longs:	66,145	45,907	24,230
– Gross Shorts:	35,542	87,430	13,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.6	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.4	-39.1	2.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	45.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	41.5	6.1
– Net Position:	-17,042	8,304	8,738
– Gross Longs:	57,224	92,294	21,052
– Gross Shorts:	74,266	83,990	12,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	80.5	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	1.0	10.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	25.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	73.0	4.0
– Net Position:	29,617	-34,316	4,699
– Gross Longs:	41,240	18,302	7,597
– Gross Shorts:	11,623	52,618	2,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	22.5	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.0	-41.3	12.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	68.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	16.7	12.9
– Net Position:	-5,877	6,309	-432
– Gross Longs:	1,428	8,361	1,152
– Gross Shorts:	7,305	2,052	1,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	90.1	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.7	5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.9	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	59.7	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,564	5,499	65
– Gross Longs:	3,595	23,482	244
– Gross Shorts:	9,159	17,983	179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.0	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.5	-58.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Apr

Bonds Speculators push their 5-Year Bond bets to most bearish on record

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (28,607 contracts) with the Fed Funds (28,111 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (19,560 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,667 contracts), the Eurodollar (8,395 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-114,786 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-89,967 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-60,180 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators push their 5-Year Bond bets to most bearish on record

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the historic weakness in the 5-Year Bonds speculator net contracts. Large speculative 5-Year Bond positions dropped sharply this week by over -114,000 net contracts, marking the largest decline in 20 weeks and have now decreased in four out of the past six weeks. The 5-Year net positions have fallen by a total of -312,076 contracts over the past six-week period, going from a total of -557,212 contracts on March 14th to a total net position of -869,288 contracts this week.

This bearishness has pushed the net position to the most bearish level in history, according to CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The previous record bearish position was a total of -867,556 contracts that took place on August 7th of 2018 and coincided with an almost exact bottom in the 5-Year Bond futures price (see image below comparing the price on dates of record bearish levels).

The 5-Year Bond futures price has not followed along lately with the extreme bearishness of the speculators in this case and has potentially already bottomed with a low of 105.14 in October and a more recent dip to 106.02 in March. The 5-Year futures closed this week higher near the 109.24 level and about 3.25 percent higher than the most recent low in March. In terms of bond yields, the 5-Year yield is currently trading at the 3.48 percent level and also down from a recent high of 4.37 percent in March. Only time will tell if the 5-Year Bond price has bottomed (and yields have topped out) with the future paths of the US Federal Reserve and the US economy likely weighing heavily on the future direction.

Chart by TradingView

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	604,722	0	-42,836	73	52,682	23	-9,846	97
FedFunds	1,909,067	81	-90,608	28	103,006	72	-12,398	67
2-Year	2,719,441	85	-546,307	19	486,757	76	59,550	84
Long T-Bond	1,193,358	55	-97,368	53	26,698	20	70,670	100
10-Year	4,362,222	90	-740,261	0	685,216	95	55,045	97
5-Year	4,576,091	100	-869,288	0	837,209	100	32,079	90

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (53 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (36 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (46.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Eurodollar (72.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (36.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.8 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bond (-32.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-31 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (15.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-32.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-25.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (17.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
Eurodollar (15.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (23.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	62.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	53.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-42,836	52,682	-9,846
– Gross Longs:	162,210	375,924	57,705
– Gross Shorts:	205,046	323,242	67,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	23.0	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-20.7	52.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -716,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -89,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -626,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	64.0	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	56.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-716,355	722,508	-6,153
– Gross Longs:	1,351,648	6,105,246	41,555
– Gross Shorts:	2,068,003	5,382,738	47,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	63.9	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.3	18.9	84.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -90,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	79.7	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	74.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-90,608	103,006	-12,398
– Gross Longs:	70,441	1,520,816	41,850
– Gross Shorts:	161,049	1,417,810	54,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	72.4	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-3.9	66.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -546,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -574,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	81.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	63.1	6.0
– Net Position:	-546,307	486,757	59,550
– Gross Longs:	265,711	2,203,465	221,675
– Gross Shorts:	812,018	1,716,708	162,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	75.8	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.4	18.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -869,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -114,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -754,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	65.8	7.2
– Net Position:	-869,288	837,209	32,079
– Gross Longs:	307,640	3,846,432	359,672
– Gross Shorts:	1,176,928	3,009,223	327,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	27.5	16.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -740,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -60,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -680,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	79.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	63.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-740,261	685,216	55,045
– Gross Longs:	389,728	3,462,741	400,768
– Gross Shorts:	1,129,989	2,777,525	345,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.2	96.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	11.8	30.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -190,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -206,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	80.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	63.2	14.9
– Net Position:	-190,916	269,304	-78,388
– Gross Longs:	137,531	1,281,853	160,380
– Gross Shorts:	328,447	1,012,549	238,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	91.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	11.5	-32.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -97,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.9	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	75.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,368	26,698	70,670
– Gross Longs:	81,222	929,608	176,053
– Gross Shorts:	178,590	902,910	105,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	20.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-30.1	23.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -397,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	57.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-397,985	347,575	50,410
– Gross Longs:	83,053	1,171,201	170,666
– Gross Shorts:	481,038	823,626	120,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	76.7	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-23.2	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,043 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,457 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-19,010 contracts), the VIX (-18,089 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,041 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-1,276 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-16 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,265,794	20	-363,267	0	386,640	100	-23,373	22
Nikkei 225	12,374	6	-2,572	61	1,806	41	766	38
Nasdaq-Mini	247,654	39	5,130	78	3,469	29	-8,599	37
DowJones-Mini	99,217	62	-25,673	8	32,600	100	-6,927	10
VIX	370,163	75	-81,850	60	82,906	35	-1,056	90
Nikkei 225 Yen	44,218	29	5,466	51	15,711	54	-21,177	35

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (61 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (8.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (76.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (40.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (21.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (23.9 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for the stock markets this week.

The S&P500-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-29 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-40.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-22.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-30.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-1.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (4.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-29.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -81,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	54.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	31.8	7.1
– Net Position:	-81,850	82,906	-1,056
– Gross Longs:	72,595	200,747	25,269
– Gross Shorts:	154,445	117,841	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	35.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	12.0	19.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -363,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	77.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	60.1	11.6
– Net Position:	-363,267	386,640	-23,373
– Gross Longs:	207,333	1,747,428	240,239
– Gross Shorts:	570,600	1,360,788	263,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.6	30.1	8.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	63.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	30.9	18.4
– Net Position:	-25,673	32,600	-6,927
– Gross Longs:	22,829	63,281	11,297
– Gross Shorts:	48,502	30,681	18,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.1	100.0	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.3	-2.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	57.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	56.2	17.7
– Net Position:	5,130	3,469	-8,599
– Gross Longs:	64,807	142,707	35,188
– Gross Shorts:	59,677	139,238	43,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	28.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-19.4	37.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	83.3	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	72.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-52,119	57,566	-5,447
– Gross Longs:	59,738	428,832	20,133
– Gross Shorts:	111,857	371,266	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	62.8	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.6	-16.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	47.4	32.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	32.8	26.3
– Net Position:	-2,572	1,806	766
– Gross Longs:	2,485	5,867	4,022
– Gross Shorts:	5,057	4,061	3,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	41.2	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	3.0	-4.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.5	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	86.4	1.2
– Net Position:	-18,693	12,490	6,203
– Gross Longs:	28,394	359,980	11,143
– Gross Shorts:	47,087	347,490	4,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	74.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	41.6	-52.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the speculator level at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score totaled 37.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 61,714 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,359 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 99.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.6 this week. The speculator position registered -2,059 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 1,851 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,034 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 89.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 279,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 10,356 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 89.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week.

The net speculator position was 54,128 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,043 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -869,288 net contracts with a sharp drop of -114,786 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25.3 this week. The speculator position was -740,261 net contracts this week with a decrease of -60,180 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -27,022 net contracts this week with a nudge higher by 135 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with a speculator level is at 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0.3 this week. The speculator position was -190,916 net contracts this week with a gain of 15,667 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -5,413 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,883 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to highest since March 2020

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (10,356 contracts) with Cocoa (2,359 contracts) and Lean Hogs (135 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-80,988 contracts), Soybeans (-73,414 contracts), Wheat (-12,652 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,017 contracts), Cotton (-9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,806 contracts), Coffee (-409 contracts) and Live Cattle (-38 contracts).

Cocoa bullish bets hit highest since March 2020

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the multi-year high in bullish bets of the Cocoa speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks but the boost pushed the overall net position to its highest level since 2020. This week’s gain brought the Cocoa speculator net position to a total of +61,714 contracts which marks the most bullish level of the past 164 weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Cocoa trader sentiment and futures prices have been pushed higher recently due to increased demand and because of supply issues arising out of Africa. Nigeria’s exports as well as the Ivory Coast’s exports have been on the decline while dryer weather conditions have also hampered production on the continent. Meanwhile, the demand for Cocoa is being forecast to grow approximately 5 percent annually for the next decade.

The Cocoa futures price fell modestly this week but has been on a strong bullish trend since hitting a recent low in September. Last week, the futures price hit its highest level since 2016 right around the 2995 price before retreating this week to 2937.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,826,195	38	236,438	20	-271,197	79	34,759	53
Gold	473,209	24	185,264	59	-211,928	42	26,664	47
Silver	149,692	37	30,603	62	-41,523	44	10,920	27
Copper	202,422	44	-17,042	13	8,304	80	8,738	74
Palladium	12,270	88	-5,877	11	6,309	90	-432	16
Platinum	72,125	79	29,617	84	-34,316	23	4,699	31
Natural Gas	1,274,536	63	-136,150	18	105,774	82	30,376	52
Brent	140,321	6	-40,564	26	36,713	73	3,851	61
Heating Oil	268,225	23	7,593	40	-16,018	81	8,425	28
Soybeans	630,935	12	104,096	30	-76,491	70	-27,605	26
Corn	1,242,943	7	24,648	33	34,700	77	-59,348	18
Coffee	192,927	7	36,592	65	-37,705	38	1,113	26
Sugar	959,708	61	279,528	90	-335,640	7	56,112	76
Wheat	366,390	47	-83,188	0	75,369	100	7,819	100

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (90 percent), Soybean Meal (66 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and the Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.5 percent)
Sugar (89.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.1 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.4 percent)
Soybeans (30.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (58.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (75.6 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.1 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (97.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (9.7 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (38 percent) and Coffee (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-24 percent), Lean Hogs (-19 percent) and Wheat (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.3 percent)
Sugar (17.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.1 percent)
Coffee (24.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.5 percent)
Soybeans (-25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-24.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.5 percent)
Cotton (-2.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.1 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.9 percent)
Wheat (-13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -80,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	51.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	49.0	13.5
– Net Position:	24,648	34,700	-59,348
– Gross Longs:	297,251	644,207	109,017
– Gross Shorts:	272,603	609,507	168,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	76.8	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.1	3.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 279,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 269,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	39.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	74.5	4.8
– Net Position:	279,528	-335,640	56,112
– Gross Longs:	354,581	379,027	101,894
– Gross Shorts:	75,053	714,667	45,782
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	7.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-17.1	10.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	42.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	61.9	3.3
– Net Position:	36,592	-37,705	1,113
– Gross Longs:	58,266	81,704	7,412
– Gross Shorts:	21,674	119,409	6,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	38.4	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-24.6	5.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 104,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -73,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	49.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	61.1	11.5
– Net Position:	104,096	-76,491	-27,605
– Gross Longs:	160,083	309,256	45,031
– Gross Shorts:	55,987	385,747	72,636
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	70.4	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	18.7	16.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	59.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	55.4	6.8
– Net Position:	-18,257	20,425	-2,168
– Gross Longs:	73,661	280,735	29,738
– Gross Shorts:	91,918	260,310	31,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.6	-7.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	39.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	67.8	6.6
– Net Position:	111,252	-126,822	15,570
– Gross Longs:	139,164	171,929	44,665
– Gross Shorts:	27,912	298,751	29,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	36.4	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	25.9	-13.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	25.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	51.7	12.4
– Net Position:	102,034	-92,450	-9,584
– Gross Longs:	156,838	88,281	33,814
– Gross Shorts:	54,804	180,731	43,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	9.1	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-5.3	-12.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	37.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	26.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-27,022	23,686	3,336
– Gross Longs:	60,383	84,742	28,143
– Gross Shorts:	87,405	61,056	24,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	98.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	16.5	19.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	49.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	45.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-5,413	6,321	-908
– Gross Longs:	52,624	82,680	10,665
– Gross Shorts:	58,037	76,359	11,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	94.6	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.4	3.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	31.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	51.8	3.3
– Net Position:	61,714	-66,251	4,537
– Gross Longs:	135,292	99,730	15,048
– Gross Shorts:	73,578	165,981	10,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-38.2	4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	37.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	17.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-83,188	75,369	7,819
– Gross Longs:	101,941	137,977	43,119
– Gross Shorts:	185,129	62,608	35,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	9.3	26.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

23 Apr

Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,865	34	10,513	42	-11,955	57	1,442	32
EUR	766,374	80	164,361	82	-213,285	18	48,924	57
GBP	224,536	52	1,302	70	-7,995	29	6,693	71
JPY	177,507	33	-56,869	34	61,645	66	-4,776	44
CHF	40,870	38	-4,720	42	3,386	51	1,334	62
CAD	148,638	29	-46,233	11	42,194	85	4,039	32
AUD	159,708	57	-42,356	46	50,557	57	-8,201	32
NZD	33,377	16	-3,904	43	3,717	55	187	54
MXN	267,698	61	56,171	91	-60,884	10	4,713	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,883	42	13,596	53	-14,778	46	1,182	53
Bitcoin	15,385	76	-489	68	-176	0	665	28

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	9.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	44.0	10.0
– Net Position:	10,513	-11,955	1,442
– Gross Longs:	25,192	3,371	4,940
– Gross Shorts:	14,679	15,326	3,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.8	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-17.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.3	5.4
– Net Position:	164,361	-213,285	48,924
– Gross Longs:	242,369	417,586	90,436
– Gross Shorts:	78,008	630,871	41,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.6	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	60.4	10.7
– Net Position:	1,302	-7,995	6,693
– Gross Longs:	53,834	127,731	30,745
– Gross Shorts:	52,532	135,726	24,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	28.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-28.5	45.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	74.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	40.1	18.0
– Net Position:	-56,869	61,645	-4,776
– Gross Longs:	15,661	132,747	27,108
– Gross Shorts:	72,530	71,102	31,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	65.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-13.6	19.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	44.4	37.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	36.1	33.9
– Net Position:	-4,720	3,386	1,334
– Gross Longs:	5,347	18,138	15,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,067	14,752	13,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	50.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-18.9	41.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	64.9	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.5	19.2
– Net Position:	-46,233	42,194	4,039
– Gross Longs:	17,806	96,421	32,592
– Gross Shorts:	64,039	54,227	28,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	84.9	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	1.9	31.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	23.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-42,356	50,557	-8,201
– Gross Longs:	44,610	88,628	20,500
– Gross Shorts:	86,966	38,071	28,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	56.6	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	10.9	7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	55.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-3,904	3,717	187
– Gross Longs:	10,876	18,474	3,757
– Gross Shorts:	14,780	14,757	3,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	55.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	17.7	23.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	45.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	67.7	1.0
– Net Position:	56,171	-60,884	4,713
– Gross Longs:	139,289	120,371	7,352
– Gross Shorts:	83,118	181,255	2,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	9.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	66.2	-61.5	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	18.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	46.5	6.4
– Net Position:	13,596	-14,778	1,182
– Gross Longs:	37,991	9,365	4,527
– Gross Shorts:	24,395	24,143	3,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.7	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	3.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	4.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-489	-176	665
– Gross Longs:	11,629	517	1,368
– Gross Shorts:	12,118	693	703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	51.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	-1.1	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Apr

Bonds Speculators drop their 10-Year Treasury bets to a 237-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (598,254 contracts) which, as noted last week, is being phased out and replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 3-Months) contracts. The rise in Eurodollar bets was due to traders closing out their bearish positions while the SOFR 3-Months contracts saw a similar rise in bearish contracts this week.

The other markets with gains this week were the Fed Funds (48,557 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,656 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (7,479 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (277 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-466,948 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (-78,073 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-41,044 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,612 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bond Speculators drop bets to 237-week low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the weakness in the 10-Year Bonds speculator net contracts. Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions fell this week by over -40,000 net contracts and have declined for three straight weeks as well as in four out of the past five weeks. The 10-Year Bond net position has now seen a total of -172,715 contracts added to the existing bearish standing over this past five week period.

The 10-Year positions have now fallen (currently at -680,081 contracts) to the most bearish level since October 2nd of 2018, a span of 237 weeks from when the net position totaled -740,192 contracts.

Overall, the 10-Year speculator net positions have now been in a continuous bearish level for 80 straight weeks, dating back to October 12th of 2021 when the net position flipped from bullish to bearish. Since that time, the net position has steadily increased in bearishness (save for a couple of short pullbacks) as the sentiment for bonds has been decimated due to the US Federal Reserve raising their benchmark interest rate (to fight inflation). Despite the current outlook (Fed Rate Tool) that the Federal Reserve will likely only raise the interest rate one more time in May, speculators have continued to raise their bearish bets for the 10-Year.

The 10-Year front-month futures price, meanwhile, has not dropped back to the lowest levels of this cycle. The price closed at 114.15 this week and is almost 5 percent higher than the lows of October when prices dropped to the 108 levels.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	603,310	0	-51,231	73	47,522	23	3,709	100
FedFunds	1,728,594	66	-118,719	25	130,563	76	-11,844	68
2-Year	2,642,314	78	-574,914	16	520,558	81	54,356	82
Long T-Bond	1,185,802	54	-116,928	47	46,235	27	70,693	100
10-Year	4,393,559	92	-680,081	0	638,740	90	41,341	94
5-Year	4,472,642	99	-754,502	3	716,633	93	37,869	91

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (41.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
Eurodollar (72.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (81.6 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) and the Eurodollar (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (18 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (15.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (0.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-14.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
Eurodollar (23.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 598,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -649,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	60.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	52.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-51,231	47,522	3,709
– Gross Longs:	158,876	365,308	67,086
– Gross Shorts:	210,107	317,786	63,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-27.2	52.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -626,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -466,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	58.3	0.6
– Net Position:	-626,388	627,991	-1,603
– Gross Longs:	1,301,626	6,103,493	54,601
– Gross Shorts:	1,928,014	5,475,502	56,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.3	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-43.7	-0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 48,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	79.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	72.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-118,719	130,563	-11,844
– Gross Longs:	70,694	1,377,903	40,832
– Gross Shorts:	189,413	1,247,340	52,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	75.7	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-15.2	3.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -574,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -78,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -496,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	62.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-574,914	520,558	54,356
– Gross Longs:	227,652	2,173,300	221,790
– Gross Shorts:	802,566	1,652,742	167,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	80.6	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-11.5	18.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -754,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -761,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	84.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	68.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-754,502	716,633	37,869
– Gross Longs:	270,063	3,775,123	366,773
– Gross Shorts:	1,024,565	3,058,490	328,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	93.3	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	-1.9	31.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -680,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -639,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	63.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-680,081	638,740	41,341
– Gross Longs:	473,072	3,439,022	395,955
– Gross Shorts:	1,153,153	2,800,282	354,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	90.1	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	-4.1	39.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -206,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	62.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-206,583	286,593	-80,010
– Gross Longs:	140,107	1,286,225	166,166
– Gross Shorts:	346,690	999,632	246,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-4.4	20.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	79.0	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-116,928	46,235	70,693
– Gross Longs:	69,031	936,757	175,995
– Gross Shorts:	185,959	890,522	105,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	27.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-39.8	40.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -399,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	58.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-399,001	347,521	51,480
– Gross Longs:	78,030	1,176,217	169,143
– Gross Shorts:	477,031	828,696	117,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-23.3	21.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

22 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Sugar bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (14,357 contracts) with Coffee (12,124 contracts), Sugar (9,384 contracts), Cotton (7,749 contracts), Live Cattle (7,456 contracts) and Corn (2,327 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-1,836 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-3,065 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,095 contracts), Wheat (-3,854 contracts) and Cocoa (-558 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued bullish strength in the Sugar speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators have added a total of +58,516 contracts to the net position over the past 4-week period.

The bullish sentiment has now pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in the past 84-weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2021.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level (a 3-year range of speculator positions, on a 0-100 percent scale) has also increased with a score of 86.5 percent this week and up from a score of 83.3 percent last week. Its 6-week trend of strength scores has increased by 10 percent.

The Sugar futures price has also been flying high and touched its highest level since April of 2012 this week. The Sugar front-month futures price has risen for five consecutive weeks and closed at approximately $24.83 on Friday. Sugar futures are now up by over 40 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,913,192	46	244,575	21	-273,247	78	28,672	47
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20
Natural Gas	1,330,947	74	-139,986	16	111,893	84	28,093	47
Brent	146,384	10	-43,322	20	39,827	80	3,495	56
Heating Oil	260,459	20	8,865	43	-24,987	65	16,122	54
Soybeans	683,161	24	177,510	59	-149,491	45	-28,019	25
Corn	1,319,551	17	105,636	44	-41,244	66	-64,392	14
Coffee	190,253	5	37,001	65	-38,309	38	1,308	28
Sugar	961,060	62	269,172	86	-326,198	10	57,026	78
Wheat	378,531	54	-70,536	2	65,243	95	5,293	98

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (86 percent), Soybean Meal (76 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (2 percent) and the Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.2 percent)
Sugar (86.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (83.3 percent)
Coffee (65.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (52.9 percent)
Soybeans (58.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (75.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.1 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (84.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.7 percent)
Cotton (12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (97.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (6 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-21 percent), Lean Hogs (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.1 percent)
Sugar (9.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.4 percent)
Coffee (22.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybeans (-1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-22.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cotton (-1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	48.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	51.3	13.2
– Net Position:	105,636	-41,244	-64,392
– Gross Longs:	340,625	635,232	109,200
– Gross Shorts:	234,989	676,476	173,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	66.0	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 269,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	74.1	5.1
– Net Position:	269,172	-326,198	57,026
– Gross Longs:	340,696	385,588	105,872
– Gross Shorts:	71,524	711,786	48,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	9.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-10.5	10.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	44.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.3	3.8
– Net Position:	37,001	-38,309	1,308
– Gross Longs:	55,542	83,982	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	18,541	122,291	7,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	37.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-22.3	6.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 177,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	43.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	65.2	11.0
– Net Position:	177,510	-149,491	-28,019
– Gross Longs:	219,301	296,149	47,114
– Gross Shorts:	41,791	445,640	75,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	45.1	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-2.8	18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	58.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	57.3	6.1
– Net Position:	-9,451	6,944	2,507
– Gross Longs:	72,093	282,065	31,891
– Gross Shorts:	81,544	275,121	29,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	17.2	6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	36.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	68.7	7.1
– Net Position:	130,269	-146,880	16,611
– Gross Longs:	152,035	165,430	48,978
– Gross Shorts:	21,766	312,310	32,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	25.9	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	25.9	-12.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	25.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	52.6	12.6
– Net Position:	102,072	-92,780	-9,292
– Gross Longs:	155,956	88,017	33,970
– Gross Shorts:	53,884	180,797	43,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.7	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	8.7	-3.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	36.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	26.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-27,157	23,443	3,714
– Gross Longs:	65,671	84,339	29,502
– Gross Shorts:	92,828	60,896	25,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	15.0	19.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.1	6.3
– Net Position:	4,470	-7,229	2,759
– Gross Longs:	55,156	77,142	13,335
– Gross Shorts:	50,686	84,371	10,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	85.5	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.7	15.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	33.3	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	52.7	3.3
– Net Position:	59,355	-64,143	4,788
– Gross Longs:	131,355	110,050	15,617
– Gross Shorts:	72,000	174,193	10,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	1.6	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	4.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	37.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.7	9.7
– Net Position:	-70,536	65,243	5,293
– Gross Longs:	105,806	143,559	42,074
– Gross Shorts:	176,342	78,316	36,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	94.6	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.4	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

22 Apr

Copper Speculator bets go bullish for first time since February

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,237 contracts) with Platinum (10,986 contracts), Silver (2,877 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Steel (329 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a drop of -2,852 contracts on the week.

Copper bets go bullish for first time since February

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the renewed bullishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by over +13,000 contracts this week and are higher for the third time in the past five weeks.

Copper speculative bets have now gained by a total of +23,090 contracts over the past five weeks, going from a bearish net position of -14,156 contracts on March 14th to this week’s net position of +8,934 contracts. This week was the first time that net positions crossed over into bullish territory since February and Copper’s sentiment has been helped out by China’s economic reopening which uses the metal for many types of manufacturing and industry.

The Copper front-month futures price dipped this week but has been higher in the three of the past five weeks, continuing an uptrend since bottoming in July of 2022. Copper futures have gained by approximately 25 percent since that recent bottom in July and closed this week just below the $4.00 per pound major price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Gold (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (60.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.9 percent)
Silver (56.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (36.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.6 percent)
Platinum (71.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.4 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (59.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (58.4 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (49 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (40 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (40.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.0 percent)
Silver (49.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.9 percent)
Copper (14.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (44.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.5 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.7 percent)
Steel (-1.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 189,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 192,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	25.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	70.5	5.0
– Net Position:	189,893	-216,425	26,532
– Gross Longs:	260,061	123,496	50,647
– Gross Shorts:	70,168	339,921	24,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	40.4	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.7	15.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	57.2	8.4
– Net Position:	26,595	-38,656	12,061
– Gross Longs:	62,968	51,891	25,438
– Gross Shorts:	36,373	90,547	13,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	47.1	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.1	-40.0	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	43.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	51.1	5.6
– Net Position:	8,934	-16,280	7,346
– Gross Longs:	67,262	89,131	18,851
– Gross Shorts:	58,328	105,411	11,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	59.6	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-13.0	-8.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	28.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	72.7	5.0
– Net Position:	24,319	-28,202	3,883
– Gross Longs:	35,028	18,147	7,076
– Gross Shorts:	10,709	46,349	3,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	35.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-40.0	2.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	67.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.7	15.5	13.5
– Net Position:	-5,637	6,151	-514
– Gross Longs:	1,912	7,988	1,084
– Gross Shorts:	7,549	1,837	1,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	88.8	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-10.6	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	60.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-4,779	4,632	147
– Gross Longs:	3,671	22,409	303
– Gross Shorts:	8,450	17,777	156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	40.5	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	1.8	-25.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

22 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (4,803 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,708 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,645 contracts) with the VIX (-14,395 contracts), Russell-Mini (-14,031 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-2,751 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,278,321	21	-344,257	0	359,830	98	-15,573	24
Nikkei 225	11,716	4	-2,556	61	1,555	40	1,001	41
Nasdaq-Mini	245,059	38	2,673	77	6,417	30	-9,090	36
DowJones-Mini	96,061	57	-24,397	11	29,345	93	-4,948	20
VIX	391,654	85	-63,761	69	65,590	28	-1,829	87
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,204	25	6,610	54	14,390	50	-21,000	36

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) and the VIX (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (61 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (69.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (73.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (36.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (21.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 Yen (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-31 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-30.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (4.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	53.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	36.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-63,761	65,590	-1,829
– Gross Longs:	79,608	210,030	25,841
– Gross Shorts:	143,369	144,440	27,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	27.5	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.0	-5.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -344,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	61.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-344,257	359,830	-15,573
– Gross Longs:	204,558	1,764,361	241,651
– Gross Shorts:	548,815	1,404,531	257,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	18.5	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	36.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-24,397	29,345	-4,948
– Gross Longs:	18,896	64,305	12,225
– Gross Shorts:	43,293	34,960	17,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	93.4	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	23.8	-0.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	60.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	57.4	18.0
– Net Position:	2,673	6,417	-9,090
– Gross Longs:	58,753	147,191	35,128
– Gross Shorts:	56,080	140,774	44,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	30.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-18.3	27.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -59,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	71.1	5.1
– Net Position:	-59,162	64,474	-5,312
– Gross Longs:	51,876	422,606	20,475
– Gross Shorts:	111,038	358,132	25,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	66.7	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.8	-33.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	48.6	33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	35.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-2,556	1,555	1,001
– Gross Longs:	2,147	5,697	3,872
– Gross Shorts:	4,703	4,142	2,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.3	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.1	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	86.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-16,652	10,731	5,921
– Gross Longs:	29,950	350,488	11,085
– Gross Shorts:	46,602	339,757	5,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	13.5	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.