COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Soft Commodities: Cotton Speculators boost their bullish bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (20,764 contracts) with Sugar (2,981 contracts), Coffee (1,713 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,620 contracts) and Cocoa (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,808 contracts) with Soybeans (-8,949 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,319 contracts), Wheat (-4,907 contracts), Live Cattle (-469 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-5,118 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlights of Weekly positions:

Cotton speculative bets this week (+20,764 contracts) jumped by the highest weekly amount in over a year. This has brought the current speculator standing to the most bullish level (+22,319 contracts) since October of 2021. Cotton prices have had a big downfall since their highs in May of 2022 with a peak-to-trough drop of over 50 percent but looked to have bottomed for the time being.

Soybeans bets have dropped sharply over the past two months with speculator positions falling for seven straight weeks. The current net position for Soybeans is at the lowest level since November of 2021 due to an expectation of a record crop in the United States.

Wheat speculator bets dipped again this week and have declined in ten out of the past fourteen weeks. Wheat prices have cooled off markedly since screaming higher at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The futures price has fallen over 50 percent from the highest levels of 2022 and has recently crossed below the 200-week moving average.

Corn speculator positions declined this week and have now fallen by a total of -167,903 contracts over the past 5-week period. This recent bearishness has brought the speculator positioning into an overall bearish level for the first time since August of 2020. Like many of the other agriculture soft commodities, Corn prices are down from their 2022 highs with the current Corn level lower by about 25 percent from May 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,847,901	40	193,119	9	-217,386	91	24,267	28
Gold	479,080	26	160,732	48	-187,023	52	26,291	46
Silver	135,740	21	21,958	50	-34,972	52	13,014	39
Copper	215,394	55	-29,808	2	27,496	97	2,312	33
Palladium	11,138	71	-5,289	17	5,669	85	-380	19
Platinum	73,079	82	27,479	79	-32,157	27	4,678	31
Natural Gas	1,338,868	76	-112,278	27	80,837	72	31,441	55
Brent	146,776	19	-47,806	10	45,210	92	2,596	44
Heating Oil	306,360	39	9,097	43	-16,705	80	7,608	25
Soybeans	651,248	17	29,205	1	-2,404	96	-26,801	28
Corn	1,299,841	14	-62,267	22	115,832	88	-53,565	23
Coffee	198,683	11	32,748	61	-33,373	43	625	20
Sugar	983,887	67	273,810	88	-323,323	11	49,513	67
Wheat	379,453	54	-86,319	3	80,586	98	5,733	93

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (88 percent), Soybean Meal (65 percent) and Coffee (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (1 percent), Soybeans (1 percent) and the Wheat (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.8 percent)
Sugar (87.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.7 percent)
Coffee (61.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.3 percent)
Live Cattle (92.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.3 percent)
Cotton (25.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.9 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.4 percent)
Wheat (2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Coffee (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (8 percent), Cocoa (7 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-21 percent), Wheat (-14 percent) and Soybean Oil (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-21.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.1 percent)
Sugar (5.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (8.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybeans (-59.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-57.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.5 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (6.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.6 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -62,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	52.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	43.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-62,267	115,832	-53,565
– Gross Longs:	282,880	682,886	116,884
– Gross Shorts:	345,147	567,054	170,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	88.4	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	22.9	3.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 273,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	39.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	72.1	4.3
– Net Position:	273,810	-323,323	49,513
– Gross Longs:	350,244	386,150	92,284
– Gross Shorts:	76,434	709,473	42,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.7	11.0	67.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-1.8	-10.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	44.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	61.4	3.3
– Net Position:	32,748	-33,373	625
– Gross Longs:	53,687	88,628	7,267
– Gross Shorts:	20,939	122,001	6,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	42.7	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-8.1	3.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	53.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	54.3	11.0
– Net Position:	29,205	-2,404	-26,801
– Gross Longs:	138,687	351,024	44,581
– Gross Shorts:	109,482	353,428	71,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.0	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-59.0	50.6	7.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	55.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	50.5	5.8
– Net Position:	-27,863	28,911	-1,048
– Gross Longs:	86,842	302,248	30,161
– Gross Shorts:	114,705	273,337	31,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	99.3	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	3.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 110,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	38.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	63.4	7.0
– Net Position:	110,022	-119,902	9,880
– Gross Longs:	136,546	184,271	43,425
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	304,173	33,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	40.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	7.4	-36.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 101,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	27.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.1	13.3
– Net Position:	101,647	-89,891	-11,756
– Gross Longs:	151,178	89,344	32,235
– Gross Shorts:	49,531	179,235	43,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	12.2	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-2.6	-27.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	37.8	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	24.7	9.1
– Net Position:	-33,852	30,405	3,447
– Gross Longs:	60,033	88,003	24,705
– Gross Shorts:	93,885	57,598	21,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	8.0	4.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	46.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	59.5	4.8
– Net Position:	22,319	-26,017	3,698
– Gross Longs:	63,540	88,722	13,024
– Gross Shorts:	41,221	114,739	9,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	72.7	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.7	21.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	29.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	50.1	3.1
– Net Position:	65,374	-70,745	5,371
– Gross Longs:	142,438	97,452	15,901
– Gross Shorts:	77,064	168,197	10,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.8	2.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -86,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	37.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	16.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-86,319	80,586	5,733
– Gross Longs:	112,390	141,282	37,340
– Gross Shorts:	198,709	60,696	31,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.7	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	15.3	4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

20 May

Currency Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (8,065 contracts) with the EuroFX (7,667 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,603 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,608 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,506 contracts) and Bitcoin (588 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,401 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,642 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-727 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-988 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the British pound sterling. Large speculative pound Sterling positions gained this week for a second consecutive week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.

Sterling weekly positions have now increased by a total of +36,677 contracts over the past seven-week period. This bullish turn in bets has taken the overall net speculator position from a total of -24,084 contracts on March 28th to a total of +12,593 contracts this week, the best level since November of 2021. The sterling position has been in a bullish level for five straight weeks after a streak of sixty straight weeks in bearish territory through April 11th.

The sterling’s front-month future’s price has been on the uptrend since bottoming in September with a low at the 1.0392 exchange rate. This week’s closing price of 1.2457 is approximately 20 percent higher than that September low.

Helping boost the sterling in recent months is the rising interest rate as the Bank of England increased it’s Bank Rate to 4.5 percent at the May 11th meeting. The inflation rate in the UK currently is right around 10 percent (with a target of 2 percent) and investor’s are expecting more rate rises to come, according to ING.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,880	25	9,514	41	-12,357	56	2,843	48
EUR	789,930	88	187,089	90	-238,333	10	51,244	61
GBP	247,165	66	12,593	80	-17,729	22	5,136	68
JPY	200,515	47	-64,791	29	76,137	73	-11,346	30
CHF	43,681	48	-1,859	50	2,838	50	-979	54
CAD	161,195	38	-42,990	14	44,533	86	-1,543	19
AUD	167,020	63	-53,594	35	61,902	65	-8,308	32
NZD	36,187	24	-2,075	48	1,943	51	132	52
MXN	254,037	57	73,635	100	-79,465	0	5,830	92
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	50,633	40	33,606	79	-36,899	19	3,293	70
Bitcoin	13,043	56	1,011	95	-1,463	0	452	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (90 percent), British Pound (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (40.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.5 percent)
EuroFX (90.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (48.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.8 percent)
Bitcoin (94.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (84.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (24 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-8 percent) and Japanese Yen (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.1 percent)
Bitcoin (28.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	9.1	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	49.1	9.1
– Net Position:	9,514	-12,357	2,843
– Gross Longs:	20,669	2,817	5,644
– Gross Shorts:	11,155	15,174	2,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	56.1	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.0	8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 187,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	82.9	5.3
– Net Position:	187,089	-238,333	51,244
– Gross Longs:	258,736	416,383	93,212
– Gross Shorts:	71,647	654,716	41,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.0	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-14.7	-0.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	50.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.0	10.4
– Net Position:	12,593	-17,729	5,136
– Gross Longs:	77,388	125,675	30,873
– Gross Shorts:	64,795	143,404	25,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-18.1	-1.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	33.0	18.9
– Net Position:	-64,791	76,137	-11,346
– Gross Longs:	29,494	142,392	26,570
– Gross Shorts:	94,285	66,255	37,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.8	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	11.6	-32.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	42.4	33.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	35.9	35.7
– Net Position:	-1,859	2,838	-979
– Gross Longs:	8,561	18,524	14,600
– Gross Shorts:	10,420	15,686	15,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.7	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-13.2	6.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	60.9	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	33.2	20.0
– Net Position:	-42,990	44,533	-1,543
– Gross Longs:	28,514	98,089	30,767
– Gross Shorts:	71,504	53,556	32,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	86.4	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-9.3	-4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	58.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	21.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-53,594	61,902	-8,308
– Gross Longs:	43,903	98,069	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	97,497	36,167	27,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	65.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	18.7	3.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	49.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	43.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-2,075	1,943	132
– Gross Longs:	14,610	17,789	3,695
– Gross Shorts:	16,685	15,846	3,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.1	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-1.8	-14.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	43.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	75.0	1.2
– Net Position:	73,635	-79,465	5,830
– Gross Longs:	133,268	111,178	8,968
– Gross Shorts:	59,633	190,643	3,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.3	3.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.4	14.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	87.6	2.4
– Net Position:	33,606	-36,899	3,293
– Gross Longs:	38,661	7,439	4,485
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	44,338	1,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	19.3	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-26.2	13.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.1	1.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	12.5	6.8
– Net Position:	1,011	-1,463	452
– Gross Longs:	10,055	163	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,044	1,626	882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	0.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-53.7	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 May

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and 5-Year Treasuries

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (286,007 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (39,256 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25,171 contracts), the Eurodollar (18,226 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,539 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (11,548 contracts), and the Fed Funds (7,746 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-103,690 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-13,271 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds

Highlighting the COT bonds data once again this week was an increase in the record bearish speculator positions for both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Speculators have now added more than -100,000 contracts to the bearish position in each of the past two weeks. There has been a total of -356,734 contracts added to the overall bearish standing in the past five weeks which has taken the position from -496,841 on April 11th to a total new historical record bearish level of -853,575 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year Bond speculator positions only edged slightly lower this week but have now been more bearish for four straight weeks. The last four weeks have added a total of -169,411 contracts to the net speculator level and has brought the current bearish position to a record total of -923,913 contracts.

The 2-Year and 5-Years front-month futures prices were on retreat this week as were most of the bonds across the US Treasury yield curve. The 5-Year price closed at the 108.22 level but remains approximately 3 percent higher from the most recent low hit in October. The 2-Year futures price closed the week at 102.19 and only approximately 1.25 percent higher than the recent low reached in March.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	550,147	0	-36,884	73	39,568	23	-2,684	99
FedFunds	1,585,578	54	-67,571	31	88,368	71	-20,797	50
2-Year	3,164,301	100	-853,575	0	772,391	100	81,184	95
Long T-Bond	1,236,267	67	-61,581	65	-315	10	61,896	94
10-Year	4,718,099	100	-692,442	6	570,703	83	121,739	100
5-Year	5,100,803	100	-923,913	0	872,715	99	51,198	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.5 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.8 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	60.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	53.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-36,884	39,568	-2,684
– Gross Longs:	155,249	333,675	60,427
– Gross Shorts:	192,133	294,107	63,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.7	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.5	35.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 286,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	61.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	59.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-166,821	176,705	-9,884
– Gross Longs:	1,503,562	6,133,861	41,542
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,383	5,957,156	51,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	19.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.4	-2.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -67,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	76.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	-67,571	88,368	-20,797
– Gross Longs:	69,674	1,216,347	31,381
– Gross Shorts:	137,245	1,127,979	52,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.6	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.3	-21.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -853,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -103,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	58.1	4.6
– Net Position:	-853,575	772,391	81,184
– Gross Longs:	290,539	2,612,188	227,803
– Gross Shorts:	1,144,114	1,839,797	146,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	35.3	29.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -923,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	64.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-923,913	872,715	51,198
– Gross Longs:	435,965	4,177,142	368,639
– Gross Shorts:	1,359,878	3,304,427	317,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.3	6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -692,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 39,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	76.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	64.0	7.1
– Net Position:	-692,442	570,703	121,739
– Gross Longs:	527,490	3,588,001	454,956
– Gross Shorts:	1,219,932	3,017,298	333,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	82.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	-5.2	25.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -186,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.1	14.3
– Net Position:	-186,427	267,999	-81,572
– Gross Longs:	173,884	1,340,651	164,624
– Gross Shorts:	360,311	1,072,652	246,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	91.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.4	6.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.1	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	76.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-61,581	-315	61,896
– Gross Longs:	91,193	941,115	183,809
– Gross Shorts:	152,774	941,430	121,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	10.5	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-29.5	10.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -388,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-388,980	328,975	60,005
– Gross Longs:	97,884	1,192,422	183,052
– Gross Shorts:	486,864	863,447	123,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	65.3	99.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-12.6	5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 May

Palladium Speculators trim bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals this week was Palladium with a gain of 731 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,000 contracts), Silver (-8,545 contracts), Copper (-7,742 contracts), Steel (-524 contracts) and Platinum (-2,261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium speculators trim their bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in bets for the Palladium speculative positions. Palladium was the only metal with a gain in speculator bets this week and has now risen for two straight weeks. Palladium has also gained in three out of the past five weeks. The current net speculator position of -4,916 contracts is the least bearish standing out of the past fourteen weeks.

The speculator positioning has been improving for Palladium as the strength index score (speculator positioning range of past three years) came out of a bearish extreme position this week for the first time since February 7th. Palladium’s strength index has improved by 16 percentage points over the past six weeks.

Fundamentally, the outlook for Palladium has taken a hit with car manufacturers looking to use Platinum instead of Palladium for parts, especially in electric cars. Despite the pullback from manufacturers, recent reports have shown the both Platinum and Palladium supply will be in deficits this year, possibly putting a floor under prices.

Palladium prices have bounced off of a major support level at $1,400 in recent weeks and closed this week above $1,520. Palladium raced as high as $3,425 in March of 2022 before dropping sharply into a downtrend that has extended into this year. Palladium bulls hope that the recent drop to $1,333 in March marks a new bottom as it coincides with the 2020 pandemic low-point as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	521,832	46	179,814	56	-211,557	42	31,743	60
Silver	140,139	26	23,815	52	-37,067	49	13,252	40
Copper	210,415	51	-32,607	0	28,695	98	3,912	43
Palladium	12,761	93	-4,916	20	5,388	82	-472	13
Platinum	73,410	83	25,823	75	-30,405	31	4,582	30

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (75 percent) and Steel (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Silver (52 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.3 percent)
Silver (52.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (64.4 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.9 percent)
Platinum (75.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (80.4 percent)
Palladium (20.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.4 percent)
Steel (60.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.9 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (24 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (-7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-26 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.2 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (-26.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.7 percent)
Platinum (24.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.9 percent)
Palladium (16.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Steel (-0.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	26.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	67.0	4.4
– Net Position:	179,814	-211,557	31,743
– Gross Longs:	255,250	138,322	54,852
– Gross Shorts:	75,436	349,879	23,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	42.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	2.6	21.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	57.2	8.8
– Net Position:	23,815	-37,067	13,252
– Gross Longs:	60,440	43,026	25,607
– Gross Shorts:	36,625	80,093	12,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	49.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-6.8	17.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	47.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	33.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-32,607	28,695	3,912
– Gross Longs:	59,693	100,023	19,241
– Gross Shorts:	92,300	71,328	15,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	28.5	-24.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	28.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	70.3	3.7
– Net Position:	25,823	-30,405	4,582
– Gross Longs:	39,962	21,228	7,282
– Gross Shorts:	14,139	51,633	2,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	30.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.0	-23.2	10.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	61.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	19.7	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,916	5,388	-472
– Gross Longs:	1,782	7,900	1,136
– Gross Shorts:	6,698	2,512	1,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-13.6	-6.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	62.4	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,420	4,502	-82
– Gross Longs:	2,997	21,755	185
– Gross Shorts:	7,417	17,253	267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.1	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.6	-34.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

20 May

Speculator Extremes: MXN Peso, Cocoa, Lean Hogs & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 16th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 73,635 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,603 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 9.6 this week. The speculator position registered -1,697 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 404 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 64,055 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,026 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 94.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 28.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,011 net contracts this week with an increase of 588 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.9 this week.

The speculator position was 102,116 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -28,734 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -29,483 net contracts this week with a drop of -21,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -853,575 net contracts this week with a decrease of -103,690 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The S&P500 Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position was -388,721 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -12,698 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.0 this week. The speculator position was -923,913 net contracts this week with a drop of -13,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

13 May

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso positions to 165-week high as peso cruises

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (12,322 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,833 contracts), the Japanese Yen (7,309 contracts), EuroFX (5,933 contracts), British Pound (3,463 contracts) and Bitcoin (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,183 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (-2,664 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,468 contracts), Brazilian Real (-867 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso positions hit 165-week high as peso cruises higher

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued rise in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +101,284 contracts over the past nine weeks, going from a net position of -31,252 contracts on March 7th to this week’s total net position of +70,032 contracts. This boost in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position to the highest level in 165 weeks, dating back to the height of the pandemic in March of 2020.

Helping the peso positioning has been the rising interest rates in Mexico that recently reached the 11.25 percent level at the latest central bank meeting in March. There is speculation of another 25 basis point increase in May as well. This has given Mexico a rising interest rate differential with the US central bank that is seen as mostly likely holding its key interest rate in June with an 84 percent probability, according to the CME Fed Tool.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a sharp uptrend to start 2023. The MXN futures (front month) price closed this week at 0.5642 compared to the 2023 opening price around the 0.5070 exchange rate. The MXN futures have gained in six out of the past eight weeks and, this week, reached its highest level since September 2017.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,175	28	11,156	44	-12,626	56	1,470	33
EUR	794,721	90	179,422	88	-234,260	11	54,838	66
GBP	242,576	63	4,528	73	-11,528	26	7,000	72
JPY	192,574	42	-61,015	31	69,162	69	-8,147	37
CHF	43,389	47	-4,467	43	4,759	53	-292	57
CAD	159,364	37	-42,263	15	41,957	85	306	23
AUD	165,532	62	-49,193	39	56,897	61	-7,704	34
NZD	41,583	39	-4,581	41	4,283	57	298	54
MXN	255,441	57	70,032	100	-76,533	0	6,501	96
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	49,208	38	34,594	80	-36,504	20	1,910	59
Bitcoin	13,102	56	423	84	-1,131	0	708	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), Brazilian Real (80 percent) and the British Pound (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (31 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.9 percent)
EuroFX (87.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.9 percent)
Bitcoin (84.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (25 percent) and the Mexican Peso (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the Brazilian Real (14 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-4 percent), US Dollar Index (-3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.7 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.3	12.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	51.4	10.7
– Net Position:	11,156	-12,626	1,470
– Gross Longs:	21,656	3,902	4,923
– Gross Shorts:	10,500	16,528	3,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	55.7	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	3.9	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 179,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.1	5.2
– Net Position:	179,422	-234,260	54,838
– Gross Longs:	260,335	418,410	96,515
– Gross Shorts:	80,913	652,670	41,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	11.4	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.5	13.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	52.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	57.1	9.9
– Net Position:	4,528	-11,528	7,000
– Gross Longs:	71,561	126,935	31,057
– Gross Shorts:	67,033	138,463	24,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	26.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-23.2	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -61,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.7	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	35.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-61,015	69,162	-8,147
– Gross Longs:	22,229	137,992	29,150
– Gross Shorts:	83,244	68,830	37,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.7	-9.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	44.8	33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	33.8	34.5
– Net Position:	-4,467	4,759	-292
– Gross Longs:	7,056	19,431	14,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,523	14,672	14,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.8	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-9.9	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.4	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	33.1	19.4
– Net Position:	-42,263	41,957	306
– Gross Longs:	29,609	94,662	31,226
– Gross Shorts:	71,872	52,705	30,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	84.7	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.6	15.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	25.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-49,193	56,897	-7,704
– Gross Longs:	41,225	98,698	19,371
– Gross Shorts:	90,418	41,801	27,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	61.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	8.3	6.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	38.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,581	4,283	298
– Gross Longs:	17,461	20,224	3,681
– Gross Shorts:	22,042	15,941	3,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.6	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.4	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.2	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	76.1	0.9
– Net Position:	70,032	-76,533	6,501
– Gross Longs:	127,763	117,890	8,859
– Gross Shorts:	57,731	194,423	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.0	11.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	14.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	88.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,594	-36,504	1,910
– Gross Longs:	38,196	7,097	3,841
– Gross Shorts:	3,602	43,601	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	19.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-7.4	-40.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	10.4	4.8
– Net Position:	423	-1,131	708
– Gross Longs:	10,027	233	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,604	1,364	626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	8.7	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-38.3	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 May

Copper Speculator bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,397 contracts) with Palladium (797 contracts), Silver (408 contracts) and Gold (247 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,123 contracts) and Steel (-314 contracts).

Copper bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bearishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures decreased for the third straight week this week and has now dropped in five out of the past six weeks. The slide in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts standing down to a total of -24,865 contracts. This marks the most bearish level for speculators in the past 32-weeks, dating back to last September 27th.

Overall, the Copper speculator position has now been in a bearish level for eleven out of the past thirteen weeks.

Denting the sentiment for the red metal has been the weaker than expected data out of China (including imports & inflation), which is the largest importer of Copper in the world.

The Copper front-month futures price (US Comex futures) has been on downtrend since hitting a most recent high of $4.25 per pound in January. This week saw the price fall for a fourth straight week and close at approximately 3.73 per pound while also touching the lowest price since November. Overall, the Copper price is down about 25 percent from the post-2020 high of $4.6255 per pound that was reached in March of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	518,951	45	195,814	63	-222,515	38	26,701	47
Silver	145,445	32	32,360	64	-46,190	38	13,830	43
Copper	194,243	38	-24,865	6	19,732	90	5,133	51
Palladium	13,295	100	-5,647	13	5,965	87	-318	23
Platinum	74,125	86	28,084	80	-32,484	26	4,400	27

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (80 percent) and Silver (64 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.1 percent)
Silver (64.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (63.8 percent)
Copper (6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.0 percent)
Platinum (80.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (77.2 percent)
Palladium (13.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (61.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.8 percent)

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (41 percent) and Silver (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.3 percent)
Silver (27.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (40.7 percent)
Copper (-20.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.4 percent)
Platinum (40.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.6 percent)
Palladium (10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.3 percent)
Steel (3.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 195,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	25.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	68.1	4.9
– Net Position:	195,814	-222,515	26,701
– Gross Longs:	266,472	130,985	52,012
– Gross Shorts:	70,658	353,500	25,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	38.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.1	17.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.6	28.6	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	60.4	8.0
– Net Position:	32,360	-46,190	13,830
– Gross Longs:	69,166	41,636	25,474
– Gross Shorts:	36,806	87,826	11,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	37.9	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-29.4	29.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	48.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	37.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-24,865	19,732	5,133
– Gross Longs:	55,131	93,211	18,255
– Gross Shorts:	79,996	73,479	13,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	90.2	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	20.9	-8.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	27.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	71.4	4.2
– Net Position:	28,084	-32,484	4,400
– Gross Longs:	41,712	20,408	7,535
– Gross Shorts:	13,628	52,892	3,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	26.3	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.9	-36.6	-0.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	62.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	17.3	11.5
– Net Position:	-5,647	5,965	-318
– Gross Longs:	1,733	8,269	1,211
– Gross Shorts:	7,380	2,304	1,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-10.3	6.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.1	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	61.9	0.9
– Net Position:	-3,896	3,922	-26
– Gross Longs:	3,161	19,929	214
– Gross Shorts:	7,057	16,007	240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	38.4	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-2.9	-45.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

13 May

COT Speculator Extremes: Peso, 2-Year, 5-Year & SP500 lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 9th.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,322 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.0 this week. The speculator position registered 62,029 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 4,078 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,101 net contracts this week with a change of -82 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 276,610 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,263 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.2 this week.

The speculator position was 97,837 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,949 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -910,642 net contracts this week with a edge lower by -412 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The S&P500 speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.7 this week. The speculator position was -376,023 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,612 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -749,885 net contracts this week with a sharp decline of -116,409 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -26,075 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,381 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -211,598 net contracts this week with a change of 6,690 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

13 May

What is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)?

Bonds Speculators drop 2-Year & 5-Year bets to record lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (172,071 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (17,449 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (16,285 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6,690 contracts) and the Eurodollar (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-116,409 contracts), the Fed Funds (-35,180 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-412 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-1,713 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets to record lows

Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s record bearish speculator positioning in both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -253,044 contracts to the bearish position over the past four weeks alone. This weakness in sentiment has pushed the overall bearish standing to the highest level on record at a total of -749,885 contracts, according to CFTC data that goes back to 1990. This record bearish position surpassed the previous one that was recently registered on February 14th at a total of -696,686 contracts.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also dropped their bets to a record low position this week and have done so for three straight weeks in succession. The 5-Year speculators have added a whopping -353,430 contracts to their net positions over the past eight weeks. This week’s record bearish position is at a total of -910,642 contracts which is the all-time low dating back to 1988, according to the CFTC.

Despite these all-time lows in both the 2-Year and 5-Years positions, their respective futures prices have not followed lower. The 2-Year futures price closed this week at 103.05 and is almost 2 percent higher than the low that was reached in early March at 101.09. Meanwhile, the 5-Year futures price closed at 110.01 this week and is approximately 4.35 percent higher than the low that was hit in October at 105.14. Overall in the longer view, the 5-Year price is down by approximately 13 percent from the highs of 2021 while the 2-Year prices are down by about 6.5 percent from 2021.

The outlook for both of these bonds will depend very much on the path forward for the benchmark interest rate controlled by the US Federal Reserve and how the economy evolves. The latest forecast for the next Fed meeting shows a high likelihood of an interest rate pause (almost 85 percent per the CME Fed tool). This pause would be a positive for bond prices while if an economic recession does take place, bond prices would likely be a place for safe haven investments. A recession could also prompt a Fed interest rate cut (bond price positive). However, further upside in inflation and followed by more Fed hikes would be a negative for bonds. The US debt ceiling is also an outlier risk event coming up that needs to be kept in mind as well.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	632,242	0	-55,110	73	58,414	23	-3,304	99
FedFunds	1,502,281	47	-75,317	30	104,070	73	-28,753	35
2-Year	3,007,292	100	-749,885	0	681,291	100	68,594	89
Long T-Bond	1,189,414	54	-73,129	61	2,355	11	70,774	100
10-Year	4,510,018	100	-731,698	2	641,595	90	90,103	100
5-Year	5,086,319	100	-910,642	0	872,302	99	38,340	92

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (61 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (34.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (60.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
Eurodollar (72.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (57.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.9 percent)

Eurodollar & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (15 percent) and the Fed Funds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (6 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-33 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-28 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-1.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-20.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-27.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-28.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (9.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
Eurodollar (14.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-32.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	63.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	53.9	11.1
– Net Position:	-55,110	58,414	-3,304
– Gross Longs:	157,203	399,297	66,638
– Gross Shorts:	212,313	340,883	69,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	23.1	98.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-18.0	38.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -452,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 172,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -624,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	62.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	58.1	0.5
– Net Position:	-452,828	457,566	-4,738
– Gross Longs:	1,408,633	6,178,976	42,103
– Gross Shorts:	1,861,461	5,721,410	46,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.5	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	32.8	0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -75,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	78.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	71.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-75,317	104,070	-28,753
– Gross Longs:	59,367	1,178,447	34,793
– Gross Shorts:	134,684	1,074,377	63,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	72.5	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-8.5	-45.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -749,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -116,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -633,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	82.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	60.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-749,885	681,291	68,594
– Gross Longs:	266,070	2,490,414	221,650
– Gross Shorts:	1,015,955	1,809,123	153,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	24.3	22.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -910,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	64.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-910,642	872,302	38,340
– Gross Longs:	477,767	4,146,935	361,166
– Gross Shorts:	1,388,409	3,274,633	322,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	25.4	-4.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -731,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	63.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-731,698	641,595	90,103
– Gross Longs:	453,077	3,522,275	425,427
– Gross Shorts:	1,184,775	2,880,680	335,324
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	90.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	22.5	12.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -211,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	79.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	62.2	14.4
– Net Position:	-211,598	283,856	-72,258
– Gross Longs:	154,358	1,326,293	169,295
– Gross Shorts:	365,956	1,042,437	241,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	95.0	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	4.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	76.8	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	76.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-73,129	2,355	70,774
– Gross Longs:	76,938	913,035	182,961
– Gross Shorts:	150,067	910,680	112,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	11.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.9	0.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -400,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -398,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	81.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	58.0	8.1
– Net Position:	-400,519	340,881	59,638
– Gross Longs:	89,706	1,188,568	178,139
– Gross Shorts:	490,225	847,687	118,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	71.9	99.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-11.7	1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

Euro Currency Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (5,039 contracts), British Pound (4,537 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,223 contracts), the Australian Dollar (2,894 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,442 contracts), the US Dollar Index (226 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,064 contracts), Bitcoin (196 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (652 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,875 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-2,043 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency. Euro speculator bets turned from bearish to bullish on September 20th of 2022 and have steadily increased in positive sentiment. The Euro positions have now been above the +100,000 contract threshold for 26 straight weeks, the best streak since 2021.

This week, the large speculative Euro positions went higher for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now increased by a total of +29,444 contracts over these past six weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the overall bullish standing to the highest level in 133-weeks, dating back to October 6th of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar has also been on the rise and this week hit it’s highest level since March of 2022 above the 1.11 exchange level. Since late-February, the Euro has had higher weekly closes in seven out of the past nine weeks and is now higher by over 15 percent since it’s multi-decade low of 0.9592 in September.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,441	33	10,739	43	-12,711	56	1,972	38
EUR	772,882	83	169,400	84	-224,437	15	55,037	67
GBP	231,666	56	5,839	74	-10,530	27	4,691	67
JPY	184,041	37	-68,744	27	72,625	71	-3,881	46
CHF	41,736	41	-3,656	45	2,701	49	955	61
CAD	151,786	31	-43,791	14	45,878	87	-2,087	18
AUD	178,757	72	-39,462	48	53,746	59	-14,284	18
NZD	36,603	25	-3,252	45	3,928	56	-676	44
MXN	267,276	61	54,128	90	-58,607	11	4,479	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	78,748	78	16,819	57	-16,343	45	-476	40
Bitcoin	14,064	64	-293	72	-296	0	589	26

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the EuroFX (84 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (74 percent), Bitcoin (72 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.5 percent)
EuroFX (83.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (44.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (71.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

British Pound & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-9 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-16.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-25.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-14.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.1	10.0	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	46.9	9.4
– Net Position:	10,739	-12,711	1,972
– Gross Longs:	24,149	3,432	5,219
– Gross Shorts:	13,410	16,143	3,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.8	-13.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 169,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	83.2	5.1
– Net Position:	169,400	-224,437	55,037
– Gross Longs:	243,516	418,842	94,777
– Gross Shorts:	74,116	643,279	39,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	14.7	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.7	13.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	55.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	59.5	11.5
– Net Position:	5,839	-10,530	4,691
– Gross Longs:	59,405	127,306	31,336
– Gross Shorts:	53,566	137,836	26,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.9	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-24.6	25.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	73.5	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	34.1	18.6
– Net Position:	-68,744	72,625	-3,881
– Gross Longs:	13,680	135,330	30,358
– Gross Shorts:	82,424	62,705	34,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	71.1	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-6.5	14.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.0	36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	37.6	34.2
– Net Position:	-3,656	2,701	955
– Gross Longs:	6,556	18,374	15,210
– Gross Shorts:	10,212	15,673	14,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	49.4	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-17.5	14.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.8	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	31.6	21.1
– Net Position:	-43,791	45,878	-2,087
– Gross Longs:	24,295	93,784	29,997
– Gross Shorts:	68,086	47,906	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	87.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	6.5	5.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	25.3	18.6
– Net Position:	-39,462	53,746	-14,284
– Gross Longs:	54,241	98,900	18,987
– Gross Shorts:	93,703	45,154	33,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	59.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	0.5	-3.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	42.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-3,252	3,928	-676
– Gross Longs:	13,070	19,334	3,465
– Gross Shorts:	16,322	15,406	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.4	-0.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	47.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	69.1	1.1
– Net Position:	54,128	-58,607	4,479
– Gross Longs:	133,098	126,071	7,451
– Gross Shorts:	78,970	184,678	2,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	11.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	44.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	16,819	-16,343	-476
– Gross Longs:	39,668	34,986	3,942
– Gross Shorts:	22,849	51,329	4,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.6	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.0	-31.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	2.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.1	5.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-293	-296	589
– Gross Longs:	9,566	410	1,364
– Gross Shorts:	9,859	706	775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	45.9	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	-0.6	4.6

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