COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 61

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculators Weekly: Soybean Meal, Heating Oil & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week and has been for multiple weeks. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 92.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 149,785 net contracts this week with a change of -16,565 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 79.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.8 this week. The speculator position registered 25,360 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,854 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 76.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 134,349 net contracts this week with a change of 7,365 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 76.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 20.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,149 net contracts this week with a change of -794 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 70.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 20.7 this week.

The speculator position was 22,785 net contracts this week with a change of 592 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -48,320 net contracts this week with a change of -6,306 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.1 this week. The speculator position was -125,911 net contracts this week with a change of 410 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,166 net contracts this week with a change of -12,741 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.8 this week. The speculator position was -541,821 net contracts this week with a change of 3,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

Finally, the MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.7 this week. The speculator position was -34,202 net contracts this week with a change of -5,924 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

28 Jan

Large Metals Speculators continue to boost Gold bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,433 contracts) with Copper (3,932 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-5,784 contracts), Platinum (-3,283 contracts) and Palladium (-546 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced once again this week for an eighth straight week and for the tenth time out of the past twelve weeks. The Gold position has now risen from a total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a new 30-week high at a total of +157,673 contracts this week.

The Gold futures price closed slightly higher again this week and has now been up for six consecutive weeks. This week’s high was right below the $1,950.00 level and marked the highest Gold prices have reached since April. Gold may be due for a breather with the daily RSI Indicator showing overbought levels but with the US Dollar trending lower, Gold may have a bright outlook in 2023.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Copper (52 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (42 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.8 percent)
Copper (52.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (38.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.6 percent)
Silver (3.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (14.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (11.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.0 percent)
Palladium (-23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 157,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 153,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	25.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	61.6	5.0
– Net Position:	157,673	-180,554	22,881
– Gross Longs:	253,311	127,419	47,880
– Gross Shorts:	95,638	307,973	24,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.4	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.0	25.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 25,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.1	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.3	7.5
– Net Position:	25,684	-39,461	13,777
– Gross Longs:	55,595	47,359	23,875
– Gross Shorts:	29,911	86,820	10,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	57.9	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.5	4.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	47.4	6.3
– Net Position:	20,170	-26,542	6,372
– Gross Longs:	87,941	74,715	19,913
– Gross Shorts:	67,771	101,257	13,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	46.4	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.5	13.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	66.4	3.6
– Net Position:	20,261	-25,819	5,558
– Gross Longs:	39,279	22,428	8,206
– Gross Shorts:	19,018	48,247	2,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	9.2	18.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	62.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	24.5	15.5
– Net Position:	-3,297	3,534	-237
– Gross Longs:	1,787	5,826	1,212
– Gross Shorts:	5,084	2,292	1,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.1	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	24.3	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

28 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,660,450	23	249,799	12	-273,246	88	23,447	38
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42
Natural Gas	1,102,760	27	-170,972	24	138,482	78	32,490	57
Brent	153,686	14	-36,800	41	33,917	57	2,883	48
Heating Oil	278,159	27	25,360	80	-48,540	20	23,180	79
Soybeans	667,416	20	155,222	59	-117,945	52	-37,277	8
Corn	1,274,410	11	277,369	65	-205,662	43	-71,707	2
Coffee	231,360	35	-22,728	4	20,167	96	2,561	35
Sugar	924,848	42	185,084	58	-229,339	37	44,255	63
Wheat	350,331	27	-48,320	0	50,423	100	-2,103	99

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	60.0	14.7
– Net Position:	277,369	-205,662	-71,707
– Gross Longs:	388,317	558,456	115,106
– Gross Shorts:	110,948	764,118	186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	42.6	2.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-4.6	-22.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	43.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	68.6	5.1
– Net Position:	185,084	-229,339	44,255
– Gross Longs:	270,150	404,948	91,086
– Gross Shorts:	85,066	634,287	46,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	37.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.2	10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	52.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	44.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-22,728	20,167	2,561
– Gross Longs:	45,404	122,400	10,598
– Gross Shorts:	68,132	102,233	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	95.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.6	21.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	46.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	64.3	12.5
– Net Position:	155,222	-117,945	-37,277
– Gross Longs:	206,329	311,307	46,219
– Gross Shorts:	51,107	429,252	83,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	52.5	8.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-11.7	-10.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	50.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	7.4
– Net Position:	39,250	-44,514	5,264
– Gross Longs:	80,599	203,133	34,963
– Gross Shorts:	41,349	247,647	29,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	72.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	15.1	-28.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	32.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	73.2	7.1
– Net Position:	149,785	-169,008	19,223
– Gross Longs:	168,470	138,088	49,137
– Gross Shorts:	18,685	307,096	29,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	7.8	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.7	3.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	30.6	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.4	12.2
– Net Position:	66,228	-62,823	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	117,249	96,720	35,368
– Gross Shorts:	51,021	159,543	38,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	27.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.5	1.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	37.0	12.5
– Net Position:	3,166	-682	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	66,938	75,927	23,357
– Gross Shorts:	63,772	76,609	25,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	96.9	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.8	27.7	47.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	48.5	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	58.0	5.3
– Net Position:	17,833	-19,679	1,846
– Gross Longs:	61,599	100,981	12,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,766	120,660	11,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-3.4	9.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.2	2.9
– Net Position:	24,941	-28,978	4,037
– Gross Longs:	90,986	138,394	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,045	167,372	8,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	58.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	26.3	10.3
– Net Position:	-48,320	50,423	-2,103
– Gross Longs:	88,787	142,422	33,981
– Gross Shorts:	137,107	91,999	36,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	8.2	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

21 Jan

Currency Speculators retreat from US Dollar Index bullish bets to a 78-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,416 contracts) with the British Pound (4,759 contracts), Mexican Peso (4,742 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,696 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (70 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,998 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-3,182 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,292 contracts), Bitcoin (-33 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the US Dollar Index bullish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the US Dollar Index fell this week for a second straight week and for the third time out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s bullish position has almost fallen by half over the past five weeks going from a total of +25,778 contracts on December 13th to a total of +13,358 contracts this week. These declines have now pushed the Dollar Index to the least bullish level for speculators since July 20th of 2021, a span of 78 weeks.

Since riding a strong bullish wave to a 274-week high on June 14th of 2022 (at +45,010 contracts), the US Dollar Index speculator positioning has been in a slow but steady downtrend that continued this week.

The US Dollar Index futures price has also been in a downtrend after ascending to a multi-year peak in September at the 114.74 level. That marked the best price level for the Dollar Index since 2002 and was the start of the recent slide that has brought the Dollar Index to its current level of 101.78 (for an approximate loss of 11 percent). Since September, most of the major currencies have gained against the Dollar and have made some moderate recoveries after falling to multi-decade lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,388	44	13,358	47	-15,570	51	2,212	41
EUR	753,915	92	126,984	74	-179,074	25	52,090	62
GBP	201,956	38	-24,697	48	31,436	55	-6,739	45
JPY	176,862	36	-22,961	55	18,084	44	4,877	63
CHF	34,300	16	-7,941	34	11,357	64	-3,416	46
CAD	132,346	18	-27,259	9	27,488	92	-229	30
AUD	128,213	28	-33,620	54	25,936	38	7,684	71
NZD	31,579	10	6,058	70	-6,686	31	628	59
MXN	274,227	84	-48,639	7	42,299	90	6,340	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	40,800	28	22,193	70	-23,748	30	1,555	79
Bitcoin	15,885	83	-627	66	337	0	290	20

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (70 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (47.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (43.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (73.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-19 percent), Bitcoin (-12 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-19.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-17.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-41.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-50.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	2.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.1	7.8
– Net Position:	13,358	-15,570	2,212
– Gross Longs:	31,694	1,031	5,292
– Gross Shorts:	18,336	16,601	3,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.0	-4.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.0	5.6
– Net Position:	126,984	-179,074	52,090
– Gross Longs:	228,279	416,510	94,476
– Gross Shorts:	101,295	595,584	42,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	25.2	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-5.4	27.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	64.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	49.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-24,697	31,436	-6,739
– Gross Longs:	41,469	130,575	24,051
– Gross Shorts:	66,166	99,139	30,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	55.4	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.3	5.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	65.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	54.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-22,961	18,084	4,877
– Gross Longs:	29,458	114,907	30,761
– Gross Shorts:	52,419	96,823	25,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	44.5	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-27.9	28.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	55.2	33.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	22.1	43.3
– Net Position:	-7,941	11,357	-3,416
– Gross Longs:	3,919	18,933	11,429
– Gross Shorts:	11,860	7,576	14,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.7	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	57.0	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	36.2	24.5
– Net Position:	-27,259	27,488	-229
– Gross Longs:	20,897	75,387	32,211
– Gross Shorts:	48,156	47,899	32,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	91.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	3.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	35.2	14.6
– Net Position:	-33,620	25,936	7,684
– Gross Longs:	28,593	71,052	26,348
– Gross Shorts:	62,213	45,116	18,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	38.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-12.6	24.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	50.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.5	10.4
– Net Position:	6,058	-6,686	628
– Gross Longs:	11,308	15,888	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,250	22,574	3,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	30.7	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-30.6	5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	41.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	26.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	42,299	6,340
– Gross Longs:	150,543	113,924	8,681
– Gross Shorts:	199,182	71,625	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	90.4	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.2	39.9	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	10.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.7	6.2
– Net Position:	22,193	-23,748	1,555
– Gross Longs:	32,429	4,270	4,096
– Gross Shorts:	10,236	28,018	2,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	30.2	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-6.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	6.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-627	337	290
– Gross Longs:	12,456	951	1,440
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	614	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	80.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	44.0	-4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 17th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 166,350 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,640 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 76.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered -52,355 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 20,452 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 74.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 126,984 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 72.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 74,143 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,851 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level sits at a 70.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was 6,058 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,292 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -126,321 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,051 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -42,014 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,298 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -545,057 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -133,699 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The speculator position was -26,745 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,006 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -680,655 net contracts this week with a drop of -57,504 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Metals Speculators boosted their Gold Bullish Bets higher for 7th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,011 contracts) with Gold (2,705 contracts) and Silver (2,455 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,158 contracts) and Palladium (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent streak of gains for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the past eleven weeks. The Gold position has now gone from a multi-year low total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +153,240 contracts this week which marks the highest weekly total of the past 29 weeks, dating back to June 28th.

The Gold futures price has been on the move higher since seeing a recent bottom in October around the $1,620.00 level. This week, the Gold futures closed at $1,928.20 per ounce which is the highest close since April and Gold is showing an approximate gain by 18 percent since the October bottom.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (32.6 percent)
Silver (48.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.5 percent)
Platinum (40.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.4 percent)
Palladium (11.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.3 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.7 percent)
Copper (11.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (-2.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (8.7 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 153,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 150,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	25.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	60.7	5.2
– Net Position:	153,240	-175,913	22,673
– Gross Longs:	246,874	122,814	48,128
– Gross Shorts:	93,634	298,727	25,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	64.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	32.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.8	7.6
– Net Position:	31,468	-45,367	13,899
– Gross Longs:	57,439	42,668	23,983
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	88,035	10,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	52.4	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	46.0	6.7
– Net Position:	16,238	-22,695	6,457
– Gross Longs:	84,910	69,997	19,961
– Gross Shorts:	68,672	92,692	13,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	49.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-14.2	21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	27.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	68.5	3.9
– Net Position:	23,544	-28,913	5,369
– Gross Longs:	40,387	19,831	8,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,843	48,744	2,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	59.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.6	11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	24.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-2,751	2,902	-151
– Gross Longs:	2,125	5,025	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	4,876	2,123	1,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	86.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	14.3	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

21 Jan

Bonds Speculators increased 10-Year Treasury Bearish Bets to 222-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (26,095 contracts) with the Eurodollar (1,683 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-133,699 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-57,504 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-6,620 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,022 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-28,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp decline in the 10-Year Treasury Bond speculator positioning. The 10-Year Bond large speculator positions fell this week by a total of -133,699 contracts and have now dropped for four consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have declined in six out of the past seven weeks as well. These last four weeks alone have added a total of -228,114 bearish contracts to the overall bearish position of -545,057 contracts. This weakness has driven the current speculator level to the most bearish point of the past 222 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2018.

Despite the current speculator sentiment, the 10-Year Bond prices have been edging a little higher since hitting a multi-year low in October. The 10-Year interest rate (rates rise as bond prices fall) is sitting around 3.50 percent currently after peaking in October at just above 4.33 percent.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,891,238	0	-1,053,852	34	1,265,098	64	-211,246	58
FedFunds	1,645,779	59	-86,235	29	105,583	73	-19,348	12
2-Year	2,335,967	25	-462,671	18	452,042	79	10,629	57
Long T-Bond	1,222,141	47	-192,393	22	170,932	72	21,461	70
10-Year	4,018,107	66	-545,057	0	615,855	95	-70,798	63
5-Year	4,159,392	60	-680,655	1	689,573	90	-8,918	79

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (29 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (23 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and 2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Eurodollar (33.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.7 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (-1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
Eurodollar (10.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,053,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,055,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	68.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,053,852	1,265,098	-211,246
– Gross Longs:	452,273	4,061,161	299,890
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,125	2,796,063	511,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	63.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-12.1	19.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	74.7	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-86,235	105,583	-19,348
– Gross Longs:	167,385	1,229,497	30,086
– Gross Shorts:	253,620	1,123,914	49,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.7	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.2	-30.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -462,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-462,671	452,042	10,629
– Gross Longs:	179,898	1,909,141	204,038
– Gross Shorts:	642,569	1,457,099	193,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	79.0	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-11.8	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -680,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -57,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	85.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	68.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-680,655	689,573	-8,918
– Gross Longs:	220,650	3,538,627	341,784
– Gross Shorts:	901,305	2,849,054	350,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	90.4	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-9.1	28.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -545,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -133,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -411,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-545,057	615,855	-70,798
– Gross Longs:	334,022	3,237,951	360,271
– Gross Shorts:	879,079	2,622,096	431,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	15.8	10.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -126,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-126,321	224,640	-98,319
– Gross Longs:	155,613	1,178,847	150,997
– Gross Shorts:	281,934	954,207	249,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.0	-10.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -192,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	81.3	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-192,393	170,932	21,461
– Gross Longs:	51,842	994,046	171,647
– Gross Shorts:	244,235	823,114	150,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	71.6	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	28.6	-2.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -385,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	59.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-385,428	342,092	43,336
– Gross Longs:	64,109	1,193,027	163,472
– Gross Shorts:	449,537	850,935	120,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	81.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.9	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

21 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Wheat bets to lowest in 192-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (38,078 contracts) with Soybeans (28,737 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,640 contracts) and Cocoa (477 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-12,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,862 contracts), Cotton (-9,991 contracts), Sugar (-1,015 contracts), Wheat (-2,298 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,604 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,851 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued declines in the Wheat speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Wheat fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the twelfth time in the past fifteen weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Wheat (currently at -42,014 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 192 weeks, dating back to May 14th of 2019.

Wheat prices have been under pressure as well with prices trading at near the lowest levels since 2021. Helping to keep Wheat sentiment and prices down have been better than expected plantings and supply of Wheat in the USA and globally.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,613,466	19	239,218	9	-255,599	92	16,381	26
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40
Natural Gas	1,082,458	24	-177,219	25	146,418	77	30,801	53
Brent	147,172	9	-25,980	62	23,414	37	2,566	44
Heating Oil	269,911	24	18,506	70	-40,612	28	22,106	75
Soybeans	651,328	17	169,065	64	-130,790	48	-38,275	6
Corn	1,251,033	8	271,873	65	-213,798	41	-58,075	11
Coffee	224,829	31	-26,745	0	24,251	100	2,494	34
Sugar	898,526	37	186,698	58	-233,144	36	46,446	65
Wheat	340,830	23	-42,014	0	45,261	100	-3,247	94

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (65 percent), Soybeans (64 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and the Lean Hogs (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.9 percent)
Sugar (58.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.5 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybeans (63.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (43.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.0 percent)
Live Cattle (72.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (79.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.7 percent)
Cotton (13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (44.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.2 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Live Cattle (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Cocoa (10 percent) and Corn (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-12 percent), Cotton (-8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-4.7 percent)
Sugar (1.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (-12.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybeans (25.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (25.7 percent)
Live Cattle (23.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (32.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-27.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.8 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.0 percent)
Cocoa (9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.3 percent)
Wheat (-2.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 271,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	44.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	61.7	14.1
– Net Position:	271,873	-213,798	-58,075
– Gross Longs:	376,732	558,706	118,719
– Gross Shorts:	104,859	772,504	176,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	41.5	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.0	-11.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	69.0	5.0
– Net Position:	186,698	-233,144	46,446
– Gross Longs:	273,666	387,186	91,248
– Gross Shorts:	86,968	620,330	44,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	36.3	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.0	4.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	55.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-26,745	24,251	2,494
– Gross Longs:	44,803	123,565	10,878
– Gross Shorts:	71,548	99,314	8,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	11.3	10.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 169,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	46.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.4	12.5
– Net Position:	169,065	-130,790	-38,275
– Gross Longs:	216,831	301,985	43,462
– Gross Shorts:	47,766	432,775	81,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	48.3	6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-23.0	-14.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	49.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	68.8	6.3
– Net Position:	59,495	-71,077	11,582
– Gross Longs:	89,394	187,762	35,188
– Gross Shorts:	29,899	258,839	23,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	55.5	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	-3.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 166,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	30.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.6	75.0	6.7
– Net Position:	166,350	-186,133	19,783
– Gross Longs:	181,071	124,549	47,680
– Gross Shorts:	14,721	310,682	27,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.3	1.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	30.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	51.6	12.5
– Net Position:	74,143	-67,709	-6,434
– Gross Longs:	126,737	95,035	32,866
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	162,744	39,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	20.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.7	-21.5	-13.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	43.0	13.1
– Net Position:	15,907	-10,939	-4,968
– Gross Longs:	63,073	74,842	21,157
– Gross Shorts:	47,166	85,781	26,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	84.2	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	21.6	32.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	55.4	5.6
– Net Position:	7,953	-9,382	1,429
– Gross Longs:	56,634	103,146	12,734
– Gross Shorts:	48,681	112,528	11,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	86.4	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.9	-3.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	27,698	-31,155	3,457
– Gross Longs:	97,065	138,394	13,026
– Gross Shorts:	69,367	169,549	9,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	56.6	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-9.4	-2.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	41.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.4	10.6
– Net Position:	-42,014	45,261	-3,247
– Gross Longs:	86,569	141,956	32,942
– Gross Shorts:	128,583	96,695	36,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	2.8	-1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

21 Jan

Stock Market Speculators cut back on their VIX bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with gains for this week was the VIX with a rise of 20,452 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Nasdaq-Mini (-12,482 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-4,787 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,869 contracts), S&P500-Mini (-13,644 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-1,471 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,106 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,056,472	4	-226,818	14	231,163	81	-4,345	25
Nikkei 225	14,138	10	-3,825	59	4,340	51	-515	22
Nasdaq-Mini	275,015	57	-20,633	64	30,544	45	-9,911	33
DowJones-Mini	82,660	46	-10,613	27	12,290	74	-1,677	32
VIX	326,900	49	-52,355	77	55,595	22	-3,240	76
Nikkei 225 Yen	37,043	14	7,971	59	-2,240	4	-5,731	68

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (77 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (59 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (14 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (16.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (29.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (63.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (34.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.2 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (15 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (8 percent), the Russell-Mini (6 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-4.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-25.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	53.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	36.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-52,355	55,595	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	53,609	176,081	28,892
– Gross Shorts:	105,964	120,486	32,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	22.1	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-15.3	3.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -226,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	73.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	62.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-226,818	231,163	-4,345
– Gross Longs:	260,337	1,518,121	234,865
– Gross Shorts:	487,155	1,286,958	239,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	81.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	4.7	-2.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	48.3	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	33.5	18.5
– Net Position:	-10,613	12,290	-1,677
– Gross Longs:	25,847	39,948	13,654
– Gross Shorts:	36,460	27,658	15,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	73.9	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-9.7	29.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	62.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	51.8	15.5
– Net Position:	-20,633	30,544	-9,911
– Gross Longs:	61,621	172,926	32,760
– Gross Shorts:	82,254	142,382	42,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	45.3	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	21.9	-2.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-62,915	59,423	3,492
– Gross Longs:	44,629	354,698	24,352
– Gross Shorts:	107,544	295,275	20,860
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	66.4	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.1	-8.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	61.2	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	30.5	24.3
– Net Position:	-3,825	4,340	-515
– Gross Longs:	2,560	8,653	2,914
– Gross Shorts:	6,385	4,313	3,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	51.4	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	13.4	-17.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	91.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	84.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-28,278	22,516	5,762
– Gross Longs:	18,717	324,872	11,276
– Gross Shorts:	46,995	302,356	5,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	86.7	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	23.7	8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

14 Jan

Currency Speculators pull back on Japanese Yen bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (11,487 contracts) with the EuroFX (5,067 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,995 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (2,577 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-9,155 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,510 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,516 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,189 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,221 contracts), Bitcoin (-983 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-130 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the Japanese Yen bearish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Yen rose by +11,487 contracts this week and have been higher for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Yen speculator bets have also gained in nine out of the past eleven weeks, going from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to a 21-week bearish low of just -35,377 contracts this week.

The Yen price has been strongly improving in recent trade against the US dollar as the Yen has gained by approximately 16 percent since hitting a multi-decade low in October. The USDJPY currency pair has fallen from around 152.09 in October to trading currently below 128.00 at the close of this week.

Helping the Yen’s trend change course has been the Bank of Japan altering its bond yield policy with the BOJ allowing its bond-band to expand. Also, there has been a decline in the yield differential between Japan and the US since October – aided by a moderation in US inflation data.

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,307	50	16,540	53	-19,280	45	2,740	46
EUR	746,163	88	134,982	76	-182,210	24	47,228	54
GBP	202,713	39	-29,456	44	35,268	58	-5,812	47
JPY	175,745	35	-35,377	47	34,488	52	889	55
CHF	33,266	13	-7,370	35	8,206	59	-836	55
CAD	133,888	19	-30,955	5	27,265	91	3,690	38
AUD	126,028	27	-33,690	54	32,210	43	1,480	56
NZD	27,566	1	7,350	74	-8,499	26	1,149	65
MXN	270,826	82	-53,381	5	47,206	92	6,175	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	33,429	18	21,701	69	-23,574	30	1,873	83
Bitcoin	14,891	76	-594	67	-29	0	623	27

Strength Scores led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Bitcoin (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (5 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (35 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.6 percent)
EuroFX (76.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (47.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (51.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (73.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (74.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.1 percent)
Bitcoin (66.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (83.7 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (18 percent), the Brazilian Real (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Bitcoin (-16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-17.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-50.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	2.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	48.3	7.2
– Net Position:	16,540	-19,280	2,740
– Gross Longs:	33,928	1,158	5,784
– Gross Shorts:	17,388	20,438	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.1	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-9.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	78.1	5.9
– Net Position:	134,982	-182,210	47,228
– Gross Longs:	238,623	400,775	91,275
– Gross Shorts:	103,641	582,985	44,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	24.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-7.8	23.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	68.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-29,456	35,268	-5,812
– Gross Longs:	36,007	138,532	23,559
– Gross Shorts:	65,463	103,264	29,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	58.0	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-9.5	13.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	48.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-35,377	34,488	889
– Gross Longs:	26,395	119,166	28,973
– Gross Shorts:	61,772	84,678	28,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	52.5	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-23.5	32.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	51.2	37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	26.5	40.2
– Net Position:	-7,370	8,206	-836
– Gross Longs:	3,668	17,034	12,542
– Gross Shorts:	11,038	8,828	13,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	58.5	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.4	16.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.1	24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	35.7	22.1
– Net Position:	-30,955	27,265	3,690
– Gross Longs:	22,166	75,060	33,283
– Gross Shorts:	53,121	47,795	29,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	91.4	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	11.1	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	31.3	15.1
– Net Position:	-33,690	32,210	1,480
– Gross Longs:	30,210	71,696	20,573
– Gross Shorts:	63,900	39,486	19,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	42.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-14.0	18.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	38.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	69.0	11.1
– Net Position:	7,350	-8,499	1,149
– Gross Longs:	12,607	10,520	4,206
– Gross Shorts:	5,257	19,019	3,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	26.5	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.2	-31.0	8.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.2	41.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.9	23.9	0.9
– Net Position:	-53,381	47,206	6,175
– Gross Longs:	149,517	111,970	8,593
– Gross Shorts:	202,898	64,764	2,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	92.5	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.9	50.0	-2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	12.9	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	83.4	5.0
– Net Position:	21,701	-23,574	1,873
– Gross Longs:	25,210	4,322	3,561
– Gross Shorts:	3,509	27,896	1,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	30.4	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.6	-1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	3.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	3.2	4.8
– Net Position:	-594	-29	623
– Gross Longs:	11,989	447	1,339
– Gross Shorts:	12,583	476	716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	63.1	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	36.5	3.8

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