COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 59

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators drop their Canadian Dollar bets fall to 218-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (8,449 contracts) with the EuroFX (4,886 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,668 contracts), Australian Dollar (1,632 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (387 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-25,106 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-14,597 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,042 contracts), the British Pound (-3,184 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,414 contracts) and Bitcoin (-519 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

CAD bets fall to 218-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative CAD positions fell this week by over -25,000 contracts and have now declined in five out of the past seven weeks. This recent bearishness has brought the overall net position (currently at -56,821 contracts) to the lowest level in the past 218 weeks, dating back all the way to January 15th of 2019. The CAD speculator strength score (range from 0 to 100) is currently at 0.0 percent while the 6-week speculator strength trend is at -22 percent.

The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend to start 2023 with the CAD futures (front month) price sitting currently at 0.7287. The CAD futures opened 2023 around the 0.7382 exchange rate and reached its highest level in late January at 0.7541 before trending lower.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,819	31	14,144	49	-16,708	49	2,564	45
EUR	737,437	70	144,842	74	-191,171	26	46,329	53
GBP	190,796	31	-20,498	51	25,506	51	-5,008	48
JPY	169,188	31	-66,345	28	72,484	71	-6,139	41
CHF	35,837	21	-7,297	35	12,611	66	-5,314	40
CAD	178,185	49	-56,821	0	64,449	100	-7,628	6
AUD	151,836	50	-38,459	49	50,554	57	-12,095	23
NZD	32,179	13	-8,783	30	8,896	67	-113	50
MXN	222,130	45	51,530	88	-56,413	13	4,883	86
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,222	30	24,857	67	-30,775	27	5,918	100
Bitcoin	14,049	70	-621	66	-103	0	724	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (67 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the British Pound (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (28 percent), New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) and the Swiss Franc (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.9 percent)
EuroFX (74.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (54.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (87.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (98.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (75.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (73 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent), the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) and the British Pound (-5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-23 percent), Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (8.5 percent)
Bitcoin (9.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (29.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	4.0	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	53.4	6.8
– Net Position:	14,144	-16,708	2,564
– Gross Longs:	26,258	1,338	4,864
– Gross Shorts:	12,114	18,046	2,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	49.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-1.9	-7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 144,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	56.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	82.6	5.6
– Net Position:	144,842	-191,171	46,329
– Gross Longs:	215,825	417,802	87,688
– Gross Shorts:	70,983	608,973	41,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.9	-0.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-20,498	25,506	-5,008
– Gross Longs:	28,652	129,030	23,376
– Gross Shorts:	49,150	103,524	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	51.4	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	-4.0	24.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -66,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.3	79.4	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	36.6	18.0
– Net Position:	-66,345	72,484	-6,139
– Gross Longs:	7,255	134,389	24,336
– Gross Shorts:	73,600	61,905	30,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	19.1	-3.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	54.6	27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	19.4	42.7
– Net Position:	-7,297	12,611	-5,314
– Gross Longs:	4,853	19,555	9,978
– Gross Shorts:	12,150	6,944	15,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	65.8	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.0	-3.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	71.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	35.6	21.0
– Net Position:	-56,821	64,449	-7,628
– Gross Longs:	18,812	127,798	29,717
– Gross Shorts:	75,633	63,349	37,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	5.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	22.1	-19.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	57.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	24.2	19.8
– Net Position:	-38,459	50,554	-12,095
– Gross Longs:	41,183	87,354	17,905
– Gross Shorts:	79,642	36,800	30,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	56.6	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	20.8	-42.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	67.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	39.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-8,783	8,896	-113
– Gross Longs:	6,765	21,576	3,392
– Gross Shorts:	15,548	12,680	3,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	67.5	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	45.6	3.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	50.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	76.3	1.0
– Net Position:	51,530	-56,413	4,883
– Gross Longs:	101,899	113,013	7,110
– Gross Shorts:	50,369	169,426	2,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	13.0	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.6	-68.9	2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	17.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	90.4	2.9
– Net Position:	24,857	-30,775	5,918
– Gross Longs:	27,681	7,401	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	2,824	38,176	1,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	5.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	26.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	4.7	41.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	3.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.7	3.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-621	-103	724
– Gross Longs:	10,851	429	1,450
– Gross Shorts:	11,472	532	726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	54.5	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-29.8	2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Mar

COT Metals Speculators pushed their Gold bullish bets to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (18,274 contracts) with Silver (4,681 contracts) and Copper (1,805 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,047 contracts) and Palladium (-550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets on the rise

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The Gold position has gone from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a new 7-week high at a total of +158,605 contracts this week with the five-week total of speculator bets showing a gain of +53,076 contracts. The speculator strength score (0 to 100 range) for Gold has risen to 47 percent while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has shown a rise of 13 percent.

The Gold futures price closed below the $1,995 price level this week after touching its highest point in just about a year over the $2,014.00 threshold on Monday. Gold has gained over 20 percent since its recent low levels in early November that saw the price fall to approximately $1,618.30.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30

Strength Scores led by Gold & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Gold (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Platinum (38 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (1 percent) and Copper (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (23.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.5 percent)
Copper (17.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.8 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.0 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.8 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for metals.

Palladium (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-40.7 percent)
Copper (-13.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.1 percent)
Platinum (-2.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-12.8 percent)
Palladium (-26.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 158,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	25.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.0	4.8
– Net Position:	158,605	-183,568	24,963
– Gross Longs:	237,891	121,678	47,624
– Gross Shorts:	79,286	305,246	22,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	53.1	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-11.8	2.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	40.9	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	51.5	11.0
– Net Position:	3,462	-12,681	9,219
– Gross Longs:	41,325	48,685	22,328
– Gross Shorts:	37,863	61,366	13,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	78.5	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	20.6	-38.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	46.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	43.1	6.3
– Net Position:	-12,351	7,536	4,815
– Gross Longs:	51,095	94,353	17,564
– Gross Shorts:	63,446	86,817	12,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	79.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	15.9	-24.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	39.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	62.8	4.6
– Net Position:	9,526	-14,141	4,615
– Gross Longs:	25,199	24,399	7,431
– Gross Shorts:	15,673	38,540	2,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	64.2	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	4.9	-17.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	73.0	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.3	9.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-7,018	7,369	-351
– Gross Longs:	1,633	8,498	1,234
– Gross Shorts:	8,651	1,129	1,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.6	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	25.1	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

26 Mar

COT Bonds Speculators boosting 2-Year Bond bets after record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (67,316 contracts) with the Fed Funds (64,355 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (50,579 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34,396 contracts) and the Eurodollar (23,399 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-74,356 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-63,663 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-436 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

2-Year Bonds bets rising after record low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the rapid improvement of the speculator positioning in the 2-Year Bonds. Large speculative positions for the 2-Year Bond rose this week for a fifth consecutive week and by a total of 232,489 contracts in just the past five weeks. The 2-Year Bond speculator positions hit an all-time record low of -696,686 net contracts on February 14th before starting this recent five-week positive streak that has taken the current net position down to -464,197 contracts. This week’s net position marks the least bearish level of the past nine weeks.

The 2-Year Bond futures price have rebounded sharply over the past month due to a combination of a banking crisis and the sentiment that the Federal Reserve will slow or pause the pace of interest rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the current time, traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May but as the calendar progresses, traders are starting to forecast that the Fed will be cutting rates before the end of this year. Rate cuts would positively effect the bonds markets and especially the 2-Year as it is heavily influenced by Fed policy on the shorter end of the yield curve. This week the 2-Year Bond futures price closed near 103.29 and at the highest close since September.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,779,104	0	-637,971	58	833,869	42	-195,898	61
FedFunds	1,847,792	76	-24,352	37	30,578	64	-6,226	79
2-Year	2,314,664	49	-464,197	30	444,096	70	20,101	65
Long T-Bond	1,235,097	67	-99,413	52	43,617	26	55,796	100
10-Year	4,155,764	76	-571,029	7	540,067	79	30,962	91
5-Year	4,350,302	97	-631,568	12	626,445	83	5,123	82

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (58 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (52 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
Eurodollar (57.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.1 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (10 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (5.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.3 percent)
Eurodollar (10.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.4 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -637,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	66.8	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	49.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-637,971	833,869	-195,898
– Gross Longs:	334,819	3,193,023	251,700
– Gross Shorts:	972,790	2,359,154	447,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	41.5	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.5	9.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,355 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	74.9	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,352	30,578	-6,226
– Gross Longs:	161,900	1,414,738	41,466
– Gross Shorts:	186,252	1,384,160	47,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	63.6	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.7	8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -464,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 67,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -531,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-464,197	444,096	20,101
– Gross Longs:	146,530	1,959,237	188,296
– Gross Shorts:	610,727	1,515,141	168,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	69.7	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-24.0	-12.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -631,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -74,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -557,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	82.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	68.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-631,568	626,445	5,123
– Gross Longs:	389,000	3,586,593	335,724
– Gross Shorts:	1,020,568	2,960,148	330,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	82.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-1.4	-6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -571,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -507,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	80.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-571,029	540,067	30,962
– Gross Longs:	379,104	3,329,656	372,551
– Gross Shorts:	950,133	2,789,589	341,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	79.3	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-12.7	24.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 34,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	63.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-158,126	218,538	-60,412
– Gross Longs:	153,805	1,224,366	176,050
– Gross Shorts:	311,931	1,005,828	236,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	81.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	-3.9	29.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 50,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	74.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-99,413	43,617	55,796
– Gross Longs:	102,678	959,632	169,332
– Gross Shorts:	202,091	916,015	113,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	26.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-36.2	16.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -443,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -443,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	84.6	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	57.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-443,962	391,927	52,035
– Gross Longs:	62,308	1,206,968	157,069
– Gross Shorts:	506,270	815,041	105,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.1	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	4.6	14.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

26 Mar

COT Large Speculators have dropped their Corn bullish bets to near 130-week lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Coffee & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (15,699 contracts) with Coffee (6,386 contracts), Wheat (6,111 contracts), Cocoa (5,827 contracts) and Soybeans (3,793 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-25,773 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-24,378 contracts), Sugar (-20,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,936 contracts), Cotton (-8,794 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-1,481 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent sharp decreases in the Corn speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn have been in somewhat of a free-fall over the past five weeks (despite this week’s gain) as Corn bets have dropped for four out of the past five weeks and by a total of -245,236 contracts over that time-frame. The speculator positioning have sharply declined from a total of +304,712 contracts on February 14th to a total of just +59,476 contracts through Tuesday.

The last two weeks marked the first time that net positions have been under +100,000 contracts since September of 2020, a span of about 130 weeks. Corn’s speculator strength score level has dipped to 37.6 percent while its 6-week strength score trend has illuminated its recent weakness with a -28.5 percent trend score.

Corn’s futures price has risen for the past two weeks but is off the lofty heights of 2022 when prices reached highs in the 750-800 range. This week Corn closed out near the 644.00 level after bouncing off of support at the 600 level over the previous few weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,791,902	35	154,341	0	-178,904	100	24,563	40
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30
Natural Gas	1,283,037	65	-144,681	14	113,440	85	31,241	54
Brent	149,302	11	-46,349	20	43,543	78	2,806	47
Heating Oil	279,105	28	9,829	45	-22,477	60	12,648	42
Soybeans	696,280	26	171,787	57	-141,848	48	-29,939	22
Corn	1,349,372	21	59,476	38	3,793	72	-63,269	15
Coffee	201,018	13	18,696	47	-17,673	58	-1,023	0
Sugar	929,418	55	210,656	66	-258,522	29	47,866	67
Wheat	370,297	49	-59,203	12	59,325	89	-122	90

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (77 percent) and Cocoa (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (66 percent), Soybeans (57 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (37.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (35.6 percent)
Sugar (66.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.4 percent)
Coffee (46.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (77.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (90.0 percent)
Live Cattle (56.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (75.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (67.7 percent)
Wheat (11.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.6 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (21 percent) and Coffee (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and represent the only two positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-28 percent), Cotton (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lowest trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-28.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-32.3 percent)
Sugar (-8.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (17.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.6 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-28.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	49.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.2	13.1
– Net Position:	59,476	3,793	-63,269
– Gross Longs:	327,137	667,983	113,622
– Gross Shorts:	267,661	664,190	176,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	72.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	29.6	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 210,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 231,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	65.9	5.7
– Net Position:	210,656	-258,522	47,866
– Gross Longs:	302,634	353,905	101,185
– Gross Shorts:	91,978	612,427	53,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	29.0	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.8	1.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	49.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	58.3	4.2
– Net Position:	18,696	-17,673	-1,023
– Gross Longs:	43,072	99,606	7,452
– Gross Shorts:	24,376	117,279	8,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	58.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-14.6	-24.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 171,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	64.9	11.2
– Net Position:	171,787	-141,848	-29,939
– Gross Longs:	210,762	310,325	47,727
– Gross Shorts:	38,975	452,173	77,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	47.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.8	18.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	56.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-567	1,924	-1,357
– Gross Longs:	74,741	259,796	29,346
– Gross Shorts:	75,308	257,872	30,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.2	-26.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 133,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	36.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.2	71.8	6.8
– Net Position:	133,343	-150,414	17,071
– Gross Longs:	155,660	157,931	46,260
– Gross Shorts:	22,317	308,345	29,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	24.0	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	13.9	6.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 69,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	28.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	49.4	12.4
– Net Position:	69,700	-67,647	-2,053
– Gross Longs:	118,518	88,370	37,174
– Gross Shorts:	48,818	156,017	39,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	39.2	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	25.5	23.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,717 net contracts.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	28.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-17,653	17,350	303
– Gross Longs:	63,404	80,723	25,180
– Gross Shorts:	81,057	63,373	24,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.4	-1.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,788 net contracts.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	50.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-11,582	14,226	-2,644
– Gross Longs:	51,426	99,630	11,525
– Gross Shorts:	63,008	85,404	14,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	19.5	-32.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.5	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.8	3.1
– Net Position:	37,846	-42,636	4,790
– Gross Longs:	96,676	143,115	15,642
– Gross Shorts:	58,830	185,751	10,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.7	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.8	40.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	35.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	19.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-59,203	59,325	-122
– Gross Longs:	105,293	133,069	35,982
– Gross Shorts:	164,496	73,744	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	89.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.7	10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

26 Mar

COT Stock Market Speculators raised their SP500-Mini bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,856 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,438 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,352 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-82,661 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19,234 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the bearish bets in the S&P500-Mini speculative positions. The large speculator position in S&P500-Mini futures dropped this week by over -80,000 contracts and fell for the second time in three weeks. The S&P500-Mini bets have now been in a bearish net position for the past 40 straight weeks, dating back to June 14th of 2022.

The current overall speculator level is currently at a highly bearish net position level of -202,480 speculator contracts with a bearish-extreme strength score level (18.7 percent) and while the 6-week strength trend actually posted a small gain of 2.8 percent (see strength scores further below).

The S&P500 stock futures price has been very resilient over the past month with a combination of rate hikes and a banking crisis not being able to knock the price from its short-term uptrend that started in October. The S&P500 stock futures price closed the week right around the psychological level of 4000.00 after making small gains in the past two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,149,005	12	-202,480	19	266,455	84	-63,975	13
Nikkei 225	10,419	0	-930	73	795	34	135	30
Nasdaq-Mini	214,876	22	-5,120	72	16,858	37	-11,738	31
DowJones-Mini	81,747	41	-22,148	17	30,063	99	-7,915	0
VIX	330,622	57	-49,649	78	52,093	20	-2,444	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	34,599	9	3,577	45	8,390	34	-11,967	63

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (19 percent) are the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (73.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (50.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent), the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) and the VIX (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (19.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (5.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (18.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (12.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	53.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-49,649	52,093	-2,444
– Gross Longs:	58,803	175,971	26,589
– Gross Shorts:	108,452	123,878	29,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.8	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-12.9	20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -202,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -82,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	65.8	12.6
– Net Position:	-202,480	266,455	-63,975
– Gross Longs:	203,125	1,681,318	205,770
– Gross Shorts:	405,605	1,414,863	269,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	84.3	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	7.8	-14.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	67.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	30.7	22.6
– Net Position:	-22,148	30,063	-7,915
– Gross Longs:	15,604	55,161	10,581
– Gross Shorts:	37,752	25,098	18,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	98.9	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.8	45.9	-30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	59.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	51.3	20.2
– Net Position:	-5,120	16,858	-11,738
– Gross Longs:	53,063	127,004	31,697
– Gross Shorts:	58,183	110,146	43,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	36.9	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-8.2	6.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -44,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	85.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	76.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,988	44,694	294
– Gross Longs:	40,762	411,188	22,631
– Gross Shorts:	85,750	366,494	22,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	55.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-11.9	-27.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.6	26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.9	25.0
– Net Position:	-930	795	135
– Gross Longs:	2,200	5,476	2,743
– Gross Shorts:	3,130	4,681	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	34.0	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-13.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	87.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-14,077	7,542	6,535
– Gross Longs:	30,891	348,705	8,454
– Gross Shorts:	44,968	341,163	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	68.1	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.8	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Mar

Currency COT Charts: February 21st data shows Speculator bets led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower through February 21st as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,119 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (2,794 contracts), EuroFX (1,162 contracts), the US Dollar Index (224 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (948 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-6,186 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,009 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,409 contracts), the British Pound (-1,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-215 contracts) and Bitcoin (-29 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	36,022	36	12,198	45	-16,640	49	4,442	65
EUR	789,898	97	165,068	84	-213,818	17	48,750	57
GBP	213,502	45	-21,416	51	37,641	60	-16,225	26
JPY	186,100	41	-34,029	48	46,889	59	-12,860	27
CHF	39,087	33	-6,520	37	12,058	65	-5,538	39
CAD	151,896	32	-37,503	0	39,753	100	-2,250	26
AUD	123,456	25	-24,788	62	25,049	38	-261	52
NZD	29,888	6	8,788	78	-9,024	25	236	54
MXN	277,353	86	-36,873	14	31,458	83	5,415	90
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	47,247	36	30,533	79	-32,115	21	1,582	80
Bitcoin	16,501	87	-812	63	438	0	374	21

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) lead the currency markets through February 21st. The New Zealand Dollar (78 percent), Bitcoin (63 percent) and the Australian Dollar (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (44.9 percent)
EuroFX (84.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (84.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (51.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (37.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (61.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (58.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (77.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (78.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.1 percent)
Bitcoin (62.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.3 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (9 percent) led the past six weeks trends for the currencies through February 21st. The Australian Dollar (8 percent), the Mexican Peso (8 percent) and the British Pound (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) led the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-7 percent), Bitcoin (-4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.7 percent)
EuroFX (10.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (4.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing equaled a net position of 12,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,974 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	2.5	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	48.7	6.6
– Net Position:	12,198	-16,640	4,442
– Gross Longs:	26,469	909	6,832
– Gross Shorts:	14,271	17,549	2,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	49.3	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	4.2	18.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing equaled a net position of 165,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 1,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,906 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	56.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	83.4	5.4
– Net Position:	165,068	-213,818	48,750
– Gross Longs:	236,414	444,658	91,704
– Gross Shorts:	71,346	658,476	42,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	16.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-9.8	2.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing equaled a net position of -21,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,795 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	67.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	49.4	17.1
– Net Position:	-21,416	37,641	-16,225
– Gross Longs:	45,475	143,077	20,231
– Gross Shorts:	66,891	105,436	36,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	59.7	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	1.6	-20.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing totaled a net position of -34,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -6,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,843 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	68.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.9	19.3
– Net Position:	-34,029	46,889	-12,860
– Gross Longs:	32,486	126,777	23,044
– Gross Shorts:	66,515	79,888	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	58.5	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	6.0	-27.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing amounted to a net position of -6,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,468 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	58.0	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	27.1	37.5
– Net Position:	-6,520	12,058	-5,538
– Gross Longs:	7,243	22,668	9,110
– Gross Shorts:	13,763	10,610	14,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	64.9	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	6.4	-15.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing totaled a net position of -37,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,494 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	59.6	23.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	33.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-37,503	39,753	-2,250
– Gross Longs:	21,889	90,489	34,967
– Gross Shorts:	59,392	50,736	37,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	10.2	-11.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing was a net position of -24,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,907 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	49.0	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	28.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-24,788	25,049	-261
– Gross Longs:	38,492	60,543	21,994
– Gross Shorts:	63,280	35,494	22,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	37.6	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-5.3	-4.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing amounted to a net position of 8,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,003 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	30.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	60.2	12.7
– Net Position:	8,788	-9,024	236
– Gross Longs:	15,561	8,965	4,026
– Gross Shorts:	6,773	17,989	3,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.7	25.2	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-1.2	-10.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing equaled a net position of -36,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly advance of 2,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,667 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	41.0	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	29.7	1.2
– Net Position:	-36,873	31,458	5,415
– Gross Longs:	152,675	113,816	8,689
– Gross Shorts:	189,548	82,358	3,274
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	83.0	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-7.9	-4.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing equaled a net position of 30,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,942 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	17.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	85.7	4.6
– Net Position:	30,533	-32,115	1,582
– Gross Longs:	35,137	8,357	3,733
– Gross Shorts:	4,604	40,472	2,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	21.4	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-9.0	-3.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing was a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lowering of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	4.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	2.3	6.2
– Net Position:	-812	438	374
– Gross Longs:	12,188	810	1,398
– Gross Shorts:	13,000	372	1,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.8	78.5	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	20.8	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Mar

COT Metals Charts: February 21st data showed Speculator bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower through February 21st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,560 contracts) with Gold (1,572 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-3,093 contracts), Silver (-1,604 contracts) and Palladium (-199 contracts) with also having lower bets through February 21st.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	422,648	0	107,101	21	-129,355	77	22,254	36
Silver	123,906	3	9,902	32	-23,050	66	13,148	39
Copper	219,205	58	2,049	35	-8,510	62	6,461	63
Palladium	11,943	84	-5,188	0	5,552	100	-364	20
Platinum	67,499	58	2,905	22	-8,394	76	5,489	42

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Copper (35 percent) led the metals markets through February 21st. Silver (32 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.0 percent)
Silver (32.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (34.7 percent)
Copper (34.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (28.2 percent)
Platinum (22.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (29.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (-7 percent) led the past six weeks trends for metals through February 21st as all metals were in negative trend territory.

Platinum (-64 percent) led the downside trend scores with Palladium (-30 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.5 percent)
Silver (-27.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-27.7 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-0.7 percent)
Platinum (-64.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-56.6 percent)
Palladium (-30.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-27.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing that week equaled a net position of 107,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,529 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	28.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	58.8	5.1
– Net Position:	107,101	-129,355	22,254
– Gross Longs:	210,185	119,040	43,956
– Gross Shorts:	103,084	248,395	21,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	76.7	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.9	0.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 9,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,506 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	36.6	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	55.2	9.3
– Net Position:	9,902	-23,050	13,148
– Gross Longs:	44,985	45,388	24,663
– Gross Shorts:	35,083	68,438	11,515
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	66.0	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	24.1	-4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 2,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,511 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	42.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.8	6.4
– Net Position:	2,049	-8,510	6,461
– Gross Longs:	73,395	94,047	20,560
– Gross Shorts:	71,346	102,557	14,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	61.6	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	6.1	2.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of 2,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -3,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,998 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	38.0	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.4	4.7
– Net Position:	2,905	-8,394	5,489
– Gross Longs:	28,058	25,638	8,655
– Gross Shorts:	25,153	34,032	3,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	76.1	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.2	53.7	24.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing equaled a net position of -5,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,989 net contracts.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	21.8	14.5
– Net Position:	-5,188	5,552	-364
– Gross Longs:	1,913	8,159	1,372
– Gross Shorts:	7,101	2,607	1,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.2	32.2	-31.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

11 Mar

Bonds COT Charts: February 21st data shows Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher through February 21st as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (62,275 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (30,404 contracts), the Fed Funds (22,320 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,048 contracts), Eurodollar (24,267 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (3,194 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18,345 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-9,858 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,785,434	0	-1,008,528	35	1,260,816	64	-252,288	49
FedFunds	1,810,074	73	-90,024	29	104,969	73	-14,945	44
2-Year	2,884,053	71	-693,492	0	657,116	100	36,376	68
Long T-Bond	1,307,317	86	-154,816	34	125,285	55	29,531	86
10-Year	4,335,634	88	-500,660	11	590,357	92	-89,697	59
5-Year	4,387,851	84	-599,249	16	631,381	84	-32,132	72

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (35 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (34 percent) led the bond markets through February 21st. The Fed Funds (29 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), 10-Year Bonds (11 percent), Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (16.1 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (34.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
Eurodollar (34.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.1 percent)

Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (3 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds through February 21st. The Eurodollar (1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-30.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-22.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-10.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-0.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -1,008,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly advance of 24,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,032,795 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	67.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	46.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-1,008,528	1,260,816	-252,288
– Gross Longs:	561,343	3,925,149	263,818
– Gross Shorts:	1,569,871	2,664,333	516,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	63.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	0.0	-10.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -90,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 22,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,344 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	75.0	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	69.2	2.9
– Net Position:	-90,024	104,969	-14,945
– Gross Longs:	146,386	1,357,910	36,925
– Gross Shorts:	236,410	1,252,941	51,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	72.6	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.9	5.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -693,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -696,686 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	79.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	56.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-693,492	657,116	36,376
– Gross Longs:	193,928	2,288,617	325,019
– Gross Shorts:	887,420	1,631,501	288,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	100.0	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.3	28.1	14.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -599,249 contracts in the data reported through TuesdayFebruary 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -9,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,391 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	66.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-599,249	631,381	-32,132
– Gross Longs:	331,329	3,534,403	401,556
– Gross Shorts:	930,578	2,903,022	433,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	83.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.0	0.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -500,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 62,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -562,935 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	63.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-500,660	590,357	-89,697
– Gross Longs:	423,167	3,337,222	425,774
– Gross Shorts:	923,827	2,746,865	515,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.1	91.6	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	12.0	-3.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -139,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decline of -18,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121,431 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	74.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	60.9	18.1
– Net Position:	-139,776	216,868	-77,092
– Gross Longs:	152,355	1,175,266	207,505
– Gross Shorts:	292,131	958,398	284,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	6.0	11.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -154,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 30,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,220 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	74.3	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	64.7	13.2
– Net Position:	-154,816	125,285	29,531
– Gross Longs:	86,475	971,509	202,158
– Gross Shorts:	241,291	846,224	172,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	55.3	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.6	1.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing the week came in at a net position of -403,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 14,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -417,420 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	81.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	57.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-403,372	363,974	39,398
– Gross Longs:	81,167	1,228,622	180,433
– Gross Shorts:	484,539	864,648	141,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	85.4	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	12.5	5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

11 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: February 21st Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher through February 21st as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (12,163 contracts), Russell-Mini (9,360 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (8,755 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (3,092 contracts), Nikkei 225 (260 contracts) and VIX (89 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The market with the declines in speculator bets was DowJones-Mini (-9,507 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,074,486	4	-234,291	13	241,153	83	-6,862	25
Nikkei 225	12,849	6	-2,022	68	1,824	39	198	31
Nasdaq-Mini	268,297	53	-14,069	67	34,620	48	-20,551	13
DowJones-Mini	91,288	58	-16,245	28	17,594	74	-1,349	34
VIX	333,082	51	-56,108	74	62,408	27	-6,300	61
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,957	25	12,005	71	431	12	-12,436	51

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (74 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (71 percent) led the stock markets through February 21st. The Nikkei 225 (68 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) came in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (74.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (10.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (49.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (67.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (62.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (39.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (67.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.2 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (12 percent) led the six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (9 percent), the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) and the Russell-Mini (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-16 percent) led the downside trend scores with the S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-3.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-14.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-15.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -56,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 89 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,197 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	55.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	36.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-56,108	62,408	-6,300
– Gross Longs:	51,233	184,968	23,405
– Gross Shorts:	107,341	122,560	29,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.7	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-11.6	3.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -234,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 12,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -246,454 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	74.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	62.7	12.5
– Net Position:	-234,291	241,153	-6,862
– Gross Longs:	231,808	1,542,524	251,654
– Gross Shorts:	466,099	1,301,371	258,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	82.5	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	5.2	-3.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -16,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -9,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,738 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	50.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	31.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-16,245	17,594	-1,349
– Gross Longs:	27,344	45,982	13,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,589	28,388	15,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	73.6	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	10.1	11.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -14,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 8,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,824 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	63.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	50.6	20.7
– Net Position:	-14,069	34,620	-20,551
– Gross Longs:	57,849	170,386	34,896
– Gross Shorts:	71,918	135,766	55,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	47.8	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	12.7	-28.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing reached a net position of -54,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 9,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,908 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	81.7	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	70.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-54,548	48,858	5,690
– Gross Longs:	44,927	355,135	25,214
– Gross Shorts:	99,475	306,277	19,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	58.0	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.2	6.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -2,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,282 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	49.0	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	34.8	24.4
– Net Position:	-2,022	1,824	198
– Gross Longs:	3,225	6,296	3,328
– Gross Shorts:	5,247	4,472	3,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	38.8	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-4.5	2.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing the week reached a net position of -14,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly gain of 3,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,060 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	88.3	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	86.2	1.5
– Net Position:	-14,968	8,460	6,508
– Gross Longs:	32,258	350,496	12,286
– Gross Shorts:	47,226	342,036	5,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.0	69.2	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.8	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Mar

Soft Commodities COT Charts: February 21st data showed Speculators boosted bets of Cocoa & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher that week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (17,227 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,584 contracts) with Coffee (7,266 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,105 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,600 contracts), Live Cattle (3,446 contracts) and Soybeans (1,374 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Corn (-21,689 contracts) with Wheat (-13,364 contracts), Cotton (-14,119 contracts) and Sugar (-5,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Feb-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,756,029	32	219,671	4	-241,297	96	21,626	35
Gold	422,648	0	107,101	21	-129,355	77	22,254	36
Silver	123,906	3	9,902	32	-23,050	66	13,148	39
Copper	219,205	58	2,049	35	-8,510	62	6,461	63
Palladium	11,943	84	-5,188	0	5,552	100	-364	20
Platinum	67,499	58	2,905	22	-8,394	76	5,489	42
Natural Gas	1,270,686	63	-179,264	17	141,515	82	37,749	69
Brent	150,907	12	-39,900	33	36,847	65	3,053	51
Heating Oil	259,558	20	17,565	67	-26,091	45	8,526	28
Soybeans	731,529	34	193,260	67	-150,141	45	-43,119	0
Corn	1,340,322	20	283,023	66	-209,635	42	-73,388	6
Coffee	196,128	9	12,316	40	-14,198	62	1,882	26
Sugar	926,553	53	233,338	74	-277,742	23	44,404	63
Wheat	359,360	42	-47,488	1	47,552	97	-64	100

Strength Scores were led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (100 percent) led the softs markets on February 21st. Sugar (74 percent), Cocoa (69 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (1 percent), Cotton (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (10 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Soybean Oil (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (74.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (76.0 percent)
Coffee (40.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (32.6 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.1 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (10.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.0 percent)
Cotton (5.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.8 percent)
Cocoa (69.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.4 percent)
Wheat (0.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.9 percent)

Coffee & Live Cattle topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (28 percent) and Live Cattle (28 percent) led the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (21 percent), Soybeans (20 percent) and Sugar (16 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent) led the downside trend scores that week with Soybean Oil (-18 percent), Cotton (-16 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (15.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.6 percent)
Coffee (27.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.0 percent)
Soybeans (19.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (27.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-25.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-53.0 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.1 percent)
Cocoa (20.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.1 percent)
Wheat (-8.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing equaled a net position of 283,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -21,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,712 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	57.5	14.0
– Net Position:	283,023	-209,635	-73,388
– Gross Longs:	414,502	561,129	114,376
– Gross Shorts:	131,479	770,764	187,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	42.0	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-3.8	-16.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing equaled a net position of 233,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,826 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	39.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	69.5	5.6
– Net Position:	233,338	-277,742	44,404
– Gross Longs:	317,876	366,001	95,884
– Gross Shorts:	84,538	643,743	51,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	23.5	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-13.0	-0.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 12,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 7,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,050 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	46.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	53.5	4.1
– Net Position:	12,316	-14,198	1,882
– Gross Longs:	44,122	90,640	10,018
– Gross Shorts:	31,806	104,838	8,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	61.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-25.4	-21.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 193,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,886 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	65.7	12.4
– Net Position:	193,260	-150,141	-43,119
– Gross Longs:	239,615	330,719	47,851
– Gross Shorts:	46,355	480,860	90,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	44.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-15.9	-11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 36,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,177 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	52.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	63.1	5.2
– Net Position:	36,282	-46,887	10,605
– Gross Longs:	86,110	240,461	34,271
– Gross Shorts:	49,828	287,348	23,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	70.7	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.4	5.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 175,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 3,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,351 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	33.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	75.6	7.0
– Net Position:	175,951	-191,708	15,757
– Gross Longs:	190,333	154,817	48,064
– Gross Shorts:	14,382	346,525	32,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-6.0	-36.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 104,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,828 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	23.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	51.6	13.1
– Net Position:	104,274	-95,188	-9,086
– Gross Longs:	151,310	78,368	35,012
– Gross Shorts:	47,036	173,556	44,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-26.0	-11.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,880 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	35.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	33.8	12.9
– Net Position:	1,704	2,763	-4,467
– Gross Longs:	65,678	74,070	22,814
– Gross Shorts:	63,974	71,307	27,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.2	94.8	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	25.6	10.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -2,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -14,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,150 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	51.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	49.9	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,969	2,542	427
– Gross Longs:	51,460	94,938	12,306
– Gross Shorts:	54,429	92,396	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	94.7	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.7	-10.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 46,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 17,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,858 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	39.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	57.4	3.0
– Net Position:	46,085	-51,594	5,509
– Gross Longs:	105,772	117,967	14,353
– Gross Shorts:	59,687	169,561	8,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	27.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-23.2	15.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -47,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -13,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,124 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	39.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	25.8	10.3
– Net Position:	-47,488	47,552	-64
– Gross Longs:	92,453	140,224	36,892
– Gross Shorts:	139,941	92,672	36,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	96.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.7	17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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