COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 58

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	27,306	17	14,861	50	-16,574	49	1,713	35
EUR	732,979	64	144,649	74	-192,723	25	48,074	56
GBP	226,505	53	46,608	100	-59,003	0	12,395	82
JPY	238,556	71	-107,656	3	118,272	93	-10,616	32
CHF	36,128	22	-4,851	42	5,236	54	-385	56
CAD	184,106	51	-33,543	23	18,758	69	14,785	56
AUD	149,898	44	-49,616	39	50,986	57	-1,370	49
NZD	32,401	13	-2,659	46	4,441	57	-1,782	29
MXN	224,897	46	99,718	100	-103,040	0	3,322	32
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	52,991	43	25,902	69	-23,418	36	-2,484	24
Bitcoin	15,687	78	397	84	-927	0	530	25

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.8	3.1	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	63.8	9.5
– Net Position:	14,861	-16,574	1,713
– Gross Longs:	20,972	835	4,318
– Gross Shorts:	6,111	17,409	2,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.4	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.3	2.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	80.7	6.1
– Net Position:	144,649	-192,723	48,074
– Gross Longs:	229,399	398,646	92,826
– Gross Shorts:	84,750	591,369	44,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	25.4	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	14.0	-10.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	32.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	58.6	10.8
– Net Position:	46,608	-59,003	12,395
– Gross Longs:	101,567	73,692	36,837
– Gross Shorts:	54,959	132,695	24,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-30.4	10.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	73.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	23.9	16.2
– Net Position:	-107,656	118,272	-10,616
– Gross Longs:	32,244	175,201	27,983
– Gross Shorts:	139,900	56,929	38,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.6	93.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	24.0	-5.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.1	33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	28.6	34.8
– Net Position:	-4,851	5,236	-385
– Gross Longs:	8,322	15,585	12,170
– Gross Shorts:	13,173	10,349	12,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	53.6	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	-0.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	62.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	52.2	12.8
– Net Position:	-33,543	18,758	14,785
– Gross Longs:	28,187	114,925	38,400
– Gross Shorts:	61,730	96,167	23,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	68.9	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-15.8	32.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	52.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	18.9	15.2
– Net Position:	-49,616	50,986	-1,370
– Gross Longs:	45,743	79,300	21,444
– Gross Shorts:	95,359	28,314	22,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	56.9	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-4.4	15.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	57.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	43.6	14.1
– Net Position:	-2,659	4,441	-1,782
– Gross Longs:	10,867	18,573	2,794
– Gross Shorts:	13,526	14,132	4,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	57.0	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	0.4	-24.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	42.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	87.9	2.2
– Net Position:	99,718	-103,040	3,322
– Gross Longs:	121,005	94,733	8,262
– Gross Shorts:	21,287	197,773	4,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-15.8	-20.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.9	20.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	64.4	15.3
– Net Position:	25,902	-23,418	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	36,535	10,685	5,625
– Gross Shorts:	10,633	34,103	8,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	35.9	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	16.1	-35.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	1.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.5	7.5	4.6
– Net Position:	397	-927	530
– Gross Longs:	11,932	250	1,259
– Gross Shorts:	11,535	1,177	729
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	22.5	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	8.6	-4.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

24 Jun

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,794 contracts) with Gold (2,766 contracts), Palladium (501 contracts) and Steel (175 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-3,678 contracts) and Platinum (-2,500 contracts) having lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by +14,794 contracts this week following a gain by +13,050 contracts last week. The speculator position has now risen by over +37,590 contracts in total over the past three weeks.

This renewed positive sentiment has brought the net position standing back into a small bullish level after spending the past eight weeks in bearish territory.

Despite the bullish return of speculators, Copper prices closed out the week lower following three straight weeks of gains. The futures price touched a six-week high on Thursday at 3.967 before turning lower and finishing the week at 3.8035.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	438,037	7	162,975	49	-186,537	52	23,562	39
Silver	152,633	40	20,058	47	-36,210	50	16,152	56
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	12,304	87	-6,635	5	7,214	96	-579	7
Platinum	69,436	70	19,472	61	-25,052	42	5,580	43

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (32.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.7 percent)
Platinum (60.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (66.3 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (67.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.3 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-20 percent), Silver (-18 percent) and Gold (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-17.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (23.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.6 percent)
Platinum (-19.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.4 percent)
Steel (5.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 162,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	27.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	70.3	5.4
– Net Position:	162,975	-186,537	23,562
– Gross Longs:	229,308	121,419	47,402
– Gross Shorts:	66,333	307,956	23,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	51.9	39.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	13.9	-7.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	30.1	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	53.8	7.9
– Net Position:	20,058	-36,210	16,152
– Gross Longs:	52,547	45,941	28,208
– Gross Shorts:	32,489	82,151	12,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	50.0	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	12.1	13.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	42.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	44.4	7.2
– Net Position:	1,888	-4,003	2,115
– Gross Longs:	64,740	86,761	16,759
– Gross Shorts:	62,852	90,764	14,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.3	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-19.7	-19.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	28.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	4.8
– Net Position:	19,472	-25,052	5,580
– Gross Longs:	34,059	19,682	8,936
– Gross Shorts:	14,587	44,734	3,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	41.7	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	15.4	15.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	67.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	8.6	14.3
– Net Position:	-6,635	7,214	-579
– Gross Longs:	2,525	8,268	1,182
– Gross Shorts:	9,160	1,054	1,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	96.4	6.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.3	-15.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	78.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	71.8	0.4
– Net Position:	-1,855	1,710	145
– Gross Longs:	4,085	21,522	264
– Gross Shorts:	5,940	19,812	119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	32.0	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.4	22.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

24 Jun

Speculator Extremes: British Pound, Peso & Live Cattle lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 46,608 net contracts this week with a change of 39,873 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.1 this week. The speculator position registered 99,718 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 20,883 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 47.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 204,698 net contracts this week with a change of 78,952 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 2.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,510 net contracts this week with a change of -48 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 105,936 net contracts this week with a change of -6,313 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -154,369 net contracts this week with a change of -61,298 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,027,276 net contracts this week with a change of 19,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -107,656 net contracts this week with a change of -3,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.7 this week. The speculator position was 166,477 net contracts this week with a change of 11,403 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -6,635 net contracts this week with a change of 501 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

24 Jun

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (73,681 contracts) with Soybeans (25,583 contracts), Wheat (20,463 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,962 contracts), Sugar (9,741 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,704 contracts), Coffee (5,163 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,597 contracts) with Cotton (-4,552 contracts) and Live Cattle (-6,313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the renewed bullish appetite of the Corn’s speculator’s positioning. The speculator positioning sharply jumped this week by over +73,681 contracts following a gain of +59,863 contracts last week. The Corn speculative bets have risen in four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks.

The grains markets have been starting to see higher prices coming back over the past month due to a drought in the US Midwest that has been stated as the worst since 2012. Speculators have been reacting to the changes in the weather and have now pushed their overall net standing for Corn back into a bullish position last week after spending the previous six weeks in bearish territory.

Corn’s futures price had been on a rise for three out of the previous four weeks and touched a nine-week high this week above 672.0 but ended up closing the week lower at the 630.6 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,846,816	40	166,477	3	-189,918	97	23,441	26
Gold	438,037	7	162,975	49	-186,537	52	23,562	39
Silver	152,633	40	20,058	47	-36,210	50	16,152	56
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	12,304	87	-6,635	5	7,214	96	-579	7
Platinum	69,436	70	19,472	61	-25,052	42	5,580	43
Natural Gas	1,303,558	69	-109,315	28	79,735	71	29,580	50
Brent	144,348	17	-47,056	13	45,090	91	1,966	36
Heating Oil	310,297	40	16,100	57	-28,496	61	12,396	41
Soybeans	662,469	19	88,532	24	-67,634	73	-20,898	47
Corn	1,290,348	13	118,773	39	-58,030	67	-60,743	28
Coffee	185,800	7	33,494	62	-33,426	43	-68	12
Sugar	967,113	63	261,001	83	-310,762	15	49,761	67
Wheat	353,865	39	-66,364	20	63,862	80	2,502	82

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Cocoa

On the downside, Lean Hogs (14 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.7 percent)
Sugar (83.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.7 percent)
Coffee (61.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.5 percent)
Soybeans (23.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (63.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.6 percent)
Live Cattle (93.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.0 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.2 percent)
Cocoa (88.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (19.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.1 percent)

Corn & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (25 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (13 percent), Soybeans (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybeans (9.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (8.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.5 percent)
Cotton (4.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (5.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (13.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 73,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	48.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	52.8	14.1
– Net Position:	118,773	-58,030	-60,743
– Gross Longs:	342,125	623,477	121,205
– Gross Shorts:	223,352	681,507	181,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	66.6	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-24.1	-22.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 261,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	40.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	73.0	4.5
– Net Position:	261,001	-310,762	49,761
– Gross Longs:	342,320	395,116	93,065
– Gross Shorts:	81,319	705,878	43,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	14.8	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	6.3	-6.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	41.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	59.3	3.8
– Net Position:	33,494	-33,426	-68
– Gross Longs:	51,676	76,767	7,058
– Gross Shorts:	18,182	110,193	7,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	42.6	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	1.1	-12.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	53.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.5	10.0
– Net Position:	88,532	-67,634	-20,898
– Gross Longs:	161,793	353,062	45,676
– Gross Shorts:	73,261	420,696	66,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	73.4	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-10.1	10.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	59.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	65.1	5.3
– Net Position:	28,127	-30,138	2,011
– Gross Longs:	76,705	301,792	29,161
– Gross Shorts:	48,578	331,930	27,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	67.0	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-20.3	10.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	38.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	62.7	6.3
– Net Position:	107,750	-122,189	14,439
– Gross Longs:	130,518	195,986	46,491
– Gross Shorts:	22,768	318,175	32,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	38.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.4	5.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 105,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	27.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	55.3	12.1
– Net Position:	105,936	-94,062	-11,874
– Gross Longs:	155,744	92,892	29,165
– Gross Shorts:	49,808	186,954	41,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	7.7	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-4.9	-22.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	40.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	29.5	10.2
– Net Position:	-18,727	20,759	-2,032
– Gross Longs:	56,562	77,522	17,534
– Gross Shorts:	75,289	56,763	19,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	88.9	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-2.7	-19.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	51.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	56.2	6.5
– Net Position:	6,658	-8,868	2,210
– Gross Longs:	52,445	86,869	13,339
– Gross Shorts:	45,787	95,737	11,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	84.3	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.1	12.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	27.9	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	49.0	3.0
– Net Position:	67,342	-71,968	4,626
– Gross Longs:	152,239	95,151	14,724
– Gross Shorts:	84,897	167,119	10,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.8	10.8	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.4	-1.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -66,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	38.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	20.5	9.3
– Net Position:	-66,364	63,862	2,502
– Gross Longs:	98,146	136,416	35,384
– Gross Shorts:	164,510	72,554	32,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	80.0	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.4	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

24 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (84,512 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (78,952 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (76,570 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (19,169 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1,640 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-58,144 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,411 contracts), the Eurodollar (-8,627 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,554 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-13-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	511,711	0	-11,672	74	23,432	22	-11,760	97
FedFunds	1,693,141	63	-101,642	32	115,607	69	-13,965	64
2-Year	3,503,880	100	-1,027,276	2	939,587	98	87,689	97
Long T-Bond	1,233,359	63	-102,301	51	66,493	34	35,808	74
10-Year	4,641,767	86	-749,997	10	681,043	92	68,954	89
5-Year	4,948,670	92	-958,826	7	931,171	92	27,655	89

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (51.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (20.0 percent)
Eurodollar (73.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (74.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (94.2 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (48 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (1 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) and the Fed Funds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-21.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-24.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-36.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.8 percent)
Eurodollar (1.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (47.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	67.2	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	62.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-11,672	23,432	-11,760
– Gross Longs:	118,404	343,978	45,860
– Gross Shorts:	130,076	320,546	57,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	22.3	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.0	0.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 78,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,746 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	60.1	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	62.0	1.3
– Net Position:	204,698	-189,803	-14,895
– Gross Longs:	1,811,313	6,267,481	122,143
– Gross Shorts:	1,606,615	6,457,284	137,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.9	-47.7	-5.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -101,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 84,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	71.1	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	64.3	3.5
– Net Position:	-101,642	115,607	-13,965
– Gross Longs:	147,292	1,204,550	45,368
– Gross Shorts:	248,934	1,088,943	59,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	69.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	1.6	29.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,046,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	80.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	54.1	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,027,276	939,587	87,689
– Gross Longs:	406,848	2,836,230	244,127
– Gross Shorts:	1,434,124	1,896,643	156,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.0	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.5	25.7	9.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -958,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 76,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,035,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	64.6	6.8
– Net Position:	-958,826	931,171	27,655
– Gross Longs:	394,457	4,129,490	363,566
– Gross Shorts:	1,353,283	3,198,319	335,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	91.8	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -749,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -58,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	79.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	65.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-749,997	681,043	68,954
– Gross Longs:	425,965	3,708,456	415,816
– Gross Shorts:	1,175,962	3,027,413	346,862
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.8	88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	4.2	-4.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -134,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	76.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	65.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-134,686	200,704	-66,018
– Gross Longs:	179,226	1,306,770	191,631
– Gross Shorts:	313,912	1,106,066	257,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	77.1	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-17.9	3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	77.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	71.9	11.6
– Net Position:	-102,301	66,493	35,808
– Gross Longs:	89,659	952,842	178,917
– Gross Shorts:	191,960	886,349	143,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	34.3	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	22.9	-25.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -403,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -396,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	82.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	59.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-403,404	342,024	61,380
– Gross Longs:	82,695	1,212,061	172,397
– Gross Shorts:	486,099	870,037	111,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	71.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	0.6	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

24 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (92,082 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,769 contracts), VIX (6,365 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (313 contracts) and Russell-Mini (3,187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were DowJones-Mini (-279 contracts) and Nikkei 225 (-421 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,223,815	23	-239,331	29	248,779	74	-9,448	41
Nikkei 225	16,787	18	-7,029	23	5,392	69	1,637	49
Nasdaq-Mini	247,591	35	15,993	84	-8,872	21	-7,121	40
DowJones-Mini	87,911	43	-15,859	29	16,453	67	-594	41
VIX	455,331	100	-61,056	75	60,933	20	123	96
Nikkei 225 Yen	55,296	45	12,407	72	13,251	47	-25,658	24

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (84 percent) and the VIX (75 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (23 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (74.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (15.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (29.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (84.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (83.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (26.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (23.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (26.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.2 percent)

S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (20 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (12 percent), the Nikkei 225 Yen (9 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-28.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-23.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-15.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	51.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	38.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-61,056	60,933	123
– Gross Longs:	101,721	235,290	31,096
– Gross Shorts:	162,777	174,357	30,973
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	19.6	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-7.2	16.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	77.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	66.0	11.4
– Net Position:	-239,331	248,779	-9,448
– Gross Longs:	210,230	1,716,868	243,154
– Gross Shorts:	449,561	1,468,089	252,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	74.2	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-20.6	4.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	62.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	43.6	15.1
– Net Position:	-15,859	16,453	-594
– Gross Longs:	19,335	54,798	12,713
– Gross Shorts:	35,194	38,345	13,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	67.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-17.1	20.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	53.3	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	56.9	18.8
– Net Position:	15,993	-8,872	-7,121
– Gross Longs:	71,956	132,040	39,361
– Gross Shorts:	55,963	140,912	46,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	21.0	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	1.3	6.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -72,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	84.6	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	71.2	4.2
– Net Position:	-72,709	70,994	1,715
– Gross Longs:	51,027	449,033	24,098
– Gross Shorts:	123,736	378,039	22,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	70.3	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	2.2	28.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	61.1	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	29.0	16.0
– Net Position:	-7,029	5,392	1,637
– Gross Longs:	2,214	10,254	4,319
– Gross Shorts:	9,243	4,862	2,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	68.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	23.4	6.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	90.7	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	88.5	1.2
– Net Position:	-15,922	9,145	6,777
– Gross Longs:	23,336	372,953	11,738
– Gross Shorts:	39,258	363,808	4,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	70.1	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	8.4	-17.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Jun

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (3,665 contracts) with Bitcoin (582 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,342 contracts), Japanese Yen (-8,624 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-8,415 contracts), EuroFX (-7,304 contracts), Brazilian Real (-5,094 contracts), Swiss Franc (-879 contracts), British Pound (-751 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-573 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-549 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the declining sentiment of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency.

Large speculative Euro positions dropped by over -7,000 contracts this week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased by a total of -28,668 contracts over these past three weeks to bring the bullish position to a total of +158,421 contracts, a nine week low. Previously, speculator bets had risen for six straight weeks from April 11th to May 16th and pushed the overall bullish speculative level to the highest standing in the past 137-weeks, dating back to late-September of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) hit over a 12-month high in May above the 1.1000 level and speculators were sharply positioning themselves for it to go higher. This was helped out this year by the interest rate hiking schedule of European Central Bank (ECB) which was raising their rates while the US Federal Reserve was being seen as nearing the end of its own rate hiking campaign.

However, this one-way dynamic has become more cloudy with some recent data-points.

The Eurozone has fallen into a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth), inflation has started to trend downwards (although still above 6 percent) and there is an expectation there will be possibly only 2 more ECB rate hikes before a pause. Meanwhile, rates traders are expecting (at this moment) the Fed to raise the US interest rate by 25 basis points once again at the July 26th meeting.

The Euro’s market strength recently hit a roadblock at the May high and the psychological level of 1.1000. The Euro has now tumbled in four out of the past five weeks and dropped all the way down to the 1.0635 exchange by the end of May. This week, the Euro rebounded modestly and the weekly closing price was near 1.0750. If speculators continue to further shed Euro positions, it is possible we could see a short-squeeze bring the currency lower still and challenge the 1.0500 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,930	32	12,219	45	-15,163	52	2,944	49
EUR	781,967	84	158,421	79	-203,916	22	45,495	52
GBP	242,117	63	12,484	80	-14,124	24	1,640	61
JPY	245,332	76	-104,817	4	113,736	91	-8,919	35
CHF	44,087	50	-1,314	51	7,048	57	-5,734	38
CAD	168,025	42	-38,329	19	38,456	82	-127	23
AUD	209,680	98	-56,468	32	67,496	69	-11,028	26
NZD	41,665	39	-703	52	2,856	53	-2,153	24
MXN	235,994	50	81,670	100	-87,777	0	6,107	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	46,686	35	26,181	69	-25,721	33	-460	40
Bitcoin	13,026	56	769	90	-1,196	0	427	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent), Bitcoin (90 percent) and the British Pound (80 percent) led the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (32 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.2 percent)
EuroFX (79.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (82.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (80.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.6 percent)
Bitcoin (90.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and the Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (12 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (7 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the EuroFX (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.8 percent)
EuroFX (-4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (11.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (18.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.1	3.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	48.5	8.1
– Net Position:	12,219	-15,163	2,944
– Gross Longs:	24,791	1,280	5,698
– Gross Shorts:	12,572	16,443	2,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	51.7	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-3.9	10.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	79.7	6.4
– Net Position:	158,421	-203,916	45,495
– Gross Longs:	236,060	419,532	95,766
– Gross Shorts:	77,639	623,448	50,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	21.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	6.9	-15.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	53.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	58.9	11.4
– Net Position:	12,484	-14,124	1,640
– Gross Longs:	65,063	128,441	29,200
– Gross Shorts:	52,579	142,565	27,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	24.5	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-2.4	-6.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.8	16.2
– Net Position:	-104,817	113,736	-8,919
– Gross Longs:	34,151	174,461	30,731
– Gross Shorts:	138,968	60,725	39,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	91.1	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.1	-10.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	47.0	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	31.0	38.7
– Net Position:	-1,314	7,048	-5,734
– Gross Longs:	11,579	20,726	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,893	13,678	17,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	7.2	-22.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	63.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	40.2	18.7
– Net Position:	-38,329	38,456	-127
– Gross Longs:	21,709	106,003	31,338
– Gross Shorts:	60,038	67,547	31,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	82.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.1	4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	24.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-56,468	67,496	-11,028
– Gross Longs:	54,501	119,775	19,365
– Gross Shorts:	110,969	52,279	30,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	69.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	10.3	7.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	45.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	38.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-703	2,856	-2,153
– Gross Longs:	16,109	18,954	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	16,812	16,098	5,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	53.2	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-2.5	-17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,005 net contracts.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	41.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	78.8	1.3
– Net Position:	81,670	-87,777	6,107
– Gross Longs:	123,447	98,261	9,230
– Gross Shorts:	41,777	186,038	3,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-19.1	18.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	21.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.4	11.2
– Net Position:	26,181	-25,721	-460
– Gross Longs:	31,930	9,947	4,791
– Gross Shorts:	5,749	35,668	5,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	33.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.5	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.7	10.6	5.7
– Net Position:	769	-1,196	427
– Gross Longs:	10,106	187	1,172
– Gross Shorts:	9,337	1,383	745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	11.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-37.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, SOFR, Japanese Yen lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 6th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 2.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,487 net contracts this week with a change of 181 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.9 this week. The speculator position registered 81,670 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 3,665 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 11.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 72,234 net contracts this week with a change of 6,661 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 61.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 40,305 net contracts this week with a change of -2,917 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 96.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.0 this week.

The speculator position was 105,621 net contracts this week with a change of 4,243 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,027,059 net contracts this week with a change of -43,222 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.1 this week. The speculator position was -959,901 net contracts this week with a change of 9,962 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,503 net contracts this week with a change of 2,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -90,684 net contracts this week with a change of 3,312 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.2 this week. The speculator position was -104,817 net contracts this week with a change of -8,624 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

COT Updates Opinions

11 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (96,720 contracts) with the Eurodollar (34,765 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (9,962 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-66,703 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-31,783 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-23,013 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7,099 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (-2,917 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	527,383	0	-3,045	74	13,104	22	-10,059	97
FedFunds	1,482,369	45	-246,858	9	255,064	91	-8,206	75
2-Year	3,351,277	100	-959,901	1	864,871	98	95,030	100
Long T-Bond	1,249,240	70	-82,926	58	41,862	26	41,064	78
10-Year	4,578,932	82	-753,701	9	693,419	93	60,282	87
5-Year	4,850,014	87	-1,027,059	0	1,016,651	100	10,408	84

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (9 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
Eurodollar (74.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (97.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (61 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-39 percent), the Fed Funds (-20 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-19.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-39.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-20.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Eurodollar (1.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (61.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	63.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-3,045	13,104	-10,059
– Gross Longs:	141,397	335,311	50,675
– Gross Shorts:	144,442	322,207	60,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	22.0	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	40,305	-24,496	-15,809
– Gross Longs:	1,581,630	6,023,024	41,854
– Gross Shorts:	1,541,325	6,047,520	57,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	3.4	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.3	-60.5	-5.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -246,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -66,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	78.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-246,858	255,064	-8,206
– Gross Longs:	52,857	1,167,235	34,401
– Gross Shorts:	299,715	912,171	42,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.1	8.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -959,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -969,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	80.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	55.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-959,901	864,871	95,030
– Gross Longs:	370,970	2,712,847	240,315
– Gross Shorts:	1,330,871	1,847,976	145,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	97.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.1	40.6	16.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-1,027,059	1,016,651	10,408
– Gross Longs:	326,795	4,085,049	359,182
– Gross Shorts:	1,353,854	3,068,398	348,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	16.4	-5.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -753,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 96,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -850,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	80.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-753,701	693,419	60,282
– Gross Longs:	410,777	3,675,457	397,950
– Gross Shorts:	1,164,478	2,982,038	337,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	93.1	86.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -142,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	76.8	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	63.7	15.5
– Net Position:	-142,577	218,066	-75,489
– Gross Longs:	174,272	1,275,948	181,822
– Gross Shorts:	316,849	1,057,882	257,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	80.9	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.0	1.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	75.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	72.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-82,926	41,862	41,064
– Gross Longs:	102,025	943,943	175,105
– Gross Shorts:	184,951	902,081	134,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	25.5	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	5.4	-21.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -406,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	82.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	58.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-406,999	356,439	50,560
– Gross Longs:	85,791	1,205,231	166,525
– Gross Shorts:	492,790	848,792	115,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.2	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.7	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (9,746 contracts) with Gold (6,325 contracts), Steel (2,593 contracts), Platinum (1,207 contracts) and Silver (351 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Palladium with a total change of -552 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) and Copper (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (48.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.4 percent)
Copper (8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (72.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)
Steel (65.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (-12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-13 percent) and Platinum (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.1 percent)
Silver (-13.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.8 percent)
Copper (-7.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.8 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 175,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	26.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	72.1	5.7
– Net Position:	175,641	-198,187	22,546
– Gross Longs:	237,467	116,363	47,595
– Gross Shorts:	61,826	314,550	25,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	47.4	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	5.3	-10.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	31.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	55.7	9.6
– Net Position:	21,475	-34,065	12,590
– Gross Longs:	53,149	42,785	25,871
– Gross Shorts:	31,674	76,850	13,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	52.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	9.0	9.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	46.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	35.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-25,956	24,610	1,346
– Gross Longs:	56,660	105,982	16,315
– Gross Shorts:	82,616	81,372	14,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	92.0	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	13.5	-46.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	31.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	74.2	4.5
– Net Position:	24,613	-28,747	4,134
– Gross Longs:	35,201	21,339	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	10,588	50,086	3,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	34.0	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-7.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	69.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.7	6.9	16.4
– Net Position:	-6,602	7,192	-590
– Gross Longs:	2,023	7,992	1,299
– Gross Shorts:	8,625	800	1,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	10.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	97.5	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	7.4	-9.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.6	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-2,706	2,593	113
– Gross Longs:	2,251	20,912	353
– Gross Shorts:	4,957	18,319	240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	34.6	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.5	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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