COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 50

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn, Soybeans & Coffee lead Speculator Bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil with a small gain of just 316 contracts for the week.

All the other markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,693 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-18,130 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,204 contracts), Wheat (-9,081 contracts), Sugar (-7,790 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,324 contracts)Cocoa (-2,377 contracts), Live Cattle (-631 contracts) and Cotton (-426 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,702,766	27	242,108	26	-270,101	76	27,993	35
Gold	433,611	5	121,136	30	-141,930	69	20,794	32
Silver	138,215	30	7,861	29	-23,264	66	15,403	52
Copper	224,215	62	-25,698	9	20,665	89	5,033	50
Palladium	20,511	100	-9,423	6	9,722	96	-299	24
Platinum	84,557	100	1	16	-5,866	81	5,865	47
Natural Gas	1,168,181	43	-95,183	34	66,755	66	28,428	48
Brent	129,184	7	-43,200	27	41,206	76	1,994	36
Heating Oil	332,712	49	31,677	86	-58,181	14	26,504	90
Soybeans	638,785	14	65,333	15	-43,649	82	-21,684	49
Corn	1,287,019	13	-26,966	6	73,174	93	-46,208	51
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	929,306	55	191,433	59	-228,493	40	37,060	51
Wheat	374,839	51	-31,875	44	33,913	56	-2,038	65

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (97 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (59 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Soybean Oil (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (6 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (21 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (5.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.4 percent)
Sugar (58.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.0 percent)
Live Cattle (76.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.3 percent)
Cotton (39.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (39.7 percent)
Cocoa (97.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (44.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.6 percent)

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (28 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (5 percent), Cocoa (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Corn (-12 percent) and Soybeans (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-14.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.4 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-10.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (5.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.2 percent)
Cotton (27.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (9.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	49.6	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	43.9	13.7
– Net Position:	-26,966	73,174	-46,208
– Gross Longs:	277,537	637,897	129,791
– Gross Shorts:	304,503	564,723	175,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	93.1	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.7	1.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 191,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	46.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	70.8	5.2
– Net Position:	191,433	-228,493	37,060
– Gross Longs:	274,489	429,317	85,080
– Gross Shorts:	83,056	657,810	48,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	39.8	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	0.4	8.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	54.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	61.4	10.1
– Net Position:	65,333	-43,649	-21,684
– Gross Longs:	138,099	348,481	43,056
– Gross Shorts:	72,766	392,130	64,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	81.7	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	52.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.8	4.9
– Net Position:	50,152	-60,786	10,634
– Gross Longs:	97,149	251,109	34,124
– Gross Shorts:	46,997	311,895	23,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.6	12.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	40.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.0	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	89,760	-108,122	18,362
– Gross Longs:	114,387	197,156	45,518
– Gross Shorts:	24,627	305,278	27,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	49.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	0.5	23.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	28.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	54.4	13.0
– Net Position:	90,669	-78,404	-12,265
– Gross Longs:	136,254	89,068	27,615
– Gross Shorts:	45,585	167,472	39,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	26.9	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	16.6	6.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	39.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	32.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-10,674	14,260	-3,586
– Gross Longs:	66,874	84,655	18,971
– Gross Shorts:	77,548	70,395	22,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.1	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-0.5	-5.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	67.1	3.2
– Net Position:	40,718	-50,546	9,828
– Gross Longs:	76,629	90,263	16,647
– Gross Shorts:	35,911	140,809	6,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	56.1	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-30.9	55.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 77,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.6	28.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	57.8	2.5
– Net Position:	77,125	-80,698	3,573
– Gross Longs:	127,724	77,864	10,505
– Gross Shorts:	50,599	158,562	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	1.7	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	5.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	36.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	27.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-31,875	33,913	-2,038
– Gross Longs:	110,356	137,515	35,301
– Gross Shorts:	142,231	103,602	37,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	56.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-13.7	12.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (41,162 contracts) with the VIX (18,419 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (16,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-7,252 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-6,768 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-34 contracts) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (-587 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-15-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,220,084	22	-118,408	47	96,147	53	22,261	52
Nikkei 225	16,974	19	-700	65	-596	32	1,296	45
Nasdaq-Mini	267,495	42	5,169	80	-4,716	20	-453	53
DowJones-Mini	104,216	71	-3,221	65	2,879	40	342	46
VIX	395,240	70	-25,985	100	31,613	0	-5,628	67
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,699	39	5,860	52	14,729	51	-20,589	40

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (29.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)

Nikkei 225 & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (36 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (28 percent), the VIX (21 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (21.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (65.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	42.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	34.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-25,985	31,613	-5,628
– Gross Longs:	102,229	166,941	22,357
– Gross Shorts:	128,214	135,328	27,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-18.8	-12.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -118,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	69.3	10.9
– Net Position:	-118,408	96,147	22,261
– Gross Longs:	258,924	1,634,627	263,621
– Gross Shorts:	377,332	1,538,480	241,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.2	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-15.1	7.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	51.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	49.0	13.5
– Net Position:	-3,221	2,879	342
– Gross Longs:	32,257	53,909	14,419
– Gross Shorts:	35,478	51,030	14,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	39.7	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-23.0	7.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	58.4	15.4
– Net Position:	5,169	-4,716	-453
– Gross Longs:	69,459	151,549	40,682
– Gross Shorts:	64,290	156,265	41,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	19.6	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.5	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	83.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-71,279	67,827	3,452
– Gross Longs:	48,652	441,976	26,060
– Gross Shorts:	119,931	374,149	22,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	68.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.2	-0.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	61.8	25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	65.3	17.4
– Net Position:	-700	-596	1,296
– Gross Longs:	2,242	10,489	4,243
– Gross Shorts:	2,942	11,085	2,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	32.3	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.8	-32.0	-2.7

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.1	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	84.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-23,496	16,838	6,658
– Gross Longs:	29,476	356,117	11,619
– Gross Shorts:	52,972	339,279	4,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	79.4	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	8.6	23.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

12 Aug

US Dollar Index Speculator Bets drop for 6th straight week to new 2-year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (8,600 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (3,295 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-22,251 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-6,988 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-5,312 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,897 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,964 contracts), the British Pound (-2,542 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,954 contracts), Bitcoin (-610 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets drop for 6th straight week to new 2-year low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued decreasing nature of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell for a sixth straight week this week with the speculator position now declining by a total of -12,344 contracts over this last six-week span.

This bearishness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at just a total of +2,624 contracts) to a new 110-week low, dating back to June 29th of 2021 when the speculator’s net position was last in negative territory at a total of -448 contracts.

Despite the speculator’s pessimism in the US Dollar Index contracts, the futures price has been on the rise for a fourth consecutive week. The USD futures price advanced by approximately 1 percent this week with a Friday close right around the 102.70 level, it’s highest close level since June. The USD Index futures had fallen to a price of 99.22 on July 18th before rebounding and starting back on it’s current trend higher.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-08-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	28,930	6	2,624	29	-2,678	71	54	16
EUR	760,968	69	149,811	76	-195,450	24	45,639	52
GBP	206,954	41	47,020	88	-57,879	13	10,859	79
JPY	229,849	62	-83,180	21	89,121	79	-5,941	41
CHF	43,122	46	-5,452	42	4,092	51	1,360	62
CAD	140,960	20	-623	54	-4,617	53	5,240	34
AUD	182,842	67	-43,192	45	55,845	61	-12,653	22
NZD	40,986	37	-368	53	1,454	50	-1,086	37
MXN	227,745	47	83,651	90	-86,640	10	2,989	30
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	45,709	33	28,039	71	-27,269	31	-770	38
Bitcoin	16,743	83	-1,149	57	456	0	693	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The EuroFX (76 percent), Brazilian Real (71 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (21 percent) and the US Dollar Index (29 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (42 percent) and the Australian Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (30.1 percent)
EuroFX (76.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (84.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (90.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (23.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (32.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (60.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (90.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (93.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.2 percent)
Bitcoin (56.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.5 percent)

Japanese Yen & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (18 percent) and the Bitcoin (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-8 percent), Brazilian Real (-5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-20.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (2.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.5 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: New Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: New Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.6	22.1	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	31.4	11.2
– Net Position:	2,624	-2,678	54
– Gross Longs:	17,247	6,395	3,283
– Gross Shorts:	14,623	9,073	3,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	71.5	16.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	23.3	-25.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 149,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -22,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	56.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	81.6	6.1
– Net Position:	149,811	-195,450	45,639
– Gross Longs:	228,048	425,875	92,240
– Gross Shorts:	78,237	621,325	46,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.4	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-0.7	-4.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	36.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	64.7	11.4
– Net Position:	47,020	-57,879	10,859
– Gross Longs:	83,239	75,990	34,505
– Gross Shorts:	36,219	133,869	23,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	13.3	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	5.0	-7.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -83,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	73.8	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	35.0	17.1
– Net Position:	-83,180	89,121	-5,941
– Gross Longs:	23,135	169,528	33,411
– Gross Shorts:	106,315	80,407	39,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	79.1	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-16.2	7.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	44.0	35.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	34.6	32.2
– Net Position:	-5,452	4,092	1,360
– Gross Longs:	8,509	18,991	15,265
– Gross Shorts:	13,961	14,899	13,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	51.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	-4.8	11.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,365 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	52.0	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	55.3	20.2
– Net Position:	-623	-4,617	5,240
– Gross Longs:	29,481	73,301	33,774
– Gross Shorts:	30,104	77,918	28,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	53.0	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	8.2	-31.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	53.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	22.5	17.3
– Net Position:	-43,192	55,845	-12,653
– Gross Longs:	61,091	96,999	18,900
– Gross Shorts:	104,283	41,154	31,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	60.5	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	12.7	-32.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	46.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	42.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-368	1,454	-1,086
– Gross Longs:	18,758	18,874	3,306
– Gross Shorts:	19,126	17,420	4,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	49.9	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.6	-8.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -4,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	47.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	85.9	1.9
– Net Position:	83,651	-86,640	2,989
– Gross Longs:	110,008	109,028	7,344
– Gross Shorts:	26,357	195,668	4,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	9.7	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.9	-3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.8	19.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	78.7	9.7
– Net Position:	28,039	-27,269	-770
– Gross Longs:	32,815	8,706	3,663
– Gross Shorts:	4,776	35,975	4,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	31.1	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	0.8	23.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline by -610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	6.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.4	3.7	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,149	456	693
– Gross Longs:	12,985	1,082	1,250
– Gross Shorts:	14,134	626	557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	73.9	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-20.6	-9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa & Palladium lead COT Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 8th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 79,502 net contracts this week with a change of 1,288 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 90.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -7.8 this week. The speculator position registered 83,651 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -4,897 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 88.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -3.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 47,020 net contracts this week with a change of -2,542 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 87.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -44,404 net contracts this week with a change of -2,238 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 85.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 65.0 this week.

The speculator position was 4,031 net contracts this week with a change of 2,451 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -10,192 net contracts this week with a change of -895 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,230,307 net contracts this week with a change of 26,739 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,109,126 net contracts this week with a change of -13,463 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.6 this week. The speculator position was -445,088 net contracts this week with a change of 11,341 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 13.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.8 this week. The speculator position was -149,951 net contracts this week with a change of 35,286 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six markets we follow had lower speculator contracts.

The markets leading the declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,939 contracts) with Copper (-20,801 contracts), Silver (-17,507 contracts), Platinum (-9,298 contracts), Steel (-1,065 contracts) with Palladium (-895 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-08-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	427,759	3	142,985	40	-167,554	59	24,569	42
Silver	137,631	29	13,324	37	-30,349	57	17,025	61
Copper	228,537	65	-10,057	22	4,908	76	5,149	51
Palladium	20,470	100	-10,192	0	10,299	100	-107	35
Platinum	79,989	100	2,992	22	-8,591	76	5,599	43

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (64 percent) and Gold (40 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (40.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.7 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.2 percent)
Copper (22.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.1 percent)
Platinum (22.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.4 percent)
Steel (64.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.2 percent)

Gold & Steel are the least negative in the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-4 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for metals but were in negative trends.

Platinum (-21 percent) and Palladium (-21 percent) lead and show the most negative trends currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.9 percent)
Silver (-8.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.4 percent)
Copper (-11.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.7 percent)
Platinum (-21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-20.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.1 percent)
Steel (-5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	26.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	65.8	4.8
– Net Position:	142,985	-167,554	24,569
– Gross Longs:	228,846	113,890	44,996
– Gross Shorts:	85,861	281,444	20,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	59.3	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	3.0	2.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	30.3	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	52.3	7.5
– Net Position:	13,324	-30,349	17,025
– Gross Longs:	53,781	41,636	27,349
– Gross Shorts:	40,457	71,985	10,324
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	57.1	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	-1.2	37.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	42.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	40.2	5.6
– Net Position:	-10,057	4,908	5,149
– Gross Longs:	71,247	96,728	17,983
– Gross Shorts:	81,304	91,820	12,834
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	75.7	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	9.4	10.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	27.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	38.1	5.0
– Net Position:	2,992	-8,591	5,599
– Gross Longs:	42,007	21,899	9,574
– Gross Shorts:	39,015	30,490	3,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	75.7	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.8	-11.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	60.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.3	9.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-10,192	10,299	-107
– Gross Longs:	4,198	12,313	1,659
– Gross Shorts:	14,390	2,014	1,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	16.7	24.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	86.2	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	71.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-3,121	3,074	47
– Gross Longs:	1,780	17,968	227
– Gross Shorts:	4,901	14,894	180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	36.0	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.4	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

12 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (154,318 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (35,286 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (26,739 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,341 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-62,065 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-46,540 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-13,463 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-12,879 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-08-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,208,505	98	-54,113	77	69,346	23	-15,233	80
FedFunds	1,496,411	46	-193,341	23	200,419	77	-7,078	77
2-Year	3,746,749	100	-1,109,126	3	1,009,336	96	99,790	96
Long T-Bond	1,333,067	89	-199,555	20	155,116	66	44,439	81
10-Year	4,872,433	98	-691,726	15	673,553	91	18,173	77
5-Year	5,711,857	100	-1,230,307	2	1,185,876	98	44,431	93

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (3 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (14 percent), the 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and all are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (22.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (76.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (66.1 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-27 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-23 percent) and the Fed Funds (-19 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-27.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-23.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-28.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 154,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	60.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	59.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-54,113	69,346	-15,233
– Gross Longs:	1,782,372	6,153,817	21,947
– Gross Shorts:	1,836,485	6,084,471	37,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	23.3	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	23.3	2.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -193,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	75.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	62.0	2.8
– Net Position:	-193,341	200,419	-7,078
– Gross Longs:	53,183	1,127,668	34,533
– Gross Shorts:	246,524	927,249	41,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	77.0	77.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	17.2	13.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,109,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,095,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	81.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	54.7	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,109,126	1,009,336	99,790
– Gross Longs:	370,316	3,060,298	251,275
– Gross Shorts:	1,479,442	2,050,962	151,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	96.2	95.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.5	5.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,230,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,257,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	84.3	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	63.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-1,230,307	1,185,876	44,431
– Gross Longs:	442,034	4,816,393	383,036
– Gross Shorts:	1,672,341	3,630,517	338,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	98.1	93.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	17.0	5.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -691,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -46,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -645,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	64.4	8.2
– Net Position:	-691,726	673,553	18,173
– Gross Longs:	524,694	3,810,443	415,794
– Gross Shorts:	1,216,420	3,136,890	397,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	91.0	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-5.5	-12.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -149,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 35,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	77.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	63.7	15.0
– Net Position:	-149,951	252,369	-102,418
– Gross Longs:	203,958	1,402,515	167,668
– Gross Shorts:	353,909	1,150,146	270,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	88.3	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	16.9	-35.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -199,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	76.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	65.2	11.3
– Net Position:	-199,555	155,116	44,439
– Gross Longs:	77,132	1,024,818	195,687
– Gross Shorts:	276,687	869,702	151,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	65.9	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	29.3	1.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -445,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	82.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	57.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-445,088	402,286	42,802
– Gross Longs:	88,265	1,291,140	172,047
– Gross Shorts:	533,353	888,854	129,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	95.0	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	21.9	-22.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (40,478 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (2,451 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,279 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (526 contracts), Nikkei 225 (180 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the VIX with a drop of -2,238 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-08-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,221,709	23	-159,570	41	139,895	59	19,675	51
Nikkei 225	16,187	17	-666	65	-453	33	1,119	42
Nasdaq-Mini	267,797	43	-10,879	71	13,627	32	-2,748	48
DowJones-Mini	106,566	75	4,031	85	-2,467	29	-1,564	36
VIX	376,604	61	-44,404	87	48,882	11	-4,478	73
Nikkei 225 Yen	48,866	33	5,831	52	15,504	53	-21,335	38

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (88.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (40.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.7 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (36 percent), the VIX (15 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (14.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (7.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-15.7 percent)
Russell 2000-Mini (-0.5 percent) vs Russell 2000-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (36.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	32.3	7.6
– Net Position:	-44,404	48,882	-4,478
– Gross Longs:	95,022	170,481	24,125
– Gross Shorts:	139,426	121,599	28,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	10.8	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-12.8	-13.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -159,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 40,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -200,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	74.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-159,570	139,895	19,675
– Gross Longs:	240,913	1,654,088	261,201
– Gross Shorts:	400,483	1,514,193	241,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	59.2	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-9.0	5.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	51.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	53.6	14.9
– Net Position:	4,031	-2,467	-1,564
– Gross Longs:	33,027	54,693	14,336
– Gross Shorts:	28,996	57,160	15,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	28.8	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	65.0	-45.9	-1.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	56.7	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	51.7	15.8
– Net Position:	-10,879	13,627	-2,748
– Gross Longs:	70,170	151,969	39,533
– Gross Shorts:	81,049	138,342	42,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	31.5	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.2	5.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -64,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	83.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	71.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-64,511	63,253	1,258
– Gross Longs:	48,700	430,726	24,588
– Gross Shorts:	113,211	367,473	23,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	66.0	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	2.0	-8.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	65.7	25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	68.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-666	-453	1,119
– Gross Longs:	1,483	10,631	4,073
– Gross Shorts:	2,149	11,084	2,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	33.1	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.4	-30.5	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	89.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	85.9	1.0
– Net Position:	-22,909	14,612	8,297
– Gross Longs:	26,299	357,202	12,404
– Gross Shorts:	49,208	342,590	4,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	76.7	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	0.1	33.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

12 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (3,283 contracts) with Cocoa (1,288 contracts) and Live Cattle (348 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-54,347 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,297 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,122 contracts), Sugar (-12,378 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,539 contracts), Cotton (-2,736 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-658 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-08-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,703,711	27	255,928	29	-278,338	74	22,410	24
Gold	427,759	3	142,985	40	-167,554	59	24,569	42
Silver	137,631	29	13,324	37	-30,349	57	17,025	61
Copper	228,537	65	-10,057	22	4,908	76	5,149	51
Palladium	20,470	100	-10,192	0	10,299	100	-107	35
Platinum	79,989	100	2,992	22	-8,591	76	5,599	43
Natural Gas	1,183,146	46	-107,843	29	81,717	72	26,126	42
Brent	121,594	0	-34,740	44	32,092	58	2,648	45
Heating Oil	324,934	46	30,881	84	-57,516	15	26,635	91
Soybeans	628,182	12	83,463	22	-63,652	75	-19,811	54
Corn	1,284,433	12	25,727	16	26,794	86	-52,521	40
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	912,260	51	199,223	61	-230,769	39	31,546	43
Wheat	343,982	34	-22,794	51	25,578	49	-2,784	63

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (16 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (16.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (61.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (65.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (62.4 percent)
Live Cattle (77.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.2 percent)
Cotton (39.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.2 percent)

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (32 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (9 percent) and Lean Hogs (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-14 percent), Live Cattle (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.2 percent)
Sugar (-7.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-7.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.9 percent)
Cotton (32.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (28.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (17.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	48.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	46.2	13.7
– Net Position:	25,727	26,794	-52,521
– Gross Longs:	290,414	619,891	123,007
– Gross Shorts:	264,687	593,097	175,528
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.7	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	14.0	1.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	45.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	70.8	4.9
– Net Position:	199,223	-230,769	31,546
– Gross Longs:	284,974	414,856	76,675
– Gross Shorts:	85,751	645,625	45,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	39.1	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	5.4	4.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	52.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	63.1	10.0
– Net Position:	83,463	-63,652	-19,811
– Gross Longs:	150,115	332,610	42,925
– Gross Shorts:	66,652	396,262	62,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	74.8	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	5.7	4.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	52.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	65.2	5.1
– Net Position:	49,836	-59,001	9,165
– Gross Longs:	97,041	253,124	33,351
– Gross Shorts:	47,205	312,125	24,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	52.0	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-11.8	21.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	36.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	63.1	5.7
– Net Position:	106,964	-128,313	21,349
– Gross Longs:	126,380	178,840	48,850
– Gross Shorts:	19,416	307,153	27,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	38.1	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-8.3	31.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.9	29.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	54.9	13.2
– Net Position:	91,300	-79,969	-11,331
– Gross Longs:	136,919	91,277	29,710
– Gross Shorts:	45,619	171,246	41,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	25.0	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	15.1	-3.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	38.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	34.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-5,350	8,478	-3,128
– Gross Longs:	70,436	83,300	20,389
– Gross Shorts:	75,786	74,822	23,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	78.0	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-9.6	-1.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	44.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	68.0	3.3
– Net Position:	41,144	-49,959	8,815
– Gross Longs:	77,078	95,591	15,971
– Gross Shorts:	35,934	145,550	7,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	56.5	69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-35.4	57.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	26.6	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	54.2	2.8
– Net Position:	79,502	-81,601	2,099
– Gross Longs:	138,107	78,506	10,371
– Gross Shorts:	58,605	160,107	8,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.7	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-6.4	-21.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	37.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	29.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-22,794	25,578	-2,784
– Gross Longs:	105,903	127,107	32,948
– Gross Shorts:	128,697	101,529	35,732
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	49.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-20.6	4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Jul

US Dollar Speculators reduce their bullish bets to 2-Year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,487 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (5,009 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,677 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,780 contracts) and Bitcoin (516 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,651 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-5,013 contracts), the British Pound (-4,734 contracts), EuroFX (-1,602 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,962 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-800 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets fall to 2-Year Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a fourth consecutive week this week and the speculators have now subtracted a total of -8,914 net contracts from the overall position in just the last four weeks.

This week’s reduction by -5,013 contracts marked the largest one-week shortfall since December 20th of 2022 (which recorded a decline by -9,021 contracts). This bearishness has dropped the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +6,054 contracts) to its lowest level of the past 108 weeks, dating back to June 29th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been weakening since hitting a cycle high on June 21st of 2022 with a total of +45,010 contracts. Since then, the steady and slow erosion of bullish bets has brought the net position to under the +10,000 contract level for just the second time in the past two years. This latest data is through Tuesday and before the US Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase by 25 basis points that took place on Wednesday. Speculators and market watchers are eyeing the end of the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign as inflation has been falling across most measures in the US economy.

The US Dollar Index futures price closed higher this week for a second straight week and ended the week right around the 101.40 level. The USD Index had ascended to a multi-decade high of 114.74 in September 2022 and has been on the downtrend since with a current decline (from top to latest price) of approximately 12 percent. The USD Index price fell to a 14-month low on July 18th at 99.22 before staging a comeback over the past two weeks and making it back over the 100 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,514	20	6,054	35	-6,339	66	285	20
EUR	772,408	75	177,230	87	-234,269	11	57,039	70
GBP	237,340	60	58,995	97	-76,984	3	17,989	93
JPY	223,760	57	-77,752	24	86,555	78	-8,803	36
CHF	44,180	50	-8,431	32	3,421	51	5,010	74
CAD	156,395	31	5,530	60	-22,096	41	16,566	60
AUD	146,423	28	-51,201	37	49,561	56	1,640	56
NZD	36,820	25	-949	51	32	47	917	61
MXN	233,549	49	87,841	93	-92,058	7	4,217	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	53,443	44	31,971	76	-31,957	25	-14	44
Bitcoin	16,017	77	-645	66	-178	0	823	32

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (97 percent) and the Mexican Peso (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the Bitcoin (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (24 percent) and the Swiss Franc (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.4 percent)
EuroFX (86.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (96.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (23.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (96.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.9 percent)
Bitcoin (65.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.7 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (39 percent) and the British Pound (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (16 percent), the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-13 percent), Swiss Franc (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.9 percent)
EuroFX (9.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (7.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	22.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	41.0	10.0
– Net Position:	6,054	-6,339	285
– Gross Longs:	21,258	7,796	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	15,204	14,135	3,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	65.7	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	16.4	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 177,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	52.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	82.5	5.2
– Net Position:	177,230	-234,269	57,039
– Gross Longs:	250,647	402,626	97,545
– Gross Shorts:	73,417	636,895	40,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	11.4	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.5	18.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	31.9	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	64.3	10.0
– Net Position:	58,995	-76,984	17,989
– Gross Longs:	105,498	75,737	41,762
– Gross Shorts:	46,503	152,721	23,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	2.6	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-32.7	12.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -77,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	72.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	33.3	17.4
– Net Position:	-77,752	86,555	-8,803
– Gross Longs:	30,358	161,166	30,040
– Gross Shorts:	108,110	74,611	38,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	11.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	38.0	43.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	30.3	31.8
– Net Position:	-8,431	3,421	5,010
– Gross Longs:	7,804	16,787	19,044
– Gross Shorts:	16,235	13,366	14,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	50.6	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	-6.0	23.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.0	25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.1	14.6
– Net Position:	5,530	-22,096	16,566
– Gross Longs:	42,759	73,539	39,413
– Gross Shorts:	37,229	95,635	22,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	41.1	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-35.0	20.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	54.8	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.7	21.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-51,201	49,561	1,640
– Gross Longs:	39,108	80,237	23,735
– Gross Shorts:	90,309	30,676	22,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	55.9	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-18.2	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	53.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-949	32	917
– Gross Longs:	12,933	19,664	4,080
– Gross Shorts:	13,882	19,632	3,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	46.6	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-11.4	58.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	45.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	84.8	1.9
– Net Position:	87,841	-92,058	4,217
– Gross Longs:	117,732	106,061	8,608
– Gross Shorts:	29,891	198,119	4,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.8	6.5	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	0.4	-61.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	20.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	80.5	9.5
– Net Position:	31,971	-31,957	-14
– Gross Longs:	36,345	11,073	5,084
– Gross Shorts:	4,374	43,030	5,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	25.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-9.2	13.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	2.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	3.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-645	-178	823
– Gross Longs:	11,941	422	1,503
– Gross Shorts:	12,586	600	680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	49.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	38.9	8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was just Copper with a weekly rise of 4,709 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,709 contracts), Silver (-6,937 contracts), Steel (-1,356 contracts), Platinum (-249 contracts) and Palladium (-27 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (53.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.2 percent)
Silver (70.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (80.8 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (51.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (68.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.1 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (19 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (18.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (31.9 percent)
Copper (12.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (-15.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.5 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.4 percent)
Steel (0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	26.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.0	4.8
– Net Position:	173,639	-198,210	24,571
– Gross Longs:	248,229	125,491	47,300
– Gross Shorts:	74,590	323,701	22,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.4	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	26.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.5	8.0
– Net Position:	36,925	-49,718	12,793
– Gross Longs:	72,786	39,197	24,478
– Gross Shorts:	35,861	88,915	11,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	33.7	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-13.6	-10.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	40.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.2	5.7
– Net Position:	1,159	-3,904	2,745
– Gross Longs:	73,743	95,140	16,173
– Gross Shorts:	72,584	99,044	13,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	68.4	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.7	15.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	25.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	57.6	4.3
– Net Position:	15,487	-20,441	4,954
– Gross Longs:	36,489	16,506	7,742
– Gross Shorts:	21,002	36,947	2,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	14.2	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	61.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.4	8.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-8,377	8,899	-522
– Gross Longs:	3,752	10,346	1,417
– Gross Shorts:	12,129	1,447	1,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.3	-0.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.2	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	72.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-1,726	1,641	85
– Gross Longs:	3,242	19,348	276
– Gross Shorts:	4,968	17,707	191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	31.8	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.9	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.