COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 49

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by DowJones & S&P500 Minis

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (24,916 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (17,766 contracts) the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,174 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (2,394 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,124 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (670 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (64 contracts),also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in the speculator bets this week was the VIX (-9,241 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,314,400	31	-47,261	58	-95	40	47,356	56
Nikkei 225	19,914	60	-1,690	55	1,036	42	654	39
Nasdaq-Mini	277,746	61	8,402	52	-13,580	27	5,178	85
DowJones-Mini	94,870	55	308	81	2,833	33	-3,141	29
VIX	406,711	75	-56,777	71	57,871	26	-1,094	91
Nikkei 225 Yen	65,677	65	17,459	88	2,061	17	-19,520	44

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (81 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (71 percent) and S&P500-Mini (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (71.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (80.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (49.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)

DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-23.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (-16.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-33.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	49.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	35.7	7.1
– Net Position:	-56,777	57,871	-1,094
– Gross Longs:	92,021	202,889	27,743
– Gross Shorts:	148,798	145,018	28,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	25.5	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	20.7	17.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	73.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.7	9.3
– Net Position:	-47,261	-95	47,356
– Gross Longs:	264,209	1,706,068	261,634
– Gross Shorts:	311,470	1,706,163	214,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	4.8	9.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	56.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	53.4	17.3
– Net Position:	308	2,833	-3,141
– Gross Longs:	26,253	53,465	13,228
– Gross Shorts:	25,945	50,632	16,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	32.9	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	78.4	-62.1	2.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	56.0	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	8,402	-13,580	5,178
– Gross Longs:	75,200	155,418	41,346
– Gross Shorts:	66,798	168,998	36,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	27.4	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-11.8	8.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	81.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	72.6	4.1
– Net Position:	-55,429	50,900	4,529
– Gross Longs:	69,069	455,710	27,535
– Gross Shorts:	124,498	404,810	23,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	57.7	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.7	15.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	68.2	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-1,690	1,036	654
– Gross Longs:	2,029	13,587	3,953
– Gross Shorts:	3,719	12,551	3,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	42.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	2.1	-10.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	91.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	79.9	1.7
– Net Position:	-49,858	44,941	4,917
– Gross Longs:	22,286	369,015	11,661
– Gross Shorts:	72,144	324,074	6,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	84.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	15.7	15.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real & 2-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is currently at a 99.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,244 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 13.5 this week. The speculator position registered 511,780 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -15,457 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 20.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -167 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 66 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 45.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 86,967 net contracts this week with a boost of 135,716 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nikkei 225 Yen

The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level sits at a 88.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 31.6 this week.

The speculator position was 17,459 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,476,016 net contracts this week with a drop of -187,185 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The speculator position was -267,855 net contracts this week with a downfall of -9,960 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,252 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,081 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was 20,298 net contracts this week with a decline by -30,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,429,427 net contracts this week with a drop by -30,927 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 Dec

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (18,203 contracts) with the EuroFX (13,511 contracts) also rising by more than 10,000 contracts followed by the Australian Dollar (6,751 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,554 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,198 contracts).

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-3,783 contracts), US Dollar Index (-1,610 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,001 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,755 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,295 contracts) and Bitcoin (-869 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s boost in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling and the Euro. Both of these currencies saw speculator positions rise by over +10,000 weekly contracts. Helping out both the Sterling and the Euro positioning has been a dent in the outlook for the US Dollar.

The US inflation numbers continue to moderate and market watchers are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold their interest rates steady. According to the Fed Watch tool, expectations are currently 98 percent for a rate hold at the December meeting and when looking out over the next year, investors are starting to expect rate decreases in 2024.

The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by over +18,000 contracts and has gained in three out of the past four weeks. The GBP speculative level has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eight weeks at a total of -7,895 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate has been following suit with a price close this week at the highest level since August. The GBPUSD has bounced off the 1.2100 major support in recent months and has accelerated higher (+5% in November) with a close over the 1.2700 to end the week.

The Euro speculator position, meanwhile, jumped by over +13,000 contracts this week as well and has now risen for seven consecutive weeks. The Euro position has gained by a total of +67,633 contracts over this past 7-week period to reach a 13-week high point at +143,165 contracts. The Euro (EURUSD) exchange rate to the US Dollar has also had a strong couple of months with the EURUSD currency pair bouncing off the 1.5500 major support to challenge the 1.1000 level. This week the EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1000 level and closed at 1.0879.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,359	33	19,087	57	-18,292	47	-795	0
EUR	727,138	48	143,165	81	-176,315	23	33,150	32
GBP	217,372	47	-7,895	50	10,064	51	-2,169	54
JPY	260,781	82	-109,237	12	103,692	86	5,545	65
CHF	60,479	96	-20,289	1	26,691	88	-6,402	38
CAD	200,864	61	-63,242	6	67,537	94	-4,295	13
AUD	197,053	55	-71,219	24	73,789	73	-2,570	46
NZD	51,460	60	-19,609	4	20,208	91	-599	43
MXN	247,503	54	65,485	79	-71,441	19	5,956	49
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	108,749	100	32,881	77	-29,230	29	-3,651	0
Bitcoin	23,027	100	-1,745	40	792	0	953	35

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) were leading the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (77 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (59.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (79.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (75.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.4 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (38 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-31 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (38.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-31.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	17.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	9.0
– Net Position:	19,087	-18,292	-795
– Gross Longs:	28,798	6,746	2,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,711	25,038	3,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	46.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.9	-28.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 143,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	53.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	77.7	6.8
– Net Position:	143,165	-176,315	33,150
– Gross Longs:	233,454	388,784	82,613
– Gross Shorts:	90,289	565,099	49,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	23.2	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-28.0	22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	54.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	49.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-7,895	10,064	-2,169
– Gross Longs:	61,296	118,253	26,067
– Gross Shorts:	69,191	108,189	28,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	51.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.5	12.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -109,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	69.1	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.6	29.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-109,237	103,692	5,545
– Gross Longs:	30,461	180,134	44,382
– Gross Shorts:	139,698	76,442	38,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	85.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-4.2	31.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	73.0	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	28.9	30.0
– Net Position:	-20,289	26,691	-6,402
– Gross Longs:	4,300	44,145	11,754
– Gross Shorts:	24,589	17,454	18,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	87.9	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	-6.6	24.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	71.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	37.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-63,242	67,537	-4,295
– Gross Longs:	18,991	143,464	30,505
– Gross Shorts:	82,233	75,927	34,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.0	93.7	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	-6.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -71,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	29.1	13.7
– Net Position:	-71,219	73,789	-2,570
– Gross Longs:	29,203	131,213	24,361
– Gross Shorts:	100,422	57,424	26,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	72.7	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-17.6	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	71.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	32.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-19,609	20,208	-599
– Gross Longs:	10,104	36,898	3,703
– Gross Shorts:	29,713	16,690	4,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.7	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	28.5	13.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	53.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	82.0	0.8
– Net Position:	65,485	-71,441	5,956
– Gross Longs:	105,838	131,543	7,840
– Gross Shorts:	40,353	202,984	1,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.5	20.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	45.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.5	7.0
– Net Position:	32,881	-29,230	-3,651
– Gross Longs:	52,260	49,664	3,934
– Gross Shorts:	19,379	78,894	7,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	29.4	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-30.4	-48.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.4	5.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	90.0	2.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	792	953
– Gross Longs:	18,979	1,344	1,688
– Gross Shorts:	20,724	552	735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	90.7	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	48.6	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators boosted their 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets saw lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (96,571 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (70,133 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (27,337 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines for the week were the Fed Funds (-54,208 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,196 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23,489 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,522 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,193 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,837,439	100	527,237	100	-525,306	0	-1,931	87
FedFunds	1,917,677	82	-203,490	25	220,167	77	-16,677	58
2-Year	4,080,415	95	-1,288,831	11	1,141,440	87	147,391	100
Long T-Bond	1,308,135	62	-102,176	48	51,573	30	50,603	85
10-Year	4,775,113	90	-685,354	16	632,924	82	52,430	85
5-Year	6,081,130	97	-1,398,500	4	1,250,881	94	147,619	99

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (51 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (48 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (48.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (51.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (54.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.4 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (28 percent) and the Fed Funds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-23.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (28.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (37.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (13.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (17.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (13.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 527,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 499,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	53.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	58.8	0.3
– Net Position:	527,237	-525,306	-1,931
– Gross Longs:	2,221,115	5,844,327	31,767
– Gross Shorts:	1,693,878	6,369,633	33,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-18.8	7.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -203,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	76.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	65.1	2.4
– Net Position:	-203,490	220,167	-16,677
– Gross Longs:	146,621	1,468,991	30,251
– Gross Shorts:	350,111	1,248,824	46,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	76.5	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-20.9	12.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,288,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 96,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,385,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	80.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	53.0	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,288,831	1,141,440	147,391
– Gross Longs:	432,134	3,303,026	279,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,720,965	2,161,586	132,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.7	86.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-6.5	8.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,398,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 70,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,468,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	61.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-1,398,500	1,250,881	147,619
– Gross Longs:	458,979	4,994,986	446,125
– Gross Shorts:	1,857,479	3,744,105	298,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	93.9	99.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	13.7	18.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -685,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -27,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	64.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-685,354	632,924	52,430
– Gross Longs:	510,993	3,700,892	431,609
– Gross Shorts:	1,196,347	3,067,968	379,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	82.4	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	2.4	-9.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -257,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -234,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.3	13.6
– Net Position:	-257,895	327,143	-69,248
– Gross Longs:	200,148	1,587,632	206,483
– Gross Shorts:	458,043	1,260,489	275,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	100.0	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	11.1	-22.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -102,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	75.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	71.0	12.2
– Net Position:	-102,176	51,573	50,603
– Gross Longs:	107,866	980,494	210,065
– Gross Shorts:	210,042	928,921	159,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	30.3	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.0	-32.7	5.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -329,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -322,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-329,265	319,441	9,824
– Gross Longs:	95,430	1,304,297	176,634
– Gross Shorts:	424,695	984,856	166,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	53.0	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.9	-25.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

02 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,379 contracts) with Silver (6,828 contracts), Platinum (2,898 contracts), Steel (682 contracts) and Palladium (116 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a dip of just -329 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25

Strength Scores led by Steel, Silver & Gold

On the downside, Palladium (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (65.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.6 percent)
Silver (67.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.4 percent)
Copper (27.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (38.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.9 percent)
Steel (98.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.9 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (38 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. All the markets in the metals category have positive trends for the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (44.1 percent)
Silver (20.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.6 percent)
Copper (19.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.7 percent)
Platinum (22.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.6 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.2 percent)
Steel (21.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 200,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.3	22.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	66.1	5.4
– Net Position:	200,084	-218,592	18,508
– Gross Longs:	289,845	115,596	45,650
– Gross Shorts:	89,761	334,188	27,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	39.5	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-35.0	9.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 34,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	29.0	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.3	9.4
– Net Position:	34,280	-47,855	13,575
– Gross Longs:	62,880	40,287	26,647
– Gross Shorts:	28,600	88,142	13,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	35.9	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.7	9.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	38.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	36.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-3,872	4,912	-1,040
– Gross Longs:	62,749	67,348	13,309
– Gross Shorts:	66,621	62,436	14,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	75.7	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-15.2	-22.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	25.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	45.3	4.5
– Net Position:	10,034	-14,272	4,238
– Gross Longs:	38,438	17,603	7,403
– Gross Shorts:	28,404	31,875	3,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	64.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-18.2	-11.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	59.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	7.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-10,171	10,348	-177
– Gross Longs:	4,804	11,790	1,610
– Gross Shorts:	14,975	1,442	1,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	8.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	92.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.1	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	70.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	70.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-233	-30	263
– Gross Longs:	4,967	14,556	453
– Gross Shorts:	5,200	14,586	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.6	1.1	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-23.5	46.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

02 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets this week was Live Cattle (1,201 contracts) with Coffee (224 contracts) and Cotton (176 contracts) also showing small positive gains.

The declines were much great this week and were led by Corn (-33,142 contracts), Soybeans (-23,109 contracts), Wheat (-19,673 contracts), Sugar (-17,061 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,335 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,921 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,272 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,193 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,563,737	15	183,171	11	-206,779	91	23,608	28
Gold	505,658	39	200,084	65	-218,592	40	18,508	29
Silver	139,144	31	34,280	67	-47,855	36	13,575	42
Copper	173,233	21	-3,872	28	4,912	76	-1,040	12
Palladium	19,904	65	-10,171	9	10,348	93	-177	31
Platinum	70,437	52	10,034	39	-14,272	64	4,238	25
Natural Gas	1,312,707	71	-107,889	33	87,193	70	20,696	29
Brent	145,818	24	-39,062	36	35,968	66	3,094	53
Heating Oil	303,447	37	37,349	90	-58,291	18	20,942	67
Soybeans	736,483	43	50,697	14	-30,394	86	-20,303	55
Corn	1,290,429	13	-157,148	0	175,160	100	-18,012	100
Coffee	193,911	13	30,558	59	-32,407	44	1,849	35
Sugar	875,946	43	205,076	65	-249,605	33	44,529	61
Wheat	411,837	72	-97,204	0	98,645	100	-1,441	60

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (83 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (65 percent), Coffee (59 percent) and Soybean Oil (26 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Soybeans (13.5 percent) all came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.7 percent)
Sugar (64.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.0 percent)
Coffee (58.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.5 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (78.6 percent)
Live Cattle (21.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (13.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (83.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (84.3 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.7 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (32 percent) and Soybean Meal (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-20 percent), Wheat (-19 percent) and Soybean Oil (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.4 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.2 percent)
Coffee (31.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (47.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (30.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (46.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.7 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-34.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.1 percent)
Wheat (-19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -157,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	34.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-157,148	175,160	-18,012
– Gross Longs:	251,194	616,045	152,623
– Gross Shorts:	408,342	440,885	170,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	12.0	20.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 205,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.8	5.1
– Net Position:	205,076	-249,605	44,529
– Gross Longs:	290,604	361,766	89,368
– Gross Shorts:	85,528	611,371	44,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	33.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.6	-6.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.7	4.8
– Net Position:	30,558	-32,407	1,849
– Gross Longs:	64,033	71,780	11,068
– Gross Shorts:	33,475	104,187	9,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.3	8.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	54.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.2	9.8
– Net Position:	50,697	-30,394	-20,303
– Gross Longs:	138,388	398,034	51,620
– Gross Shorts:	87,691	428,428	71,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.6	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-6.7	-12.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.7	5.3
– Net Position:	14,039	-19,288	5,249
– Gross Longs:	99,192	230,705	30,895
– Gross Shorts:	85,153	249,993	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	72.6	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	13.2	4.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	33.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	61.0	6.2
– Net Position:	130,628	-150,026	19,398
– Gross Longs:	174,164	180,980	53,313
– Gross Shorts:	43,536	331,006	33,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-31.0	2.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	38.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	51.9	12.6
– Net Position:	39,857	-36,327	-3,530
– Gross Longs:	78,406	105,202	30,770
– Gross Shorts:	38,549	141,529	34,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.3	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.5	39.7	31.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	39.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	25.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-25,276	27,193	-1,917
– Gross Longs:	54,404	76,877	18,358
– Gross Shorts:	79,680	49,684	20,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	94.6	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.5	-1.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.6	7.0
– Net Position:	6,184	-4,226	-1,958
– Gross Longs:	61,638	87,247	11,436
– Gross Shorts:	55,454	91,473	13,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.5	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	22.9	-40.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	25.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	50.8	4.4
– Net Position:	71,646	-73,777	2,131
– Gross Longs:	129,235	71,629	14,652
– Gross Shorts:	57,589	145,406	12,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	17.9	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	1.8	-19.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	16.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,204	98,645	-1,441
– Gross Longs:	114,707	164,692	34,939
– Gross Shorts:	211,911	66,047	36,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	24.6	-22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

02 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (15,053 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (9,700 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (2,234 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,753 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,786 contracts), the VIX (-105 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-121 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,279,894	28	-65,027	55	21,959	43	43,068	54
Nikkei 225	17,204	43	-2,360	50	1,504	45	856	39
Nasdaq-Mini	293,315	75	7,278	50	-10,902	31	3,624	81
DowJones-Mini	98,357	61	-24,608	27	29,427	78	-4,819	20
VIX	390,752	67	-47,536	78	48,576	19	-1,040	91
Nikkei 225 Yen	65,679	65	15,065	81	4,801	24	-19,866	43

Strength Scores led by the VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (26.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (41.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (49.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-16 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-30.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-28.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	48.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	36.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-47,536	48,576	-1,040
– Gross Longs:	90,304	191,025	26,270
– Gross Shorts:	137,840	142,449	27,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	19.5	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.2	38.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	72.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-65,027	21,959	43,068
– Gross Longs:	281,709	1,671,401	258,805
– Gross Shorts:	346,736	1,649,442	215,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	42.9	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-2.9	9.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	65.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	35.1	16.8
– Net Position:	-24,608	29,427	-4,819
– Gross Longs:	22,196	63,963	11,679
– Gross Shorts:	46,804	34,536	16,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	77.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-18.3	1.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	56.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.4	13.3
– Net Position:	7,278	-10,902	3,624
– Gross Longs:	78,702	166,329	42,502
– Gross Shorts:	71,424	177,231	38,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	30.8	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	1.5	15.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,493 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	80.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	71.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,493	52,149	3,344
– Gross Longs:	75,264	444,001	26,746
– Gross Shorts:	130,757	391,852	23,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	58.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	0.9	26.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	65.1	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	56.4	16.5
– Net Position:	-2,360	1,504	856
– Gross Longs:	2,250	11,204	3,693
– Gross Shorts:	4,610	9,700	2,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	45.0	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.3	-1.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -62,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	91.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	77.3	1.9
– Net Position:	-62,032	57,252	4,780
– Gross Longs:	19,593	372,693	12,373
– Gross Shorts:	81,625	315,441	7,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	96.1	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	29.2	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

02 Dec

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Steel, Corn & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 28th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 527,237 net contracts this week with a rise of 27,337 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 21.8 this week. The speculator position registered -233 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 682 contracts in speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 90.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,349 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,447 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 83.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,646 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,193 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week.

The speculator position was -6,452 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -94 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -157,148 net contracts this week with a drop of -33,142 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.4 this week. The speculator position was -97,204 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,673 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,486 net contracts this week with a slide of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -20,289 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,295 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -257,895 net contracts this week with a decrease of -23,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Japanese Yen bearish bets to 6-year high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,851 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (6,642 contracts), the Brazilian Real (5,100 contracts), Bitcoin (333 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-26,209 contracts), the British Pound (-11,478 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,393 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,094 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,682 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-2,589 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculator bets decline to 6-year high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the renewed boost in the weakness of the Japanese yen speculator positioning. Large speculative yen positions fell sharply this week by -26,209 net contracts and dropped for the third straight week. Over the past sixteen weeks, the yen speculator bets have decreased in twelve of those weeks and a total of -52,497 contracts have been added to the current bearish standing.

This week’s yen net position of -130,249 contracts marks the most bearish level of the past 313 weeks, dating all the way back to November 14th of 2017 (exactly six years to the date) when the net position had fallen to -135,999 contracts.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has continued with an ultra-loose monetary policy regime in contrast to most major economies that have been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures over the past year. The BOJ recently kept its interest rate unchanged (currently at -0.1 percent) but changed the upper level for the 10-year interest rate to 1 percent and cited an expectation of higher inflation going forward. Market watchers are speculating that the BOJ could end its negative interest rates as early as January. Depending on the path and the many variables going forward, a normalization of policy could be a benefit for the Japanese yen which has been at weakest levels in three decades.

This week, the yen exchange rate against the US Dollar was stronger and managed to close the week at the 149.50 level. This was a turnaround at the end of the week after the USDJPY currency pair touched the 151.90 exchange level on Monday (a higher USDJPY exchange rate means dollar strength & yen weakness) which was the highest point for the currency pair since October of 2022 when the pair reached a high of 151.94.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	38,842	32	19,734	58	-20,378	43	644	13
EUR	702,463	35	108,907	67	-140,987	36	32,080	30
GBP	216,411	47	-27,730	37	35,439	66	-7,709	43
JPY	273,763	91	-130,249	0	133,272	100	-3,023	47
CHF	59,464	93	-20,151	1	27,543	89	-7,392	35
CAD	206,046	65	-70,403	0	77,698	100	-7,295	7
AUD	197,469	56	-70,956	24	79,057	77	-8,101	33
NZD	49,906	56	-17,034	11	19,170	88	-2,136	25
MXN	228,809	48	43,382	66	-47,568	33	4,186	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,030	64	31,651	76	-33,408	24	1,757	51
Bitcoin	21,203	96	-1,344	46	481	0	863	33

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the EuroFX (67 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.4 percent)
EuroFX (66.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (58.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (28.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (65.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.9 percent)
Bitcoin (46.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (19 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (2 percent) represent the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Bitcoin (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.5 percent)
EuroFX (12.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-14.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-22.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-29.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-52.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.2	17.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	70.3	7.6
– Net Position:	19,734	-20,378	644
– Gross Longs:	27,271	6,917	3,615
– Gross Shorts:	7,537	27,295	2,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	43.4	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-0.3	-8.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 108,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.4	7.4
– Net Position:	108,907	-140,987	32,080
– Gross Longs:	221,190	381,765	83,714
– Gross Shorts:	112,283	522,752	51,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	36.4	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.6	10.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	60.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	43.7	15.8
– Net Position:	-27,730	35,439	-7,709
– Gross Longs:	52,797	130,004	26,403
– Gross Shorts:	80,527	94,565	34,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	65.5	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	10.0	6.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	73.0	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	24.3	16.5
– Net Position:	-130,249	133,272	-3,023
– Gross Longs:	27,772	199,890	42,074
– Gross Shorts:	158,021	66,618	45,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	7.5	1.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	71.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	24.7	32.0
– Net Position:	-20,151	27,543	-7,392
– Gross Longs:	5,515	42,240	11,612
– Gross Shorts:	25,666	14,697	19,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	89.5	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	0.3	11.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	73.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	36.1	17.7
– Net Position:	-70,403	77,698	-7,295
– Gross Longs:	18,678	152,043	29,204
– Gross Shorts:	89,081	74,345	36,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.4	-19.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	67.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	27.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-70,956	79,057	-8,101
– Gross Longs:	32,728	132,639	21,818
– Gross Shorts:	103,684	53,582	29,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	76.7	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-13.7	17.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	73.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	35.4	10.5
– Net Position:	-17,034	19,170	-2,136
– Gross Longs:	8,818	36,817	3,107
– Gross Shorts:	25,852	17,647	5,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.0	88.3	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	19.2	11.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	60.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	81.4	1.2
– Net Position:	43,382	-47,568	4,186
– Gross Longs:	79,162	138,716	6,874
– Gross Shorts:	35,780	186,284	2,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	33.0	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	11.7	9.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.8	21.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	70.8	2.5
– Net Position:	31,651	-33,408	1,757
– Gross Longs:	49,537	14,767	3,478
– Gross Shorts:	17,886	48,175	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	24.1	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-19.9	7.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.2	5.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	2.9	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,344	481	863
– Gross Longs:	15,939	1,105	1,609
– Gross Shorts:	17,283	624	746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	82.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.1	53.2	10.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the way for the metals this week was Silver with a total gain of 4,145 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-10,954 contracts), Gold (-10,840 contracts), Copper (-6,320 contracts), Steel (-465 contracts) and Palladium (-207 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	486,634	30	155,376	45	-177,019	56	21,643	38
Silver	134,826	26	22,398	50	-31,634	56	9,236	18
Copper	206,072	47	-16,608	16	16,449	85	159	19
Palladium	27,381	100	-11,230	2	11,283	99	-53	39
Platinum	85,870	97	-3,996	6	-2,365	89	6,361	53

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Platinum (6 percent) and Copper (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels this week and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (45.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (50.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.3 percent)
Copper (16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.0 percent)
Platinum (6.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.6 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (92.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.4 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (28 percent) and Steel (15 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for the metals category.

Platinum (-15 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) were the leaders for the downside trend scores on the week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (28.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (22.2 percent)
Silver (10.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.6 percent)
Copper (4.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.0 percent)
Platinum (-15.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.8 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.7 percent)
Steel (14.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 155,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	22.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	59.1	4.9
– Net Position:	155,376	-177,019	21,643
– Gross Longs:	254,352	110,728	45,409
– Gross Shorts:	98,976	287,747	23,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.6	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.2	-25.1	2.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	33.8	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	57.2	12.0
– Net Position:	22,398	-31,634	9,236
– Gross Longs:	50,291	45,551	25,379
– Gross Shorts:	27,893	77,185	16,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	55.6	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-1.5	-32.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	39.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	31.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-16,608	16,449	159
– Gross Longs:	61,976	80,287	15,028
– Gross Shorts:	78,584	63,838	14,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.3	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.9	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	29.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	31.8	4.1
– Net Position:	-3,996	-2,365	6,361
– Gross Longs:	44,969	24,942	9,842
– Gross Shorts:	48,965	27,307	3,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	88.6	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	10.6	19.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	49.6	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.8	8.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-11,230	11,283	-53
– Gross Longs:	5,689	13,583	1,911
– Gross Shorts:	16,919	2,300	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.9	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.0	5.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	75.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	66.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-1,768	1,628	140
– Gross Longs:	3,446	13,641	400
– Gross Shorts:	5,214	12,013	260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	7.6	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-15.7	28.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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