By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (3,283 contracts) with Cocoa (1,288 contracts) and Live Cattle (348 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-54,347 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,297 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,122 contracts), Sugar (-12,378 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,539 contracts), Cotton (-2,736 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-658 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Aug-08-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,703,711 | 27 | 255,928 | 29 | -278,338 | 74 | 22,410 | 24 |
| Gold | 427,759 | 3 | 142,985 | 40 | -167,554 | 59 | 24,569 | 42 |
| Silver | 137,631 | 29 | 13,324 | 37 | -30,349 | 57 | 17,025 | 61 |
| Copper | 228,537 | 65 | -10,057 | 22 | 4,908 | 76 | 5,149 | 51 |
| Palladium | 20,470 | 100 | -10,192 | 0 | 10,299 | 100 | -107 | 35 |
| Platinum | 79,989 | 100 | 2,992 | 22 | -8,591 | 76 | 5,599 | 43 |
| Natural Gas | 1,183,146 | 46 | -107,843 | 29 | 81,717 | 72 | 26,126 | 42 |
| Brent | 121,594 | 0 | -34,740 | 44 | 32,092 | 58 | 2,648 | 45 |
| Heating Oil | 324,934 | 46 | 30,881 | 84 | -57,516 | 15 | 26,635 | 91 |
| Soybeans | 628,182 | 12 | 83,463 | 22 | -63,652 | 75 | -19,811 | 54 |
| Corn | 1,284,433 | 12 | 25,727 | 16 | 26,794 | 86 | -52,521 | 40 |
| Coffee | 180,118 | 3 | 8,495 | 36 | -8,052 | 68 | -443 | 7 |
| Sugar | 912,260 | 51 | 199,223 | 61 | -230,769 | 39 | 31,546 | 43 |
| Wheat | 343,982 | 34 | -22,794 | 51 | 25,578 | 49 | -2,784 | 63 |
Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Corn (16 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (16.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (61.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (65.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (62.4 percent)
Live Cattle (77.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.2 percent)
Cotton (39.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.2 percent)
Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (32 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (9 percent) and Lean Hogs (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-14 percent), Live Cattle (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.2 percent)
Sugar (-7.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-7.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.9 percent)
Cotton (32.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (28.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (17.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.6 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,074 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.6 | 48.3 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.6 | 46.2 | 13.7 |
| – Net Position: | 25,727 | 26,794 | -52,521 |
| – Gross Longs: | 290,414 | 619,891 | 123,007 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 264,687 | 593,097 | 175,528 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.5 | 85.7 | 40.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.0 | 14.0 | 1.2 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 45.5 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.4 | 70.8 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 199,223 | -230,769 | 31,546 |
| – Gross Longs: | 284,974 | 414,856 | 76,675 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,751 | 645,625 | 45,129 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.3 | 39.1 | 43.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.4 | 47.0 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.7 | 51.4 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 8,495 | -8,052 | -443 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,190 | 84,606 | 6,662 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,695 | 92,658 | 7,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.1 | 67.9 | 7.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.1 | 24.0 | -19.8 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,760 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 52.9 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.6 | 63.1 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | 83,463 | -63,652 | -19,811 |
| – Gross Longs: | 150,115 | 332,610 | 42,925 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,652 | 396,262 | 62,736 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.0 | 74.8 | 53.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.2 | 5.7 | 4.2 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,494 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.3 | 52.9 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.9 | 65.2 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | 49,836 | -59,001 | 9,165 |
| – Gross Longs: | 97,041 | 253,124 | 33,351 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 47,205 | 312,125 | 24,186 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.0 | 52.0 | 47.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.9 | -11.8 | 21.3 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,503 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 36.7 | 10.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 4.0 | 63.1 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 106,964 | -128,313 | 21,349 |
| – Gross Longs: | 126,380 | 178,840 | 48,850 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,416 | 307,153 | 27,501 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 6.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.0 | 38.1 | 51.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.3 | -8.3 | 31.7 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,952 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.9 | 29.3 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.6 | 54.9 | 13.2 |
| – Net Position: | 91,300 | -79,969 | -11,331 |
| – Gross Longs: | 136,919 | 91,277 | 29,710 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 45,619 | 171,246 | 41,041 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.4 | 25.0 | 26.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.7 | 15.1 | -3.4 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,228 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.8 | 38.8 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.3 | 34.9 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | -5,350 | 8,478 | -3,128 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,436 | 83,300 | 20,389 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,786 | 74,822 | 23,517 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.3 | 78.0 | 69.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.2 | -9.6 | -1.9 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,880 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.0 | 44.7 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.8 | 68.0 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | 41,144 | -49,959 | 8,815 |
| – Gross Longs: | 77,078 | 95,591 | 15,971 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 35,934 | 145,550 | 7,156 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.7 | 56.5 | 69.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 32.2 | -35.4 | 57.3 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,214 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.7 | 26.6 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 54.2 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | 79,502 | -81,601 | 2,099 |
| – Gross Longs: | 138,107 | 78,506 | 10,371 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 58,605 | 160,107 | 8,272 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.7 | 17.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.9 | -6.4 | -21.7 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,077 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.8 | 37.0 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.4 | 29.5 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | -22,794 | 25,578 | -2,784 |
| – Gross Longs: | 105,903 | 127,107 | 32,948 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 128,697 | 101,529 | 35,732 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.6 | 49.4 | 62.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.3 | -20.6 | 4.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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