By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (40,478 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (2,451 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,279 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (526 contracts), Nikkei 225 (180 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the VIX with a drop of -2,238 contracts on the week.
| Aug-08-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500-Mini | 2,221,709 | 23 | -159,570 | 41 | 139,895 | 59 | 19,675 | 51 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16,187 | 17 | -666 | 65 | -453 | 33 | 1,119 | 42 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 267,797 | 43 | -10,879 | 71 | 13,627 | 32 | -2,748 | 48 |
| DowJones-Mini | 106,566 | 75 | 4,031 | 85 | -2,467 | 29 | -1,564 | 36 |
| VIX | 376,604 | 61 | -44,404 | 87 | 48,882 | 11 | -4,478 | 73 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 48,866 | 33 | 5,831 | 52 | 15,504 | 53 | -21,335 | 38 |
Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (33 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (88.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (40.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (36 percent), the VIX (15 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The Nasdaq-Mini (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (14.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (7.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-15.7 percent)
Russell 2000-Mini (-0.5 percent) vs Russell 2000-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (36.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.1 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,166 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 45.3 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 32.3 | 7.6 |
| – Net Position: | -44,404 | 48,882 | -4,478 |
| – Gross Longs: | 95,022 | 170,481 | 24,125 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 139,426 | 121,599 | 28,603 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.1 | 10.8 | 73.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.9 | -12.8 | -13.6 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -159,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 40,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -200,048 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.8 | 74.5 | 11.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.0 | 68.2 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -159,570 | 139,895 | 19,675 |
| – Gross Longs: | 240,913 | 1,654,088 | 261,201 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 400,483 | 1,514,193 | 241,526 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.9 | 59.2 | 51.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.3 | -9.0 | 5.7 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,580 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.0 | 51.3 | 13.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.2 | 53.6 | 14.9 |
| – Net Position: | 4,031 | -2,467 | -1,564 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,027 | 54,693 | 14,336 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 28,996 | 57,160 | 15,900 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.3 | 28.8 | 36.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 65.0 | -45.9 | -1.6 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,405 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.2 | 56.7 | 14.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.3 | 51.7 | 15.8 |
| – Net Position: | -10,879 | 13,627 | -2,748 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,170 | 151,969 | 39,533 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 81,049 | 138,342 | 42,281 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 70.9 | 31.5 | 48.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.2 | 16.2 | 5.8 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -64,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,291 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.5 | 83.8 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.0 | 71.5 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | -64,511 | 63,253 | 1,258 |
| – Gross Longs: | 48,700 | 430,726 | 24,588 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 113,211 | 367,473 | 23,330 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.3 | 66.0 | 30.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.5 | 2.0 | -8.4 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -846 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.2 | 65.7 | 25.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.3 | 68.5 | 18.2 |
| – Net Position: | -666 | -453 | 1,119 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,483 | 10,631 | 4,073 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,149 | 11,084 | 2,954 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.7 | 33.1 | 42.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 36.4 | -30.5 | -7.1 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,188 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.6 | 89.6 | 3.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.3 | 85.9 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | -22,909 | 14,612 | 8,297 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,299 | 357,202 | 12,404 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 49,208 | 342,590 | 4,107 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 3.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.3 | 76.7 | 58.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.5 | 0.1 | 33.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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