Archive for COT Updates – Page 48

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,825 contracts) with the British Pound (9,916 contracts), the Australian Dollar (5,341 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,378 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,962 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (669 contracts) Bitcoin (183 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,033 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,580 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,343 contracts).

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was a sharp boost in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions rose strongly this week by over +23,000 net contracts and gained for a second straight week as well as for the third time in four weeks. Over these past four weeks, the yen speculator bets now have improved by a total of +49,118 contracts.

This turn in sentiment has taken the overall bearish net positioning for speculators down to a current level of -81,131 contracts, marking the least bearish level since August.

The yen exchange rate continued to improve as well this week versus the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair fell for a fifth consecutive week this week (a lower USDJPY exchange rate means USD weakness and JPY strength) and closed at the 142.13 level. The USDJPY is off it’s most recent high in November by about 7 percent.

Helping the yen’s fortunes lately has been a general speculation that the Bank of Japan will look to end its negative interest rate policy sometime in the coming new year. Also, on the US Dollar side, this is combined with the US Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate hold last week that has lent credence to the outlook that US interest rates will be on hold or even possibly be reduced over 2024.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index41,3453817,60154-18,0324743115
EUR792,14984147,32783-182,3572135,03035
GBP243,6776321,58171-20,10134-1,48055
JPY257,58180-81,1312779,527741,60457
CHF65,186100-14,4741719,31375-4,83944
CAD213,87371-55,2451361,19390-5,94810
AUD208,92764-52,3404154,86858-2,52846
NZD58,30877-13,4882013,1097537954
MXN269,0746274,12584-79,064144,93943
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL68,6465446,66495-48,95552,29156
Bitcoin21,21189-2,067351,188087933

 


Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent), the Mexican Peso (84 percent) and the EuroFX (83 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.2 percent)
EuroFX (83.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (63.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (99.7 percent)
Bitcoin (35.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.5 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (48 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (26 percent), the Mexican Peso (26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-5 percent), Bitcoin (-5 percent), the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (26.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (58.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-4.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-27.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.018.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.462.26.5
– Net Position:17,601-18,032431
– Gross Longs:28,1007,6773,116
– Gross Shorts:10,49925,7092,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.347.114.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.33.3-8.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 147,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.354.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.777.78.2
– Net Position:147,327-182,35735,030
– Gross Longs:231,837433,209100,250
– Gross Shorts:84,510615,56665,220
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.120.934.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.4-27.418.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.647.418.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.755.718.9
– Net Position:21,581-20,101-1,480
– Gross Longs:72,011115,62044,638
– Gross Shorts:50,430135,72146,118
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.834.455.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.1-30.424.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.067.115.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.536.214.4
– Net Position:-81,13179,5271,604
– Gross Longs:28,226172,75638,804
– Gross Shorts:109,35793,22937,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.274.056.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.6-13.610.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.165.219.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.335.627.0
– Net Position:-14,47419,313-4,839
– Gross Longs:3,97042,48912,788
– Gross Shorts:18,44423,17617,627
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.574.543.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-12.122.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -55,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.171.913.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.943.216.1
– Net Position:-55,24561,193-5,948
– Gross Longs:19,457153,67828,390
– Gross Shorts:74,70292,48534,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.789.79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.03.21.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.867.110.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.940.811.9
– Net Position:-52,34054,868-2,528
– Gross Longs:30,967140,17222,411
– Gross Shorts:83,30785,30424,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.858.446.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.8-23.821.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.859.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.936.87.1
– Net Position:-13,48813,109379
– Gross Longs:13,27334,5884,515
– Gross Shorts:26,76121,4794,136
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.374.654.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-7.145.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.549.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.079.10.7
– Net Position:74,125-79,0644,939
– Gross Longs:114,396133,8476,875
– Gross Shorts:40,271212,9111,936
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.242.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.1-26.815.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.320.95.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.392.32.2
– Net Position:46,664-48,9552,291
– Gross Longs:50,30514,3753,767
– Gross Shorts:3,64163,3301,476
– Long to Short Ratio:13.8 to 10.2 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.555.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:48.4-47.85.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.17.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:83.82.33.7
– Net Position:-2,0671,188879
– Gross Longs:15,7141,6841,654
– Gross Shorts:17,781496775
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.394.932.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.87.30.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,576 contracts) with Palladium (614 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,311 contracts), Silver (-7,845 contracts), Copper (-2,010 contracts) and Steel (-318 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold469,93922188,23360-212,8084224,57546
Silver134,2812528,45859-47,4963619,03872
Copper176,03423-4,004295,13176-1,12711
Palladium21,30972-10,638610,92097-28225
Platinum74,004627,70933-11,713694,00422

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (98 percent) and Gold (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (6 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (59.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.7 percent)
Silver (58.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.1 percent)
Copper (28.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.3 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (27.4 percent)
Palladium (5.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.6 percent)
Steel (97.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.8 percent)

 

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (12 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-7 percent) and Palladium (-3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (23.8 percent)
Silver (11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (11.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.9 percent)
Platinum (-7.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.0 percent)
Palladium (-2.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-0.1 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (20.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 188,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 203,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.222.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.267.84.7
– Net Position:188,233-212,80824,575
– Gross Longs:273,536105,71046,457
– Gross Shorts:85,303318,51821,882
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.941.845.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-11.614.7

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.528.222.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.363.68.6
– Net Position:28,458-47,49619,038
– Gross Longs:55,68437,85030,602
– Gross Shorts:27,22685,34611,564
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.936.472.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-17.434.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.338.97.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.636.08.3
– Net Position:-4,0045,131-1,127
– Gross Longs:65,63068,47613,473
– Gross Shorts:69,63463,34514,600
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.575.911.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-11.00.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.728.110.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.343.94.9
– Net Position:7,709-11,7134,004
– Gross Longs:36,78920,8047,620
– Gross Shorts:29,08032,5173,616
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.469.321.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.25.18.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.759.77.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.78.49.1
– Net Position:-10,63810,920-282
– Gross Longs:5,27012,7191,653
– Gross Shorts:15,9081,7991,935
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.696.624.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.54.8-22.4

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.569.73.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.969.60.6
– Net Position:-48523462
– Gross Longs:4,67113,862587
– Gross Shorts:5,15613,839125
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 14.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.61.382.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-9.943.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (206,446 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (116,542 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (89,307 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (79,525 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (23,682 contracts) recording strong positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,621 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,180 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,043 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months11,214,870100718,226100-715,0810-3,14586
FedFunds1,493,91545-159,19735172,72366-13,52664
2-Year3,950,41789-1,359,47471,223,11392136,36196
Long T-Bond1,308,16462-136,25936100,5754935,68474
10-Year4,475,71673-556,93128520,6846836,24781
5-Year5,737,03485-1,340,12081,206,87191133,24996

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (34.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (36.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (66.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.0 percent)

 

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (25 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (7 percent) and the  are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 718,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 206,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 511,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.852.90.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.459.20.3
– Net Position:718,226-715,081-3,145
– Gross Longs:2,328,1645,929,21126,487
– Gross Shorts:1,609,9386,644,29229,632
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.086.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.1-25.0-1.7

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -159,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.775.92.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.464.32.9
– Net Position:-159,197172,723-13,526
– Gross Longs:129,9341,133,26530,437
– Gross Shorts:289,131960,54243,963
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.566.464.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-6.220.4

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,359,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,476,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.381.66.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.750.63.2
– Net Position:-1,359,4741,223,113136,361
– Gross Longs:405,7993,222,184261,377
– Gross Shorts:1,765,2731,999,071125,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.591.995.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.9-6.44.9

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,340,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 89,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,429,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.083.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.462.55.1
– Net Position:-1,340,1201,206,871133,249
– Gross Longs:460,2114,790,468427,616
– Gross Shorts:1,800,3313,583,597294,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.290.695.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.57.011.8

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -556,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 79,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -636,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.578.28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.966.68.0
– Net Position:-556,931520,68436,247
– Gross Longs:513,9763,501,136392,754
– Gross Shorts:1,070,9072,980,452356,507
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.468.081.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.9-1.4-12.9

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -276,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -267,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.878.410.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.861.113.6
– Net Position:-276,476342,405-65,929
– Gross Longs:214,0451,553,719203,035
– Gross Shorts:490,5211,211,314268,964
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.074.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.411.8-20.7

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -136,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.376.214.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.768.511.4
– Net Position:-136,259100,57535,684
– Gross Longs:121,982996,728184,452
– Gross Shorts:258,241896,153148,768
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.048.574.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-0.2-13.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -292,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.381.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.964.09.8
– Net Position:-292,980278,28614,694
– Gross Longs:115,5771,290,226169,381
– Gross Shorts:408,5571,011,940154,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.032.351.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-14.5-13.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led this week by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (10,461 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,800 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,143 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-17,822 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,851 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-627 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-298 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,670,45461-65,0835521,4954343,58855
Nikkei 22514,75628-2,317501,8074751045
Nasdaq-Mini337,2361008,10451-10,817312,71390
DowJones-Mini112,076853,4518819929-3,65026
VIX427,22986-46,3167845,7241859299
Nikkei 225 Yen40,280179,71464-3,8811-5,83389

 


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (64 percent) and S&P500-Mini (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above a 50 percent score.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (71.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.1 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) overwhelmingly leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (2 percent) is  the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-10 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-23.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.847.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.736.97.2
– Net Position:-46,31645,724592
– Gross Longs:97,484203,21531,240
– Gross Shorts:143,800157,49130,648
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.317.699.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.717.627.2

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -65,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.670.711.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.169.99.8
– Net Position:-65,08321,49543,588
– Gross Longs:257,5331,888,239306,616
– Gross Shorts:322,6161,866,744263,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.042.954.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.47.75.5

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.258.712.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.158.516.0
– Net Position:3,451199-3,650
– Gross Longs:25,96865,77914,302
– Gross Shorts:22,51765,58017,952
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.628.526.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:85.5-68.24.2

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.262.913.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.866.112.4
– Net Position:8,104-10,8172,713
– Gross Longs:71,616212,00144,538
– Gross Shorts:63,512222,81841,825
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.430.989.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-5.48.2

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.280.46.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.273.65.0
– Net Position:-50,62943,2047,425
– Gross Longs:65,483513,99139,542
– Gross Shorts:116,112470,78732,117
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.353.249.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.31.327.4

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.966.121.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.653.817.5
– Net Position:-2,3171,807510
– Gross Longs:1,9109,7483,098
– Gross Shorts:4,2277,9412,588
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.146.945.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.14.4-4.6

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.092.02.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.081.01.2
– Net Position:-54,70950,5644,145
– Gross Longs:22,631419,8089,840
– Gross Shorts:77,340369,2445,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.389.537.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.15.716.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (27,046 contracts) with Corn (9,224 contracts), Cotton (7,547 contracts), Coffee (2,308 contracts), Live Cattle (1,300 contracts) and Cocoa (392 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-58,077 contracts), Soybean Meal (-31,907 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,060 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,765 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,759 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,650,24523151,5993-175,3269823,72728
Gold469,93922188,23360-212,8084224,57546
Silver134,2812528,45859-47,4963619,03872
Copper176,03423-4,004295,13176-1,12711
Palladium21,30972-10,638610,92097-28225
Platinum74,004627,70933-11,713694,00422
Natural Gas1,412,60290-111,6173288,0227123,59536
Brent126,6717-17,5777815,753241,82437
Heating Oil302,9403727,12072-41,2874314,16740
Soybeans718,6483817,5391-21697-17,32362
Corn1,251,1008-101,2158131,53094-30,31581
Coffee210,3902536,56865-38,176381,60833
Sugar781,52721107,39229-129,6317022,23931
Wheat347,46035-40,0214048,54363-8,52229

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (79 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (1 percent), Lean Hogs (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (29.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.5 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (62.6 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (48.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.4 percent)
Live Cattle (20.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.4 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (78.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (78.2 percent)
Wheat (39.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (20.9 percent)

 

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.8 percent)
Sugar (-38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.4 percent)
Coffee (14.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.3 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.9 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -101,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.346.810.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.436.313.0
– Net Position:-101,215131,530-30,315
– Gross Longs:266,655585,265132,780
– Gross Shorts:367,870453,735163,095
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.993.680.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.92.6-6.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.752.29.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.968.86.6
– Net Position:107,392-129,63122,239
– Gross Longs:200,473408,05174,109
– Gross Shorts:93,081537,68251,870
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.469.731.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.439.5-29.9

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.937.55.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.555.64.7
– Net Position:36,568-38,1761,608
– Gross Longs:67,14978,87811,508
– Gross Shorts:30,581117,0549,900
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.937.933.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.7-16.225.3

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.053.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.653.69.7
– Net Position:17,539-216-17,323
– Gross Longs:107,860384,69852,732
– Gross Shorts:90,321384,91470,055
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.596.662.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.50.6-6.9

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.649.76.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.849.55.9
– Net Position:-5,8046995,105
– Gross Longs:86,954232,18232,465
– Gross Shorts:92,758231,48327,360
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.883.032.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.916.1-0.8

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.338.010.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.760.36.2
– Net Position:84,744-107,38922,645
– Gross Longs:136,307183,33952,503
– Gross Shorts:51,563290,72829,858
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.649.857.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.417.715.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.838.911.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.251.813.2
– Net Position:38,758-34,044-4,714
– Gross Longs:71,116103,17630,336
– Gross Shorts:32,358137,22035,050
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.781.164.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.312.08.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.540.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.523.510.8
– Net Position:-28,45532,876-4,421
– Gross Longs:54,21277,62216,150
– Gross Shorts:82,66744,74620,571
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.399.763.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.411.5-11.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.744.75.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.551.95.6
– Net Position:14,104-14,14743
– Gross Longs:66,28088,02311,017
– Gross Shorts:52,176102,17010,974
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.380.816.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.47.1-12.0

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.627.05.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.651.24.4
– Net Position:67,303-70,6523,349
– Gross Longs:118,74779,02016,150
– Gross Shorts:51,444149,67212,801
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.621.130.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.21.57.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.238.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.725.010.5
– Net Position:-40,02148,543-8,522
– Gross Longs:108,383135,27628,033
– Gross Shorts:148,40486,73336,555
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.762.829.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.5-14.9-41.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Steel, Ultra 10-Year & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 25.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was  718,226 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 206,446 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Steel


The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 8.3 this week. The speculator position registered -485 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -318 contracts in speculator bets.


1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 52.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 93,215 net contracts this week with a small rise by 6,248 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 95.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 48.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 46,664 net contracts this week with a change of -3,580 contracts in the speculator bets.


DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a huge gain of 85.5 this week.

The speculator position was 3,451 net contracts this week with an increase of 3,143 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -276,476 net contracts this week with a drop of -8,621 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0.5 this week. The speculator position was 17,539 net contracts this week with a dip lower by -2,759 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


WTI Crude Oil


The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 151,599 net contracts this week with a decline of -17,391 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week. The speculator position was -10,638 net contracts this week with a small rise of 614 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Lean Hogs


Finally, the Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 6.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.4 this week. The speculator position was -28,455 net contracts this week with a drop of -3,765 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,460 contracts) with Silver (2,023 contracts), Copper (1,878 contracts) and Steel (66 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,901 contracts) with Palladium (-1,081 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold487,46930203,54467-226,9453623,40143
Silver139,7533236,30370-52,0143115,71154
Copper176,37324-1,994302,13973-14518
Palladium21,27172-11,252211,27799-2540
Platinum75,508675,13327-9,183744,05022

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (99 percent) and Silver (70 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Platinum (27 percent) and Copper (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (70.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.2 percent)
Copper (30.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (28.6 percent)
Platinum (27.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.7 percent)
Palladium (1.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (98.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.6 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (24 percent) and Steel (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-0.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (23.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.4 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.7 percent)
Copper (16.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (13.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.4 percent)
Palladium (-0.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (20.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (21.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 203,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.321.29.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.567.74.9
– Net Position:203,544-226,94523,401
– Gross Longs:288,840103,19347,483
– Gross Shorts:85,296330,13824,082
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.736.342.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-23.619.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.329.318.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.366.57.6
– Net Position:36,303-52,01415,711
– Gross Longs:63,24140,97426,387
– Gross Shorts:26,93892,98810,676
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.130.953.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-21.130.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.639.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.738.17.7
– Net Position:-1,9942,139-145
– Gross Longs:62,78069,40213,390
– Gross Shorts:64,77467,26313,535
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.373.417.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-15.93.1

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.529.710.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.741.94.9
– Net Position:5,133-9,1834,050
– Gross Longs:37,39522,4487,743
– Gross Shorts:32,26231,6313,693
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.474.522.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-9.0-16.8

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.160.28.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.07.28.9
– Net Position:-11,25211,277-25
– Gross Longs:4,92012,8141,859
– Gross Shorts:16,1721,5371,884
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 18.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.698.840.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.2-10.8

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 66 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.568.22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.469.50.7
– Net Position:-167-241408
– Gross Longs:4,70712,586543
– Gross Shorts:4,87412,827135
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 14.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.80.277.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.9-22.955.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Currency Speculators raised their British Pound bets into bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (19,560 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (17,363 contracts), the Australian Dollar (13,538 contracts), the EuroFX (9,195 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,971 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (5,394 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,281 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,159 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,437 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (857 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The only currency (cryptocurrency) seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Bitcoin with a dip by -505 contracts.

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by almost +20,000 contracts, following up on last week’s gain by +18,203 contracts. The GBP speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +32,036 contracts over that period.

This bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +11,665 contracts) back into an overall bullish level for the first time since September 26th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar took a breather this week after gaining for three consecutive weeks and touching over the 1.2700 level. The Sterling’s exchange descended this week to the major psychological support level of 1.2500 but managed to bounce from that major support back up to 1.2551 to close out the week.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,4513619,94458-19,56145-3835
EUR756,61565152,36085-188,9291836,56937
GBP218,8734811,66564-11,9833931859
JPY267,48287-104,95614106,21887-1,26251
CHF60,35696-17,852823,71383-5,86140
CAD197,79159-57,8481163,29091-5,44211
AUD195,56954-57,6813654,899582,78259
NZD54,73268-16,4501315,215791,23565
MXN257,0535873,45684-78,636155,18044
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL72,4875950,244100-52,08911,84552
Bitcoin23,035100-2,250331,387086333

 


Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (100 percent) and the EuroFX (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (84 percent), British Pound (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (8 percent),  the Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (58.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (63.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the EuroFX (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent), Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.1 percent)
EuroFX (28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-27.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-31.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.717.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.465.78.1
– Net Position:19,944-19,561-383
– Gross Longs:28,1997,0092,891
– Gross Shorts:8,25526,5703,274
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.244.74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.5-14.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 152,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.153.511.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.078.46.5
– Net Position:152,360-188,92936,569
– Gross Longs:235,684404,55085,929
– Gross Shorts:83,324593,47949,360
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.218.537.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.6-30.322.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.349.913.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.055.312.9
– Net Position:11,665-11,983318
– Gross Longs:66,359109,11228,621
– Gross Shorts:54,694121,09528,303
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.939.058.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-22.017.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -104,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.668.815.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.829.116.1
– Net Position:-104,956106,218-1,262
– Gross Longs:28,266184,15641,899
– Gross Shorts:133,22277,93843,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.086.950.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.90.78.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.269.921.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.830.630.7
– Net Position:-17,85223,713-5,861
– Gross Longs:3,73242,16412,655
– Gross Shorts:21,58418,45118,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.982.540.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.8-6.222.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.071.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.239.417.4
– Net Position:-57,84863,290-5,442
– Gross Longs:19,753141,25929,036
– Gross Shorts:77,60177,96934,478
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.591.010.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.76.0-1.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.863.613.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.335.512.2
– Net Position:-57,68154,8992,782
– Gross Longs:32,886124,38826,639
– Gross Shorts:90,56769,48923,857
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.058.459.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.3-33.145.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -16,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.666.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.638.66.7
– Net Position:-16,45015,2151,235
– Gross Longs:11,79636,3584,902
– Gross Shorts:28,24621,1433,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.679.464.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.4-1.952.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.451.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.882.40.7
– Net Position:73,456-78,6365,180
– Gross Longs:108,921133,0636,872
– Gross Shorts:35,465211,6991,692
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 14.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.014.544.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-22.818.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.021.24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.793.12.2
– Net Position:50,244-52,0891,845
– Gross Longs:53,67415,3683,437
– Gross Shorts:3,43067,4571,592
– Long to Short Ratio:15.6 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.70.651.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.5-56.91.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.78.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.52.23.4
– Net Position:-2,2501,387863
– Gross Longs:17,9071,8951,641
– Gross Shorts:20,157508778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.5100.032.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.046.4-0.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,336 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (48,898 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-30,927 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-187,185 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,903 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,457 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,960 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,972,383100511,78099-508,6911-3,08986
FedFunds1,482,07244-153,15436165,09765-11,94368
2-Year4,111,53496-1,476,01601,334,625100141,39198
Long T-Bond1,299,43159-130,0793882,8524247,22783
10-Year4,536,41877-636,45621584,1147652,34285
5-Year5,775,24987-1,429,42731,292,57997136,84897

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (56 percent) were leading the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (99.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

 

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (13.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 511,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 527,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.253.70.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.558.30.8
– Net Position:511,780-508,691-3,089
– Gross Longs:2,213,0855,890,36079,464
– Gross Shorts:1,701,3056,399,05182,553
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.11.086.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-13.3-1.8

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.474.52.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.763.42.8
– Net Position:-153,154165,097-11,943
– Gross Longs:138,7691,104,26030,097
– Gross Shorts:291,923939,16342,040
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.864.867.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.3-13.218.0

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,476,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -187,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,288,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.682.46.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.549.93.1
– Net Position:-1,476,0161,334,625141,391
– Gross Longs:392,7293,387,065269,898
– Gross Shorts:1,868,7452,052,440128,507
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.097.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.32.75.7

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,398,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.284.27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.961.85.2
– Net Position:-1,429,4271,292,579136,848
– Gross Longs:413,0244,864,463438,764
– Gross Shorts:1,842,4513,571,884301,916
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.596.996.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.925.416.7

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -636,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 48,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -685,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.678.39.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.765.48.0
– Net Position:-636,456584,11452,342
– Gross Longs:482,5553,552,088415,343
– Gross Shorts:1,119,0112,967,974363,001
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.776.284.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.115.0-9.6

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -267,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -257,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.578.89.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.061.813.4
– Net Position:-267,855338,116-70,261
– Gross Longs:209,3381,569,511196,892
– Gross Shorts:477,1931,231,395267,153
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.072.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.36.9-9.6

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.676.114.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.669.711.1
– Net Position:-130,07982,85247,227
– Gross Longs:111,684989,196192,050
– Gross Shorts:241,763906,344144,823
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.241.982.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-3.52.3

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -329,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.382.311.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.363.89.6
– Net Position:-316,662293,77022,892
– Gross Longs:99,0891,304,089174,300
– Gross Shorts:415,7511,010,319151,408
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.540.158.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-22.7-1.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (46,709 contracts) with Wheat (30,137 contracts), Coffee (3,702 contracts), Lean Hogs (586 contracts) and Cotton (373 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-39,607 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,399 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,977 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,783 contracts), Cocoa (-4,735 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,399 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,650,43723168,9908-194,6269325,63632
Gold487,46930203,54467-226,9453623,40143
Silver139,7533236,30370-52,0143115,71154
Copper176,37324-1,994302,13973-14518
Palladium21,27172-11,252211,27799-2540
Platinum75,508675,13327-9,183744,05022
Natural Gas1,339,39276-111,0793289,3507121,72932
Brent124,2945-23,4626721,587361,87538
Heating Oil307,5633932,79582-51,9392719,14460
Soybeans715,6033720,2982-2,96196-17,33762
Corn1,256,2569-110,4397137,75495-27,31585
Coffee208,6862434,26063-35,882401,62233
Sugar853,42838165,46950-188,8215223,35233
Wheat405,30969-67,0672172,57181-5,50443

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (78 percent) and Soybean Meal (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent) and Sugar (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (2 percent), Corn (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (14 percent), Soybean Oil (19 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (50.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.8 percent)
Coffee (62.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.8 percent)
Soybeans (1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.2 percent)
Live Cattle (19.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (21.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.9 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.4 percent)
Cocoa (78.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (83.0 percent)
Wheat (20.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-21 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Cotton (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.4 percent)
Sugar (-21.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (16.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (31.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (30.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-4.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.746.711.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.535.713.1
– Net Position:-110,439137,754-27,315
– Gross Longs:272,899586,174137,666
– Gross Shorts:383,338448,420164,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.694.585.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.88.011.8

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 165,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.248.48.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.870.56.2
– Net Position:165,469-188,82123,352
– Gross Longs:249,241413,19176,231
– Gross Shorts:83,772602,01252,879
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.551.632.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.425.4-31.1

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.336.85.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.954.04.9
– Net Position:34,260-35,8821,622
– Gross Longs:67,45076,88311,747
– Gross Shorts:33,190112,76510,125
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.640.233.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-17.721.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.355.97.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.556.39.9
– Net Position:20,298-2,961-17,337
– Gross Longs:116,761399,90153,751
– Gross Shorts:96,463402,86271,088
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.695.662.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.9-13.0

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.248.86.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.050.05.5
– Net Position:1,256-5,7924,536
– Gross Longs:92,474234,61831,193
– Gross Shorts:91,218240,41026,657
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.979.630.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.314.38.2

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,628 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.835.69.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.362.35.7
– Net Position:116,651-138,50721,856
– Gross Longs:159,725184,59751,421
– Gross Shorts:43,074323,10429,565
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.432.453.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-6.87.7

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.540.311.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.452.713.6
– Net Position:37,458-32,960-4,498
– Gross Longs:70,378106,96131,558
– Gross Shorts:32,920139,92136,056
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.382.465.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.919.717.3

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.540.28.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.324.911.3
– Net Position:-24,69029,445-4,755
– Gross Longs:54,96777,50317,073
– Gross Shorts:79,65748,05821,828
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.496.662.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.37.8-21.5

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.945.45.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.548.16.2
– Net Position:6,557-5,291-1,266
– Gross Longs:62,70489,38711,020
– Gross Shorts:56,14794,67812,286
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.786.88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.114.2-29.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.426.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.650.94.5
– Net Position:66,911-69,9933,082
– Gross Longs:122,24673,39015,894
– Gross Shorts:55,335143,38312,812
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.221.827.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.310.01.4

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -67,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.640.07.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.122.18.8
– Net Position:-67,06772,571-5,504
– Gross Longs:119,965162,29029,963
– Gross Shorts:187,03289,71935,467
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.980.643.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.911.6-36.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.