COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 47

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (70,133 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (65,855 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (36,150 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (28,000 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,627 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with decreases in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-102,365 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-26,655 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9,423 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (54 percent) and the Fed Funds (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (18.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (54.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (57.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (96.6 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Fed Funds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (18.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-23.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 751,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 685,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	50.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.4	0.4
– Net Position:	751,218	-744,978	-6,240
– Gross Longs:	1,980,330	5,041,095	32,482
– Gross Shorts:	1,229,112	5,786,073	38,722
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-12.4	-1.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	65.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	61.2	3.1
– Net Position:	-66,060	84,651	-18,591
– Gross Longs:	245,775	1,193,992	36,694
– Gross Shorts:	311,835	1,109,341	55,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	47.7	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-17.1	-13.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,202,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,238,657 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	52.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,202,507	1,088,522	113,985
– Gross Longs:	437,046	3,153,891	248,329
– Gross Shorts:	1,639,553	2,065,369	134,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.2	87.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-17.8	-10.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,196,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,170,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	65.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,196,837	1,045,883	150,954
– Gross Longs:	470,260	4,939,008	432,568
– Gross Shorts:	1,667,097	3,893,125	281,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	78.8	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-18.1	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -889,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -102,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -787,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	80.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	63.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-889,385	822,775	66,610
– Gross Longs:	421,532	3,836,497	411,684
– Gross Shorts:	1,310,917	3,013,722	345,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	30.4	3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -160,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	73.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	62.2	13.3
– Net Position:	-160,172	236,238	-76,066
– Gross Longs:	332,232	1,539,371	203,162
– Gross Shorts:	492,404	1,303,133	279,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.5	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-20.3	-3.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -127,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -155,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	73.3	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	68.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-127,752	70,146	57,606
– Gross Longs:	181,558	1,056,607	195,609
– Gross Shorts:	309,310	986,461	138,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	37.2	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-4.7	7.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -322,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	79.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	61.5	9.1
– Net Position:	-322,618	306,074	16,544
– Gross Longs:	165,101	1,339,541	170,046
– Gross Shorts:	487,719	1,033,467	153,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	46.3	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	6.2	-6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

20 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (5,473 contracts) with Coffee (3,794 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,621 contracts) and Cocoa (1,316 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-55,619 contracts), Corn (-46,935 contracts), Wheat (-13,221 contracts), Soybean Meal (-8,752 contracts), Sugar (-8,743 contracts), Lean Hogs (-987 contracts) and Live Cattle (-559 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Major Softs – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (82 percent) and Coffee (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (35 percent), Cotton (17 percent) and Sugar (12 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Soybean Oil (4 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Sugar (12 percent) and Cotton (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.1 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.5 percent)
Coffee (78.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.6 percent)
Live Cattle (3.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.5 percent)
Cotton (17.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (81.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.2 percent)
Wheat (35.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.3 percent)

Coffee & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (4 percent) and Cocoa (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-68 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-38 percent), Soybeans (-33 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.1 percent)
Sugar (-38.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-49.3 percent)
Coffee (15.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybeans (-33.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-25.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-67.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-70.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-17.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.6 percent)
Cotton (3.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.8 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -219,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -46,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	47.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	31.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-219,968	242,217	-22,249
– Gross Longs:	252,825	718,815	148,520
– Gross Shorts:	472,793	476,598	170,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.0	8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 60,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	57.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	68.0	6.8
– Net Position:	60,215	-81,568	21,353
– Gross Longs:	167,220	463,362	75,786
– Gross Shorts:	107,005	544,930	54,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	84.4	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	32.8	-2.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	35.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	58.6	3.9
– Net Position:	49,382	-51,147	1,765
– Gross Longs:	72,967	78,642	10,343
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	129,789	8,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	25.0	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.2	1.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -93,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -55,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	59.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	43.2	9.7
– Net Position:	-93,668	112,439	-18,771
– Gross Longs:	85,450	406,415	47,386
– Gross Shorts:	179,118	293,976	66,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	32.0	-3.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	50.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	45.9	5.1
– Net Position:	-27,587	25,234	2,353
– Gross Longs:	101,070	273,291	30,152
– Gross Shorts:	128,657	248,057	27,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.8	95.4	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	16.9	-8.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	48.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	50.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-11,242	-6,171	17,413
– Gross Longs:	87,316	227,973	49,045
– Gross Shorts:	98,558	234,144	31,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-67.9	69.7	-19.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	40.3	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	48.6	12.4
– Net Position:	22,808	-22,619	-189
– Gross Longs:	71,847	109,224	33,303
– Gross Shorts:	49,039	131,843	33,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	95.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	12.6	23.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	39.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	22.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-25,483	31,462	-5,979
– Gross Longs:	58,540	75,951	15,122
– Gross Shorts:	84,023	44,489	21,101
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	97.4	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.8	-5.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.7	5.9
– Net Position:	11,423	-10,695	-728
– Gross Longs:	61,411	94,659	11,495
– Gross Shorts:	49,988	105,354	12,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	83.1	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-3.7	3.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	25.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	47.3	4.7
– Net Position:	70,197	-72,315	2,118
– Gross Longs:	126,075	81,839	17,499
– Gross Shorts:	55,878	154,154	15,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	19.4	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.3	-8.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	38.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	24.7	9.5
– Net Position:	-46,611	54,064	-7,453
– Gross Longs:	109,221	153,035	30,403
– Gross Shorts:	155,832	98,971	37,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	66.9	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.7	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

20 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX with a small gain of 409 contracts for the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-52,197 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-6,767 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-6,692 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,820 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-969 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-205 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Major Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent), the Russell-Mini (95 percent), the DowJones-Mini (89 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (39.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (89.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (95.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (34.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.3 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (49 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent), the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the S&P500-Mini (-18 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (2.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-7.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (45.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (49.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (54.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-19.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	47.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	34.2	8.6
– Net Position:	-43,760	48,439	-4,679
– Gross Longs:	70,938	171,136	26,368
– Gross Shorts:	114,698	122,697	31,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	19.4	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-6.1	-18.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -169,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -52,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	69.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-169,246	102,434	66,812
– Gross Longs:	260,119	1,632,215	263,465
– Gross Shorts:	429,365	1,529,781	196,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	54.0	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	14.1	7.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	50.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	68.0	14.4
– Net Position:	17,387	-17,616	229
– Gross Longs:	32,708	49,137	14,319
– Gross Shorts:	15,321	66,753	14,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	11.5	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-30.1	16.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	54.8	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.0	13.2
– Net Position:	36,571	-38,733	2,162
– Gross Longs:	83,692	149,969	38,187
– Gross Shorts:	47,121	188,702	36,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	9.5	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.4	-27.7	-8.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	74.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	79.7	4.4
– Net Position:	14,245	-23,482	9,237
– Gross Longs:	89,004	366,952	30,721
– Gross Shorts:	74,759	390,434	21,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	5.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.4	-47.7	15.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	67.6	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	48.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-4,478	3,317	1,161
– Gross Longs:	2,076	11,981	3,669
– Gross Shorts:	6,554	8,664	2,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	56.1	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	13.9	8.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	89.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	83.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-30,095	24,686	5,409
– Gross Longs:	29,826	381,532	13,776
– Gross Shorts:	59,921	356,846	8,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	62.4	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.8	2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

14 Jan

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to highest since September

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,751 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,619 contracts), the British Pound (5,529 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,246 contracts), the Swiss Franc (823 contracts), Bitcoin (603 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (487 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,193 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,221 contracts), the EuroFX (-599 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-659 contracts) also having lower bets.

Currency Speculators continue to raise their British Pound bets to highest since September

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the recent gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week and for the seventh time over the past ten weeks.

The GBP speculator position has now been in an overall bullish position for the past six weeks following a run of nine weeks in bearish territory from the beginning of October to the end of November.

This renewed bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +20,734 contracts) to the highest level in the past sixteen weeks, dating back to September 19th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been on the move higher as well after finding a major support level at 1.2100 for a period of weeks in October and November. Since then, the GBPUSD currency pair has trended up with gains in seven out of the past nine weeks to a close this week at the 1.2753 threshold and just below the 200-week moving average at 1.2844.

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (93 percent) and the EuroFX (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Brazilian Real (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (30 percent) and the Japanese Yen (41 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (28.8 percent)
EuroFX (70.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (93.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (93.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.0 percent)
Bitcoin (42.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (47 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (45 percent), the Australian Dollar (36 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-27.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.5 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.6 percent)
Bitcoin (1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.2	15.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	24.3	13.2
– Net Position:	2,910	-2,210	-700
– Gross Longs:	16,041	3,598	2,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,131	5,808	3,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	74.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	26.4	1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 118,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	57.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	79.4	6.2
– Net Position:	118,877	-156,887	38,010
– Gross Longs:	208,473	409,738	82,429
– Gross Shorts:	89,596	566,625	44,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	30.5	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	7.3	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	44.0	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	57.3	15.0
– Net Position:	20,734	-22,875	2,141
– Gross Longs:	60,684	75,972	27,973
– Gross Shorts:	39,950	98,847	25,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	32.9	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-18.4	8.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	56.9	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	29.8	19.6
– Net Position:	-55,949	54,191	1,758
– Gross Longs:	41,364	113,876	40,937
– Gross Shorts:	97,313	59,685	39,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	60.1	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-25.0	-8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	46.1	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.1	27.8
– Net Position:	-4,392	2,524	1,868
– Gross Longs:	11,044	23,140	15,792
– Gross Shorts:	15,436	20,616	13,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	42.8	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.0	-44.9	30.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	54.7	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	55.7	14.1
– Net Position:	-7,380	-1,787	9,167
– Gross Longs:	42,286	93,842	33,353
– Gross Shorts:	49,666	95,629	24,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	50.4	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.9	-43.3	29.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	49.5	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	36.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-32,274	21,070	11,204
– Gross Longs:	47,326	77,374	28,218
– Gross Shorts:	79,600	56,304	17,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	32.9	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-39.8	33.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	41.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	41.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,767	-202	1,969
– Gross Longs:	16,221	15,791	5,164
– Gross Shorts:	17,988	15,993	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	44.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.5	-46.4	30.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 88,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.9	42.7	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	77.4	1.0
– Net Position:	88,439	-94,006	5,567
– Gross Longs:	143,436	115,940	8,184
– Gross Shorts:	54,997	209,946	2,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	5.4	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-2.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.2	24.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.9	2.0
– Net Position:	25,114	-27,756	2,642
– Gross Longs:	44,100	15,478	3,888
– Gross Shorts:	18,986	43,234	1,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.3	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	1.9	58.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.9	6.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	3.3	2.7
– Net Position:	-1,618	779	839
– Gross Longs:	20,654	1,654	1,561
– Gross Shorts:	22,272	875	722
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	84.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.3	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets go lower led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Copper (-21,784 contracts) with Gold (-19,035 contracts), Silver (-6,208 contracts), Platinum (-5,498 contracts), Steel (-2,444 contracts) and Palladium (-1,317 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

On the downside, Palladium (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (58.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.4 percent)
Copper (20.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (39.9 percent)
Platinum (69.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.6 percent)
Palladium (13.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.9 percent)
Steel (90.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (31 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.2 percent)
Silver (-11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.6 percent)
Copper (-8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.6 percent)
Palladium (4.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.6 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 188,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	21.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.2	4.4
– Net Position:	188,614	-217,701	29,087
– Gross Longs:	271,665	106,489	50,574
– Gross Shorts:	83,051	324,190	21,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	36.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	0.4	31.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	29.2	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	62.3	9.1
– Net Position:	26,362	-43,755	17,393
– Gross Longs:	52,886	38,495	29,378
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	82,250	11,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	38.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	5.2	21.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	37.6	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	33.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-13,167	9,029	4,138
– Gross Longs:	64,262	77,708	16,397
– Gross Shorts:	77,429	68,679	12,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	79.1	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	3.4	32.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	20.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	59.8	4.2
– Net Position:	23,541	-28,380	4,839
– Gross Longs:	47,209	14,631	7,883
– Gross Shorts:	23,668	43,011	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	34.8	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.2	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	63.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	11.3	9.4
– Net Position:	-9,472	9,404	68
– Gross Longs:	3,551	11,457	1,766
– Gross Shorts:	13,023	2,053	1,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	86.6	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.2	14.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	75.3	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	69.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-1,477	1,241	236
– Gross Longs:	4,078	15,118	426
– Gross Shorts:	5,555	13,877	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	9.4	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.8	-3.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (179,262 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (119,278 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75,655 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (45,643 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (4,382 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-15,127 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10,331 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-4,866 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (40.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (62.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (8.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 685,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 179,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 506,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.8	0.4
– Net Position:	685,363	-674,767	-10,596
– Gross Longs:	1,854,270	5,002,614	31,668
– Gross Shorts:	1,168,907	5,677,381	42,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	2.1	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-7.9	-4.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -136,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	60.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-136,193	142,645	-6,452
– Gross Longs:	165,155	1,131,777	38,635
– Gross Shorts:	301,348	989,132	45,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	60.0	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-16.5	20.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,238,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,243,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	51.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,238,657	1,109,623	129,034
– Gross Longs:	421,993	3,038,980	256,226
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,650	1,929,357	127,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	83.7	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-2.3	-7.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,170,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 119,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	66.1	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,170,182	1,008,597	161,585
– Gross Longs:	443,301	4,841,923	438,210
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,483	3,833,326	276,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.1	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-17.8	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -787,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -832,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	63.8	7.6
– Net Position:	-787,020	726,488	60,532
– Gross Longs:	469,964	3,695,263	414,385
– Gross Shorts:	1,256,984	2,968,775	353,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	92.5	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	12.5	1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 75,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	73.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	62.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-173,799	244,692	-70,893
– Gross Longs:	324,787	1,545,552	202,935
– Gross Shorts:	498,586	1,300,860	273,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	80.2	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-16.4	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -155,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	67.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-155,752	96,151	59,601
– Gross Longs:	178,714	1,068,735	197,999
– Gross Shorts:	334,466	972,584	138,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	46.9	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	16.6	6.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -313,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -302,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-313,195	290,221	22,974
– Gross Longs:	154,339	1,352,257	167,038
– Gross Shorts:	467,534	1,062,036	144,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	38.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-14.7	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Jan

Speculator Extremes: DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 79.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 24,079 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,537 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 44.1 this week. The speculator position registered 111,283 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 30,024 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,012 net contracts this week with a rise of 21,933 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 8.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 685,363 net contracts this week with a boost of 179,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq-Mini

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 45.4 this week.

The speculator position was 36,776 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,291 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,049 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -173,033 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,305 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -74.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,490 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -29,428 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.5 this week. The speculator position was -29,208 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

Finally, the Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The speculator position was 23,367 net contracts this week with a dip of -7,286 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

13 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a strong weekly gain by 97,039 contracts. Coming in next was the Russell-Mini (21,933 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,603 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,537 contracts), the VIX (823 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (762 contracts) also recording positive weekly gains.

The only market with a drop in speculator bets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a decline by -2,291 contracts on the week.

Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week at their top levels of the past three years. The Nasdaq-Mini (96 percent) and VIX (80 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the S&P500-Mini (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (99.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (84.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (47.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (80 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (54 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (45 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-20.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (79.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (45.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (54.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (40.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-8.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	48.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	33.9	9.3
– Net Position:	-44,169	51,245	-7,076
– Gross Longs:	69,775	171,526	25,924
– Gross Shorts:	113,944	120,281	33,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.2	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.7	-30.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -117,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 97,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	72.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-117,049	15,495	101,554
– Gross Longs:	272,247	1,602,234	278,896
– Gross Shorts:	389,296	1,586,739	177,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	42.0	77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	-0.9	23.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,542 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	47.8	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	72.4	12.5
– Net Position:	24,079	-25,433	1,354
– Gross Longs:	36,987	49,419	14,256
– Gross Shorts:	12,908	74,852	12,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.6	-80.7	30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.2	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	69.6	13.0
– Net Position:	36,776	-42,601	5,825
– Gross Longs:	83,021	150,591	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	193,192	36,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.4	-35.0	6.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -921 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	74.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	80.7	3.8
– Net Position:	21,012	-31,976	10,964
– Gross Longs:	94,710	370,642	30,111
– Gross Shorts:	73,698	402,618	19,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.3	-53.9	25.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	64.4	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	53.3	17.9
– Net Position:	-2,658	1,724	934
– Gross Longs:	1,811	9,991	3,702
– Gross Shorts:	4,469	8,267	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	46.4	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	1.3	1.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	83.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-29,126	22,977	6,149
– Gross Longs:	30,146	379,373	15,395
– Gross Shorts:	59,272	356,396	9,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	60.6	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.1	-35.1	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (3,950 contracts) with Soybean Oil (3,279 contracts), Coffee (2,160 contracts), Cotton (261 contracts) and Wheat (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-29,428 contracts), Corn (-26,305 contracts), Soybeans (-16,121 contracts) Sugar (-5,867 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,286 contracts) and Cocoa (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

On the downside there are a number of markets at extreme lows. Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Lean Hogs (10 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Cotton (13 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.6 percent)
Sugar (15.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.7 percent)
Coffee (74.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.4 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.0 percent)
Cocoa (80.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.3 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.2 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (44 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-74 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-49 percent), Soybeans (-31 percent) and Soybean Oil (-27 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.2 percent)
Sugar (-49.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-53.3 percent)
Coffee (15.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.4 percent)
Soybeans (-30.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-33.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-74.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-62.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.5 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.0 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	46.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	32.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-173,033	194,021	-20,988
– Gross Longs:	263,111	654,962	146,167
– Gross Shorts:	436,144	460,941	167,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	2.7	-4.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	57.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	67.1	7.5
– Net Position:	68,958	-81,593	12,635
– Gross Longs:	173,488	463,071	73,874
– Gross Shorts:	104,530	544,664	61,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	84.4	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.3	51.4	-42.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	58.1	3.6
– Net Position:	45,588	-47,708	2,120
– Gross Longs:	73,163	80,276	10,075
– Gross Shorts:	27,575	127,984	7,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	28.4	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.2	3.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	57.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	49.3	10.0
– Net Position:	-38,049	53,620	-15,571
– Gross Longs:	99,237	378,409	50,048
– Gross Shorts:	137,286	324,789	65,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	27.8	11.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	50.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	45.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-29,208	27,654	1,554
– Gross Longs:	95,344	258,646	29,768
– Gross Shorts:	124,552	230,992	28,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	96.7	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.6	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	48.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	50.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-2,490	-10,834	13,324
– Gross Longs:	90,725	210,311	44,758
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	221,145	31,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-74.1	75.1	-27.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	40.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	49.3	12.3
– Net Position:	23,367	-23,263	-104
– Gross Longs:	70,653	109,803	33,163
– Gross Shorts:	47,286	133,066	33,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.9	18.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	22.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-24,496	29,637	-5,141
– Gross Longs:	55,979	72,177	16,359
– Gross Shorts:	80,475	42,540	21,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	95.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	2.2	-14.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	48.5	6.4
– Net Position:	5,950	-5,513	-437
– Gross Longs:	57,617	92,979	12,617
– Gross Shorts:	51,667	98,492	13,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	86.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	26.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	47.8	5.4
– Net Position:	68,881	-67,423	-1,458
– Gross Longs:	119,536	84,761	15,778
– Gross Shorts:	50,655	152,184	17,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	24.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	6.4	-30.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	37.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	25.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-33,390	42,432	-9,042
– Gross Longs:	107,680	138,560	29,116
– Gross Shorts:	141,070	96,128	38,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	58.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-41.7	-33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Steel, DowJones, Soybeans & Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 19th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 5.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 130 net contracts this week with a rise by 615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 95.5 this week. The speculator position registered 7,123 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,672 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 577,707 net contracts this week with a drop of -140,519 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 91.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,832 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,832 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 90.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 28.8 this week.

The speculator position was 84,001 net contracts this week with a boost by 9,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,998 net contracts this week with a drop of -15,541 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 2.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.2 this week. The speculator position was -265,218 net contracts this week with an increase by 11,258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Corn speculator level resides at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -127,570 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,355 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 5.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,388,222 net contracts this week with a decline of -48,102 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

Finally, the Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 8.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.2 this week. The speculator position was -16,356 net contracts this week with a decrease of -10,552 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.