COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 46

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Steel, 3M SOFR, DowJones & CAD lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (due to holiday delay) for data ending on November 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 94.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 19.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,303 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,297 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.2 this week. The speculator position registered 386,629 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 141,657 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 87.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 13.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,049 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,070 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 86.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -3.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 75,027 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,550 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 82.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.8 this week.

The speculator position was -6,162 net contracts this week with a dip of -697 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,076 net contracts this week with a decline of -965 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.1 this week. The speculator position was -67,721 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,389 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -31.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -58,202 net contracts this week with a change of -12,717 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,423,384 net contracts this week with a decline of -231,795 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.8 this week. The speculator position was -1,453,706 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -18,258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

05 Nov

Currency Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (7,971 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,161 contracts), Swiss Franc (185 contracts), the Euro (136 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,564 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,219 contracts), the British Pound (-1,735 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,292 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-693 contracts) the US Dollar Index (-686 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the boost in the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative Aussie currency positions gained this week by almost +8,000 net contracts, the largest weekly gain in six weeks. This improved sentiment has pushed the speculators bets higher for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

The overall Aussie speculator positioning has been consistently bearish since dropping from a net bullish position to a net bearish position on May 25th of 2021. This week marks the 128th consecutive week of bearish speculator positions with the most bearish level being seen on September 19th at a total of -96,946 contracts.

There is a chance that the worst of the positioning for the AUD has been seen because of a possible divergence in central bank interest rate moves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise their benchmark rate (currently at 4.15 percent) in the next policy meeting on November 7th to combat stubborn inflation that has surpassed expectations of a faster decline.

The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, held its own rate policy steady at the most recent meeting and the current market expectation (95 percent in CME FedWatch Tool) is for the Fed to hold again at the December 13th meeting.

The Australian dollar (versus the US Dollar) saw a strong rise this week and just got over the 0.6500 psychological level to close out the week. The AUD has been in a long downtrend since reaching a high in 2021 near 0.80 exchange rate and has a long ways to go for a turnaround but so far, the currency has seen strong support at 0.6300 and has been able to avoid dropping to the 2022 lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,803	42	18,985	57	-20,096	44	1,111	19
EUR	694,962	31	85,389	57	-109,031	48	23,642	17
GBP	229,991	55	-20,371	42	34,154	65	-13,783	31
JPY	277,272	94	-103,848	8	107,566	88	-3,718	46
CHF	56,353	83	-14,910	16	25,967	87	-11,057	21
CAD	198,528	60	-49,332	9	56,052	94	-6,720	8
AUD	196,866	55	-75,110	20	86,432	82	-11,322	25
NZD	57,676	75	-12,817	22	16,236	82	-3,419	9
MXN	199,078	37	31,297	58	-33,883	41	2,586	28
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	67,068	63	9,346	47	-11,022	52	1,676	50
Bitcoin	19,603	99	-1,746	40	903	0	843	32

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso, Euro & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (58 percent), the Euro (57 percent) and the US Dollar Index (57 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.7 percent)
EuroFX (56.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (41.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (42.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (12.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (46.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (41.2 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), the Mexican Peso (-20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.7 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-17.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-40.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.4	22.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	69.5	7.8
– Net Position:	18,985	-20,096	1,111
– Gross Longs:	27,571	9,671	4,441
– Gross Shorts:	8,586	29,767	3,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	43.9	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.4	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 85,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	56.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.3	8.0
– Net Position:	85,389	-109,031	23,642
– Gross Longs:	210,834	393,348	79,333
– Gross Shorts:	125,445	502,379	55,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	48.4	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.4	-5.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	59.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	44.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-20,371	34,154	-13,783
– Gross Longs:	63,712	136,888	22,325
– Gross Shorts:	84,083	102,734	36,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	64.8	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.4	-24.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -103,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	31.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-103,848	107,566	-3,718
– Gross Longs:	37,641	193,460	41,836
– Gross Shorts:	141,489	85,894	45,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	88.1	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-1.9	12.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	67.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	21.7	35.9
– Net Position:	-14,910	25,967	-11,057
– Gross Longs:	8,888	38,201	9,178
– Gross Shorts:	23,798	12,234	20,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	86.6	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	18.4	-11.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	67.2	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	39.0	20.5
– Net Position:	-49,332	56,052	-6,720
– Gross Longs:	25,418	133,433	33,889
– Gross Shorts:	74,750	77,381	40,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	94.3	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	4.9	-13.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	25.0	17.2
– Net Position:	-75,110	86,432	-11,322
– Gross Longs:	32,805	135,553	22,592
– Gross Shorts:	107,915	49,121	33,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.0	82.2	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-17.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	68.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	40.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-12,817	16,236	-3,419
– Gross Longs:	14,332	39,509	2,907
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	23,273	6,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	81.7	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-18.3	-4.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	68.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.0	1.6
– Net Position:	31,297	-33,883	2,586
– Gross Longs:	57,470	135,287	5,745
– Gross Shorts:	26,173	169,170	3,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	41.1	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	20.1	-9.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	63.3	2.4
– Net Position:	9,346	-11,022	1,676
– Gross Longs:	29,781	31,449	3,265
– Gross Shorts:	20,435	42,471	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	52.3	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.9	-10.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.0	8.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.0	3.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,746	903	843
– Gross Longs:	15,495	1,599	1,468
– Gross Shorts:	17,241	696	625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	93.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.3	78.9	10.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

05 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (27,807 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27,106 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets were the 5-Year Bonds (-182,686 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,336 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-38,841 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-19,143 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-11,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2,438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,506,359	98	244,972	85	-244,907	15	-65	88
FedFunds	2,028,290	91	-178,027	31	201,942	73	-23,915	44
2-Year	4,188,473	99	-1,435,448	0	1,312,083	100	123,365	95
Long T-Bond	1,377,938	83	-155,381	29	101,237	47	54,144	88
10-Year	4,691,536	88	-627,698	22	531,947	73	95,751	94
5-Year	5,746,137	98	-1,191,589	5	1,110,941	92	80,648	91

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (84.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (87.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (7 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-4.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-13.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.0 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	56.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	58.9	0.4
– Net Position:	244,972	-244,907	-65
– Gross Longs:	2,164,995	5,947,333	42,010
– Gross Shorts:	1,920,023	6,192,240	42,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.9	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	14.9	3.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -178,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	76.0	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,027	201,942	-23,915
– Gross Longs:	158,853	1,540,620	28,230
– Gross Shorts:	336,880	1,338,678	52,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	72.7	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.3	3.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,435,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,424,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	82.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	51.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,435,448	1,312,083	123,365
– Gross Longs:	408,762	3,453,960	266,889
– Gross Shorts:	1,844,210	2,141,877	143,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.6	3.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,191,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	83.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	64.0	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,191,589	1,110,941	80,648
– Gross Longs:	469,045	4,790,920	403,102
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,634	3,679,979	322,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	92.0	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	13.7	3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -563,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	64.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-627,698	531,947	95,751
– Gross Longs:	572,295	3,568,418	461,152
– Gross Shorts:	1,199,993	3,036,471	365,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	72.7	94.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-14.6	11.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -252,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	63.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-252,307	283,428	-31,121
– Gross Longs:	196,655	1,555,303	222,295
– Gross Shorts:	448,962	1,271,875	253,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	94.9	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	9.2	43.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -155,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	76.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	68.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-155,381	101,237	54,144
– Gross Longs:	100,784	1,049,386	202,248
– Gross Shorts:	256,165	948,149	148,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	47.1	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-20.1	7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -336,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	63.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-336,440	307,001	29,439
– Gross Longs:	90,876	1,290,048	176,509
– Gross Shorts:	427,316	983,047	147,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	48.8	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-22.0	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

05 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (14,040 contracts) with Platinum (11,306 contracts), Copper (3,599 contracts), Steel (2,869 contracts) and Palladium (987 contracts) also coming along with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a decrease of -4,121 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Gold (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8.2 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (49.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.8 percent)
Silver (47.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.0 percent)
Copper (16.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.9 percent)
Platinum (40.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.5 percent)
Palladium (8.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (89.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.9 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (12 percent) and Steel (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.2 percent)
Silver (7.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (-0.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.3 percent)
Platinum (1.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.5 percent)
Steel (10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	22.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	60.7	5.4
– Net Position:	163,425	-182,707	19,282
– Gross Longs:	261,053	105,971	44,792
– Gross Shorts:	97,628	288,678	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	53.4	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-11.5	4.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	32.0	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.1	10.2
– Net Position:	20,211	-33,139	12,928
– Gross Longs:	48,025	40,441	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	27,814	73,580	12,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-4.1	-9.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	36.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	28.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-17,161	18,395	-1,234
– Gross Longs:	69,909	81,000	14,745
– Gross Shorts:	87,070	62,605	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	5.0	-32.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	22.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	41.6	5.1
– Net Position:	10,826	-14,186	3,360
– Gross Longs:	44,291	16,925	7,145
– Gross Shorts:	33,465	31,111	3,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.1	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.9	-17.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	51.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	7.6	7.5
– Net Position:	-10,253	10,163	90
– Gross Longs:	5,096	11,915	1,807
– Gross Shorts:	15,349	1,752	1,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.8	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	13.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	76.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	62.6	1.7
– Net Position:	-2,600	2,531	69
– Gross Longs:	3,103	13,774	380
– Gross Shorts:	5,703	11,243	311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.3	11.2	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-11.5	39.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

05 Nov

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Steel, DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 31st.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 9.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -13,979 net contracts this week with a gain of 7,615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 89.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 10.1 this week. The speculator position registered -2,600 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 2,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 85.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,465 net contracts this week with a dip of -112 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 84.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -15.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 244,972 net contracts this week with a drop of -38,841 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level sits at a 80.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.2 this week.

The speculator position was 69,477 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,543 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,111 net contracts this week with a small dip of -151 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,435,448 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,136 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybeans speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 16,260 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,194 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.9 this week. The speculator position was -252,307 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,438 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.0 this week. The speculator position was -87,696 net contracts this week with a slide of -39,416 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

05 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell 2000-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (7,615 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,744 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (4,040 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (253 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,986 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,848 contracts)and DowJones-Mini (-151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,174,689	18	4,337	65	-33,976	35	29,639	49
Nikkei 225	14,806	28	-1,875	53	1,084	42	791	38
Nasdaq-Mini	259,306	45	6,737	49	-6,592	36	-145	69
DowJones-Mini	103,936	70	-36,111	0	40,621	100	-4,510	22
VIX	353,533	49	-13,979	100	18,713	0	-4,734	72
Nikkei 225 Yen	54,580	44	4,776	49	9,666	37	-14,442	61

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above 50 percent.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (49.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (48.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (45.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (51.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the VIX (10 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-15 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-10 percent) coming in next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (9.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (21.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-40.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-50.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-9.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	45.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	40.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-13,979	18,713	-4,734
– Gross Longs:	95,012	160,163	27,346
– Gross Shorts:	108,991	141,450	32,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-10.2	4.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	72.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	73.6	10.6
– Net Position:	4,337	-33,976	29,639
– Gross Longs:	283,793	1,566,648	260,265
– Gross Shorts:	279,456	1,600,624	230,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	35.2	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.9	6.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	66.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	27.0	14.6
– Net Position:	-36,111	40,621	-4,510
– Gross Longs:	23,780	68,690	10,657
– Gross Shorts:	59,891	28,069	15,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	40.7	-24.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.9	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.4	14.6
– Net Position:	6,737	-6,592	-145
– Gross Longs:	72,368	144,956	37,843
– Gross Shorts:	65,631	151,548	37,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	36.3	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.7	2.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	72.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-39,427	40,876	-1,449
– Gross Longs:	80,998	441,734	24,237
– Gross Shorts:	120,425	400,858	25,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	53.5	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-11.0	-13.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	72.6	22.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	65.3	17.5
– Net Position:	-1,875	1,084	791
– Gross Longs:	679	10,745	3,382
– Gross Shorts:	2,554	9,661	2,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	42.5	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	12.3	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	91.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	80.2	2.3
– Net Position:	-45,485	44,671	814
– Gross Longs:	21,077	363,693	9,868
– Gross Shorts:	66,562	319,022	9,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	90.9	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	16.6	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

05 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (13,342 contracts) with Coffee (4,071 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,532 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,416 contracts), Soybeans (-20,194 contracts), Sugar (-11,106 contracts), Wheat (-9,620 contracts), Cocoa (-7,543 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,671 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,037 contracts) and Cotton (-16 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,671,255	24	262,258	31	-308,767	67	46,509	73
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13
Natural Gas	1,186,140	46	-54,652	53	39,924	52	14,728	15
Brent	139,933	19	-31,488	51	28,628	51	2,860	50
Heating Oil	299,928	36	31,391	80	-52,127	27	20,736	66
Soybeans	706,923	35	16,260	0	-1,813	96	-14,447	69
Corn	1,412,108	29	-87,696	5	114,053	94	-26,357	98
Coffee	203,130	20	22,279	50	-21,876	54	-403	8
Sugar	865,859	40	213,589	68	-258,587	30	44,998	61
Wheat	460,210	100	-69,567	17	68,593	84	974	72

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Sugar (68 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Coffee (50 percent) come in as the next highest with strength scores above 50 percent.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (5 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and the Wheat (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.5 percent)
Sugar (67.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.9 percent)
Coffee (50.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.8 percent)
Cocoa (80.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (88.5 percent)
Wheat (17.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.2 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (27 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-21 percent), Cocoa (-19 percent), Soybeans (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.1 percent)
Coffee (27.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (35.7 percent)
Soybeans (-17.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-53.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-38.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.4 percent)
Cotton (-21.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-19.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -87,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -39,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	46.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	38.6	12.1
– Net Position:	-87,696	114,053	-26,357
– Gross Longs:	278,919	659,639	144,375
– Gross Shorts:	366,615	545,586	170,732
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	94.3	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.2	12.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	38.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	68.7	4.8
– Net Position:	213,589	-258,587	44,998
– Gross Longs:	310,643	336,357	86,511
– Gross Shorts:	97,054	594,944	41,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.0	-7.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	41.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.6	5.0
– Net Position:	22,279	-21,876	-403
– Gross Longs:	54,727	85,014	9,706
– Gross Shorts:	32,448	106,890	10,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	54.1	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.4	-25.3	-15.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	57.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	57.4	9.0
– Net Position:	16,260	-1,813	-14,447
– Gross Longs:	103,628	404,124	49,384
– Gross Shorts:	87,368	405,937	63,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.2	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	14.5	10.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.3	5.5
– Net Position:	25,102	-30,434	5,332
– Gross Longs:	103,802	241,470	32,168
– Gross Shorts:	78,700	271,904	26,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	66.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	17.6	-16.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 119,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	63.5	6.1
– Net Position:	119,668	-138,842	19,174
– Gross Longs:	149,649	191,134	51,015
– Gross Shorts:	29,981	329,976	31,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	32.2	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-20.1	14.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	35.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	50.9	12.0
– Net Position:	50,186	-43,839	-6,347
– Gross Longs:	96,331	100,461	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	46,145	144,300	34,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	69.1	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	48.2	52.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	39.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	29.1	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,189	20,010	-1,821
– Gross Longs:	54,521	76,620	18,275
– Gross Shorts:	72,710	56,610	20,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	88.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	47.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	57.8	4.9
– Net Position:	22,664	-24,680	2,016
– Gross Longs:	63,750	112,247	13,608
– Gross Shorts:	41,086	136,927	11,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	73.6	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	23.6	-39.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	26.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.0	3.9
– Net Position:	69,477	-72,106	2,629
– Gross Longs:	128,136	82,848	14,576
– Gross Shorts:	58,659	154,954	11,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	19.6	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.6	-7.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	34.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	19.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-69,567	68,593	974
– Gross Longs:	122,955	157,363	36,998
– Gross Shorts:	192,522	88,770	36,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	83.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	14.5	-22.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Oct

Currency Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (3,029 contracts) with the EuroFX (2,843 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,983 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,689 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (504 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-7,427 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,952 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,444 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,342 contracts), Bitcoin (-781 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the sliding trend in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions fell this week by over -7,400 contracts and have now declined for nine consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has dropped by a total of -77,743 contracts over these past nine weeks to the lowest level of the past 30-weeks, dating back to March 28th.

Relatively recently, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts on July 18th) had risen to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years. This marked the highest level for this year’s bullish bets but the speculator positions did a u-turn and have now fallen in twelve out of the fourteen weeks since then.

Hurting the pound’s outlook has been a weak economic landscape and the expectation that the Bank of England could be done with raising interest rates. The BOE, this year, has boosted the bank’s interest rate to the highest level since 2008 at 5.25 percent to fight high inflation (which has eased to 6.7 percent).

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a high over the 1.3000 level in the middle of July. Since that 2023 summer ascension, the Sterling has been dropping sharply, falling through the 1.2500 exchange rate and is currently testing support in the 1.2050-1.2100 range.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,670	42	19,671	58	-20,531	43	860	16
EUR	702,668	39	85,253	57	-107,996	49	22,743	15
GBP	233,259	57	-18,636	43	27,337	61	-8,701	41
JPY	260,909	82	-99,629	11	104,809	87	-5,180	43
CHF	59,266	92	-15,095	15	27,136	89	-12,041	18
CAD	184,747	49	-48,639	9	53,600	93	-4,961	12
AUD	194,666	54	-83,081	13	98,853	92	-15,772	14
NZD	57,243	74	-12,851	22	16,051	81	-3,200	12
MXN	194,530	35	37,861	62	-40,188	37	2,327	26
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,454	41	5,185	42	-6,903	56	1,718	50
Bitcoin	19,678	100	-454	60	-438	0	892	33

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the Bitcoin (60 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (58 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the British Pound (43 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.9 percent)
EuroFX (56.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (59.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.3 percent)

US Dollar Index & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (-1 percent), the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Bitcoin (-40 percent), Mexican Peso (-18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.4 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-40.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-32.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (2.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-17.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-40.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-25.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.9	21.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.8	7.9
– Net Position:	19,671	-20,531	860
– Gross Longs:	28,130	9,255	4,240
– Gross Shorts:	8,459	29,786	3,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	43.2	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.3	-9.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 85,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	56.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	71.8	8.2
– Net Position:	85,253	-107,996	22,743
– Gross Longs:	215,569	396,435	80,233
– Gross Shorts:	130,316	504,431	57,490
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	48.8	15.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.7	-22.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	56.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	45.2	15.1
– Net Position:	-18,636	27,337	-8,701
– Gross Longs:	67,119	132,744	26,540
– Gross Shorts:	85,755	105,407	35,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	61.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.0	43.9	-26.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -99,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.4	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	31.3	16.3
– Net Position:	-99,629	104,809	-5,180
– Gross Longs:	30,964	186,381	37,435
– Gross Shorts:	130,593	81,572	42,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.8	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-0.9	5.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	67.0	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	21.2	36.7
– Net Position:	-15,095	27,136	-12,041
– Gross Longs:	9,807	39,724	9,692
– Gross Shorts:	24,902	12,588	21,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	88.7	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	26.8	-32.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	68.8	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	39.8	19.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	53,600	-4,961
– Gross Longs:	22,326	127,101	31,815
– Gross Shorts:	70,965	73,501	36,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	92.6	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	2.9	5.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	73.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.1	22.6	17.7
– Net Position:	-83,081	98,853	-15,772
– Gross Longs:	28,018	142,753	18,606
– Gross Shorts:	111,099	43,900	34,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	91.6	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	2.9	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	69.4	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	41.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-12,851	16,051	-3,200
– Gross Longs:	13,448	39,718	2,942
– Gross Shorts:	26,299	23,667	6,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	81.3	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.7	-6.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	68.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	89.1	1.8
– Net Position:	37,861	-40,188	2,327
– Gross Longs:	54,446	133,105	5,771
– Gross Shorts:	16,585	173,293	3,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	37.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.6	-14.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	52.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.8	3.5
– Net Position:	5,185	-6,903	1,718
– Gross Longs:	20,203	26,973	3,505
– Gross Shorts:	15,018	33,876	1,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	56.2	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	10.2	-2.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.3	3.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.6	5.5	3.7
– Net Position:	-454	-438	892
– Gross Longs:	14,814	641	1,617
– Gross Shorts:	15,268	1,079	725
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	57.3	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.4	57.3	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (36,647 contracts) with Copper (5,129 contracts), Silver (4,586 contracts), Steel (297 contracts) and Palladium (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a small decrease of -829 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (53 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (43 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Copper (13 percent) and Platinum (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (26.7 percent)
Silver (53.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.4 percent)
Copper (12.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (8.5 percent)
Platinum (14.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.4 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (77.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.3 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Silver (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-17 percent) currently leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.1 percent)
Copper (-7.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-16.5 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.9 percent)
Palladium (-3.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.1 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	22.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.7	5.5
– Net Position:	149,385	-165,873	16,488
– Gross Longs:	251,469	106,180	42,129
– Gross Shorts:	102,084	272,053	25,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	59.9	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.1	-11.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	30.9	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	58.8	10.7
– Net Position:	24,332	-34,570	10,238
– Gross Longs:	51,860	38,321	23,527
– Gross Shorts:	27,528	72,891	13,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	52.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-3.1	-21.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	39.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	30.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-20,760	21,401	-641
– Gross Longs:	71,848	88,951	14,933
– Gross Shorts:	92,608	67,550	15,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	89.4	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	9.5	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	27.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	33.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-480	-4,832	5,312
– Gross Longs:	46,048	23,554	9,166
– Gross Shorts:	46,528	28,386	3,854
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	83.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.6	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	56.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	7.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-11,240	11,085	155
– Gross Longs:	4,800	12,783	1,852
– Gross Shorts:	16,040	1,698	1,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	97.6	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	2.0	12.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	83.2	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	57.0	1.6
– Net Position:	-5,469	5,571	-102
– Gross Longs:	2,300	17,678	246
– Gross Shorts:	7,769	12,107	348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	23.4	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.5	5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

29 Oct

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, DowJones & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 24th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 95.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -21,594 net contracts this week with a change of 1,351 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position registered 77,020 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 5,528 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 87.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 283,813 net contracts this week with a change of 62,572 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 85.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,353 net contracts this week with a change of 55 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 80.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 31,988 net contracts this week with a change of -3,195 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -35,960 net contracts this week with a change of -749 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,424,312 net contracts this week with a change of -69,613 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -249,869 net contracts this week with a change of -8,704 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week. The speculator position was -11,240 net contracts this week with a change of 255 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.8 this week. The speculator position was 36,454 net contracts this week with a change of 9,349 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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