InvestMacro

The Trump administration has revised semiconductor export rules. German DAX breaks price records again

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.64% at Tuesday’s close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.72%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 1.58%. Weakening inflationary pressures boosted stocks after Tuesday’s smaller-than-expected US consumer price report for April. The US Consumer Price Index for April rose 2.3% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of 2.4% y/y and the lowest increase in 4 years. The Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy for April rose by 2.8% y/y, unchanged from March and in line with expectations.

Additionally, a rally by chip makers on Tuesday supported the overall market on news that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices will supply semiconductors to Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence company Humain for a data center project. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department said it was rescinding President Biden’s artificial intelligence proliferation rule, and the Trump administration plans to overhaul export rules for semiconductors used in artificial intelligence, which could move toward customized deals with countries.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.4 per US dollar, hitting a seven-month high, as a sharp pullback in the US dollar drove it higher. Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico is expected to make its seventh consecutive 50 basis point rate cut on Thursday, bringing the policy differential into line, although much of this has already been factored into the price.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.30% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) Index gained 0.83%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index closed at a new record high of 23,620 on Tuesday, marking its fourth session of gains, helped by upbeat German sentiment data and a cooler-than-expected US inflation report. The ZEW Index of German economic sentiment rose to 25.2 in May, well above the expectation of 11.9, thanks to optimism about domestic stability and improved trade dynamics. European stocks rose in the previous session after the US and China eased the trade war for the next 90 days to renegotiate trade terms, which supported the macroeconomic backdrop for all sectors. The auto sector led the gains, with shares of Volkswagen, BMW, and Stellantis adding between 4.5% and 3%. Industrial companies also rose strongly, with Siemens, Airbus, and Schneider gaining 1.5%.

WTI crude prices rose to $63.8 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting their fourth consecutive high in more than a month, amid new sanctions threats against Iran and an improving outlook for global trade flows. Speaking to Saudi Arabian officials, US President Trump reiterated his threat to impose sanctions on Iranian oil unless they agree to a nuclear deal. In turn, fears of widespread economic pain eased after the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs against each other temporarily.

Silver prices rose nearly 2% to above $33 an ounce on Tuesday, recovering from losses in the previous session as initial enthusiasm over the US-China trade agreement began to wane, giving way to broader market caution.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.43%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.87%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.43%.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.648 on Wednesday, posting its second consecutive session of gains, amid dollar weakness following softer-than-expected US inflation data. Given the heavy reliance of Australian exports on China, especially commodity exports, the local currency remains highly sensitive to trade dynamics between the US and China. On the domestic front, data showed that Australia’s first-quarter wage growth exceeded expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week, continuing to support economic growth amid global uncertainty.

India’s annual inflation rate for April 2025 fell to 3.16%, the lowest since July 2019, from 3.34% in the previous month and well below market expectations of 3.3%. This brought the inflation rate even lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s average target of 4%, strengthening the case for additional rate cuts by the Central Bank.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,886.55 +42.36 (+0.72%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,140.43 −269.67 (−0.64%)

DAX (DE40) 23,638.56 +72.02 (+0.31%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,602.92 −2.06 (−0.024%)

USD Index 100.93 −0.86 (−0.85%)

News feed for: 2025.05.14

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Annual Budget Release (Tentative).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 May

Yen Edges Higher as Market Capitalises on News-Driven Rebound

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dipped to 147.61 on Wednesday as the yen gained ground following softer-than-expected US inflation data.

Key factors influencing USD/JPY movement

Recent developments in global trade also captured market attention. The US and China had earlier agreed to a temporary 90-day tariff reduction, though uncertainty lingers over future trade policy once the agreement expires.

In bilateral discussions, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Tokyo would reject any provisional trade deal with the US unless it included safeguards for the auto industry. He urged Washington to reconsider its proposed 25% tariff on Japanese car imports.

Domestic data showed Japan’s producer prices rose at an annualised rate of 4.0% in April, down from 4.2% in March – marking the slowest growth since December last year.

The Bank of Japan remains cautious in its monetary policy approach, citing persistent uncertainties in both economic activity and inflation trends.

Meanwhile, demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset remains muted as global markets focus heavily on progress in US trade negotiations with key partners.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The pair completed its third upward wave, peaking at 148.62, before entering a corrective phase
The correction target stands at 146.40, with expectations of a new upward wave toward 150.90 once the pullback concludes
This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line has exited the histogram zone and points firmly downward

H1 Chart:

The market has consolidated around 147.50, with a downward breakout extending the correction
A further decline to 146.78 is anticipated, possibly followed by a retest of 147.50 (from below) before another drop toward 146.40
A subsequent upward wave targeting 148.62 is expected
The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 20 but rising sharply towards 50

Conclusion

The yen’s modest rebound reflects a combination of dollar weakness and cautious optimism in trade talks. However, with the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment improving, further yen gains may be limited unless safe-haven demand resurges.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 May

If you really want to close the US trade deficit, try boosting innovation in rural manufacturing

By Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

President Donald Trump has long been preoccupied by the trade deficit — the gap between what the U.S. sells to the rest of the world and what it buys from it. He recently declared the issue a national emergency and used trade deficit data to calculate so-called “reciprocal tariffs” targeting nearly 100 countries. Although those specific tariffs are now on pause, Trump’s concern with the trade deficit persists.

As an economist, I know there are two basic ways for a country to reduce a trade deficit: import less or export more. While Trump has focused on the former strategy, a more productive path may lie in the latter – especially by looking at untapped opportunities in rural America.

Economists have long studied the differences between rural and urban regions. But while research shows that urban areas tend to be more technologically advanced, fast-growing and economically dynamic, economists have historically paid less attention to how regional differences affect export performance.

New research is starting to fill that gap. Economists recently found that urban businesses export significantly more than rural ones – a difference with significant implications for national trade.

The urban-rural export gap

Looking at data from the Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey as well as trade statistics from 2017 to 2020, researchers used econometric techniques to measure the urban-rural export gap. They also examined two categories of potential causes – “explained” and “unexplained.”

The first is due to differences in what economists call “endowments” – for example, a region’s digital infrastructure, its access to renewable energy and its opportunities for high-tech employment. These endowments can be observed and therefore explained.

The second is due to what economists call “structural advantage.” This refers to attributes of a region that matter for export performance but can’t be observed and, as a result, remain unexplained.

They found that most of the urban-rural export gap is due to explained differences. That means rural businesses could close the export gap if they were provided with similar endowments – meaning comparable access to renewable energy, similar digital infrastructure and analogous opportunities for high-tech employment – to their urban counterparts.

Even more strikingly, the unexplained component was negative – which means rural businesses outperform expectations given their characteristics. That suggests rural regions have significant untapped export potential.

Several factors collectively account for the urban export advantage. First, urban regions have a greater concentration of highly educated science and technology workers. Urban businesses also tend to be larger and more tech-savvy, and because they have better access to broadband, they use cloud technology more frequently. Urban areas also have more foreign-born business owners who may leverage their international networks.

However, many of these differences suggest possible policy solutions. For instance, since cloud adoption depends on broadband availability, it follows that investing in digital infrastructure could boost rural exports. Also, rural manufacturers, especially in sectors like metals manufacturing, show comparable or higher export intensity per worker than their urban counterparts. So encouraging rural manufacturing would be one way to reduce the urban-rural export gap.

Rethinking trade and rural development

I think this research has important policy implications.

First, it shifts some of the focus away from other countries as the root cause of the trade deficit. And second, it bolsters the case for what economists call “place-based policies” targeting specific geographic areas – as opposed to “people-based policies,” which provide support directly to individuals.

Even though many economists dislike place-based policies, they are increasingly attracting both academic and governmental attention.

The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act had special significance to rural areas.

During the Biden administration, three major laws – the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – directed significant federal funds to rural areas. About 43% of funds from those laws – or US$440 billion – was designated as either “rural relevant” or as “rural stipulated,” meaning the funds were either geographically targeted or designed to address disproportionately rural challenges.

Such massive investments in rural regions have led researchers and policymakers to question whether rural export underperformance stems from differences in observable endowments – in other words, things like access to broadband – or from inherent disadvantages that are much harder to deal with.

In my view, this research provides compelling evidence that much of the urban-rural export gap is due to unequal distribution of productive assets, rather than inherent rural disadvantages. With appropriate investments in digital infrastructure, human capital and support for export-capable industries, America’s rural regions could play a much larger role in global trade. These findings also suggest the value of continued federal support for rural development efforts.

In other words, if the U.S. wants to shrink its trade deficit, one answer could be more innovation in rural manufacturing.

About the Author:

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Distinguished Professor, Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, & Interim Head, Department of Sustainability, Rochester Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 May

The US and China announced massive tariff cuts. Oil prices jumped to a 2-week high

By JustMarkets

The US stocks soared yesterday after the US and China announced massive tariff cuts for 90 days following trade talks. The US said it would cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China would cut duties on US imports from 125% to 10%. At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 3.26%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.81%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 4.35%. Technology stocks rose strongly, with Apple (+6.3%), Nvidia (+5.4%), Amazon (+8.1%), Meta (+7.9%), Alphabet (+3.4%), and Tesla (+6.7%). On the other hand, pharmaceutical stocks declined after Trump said he would sign an executive order to lower prescription drug prices.

Traders will be watching inflation data closely today, looking for signs of how the new tariff regime could affect prices. If the inflation data matches market expectations, it will likely have a moderately negative impact on the dollar. However, an unexpected jump in inflation could be a driver for the Dollar Index while adding pressure to stock markets. The scenario of accelerating inflation amid stagnant or declining GDP raises the risk of recession.

The Canadian dollar slipped below 1.4 per US dollar, retreating from the strongest level since October at 1.378, recorded on May 6. A rebound in the US dollar, driven by a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China, has attracted fresh capital into dollar assets, boosting the US dollar and pressuring the Loonie into broad-based appreciation. Domestically, Friday’s jobs report, which showed disappointing job growth along with a rise in the unemployment rate, dampened expectations of further policy tightening by the Bank of Canada, and markets cut bets on Fed policy easing, pushing US and Canadian yield spreads higher.

The Mexican peso weakened to 19.6 per dollar as the 90-day tariff truce between the US and China sparked renewed demand for US assets, strengthening the dollar’s appeal, while the Bank of Mexico is widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by another 50 basis points this Thursday. This policy easing continues to narrow the rate differential between Mexico and the Federal Reserve, reducing the attractiveness of the peso.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.37% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) Index gained 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.59%.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel on Monday, hitting a two-week high, after the US and China agreed to cut most tariffs on each other’s goods. This major trade breakthrough signaled a reduction in tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers, reducing risks to oil demand. Meanwhile, exerting a bearish influence on oil, OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increases in May and June.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.98%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.03%.

Signs of weakening demand from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, had a negative impact on the NZD. Chinese data released over the weekend showed a third consecutive monthly decline in consumer prices and the sharpest fall in producer prices in six months. On the domestic front, the currency remains under pressure amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates by 25bps later this month. The current cash rate of 3.5% is expected to fall to 2.8% by the end of the year.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is taking a cautious stance amid uncertainty over US tariff policy, according to a summary of its April 30-May 1 meeting. The prolonged persistence of high tariffs could prompt Japanese exporters to restructure operations, including shifting production to the US and rationalizing supply chains, which could hurt small and medium-sized firms, which account for 70% of employment in Japan. On the other hand, if the current economic and price outlook persists, the Bank of Japan plans to continue gradually raising interest rates while remaining flexible to changing conditions.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,844.19 +184.28 (+3.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,410.10 +1,160.72 (+2.81%)

DAX (DE40) 23,566.54 +67.22 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,604.98 +50.18 (+0.59%)

USD Index 101.79 +1.45 (+1.45%)

News feed for: 2025.05.13

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 May

US Dollar Roars Back in a Blaze of Glory as Market Shrugs Off Recession Fears

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD dropped to 1.1110 on Tuesday, with the US dollar surging by over 1% in the previous trading session. The rally was driven by market reactions to news of a provisional agreement between China and the US to reduce tariffs, which helped alleviate global recession fears.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movement

Washington and Beijing have agreed to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, for 90 days.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans to meet with Chinese representatives again in the coming weeks to begin negotiations on a broader trade deal.

The tariff reductions boosted market sentiment towards the dollar, which had previously faced pressure over concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade policies were diminishing the appeal of US assets. However, market nervousness is likely to persist until the White House establishes stable trade terms with all key partners.

Attention now turns to the latest US inflation report, which may show how the new tariff policy affects prices.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD broke below 1.1190, completing the third wave of decline towards 1.1065. Today, we anticipate a corrective wave retesting 1.1190 (from below). Once this correction concludes, a new downward wave towards 1.1040 is expected. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing decisively downward.

On the H1 chart, the market has achieved the local downside target at 1.1065. Today, a potential rebound to 1.1126 is in focus. If this level is breached upwards, a further correction towards 1.1190 may follow. Subsequently, the downward trend could resume, targeting 1.1040. This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 but poised to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s resurgence reflects improved risk sentiment following the US-China tariff truce, though uncertainty lingers over long-term trade relations. Technically, EUR/USD remains under pressure, with further downside likely after a brief correction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 May

Decentralized finance is booming – and so are the security risks. My team surveyed nearly 500 crypto investors and uncovered the most common mistakes

By Mingyi Liu, Georgia Institute of Technology

When the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was proposed in 2008, the goal was simple: to create a digital currency free from banks and governments. Over time, that idea evolved into something much bigger: “decentralized finance,” or “DeFi.”

With decentralized finance, people trade, borrow and earn interest on crypto assets without relying on traditional intermediaries. DeFi services run on blockchains, which are essentially digital ledgers, and use “smart contracts” − self-executing code that automates financial transactions. Tens of billions of dollars have poured into the DeFi market.

But with innovation comes risks. The lack of centralized oversight has made crypto, including decentralized finance, a prime target for hackers and scammers. In 2024 alone, people lost nearly US$1.5 billion due to security exploits and fraud. And unlike traditional finance, there’s usually no way to recover stolen crypto.

As a computer scientist, I wanted to better understand how people perceive and respond to these risks. So my colleagues and I first conducted in-depth interviews with 14 crypto investors, then surveyed nearly 500 others to validate our findings.

Our study found that people often made the same mistakes, driven by recurring misconceptions and gaps in security awareness. Here are some of the most important.

Mistake 1: Thinking the blockchain guarantees security

Many people told us they thought decentralized finance was secure – but their reasoning wasn’t very convincing. Some seemed to confuse decentralized finance with blockchain technology itself, which is designed to ensure transactions are tamper-resistant through so-called “consensus mechanisms.” One told us that DeFi is secure “because a hacker would have to override an entire blockchain” to steal funds.

But services on the blockchain are still vulnerable to implementation and design flaws. These include smart contract breaches, in which bad guys exploit bugs in a service’s code, and front-end attacks, where a user interface is altered to redirect funds into a hacker’s wallet. A front-end attack was reportedly to blame for a recent $1.5 billion crypto heist.

CNBC reports on the record-breaking $1.5 billion crypto theft.

Mistake 2: Thinking safe keys mean safe funds

Another common misconception is that DeFi is secure if private keys are well stored. A private key is a secret code that allows someone to access their crypto assets. It’s true that in DeFi – unlike in centralized crypto finance where an exchange holds private keys – users have full control over their own private keys.

But even with perfect private key management, users can still lose funds by interacting with compromised DeFi platforms. That’s because safeguarding private keys can prevent only direct attacks targeting private key access, such as phishing attempts.

The people we spoke with also failed to follow best practices for securing their private keys. Using a hardware wallet – a physical device that stores private keys offline – is one of the most secure options for protecting keys from online threats. However, our study found that only a handful of participants actually used hardware wallets.

Mistake 3: Thinking 2-factor authentication is a silver bullet

Two-factor authentication, or 2FA, is a standard security mechanism in which two forms of verification are required to access an account. Think being texted a one-time code before you can log into your bank account.

To prevent account breaches, centralized crypto exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase use two-factor authentication for logins, account recovery and withdrawal confirmations. But while 2FA is crucial to security in the traditional and centralized crypto finance system, it plays a much smaller role in decentralized finance.

DeFi wallets give users access based on private key ownership rather than identity verification, which means traditional 2FA can’t be used. Instead, only 2FA-like mechanisms are available in DeFi. For instance, multisignature wallets require approval from multiple private key holders. However, if your private key is compromised, attackers can perform wallet operations on your behalf without any additional verification. In addition, even users who adopt 2FA-like measures can’t prevent the security breaches on the DeFi services’ end.

Unfortunately, our participants were overly confident regarding the effectiveness of 2FA, with one saying, “Two-factor authentication has been one of the best solutions for keeping wallets safe.” In our survey, 57.1% of users relied on 2FA as their only technical countermeasure against rug pulls – scams where project creators suddenly withdraw funds – and 49.3% did so for smart contract exploits. This misplaced trust could lead them to ignore more effective security strategies.

Mistake 4: Not managing token approvals

One such effective strategy is revoking token approvals. In DeFi, tokens are digital assets on a blockchain that represent value or rights, and users often need to approve smart contracts to access or spend them. But if you leave these approvals open, a malicious contract – or one that’s been hacked – can drain your wallet. So it’s crucial to routinely check all token approvals you’ve granted to prevent losses caused by fraudulent or hacked DeFi services. Specifically, you should limit spending allowances instead of using the default “unlimited” option, and revoke approvals for apps you no longer use or trust.

Worryingly, we found that only 10.8% and 16.3% of participants regularly checked and revoked token approvals to protect against rug pulls and smart contract exploits, respectively. In light of this, we recommend that wallet providers introduce a reminder feature to prompt users to review their token approvals periodically.

Mistake 5: Not learning from past incidents

Even after they’re hacked or scammed, people often don’t do anything to improve their security practices, we found. Just 17.6% of those who reported being victims of a DeFi scam regularly checked token approvals afterward. Worse, 26% took no action at all after a scam, and 16.4% doubled down by investing even more in other DeFi services.

Surprisingly, more than half of the victims said their belief in DeFi either stayed the same or grew stronger after the incident. One user who lost $4,700 due to a rug-pull incident said, “My belief in cryptocurrency has grown stronger after that because I made good money from it.” That person added, “An opportunity to make money is something I believe in.” This suggests that DeFi users’ financial motivations can sometimes outweigh their security concerns – and, perhaps, their better judgment.

There’s no one-size-fits-all solution to DeFi security. But awareness is the first step. To stay safe, crypto investors should use hardware wallets, revoke unused token approvals and continually learn new techniques to protect themselves from evolving threats. Most importantly, they should stay rational and not let the allure of profits cloud their security practices.

About the Author:

Mingyi Liu, Ph.D. student in Computer Science, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

12 May

DAX Index at historic highs. Progress in US-China talks triggered a rise in indices on Monday

By JustMarkets

Stocks in the US traded lower on Friday afternoon as investors became more cautious ahead of trade talks between the US and China. At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.29% (for the week +0.18%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.71% (for the week +0.05%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.27% (for the week +2.07%). Sentiment briefly improved following the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and UK, but concerns remain that negotiations with China may not succeed.

On the corporate front, Pinterest rose by 5.4% amid strong ad revenue projections, while Expedia fell by 7.7%, missing expectations.

The US futures rose Monday as the US said “substantial progress” in trade talks with China after two days of negotiations in Switzerland over the weekend. The US officials highlighted a deal to reduce the trade deficit, while Chinese leaders characterized the outcome as reaching an “important consensus”. Asian stocks and European futures also rose.

In Canada, the April employment report showed a net gain of 7,400 jobs, beating expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9%, the highest level since November, underscoring the vulnerability of the tariff-prone manufacturing sector. Market odds suggest the odds of a rate cut in June are more than even, after the Bank of Canada noted high levels of household debt and hedge fund activity at bond auctions in its Financial System Review.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.63% (up +1.54% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.64% higher (+0.10% for the week), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.48% (+0.34% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.27% (+0.68% for the week). On Friday, the Frankfurt DAX Index rose by 0.6%, surpassing the 23,500 mark and reaching a new all-time high, continuing Thursday’s gains and following the dynamics of global markets. The rise was driven by the US-UK trade agreement, which reinforced expectations of progress in a broader US-EU agreement.

Norway’s annualized consumer inflation rate eased to 2.5% in April 2025 from 2.6% in the previous month, matching market expectations. This marked the second consecutive month of slowing inflation.

Ukrainian and European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12. The leaders threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with new “massive” sanctions if he did not comply.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.8% to hit $61 a barrel on Friday, posting a weekly gain of more than 4%, as easing trade tensions between the US and China boosted market sentiment. Optimism was fueled by news that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China’s vice premier in Switzerland on May 10, signaling possible progress in resolving trade disputes.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 3.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.24%. Asian markets jumped at the open on Monday. The rally followed a significant rise in US futures amid signs of progress in trade talks between the US and China over the weekend. Investor sentiment was further boosted by easing geopolitical tensions, including a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan and Ukrainian President Zelensky’s willingness to meet with Putin.

Chinese consumer prices in April 2025 were 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining the same pace for the second month and in line with market expectations. This is the third consecutive month of consumer price deflation, driven by the combined impact of ongoing trade tensions with the US, weak domestic demand, and continued employment uncertainty. China’s producer prices in April 2025 came in at 2.7% y/y, slightly short of the market consensus expecting 2.6% y/y, following 2.5% y/y in March. It was the 31st consecutive month of producer price deflation and the sharpest pace since last October.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.642 on Monday and rose for the second consecutive session as progress in US-China trade talks over the weekend boosted risk appetite. Markets now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the money rate to 3.1% by the end of the year, down from previous expectations of 2.85%. The RBA is expected to cut the rate again by 25 basis points at its meeting next week.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,659.91 −4.03 (−0.071%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,249.38 −119.07 (−0.29%)

DAX (DE40) 23,499.32 +146.63 (+0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,554.80 +23.19 (+0.27%)

USD Index 100.42 −0.22 (−0.21%)

News feed for: 2025.05.12

US Federal Monthly Budget Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 May

Markets rally on 90-day US-China trade truce

By ForexTime

Risk-on returns on China-US trade truce
Both sides announce 115% reduction in tariffs for 90-days
Global equities, USDInd, Bitcoin and Oil rally
Gold tumbles almost 3%, JPY & CHF weaken
US500: US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.9% & ↓ 2.0% over past year

Investors sprinted toward riskier assets on Monday after China and the United States agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.

After positive talks over the weekends, both sides announced a massive 115% reduction in tariffs, representing a major step toward de-escalating a trade war.

China will lower tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%.
The United States will cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%.

In response to the risk-on mood, Asian equities surged, European markets opened higher, while US futures flashed green.

FXTM’s USDInd jumped over 1%.
Bitcoin pushed beyond $105,000.
Crude oil rallied more than 2%.

Safe-haven assets took a beating as

Gold shed almost 3%.
The Yen and Swiss franc fell against all G10 currencies.

This breakthrough in the China and US talks has uplifted market sentiment and eased fears around a global recession.

Further signs of progress within this 90-day window could spell more gains for stock markets. However, if talks stall down the road or tensions return – risk assets will be in the firing line.

Beyond US-China trade developments, it’s a week packed with more key data and earnings from the largest Chinese companies.

The likes of JD.com, Tencent and Alibaba will publish their latest quarterly results which may influence FXTM’s CHINAH index.

On the data front, the CPI report is likely to impact Fed expectations, resulting in more volatility for US equities, USDInd and gold prices.

Speaking of equities, FXTM’s US500 has punched above key resistance at 5800.

The incoming CPI report and speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell could determine whether this resistance is conquered.

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 2.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A solid breakout and daily close above 5800 may encourage an incline toward 5880.
Should prices remain below 5800, this may trigger a sell-off toward 5715.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

12 May

Gold Drops to 3,273 USD as Markets Await Trade Deal Developments

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of a troy ounce of gold fell to 3,273 USD on Monday, losing about 1% compared to the previous session’s level.

Key factors driving gold’s movement

The primary reason for the decline is positive signals regarding trade talks between the US and China, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets.

Negotiations between representatives of the two countries concluded over the weekend, and the results offer some grounds for optimism. Beijing announced plans to initiate formal talks, while Washington reported progress towards an agreement.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he could provide further details at a full briefing on Monday. Today’s developments are expected to generate significant market reactions.

Geopolitically, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan remained in place until Sunday, despite mutual accusations of violations shortly after its conclusion.

Earlier, additional pressure on gold came from statements made by the Federal Reserve. The regulator warned of rising inflation and risks within the labour market. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of a pre-emptive rate cut in response to tariff threats.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the 3,322 level. Today, we expect a possible decline to 3,195. After reaching this target, a correction to the 3,255 level is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the local target of 3,070 may follow. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below the zero level and is pointed decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has broken below the 3,290 level and continues to move towards 3,235. This target level will likely be reached today. A corrective move towards the 3,322 level cannot be ruled out. Subsequently, a decline to at least 3,200 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator; its signal line is below the 80 level and is directed steadily downwards towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid improving trade sentiment and hawkish commentary from the Fed, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Traders will be closely watching today’s briefing for any new market-moving details.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

11 May

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,043 contracts) with the British Pound (5,276 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,571 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (740 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-43,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,440 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,353 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,612 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-659 contracts), Bitcoin (-550 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

Highlighting the data in the currency speculator positions is a weakening US Dollar trend while the other major currencies are seeing stronger weekly speculator positions and trends.

The US Dollar index has been in an overall bearish position for three consecutive weeks as the USD Index positions have fallen in 8 out of the last 11 weeks for a total decline of over -17,000 contracts in that time period. This has dropped the speculator positioning to the most bearish level since December 2024. The USD Index speculator strength score, a measure of the current spec level compared to its past 3-year range, is currently at just a 4.4% score and underscores how weak the currency has become in speculator sentiment.

Weak Start to 2025 for the U.S. Dollar

The USD Index exchange rate has had a very weak start to 2025 as it has fallen approximately 9% since the beginning of the year. The American currency Index currently sits at the important psychological level of 100.00 and how the currency navigates this level can determine where things go as the 100 level has acted as strong support or resistance many times in the past, including in 2023 and 2024. The USD Index has recently fallen below its 200-week moving average and has now been under this level for multiple weeks for the first time since 2021.

Euro, GBP, Yen and Peso bullish bets

The Euro, the British Pound Sterling, the Mexican Peso and the Japanese Yen currently all have bullish speculator contract standings against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen bets have been on a tear in the past few months with speculator bets rising in 13 out of the past 16 weeks for a total gain of +206,270 contracts in that period. The Yen speculator positions, however, did dip a little bit this week and came down from the all-time record high of last week at just under +180,000 bullish contracts.

The Euro and the British pound sterling contracts have also been steadily building higher bullish positions over the past few months with current levels at +75,719 contracts and +29,235 contracts, respectively. The Mexican Peso positions have been trending up as well as it has risen for three consecutive weeks and now the Mexican Peso speculator position is at its highest level since July of 2024 at +68,555 contracts.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar contracts have all been in bearish positions but have been improving week to week from their lowest bearish levels in the first quarter of 2025.

Biggest Change of the Week: BRL

The outlier change this week was the Brazilian Real which saw speculator bets fall by over -43,000 contracts this week. This sharp decline was following four straight weeks of gains that had boosted the overall bullish position to the highest level on record last week. This week’s reduction basically cut the Brazilian real speculator position in third and it now sits currently around +25,000 net contracts. The Brazilian Real’s exchange rate against the Dollar this week rose slightly and gained for a fourth consecutive week. Overall, the Real is about ten percent higher vs the USD since the start of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (64 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.8 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (99.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (100.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (59.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (100.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (24.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-12 percent) and the British Pound (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-17.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-67.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	27.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.1	20.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-1,108	2,486	-1,378
– Gross Longs:	21,251	9,682	2,559
– Gross Shorts:	22,359	7,196	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	99.0	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	20.6	-25.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	55.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.8	5.6
– Net Position:	75,719	-131,339	55,620
– Gross Longs:	194,192	405,535	97,040
– Gross Shorts:	118,473	536,874	41,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-10.6	46.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	28.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.2	13.1
– Net Position:	29,235	-34,736	5,501
– Gross Longs:	94,384	57,797	31,693
– Gross Shorts:	65,149	92,533	26,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	47.6	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.3	-1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 176,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	28.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	81.6	5.5
– Net Position:	176,859	-200,612	23,753
– Gross Longs:	204,008	105,878	44,435
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	306,490	20,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-16.4	30.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	74.1	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	39.4	19.1
– Net Position:	-23,574	24,432	-858
– Gross Longs:	5,558	52,272	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	29,132	27,840	13,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	39.3	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-35.3	32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	52.2	11.7
– Net Position:	-70,645	76,469	-5,824
– Gross Longs:	16,677	209,571	24,048
– Gross Shorts:	87,322	133,102	29,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	46.0	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-27.0	13.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	66.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	39.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-48,372	49,713	-1,341
– Gross Longs:	26,243	121,539	22,896
– Gross Shorts:	74,615	71,826	24,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	59.6	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-19.4	9.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-23,135	22,830	305
– Gross Longs:	10,188	45,115	4,533
– Gross Shorts:	33,323	22,285	4,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.5	20.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.9	27.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	81.8	2.9
– Net Position:	68,555	-69,687	1,132
– Gross Longs:	86,615	34,566	4,872
– Gross Shorts:	18,060	104,253	3,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.5	26.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	58.1	1.1
– Net Position:	24,961	-27,927	2,966
– Gross Longs:	61,099	23,965	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	36,138	51,892	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	34.2	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.0	7.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.4	1.6	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,781	1,541	240
– Gross Longs:	22,936	1,982	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	24,717	441	1,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	100.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.6	65.9	16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

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