InvestMacro

EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await Signals of a Renewed Trade War

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Apr

“Liberation Day”: How markets might react to Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement?

By ForexTime

Trump set to announce “reciprocal” tariffs on Wednesday, April 2^nd.
Markets fear worst-case scenario: average US tariff hiked to 35%
Higher tariffs may lead to US stagflation: revived inflation, slower economic growth
Tariff shocker could see US dollar and stock indexes fall, gold soars
Less-than-feared tariffs could see US dollar and stocks rebound

This Wednesday, US President Donald Trump is set to upend global trade with “reciprocal” tariffs.

Here we break down what traders and investors need to know ahead of such a pivotal announcement.

When will Trump announce “reciprocal” tariffs?

President Trump is set to announce his next batch of tariffs on Wednesday, April 2^nd at 4:00 PM EST / 8:00PM GMT.

POTUS has even labelled April 2^nd as “Liberation Day” in a social media post on March 20^th:

Imagen

What do “reciprocal” tariffs mean?

As the word suggests, the US is likely looking to charge its trade partners the same tariffs as they charge the US.

This suggests “an eye for an eye” type of approach.

However, it may not be that straightforward.

When deciding the revised % tax rate to “reciprocate” with, the US administration may also incorporate the cost of non-tariff barriers, such as:

– regulations

– other taxes such as VAT charged domestically in other countries

– even currency exchange (forex/FX rates)

In other words, it’s hard to predict what the final % number will be, prior to the April 2^nd announcement.

Wait, hasn’t Trump already announced tariffs this year?

Yes.

Since his second inauguration on January 20^th, 2025, President Trump has imposed:

– 20% tax on all Chinese goods (10% in February, doubled in March)

– 25% tax on most imports from Canada and Mexico (delayed until April)

– 25% tax on steel and aluminum (imposed on March 12^th)

– 25% tax on auto imports (starting on April 3^rd with fully assembled imported vehicles; scope of taxable goods to be expanded in early May)

But the April 2^nd announcement is the next “big one”, with potentially larger and broader tariffs to be announced.

Hence, the palpable tensions leading up to this mid-week announcement.

Markets have been especially volatile in recent weeks, with traders and investors guessing what Trump’s next tariff salvo would actually entail.

Even the S&P 500 dipped into a “technical correction”, TWICE, in March 2025!

Why is Trump doing this?

As a overall goal, Trump is looking to “fix” the trade imbalances between the US and its trading partners.

With these tariffs, Trump intends to:

– revive manufacturing jobs in the US

– raising revenue for the government

– align the policies of foreign governments with his administration’s goals

Who might be targeted?

In short, it’s not yet clear.

We know that President Trump has often targeted major trading partners, including China, the EU, Canada and Mexico.

However, recent weeks have seen various government officials, including Trump himself, use varying terms to describe which countries are set to be on the receiving end of these “reciprocal tariffs”.

These include phrases like “all countries”, to “country-specific”, to “15% of all countries”, and even “dirty 15”.

Just for context, it’s estimated that 15 countries accounted for over 75% of all US imports in 2024.

This “dirty 15” list may include:

– China

– Mexico

– Vietnam

– Ireland

– Germany

– Taiwan

– Japan

– South Korea

– Canada

– India

– Thailand

– Italy

– Switzerland

– Malaysia

– Indonesia

What’s the worst-case scenario?

As a catch-all headline number …

Bloomberg economists predict that the “maximum” damage could raise the average US tariff to 35%!

That would be 28 percentage points higher from the mid-single digit average at present (as of March 2025, after taking into account the already-imposed tariffs so far in Trump’s second term as POTUS).

For reference, when President Trump kicked off his second term, the average US tariff rate was around 2.5%.

Why are markets concerned?

Overall, Trump’s next tariff salvo may well be the most protectionist move by the US government in about a century (since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930)!

Higher US tariffs could actually reignite US inflation, while slowing down its economic growth.

According to a model by the Federal Reserve, US GDP could be negatively impacted by 4%, while lifting inflation by 2.5% over the next 2-3 years.

This points to a “stagflation”!

Furthermore, a slowdown in the world’s largest economy is bound to weigh down the global economy in tandem.

But wait, there could be more tariffs ahead!

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on March 31^st that President Trump may look to also impose sector-specific duties further down the line.

These could impact imports of:

– copper

– pharmaceuticals

– semiconductors

– lumber

However, these sectoral duties are apparently not the main focus on April 2^nd.

How might markets react to the April 2^nd announcement?

If Trump confirms the market’s “worst case” scenario, we could see:

– US assets FALLING (e.g. US500, US30, NAS100, US dollar etc.)
This would be based on the notion that US economic growth will be impacted negatively from these hiked tariffs.

– Safe havens SOAR (e.g. gold, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc) and even potential gains for some non-USD currencies (such as the British Pound, with the UK seemingly not front-and-center in Trump’s tariff cross-hairs)

However, if President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs package prove to be not-as-bad-as-feared, that could see:

– US assets REBOUND (e.g. US500, US30, NAS100, US dollar etc.)
This would be based on the notion that the tariffs’ impact on US economic growth would be less severe.

– Safe havens DIP (e.g. gold, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc) and even potential declines for some non-USD currencies (such as the British Pound) which have climbed as money flowed away from the US dollar in recent weeks.

Although uncertainty is running high leading up to the announcement, one thing is for sure …

Wednesday, April 2nd 2025 is set to be a big day for governments, businesses, investors, and traders around the world

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Apr

The RBA expectedly kept interest rates unchanged. Oil rose to a one-month high

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.00%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 0.02%. Investors remain on edge, facing growing concerns about economic growth amid escalating trade tensions. Uncertainty over trade policy impacted sentiment after Trump announced broader tariffs than previously expected, including a 25% tax on all non-US manufactured vehicles that will take effect on April 2. The market anxiety caused traders to turn their attention to defensive assets.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.44 per US dollar, retreating from a one-month high of 1.426 reached on March 26, amid rising trade tensions and the looming threat of US tariffs. This aggressive US stance risks undermining Canada’s trade surplus as it potentially negates the benefits of the 2018 trade agreement. In anticipation of further complications, including possible retaliatory measures from the Canadian government, and amid weak GDP data and narrowing yield differentials driven by expectations of a looser Bank of Canada policy, market participants recalibrated risk in an environment where the trade conflict shows no signs of immediate de-escalation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.58%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.31%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.88%. Uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs contributed to the negative sentiment. Meanwhile, a preliminary estimate of German consumer price inflation fell to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest since November 2024, in line with market expectations. On the corporate front, stocks of automakers, banks, and technology companies saw the biggest declines.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $71.6 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains for the second straight session and near the highest level in more than a month, amid concerns over possible supply disruptions following US President Donald Trump’s latest threats against Russia and Iran. Trump has vowed to impose secondary tariffs of 25-50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine by putting pressure on key importers such as India and China. He also threatened Iran with secondary tariffs and bombing until it signs an agreement to give up nuclear weapons.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) sharply fell by 4.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.31% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.74%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the monetary rate unchanged at 4.1% at its April meeting, leaving borrowing costs unchanged after a 25 basis point cut at its February meeting, in line with market expectations. The board noted that monetary policy is well-placed to respond to international developments should they have a material impact on Australian activity and inflation.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March 2025 from February’s 50.8 and beat expectations of 51.1, the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating thanks to a steady increase in new orders amid improving demand conditions.

The Bank of Japan Tankan Index, which measures sentiment among large manufacturers, fell to 12 points in the first quarter of 2025 from 14 in the previous quarter, the lowest in a year, as concerns over US tariffs dampened sentiment. The decline adds uncertainty to the outlook for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could affect the timing of further policy adjustments.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,611.85 +30.91 (+0.55%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,001.76 +417.86 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 22,163.49 −298.03 (−1.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,582.81 −76.04 (−0.88%)

USD Index 104.17 +0.13 (+0.12%)

News feed for: 2025.04.01

Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3)
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Mar

World stock indices sell off under the weight of new tariffs

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.69% (for the week -1.41%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.97% (for the week -2.40%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 2.61% (for the week -3.79%). Stocks in the US fell sharply on Friday amid growing concerns about inflation and trade policy uncertainty. Technology giants led the decline, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta down more than 4% each and Microsoft down 3%. Worries about inflation intensified after the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment data for March showed the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 2.8% in February, exceeding expectations, and consumer spending rose by 0.4%. Investors expected further trade shocks as Trump’s 25% tariff on automobiles takes effect this week, raising fears of retaliation from key trading partners.

Bank of America expects a challenging reporting season, projecting a 1% decline in first-quarter revenue, down three percentage points from the previous quarter and 3% below consensus estimates.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.43 per US dollar amid rising trade tensions and weak GDP data weighing on the Loonie. Concerns stem from the prospect of additional US tariffs on Canadian auto parts and related exports. Measures could extend to key sectors such as auto components, raw materials, and lumber. Adding to this uncertainty, Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that Canada is prepared to take retaliatory trade measures, adding to the trade conflict. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy — amid preliminary data on likely stagnant GDP growth in February — has led to expectations of looser monetary policy compared to the US Federal Reserve, further narrowing the yield differential.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.96% (for the week -2.66%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.93% (for the week -2.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.84% (for the week -0.89%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.08% (for the week +0.14%). European equities closed lower on Friday, continuing to be impacted by concerns over global economic growth following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement and less-than-encouraging US economic data, including PCE Core Price Index data. Inflation data in Spain and France showed weaker-than-expected results, with French inflation holding steady at 0.9% and Spanish inflation falling to 2.2%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.8% on Friday to hit $69.4 per barrel, on concerns that ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and key trading partners, could trigger a global recession. Despite this, oil prices recorded their third consecutive weekly gain, helped by US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. The US crude stockpile data showed a 3.3 million barrel decline, indicating continued strong demand. The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will begin a gradual increase in production in April, and reports suggest the group is likely to continue raising output in May.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.16%. The Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) fell nearly 4% on Monday to its lowest level in six months, as investors reacted to weakness on Wall Street and prepared for new US tariffs that will take effect this week. President Donald Trump is set to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars, a major blow to Japan’s key auto export sector, and outlined plans for retaliatory trade duties. Domestically, investors digested mixed economic data, with industrial production in February beating expectations and retail sales falling short of projections. All sectors declined, with sharp losses in the technology, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors.

South Korea, China, and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to promote regional trade as the three Asian export powers suffer from tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. The dialogue aims to strengthen the implementation of the RCEP, in which all three countries are participating, and create a framework for enhanced trade cooperation among the three countries.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,580.94 −112.37 (−1.97%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,583.90 −715.80 (−1.69%)

DAX (DE40) 22,461.52 −217.22 (−0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,658.85 −7.27 (−0.08%)

USD Index 104.01 −0.32 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2025.03.31

Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.7	4.7	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	31.9	8.5
– Net Position:	7,468	-7,945	477
– Gross Longs:	22,699	1,385	2,953
– Gross Shorts:	15,231	9,330	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.4	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	55.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	70.8	7.0
– Net Position:	65,525	-100,316	34,791
– Gross Longs:	189,796	375,753	81,743
– Gross Shorts:	124,271	476,069	46,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	47.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-47.8	23.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	25.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	52.0	13.5
– Net Position:	44,283	-50,682	6,399
– Gross Longs:	109,016	48,843	32,226
– Gross Shorts:	64,733	99,525	25,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.7	41.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	30.6	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	75.3	11.4
– Net Position:	125,376	-135,740	10,364
– Gross Longs:	160,474	92,999	44,965
– Gross Shorts:	35,098	228,739	34,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	3.9	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-19.7	-8.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	82.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	28.8	22.2
– Net Position:	-37,593	46,102	-8,509
– Gross Longs:	4,178	70,830	10,519
– Gross Shorts:	41,771	24,728	19,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	74.6	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-12.5	27.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	33.6	12.5
– Net Position:	-129,534	140,196	-10,662
– Gross Longs:	17,948	234,774	24,617
– Gross Shorts:	147,482	94,578	35,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	73.8	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-9.2	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	66.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	20.6	15.7
– Net Position:	-77,446	82,329	-4,883
– Gross Longs:	28,124	119,381	23,317
– Gross Shorts:	105,570	37,052	28,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.0	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	7.1	-0.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	78.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	26.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,567	42,865	-1,298
– Gross Longs:	13,435	64,617	4,082
– Gross Shorts:	55,002	21,752	5,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	82.3	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-9.6	9.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.1	28.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	70.7	3.4
– Net Position:	59,039	-58,694	-345
– Gross Longs:	89,477	38,556	4,376
– Gross Shorts:	30,438	97,250	4,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	44.0	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-23.3	12.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.2	27.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	66.0	1.2
– Net Position:	40,349	-42,553	2,204
– Gross Longs:	70,030	29,411	3,556
– Gross Shorts:	29,681	71,964	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	9.0	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	-38.7	10.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.0	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	7.2	4.3
– Net Position:	1,179	-1,150	-29
– Gross Longs:	24,376	945	1,207
– Gross Shorts:	23,197	2,095	1,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	34.7	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-36.3	-6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Live Cattle, Steel & Silver lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to be at the top of the extremes list and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 22.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 125,376 net contracts (just below the recent record high) this week with a bump up by 2,412 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position registered 117,987 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 14,562 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,771 net contracts this week with a dip by -635 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,950 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.4 this week.

The speculator position was 40,349 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -372 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at just a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,900,087 net contracts this week with a small gain of 5,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.0 this week. The speculator position was -54,006 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,702 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,278 net contracts this week with a drop by -17,071 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.1 this week. The speculator position was -82,548 net contracts this week with a reduction of -6,069 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 16.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.0 this week. The speculator position was -41,567 net contracts this week with a decline by -1,123 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

30 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (8,912 contracts) with Palladium (190 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-8,136 contracts), Platinum (-6,949 contracts), Silver (-1,348 contracts) and Steel (-635 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (94 percent) and Silver (93 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (75 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) and Platinum (48 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.2 percent)
Silver (93.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.9 percent)
Copper (65.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.7 percent)
Platinum (48.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (42.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.7 percent)
Steel (93.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-13 percent) and Gold (-13 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-16.9 percent)
Silver (14.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.1 percent)
Copper (12.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.1 percent)
Platinum (-28.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (3.6 percent)
Palladium (-13.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.8 percent)
Steel (4.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 249,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	17.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	71.4	4.7
– Net Position:	249,796	-278,598	28,802
– Gross Longs:	316,572	86,838	52,852
– Gross Shorts:	66,776	365,436	24,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	22.0	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	11.3	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	19.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	66.6	7.2
– Net Position:	60,950	-80,705	19,755
– Gross Longs:	85,712	32,304	31,951
– Gross Shorts:	24,762	113,009	12,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	5.1	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.8	5.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	28.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	41.8	6.7
– Net Position:	34,104	-34,530	426
– Gross Longs:	106,085	70,815	17,306
– Gross Shorts:	71,981	105,345	16,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	40.7	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-8.4	-21.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	22.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	47.4	4.7
– Net Position:	13,558	-20,060	6,502
– Gross Longs:	48,416	18,154	10,285
– Gross Shorts:	34,858	38,214	3,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	48.0	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	19.1	57.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	44.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	8.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,309	7,420	889
– Gross Longs:	8,436	9,082	2,300
– Gross Shorts:	16,745	1,662	1,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	53.9	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.6	-1.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	59.8	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	69.1	0.4
– Net Position:	3,771	-3,869	98
– Gross Longs:	13,822	24,720	248
– Gross Shorts:	10,051	28,589	150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.9	6.8	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.9	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

30 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (71,284 contracts) with the Fed Funds (51,474 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (38,970 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,792 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (5,853 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,557 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-91,338 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-25,159 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-24,765 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (70.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (55.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (61.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (25.8 percent)

Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-28.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-23.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-26.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 51,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	62.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	58.4	1.6
– Net Position:	-114,010	91,500	22,510
– Gross Longs:	444,359	1,370,828	57,033
– Gross Shorts:	558,369	1,279,328	34,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	58.7	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-22.0	23.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -759,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -91,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -667,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	60.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	52.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-759,223	759,086	137
– Gross Longs:	1,324,572	6,048,322	27,119
– Gross Shorts:	2,083,795	5,289,236	26,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	78.9	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.9	-5.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	56.7	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	51.8	1.2
– Net Position:	-52,693	68,457	-15,764
– Gross Longs:	421,808	800,792	1,048
– Gross Shorts:	474,501	732,335	16,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	48.4	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	26.8	-34.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,181,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	75.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	47.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,181,586	1,059,722	121,864
– Gross Longs:	517,534	2,917,884	239,053
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,120	1,858,162	117,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.6	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-10.7	4.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,900,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,905,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	55.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-1,900,087	1,717,094	182,993
– Gross Longs:	461,359	5,232,111	432,646
– Gross Shorts:	2,361,446	3,515,017	249,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	90.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-2.8	17.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -810,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 71,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -881,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	75.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	61.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-810,090	707,115	102,975
– Gross Longs:	631,125	3,715,581	453,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,441,215	3,008,466	350,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	65.3	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	0.9	14.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -84,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	73.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	67.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-84,487	122,219	-37,732
– Gross Longs:	374,731	1,672,115	219,960
– Gross Shorts:	459,218	1,549,896	257,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	10.4	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-4.5	8.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	75.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-38,275	-60,775	99,050
– Gross Longs:	260,000	1,312,743	227,483
– Gross Shorts:	298,275	1,373,518	128,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	21.3	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.1	16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.9	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	70.1	8.4
– Net Position:	-232,366	193,573	38,793
– Gross Longs:	144,083	1,442,525	188,846
– Gross Shorts:	376,449	1,248,952	150,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	2.4	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-9.5	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

30 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (20,240 contracts) with Live Cattle (14,562 contracts), Coffee (2,322 contracts) and Cocoa (1,808 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,005 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,071 contracts), Soybean Oil (-13,515 contracts), Soybeans (-6,133 contracts), Wheat (-6,069 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,203 contracts) and Cotton (-4,702 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (95 percent) and Coffee (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent), Soybean Meal (7 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (60.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.8 percent)
Sugar (27.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (82.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (94.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.6 percent)
Cotton (4.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.8 percent)
Cocoa (28.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.8 percent)
Wheat (11.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (25 percent) and Live Cattle (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and are the only markets with positive scores.

Soybean Oil (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-34 percent), Corn (-29 percent) and Wheat (-21 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.0 percent)
Sugar (25.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (-5.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.3 percent)
Soybeans (-5.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-43.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-34.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-12.9 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-33.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.9 percent)
Cotton (-7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-19.3 percent)
Wheat (-21.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 200,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	42.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	50.2	10.4
– Net Position:	200,371	-140,438	-59,933
– Gross Longs:	416,135	783,975	131,205
– Gross Shorts:	215,764	924,413	191,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	42.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	26.8	30.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	50.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	58.2	6.0
– Net Position:	52,042	-72,763	20,721
– Gross Longs:	211,369	450,055	74,523
– Gross Shorts:	159,327	522,818	53,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	70.9	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-24.8	17.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	34.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	69.4	3.9
– Net Position:	58,452	-61,242	2,790
– Gross Longs:	70,947	60,843	9,622
– Gross Shorts:	12,495	122,085	6,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	18.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.6	-11.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	54.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	49.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-14,410	42,137	-27,727
– Gross Longs:	161,713	467,444	41,401
– Gross Shorts:	176,123	425,307	69,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	4.9	6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	54.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	50.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-23,349	24,882	-1,533
– Gross Longs:	117,284	325,973	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	140,633	301,091	29,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	75.2	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.0	44.5	-44.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	51.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	45.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-49,278	31,359	17,919
– Gross Longs:	100,370	294,361	49,052
– Gross Shorts:	149,648	263,002	31,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	90.1	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	14.2	-2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 117,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	27.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.8	13.8
– Net Position:	117,987	-94,564	-23,423
– Gross Longs:	193,964	109,347	31,975
– Gross Shorts:	75,977	203,911	55,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	7.2	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-7.6	5.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	47.8	7.8
– Net Position:	29,389	-26,988	-2,401
– Gross Longs:	90,491	101,431	18,590
– Gross Shorts:	61,102	128,419	20,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	47.7	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.8	34.6	19.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	52.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	33.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-54,006	53,793	213
– Gross Longs:	65,048	148,238	13,921
– Gross Shorts:	119,054	94,445	13,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	95.5	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	8.3	-19.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	65.2	6.0
– Net Position:	18,278	-21,738	3,460
– Gross Longs:	28,864	45,771	9,683
– Gross Shorts:	10,586	67,509	6,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	71.7	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.6	-30.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	36.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	19.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-82,548	79,370	3,178
– Gross Longs:	121,763	170,090	36,009
– Gross Shorts:	204,311	90,720	32,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.5	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	20.1	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led this week by Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 stock index with a small rise of 540 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-121,673 contracts), the VIX (-15,159 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-14,307 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-5,479 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,137 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,180 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and Russell-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (86.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (75.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (74.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.1 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (25 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (44.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (48.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (17.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	41.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	40.9	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,991	2,843	6,148
– Gross Longs:	79,034	128,546	27,278
– Gross Shorts:	88,025	125,703	21,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	10.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.4	-43.4	5.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -121,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	72.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-53,362	-33,837	87,199
– Gross Longs:	263,754	1,496,022	251,247
– Gross Shorts:	317,116	1,529,859	164,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	29.8	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	11.9	-17.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	63.5	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	59.9	14.0
– Net Position:	-4,206	2,646	1,560
– Gross Longs:	8,894	47,272	11,996
– Gross Shorts:	13,100	44,626	10,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	42.1	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	14.4	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	52.6	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	63.2	12.0
– Net Position:	8,689	-23,883	15,194
– Gross Longs:	61,767	117,916	42,020
– Gross Shorts:	53,078	141,799	26,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	27.9	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	-1.1	11.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	73.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	70.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-15,345	9,457	5,888
– Gross Longs:	63,721	291,919	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	79,066	282,462	22,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.7	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-6.6	-17.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	69.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-121	-46	167
– Gross Longs:	1,068	9,952	2,817
– Gross Shorts:	1,189	9,998	2,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	26.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-18.4	-5.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	85.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-12,023	3,540	8,483
– Gross Longs:	45,965	359,985	13,278
– Gross Shorts:	57,988	356,445	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	30.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	7.0	22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

This Wednesday, US President Donald Trump is set to upend global trade with “reciprocal” tariffs.

When will Trump announce “reciprocal” tariffs?

What do “reciprocal” tariffs mean?

Wait, hasn’t Trump already announced tariffs this year?

But the April 2nd announcement is the next “big one”, with potentially larger and broader tariffs to be announced.

Why is Trump doing this?

Who might be targeted?

What’s the worst-case scenario?

Bloomberg economists predict that the “maximum” damage could raise the average US tariff to 35%!

Why are markets concerned?

This points to a “stagflation”!

But wait, there could be more tariffs ahead!

How might markets react to the April 2nd announcement?

Wednesday, April 2nd 2025 is set to be a big day for governments, businesses, investors, and traders around the world

News feed for: 2025.04.01

News feed for: 2025.03.31

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Live Cattle

Steel

Silver

Brazil Real

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

Cotton

Soybean Meal

Wheat

New Zealand Dollar

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

But the April 2^nd announcement is the next “big one”, with potentially larger and broader tariffs to be announced.

How might markets react to the April 2^nd announcement?