InvestMacro

Metals Charts: COT Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,334 contracts) with Palladium (927 contracts) and Steel (148 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-821 contracts), Silver (-691 contracts) and Platinum (-452 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (29 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.2 percent)
Silver (78.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (53.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.3 percent)
Platinum (38.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (29.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (80.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.5 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have negative trends currently.

Platinum (-10 percent) and Copper (-12 percent) have the least negative trends this week while Gold (-33.2 percent) has the most negative trend at the moment.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-33.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-35.9 percent)
Silver (-14.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.6 percent)
Copper (-11.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.4 percent)
Platinum (-9.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-24.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.2 percent)
Steel (-13.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-17.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 162,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of -821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	19.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.7	5.1
– Net Position:	162,497	-192,103	29,606
– Gross Longs:	237,445	87,244	52,632
– Gross Shorts:	74,948	279,347	23,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	53.2	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	31.2	3.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	22.9	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	71.3	6.5
– Net Position:	49,252	-67,803	18,551
– Gross Longs:	70,335	32,146	27,737
– Gross Shorts:	21,083	99,949	9,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.4	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.3	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	43.5	6.6
– Net Position:	21,703	-22,355	652
– Gross Longs:	71,777	61,510	13,342
– Gross Shorts:	50,074	83,865	12,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	51.2	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.5	1.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	24.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	42.0	5.3
– Net Position:	9,510	-14,040	4,530
– Gross Longs:	44,605	18,742	8,637
– Gross Shorts:	35,095	32,782	4,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	13.5	-30.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	51.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.1	7.6	7.2
– Net Position:	-9,991	9,512	479
– Gross Longs:	6,396	11,158	2,026
– Gross Shorts:	16,387	1,646	1,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	69.8	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	16.0	-18.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	62.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	64.4	0.8
– Net Position:	806	-744	-62
– Gross Longs:	10,534	21,095	218
– Gross Shorts:	9,728	21,839	280
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	21.4	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by SOFR 3-Month & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 11,313 contracts for the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-172,797 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-81,631 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-14,416 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13,381 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-10,233 contracts), the Fed Funds (-8,245 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3,952 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (73 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (34.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (78.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (63.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (0 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-72 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-18 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (10.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-71.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-48.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-20.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (11.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (2.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -115,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	67.5	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	62.0	1.7
– Net Position:	-115,965	103,159	12,806
– Gross Longs:	313,631	1,265,461	45,399
– Gross Shorts:	429,596	1,162,302	32,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	60.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	2.1	-12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -738,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -565,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	61.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	54.1	0.3
– Net Position:	-738,403	735,570	2,833
– Gross Longs:	1,195,710	6,541,847	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	1,934,113	5,806,277	32,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	77.6	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.2	1.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	63.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	62.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-8,091	10,503	-2,412
– Gross Longs:	198,034	721,268	283
– Gross Shorts:	206,125	710,765	2,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	34.1	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-14.2	35.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,220,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,206,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	52.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,220,793	1,073,415	147,378
– Gross Longs:	549,885	3,219,754	256,003
– Gross Shorts:	1,770,678	2,146,339	108,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.7	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	1.1	8.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,296,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,292,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	82.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	53.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,296,496	2,066,750	229,746
– Gross Longs:	603,900	5,833,463	461,099
– Gross Shorts:	2,900,396	3,766,713	231,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	19.5	10.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -953,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -81,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -871,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	78.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	62.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-953,168	812,188	140,980
– Gross Longs:	468,266	3,936,983	458,736
– Gross Shorts:	1,421,434	3,124,795	317,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.2	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	12.8	11.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -283,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -221,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	63.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-283,697	323,389	-39,692
– Gross Longs:	286,185	1,769,437	216,393
– Gross Shorts:	569,882	1,446,048	256,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	89.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.9	79.3	-1.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	75.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-95,789	-2,704	98,493
– Gross Longs:	187,829	1,361,393	230,957
– Gross Shorts:	283,618	1,364,097	132,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	38.2	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	16.9	-0.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -264,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -251,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	70.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-264,775	239,311	25,464
– Gross Longs:	123,949	1,565,107	177,814
– Gross Shorts:	388,724	1,325,796	152,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	31.5	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	18.1	-17.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat & Live Cattle this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (9,271 contracts) with Live Cattle (5,601 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,644 contracts), Cotton (1,662 contracts) and Coffee (52 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-59,530 contracts), Soybeans (-10,088 contracts), Sugar (-16,325 contracts), Soybean Meal (-221 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,260 contracts) and with Cocoa (-441 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (86 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (74 percent), Soybeans (63 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Wheat (6 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.7 percent)
Sugar (17.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.0 percent)
Coffee (73.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.6 percent)
Soybeans (63.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (80.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.4 percent)
Live Cattle (85.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.8 percent)
Cotton (31.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.6 percent)
Cocoa (27.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.7 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (50 percent) and Cotton (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (16 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-11 percent), Live Cattle (-9 percent) and Sugar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.6 percent)
Sugar (-9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.2 percent)
Coffee (-8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.6 percent)
Soybeans (16.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-1.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.2 percent)
Cotton (26.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-17.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-27.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -59,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	45.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	50.1	11.0
– Net Position:	115,899	-75,297	-40,602
– Gross Longs:	376,617	701,110	129,869
– Gross Shorts:	260,718	776,407	170,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	49.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	9.2	22.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	55.5	8.2
– Net Position:	22,440	-18,002	-4,438
– Gross Longs:	196,150	424,216	61,109
– Gross Shorts:	173,710	442,218	65,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	85.7	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.8	-34.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	36.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	70.4	4.0
– Net Position:	49,341	-51,788	2,447
– Gross Longs:	59,594	56,913	8,598
– Gross Shorts:	10,253	108,701	6,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	27.6	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.0	-5.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	50.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	54.4	8.0
– Net Position:	49,385	-30,958	-18,427
– Gross Longs:	177,646	392,063	43,458
– Gross Shorts:	128,261	423,021	61,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	35.7	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-19.7	24.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	45.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.7	4.4
– Net Position:	66,905	-75,639	8,734
– Gross Longs:	155,811	262,712	33,834
– Gross Shorts:	88,906	338,351	25,100
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	23.0	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.9	-51.3	41.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	50.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	44.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-53,955	33,912	20,043
– Gross Longs:	119,134	285,863	49,215
– Gross Shorts:	173,089	251,951	29,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	91.2	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.0	11.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 108,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	27.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.7	13.5
– Net Position:	108,631	-84,943	-23,688
– Gross Longs:	185,603	105,351	27,847
– Gross Shorts:	76,972	190,294	51,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	18.8	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	11.7	-0.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	48.5	8.2
– Net Position:	37,501	-34,963	-2,538
– Gross Longs:	100,650	95,588	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	63,149	130,551	22,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	40.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.8	-0.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	47.1	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-10,076	13,137	-3,061
– Gross Longs:	64,851	103,419	10,468
– Gross Shorts:	74,927	90,282	13,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	72.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-23.3	-22.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	40.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.5	5.7
– Net Position:	16,911	-21,174	4,263
– Gross Longs:	27,028	36,520	9,402
– Gross Shorts:	10,117	57,694	5,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	72.3	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	8.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	38.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.9	16.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-107,537	101,506	6,031
– Gross Longs:	119,875	176,106	36,682
– Gross Shorts:	227,412	74,600	30,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	94.0	90.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	16.3	15.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (6,703 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,840 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,261 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,984 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (246 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the Russell-Mini with a drop of -14,422 contracts on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (90 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (83.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent), the VIX (17 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (17.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-26.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (37.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	43.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.4	8.4
– Net Position:	10,943	-13,545	2,602
– Gross Longs:	71,127	121,604	25,910
– Gross Shorts:	60,184	135,149	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.5	-19.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	72.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-76,405	40,182	36,223
– Gross Longs:	251,351	1,579,940	237,311
– Gross Shorts:	327,756	1,539,758	201,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	40.9	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	11.1	-20.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	63.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.7	14.8
– Net Position:	5,795	-3,505	-2,290
– Gross Longs:	12,694	48,033	8,949
– Gross Shorts:	6,899	51,538	11,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	33.2	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-8.9	-23.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.4	15.9
– Net Position:	32,847	-22,754	-10,093
– Gross Longs:	85,091	135,792	31,046
– Gross Shorts:	52,244	158,546	41,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	29.1	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	1.2	-48.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	73.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.6	6.1
– Net Position:	-14,828	18,843	-4,015
– Gross Longs:	75,021	331,976	23,509
– Gross Shorts:	89,849	313,133	27,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	35.5	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	5.8	-28.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.3	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	88.8	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,592	-2,617	7,209
– Gross Longs:	42,076	411,014	11,942
– Gross Shorts:	46,668	413,631	4,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	23.1	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-7.4	-6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 May

Speculator Extremes: Brent, VIX, 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 15.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,495 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 17.0 this week. The speculator position registered 10,943 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 6,703 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The JPY speculator level resides at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase of 14.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 176,859 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,353 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an advance by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 37.0 this week.

The speculator position was 32,847 net contracts this week with a change of 1,984 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,296,496 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,952 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -30.0 this week. The speculator position was -31,610 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,576 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,108 net contracts this week with a decrease of -659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -107,537 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -65.0 this week. The speculator position was -1,781 net contracts this week with a dip lower by -550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

09 May

Week Ahead: Dollar ready to flex its muscles?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2.5% from 2025 low
US-China trade talks over weekend could rock USD
US CPI + data dump + Powell Speech = more USD volatility?
US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 1.0% over past year
Technical levels: 102.20, 100.00 & 99.20

The United States has struck a “breakthrough” deal with the United Kingdom, marking the first trade agreement since Trump announced sweeping tariffs last month.

And this has left markets buzzing with anticipation ahead of US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend.

Beyond global trade developments, high-impact data, including the latest US CPI, corporate earnings and speeches by policymakers will be in focus:

Saturday, 10th May

CN50: China PPI, CPI
USDInd: US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Monday, 12th May

JP225: Japan current account
MXN: Mexico industrial production
EUR: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

Tuesday, 13th May

CHINAH: JD.com earnings
AUD: Australia consumer, business confidence
GER40: Germany ZEW survey
ZAR: South Africa unemployment
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: US April CPI, Trump visits Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates

Wednesday, 14th May

CHINAH: Tencent earnings
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan PPI
US500: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

Thursday, 15th May

CHINAH: Alibaba earnings
AUD: Australia unemployment
CAD: Canada existing home sales, housing starts
EU50: Eurozone GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand food prices
UK100: UK GDP, industrial production
US30: Walmart earnings.
USDInd: US retail sales, PPI, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, jobless claims, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 16th May

JP225: Japan GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand Business, NZ manufacturing PMI
US500: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, import prices

FXTM’s USDInd is under the spotlight after securing a solid daily close above the psychological 100.00 level.

The USDInd tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The dollar has appreciated against most currencies this week thanks to Powell’s hawkish tone and easing trade tensions.

Another major move could be brewing for the USDInd and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Over the weekend, US and Chinese officials will engage in talks to de-escalate trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

According to reports, the Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction to temper economic pain and soothe tensions. However, China has adopted a more defensive approach toward trade talks, reiterating its call for the US to cancel unilateral tariffs.

Should the talks end on a positive note and open doors to further negotiations, the dollar could rally as US recession fears cool.
If the talks end on a sour note and result in fresh trade uncertainty, the dollar may weaken as US recession fears mount.

2) US April CPI report

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Tuesday 13th May could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2024 vs. April 2025) to remain unchanged at 2.4%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.8%
CPI month-on-month (April 2025 vs March 2025) to rise 0.3% from -0.1% in the prior month
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDInd higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecast, this may drag the USDInd lower.

3) US data dump + Powell speech

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and industrial production among other data releases, to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches by various Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide fresh clues on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data print above forecasts and Fed speakers strike a hawkish note, this could boost the USDInd.
Soft US economic data and dovish-sounding Fed officials may weigh on the USDInd.

4) Technical forces

The USDInd could be gearing up for further upside but this will depend on whether the 100.00 level proves to be reliable support. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA and respecting a bullish channel.

Should 100.00 prove reliable support, prices may venture toward the 50-day SMA at 102.20 and 103.60.
Weakness below 100.00 may encourage a decline back towards 99.20 and 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 May

The US and UK signed a trade agreement. China’s trade balance data pleased investors

By JustMarkets

US stocks continued to rise on Thursday as expectations of tariff cuts from major trading partners triggered a rally in US capital markets. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.62%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.58%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.98%. President Trump unveiled a trade deal with the UK that keeps existing tariffs in place but signals fewer future US export restrictions. Stocks only gained momentum after the President acknowledged the possibility of lower tariffs against China after talks that begin this weekend.

Technology stocks surged, with Tesla (TSLA) jumping more than 4% and Palantir (PLTR) soaring 7.5%, reversing yesterday’s decline. Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG) also rose, partially recovering from last session’s decline.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) strengthened to 19.50 per US dollar, again nearing a six-month-high, as Consumer Price Index data supported a cautious stance on rate cuts and optimism that trade tensions are easing. Core annual inflation accelerated to 3.93% in April, slightly above expectations, while the monthly figure rose by 0.49% month-on-month, suggesting the Bank of Mexico may need to slow interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose about 9% this week, breaking the key psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since early February. Two US states passed legislation authorizing strategic bitcoin reserves. Meanwhile, the federal government confirmed that US banks can “responsibly” trade digital assets on behalf of customers and can outsource trading of digital currency and custody services to trusted third parties. These developments have reinforced the view of Bitcoin as a mature asset class.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.89%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.06%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.32%. On Thursday, European stocks held on to early gains and closed with solid gains. Most sectors rose as markets assessed recent developments in European trade and monetary policy. Sweden’s Riksbank kept its discount rate at 2.25% for May 2025, in line with expectations, citing increased global uncertainty, especially following the US trade policy shift, which has led to volatility in markets and weakened growth prospects in both the US and Europe. Norges Bank left its key rate unchanged at 4.5% at its May 2025 meeting, keeping it at a 15-year high for more than one year, in line with market expectations and Central Bank signals. Like other monetary authorities that monitor G10 currencies, Norges Bank emphasized that trade barriers imposed by the United States and other major economies are increasing uncertainty in the global macroeconomic backdrop.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 3.2% to reach $59.9 per barrel on Thursday, driven by renewed hopes of progress in upcoming trade talks between the US and China, key players in the global oil market. Lingering trade tensions between the US and China have raised concerns about a decline in global oil consumption, but signs of diplomatic engagement have helped ease market fears. At the same time, the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and the UK boosted positive sentiment.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.41%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.63%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.37%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.16%.

China’s trade surplus in April 2025 rose to US$96.18 billion from US$72.04 billion in the same period a year earlier and exceeded market expectations of US$89 billion. The sharp increase was mainly due to an 8.1% year-on-year rise in exports, well above market projections that expected a 1.9% rise, despite growth weakening from 12.4% in March as shipments to the US were weakened by Trump’s tariffs.

The New Zealand dollar fell as low as 0.588 US dollars on Friday, extending losses for a third straight session and hitting its lowest level in more than three weeks. The kiwi came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Britain, which he called “the first of many.” It also raised hopes for progress in talks between the US and China in Switzerland over the weekend.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,663.94 +32.66 (+0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,368.45 +254.48 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40) 23,352.69 +236.73 (+1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,531.61 −27.72 (−0.32%)

USD Index 100.64 +1.02 (+1.03%)

News feed for: 2025.05.09

China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:40 (GMT+3);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 May

Can Fed rate decision extend US stocks’ rebound?

By ForexTime

Fed widely expected to leave US rates unchanged
Markets fully anticipate next Fed rate cut in July; 1-in-3 chance of June cut
Hints of earlier-than-expected rate cut could send US stock indices soaring
Risk assets may pare recent gains if Chair Powell pushes back on rate cuts
See below for past and projected post-Fed reactions for US500, NAS100, US30

The Fed is set to dominate the market’s attention overnight.

To be clear, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is widely expected to keep its benchmark rates unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%.

Given its forward-looking nature, markets are already trying to anticipate the outcomes of FOMC meetings in the months ahead.

Here’s what markets currently predict:

June: 1-in-3 chance (33.7%)
July: 25-basis point rate cut fully priced in!

Of course, those odds could drastically change in the days, weeks, and months ahead, not just depending on what the Fed tells us this week.

The chances of a Fed rate cut may also depend heavily on whether US President Donald Trump’s tariffs further weaken US economic growth, forcing the Fed into a sooner-than-expected rate cut.

NOTE: The FOMC lowers interest rates in order to shore up economic growth.

What to look out for today (Wednesday, May 7th)?

Markets will be combing through the:

FOMC policy statement released at 6:00PM GMT on Wednesday, May 7th, along with …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (due 30 minutes after the FOMC statement).

Both the FOMC statement and Powell’s spoken words will be scrutinized for clues about the timing of the next Fed rate cut.

Judging by recent commentary, Fed officials appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, in assessing the tariffs’ impact on inflation and growth in the world’s largest economy.

After all, recent weeks have shown that tariffs can be announced, and then retracted, seemingly at POTUS’s whims and fancy.

The ongoing narrative is that …

If US tariffs are kept at elevated levels for longer, the greater the potential damage on the US economy.

And given that this week’s FOMC meeting also comes amid the 90-day pause on some of the harshest tariffs, the Fed may be inclined to maintain this wait-and-see approach, without jolting markets in the interim.

Also note that, at this week’s meeting, the Fed will not be releasing a new dot plot (forecasts by each FOMC member on US interest rate levels in the future), nor fresh economic projections.

Hence, any incoming policy signals, if any, are set to stem from the FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference.

How might US stock indices react to today’s Fed meeting?

BULLISH: Should Chair Powell and his FOMC colleagues sound “dovish” and start paving the way for rate cuts, that should cheer on risk assets that sends US stock indices higher.
BEARISH: If Chair Powell and his FOMC colleagues instead strike a “hawkish” tone, suggesting that US interest rates could stay higher for longer to quell any tariff-induced spikes to US inflation, that could force US stock indices to pare its stunning rebound since early April.

Here’s what markets predict these major US stock indices could react in the 6 hours after today’s FOMC decision:

S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500) could:

rise by as much as 1.4%
fall by as much as 1.6

Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100) could:

rise/fall by as much as 1.9%

Dow Jones Industrial Average (tracked by FXTM’s US30) could:

rise as much as 1.1%
fall by as much as 1.7%

How have US stock indices reacted to recent Fed meetings?

These Fed rate decisions of course hold tremendous sway over markets.

Here’s a sample of the “biggest” reactions by major US stock indices within 6 hours of Fed decisions from the past 12 months:

S&P 500 (US500)

rose as much as 1.7% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 3% (Dec 2024)

Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)

rose as much as 2.35% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 3.5% (Dec 2024)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)

rose as much as 1.2% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 2.7% (Dec 2024)

Over the next 12 months …

Wall Street still predicts double-digit potential gains for US stock indices by this time next year.

Here are the projections for 12-month potential upside for 3 major US stock indices:

S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500 index): 16%
(S&P 500 to cross above 6500 by this time next year)
Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100 index): 18%
(Nasdaq 100 to cross above 23,300 by this time next year)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (tracked by FXTM’s US30 index): 14%
(Dow to cross above 46,700 by this time next year)

Looking at the price charts …

Widely-followed simple moving averages (SMA) stand in the way of bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) of these stock indexes, and could act as immediate resistance levels post-FOMC meeting:

200-day SMA potential immediate resistance for the US500

US500: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: Greater prospects of a mid-year Fed rate cut could send the US500 towards its 200-day SMA / 5700 psychological level. Further north lies its 100-day SMA and 5800 target.

BEARISH: A break below its 50-day SMA could test initial support at the 5,500 round number, with its 21-day SMA and 5400 price region potentially offering stronger support.

200-day SMA potential immediate resistance for the NAS100
Imagen

NAS100: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: A break above the 200-day SMA could see the NAS100 striving for its upside target of 20,800.

BEARISH: The NAS100 may look to find support at its 50-day SMA around the 19,400 region. Further support could arrive around the 21-day SMA.

50-day SMA immediate resistance for the US30

US30: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: A break above the 50-day SMA could see the US30 striving for its immediate upside target of 41,800. Further north, the price region around its 200-day SMA / 42,500 level / 100-day SMA could lend stronger resistance to bulls.

BEARISH: A second consecutive daily close below the 41k mark for the US30 could see prices faltering to the big, round 40,000 number, where its 21-day SMA also currently lies.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

07 May

Oil prices rose to 60 dollars per barrel. PBoC lowered reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 50 bps

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.95%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.77%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.88%. The US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investor sentiment deteriorated amid mixed trade signals. President Trump’s wavering stance on trade — he said “we don’t have to sign deals” — contradicts recent optimism from Treasury officials and dampens hopes for tariff relief. Diplomatic tensions also rose after a sharp exchange with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said “Canada is not for sale,” prompting Trump to respond, “Never say never.”

The US trade deficit widened to $140.5 billion in March 2025, hitting a new record high, compared with expectations of a $137 billion deficit. Imports jumped 4.4% to a record $419 billion in anticipation of new tariff announcements in April.

Technology stocks weakened, with Meta down 1.8% and Tesla down 1.7% on disappointing European sales. Palantir Technologies fell by 12% after results fell short of investor expectations, while Ford rose 2.4%, even after warning that tariffs could cut the company’s 2025 earnings by about $2.5 billion.

The US Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting in May 2025, as policymakers take into account slowing inflation amid a still-resilient labor market and increased uncertainty over trade policy.

Canada’s trade deficit in March 2025 was CAD 0.51 billion, down from the CAD 1.41 billion deficit recorded in February. The improvement came amid a sharper decline in imports compared to exports, driven by retaliatory tariffs by Ottawa in response to new US duties, as well as a voluntary boycott of US goods by Canadian retailers and households.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 0.01%. European stocks closed modestly lower on Tuesday, capping off the rally of the past four weeks, as markets digested earnings reports, political setbacks, and continued to assess how economic uncertainty is affecting corporate orders. German conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor in the second round of voting in Germany’s Bundestag, but the first vote unexpectedly ended without his election. On the corporate front, technology, retail, and pharmaceutical stocks were among the top losers.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $60 a barrel on Wednesday, extending their gains of more than 3% from the previous session, helped by signs of lower production in the US and rising demand in Europe and China. Adding to the upbeat sentiment were reports that US and Chinese officials will meet this week, boosting hopes of easing tensions between the two biggest oil consumers. In addition, API data showed a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories, with a 4.5 million barrel drop last week, exceeding the expected 2.5 million barrel decline.

The US natural gas futures rose to $3.6/MMBtu on Tuesday after declining 2.2% in the previous session, helped by lower production and record LNG exports. Production fell about 4.8 Bcf/d to a seven-week low of 102.6 Bcf/d on Tuesday. In addition, the US remains the world’s top LNG exporter, supported by robust international demand despite the recent slowdown in the domestic market.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.51%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.70%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.08%.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on Wednesday, which could lead to an injection of around RMB1 trillion in liquidity. This is the first RRR cut in 2025 as Beijing seeks to support economic growth amid escalating trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, the Central Bank decided to cut the rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 10 basis points to 1.40%, effective Thursday, May 8. This is the first key rate cut since September 2024 and could lead to a broader cut in rates on market and liquidity instruments.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,606.91 −43.47 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,829.00 −389.83 (−0.95%)

DAX (DE40) 23,249.65 −94.89 (−0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,597.42 +1.07 (+0.012%)

USD Index 99.19 −0.64 (−0.64%)

News feed for: 2025.05.07

New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Federal Funds Rate at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 May

Tariff policy uncertainty persists. China’s service sector shows a decline

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.24%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.64%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.67%. Markets reacted to President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs, including a 100% tax on foreign movies, but sentiment improved following stronger-than-expected ISM services sector data. Still, uncertainty remains after Trump said he has no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, causing investors to stay cautious. The energy sector led the decline, followed by the consumer discretionary and technology sectors.

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI for April 2025 rose slightly to 41.5 from 41.2 in the previous month, reflecting the fifth consecutive period of contraction in Canadian services activity at a historically high rate. While recovering slightly from March’s decline, business confidence remained historically weak amid continued uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.55%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading yesterday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged following the release of a good employment report for April. Several major companies, including Continental, Hugo Boss, BMW, Fresenius, Infineon, Puma, Heidelberg Materials, Commerzbank, Zalando, and Siemens Energy are also due to report quarterly results this week. Volkswagen, meanwhile, reaffirmed its full-year outlook, excluding the potential impact of US tariffs, after reporting a 12.4% rise in first-quarter revenue, helped by higher sales of electric vehicles.

Swiss consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year in April 2025 after rising to 0.3% y/y in March and defeating expectations for a 0.2% increase. This is the lowest rate since deflation was recorded in March 2021. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 0.6% from 0.9% in March.

WTI crude futures rose more than 1% to $58 a barrel on Tuesday, breaking a two-day decline amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port and cement factory in response to an attack by Iranian-backed Houthis with ballistic missiles that hit Israel’s main airport a day earlier.

Silver (XAG/USD) prices rose more than 1% to $32.40 per ounce on Monday, recovering from last week’s losses amid a weaker US dollar, amid lingering concerns over trade relations between the US and China. President Donald Trump has said he has no plans to speak with his Chinese counterpart this week, but has signaled a willingness to cut tariffs on Chinese imports to boost trade. Last week, China said it might consider launching trade talks with the US, but emphasized that Washington must first lift all unilateral tariffs to demonstrate sincerity of intent.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.21%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.97%.

The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025, down from March’s three-month high of 51.9 and below market expectations of 51.7, marking the lowest growth in the services sector since September last year. Business sentiment fell to the second-lowest level since data collection began in November 2005 due to concerns about the negative impact of trade policy changes.

Indonesia’s economy contracted by 0.98% QoQ in the first quarter of 2025, the first quarterly GDP contraction in a year and short of the market consensus expecting a 0.89% contraction. The decline followed a 0.53% rise in Q4, helped by a sharp contraction in government spending.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,650.38 −36.29 (−0.64%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,218.83 −98.60 (−0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 23,344.54 +257.89 (+1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,596.35 +99.55 (+1.17%)

USD Index 99.81 −0.22 (−0.22%)

News feed for: 2025.05.06

Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.